Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Risk-adjusted analysis'

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Investors accept that actual investment pertormance differs from anticipated pertormance. The difference between the two is attributed to investment risk. Professional investment managers charge significant fees for active investment management. Investors funding this industry should evaluate the risk-adjusted investment pertormance to determine if it justifies the associated costs. A number of research papers have presented various methods for adjusting investment pertormance for the risk assumed in the generation thereof. This study presents an overview of techniques available for measuring riskadjusted pertormance of listed equity related investments. The classic pertormance measures of Treynor, Sharpe and Jensen are discussed. Alternative ways of quantifying risk offer different methods for risk-adjusting periormance. This leads to the discussion of more modern approaches to risk-adjustment, such as the Sortino ratio and the Omega measure. The lack of risk-adjusted pertormance reporting within the South African investment management industry is highlighted. An overview of guidelines for risk-adjusted pertormance reporting is presented. As such, it is relevant to investment managers, policy makers of the industry and the financial press reporting on investment management. A comparison of risk-adjusted pertormance figures between unitised-, indexand direct equity investment approaches show that a simple direct equity investment strategy outpertorm on risk-adjusted basis for the five year period reviewed.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Beleggers aanvaar die feit dat gerealiseerde beleggings opbrengste van verwagte opbrengste verskil. Die verskil word aan beleggings risiko toegeskryf. Professionele beleggingsbestuurders hef aansienlike fooie om beleggings aktief te bestuur. Beleggers wat hierdie industrie befonds behoort die risiko-aangepaste beleggingsprestasie te evalueer ten einde vas te stel of dit die kostes regverdig wat daarmee gepaardgaan. 'n Aantal navorsingsverslae het reeds verskeie metodes voorgestel vir die aanpassing van beleggingsprestasie vir risiko aanvaar tydens die najaag van prestasie. Hierdie studie bied 'n oorsig van beskikbare tegnieke vir die meet van risiko aangepaste prestasie van genoteerde aandeel- en verwante beleggings. Die klassieke metodes van Treynor, Sharpe en Jensen word bespreek. Alternatiewe metodes om risiko te kwantifiseer bied verskillende metodes om prestasie vir risiko aan te pas. Dit lei tot die bespreking van meer moderne benaderings tot risiko aanpassing, soos die Sortino verhouding en die Omega maatstaf. Hierdie studie bring die tekort van risiko aangepaste prestasie verslaggewing in die Suid-Afrikaanse beleggingsbestuur industrie aan die lig. 'n Oorsig van riglyne vir risiko-aangepaste prestasie verslaggewing word gelewer. Die studie is gevolglik relevant vir beleggingsbestuurders, industrie beleidmakers en die finansiele pers wat oor beleggingsbestuur verslag doen. 'n Vergelyking van risiko-aangepaste opbrengs syfers tussen kollektiewe-. indeks- en direkte aandele beleggings benaderings lig uit dat 'n eenvoudige direkte aandele belegging strategie op 'n risiko-aangepaste basis oor die vyf jaar periode ondersoek, uitpresteer het.

Mestrado em Finanças
As métricas tradicionais, com base nas demonstrações financeiras, foram até à década de 80, a metodologia privilegiada para avaliar a performance bancária, mas estas demonstraram um afastamento significativo entre a realidade contabilística e económica, e como tal, insuficientes para análise à percepção se as intituições estariam ou não a criar valor para os seus accionistas e principalmente denotou-se que não estavam a incluir uma correcta gestão dos diferentes riscos a que as instituições financeiras estão expostas. Emergiram assim, novas métricas de avaliação e gestão da performance baseadas no valor ajustada ao risco, sendo a mais utilizada o Risk Adjusted Return on Capital (RAROC), em contraposição com estes indicadores mais tradicionais. Este trabalho é desenvolvido tendo por base este contexto. São descritas algumas das métricas tradicionais utilizadas, inferindo sobre as suas vantagens e desvantagens. E por fim, é efectuada uma introdução abrangente da métrica RAROC, adicionalmente acrescido de um estudo empiríco prático de implementação do modelo, como qual se pretende-se contribuir com uma possível abordagem de implementação e uma maior compreensão e adopção da medida RAROC. Conclui-se, que com o uso de modelos de avaliação e quantificação das rentabilidades ajustadas ao risco subjacente às operações bancárias, é possível a obtenção de decisões de crédito e alocação de capital mais consistente, eficientes e concretas, porque se evidenciam e corrigem as inconsistências verificadas entre os critérios tradicionais e os critérios que utilizam a componente de risco.
Until the 1980s, traditional metrics based on financial statements have been the primary methodology used to assess banking performance. However, such metrics have shown significant divergence between accounting and economic realities, therefore becoming inadequate to analyze the perception of institutions in terms of value creation for its shareholders and, most importantly, it has become clear that they weren't including a correct management of the several risks to which financial institutions are exposed. New value-based corporate performance assessment metrics have emerged, and risk-adjusted value-based management systems started to be implemented, as opposed to the more traditional indicators. Thus, the so-called RAPM - Risk-Adjusted Performance Measures arose. The dichotomy between accounting indicators and value-based indicators is the focus of this work, whose main objective is the study of the RAROC metric - Risk-Adjusted Return on Capital, to infer about its advantages and disadvantages. We intend to contribute with a possible implementation approach, to have a better understanding of and to adopt the RAROC methodology through a practical experiment which implements this framework. In conclusion, the use of risk-adjusted profitability assessment and measurement frameworks, with such risk being inherent to banking operations, proves to be extremely important, so that we can avert the inconsistencies shown by traditional and risk-based criteria.

Project control is essential to ensure that the investment on a project is providing the intended benefits and is valuable to the customers. Previous methods offer project performance monitoring and forecasting tools, but they lack accuracy and the associated techniques omit the project financial risk (any unplanned event that has an impact on schedule and budget); the main factor of project failure. Poor project execution, and particularly failure to control and accurately forecast the project performance, may lead to increased costs, upset customers and eventually loss of market share. These gaps have been filled in this study by the development of novel models that use statistical analysis of the previous project performance, including risk evaluation techniques. The proposed models succeeded in providing remarkably improved forecasts in three project dimensions: duration, cost and resources. The robustness of the models has been verified by testing them on real projects. The results show superiority in terms of accuracy and easy application compared to any existing method, proving that the risk inclusion provides improvement compared to previous studies. The most important features of the models are: risk-based adjustment of the forecasted values, periodic and completion forecasts, statistical processing and holistic approach. The greatest advancements have been made in the cost forecast, for which the risk adjustment inclusion is examined for the first time. The resources (man-hours) forecast is another pioneer element of the proposed models. All the above provide a complete image of the project status and paint the picture of future performance. The models results are fed in a Decision Support System, which highlights the overperforming and underperforming areas of the project. This confirms the proposition that the model results can be used to initiate restorative action. The contribution of this study to the project management field is easy-to-use and accurate models, which include the financial risk and facilitate the project manager’s decisions and actions. Anticipation of the project performance, by considering the risk, can result to significant time and cost savings, crucial for project success.

The mutual fund industry in Sweden has grown rapidly over the past years. Research has been made on the topic for over 50 years, however there are still uncertainties about the determinants of fund performance. The purpose of this study was to examine what determines the risk-adjusted performance of mutual equity funds available to Swedish investors.  A side-purpose was included to examine to what extent the Efficient Market Hypothesis holds in Sweden. A simple random sample was conducted where 500 equity funds were included. From Refinitiv/Thomson Reuters Eikon Datastream fund characteristics were downloaded. To find the abnormal return of mutual equity funds, a hybrid Fama-French Carhart factor model was used which includes both domestic Swedish factors and global factors. The model was used to calculate the yearly risk-adjusted performance for each fund using 12 months return. This was denominated Alpha which was used as the dependent variable in the regression models. Further, to determine the characteristics which affect risk-adjusted performance two multiple regression models with six independent variables and three control variables are constructed. Further, a one sample t-test was conducted to test the market efficiency for mutual funds available to Swedish investors. Eight statistical hypotheses were created and tested in which two found a significant result which were that alpha differs from zero and Total Expense Ratio determines the risk-adjusted performance.   To conclude, findings showed only the character Total Expense Ratio determines risk-adjusted performance of mutual equity funds available to Swedish investors. In conclusion the control variables year, geographical focus and currency affect the fund performance. The study is an interesting aspect for Swedish investors and fund managers since the study implies deeper knowledge about the mutual fund industry in Sweden and therefore should be concerned by the variable TER to earn abnormal returns. Further, the study contributes with a theoretical discussion in line with the results concerning Efficient Market Hypothesis, the Diversification Effect and Modern Portfolio Theory. Conclusions are drawn based on our result that the Efficient Market Hypothesis does hold in the Swedish fund market. Although only one character determines the risk-adjusted performance and average investor should choose funds that follow the market, based on the skill level of average investors.

The review of the ethical funds literature shows the significant growth of the Socially Responsible Investments (SRI) in the last few decades. The increase of the interest towards SRI indicates that ethical issues have become more essential for the investors. However the number of surveys reveals that financial performance remains of an important concern for the socially responsible investors. Therefore the benchmark analysis of the expected returns and management fees of the ethical mutual funds is chosen as a topic for this thesis research. The risk-adjusted measures are used to analyze and compare the performance of the ethical and non-ethical mutual funds in United Kingdom. The analysis does not indicate the significant difference in the expected returns between the two groups of funds. However this study concludes that on average ethical funds charge higher management fees. Thus investing in ethical funds is more costly but gives about the same returns as investing in conventional funds.

This thesis used the events of the 2007 financial crisis as a means of being able to add to the research already done on South African unit trusts. The objective was to study the risk-adjusted performance of South African general equity unit trusts against the market during the period between 2005 and 2014. This period took into account the bull market preceding the financial crisis, the market crash of 2007 and the subsequent market recovery that followed. Data was obtained online through the I-Net BFA data base and included 161 general equity unit trusts that contained a full data set. In addition to the general equity unit trusts, the Satrix40 was studied to compare a passive unit trust against those that are actively managed. The 10 year Government bond was also used as a risk-free rate to add to the comparisons of performance results. The Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen measures were applied to the data with the results adding more support to the opinions that markets are fairly efficient and active investment strategies are being challenged by consistently well performing passive investments. Throughout the duration of the study, taking into account the varying economic cycles, the Satrix40 passive investment showed the best average overall return on simple return calculations as well as during the risk-adjusted measurements. In support of active investment management, unit trusts showed their best relative performance figures during the period of the financial crisis. This suggested that active financial managers were able to make the active calls necessary to weather the storm of the financial crisis. While the study did have its limitations, the results it produced are intended to offer investors further knowledge in enabling them to make more educated investment decisions in the future.

In recent times, the popularity of hedge funds has undoubtedly increased. There are shared opinions on whether hedge funds generate absolute rates of returns and whether they provide a strong alternative investment to mutual funds. This thesis aims to examine whether hedge funds with different investment strategies create absolute returns and if certain investment strategies outperform others. This thesis compares hedge funds risk-adjusted rate of return towards mutual funds, such as mutual funds, to see if certain investment strategies are more lucrative than the corresponding investments in terms of excess returns to corresponding indices. An econometric approach was applied to search for significant differences in risk-adjusted returns of hedge funds in contrast to mutual funds. Our results show that Swedish hedge funds do not generate as high risk-adjusted returns as Swedish mutual funds. In regard to the best performing hedge fund strategy, the results are inconclusive. Also, we do not find any evidence that hedge funds violate the effective market hypothesis.
Hedgefonder har den senaste tiden ökat i popularitet. Samtidigt finns det delade meningar huruvida hedgefonder genererar absolutavkastning och om de fungerar som bra alternativ till traditionella fonder. Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka huruvida hedgefonder skapar absolutavkastning samt om det finns investeringsstrategier som presterar bättre än andra. Denna uppsats jämför hedgefonders riskjusterade avkastning med traditionella fonder, för att på sätt se om en viss investeringsstrategi ar mer lukrativ i termer av överavkastning i förhållande till motsvarande index. Vi har använt ekonometriska metoder för att söka efter statistiskt signifikanta skillnader mellan avkastningen för hedgefonder och traditionella fonder. Våra resultat visar att svenska hedgefonder inte genererar högre risk-justerade avkastningar än svenska aktiefonder. Våra resultat visar inga signifikanta skillnader vad gäller avkastning mellan olika strategier. Slutligen finner vi heller inga bevis för att hedgefonder går emot den effektiva marknadshypotesen

During the past few decades, social responsible investing (SRI) has rapidly grown to become a renowned investment strategy. Because of the contradictory findings on how successful this strategy is in terms of financial return, the aim of this thesis is to compare the performance of sustainable and conventional funds in four different geographical areas during the last three years. With the use of regression analysis, the correlation between the Portfolio Sustainability Score of a fund, which is a Morningstar-provided rating that represents how well a fund incorporates ESG, and its risk-adjusted return is determined. The final results of this analysis varies among the four geographical regions. The correlation between the two variables is positive in USA and Asia ex-Japan, whereas a negative relationship is found in Europe and the Nordic region. However, the obtained findings are not of statistical significance, implying that there is no difference between the risk-adjusted returns of sustainable versus conventional funds.
Under de senaste årtionden har hållbara investeringar ökat och på senare tid även blivit en väletablerad investeringsstrategi. Då tidigare studier inom området uppvisat motstridiga resultat gällande hur effektiv denna strategi är inom värdeskapande, fokuserar denna rapport på att klargöra ifall hållbara alternativt vanliga fonder är fördelaktiga utifrån ett finansiellt perspektiv. Mer specifikt undersöks fyra geografiska områden över en tidsperiod på tre år. Genom regressionsanalys bestäms korrelationen mellan en fonds Portfolio Sustainability Score, ett betyg som erhålls av Morningstar som representerar hur väl den specifika fonden inkorporerar ESG, och dess riskjusterade avkastning. De slutgiltiga resultaten av denna analys varierar i de fyra geografiska områdena. I USA och Asien där Japan exkluderas är korrelationen positiv medan en negativ korrelation råder i Europa och Norden. Dock är resultaten inte av statistisk signifikans vilket indikerar att det inte är någon skillnad i den riskjusterade avkastningen mellan hållbara och vanliga fonder.

The greater competition and concentration in South Africa's financial sector has put South African banks under more constraints and led to questioning of their present performance. With a greater demand for financial services and more complains about the low quality of financial services and charges being too high, there has been increasing debate about how efficient South African banks really are. This study discusses performance evaluation, the traditional financial and non-financial measures used, and their limitations. The concept of bank efficiency is also briefly discussed, including scale efficiency, scope efficiency, X-efficiency, cost efficiency, standard profit efficiency, alternative profit efficiency and the risk component of bank efficiency. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was chosen as the most appropriate method to estimate the scale efficiency and technical efficiency of 37 districts (and 10 provinces) of one of the largest banks in South Africa. 'DEA involves solving linear programming problems that generate a non-parametric, piecewise linear convex frontier that envelops the input and output data relative to which cost is minimized' (Fare et al., 1985b:193). The intermediation approach was used incorporating both the input- and output-orientated approach under variable returns to scale. The analyses indicated that 19 districts out of the 37 districts were not at least once fully technically efficient during the 22 months (input- and output-orientated). The same results were found with regard to scale efficiency: 17 districts out of the 37 districts were not at least once fully scale efficient (input-orientated) and 19 districts out of the 37 districts were not at least once fully scale efficient (output-orientated), during the 22 months. Synergy was found in 6 provinces out of the 10 provinces (input- and output-orientated).
Thesis (M.Com. (Risk Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

Siu, Tsz Hang.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2008.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 59-61).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Abstract --- p.i
Acknowledgement --- p.iii
Chapter 1 --- Introduction and Literature Review --- p.1
Chapter 2 --- Data and Methodology --- p.5
Chapter 2.1 --- Portfolio Formation --- p.8
Chapter 2.2 --- Delisting --- p.11
Chapter 2.3 --- Rebalancing --- p.11
Chapter 2.4 --- Performance Measurement --- p.12
Chapter 3 --- Results --- p.16
Chapter 3.1 --- Daily Portfolio Returns --- p.16
Chapter 3.2 --- CAPM and Fama French Model --- p.18
Chapter 3.3 --- Cumulative Returns --- p.22
Chapter 3.4 --- Over Different Time Periods --- p.22
Chapter 3.5 --- Analysis on Capital Market Theory --- p.24
Chapter 3.6 --- Explanations --- p.27
Chapter 3.6.1 --- Overconfidence --- p.27
Chapter 3.6.2 --- Anchoring --- p.28
Chapter 3.6.3 --- A Simple Model and Smoothing Effect --- p.29
Chapter 3.6.4 --- Securities Selection --- p.32
Chapter 3.6.5 --- Transaction Costs --- p.32
Chapter 4 --- Conclusions --- p.33
Chapter A --- Proof --- p.36
Chapter B --- Tables and Figures --- p.40
Bibliography --- p.59

碩士
國立中興大學
農藝學系所
101
The last process of plant breeding for a new cultivar usually goes through regional experiments. The stability analysis of yield is one of the important issues for selecting an optimum cultivar. A number of statistics have been proposed to measure the stability. But several frequently used statistics, like coefficient of variation, selecting stable cultivars but simultaneously with low yield. Stability analysis has not being developed a new concept to select a cultivar with high profit. To solve this problem, this thesis develops a new statistics with risk-adjusting concept, considering stability and high-yielding performance of cultivar simultaneously.

The master's thesis deals with modeling Value at Risk model adjusted by liquid- ity. For this purpose we use quantile regression analysis and liquidity proxies. We find out that Garman-Klass volatility estimator can be very useful in pe- riod 2000-2008 for the small and mid-size semiconductor companies but not in period 2008-2015. The NASDAQ composite Garman-Klass volatility is useful for all semiconductor companies for period 2008-2015. We might conclude that from the outbreak of the crisis returns of all semiconductor companies might depend on movement of NASDAQ composite index. We use Amihud and Roll measures as the liquidity proxies but the results are not persuasive regardless or size of companies and period we analyzed. JEL Classification G11, G14, G17, G18, G32 Keywords liquidity, value at risk, quantile regression Author's e-mail michalnd@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail barunik@utia.cas.cz Abstrakt Diplomová práce se zabývá modelováním hodnoty v risku upravenou o likvid- itu. Pro tuto analýzu jsme použili kvantilovou regresi a proměnné indikující likviditu. Došli jsme k závěru, že Garman-Klass volatility estimator je velmi užitečný pro malé a středně velké firmy operující na trhu s polovodiči a to v ob- dobí 2000-2007, nikoliv však období 2008-2015. NASDAQ composite...

碩士
國立虎尾科技大學
工業管理系工業工程與管理碩士班
105
The purpose of this study is to examine the clusters of Jakarta Islamic Index stocks based on the stock’s performance which is measured using risk-adjusted return for twenty-one semi-annual periods from 2006 to 2016. Indonesia as the most populous Muslim-majority country in the world holds an enormous market for the development of the sharia finance industry. The inherent philosophy of Islamic finance that promotes risk-sharing instrument and prohibits interest bearing business has its benefits in the modern capital market. The results show that the number of optimal clusters is 3 clusters. Moreover, this study also shows an alternative grouping of Jakarta Islamic Index stocks based on its risk-adjusted return that investors can benefit from it, supporting their decision to invest in the Indonesia sharia finance industry

碩士
東吳大學
財務工程與精算數學系
100
Currency derivative securities interlocking, although the risk can be spread, but also to goods and commodities between the risk-linked nature more obvious, complicated financial instruments and asset prices, resulting in bank losses accumulated by, and even endanger bank capital soundness. Banking liquidity crisis spread into the soundness of the crisis, not but make the financial institutions pressure doubled, and therefore sub-Financial Crisis impact on the scale are significant and influence during the long-term, from 2007 to 2010 between the global financial crisis, which evolved into a global economic crisis, prompting market participants and the Commissioner of Banking institutions need to explore the prudential liquidity management issues. So while in business expansion, capital provision against risks has become a measure of bank performance need to focus on future issues. Data envelopment analysis estimated that the mother does not need any parameters, do not assume that a function of input and output relationship between the parameters of law and does not produce in the use of the bias will produce, in assessing the efficiency and effectiveness and reliability can be said on the use of very convenient. In this study, the risk of performance factors as whether to join the empirical object. Source data for the period 2009 and 2010 seasons the past two years more, want to provide for the future owners of the competent authorities and the assessment of future performance and risk comparison of reference. It is found that Bank of Taiwan, Hua Nan Commercial Bank joined with the performance after significant changes in risk to South Bank and First Bank, for example, does not consider the risk when the first bank operating expenses 61% higher, performance worse than the South Bank 13.29%; but After consideration of the actual risk, market risk, the first bank in the South Bank's commitment to higher than 276.03%, representing a silver future market movements influenced by, and therefore the value of risk-adjusted performance than the South Bank of the performance difference -73.78%, the gap more significant, so this does add more to distinguish the risks banks take risks and bring the performance capabilities. In addition, the Bank of Taiwan, the state agency due to the policy with the relevant factors into account, so efficiency is usually poor, before adding risk rankings are about 4 to 5. However, after consideration of risk, ranking jumped in between 3 to 4, are front-end banking. How to reduce risk and risk profile will be the reference for all banks to improve performance; and can provide risk-adjusted performance is indeed a more accurate measure of bank performance basis.

Die studie vergelyk die prestasie van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie met die van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie binne die raamwerk van die arbitrasie-prysbepalingsteorie (APT) op die nywerheidsindeks van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs (JA). Die periode van die studie is oor twee tydperke, naamlik Januarie 1970 tot September 1987 en Januarie 1989 tot Junie 1997. Die langtermyntendens van die nywerheidsindeks en APT-faktore is bepaal deur die beste nie-reglynige model vir elke tydreeks te vind. Reglynige meervoudige stapsgewyse regressie-ontleding is gebruik om die bewegings van die nywerheidsindeks rondom die langtermyntendens te voorspel. Die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore en die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling is as moontlike voorspellers gebruik. Gegrond hierop is beslissingslyne ontwik:kel wat gebruik is vir die implementering van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie. Die resultate van die studie is die volgende: • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APTfaktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 6, 41 persent en 0, 71 persent b6 die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 10,40 persent en 1,04 persent b6 die van 'n koop-enhou- strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. Die belangrikste gevolgtrekking van die studie is dat die APT en 'n tydsberekeningstrategie teoreties en prakties versoenbaar is op die JA. Aanbevelings vir toekomstige navorsing is die volgende: ( 1) sistematiese risikofaktore, anders as makro-ekonomiese faktore, behoort identifiseer te word wat die voorspellingswaarde van die faktore in die tweede tydperk van die studie kan verhoog; (2) elke stap van die model wat ontwikkel is, behoort op elke indeks van die JA toegepas te word om die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie toegepas op elkeen van die indekse met die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie te vergelyk; en (3) die invloed van transaksiekoste en dividende op die potensiele voordele van tydsberekening moet bepaal word.
The study compares the performance of a buy-and-hold strategy with that of a markettiming strategy in the framework of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) applied to the industrial index of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study period is divided into two parts, namely January 1970 to September 1987 and January 1989 to June 1997. The long-term trend of the industrial index and every APT factor is determined by finding the best nonlinear model for each time series. Linear multiple stepwise regression analysis, with the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors, is used to forecast the movement of the industrial index around its long-term trend. Decision lines were developed to implement a market-timing strategy. The results of the study are as follows: • Where the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the risk-adjusted return of a markettiming strategy was 6, 41 percent and 0, 71 percent higher than that of a buyand- hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. • Where the lagged time series of the first-order difference of the long-term trend error term of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the riskadjusted return of the market-timing strategy was 10,40 percent and 1,04 percent higher than that of a buy-and-hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. The main conclusion of the study is that the APT and a market-timing strategy are theoretically and practically reconcilable on the JSE. The main recommendations of the study are the following: (1) systematic risk factors, other than macroeconomic factors, should be identified in order to increase the forecasting value of these factors in the second period of the study; (2) each step of the model developed in this study should be repeated on every index of the JSE; and (3) the influence of transaction costs and dividends on the potential benefits of a market-timing strategy should be determined.
Business Management
DCom (Sakebestuur)