Relevant bibliographies by topics / Risk management – Mathematical models

Academic literature on the topic 'Risk management – Mathematical models'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 29 January 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Risk management – Mathematical models"

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Prokopjeva, Evgenija, Evgeny Tankov, Tatyana Shibaeva, and Elena Perekhozheva. "Behavioral models in insurance risk management." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 18, no. 4 (October 21, 2021): 80–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.18(4).2021.08.

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Behavioral characteristics attributed to consumers of insurance services are a relevant factor for analyzing the current situation in the insurance market and developing effective strategies for insurers’ actions. In turn, considering these characteristics allows the insurer to be more successful in the highly competitive field, achieving mutual satisfaction in interacting with the customer. This study is aimed to develop cognitive models of the situation (frame) “Insurance”, taking into account the specifics of the Russian insurance market and systemic factors affecting participants’ behavior in the market. In this regard, the study involves systemizing risks at various levels of the economic system, generalizing factors for the motivation of insurance consumers, developing descriptive and economic-mathematical models for the behavior of economic entities in risky situations.The results obtained represent a behavioral model of interactions among insurance market entities, which determines opportunities for efficient and mutually beneficial coordination of their activities. The developed model includes the following elements: structured individual and institutional frames “Insurance”; a professional index of interest in insurance presented in the form of a mathematical model; methodology for governing the relationships among insurance participants in the digital environment.The recommendations enable predictions of the situation in the insurance market and allow most accurately defining the consumer needs in the conditions of market changes.
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Yarygina, I. Z., V. B. Gisin, and B. A. Putko. "Fractal Asset Pricing Models for Financial Risk Management." Finance: Theory and Practice 23, no. 6 (December 24, 2019): 117–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2019-23-6-117-130.

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The article presents the analysis findings of the problems and prospects of using the fractal markets theory to mathematically predict the price dynamics of assets as part of a financial risk management strategy. The aim of the article is to find out the features of value of bank assets and to develop recommendations for assessing financial risks based on mathematical methods for forecasting economic processes. Theoretical and empirical research methods were used to achieve the aim. The article reveals the features of mathematical modeling of economic processes related to asset pricing in a volatile market. It was proved that using financial mathematics in banking contributes to the stable development of the economy. Mathematical modeling of the price dynamics of financial assets is based on a substantive hypothesis and supported by an adequate apparatus of fractal pair pricing models in order to reveal specific market relations of business entities. According to the authors, the prospects of using forecast models to minimize the financial risks of derivative financial instruments are positive. The authors concluded that the considered methods contribute to managing financial risks and improving forecasts, including operations with derivatives. Besides, the studied fractal volatility parameters proved the predictive power regarding extreme events in financial markets, such as the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers investment bank in 2008. The relevance of the article is due to the fact that the favorable investment climate and the use of modern financing methods largely depend on the effective financial risk management.
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Bondareva, Irina Olegovna, Sabina M. Sidagalieva, and Evgeniya T. Nesterova. "MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN TRANSPORT LOGISTICS." Vestnik of Astrakhan State Technical University. Series: Management, computer science and informatics 2021, no. 2 (April 30, 2021): 75–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.24143/2072-9502-2021-2-75-88.

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The article considers the business processes at the transport logistics enterprises as a chain of clear regulations, where noncompliance or delay of one of them results in disruption of the whole process. Risk management is one of the key tasks requiring the development of modeling tools and prevention of undesirable situations. There has been shown a structural model of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port, supplemented by several levels of consideration. The tree of goals of the transport logistics enterprise was built. Failure to achieve a particular goal is considered as a risk situation, or a risk. A set of factors for assessing its implementation is opposed to each goal, formulas for calculating the indicators used are given. A model of scenarios of all existing significant risks has been developed. A multi-level hybrid logical-probabilistic model, a cascade logical-probabilistic model and a multi-level cascade hybrid logical-probabilistic model of the risk of failure to achieve the main strategic goal of the port/transport enterprise are proposed. The main idea is the need to link together the technology of formalizing risks using the constructed logical-probabilistic models and simulation, where the interpretation of the results is possible using logical and probabilistic models and scenarios. The proposed models make it possible to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port based on the scenario formalization of risks of various levels of management, as well as to simplify the process of interpreting the results of simulation modeling taking into account external factors of influence. The integrated use of all these models is the basis for the development of timely management decisions. Particular attention is paid to the description of the technology for constructing logical, probabilistic and scenario models of various types.
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Ifrim, Ana Maria. "Mathematical Models in Quality Engineering." International Journal of Innovation in the Digital Economy 8, no. 3 (July 2017): 18–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijide.2017070102.

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The present paper deals with the factors that contribute to assuring the quality of the processes involved in project management. The novelty of the approach consists in the fact that the project management processes are analysed with the help of quality indicators in case of time variance. By studying the numeric variable for the proposed economic phenomenon, a smaller discrete interval is obtained, which accounts for the numeric variable being treated as a continuous variable. The practical application of such an analysis is that a risk management plan can be designed based on the parameters which define the quality of the management process.
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Stroev, S. P. "Mathematical models for insolvency risk management of an industrial enterprise." CONTINUUM. MATHS. INFORMATICS. EDUCATION, no. 2 (2021): 89–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.24888/2500-1957-2021-2-89-98.

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Ivanyo, Yaroslav, Nina Fedurina, and Zhanna Varanitsa-Gorodovskaya. "Mathematical models of agricultural production management in high risk environments." E3S Web of Conferences 222 (2020): 01018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202022201018.

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The paper presents an algorithm for modeling the production of agricultural products in the formation of agrometeorological events. Stochastic models of variability of downpours, early snow-fall and crop yields are constructed to assess the likelihood of extreme events. Based on a probabilistic assessment of crop bio-productivity by a normative method, economic losses from agrometeorological events are determined. A model for optimizing crop production taking into account natural risks was built and implemented for an agricultural organization. The results were obtained according to data of the Irkutsk district.
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Kortcheva, A., V. Galabov, J. Marinski, V. Andrea, and C. Stylios. "New approaches and mathematical models for environmental risk management in seaports." IFAC-PapersOnLine 51, no. 30 (2018): 366–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.11.333.

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Bochkovskyi, A. "OPTIMIZATION OF OCCUPATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT." Bulletin of Lviv State University of Life Safety, no. 17 (August 7, 2018): 32–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.32447/20784643.17.2018.04.

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The analysis of regulations in the field of labour safety and risks management was conducted. Several systemic methodological problems relevant to labour safety management system were identified. The main problems, complicating the realization of occupational risks management process are: uncertainty of purposes, complication of realization procedure and absence of tools for its optimization. To eliminate these problems optimal method of occupational risks management, based on mathematical models, was developed and proposed. Results of this study prove that the models should include indexes relatedto expenditures on occupational safety and also to harmful factors and their influence on an employee. The proposed models can be concidered as two optimization tasks, aiming at maximization of employee's safety together with the minimization of expenditures on occupational safety. These tasks are related to the convex programming and can be solved both with numerical methods and with the using of the standard MS Excel programme pack.
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Alazzam, Malik Bader, Abdulsattar Abdullah Hamad, and Ahmed S. AlGhamdi. "Dynamic Mathematical Models’ System and Synchronization." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2021 (November 19, 2021): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6842071.

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We created the equilibrium, which includes sickness outcomes, health and risk behaviors, environmental factors, and health-related assets and delivery systems, and it should be incorporated in system Dyc (dynamic) modelling of chronic disease prevention. System Dyc has the ability to model a variety of interconnected illnesses and dangers, as well as the interaction between delivery systems and afflicted people, as well as state and national policies. This paper proposes a unique idea. Hybrid synchronization utilizes four positive LYP (Lyapunov) exponents based on state feedback management with two identical systems of the Lorenz system 6D HYCH system.
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Khanlarzadeh, Sarvinaz. "Mathematical Modeling of the Risk Reinsurance Process." WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON MATHEMATICS 21 (June 20, 2022): 447–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/23206.2022.21.52.

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This paper presents a method for assessing financial risks and managing them to optimize the decision-making process. It is shown that the type of economic entity at risk and its activities in the financial market affect the specifics of financial risk management, which can be classified into three main groups: hedging, diversification, and insurance. The main instruments used for this purpose are also identified. Special attention is given to the dynamic properties of financial flows arising from the simulation of artificial financial instruments, as well as to their influence on the results of financial risk management when taking into account errors in estimating parameters of mathematical models. The purpose of our study is to create a mathematical model that can be used to assess the risk reinsurance process. We will create a mathematical model of the risk reinsurance process using the following steps: 1. Identify all of the relevant variables in our analysis. 2. Determine how these variables interact with each other and come to a conclusion about how they influence each other's values. 3. Find equations that represent these relationships between the variables and solve for their values with those equations. 4. Test these models against real data from known cases in order to ensure that they work as expected, then use them for future studies or applications requiring this type of modeling technique.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Risk management – Mathematical models"

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Basak, Rishi. "Environmental management systems and the intra-firm risk relationship." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0034/MQ64316.pdf.

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Gu, Jiawen, and 古嘉雯. "On credit risk modeling and credit derivatives pricing." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10722/202367.

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In this thesis, efforts are devoted to the stochastic modeling, measurement and evaluation of credit risks, the development of mathematical and statistical tools to estimate and predict these risks, and methods for solving the significant computational problems arising in this context. The reduced-form intensity based credit risk models are studied. A new type of reduced-form intensity-based model is introduced, which can incorporate the impacts of both observable trigger events and economic environment on corporate defaults. The key idea of the model is to augment a Cox process with trigger events. In addition, this thesis focuses on the relationship between structural firm value model and reduced-form intensity based model. A continuous time structural asset value model for the asset value of two correlated firms with a two-dimensional Brownian motion is studied. With the incomplete information introduced, the information set available to the market participants includes the default time of each firm and the periodic asset value reports. The original structural model is first transformed into a reduced-form model. Then the conditional distribution of the default time as well as the asset value of each name are derived. The existence of the intensity processes of default times is proven and explicit form of intensity processes is given in this thesis. Discrete-time Markovian models in credit crisis are considered. Markovian models are proposed to capture the default correlation in a multi-sector economy. The main idea is to describe the infection (defaults) in various sectors by using an epidemic model. Green’s model, an epidemic model, is applied to characterize the infectious effect in each sector and dependence structures among various sectors are also proposed. The models are then applied to the computation of Crisis Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and Crisis Expected Shortfall (CES). The relationship between correlated defaults of different industrial sectors and business cycles as well as the impacts of business cycles on modeling and predicting correlated defaults is investigated using the Probabilistic Boolean Network (PBN). The idea is to model the credit default process by a PBN and the network structure can be inferred by using Markov chain theory and real-world data. A reduced-form model for economic and recorded default times is proposed and the probability distributions of these two default times are derived. The numerical study on the difference between these two shows that our proposed model can both capture the features and fit the empirical data. A simple and efficient method, based on the ordered default rate, is derived to compute the ordered default time distributions in both the homogeneous case and the two-group heterogeneous case under the interacting intensity default contagion model. Analytical expressions for the ordered default time distributions with recursive formulas for the coefficients are given, which makes the calculation fast and efficient in finding rates of basket CDSs.
published_or_final_version
Mathematics
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy
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Liu, Binbin, and 刘彬彬. "Some topics in risk theory and optimal capital allocation problems." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2012. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B48199291.

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In recent years, the Markov Regime-Switching model and the class of Archimedean copulas have been widely applied to a variety of finance-related fields. The Markov Regime-Switching model can reflect the reality that the underlying economy is changing over time. Archimedean copulas are one of the most popular classes of copulas because they have closed form expressions and have great flexibility in modeling different kinds of dependencies. In the thesis, we first consider a discrete-time risk process based on the compound binomial model with regime-switching. Some general recursive formulas of the expected penalty function have been obtained. The orderings of ruin probabilities are investigated. In particular, we show that if there exists a stochastic dominance relationship between random claims at different regimes, then we can order ruin probabilities under different initial regimes. Regarding capital allocation problems, which are important areas in finance and risk management, this thesis studies the problems of optimal allocation of policy limits and deductibles when the dependence structure among risks is modeled by an Archimedean copula. By employing the concept of arrangement increasing and stochastic dominance, useful qualitative results of the optimal allocations are obtained. Then we turn our attention to a new family of risk measures satisfying a set of proposed axioms, which includes the class of distortion risk measures with concave distortion functions. By minimizing the new risk measures, we consider the optimal allocation of policy limits and deductibles problems based on the assumption that for each risk there exists an indicator random variable which determines whether the risk occurs or not. Several sufficient conditions to order the optimal allocations are obtained using tools in stochastic dominance theory.
published_or_final_version
Statistics and Actuarial Science
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy
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Siu, Kin-bong Bonny, and 蕭健邦. "Expected shortfall and value-at-risk under a model with market risk and credit risk." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2006. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B37727473.

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Li, Tang, and 李唐. "Markov chain models for re-manufacturing systems and credit risk management." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2008. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B40203700.

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Terciyanli, Erman. "Alternative Mathematical Models For Revenue Management Problems." Master's thesis, METU, 2009. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12610711/index.pdf.

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In this study, the seat inventory control problem is considered for airline networks from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker. In the revenue management literature, it is generally assumed that the decision makers are risk-neutral. Therefore, the expected revenue is maximized without taking the variability or any other risk factor into account. On the other hand, risk-sensitive approach provides us with more information about the behavior of the revenue. The risk measure we consider in this study is the probability that revenue is less than a predetermined threshold level. In the risk-neutral cases, while the expected revenue is maximized, the probability of revenue being less than such a predetermined level might be high. We propose three mathematical models to incorporate the risk measure under consideration. The optimal allocations obtained by these models are numerically evaluated in simulation studies for example problems. Expected revenue, coefficient of variation, load factor and probability of the poor performance are the performance measures in the simulation studies. According to the results of these simulations, it shown that the proposed models can decrease the variability of the revenue considerably. In other words, the probability of revenue being less than the threshold level is decreased. Moreover, expected revenue can be increased in some scenarios by using the proposed models. The approach considered in this thesis is especially proposed for small scale airlines because risk of obtaining revenue less than the threshold level is more for this type of airlines as compared to large scale airlines.
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Rong, Yian, and 戎軼安. "Applications of comonotonicity in risk-sharing and optimal allocation." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10722/207205.

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Over the past decades, researchers in economics, financial mathematics and actuarial science have introduced results to the concept of comonotonicity in their respective fields of interest. Comonotonicity is a very strong dependence structure and is very often mistaken as a dependence structure that is too extreme and unrealistic. However, the concept of comonotonicity is actually a useful tool for solving several research and practical problems in capital allocation, risk sharing and optimal allocation. The first topic of this thesis is focused on the application of comonotonicity in optimal capital allocation. The Enterprise Risk Management process of a financial institution usually contains a procedure to allocate the total risk capital of the company into its different business units. Dhaene et al. (2012) proposed a unifying capital allocation framework by considering some general deviation measures. This general framework is extended to a more general optimization problem of minimizing separable convex function with a linear constraint and box constraints. A new approach of solving this constrained minimization problem explicitly by the concept of comonotonicity is developed. Instead of the traditional Kuhn-Tucker theory, a method of expressing each convex function as the expected stop-loss of some suitable random variable is used to solve the optimization problem. Then, some results in convex analysis with infimum-convolution are derived using the result of this new approach. Next, Borch's theorem is revisited from the perspective of comonotonicity. The optimal solution to the Pareto optimal risk-sharing problem can be obtained by the Lagrangian method or variational arguments. Here, I propose a new method, which is based on a Breeden-Litzanbeger type integral representation formula for increasing convex functions. It enables the transform of the objective function into a sum of mixtures of stop-losses. Necessary conditions for the existence of optimal solution are then discussed. The explicit solution obtained allows us to show that the risk-sharing problem is indeed a “point-wise” problem, and hence the value function can be obtained immediately using the notion of supremum-convolution in convex analysis. In addition to the above classical risk-sharing and capital allocation problems, the problem of minimizing a separable convex objective subject to an ordering restriction is then studied. Best et al. (2000) proposed a pool adjacent violators algorithm to compute the optimal solution. Instead, we show that using the concept of comonotonicity and the technique of dynamic programming the solution can be derived in a recursive manner. By identifying the right-hand derivative of the convex functions with distribution functions of some suitable random variables, we rewrite the objective function into a sum of expected deviations. This transformation and the fact that the expected deviation is a convex function enable us to solve the minimizing problem.
published_or_final_version
Statistics and Actuarial Science
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy
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Powell, Robert. "Industry value at risk in Australia." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 2007. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/297.

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Value at Risk (VaR) models have gained increasing momentum in recent years. Market VaR is an important issue for banks since its adoption as a primary risk metric in the Basel Accords and the requirement that it is calculated on a daily basis. Credit risk modelling has become increasingly important to banks since the advent of Basel 11 which allows banks with sophisticated modelling techniques to use internal models for the purpose of calculating capital requirements. A high level of credit risk is often the key reason behind banks failing or experiencing severe difficulty. Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measures extreme risk, and is gaining popularity with the recognition that high losses are often impacted by a small number of extreme events.
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Hao, Fangcheng, and 郝方程. "Options pricing and risk measures under regime-switching models." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2011. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B4714726X.

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Wei, Zhenghong. "Empirical likelihood based evaluation for value at risk models." HKBU Institutional Repository, 2007. http://repository.hkbu.edu.hk/etd_ra/896.

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Books on the topic "Risk management – Mathematical models"

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Sébastien, Lleo, ed. Risk-sensitive investment management. New Jersey: World Scientific, 2015.

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author, Frey Rüdiger, and Embrechts Paul 1953 author, eds. Quantitative risk management: Concepts, techniques and tools. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2015.

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Rüdiger, Frey, and Embrechts Paul 1953-, eds. Quantitative risk management: Concepts, techniques, and tools. Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press, 2005.

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Gaspar, Raquel M. Credit risk & forward price models. Stockholm: Stockholm School of Economics, 2006.

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Höglund, Thomas. Mathematical asset management. Hoboken, N.J: Wiley, 2008.

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Operational risk modelling and management. Boca Raton: Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2010.

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Zhivetin, Vladimir. Banking system risk management: Mathematical modeling. Moscow: Institute for Risk Problems, 2012.

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Quantitative operational risk models. Boca Raton: Taylor & Francis, 2012.

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1963-, Imai Kenji, ed. Credit risk models and the Basel Accords. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons (Asia), 2003.

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The project risk maturity model: Measuring and improving risk management capability. Farnham, Surrey, England: Gower, 2011.

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Book chapters on the topic "Risk management – Mathematical models"

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Brannigan, Vincent, and Carol Smidts. "Risk Based Regulation Using Mathematical Risk Models." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management ’96, 721–25. London: Springer London, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3409-1_115.

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Hill, M. D. "Use of Mathematical Models in Risk Assessment and Risk Management." In Radionuclides in the Food Chain, 335–61. London: Springer London, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-1610-3_24.

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Bordiuzhenko, Svitlana, Oleksandr Sobol, Yuriy Uvarov, Oleh Stelmakh, Oleksandr Danilin, and Serhiy Shevchenko. "Mathematical Model of Integral Fire Risk Management." In IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, 235–45. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-81469-4_19.

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Bernhard, Pierre, Jacob C. Engwerda, Berend Roorda, J. M. Schumacher, Vassili Kolokoltsov, Patrick Saint-Pierre, and Jean-Pierre Aubin. "Asset and Liability Insurance Management (ALIM) for Risk Eradication." In The Interval Market Model in Mathematical Finance, 319–35. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-8176-8388-7_18.

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Johnson-Payton, Lori R., Yacov Y. Haimes, and James H. Lambert. "A Methodology For Risk Management Of Compound Failure Modes." In Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 15–44. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-57311-8_2.

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Lee, Joung-Hun. "Theoretical Models as a Tool to Derive Management Strategies for Sustainable Natural Resource Management." In Decision Science for Future Earth, 169–79. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8632-3_7.

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AbstractBiodiversity hot spots cannot be preserved successfully unless human activities such as illegal logging and grazing are properly controlled and cooperation is achieved among resource users to reduce anthropogenic impacts. We explore strategies for sustainable use of common resources by studying resource users’ behaviors together with resource dynamics, because ecological and social factors are known to interact strongly. By showing three systems dealing with the risk of illegal logging, grazing pressure, and increasing catching effort respectively, we show the advantages of a mathematical model as a management tool.
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Uratani, Tadashi. "A Portfolio Model for the Risk Management in Public Pension." In Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, 183–86. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05014-0_41.

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Ivanov, Dmitry. "Hybrid Multi-objective Mathematical Optimization: Optimal Control Model for Proactive Supply Chain Recovery Planning." In Structural Dynamics and Resilience in Supply Chain Risk Management, 161–201. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69305-7_6.

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Kravtsiv, S., O. Sobol, V. Komyak, O. Danilin, and O. Al’boschiy. "Mathematical Model of Management of the Integral Risk of Emergency Situation on the Example of Fires." In IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, 182–95. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48939-7_16.

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Zhao, Yan, DongXu Li, and Jian Zhang. "Higher Order Statistics Analyses Based on the Mathematical Model of Surface Electromyography." In Digital Human Modeling and Applications in Health, Safety, Ergonomics, and Risk Management. Human Body Modeling and Ergonomics, 402–8. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-39182-8_47.

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Conference papers on the topic "Risk management – Mathematical models"

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Ajmal, Ayesha, Seemal Irfan, Nosheen Sabahat, and Saad Bin Saleem. "Analysis of Flood Risk Management in the Context of Mathematical Models." In 2019 International Conference on Innovative Computing (ICIC). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icic48496.2019.8966678.

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Kovtun, Dmitriy, Matvey Koptelov, and Anna Guseva. "Megaproject Risk Management Based on Loyalty Program Using Neural Network Models." In 2020 2nd International Conference on Control Systems, Mathematical Modeling, Automation and Energy Efficiency (SUMMA). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/summa50634.2020.9280581.

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Zhao, Jun. "Research on Mathematical Model P2P Online Credit Risk Evaluation Based on Data Processing." In 2015 International Conference on Education Technology, Management and Humanities Science (ETMHS 2015). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/etmhs-15.2015.197.

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Vinnichenko, A. V. "DYNAMIC MODEL OF COMBINED AGGREGATION OF ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING PROCESS." In MODELING AND SITUATIONAL MANAGEMENT THE QUALITY OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS. Saint Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31799/978-5-8088-1558-2-2021-2-112-116.

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The paper presents methods and approaches for mathematical modeling and rationalization of flexible additive manufacturing, as well as other processes by which it is possible to create additive models for their integration into the system of experimental or pilot production. The work has also formed and synthesized a process model, which includes flexible production indicators, service indicators, and a developed criterion base for their assessment. The work takes into account the optimization criteria, as well as maximizing and minimizing risks for additive manufacturing, taking into account the possible risk component when deploying new processes for experimental and small-scale production. The models and methods described in the article will make it possible to carry out mathematical modeling and subsequent improvements for the flexible production process using additive technologies, used as a means of achieving the rational use of existing production resources within the framework of existing scientific and production complexes.
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Di Matteo, A., F. Lo Iacono, G. Navarra, and A. Pirrotta. "A Novel Mathematical Model for TLCD: Theoretical and Experimental Investigations." In Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA). Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.110.

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Slepchuk, Kira, Kira Slepchuk, Tatyana Khmara, and Tatyana Khmara. "AVAILABILITY OF NUMERICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELS TO SOLVE THE APPLIED PROBLEMS OF WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT OF SHELF ECOSYSTEMS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b93b74031e6.93146133.

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The problems appeared during development and calibration of one-dimensional (vertical resolution) biogeochemical block of water quality model, are discussed. It is extremely useful in the initial stage of shelf ecosystems research because of its simplicity in as implementation as result interpretation. To describe the environmental parameters dynamics we used the Model for Estuarine and Coastal Circulation Assessment, which consists of hydrodynamic model; model of conservative impurity transport; chemical and biological model. The seasonal of biogenic elements and phytoplankton variability in the Sevastopol Bay is studied as an example.
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Slepchuk, Kira, Kira Slepchuk, Tatyana Khmara, and Tatyana Khmara. "AVAILABILITY OF NUMERICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELS TO SOLVE THE APPLIED PROBLEMS OF WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT OF SHELF ECOSYSTEMS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21610/conferencearticle_58b43172900b2.

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The problems appeared during development and calibration of one-dimensional (vertical resolution) biogeochemical block of water quality model, are discussed. It is extremely useful in the initial stage of shelf ecosystems research because of its simplicity in as implementation as result interpretation. To describe the environmental parameters dynamics we used the Model for Estuarine and Coastal Circulation Assessment, which consists of hydrodynamic model; model of conservative impurity transport; chemical and biological model. The seasonal of biogenic elements and phytoplankton variability in the Sevastopol Bay is studied as an example.
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Fernandes, João, Monica Santamaria, José C. Matos, Daniel V. Oliveira, Lino Costa, António, and Abel Henriques. "An infrastructure management system for railway bridges: overview and application to a case study." In IABSE Symposium, Guimarães 2019: Towards a Resilient Built Environment Risk and Asset Management. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/guimaraes.2019.0168.

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<p>A management system is a decision-making tool that uses mathematical models to predict the future condition of the infrastructures as well as to make recommendations to the project managers. Generally, an infrastructure management system shall include a system for processing and analysing data, predicting deterioration, proposing maintenance actions, forecasting costs, obtaining optimal solutions and defining strategies that considers the political and economic constraints. The focus on this paper will be the module regarding the definition of cost-models.</p><p>During its life cycle, bridges are exposed to several issues that can compromise their functionality. In this way, performing maintenance and rehabilitation actions and establishing cost models are very important tasks to keep the bridge functions according to the demands of the society. In the field of bridge engineering, the cost models can be used for different purposes such as the definition of optimum maintenance policies and project investment alternatives. Also, they are very important for the decision-making process once they cover several aspects related to the decisions about the system’s performance and decisions that are influenced by social-economic aspects. Hence, the idea of this paper is to discuss different approaches of how the cost-models are evaluated over a life cycle of a bridge due different scenarios of maintenance and rehabilitation with an application to a case study.</p>
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Firoozi, M., A. Siadat, N. Salehi, and S. M. Mousavi. "A novel multi-objective fuzzy mathematical model for designing a sustainable supply chain network considering outsourcing risk under uncertainty." In 2013 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ieem.2013.6962380.

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Samec, Vanja, Johann Stampler, and Gregor Strekelj. "ALLPLAN Bridge - A new BIM tool tailored for Bridge Engineering." In IABSE Symposium, Guimarães 2019: Towards a Resilient Built Environment Risk and Asset Management. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/guimaraes.2019.0146.

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<p>BIM application in bridge engineering is becoming more and more requested. However, many solutions do currently not yet address the special needs of bridge construction.</p><p>The paper explains the relevant features of the new approach, developing the bridge structure for detailing and analysis purposes in one parametrical model by using appropriate mathematical prescriptions. Specific characteristic of this solution is the combination of an intelligent database and a user interface tailored for engineers.</p>
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Reports on the topic "Risk management – Mathematical models"

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Patev, Robert C., David L. Buccini, James W. Bartek, and Stuart Foltz. Improved Reliability Models for Mechanical and Electrical Components at Navigation Lock and Dam and Flood Risk Management Facilities. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, April 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada582967.

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Aalto, Juha, and Ari Venäläinen, eds. Climate change and forest management affect forest fire risk in Fennoscandia. Finnish Meteorological Institute, June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361355.

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Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.
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Jung, Jacob, Michael Guilfoyle, Austin Davis, Christina Saltus, Eric Britzke, and Richard Fischer. Threatened, endangered, and at-risk species for consideration into climate change models in the Northeast. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), September 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/42143.

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This special report provides a selection process for choosing priority species using the specific focus of high-elevation, forested habitats in the North Atlantic to demonstrate the process. This process includes criteria for choosing invasive species to incorporate into models, given the predicted spread of invasive plant species because of climate change. Discussed in this report are the US Army Corps of Engineers’ Threatened and Endangered Species Team portal, the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s Information for Planning and Consultation Portal, the nonprofit organization Partners in Flight’s watch list, the US Geological Survey’s Biodiversity Information Serving Our Nation model, and NatureServe’s interagency effort Landfire. The data linked this montane habitat with a species of conservation concern, Cartharus bicknelli and the endangered squirrel Glaucomys sabrinus as target species and with Elaeagnus umbellate, Robinia pseudoacacia, Rhamnus cathartica, and Acer planoides as invasive species. Incorporating these links into the climate change framework developed by Davis et al. (2018) will create predictive models for the impacts of climate change on TER-S, which will affect land management decisions in the region.
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Renaud, Alexander, Michael Forte, Nicholas Spore, Brittany Bruder, Katherine Brodie, Jessamin Straub, and Jeffrey Ruby. Evaluation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems for flood risk management : results of terrain and structure assessments. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), August 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/45000.

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The 2017 Duck Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Pilot Experiment was conducted by the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Field Research Facility (FRF), to assess the potential for different UAS to support US Army Corps of Engineers coastal and flood risk management. By involving participants from multiple ERDC laboratories, federal agencies, academia, and private industry, the work unit leads were able to leverage assets, resources, and expertise to assess data from multiple UAS. This report compares datasets from several UAS to assess their potential to survey and observe coastal terrain and structures. In this report, UAS data product accuracy was analyzed within the context of three potential applications: (1) general coastal terrain survey accuracy across the FRF property; (2) small-scale feature detection and observation within the experiment infrastructure area; and (3) accuracy for surveying coastal foredunes. The report concludes by presenting tradeoffs between UAS accuracy and the cost to operate to aid in selection of the best UAS for a particular task. While the technology and exact UAS models vary through time, the lessons learned from this study illustrate that UAS are available at a variety of costs to satisfy varying coastal management data needs.
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Shabelnyk, Tetiana V., Serhii V. Krivenko, Nataliia Yu Rotanova, Oksana F. Diachenko, Iryna B. Tymofieieva, and Arnold E. Kiv. Integration of chatbots into the system of professional training of Masters. [б. в.], June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/123456789/4439.

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The article presents and describes innovative technologies of training in the professional training of Masters. For high-quality training of students of technical specialties, it becomes necessary to rethink the purpose, results of studying and means of teaching professional disciplines in modern educational conditions. The experience of implementing the chatbot tool in teaching the discipline “Mathematical modeling of socio-economic systems” in the educational and professional program 124 System Analysis is described. The characteristics of the generalized structure of the chatbot information system for investment analysis are presented and given: input information, information processing system, output information, which creates a closed cycle (system) of direct and feedback interaction. The information processing system is represented by accounting and analytical data management blocks. The investment analysis chatbot will help masters of the specialty system analysis to manage the investment process efficiently based on making the right decisions, understanding investment analysis in the extensive structure of financial management and optimizing risks in these systems using a working mobile application. Also, the chatbot will allow you to systematically assess the disadvantages and advantages of investment projects or the direction of activity of a system analyst, while increasing interest in performing practical tasks. A set of software for developing a chatbot integrated into training is installed: Kotlin programming, a library for network interaction Retrofit, receiving and transmitting data, linking processes using the HTTP API. Based on the results of the study, it is noted that the impact of integrating a chatbot into the training of Masters ensures the development of their professional activities, which gives them the opportunity to be competent specialists and contributes to the organization of high-quality training.
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Alt, Jonathan, Willie Brown, George Gallarno, John Richards, and Titus Rice. Risk-based prioritization of operational condition assessments : Jennings Randolph case study. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), April 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/43862.

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The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates, maintains, and manages over $232 billion worth of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. Using Operational Condition Assessments (OCA), the USACE allocates limited resources to assess asset condition in efforts to minimize risks associated with asset performance degradation, but decision makers require a greater understanding of those risks. The analysis of risk associated with Flood Risk Management assets in the context of its associated watershed system includes understanding the consequences of the asset’s failure and a determination of the likelihood that the asset will perform as expected given the current OCA ratings of critical components. This research demonstrates an application of a scalable methodology to model the probability of a dam performing as expected given the state of its subordinate gates and their components. The research team combines this likelihood with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop a measure of risk. The resulting risk scores serve as an input for an optimization program that outputs the optimal set of components to conduct OCAs on to minimize risk in the watershed. Proof-of-concept results for an initial case study on the Jennings Randolph Dam are provided.
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Alt, Jonathan, Willie Brown, George Gallarno, and John Richards. Risk-based prioritization of operational condition assessments : stakeholder analysis and literature review. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), March 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/40162.

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The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates, maintains, and manages more than $232 billion worth of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. Using the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) system, the USACE allocates limited resources to assess conditions and maintain assets in efforts to minimize risks associated with asset performance degradation. Currently, OCAs are conducted on each component within a facility every 5 years, regardless of the component’s risk contribution. The analysis of risks associated with Flood Risk Management (FRM) facilities, such as dams, includes considering how the facility contributes to its associated FRM watershed system, understanding the consequences of degradation in the facility’s performance, and calculating the likelihood that the facility will perform as expected given the current OCA condition ratings of critical components. This research will develop a scalable methodology to model the probability of failure of components and systems that contribute to the performance of facilities in their respective FRM systems combined with consequences derived from hydrological models of the watershed to develop facility risk scores. This interim report documents the results of the first phase of this effort, stakeholder analysis and literature review, to identify candidate approaches to determine the probability of failure of a facility.
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Alt, Jonathan, Willie Brown, George Gallarno, John Richards, Jennifer Olszewski, and Titus Rice. Risk-based prioritization of operational condition assessments : methodology and case study results. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), November 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/46123.

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USACE operates, maintains, and manages more than $232 billion of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. USACE uses the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) to allocate limited resources to assess condition of this infrastructure in efforts to minimize risks associated with performance degradation. The analysis of risk associated with flood risk management (FRM) assets includes consideration of how each asset contributes to its associated FRM watershed system, understanding the consequences of the asset’s performance degradation, and a determination of the likelihood that the asset will perform as expected given the current OCA condition ratings of critical components. This research demonstrates a proof-of-concept application of a scalable methodology to model the probability of a dam performing as expected given the state of its gates and their components. The team combines this likelihood of degradation with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop a risk measure. The resulting risk scores serve as an input for a mixed-integer optimization program that outputs the optimal set of components to conduct OCAs on to minimize risk in the watershed. This report documents the results of the application of this methodology to two case studies.
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Carney, Nancy, Tamara Cheney, Annette M. Totten, Rebecca Jungbauer, Matthew R. Neth, Chandler Weeks, Cynthia Davis-O'Reilly, et al. Prehospital Airway Management: A Systematic Review. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.23970/ahrqepccer243.

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Objective. To assess the comparative benefits and harms across three airway management approaches (bag valve mask [BVM], supraglottic airway [SGA], and endotracheal intubation [ETI]) by emergency medical services in the prehospital setting, and how the benefits and harms differ based on patient characteristics, techniques, and devices. Data sources. We searched electronic citation databases (Ovid® MEDLINE®, CINAHL®, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus®) from 1990 to September 2020 and reference lists, and posted a Federal Register notice request for data. Review methods. Review methods followed Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Evidence-based Practice Center Program methods guidance. Using pre-established criteria, studies were selected and dual reviewed, data were abstracted, and studies were evaluated for risk of bias. Meta-analyses using profile-likelihood random effects models were conducted when data were available from studies reporting on similar outcomes, with analyses stratified by study design, emergency type, and age. We qualitatively synthesized results when meta-analysis was not indicated. Strength of evidence (SOE) was assessed for primary outcomes (survival, neurological function, return of spontaneous circulation [ROSC], and successful advanced airway insertion [for SGA and ETI only]). Results. We included 99 studies (22 randomized controlled trials and 77 observational studies) involving 630,397 patients. Overall, we found few differences in primary outcomes when airway management approaches were compared. • For survival, there was moderate SOE for findings of no difference for BVM versus ETI in adult and mixed-age cardiac arrest patients. There was low SOE for no difference in these patients for BVM versus SGA and SGA versus ETI. There was low SOE for all three comparisons in pediatric cardiac arrest patients, and low SOE in adult trauma patients when BVM was compared with ETI. • For neurological function, there was moderate SOE for no difference for BVM compared with ETI in adults with cardiac arrest. There was low SOE for no difference in pediatric cardiac arrest for BVM versus ETI and SGA versus ETI. In adults with cardiac arrest, neurological function was better for BVM and ETI compared with SGA (both low SOE). • ROSC was applicable only in cardiac arrest. For adults, there was low SOE that ROSC was more frequent with SGA compared with ETI, and no difference for BVM versus SGA or BVM versus ETI. In pediatric patients there was low SOE of no difference for BVM versus ETI and SGA versus ETI. • For successful advanced airway insertion, low SOE supported better first-pass success with SGA in adult and pediatric cardiac arrest patients and adult patients in studies that mixed emergency types. Low SOE also supported no difference for first-pass success in adult medical patients. For overall success, there was moderate SOE of no difference for adults with cardiac arrest, medical, and mixed emergency types. • While harms were not always measured or reported, moderate SOE supported all available findings. There were no differences in harms for BVM versus SGA or ETI. When SGA was compared with ETI, there were no differences for aspiration, oral/airway trauma, and regurgitation; SGA was better for multiple insertion attempts; and ETI was better for inadequate ventilation. Conclusions. The most common findings, across emergency types and age groups, were of no differences in primary outcomes when prehospital airway management approaches were compared. As most of the included studies were observational, these findings may reflect study design and methodological limitations. Due to the dynamic nature of the prehospital environment, the results are susceptible to indication and survival biases as well as confounding; however, the current evidence does not favor more invasive airway approaches. No conclusion was supported by high SOE for any comparison and patient group. This supports the need for high-quality randomized controlled trials designed to account for the variability and dynamic nature of prehospital airway management to advance and inform clinical practice as well as emergency medical services education and policy, and to improve patient-centered outcomes.
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Semerikov, Serhiy, Illia Teplytskyi, Yuliia Yechkalo, Oksana Markova, Vladimir Soloviev, and Arnold Kiv. Computer Simulation of Neural Networks Using Spreadsheets: Dr. Anderson, Welcome Back. [б. в.], June 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/123456789/3178.

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The authors of the given article continue the series presented by the 2018 paper “Computer Simulation of Neural Networks Using Spreadsheets: The Dawn of the Age of Camelot”. This time, they consider mathematical informatics as the basis of higher engineering education fundamentalization. Mathematical informatics deals with smart simulation, information security, long-term data storage and big data management, artificial intelligence systems, etc. The authors suggest studying basic principles of mathematical informatics by applying cloud-oriented means of various levels including those traditionally considered supplementary – spreadsheets. The article considers ways of building neural network models in cloud-oriented spreadsheets, Google Sheets. The model is based on the problem of classifying multi-dimensional data provided in “The Use of Multiple Measurements in Taxonomic Problems” by R. A. Fisher. Edgar Anderson’s role in collecting and preparing the data in the 1920s-1930s is discussed as well as some peculiarities of data selection. There are presented data on the method of multi-dimensional data presentation in the form of an ideograph developed by Anderson and considered one of the first efficient ways of data visualization.
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