Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Risk of change'
To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: Risk of change.
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 dissertations / theses for your research on the topic 'Risk of change.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse dissertations / theses on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Vadeboncoeur, Nathan Noel. "Knowing climate change : modelling, understanding, and managing risk." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/50777.
Full textAbstract:
Climate change is a complex problem. Approaches to understanding climate change risk and preparing for its management include assessments of biophysical changes, the influence of public risk perceptions on support for policies aimed at adapting to these changes, and analysis of the governance structures charged with developing and implementing climate action plans. Climate change issues, however, are often approached from a disciplinary perspective and there are few studies examining how climate risk is viewed from multiple perspectives in a particular locale. This thesis takes a bottom-up approach to understanding climate change by focusing on how climate risk is understood on the Sunshine Coast, British Columbia, as a biophysical, social, and governance issue. It begins by surveying the available biophysical information of climate change and presents a sea level rise impact model for the Sunshine Coast. Next, it explores how public perceptions of climate risk (as distinct from climate change knowledge as scientific literacy) develop and how these affect support for climate change policies. It then examines the perspective of a local government, the Town of Gibsons, in planning for climate change adaptation. Here, it focuses on how decision- makers plan for climate change by examining their perspectives on biophysical risks and the social context within which climate issues are located. Throughout the thesis, I argue that the process of adapting to climate change (a risk management strategy) has strongly social roots and that understanding how climate change fits within the context of individual communities is, along with knowledge of biophysical hazards, an essential component of adaptation.Science, Faculty of
Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES), Institute for
Graduate
2
Kühl, Jesper J. "Microeconomic studies on risk, poverty and climate change /." Copenhagen, 2005. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/489052436.pdf.
Full text
3
Gibbons, Judith L., and Katelyn E. Poelker. "At-Risk Latin American Youth: Challenges to Change." Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2017. http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/99937.
Full textAbstract:
Fostering the well-being of Latin American and Caribbean youth is vital to the region’s success. Despite their significant presence in the population, many youth face extraordinary challenges, such as poverty, exposure to violence, and lack of access to quality education. We review some successful interventions from an ecological perspective that address the needs of at-risk youth in the region. Interventions in a variety of countries have been aimed at altering the microsystems or ecosystems of youth as well as involving them directly. Direct interventions with youth must involve them in meaningful activities that provide a sense of empowerment. The lessons learned from these interventions reveal the outstanding potential of youth to thrive despite the obstacles they face.Fomentar el bienestar de los jóvenes de Latinoamérica y el Caribe es vital para lograr el éxito en la región. A pesar de que tienen una presencia significativa en la población, muchos jóvenes enfrentan desafíos extraordinarios, tales como la pobreza, la exposición a la violencia y la falta de acceso a una educación de buena calidad. Hacemos una revisión desde una perspectiva ecológica de algunas intervenciones que abordan las necesidades de los jóvenes en riesgo en la región. Las intervenciones en una gama de países se enfocan en alterar los micro sistemas o ecosistemas de la juventud, así como involucrar a los jóvenes directamente.La intervención directa con los jóvenes debe involucrarlos en actividades que tienen sentido para ellos y brindarles empoderamiento. Las lecciones aprendidas a partir de estas intervenciones revelan el potencial excepcional de la juventud para prosperar a pesar de los obstáculos que afrontan.
Promover o bem-estar dos jovens na América Latina e no Caribe é vital para o sucesso na região. Apesar de ter uma presença significativa na população, muitos jovens enfrentam desafios extraordinários como a pobreza, a exposição à violência ea falta de acesso à educação de qualidade. Nós revisamos a partir de uma perspectiva ecológica de algumas intervenções que abordam as necessidades dos jovens em risco na região. Intervenções em uma série de países foco em micro sistemas ou alterando ecossistemas jovens e envolver os jovens diretamente. Intervenção direta com os jovens devem participar de atividades que fazem sentido para eles e fornecer capacitação. As lições aprendidas com essas intervenções revelam o potencial excepcional de jovens a prosperar, apesar dos obstáculos que enfrentam.
4
Protong, Shotiros. "Climate change and landslide risk assessment in Thailand." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2016. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/401821/.
Full textAbstract:
The incidents of sudden landslides in Thailand during the past decade have occurred frequently and more severely. It is necessary to focus on the principle parameters used for analysis such as land cover/land use, rainfall values, characteristics of the soil and digital elevation model(DEM). Rainfall has increased in intensity. For example, the rainfall amount in March in 2011 was the highest in the previous 36 years (1974-2011). However,there was only one tropical cyclone that year. This situation was considered unusual compared to other years (TMD, 2011c). Landslide occurrences occur during intense rainfall especially in the rainy season in Thailand which usually starts around mid-May and ends in the middle of October. The landslide risk analysis is the focus of this research. The combination of geotechnical and hydrological data is used to determine permeability, conductivity, bedding orientation, overburden and presence of loose blocks. The regional landslide hazard mapping is developed using the Slope Stability Index SINMAP model supported by Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in 30 metres. So, the 30 metre pixel size of DEM is used to calcu late on the ground. Geological and land use data are used to define the probability of landslide occurrences in terms of geotechnical data. The geological data can indicate the shear strength and the angle of friction values for soils above given rock types, which leads to the general applicability of the approach for landslide hazard analysis. To address the research, the following methods are described in this study: the calibration and the sensitivity of the SINMAP modelfor setup, geotechnical laboratory,landslide assessment at present calibration and landslide assessment under future climate simulation scenario A2 and B2. A2 simulation scenario delineates a very heterogeneous world and continuous population and economic growth, while B2 storyline is oriented on local solution to economical, social and environmental sustainability (START, 2010). In terms of hydrological data, the millimetres/twenty-four hours of average rainfall data are used to assess the induced rainfall landslide hazard analysis in slope stability mapping. The period 1954-2012is used for the baseline of rainfall data for calibration of present-dayconditions. Future climate simulation scenarios are downscaled in the local areas. The precipitation trends are needed to predict the future climate. The Statistical Down scaling Model (SDSM), is used to assess the simulation scenario of future change for latitudes16o26’and 18o37’and between longitude 98o52’ and 103o05’,is about 117,500 km2, covering Uttaradit province in the northern part of Thailand. The research allows the mapping of landslide risk, and indicates the spatial and time periodof landslide occurrences. Thus, regional landslide hazard mapping under present-day climatic conditions from 1954 to 2012 and simulations of climate change from 2013 to 2099 related to the threshold rainfall values for the selected the study areaare presented. Finally, the zonation of landslide risk will be compared and shown by areas (km2) in both the present and the future under climate simulation scenarios A2 and B2 in Uttaradit province. The rainfall trend will increase in the future simulation. The zonation of landslide risk is nearly the same between the present and the future simulation, while the failure region will obviously increase in the future, especially in steep slope areas.
5
O'Har, John Patrick. "Transportation asset management and climate change: an adaptive risk-oriented approach." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/48963.
Full textAbstract:
Transportation Asset Management (TAM) systems are in use at many transportation agencies both in the United States and around the world. These asset management systems serve as strategic resource allocation frameworks and their degree of implementation and maturity varies. Climatic change, with its potentially adverse impacts on both the built and natural environments, has become of increasing concern around the globe. Given the uncertainties associated with changing climatic conditions, transportation agency stakeholders utilize risk-based decision-making approaches to identify climate change impacts that pose the greatest risk to transportation infrastructure assets. In conjunction with criticality assessments, emerging conceptual frameworks seek to identify higher-risk infrastructure assets, which are both critical to system operations and vulnerable to potential climate change impacts, through standalone study efforts.
This research develops a risk-oriented decision-making framework to identify vulnerable, higher-risk transportation infrastructure assets within the context of existing transportation asset management systems. The framework assesses the relative maturity of an agency’s transportation asset management system and provides guidance as to how an agency’s existing tools and processes can be used to incorporate climate change considerations. This risk-based decision-making framework is applied to three case studies: one at the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority, another at the Metropolitan Planning Commission in Savannah – Chatham County, and a statewide case study at the Georgia Department of Transportation.
The results of this research demonstrate that readily-available climate projection data can be analyzed and displayed geospatially so that the potential impacts of climatic change on transportation infrastructure can be determined for specific geographic regions. In addition, existing roadway and bridge infrastructure datasets can also be displayed geospatially. The framework uses geospatially-referenced roadway and bridge asset data and multi-criteria decision analysis procedures to develop and visually display criticality scores. Overlaying climate projection data and criticality data helps identify higher-risk transportation infrastructure assets. This research demonstrates that climate change considerations can be effectively incorporated in existing decision-making processes at various levels of maturity of formal TAM systems, making this more broadly accessible to agencies and communities with potential climate hazards.
6
van, Rooij Marieke M. J. W. "What Changes When We Change Our Decision Strategy? A Dynamical Account of Transitions between Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Choice Behavior." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1382951052.
Full text
7
Garg, Tushar. "Estimating change propagation risk using TRLs and system architecture." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/110134.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, System Design and Management Program, 2017.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 27-28).
Risk estimation is a key activity for product development and technology integration programs. There are a number of decision support tools that help project managers identify and mitigate risks in a project, however few explicitly consider the effects of architecture on risk. We propose a novel risk estimation framework that includes considerations of the system architecture. By starting with traditional project management literature, we define risk as a combination of likelihood and impact. We use Technology Readiness Levels as our measure for likelihood, and given that change propagates through interfaces, we used metrics that relate to connectivity to estimate impact. To analyze the connectivity, we model systems using networks of nodes and edges and calculate centrality metrics. This framework is applied to an industry example and we visualize the data in different formats to aid in analysis. The insights gained from this analysis are discussed, and we conclude that the risk estimation framework provides estimates that are in line with the experience of engineers at the company.
by Tushar Garg.
S.M. in Engineering and Management
8
Dowiatt, Matthew. "Urban Adaptation Planning in Response to Climate Change Risk." The Ohio State University, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1598284306542077.
Full text
9
Schulte, Jesko. "Sustainability Risk Management in Product Development Companies - Motivating Change." Licentiate thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Institutionen för strategisk hållbar utveckling, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-17631.
Full textAbstract:
Both the ecological and social system are systematically degrading, resulting in decreasing capacities to support human civilization. Product development and manufacturing companies play a key role in driving society’s transition towards a sustainable path. Besides moral arguments, the motivation for companies can be expressed as a matter of smart risk management, i.e. avoiding threats and exploiting opportunities. Such sustainability risks can be related to, for example, brand and reputation, legislative change, or attracting top-talented employees. But, more importantly, it is about understanding changes that are inevitable on markets to come. Based on Maxwell’s interactive qualitative research approach and following the structure of the Design Research Methodology, this thesis aims to contribute (i) to knowledge by increasing the conceptual understanding of what sustainability risks are; and (ii) to practice by researching decision-support for how sustainability risks can be managed in a product development company context. The first study reviewed existing literature and identified characteristics of sustainability risks, which make them particularly difficult to manage. A following exploratory and descriptive study investigated companies’ current risk management practices and preconditions for sustainability integration. It showed that the effects of uncertainty from the sustainability transition need to be identified, assessed, and managed in relation to how they can affect objectives anchored in both internal and external stakeholder value creation. In parallel, the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development was applied as a lens to understand the implications of the sustainability transition for company risk management. This resulted in a new definition, stating that sustainability risks are threats and opportunities that are due to an organization’s contribution or counteraction to society’s transition towards strategic sustainable development. A questionnaire study then investigated some case companies’ challenges and preconditions to build sustainability capabilities. Finally, a workshop method is proposed that aims to support design teams in early sustainable product development. Future research will leverage on the findings to develop and test decision support for how product development companies can manage sustainability risks on different organizational levels in practice to increase competitiveness, while taking leadership in the transition towards a sustainable society.
10
Veljanoska, Stefanija. "Agricultural risk, remittances and climate change in rural Africa." Thesis, Paris 1, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016PA01E057/document.
Full textAbstract:
Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous nous intéressons à l'étude des décisions des ménages ruraux Ougandais en termes de gestion des risques climatiques. Dans un premier temps, nous testons l'impact des transferts des fonds des migrants sur le niveau de spécialisation des cultures agricoles ainsi que le niveau de risque du portefeuille des cultures des ménages contraints par l'accès aux marchés du crédit et de l'assurance. Nous complétons cette première analyse avec une étude sur la capacité des transferts des migrants à encourager les ménages à utiliser des inputs plus risqués tels que les engrais. Dans un troisième temps, nous explorons si le morcellement des terres peut réduire les effets négatifs de la variabilité des précipitations sur les rendements des cultures agricoles. Le dernier objectif de cette thèse est d'analyser l'impact de l'inégalité d'accès à l'eau sur l'intensité et l'incidence des manifestations et des émeutes au sein d'un pays. Le point central et commun aux différents chapitres est la variabilité climatique : quelles sont les conséquences pour les ménages agricoles ; comment les ménages peuvent se protéger contre les aléas climatiques et quelles sont les implications pour la disponibilité de l'eau et les conflits. Telles sont les questions que la thèse vise à aborder à travers une approche micro-économétriqueThe dissertation provides evidence on the agricultural decisions of rural Ugandan households in terms of risk management against weather variability. First, I study the impact of remittances sent by migrants on households' degree of crop specialization and crop riskiness, as remittances may, to some extent, relieve credit and risk constraints. I complete the first objective with a second analysis that explores if remittances can motivate households to use riskier inputs - fertilizers. Third, I examine whether land fragmentation can reduce the negative impacts of rainfall variability on farmers' crop yields. In the final chapter, I test whether inequality in access to water for consumption may increase the incidence and the intensity of low-level conflicts. The central and common theme of the different chapters is weather variability: what are the consequences for agricultural households, how can households protect themselves against weather fluctuations and what are the implications for water availability and social conflict. Those are the questions that the dissertation aims at addressing with a micro-level empirical approach
11
Alzahrani, Abdullah. "Uncovering the emerging risks from climate change scenarios and related climate change risk management in the building sector in the UK." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2015. http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/2014044/.
Full textAbstract:
Climate Change (CC) is recognised as having a significant impact on human decisions, subsequently affecting human-made networks and social systems. Accordingly, gaining insight into how and when CC-related data is established, distributed and utilised is essential in terms of the design of policies, approaches and systems governing everyday life. Uncovering the impacts and risks associated with CC on building sector assets has been highlighted in other research studies as an area necessitating further work. With this in mind, this study is directed towards considering the risks known to emerge from CC scenarios on UK buildings and real estate, and how buildings may be affected by CC. This study adopted a critical literature review with the goal of establishing the risks seen to emerge from CC. The study has adopted an online survey in order to explore the opinions and views of professionals and practitioners across several organisations, sectors and institutions in the UK in relation to the risks emerging from CCS. In addition, the research assessed the most likely risks emerging from CCS on buildings and real estate, along with the potential timescale of their emergence, as based on the experience of the respondents of the study. Moreover, the survey was designed empirically to identified—as based on the emerging risks—the possible and practical responses that will form the most effective Climate Change Risk Management (CCRM) strategies and tools to be adopted to cope with these emerging risks and accordingly avoid as much impact as is possible in direct consideration of property. The main findings from this study showed that, identifying and assessing the emerging risks from CC—specifically in terms of their damages, impacts and emergence timeframe—are crucial for all stages of the lifecycle of buildings and real estate. In this study, 112 risk factors have been identified and were grouped into seven main clusters; from which the operational emerging risks were the most important risks cluster. On the whole, this study provides a first attempt to uncover the potential emerging risks from CCS on the building sector from different perspectives, using conceptual study and simulation in relation to previous researches, and therefore helps to extend the understanding of the possible risks and impacts emerging from CC. In addition, this study builds knowledge in the building sector by providing the potential emerging risks that need to be integrated within a building’s lifecycle in a systematic manner for mitigating the impact of climate change.
12
Morley, Sara Waynette Gibson Rhonda. "Contemplating change in the face of risk a series of articles about approaches people use when considering behavior change to reduce cancer risk /." Chapel Hill, N.C. : University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2007. http://dc.lib.unc.edu/u?/etd,1073.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.A.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2007.Title from electronic title page (viewed Mar. 27, 2008). "... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in the School of Journalism and Mass Communication." Discipline: Journalism and Mass Communication; Department/School: Journalism and Mass Communication, School of.
13
Grover, Himanshu. "Planning for mitigating climate change risk to metropolitan areas (USA)." [College Station, Tex. : Texas A&M University, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-1870.
Full text
14
Yang, Hong. "Change-point models in the risk of anti-asthmatic drugs." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape11/PQDD_0028/MQ50911.pdf.
Full text
15
Paczkowski, John P. "Risk management as strategic change in national homeland security policy." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Naval Postgraduate School, 2007. http://bosun.nps.edu/uhtbin/hyperion-image.exe/07Sep%5FPaczkowski.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense))--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2007.Thesis Advisor(s): Bach, Robert. "September 2007." Description based on title screen as viewed on October 23, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (p. 165-178). Also available in print.
16
Yang, Hong 1968 Nov 13. "Change-point models in the risk of anti-asthmatic drugs." Thesis, McGill University, 1998. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=20981.
Full textAbstract:
Epidemiologic studies indicate that excessive use of short acting beta-2 agonists is associated with increased risk of asthma mortality. We used data from a cohort of 12,301 asthmatics to fit a change-point Poisson regression model to estimate the maximum safe dose of these beta-2 agonists and its confidence limit. Using the profile likelihood method, the maximum likelihood estimate of the change-point is 1.8 canisters/month, and excessive rate of fatal or near fatal asthma attack is 3.7 (2.7--4.7) and 7.0 (3.5--10.4) per 1,000 asthmatics per year before and after the change-point. Its bootstrap 95-percentile intervals are (2, 64) and (2, 71) canisters/year respectively for non-parametric and parametric approaches. Simulation studies found the profile likelihood and bootstrap methods useful for inference of the change-point in providing safe dose information for these drugs. Future studies are needed to obtain more precise bootstrap intervals and to assess the confounding effects of covariates.
17
Featherstone, Helen Clare. "Risk communication of climate change: stakeholder objectives and public responses." Thesis, University of the West of England, Bristol, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.490458.
Full textAbstract:
Climate change is a pressing issue today. Drastic policy change and individual behaviour change are required to mitigate and adapt to the changes. For this to be Implemented successfully the public must be engaged. There is a shortfall in qualitative research into public engagement with climate change where engagement Is defined in terms of cognitive, affective and behavioural responses. A case study was undertaken in Bristol, UK. Focus groups were used to examine public engagement with climate change.
18
Ding, Xiuhua. "MODELING DEMENTIA RISK, COGNITIVE CHANGE, PREDICTIVE RULES IN LONGITUDINAL STUDIES." UKnowledge, 2016. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/epb_etds/9.
Full textAbstract:
Dementia is increasing recognized as a major problem to public health worldwide. Prevention and treatment strategies are in critical need. Nowadays, research for dementia usually featured as complex longitudinal studies, which provide extensive information and also propose challenge to statistical methodology. The purpose of this dissertation research was to apply statistical methodology in the field of dementia to strengthen the understanding of dementia from three perspectives: 1) Application of statistical methodology to investigate the association between potential risk factors and incident dementia. 2) Application of statistical methodology to analyze changes over time, or trajectory, in cognitive tests and symptoms. 3) Application of statistical learning methods to predict development of dementia in the future.
Prevention of Alzheimer’s disease with Vitamin E and Selenium (PREADViSE) (7547 subjects included) and Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) (591 participants included) were used in this dissertation. The first study, “Self-reported sleep apnea and dementia risk: Findings from the PREADViSE Alzheimer’s disease prevention trial ”, shows that self-reported baseline history of sleep apnea was borderline significantly associated with risk of dementia after adjustment for confounding. Stratified analysis by APOE ε4 carrier status showed that baseline history of sleep apnea was associated with significantly increased risk of dementia in APOE ε4 non-carriers. The second study, “comparison of trajectories of episodic memory for over 10 years between baseline normal and MCI ADNI subjects,” shows that estimated 30% normal subjects at baseline assigned to group 3 and 6 stay stable for over 9 years, and normal subjects at baseline assigned to Group 1 (18.18%) and Group 5 (16.67%) were more likely to develop into dementia. In contrast to groups identified for normal subjects, all trajectory groups for MCI subjects at baseline showed the tendency to decline. The third study, “comparison between neural network and logistic regression in PREADViSE trial,” demonstrates that neural network has slightly better predictive performance than logistic regression, and also it can reveal complex relationships among covariates. In third study, the effect of years of education on response variable depends on years of age, status of APOE ɛ4 allele and memory change.
19
Araujo, Brandon. "Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: How Risk Influences Decision-Making." UNF Digital Commons, 2017. http://digitalcommons.unf.edu/etd/744.
Full textAbstract:
Climate change is currently threatening the livelihoods of farmers in developing countries. Psychological models have been developed to identify factors associated with adapting to climate change; however, little work has investigated the role of farmers’ risk attitudes in these models. We assessed perceptions of adaptation cost and adaptation intentions for five drought- specific adaptive behaviors among 550 farmers from 12 villages in the dry zone of Sri Lanka, as well as their attitudes toward risk. Results suggest that perceived adaptation cost and risk attitude are negatively associated with adaptation intentions. The conditional effect of adaptation cost on adaptation intention as a function of risk attitude was also investigated. Results showed that only farmers with risk averse attitudes were impacted by their perceptions of adaptation costs. These findings have implications for those interested in increasing adaptive practices of farmers in developing countries who face increasingly scarce water supplies.
20
Keyworth, Christopher. "Risk communication and lifestyle behaviour change in people with psoriasis." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2015. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/risk-communication-and-lifestyle-behaviour-change-in-people-with-psoriasis(9b30873c-d3d0-4b18-888b-cab12715e402).html.
Full textAbstract:
People with psoriasis are known to engage in high levels of unhealthy lifestyle behaviours which may lead to poorer psoriasis outcomes and increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Thus, helping individuals with psoriasis understand the link between behaviours and health risks, that is health risk communication, and direct support for lifestyle behaviour change (LBC) are important aspects in optimal management of psoriasis, a long-term inflammatory skin condition. There are two aspects of the literature that remain unclear. First, whether adequate support is given to patients to enable them to understand the links between lifestyle behaviours and health outcomes is part of psoriasis patient management strategies. Second, whether there is agreement around effective health risk communication techniques. This programme of research aimed to examine these gaps in the literature using four related studies. The first study used content analysis to examine general and dermatology-specific healthcare professionals’ core training competencies for evidence of skills relating to LBC. An important finding was the lack of explicit skills relating to LBC and changing understanding of health risks. There was little or no reference to recognised LBC techniques that could be used to support and facilitate LBC with patients. The second study used observational techniques to examine messages about the links between behaviour and health outcomes and LBC signposting (such as leaflets or posters about healthy living) for patients with psoriasis in primary and secondary care patient waiting areas. There was little evidence of psoriasis-specific information about healthy living. Generic information (not specifically about psoriasis) was often of poor quality and was poorly displayed, and did not conform to evidence-based recommendations for effective LBC signposting. The third study combined observational and qualitative techniques to examine how healthcare professionals communicate information about CVD risk to patients and the role of LBC in reducing risk in the context of primary care risk assessments with people with psoriasis. A key finding was that interpretation of risk information was not always linked to specific advice about how to modify each risk factor. Discussion was mostly instructional rather than a shared collaborative discussion about behaviour change and risk reductionThe fourth study used experimental methods to examine the effects of message framing theory as a health risk communication strategy on reported behavioural intentions (BIs) in people with psoriasis. An important finding was that for messages about psoriasis symptom reduction, gain-framed (positively-framed) messages were more effective in increasing BIs for alcohol reduction. Conversely, for messages about CVD risk reduction, loss-framed (negatively-framed) messages were more effective for increasing BIs to reduce alcohol consumption. The body of work presented in this thesis demonstrated that much needs to be done to increase the skill sets of healthcare professionals in order to help people with psoriasis recognise the specific links between their own health behaviours and health outcomes. In addition specific recommendations have been suggested as a way of improving risk communication strategies, such as using theory-based personally-relevant health information for people with psoriasis.
21
Øverbye, Einar. "Risk and welfare : examining stability and change in "welfare" policies /." Oslo : NOVA - Norwegian Social Research, 1998. http://www.sv.uio.no/stv/.
Full text
22
Ou, Po-Hsiang. "Climate change v Eurozone crisis : social and economic views of risk in inter-expert risk communication." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:f3619fc5-fd2a-483b-92b5-94aa90ce13d1.
Full textAbstract:
This DPhil thesis discusses how two divergent risk conceptions, a 'social view' and an 'economic view' of risk, are constructed through inter-expert risk communication. Different and sometimes contradictory concepts of risk are mobilised in regulatory practice, but the origins of these divergent risk conceptions are not extensively studied. This thesis seeks to unpack this divergence. Empirically, I analyse risk communication among experts in the European Union (EU) during the creation of two risk regulation standards. The two case studies, one related to the development of the two-degree target of EU climate policies (the climate case) and the other about the negotiation of the excessive deficit criteria of the Maastricht Treaty (the euro case), can shed light on the relations between risk conceptions and inter-expert risk communication. I argue that through risk communication, an initial 'view' of risk can be entrenched and developed into a paradigmatic 'risk conception'. My analysis uses historical and sociological institutionalism, by focusing on path dependence of risk communication and social construction risk conceptions among EU experts. Through the two case studies, I identify four analytical dimensions of inter-expert risk communication: networks (the institutional setting and relationships between different experts), cultures (the mentalities of experts in relation to discussing risks), dynamics (the actual processes of transmitting and receiving risk messages) and strategies (the rationales supporting the decisions of risk regulation standards). My thematic analysis reveals four key distinct 'features' of social/economic views of risk: expertise (the types of knowledge mobilised), normality (characterising risk as either 'special' or 'routine'), probability (considering risk as either uncertain or calculable) and impact (seeing risk as either negative or positive). I argue that these four features can help explain the construction of risk conceptions, and more broadly, provide an analytical framework for studying how views of risk evolve and interact over time.
23
Duquette, Eric Nigel 1978. "Choice difficulty and risk perceptions in environmental economics." Thesis, University of Oregon, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/11294.
Full textAbstract:
xv, 173 p. : ill. (some col.) A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number.Economists typically assume that individuals behave in accordance with rational choice theory. In practice, however, individual behavior can deviate from the predictions of models founded upon basic economic theory. The extent to which these deviations are important to individual decision-making in environmental economics, and thus to the development of sound environmental policies, is not fully understood. The objective in this dissertation research is to investigate potential deviations from rational choice behavior in some environmental economics contexts and to identify their relevance to environmental policy. Chapter I uses a stated-preference survey for the valuation of environmental health-risk reductions in which respondents rate the subjective difficulty of each key choice they are asked to consider. Existing literature identifies many potential categories of biases in the empirically estimated valuation of non-market goods in stated-preference research. One potential source of bias stems from the "objective complexity" of the choice scenario. I find that existing objective measures of choice set complexity do not fully explain subjective choice difficulty ratings in this valuation survey. Instead, subjective difficulty appears to result from the interplay among objective complexity, preferences, and cognitive resource constraints. In Chapter II, I consider the possible consequences of choice difficulty from the standpoint of neuroeconomics. Within the scope of neuroeconomics, one can identify some neurobiological correlates of economic decision-making activity. I study the apparent effects of choice difficulty on the neurobiological encoding of individuals' value assessments. Information from this study provides a neurological basis for deviations from simple economic theory based on conventional models of rational choice. Chapter III examines risk perceptions that may influence individuals' decisions to migrate within the U.S. to reduce potential health and economic risks related to climate change. My analysis treats historical patterns of migration among counties as a function of varying spatial and temporal patterns in tornado activity, along with other spatially and temporally delineated variables intended to capture the evolution of subjective perceptions of these tornado risks. Results suggest that the perception of risk from extreme weather events can have a small but statistically discernible effect on migration behavior across sociodemographic groups for both out-migrants and in-migrants.
Committee in charge: Trudy Cameron, Chairperson, Economics; William Harbaugh, Member, Economics; Jason Lindo, Member, Economics; Ulrich Mayr, Outside Member, Psychology
24
Cheney, David L. "Can Duration -- Interest Rate Risk -- and Convexity Explain the Fractional Price Change and Market Risk of Equities?" DigitalCommons@USU, 1993. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/3844.
Full textAbstract:
In the last two decades, duration analysis has been largely applied to fixed - income securities . However, since rising and falling interest rates have been determined to be a major cause of stock price movements, equity duration has received a great deal of attention.
The duration of an equity is a measure of its interest rate risk. Duration is the sensitivity of the price of an equity with respect to the interest rate. Convexity is the sensitivity of duration with respect to the interest rate.
The analysis revealed that the fractional price change and market risk of equities can be explained by duration and convexity.
25
Miller, Carrie A. "Communicating Colorectal Cancer Risk to Average Risk Adults: Examining the Impact on Risk Perceptions and Health Behavior Intentions." VCU Scholars Compass, 2018. https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/etd/5632.
Full textAbstract:
Background. CRC risk can be reduced though lifestyle modification and regular screenings. Providing CRC risk feedback that promotes preventive behaviors to those at average risk has the potential to significantly reduce CRC morbidity and mortality.
Purpose. The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the impact of CRC risk assessment feedback among adults aged 50-75 with no personal or family history of the disease. The specific aims were to: (1a) test personalized (vs. generic) risk assessment feedback on individuals’ risk perceptions and intentions to engage in three risk-reducing behaviors (e.g., physical activity, diet, and screening); (1b) determine if the provision of CRC risk information influences breast cancer risk perceptions and mammography intentions; (2a) examine individuals’ accuracy of perceived lifetime risk of CRC; (2b) assess whether improved accuracy following risk assessment was associated with changes in behavioral intentions; and finally, (3) evaluate the use of a unique sampling procedure designed to increase diversity of survey respondents.
Methods. A pre-post parallel, two arm randomized controlled trial examined the effects of providing CRC risk assessment feedback that included lifetime risk estimates and information about CRC risk factors that was either personalized (treatment) or generic (control). N=419 average risk adults between the ages of 50-75 were recruited from a commercial online panel.
Results. There were no differences in risk perception between study arms. Overall participants, perceived lifetime risk of CRC lowered at post-test and seemingly produced a spillover effect in lowered perceived lifetime risk of breast cancer among females. CRC screening intentions increased in both study arms and mammography intentions increased in the control arm. Accuracy of lifetime risk improved at post-test, but was not associated with changes in intentions to perform risk reducing behaviors. Quota sampling acquired a targeted and diverse sample quickly and efficiently.
Conclusion. Communicating CRC risk information to average risk adults can improve CRC risk perception accuracy and enhance colorectal and mammography screening intentions. Risk assessment feedback did not consistently influence intentions to improve diet and physical activity.
26
Meng, Sisi. "Economic Aspects of Climate Change Adaptation and Natural Hazard Risk Mitigation." FIU Digital Commons, 2016. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/2630.
Full textAbstract:
According to Munich Re (2013), economic losses related to natural disasters have increased from an average of $50 billion in the 1980s to $200 billion over the last decade. The cost of natural disasters is accumulating rapidly and some claim that climate change is responsible. Others believe that human behaviors like population growth or land use should be blamed for these rising costs. The process of climate change has already taken place, and it is expected to continue to impact the future. As a result, people are more vulnerable today. Therefore, understanding the economic aspects of climate change and natural hazard risks should be considered as a major issue and addressed in greater detail. This dissertation aimed to explore household preferences of climate change adaptation and the economic impacts of natural hazards at both micro- and macro- levels.
The dissertation consisted of three related empirical studies based on the two main changes that will occur with climate change predicted by scientific climate models: stronger hurricanes and rising sea levels. The first chapter examined the impact of a recent hurricane on household activities. The objective was to find out whether a more intensified hurricane caused greater damages, and whether such damages had a long-lasting impact on household recovery. If the impact of natural hazards is worse than before, people should avoid putting themselves in harm's way. However, evidence indicates that the population in coastal cities is still growing fast, as people tend to reside near the beaches and attractive landscapes. Concerns are thus prompted by the possible lack of perceptions for future risks caused by natural hazards. Therefore, the second chapter focused on household perceptions and preferences for adapting to sea level rise in Florida. Lastly, although a disaster strikes rich or poor nations indifferently, some small island nations are among the most vulnerable. In the third chapter, the macroeconomic implications of natural hazards in Central America and the Caribbean were investigated. A careful examination of the economic factors that can lead to smaller losses and higher abilities to cope with disasters is crucial in such countries.
27
Tejedor, Garavito Natalia. "Impact of climate change on extinction risk of montane tree species." Thesis, Bournemouth University, 2014. http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/21485/.
Full textAbstract:
The potential impacts of climate change on many species worldwide remains unknown, especially in those tropical regions that are centers of endemism and are highly biodiverse. This thesis provides an insight into the extinction risk of selected tree species using different species distribution modelling techniques and reviewing the current conservation status on montane forest in the Tropical Andes. Starting with a global analysis, the potential impacts of climate change on montane ecoregions is investigated, by identifying those that are more vulnerable to the expected changes in temperature and precipitation, from global predictions under different climate change scenarios. It then gives an insight on the current and potential threats to biodiversity in the Andean region, including the identification of those that are most likely to be responsible for increasing the extinction risk of the species. With the use of the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, selected tree species were assessed to identify their extinction risk. Information on the species’ current distribution was collated and used to estimate their potential distribution under climate change, by using different modelling techniques. These results were used to reassess the species using the IUCN Red List and establish the changes in Red List Category. Lastly, it provides a discussion that integrates all the results obtained throughout the thesis, to explore the implications for conservation, in order to highlight the overriding importance of including threatened tree species to target conservation efforts in the region, while considering the uncertainties that surround predictions under climate change scenarios, modelling techniques and the use of the IUCN Red List.
28
Mowbray, Fiona Margaret. "Risk communication, behaviour change and tick-borne disease in the UK." Thesis, King's College London (University of London), 2014. https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/risk-communication-behaviour-change-and-tickborne-disease-in-the-uk(0b97e7b1-f996-48e0-ba58-f42500da5be5).html.
Full textAbstract:
Tick-borne disease represents a growing problem in the UK. While some communications materials exist which encourage members of the public to adopt precautionary behaviours when in tick affected areas, these have not been informed by empirical evidence as to what factors promote uptake of protective behaviours and have not had their effectiveness formally tested. This research: • Identified knowledge and perceptions of risk concerning tick-borne disease in the UK that were associated with uptake of health protective behaviours; • Designed new communications materials promoting the uptake of health protective behaviours; • Tested whether the effect of these new materials was improved by also incorporating messages designed to reduce the emotion of disgust. Qualitative interviews allowed understanding of the thought processes of experts and the public with regards to the risk posed by ticks and tick-borne disease. Tick checking emerged as the most effective and accepted protective behaviour. A quantitative survey with members of London-based outdoor groups provided data showing that knowledge, perceived likelihood of being bitten, self-efficacy about tick removal and lower levels of disgust were the strongest predictors of checking behaviour. Both the qualitative and quantitative data fed into the design of communication materials that served as interventions against tick-borne disease risks. These were tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial where members of the public were sent one of three versions of the intervention, one including disgust reduction messages, one with messages based on behaviour change techniques developed from conventional models within health psychology and one with existing messages. The intervention based on conventional theories of health psychology proved most effective at increasing the uptake of tick checking behaviour and disgust reduction appeared to decrease behavioural engagement. Future research is needed to investigate the role of disgust as a driver of behaviour change, while policy makers need to be aware of the importance of engaging with the public and incorporating elements of health psychology theory into intervention design.
29
Borgomeo, Edoardo. "Climate change and water resources : risk-based approaches for decision-making." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:a57a491f-96fb-4579-bd8a-ba7e86722dea.
Full textAbstract:
Water-resource managers are facing unprecedented challenges in accommodating the large uncertainties associated with climate change in their planning decisions. Integration of climate risk information is a pre-requisite for water resources planning under a changing climate, yet this information is often presented outside the decision-making context and in a way which is not relevant for the decision at hand. Furthermore, there is a lack of approaches that explicitly evaluate the impact of nonstationary climate change on decision-relevant metrics and variables. This thesis describes novel methods for incorporating uncertain information on climate change in water resources decision-making and estimating climate change-related risks in water resources systems. The main hypotheses of this thesis are that: (1) shifting away from planning approaches based on abstract supply-demand balance metrics towards risk-based approaches that quantify the frequency and severity of observable outcomes of concern to water users, such as water shortages, can help decision-makers establish preferences among actions and identify cost and climate risk reduction trade-offs (2) adopting risk-based planning methods allows water managers to characterize and account for different sources of uncertainty in the water planning process and to understand their impact on outcomes of value and decisions. To test these hypotheses, this thesis presents an analytic approach for (1) incorporating nonstationary climate change projections and other uncertain factors related to demand changes into water resources decision-making, (2) understanding trade-offs between benefits of climate risk-reduction and cost of climate change adaptation, and (3) characterizing water supply vulnerability to unprecedented drought conditions. The approach is applied to London's urban water supply system located in the Thames river basin, south-east of England. Results from this thesis demonstrate how a systematic characterization of uncertainties related to future hydro-climatic conditions can help decision-makers compare and choose between a range of possible water management options and decide upon the scale and timing of implementation that meet decision-makers' risk tolerability. Additionally, results show the benefits of combining climate information with vulnerability analysis to test decisions' robustness to unprecedented drought conditions. The application of the proposed methods to the London urban water supply system suggests that the risks of exceeding reliability targets in the future will increase if no further supply or demand side actions were to be taken. Results from the case study also show that changes in demand due to population growth could have greater impacts on water security than climate change and that small reductions in climate-related risk may come at significantly higher costs. It should be stressed that the results from the case study are based on a simplified representation of London's water supply system and that they should be further tested with the full system model employed by the water utility which implements more complex operational rules.
30
Wasti, Asphota. "Climate Change Risk Assessment of Hydropower Projects: Towards a Holistic Approach." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1573569567011193.
Full text
31
Lindhiem, Oliver James. "Modeling change / an attachment-based intervention with high-risk birth mothers." Access to citation, abstract and download form provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company; downloadable PDF file, 85 p, 2009. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1885670951&sid=5&Fmt=2&clientId=8331&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
Full text
32
Rehan, Balqis Mohamed. "Risk-based flood protection decisions in the context of climatic variability and change." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2016. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:d4f3ecc7-0a85-46fe-a66c-4251ddbca83a.
Full textAbstract:
Flood events have caused detrimental impacts to humans' lives and anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the impact. It has been recognized that a long-term planning through risk-based optimization of flood defence will lead to a cost-effective solution for managing flood risk, but the prevailing assumption of stationarity may lead to an erroneous solution. In attempt to investigate the potential impact of the uncertain underlying statistical characteristics of extreme flow series to flood protection decisions, this research explores risk-based flood protection decisions in the context of climatic variability and change. In particular, the implications of persistence series and nonstationarity were investigated through hypothetical and real case studies. Monte Carlo simulation approach was adopted to capture the uncertainty due to the natural variability. For persistence model, AR(1) was integrated with the GEV model to simulate extreme flow series with persistence. To test the effects of nonstationary, GEV models with a linear location parameter and time as covariate were adopted. Rational decision makers' behaviours were simulated through a designed decision analysis framework. One of the main findings from the research is that the traditional stationary assumption should remain the basic assumption due to insignificant difference of the decisions' economic performance. However, exploration of the nonstationarity assumption enabled identification of options that are robust to climate uncertainties. It is also found that optimized protection of combined measures of flood defence and property-level protection may provide a cost-effective solution for local flood protection. Overall, the simulation and case studies enlighten practitioners and decision makers with new evidence, and may guide to practical enhancement of long term flood risk management decision making.
33
Kahlbom, Ulf. "Säkerhetsvärdering av organisationsförändringar vid storskalig kärnteknisk verksamhet : Problem, utmaningar och förslag på lösning." Doctoral thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för innovation, design och teknik, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-13145.
Full textAbstract:
This study addresses safety issues related to organizational change within safety critical operations, focusing on large-scale nuclear technology operations. Failures in safety critical operations can lead to unacceptable consequences for both man and environment. Given this, a decreased safety level due to organizational change is undesirable. It is, however, estimated that about 75 % of all general organizational changes fail to achieve the goals that are set up for the change (Boonstra, 2004). It is thus important to evaluate the safety impact of a proposed organizational change before it can be accepted for implementation. There is, however, a lack of methods for evaluating the safety impact due to organizational change, and there is also a need for developing knowledge in this field. The dissertation hence concerns safety evaluation of organizational change, with the general aim to develop knowledge in the area of safety evaluation of organizational change, and also to develop a method for safety evaluation of organizational change. In the thesis, a literature review is presented which deals with significant parts of three areas relevant for the above aim: organizational change, decision theory, and safety science. The empirical parts of the study can be divided into two parts. The first part is concerned with the identification of the dynamic aspects of organizational change in nuclear technology organizations. This part was performed by collecting and analyzing data from an already implemented organizational change. The data sources were primarily interviews, internal organizational documentation, and one survey. The second part is concerned with the development and application of a method for evaluating the safety impact due to organizational change. This part was performed by departing from an action research framework, and the developed method was applied to two different but related organizational changes in nuclear technology organizations. The results from the second part primarily concerned experiences related to applying the method for safety evaluation. In the light of the answers to the research questions that were set up for the study some important results are presented. One important result is the developed method, validated from an action research perspective. Other important results are the identification of situations that affect the rational decision making process when performing a safety evaluation, and the presentation of some reasons that explains why these situations occur. Other important tentative conclusions, primarily drawn from the literature review of the study, are that there might be an inherent contradiction between common routines for organizational change processes versus risk- and safety analysis, and that there might also be a contradiction between safety culture and the management literature encouragement of risk taking.I avhandlingen studeras säkerhet i samband med organisationsförändringar inom säkerhetskritiska verksamheter, med särskilt fokus på de kärntekniska verksamheterna kraftproduktion samt lagring av använt kärnbränsle. Brister inom säkerhetskritiska verksamheter kan leda till oacceptabla konsekvenser för både människa och miljö, vilket naturligtvis innebär att en minskad säkerhetsnivå på grund av till exempel en organisationsförändring är oönskad. Undersökningar har dock visat att rent generellt så misslyckas organisationsförändringar i cirka 75 % av fallen med att nå de mål som satts upp för förändringen (Boonstra, 2004). Det är därför viktigt att värdera hur säkerheten påverkas innan den föreslagna organisationsförändringen implementeras. Avhandlingen fokuserar sålunda på säkerhetsvärdering av organisations-förändringar, och har som övergripande syfte att utveckla kunskap inom området säkerhetsvärdering av organisationsförändringar. I avhandlingen redovisas en litteraturgenomgång som spänner över tre för syftet relevanta områden; organisationsförändring, beslutsteori samt säkerhetsvetenskap. De empiriska delarna av arbete kan delas upp i två övergripande moment. Det första momentet avser de dynamiska aspekterna av organisationsförändringar vid kärntekniska organisationer. Denna del genomfördes genom att data samlandes in från en redan genomförd organisationsförändring. Detta gjordes framförallt genom att analysera och sammanställa resultaten från flera intervjuer, en stor mängd dokument samt en enkätundersökning. Det andra momentet avser utveckling och tillämpning av en metod för att genomföra säkerhetsvärdering av organisationsförändring. Denna del tog sin utgångspunkt i aktionsforskning, och den utvecklade metoden tillämpades vid två olika men sammanhängande förändringar vid storskaliga kärntekniska organisationer. Mot bakgrund av svaren på de forskningsfrågor som sattes upp för arbetet redovisas ett antal resultat. Ett resultat avser den utvecklade metoden för säkerhetsvärdering, vilken validerats ur ett aktionsforskningsperspektiv. Andra resultat avser identifiering av situationer som påverkar den rationella beslutsprocessen vid säkerhetsvärderingar, samt redovisning av orsaker som kan förklara varför dessa situationer uppstår. En annan intressant tentativ slutsats som kan dras från arbetet är att det kan finnas en inneboende motsägelse mellan vanliga rutiner for organisationsförändringsprocesser samt risk- och säkerhetsanalyser.
34
Bekera, Behailu Belamo. "Stochastic Drought Risk Analysis and Projection Methods For Thermoelectric Power Systems." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3725243.
Full textAbstract:
Combined effects of socio-economic, environmental, technological and political factors impact fresh cooling water availability, which is among the most important elements of thermoelectric power plant site selection and evaluation criteria. With increased variability and changes in hydrologic statistical stationarity, one concern is the increased occurrence of extreme drought events that may be attributable to climatic changes. As hydrological systems are altered, operators of thermoelectric power plants need to ensure a reliable supply of water for cooling and generation requirements. The effects of climate change are expected to influence hydrological systems at multiple scales, possibly leading to reduced efficiency of thermoelectric power plants. This study models and analyzes drought characteristics from a thermoelectric systems operational and regulation perspective. A systematic approach to characterize a stream environment in relation to extreme drought occurrence, duration and deficit-volume is proposed and demonstrated. More specifically, the objective of this research is to propose a stochastic water supply risk analysis and projection methods from thermoelectric power systems operation and management perspectives. The study defines thermoelectric drought as a shortage of cooling water due to stressed supply or beyond operable water temperature limits for an extended period of time requiring power plants to reduce production or completely shut down. It presents a thermoelectric drought risk characterization framework that considers heat content and water quantity facets of adequate water availability for uninterrupted operation of such plants and safety of its surroundings. In addition, it outlines mechanisms to identify rate of occurrences of the said droughts and stochastically quantify subsequent potential losses to the sector. This mechanism is enabled through a model based on compound Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process. This study also demonstrates how the systematic approach can be used for better understanding of pertinent vulnerabilities by providing risk-based information to stakeholders in the power sector.
Vulnerabilities as well as our understanding of their extent and likelihood change over time. Keeping up with the changes and making informed decisions demands a time-dependent method that incorporates new evidence into risk assessment framework. This study presents a statistical time-dependent risk analysis approach, which allows for life cycle drought risk assessment of thermoelectric power systems. Also, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) extension to the proposed framework is developed. The BBN allows for incorporating new evidence, such as observing power curtailments due to extreme heat or lowflow situations, and updating our knowledge and understanding of the pertinent risk. In sum, the proposed approach can help improve adaptive capacity of the electric power infrastructure, thereby enhancing its resilience to events potentially threatening grid reliability and economic stability.
The proposed drought characterization methodology is applied on a daily streamflow series obtained from three United States Geological Survey (USGS) water gauges on the Tennessee River basin. The stochastic water supply risk assessment and projection methods are demonstrated for two power plants on the White River, Indiana: Frank E. Ratts and Petersburg, using water temperature and streamflow time series data obtained from a nearby USGS gauge.
35
Khamis, Tashmin Kassam. "South Asian foodways in Britain : diversity and change." Thesis, King's College London (University of London), 1996. https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/south-asian-foodways-in-britain--diversity-and-change(c37dcd8f-cdb8-46af-a9ed-d6a5ad86c96d).html.
Full text
36
Apostolopoulos, Charalampos. "Risk assessment for change management within project management : a hierarchical model process approach." Thesis, City University London, 2015. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/15015/.
Full textAbstract:
The field of modern project management is not new, and what seems to have changed over the past decade is the evolution of techniques applying theory into practice. This had as a consequence for the need to standardise and structure different processes of project management, in a detailed, documented and formal manner. On the other hand, change management seen as an integrated process within project management is a rational process for exploring decision and behaviour alternatives in an attempt to realign the course of ‘derailed’ deliverables due to change and ensure project success. However, models contained in such frameworks often lack formal semantics and clarity; generally fail to address and assess organisational change management risk reasoning, in a rather detailed way as they do for the majority of the project management processes. Since, uncontrolled changes might have an effect on the projects’ success, it is vital to assess the probability of materialisation (risk) of success before the decision is made and whether to proceed with the change or not. For example, if the change dramatically increases the risk of failure then it is logical to assume that avoiding that implementation is the right decision. Ideally, a change or consequence based upon a decision should have a low impact and a fairly high level of predictability. This research, takes the challenge to propose a novel modelling approach, which will contribute significantly to the missing formality of business models especially in the change risks assessment area. The introduction of Change Risk Assessment Model (CRAM) allows the identification and definition of speculative relationships, between change risks in the form of hierarchical risk tree analysis. Overall, the method is dynamic and flexible enough that can be tailored to various project requirements, taking into account significant environmental risk factors which influence project deliverables. Project success is a key objective for today’s organisations; professionals can make use of a new methodology for risk assessment, compatible with project management frameworks which currently seems to be missing from literature. Project management methodologies are not a panacea against project failure; nevertheless, CRAM can be regarded as a comprehensive modelling approach which combines both quantitative and qualitative risk criteria analysis in decision making processes.
37
Price, Hermione Clare. "Personalised cardiovascular disease risk information as a motivator of behaviour change in individuals at high cardiovascular disease risk." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2010. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:3cab4a20-355c-43af-9377-c655e42a4acf.
Full textAbstract:
Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is becoming increasingly common in routine clinical practice. Consequently many individuals are likely to be identified as being at increased CVD risk and risk reducing strategies implemented with a view to preventing future CVD. There are many steps along the pathway from CVD risk assessment to the prevention of CVD events. First, CVD risk needs to be accurately estimated using an appropriate CVD risk calculator. Secondly CVD risk information needs to be effectively communicated to the individual identified as being at increased risk. Thirdly, the risk information communicated needs to be capable of motivating behaviour change and finally behaviour change needs to result in a reduction in CVD risk. The evidence base for many of these steps has yet to be fully established. Aims: The overall aims of this work were first to adapt the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine to better display risk and achievable risk. Secondly to investigate lay perceptions of risk and to develop two interventions designed to reduce CVD risk. The two interventions were a personalised 10-year CVD risk estimate and a brief lifestyle advice intervention. Finally, the capacity of these interventions to increase physical activity and improve CVD risk factors in adults at increased CVD risk was tested. Methods: Three focus groups were held to investigate lay perceptions of risk and to inform the design of the UKPDS Risk Engine interface and a brief lifestyle advice intervention designed to motivate risk reducing behaviours. The two interventions were then tested in a 2x2 factorial randomised controlled trial. Results: The focus group results demonstrated that public interest and understanding of risk was high. In addition participants expressed clear views regarding how risk information and lifestyle advice should be presented. 194 participants at increased 10-year CVD risk (≥ 20%) were recruited from 4 Oxfordshire general practices. Neither a personalised 10-year CVD risk estimate nor a brief lifestyle advice intervention was capable of increasing physical activity or reducing estimated 10-year CVD risk in this group. Conclusions: Whilst public interest in CVD risk appeared to be high this study was unable to demonstrate that a 10-year personalised CVD risk estimate or a brief lifestyle advice intervention was able to increase physical activity in adults at increased CVD risk.
38
Slabbert, George Raymond. "Change in corporate debt levels in South Africa from 1994 to 2016." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29283.
Full textAbstract:
This paper aims to investigate the change in corporate debt levels in South Africa from 1994 to 2016 as well as analyse certain factors that play a role in the decision making of corporates when it comes to the all important decision of capital structure. The study uses data from large capitalisation, retail and food producing firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Four different leverage measures are used to determine the change in capital structure over the period under review as well as six of the most common determinants of capital structure used in literature. The analysis shows that South African corporates have drastically increased their appetite for debt funding compared to equity funding over the last two decades. Large capitalisation stocks reflected the largest increase in the use of debt, whilst food producers showed the smallest yet still significant increase in debt. Analysis has also shown that firms have changed their maturity profile of their debt significantly since the 2008 financial crises. Results from the analysis on determinants varied with some determinants showing statistical significance.
39
Wall, Thomas A. "A risk-based assessment tool to prioritize roadway culvert assets for climate change adaptation planning." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/50393.
Full textAbstract:
There is growing concern in the United States and abroad that changes in climate may have serious adverse impacts on communities and their civil infrastructure systems. In response, governments and agencies have begun to investigate adaptation: actions taken to reduce the vulnerability or increase the resiliency of natural and human systems in light of expected climate change. In the transportation sector, adaptation planning has predominantly pursued risk-based strategies that seek to identify climate impacts, and assess infrastructure vulnerabilities across multiple asset types, in network-level planning. However, given the complexity of the myriad asset types of which engineered civil infrastructure systems are composed, these frameworks may not adequately address the unique concerns of these various individual asset types.
This research develops a risk-based framework to assess and prioritize at a network-level the risks of highway culvert assets to the projected impacts of climate change, specifically focusing on increases in extreme precipitation, and the associated potential for flooding. The framework is applied in a series of case studies using culvert management data provided by four state DOTs, and national climate change projection and infrastructure datasets. The framework developed proposes a new characterization of infrastructure climate change risk, based upon the catastrophe model, to address the need for qualitative approaches to risk given the uncertain nature of climate change, and the sometimes sparse inventory and attribute data for various assets. This characterization proposes three “dimensions” of infrastructure climate risk (climate change impact exposure, asset climate impact vulnerability, and asset criticality) to assign culvert asset priorities. The research develops a method to project the geospatial extent and changes in magnitude of extreme precipitation events; it also develops two measures of culvert vulnerability to increased flow conditions based upon data collected in general culvert management activities.
This research demonstrates that existing data sources can be reasonably combined in an analytical assessment framework to identify climate change impact risks to highway culvert assets, providing an additional resource to the existing climate change adaptation planning and risk management toolkit in the transportation infrastructure sector, and also laying a foundation for further refinement of these methods. The results of this research demonstrate that existing climate change projection data, when used alongside culvert inventory and attribute data, provides a reasonable means by which to analyze the projected exposure of culvert assets to climate change impacts. This research also demonstrates that existing culvert management data provides a reasonable foundation upon which to assess the relative vulnerability of culverts to increased flow conditions, although additional research is necessary to develop these methods. The structure of the proposed framework provides a viable means by which quantitative climate change projections, asset vulnerability, and asset criticality data can be combined in a mixed-methods approach to qualitatively characterize climate change impact risks to highway culvert assets despite uncertainty in climate change projections and other inputs.
40
Ehringer, Wolfgang, and Henrik Söderström. "Framing Global Catastrophic Risk - Recent and Future Research." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-33354.
Full textAbstract:
This article is a literature review about global catastrophic risks. Its contribution is to give an overview of the research field in general and highlight the main potential catastrophic areas linked with recent studies. In many movies and TV shows, we can see our civilization collapse in various ways: Gigantic asteroids hit the earth and obliterate all life, nuclear wars emerge, artificial intelligence evolves and starts wars with humans, pandemics spread, and other kinds of catastrophic events with mass death or extinction of all life happen. Thus, even if these are extreme events and fiction, we should raise the question how likely it is that one or more of these events can occur in the near and far future. Although calculated probabilities of impact are low for the future such as tomorrow, in 10, 100 or a million years from now, this could actually be reality. Nevertheless, why should we care about the risks of these global catastrophic events today and what could be done to prevent or reduce the risk of a global catastrophe? In this paper we will discuss core content, such as different risks and ways to reduce them internationally, as well as the scientific context of the field. In fact, there are events that can be catastrophic on a global scale and happen in the near future, even if we do not know exactly when. Hence, specific risk assessment and proper mitigation strategies are necessary in order to maintain the human population. This article states that serious research is a basis for decision makers in particular, who invest funds in countermeasures.
41
Striessnig, Erich, Wolfgang Lutz, and Anthony Patt. "Effects of Educational Attainment on Climate Risk Vulnerability." The Resilience Alliance, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-05252-180116.
Full textAbstract:
In the context of still uncertain specific effects of climate change in specific locations, this paper examines whether education significantly increases coping capacity with regard to particular climatic changes, and whether it improves the resilience of people to climate risks in general. Our hypothesis is that investment in universal primary and secondary education around the world is the most effective strategy for preparing to cope with the still uncertain dangers associated with future climate. The empirical evidence presented for a cross-country time series of factors associated with past natural disaster fatalities since 1980 in 125 countries confirms this overriding importance of education in reducing impacts. We also present new projections of populations by age, sex, and level of educational attainment to 2050, thus providing an appropriate tool for anticipating societies' future adaptive capacities based on alternative education scenarios associated with different policies. (authors' abstract)
42
Reilly, Jacqueline. "Surgical wound infection : addressing the risk factors within a change theory framework." Thesis, Glasgow Caledonian University, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.322215.
Full text
43
Ardila, Gómez Arturo. "Transit planning in Curitiba and Bogotá : roles in interaction, risk, and change." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/28791.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2004."September 2004."
Includes bibliographical references (p. 425-454).
What is the role of planners in the planning process for new transit modes? By documenting transit-planning processes in Curitiba and Bogota from 1955-95 and 1986-2001, respectively, this work demonstrates that in both cities planners had important roles in system design, the inventive adaptation of new technologies to local conditions, the integration of newly proposed systems with existing service and, above all, mediation between political leadership and strong vested interests. Both cities put planners' roles in special context, however. First, the mayors had a firm appreciation of planning services and understood that planners needed to interact with stakeholders and politicians. Second, the mayors were strong leaders who offered planners a benchmark from which to understand the implications of stakeholders' demands. Third, these cases were framed by new technologies such as Bus Rapid Transit, which competed against rail alternatives. Fourth, because of the novelty of BRT planners had difficulty producing credible forecasts. This uncertainty forced planners to interact more with stakeholders and politicians to build credibility. Fifth, BRT offered the advantage of being highly flexible, particularly when compared to rail proposals. This flexibility allowed planners to adjust the plans in response to the feedback produced by the interaction with stakeholders and politicians. Adjusting the plans often forced planners to innovate. Within this context, planners' main role was to interact with politicians and stakeholders. The interaction was above all a source of feedback for all parties involved. Planners used this feedback, first, to mediate between politicians and stakeholders by reducing power differentials. If either actor
(cont.) were too powerful the planning process could not advance. Second, planners developed incremental adaptations to the original plan in light of the political reality unveiled by the interaction. The gradual adjustments to the original plan lowered risk for all parties. The adaptations and the reduced risk helped assemble coalitions of support. Planning teams with high levels of political capacity were able to interact with politicians and stakeholders. Planning teams also needed a high level of technical capacity to prevent stakeholders from capturing/co-opting the planning team.
by Arturo Ardila-Gómez.
Ph.D.
44
Gueneau, Arthur. "Crop water stress under climate change uncertainty : global policy and regional risk." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/78495.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (S.M. in Technology and Policy)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2012.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 113-121).
Fourty percent of all crops grown in the world today are grown using irrigation, and shifting precipitation patterns due to climate change are viewed as a major threat to food security. This thesis examines, in the framework of the MIT Integrated Global System Model, the potential impacts of climate change on crop water stress and the risk implications for policy makers due to underlying uncertainty in climate models. This thesis presents the Community Land Model - Agriculture module (CLM-AG) that models crop growth and water stress. It is a global generic crop model built in the framework of the Community Land Model and was evaluated for maize, cotton and spring wheat. A full climate model, the IGSM-CAM, was first used to force CLM-AG and show the regional disparity of the response to climate change. Some areas like the Midwest or Equatorial Africa benefit from the higher precipitations associated to climate change while others like Europe or Southern Africa see the irrigation need for crops increase. The effect of a mitigation policy appeared contrasted, as water-stress for some areas (including Europe and Africa) is increased if greenhouse gases emissions are limited while for other areas (Central Asia, United States) it is reduced. A second analysis was carried in Central Zambia using uncertainty ensembles. The ensembles demonstrate the notable extent of the uncertainty stemming from different climate sensitivities and different regional patterns in climate models. Crops are impacted differently but a consistent result is that climate mitigation policies reduce uncertainty in crop water stress, making it easier to plan for any anticipated future climate change.
by Arthur Gueneau.
S.M.in Technology and Policy
45
Bhatkoti, Roma. "Infrastructure Performance and Risk Assessment under Extreme Weather and Climate Change Conditions." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/81694.
Full textAbstract:
This dissertation explores the impact of climate change and extreme weather events on critical infrastructures as defined by US Department of Homeland Security. The focus is on two important critical infrastructure systems – Water and Transportation. Critical infrastructures are always under the risk of threats such as terrorist attacks, natural disasters, faulty management practices, regulatory policies, and defective technologies and system designs. Measuring the performance and risks of critical infrastructures is complex due to its network, geographic and dynamic characteristics and multiplicity of stakeholders associated with them. Critical infrastructure systems in crowded urban and suburban areas like the Washington Metropolitan Area (WMA) are subject to increased risk from geographic proximity. Moreover, climate is challenging the assumption of stationary (the idea that natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of variability) that is the foundation of water resource engineering and planning. Within this context, this research uses concepts of systems engineering such as 'systems thinking' and 'system dynamics' to understand, analyze, model, simulate, and critically assess a critical infrastructure system's vulnerability to extreme natural events and climate change. In most cases, transportation infrastructure is designed to withstand either the most extreme or close to the most extreme event that will add abnormal stresses on a physical structure. The system may fail to perform as intended if the physical structure faces an event larger than what it is designed for. The results of the transportation study demonstrate that all categories of roadways are vulnerable to climate change and that the magnitude of bridge vulnerability to future climate change is variable depending on which climate model projection is used. Results also show that urbanization and land use patterns affects the susceptibility of the bridge to failures. Similarly, results of the water study indicate that the WMA water supply system may suffer from water shortages accruing due to future droughts but climate change is expected to improve water supply reliability due to an upward trend in precipitation and streamflow.Ph. D.
46
Dash, Shirlana Norene. "Effectiveness of Practice Change From Risk Model to Safety Model at DHS." ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/5067.
Full textAbstract:
In 2012, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reported an estimated 686,000 victims of child abuse and neglect. Forty-nine states reported a total of 1,593 fatalities. This quantitative research study examined the relationship between the variables: age of child, gender of child, age of parent/caregiver, prior substantiated reports of abuse, and incidents of abuse in Philadelphia at the Department of Human Services using risk practice model (RPM) and safety practice model (SPM). Although child welfare practitioners have examined the relationship between family and societal factors that affect child abuse; few researchers have examined the correlation between service delivery practice models and incidents of abuse. The findings of this quantitative study examined 34,761 components of variable data from the Department of Human Services revealed that the age of the child, age of the caregiver, and incidents of abuse are statistically significant predictors of abuse, whereas the gender of child had minimal effect on incidents of abuse. The most accurate predictor of child abuse is prior substantiated reports of abuse. The study shows that reports received in 2007 using the RPM were 9.6% more likely to have a valid report; likewise, every report received during the years 2007 and 2012 increases the probability of a valid report by 94.2%. Development of a comprehensive assessment tool that combines the principle tenets of both RPM and SPM is recommended. The implications for social change include developing a practice model that can increase safety probabilities while diminishing incidents of abuse by using a more comprehensive assessment tool.
47
Williams, Guy. "Change in China's banking sector as an institutional evolution." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2017. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/269533.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis explains how China’s banking system has evolved since the establishment of the socialist market economy in 1993, when the state began to develop a more standardised and robust system of banking regulation and commercialise China’s state-owned banks. China’s large state-owned banks, which were technically insolvent in the 1990s, are now some of the biggest commercial banks in the world. There has been a remarkable transformation of systems of governance and risk management across all types of banking institutions. China has developed a system of financial regulation characterised by close supervision and strong regulation of financial institutions to mitigate risk and ensure the banking system serves the real economy. This thesis has relied on qualitative research to understand this change. Interviews of a number of past and present stakeholders in China’s banking system were undertaken, including officials from the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the agency responsible for the regulation and supervision of China’s banking system since 2003. The thesis also makes use of Chinese language texts which provide the views of Chinese political leaders and banking officials with respect to reform of the banking sector. The principal conclusion of the thesis is that the development of China’s banking system can best be understood as an evolution of institutions which reflect historical patterns of political and economic organisation in China. This finding is in contrast with the main body of academic literature which evaluates the development of China’s banking system according to its degree of conformance with a neoliberal economic system. The thesis argues that policy for China’s banking sector was conceived and implemented by officials through a politically united, centrally controlled bureaucracy reflective of China’s bureaucratic tradition. China’s leaders applied the concept of ‘Chinese studies at the base, Western studies for practical use’ (中體西用zhongti xiyong), when adapting Western ideas and technology within China’s traditional political and economic system to modernise the banking sector. The deep concern of officials for financial stability caused them to gradually and pragmatically adopt international standards of financial regulation and resist policies of financial liberalisation and deregulation which were advocated by self-interested Western-educated bankers and government officials.
48
Mythen, Gabe. "Living dangerously? : a critical examination of the risk society thesis." Thesis, Nottingham Trent University, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.343544.
Full text
49
Walker, Kenneth C. "Rhetorics of Uncertainty: Networked Deliberations in Climate Risk." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/556604.
Full textAbstract:
This dissertation applies a mixed-methods model across three cases of climate risk in order to examine the rhetorical dynamics of uncertainties. I argue that a rhetorical approach to uncertainties can effectively scaffold civic agency in risk communication by translating conflicting interests and creating sites of public participation. By tracing the networks of scientists and their artifacts through cases of climate risk, I demonstrate how the performances of scientific ethos and their material-discursive technologies facilitate the personalization of risk as a form of scientific prudence, and thus a channel to feasible political action. I support these claims through a rhetorical model of translation, which hybridizes methods from discourse analysis and Actor-Network Theory (ANT) in order assemble a data-driven and corpus-based approach to rhetorical analysis. From this rhetorical perspective uncertainties expand on our notions of risk because they reveal associations between scientific inquiries, probability assessments, and the facilitation of political dialogues. In each case, the particular insight of the model reveals a range of rhetorical potentials in climate risk that can be confronted through uncertainties.
50
Allston, Julie. "Factors characterizing stages of change for smoking during pregnancy: General risk knowledge, personal risk perceptions, motives, reasons and decisional balance." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/10284.
Full textAbstract:
A secondary analysis of data from a sample of pregnant smokers is described, which focuses on examining knowledge, attitudes and beliefs related to women's decision to continue smoking during pregnancy. Pregnant women are examined at each of the first three stages of change: women not considering quitting in the next six months (Precontemplation), women considering cessation in this time frame (Contemplation), and women planning on stopping smoking in the next 30 days (Preparation). Pregnant women (n = 2461) were surveyed in a cross-sectional convenience sample of prenatal clinic attendees in a city of approximately 350,000 people, over a one-year period. 32% of pregnant smokers were in the Precontemplation stage, 35% in Contemplation, and 33% in Preparation. In general, participants' level of knowledge was high about maternal and fetal risks of smoking during pregnancy. However, similar items assessing personal perceptions of risk showed that many women thought their personal risk was lower than pregnant smokers in general. Negative affect was the dominant motive, and Level 1 reasons (doubting the evidence of harm) were cited as being most important factors related to continued smoking. Overall, participants gave higher ratings to the cons of smoking than to the pros. Women in Preparation had significantly higher knowledge of risks from smoking during pregnancy than Contemplators, but did not differ significantly from Precontemplators, while Precontemplators did not differ significantly from Contemplators on this variable. Women in Preparation had a significantly higher personal perception of risk for the fetus of smoking during pregnancy than women in the other two stages. As expected, Precontemplators perceived significantly lower Cons of smoking than women in the other two stages, who did not differ significantly from each other. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)