Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Risk management Computer simulation'
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Wray, Vicki Lorraine. "Cattle price risk management strategies-using computer simulation to educate Iowa producers of available tools." Thesis, Manhattan, Kan. : Kansas State University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/759.
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Reddy, Praneel. "Cognitive Biases, Volatility, and Risk in Capital Markets: Revealing Risk through Simulation." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/202772.
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The modeling of financial risk, whose shortcomings came to the fore during the financial crisis, generally understands risk from the history of prices and returns. However, the state space of risk is not fully revealed from the history of prices and returns. In this dissertation, certain cognitive biases were modeled, and the simulation results were quantitatively characterized to reveal risk not revealed from the history of prices and returns. This contribution adds to the extant literature on the modeling of financial risk by showing how to reveal parts of the state space of risk not revealed from other methods in use today.
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Carlsson, Elin, and Moa Mattsson. "The MaRiQ model: A quantitative approach to risk management." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Avdelningen för datalogi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-385257.
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In recent years, cyber attacks and data fraud have become major issues to companies, businesses and nation states alike. The need for more accurate and reliable risk management models is therefore substantial. Today, cybersecurity risk management is often carried out on a qualitative basis, where risks are evaluated to a predefined set of categories such as low, medium or high. This thesis aims to challenge that practice, by presenting a model that quantitatively assesses risks - therefore named MaRiQ (Manage Risks Quantitatively). MaRiQ was developed based on collected requirements and contemporary literature on quantitative risk management. The model consists of a clearly defined flowchart and a supporting tool created in Excel. To generate scientifically validated results, MaRiQ makes use of a number of statistical techniques and mathematical functions, such as Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions. To evaluate whether our developed model really was an improvement compared to current qualitative processes, we conducted a workshop at the end of the project. The organization that tested MaRiQexperienced the model to be useful and that it fulfilled most of their needs. Our results indicate that risk management within cybersecurity can and should be performed using more quantitative approaches than what is praxis today. Even though there are several potential developments to be made, MaRiQ demonstrates the possible advantages of transitioning from qualitative to quantitative risk management processes.
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Ayres, Kelley. "Simulation models of bank risk management." Thesis, Kansas State University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/18969.
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Master of AgribusinessDepartment of Agricultural Economics
Bryan Schurle
Quantifying the impact of various economic events is essential for risk management in community banks. Interest rate shocks of either rapidly increasing or decreasing rates, in magnitudes of at least 200 basis points, is one of the more common risks modeled. Liquidity crises that impact deposits or loan demand can arise from either local or national economic events is another risk factor that regulators are requiring banks to quantify and plan for. Excel spreadsheets can be used to develop models to measure and quantify these risks. Simulation tools and what-if analysis using data table and scenario manager identify possible outcomes for differing interest rate scenarios, interest rate shocks and liquidity stresses. Data table was used for simulation of a stochastic model to produce a cumulative distribution function of two hundred results each on three different interest rate environments. Scenario manager was used to narrow the simulation to a certain set of expectations affecting the balance sheet of the bank and another set of expectations from an interest rate shock. Changes in the bank’s balance sheet resulting from three different commodity price expectations were modeled. An interest rate shock of four hundred basis points over a two year period was also modeled. These models are simple and cost effective. Once data are captured, the time required to develop and generate scenarios is manageable. The model can be used for a wide range of what-if alternatives as an individual bank may see fit. These models are adequate to meet present regulatory requirements for a community bank of smaller size that is not complex and does not possess a high risk profile.
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Tena-Chollet, Florian. "Elaboration d'un environnement semi-virtuel de formation à la gestion stratégique de crise, basé sur la simulation multi-agents." Phd thesis, Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Saint-Etienne, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00741941.
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Les crises projettent la plupart du temps le décideur sur une durée plus ou moins longue dans l'urgence de la décision, avec l'obligation de minimiser les conséquences possibles sur les enjeux. Une équipe de gestion de crise est organisée en cellule et a pour objectif de construire des stratégies de réponse concertées et appropriées. Or, il s'avère que certaines des compétences nécessaires ne peuvent être acquises que par expérience. Ce travail s'attache ainsi à améliorer les processus de formation des décisionnaires en définissant, suivant quatre étapes, un environnement semi-virtuel de formation à la gestion stratégique de crise. Une phase de conception sert tout d'abord de point de départ au cahier des charges d'une implantation physique, d'une ingénierie système et d'une ingénierie pédagogique dédiées. Puis, une étape de modélisation d'un exercice de gestion de crise structure une méthodologie visant à définir les objectifs pédagogiques retenus, et propose une méthode appliquée de génération semi-automatique d'un scénario didactique. Une attention particulière est notamment portée sur l'élaboration d'une typologie d'évènements et d'éléments logiciels permettant la simulation multi-agents de crises virtualisées. Enfin, une méthodologie d'évaluation des participants est proposée dans le but d'enrichir la phase classique de débriefing. Seize indicateurs sont définis et permettent en particulier de construire des arbres de compétences. Une phase de validation porte sur trois de ces quatre axes méthodologiques, et il est montré que les premiers résultats obtenus tendent à valider les spécifications retenues pour l'environnement semi-virtuel de formation développé.
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Al-Shawi, S. N. A. "Management cybernetics : computer simulation models of operational management organizations." Thesis, Brunel University, 1986. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/5015.
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Cybernetics is the science of effective organization, i.e. the science that describes the general principles of growth, learning and adaptation in complex, dynamical systems. Stafford Beer regards his viable system model as a design for effective formal organization. He also declares that since his model is explicitly based upon the principles of cybernetics, it facilitates consideration of what is and is not possible within formal organizations and provides guidance in creating efficient structures. The purpose of this research is to demonstrate and test Stafford Beer's ideas on the viable system model via the simulation of certain business activities. A methodology for getting access to the cybernetic body of knowledge is given as well as examples of cybernetic laws relevant to managerial and business practice. An important part of the work is devoted to the explanation and discussion of Stafford Beer's viable system model, and the importance it represents as a cybernetic method for the design of organizational structures. Simulation models incorporating the major activities of a business firm are represented and used as case studies to investigate how basic industrial organizations based on Beer's viable system model work under operational conditions.
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List, Hans-Fredo. "Limited risk arbitrage investment management." Thesis, Imperial College London, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/8651.
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Koskela, Niklas, and Carolina Aspfjäll. "Agile Risk Management." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Akademin för informationsteknologi, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-44975.
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This thesis was done in collaboration with Volvo Cars to inspect their risk management process in light of their recent change to an agile way of working. The question was if their actual risk management differentiates from their directive and if the company could in any way improve their agile risk management. By having qualitative semi-structured interviews with employees in the IT section of the company, we got the picture that not many knew about the IT Risk Management Directive that explains the process, but they are still working within its guidelines. Other sections of the company that is still working traditionally might also benefit from changing to an agile way. However, that would depend on the size of their projects and what kind of work they do since the agile methodology is more turned towards smaller projects that can change direction quickly.
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Aryal, Babu Ram. "Developing the computer simulation model of buzz electronics simulation." Online version, 2009. http://www.uwstout.edu/lib/thesis/2009/2009aryalb.pdf.
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Hong, Seng-Phil. "Data base security through simulation." Virtual Press, 1994. http://liblink.bsu.edu/uhtbin/catkey/902465.
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This research explores the complexities of database security, encompassing both the computer hardware and software. Also important is its nature as a people oriented issue. A risk analysis of a database system's security can be examined by creating a simulation model. Though, in order for it to be truly meaningful and accurate, all aspects of design, performance and procedure must be thoroughly and carefully scrutinized.Computer or data security is a major problem in today's world of data processing. This thesis outlines the security problem' and presents trends and issues. It also addresses current trends in computer security environments, database risk analysis, and simulations.Risk analysis is a technique used to quantitatively assess the relative value of protective measures. It is useful when appropriately applied and is in some cases required by regulatory agencies.The goal of security environments is to outline the framework which is valuable in assessing security issues and in establishing partitions in the overall environment within which this and other approaches to security can be examined.A simulation prototype is given which demonstrates the concepts of risk analysis for a database system.Department of Computer Science
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Cai, Zhongtang. "Risk-based proactive availability management." Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/22581.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008.Committee Member: Ahamad, Mustaque; Committee Member: Eisenhauer, Greg; Committee Member: Milojicic, Dejan; Committee Member: Pu, Calton; Committee Member: Schwan, Karsten.
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Mpanza, Brian Vusumuzi. "Evaluation of Transwerk Risk Management Information System." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/50346.
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Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2005.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the last decade, the use of computers has proliferated the industrial arena in South Africa. Due to frequent changes in computer programs and developments in the computing field, users have often been adversely affected. Users experience problems with computer programs that are not user friendly. Usability is about satisfying the user needs by allowing the user to accomplish their goals quickly, efficiently and easily. Thus it is crucial that industries invest in computer programs that offer optimum usability. In this research an attempt is made to provide a framework for methodology that can be used to test and evaluate usability in the Transwerk Risk Management Information System, that is Computer Assisted Risk Management Systems (CARMS). I first consider the difference between unusable and usable programs. Usability properties are then identified including properties enhancing effectiveness, efficiency, flexibility, laemability and attitude of the computer program. The CARMS components or modules and users were identified. Usability problems were identified that cause the users to be selective and discouraged to use other components of CARMS. To further verified and address the usability problems identified, the whole program needs to be tested and evaluated. The methodology was laid for how to do usability testing and evaluation in computer program that are currently in use like CARMS. Benefits and limitations of testing and evaluating usability were detailed in this research. It is recommended that, testing and evaluating usability should be done to prevent errors, dissatisfaction and to improve usability of the CARMS program.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In die laaste dekade het die gebruik van rekenaars uitgebrei in die industriele arena in Suid-Afrika. Weens gereelde veranderings in rekenaar programme en ontwikkellings in die informatika veld is gebruikers gereeld nadelig geraak. Gebruikers ervaar probleme met rekenaar programme wat nie gebruikersvriendelik is nie. Bruikbaarheid het te make met bevrediging van gebruikersbehoeftes deur hulle in staat te stel om hulle doelwitte vinnig, doelmatig en maklik te bereik. Dit is dus van kritiese belang dat industriee investeer in rekenaar programme wat optimale bruikbaarheid bied. In hierdie navorsing word gepoog om 'n raamwerk vir metodologie wat gebruik kan word om die bruikbaarheid van die "Transwerk Risk Management Information System" (dit is "Computer Assisted Risk Management Systems" of CARMS) te toets en te evalueer. Ek bespreek eerstens die verskil tussen onbruikbare en bruikbare programme. Bruikbaarheidseienskappe word dan geidentifiseer, insluitend eienskappe wat doeltreffendheid, doelmatigheid, buigsaamheid, aanleerbaarheid en houding van die rekenaar program verbeter. Die CARMS komponente of modules en gebruikers is geidentifiseer. Bruikbaarheidsprobleme is geidentifiseer wat veroorsaak dat gebruikers selektief raak en ontmoedig raak om ander komponente van CARMS te gebruik. Om verder die geidentifiseerde bruikbaarheidsprobleme te verifieer en adreseer moet die hele program getoets en evalueer word. Die metodologie is vasgele waarvolgens bruikbaarheidstoetsing en evaluasie van rekenaar programme wat tans in gebruik is (soos CARMS) gedoen kan word. Voordele en beperkings van bruikbaarheidstoetsing en -evaluasie is in hierdie navorsing vervat. Dit word aanbeveel dat bruikbaarheidstoetsing en -evaluasie gedoen moet word om foute en ontevredenheid te voorkom en om die bruikbaarheid van die CARMS program te verbeter.
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Von, Raubenheimer Albert Ludwich. "Strategic supply chain management using simulation." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2005. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-12012005-092956/.
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Mucino, Marco. "CCGT performance simulation and diagnostics for operations optimisation and risk management." Thesis, Cranfield University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1826/2806.
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This thesis presents a techno-economic performance simulation and diagnostics
computational system for the operations optimisation and risk management of a CCGT
power station. The project objective was to provide a technological solution to a
business problem originated at the Manx Electricity Authority (MEA).
The CCGT performance simulation program was created from the integration of
existing and new performance simulation codes of the main components of a CCGT
power station using Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) in Excel ®. The
specifications of the real gas turbine (GT) engines at MEA demanded the modification
of Turbomatch, a GT performance simulation code developed at Cranfield University.
The new capabilities were successfully validated against previous work in the public
domain. In the case of the steam cycle, the model for a double pressure once-through
steam generator (OTSG) was produced. A novel approach using theoretical thermohydraulic
models for heat exchangers and empiric correlations delivered positive
results. Steamomatch, another code developed at the university, was used for the steam
turbine performance simulation. An economic module based on the practitioners’
definition for spark spread was developed. The economic module makes use of the
technical results, which are permanently accessible through the user interface of the
system. The assessment of an existing gas turbine engine performance diagnostics
system, Pythia, was made. The study tested the capabilities of the program under
different ambient and operating conditions, signal noise levels and sensor faults. A set
of guidelines aimed to increase the success rate of the diagnostic under the data and
sensor restricted scenario presented by at MEA was generated.
Once the development phase was concluded, technical and economic studies on the
particular generation schedule for a cold day of winter 2007 were conducted. Variable
ambient and operating conditions for each of the 48 time block forming the schedule
were considered. The results showed error values below the 2% band for key technical
parameters such as fuel flow, thermal efficiency and power output. On the economic
side, the study quantified the loss making operation strategy of the plant during the offpeak
market period of the day. But it also demonstrated the profit made during the peak
hours lead to an overall positive cash flow for the day.
A number of optimisation strategies to increase the profitability of the plant were
proposed highlighting the economic benefit of them. These scenarios were based on the
technical performance simulation of the plant under these specific conditions, increasing
the reliability of the study. Finally, a number of risk management strategies aimed to
protect the operations of a power generator from the main technical and economic risk
variables were outlined.
It was concluded that the use of techno-economic advanced tools such as eCCGT and
Pythia can positively affect the way an operator manages a power generation asset
through the implementation of virtually proven optimisation and risk management
strategies.
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Ben, Jbara Noah. "Risk management in supply chains : a simulation and model-based approach." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018GREAI003.
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La maîtrise des risques est un enjeu majeur pour les entreprises. Loin d’être l’apanage des seules catastrophes naturelles, les perturbations des chaînes logistiques actuelles peuvent parfois être causées par des événements mineurs amplifiés par les failles d’organisations industrielles de plus en plus complexes. Nombreux sont les exemples de ces perturbations avec des conséquences économiques graves.La gestion des risques dans les chaines logistiques est un thème récent et les méthodes et outils actuels ne répondent pas encore totalement aux préoccupations des gestionnaires de ces chaînes logistiques. Une grande aide peut être apportée par la simulation des événements affectant les chaînes. Cependant malgré son efficacité pour couvrir la complexité de la chaîne, la simulation reste encore difficile à mettre en œuvre, notamment dans les phases de création et d’exploitation des modèles.Le but de cette thèse est de faciliter l’utilisation de la simulation pour l’analyse des risques dans les chaines logistiques. Ainsi, nous avons développé un référentiel de modélisation pour la simulation qui permet d’assurer une construction facile des modèles de la structure, du comportement et des risques inhérents aux chaines logistiques. Ce référentiel est bati sur un ensemble de metamodèles et de bibliothèques adaptés à la définition de chaînes logistiques et définis sur la base du référentiel SCOR. Ajouté à cela, nous avons proposé un guide de traduction permettant le passage d’un modèle conceptuel de chaîne logistique vers un modèle de simulation permettant de tester les scénarios de risque. Une bibliothèque de modules de simulation a été proposée pour accompagner ce passage. Une étude de cas a été menée pour tester et valider partiellement l’approche proposéeControlling risks is an important issue for companies. Far from being only the prerogative of natural disasters, the disruptions of today's supply chains can sometimes be caused by minor events amplified by the flaws of increasingly complex industrial organizations, causing severe economic losses.Risk management in supply chains is a recent theme and the proposed solutions are not yet able to meet the needs of practitioners. One of the solutions to analyse risks is using simulation. But, despite its effectiveness to cover the complexity of the chain, it still presents a major weakness which is the difficulty of implementation.The aim of this thesis is to facilitate and to adapt the simulation for risk analysis of supply chains. Thus, we have developed a modeling framework for simulation which enables an easy construction of models of supply chain structure, behavior and if the associated risks. This is done through the proposition of a set of meta-models and libraries, defined on the basis of the SCOR reference model. In addition, we proposed a translation guide for the translation of the conceptual model of supply chains into a simulation model and enabling testing risk scenario. Additionaly, we developed a library of simulation modules.A case study was conducted and the results show the relevance of the proposed approach
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Gerardi, Nicole. "Evaluation of computer-based simulation for pain management education." Honors in the Major Thesis, University of Central Florida, 2013. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETH/id/847.
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Effective pain management is an elusive concept in the acute care setting. Improving nurses' knowledge about optimal pain management is one way to improve the patient's pain experience. A computer-simulation game was developed as an alternative method of teaching the subject of pain management to nursing students. In the game, two patient scenarios are presented, one male and one female. Both patients present with acute pain and request help from the nurse. The player progresses through a series of nine questions as the scenarios unfold, each with one best or correct answer. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the game's potential as a teaching method compared to traditional methods of teaching, such as a lecture. A total of 30 nursing students participated in the study. After playing through the game, each student was asked to complete a post-game survey consisting of 10 standard 5-point Likert scale items and five open-ended questions. The survey was used to evaluate the students' enjoyment of the game, educational benefits, preference compared to traditional teaching methods, and perceived potential to change nursing practice. Results of the survey show that the majority of nursing students enjoyed playing the game and found it captured their attention more than traditional teaching methods. Nine out of the ten Likert scale items received universal high scores. Nursing students were receptive to the computer-simulation game as a teaching method and found it preferable to traditional methods.B.S.N.
Bachelors
Nursing
Nursing
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Kleinknecht, Manuel. "Improving market risk management with heuristic algorithms." Thesis, University of Essex, 2017. http://repository.essex.ac.uk/20426/.
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Recent changes in the regulatory framework for banking supervision increase the regulatory oversight and minimum capital requirements for financial institutions. In this thesis, we research active portfolio optimisation techniques with heuristic algorithms to manage new regulatory challenges faced in risk management. We first study if heuristic algorithms can support risk management to find global optimal solutions to reduce the regulatory capital requirements. In a benchmark comparison of variance, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective functions combined with different optimisation routines, we show that the Threshold Accepting (TA) heuristic algorithm reduces the capital requirements compared with the Trust-Region (TR) local search algorithm. Secondly, we introduce a new risk management approach based on the Unconditional Coverage test to optimally manage the regulatory capital requirements, while avoiding to over- or underestimate the portfolio risk. In an empirical analysis with TA and TR optimisation, we show that our new approach successfully optimises the portfolio risk-return profile and reduces the capital requirements. Next, we analyse the effect of different estimation techniques on the capital requirements. More specifically, empirical and analytical VaR and CVaR estimation is compared with a simulation-based approach using a multivariate GARCH process. The optimisation is performed using the Population-Based Incremental Learning (PBIL) algorithm. We find that the parametric and empirical distribution assumption generate similar results and neither of them clearly outperforms the other. However, portfolios optimised with the simulation approach reduce the capital requirements by about 11%. Finally, we introduce a global VaR and CVaR hedging approach with multivariate GARCH process and PBIL optimisation. Our hedging framework provides a self-financing hedge that reduces transaction costs by using standardised derivatives. The empirical study shows that the new approach increases the stability of the portfolio while avoiding high transaction costs. The results are compared with benchmark portfolios optimised with a Genetic Algorithm.
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Croce, Steven A. "Risk management framework for evaluating suppliers." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/40544.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science; and, (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management; in conjunction with the Leaders for Manufacturing Program at MIT, 2007.Includes bibliographical references (p. 50).
Sikorsky Aircraft Co. currently finds itself in a critical growth period, in terms of both sales contracts and supplier agreements. Popular supply chain strategies preach reduction and simplification of the supply base, but Sikorsky encounters "must-grow" situations with their supply base, due to factors like international offset provisions and capacity needs. Growth in the number of supplier relationships each year strains the supply management department and makes it difficult to complete full analyses of new suppliers. The goal of this research is to provide tools that combine the knowledge of experienced supply chain employees with statistical analysis in a package that will allow any member of the supply chain group to complete a thorough supplier risk analysis in the minimum amount of time. To address Sikorsky's supply chain risk, a concrete framework is desired that will ask the right questions about a supplier and produce an indicator of the level of risk involved in a supplier agreement. This project sets out to identify the connections between the sources of risk (risk drivers) and affected performance metrics (effects). These connections can be presented in an easy-to-use tool that enables quick yet thorough analyses. The framework links supplier analyses with the resulting performance, and uses the results to make data driven inferences about future supplier relationships. This allows quick and informed assessments by anyone in the supply chain group, regardless of their level of experience. The result of this project is a software-based risk assessment framework with scoring based on historical Sikorsky supplier performance.
(cont.) The data have revealed through statistical regression analysis strong correlations between a number of risk drivers and resulting supplier performance. These correlations can be used to score suppliers with similar attributes through the model. In addition, the model can be used as a knowledge retention mechanism of supplier performance data to facilitate future refinements of both the model and risk driver/effect correlations.
by Steven A. Croce.
M.B.A.
S.M.
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Brink, Charlotte H. "Measuring political risk as risks to foreign investment : a computer-assisted model for analysing and managing political risk." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/52929.
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Thesis (PhD)--University of Stellenbosch, 2002.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: As the title suggests, the major challenge that this study faces is to set out and design a model for analysing and enabling the management of political risk as investment risk - a model that is both sensitive to and reflective of the comprehensive business and investment climate in a country, not only credit or country risk, or only pure political risk in its narrowest definition. In reading about past and more recent research in the field of political risk analysis, it becomes clear that many authors begin by noting the diversity and the discrepancies of the existing definitions of political risk, but evidence in political risk insurance shows that the major perceived political risks that investors insure their interests against seem to be confiscation, expropriation and nationalisation. In the light of this study's findings though, a case can be put forward for urging that the conceptualisation of political risk be extended to further include any or all of the micro political risk factors and their indicators that have been identified to ensure that political events do not impact negatively on a foreign company's profitability. Foreign investors put assets at risk to achieve their objectives and the assessment of these risks, including political risks, is the key to successful operations. Opportunities and risks are often two sides of the same coin and political risk comprises a large part of the environmental forces in terms of the management challenges a Multinational Company (MNC) faces in any investment climate. A firm's foreign investment strategy deals with the positioning of the organisation in an uncertain host country environment and investment climate. This study attempts to explain how a firm's political risk exposure, which refers to the sensitivity of a firm's projected profitability and operationability in a host country to changes in the investment climate, could be managed and reduced. It is hoped that political risk analysis and management can assist foreign operations in managing the risks that might have otherwise proven to be destructive to profitability and operationability. It is irresponsible to present a potential investor with a risk assessment that does not incorporate political risk factors and their indicators, let alone environmental, societal and socio-economic risk factor indicators. Ultimately any business climate, regardless of the country being studied, is underwritten by a political system, political climate, political culture and business culture of the system in which foreign business wishes to operate profitably. What is often labelled as unnecessary and irrelevant detail in risk analysis often results in a lack of using micro risk factors and their indicators and an underestimation of the importance of such micro risk indicators. Hopefully this study takes up the challenge of showing that political risk can be managed and political risk analysis can be made more precise - that it is possible to measure and manage political risk.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Soos die titel van hierdie studie voorstel is een van die grootste uitdagings die ontwerp van 'n model vir die analise van politieke risiko as beleggingsrisiko - 'n model wat ter selfde tyd sensitief is vir en weerspieëlend van 'n land se algemeen omvattende besigheids- en beleggingsklimaat, en nie slegs suiwer politieke risiko in die nouste sin van die woord nie. 'n Literatuurstudie van meer onlangse navorsing, asook navorsing wat in die verlede gedoen is oor politieke risiko en die analise daarvan, dui daarop dat baie outeurs melding maak van die diversiteit en teenstrydighede in die bestaande definisies van politieke risiko. Die teenwoordigheid van versekering teen politieke risiko wys egter daarop dat die primêre politieke risiko's waarteen beleggers hulle belange verseker meesal nasionalisering en onteiening is, asook die beslaglegging op beleggings. Teen die agtergrond van hierdie studie se bevindinge, kan daar egter 'n saak uitgemaak word vir die verbreeding van die konseptualisering van politieke risiko om enige of alle van die mikro-politieke risiko faktorindikatore wat in hierdie studie identifiseer word in te sluit, om sodoende te verseker dat die negatiewe gevolge wat politieke gebeure moontlik mag inhou vir 'n buitelandse maatskappy se belange, sover moontlik beperk word. Buitelandse beleggers stel bates bloot aan risiko's ten einde voorafgestelde doelwitte te bereik en die assessering van hierdie risiko's, insluitende politieke risiko's, is 'n groot bydraende' faktor tot die suksesvolle bedryf van buitelandse beleggings. Geleenthede en risiko's is dikwels twee kante van diesIefde muntstuk en politieke risiko maak 'n groot deel uit van die uitdagende beleggingsomgewing waarin die bestuur van 'n multinasionale korporasie (MNK) daagliks moet funksioneer. 'n Maatskappy se buitelandse beleggingstrategie handel met die posisionering van die organisasie in die onvoorspelbare beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land. Hierdie studie poog ook om te verduidelik hoe die mate waarin 'n firma blootgestel word aan politieke risiko, met ander woorde die sensitiwiteit van 'n firma se voorgenome winsgewendheid en bedryf teenoor veranderinge in die beleggingsklimaat van 'n vreemde land, bestuur en verminder kan word. Daar word gehoop dat politieke risiko analise en die bestuur daarvan 'n bydra kan lewer tot buitelandse besighede se bestuur van hierdie risiko's, wat andersins 'n vemietgende impak kan hê op die winsgewendheid van buitelandse bedrywighede. Dit is onverantwoordelik om aan 'n buitelandse belegger 'n risiko analise voor te lê wat nie politieke risiko faktore en die daarmee gepaardgaande indikatore insluit nie. Die studie argumenteer verder dat faktorindikatore wat die fisiese omgewing, sosiale asook sosio-ekonomiese faktore aanspreek ook in 'n risiko analise ingesluit moet word. Oplaas is enige besigheidsklimaat, nieteenstaande die land wat bestudeer word, onderskryf deur 'n politieke stelsel, politieke klimaat, politieke kultuur en besigheidskultuur van die stelsel waarin die buitelandse besigheid winsgewende resultate as doelwit het. Wat dikwels beskou word as onnodige en irrelevante detail in risiko analise lei dikwels tot 'n gebrek aan die insluiting van mikro-risiko faktore en hulle indikatore weens 'n onderskatting van die noodsaaklikheid daarvan om juis sulke mikro-risiko faktorindikatore in 'n risiko analise in te bou. Hierdie studie aanvaar hopelik die uitdaging om te wys dat politieke risiko tog bestuur kan word en dat politieke risiko analise tog meer eksak gemaak kan word - dat dit wel moontlik is om politieke risiko te meet en bestuur.
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Kinder, Andrew M. K. "A model-based approach to System of Systems risk management." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2017. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/27553.
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The failure of many System of Systems (SoS) enterprises can be attributed to the inappropriate application of traditional Systems Engineering (SE) processes within the SoS domain, because of the mistaken belief that a SoS can be regarded as a single large, or complex, system. SoS Engineering (SoSE) is a sub-discipline of SE; Risk Management and Modelling and Simulation (M&S) are key areas within SoSE, both of which also lie within the traditional SE domain. Risk Management of SoS requires a different approach to that currently taken for individual systems; if risk is managed for each component system then it cannot be assumed that the aggregated affect will be to mitigate risk at the SoS level. A literature review was undertaken examining three themes: (1) SoS Engineering (SoSE), (2) M&S and (3) Risk. Theme 1 of the literature provided insight into the activities comprising SoSE and its difference from traditional SE with risk management identified as a key activity. The second theme discussed the application of M&S to SoS, providing an output, which supported the identification of appropriate techniques and concluding that, the inherent complexity of a SoS required the use of M&S in order to support SoSE activities. Current risk management approaches were reviewed in theme 3 as well as the management of SoS risk. Although some specific examples of the management of SoS risk were found, no mature, general approach was identified, indicating a gap in current knowledge. However, it was noted most of these examples were underpinned by M&S approaches. It was therefore concluded a general approach SoS risk management utilising M&S methods would be of benefit. In order to fill the gap identified in current knowledge, this research proposed a new model based approach to Risk Management where risk identification was supported by a framework, which combined SoS system of interest dimensions with holistic risk types, where the resulting risks and contributing factors are captured in a causal network. Analysis of the causal network using a model technique selection tool, developed as part of this research, allowed the causal network to be simplified through the replacement of groups of elements within the network by appropriate supporting models. The Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was identified as a suitable method to represent SoS risk. Supporting models run in Monte Carlo Simulations allowed data to be generated from which the risk BBNs could learn, thereby providing a more quantitative approach to SoS risk management. A method was developed which provided context to the BBN risk output through comparison with worst and best-case risk probabilities. The model based approach to Risk Management was applied to two very different case studies: Close Air Support mission planning and the Wheat Supply Chain, UK National Food Security risks, demonstrating its effectiveness and adaptability. The research established that the SoS SoI is essential for effective SoS risk identification and analysis of risk transfer, effective SoS modelling requires a range of techniques where suitability is determined by the problem context, the responsibility for SoS Risk Management is related to the overall SoS classification and the model based approach to SoS risk management was effective for both application case studies.
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Fucik, Markus. "Bayesian risk management : "Frequency does not make you smarter"." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2010. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2011/5308/.
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Within our research group Bayesian Risk Solutions we have coined the idea of a Bayesian Risk Management (BRM). It claims (1) a more transparent and diligent data analysis as well as (2)an open-minded incorporation of human expertise in risk management. In this dissertation we formulize a framework for BRM based on the two pillars Hardcore-Bayesianism (HCB) and Softcore-Bayesianism (SCB) providing solutions for the claims above.
For data analysis we favor Bayesian statistics with its Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation algorithm. It provides a full illustration of data-induced uncertainty beyond classical point-estimates. We calibrate twelve different stochastic processes to four years of CO2 price data. Besides, we calculate derived risk measures (ex ante/ post value-at-risks, capital charges, option prices) and compare them to their classical counterparts.
When statistics fails because of a lack of reliable data we propose our integrated Bayesian Risk Analysis (iBRA) concept. It is a basic guideline for an expertise-driven quantification of critical risks. We additionally review elicitation techniques and tools supporting experts to express their uncertainty.
Unfortunately, Bayesian thinking is often blamed for its arbitrariness. Therefore, we introduce the idea of a Bayesian due diligence judging expert assessments according to their information content and their inter-subjectivity.Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit den Ansätzen eines Bayes’schen Risikomanagements zur Messung von Risiken. Dabei konzentriert sich die Arbeit auf folgende zentrale Fragestellungen: (1) Wie ist es möglich, transparent Risiken zu quantifizieren, falls nur eine begrenzte Anzahl an geeigneten historischen Beobachtungen zur Datenanalyse zur Verfügung steht? (2) Wie ist es möglich, transparent Risiken zu quantifizieren, falls mangels geeigneter historischer Beobachtungen keine Datenanalyse möglich ist? (3) Inwieweit ist es möglich, Willkür und Beliebigkeit bei der Risikoquantifizierung zu begrenzen? Zur Beantwortung der ersten Frage schlägt diese Arbeit die Anwendung der Bayes’schen Statistik vor. Im Gegensatz zu klassischen Kleinste-Quadrate bzw. Maximum-Likelihood Punktschätzern können Bayes’sche A-Posteriori Verteilungen die dateninduzierte Parameter- und Modellunsicherheit explizit messen. Als Anwendungsbeispiel werden in der Arbeit zwölf verschiedene stochastische Prozesse an CO2-Preiszeitreihen mittels des effizienten Bayes’schen Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Simulationsalgorithmus kalibriert. Da die Bayes’sche Statistik die Berechnung von Modellwahrscheinlichkeiten zur kardinalen Modellgütemessung erlaubt, konnten Log-Varianz Prozesse als mit Abstand beste Modellklasse identifiziert werden. Für ausgewählte Prozesse wurden zusätzlich die Auswirkung von Parameterunsicherheit auf abgeleitete Risikomaße (ex-ante/ ex-post Value-at-Risks, regulatorische Kapitalrücklagen, Optionspreise) untersucht. Generell sind die Unterschiede zwischen Bayes’schen und klassischen Risikomaßen umso größer, je komplexer die Modellannahmen für den CO2-Preis sind. Überdies sind Bayes’sche Value-at-Risks und Kapitalrücklagen konservativer als ihre klassischen Pendants (Risikoprämie für Parameterunsicherheit). Bezüglich der zweiten Frage ist die in dieser Arbeit vertretene Position, dass eine Risikoquantifizierung ohne (ausreichend) verlässliche Daten nur durch die Berücksichtigung von Expertenwissen erfolgen kann. Dies erfordert ein strukturiertes Vorgehen. Daher wird das integrated Bayesian Risk Analysis (iBRA) Konzept vorgestellt, welches Konzepte, Techniken und Werkzeuge zur expertenbasierten Identifizierung und Quantifizierung von Risikofaktoren und deren Abhängigkeiten vereint. Darüber hinaus bietet es Ansätze für den Umgang mit konkurrierenden Expertenmeinungen. Da gerade ressourceneffiziente Werkzeuge zur Quantifizierung von Expertenwissen von besonderem Interesse für die Praxis sind, wurden im Rahmen dieser Arbeit der Onlinemarkt PCXtrade und die Onlinebefragungsplattform PCXquest konzipiert und mehrfach erfolgreich getestet. In zwei empirischen Studien wurde zudem untersucht, inwieweit Menschen überhaupt in der Lage sind, ihre Unsicherheiten zu quantifizieren und inwieweit sie Selbsteinschätzungen von Experten bewerten. Die Ergebnisse deuten an, dass Menschen zu einer Selbstüberschätzung ihrer Prognosefähigkeiten neigen und tendenziell hohes Vertrauen in solche Experteneinschätzungen zeigen, zu denen der jeweilige Experte selbst hohes Zutrauen geäußert hat. Zu letzterer Feststellung ist jedoch zu bemerken, dass ein nicht unbeträchtlicher Teil der Befragten sehr hohe Selbsteinschätzung des Experten als negativ ansehen. Da der Bayesianismus Wahrscheinlichkeiten als Maß für die persönliche Unsicherheit propagiert, bietet er keinerlei Rahmen für die Verifizierung bzw. Falsifizierung von Einschätzungen. Dies wird mitunter mit Beliebigkeit gleichgesetzt und könnte einer der Gründe sein, dass offen praktizierter Bayesianismus in Deutschland ein Schattendasein fristet. Die vorliegende Arbeit stellt daher das Konzept des Bayesian Due Diligence zur Diskussion. Es schlägt eine kriterienbasierte Bewertung von Experteneinschätzungen vor, welche insbesondere die Intersubjektivität und den Informationsgehalt von Einschätzungen beleuchtet.
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Alzahrani, Saleh. "Dynamic simulation of the impact of risk events and risk cost in KSA PPP projects." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2015. http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/2013619/.
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The majority of risk events in Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects are due to the complexity of these projects. It requires the best of risk allocation to the appropriate party that is able to manage and control the allocated risks in order to achieve best value for money. Many researchers stated that the influence of a risk might trigger another risk event. Sterman (1992) identified that large-scale projects are complex and they have extremely dynamic and interdependent risks and uncertainties over their life cycle. Williams (2002) also state that in a large scale construction project the risk generally interact with each other in a nonlinear manner over time. Investigating the interaction between risk factors can help to decrease uncertainties. Dey and Ogunlana (2004) state that there it is necessity to analyse the interactions between risk events in complex projects. In recent approaches to risk management in PPP projects, experts tend to consider risk factors as being independent and ignore the influence of interaction between risk events over the project life cycle. This undermines the effectiveness of project risk estimation. In this work, further investigation on the interaction between risk factors and their impact on the risk cost in PPP projects will be investigated in Saudi Arabia based on first hand data collected from practitioner working in the kingdom. A questionnaire was designed and sent to a representative set of 250 practitioners in the field of Saudi PPP projects. 68 practitioners completed and returned the questionnaire with a 27% response rate. The collected data was pre-processed, processed and analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Using this statistical tool, regression analysis was carried out to build the equation of impact of risk events in each risk category. After that, the BestFit software was used to find best probability distribution fit for each risk factor. In This study, a new modelling approach for mapping risks and analysing the impact of risk events interaction considering the best distribution fit for each risk factor is developed using System Dynamics (SD) techniques (VENSIM software). This proposed model can help to estimate outturn construction unit cost of PPP projects and risk cost that is influenced by risk events interaction. Based on comprehensive prototyping and validation, the proposed approach is found to be robust valid tool for addressing real impact of risk events and evaluating the expected risk cost, which can help to improve risk allocation in PPP projects.
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Karanwal, Anup. "Implementation of Simulation Techniques for Supply Chain Risk Management in Process Industry." Thesis, KTH, Industriell produktion, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-218019.
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El-adaway, Islam Hassan. "Construction dispute mitigation through multi-agent based simulation and risk management modeling." [Ames, Iowa : Iowa State University], 2008.
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Nyfjord, Jaana. "Towards integrating agile development and risk management." Doctoral thesis, Kista : Department of Computer and Systems Sciences (together with KTH), Stockholm University, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-8138.
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Lu, Kaiyuan. "Data distribution management schemes for HLA-compliant distributed simulation systems." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/27151.
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Data Distribution Management (DDM), one of the six services provided by High Level Architecture and Run-Time Infrastructure, provides an efficient and scalable mechanism for data routing among hosts in distributed simulations. Traditional, DDM schemes are classified into two main types, region-based methods and grid-based methods. Currently, the time, computation and communication overhead of DDMs are still issues for large-scale simulations. We proposed two new DDM schemes addressing these issues. Our first algorithm, which we refer to as optimized dynamic grid-based DDM scheme, aims at further reducing irrelevant data that might be received by simulation entities in dynamic grid-based approach [11], by enforcing a second level of sender-side data filtering mechanism. Our second algorithm, which we refer to as grid-filtered region-based DDM, uses a threshold value of coverage percentage to determines if exact matching is necessary. In this thesis, we present and discuss the implementation of our proposed DDM algorithms, and report on their performance based on an extensive set of simulation experiments. Last but not least, we present the preliminary work we have done on real-time enabling scheme to RTI for HLA-compliant simulations.
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Jivakanont, Vacharakoon. "Risk, risk management and settlement efficiency in securities settlement and payment systems in Thailand : A simulation approach." Thesis, University of Reading, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.529947.
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Lee, Jong Sik. "Space-based data management for high-performance distributed simulation." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/279803.
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There is a rapidly growing demand to model and simulate complex large-scale distributed systems and to collaboratively share geographically dispersed data assets and computing resources to perform such distributed simulation with reasonable communication and computation resources. Interest management schemes have been studied in the literature. In this dissertation we propose an interest-based quantization scheme that is created by combining a quantization scheme and an interest management scheme. We show that this approach provides a superior solution to reduce message traffic and network data transmission load. As an environmental platform for data distribution management, we extended the DEVS/HLA distributed modeling and simulation environment. This environment allows us to study interest-based quantization schemes in order to achieve effective reduction of data communication in distributed simulation. In this environment, system modeling is provided by the DEVS (Discrete Event System Specification) formalism and supports effective modeling based on hierarchical and modular object-oriented technology. Distributed simulation is performed by a highly reliable facility using the HLA (High Level Architecture). The extended DEVS/HLA environment, called DEVS/GDDM (Generic Data Distribution Management), provides a high level abstraction to specify a set of interest-based quantization schemes. This dissertation presents a performance analysis of centralized and distributed configurations to study the scalability of the interest-based quantization schemes. These results illustrate the advantages of using space-based quantization in reducing both network load and overall simulation execution time. A real world application, relating to ballistic missiles simulation, demonstrates the operation of the DEVS/GDDM environment. Theoretical and empirical results of the ballistic missiles application show that the space-based quantization scheme, especially with predictive and multiplexing extensions, is very effective and scalable due to reduced local computation demands and extremely favorable communication data reduction with a reasonably small potential for error. This realistic case study establishes that the DEVS/GDDM environment can provide scalable distributed simulation for practical, real-world applications.
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Gandonou, Jean-Marc A. "ESSAYS ON PRECISION AGRICULTURE TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT." UKnowledge, 2005. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/gradschool_diss/227.
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Precision agriculture (PA) can be defined as a set of technologies that have helped propel agriculture into the computerized information-based world, and is designed to help farmers get greater control over the management of farm operations. Because of its potential to spatially reduce yield variability within the field through variable rate application of nutrients it is thought to be a production risk management instrument. Subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) is another production risk management technology that is generating interest from the farming community as a result of new technological improvements that facilitate equipment maintenance and reduces water consumption.In the first article the production risk management potential of these two technologies was investigated both for each technology and for a combination of the two. Simulated yield data for corn, wheat and soybeans were obtained using EPIC, a crop growth simulation model. Mathematical programming techniques were used in a standard E-V framework to reproduce the production environment of a Kentucky commercial grain farmer in Henderson County. Results show that for risk averse farmers, the lowest yield variability was obtained with the SDI technology. The highest profit level was obtained when the two technologies were combined.Investment in two sets of equipments (PA and SDI) to maximize profitability and reduce risk could however expose many farm operations to financial risk. In the second article, a discrete stochastic sequential programming (DSSP) model was used to analyze the impact of PA and/or SDI equipment investment on the farm's liquidity and debt to asset ratio.In the last article, the cotton sector in Benin, West Africa, was utilized to study the transferability of PA technology to a developing country. Properly introduced, precision agriculture (PA) technology could help farmers increase profitability, improve management practices, and reduce soil depletion. An improved production system could also help farmers better cope with the policy risk related to cotton production. Results from the two models show that PA is less profitable for the risk neutral farmer but more profitable for the risk averse one when compared to conventional production practices. The adoption of the new technology also has very little impact on the choice of crop rotation made by the farmer.
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Rey, Maria (Maria de los Santos), and Xiaofan Xu. "Identifying inventory excess and service risk in medical devices : a simulation approach." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/112859.
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Thesis: M. Eng. in Supply Chain Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Supply Chain Management Program, 2017.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 81-82).
Medical devices companies struggle to balance between inventory and service performance, as the products are non-interchangeable and inventory investment is expensive. To find the right level of inventory, we first used unsupervised clustering method to find demand pattern uncertainty for each product. Then, we developed a simulation-based approach to determine the required inventory to achieve a required service level guarantee. We further explored policy changes in the demand fulfillment process to identify how the company can effectively improve performance without increasing inventory level. After comparing different results, we concluded that reduction of replenishment lead time is the most effective measure. The methodology can be applied to a wide range of products and sectors.
by Maria Rey and Xiaofan Xu.
M. Eng. in Supply Chain Management
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Lee, Hwayoung. "Portfolio liquidity risk management with expected shortfall constraints." Thesis, University of Essex, 2016. http://repository.essex.ac.uk/17762/.
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In this thesis we quantify the potential cost of liquidity constraints on a long equity portfolio using the liquidity risk framework of Acerbi and Scandolo (2008). The model modifies the classical mark-to-market valuation model, and incorporates the impact of liquidity policies of portfolios on the liquidity adjustment valuation (LVA). Also, we suggest a quantitative indicator that scores market liquidity ranging from 0 to 1 (perfect liquidity) for a portfolio with possible liquidity constraints. The thesis consists of three major studies. In the first one, we compute LVA given the cash, minimum weight and portfolio expected shortfall (ES) liquidity policies on a long equity portfolio. Several numerical examples in the results demonstrate the importance associated the incorporation of the liquidity policy in the liquidity risk valuation. In the second study, we quantify the execution costs and the revenue risk when implementing trading strategies over multiple periods by employing the transaction costs measure of Garleanu and Pedersen (2013). The portfolio liquidity costs estimated from the model of Garleanu and Pedersen (2013) are compared with the costs estimated from the liquidity risk measure of Finger (2011). In the third study, we estimate the liquidity-adjusted portfolio ES for a long equity portfolio with the liquidity constraints. Portfolio pure market P&L scenarios are based on initial positions, and the liquidity adjustments are based on positions sold, which depend on the specified liquidity constraints. Portfolio pure market P&L scenarios and state-dependent liquidity adjustments are integrated to obtain liquidity-adjusted P&L scenarios. Then, we apply the liquidity score method (Meucci, 2012) on the liquidity-plus-market P&L distribution to quantify the market liquidity for the portfolio. The results show the importance of pricing liquidity risk with liquidity constraints. The liqiii uidity costs can vary greatly on different liquidity policies, portfolio MtM values, market situation and time to liquidation.
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Ogbanufe, Obiageli. "Three Essays on Information Security Risk Management." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2018. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1157576/.
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Today's environment is filled with the proliferation of cyber-attacks that result in losses for organizations and individuals. Hackers often use compromised websites to distribute malware, making it difficult for individuals to detect. The impact of clicking through a link on the Internet that is malware infected can result in consequences such as private information theft and identity theft. Hackers are also known to perpetrate cyber-attacks that result in organizational security breaches that adversely affect organizations' finances, reputation, and market value. Risk management approaches for minimizing and recovering from cyber-attack losses and preventing further cyber-attacks are gaining more importance. Many studies exist that have increased our understanding of how individuals and organizations are motivated to reduce or avoid the risks of security breaches and cyber-attacks using safeguard mechanisms. The safeguards are sometimes technical in nature, such as intrusion detection software and anti-virus software. Other times, the safeguards are procedural in nature such as security policy adherence and security awareness and training. Many of these safeguards fall under the risk mitigation and risk avoidance aspects of risk management, and do not address other aspects of risk management, such as risk transfer. Researchers have argued that technological approaches to security risks are rarely sufficient for providing an overall protection of information system assets. Moreover, others argue that an overall protection must include a risk transfer strategy. Hence, there is a need to understand the risk transfer approach for managing information security risks. Further, in order to effectively address the information security puzzle, there also needs to be an understanding of the nature of the perpetrators of the problem – the hackers. Though hacker incidents proliferate the news, there are few theory based hacker studies. Even though the very nature of their actions presents a difficulty in their accessibility to research, a glimpse of how hackers perpetrate attacks can be obtained through the examination of their knowledge sharing behavior. Gaining some understanding about hackers through their knowledge sharing behavior may help researchers fine-tune future information security research. The insights could also help practitioners design more effective defensive security strategies and risk management efforts aimed at protecting information systems. Hence, this dissertation is interested in understanding the hackers that perpetrate cyber-attacks on individuals and organizations through their knowledge sharing behavior. Then, of interest also is how individuals form their URL click-through intention in the face of proliferated cyber risks. Finally, we explore how and why organizations that are faced with the risk of security breaches, commit to cyberinsurance as a risk management strategy. Thus, the fundamental research question of this dissertation is: how do individuals and organizations manage information security risks?
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Mallinson, Clyde A. "Risk analysis assessment of the influence of geological factors on exploration and mining investment alternatives : development of a microcomputer simulation model." Thesis, Rhodes University, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1001564.
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A microcomputer risk analysis model is developed and used in an exploration - delineation simulation to analyse in particular the effects of geological factors on exploration mining investment alternatives. Analysis of results indicate that geological parameters can have profound effects on such investment alternatives and that the role of the geologist in determining and evaluating the significance of the various geological factors is critical. Simulation examples highlight some of the key geological parameters and show how changes in these parameters influence both the expected mean results and the standard deviations of such means. The risk analysis model provides an ideal means of conveying the importance of the different geoiogical factors on exploration - delineation - mining investment alternatives and may be used as a geological education aid
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Wang, Lawrence C. (Lawrence Chi-Chung) 1977. "AMPS : a simulation system for modeling and analyzing the psychology of risk-taking." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/87878.
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Thesis (M.Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2003.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 109-110).
by Lawrence C. Wang.
M.Eng.
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Mazenko, Gregory J. (Gregory Joseph). "Optimization of a battery manufacturing line using computer simulation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/38081.
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Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, and Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering, 1995.Includes bibliographical references (p. 97).
by Gregory J. Mazenko.
M.S.
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Park, Joongwoo Brian. "Capacity control in network revenue management : clustering and risk-aversion." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/58181.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 53-54).
Network revenue management is the practice of using optimal decision policies to increase revenues by controlling limited quantities of multiple resources' availability and prices over finite time. It is widely practiced in capacity-constrained service industries such as the airlines, hotels, car rentals, and cruise-lines. A variety of control methods has been introduced for network resource capacity control problem. We propose a clustering method to improve approximation quality. By clustering the legs of the network, one can find tighter upperbound than leg-wise decomposition with loss of computation speed due to larger state space. We have shown that there is more than 6% revenue improvement opportunity by finding the right clustering. With local interchange heuristic and generic heuristics, finding a locally optimal clustering can be done in faster time. We also introduce risk-aversion in network revenue management. We have investigated risk-aversion on network revenue management and also study the impact of risk-aversion parameters in the optimization model on relative revenue-risk performance.
by Joongwoo Brian Park.
S.M.
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Tisell, Victoria. "Risk management of groundwater drawdown in settlement sensitive areas." Thesis, KTH, Mark- och vattenteknik (flyttat 20130630), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-171829.
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A new method for estimation of risks at settlement calculations is presented. By quantifying uncertainties of settlement calculations, it is possible to make risk analysis and to compare the costs of risk reducing efforts with the benefit these efforts would lead to. The settlement estimations are done by combining uncertainties about soil data, groundwater drawdown and settlement calculations. This master degree thesis describes how the groundwater drawdown is estimated using a numerical model. The model reflects the groundwater decrease around a drainage well with respect to estimated groundwater recharge, dependent on the geology and precipitation. There are four parameters in the model which are connected to soil properties and precipitation; hydraulic conductivity for clay, hydraulic conductivity for till, hydraulic conductivity for sand and mean annual net precipitation. Drawdown is estimated in a deterministic and a probabilistic model, where the probabilistic model uses stochastic parameter values in a Monte Carlo simulation. The risks concerning settlements are found when the groundwater model is integrated with a soil model and a settlement model. When integrated, the new model estimates risks related to all three separate models. Results of groundwater drawdown and ground settlement estimations are spatially presented in a sensitivity and risk analysis. By finding and comparing the most influencing parameters of the settlement, project decision makers will have an easier task deciding on what further measures should be focused on.
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Hlupic, Vlatka. "Simulation modelling software approaches to manufacturing problems." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1993. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/56/.
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Increased competition in many industries has resulted in a greater emphasis on developing and using advanced manufacturing systems to improve productivity and reduce costs. The complexity and dynamic behaviour of such systems, make simulation modelling one of the most popular methods to facilitate the design and assess operating strategies of these systems. The growing need for the use of simulation is reflected by a growth in the number of simulation languages and data-driven simulators in the software market. This thesis investigates which characteristics typical manufacturing simulators possess, and how the user requirements can be better fulfilled. For the purpose of software evaluation, a case study has been carried out on a real manufacturing system. Several simulation models of an automated system for electrostatic powder coating have been developed using different simulators. In addition to the evaluation of these simulators, a comprehensive evaluation framework has been developed to facilitate selection of simulation software for modelling manufacturing systems. Different hierarchies of evaluation criteria have been established for different software purposes. In particular, the criteria that have to be satisfied for users in education differ from those for users in industry. A survey has also been conducted involving a number of users of software for manufacturing simulation. The purpose of the survey was to investigate users' opinions about simulation software, and the features that they desire to be incorporated in simulation software. A methodology for simulation software selection is also derived. It consists of guidelines related to the actions to be taken and factors to be considered during the evaluation and selection of simulation software. On the basis of all the findings, proposals on how manufacturing simulators can be improved are made, both for use in education and in industry. These software improvements should result in a reduction in the amount of time and effort needed for simulation model development, and therefore make simulation more beneficial.
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Hengnirun, Somgiat. "A computer simulation model for manurial nitrogen management : environmental aspects (MANIMEA)." Thesis, McGill University, 1996. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=40357.
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The MANIMEA $ rm ( underline{MA}nurial underline{NI}trogen underline{M}anagement{:} underline{E}nvironmental underline{A}spects)$ model is a one-dimensional dynamic model that simultaneously simulates nitrogen transformations (volatilization, net mineralization-immobilization, and denitrification), nitrogen transport (runoff and leaching), plant uptake, and adsorption in homogeneous, unsaturated soils. The simulated system is divided into two components: the applied manure layer and the soil. The model describes the transformation processes occurring in both components separately. It is also capable of accounting for both micro and macroporous flows. In addition, the simulation can be done for time steps shorter than 1 day.The model was developed to be interactive and user-friendly and was constructed on a modular basis using Microsoft FORTRAN PowerStation$ sp circler$ as a compiler. It can be run on an IBM$ sp circler$ or IBM compatible microcomputer with a minimum requirement of a 386 microprocessor with 4 MB RAM. This model was developed as a nitrogen management-oriented model. However, it can also be used to gain further understanding of nitrogen processes for research and teaching purposes.
The accuracy of the stimulation was enhanced by taking into account moisture and temperature variation and distribution in the soil. The SWACROP and the HEAT programs were integrated into the MANIMEA model to generate transient moisture and temperature profiles, respectively. The Numerical Method Of Lines (NMOL) technique, which implements finite difference method, was used to numerically solve the partial differential equations in the model.
Generally, the results generated by the MANIMEA model using the parameters from literature agreed with the results obtained by analytical solutions and from experiments. It was found that the model is highly sensitive to the volatilization and net mineralization rate constants $(K sb{v}$ and $K sb{m}).$ The study showed that the MANIMEA model can be implemented to evaluate nitrogen transformations, transport, and plant uptake for a wide range of climatic and soil conditions and organic type of wastes. Such a tool can contribute to the protection of our environment through a better management of organic nitrogen fertilizer and a better understanding of the nitrogen processes.
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Cates, Grant. "IMPROVING PROJECT MANAGEMENT WITH SIMULATION AND COMPLETION DISTRIBUTI." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2004. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/3255.
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Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. Uncertainty has been identified as a contributing factor in late projects. This uncertainty resides in activity duration estimates, unplanned upsetting events, and the potential unavailability of critical resources. This research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion-time risk assessments. The methodology enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used to determine a project's completion distribution function. The project simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. Deterministic inputs include planned activities and resource requirements. Stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for unplanned upsetting events, and other dynamic constraints upon project activities. Stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Multiple replications of the simulation are run to create the completion distribution function. The methodology was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. Project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions. The first result was improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.Ph.D.
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
Engineering and Computer Science
Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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Lu, Yang, and Kevin Visvanathar. "Demand Deposits : Valuation and Interest Rate Risk Management." Thesis, KTH, Entreprenörskap och Innovation, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-169463.
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In the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, regulatory authorities have implemented stricter policies to ensure more prudent risk management practices among banks. Despite the growing importance of demand deposits for banks, no policies for how to adequately account for the inherent interest rate risk have been introduced. Demand deposits are associated with two sources of uncertainties which make it difficult to assess its risks using standardized models: they lack a predetermined maturity and the deposit rate may be changed at the bank’s discretion. In light of this gap, this study aims to empirically investigate the modeling of the valuation and interest rate risk of demand deposits with two different frameworks: the Economic Value Model Framework (EVM) and the Replicating Portfolio Model Framework (RPM). To analyze the two frameworks, models for the demand deposit rate and demand deposit volume are developed using a comprehensive and novel dataset provided by one the biggest commercial banks in Sweden. The findings indicate that including macroeconomic variables in the modeling of the deposit rate and deposit volume do not improve the modeling accuracy. This is in contrast to what has been suggested by previous studies. The findings also indicate that there are modeling differences between demand deposit categories. Finally, the EVM is found to produce interest rate risks with less variability compared to the RPM.Till foljd av nanskrisen 2008 har regulatoriska myndigheter infort mer strikta regelverk for att framja en sund nansiell riskhantering hos banker. Trots avistakontons okade betydelse for banker har inga regulatoriska riktlinjer introducerats for hur den associerade ranterisken ska hanteras ur ett riskperspektiv. Avistakonton ar forknippade med tva faktorer som forsvarar utvarderingen av dess ranterisk med traditionella ranteriskmetoder: de saknar en forutbestamd loptid och avistarantan kan andras nar sa banken onskar. Med hansyn till detta gap fokuserar denna studie pa att empiriskt analysera tva modelleringsramverk for att vardera och mata ranterisken hos avistakonton: Economic Value Model Framework (EVM) and Replicating Portfolio Model Framework (RPM). Analysen genomfors genom att initialt ta fram modeller for hur avistarantan och volymen pa avistakonton utvecklas over tid med hjalp av ett modernt och unikt dataset fran en av Sveriges storsta kommersiella banker. Studiens resultat indikerar att modellerna for avistarantan och avistavolymen inte forbattras nar makroekonomiska variabler ar inkluderade. Detta ar i kontrast till vad tidigare studier har oreslagit. Vidare visar studiens resultat att det modellerna skiljer sig nar avistakontona ar egmenterade pa en mer granular niva. Slutligen pavisar resultatet att EVM producerar ranteriskestimat som ar mindre kansliga for antanganden an RPM.
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Berrada, Meryem. "DCMS: A Data Analytics and Management System for Molecular Simulation." Scholar Commons, 2015. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/5453.
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Despite the fact that Molecular Simulation systems represent a major research tool in multiple scientific and engineering fields, there is still a lack of systems for effective data management and fast data retrieval and processing. This is mainly due to the nature of MS which generate a very large amount of data - a system usually encompass millions of data information, and one query usually runs for tens of thousands of time frames. For this purpose, we designed and developed a new application, DCMS (A data Analytics and Management System for molecular Simulation), that intends to speed up the process of new discovery in the medical/physics fields.
DCMS stores simulation data in a database; and provides users with a user-friendly interface to upload, retrieve, query, and analyze MS data without having to deal with any raw data. In addition, we also created a new indexing scheme, the Time-Parameterized Spatial (TPS) tree, to accelerate query processing through indexes that take advantage of the locality relationships between atoms. The tree was implemented directly inside the PostgreSQL kernel, on top of the SP-GiST platform. Along with this new tree, two new data types were also defined, as well as new algorithms for five data points' retrieval queries.
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Crosby, Dave. "Project risk management in smaller software teams." Click here to access this resource online, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10292/378.
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This thesis investigates project risk management issues in smaller software teams. Certain gaps in the literature are identified. There is limited literature on what risk management techniques software practitioners use. The studies that are published tend to focus on large software teams. This thesis investigates what risks these smaller teams consider to be important. It also investigates what techniques are perceived to address these risks and how effective those techniques are considered to be. One of those risks is found to be of primary importance, yet this risk is not suggested by the project management literature. This thesis goes on to conduct a more in-depth exploration of that specific risk in the context of these smaller teams Interviews were selected as the most appropriate method to achieve the objectives of the thesis. Nineteen interviews in eight software organisations are conducted to collect data for this thesis. Three different perspectives on project risk were investigated. Those were the perspectives of the; service managers, project managers and developers. Hence a large store of rich information is collated. The results are analysed and a rich set of information is presented in this thesis. As a result of this research it is suggested that smaller software teams may find it useful to consider the 16 risks discussed in this research and how applicable those risks are to their individual organisation. Service managers may need to do more to raise the awareness of the importance of risks associated with ‘customer relationship issues’ within their own organisations. Three risks stood out as areas where future research might be most fruitful. They were; customer relationship issues, introduction of new technology and unrealistic schedules and budgets. Risks related to customer relationship issues were of particular significance and have tended to be over looked in the project management literature. It is submitted that research into standard project risk management approaches may need to be combined with business risk management approaches to gain a full understanding of the risks faced and addressed by these smaller teams.
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Wang, Luoding. "Computer-Simulation-Assisted Lean Manufacturing Training." BYU ScholarsArchive, 2005. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/etd/339.
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This thesis assesses the potential of using computer simulation to aid existing lean manufacturing training methods such as lecture and live simulation. An investigation of this possibility was carried out in conjunction with UMEP's Lean 101 class. In the study, two experimental computer simulation models demonstrating the push and pull production scenarios were constructed using ProModel software. Simulation models were equipped with a Visual Basic interface to aid trainees to manipulate the model via ActiveX. Constructed computer simulation was compared with live simulation to answer these research questions: 1. Was computer simulation able to teach additional lean concepts not covered in live simulations? 2. Was training time less for trainees going through a computer simulation than for those going through a live simulation? 3. Was a computer simulation quicker and easier to set up than a live simulation for trainers? 4. Did computer simulation achieve comparable educational objectives as live simulation? Objective measurements for first three questions were positive and conclusive. For the fourth one, a survey was conducted among trainees of a treatment group (computer simulation only) and a control group (live simulation only) to collect responses. Statistical analysis of the subjective responses indicated the computer simulation aided the trainees to learn and implement lean manufacturing, but was not as effective as live simulation. Holistically, these results did not warrant the complete changeover from live simulation to computer simulation. Yet, a combined implementation of computer simulation and live simulation was proposed to reap the benefits from the best of both approaches.
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Ben, Hadj Saifeddine. "Essays on risk management and financial stability." Thesis, Paris 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA01E003/document.
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La thèse analyse la question de la stabilité du système financier international dans son ensemble et plus précisément comment améliorer sa résilience. Chaque chapitre se focalise sur un type d'acteur dans ce système complexe, à savoir les banques, les organismes de supervision et les régulateurs internationaux. Le premier chapitre introduit de nouvelles techniques d'optimisation pour accélérer le calcul de mesure de risque dans les banques et les institutions financières. Il propose également une étude théorique pour valider les algorithmes d'optimisation proposés. Le second vise à quantifier l'externalité négative générée par les activités d'une banque ou d'une d'institution financière. Finalement, le dernier chapitre concerne la coopération entre régulateurs nationaux en présence de coûts de coordination en proposant une analyse qui s'appuie sur la théorie des jeuxWe first investigate the computational complexity for estimating quantile based risk measures, such as the widespread Value at Risk for banks and Solvency II capital requirements for insurance companies, via nested Monte Carlo simulations. The estimator is a conditional expectation type estimate where two stage simulations are required to evaluate the risk measure: an outer simulation is used to generate risk factor scenarios that govern price movements and an inner simulation is used to evaluate the future portfolio value based on each of those scenarios. The second essay considers the financial stability from a macro perspective. Measuring negative externalities of banks is a major challenge for financial regulators. We propose a new risk management approach to enhance the financial stability and to increase the fairness of financial transactions. The basic idea is that a bank should assume as much risk as it creates. Any imbalance in the tails of the distribution of profit and losses is a sign of the bank's failure to internalize its externalities or the social costs associated with its activities. The aim of the third essay is to find a theoretical justification toward the mutual benefits for members of a bonking union in the context of a strategic interaction model. We use a unique contagion dynamic that marries the rich literature of game theory, contagion in pandemic crisis and the study of collaboration between regulators. The model is focused toward regulating asset classes, not individual banks. This special design addresses moral hazard issues that could result from government intervention in the case of crisis
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Ciflikli, Burak. "Entity Motion Management In Complex Simulation Environments Using Image Generators." Master's thesis, METU, 2008. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12610010/index.pdf.
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Image generator host is the interface of the host computer systemof a flight simulator to its image generator. Image generator host, updates positions of the entities by sending operational codes to the image generator. Positional data of the entities is pipelined by tactic interface of the simulator at host update rate. A network jitter, latency, packet loss or inadequate bandwidth may disturb the smoothness of this pipelined entity information packets. This study presents an algorithm for the host system of a flight simulator, intending to minimize model flickering in the image generator display output.
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Schoerner, Daniel (Daniel Richard). "Developing a process for supply chain risk management." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/50093.
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Thesis (M.B.A.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science; in conjunction with the Leaders for Manufacturing Program at MIT, 2009.Includes bibliographical references (p. 65).
In today's competitive markets, companies look for any advantage they can build over their competitors. A number of companies recognize that supply chain excellence is an opportunity to create such an advantage. A superior supply chain provides manufacturing flexibility, fast on-time delivery, and lower cost products than those of a lesser competitor. Risk management concepts are beginning to be applied to supply chains in ever-broadening scope. Companies reliant on their supply chains now seek innovative ways to manage risk to the supply chain and ensure its smooth operation. Implementing a risk management process for the supply chain can generate long term value for a company by improving continuity of supply and component quality. By identifying risks to the supply of necessary components and then assessing the risk of each component's availability and quality, it is possible to gain a comprehensive understanding of the risk to the supply chain for a given product or product family. This understanding of the risk to the supply chain allows managers to make decisions based on the expected costs and assists them in determining the appropriate risk mitigation activities.
by Daniel Schoerner.
S.M.
M.B.A.
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Manghat, Jaidev. "Simulation of power distribution management system using OMACS metamodel." Manhattan, Kan. : Kansas State University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/944.
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Agarwal, Ravikant. "A flexible model for multi-agent based simulation of software development process." Auburn, Ala., 2007. http://repo.lib.auburn.edu/2007%20Fall%20Dissertations/Agarwal_Ravikant_38.pdf.
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Li, C. "Risk modelling and simulation of chemical supply chains using a system dynamics approach." Thesis, Liverpool John Moores University, 2016. http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/4254/.
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A chemical supply chain (CSC) presents a network that integrates suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and customers into one system. The hazards arising from the internal system and the surrounding environment may cause disturbances to material, information and financial flows. Therefore, supply chain members have to implement a variety of methods to prepare for, respond to and recover from potential damages caused by different kinds of hazards. A large number of studies have been devoted to extending the current knowledge and enhancing the implementation of chemical supply chain risk management (CSCRM), to improve both safety and reliability of the CSCRM systems. However, the majority of existing risk management methods fail to address the complex interactions and dynamic feedback effects in the systems, which could significantly affect the risk management outcomes. In order to bridge the gaps, a new CSCRM method based on System Dynamics (SD) is proposed to accommodate the need to describe the connections between risks and their associated changes of system behaviour. The novelty of this method lies not only on providing a valid description of a real system, but also on addressing the interactions of the hazardous events and managerial activities in the systems. In doing so, the risk effects are quantified and assessed in different supply chain levels. Based upon the flexibility of SD modelling processes, the model developer can modify the developed model throughout the model life cycle. Instead of directly assessing different risks and providing arbitrary decisions, the obtained numerical results can offer supportive information for assessing potential risk reduction measures and continuously improving the CSC system performance. To demonstrate the applicability of the newly proposed method, a reputed specialty chemical transportation service provider in China is used and analysed through modelling and simulating the chemical supply chain transportation (CSCT) operations in various scenarios. It offers policy makers and operators insights into the risk-affected CSC operations and CSCRM decision-making processes, thus helping them develop rational risk reduction decisions in a dynamic environment.