Academic literature on the topic 'Saving and investment Thailand'

Since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Thailand has become highly dependent on exports as the main engine of economic growth. In 2008, the ratio of export to GDP was about 76.5 percent. The global economic crisis triggered by the sub-prime loans debacle in the United States has prompted Thailand to rethink its high dependence on export. This paper examines the options for external and internal economic rebalancing strategies for Thailand. External rebalancing will require Thailand to rely more on regional markets and less on the Western markets for its exports. The paper examines the possibility of promoting greater intra-regional trade and Thailand's regional trade strategies. As for internal rebalancing, the paper emphasizes the need to boost domestic public and private investment in terms of both quantity and quality to narrow the current saving–investment gap, bearing in mind the need to ensure fiscal sustainability. Finally, the paper examines broader rebalancing strategies that will help Thailand to become less dependent on exports. These include the need to (1) improve productivity; (2) increase economic efficiency; (3) deepen the production structure and create new dynamic industries; and (4) generate new growth poles.

The relationship between saving and investment has been sharply debated in the literature following the pioneering work of Feldstein and Horioka (1980). This paper extends this debate to the ASEAN countries by using cointegration procedure in time-series analysis. Specifically, three analyses are conducted. First, saving and investment are tested to determine the order of integration using both the Dickey–Fuller (DF) and augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) approaches. Second, the long-run equilibrium relationship between saving and investment is explored by utilizing the cointegration tests proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990). Third, Granger–causality tests based on vector error-correction models (VECM) are undertaken to ascertain the direction of causality between the two series. The results indicate that saving and investment are integrated of order one [1(1)]. Based on the cointegration results, saving and investment are found to share long-run equilibrium association. The Granger-causality tests reveal that investment causes saving in the cases of Indonesia and Singapore. For the Philippines, causality runs from saving to investment. As for Malaysia and Thailand, the results suggest bi-directional causality between saving and investment.

In view of the up-scaling energy crises worldwide, efforts have been focusing on reducing energy consumption and replacing fossil fuels usage with renewable energy sources. Thailand is one of the developing countries that have been facing an increase in energy demand associated to its economic expansion. The development in the educational sector is one of the sectors causing an increasing energy demand.Purpose: This study aims to quantify energy usage and understand its environmental impacts in one of the educational facilities in Thailand in order to identify energy saving opportunities and improvement options related to energy consumption in this sector. Materials and Methods: The investigation included a historical energy analysis for energy utilization of the facility, an onsite energy audit and an environmental impacts assessment. A number of potential energy saving opportunities was identified; related cost savings and CO2 reduction were calculated. Additionally, the environmental impacts of energy utilization were simulated using the life cycle assessment technique. Special attention was given to potential impacts on global warming due to its direct association to fossil fuels combustion.Results and discussion: the pattern of energy utilization was identified and it clarified that the major contributor to energy utilization was energy consumption practices by students and staff of the faculty. Consequently, awareness raising of energy saving opportunities and people involvement was the major area of improvement. Results show that increasing people involvement in energy saving practices could lead to a cost saving of 46,000-120,000 USD/Year with low cost investment and a 100-240 ton CO2 reduction. Other potential savings were using motion sensors which save 30-40% of energy costs in offices and utilizing renewable solar energy as a source for electricity. This will save 13,300-33,300 USD/Year with a 7.5 years payback and 35-50 years lifetime.When assessing the associated environmental impacts to electricity production, five main categories were found to be impacted: fossil fuels depletion, respiratory inorganics formation potential, global worming potential, acidification potential and eutrophication potential. The application of the suggested energy saving opportunities will reduce the electricity consumption, lower generated air emissions from fossil fuels combustion, consequently minimize all associated impacts specially global worming potential.In Conclusion: assessing energy utilization of educational facilities is essential to reduce energy demand in an up-scaling economy. Energy analysis and onsite energy audits are efficient methods for recognizing energy utilization patterns and identifying energy saving opportunities. The implemented investigation in this study can be applied in different educational facilities.

Thailand is one of the world’s top export countries, sharing 72% of the global shipment, mainly in the agricultural and industrial products. Being a major logistics hub in ASEAN, Thai government has initiated several projects to support the transportation of people and goods. Road transportation is a major mode of goods transportation in Thailand. However, it incurs the highest logistics cost compared with water and rail modes. The use of multimode transportation is, therefore, considered to lower the logistics cost and reduce the environmental problems. This study examines the feasibility of multimodal transportation of cassava products in the long-term utilizing the system dynamics modeling approach. Six saving elements, including 1) saving in labor cost, 2) saving in fuel cost, 3) saving in carbon dioxide tax, 4) saving in truck rental cost, 5) saving in reimbursement cost, and 6) saving in accident cost, and four cost elements, including 1) handling cost, 2) tariff cost, 3) product return cost, and 4) product damaged cost, are considered in the dynamics model. The simulation results reveal that at the initial years, the net cash flow is negative due to high investments in double track system. Once the project continues, the savings increase. It is found that the project is feasible when it is continued for 10 years at the internal rate of return of 13.69%. The sensitivity analysis results also show that the saving in truck rental cost and the product damaged cost are two key elements in the multimodal transportation, as they highly affect the internal rate of return of the project. The developed dynamics model of multimodal transportation of cassava products can be used as a guideline for transportation companies and government to plan for their multimodal transportation to reduce logistic costs and achieve benefits in the long term.

Background: Understanding the public health value of a vaccine at an early stage of development helps in valuing and prioritizing the investment needed. Here we present the potential cost-effectiveness of an upcoming 12 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV 12) in the case study country, Thailand. Methods: The cost-effectiveness analysis included a hypothetical scenario of three doses (2 + 1 regimen) PCV12 introduction in the national immunization program of Thailand compared to no PCV, PCV10, and PCV13 among <6 months old from a societal perspective with a lifetime horizon and one-year cycle length. Data from Thailand, as well as assumptions supported by the literature, were used in the analysis. The price of PCV12 was assumed similar to that of PCV10 or PCV13 for GAVI’s eligible countries based on inputs from stakeholder meeting. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted using 0.5–1.5 times the base price of PCV12. Results were presented in incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of monetary value per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Results: Vaccination with PCV12 among a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 Thai children is expected to avert a total of 5358 cases which includes 5 pneumococcal meningitis, 43 pneumococcal bacteremia, 5144 all-cause pneumonia, and 166 all-cause acute otitis media compared to no vaccination. The national PCV12 vaccination program is a cost-saving strategy compared to the other three strategies. The one-way sensitivity analysis showed PCV12 is a cost-saving strategy when 1.5 times the base price of PCV12 was assumed. Conclusions: Within the limitations of hypothetical assumptions and price points incorporated, the study indicates the potential public health value of PCV12 in Thailand.

Research aims: This study focuses on the correlation between tax revenue, investment, and economic growth, taking into account the non-linear effects of tax revenue.Design/Methodology/Approach: Macro data of nine countries in ASEAN (including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) in 2000 - 2020 were extracted from the World Bank database. This research employed panel data estimations.Research findings: This study found statistical evidence of a negative effect of tax revenue on economic growth. However, when considering the non-linear effects of tax revenue, the empirical findings showed that higher tax revenue could reduce the disadvantages of tax impacts to boost economic growth. The negative effect of taxes is as obvious as the economic growth theories, but it depends on the taxation revenue. Lower tax revenue may encourage saving and investment, but it also leads to an increased government deficit, reducing economic growth through government debt, spending and investment. Moreover, this study provides consistent evidence of investment’s positive effect on economic growth in ASEAN countries during the research period.Theoretical contribution/Originality: The theoretical contribution provides evidence on the direct effect of tax revenue and investment on economic growth with a broader understanding of the tax’s non-linear effects and investment contributions in the ASEAN. The study confirms the vital role of government activity in regulating the development of the economy through taxation and investment. Practitioner/Policy implication: The severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has increased macroeconomic uncertainties, including uncertainty over savings, investment, and spending, potentially leading to tax revenue and investment losses. It, in turn, affects economic activities, so it requires careful consideration. Learned lessons from this study can prepare for future economic shocks and financial crises to reduce negative impacts on economic growth, including their adverse tax revenue effects.Research limitation: This study is limited by looking at the tax revenue ratio overview, which ignores the tax structure due to the lack of data collection. The following studies need to clarify the tax structure of ASEAN countries to determine which tax gives a negative impact/and which tax has a positive effect on economic growth.

The number of small scale buildings such as minimarts and convenience stores in Thailand has increased rapidly in the past few years. The interest of effective energy utilization has not been focused on the implementation of the new technologies due to high investment and lack of skilled workers for the maintenance. Comparing to the energy improvement results from several techniques at the present, the implementation of micro co-generation systems driven by natural gas engines to meet the energy demand of Thailands convenience stores has been proposed in this study by using Primary Energy Saving Ratio (PES) as the assessment index to evaluate the energy performance. The results also showed that PES value can be increased up to 45% due to the utilization of higher efficiencies of micro co-generation system. However, the selection of the reasonable capacity of the system depends on the characteristic of the load profile and the objective of the utilization of micro co-generation system. Furthermore, the electrical and thermal efficiencies of the micro co-generation system are important factors that cannot be ignored in an effect to enhance the performance of micro co-generation systems.

Electrical energy usage in buildings is a challenging issue because many old buildings were not originally built to achieve energy efficiency. Thus, retrofitting old buildings to net-zero buildings can benefit both the owner and electric utilities. In this study, the BEC (building energy code) software was used to evaluate energy aspects of retrofitted buildings in compliance with Thailand’s building energy code to achieve a net-zero energy building. In addition, economic aspects were also studied to verify the feasibility for a project’s owner to invest in a retrofitted existing building. An existing residential building in Thailand was used as a case study. The results in terms of energy after retrofitting existing buildings into net-zero energy buildings show that the total energy consumption can be reduced by 49.36%. From an economic perspective, the investment cost for a retrofitted building can be compensated by energy saving in terms of discounted payback period (DPP) for approximately 4.36 years and has an IRR (internal rate of return) value of 19.23%. This result evidences the potential in both energy and economy for a project’s owner to invest in a retrofitted existing building in compliance with the building code, with potential for implementation with benefits on both electrical utilities and the project’s owner.

The concept of a zero energy building is a significant sustainable strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The challenges of zero energy building (ZEB) achievement in Thailand are that the design approach to reach ZEB in office buildings is unclear and inconsistent. In addition, its implementation requires a relatively high investment cost. This study proposes a guideline for cost-optimal design to achieve the ZEB for three representative six-story office buildings in hot and humid Thailand. The energy simulations of envelope designs incorporating high-efficiency systems are carried out using eQuest and daylighting simulation using DIALux evo. The final energy consumptions meet the national ZEB target but are higher than the rooftop PV generation. To reduce such an energy gap, the ratios of building height to width are proposed. The cost-benefit of investment in ZEB projects provides IRRs ranging from 10.73 to 13.85%, with payback periods of 7.2 to 8.5 years. The energy savings from the proposed designs account for 79.2 to 81.6% of the on-site energy use. The investment of high-performance glazed-windows in the small office buildings is unprofitable (NPVs = −14.77–−46.01). These research results could help architects and engineers identify the influential parameters and significant considerations for the ZEB design. Strategies and technical support to improve energy performance in large and mid-rise buildings towards ZEB goals associated with the high investment cost need future investigations.

This article aims to explain the migration factors of the foreign population in Thailand. The migration concepts and the approach of studying the foreign population in the present Thai society found that the migration factors consisted of the need for economic security, life, good quality of life for oneself and one's own family, marriage with a foreign spouse, leisure travel, safety in life and property, seeking business opportunities, access to property and property owners, changing lifestyle, and extending savings for investment funds. As for the guidelines for studying the foreign population, there are three frameworks to consider, which include: (1) the origin, (2) the way to the destination, and (3) the destination. The origin is the study of migration decisions, factors, and objectives. The way to the destination considers the travel process, facilitating travel according to the legal system of the origin country, and labor export policies. Finally, the destination is the study of personal and official networks, relational and contact mechanisms of the community, and lifestyle of the people in the community, including the local impact of the destination country.

Ma thèse aboutit à un programme de recherche qui étudie l'investissement (et l'épargne) sous trois angles différents. Il renseigne sur 1) le comportement d'épargne des pays riches en pétrole, 2) la formation des prix et la dynamique de l'investissement sur le marché pétrolier, et 3) le rôle des rachats d'actions dans l'inhibition de l'effet positif d'une politique monétaire accommodante sur l'investissement au niveau des entreprises. Le point commun sous-jacent de ces trois axes de travail est la compréhension des facteurs qui influencent les décisions d'investissement au niveau de l'entreprise, de l'industrie ou du pays. Le premier chapitre de ma thèse, External Saving and Exhaustible Resource Extraction, aborde précisément la question de la gestion épuisable des ressources face à l'incertitude. En reliant le comportement d'extraction et d'économie dans un cadre théorique cohérent, ce chapitre contribue à deux veines de la littérature qui se sont développées séparément jusqu'à plus récemment. Le deuxième chapitre, L'effet retardateur du stockage sur l'investissement : Les données du secteur pétrolier américain continuent d'explorer le rôle de l'incertitude, mais cette fois-ci, elles analysent à la fois la dynamique des prix et celle des investissements lorsque les décisions d'investissement sont irréversibles. Le dernier chapitre de cette thèse, Rachat d'actions, politique monétaire et coût de la dette, porte sur une étude empirique des déterminants de l'investissement. Partant de la structure du capital des entreprises, cette partie de ma thèse porte sur le rôle des rachats dans le détournement de la dette à faible coût des investissements et de l'emploi
My thesis culminates into a research program that studies investment (and saving) from three different perspectives. It informs on 1) the saving behaviour of oil-rich countries, on 2) price formation and investment dynamics in the oil market, and on 3) the role of share buybacks in muting the positive effect of accommodative monetary policy on firm-level investment. The underlying common thread among these three work streams is understanding factors that mediate the investment decisions at the firm, industry, or country level. The first chapter of my thesis, External Saving and Exhaustible Resource Extraction, addresses precisely the issue of exhaustible resource management in the face of uncertainty. In linking the extraction and saving behavior under a coherent theoretical framework, this chapter contributes to two veins of the literature that have developed separately until more recently. The second chapter, The Delaying Effect of Storage on Investment: Evidence from the US Oil Sector, continues to explore the role of uncertainty but this time analyses both price and investment dynamics when investment decisions are irreversible. The last chapter of this thesis, Share Buybacks, Monetary Policy and the Cost of Debt, turns it attention to an empirical investigation of the determinants of investment. Starting from the capital structure of firms, this part of my thesis focuses on the role of repurchases in diverting low-cost debt away from investment and employment

This study of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Thailand fills a gap since no such studies exist for Thailand. After an introduction to Thailand's economy, the thesis presents a brief survey of the theories of FDI with reference to the less-developed countries. It is followed by a study of the country-wise and sector-wise pattern of FDI in Thailand. The next two chapters carry out empirical tests of the capital-intensity hypothesis and the raw-material availability hypothesis respectively. Both the hypotheses are found to be statistically acceptable in the case of Thailand. This is followed by a simple test of the tariff-jumping hypothesis which does not explain FDI in Thailand. This should be viewed with caution as only nominal rates (as opposed to effective rates of protection) are used. Then, a test of a joint hypothesis (capital intensity, raw-material availability, and tariff rates) confirms the relative prominence of the capital- intensity hypothesis. The relative wage-cost hypothesis (i.e., Thai wage-rates relative to the Japanese and West German wage-rates) is found to be statistically unacceptable in the case of Thailand. lastly, welfare effects of FDI are examined. A brief survey of the literature and a critical appraisal have been presented. So far as Thailand is concerned, the general weight of the various arguments leans to the conclusion that foreign direct investments have ameliorative effects. This conclusion is based on (i) an analytical examination of the welfare implications of Thailand's over-all pattern of FDI, (ii) a statistical analysis of the macroeconomic effects, (iii) an analysis of the environmental issues by examining the chemical properties of the products produced by foreign firms in the Chemical Sector, and (iv) a study of the desired pattern of investment in the Thai economy as envisaged in the Five Year Plans and the ex post sectoral pattern of FDI.

This thesis addresses three relevant macroeconomic issues: (i) why

Central Banks behave so cautiously compared to optimal theoretical

benchmarks, (ii) do monetary variables add information about

future Euro Area inflation to a large amount of non monetary

variables and (iii) why national saving and investment are so

correlated in OECD countries in spite of the high degree of

integration of international financial markets.

The process of innovation in the elaboration of economic theory

and statistical analysis of the data witnessed in the last thirty

years has greatly enriched the toolbox available to

macroeconomists. Two aspects of such a process are particularly

noteworthy for addressing the issues in this thesis: the

development of macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general

equilibrium models (see Woodford, 1999b for an historical

perspective) and of techniques that enable to handle large data

sets in a parsimonious and flexible manner (see Reichlin, 2002 for

an historical perspective).

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) provide the

appropriate tools to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of

policy changes. These models, by exploiting modern intertemporal

general equilibrium theory, aggregate the optimal responses of

individual as consumers and firms in order to identify the

aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms by the

restrictions imposed by optimizing individual behavior. Such a

modelling strategy, uncovering economic relationships invariant to

a change in policy regimes, provides a framework to analyze the

effects of economic policy that is robust to the Lucas'critique

(see Lucas, 1976). The early attempts of explaining business

cycles by starting from microeconomic behavior suggested that

economic policy should play no role since business cycles

reflected the efficient response of economic agents to exogenous

sources of fluctuations (see the seminal paper by Kydland and Prescott, 1982}

and, more recently, King and Rebelo, 1999). This view was challenged by

several empirical studies showing that the adjustment mechanisms

of variables at the heart of macroeconomic propagation mechanisms

like prices and wages are not well represented by efficient

responses of individual agents in frictionless economies (see, for

example, Kashyap, 1999; Cecchetti, 1986; Bils and Klenow, 2004 and Dhyne et al. 2004). Hence, macroeconomic models currently incorporate

some sources of nominal and real rigidities in the DSGE framework

and allow the study of the optimal policy reactions to inefficient

fluctuations stemming from frictions in macroeconomic propagation

mechanisms.

Against this background, the first chapter of this thesis sets up

a DSGE model in order to analyze optimal monetary policy in an

economy with sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price

adjustments. Price setters are divided in two groups: those

subject to Calvo type nominal rigidities and those able to change

their prices at each period. Sectorial heterogeneity in price

setting behavior is a relevant feature in real economies (see, for

example, Bils and Klenow, 2004 for the US and Dhyne, 2004 for the Euro

Area). Hence, neglecting it would lead to an understatement of the

heterogeneity in the transmission mechanisms of economy wide

shocks. In this framework, Aoki (2001) shows that a Central

Bank maximizing social welfare should stabilize only inflation in

the sector where prices are sticky (hereafter, core inflation).

Since complete stabilization is the only true objective of the

policymaker in Aoki (2001) and, hence, is not only desirable

but also implementable, the equilibrium real interest rate in the

economy is equal to the natural interest rate irrespective of the

degree of heterogeneity that is assumed. This would lead to

conclude that stabilizing core inflation rather than overall

inflation does not imply any observable difference in the

aggressiveness of the policy behavior. While maintaining the

assumption of sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price

adjustments, this chapter adds non negligible transaction

frictions to the model economy in Aoki (2001). As a

consequence, the social welfare maximizing monetary policymaker

faces a trade-off among the stabilization of core inflation,

economy wide output gap and the nominal interest rate. This

feature reflects the trade-offs between conflicting objectives

faced by actual policymakers. The chapter shows that the existence

of this trade-off makes the aggressiveness of the monetary policy

reaction dependent on the degree of sectorial heterogeneity in the

economy. In particular, in presence of sectorial heterogeneity in

price adjustments, Central Banks are much more likely to behave

less aggressively than in an economy where all firms face nominal

rigidities. Hence, the chapter concludes that the excessive

caution in the conduct of monetary policy shown by actual Central

Banks (see, for example, Rudebusch and Svennsson, 1999 and Sack, 2000) might not

represent a sub-optimal behavior but, on the contrary, might be

the optimal monetary policy response in presence of a relevant

sectorial dispersion in the frequency of price adjustments.

DSGE models are proving useful also in empirical applications and

recently efforts have been made to incorporate large amounts of

information in their framework (see Boivin and Giannoni, 2006). However, the

typical DSGE model still relies on a handful of variables. Partly,

this reflects the fact that, increasing the number of variables,

the specification of a plausible set of theoretical restrictions

identifying aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms

becomes cumbersome. On the other hand, several questions in

macroeconomics require the study of a large amount of variables.

Among others, two examples related to the second and third chapter

of this thesis can help to understand why. First, policymakers

analyze a large quantity of information to assess the current and

future stance of their economies and, because of model

uncertainty, do not rely on a single modelling framework.

Consequently, macroeconomic policy can be better understood if the

econometrician relies on large set of variables without imposing

too much a priori structure on the relationships governing their

evolution (see, for example, Giannone et al. 2004 and Bernanke et al. 2005).

Moreover, the process of integration of good and financial markets

implies that the source of aggregate shocks is increasingly global

requiring, in turn, the study of their propagation through cross

country links (see, among others, Forni and Reichlin, 2001 and Kose et al. 2003). A

priori, country specific behavior cannot be ruled out and many of

the homogeneity assumptions that are typically embodied in open

macroeconomic models for keeping them tractable are rejected by

the data. Summing up, in order to deal with such issues, we need

modelling frameworks able to treat a large amount of variables in

a flexible manner, i.e. without pre-committing on too many

a-priori restrictions more likely to be rejected by the data. The

large extent of comovement among wide cross sections of economic

variables suggests the existence of few common sources of

fluctuations (Forni et al. 2000 and Stock and Watson, 2002) around which

individual variables may display specific features: a shock to the

world price of oil, for example, hits oil exporters and importers

with different sign and intensity or global technological advances

can affect some countries before others (Giannone and Reichlin, 2004). Factor

models mainly rely on the identification assumption that the

dynamics of each variable can be decomposed into two orthogonal

components - common and idiosyncratic - and provide a parsimonious

tool allowing the analysis of the aggregate shocks and their

propagation mechanisms in a large cross section of variables. In

fact, while the idiosyncratic components are poorly

cross-sectionally correlated, driven by shocks specific of a

variable or a group of variables or measurement error, the common

components capture the bulk of cross-sectional correlation, and

are driven by few shocks that affect, through variable specific

factor loadings, all items in a panel of economic time series.

Focusing on the latter components allows useful insights on the

identity and propagation mechanisms of aggregate shocks underlying

a large amount of variables. The second and third chapter of this

thesis exploit this idea.

The second chapter deals with the issue whether monetary variables

help to forecast inflation in the Euro Area harmonized index of

consumer prices (HICP). Policymakers form their views on the

economic outlook by drawing on large amounts of potentially

relevant information. Indeed, the monetary policy strategy of the

European Central Bank acknowledges that many variables and models

can be informative about future Euro Area inflation. A peculiarity

of such strategy is that it assigns to monetary information the

role of providing insights for the medium - long term evolution of

prices while a wide range of alternative non monetary variables

and models are employed in order to form a view on the short term

and to cross-check the inference based on monetary information.

However, both the academic literature and the practice of the

leading Central Banks other than the ECB do not assign such a

special role to monetary variables (see Gali et al. 2004 and

references therein). Hence, the debate whether money really

provides relevant information for the inflation outlook in the

Euro Area is still open. Specifically, this chapter addresses the

issue whether money provides useful information about future

inflation beyond what contained in a large amount of non monetary

variables. It shows that a few aggregates of the data explain a

large amount of the fluctuations in a large cross section of Euro

Area variables. This allows to postulate a factor structure for

the large panel of variables at hand and to aggregate it in few

synthetic indexes that still retain the salient features of the

large cross section. The database is split in two big blocks of

variables: non monetary (baseline) and monetary variables. Results

show that baseline variables provide a satisfactory predictive

performance improving on the best univariate benchmarks in the

period 1997 - 2005 at all horizons between 6 and 36 months.

Remarkably, monetary variables provide a sensible improvement on

the performance of baseline variables at horizons above two years.

However, the analysis of the evolution of the forecast errors

reveals that most of the gains obtained relative to univariate

benchmarks of non forecastability with baseline and monetary

variables are realized in the first part of the prediction sample

up to the end of 2002, which casts doubts on the current

forecastability of inflation in the Euro Area.

The third chapter is based on a joint work with Domenico Giannone

and gives empirical foundation to the general equilibrium

explanation of the Feldstein - Horioka puzzle. Feldstein and Horioka (1980) found

that domestic saving and investment in OECD countries strongly

comove, contrary to the idea that high capital mobility should

allow countries to seek the highest returns in global financial

markets and, hence, imply a correlation among national saving and

investment closer to zero than one. Moreover, capital mobility has

strongly increased since the publication of Feldstein - Horioka's

seminal paper while the association between saving and investment

does not seem to comparably decrease. Through general equilibrium

mechanisms, the presence of global shocks might rationalize the

correlation between saving and investment. In fact, global shocks,

affecting all countries, tend to create imbalance on global

capital markets causing offsetting movements in the global

interest rate and can generate the observed correlation across

national saving and investment rates. However, previous empirical

studies (see Ventura, 2003) that have controlled for the effects

of global shocks in the context of saving-investment regressions

failed to give empirical foundation to this explanation. We show

that previous studies have neglected the fact that global shocks

may propagate heterogeneously across countries, failing to

properly isolate components of saving and investment that are

affected by non pervasive shocks. We propose a novel factor

augmented panel regression methodology that allows to isolate

idiosyncratic sources of fluctuations under the assumption of

heterogenous transmission mechanisms of global shocks. Remarkably,

by applying our methodology, the association between domestic

saving and investment decreases considerably over time,

consistently with the observed increase in international capital

mobility. In particular, in the last 25 years the correlation

between saving and investment disappears.

Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Worldwide, drowning is the third leading cause of death among children. In Asia it is the first leading cause of death and a major public health threat. The objective of this paper was to develop a drowning prevention program including swimming training, CPR and lifesaving methods for children and to evaluate it. This intervention was provided and evaluated in Thailand where drowning is the first leading cause of death among children. The study used observations, quantitative and qualitative methods. In total 20 children in the age of seven to ten, from Nan Province in northern Thailand were participating.The result of this intervention is that the children are highly capable to learn swimming, CPR and lifesaving activities within 10 days. Out of 20 participants all have successfully completed the swimming, CPR and lifesaving programs.The conclusion of this intervention study can be sum up by both the interventions result, the questionnaires and the independent evaluators is that swimming program as this one is highly needed for saving lives. Support from the local as well as the central authority is also needed. Therefore such swimming program shows the importance of swimming knowledge and water security to prevent drowning in near future.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between private saving and investment for South Africa using a Vector Error Correction Framework. Saving and investment are considered to be important factors for sustainable economic growth in the country, particularly as these variables have been recorded at significantly lower levels than those of other developing nations. By examining the direction of causality between saving and investment, the most suitable policy measures can be used in stimulating either savings or investment, and as a result aggregate growth. The study found a positive two-way causality to exist between these two variables, proving that both saving and investment-led policies are necessary in raising saving and investment levels. With the inclusion of credit extension as the third variable used to remove any variable bias, the study not only found credit extension to Granger cause private saving, but the reverse relationship was found to be present as well. This relationship was however found to be negative, confirming that lower borrowing constraints may have a negative effect on saving levels. The negative relationship between credit supply and private saving (substitution effect) proves that credit supply will only yield a positive result for savings if channelled through investment expenditure.

This thesis presents an empirical investigation of the relationship between exporting, foreign direct investment (FDI) and firm heterogeneity in Thailand using a firm-level data from the Annual Survey of Thailand’s manufacturing industry between 2001 and 2004. We first examine the factors affecting the export participation decision of a firm by emphasising the importance of sunk entry costs, structure of ownership and other firm-specific characteristics. If a firm has export experience, the probability of exporting is likely to increase in the current period. Other firm-specific characteristics such as ownership, productivity, firm size, training and establishment location also significantly determine the probability of exporting. Second, we consider the role of the financial factors and the export participation decision. The internal finance of a firm as a measure of financial health is used to explain the capability to invest in order to enter export markets. The liquidity ratio has a positive and significant effect on the probability of exporting whilst the leverage ratio has the opposite effect. Third, we make a distinction between single- and multi-product firms and examine the characteristics associated with a multi-product firm. Being a multi-product firm and the number of products produced are associated with various firm-specific characteristics such as productivity, firm size and research and development (R&D). Finally, we emphasise on an indirect impact of FDI inflows in the host economy by investigating spillover effects from foreign to domestic firms. The positive and significant results for horizontal productivity spillovers and vertical export spillovers confirm that foreign firms do generate some positive externalities to domestically-owned firms.

The purpose of this research paper is to try to clarify and evaluate trade and investment relation of Thailand and Czech Republic in order to understand the situation of both countries and to identify core problem in order to find solution and develop trade and investment relation between both countries. This paper starts by examining the historical background, country profile and macro economic circumstance, then goes on to diagnosis part which comprise with external diagnosis and internal diagnosis. I use PEST analysis and SWOT analysis as tools to diagnose problem.The conclusion I reached is that trade between Czech Republic and Thailand is growing well but investment lags behind. There are many reasons as economic, politic or even public relation. The major problem that influence to trade, investment and other sections of economy is the political instability.

Abstract Arsenic (As) and Mercury (Hg) are impurities unique to condensate produced from reservoir in the Gulf of Thailand and thus, the treatment process is critical to meet PTTEP's sale obligation. Mercury has been successfully removed by filtration, but no proven technology exists for arsenic removal until now. Normally, there are 3 condensate tankers to transfer offloading condensate to Petrochemical plant. In case any batch of condensate is rejected by customer. Trader is generally required at least 2 weeks to manage the tanker holding the high As condensate. Thus, the business impact of this project is cost saving from reducing the frequency of tanker demurrage. The major financial ramification is a key driver for exploring the alternative treatment techniques for As removal. Several techniques to remove As content in condensate have been explored and tested to find a suitable solution to this major challenge. Several technologies were tested in-house, and solid bed adsorption is found to be the most effective with approximately 90% removal efficiency. The scaled-up unit is developed for pilot test with operating conditions designed to simulate actual site conditions for further large-scale development. The Arsenic Removal Mobile Unit is designed for a capacity of 4,670 BPD located at the Condensate Tank Terminal prior to installation at offshore facilities. Basic engineering was performed in-house by PTTEP according to adsorbent specifications with modular fabrication for flexibility of installation and relocation. Detailed engineering and construction were performed by contractor under PTTEP supervision. The engineering and procurement of long lead equipment were performed by PTTEP. Furthermore, in parallel, the engineering team are also performed to provide a basis design facility, plan & schedule for installing a permanent arsenic removal unit at Offshore locations (Full-scale). This test result will prove the performance of selected adsorbent and how the adsorbent reacts with actual condensate in full scale. PTTEP is the only company who have been studied about arsenic removal technology from condensate. This initiative has been carried through from preliminary conception to prototype field trials for practical application with an ambitious end-goal of commercialization. The success of this project will provide confidence for large-scale ARU investment to support the condensate management strategy. The expected benefit gain is saving revenue loss of each relevant party. Once this unit is installed at offshore. It will unlock field potential and increase operating flexibility. For downstream industry, it will reduce the adverse impact on downstream petrochemical plants. The service life of catalyst can be prolonged and reduce a toxicity risk to personnel. The high arsenic contaminated in disposal water shall be resolved.