Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Risk Base Decision'
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Mello, Bernardo Brazão Rego. "Classificação de risco setorial com base nos métodos Weighted Influence Non-linear Gauge System e Analytic Hierarchy Process." reponame:Biblioteca Digital do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social, 2014. http://web.bndes.gov.br/bib/jspui/handle/1408/5341.
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Bibliografia: p. 46-48Dissertação (mestrado) - Faculdade de Economia e Finanças Ibmec, Rio de Janeiro, 2014.
Devido à crescente importância dos mercados financeiros nas últimas décadas, o risco de crédito tem se tornado um tema fundamental na tomada de decisões acerca de investimentos, taxas de financiamento, solvência corporativa, tendência e perspectivas etc. Os modelos de avaliação de risco de crédito, em geral, podem ser classificados em duas categorias: quantitativo e qualitativo. Modelos quantitativos buscam analisar informações de demonstrativos financeiros e seus indicadores, enquanto modelos qualitativos focam na análise de variáveis intangíveis que afetam os negócios globais. Estes modelos normalmente seguem uma estrutura "top-down" de análise setorial, competitividade e comparação de pares e gestão. O objetivo desta dissertação é apresentar um modelo de classificação de risco setorial com base em métodos de análise multicritério que possam mensurar a importância das variáveis que afetam os setores da economia brasileira, bem como a influência entre estas. O modelo é baseado, principalmente, no método Weighted Influence Non-Linear Gauge System. Acerca dos julgamentos sobre as variáveis, o modelo baseia-se na utilização do método Analytic Hierarchy Process. O resultado do modelo é apresentado através de níveis de risco, aplicado a quatorze setores da economia brasileira. A dissertação se encerra com uma discussão sobre os resultados, bem como com um esboço do direcionamento para futuras pesquisas.
Due to the increasing importance of the financial market over the past decades, credit risk has become a paramount issue in investment, loan spreads, corporate solvency, trends and prospetcs, etc. Credit risk evaluation models may be classified in two broad categories: quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative models seek to analyze information from financial statement and indexes, while qualitative models focus on the analysis of intangible variables that affect global business. These models typically follow a top-down approach by analyzing the industry risk, competitiveness and peer comparison and management. The aim of this thesis is to present an industry risk assessment model based on multicriteria analysis methods that can measure the strengh of variables that affect the industries of Brazilian economy, as well as the influence between them. The model is based primarily on the Weighted Influence Non-Linear Gauge System method. Concerning human judgements about the variables, the model is founded on the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. The result from the model is presented through risk levels, applied to fourteen industries in the Brazilian economy. The thesis closes with a discussion of results, as well as with an outline to future research directions.
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Hansen, Richard L. "Risk-based fire research decision methodology." Link to electronic version, 1999. http://www.wpi.edu/Pubs/ETD/Available/etd-051399-154048/unrestricted/thesis.pdf.
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St, Onge Jennifer Rose. "Dopaminergic modulation of risk-based decision making." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/1313.
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Psychopharmacological studies have implicated the mesolimbic dopamine (DA) system in the mediation of cost/benefit evaluations about effort-related costs associated with larger rewards. However, the role of DA in risk-based decision making remains relatively unexplored. The present study investigated how systemic manipulations of DA transmission affect risky choice assessed with a probabilistic discounting task. Over discrete trials, rats between two levers; a press on the “small/certain” lever always delivered one reward pellet, whereas a press on the other, “large/risky” lever delivered four pellets, but the probability of receiving reward decreased across the four trial blocks (100%, 50%, 25%, 12.5%). In separate groups of well-trained rats we assessed the effects of the DA releaser amphetamine, as well as receptor selective agonists and antagonists. Amphetamine consistently increased preference for the large/risky lever; an effect that was blocked or attenuated by co-administration of either D₁ (SCH23390) or D₂ (eticlopride) receptors antagonists. Blockade of either of these receptors alone induced risk aversion. Conversely, stimulation of D₁ (SKF81297) or D₂ (bromocriptine) receptors also increased risky choice. In contrast, activation of D₃ receptors with PD128,907 induced risk aversion. Likewise, D₃ antagonism with nafadotride potentiated the amphetamine-induced increase in risky choice. Blockade or stimulation of D₄ receptors did not reliably alter patterns of choice. These findings indicate that DA plays a critical role in mediating risk-based decision making, where increased activation of D₁ and D₂ receptors biases choice towards larger, probabilistic rewards, whereas D₃ receptors appear to exert opposing effects on this form of decision making.
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Samson, Sundeep. "Performance based decisions under uncertainty and risk." Connect to this title online, 2008. http://etd.lib.clemson.edu/documents/1219855032/.
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Abdel, Moteleb Moustafa. "Risk Based Decision Making Tools for Sewer Infrastructure Management." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1282051778.
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Diaz, Michelle Chandler. "Risk identification and assessment in a risk based audit environment: the effects of budget constraints and decision aid use." Diss., Texas A&M University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/4363.
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Risk based audit (RBA) approaches represent a major trend in current audit methodology. The approach is based on risk analysis used to identify business strategy risk. The RBA has created a new set of research issues that need investigation. In particular, this approach has important implications for risk identification and risk assessment. The success of the RBA approach is contingent on understanding what factors improve or interfere with the accuracy of these risk judgments. I examine how budget constraints and decision aid use affect risk identification and risk assessment. Unlike previous budget pressure studies, I cast budget constraints as a positive influence on auditors. I expect more stringent budget constraints to be motivating to the auditor as they provide a goal for the auditor to achieve. I also expect budget constraints to induce feelings of pressure leading to the use of time-pressure adaptation strategies. When auditors have use of a decision aid, they take advantage of these motivational goals and/or use beneficial adaptive strategies. Overall, I find that auditor participants tend to be more accurate when identifying financial statement risks compared to business risks. Budget constraints have no effect on risk identification for financial or business risks; they also have no effect on financial risk assessments. On the other hand, business risk assessments are improved by implementing more stringent budget constraints, but only when a decision aid is also provided. Budget constraints can affect performance through a goal theory route or a time-pressure adaptation route. I investigate the paths through which budget constraints improve business risk assessments under decision aid use. I find that budget constraints directly affect performance, supporting a goal theory route. However, I do not find that budget constraints are mediated by perceived budget pressure as expected. Auditors appear to use a positive adaptive strategy to respond to perceived budget pressure, however perceived budget pressure is not induced by providing a more stringent budget.
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Lampi, Elina. "Individual preferences, choices, and risk perceptions - survey based evidence /." Göteborg : University of Gothenburg, 2008. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/235948582.html.
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Brown, Andrew B. "The Relationship of Expected Value-based Risky Decision Making Tasks to Attitudes Toward Various Kinds of Risks." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1304448647.
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Sheykhi, Reza. "Risk-Based Decision Making Support for Construction Corporate Resource Management." FIU Digital Commons, 2016. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3039.
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Competitive bidding typically challenges contractors to stay in business by reducing contingency and limiting profit margin, which imposes more prudent resource utilization and allocation decisions during both planning and construction phases of projects. Many of these decisions must be made considering uncertainties that affect resource production and construction performance through several factors such as weather, managerial practices, job-type, and market conditions, etc. Construction decision makers will therefore have varied approaches to deal with these uncertainties based on their risk utility or perception. This research presents the development of a model for investigating the impact of risk-based approaches on construction network outcomes. The current study contributes to development of a model that enables corporate managers to understand the impact of different resource utilization and sharing policies on the overall outcome of their project and to select among optimum planning solutions that satisfy their profit margin and capital limitations. This research also enables corporate decision makers to have more realistic estimates for the profitability of their company, and understand consequences of their decisions in short and long term. Findings of this research provide decision makers with different solutions for profitability of their corporation based on non-dominated optimal time-cost trade-offs, and also broader perspective on how overall time and budget limitations, as well as risk perceptions, can affect the decision-making process. The model is verified and the results are validated through acquiring data from actual large scale construction projects in South Florida.
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Jin, Nam-Hee. "A risk-based decision making tool for sustainable bridge management." Thesis, University of Surrey, 2007. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/747/.
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Roberts, Caroline. "Risk-based decision-making for the management of structural assets." Thesis, Cranfield University, 1999. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/4587.
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This thesis investigates the benefit of risk-based decision methods in engineering decisions. A thorough literature review identified the major issues and limitations in current methods. Consequently a more comprehensive model was developed to account for the complexities of real life decision-making. The enhancements introduced to the model include identifying and evaluating stakeholder influences, decision objectives, criteria and preferences between criteria and decision outcomes. Monitoring and controlling important parameters during implementation is also included to ensure objectives are met and risks controlled. Tools and techniques were identified to support decision-making within the new model. The research focuses on how available techniques can improve engineering decision-making. The model was applied to four case studies analysing real life, 'live' decision problems in bridge management and pipeline management. These confirmed the relevance and importance of the model enhancements. The practicality of the methods, their benefits and limitations were evaluated such that the proposed model was enhanced further. The enhanced model was shown to bring enhanced understanding to all four case studies and made the decisions more rational, thorough and auditable. The fifth case study reviewed how unsupported decisions are currently made within the sponsoring company. This involved a detailed desktop analysis of past projects and interviews with senior engineers and provided further evidence, which emphasised the value of using the decision model. General guidelines were developed based on the case study experiences to help the decision-maker identify the level of analysis required for different types of decision problems. These were defined as applicability matrices. The benefit of using a third party facilitator in each of the case studies was identified in terms of the roles of leader, liaison, disseminator, spokesman and disturbance handler. The balance between these five roles through the stages of the decision process was found to be important to ensure the facilitator does not dominate the decision.
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Komaki, Ghorbanmohammad. "PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND RISK DISPERSION BASED ON GEOMETRIC DISPERSION THEORY." Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1512232304419177.
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Hay, Wilson Lesly Isabel. "A spatial environmental risk assessment methodology for risk-based decision making at large, complex facilities /." Full text (PDF) from UMI/Dissertation Abstracts International, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/fullcit?p3004279.
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St, Onge Jennifer Rose. "The contribution of prefrontal-subcortical circuitry to risk-based decision making." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/39878.
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The ability to make decisions about different risks and rewards appears to recruit a neural circuit that includes the prefrontal cortex (PFC), the amygdala and the ventral striatum. The present thesis used a combination of behavioural, statistical, anatomical, and pharmacological techniques to elucidate the nature of risk-based decision making and the underlying neural circuits and neuromodulatory systems that contribute to this form of behaviour. Chapter 2 examined probabilistic discounting as a model of risk-based decision making. Statistical modeling revealed substantial individual variability in discounting of large, probabilistic rewards in well-trained animals which develops over the course of training. These discounting patterns were not influenced by luckiness in receiving reward early in training. Rather, patterns of risky vs. safe choices were influenced by both 1) recent luck in forced choice outcomes early in training and 2) outcomes of free choice trials in the animal’s recent reinforcement history. Chapter 3 revealed that the prelimbic region of the rat medial PFC makes a selective contribution to probabilistic discounting by keeping track of changes in reward probability in order to update value representations, whereas the insular and dorsal anterior cingulate subregions have no influence on risky choice. While it makes no contribution to choice outcome, the OFC region aids decision latency. Chapter 4 describes a series of asymmetrical disconnections which revealed that separate neural circuits mediate different aspects of risk-based decision making. Amygdala projections to the nucleus accumbens bias behaviour towards large, risky reward options whereas top-down projections from the medial PFC to the amygdala regulate this bias and promote adjustments in choice towards smaller, but potentially more valuable, options. Chapter 5 revealed that the contribution of medial PFC activity to probabilistic discounting is further modulated by a fine balance of D1 and D2 receptor activity. The general discussion in Chapter 6 integrates these findings into a broader perspective on the neural basis of decision making about probabilistic rewards, while focusing on the PFC and its interactions with other neural systems to guide decision making.
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Borgomeo, Edoardo. "Climate change and water resources : risk-based approaches for decision-making." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:a57a491f-96fb-4579-bd8a-ba7e86722dea.
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Water-resource managers are facing unprecedented challenges in accommodating the large uncertainties associated with climate change in their planning decisions. Integration of climate risk information is a pre-requisite for water resources planning under a changing climate, yet this information is often presented outside the decision-making context and in a way which is not relevant for the decision at hand. Furthermore, there is a lack of approaches that explicitly evaluate the impact of nonstationary climate change on decision-relevant metrics and variables. This thesis describes novel methods for incorporating uncertain information on climate change in water resources decision-making and estimating climate change-related risks in water resources systems. The main hypotheses of this thesis are that: (1) shifting away from planning approaches based on abstract supply-demand balance metrics towards risk-based approaches that quantify the frequency and severity of observable outcomes of concern to water users, such as water shortages, can help decision-makers establish preferences among actions and identify cost and climate risk reduction trade-offs (2) adopting risk-based planning methods allows water managers to characterize and account for different sources of uncertainty in the water planning process and to understand their impact on outcomes of value and decisions. To test these hypotheses, this thesis presents an analytic approach for (1) incorporating nonstationary climate change projections and other uncertain factors related to demand changes into water resources decision-making, (2) understanding trade-offs between benefits of climate risk-reduction and cost of climate change adaptation, and (3) characterizing water supply vulnerability to unprecedented drought conditions. The approach is applied to London's urban water supply system located in the Thames river basin, south-east of England. Results from this thesis demonstrate how a systematic characterization of uncertainties related to future hydro-climatic conditions can help decision-makers compare and choose between a range of possible water management options and decide upon the scale and timing of implementation that meet decision-makers' risk tolerability. Additionally, results show the benefits of combining climate information with vulnerability analysis to test decisions' robustness to unprecedented drought conditions. The application of the proposed methods to the London urban water supply system suggests that the risks of exceeding reliability targets in the future will increase if no further supply or demand side actions were to be taken. Results from the case study also show that changes in demand due to population growth could have greater impacts on water security than climate change and that small reductions in climate-related risk may come at significantly higher costs. It should be stressed that the results from the case study are based on a simplified representation of London's water supply system and that they should be further tested with the full system model employed by the water utility which implements more complex operational rules.
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Mt-Isa, Shahrul Hisham. "Improving evidence-based risk-benefit decision-making of medicines for children." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/9049.
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Risk-benefit assessment for decision-making based on evidence is a subject of continuing interest. However, randomised clinical trials evidence of risks and benefits are not always available especially for drugs used in children mainly due to ethical concern of children being subjects of clinical trials. This thesis appraises risk-benefit evidence from published trials in children for the case study; assesses the risk-benefit balance of drugs, proposes a framework for risk-benefit evidence synthesis, and demonstrates the extent of its contribution. The review shows trial designs lack safety planning leading to inconsistency safety reporting, and lack of efficacy evidence. The General Practice Research Database (GPRD) data was exploited to synthesise evidence of risks of cisapride and domperidone in children with gastro-oesophageal reflux as a case study. Efficacy data are only available through review evidence. Analysis of prescribing trends does not identify further risk-benefit issues but suggest the lack of evidence has led to inappropriate prescribing in children. Known adverse events are defined from the British National Formulary and quantified. Proportional reporting ratio technique is applied to other clinical events to generate potential safety signals. Signals are validated; and analysed for confirmatory association through covariates adjustment in regressions. The degree of associations between signals and drugs are assessed using Bradford Hill’s criteria for causation. Verified risks are known adverse events with 95% statistical significance, and signals in abdominal pain group and bronchitis and bronchiolitis group. The drugs’ risk-benefit profiles are illustrated using the two verified signals and an efficacy outcome. Sensitivity of input parameters is studied via simulations. The findings are used to hypothetically advise risk-benefit aspects of trial designs. The value of information from this study varies between stakeholders and the keys to communicating risks and benefits lie in presentation and understanding. The generalisability and scope of the proposed methods are discussed.
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Liu, Yi. "An explicit risk-based approach for large-levee safety decisions /." View abstract or full-text, 2009. http://library.ust.hk/cgi/db/thesis.pl?CIVL%202009%20LIU.
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Danish, Tawfig Yousef. "A knowledge-based decision support system for computer disaster prevention in IT centres." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/2005.
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In analysing the extent to which adequate research work may have been undertaken in the specific area of computer disaster prevention, it was found that little work had been done. In the real-life situation, it was also concluded that, in the vast majority of cases, no adequate disaster prevention controls were in use at IT installations. Guidance for the analysis and management of the risk associated with computer disasters, as a result, has also been inadequate and lacking in uniformity, specially in the areas of risk identification and risk entities interactions and relationships. This research has involved developing and delivering a methodology which would help IT risk managers in implementing effective computer disaster prevention controls. A knowledge based system (KBS) approach has been used to build a prototype system which provides full support in this important area of decision making, and to show how the representation of risks can be handled.
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Ackerman, Jr Paul J. "Condition Assessment, Indices, and Risk-based Decision-making for Public School Infrastructure Managment." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/50446.
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The Asbestos Hazard Emergency Response Act (AHERA) requires public schools to manage asbestos containing materials. Twenty five years after AHERA was enacted public schools continue to struggle with documenting and managing asbestos containing material assets. In addition, the manufacturing of lead based paint (LBP) was banned over thirty years ago yet public schools continue to have to manage LBP assets with no guidelines specific to public schools. When compared to current civil infrastructure asset management systems, AHERA and the HUD guidelines lack a rating system based on visual inspection data. The development of a condition index algorithm and risk of failure model would provide school planners an efficient management tool to predict the future condition of asbestos containing material and lead based paint assets. As a result, school planners would be able to prioritize maintenance, repair, and abatement projects based on the risk to the indoor air quality of their facilities and more efficiently utilize their limited resources to mitigate such risks. This paper presents initial work toward the development of a visual condition index algorithm and a risk of failure model to support prioritization of maintenance, repair, and abatement projects. The condition assessment categories provided by AHERA and HUD were adapted and incorporated in an evaluation form created to assist in rating the various stages of accessibility, deterioration, and detection of typical ACM and LBP building components. The evaluation form can be utilized by inspection and school personnel when reclassifying ACM and LBP components during semi-annual inspections of their facilities and also ensure the repeatability of the condition assessment and risk of failure methodologies. A risk of failure model was developed utilizing the FMEA process, specifically the calculation of a risk priority number (RPN). Three schools were selected for a field pilot study to develop the accessibility, deterioration, detection, and RPN algorithms and evaluate for repeatability. The algorithms will provide a quantitative and consistent means for documenting the condition and RPN of asbestos containing material and lead based paint assets and allow the condition of these assets to be monitored and reclassified over a period of time.Ph. D.
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Marques, Maria do Carmo Correia. "Risk-based decision support system for life cycle management of industrials plants." Doctoral thesis, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/7978.
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em
Engenharia Electrotécnica e de ComputadoresThe objective of this thesis is to contribute for a better understanding of the decision making process in industrial plants specifically in situations with impact in the long term performance of the plant. The way decisions are made, and especially the motivations that lead to the selection of a specific course of action, are sometimes unclear and lack on justification. This is particularly critical in cases where inappropriate decisions drive to an increase on the production costs. Industrial plants are part of these cases, specifically the ones that are still lacking enhanced monitoring technologies and associated decision support systems. Maintenance has been identified as one of the critical areas regarding impact on performance. This is due to the fact that maintenance costs still represent a considerable slice of the production costs. Thus, understanding the way maintenance procedures are executed, and more important, the methods used to decide when maintenance should be developed and how, have been a concern of decision makers in industrial plants. This thesis proposes a methodology to efficiently transform the existing information on the plant behaviour into knowledge that may be used to support the decision process in maintenance activities. The development of an appropriate knowledge model relating the core aspects of the process enables the extraction of new knowledge based on the past experience. This thesis proposes also a methodology to calculate the risk associated to each maintenance situation and, based on the possible actions and on the impacts they may have in the plant costs performance, suggests the most appropriate course. The suggestion is made aiming the minimization of the life cycle costs. Results have been validated in test cases performed both at simulation and real industrial environments. The results obtained at the tests cases demonstrated the feasibility of the developed methodology as well as its adequateness and applicability in the domain of interest.
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Washko, J. Matthew(Jon Matthew). "Risk based decision making for the deferment of U.S. Navy submarine maintenance." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2019. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/122312.
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Thesis: Nav. E., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, 2019Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, 2019
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (page 49).
Maintenance of United States Navy submarines is a complex set of operations comprised of scheduling, budgeting, and executing a continuous stream of work across multiple vessels in the same maintenance facility year after year. Local personnel are involved in the details of the day to day operations and focus deeply on today and tomorrow, with little bandwidth to focus on larger, systemic issues with impacts far removed from today. The addition of fluctuating annual funding levels, a younger workforce, and the pressures to meet national defense requirements add complexity and compound the pressure to mortgage tomorrow for today by deferring work without regards to its later impact. Recently, the maintenance community has begun to invest time and resources in these larger, systemic issues. This thesis investigates the impacts of deferred maintenance actions on the timely completion of submarine maintenance periods by analyzing data from 50 refits executed over a decade at Trident Refit Facility in King's Bay, Georgia. The results of this thesis are best understood in three parts: the impact of deferred maintenance actions on submarine refit on-time completions, the development of a technical, risk-based deferment decision tool, and the possible application of deferring or canceling certain maintenance items as a way to reduce the maintenance workload across the fleet. The first part shows the quantitative analysis of the data demonstrating that deferred maintenance actions are not having any negative impacts to on-time schedule execution. The second part shows how through technical analysis and application of a probability and consequence risk framework, deferment decisions can be analyzed to ensure that only low-risk work is being deferred. And finally, an application of that same framework can be made across the fleet to lower the maintenance backlog.
by J. Matthew Washko.
Nav. E.
S.M.
Nav.E. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering
S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering
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Haghighi, Mona. "Rule-based Risk Monitoring Systems for Complex Datasets." Scholar Commons, 2016. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/6248.
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In this dissertation we present rule-based machine learning methods for solving problems with high-dimensional or complex datasets. We are applying decision tree methods on blood-based biomarkers and neuropsychological tests to predict Alzheimer’s disease in its early stages. We are also using tree-based methods to identify disparity in dementia related biomarkers among three female ethnic groups. In another part of this research, we tried to use rule-based methods to identify homogeneous subgroups of subjects who share the same risk patterns out of a heterogeneous population. Finally, we applied a network-based method to reduce the dimensionality of a clinical dataset, while capturing the interaction among variables. The results show that the proposed methods are efficient and easy to use in comparison to the current machine learning methods.
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Cai, Zhongtang. "Risk-based proactive availability management." Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/22581.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008.Committee Member: Ahamad, Mustaque; Committee Member: Eisenhauer, Greg; Committee Member: Milojicic, Dejan; Committee Member: Pu, Calton; Committee Member: Schwan, Karsten.
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Ormon, Stephen Wayne. "Development of a hierarchical, model-based design decision-support tool for assessing uncertainty of cost estimates." Master's thesis, Mississippi State : Mississippi State University, 2002. http://library.msstate.edu/etd/show.asp?etd=etd-04092002-084914.
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Lee, Benjamin David. "An investigation of prescribed risk management practices in engineering design." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/33958.
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In this thesis, a decision model for examining prescribed risk management practices in engineering design is presented. The decision model explicitly considers the effects that design decisions under uncertainty have on the overall utility of the design process. These effects are important to consider because, according to Utility Theory, the designer should make decisions such that the expected utility is maximized. However, a significant portion of the literature neglects the costs of the design process, and focuses only on the quality of the design artifact, or at best includes its manufacture when determining the utility of an alternative. When designers neglect the costs of the design process, they cannot make tradeoffs between the costs of the design process and the quality of the artifact. As compared to previous work in this area, the decision model presented includes the effects of temporally degrading product utility on design decisions. The decision model is used to investigate the impacts of degrading product utilities in products that launch later as a result of the duration of design actions performed. In this thesis, the decision model is leveraged to investigate two key trends in engineering design resulting from increasing temporally-based costs. To support the conclusions in this thesis, quantitative evaluations of the decision model are investigated for two case studies. The conclusions are additionally supported through evaluations of the decision model in boundary plots that visualize prescribed behavior for designers over varying model parameters.
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Bicik, Josef. "A risk-based decision support system for failure management in water distribution networks." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10036/110414.
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The operational management of Water Distribution Systems (WDS), particularly under failure conditions when the behaviour of a WDS is not well understood, is a challenging problem. The research presented in this thesis describes the development of a methodology for risk-based diagnostics of failures in WDS and its application in a near real-time Decision Support System (DSS) for WDS’ operation. In this thesis, the use of evidential reasoning to estimate the likely location of a burst pipe within a WDS by combining outputs of several models is investigated. A novel Dempster-Shafer model is developed, which fuses evidence provided by a pipe burst prediction model, a customer contact model and a hydraulic model to increase confidence in correctly locating a burst pipe. A new impact model, based on a pressure driven hydraulic solver coupled with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to capture the adverse effects of failures from an operational perspective, is created. A set of Key Performance Indicators used to quantify impact, are aggregated according to the preferences of a Decision Maker (DM) using the Multi-Attribute Value Theory. The potential of distributed computing to deliver a near real-time performance of computationally expensive impact assessment is explored. A novel methodology to prioritise alarms (i.e., detected abnormal flow events) in a WDS is proposed. The relative significance of an alarm is expressed using a measure of an overall risk represented by a set of all potential incidents (e.g., pipe bursts), which might have caused it. The DM’s attitude towards risk is taken into account during the aggregation process. The implementation of the main constituents of the proposed risk-based pipe burst diagnostics methodology, which forms a key component of the aforementioned DSS prototype, are tested on a number of real life and semi-real case studies. The methodology has the potential to enable more informed decisions to be made in the near real-time failure management in WDS.
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Rehan, Balqis Mohamed. "Risk-based flood protection decisions in the context of climatic variability and change." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2016. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:d4f3ecc7-0a85-46fe-a66c-4251ddbca83a.
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Flood events have caused detrimental impacts to humans' lives and anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the impact. It has been recognized that a long-term planning through risk-based optimization of flood defence will lead to a cost-effective solution for managing flood risk, but the prevailing assumption of stationarity may lead to an erroneous solution. In attempt to investigate the potential impact of the uncertain underlying statistical characteristics of extreme flow series to flood protection decisions, this research explores risk-based flood protection decisions in the context of climatic variability and change. In particular, the implications of persistence series and nonstationarity were investigated through hypothetical and real case studies. Monte Carlo simulation approach was adopted to capture the uncertainty due to the natural variability. For persistence model, AR(1) was integrated with the GEV model to simulate extreme flow series with persistence. To test the effects of nonstationary, GEV models with a linear location parameter and time as covariate were adopted. Rational decision makers' behaviours were simulated through a designed decision analysis framework. One of the main findings from the research is that the traditional stationary assumption should remain the basic assumption due to insignificant difference of the decisions' economic performance. However, exploration of the nonstationarity assumption enabled identification of options that are robust to climate uncertainties. It is also found that optimized protection of combined measures of flood defence and property-level protection may provide a cost-effective solution for local flood protection. Overall, the simulation and case studies enlighten practitioners and decision makers with new evidence, and may guide to practical enhancement of long term flood risk management decision making.
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Urquhart, Christine J. "Models of information value based on reliability and risk for clinical decision making." Thesis, Aberystwyth University, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.367546.
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Manap, Norpadzlihatun. "Risk-based decision making framework for the integrated environmental management of dredging sediments." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/18052.
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Many environmental management tools have been developed aiming to reduce the impacts of dredging and protect the environment. As this has typically not been done in an integrated way that takes into account the socio-economic, environmental, technical and managerial aspects of dredging, there is a need to develop an integrated decision making tool to manage the impacts of dredging and help decision makers make sustainable decisions concerning dredging. The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision making framework for the integrated environmental management of dredging sediments in order to reduce the impacts of dredging and to lower the cost of environmental quality analysis and management. Selection of the best sediment management option using the risk-based approach of integrated environmental management has the potential to help effectively balance and prioritize the various socio-economic, environmental, technical and managerial aspects of dredging. The proposed framework will therefore utilize this concept throughout its six developmental steps. The first step reviews the literature on the impact of dredging and the two main factors that determine its magnitude, namely sediments and dredging technology. In order to manage the impacts of dredging efficiently, the relationship between scientific evidence and dredging activities will be assessed in the second developmental step. This step evaluates historical evidence from three dredging projects undertaken between 2006 and 2008 on the rivers of Sungai Sitiawan and Sungai Dinding, Perak, Malaysia. Monitoring and fish toxicological data from these projects are analyzed to determine their relationship with dredging activities performed in these rivers, with Geographic Information System (GIS) software used to illustrate the relationships found. The third developmental step assesses dredging problems other than the environmental impacts using Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) analysis, an IEM-based tool. This tool was employed in Malaysia’s dredging industry using interviews and a questionnaire-based survey. Dredging experts, including representatives from port operators, manufacturing companies and dredging contractors, were interviewed in 2008, with the socio-economy and management being found as the main drivers, together with environmental impacts, affecting dredging stakeholders in Malaysia. In 2010, further dredging experts (including marine ecologists, registered chemists, professional and chartered engineers, environmental consultants, university professors and environmental analysts) responded to the questionnaire, with results suggesting that governance of dredging in Malaysia is weak and that it is essential for Malaysia to review its current dredging environmental management tools and practices. The fourth developmental step develops the first stage (screening) of the proposed framework based on understanding provided by the three steps developed previously and demonstrated using Malaysia as a case study. This screening stage utilizes the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) phases, which have been adjusted for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. Using case studies from Malaysia, the fifth developmental step (Tier 1) shows how Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria and is demonstrated for the Tier 1 stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) to characterize the degree of contamination found in the areas. Priority areas, their degree of contamination and other concerns are then identified and brought forward to the sixth developmental step (Tier 2 stage). The Tier 2 stage is demonstrated using previous findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment management option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging.
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Aiassa, E. "RISK ASSESSMENT FOR BOVINE WELFARE AT SLAUGHTER. A COMPARISON BETWEEN A RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EMPIRICAL DATA AND A RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EXPERT OPINION." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2434/155485.
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Background. Risk assessment is a systematic process that uses modelling to estimate the likelihood of adverse effects occurring from exposure to hazards. While risk assessment is widely used to support decision making in many areas of food and feed safety (e.g. veterinary epidemiology, toxicology, eco-toxicology), it is a relatively new concept for animal welfare. Currently there are no standardised guidelines for animal welfare risk assessment. Furthermore, very little research has been conducted to assess the reliability of the existing methods, which mostly rely on qualitative data and are based on expert opinion. Objectives. The objectives of this research project were to assess the scientific robustness of existing risk assessment methods for animal welfare and identify any potential methodological flaws of these processes. Methods. The currently available methods for animal welfare risk assessment were analysed in detail. Two risk assessments for beef cattle at slaughter (in northern Italy) were performed and compared. One based on empirical data (i.e. collected in slaughterhouses) and one based on expert opinion (gathered via a questionnaire submitted to a group of 11 experts).
The two new risk assessments were structured to be as similar as possible to the animal welfare risk assessments under appraisal. A list of 56 hazards potentially relevant to beef cattle at slaughter was produced via a literature review. The relevance of such hazards was assessed by a series of preliminary observations in abattoirs and by asking the 11 experts to assess it. Fourteen hazards were excluded from the subsequent analyses as never being observed during the on-site observations and indicated as not relevant by at least 5 out 11 experts.
For the risk assessment based on empirical data, a novel method for performing on-site exposure assessment and likelihood of the adverse effects (by severity levels) was developed. The method was based on a precise definition of the hazards and a differentiation between adverse welfare effects and measurable indicators of adverse effects. The latter were associated to different severity classes defined qualitatively on the basis of the intensity of the behavioural responses of the animals.
In the second risk assessment the approach to eliciting expert opinion was different from the existing animal welfare risk assessments (based on consensus opinion) as the experts answered the questionnaire independently. Thorough a series of risk assessment-tailored questions, the experts were asked to assess hazard exposure (for beef cattle at slaughter in northern Italy), characterise the adverse effects resulting from the exposure to the hazards and indicate the related uncertainty.
Exposure assessment based on empirical data and on expert opinion was compared for 42 hazards. As 18 hazards were never detected during the on-site observations (or the number of animals exposed was < 5), adverse effect characterisation and final risk were estimated and compared for 24 hazards. Results. The results of exposure assessment based on empirical data and on expert opinion were inconsistent for 24 out of 42 hazards. Consistent results for all possible adverse effects resulting from the exposure to a hazard never occurred. Often the variability between the experts’ responses on exposure assessment and adverse effect characterisation was high. In line with the results of exposure assessment and adverse effect characterisation, the two risk estimates rarely produced comparable results. Discussion. The analysis of the available methods for animal welfare risk assessment performed in this study, the discordance of the results of the two risk assessments and the variability between the experts’ responses highlighted some inherent flaws and requirements of existing risk assessments for animal welfare. A more detailed and measurable description of the hazards should be available. Further, a clear understanding of the animal welfare outcomes and their measurement is paramount. In addition, while performing the on-site observations it was clear that interactions between hazards and different hazards intensities and durations need more consideration. The method developed for performing on-site exposure assessment and estimating the likelihood of the adverse effects proved to be very valuable to solve most of the highlighted limitations of existing animal welfare risk assessments. Conclusions. A unique and useful approach to defining the hazards for animal welfare and to assessing animal welfare in a measurable and quantifiable way was developed. In particular the method for assessing animal welfare was based on a clear differentiation between adverse welfare effects and measurable indicators of poor welfare (classified by severity levels). This approach to hazard description and welfare outcome definition and assessment is recommended for enhancing empirical research on animal welfare especially when there is a lack of empirical data for risk assessment. Furthermore, this method can lead to a standardised and harmonised approach for the evaluation of hazards and adverse effects between experts, leading to more robust risk assessments. This study also proposed an alternative method for eliciting expert opinion based on independent scoring of the risk assessment parameters. The approach showed very useful implications for identifying sources of uncertainties that are normally overlooked in existing risk assessments for animal welfare, such as difficulties in assessing the risk assessment parameters, disagreements between the experts or lack of expert knowledge.
Finally this study highlighted that, independently of the data used for the risk assessment (i.e. empirical data or expert opinion), the method for either reviewing the literature or gathering expert opinion should be chosen in light of the best available practices. The process and any decisions taken should be documented to ensure greater transparency and reproducibility.
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El, Sabbagh Amid. "Seismic Risk Assessment of Unreinforced Masonry Buildings Using Fuzzy Based Techniques for the Regional Seismic Risk Assessment of Ottawa, Ontario." Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/30508.
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Unreinforced masonry construction is considered to be the most vulnerable forms of construction as demonstrated through recent earthquakes. In Canada, many densely populated cities such as (Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa) have large inventories of seismically vulnerable masonry structures. Although measures have been taken to rehabilitate and increase the seismic resistance of important and historic structures, many existing unreinforced masonry structures have not been retrofitted and remain at risk in the event of a large magnitude earthquake. There is therefore a need to identify buildings at risk and develop tools for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing unreinforced masonry structures in Canada.
This thesis presents results from an ongoing research program which forms part of a multi-disciplinary effort between the University of Ottawa’s Hazard Mitigation and Disaster Management Research Centre and the Geological Survey of Canada (NRCAN) to assess the seismic vulnerability of buildings in dense urban areas such as Ottawa, Ontario. A risk-based seismic assessment tool (CanRisk) has been developed to assess the seismic vulnerability of existing unreinforced masonry and reinforced concrete structures. The seismic risk assessment tool exploits the use of fuzzy logic, a soft computing technique, to capture the vagueness and uncertainty within the evaluation of the performance of a given building. In order to conduct seismic risk assessments, a general building inventory and its spatial distribution and variability is required for earthquake loss estimations. The Urban Rapid Assessment Tool (Urban RAT) is designed for the rapid collection of building data in urban centres. This Geographic Information System (GIS) based assessment tool allows for intense data collection and revolutionizes the traditional sidewalk survey approach for collecting building data. The application of CanRisk and the Urban RAT tool to the City of Ottawa is discussed in the following thesis. Data collection of over 13,000 buildings has been obtained including the seismic risk assessment of 1,465 unreinforced masonry buildings. A case study of selected URM buildings located in the City of Ottawa was conducted using CanRisk. Data obtained from the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake in New Zealand was utilized for verification of the tool.
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Crotta, M. "PROBABILISTIC MODELLING IN FOOD SAFETY: A SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH FOR POLICY DECISIONS." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2434/339138.
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This thesis deals with use of qualitative and quantitative probabilistic models for the animal-derived food safety management. Four unrelated models are presented: three quantitative and one qualitative. Two of the quantitative models concern the risk posed by pathogens in raw milk, in the first study, a probabilistic approach for the inclusion of the variability and the uncertainty in the consumers’ habits and the bacterial pathogenic potential is proposed while the second study, demonstrate how the overlook of the relationship between the storage time and temperature has led to overestimated results in raw milk-related models published so far and an equation to address the issue is provided. In the third study, quantitative modelling techniques are used to simulate the dynamics underlying the spread of Campylobacter in broiler flocks and quantify the potential effects that different on-farm mitigation strategies or management measures have on the microbial load in the intestine of infected birds at the end of the rearing period. In the qualitative study, a general approach for the estimation of the likelihoods of introduction of live parasites in aquaculture implants and the commercialization of infested product is outlined by using the example of Anisakids in farmed Atlantic salmon.
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Hamouda, Ghada. "Risk-Based Decision Support Model for Planning Emergency Response for Hazardous Materials Road Accidents." Thesis, University of Waterloo, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10012/829.
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Hazardous Materials (HazMat) are transported throughout Canada in a great number of road shipments. The transportation of HazMat poses special risks for neighboring population and environment. While HazMat accidents are rare events, they could be catastrophic in nature and could result in substantial damage to nearby communities. Effective emergency response plays an important role in the safe transportation of HazMat. Transportation of HazMat involves different parties, including shippers, regulators, and surrounding communities. While the shipping party is responsible for safe delivery of HazMat shipments, it is the responsibility of local emergency service agencies to respond to accidents occurring within their jurisdictions. In this research, the emergency response to HazMat transport accidents is assumed to be delegated exclusively to specially trained and equipped HazMat teams. This research proposes a new comprehensive systematic approach to determine the best location of HazMat teams on regional bases utilizing HazMat transport risk as a location criterion. The proposed model is the first to consider emergency response roles in HazMat transport risk analysis, and was intended as an optimization tool to be used by practitioners for HazMat emergency response planning. Additionally, the proposed model can be used to assess risk implications in regards to current locations of HazMat teams in a region, and to develop effective strategies for locating HazMat teams, such as closing and/or relocating teams in the region. The model investigates how HazMat team locations can be tailored to recognize the risk of transporting HazMat and would provide a more objective set of input alternatives into the multi-criteria decision making process of regionally locating HazMat teams. The proposed model was applied to the region of southwestern Ontario in effort to illustrate its features and capabilities in the HazMat emergency response planning and decision making process. Accordingly, the model provided very useful insights while reviewing several HazMat team location strategies for the southwestern Ontario region and investigating tradeoff among different factors. This research contributes to a better understanding of emergency response roles by reducing HazMat transport risks, and will greatly benefit both researchers and practitioners in the field of HazMat transport and emergency response.
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Stopper, Colin Michael. "Dissociable roles for nucleus accumbens core and shell in regulating risk-based decision making." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/27820.
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Decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty constitutes a fundamental aspect of society. Few routine cost/benefit decisions are independent of any consideration of risk and uncertainty, from investing and financial matters to simple assessments of time management and resource allocation. Neuropsychological studies with brain-damaged patients gave initial insights into the cortical contributions to risk-based decision making. Subsequent imaging work has allowed for an understanding of the neural functioning of patients afflicted by disorders which impair risk-based decision making and has also implicated various subcortical structures, including the nucleus accumbens, in these types of decisions. Recent research in humans has shown that nucleus accumbens activation precedes risk-taking or risk-seeking on a financial decision making task. Additionally, animal research has determined that lesions of the nucleus accumbens bias choice away from larger but riskier rewards. The current experiments expand upon these findings by demonstrating that inactivation of a subregion of the accumbens, the shell, is responsible for this bias while the other subregion, the core, mediates the speed at which these decision are made. The effects of accumbens inactivation on risky choice appeared to be due to a reduced tendency to choose the riskier option following trials where rats chose risky and received reward (i.e., reduced win-stay performance), suggesting reduced reward sensitivity. Additionally, this set of experiments demonstrates that instead of inducing risk-aversive tendencies, inactivation of the nucleus accumbens interferes with general value judgments. Specifically, accumbens inactivation induces a slight reduction in preference for the larger reward when the risk/uncertainty component is eliminated. Additionally, inactivation only shifts choice preference away from the more valuable option when it is larger and probabilistic. These data suggest that in addition to effort- and delay-based decision making, the nucleus accumbens also mediates risk-based decision making. In addition to decisions under risk, the nucleus accumbens also seems to play a smaller, yet significant role in judgments of overall value and utility.
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Meraner, Manuela [Verfasser]. "Decision making under risk in agriculture : An experimental and survey based analysis / Manuela Meraner." Bonn : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1150182970/34.
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Chesney, Peter Eric. "A computer-based modelling framework for incorporating public perceptual values into risk decision-making." Thesis, University of Derby, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.409077.
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Hifi, Nabile. "Decision support system for risk-based inspection and maintenance planning for ship hull structures." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2013. http://oleg.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=25552.
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This thesis aims to develop a decision support system for inspection and maintenance planning of ship hull structures considering the effects of repair activities performed during the different periodical inspection events through the service life of a ship. Because of the severe environmental conditions in which ships operate, their structure is continually subjected to fatigue and corrosion degradation and as a result of that their strength is reduced. Corrosion and fatigue cracking represent the most aggressive types of structural damage faced by ship structures, either of which, if not properly repaired or adjusted, can potentially lead to leakage, pollution, fire, critical failures or unanticipated out of service time and economic costs. For an economic design to be achieved, the ship structures need to be maintained during their life. Building a ship with enough safety margins so that repairs would not be required during its life would be uneconomical and not technically feasible. From the viewpoint of survey and inspection of ship hull structures, improvements in inspection planning, safety and reduction of maintenance costs are the most needed. These issues are addressed in the newly developed decision support system described in this thesis. Inspection planning may be based on experience (determined by Class Society guidelines), which generally treat all ships with the same inspection program or based on a risk-based maintenance planning program. In the first case, only some of the knowledge that could be used to predict structural problems, in the case of ship-to-ship variation (construction or use), is gained from the data gathered, while in the second case, risk based maintenance methods can deal with any individual structural component or with overall ship structural integrity. To bridge the gap between these two approaches, this thesis combines the knowledge gained from currently used practice in ship inspection and maintenance and from risk-based methods which have already been proven as a good practice in several industrial applications. The newly developed decision support system is employed to calibrate the results of prediction models based on the collected data. To assist in the prediction of structural degradation of ships, a new structural connections catalogue, an inspection oriented ship defects database and a calibration methodology for structural degradation prediction models are developed. The new system is designed to improve risk-based ship inspection and maintenance planning programs. Application of the newly developed system will benefit inspection companies, class surveyors, ship managers and ship designers by providing a mechanism for the calibration of risk based inspection planning activities. The decision support system developed in this thesis is inherently adaptable and can be applied to many other applications that require a cost effective maintenace, e.g. renewable energy devices, offshore platforms, machinery systems, large structures such as bridges and other transport systems.
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Ghorbani, Komsari Sajjad. "Seismic Risk Assessment of Wood Frame Construction Using Fuzzy Based Techniques." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/31450.
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Wood-framed buildings have generally performed well during earthquake events, resulting in low fatality levels. However, various degrees of damage is still observed in these buildings during previous earthquakes. Lessons learned from the performance of wood frame construction in these earthquakes is led to an improvement in the design codes and construction practices over the past decades. But, the existing buildings are still vulnerable, since they were designed based on the older codes or constructed using old construction practices. Wood frame construction is the most common construction type in Canada, especially for single family dwellings. Most of these buildings are old, built prior to any modern seismic requirement, and have not been retrofitted against the damaging effects of earthquakes. Therefore, with a number of Canadians living in areas of high or moderate earthquake risk, there is a need to develop tools to assess the seismic vulnerability of the exiting wood-framed buildings in Canada.
In the following thesis, a risk-based visual seismic assessment model and a screening tool (CanRisk) is developed, to assess the seismic vulnerability of existing wood frame construction in Canada. The model is dependent on the seismic hazard, building vulnerability, and building importance/exposure, which are integrated using hierarchical fuzzy rule based modeling. In the proposed seismic assessment model, fuzzy logic is used as a computing technique to capture the vagueness and uncertainty of a seismic vulnerability assessment, caused by subjectivity involved in the evaluation process. The hierarchical fuzzy rule based modeling used in this seismic assessment method is implemented in a prototype Matlab based program (CanRisk), which incorporates the Canadian seismic design practice based on the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) and the Canadian site seismic hazard.
A sensitivity analysis is conducted to test and verify the seismic assessment model and investigate the effects of various parameters on the outcome of the assessment. Also, in a case study, selected wood-framed buildings located in the city of Ottawa are evaluated using CanRisk, to demonstrate the applicability of the program.
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Bello-Dambatta, Aisha. "The development of a web-based decision support system for the sustainable management of contaminated land." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10036/119265.
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Land is a finite natural resource that is increasingly getting exhausted as a result of land contamination. Land is made up of soil and groundwater, both of which have many functions for which we depend on, including provision of food and water, supporting shelter, natural flood defence, carbon sequestration, etc. Contaminants in land also pose a number of threats to public health and the environment; other natural resources; and have detrimental effects on property such as buildings, crops and livestock. The most effective method of dealing with these contaminants is to cleanup and return the sites to beneficial use. The cleanup process involves making a choice from amongst competing remediation technologies, where the wrong choice may have disastrous economic, environmental and/or social impacts. Contaminated land management is therefore much broader than the selection and implementation of remedial solutions, and requires extensive data collection and analysis at huge costs and effort. The need for decision support in contaminated land management decision-making has long been widely recognised, and in recent years a large number of Decision Support Systems (DSS) have been developed. This thesis presents the development of a Web-based knowledge-based DSS as an integrated management framework for the risk assessment of human health from, and sustainable management of, contaminated land. The developed DSS is based on the current UK contaminated land regime, published guidelines and technical reports from the UK Environment Agency (EA) and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and other Government agencies and departments. The decision-making process of the developed DSS comprises of key stages in the risk assessment and management of contaminated land: (i) preliminary qualitative risk assessment; (ii) generic quantitative risk assessment; and (iii) options appraisal of remediation technologies and remediation design. The developed DSS requires site specific details and measured contaminant concentrations from site samples as input and produces a site specific report as output. The DSS output is intended to be used as information to support with contaminated land management decision-making.
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Bharadwaj, Ujjwal R. "Risk based life management of offshore structures and equipment." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2010. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/8554.
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Risk based approaches are gaining currency as industry looks for rational, efficient and flexible approaches to managing their structures and equipment. When applied to inspection and maintenance of industrial assets, risk based approaches differ from other approaches mainly in their assessment of failure in its wider context and ramifications. These advanced techniques provide more insight into the causes and avoidance of structural failure and competing risks, as well as the resources needed to manage them. Measuring risk is a challenge that is being met with state of the art technology, skills, knowledge and experience. The thesis presents risk based approaches to solving two specific types of problem in the management of offshore structures and equipments. The first type is finding the optimum timing of an asset life management action such that financial benefit is maximised, considering the cost of the action and the risk (quantified in monetary terms) of not undertaking that action. The approach presented here is applied to managing remedial action in offshore wind farms and specifically to corroded wind turbine tower structures. The second type of problem is how to optimise resources using risk based criteria for managing competing demands. The approach presented here is applied to stocking spares in the shipping sector, where the cost of holding spares is balanced against the risk of failing to meet demands for spares. Risk is the leitmotiv running through this thesis. The approaches discussed here will find application in a variety of situations where competing risks are being managed within constraints.
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Boadi, Richard S. "Integrated asset management framework: using risk-based decision-support systems to manage ancillary highway assets." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/53562.
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Risk assessment is an essential part of an effective transportation asset management program. The 2012 surface transportation bill, Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century, requires state departments of transportation (DOTs) to establish risk- and performance-based asset management programs for the National Highway System. While the bill’s provisions include requirements only for pavement and bridge assets, they also recommend that DOTs consider other ancillary highway assets such as culverts and earth retaining structures, and hazards such as rockfalls and landslides. This research introduces an integrated risk framework with supporting algorithms to provide for the integration of ancillary assets and hazards into existing transportation asset management systems, and facilitate budget planning and resource allocation. The framework, Highway Assets Risk Management Decision-Support System (HARM-DSS), adopts a system-of systems perspective in defining and evaluating performance, and analyzing and addressing risk. The algorithms are developed using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and risk analysis methods; value functions are applied to scale performance attributes, and additive weighting to integrate multiple risk criteria. The methodology is applied at the corridor-level to analyze three different case studies using data with notable variability from New York, Minnesota and Oregon. The cases demonstrate the process for developing descriptive and visual information on multi-asset/hazard corridors, with sparse to medium data, in order to identify corridors that are vulnerable to failure, as well as exhibit high risk of failure within a transportation network. The results demonstrate that HARM-DSS can be applied across competing corridors or alternatives to produce descriptive and intuitive results that decision makers can use in budget planning and resource allocation. This research extends the risk-based thinking on transportation asset management, by moving it from a silo-ed to an integrated analytical platform that considers multiple non-homogenous assets and hazards simultaneously. It identifies data deficiencies and offers recommendations on the requisite data collection on asset inventory and condition to improve objectivity in the analytical process and confidence in the analysis results. In addition, it offers recommendations on the appropriate use of expert knowledge in supplementing existing data deficiencies in the interim. This work is potentially useful to decision makers involved in distributing resources to preserve the reliability and resiliency of transportation systems, as well as meet the existing performance- and risk-based Federal mandates for transportation asset management.
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Odediran, Sunday Julius. "A risk-based entry decision model for South African construction companies venturing into African markets." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/23651.
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This research examines the influence of international risks, and the level of resources of South African construction companies on entry decisions made to access cross‐border African construction markets. The study further investigates how the resources of South African construction companies and their decisions to enter into African construction markets, interact to mitigate the perceived impact of risks encountered in these markets. The study adopted a convergence of the mixed methods research approach where quantitative and qualitative data were collected concurrently from multiple sources. These data include a questionnaire survey distributed to construction companies registered on Grades 8 and 9 of the Construction Industry Development Board (cidb) Register of Contractors; interviews conducted with construction companies having international markets experience, as well as an assessment of annual and financial reports. Data obtained through the survey were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The model developed was validated using a partial least squares structural equation modelling technique. Thematic content analysis was adopted in analysing the data obtained from the assessments of company documents and interviews. The study reveals that the level of revenue, the assets, and the number of employees of South African construction companies with cross-border experience, influence the perceived impact of political, social, procurement, design and construction related-risks in foreign markets. It also emerged that the decisions on entry modes were significantly influenced by the perceived impact of all classes of risk. The study established that significant positive interactions exist between assets and joint venture companies; joint venture projects and branch offices and companies; and that international experience are significantly related to strategic alliance as an entry mode. The positive interactions between resources and entry decisions made mitigate the perceived impact of risk in African construction markets. The study makes a significant contribution to the body of knowledge on international construction, by establishing an all-inclusive risk profile of the African construction market. Also, it establishes that the resources of multinational construction companies influences their perception of risks, and that the perceived impact of risks influences cross‐border entry decisions made to access foreign markets to mitigate the risks encountered. A risk-based entry decision model as a strategic tool, helps multinational construction companies to leverage their resources, as well as providing an adequate perception of risks when deciding on an appropriate strategic entry mode which will mitigate the risks encountered in crossborder markets.
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Agostini, Paola <1975>. "Risk-based management of contaminated mega-sites: decision support systemas as integrating tools for sustainability." Doctoral thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/316.
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Ivans, Jr William Jeffrey. "A Decision Support Framework for Assessing the Technical Adequacy of Performance-Based Design Approaches to Fire Safety Engineering." Digital WPI, 2017. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-dissertations/491.
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"This research effort addresses key challenges associated with the technical review and acceptance of performance-based design approaches to fire safety engineering through development of a decision support framework and associated tool. Such design approaches seek to confirm that the overall fire safety system, which includes the building and its protective features, meets a set of fire safety objectives established by relevant stakeholders, and this confirmation is achieved through fire safety analysis, or the application of analytical and computational tools and methods. While the current approach to performance-based fire safety analysis relies on guidelines and standards, these rather generic, process-oriented documents do not provide fire protection engineers (FPEs) sufficient guidance to address critical elements of the analysis process in a systematic, consistent and technically adequate manner. Should a fire safety analysis contain technical deficiencies, then it becomes less clear that the design solution being proposed truly achieves the desired fire safety objectives. Moreover, project stakeholders, including the authority having jurisdiction (AHJ), may lack the necessary qualifications, expertise, or design intimacy to, suitably and reliably, identify and challenge deficient analyses. As a result, the current approach to fire safety analysis and its quality assurance has led to large variations in analysis quality and consequently levels of delivered performance. With no existing equivalent, a decision support framework is proposed that will assist the AHJ and FPEs in determining whether a fire safety analysis is of sufficient technical adequacy to support decision-making, regulatory or otherwise. Additionally, a decision support tool is developed to provide measures of confidence regarding an analysis’s conclusions and assist in identifying those aspects of the analysis most requiring corrective action. Lastly, while developed to address performance-based design approaches to fire safety engineering, the framework may easily be adapted to similar approaches in other fields of engineering, or more generally, applications that make use of process-oriented, analysis-driven design."
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Faverjon, Céline. "Risk based surveillance for vector-borne diseases in horses : combining multiple sources of evidence to improve decision making." Thesis, Clermont-Ferrand 2, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015CLF22604/document.
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Les maladies émergentes à transmission vectorielle sont une préoccupation croissante et particulièrement lorsqu’elles affectent les chevaux, une population spécifiquement à risque vis-à-vis de la propagation de maladies. En effet, les chevaux voyagent fréquemment et, malgré l’impact sanitaire et économique des maladies équines, les règlementations sanitaires et les principes de biosécurité et de traçabilité censés assurer la sécurité des mouvements d'équidés ne sont pas toujours en place. Notre travail propose d'améliorer la surveillance des maladies à transmission vectorielle chez les chevaux en utilisant différentes méthodes pour estimer la probabilité d'émergence d'une maladie. Tout d'abord, nous avons développé un modèle quantitatif et spatio-temporel combinant différentes probabilités pour estimer les risques d'introduction de la peste équine et de l’encéphalose équine. Ces combinaisons permettent d’obtenir une image plus détaillée du risque posé par ces agents pathogènes. Nous avons ensuite évalué des systèmes de surveillance syndromique par deux approches méthodologiques: l'approche classique avec un seuil d'alarme basé sur un multiple de l'erreur standard de prédiction, et l'approche bayésienne basée sur le rapport de vraisemblance. Nous avons travaillé ici principalement sur la détection précoce du virus West Nile en utilisant les symptômes nerveux des chevaux. Les deux approches ont fourni des résultats prometteurs, mais l’approche bayésienne était particulièrement intéressante pour obtenir un résultat quantitatif et pour combiner différentes informations épidémiologiques. Pour finir, l'approche bayésienne a été utilisée pour combiner quantitativement différentes sources d'estimation du risque : surveillance syndromique multivariée, et combinaison de la surveillance syndromique avec les résultats d’analyses de risques. Ces combinaisons ont données des résultats prometteurs. Ce travail, basé sur des estimations de risque, contribue à améliorer la surveillance des maladies à transmission vectorielle chez les chevaux et facilite la prise de décision. Les principales perspectives de ce travail sont d'améliorer la collecte et le partage de données, de mettre en oeuvre une évaluation complète des performances des systèmes de surveillance multivariés, et de favoriser l'adoption de ce genre d’approche par les décideurs en utilisant une interface conviviale et en mettant en place un transfert de connaissanceEmerging vector-borne diseases are a growing concern, especially for horse populations, which are at particular risk for disease spread. In general, horses travel widely and frequently and, despite the health and economic impacts of equine diseases, effective health regulations and biosecurity systems to ensure safe equine movements are not always in place. The present work proposes to improve the surveillance of vector-borne diseases in horses through the use of different approaches that assess the probability of occurrence of a newly introduced epidemic. First, we developed a spatiotemporal quantitative model which combined various probabilities in order to estimate the risk of introduction of African horse sickness and equine encephalosis. Such combinations of risk provided more a detailed picture of the true risk posed by these pathogens. Second, we assessed syndromic surveillance systems using two approaches: a classical approach with the alarm threshold based on the standard error of prediction, and a Bayesian approach based on a likelihood ratio. We focused particularly on the early detection of West Nile virus using reports of nervous symptoms in horses. Both approaches provided interesting results but Bayes’ rule was especially useful as it provided a quantitative output and was able to combine different epidemiological information. Finally, a Bayesian approach was also used to quantitatively combine various sources of risk estimation in a multivariate syndromic surveillance system, as well as a combination of quantitative risk assessment with syndromic surveillance (applied to West Nile virus and equine encephalosis, respectively). Combining evidence provided promising results. This work, based on risk estimations, strengthens the surveillance of VBDs in horses and can support public health decision making. It also, however, highlights the need to improve data collection and data sharing, to implement full performance assessments of complex surveillance systems, and to use effective communication and training to promote the adoption of these approaches
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Qiao, Yuanhua. "Quantitative transportation risk analysis based on available data/databases: decision support tools for hazardous materials transportation." Diss., Texas A&M University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/5940.
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Historical evidence has shown that incidents due to hazardous materials (HazMat) releases during transportation can lead to severe consequences. The public and some agencies such as the Department of Transportation (DOT) show an increasing concern with the hazard associated with HazMat transportation. Many hazards may be identified and controlled or eliminated through use of risk analysis. Transportation Risk Analysis (TRA) is a powerful tool in HazMat transportation decision support system. It is helpful in choosing among alternate routes by providing information on risks associated with each route, and in selecting appropriate risk reduction alternatives by demonstrating the effectiveness of various alternatives. Some methodologies have been developed to assess the transportation risk; however, most of those proposed methodologies are hard to employ directly by decision or policy makers. One major barrier is the lack of the match between available data/database analysis and the numerical methodologies for TRA. In this work methodologies to assess the transportation risk are developed based on the availability of data or databases. The match between the availability of data/databases and numerical TRA methodologies is pursued. Each risk component, including frequency, release scenario, and consequence, is assessed based on the available data/databases. The risk is measured by numerical algorithms step by step in the transportation network. Based on the TRA results, decisions on HazMat transportation could be made appropriately and reasonably. The combination of recent interest in expanding or building new facilities to receive liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, along with increased awareness and concern about potential terrorist action, has raised questions about the potential consequences of incidents involving LNG transportation. One of those consequences, rapid phase transition (RPT), is studied in this dissertation. The incidents and experiments of LNG-water RPT and theoretical analysis about RPT mechanism are reviewed. Some other consequences, like pool spread and vapor cloud dispersion, are analyzed by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) model.
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Borodin, Dmitry. "Development and Application of Credit Scoring Models in Retail Decision-Making Processes of Financial Institutions." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-264692.
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Usage of outputs from credit scoring models within decision-making process is often neglected in the existing literature. Nonetheless, it is a critical component of a successful lending process. This thesis introduces the concept of credit scoring and discusses steps typically employed within model development process. This thesis then provides an overview of how modeling outputs are typically used in lending. The thesis primarily focuses on definition of cut-offs points, policy and business rules, limit assignment and risk based pricing. The introduced approaches are modeled in the last part of the thesis.
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Sun, Yu. "Risk-based framework for freight movement analysis." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2002.
Find full textAbstract:
Decision-making models have, m the recent years, been developed to provide systematic and comprehensive tools to analyse, evaluate and manage freight movement.
Freight transport models developed thus far have not precisely defined risk agents brought by travelling vehicles, which lead to indistinct risk types. Instead, most of the models developed discussed the risks mainly related to direct impacts by traffic accidents. On the other hand, transport efficiency, which is of more and more concern, has not been sufficiently emphasised in the previous models.
This thesis studies the factors in relation to not only safety issues, but efficiency issues. And the risks due to freight movement have been classified into categories in accordance with their distinct natures and typically, affected population groups including human, environment and economic infrastructure. Two new theories, risk
agent and risk response factor, have been introduced to the framework to precisely define and evaluate various risk types. Vehicle travelling on a specific route may encounter various situations combined by road characteristics, traffic flow and weather conditions, etc. In order to assist in analysing freight movement in a systematic manner, freight movement behaviours,
which pose negative impacts to nearby population, are divided into different modes, which have been interpreted as "risk-producing activities" in the Risk-based
Framework for Freight Movement Analysis (RBF-FMA) in order to identify the characteristics of the risk agents.
It is important to differentiate the segments with significant changes in the travel risk producing conditions. This study divides travel route into segments and each segment is assessed separately and differentiates among three segment types: travel segment,
intersection, and roundabout according to their different contributing factors. The framework developed in this study also considers the availability of emergency
response facilities and support system as a major risk-reducing factor. When applied and compared with the risk rating results estimated by the Queensland
Transport Department (QTD) using their risk-rating model, the RBF-FMA gave highly comparable results. In the evaluation, both the QTD and RBF-FMA models were applied to assess the risk associated with the release of hazardous mate1ials at 25 segments identified as having high risk by the QTD. The RBF-FMA was also
successfully applied to compare two routes between two common points and the results were generally consistent with the concentration of human population,
enviromnental population and economic activity and infrastructure along the two routes. The basic data that was needed to conduct the RBF-FMA was easily generated
using site visits and from available data basis.
While the RBF-FMA presents a logical framework that is based on the risk assessment and management methodology, the process of assigning scores (ranks) and
weights to the various factors and sub-factors is basically subjective and reflects the education, values, judgement and understanding of the model by the user. It is recognised that this subjectivity can lead to viability in the results. The contribution of this study is significant in that it translates the basic risk
assessment model used in the public health field into a framework suitable for rating the risk associated with freight movement. In addition, the effort presented a basic modelling approach that can be modified or built on by other researchers in this field. The framework formulated in this study is worthy of further research and development as it can be used as a useful system for making decisions related to moving freight along selected routes. Further work could include development of a
GIS-based computer program which is able to contain huge amount of risk assessment data associated with freight movement and provide a visual operation of the risk
analysis.
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Li, Fan. "Performance evaluation and decision support in industrial system management : a benefit-cost-value-risk based methodology." Thesis, Paris, ENSAM, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017ENAM0019/document.
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La mesure et la gestion de la performance représente de sérieux défis aux praticiens et chercheurs en génie industriel et sciences de gestion pour une prise de décision efficace sur base d’informations intégrées, dynamiques et pertinentes concernant la satisfaction simultanée d’objectifs émanant de diverses parties-prenantes. Bien que nombreuses méthodologies et outils aient déjà été proposés, des progrès en la matière sont encore possibles pour aider les gestionnaires et les ingénieurs à prendre de meilleures décisions et ce, de manière plus systématique.En considérant que la performance d’un système, projet ou processus industriel peut-être globalement évaluée en suivant quatre dimensions (bénéfice, coût, valeur et risque), cette thèse propose un cadre original et complet ainsi qu’une méthodologie opérationnelle afin d’appliquer des méthodes et outils d’intervention appropriés dans l’évaluation de la performance et l’aide à la décision au sein de projets industriels.A l’aide de plusieurs exemples inspirés de cas industriels, ces travaux soulignent que la méthodologie proposée peut être le support de : l’évaluation de plusieurs scénarios de décision pour sélectionner la solution la plus appropriée, l’évaluation de la performance à toutes phases d’un projet industriel et le pilotage d’un projet en cours avec plusieurs points d’évaluation durant le cycle de viePerformance measurement and management represents serious challenges to practitioners and researchers in industrial engineering and management sciences for efficient decision making with integrated, dynamic and relevant performance information regarding simultaneous accomplishment of multiple stakeholder objectives. Although many methodologies and approaches have already been proposed, there is still room for new advances to go further in assisting managers and engineers to make better decisions in a more systematic manner.Assuming that the performance of an industrial system, project or process can be comprehensively evaluated by four main dimensions (benefit, cost, value and risk), the thesis proposes an original and complete framework as well as an operational methodology to apply relevant supporting methods and tools for the sake of performance evaluation and decision support in industrial projects.Using several examples based on industrial cases, the work emphasises that the proposed methodology can provide the support for: opportunity assessment of several decision alternatives to select the most appropriate one, performance evaluation at any phase of an industrial project and monitoring of an ongoing industrial project requiring performance evaluation at several phases along its life history
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Caponiti, Alice K. (Alice Kathleen). "Barriers to implementing risk-based decision making for the Department of Energy's weapons complex cleanup program." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/36070.
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