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Journal articles on the topic 'Retrodiction'

To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: Retrodiction.

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 20 February 2023

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1

Barnett, Stephen M., David T. Pegg, John Jeffers, and Ottavia Jedrkiewicz. "Atomic retrodiction." Journal of Physics B: Atomic, Molecular and Optical Physics 33, no. 16 (August 2, 2000): 3047–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0953-4075/33/16/309.

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2

Barnett, Stephen M., John Jeffers, and David T. Pegg. "Quantum Retrodiction: Foundations and Controversies." Symmetry 13, no. 4 (April 2, 2021): 586. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sym13040586.

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Prediction is the making of statements, usually probabilistic, about future events based on current information. Retrodiction is the making of statements about past events based on current information. We present the foundations of quantum retrodiction and highlight its intimate connection with the Bayesian interpretation of probability. The close link with Bayesian methods enables us to explore controversies and misunderstandings about retrodiction that have appeared in the literature. To be clear, quantum retrodiction is universally applicable and draws its validity directly from conventional predictive quantum theory coupled with Bayes’ theorem.

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3

Ben-Menahem, Shahar. "Spin-measurement retrodiction." Physical Review A 39, no. 4 (February 1, 1989): 1621–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/physreva.39.1621.

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4

Pegg, David T., and Stephen M. Barnett. "Retrodiction in quantum optics." Journal of Optics B: Quantum and Semiclassical Optics 1, no. 4 (August 1, 1999): 442–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1464-4266/1/4/314.

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5

Hu, Cheng-Qiu, Jun Gao, Lu-Feng Qiao, Ruo-Jing Ren, Zhu Cao, Zeng-Quan Yan, Zhi-Qiang Jiao, Hao Tang, Zhi-Hao Ma, and Xian-Min Jin. "Experimental Test of Tracking the King Problem." Research 2019 (December 4, 2019): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.34133/2019/3474305.

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In quantum theory, the retrodiction problem is not as clear as its classical counterpart because of the uncertainty principle of quantum mechanics. In classical physics, the measurement outcomes of the present state can be used directly for predicting the future events and inferring the past events which is known as retrodiction. However, as a probabilistic theory, quantum-mechanical retrodiction is a nontrivial problem that has been investigated for a long time, of which the Mean King Problem is one of the most extensively studied issues. Here, we present the first experimental test of a variant of the Mean King Problem, which has a more stringent regulation and is termed “Tracking the King.” We demonstrate that Alice, by harnessing the shared entanglement and controlled-not gate, can successfully retrodict the choice of King’s measurement without knowing any measurement outcome. Our results also provide a counterintuitive quantum communication to deliver information hidden in the choice of measurement.

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6

Steinitz, Yuval. "Prediction Versus Retrodiction in Mill." International Philosophical Quarterly 34, no. 4 (1994): 481–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5840/ipq199434443.

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7

Barnett, Stephen M., David T. Pegg, and John Jeffers. "Bayes' theorem and quantum retrodiction." Journal of Modern Optics 47, no. 11 (September 2000): 1779–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09500340008232431.

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8

Johnstone, Graeme E., Johannes Herrnsdorf, Martin D. Dawson, and Michael J. Strain. "Efficient Reconstruction of Low Photon Count Images from a High Speed Camera." Photonics 10, no. 1 (December 23, 2022): 10. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/photonics10010010.

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Challenging imaging applications requiring ultra-short exposure times or imaging in photon-starved environments can acquire extremely low numbers of photons per pixel, (<1 photon per pixel). Such photon-sparse images can require post-processing techniques to improve the retrieved image quality as defined quantitatively by metrics including the Structural Similarity Index Measure (SSIM) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) with respect to the ground truth. Bayesian retrodiction methods have been shown to improve estimation of the number of photons detected and spatial distributions in single-photon imaging applications. In this work, we demonstrate that at high frame rates (>1 MHz) and low incident photon flux (<1 photon per pixel), image post processing can provide better grayscale information and spatial fidelity of reconstructed images than simple frame averaging, with improvements in SSIM up to a factor of 3. Various other image post-processing techniques are also explored and some of which result in a similar quality of image reconstruction to Bayesian retrodiction, with lower computational load. Image reconstructions using Bayesian Retrodiction or bilateral filtering are of comparable quality to frame averaging, as measured by the Structural Similarity Index Measure, when using less than 40% of the photon flux.

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9

Speirits, Fiona C., Matthias Sonnleitner, and Stephen M. Barnett. "From retrodiction to Bayesian quantum imaging." Journal of Optics 19, no. 4 (March 3, 2017): 044001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2040-8986/aa5ccf.

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10

Sonnleitner, Matthias, John Jeffers, and Stephen M. Barnett. "Image retrodiction at low light levels." Optica 2, no. 11 (November 4, 2015): 950. http://dx.doi.org/10.1364/optica.2.000950.

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11

Jeffers, John, Stephen Barnett, and David Pegg. "Retrodiction with two-level atoms: atomic previvals." Journal of Modern Optics 49, no. 7 (June 2002): 1175–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09500340110100592.

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12

SHIROKOV, M. I. "CAUSALITY PRINCIPLE AND RETRODICTION IN QUANTUM PHYSICS." International Journal of Modern Physics A 06, no. 21 (September 10, 1991): 3843–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217751x91001866.

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The causality principle (CP) states that the cause can only be inside the past light cone of an effect. The principle is used in choosing retarded solutions to field equations and also in the Bogoliubov derivation of dispersion relations. However, using CP leads to the following problem: CP determines a “time arrow” in microphysics and shuts out other ways of explaining time irreversibility in Nature (based on statistical physics, cosmology, etc). It is shown that CP can be replaced by the condition that we consider only prediction problems, sometimes together with the use of a principle which is weaker than CP: the cause cannot be outside an effect’s light cones. The retrodiction problem and verification of CP in quantum mechanics are discussed.

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13

Bodt, Timotheus A., and Johann‐Mattis List. "Testing the predictive strength of the comparative method: an ongoing experiment on unattested words in Western Kho‐Bwa languages." Papers in Historical Phonology 4 (June 20, 2019): 22–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2218/pihph.4.2019.3037.

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Although it is well‐known to most historical linguists that the comparative method could in principle be used to predict hitherto unobserved words in genetically related languages, the task of word prediction is rarely discussed in the linguistic literature. Here, we introduce 'reflex retrodiction' as a new task for historical linguistics and report on an ongoing experiment in which we use a computer‐assisted workflow to retrodict reflexes for so far unobserved words in eight varieties of Western Kho‐Bwa (a subgroup of Sino‐Tibetan). Since, at the time of writing this report, the experiment is still ongoing, we do not report concrete results, but instead provide an estimate of our expectations by testing the performance of the computational part of our workflow on existing language data. Our results suggest that reflex retrodiction has the potential of becoming a useful tool for historically oriented fieldwork.

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14

Ghelichkhan, S., H.-P. Bunge, and J. Oeser. "Global mantle flow retrodictions for the early Cenozoic using an adjoint method: evolving dynamic topographies, deep mantle structures, flow trajectories and sublithospheric stresses." Geophysical Journal International 226, no. 2 (March 18, 2021): 1432–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab108.

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SUMMARY During the Cenozoic, the Earth experienced multiple first-order geological events that are likely mantle flow related. These include the termination of large-scale marine inundation in North America in the Palaeocene, the late Tertiary rise of Africa relative to other continents and the long-wavelength tilting of Australia since the late Cretaceous, which occurred when the continent approached the southeast Asia subduction systems on its northward passage from Antartica. Here we explore a suite of eight high-resolution, compressible, global mantle flow retrodictions going back to 50 Ma, using an adoint method with $\approx$670 million finite elements. These retrodictions show for the first time that these events emerge jointly as part of global Cenozoic mantle flow histories. Our retrodictions involve the dynamic effects from an upper mantle low-viscosity zone, assimilate a past plate-motion model for the tangential surface velocity field, probe the influence of two different present-day mantle state estimates derived from seismic tomography, and acknowledge the rheological uncertainties of dynamic Earth models by taking in four different realizations for the radial mantle viscosity profile, two of which were published previously. We find the retrodicted mantle flow histories are sensitive to the present-day mantle state estimate and the rheological properties of the Earth model, meaning that this input information is testable with inferences gleaned from the geological record. For a deep mantle viscosity of $1.7\times 10^{22}$ Pa s and a purely thermal interpretation of seismic structure, lower mantle flow velocities exceed 7 cm yr–1 in some regions, meaning they are difficult to reconcile with the existence of a hotspot reference frame. Conversely, a deep mantle viscosity of $10^{23}$ Pa s yields modest flow velocities (< 3 cm yr–1 ) and stability of deep mantle heterogeneity for much of the retrodiction time, albeit at the expense that African uplift is delayed into the latest Neogene. Retrodictions allow one to track material back in time from any given sampling location, making them potentially useful, for example, to geochemical studies. Our results call for improved estimates on non-isostatic vertical motion of the Earth’s surface—provided, for instance, by basin analysis, seismic stratigraphy, landform studies, thermochronological data or the sedimentation record—to constrain the recent mantle flow history and suggest that mantle flow retrodictions may yield synergies across different Earth science disciplines.

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15

Aw, Clive Cenxin, Francesco Buscemi, and Valerio Scarani. "Fluctuation theorems with retrodiction rather than reverse processes." AVS Quantum Science 3, no. 4 (December 2021): 045601. http://dx.doi.org/10.1116/5.0060893.

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16

JEFFERS, JOHN, STEPHEN BARNETT, and DAVID PEGG. "Retrodiction as a tool for micromaser field measurements." Journal of Modern Optics 49, no. 5-6 (April 2002): 925–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09500340110110069.

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17

Fehlmann, René, and Huw C. Davies. "Misforecasts of Synoptic Systems: Diagnosis via PV Retrodiction." Monthly Weather Review 125, no. 9 (September 1997): 2247–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2247:mossdv>2.0.co;2.

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18

Barnett, Stephen M., David T. Pegg, John Jeffers, and Ottavia Jedrkiewicz. "Master Equation for Retrodiction of Quantum Communication Signals." Physical Review Letters 86, no. 11 (March 12, 2001): 2455–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.86.2455.

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19

Ban, M. "Quantum Retrodiction in Non-Equilibrium Thermo Field Dynamics." International Journal of Theoretical Physics 46, no. 1 (September 22, 2006): 184–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10773-006-9228-7.

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20

Krishanth, Krishnan, Ratnasingham Tharmarasa, Thiagalingam Kirubarajan, Pierre Valin, and Eric Meger. "Prediction and retrodiction algorithms for path-constrained targets." IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems 50, no. 4 (October 2014): 2746–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/taes.2014.120716.

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21

Peres, Asher. "Time asymmetry in quantum mechanics: a retrodiction paradox." Physics Letters A 194, no. 1-2 (October 1994): 21–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0375-9601(94)00744-a.

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22

Kalev, A., A. Mann, and M. Revzen. "Quantum-mechanical retrodiction through an extended mean king problem." EPL (Europhysics Letters) 104, no. 5 (December 1, 2013): 50008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/104/50008.

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23

Feng, Pengming, Wenwu Wang, Syed Mohsen Naqvi, and Jonathon Chambers. "Adaptive Retrodiction Particle PHD Filter for Multiple Human Tracking." IEEE Signal Processing Letters 23, no. 11 (November 2016): 1592–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/lsp.2016.2611138.

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24

Jedrkiewicz, O., R. Loudon, and J. Jeffers. "Retrodiction for coherent communication with homodyne or heterodyne detection." European Physical Journal D 39, no. 1 (April 11, 2006): 129–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjd/e2006-00081-7.

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25

Jones, Jason, and Harold Pashler. "Is the mind inherently forward looking? Comparing prediction and retrodiction." Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 14, no. 2 (April 2007): 295–300. http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/bf03194067.

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26

Bao, Han, Junlei Duan, Shenchao Jin, Xingda Lu, Pengxiong Li, Weizhi Qu, Mingfeng Wang, et al. "Spin squeezing of 1011 atoms by prediction and retrodiction measurements." Nature 581, no. 7807 (May 2020): 159–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2243-7.

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27

Scroggie, Andrew J., and John Jeffers. "A Closed-System Approach to Quantum Retrodiction in Open Systems." International Journal of Theoretical Physics 47, no. 7 (December 4, 2007): 1809–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10773-007-9623-8.

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28

Aharonov, Yakir, and Lev Vaidman. "Comment on “Time asymmetry in quantum mechanics: a retrodiction paradox”." Physics Letters A 203, no. 2-3 (July 1995): 148–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0375-9601(95)00396-k.

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29

Cohen, O., and B. J. Hiley. "Retrodiction in quantum mechanics, preferred Lorentz frames, and nonlocal measurements." Foundations of Physics 25, no. 12 (December 1995): 1669–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02057882.

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30

BARRETT, MARTIN, and ELLIOTT SOBER. "Is Entropy Relevant to the Asymmetry Between Retrodiction and Prediction?" British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 43, no. 2 (June 1, 1992): 141–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bjps/43.2.141.

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31

Grine, Frederick E., and David J. Daegling. "Functional morphology, biomechanics and the retrodiction of early hominin diets." Comptes Rendus Palevol 16, no. 5-6 (August 2017): 613–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crpv.2017.01.005.

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32

Ellison, Christopher J., John R. Mahoney, and James P. Crutchfield. "Prediction, Retrodiction, and the Amount of Information Stored in the Present." Journal of Statistical Physics 136, no. 6 (September 2009): 1005–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10955-009-9808-z.

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33

D’Assunção Barros, José. "The Problem of Historical retrodiction: criticism from Nietzsche to Walter Benjamin concerns." Problemata 6, no. 2 (October 15, 2015): 18–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.7443/problemata.v6i2.21919.

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34

Koch, W. "Fixed-interval retrodiction approach to Bayesian IMM-MHT for maneuvering multiple targets." IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems 36, no. 1 (2000): 2–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/7.826308.

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35

Boudreau, Bernard P., and Yiming Luo. "Retrodiction of secular variations in deep-sea CaCO3 burial during the Cenozoic." Earth and Planetary Science Letters 474 (September 2017): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.06.005.

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36

Dury, G. H. "Attainable standards of accuracy in the retrodiction of palaeodischarge from channel dimensions." Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 10, no. 3 (May 1985): 205–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/esp.3290100303.

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37

Liu, Youda, Xue Wang, Yanchi Liu, and Sujin Cui. "Data-Aware Retrodiction for Asynchronous Harmonic Measurement in a Cyber-Physical Energy System." Sensors 16, no. 8 (August 18, 2016): 1316. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s16081316.

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38

Schäfer-Neth, C., and K. Stattegger. "Meltwater pulses in the northern North Atlantic: retrodiction and forecast by numerical modelling." Geologische Rundschau 86, no. 2 (August 28, 1997): 492–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s005310050156.

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39

Gardner, James N. "The physical constants as biosignature: an anthropic retrodiction of the Selfish Biocosm Hypothesis." International Journal of Astrobiology 3, no. 3 (July 2004): 229–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1473550404002162.

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Goal 7 of the NASA Astrobiology Roadmap states: ‘Determine how to recognize signatures of life on other worlds and on early Earth. Identify biosignatures that can reveal and characterize past or present life in ancient samples from Earth, extraterrestrial samples measured in situ, samples returned to Earth, remotely measured planetary atmospheres and surfaces, and other cosmic phenomena.’ The cryptic reference to ‘other cosmic phenomena’ would appear to be broad enough to include the possible identification of biosignatures embedded in the dimensionless constants of physics. The existence of such a set of biosignatures – a life-friendly suite of physical constants – is a retrodiction of the Selfish Biocosm (SB) hypothesis. This hypothesis offers an alternative to the weak anthropic explanation of our indisputably life-friendly cosmos favoured by (1) an emerging alliance of M-theory-inspired cosmologists and advocates of eternal inflation like Linde and Weinberg, and (2) supporters of the quantum theory-inspired sum-over-histories cosmological model offered by Hartle and Hawking. According to the SB hypothesis, the laws and constants of physics function as the cosmic equivalent of DNA, guiding a cosmologically extended evolutionary process and providing a blueprint for the replication of new life-friendly progeny universes.

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40

Kang, Kathleen, Dana Schneider, Stefan R. Schweinberger, and Peter Mitchell. "Dissociating neural signatures of mental state retrodiction and classification based on facial expressions." Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience 13, no. 9 (August 22, 2018): 933–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/scan/nsy061.

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41

Siegel, Peter E. "Demographic and Architectural Retrodiction: An Ethnoarchaeological Case Study in the South American Tropical Lowlands." Latin American Antiquity 1, no. 4 (December 1990): 319–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/971813.

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This paper focuses on the demographic and architectural organization of a South Amerindian tropical-forest community. The household, as the most important social, economic, and behavioral unit in this society, is reflected in the strong quantitative relations between the floor areas of the various structure types and the associated number of occupants. In contrast, floor area/number of occupants relations at the nuclear-family level are quantitatively weak. Since the aboriginal household was also the most important economic and demographic social unit in the South American tropics, the present study may be used to estimate prehistoric settlement population levels using excavated data. As such, this study encourages the use of the direct-historical approach by archaeologists working in the lowlands of South America.

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42

Liu, Qiang, Xin Wang, Nageswara S. V. Rao, Katharine Brigham, and B. V. K. Vijaya Kumar. "Effect of Retransmission and Retrodiction on Estimation and Fusion in Long-Haul Sensor Networks." IEEE/ACM Transactions on Networking 24, no. 1 (February 2016): 449–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tnet.2014.2363841.

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43

DENBIGH, K. G. "Comment on Barrett and Sober's Paper on the Relevance of Entropy to Retrodiction and Prediction." British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 45, no. 2 (June 1, 1994): 709–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bjps/45.2.709.

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44

Ferreira, Vagner, Samuel Andam-Akorful, Ramia Dannouf, and Emmanuel Adu-Afari. "A Multi-Sourced Data Retrodiction of Remotely Sensed Terrestrial Water Storage Changes for West Africa." Water 11, no. 2 (February 25, 2019): 401. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11020401.

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Remotely sensed terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC) from the past Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission cover a relatively short period (≈15 years). This short span presents challenges for long-term studies (e.g., drought assessment) in data-poor regions like West Africa (WA). Thus, we developed a Nonlinear Autoregressive model with eXogenous input (NARX) neural network to backcast GRACE-derived TWSC series to 1979 over WA. We trained the network to simulate TWSC based on its relationship with rainfall, evaporation, surface temperature, net-precipitation, soil moisture, and climate indices. The reconstructed TWSC series, upon validation, indicate high skill performance with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 11.83 mm/month and coefficient correlation of 0.89. The validation was performed considering only 15% of the available TWSC data not used to train the network. More so, we used the total water content changes (TWCC) synthesized from Noah driven global land data assimilation system in a simulation under the same condition as the GRACE data. The results based on this simulation show the feasibility of the NARX networks in hindcasting TWCC with RMSE of 8.06 mm/month and correlation coefficient of 0.88. The NARX network proved robust to adequately reconstruct GRACE-derived TWSC estimates back to 1979.

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45

Kong, Xianghuai, Jian Liu, Yuansheng Du, Chun Wen, and Gang Xu. "Seismic geomorphology of buried channel systems in the western South Huanghai Sea: retrodiction for paleoenvironments." Acta Oceanologica Sinica 30, no. 1 (January 2011): 47–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13131-011-0090-y.

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46

Mermin, N. David. "Limits to Quantum Mechanics as a Source of Magic Tricks: Retrodiction and the Bell-Kochen-Specker Theorem." Physical Review Letters 74, no. 6 (February 6, 1995): 831–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/physrevlett.74.831.

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47

Tsuji, Leonard J. S., Zachariah General, Stephen R. J. Tsuji, Evelyn Powell, Konstantin Latychev, Jorie Clark, and Jerry X. Mitrovica. "Akimiski Island, Nunavut, Canada: The Use of Cree Oral History and Sea-Level Retrodiction to Resolve Aboriginal Title." ARCTIC 73, no. 4 (December 27, 2020): 421–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.14430/arctic71481.

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On 1 April 1999, Akimiski Island of the western James Bay region of northern Ontario, Canada, was included in the newly formed territory of Nunavut, Canada—an Inuit-dominated territory—even though the Inuit had never asserted Aboriginal title to the island. By contrast, the Omushkegowuk Cree of the western James Bay region have asserted Aboriginal title to Akimiski Island. The Government of Canada by their action (or inaction) has reversed the onus of responsibility for proof of Aboriginal title from the Inuit to the Cree. In other words, the Government of Canada did not follow their own guidelines and the common-law test for proof of Aboriginal title. In this paper, we documented and employed Cree oral history as well as a sea-level retrodiction (based on state-of-the-art numerical modeling of past sea-level changes in James Bay), which incorporated a modified ICE-6G ice history and a 3-D model of Earth structure, to establish that criterion 2 of the test for Aboriginal title has now been fully met. In other words, Cree traditional use and occupancy of Akimiski Island was considered sufficiently factual at the time of assertion of sovereignty by European nations. As all the criteria of the common-law test for proof of Aboriginal title in Canada, with respect to Akimiski Island, have now been addressed, the Cree have sufficient basis to initiate the process of a formal land claim.

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48

Merino, Barbara D., and Alan G. Mayper. "ACCOUNTING HISTORY AND EMPIRICAL RESEARCH." Accounting Historians Journal 20, no. 2 (December 1, 1993): 237–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.2308/0148-4184.20.2.237.

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This paper examines historical methodology and suggests ways accounting history may be made more relevant to contemporary accounting researchers. First there is a brief discussion of the “traditional” accounting history method, the documentary model, and an examination of history methodologies that offer alternatives modes of inquiry. This includes the pattern model and rhetorical analysis. This discussion is brief and focused on only issues examined in subsequent discussion of the empirical research. The discussion of the empirical research, including behavioral research, focuses on three issues: retrodiction, with examples concerning securities legislation; belief transference, with examples concerning the demand for auditing; and methodological transference, with examples from the behavioral literature including a discussion of the importance of historical context and sensitivity. The objectives are [1] to show how all researchers need to tell more plausible stories and how historical analyses can clarify and enhance understanding of the complex environment in which accountants function, [2] to suggest fruitful areas for future accounting historical/empirical/behavioral research and [3] to issue a call for diversity, tolerance, and a free exchange of ideas—stressing these as values that cannot be separated from accountants' research activity.

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49

Peres, Asher. "Reply to the comment of Y. Aharonov and L. Vaidman on “Time asymmetry in quantum mechanics: a retrodiction paradox”." Physics Letters A 203, no. 2-3 (July 1995): 150–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0375-9601(95)00395-j.

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50

Foster, Kevin L., and Mikel D. Petty. "Estimating the tactical impact of robot swarms using a semi-automated forces system and design of experiments methods." Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology 18, no. 3 (May 9, 2021): 247–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/15485129211008532.

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Abstract:

Militaries are developing autonomous robots to conduct missions such as reconnaissance and surveillance. Some of those robots are intended to operate in swarms. Because operational robot swarms are not yet available, doctrine developers will initially use constructive entity-level combat models to develop and test tactics for robot swarms. Design of experiments methods and retrodiction of the 1991 Battle of 73 Easting between US and Iraqi forces were used to calibrate a semi-automated forces system. The calibrated combat model was then used to estimate the tactical impact of a notional Iraqi robot swarm conducting reconnaissance and surveillance in that battle. The calibration ensured that the model’s parameters were accurate, enabling a reliable estimate of the swarm’s tactical impact. Additionally, the design of experiments methods produced estimates of the interaction of the robot swarm’s effect with the technologies of the combatants’ weapon systems. Simulation trials and statistical analysis showed that the tactical benefits of an Iraqi robot swarm were overshadowed by the advantage provided by the US forces’ thermal sights. However, additional trials indicated that if both sides had been equipped with optical sights only, the early warning provided to the Iraqi forces by a robot swarm could have had a significant effect on the battle’s outcome.

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