Relevant bibliographies by topics / Risk assessment mathematical models; fermentation mathematical models

Academic literature on the topic 'Risk assessment mathematical models; fermentation mathematical models'

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Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 28 January 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Risk assessment mathematical models; fermentation mathematical models"

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De Wrachien, D., and S. Mambretti. "Mathematical models for flood hazard assessment." International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering 1, no. 4 (December 31, 2011): 353–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/safe-v1-n4-353-362.

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Park, Colin N. "Mathematical models in quantitative assessment of carcinogenic risk." Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology 9, no. 3 (June 1989): 236–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0273-2300(89)90062-7.

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Kodell, Ralph L. "The use of mathematical models in carcinogenesis risk assessment." Mathematical and Computer Modelling 11 (1988): 146–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0895-7177(88)90470-0.

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Сычев, Михаил, Mikhail Sychev, Владимир Минаев, Vladimir Minaev, Александр Фаддеев, and Aleksandr Faddeev. "Seismic risk assessment in tourist-recreational areas: mathematical models." Servis Plus 9, no. 2 (June 15, 2015): 25–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/11309.

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The article highlights the problem of evaluation of seismic risks in the tourism and recreational areas. To this end, the grounded and practically being tested mathematical model for evaluating the seismic stability of tourist-recreational area on the example of the Black Sea, the Caspian and the Mediterranean region. This model combines the influences of disturbances associated with the anomalous gravity field (vertical component), and takes into account modern crustal movements (horizontal component), calculated according to the space geodesy. The physical model of the geological environment in the form of a closed homogeneous isotropic elastic space in the form of "plates" with as averaging the values of the density, shear modulus and Young´s modulus is suggested. The geological environment is considered in the framework of Newtonian rheology, that is without taking into account the seismic deformation of energy dissipation. Experimental calculations show good agreement with the results of modeling really occurred in the historically-sky aspect of the catastrophic earthquakes in the study area. Suggested an additional testing model by comparing the orientation of the vectors of the horizontal displacements at the surface, resultingfrom mathematical modeling, containing information on contemporary movements of the earth´s crust according to the space geodesy. The analysis shows that the greatest seismic risk are generally a characteristic of those places of the study area, where the vectors of horizontal displacements in opposite directions, characterized by a helical orientation. The prospects of using the model are describe, if it is considered according to Maxwell rheology of the medium, which allows to take into account the effect of the relaxation of stresses and strains in the rate of accumulation in the subsurface. This approach may allow a quantitative estimation of the seismic deformation energy dissipation, which is very significant in terms of the forecast estimates ofseismicity in the time aspect.
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Euhus, David M. "Understanding Mathematical Models for Breast Cancer Risk Assessment and Counseling." Breast Journal 7, no. 4 (July 2001): 224–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1524-4741.2001.20012.x.

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Seigneur, Christian, Akula Venkatram, Don Galya, Paul Anderson, David Liu, Donna Foliart, Rudolph von Burg, Yoram Cohen, Thomas Permutt, and Leonard Levin. "Review of mathematical models for health risk assessment: I. Overview." Environmental Software 7, no. 1 (January 1992): 3–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0266-9838(92)90018-y.

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Seigneur, Christian. "Review of mathematical models for health risk assessment: VI. population exposure." Environmental Software 9, no. 2 (January 1994): 133–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0266-9838(94)90005-1.

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Liu, David. "Review of mathematical models for health risk assessment: VII. chemical dose." Environmental Software 9, no. 3 (January 1994): 153–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0266-9838(94)90027-2.

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Ivanyo, Yaroslav, Nina Fedurina, and Zhanna Varanitsa-Gorodovskaya. "Mathematical models of agricultural production management in high risk environments." E3S Web of Conferences 222 (2020): 01018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202022201018.

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The paper presents an algorithm for modeling the production of agricultural products in the formation of agrometeorological events. Stochastic models of variability of downpours, early snow-fall and crop yields are constructed to assess the likelihood of extreme events. Based on a probabilistic assessment of crop bio-productivity by a normative method, economic losses from agrometeorological events are determined. A model for optimizing crop production taking into account natural risks was built and implemented for an agricultural organization. The results were obtained according to data of the Irkutsk district.
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Shuryak, Igor. "Enhancing low-dose risk assessment using mechanistic mathematical models of radiation effects." Journal of Radiological Protection 39, no. 4 (September 27, 2019): S1—S13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1361-6498/ab3101.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Risk assessment mathematical models; fermentation mathematical models"

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Yeo, Keng Leong Actuarial Studies Australian School of Business UNSW. "Claim dependence in credibility models." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Actuarial Studies, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/25971.

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Existing credibility models have mostly allowed for one source of claim dependence only, that across time for an individual insured risk or a group of homogeneous insured risks. Numerous circumstances demonstrate that this may be inadequate and insufficient. In this dissertation, we developed a two-level common effects model, based loosely on the Bayesian model, which allows for two possible sources of dependence, that across time for the same individual risk and that between risks. For the case of Normal common effects, we are able to derive explicit formulas for the credibility premium. This takes the intuitive form of a weighted average between the individual risk's claims experience, the group's claims experience and the prior mean. We also consider the use of copulas, a tool widely used in other areas of work involving dependence, in constructing credibility premiums. Specifically, we utilise copulas to model the dependence across time for an individual risk or group of homogeneous risks. We develop the construction with several well-known families of copulas and are able to derive explicit formulas for their respective conditional expectations. Whilst some recent work has been done on constructing credibility models with copulas, explicit formulas for the conditional expectations have rarely been made available. Finally, we calibrate these copula credibility models using a real data set. This data set relates to the claims experience of workers' compensation insurance by occupation over a 7-year period for a particular state in the United States. Our results show that for each occupation, claims dependence across time is indeed present. Amongst the copulas considered in our empirical analysis, the Cook-Johnson copula model is found to be the best fit for the data set used. The calibrated copula models are then used for prediction of the next period's claims. We found that the Cook-Johnson copula model gives superior predictions. Furthermore, this calibration exercise allowed us to uncover the importance of examining the nature of the data and comparing it with the characteristics of the copulas we are calibrating to.
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Wang, Na. "Estimation of Extra Risk and Benchmark Dose in Dose Response Models." Fogler Library, University of Maine, 2008. http://www.library.umaine.edu/theses/pdf/WangN2008.pdf.

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Owen, Michelle L. "Exposure model : detailed profiling and quantification of the exposure of personnel to geotechnical hazards in underground mines." University of Western Australia. School of Civil and Resource Engineering, 2004. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2005.0031.

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[Truncated abstract] This thesis presents an operationally applicable and reliable model for quantification of the exposure of underground mining personnel to geotechnical hazards. The model is shown to have the flexibility to apply to very different operational environments, within the context of mechanised metalliferous mines. It provides an essential component for carrying out quantitative geotechnical risk analyses of underground mines. Increasingly prevalent within the Australian mining industry are moves towards a riskbased philosophy instead of prescriptive design procedures. A barrier to this has been the lag in availability of resources (personnel and technical) required for the intensive effort of applying probabilistic methods to geotechnical engineering at mines ... One of the missing components for quantitative risk analysis in mines has been an accurate model of personnel exposure to geotechnical hazards, from which meaningful estimates can be made of the probabilities of serious or fatal injury given a rockfall. Exposure profiling for geotechnical risk analysis at minesites has traditionally involved the simple classification of travelways and entry areas by their occupancy rate, not taking into account traffic and work characteristics which may significantly influence the risks. Therefore, it was the focus of this thesis to address that deficiency and progress the ability to perform semi-quantitative and quantitative risk analyses in mines.
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Zhu, Dongming 1963. "Asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions : theory and applications to finance and risk management." Thesis, McGill University, 2007. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=102854.

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This thesis focuses on construction, properties and estimation of asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions, as well as on their applications to financial modeling and risk measurement. First of all, we suggest a general procedure to construct a fully asymmetric distribution based on a symmetrically parametric distribution, and establish some natural relationships between the symmetric and asymmetric distributions. Then, three new classes of asymmetric distributions are proposed by using the procedure: the Asymmetric Exponential Power Distributions (AEPD), the Asymmetric Student-t Distributions (ASTD) and the Asymmetric Generalized t Distribution (AGTD). For the first two distributions, we give an interpretation of their parameters and explore basic properties of them, including moments, expected shortfall, characterization by the maximum entropy property, and the stochastic representation. Although neither distribution satisfies the regularity conditions under which the ML estimators have the usual asymptotics, due to a non-differentiable likelihood function, we nonetheless establish asymptotics for the full MLE of the parameters. A closed-form expression for the Fisher information matrix is derived, and Monte Carlo studies are provided. We also illustrate the usefulness of the GARCH-type models with the AEPD and ASTD innovations in the context of predicting downside market risk of financial assets and demonstrate their superiority over skew-normal and skew-Student's t GARCH models. Finally, two new classes of generalized extreme value distributions, which include Jenkinson's GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) distribution (Jenkinson, 1955) as special cases, are proposed by using the maximum entropy principle, and their properties are investigated in detail.
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Shen, Yunxiang. "Risk analysis and its application in mining project evaluation." Thesis, McGill University, 1987. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=64009.

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Blatt, Sharon L. "An in-depth look at the information ratio." Link to electronic thesis, 2004. http://www.wpi.edu/Pubs/ETD/Available/etd-0824104-155216/.

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Cross, Richard J. (Richard John). "Inference and Updating of Probabilistic Structural Life Prediction Models." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/19828.

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Aerospace design requirements mandate acceptable levels of structural failure risk. Probabilistic fatigue models enable estimation of the likelihood of fatigue failure. A key step in the development of these models is the accurate inference of the probability distributions for dominant parameters. Since data sets for these inferences are of limited size, the fatigue model parameter distributions are themselves uncertain. A hierarchical Bayesian approach is adopted to account for the uncertainties in both the parameters and their distribution. Variables specifying the distribution of the fatigue model parameters are cast as hyperparameters whose uncertainty is modeled with a hyperprior distribution. Bayes' rule is used to determine the posterior hyperparameter distribution, given available data, thus specifying the probabilistic model. The Bayesian formulation provides an additional advantage by allowing the posterior distribution to be updated as new data becomes available through inspections. By updating the probabilistic model, uncertainty in the hyperparameters can be reduced, and the appropriate level of conservatism can be achieved. In this work, techniques for Bayesian inference and updating of probabilistic fatigue models for metallic components are developed. Both safe-life and damage-tolerant methods are considered. Uncertainty in damage rates, crack growth behavior, damage, and initial flaws are quantified. Efficient computational techniques are developed to perform the inference and updating analyses. The developed capabilities are demonstrated through a series of case studies.
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Galane, Lesiba Charles. "The risk parity approach to asset allocation." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/95974.

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Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: We consider the problem of portfolio's asset allocation characterised by risk and return. Prior to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, this important problem was tackled using mainly the Markowitz mean-variance framework. However, throughout the past decade of challenging markets, particularly for equities, this framework has exhibited multiple drawbacks. Today many investors approach this problem with a 'safety first' rule that puts risk management at the heart of decision-making. Risk-based strategies have gained a lot of popularity since the recent financial crisis. One of the 'trendiest' of the modern risk-based strategies is the Risk Parity model, which puts diversification in terms of risk, but not in terms of dollar values, at the core of portfolio risk management. Inspired by the works of Maillard et al. (2010), Bruder and Roncalli (2012), and Roncalli and Weisang (2012), we examine the reliability and relationship between the traditional mean-variance framework and risk parity. We emphasise, through multiple examples, the non-diversification of the traditional mean-variance framework. The central focus of this thesis is on examining the main Risk-Parity strategies, i.e. the Inverse Volatility, Equal Risk Contribution and the Risk Budgeting strategies. Lastly, we turn our attention to the problem of maximizing the absolute expected value of the logarithmic portfolio wealth (sometimes called the drift term) introduced by Oderda (2013). The drift term of the portfolio is given by the sum of the expected price logarithmic growth rate, the expected cash flow, and half of its variance. The solution to this problem is a linear combination of three famous risk-based strategies and the high cash flow return portfolio.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Ons kyk na die probleem van batetoewysing in portefeuljes wat gekenmerk word deur risiko en wins. Voor die 2007-2008 finansiele krisis, was hierdie belangrike probleem deur die Markowitz gemiddelde-variansie raamwerk aangepak. Gedurende die afgelope dekade van uitdagende markte, veral vir aandele, het hierdie raamwerk verskeie nadele getoon. Vandag, benader baie beleggers hierdie probleem met 'n 'veiligheid eerste' reël wat risikobestuur in die hart van besluitneming plaas. Risiko-gebaseerde strategieë het baie gewild geword sedert die onlangse finansiële krisis. Een van die gewildste van die moderne risiko-gebaseerde strategieë is die Risiko- Gelykheid model wat diversifikasie in die hart van portefeulje risiko bestuur plaas. Geïnspireer deur die werke van Maillard et al. (2010), Bruder and Roncalli (2012), en Roncalli and Weisang (2012), ondersoek ons die betroubaarheid en verhouding tussen die tradisionele gemiddelde-variansie raamwerk en Risiko- Gelykheid. Ons beklemtoon, deur middel van verskeie voorbeelde, die niediversifikasie van die tradisionele gemiddelde-variansie raamwerk. Die sentrale fokus van hierdie tesis is op die behandeling van Risiko-Gelykheid strategieë, naamlik, die Omgekeerde Volatiliteit, Gelyke Risiko-Bydrae en Risiko Begroting strategieë. Ten slotte, fokus ons aandag op die probleem van maksimering van absolute verwagte waarde van die logaritmiese portefeulje welvaart (soms genoem die drif term) bekendgestel deur Oderda (2013). Die drif term van die portefeulje word gegee deur die som van die verwagte prys logaritmiese groeikoers, die verwagte kontantvloei, en die helfte van die variansie. Die oplossing vir hierdie probleem is 'n lineêre kombinasie van drie bekende risiko-gebaseerde strategieë en die hoë kontantvloei wins portefeulje.
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Ghosh, Gregory. "Lifesafety Analysis in the Building Firesafety Method." Digital WPI, 2004. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/1106.

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"The purpose of this thesis is to demonstrate and enhance the technical basis of the procedure for evaluating lifesafety within the Building Firesafety Engineering Method (BFSEM). A framework for the analysis has been documented, but not extensively tested in a building situation. Hence, procedures to obtain the necessary input data and to evaluate that data needed to be developed. In addition, the general framework had to be tested rigorously enough to identify weaknesses. "
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Baade, Ingrid Annette. "Survival analysis diagnostics." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 1997.

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Books on the topic "Risk assessment mathematical models; fermentation mathematical models"

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Schmidli, Hanspeter. Characteristics of ruin probabilities in classical risk models with and without investment, Cox risk models and perturbed risk models. Århus, Denmark: University of Aarhus, Dept. of Theoretical Statistics, Institute of Mathematical Sciences, 2000.

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Mathematical methods of environmental risk modeling. Boston, USA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001.

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Quantitative operational risk models. Boca Raton: Taylor & Francis, 2012.

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Rachev, Svetlozar T. Advanced Stochastic Models, Risk Assessment, and Portfolio Optimization. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2008.

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Zhivetin, Vladimir. Banking system risk management: Mathematical modeling. Moscow: Institute for Risk Problems, 2012.

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Aven, Terje. Risk analysis. Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom: John Wiley & Sons, 2015.

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Zhivetin, Vladimir. Introduction to risks analysis. Moscow: In-t for Risk Problems, 2009.

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Zhivetin, Vladimir. Vvedenie v analiz riska. Moskva: Institut problem riska, 2008.

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Gorelik, V. A. Modeli ot︠s︡enki kollektivnogo i sistemnogo riska. Moskva: Vychislitelʹnyĭ t︠s︡entr im. A.A. Dorodnit︠s︡yna Rossiĭskoĭ akademii nauk, 2011.

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Zhivetin, Vladimir. Vvedenie v teorii︠u︡ riska (dinamicheskikh sistem). Moskva: In-t problem riska, 2008.

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Book chapters on the topic "Risk assessment mathematical models; fermentation mathematical models"

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Brannigan, Vincent, and Carol Smidts. "Risk Based Regulation Using Mathematical Risk Models." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management ’96, 721–25. London: Springer London, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3409-1_115.

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Hill, M. D. "Use of Mathematical Models in Risk Assessment and Risk Management." In Radionuclides in the Food Chain, 335–61. London: Springer London, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-1610-3_24.

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Wickramaratne, G. A. de S. "Application of Mathematical Dose-Response Models vs. Physiological Models in Risk Assessment in Reproductive Toxicology." In Risk Assessment of Prenatally-Induced Adverse Health Effects, 279–87. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-77753-0_21.

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Seo, Fumiko. "Multiple Risk Assessment with Random Utility Models in Probabilistic Group Decision Making." In Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 161–72. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-57311-8_13.

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Navrátil, Josef, Veronika Sadovská, and Irena Švarcová. "Health Risk Assessment of Combustion Products from Simulated Residential Fire." In Mathematical-Statistical Models and Qualitative Theories for Economic and Social Sciences, 15–23. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-54819-7_2.

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Biswas, Swarnava, Anoop Kumar Prasad, Debajit Sen, Dinesh Bhatia, and Moumita Mukherjee. "Comparative Study on Predictive Mathematical Models for Risk Assessment of nCOVID-19 Pandemic in India." In Lecture Notes in Bioengineering, 393–404. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6915-3_39.

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Caminade, Cyril. "How to model the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases?" In Climate, ticks and disease, 26–31. Wallingford: CABI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789249637.0004.

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Abstract This expert opinion provides an overview of mathematical models that have been used to assess the impact of climate change on ticks and tick-borne diseases, ways forward in terms of improving models for the recent context and broad guidelines for conducting future climate change risk assessment.
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"Mathematical Models of Chemical Transport and Fate." In Ecological Risk Assessment, 247–72. CRC Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781420012569-29.

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"Mathematical Models of Chemical Transport and Fate." In Ecological Risk Assessment, Second Edition. CRC Press, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781420012569.ch21.

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De Wrachien, D., and S. Mambretti. "Mathematical models in flood management: overview, laboratory tests and case study." In Flood Risk Assessment and Management, 11–22. WIT Press, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/978-1-84564-646-2/02.

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Conference papers on the topic "Risk assessment mathematical models; fermentation mathematical models"

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Razzaghi, Mehdi. "Teaching Statistical Models for Risk Assessment." In Bridging the Gap: Empowering and Educating Today’s Learners in Statistics. International Association for Statistical Education, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.52041/iase.icots11.t6c1.

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Risk analysis is used across many disciplines. Biological scientists use risk analysis to determine the chance of an adverse effect occurring. Engineers use it to assess the risk of structural failures. People in business and industry perform risk analysis to estimate profit and loss in decision making. Although there are many definitions of risk, the most accurate definition is based on probabilistic principles. To estimate risk quantitatively, a statistical model is used to describe the process and the associated risk is thereupon calculated. The underlying model and derivation of risk can lead to some non-trivial mathematical expressions. Here, we discuss challenges in teaching probabilistic risk assessment to researchers who are non-statisticians and non-mathematicians. Specific reference will be made to toxicological risk assessment.
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Zappalà, G., S. Bonamano, A. Madonia, G. Caruso, and M. Marcelli. "Microbiological risk assessment in a coastal marine environment through the use of mathematical models." In WATER POLLUTION 2012. Southampton, UK: WIT Press, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/wp120011.

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Schnabel, Freya, Jennifer Chun, Shira Schwartz, Amber Guth, Deborah Axelrod, Richard Shapiro, Karen Hiotis, and Julia Smith. "Abstract A29: Mathematical models are not the be-all and end-all for breast cancer risk assessment." In Abstracts: AACR Special Conference: Improving Cancer Risk Prediction for Prevention and Early Detection; November 16-19, 2016; Orlando, FL. American Association for Cancer Research, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1158/1538-7755.carisk16-a29.

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Acton, Michael R., Phil J. Baldwin, Tim R. Baldwin, and Eric E. R. Jager. "The Development of the PIPESAFE Risk Assessment Package for Gas Transmission Pipelines." In 1998 2nd International Pipeline Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc1998-2000.

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PIPESAFE is a knowledge based hazard and risk assessment package for gas transmission pipelines, which has been developed jointly by an international group of gas transmission companies. PIPESAFE has been developed from the BG (formerly British Gas) TRANSPIRE package, to produce an integrated assessment tool for use on PCs. which includes a range of improvements and additional models backed by large scale experimentation. This paper describes the development of the PIPESAFE package, and the formulation and validation of the mathematical models included within it.
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Matuzas, Vaidas, Juozas Augutis, and Eugenijus Uspuras. "Degradation Assessment in Complex Systems." In 14th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone14-89190.

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Components condition could change dynamically because of various dependencies existing in complex systems since usually not only physical connections exist in the system. Various processes (as degradation or wear out, reliability decrease, failures) affecting one component have influence to condition of other components as well. Current paper is devoted to the analysis and development of mathematical models to the reliability assessment of network systems. Degradation as the main process in the network systems is taken into account. The main attention in present work was paid to the mathematical description of the degradation spreading mechanism in network systems. Developed recursive mathematical model allows assess degradation in network systems during various time moments. Developed methods can be applied for assessment of various risk estimates of hazardous systems such as systems at nuclear power plants.
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Moskvichev, V. V., U. S. Postnikova, and O. V. Taseiko. "Cluster analysis and individual anthropogenic risk." In Spatial Data Processing for Monitoring of Natural and Anthropogenic Processes 2021. Crossref, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.25743/sdm.2021.54.88.063.

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Models and assessment methods of anthropogenic risk are analyzed at this article, general basis of mathematical approach for risk analysis is disclosed. Based on multivariate statistic methods, algorithm of analysis for Siberian territories safety is formulated, it allows to define acceptable level of risk for each territorial group (cities with population density more than 70 000, towns with population less than 70 000, and municipals areas).
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Zafirovski, Zlatko, Vasko Gacevski, Zoran Krakutovski, Slobodan Ognjenovic, and Ivona Nedevska. "Methodology for tunnel risk assessment using fault and event tree analysis." In 6th International Conference on Road and Rail Infrastructure. University of Zagreb Faculty of Civil Engineering, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5592/co/cetra.2020.1051.

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The intense demand and construction of tunnels is accompanied by uncertainties. The reason for appearance of uncertainties are the complex solutions and conditions for these structures. Location and dimensions are becoming more challenging, and the construction is predicted in complexed geological conditions, leading to application of new approaches, methodologies and technologies by the engineers. Most of the uncertainties and unwanted events in tunnelling occur in the construction phase, which generally leads to economic consequences and time losses. For easier handling of the uncertainties, they should be anticipated and studied within a separate part of each project. One of the newer approaches to dealing with uncertainties is hazard and risk assessment and defining ways to deal with them i.e. management. Hazards and risks can be analysed qualitatively and quantitatively. The quantitative analysis, examines the causes and consequences in more detail way and gives explanation of the dependencies. With the quantitative approach, a more valuable information for decision-making can be provided. There are various models and methods used for the quantification of hazards and risks. This paper presents a methodology in which the fault tree analysis and event tree analysis are used in combination to obtain quantitative results. The fault tree analysis is used for assessment of various hazards and the different ways and reasons that cause them. The event tree analysis is a method for assessing the possible scenarios, which follow after a certain hazard i.e. the consequences that may occur in the project. These trees represent graphic models combined with a mathematical (probabilistic) model, which give the probability of occurrence of the risks.
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Guo, Lingyun, and Markus Niffenegger. "An Evaluation of Probabilistic Integrity Assessment Codes." In ASME 2022 Pressure Vessels & Piping Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2022-84277.

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Abstract In recent years, a large number of failure assessment models (FAMs), like SINTAP, BS7910 and API 579 have been developed to evaluate the structural integrity of pipelines. Based on them, various software, such as PRO-LOCA, PROST, xLPR, etc, have been established to evaluate the safety and reliability of pipelines. However, which of these codes fit best the user’s requirements is a difficult problem because it depends on scientific as well as on personal criteria. Therefore, in this paper, we propose several multiple evaluation criteria to discuss the integrity assessment codes. Furthermore, we apply mathematical methods to evaluate the prediction performance (PP) of the codes PRO-LOCA and PROST. The PP covers seven criteria: correlation, multimodality, dispersion, risk, conservativeness, robustness and accuracy. The correlation, multimodality and dispersion reflect the stability of the predicted results, while risk, conservativeness, robustness and accuracy illustrate distributional location characteristics (DLC) of the prediction accuracy (PA).
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Fic Žagar, Petra, Tina Bregant, Matjaž Perc, Anja Goričan, Aleks Jakulin, Janez Žibert, Žiga Zaplotnik, et al. "COVID-19 Vigilance: Towards Better Risk Assessment and Communication During the Next Wave." In Values, Competencies and Changes in Organizations. University of Maribor Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18690/978-961-286-442-2.15.

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Since December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 infections have altered many aspects of our societies. Citizens were faced with circumstances to which even experts and scientists did not yet know the answers and were applying the scientific method to make daily steps of progress towards better understanding the threat and how to contain it. Within a year, several vaccines were produced to protect individuals from the virus, thereby resolving the most important medical problem. However, not just medical issues call for the application of the scientific method. The management of epidemics also can, and in fact should, benefit significantly from a science-based approach. The novel complexity of the situation left us torn between permissive and authoritarian approaches of containment, and it is still subject to debate what works best and why. In our contribution, we model the emerging complexity of the epidemics and propose a scientific-based data driven approach that aims to aid the decision makers in their focus on the most relevant issues and thus helping them to make informed and consistent decisions. The resulting monitoring and control system, termed COVID-19 vigilance, helps with risk assessment and communication during regional COVID-19 outbreaks. The system is based on the Cynefin decision complexity framework and the universal process model, and it uses several mathematical models that describe epidemic spreading. Different future scenarios are used to predict the impact of realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic outcomes, in turn allowing for a more efficient communication of involved risk.
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Pourghafari, Mohammad, Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad, Reza Alizadeh, Mojtaba Raheli Kaleibar, and Morteza Soleimani. "Deterministic Hazard Assessment for Petroleum Refinery Products Storage Tanks: Case Study of Tabriz Refinery." In ASME 2017 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2017-71139.

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The importance of safety regulations and risk assessments in the chemical process of industry has been doubled by the increasing number of accidents in petroleum storage facilities. Control of critical situations and conditions against risks require appropriate planning, collection of valid information of possible scenarios and utilization of proper assessment techniques. In this study, by combining numerical simulation techniques, mathematical and experimental data and utilization of commercial software, the risks of a Tabriz refinery gasoline tank (as a case study) are investigated for a total release of the reservoir scenario within a specified period of time, as the worst case. The effect of the environment temperature is evaluated on the progression of the scenario. Based on comparison of the results of numerical simulations of pool fire, and vapor cloud explosion with simulation results based on empirical-mathematical models, it can be concluded that, there are significant differences between the results in the vicinity of the boundary conditions; however, with increasing distance from the center of the accident point, this difference decreases markedly.
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