Journal articles on the topic 'Risk management – Mathematical models'
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Prokopjeva, Evgenija, Evgeny Tankov, Tatyana Shibaeva, and Elena Perekhozheva. "Behavioral models in insurance risk management." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 18, no. 4 (October 21, 2021): 80–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.18(4).2021.08.
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Behavioral characteristics attributed to consumers of insurance services are a relevant factor for analyzing the current situation in the insurance market and developing effective strategies for insurers’ actions. In turn, considering these characteristics allows the insurer to be more successful in the highly competitive field, achieving mutual satisfaction in interacting with the customer. This study is aimed to develop cognitive models of the situation (frame) “Insurance”, taking into account the specifics of the Russian insurance market and systemic factors affecting participants’ behavior in the market. In this regard, the study involves systemizing risks at various levels of the economic system, generalizing factors for the motivation of insurance consumers, developing descriptive and economic-mathematical models for the behavior of economic entities in risky situations.The results obtained represent a behavioral model of interactions among insurance market entities, which determines opportunities for efficient and mutually beneficial coordination of their activities. The developed model includes the following elements: structured individual and institutional frames “Insurance”; a professional index of interest in insurance presented in the form of a mathematical model; methodology for governing the relationships among insurance participants in the digital environment.The recommendations enable predictions of the situation in the insurance market and allow most accurately defining the consumer needs in the conditions of market changes.
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Yarygina, I. Z., V. B. Gisin, and B. A. Putko. "Fractal Asset Pricing Models for Financial Risk Management." Finance: Theory and Practice 23, no. 6 (December 24, 2019): 117–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2019-23-6-117-130.
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The article presents the analysis findings of the problems and prospects of using the fractal markets theory to mathematically predict the price dynamics of assets as part of a financial risk management strategy. The aim of the article is to find out the features of value of bank assets and to develop recommendations for assessing financial risks based on mathematical methods for forecasting economic processes. Theoretical and empirical research methods were used to achieve the aim. The article reveals the features of mathematical modeling of economic processes related to asset pricing in a volatile market. It was proved that using financial mathematics in banking contributes to the stable development of the economy. Mathematical modeling of the price dynamics of financial assets is based on a substantive hypothesis and supported by an adequate apparatus of fractal pair pricing models in order to reveal specific market relations of business entities. According to the authors, the prospects of using forecast models to minimize the financial risks of derivative financial instruments are positive. The authors concluded that the considered methods contribute to managing financial risks and improving forecasts, including operations with derivatives. Besides, the studied fractal volatility parameters proved the predictive power regarding extreme events in financial markets, such as the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers investment bank in 2008. The relevance of the article is due to the fact that the favorable investment climate and the use of modern financing methods largely depend on the effective financial risk management.
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Bondareva, Irina Olegovna, Sabina M. Sidagalieva, and Evgeniya T. Nesterova. "MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN TRANSPORT LOGISTICS." Vestnik of Astrakhan State Technical University. Series: Management, computer science and informatics 2021, no. 2 (April 30, 2021): 75–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.24143/2072-9502-2021-2-75-88.
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The article considers the business processes at the transport logistics enterprises as
a chain of clear regulations, where noncompliance or delay of one of them results in disruption of the whole process. Risk management is one of the key tasks requiring the development of modeling tools and prevention of undesirable situations. There has been shown a structural model of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port, supplemented by several levels of consideration. The tree of goals of the transport logistics enterprise was built. Failure to achieve a particular goal is considered as a risk situation, or a risk. A set of factors for assessing its implementation is opposed to each goal, formulas for calculating the indicators used are given. A model of scenarios of all existing significant risks has been developed. A multi-level hybrid logical-probabilistic model, a cascade logical-probabilistic model and a multi-level cascade hybrid logical-probabilistic model of the risk of failure to achieve the main strategic goal of the port/transport enterprise are proposed. The main idea is the need to link together the technology of formalizing risks using the constructed logical-probabilistic models and simulation, where the interpretation of the results is possible using logical and probabilistic models and scenarios. The proposed models make it possible to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port based on the scenario formalization of risks of various levels of management, as well as to simplify the process of interpreting the results of simulation modeling taking into account external factors of influence. The integrated use of all these models is the basis for the development of timely management decisions. Particular attention is paid to the description of the technology for constructing logical, probabilistic and scenario models of various types.
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Ifrim, Ana Maria. "Mathematical Models in Quality Engineering." International Journal of Innovation in the Digital Economy 8, no. 3 (July 2017): 18–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijide.2017070102.
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The present paper deals with the factors that contribute to assuring the quality of the processes involved in project management. The novelty of the approach consists in the fact that the project management processes are analysed with the help of quality indicators in case of time variance. By studying the numeric variable for the proposed economic phenomenon, a smaller discrete interval is obtained, which accounts for the numeric variable being treated as a continuous variable. The practical application of such an analysis is that a risk management plan can be designed based on the parameters which define the quality of the management process.
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Stroev, S. P. "Mathematical models for insolvency risk management of an industrial enterprise." CONTINUUM. MATHS. INFORMATICS. EDUCATION, no. 2 (2021): 89–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.24888/2500-1957-2021-2-89-98.
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Ivanyo, Yaroslav, Nina Fedurina, and Zhanna Varanitsa-Gorodovskaya. "Mathematical models of agricultural production management in high risk environments." E3S Web of Conferences 222 (2020): 01018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202022201018.
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The paper presents an algorithm for modeling the production of agricultural products in the formation of agrometeorological events. Stochastic models of variability of downpours, early snow-fall and crop yields are constructed to assess the likelihood of extreme events. Based on a probabilistic assessment of crop bio-productivity by a normative method, economic losses from agrometeorological events are determined. A model for optimizing crop production taking into account natural risks was built and implemented for an agricultural organization. The results were obtained according to data of the Irkutsk district.
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Kortcheva, A., V. Galabov, J. Marinski, V. Andrea, and C. Stylios. "New approaches and mathematical models for environmental risk management in seaports." IFAC-PapersOnLine 51, no. 30 (2018): 366–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.11.333.
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Bochkovskyi, A. "OPTIMIZATION OF OCCUPATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT." Bulletin of Lviv State University of Life Safety, no. 17 (August 7, 2018): 32–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.32447/20784643.17.2018.04.
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The analysis of regulations in the field of labour safety and risks management was conducted. Several systemic methodological problems relevant to labour safety management system were identified. The main problems, complicating the realization of occupational risks management process are: uncertainty of purposes, complication of realization procedure and absence of tools for its optimization. To eliminate these problems optimal method of occupational risks management, based on mathematical models, was developed and proposed. Results of this study prove that the models should include indexes relatedto expenditures on occupational safety and also to harmful factors and their influence on an employee. The proposed models can be concidered as two optimization tasks, aiming at maximization of employee's safety together with the minimization of expenditures on occupational safety. These tasks are related to the convex programming and can be solved both with numerical methods and with the using of the standard MS Excel programme pack.
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Alazzam, Malik Bader, Abdulsattar Abdullah Hamad, and Ahmed S. AlGhamdi. "Dynamic Mathematical Models’ System and Synchronization." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2021 (November 19, 2021): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6842071.
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We created the equilibrium, which includes sickness outcomes, health and risk behaviors, environmental factors, and health-related assets and delivery systems, and it should be incorporated in system Dyc (dynamic) modelling of chronic disease prevention. System Dyc has the ability to model a variety of interconnected illnesses and dangers, as well as the interaction between delivery systems and afflicted people, as well as state and national policies. This paper proposes a unique idea. Hybrid synchronization utilizes four positive LYP (Lyapunov) exponents based on state feedback management with two identical systems of the Lorenz system 6D HYCH system.
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Khanlarzadeh, Sarvinaz. "Mathematical Modeling of the Risk Reinsurance Process." WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON MATHEMATICS 21 (June 20, 2022): 447–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/23206.2022.21.52.
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This paper presents a method for assessing financial risks and managing them to optimize the decision-making process. It is shown that the type of economic entity at risk and its activities in the financial market affect the specifics of financial risk management, which can be classified into three main groups: hedging, diversification, and insurance. The main instruments used for this purpose are also identified. Special attention is given to the dynamic properties of financial flows arising from the simulation of artificial financial instruments, as well as to their influence on the results of financial risk management when taking into account errors in estimating parameters of mathematical models. The purpose of our study is to create a mathematical model that can be used to assess the risk reinsurance process. We will create a mathematical model of the risk reinsurance process using the following steps: 1. Identify all of the relevant variables in our analysis. 2. Determine how these variables interact with each other and come to a conclusion about how they influence each other's values. 3. Find equations that represent these relationships between the variables and solve for their values with those equations. 4. Test these models against real data from known cases in order to ensure that they work as expected, then use them for future studies or applications requiring this type of modeling technique.
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Kostyuchenko, Mikhail, Volodymyr Gogo, Boris Kobilyansky, Oleg Kruzhilko, Ihor Yefremov, Kyrylo Hriadushchyi, and Oleksandr Tkachuk. "ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION RISK ON EXAMPLES OF MINERS ‘LABOR." JOURNAL of Donetsk Mining Institute, no. 2 (2021): 159–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.31474/1999-981x-2021-2-159-175.
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Objective: Based on the review of the array of publications to analyze the methods and models of general risk assessment, the nature of industrial risks and management processes on the examples of labor of coal miners. Propose a classification of mathematical models of industrial risk and identify the most appropriate model for the work of miners in the stochastic system “man-machine-environment”. Methodology: Applied to the use of situational analysis, qualimetry, probability theory and risk theory, methods of classification of occupational risks. Results: Based on a systematic analysis of multifactorial risks of emergency situations, the essence of industrial risks and management processes on the examples of coal miners, the dominant causes of industrial risk in the ergatic system (“man – machine – environment”), models and methods of risk research. Scientific novelty: For the first time on the basis of the analysis of the reasons, dynamics and consequences of industrial risks the classification of mathematical models of risks which are adapted to ergatic systems of mine production is offered. Practical value: The need for adequate practical application of risk methods and models for the assessment and measurement of industrial hazards has been proven.
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Orlov, A. I. "Mathematical methods for studying risks (resumptive article)." Industrial laboratory. Diagnostics of materials 87, no. 11 (November 21, 2021): 70–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.26896/1028-6861-2021-87-11-70-80.
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We define risk as an unwanted opportunity and divide risk theory into three stages — risk analysis, risk estimation, risk management. Safety and risk are directly related to each other, being like a «mirror image» of each other which necessitates developing both the general theory of risk and particular theories of risk in specific areas. General risk theory allows for a uniform approach to the analysis, estimation and management of risks in specific situations. Currently, three main approaches to accounting for the uncertainty and describing risks are used — probabilistic and statistical approach, fuzzy sets, and the approach based on interval mathematics. The methods of risk estimation primarily based on probabilistic and statistical models are considered. The mathematical apparatus for estimating and managing risks is based on nonparametric formulations, limit relations, and multi-criteria optimization. Asymptotic nonparametric point estimates and confidence limits for the probability of a risk event are constructed on the base of binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution. Rules for testing statistical hypotheses regarding the equality (or difference) of two probabilities of risk events are proposed. An additive-multiplicative risk estimation model based on a hierarchical risk system based on a three-level risk system has become widespread: private risks — group risks — final risk. For this model, the role of expert estimation is revealed. The prospects of using (in the future) the theory of fuzzy sets are shown. The article deals with the main components of the mathematical apparatus of the theory of risks, in particular, the mathematical support of private theories of risks related to the quality management, innovations and investments. The simplest risk assessment in a probabilistic-statistical model is the product of the probability of a risk event and the mathematical expectation of the accidental damage. Mathematical and instrumental methods for studying global economic and environmental risks are discussed.
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BUCUR, Amelia. "SOME ASPECTS ABOUT MATHEMATICAL MODELING FOR EPIDEMIC MANAGEMENT." Management of Sustainable Development 13, no. 2 (December 1, 2021): 19–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.54989/msd-2021-0012.
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The mathematical study of epidemics and their management has been performed for many years, however, in the last few years, new models have been published. Public health is considered very important and has to be monitored, as it is permanently under risk due to the appearance of even more types of microorganisms. Compartmental models, such as exponential models, SI, SIS, SIR, SEIRS, SEIAR, MESIR models, other generalized SIR models were and still are remarkable for studying the spread of an epidemic and for their simulations in software such as MATLAB, Maple, GLEAMviz, etc. The paper has two main objectives: a. to present new simulations in Maple and GLEAMviz for the spread of COVID-19; b. to suggest a generalization of the SIR model for analyzing the spread of COVID-19 and a simulation of it in GLEAMviz. The conclusions are that, generally, mathematical models show a value of a reproduction threshold, which can be used to forecast whether the pandemic is the increasing or decreasing phase, and that mathematical models and simulations in various programs facilitate the improvement of methods of analysis of an epidemic situation and the management of the public health system.
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Liu, Qing Jie, and Qi Li Su. "Risk Management of Building Engineering Based on SVM." Advanced Materials Research 529 (June 2012): 347–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.529.347.
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As the rapid development of China’s national economy, China’s construction industry shows a rapid growth. Because construct project has the feature of large investment and long construction time, there are many unforeseen factors in the construction process. The project participants may face many risks. This paper firstly analyses risk factors of construction project, secondly describes the mathematical models—SVM, and then on the basis of the method builds the model of construction project risk prediction. Lastly it uses example to prove the feasibility of the model, and it also provides an effective method for the construction project risk management.
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Hasanov, Niyazi, Tokhtaposha Akbulaeva, Kamal Ahmadov, and Akram Hasanzadeh. "Application of Management Based on Mathematical Models to Solve Investment Strategy Problems." WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS 19 (May 6, 2022): 1130–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/23207.2022.19.99.
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This article analyzes the emergence of large investment opportunities for the development of different areas of the economy in the context of political and economic changes in a competitive environment of the market economy and its relevance shows itself in the underdevelopment of risk analysis and its experimental methodology with the need to improve quality of investment activity, as well as project decision making, the contradictions between the possibility and impossibility of achieving the planned outcome and application of management based on mathematical models to solve investment strategy problems of firms and companies in this field. Application of management based on mathematical models to solve investment strategy problems, development and intensification of risk analysis theory and specification of strategy for purpose, the introduction of practice to the process of making investment decisions and efficient recommendations were developed and ways to reach the goals were designated for all the activities and measures taken in this direction. The action process is established based on the solution of made decisions and proved its compatibility with the pre-defined trajectory based on strategic opinions and occurrence time of the existing and principally indefinite, mentioned relevant events, the efficiency of application of management based on mathematical models to solve investment strategy problems. Analysis methods have been establishetod to apply management based on mathematical models to solve relevant problems in the market economy and suggestions and recommendations for its practical usage in investment-project activity have proved that economic-mathematical models are efficient tools.
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Mohammed-Ali, Wesam S., and Rafal S. Khairallah. "Review for Some Applications of Riverbanks Flood Models." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1120, no. 1 (December 1, 2022): 012039. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1120/1/012039.
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Abstract The flood risk management is one of the primary concerns in water resources engineering. The flood occurs as a result of unexpected events in the hydrological cycle, such as rainfall in the upstream tributaries of the rivers. However, engineers have to have a precise tool to manage the risk of flood. Nowadays and due to the tremendous revolution in computers, which helps to build a credible mathematical models, management of flood become doable. In fact, expressive which model should be used is the challenge. This paper aims to review several hydraulics models that used in flood risk management.
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Frolova, Nina, Valery Larionov, Jean Bonnin, Sergey Suchshev, Alexander Ugarov, and Nataliya Malaeva. "Impact database application for natural and technological risk management." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 1 (January 13, 2020): 95–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-95-2020.
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Abstract. Impact database development and application for risk analysis and management promote the usage of self-learning computer systems with elements of artificial intelligence. Such system learning could be successful when the databases store the complete information about each event, parameters of the simulation models, the range of its application, and residual errors. Each new description included in the database could increase the reliability of the results obtained with application of simulation models. The calibration of mathematical models is the first step to self-learning of automated systems. The article describes the events' database structure and examples of calibrated computer models as applied to the impact of expected emergencies and risk indicator assessment. Examples of database statistics usage in order to rank the subjects of the Russian Federation by the frequency of emergencies of different character as well as risk indicators are given.
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Galli, Brian J. "Economic Decision Making and Risk Management in a Project Management Environment." International Journal of Applied Logistics 10, no. 2 (July 2020): 1–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijal.2020070101.
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In today's uncertain business environment, companies must evaluate risk for projects before making business decisions. For example, one can use the SMART method. Also, Gantt charts help the project manager to schedule and plan, which helps in decision-making for the project. Technology has created software for discovering the probability of the risk with algorithms and many mathematical methods. However, pre-existing literature does not show how these variables, their concepts, and models help in project management, which has resulted in a research gap. Thus, this study addresses the most current variables, their concepts, and models within operations and project management. With a design-science-investigate strategy, the authors approve a valuable growth reveal for reasonable and hypothetical application. Thus, they create a suitable assessment model to fill the research void, as well as to contribute to the engineering field by improving the project success rates and helping with team communication.
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Ghamami, Samim. "Static models of central counterparty risk." International Journal of Financial Engineering 02, no. 02 (June 2015): 1550011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2424786315500115.
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Following the 2009 G-20 clearing mandate, international standard setting bodies (SSBs) have outlined a set of principles for central counterparty (CCP) risk management. They have also devised formulaic CCP risk capital requirements on clearing members for their central counterparty exposures. There is still no consensus among CCP regulators and bank regulators on how central counterparty risk should be measured coherently in practice. A conceptually sound and logically consistent definition of the CCP risk capital in the absence of a unifying CCP risk measurement framework is challenging. Incoherent CCP risk capital requirements may create an obscure environment disincentivizing the central clearing of over the counter (OTC) derivatives transactions. Based on novel applications of well-known mathematical models in finance, this paper introduces a risk measurement framework that coherently specifies all layers of the default waterfall resources of typical derivatives CCPs. The proposed framework gives the first risk sensitive definition of the CCP risk capital based on which less risk sensitive non-model-based methods can be evaluated.
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Ferreira, João Batista, and Luiz Gonzaga Castro Junior. "Risk analysis model and agricultural derivative market use." Independent Journal of Management & Production 12, no. 8 (December 1, 2021): 2508–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.14807/ijmp.v12i8.1499.
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This research aims to build conceptual guidelines regarding price risk management through the agricultural derivatives market. Specifically, to identify the common price risk management methods and strategies employed, the risk analysis models of derivative markets, and the barriers to agricultural risk management. This is an integrative review, the search for literature on the models of risk management analysis of agricultural derivatives started by listing the largest possible number of keywords on the topic, in the Scopus and Web of Science. Forty-five publications were found meeting the pre-established criteria that served as the basis for this research. Based on the literature review, we list the main information on the subject and we also propose a theoretical model for analyzing the market risks of agricultural derivatives. Still, it was possible to notice that among the methodologies for measuring market risk, Value at Risk (VaR) stands out. We exemplify and demonstrate the existence of several statistical analyzes and mathematical models, as well as software available for the management of price risks. It is concluded that strategies with the futures and options market, even though they are the most efficient for risk management, lack incentives to become practical.
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Mamunts, D., S. Sokolov, A. Nyrkov, S. Chernyi, M. Bukhurmetov, and V. Kuznetsov. "Models and Algorithms for Estimation and Minimization of the Risks Associated with Dredging." Transport and Telecommunication Journal 18, no. 2 (June 1, 2017): 139–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ttj-2017-0013.
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Abstract There are a lot of models and algorithms to minimize risks during dredging operations and they are not without drawbacks. The paper describes the authors’ approach to solving this problem. Mathematical models are proposed and on their basis software is developed. Methods of the risk theory are used to minimize the risks. In this paper a consequence of influence refers to the deviation from the goal expressed in the expected results and the deviation of certain criterion factors. In this case, we mean any measure of quality. In its turn, risk factors reduce criterion factors. These factors are divided into categories - general transportation risks and risks of transporting ground. In these categories, one may derive the following risks - incidents at transport resulting from the impact of a set of random factors including the human one. For risk analysis and management, in addition to identifying critical chains of risk situations, the stochastic model for evaluating the chains is set forth. In order to implement this algorithm, the mathematical package Maple is used, which allows for conducting the required calculations with a software package including the Graph Theory. The paper presents fragments of the code listing.
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Bekri, Mahmoud, Young Shin (Aaron) Kim, and Svetlozar (Zari) T. Rachev. "Tempered stable models for Islamic finance asset management." International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management 7, no. 1 (April 14, 2014): 37–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/imefm-10-2012-0096.
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Purpose – In Islamic finance (IF), the safety-first rule of investing (hifdh al mal) is held to be of utmost importance. In view of the instability in the global financial markets, the IF portfolio manager (mudharib) is committed, according to Sharia, to make use of advanced models and reliable tools. This paper seeks to address these issues. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the limitations of the standard models used in the IF industry are reviewed. Then, a framework was set forth for a reliable modeling of the IF markets, especially in extreme events and highly volatile periods. Based on the empirical evidence, the framework offers an improved tool to ameliorate the evaluation of Islamic stock market risk exposure and to reduce the costs of Islamic risk management. Findings – Based on the empirical evidence, the framework offers an improved tool to ameliorate the evaluation of Islamic stock market risk exposure and to reduce the costs of Islamic risk management. Originality/value – In IF, the portfolio manager – mudharib – according to Sharia, should ensure the adequacy of the mathematical and statistical tools used to model and control portfolio risk. This task became more complicated because of the increase in risk, as measured via market volatility, during the financial crisis that began in the summer of 2007. Sharia condemns the portfolio manager who demonstrates negligence and may hold him accountable for losses for failing to select the proper analytical tools. As Sharia guidelines hold the safety-first principle of investing rule (hifdh al mal) to be of utmost importance, the portfolio manager should avoid speculative investments and strategies that would lead to significant losses during periods of high market volatility.
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Dumitru, Constantin, Violeta Dumitru, and Mirela Cherciu. "Mathematical Modeling of Management Decision Activities with Maximum Risk in the Intelligent Robotic Systems." Advanced Materials Research 463-464 (February 2012): 1260–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.463-464.1260.
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The aim of shaping management empathy is to know future specialists performance and their improvement in human-computer-machine dialogue. Therefore, we’ve defined the concept of management empathy and we’ve built fuzzy models that allowed the quantification of the empathic level manager-executed in the idea of increasing human elements of the correlation educator-teacher. Management decisions in the final forms benefit both from the archemic-systemic design and the mathematical models able to quantify intelligent robotic systems to its highest performance. This goal requires minimum effort and efficiency as high as possible in the processes and robotic systems. The final optimal solution fully reflects the innovative archemic-system design if and only if the information entropy of intelligent robotic systems is minimal under full compliance with environmental restrictions.
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Uandykova, M. K. "System Models of Risk Management in the Formation of Programs of Innovative Development of the Region." MIR (Modernization. Innovation. Research) 10, no. 4 (December 30, 2019): 487–500. http://dx.doi.org/10.18184/2079-4665.2019.10.4.487-500.
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Purpose: the aim of the work is to study the risks of innovative development of regions and industries, develop systemic risk management models in the formation and implementation of innovative development programs in the region.Methods: the work used general scientific methods and approaches to research, such as analysis, comparison, generalization, optimization methods. Methodological approaches of risk management models include concepts, approaches aimed at the problems of risk management in the formation and implementation of regional innovative development programs, studied in domestic and foreign literature; mathematical apparatus of dichotomous and network programming.Results: the article provides a methodological justification and description of the criteria aspects of managing such tasks, risk analysis, develops a theory of project risks of a complex of innovative development programs for regions, presents models for assessing complex risk of a program, gives a statement of the problem of risk management and the formation of multi-purpose programs taking into account complex risks, as well as limitations for financing medium-risk and high-risk programs, algorithms for solving the risk management problem by dichotomous methods and networks are presented of programming. The transition from program-targeted management to integrated (joint system use of the project and scenario approaches) was completed, which allowed us to consider them holistically, form a complex of projects–programs, apply risk management mechanisms based on qualitative assessments and propose quantitative models for managing project and program risks of a program complex.Conclusions and Relevance: the proposed approach can be used in the formation and implementation of many program-targeted documents of the state and regional level with the transition to project management, as a tool for analysis and accounting of risks.
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Kruzhilko, O., N. Volodchenkova, V. Maystrenko, B. Bolibrukh, V. Kalinchyk, A. Zakora, A. Feshchenko, and S. Yeremenko. "Mathematical modelling of professional risk at Ukrainian metallurgical industry enterprises." Journal of Achievements in Materials and Manufacturing Engineering 1, no. 108 (September 1, 2021): 35–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0015.4797.
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Purpose: To develop a more advanced methodology, the application of which will provide an informational and computational and analytical basis for planning and implementing effective preventive measures aimed at minimizing occupational risks with limited resources, as well as in the absence of organizational and technical capabilities to create absolutely safe working conditions Design/methodology/approach: For the study, statistical data were used that obtained from enterprises of the metallurgical industry of Ukraine. Research methods: analysis and generalization of known scientific results, methods of statistical analysis, mathematical modelling, expert assessments and decision theory. Findings: The results of experimental studies have confirmed the possibility of an objective assessment of various options for the OSH management strategy, which allows justifying the allocation of funds for OSH in the required amounts. It is shown that professional risk management strategies are characterized by different efficiency in the use of available financial resources, and the most effective strategy is one that allows you to minimize the level of risk (in comparison with other strategies) with the same amount of funding. Research limitations/implications: The study focuses on enterprises of the metallurgical industry in Ukraine. Practical implications: The application of the developed mathematical models demonstrates the effectiveness of financing certain preventive and protective measures, and stimulates the head to ensure industrial safety. Originality/value: The developed mathematical models allow justifying the allocation of funds for OSH in the required amounts.
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Trinh, Yen Thuan, and Bernard Hanzon. "An introduction to Monte Carlo-Tree (MC-Tree) method." Boolean 2022 VI, no. 1 (December 6, 2022): 94–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.33178/boolean.2022.1.16.
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The article aims to introduce concepts in option pricing and risk management. Pricing and risk management is one of the fundamental problems in financial mathematics. Then readers may explore further to understand how to use mathematical models in pricing and risk management. More specifically, our research introduces a new method called Monte Carlo-Tree (MC-Tree), for option pricing and risk management with high accuracy.
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Kekytė, Ieva, and Viktorija Stasytytė. "Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models." Mokslas - Lietuvos ateitis 9, no. 2 (June 2, 2017): 197–208. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/mla.2017.1023.
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Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.
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Levin, S. F. "Inadequacy for mathematical models of measurement objects and risk calculations according to ISO/IEC 17025-2019." Izmeritel`naya Tekhnika, no. 7 (2020): 13–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.32446/0368-1025it.2020-7-13-21.
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The problem of inadequacy of mathematical models of measurement objects is considered in connection with the problem of “definitional uncertainty of measurement” and the need for risk management in accordance with GOST ISO/IEC 17025-2019 “General requirements for the competence of testing and calibration laboratories”. The prehistory of the problem is described: from the formation of moment and compositional approaches to estimating accuracy to the introduction of a special term “inadequacy error for mathematical model of measurement object”. The negative impact of hopelessness of conceptual and terminological transformations in metrology and critical contradiction of the applicability estimates for “statistical methods” of GOST R ISO/IEC 31010-2011 “Risk management – Risk assessment techniques” and “Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement” is noted. It is shown that taking into account the inadequacy of probabilistic models in risk calculations is a necessary condition for results reliability.
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Shuryak, Igor. "Enhancing low-dose risk assessment using mechanistic mathematical models of radiation effects." Journal of Radiological Protection 39, no. 4 (September 27, 2019): S1—S13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1361-6498/ab3101.
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Tedeschi, Luís Orlindo, Danny Gene Fox, Roberto Daniel Sainz, Luís Gustavo Barioni, Sérgio Raposo de Medeiros, and Celso Boin. "Mathematical models in ruminant nutrition." Scientia Agricola 62, no. 1 (January 2005): 76–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s0103-90162005000100015.
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Mathematical models can be used to improve performance, reduce cost of production, and reduce nutrient excretion by accounting for more of the variation in predicting requirements and feed utilization in each unique production situation. Mathematical models can be classified into five or more categories based on their nature and behavior. Determining the appropriate level of aggregation of equations is a major problem in formulating models. The most critical step is to describe the purpose of the model and then to determine the appropriate mix of empirical and mechanistic representations of physiological functions, given development and evaluation dataset availability, inputs typically available and the benefits versus the risks of use associated with increased sensitivity. We discussed five major feeding systems used around the world. They share common concepts of energy and nutrient requirement and supply by feeds, but differ in structure and application of the concepts. Animal models are used for a variety of purposes, including the simple description of observations, prediction of responses to management, and explanation of biological mechanisms. Depending upon the objectives, a number of different approaches may be used, including classical algebraic equations, predictive empirical relationships, and dynamic, mechanistic models. The latter offer the best opportunity to make full use of the growing body of knowledge regarding animal biology. Continuing development of these types of models and computer technology and software for their implementation holds great promise for improvements in the effectiveness with which fundamental knowledge of animal function can be applied to improve animal agriculture and reduce its impact on the environment.
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Sivakova, Lenka, Anna Zubkova, and Witalis Pellowski. "Application of a Priori and a Posteriori Estimate on Risk Assessment." Communications - Scientific letters of the University of Zilina 20, no. 2 (June 30, 2018): 56–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.26552/com.c.2018.2.56-61.
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The problem of setting the values and interconnections between elements of the models in the safety, protection and security field, appears as the biggest obstacle in taking crisis management decisions. The article attempts to represent a mathematical approach to modify the expected values and interconnections that can occur in the models describing the protected system in order to minimize errors caused by subjectivity. Here presented procedures are described in the examples of their potential use. The main idea is to focus on improving estimates for better response to reality, then to find new estimates, since those would still be weighed down by the subjectivity caused errors. Based on this premise this article attempts to characterize application of mathematical methods on minimizing the subjectivity caused errors in the models in risk assessment.
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Rozhina, Viktoria D. "CREDIT RISK ASSESSMENT MODELS AT THE BEHAVIOR-SCORING STAGE." EKONOMIKA I UPRAVLENIE: PROBLEMY, RESHENIYA 7/1, no. 127 (2022): 128–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2022.07.01.013.
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Credit risk management is one of the most important tasks in banking risk management. Credit risk is the possibility of financial losses if the borrower fails to fulfill its obligations in a timely manner and in full, in particular as a result of a delay or non-repayment of a payment on a banking product. This article is devoted to the search for optimal methods for assessing the main component of the credit risk model - the probability of default of the borrower (PD) at the stage of building behavioral models. The paper considers two blocks of mathematical models - quantitative and classification. The object of the study is a portfolio of homogeneous loans of a commercial bank, the subject is the dynamics of the exit of the considered contracts into default. As an effective approach, the author proposes an integrated method for introducing the forecast result obtained using migration matrices as a new variable for the scoring model. Namely, revealing the depth of delinquency, upon reaching which borrowers do not improve the quality of the loan, as a separate predictor that helps to improve the scoring result.
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A. Bogatenkov, S., V. A. Belevitin, and M. L. Khasanova. "Risk Management Based on Model of Competences when Introducing Innovative Information Technology." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 4.38 (December 3, 2018): 78. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.38.24324.
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Economic expediency and attractiveness of life quality improving are accompanied by risks of increasing instability and possible collapse of the world system. Forecasts of the labour market change connected with automation of working places and mass unemployment cause concerns. The task of risk management in the personnel training system for introduction of new information technology is considered. The purpose of the research is development of the methodology based on the models of competences including requirements for safe application of information-measuring systems, as well as for an education level, work experience and permit-to-work documents in new conditions. A complex of new mathematical models, methods and technologies providing safety of the process of information technology introduction owing to the systemic approach to risk minimization is taken as a basis of the methodology. Invariant models provide economic effectiveness of processes of designing the system of safety and planning of educational paths. Models of personal paths of development and classes of competences provide didactic safety. Decision-making methods provide information, psychological, social and economic safety of the process of information technology introduction. The methodology is realised when introducing distance learning technologies in educational organisations of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region.
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Kazaryan, R., N. Galaeva, R. Avetisyan, and Sh Aliev. "Building lifecycle management based on 4D modelling as the main workspace for building risk assessment." E3S Web of Conferences 224 (2020): 02023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202022402023.
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The use of information technology in the management of construction projects has become a decisive factor for the successful completion of projects, taking into account time, quality and financial costs. There are challenges in visualizing the planning process and integrating information between stakeholders. The paper considers some aspects of the development trend of information technology in construction. The element base, including the risks arising during the design and construction, associated with the direct use of computer and mathematical models of the object in the design is considered. The generated information models will provide basic information for the participants in the design process, which ultimately will be the basis of the element base of an effective tool for ensuring project life cycle management. The following methods were used: system analysis, logical-mathematical modelling, systems theory, economic-visual modelling, research methods of operations, economic and mathematical methods. A basic block diagram of 4D modelling is presented to minimize the occurrence of risks during design. The model allows considering the possibility of assessing the duration of the project, the level of labour productivity, as well as visualizing the construction process. The presented analysis indicates the importance of using 4D modelling in relation to the life cycle of the object in order to prevent the possibility of construction risks.
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Vigodchikova, I. Y. "About the Management of the Pension Accumulation Taking into the Risk’s Control." Izvestiya of Saratov University. Economics. Management. Law 13, no. 2 (2013): 227–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.18500/1994-2540-2013-13-2-227-232.
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Introduction. To stably receive a high enough retirement in the future, the individual should early start to make pension savings and efficiently and deliberately be engaged in pension schemes not only to return but also to increase his/her savings. For this, pension savings schemes should be analyzed from the viewpoint of personal preferences and effective interest rates, and the risks of possible losses due to the activity of pension funds should be taken into account. The aim of this work is to develop recommendations for the individual to play an active role in the management of his/her pension savings and offer a mathematically-based model for making decisions on the structure of savings. To achieve this object, a version of pension savings is considered on the basis of preliminary analysis of pension funds’ performance indicators and making decisions on entering pension schemes by comparison of the investment risk (due to instable financial indicators) and the effective interest rate of the pension scheme selected. Methods. A number of new mathematical models of pension schemes and a new method of pension savings optimization on the basis of the uniform distribution of the risk of investment are proposed. Results. A model example of pension savings is provided with the account of the equitable distribution of the investment risk in three funds. Conclusion. To reduce risks, the participant himself can manage his/ her savings portfolio, entering several pension funds simultaneously and taking into account his/her assessments of profitability and risks. For this, it is desirable to develop an investment risk estimation system. It is advisable to take an appropriate effective interest rate as the profitableness of a pension scheme. The work presents a mathematical model for the management structure of pension savings and demonstrates its application. The obtained solution on the structure of savings can remain unchanged for a number of years, and may vary by reviewing main parameters and indicators of the risk of pension schemes.
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Horoshkova, Lidiia, Vladimir Volkov, and Іevhen Khlobystov. "Mathematical interpretation of risk-management methodology for natural-economic systems." University Economic Bulletin, no. 43 (November 20, 2019): 89–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.31470/2306-546x-2019-43-89-99.
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Actuality of research theme. Nowadays conditions of implementation of administrative-territorial reform on the basis of decentralization, the problem of forming a methodology of decision-making taking into account the specifics of the processes taking place in the country becomes especially relevant. After all, the future of Ukrainian society depends on the success of the decisions made in the process of implementing the reforms of the state socio-economic management and the restructuring of the territorial organization of the business entities on the basis of decentralization. Problem statement. For providing of efficiency of reformation of territorial organization of management and administrative-territorial device new models, instruments and mechanisms of management and making decision, which will provide steady development of territories, regions and state, on the whole, are needed in Ukraine. For this reason, there is a necessity of perfection of methodology of making decision on principles of risk management, which will allow maximally to take into account the specific of process of decentralization of power and provide harmonious and effective combination of interests of the interested parties. Analysis of the last researches and publications. Such scientists are engaged in the modern aspects of decision of problems of decentralization and reformation of administrative-territorial device in a country, as Pavliuk A. P., Oliinyk D. I., Batalov O. A., Datsko O. I., Murkovych L. L., Molodozhen Yu. B. and other [1-4]. The results of own researches of problem are in to [5-11]. Selection of unexplored parts of general issue. The question of process control of decentralization on the basis of acceptance of effective decisions needs the special attention and deep both theoretical and practical, researches. Consequently there is a requirement in development of methodology of concordance, making and estimation of decisions, in the conditions of vagueness and risk of origin of negative events and circumstances which are stipulated the national specific of decentralization. Task statement, research aim. By the above-mentioned circumstances the predefined expedience of forming of methodology of risk-management naturally-economic systems on the example of the incorporated territorial societies. Method or methodology of realization of research. In the process of realization researches drawn on scientific (analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analytical grouping) and special (abstracting, economical-mathematical design, etc.) methods of study of the economic phenomena and processes. Exposition of basic material (job performances). It is in-process well-proven that risk-management naturally-economic systems to the number of which the united territorial communities (OTСs) belong, must take into account their specific. It is predefined that in practice of evaluation of the economic phenomena and processes in naturally-economic systems of the use of traditional methods it is not always possible. The use of tool of fuzzy set theory is for this reason offered. It is shown that the search of optimum mechanisms of adjusting of investment processes at regional level remains an urgent necessity. Above all things it touches territorial societies, as traditional mechanisms of management investment resources, as practice shows, do not provide necessary efficiency. Well-proven expedience for the estimation of the real investment projects which are offered the incorporated territorial societies, to use the mathematical vehicle of fuzzy set theory, when experts can estimate certain part of parameters of project. It is set that in the modern terms of reformation of administrative-territorial device and decentralization of power in Ukraine need the special attention of problem of management a housing-municipal services, as his maintenance is provided by local public authorities and created in the process of reformation the united territorial communities (OTСs). It is suggested to use the theory of fuzzy set theory at the estimation of quality of housing-municipal services. Conclusions. In-process the well-proven expedience of development of new tool of acceptance and estimation of decisions is taking into account the features of process of decentralization of power in Ukraine. It is set that the use of mathematical vehicle of fuzzy set theory is in relation to the estimation of investment projects, will be instrumental in the increase of authenticity of prognosis calculations in relation to economic and social efficiency of the programs and projects of management territories. The well-proven expedience of the use of fuzzy set theory for the estimation of quality of housing-municipal services. It will allow to take into account simultaneously quantitative and high-quality indexes that will be instrumental in the increase of level of efficiency of functioning of housing-municipal services in the united territorial communities.
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Mazzoccoli, Alessandro, and Maurizio Naldi. "An Overview of Security Breach Probability Models." Risks 10, no. 11 (November 17, 2022): 220. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks10110220.
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Cybersecurity breach probability functions describe how cybersecurity investments impact the actual vulnerability to cyberattacks through the probability of success of the attack. They essentially use mathematical models to make cyber-risk management choices. This paper provides an overview of the breach probability models that appear in the literature. For each of them, the form of the mathematical functions and their properties are described. The models exhibit a wide variety of functional relationships between breach probability and investments, including linear, concave, convex, and a mixture of the latter two. Each model describes a parametric family, with some models have a single parameter, and others have two. A sensitivity analysis completes the overview to identify the impact of the model parameters: the estimation of the parameters which have a larger influence on the breach probability is more critical and deserves greater attention.
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SCHAFFNER, DONALD W. "Utilization of Mathematical Models To Manage Risk of Holding Cold Food without Temperature Control." Journal of Food Protection 76, no. 6 (June 1, 2013): 1085–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.4315/0362-028x.jfp-12-424.
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This document describes the development of a tool to manage the risk of the transportation of cold food without temperature control. The tool uses predictions from ComBase predictor and builds on the 2009 U.S. Food and Drug Administration Model Food Code and supporting scientific data in the Food Code annex. I selected Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes as the organisms for risk management. Salmonella spp. were selected because they are associated with a wide variety of foods and grow rapidly at temperatures >17°C. L. monocytogenes was selected because it is frequently present in the food processing environment, it was used in the original analysis contained in the Food Code Annex, and it grows relatively rapidly at temperatures <17°C. The suitability of a variety of growth models under changing temperature conditions is largely supported by the published literature. The ComBase predictions under static temperature conditions were validated using 148 ComBase database observations for Salmonella spp. and L. monocytogenes in real foods. The times and temperature changes encompassed by ComBase Predictor models for Salmonella spp. and L. monocytogenes are consistent with published data on consumer food transport to the home from the grocery store and on representative foods from a wholesale cash and carry food service supplier collected as part of this project. The resulting model-based tool will be a useful aid to risk managers and customers of wholesale cash and carry food service suppliers, as well as to anyone interested in assessing and managing the risks posed by holding cold foods out of temperature control in supermarkets, delis, restaurants, cafeterias, and homes.
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Калашников, П. В. "On the problem of building adequate mathematical models of risk management in the operation of complex unique responsible systems." Vestnik of Russian New University. Series «Complex systems: models, analysis, management», no. 3 (October 7, 2022): 46–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.18137/rnu.v9187.22.03.p.046.
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Описывается математическая модель управления рисками, возникающими в процессе функционирования сложных технических систем ответственного назначения в условиях неполноты и неопределенности информации о параметрах и фазовом состоянии. Цель исследования – разработка индивидуальной оптимальной стратегии управления рисковыми событиями, возникающими в ходе работы сложных технических систем, предполагающая минимизацию величины ущерба, связанного с рисками, а также наименьший размер затрат, возникающих в связи с профилактическими и контрольноизмерительными работами в течение всего периода эксплуатации. Задачи исследования – построение математической модели управления рисками в процессе функционирования сложных динамических технических систем ответственного назначения в условиях интервальной неопределенности о параметрах и фазовом состоянии, разработка методов индивидуального прогнозирования изменения состояния рассматриваемого класса систем. Дается сравнительная характеристика эффективности применения математического аппарата теории выбросов случайных процессов и метода индивидуального прогноза при решении задачи управления рисками, возникающими при эксплуатации сложных технических систем ответственного назначения в условиях неопределенности. На основе методов статистики интервальных данных создана математическая модель управления рисками, учитывающая возможные погрешности при измерении значений параметров рассматриваемого класса сложных систем на всех окнах контроля в течение периода эксплуатации. Научная новизна предлагаемого подхода заключается в применении статистики интервальных данных, позволяющих наиболее точно учитывать возможные погрешности, связанные с замерами значений параметров изучаемых технических систем на всех этапах контроля. Построенная в ходе проведенного исследования математическая модель управления рисками при работе сложных технических систем ответственного назначения дает возможность сделать выбор оптимальной стратегии управления рисками при эксплуатации объектов данного класса. Разработан алгоритм прогноза изменения состояния технической системы в течение всего периода работы на основе аппарата статистики интервальных данных, позволяющий учитывать погрешности при измерении основных параметров рассматриваемой системы на всех этапах процесса управления. The paper describes a mathematical model for control risks arising in the course of the operation of complex technical systems of responsible purpose in the context of incompleteness and uncertainty of information about parameters and phase state. The aim of the study is to develop an individual optimal strategy for control risk events arising during the operation of complex technical systems, involving minimization of the magnitude of damage associated with risks, as well as the smallest amount of costs arising from preventive and control and measurement work during the entire period of operation. The objectives of the study are to build a mathematical model of risk management in the operation of complex dynamic technical systems of critical purpose in the conditions of interval uncertainty about parameters and phase state, as well as the development of methods for individual forecast of the state change of the considered class of systems. The article gives a comparative characteristic of the effectiveness of using the mathematical apparatus of the theory of emissions of random processes and the method of individual forecasting when solving the problem of control risks arising from the operation of complex technical systems for critical purposes in conditions of uncertainty. Based on the methods of statistics of interval data, a mathematical model of risk control is created, which takes into account possible errors in measuring the values of the parameters of the considered class of complex systems on all control windows during the period of operation. The scientific novelty of the proposed approach consists in the application of statistics of interval data, which make it possible to most accurately take into account possible errors associated with measuring the values of parameters of the technical systems under study at all stages of control. The mathematical model of risk management built in the course of the research carried out during the operation of complex technical systems for critical purposes makes it possible to select the optimal risk management strategy for the operation of objects of the class under consideration. Along with this, an algorithm for predicting changes in the state of a technical system during the entire period of operation was built on the basis of the apparatus of statistics of interval data, which allows taking into account errors in measuring the main parameters of the system under consideration at all stages of control.
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Jasienė, Meilė, Jonas Martinavičius, Filomena Jasevičienė, and Gražina Krivkienė. "BANK LIQUIDITY RISK: ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATES." Business, Management and Education 10, no. 2 (December 20, 2012): 186–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/bme.2012.14.
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In today’s banking business, liquidity risk and its management are some of the most critical elements that underlie the stability and security of the bank’s operations, profit-making and clients confidence as well as many of the decisions that the bank makes. Managing liquidity risk in a commercial bank is not something new, yet scientific literature has not focused enough on different approaches to liquidity risk management and assessment. Furthermore, models, methodologies or policies of managing liquidity risk in a commercial bank have never been examined in detail either. The goal of this article is to analyse the liquidity risk of commercial banks as well as the possibilities of managing it and to build a liquidity risk management model for a commercial bank. The development, assessment and application of the commercial bank liquidity risk management was based on an analysis of scientific resources, a comparative analysis and mathematical calculations.
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Khare, S., A. Bonazzi, C. Mitas, and S. Jewson. "A framework for modeling clustering in natural hazard catastrophe risk management and the implications for re/insurance loss perspectives." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2, no. 8 (August 20, 2014): 5247–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-5247-2014.
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Abstract. In this paper, we present a novel framework for modelling clustering in natural hazard risk models. The framework we present is founded on physical principles where large-scale oscillations in the physical system is the source of non-Poissonian (clustered) frequency behaviour. We focus on a particular mathematical implementation of the "Super-Cluster" methodology that we introduce. This mathematical framework has a number of advantages including tunability to the problem at hand, as well as the ability to model cross-event correlation. Using European windstorm data as an example, we provide evidence that historical data show strong evidence of clustering. We then develop Poisson and clustered simulation models for the data, demonstrating clearly the superiority of the clustered model which we have implemented using the Poisson-Mixtures approach. We then discuss the implications of including clustering in models of prices on catXL contracts, one of the most commonly used mechanisms for transferring risk between primary insurers and reinsurers. This paper provides a number of new insights into the impact clustering has on modelled catXL contract prices. The simple model presented in this paper provides an insightful starting point for practicioners of natural hazard risk modelling.
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Yang, Min. "Information Security Risk Management Model for Big Data." Advances in Multimedia 2022 (August 8, 2022): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/3383251.
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In the current society of rapid expansion of information, big data have achieved vigorous development in all walks of life, considerably promoting data transmission and information sharing. Meanwhile, individuals are becoming increasingly reliant on big data and the Internet, but at the same time, the threat of information security posed by big data is becoming increasingly visible. As a result, how to protect the information security of big data has piqued the interest of both government and businesses. The essence of information security management is risk management, which is closely related to each other. Therefore, this study focuses on the following two aspects of research work. On the one hand, most existing risk management models merely describe risk management in the abstract from a macro-level, and they lack research on risk assessment, making them ineffective. This research builds a novel information security risk management model on the basis of existing risk management models based on the concept of multidimensional risk management. To achieve multidimensional dynamic management of big data risks and to keep them within an acceptable range as much as possible, the model is divided into five levels and two dimensions. On the other hand, this research also optimizes and improves the fuzzy mathematical analysis method and proposes a fuzzy comprehensive assessment method as the core algorithm for the risk assessment layer in the model. As a post-event risk assessment method, the advantage of this method is that it can comprehensively consider factors affecting risk and can quantify some assessment factors in the real network to achieve an effective combination of qualitative and quantitative, thereby providing a basis for decision-making in risk analysis and risk control. Finally, the effectiveness of the risk model in the real application is verified by example analysis, and it is intended that the study work would provide assistance and assurance for big data information security management.
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Zhao, Yan. "Sports Enterprise Marketing and Financial Risk Management Based on Decision Tree and Data Mining." Journal of Healthcare Engineering 2021 (October 15, 2021): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/7632110.
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With the development of modern economy, traditional sports industry enterprises have also been further developed in the financial business. How to ensure information security and financial risk management is the problem faced by sports companies. Risk assessment is the use of mathematical models to calculate the risk factors established in the previous step to predict possible risks. In response to the above problems, we developed a sports enterprise marketing and financial risk management model based on decision trees and data mining. First, we have established a relevant evaluation index system and data samples through in-depth understanding of the actual marketing and financial problems of sports companies. Second, we use the decision tree algorithm to mine and explore related data samples and conduct risk assessment through related indicators. By using the model to calculate the probability of occurrence of the risk, analyze the degree of damage. Finally, the algorithm of this paper is analyzed and discussed through simulation experiments.
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Boiko, Evgueny, Igor Polikarpov, Aleksey Bobrov, Sergey Sizintsov, Valeriy Volnev, and Pavel Shishmarev. "A digital solution for risk-oriented management of thermal power plant process equipment condition." Energy Safety and Energy Economy 5 (November 2020): 42–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.18635/2071-2219-2020-5-42-54.
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According to digital engineering, an intelligent digital infrastructure is intended to optimize performance of thermal power plants. This paper presents an intelligent digital approach to power facility management. As an example, Siberian Generating Company thermal power plants were considered. The authors have developed specialized software able to control and predict thermal power plant process equipment conditions comparing monitoring data and failure probabilities with appropriate mathematical models. Based on a life-cycle monitoring model, a management methodology was created to be applied to technical and business processes of a power facility to improve its maintenance strategy.
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Bochkovckyi, A., and N. Sapozhnikova. "DEVELOPMENT OF DIRECTIONS FOR IMPLEMENTING OF THE PRINCIPLS OF THE RISK-ORIENTED APPROACH IN THE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OF LABOUR PROTECTION AT ENTERPRISES." Bulletin of Lviv State University of Life Safety 20 (January 23, 2020): 41–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.32447/20784643.20.2019.07.
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Purpose: Development of the directions of the system approach application to the risk management of professional dangers occurrence in the modern management system of labour protection of the factories, institutions and organizations. Methods: In the research framework the following complex of scientific methods is used: analysis of scientific-technical literature and regulatorylegal documents in the labour protection field; probabilistic-statistical methods; Markov process theory; method of formalization.Results: Mathematical models for realization the main procedures of the risk management process in the field of labour protection such that management planning and risk estimation are justified and proposed for applying. Such models allow to define mathematical dependence between necessary expenses on labour protection, and the level of the risk of professional dangers occurrence, and to determine the probability to obtain certain occupational injuries, and occupational diseases taking into account the random dynamic nature of the impact of hazards on an employee during a work shift. For application to the procedure of the process of minimization of the risk management automated management system of labour protection management is developed and recommended to the application that is used for providing comprehensive protection for employees by continuous monitoring, and operational adjustment of influenced parameters of identified dangerous, and harmful industrial, and other negative factors on the employee within specified values. Originality: For the first time the directions and the methodological support, which allow to apply system ap-proach to the risk management in the modern management system of labour protection on the base of the objective real-ization Shukhart-Deming cycle in full compliance to the requirements of international regulatory-legal documents have been developed. Practical value: Obtained results can be used as methodological basis for developing a standard of instruction for complex realization the process of risk management in the management system of labour protection in Ukraine and also in other countries of the world.
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Anton, Nicolae, and Anișor Nedelcu. "Comparison and Evaluation of Information Security Models for Access Control." Applied Mechanics and Materials 657 (October 2014): 708–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.657.708.
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This paper presents an approach to various forms of security and different access levels required in an information system by analyzing mathematical models that can be applied to this field. By describing their structural characteristics and how they find implementation in the study of information security, this paper underlines the necessity, means and effectiveness of information security modeling. The conclusions of this paper highlight the importance of a well-defined security risk management and how achieving this goal provides an opening for future research.
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CHRISTOZOV, DIMITAR, STEFANKA CHUKOVA, and PLAMEN MATEEV. "ON TWO TYPES OF WARRANTIES: WARRANTY OF MALFUNCTIONING AND WARRANTY OF MISINFORMING." Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research 26, no. 03 (June 2009): 399–420. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217595909002274.
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In this paper we focus on two types of risks, the risk of malfunctioning of a product quantified by its reliability, and the risk of misunderstanding the features and qualities of a product while deciding whether to buy it. The later risk is caused by the information asymmetry, which is a natural property of any communication process. We discuss the relationship between these risks and product warranty. We begin with an overview of warranties from the decision-makers' viewpoint. We elaborate on the purposes, legalities, and types of warranties and follow with a summary of mathematical models and concepts for quantifying the financial implications of warranties of malfunctioning. Further, we propose a model for quantifying the risk of misinforming and elaborate on the relationship between this risk and product warranty.
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Dashko, Vitaly Mikhailovich. "Modeling of fire risk management support in the residential sector during individual insurance." Technology of technosphere safety 97 (2022): 160–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.25257/tts.2022.3.97.160-170.
Full textAbstract:
Introduction. A significant factor influencing the reduction of the risk of death in case of fires in the residential sector is the presence of fire alarm systems (FAS) in residential premises. Ensuring FAS in the course of insurance is one of the effective ways to improve the level of fire safety in the residential sector. The relevance of the study lies in the development of a support model for fire risk management in the residential sector in the course of individual insurance of residential real estate in the Russian Federation. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the article is the development of calculation models for determining the economic effect for the insurer and the insured from the presence of FAS at the insurance object and the development of a support model for fire risk management in the residential sector based on the individual insurance system. This goal allows us to solve the problem of improving the level of fire safety in the residential sector on the territory of the Russian Federation. Methods. The basis of theoretical research was the methods of system analysis, mathematical statistics, socio-economic analysis and mathematical modeling. The basis of the study was domestic and foreign sources, statistical materials and the results of research work on the subject of the study. Results and discussion. Solutions have been found to support the management of fire risks in the residential sector in the course of individual insurance of residential real estate. And new scientifically substantiated results of the implementation of the tasks set are presented, the solution of which is essential for improving the level of fire safety in the Russian Federation. Conclusions. The results of solving a scientific problem to support the management of fire risks in the residential sector in the course of individual insurance in the territory of the Russian Federation are presented. The decision is based on economic motivation, both insurers and policyholders. Calculation models for determining the economic effect for the insurer and the insured from the presence of FAS at the insurance object are proposed and a model is developed to support the management of fire risks in the residential sector based on the individual insurance system, which allows achieving voluntary, economically motivated fulfillment of fire safety requirements. The socio-economic expediency of the developed model is shown. Keywords: fires, loss of life in fires, integral fire risks, fire automatics, residential real estate insurance.
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Gulyamov, Sh, and F. Sagatova. "Method of Risk Detection Model in Packet Filtering." Mathematical and computer modelling. Series: Technical sciences, no. 22 (November 26, 2021): 58–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.32626/2308-5916.2021-22.58-66.
Full textAbstract:
This article describes Petri net diagrams for fuzzy knowledge and reasoning. A mathematical model of fuzzy Petri nets to detect risks in rules by packet filtering is formed. A model of a two-level fuzzy packet filtering system that provides packet filtering perfor-mance is presented. This model uses fuzzy Petri net as a graphical method to describe the fuzzy logical control of the movement of packets through the firewall and allows it to determine the level of threat embedded in packets from the Internet and to change the or-der of ACLs by determining the rating of acceptance and rejection of packets. In the proposed model, the packet is represented by a token in place of fuzzy Petri nets, and the operation of the packet is illustrated by the transition of fuzzy Petri net, which is responsible for moving the packet from one place to another.
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Bochkovskyі, Andrii. "Actualization and ways of system approach to risk management in occupational health and safety." Journal of Scientific Papers "Social development and Security" 10, no. 3 (June 28, 2020): 93–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.33445/sds.2020.10.3.8.
Full textAbstract:
Substantiation of the need to introduce a system approach to risk management in occupational health and safety management systems and identification ways to implement it. 1. To identify the existing disadvantages of the practical implementation of the stages of the risk management process in occupational health and safety. 2. To substantiate and propose mathematical models for the objective implementation of the Plan procedure of the risk management process in occupational health and safety. 3. To analyze the functionality of existing automated systems of the dangers minimization to ensure the effective functioning of Do – Chek - Act procedures in occupational health and safety. 4. To propose the automated management system of occupational health and safety at the enterprises for objective implementation of Do – Check – Act procedures within the OHS management systems of the enterprises. Analysis of scientific and technical literature and regulations in occupational health and safety, probabilistic and statistical methods, Markov analysis. It is established that the existing methodological approaches to risk management in occupational health and safety ensure for the implementation of only four of the eight necessary stages (stages of risk evaluation) of the relevant process provided by the PDCA methodology. Mathematical models, which allow to set the relationship between occupational health and safety costs and the risk level, as well as to set the probability of not exceeding the accumulation in the employee of the consequence of certain harmful factors impact and occupational injuries at random during the workshift are substantiated and proposed for use. The main disadvantages of the existing automated systems of risk minimization in occupational health and safety, which are the impossibility of minimizing the negative “human factor” signs and the impossibility of prompt normalization of the parameters of harmful production factors on the employee over time are identified. The automated management system of occupational health and safety, which allows to conduct constant monitoring and prompt correction of parameters of impact on the employee of negative factors within the values set by results of risk evaluation is substantiated and offered for application.