Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Risk identification and assessment'

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CAPES, CNPQ
One recurrent issue in software development is the effective creation of testcases from requirements. Several techniques and methods are applied to minimize the risks associated with test cases building, aiming to meet the requirements specified correctly. Risks identification for requirements assessment is essential to tests cases generation. However, test engineers still face difficulties to apply it in practice due to the lack of solid knowledge about Risk Management activities and tool support for such activities. This work proposes a technique that helps test engineers in risk identification from requirements for software testing. From studies that used the similarity concept to compare software projects in order to reuse previously identified risks, the developed technique uses the same assertion applied to requirements. Within this context, this work aims to: (i) to define a technique based on analogies by categorizing requirements, thus being able to identify risks through a database of similar requirements, and (ii) to reuse risks previously identified at requirements for the evaluation of new requirements.

A challenging yet crucial component of emergency planning is to identify relevant hazards and assess their risk level. Within the Province of Ontario, Canada, governmental emergency management stakeholders are required to use the Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (HIRA) process, developed by the Province, to meet legislative compliance. The HIRA process is based on the use of risk matrices and hence faces many of the inherent challenges of this method, potentially resulting in a poor risk assessment process with a low quality outcome. The aim of this thesis is to analyze Ontario’s Provincial HIRA process to identify weaknesses, strengths, and gaps, in order to increase understanding for potential issues related to this type of hazard identification and risk assessment process within emergency preparedness. The Provincial HIRA process will be analyzed, as it is implemented in the Regional Municipality of York, including the Public Health Unit, by comparing the process to six points identified in the literature as potential challenges with the ability to compromise the quality of a risk assessment process. The main focus is on the use of risk matrices although some aspects more generally related to risk assessments have been included. Overall the Provincial HIRA has several weaknesses and gaps. It is evident that the process demonstrates many of the issues that impair the quality of risk assessments supported by the use of risk matrices such as ambiguous input and out-puts, errors, poor resolution and sub-optimal resource allocation. Additionally, a significant amount of resources and access to hazard subject matter expertise would be required to execute the HIRA in accordance with the guideline. Such resources are not necessarily available to the target audience. All these aspects contribute to a risk assessment process that struggles to meet one of its main objectives, to provide the user with a quantitative risk ranking with the capacity to distinguish between risk levels of different hazards. Subsequently the outcome may not accurately support the emergency planning or the decision making process related to resource allocation.
Identifiering av lokalt relevanta faror och bedömning av deras risknivåer är en kritisk och komplex del av arbetsområdet beredskap för nödsituationer (eng. emergency preparedness). Myndigheter som bedriver verksamhet inom detta område i provinsen Ontario, Kanada  är enligt lag skyldiga att genomföra en ”Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment” (HIRA) process, utvecklad av provinsen. HIRA-metoden är baserad på användandet av risk matriser och står således inför många av denna metods inneboende utmaningar vilket kan resultera i svag riskbedömningsprocess med tvivelaktigt resultat. Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera Ontarios HIRA-process för att identifiera potentialla svagheter, styrkor och luckor i processen och således generera insikt i potentiella utmaningar relaterat till denna typ av riskbedömningsprocess inom ”emergency preparedness”.  HIRA-processen, så som den implementerats i York Region och inom dess folkhälsomyndighet, kommer att analyseras baserat på sex punkter identifierade inom litteraturen som aspekter med förmåga att påverka kvalitén på riskdömningsresultatet. Sammanfattningsvis ses att HIRA-processen innefattar många av de svagheter som diskuteras i litteraturen rörande riskmatriser som till exempel fel, tvetydig in- och utdata, dålig upplösning och suboptimal resursfördelning vilket potentiellt medför en riskbedömningsprocess av låg kvalité. För att genomföra HIRA-processen så som metoden är designad behöver användaren investera en betydande mängd resurser samt helst tillgå expertis inom riskbedömning relaterat till de olika farorna som skall bedömas, vilket inte alltid finns tillgängligt inom de organisationen som genomför en HIRA. Dessa aspekter sammantaget bidrar till en process som inte nödvändigtvis når fram till ett av sina primära mål; att skapa en kvantitativ rangordning av risker med förmåga att särskilja olika farors risknivå. Till följd finns en risk att resultatet av riskbedömning inte stödjer den operativa planeringen eller processen för beslutsfattande relaterad till resursfördelning.

Bibliography: leaves 124-136. This thesis gives an overview of factors used in weed risk assessments and explores the disparity between the measured high accuracy rate of the weed risk assessment system (WRA) as implemented in Australia and the pessimistic assessments of some workers about the possibility of predicting the weed potential of plant species imported in the future. The accuracy of the WRA may not be as high as previously thought, and it varies with weed definition and taxonomic groups. Cluster analysis and comparative analysis by independent contrasts were employed to determine the value of individual biological and ecological questions on the WRA questionnaire. Results showed that some WRA questions could be deleted from the questionnaire and the scores for others weighted differently. The WRA is not a reliable predictor of weeds when it is considered in the context of the base-rate probability of an introduced plant becoming weedy in Australia. As a result a far greater number on non-weeds will be placed on the prohibited imported list than was initially expected.

The aim of this exploratory study was to determine whether there was any significance to the proposition that the ability of individuals to assess entrepreneurial risks differed between entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs, with a particular focus on the risk identification and risk prioritisation abilities.A survey strategy was followed which made use of a case study exercise to ascertain what risks the sample groups of entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs identified. Demographics and other risk variables, such as risk propensity and risk perception, were also excluded to provide context and eliminate certain alternative explanations.No significant differences were found between entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs with respect the risks that they identified in the case study exercise. Entrepreneurs perceived the case study as more favourable and had a higher risk propensity. Entrepreneurs also found the case study exercise more difficult than non-entrepreneurs.
Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012.
Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)
unrestricted

Assessment of risk has been a key element in efforts to identify factors associated with disease, to assess potential targets of therapy and enhance disease prevention and treatment. Considerable work has been done to develop methods to identify markers, construct risk prediction models and evaluate such models. This dissertation aims to develop robust approaches for these tasks. In Chapter 1, we present a robust, flexible yet powerful approach to identify genetic variants that are associated with disease risk in genome-wide association studies when some subjects are related. In Chapter 2, we focus on identifying important genes predictive of survival outcome when the number of covariates greatly exceeds the number of observations via a nonparametric transformation model. We propose a rank-based estimator that poses minimal assumptions and develop an efficient

This research addresses the issue of information security risk assessment (ISRA) on cloud solutions implemented for large companies. Four companies were studied, of which three used cloud services and conducted ISRA, while one provided cloud services and consultancy to customers on ISRA. Data were gathered qualitatively to (1) analyze the cloud using companies’ practices and (2) to identify regularities observed by the cloud providing company. The COAT-hanger model, which focuses on theorizing the practices, was used to study the practices. The results showed that the companies aimed to follow the guidelines, in the form of frameworks or their own experience, to conduct ISRA; furthermore, the frameworks were altered to fit the companies’ needs. The results further indicated that one of the main concerns with the cloud ISRA was the absence of a culture that integrates risk management. In addition, the companies’ boards lacked interest in and/or awareness of risks associated with the cloud solutions. Finally, the finding also stressed the importance of a good understanding and a well written legal contract between the cloud providers and the companies utilizing the cloud services.

Research questions 1. What kind of risks in the supply side of HUAWEI supply chain can be identified? 2. How can supply side risks of HUAWEI supply chain be assessed? 3. How can supply side risks of HUAWEI supply chain be mitigated? Purpose This paper describes supply side risks in HUAWEI in China, the types of risks identified, provides guidelines for assessment of these risks and suggestions for mitigation. Methodology In order to answer above research questions empirical data have been collected through observations, interviews at with logistics managers of HUAWEI in China, and from the official documents, annual reports and authentic web pages of the HUAWEI. Theoretical framework has been built through scientific articles, peer reviewed journals, authentic web based documents, and textbooks. The information is then assessed and analyzed, which result in conclusion and recommendations for the company. Conclusion There can be four major risks identified on the supply side. Manufacturing risk, logistics risk, information risk and inventory risk. The manufacturing risk include risks related to production, skill, and quality. The logistics risk further include delivery risk, lead time risk, and transportation risk. Production risk and skill risk are critical and they can be avoided by enhancing risk awareness, evaluating production feasibility, strengthen staff training, investing in high skills, strengthening R&D, and analysis of the external environment. The quality and inbound delivery risks can be reduced through supplier inspection and establishing good supplier relations. Lead time risk and inventory risk can be reduced by vendor based managed inventory system and mass customization. Meanwhile, transportation risk can adopt risk transfer strategy. The information risk can be reduced by increasing information sharing levels and adopting modern communication technologies.

The Assessment of Risk and Manageability in Intellectually Disabled IndividuaLs who Offend (ARMIDILO) was developed to address the need for assessment tests specifically designed for intellectually disabled (ID) individuals who offend. This is the first study focusing on the application of the ARMIDILO by using comparative current risk assessment tests to evaluate the ARMIDILO as an effective risk assessment tool. In this research 16 ID people who have recorded sexual and or violent behaviour offences were evaluated using the Violent Offender Risk Assessment Scale (VORAS), Static-99 and ARMIDILO risk assessment tests. The ARMIDILO, VORAS and Static-99 assessments were completed using individual history files kept within the Regional Forensic Psychiatric Service. The VORAS and Static-99 were adapted to incorporate reported, but not charged or otherwise litigated offences and convictions. The adapted tests were then compared against the ARMIDILO as a risk assessment tool. Analysis of the ARMIDILO showed strong validity in assessing ID people who offend. The main strength of the ARMIDILO is in identifying the risk needs of the ID person who offends and may be an effective management test when used in assessing individual needs and program implementation. Risk assessment through the ARMIDILO showed similar results to Static-99 but compared only moderately with the VORAS in measuring the risk of re-offending. Future research with a larger population may further validate the reliability of the ARMIDILO as an assessment tool. Adaptation of the current score sheet for use by non-clinical and correctional staff may prove cost effective.

Many construction projects suffer from mismanagement despite continuous improvement in the field of project risk management. With the construction boom in the Middle East, and especially the Gulf region, construction projects suffer from a high failure rate. The lack of the implementation of standard risk management methods in the construction industry of the Gulf region leads to construction projects that suffer from poor performance, delays, disputes and claims. In order to design a standard risk management model, there is a need for an in-depth study of the construction environment to lay down the foundation for designing a Standard Construction Risk Management Model in the future. This study aims to identify and assess risk factors during the construction phase of construction projects in the Gulf region focusing on two countries of the Gulf region – the State of Kuwait and Kingdom of Bahrain. The risk factors (RF) were identified and assessed and responsiblty shares were allocated to construction parties: clients, consultants and contractors. The research strategy was a Sequential mixed-method. It was adopted by means of interview surveys followed by a questionnaire. The study started with a qualitative approach in which eleven practitioners were interviewed to evaluate and validate a questionnaire. This was followed by questionnaires distributed to a representative sample of 140 consultants, 128 contractors and 139 clients in the State of Kuwait, in addition to 71 consultants, 99 contractors and 78 clients in the Kingdom of Bahrain, to assess the negative impact of the risk factors during the construction phase on the completion of construction projects. Parametric tests were used to analyse the collected data. Including, the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test, the independent-samples t-test, and Pearson correlation coefficient (r) test. The study revealed a difference in perception of the risk factors negative impact on project completion between Kuwait and Bahrain, Bahrain perceives highest degree of impact on projects. On the categories level, both countries agreed on the Finance category as the main factor threatening project completion, and the External category as having the least impact. In Kuwait, almost all parties agreed on the negative impact of all categories on project completion except contractors who have different perception on management category. Furthermore, clients and consultants held different perceptions on the impact of design category. Bahrain results reveal significant differences in perceptions on the impact of categories between clients and the other parties, however there are slight differences between consultants and contractors in all categories. The limitations of the study include only large contractors and consultants in Kuwait and Bahrain were included in the study. The study was limited to the construction phase of construction projects and only six categories of risk factors were included in the study and This research was based on practitioners and participants opinions rather than actual occurrences on projects.

At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain unidentified (false negatives). ‘Accurate identification’ in this context means that all vulnerabilities identified do indeed pose a risk of a security breach for the organisation. An experiment performed with German IT security professionals in 2011 confirmed that vulnerability identification errors do occur in practice. In particular, false positive vulnerabilities were identified by participants. In information security (IS) risk assessments, security experts analyze the organisation’s assets in order to identify vulnerabilities. Methods such as brainstorming, checklists, scenario-analysis, impact-analysis, and cause-analysis (ISO, 2009b) are used to identify vulnerabilities. These methods use uncertain input data for vulnerability identification, because the probabilities, effects and losses of vulnerabilities cannot be determined exactly (Fenz and Ekelhart, 2011). Furthermore, business security needs are not considered properly; the security checklists and standards used to identify vulnerabilities do not consider company-specific security requirements (Siponen and Willison, 2009). In addition, the intentional behaviour of an attacker when exploiting vulnerabilities for malicious purposes further increases the uncertainty, because predicting human behaviour is not just about existing vulnerabilities and their consequences (Pieters and Consoli, 2009), rather than preparing for future attacks. As a result, current approaches determine risks and vulnerabilities under a high degree of uncertainty, which can lead to errors. This thesis proposes an approach to resolve vulnerability identification errors using security requirements and business process models. Security requirements represent the business security needs and determine whether any given vulnerability is a security risk for the business. Information assets’ security requirements are evaluated in the context of the business process model, in order to determine whether security functions are implemented and operating correctly. Systems, personnel and physical parts of business processes, as well as IT processes, are considered in the security requirement evaluation, and this approach is validated in three steps. Firstly, the systematic procedure is compared to two best-practice approaches. Secondly, the risk result accuracy is compared to a best-practice risk-assessment approach, as applied to several real-world examples within an insurance company. Thirdly, the capability to determine risk more accurately by using business processes and security requirements is tested in a quasi-experiment, using security professionals. This thesis demonstrates that risk assessment methods can benefit from explicit evaluation of security requirements in the business context during risk identification, in order to resolve vulnerability identification errors and to provide a criterion for security.

Background: In today’s more challenging business environment companies operating in a global market are faced by uncountable numbers of risks. The foundation of this report is based on the scenario of risks within one of the most important industries for the Swedish economy, namely the Forest, Paper and Packaging (FPP)industry. Sweden is one of the most forested countries in Europe and despite being a small country Sweden alone stands for 7 percent of the world’s total FPP production. However, it has been argued that the FPP industry might be in the midst of change where several articles and reports have commented on the upcoming challenges within the industry.

Problem discussion & Purpose: Globalization, shifting economical paradigm, a rising interest for sustainability, increased raw material prices and tougher market conditions have in combination lead to a change in today’s view of how to handle risks. FPP companies have to deal with countless number of issues facing business today and the question of how to manage risks across organizations are becoming increasingly important. The purpose of this thesis is to identify risks faced by the Swedish FPP industry and thereafter assess the most crucial risks impact and likelihood of occurrence and how they are linked to the dilemma of holding forestland or not.

Method: This study has its origin in interprevitism along with the ontological assumptions of constuctionism. An abductive research approach has been applied that has features from both deduction and induction. The study has applied the three research strategies; descriptive, explanatory and exploratory study in order to produce a true representation, describe relationships and in the same time seek new insight into the researched phenomena. A qualitative research strategy was applied where several semi-structured interviews were carried out, with respondents selected through a purposive sample of the Swedish FPP industry. Thereafter complementary material was sent out in form of a self-administrative questionnaire regarding the identified risks and their significance.

Theoretical framework: Consist of general theories concerning macro environment and risk analysis theories for understanding industries along with previous reports concerning the FPP industry. In order to determent the nature and scale of the risk the Risk radar model will be applied along with an assessment of impact and likelihood of occurrence.

Conclusion: The Swedish FPP industry today faces the following risks; Globalization & Shift of Capital to the Emerging Markets, Overcapacity, Foreign Exchange Impact & Currency Risks, Export & Import Taxes, Raw Material, Energy & Transportation Costs, Sustainability & Increased Environmental Awareness and Climate Change & Unforeseen Events. Out of these risks the most crucial where proven to be Raw Material and Energy & Transportation Costs hence there high impact and likelihood of occurrence. Given the pros and cons of holding forestland in relation to the most crucial risks identified the ownership of forestland can be seen as a strategic way of educing the threat from these risks, turning them into opportunities.

Identification and qualitative comparison of sensitivity analysis methods that have been used across various disciplines, and that merit consideration for application to food safety risk assessment models are presented in this paper. Sensitivity analysis can help in identifying critical control points, prioritizing additional data collection or research, and verifying and validating a model. Ten sensitivity analysis methods, including four mathematical methods, five statistical methods and one graphical method, are identified. Application of these methods was also illustrated with the examples from various fields. These methods were compared on the basis of their applicability to different types of models, computational issues such as initial data requirement, time requirement, and complexity of their application, representation of the sensitivity, and the specific uses of these methods. No one method is clearly best for food safety risk models. In general, the use of two or more methods may be needed to increase confidence on the rank ordering of key inputs.To identify specific issues with respect to the application to a typical food safety risk model, the sensitivity analysis methods were applied to the risk assessment model of the public health impact of vibrio Parahaemolyticus (the Vp model). The Vp model was modified so that proper sensitivity analysis can be done on independent inputs. The results of the sensitivity analyses were interpreted and discussed in detail. The rank ordering of key inputs was reasonably similar for most of the methods. For example, five of the seven methods ranked water temperature, the number of oysters per meal, and a new input IUR in the top three. Time on water and an input IG were identified as the least important inputs by six methods.

Les villes sont les lieux de la plus grande concentration d'activités sociales et économiques. La logistique est l'une des plus importants éléments de la durabilité et de l'économie d’une la ville. Pour la logistique urbaine, il est nécessaire de prendre en compte les caractéristiques de la ville et les objectifs de toutes les parties prenantes (expéditeurs, destinataires, transporteurs, prestataires de services logistiques, résidents, gouvernement de la ville). Les plans de logistique urbaine durable pourraient avoir un impact significatif sur la qualité de la vie en milieu urbain. L'évaluation d'initiatives de logistique de ville durable (SCLI) telles que les centres de distribution urbains, la tarification de la congestion, le délai de livraison et les restrictions d'accès est un problème complexe, car plusieurs critères et contraintes subjectifs et objectifs doivent être pris en compte. Les administrations municipales investissent dans des initiatives de logistique urbaine durable telles que les centres de distribution urbains, la tarification de la congestion, le calendrier de livraison et les restrictions d'accès afin d'améliorer les conditions de transport de marchandises dans les villes et de réduire leurs impacts négatifs sur les citoyens et leur environnement. Cependant, il y a toujours des risques dynamiques associés à la sélection. L’analyse des risques des initiatives de logistique urbaine est une tâche complexe en raison de la multiplicité des facteurs de risque et de leurs dépendances. Bien qu'il n'y ait pas beaucoup d'études sur les risques liés à la logistique urbaine, aucune attention n'a été portée à l'analyse des risques liés à la logistique urbaine en prenant en compte les dépendances entre les facteurs de risque et leurs critères. Considérer les dépendances entre les facteurs de risque pourrait conduire à une analyse plus précise des risques et augmenter le taux de réussite de la sélection des initiatives de logistique urbaine. Méthodes: pour résoudre ce problème, nous proposons un outil avancé d'aide à la décision appelé «cartescognitives floues» (FCM), capable de gérer les risques associés à des systèmes aussi complexes. La FCM représente avec précision le comportement de systèmes complexes et peut prendre en compte les incertitudes, les informations imprécises, les interactions entre les facteurs de risque, la rareté de l'information et les opinions de plusieurs décideurs. En outre, il pourrait être appliqué à différents problèmes de prise de décision liés aux initiatives de logistique de ville durable (SCLI). Par conséquent, l'outil proposé aiderait les praticiens à gérer les risques liés à la logistique urbaine d'une manière plus efficace et proactive et offrirait de meilleures solutions d'atténuation des risques. Dans les études précédentes, les méthodes de décision multicritères étaient principalement utilisées pour l'évaluation, la comparaison et la sélection d'initiatives logistiques de villes en fonction des effets obtenus ou prévus résultant de leur introduction dans divers environnements urbains. Afin d'évaluer l'adéquation des solutions conceptuelles aux exigences des différentes parties prenantes et conformément aux attributs spécifiques de l'environnement urbain, il convient de définir des solutions conceptuelles associant différentes initiatives de logistique urbaine en utilisant un processus artificiel; outils de renseignement, y compris la FCM.
Les villes sont les lieux de la plus grande concentration d'activités sociales et économiques. La logistique est l'une des plus importants éléments de la durabilité et de l'économie d’une la ville. Pour la logistique urbaine, il est nécessaire de prendre en compte les caractéristiques de la ville et les objectifs de toutes les parties prenantes (expéditeurs, destinataires, transporteurs, prestataires de services logistiques, résidents, gouvernement de la ville). Les plans de logistique urbaine durable pourraient avoir un impact significatif sur la qualité de la vie en milieu urbain. L'évaluation d'initiatives de logistique de ville durable (SCLI) telles que les centres de distribution urbains, la tarification de la congestion, le délai de livraison et les restrictions d'accès est un problème complexe, car plusieurs critères et contraintes subjectifs et objectifs doivent être pris en compte. Les administrations municipales investissent dans des initiatives de logistique urbaine durable telles que les centres de distribution urbains, la tarification de la congestion, le calendrier de livraison et les restrictions d'accès afin d'améliorer les conditions de transport de marchandises dans les villes et de réduire leurs impacts négatifs sur les citoyens et leur environnement. Cependant, il y a toujours des risques dynamiques associés à la sélection. L’analyse des risques des initiatives de logistique urbaine est une tâche complexe en raison de la multiplicité des facteurs de risque et de leurs dépendances. Bien qu'il n'y ait pas beaucoup d'études sur les risques liés à la logistique urbaine, aucune attention n'a été portée à l'analyse des risques liés à la logistique urbaine en prenant en compte les dépendances entre les facteurs de risque et leurs critères. Considérer les dépendances entre les facteurs de risque pourrait conduire à une analyse plus précise des risques et augmenter le taux de réussite de la sélection des initiatives de logistique urbaine. Méthodes: pour résoudre ce problème, nous proposons un outil avancé d'aide à la décision appelé «cartescognitives floues» (FCM), capable de gérer les risques associés à des systèmes aussi complexes. La FCM représente avec précision le comportement de systèmes complexes et peut prendre en compte les incertitudes, les informations imprécises, les interactions entre les facteurs de risque, la rareté de l'information et les opinions de plusieurs décideurs. En outre, il pourrait être appliqué à différents problèmes de prise de décision liés aux initiatives de logistique de ville durable (SCLI). Par conséquent, l'outil proposé aiderait les praticiens à gérer les risques liés à la logistique urbaine d'une manière plus efficace et proactive et offrirait de meilleures solutions d'atténuation des risques. Dans les études précédentes, les méthodes de décision multicritères étaient principalement utilisées pour l'évaluation, la comparaison et la sélection d'initiatives logistiques de villes en fonction des effets obtenus ou prévus résultant de leur introduction dans divers environnements urbains. Afin d'évaluer l'adéquation des solutions conceptuelles aux exigences des différentes parties prenantes et conformément aux attributs spécifiques de l'environnement urbain, il convient de définir des solutions conceptuelles associant différentes initiatives de logistique urbaine en utilisant un processus artificiel; outils de renseignement, y compris la FCM.
The cities are the places of the largest concentration of social activities and economic. Logistics is one of the most important for the sustainability and the economy of the city. Inselecting the city logistics concept, it is necessary to consider the characteristics of the city and the goals of all the stakeholders (shippers, receivers, carriers, logistics service providers, residents, city government). Sustainable city logistics (SCL) plans could significantly affect the quality of life in the urban environment. Evaluating sustainable city logistics initiatives (SCLI) such as urban distribution centres, congestion pricing, delivery timing and access restrictions is a complex problem since several subjective and objective criteria and constraints should be considered. Municipal administrations are investing in sustainable city logistics initiatives (SCLI) such as urban distribution centres, congestion pricing, delivery timing and access restrictions in order to improve the condition of goods transport in cities and reduce their negative impacts on citizens and their environment. However, there is always some dynamic risks associated that should be selected. Risk analysis of sustainable city logistics initiatives is a complex task due to consisting of many risk factors with dependencies among them. Although there are no lots of studies on sustainable city logistics risks, no attention has been paid to the risk analysis of sustainable city logistics by considering the dependencies among risk factors and their criteria. Considering the dependencies among risk factors could lead to more precise risks analysis and increase the success rate of selecting sustainable city logistics initiatives. Methods: To address this, we are proposing an advanced decision support tool called "Fuzzy Cognitive Maps" (FCM) which can deal with risks of such complicated systems. FCM represents the behaviour of complex systems accurately and is able to consider uncertainties, imprecise information, the interactions between risk factors, information scarcity, and several decision maker's opinions. In addition, it could be applied to different decision makings problems related to sustainable city logistics initiatives (SCLI). Therefore, the proposed tool would help practitioners to manage sustainable city logistics risks in a more effective and proactive way and offer better risk mitigation solutions. In previous studies, multi-criteriadecision-making methods are mainly used for the evaluation, comparison and selection of individual sustainable city logistics initiatives in relation to the achieved or planned effects resulting from their introduction in various urban environments. In order to assess the suitability of the conceptual solutions to the requirements of different stakeholders, and in accordance with the specific attributes of the urban environment, there is the definition of conceptual solutions that combine different sustainable city logistics initiatives by using an artificial; intelligence tools including FCM.
The cities are the places of the largest concentration of social activities and economic. Logistics is one of the most important for the sustainability and the economy of the city. Inselecting the city logistics concept, it is necessary to consider the characteristics of the city and the goals of all the stakeholders (shippers, receivers, carriers, logistics service providers, residents, city government). Sustainable city logistics (SCL) plans could significantly affect the quality of life in the urban environment. Evaluating sustainable city logistics initiatives (SCLI) such as urban distribution centres, congestion pricing, delivery timing and access restrictions is a complex problem since several subjective and objective criteria and constraints should be considered. Municipal administrations are investing in sustainable city logistics initiatives (SCLI) such as urban distribution centres, congestion pricing, delivery timing and access restrictions in order to improve the condition of goods transport in cities and reduce their negative impacts on citizens and their environment. However, there is always some dynamic risks associated that should be selected. Risk analysis of sustainable city logistics initiatives is a complex task due to consisting of many risk factors with dependencies among them. Although there are no lots of studies on sustainable city logistics risks, no attention has been paid to the risk analysis of sustainable city logistics by considering the dependencies among risk factors and their criteria. Considering the dependencies among risk factors could lead to more precise risks analysis and increase the success rate of selecting sustainable city logistics initiatives. Methods: To address this, we are proposing an advanced decision support tool called "Fuzzy Cognitive Maps" (FCM) which can deal with risks of such complicated systems. FCM represents the behaviour of complex systems accurately and is able to consider uncertainties, imprecise information, the interactions between risk factors, information scarcity, and several decision maker's opinions. In addition, it could be applied to different decision makings problems related to sustainable city logistics initiatives (SCLI). Therefore, the proposed tool would help practitioners to manage sustainable city logistics risks in a more effective and proactive way and offer better risk mitigation solutions. In previous studies, multi-criteriadecision-making methods are mainly used for the evaluation, comparison and selection of individual sustainable city logistics initiatives in relation to the achieved or planned effects resulting from their introduction in various urban environments. In order to assess the suitability of the conceptual solutions to the requirements of different stakeholders, and in accordance with the specific attributes of the urban environment, there is the definition of conceptual solutions that combine different sustainable city logistics initiatives by using an artificial; intelligence tools including FCM.

Risk based audit (RBA) approaches represent a major trend in current audit methodology. The approach is based on risk analysis used to identify business strategy risk. The RBA has created a new set of research issues that need investigation. In particular, this approach has important implications for risk identification and risk assessment. The success of the RBA approach is contingent on understanding what factors improve or interfere with the accuracy of these risk judgments. I examine how budget constraints and decision aid use affect risk identification and risk assessment. Unlike previous budget pressure studies, I cast budget constraints as a positive influence on auditors. I expect more stringent budget constraints to be motivating to the auditor as they provide a goal for the auditor to achieve. I also expect budget constraints to induce feelings of pressure leading to the use of time-pressure adaptation strategies. When auditors have use of a decision aid, they take advantage of these motivational goals and/or use beneficial adaptive strategies. Overall, I find that auditor participants tend to be more accurate when identifying financial statement risks compared to business risks. Budget constraints have no effect on risk identification for financial or business risks; they also have no effect on financial risk assessments. On the other hand, business risk assessments are improved by implementing more stringent budget constraints, but only when a decision aid is also provided. Budget constraints can affect performance through a goal theory route or a time-pressure adaptation route. I investigate the paths through which budget constraints improve business risk assessments under decision aid use. I find that budget constraints directly affect performance, supporting a goal theory route. However, I do not find that budget constraints are mediated by perceived budget pressure as expected. Auditors appear to use a positive adaptive strategy to respond to perceived budget pressure, however perceived budget pressure is not induced by providing a more stringent budget.

UK health and safety legislation aims to protect employees from injury at work; professional footballers as employees are therefore covered by this legislation. A risk assessment approach to health and safety issues, as required by the Management of Health and Safety at Work Regulations 1992, has been undertaken to establish the epidemiological and aetiological factors related to injuries in professional football and to identify management and training procedures to reduce the incidence and severity of injuries. Issues of injury frequency and causation during the period 1994 to 1997 were addressed through two routes. First, during the 1994 World Cup Finals, 1996 European Championships, and 1994 to 1997 English league seasons via match analysis. Second, player injuries at four professional football league clubs were recorded by the club physiotherapist. These results provided complementary evidence showing an overall injury rate of 8.5/1000 playing hours, injury rates during training and matches being 3.5/1000 and 27.7/1000 playing hours, respectively. Two thirds of the injuries occurred during competitive match play, the remainder during training, the highest incidences of match and training injuries taking place during the first month of the playing season (P