Academic literature on the topic 'Relief agencies'

Organizational development is a central purpose of evaluation. Disasters and other emergency situations carry with them significant implications for evaluation, given that they are often unanticipated and involve multiple relief efforts on the part of INGOs, governments and international organizations. Two particularly common reasons for INGOs to evaluate disaster relief efforts are 1) accountability to donors and 2) desire to enhance the organization s response capacity. This thesis endeavors briefly to review the state of the evaluation field for disaster relief so as to reflect on how it needs to go forward. The conclusion is that evaluation of disaster relief efforts is alive and well. Though evaluation for accountability seems fairly straightforward, determining just how the evaluation influences the organization and beyond is not. Evaluation use has long been a central thread of discussion in evaluation theory, with the richer idea of evaluation influence only recently taking the stage. Evaluation influence takes the notion of evaluation use a few steps further by offering more complex, subtle, and sometimes unintentional ways that an evaluation might positively better a situation. This study contributes to the very few empirical studies of evaluation influence by looking at one organization in depth and concluding that evaluation does influence in useful ways.

Reacting to the Great Depression, Texans abandoned the philosophy of rugged individualism and turned to their state and federal governments for leadership. Texas's Governor Miriam Ferguson resultantly created the state's first relief agency, which administered all programs including those federally funded. Because the Roosevelt administration ordered state participation in and immediate implementation of the CCC, a multi-governmental, multi-departmental administrative alliance involving state and federal efforts resulted, which, because of scholars' preferences for research at the federal level, often is mistakenly described as a decentralized administration riddled with bureaucratic shortcomings. CCC operations within Texas, however, revealed that this complicated administrative structure embodied the reasons for the CCC's well-documented success.

Thesis (M. of Military Art and Science)--U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, 2007.
"A thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Military Art and Science, General Studies." Title from cover page of PDF file (viewed: May 29, 2008).

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1987.
Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 148-151).

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Stakeholder topics are one of the main ideas in development thinking that have been introduced in the last few years, certainly a concept of the 1990s. The use of stakeholder language and the application of analysis, planning and management methods directed towards different interest groups are increasingly becoming commonplace, especially amongst some anglophone donors, Three main general applications of stakeholder ideas have been developed in the literature: - the involvement of Stakeholders in Participatory methods of Development intended to achieve sustainable poverty relief; - the use of Stakeholder Analysis to assure the implementation soundness of development projects; and - its use as a means of understanding the many economic interests and processes that relate to "systems" for Natural Resource Management, this understanding to be applied in a number of developmentally beneficial uses.Naturally the three strands of applying stakeholder ideas draw from each other. This paper looks at the emergence of thinking and applications from them all, leading towards a more full consideration of the application of Stakeholder Analysis in the planning of projects of various kinds.
ID-7098D - Project Planning and Financial Analysis

AbstractTo understand the role that NGOs’ representation of Syrian displacement plays in global governance before getting into the visual analysis it is important reflect upon the aspirations of emergency organizations. How do relief agencies intend, perceive and present their role to the public? Are they interested in participating or influencing global governance? Do they consider their role as promoters of universal values or technical agents performing a specific task? Answering these questions is important to unpack their distinctiveness and the different ways in which different NGOs conceive and perform their mission in the international arena. In this sense, it is extremely interesting to look at how relief organizations accommodate their humanitarian role and the humanitarian principles within contexts that are inescapably highly political (e.g., situations of violence, displacement, political contestation or belligerent occupation). Not only do NGOs work within a complex web of political interests, international relations and systems of power, but, for better or worse, their humanitarian and advocacy actions have practical political implications. The investigation of how different organizations negotiate their relationship with politics allows us to better understand where each positions itself within the heated debate around the interrelations of humanitarianism and politics discussed in the first chapter.

AbstractThe investigation of the four relief agencies’ organizational models – undertaken by combining analysis of websites, strategic documents and policy guidelines with fieldwork and interviews with NGO staffers – has shown the different ways in which each organization works. Exploration of the different sectors of intervention has highlighted the different roles NGOs want to have not only in the lives of their beneficiaries but more generally in the governance system of their communities. As illustrated in Chap. 10.1007/978-3-030-71143-6_5, the spectrum of activities is quite wide. Save the Children focuses on education and child protection (mainly through psychosocial support) complementary advocacy to secure policy change to enable a better world for children; Oxfam prioritizes ‘giving voice’ to the voiceless, water and sanitation, psychosocial support, legal counselling, combined also with a vigorous advocacy and influencing program to create lasting solutions to injustice and poverty. CARE has a similar focus on voice and empowerment especially for women and girls. Its gender transformative approach informs its work on protection, responses to gender-based violence) distribution of relief items, and, to a lesser extent, water and sanitation. As with Save the Children and Oxfam, CARE sets store by advocacy for policy reforms to end poverty and gender inequality. For its part, MSF operations focused on medical assistance, ranging from primary health care, surgery, mental health and psychosocial support, and medical evacuation. For MSF, belief in the power of témoignage has driven denunciations of those who hinder humanitarian action or divert aid and also critique of the wider disfunctionalities of the humanitarian system itself.

AbstractIn this chapter we consider the afterlife of the remains of unidentified migrants who have died while attempting to cross the Mediterranean from Albania and North Africa to Italy. Drawing on insights from long-term, multi-sited field research, we outline paths taken by human remains and consider their multiple agencies and distributed personhood through the relational modalities with which they are symbolically and materially engaged at different scales of significance. The rising number of migrant deaths related to international crossings worldwide, especially in the Mediterranean, has stimulated a large body of scholarship, which generally relies upon a hermeneutics of secular transitional justice and fraternal transnationalism. We explore an alternative approach by focusing on the material and ritual afterlife of unidentified human remains at sea, examining the effects they have on their hosting environment. The treatment of dead strangers (across the double threshold constituted by the passage from life to death on the one hand and the rupture of exile on the other) raises new questions for the anthropology of death. We offer an interpretation of both ad hoc and organized recovery operations and mortuary practices, including forensic identification procedures, and collective and single burials of dead migrants, as acts of hospitality. Hosting the dead operates at different scales: it takes the politically charged form of memorialization at the levels of the state and the local community; however, while remembrance practices for dead strangers emphasize the latter’s status as a collective category, forensic technologies of remembrance are directed toward the reconstruction of (in)dividual personhood. These ritual and technological processes of memorialization and re-attachment together awaken ghosts of Italian fascism and colonialism.

This chapter details variation in relief officials' efforts to use their own funds to expel destitute individuals from the nation. Relief agencies across the country helped repatriate immigrants during the Great Depression. However, the scale, scope, and character of these efforts differed drastically depending on the target of repatriation. Relief officials both inside and outside the Southwest used their own funds to repatriate Mexicans who requested relief assistance. These officials conducted mass-removal programs, often using coercive practices, targeting Mexicans and Mexican Americans alike, and placing greater emphasis on the economic savings than on the effects on those repatriated. Where European immigrants were concerned, however, repatriation programs developed on a more limited “casework basis,” where the needs and wishes of the individual were paramount.

Although battling cancer, family deaths, and the financial crises of the Depression, Weil continued her fight to establish a welfare state. Her platforms included the Goldsboro Bureau for Social Service and the North Carolina Conference for Social Service. Weil served in New Deal agencies as chair of City Emergency Relief Committee, working for a relief program to provide social services and public works projects for the unemployed. She also supported Margaret Sanger's birth control agenda and, like many progressives, endorsed eugenics not as a racial policy but to relieve the financial burden of generations of dependent families on public relief.

This chapter discusses the start of the relief effort for the Jews of post-war France, Belgium, and the Netherlands after the Second World War. The initial strategy devised by the American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee (JDC) and other international Jewish organizations in 1945 in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands was to leave relief efforts to others. While working to secure Jewish representation on local aid committees that had been created by Christian charities, the Red Cross, and individual political parties, they would piggyback on the numerous relief efforts that Jewish communities in the three countries had themselves established during the war or had initiated at the time of liberation. Where possible, they would also demand that national governments assist Jewish survivors. In the absence of support from private aid groups and despite their weakened condition, a variety of local Jewish community agencies did what they could to aid survivors. Ultimately, in the first two decades after the war, American and other international organizations would be only partially successful in restructuring the Jewish communities of western Europe.

Decision-making that must be supported by specific information or reasoning extensively relies on decision support systems, capable of handling data from multiple sources. Most decision-makers seek to find cost-effective solutions, i.e. mainly focusing on most efficient solutions in economic terms, consequently, it is the economic information that is basically processed and offered for decision-making process by decision support systems, along with economic models. Though businesses focus on the most rational solutions to the management process, other criteria also play an important role, including time costs, confidentiality, and friendly relations with service users, customers, partners and government agencies, etc., thus management decision-making may successfully rely on legal decision support systems. The article presents an overview of legal decision support systems and their potential as regards their application in addressing a wide array of business management issues. The article also focuses on the selection and screening of indicators critical to decision-making, and offers a potential structure for management decision- making.

One of the paradigmatic problems that frequently arise within a piping flexibility analysis is need to quantify the effect of local stresses created by supports and restraints attachments. Over the past twenty years, concerns have been identified by both regulatory agencies in the nuclear power industry and others in the process and chemicals industries concerning the effect of various stiff clamping arrangements on the expected life of the pipe and piping components. In many of the commonly utilized geometries and arrangements of pipe clamps, it has previously been shown by the author that some pipe clamp anchors can be treated as an axisymmetric elasticity problem. These pipe anchors may be simplified considering the axisymmetric stress and deformation determination within a hollow cylinder (pipe) that is subjected to appropriate boundary and loading conditions, per se. One of the geometries previously considered and addressed is comprised of two pipe clamps that are bolted tightly to the pipe and affixed to a modified shoe-type structure. The shoe is employed for the purpose of providing a theoretically immoveable base that can be easily attached either by bolting or welding within a pipe rack. Because the Bessel function and Fourier solution relies on the summation of a large number of terms (i.e., a series type solution), convergence becomes an issue when time is of the essence. This paper addresses the two variables that need to be controlled to obtain acceptable results with the series type solution.

Aim/Purpose: In many OECD countries, emergency response relies on volunteers, and while emergency incidents are increasing, volunteer numbers are declining. Volunteer turnover occurs at various stages of the volunteering life cycle (i.e., recruitment, training, socialisation, performance, and retirement), the socialisation stage has the greatest impact on organisations, as it occurs after the allocation of resources and training, but before the investment is returned through volunteer performance. There is sparse literature exploring this stage. Background: Addressing the gap, this paper presents a model of volunteer retention, predicting acceptance, social-expulsion, or self-exclusion, based on social fit. Methodology: The model is based on an inductive examination of the processes of volunteer turnover during socialisation of emergency service volunteers. Using a grounded theory approach, focus groups and interviews were conducted with 157 volunteers across seven locations. Contribution: This model contributes to theory by categorising volunteer turnover according to the stages of the volunteering life cycle, and to practice by drawing attention to the need to consider social fit prior to investing in new volunteer training and understanding the role of leadership intervention pre- and post-training. Findings: The study identifies the processes of volunteer turnover and predicts that volunteers either stay or leave based on the level of their social fit. Recommendations for Practitioners: Strategies are developed to guide leaders on the best approaches to maintain and retain volunteer workers in Emergency Service agencies Recommendation for Researchers: The model contributes to theory by providing an empirically based description of the processes involved in volunteer retention and turnover and offers guidelines for increasing volunteer retention in emergency services and other volunteer organisations across Australia and around the world. Impact on Society: Increased retention benefits the emergency service organisation in terms of return on the investment of volunteer training, regarding sustainability of human resources, and in regard to increasing diversity among its volunteers. In turn, this retention also benefits volunteers, and the entire community, as it gains access to a greater number of emergency services providers. Future Research: Future research should focus on recreating this study in other countries and in different emergency service contexts.

UNHCR estimates that the average time spent by a refugee in a camp is 10 years, while the average refugee camp remains for 26 years. WASH (water, sanitation and hygiene) is a crucial component of humanitarian response and longer-term recovery. Humanitarian agencies and host governments face many challenges in protracted situations and complex long-term humanitarian crises. One key issue is how water supplies should be managed in the long term. Who is best placed to operate and manage WASH services and which delivery model is the most viable? At the end of 2019, there were 15.7 million refugees in protracted situations, representing 77% of all refugees. This report takes stock of the various alternative service delivery models, to enable humanitarian and development agencies to work together to smooth the transition from emergency relief to sustainable services.

Background Opioid analgesia has become the mainstay for acute pain management in the postoperative setting. However, the use of opioid medications comes with significant risks and side effects. Due to increasing numbers of prescriptions to those with chronic pain, opioid medications have become more expensive while becoming less effective due to the buildup of patient tolerance. The idea of opioid-free analgesic techniques has rarely been breached in many hospitals. Emerging research has shown that opioid-sparing approaches have resulted in lower reported pain scores across the board, as well as significant cost reductions to hospitals and insurance agencies. In addition to providing adequate pain relief, the predicted cost burden of an opioid-free or opioid-sparing approach is significantly less than traditional methods. Methods The following groups were considered in our inclusion criteria: those who speak the English language, all races and ethnicities, male or female, home medications, those who are at least 18 years of age and able to provide written informed consent, those undergoing inpatient or same-day surgical procedures. In addition, our scoping review includes the following exclusion criteria: those who are non-English speaking, those who are less than 18 years of age, those who are not undergoing surgical procedures while admitted, those who are unable to provide numeric pain score due to clinical status, those who are unable to provide written informed consent, and those who decline participation in the study. Data was extracted by one reviewer and verified by the remaining two group members. Extraction was divided as equally as possible among the 11 listed references. Discrepancies in data extraction were discussed between the article reviewer, project editor, and group leader. Results We identified nine primary sources addressing the use of ketamine as an alternative to opioid analgesia and post-operative pain control. Our findings indicate a positive correlation between perioperative ketamine administration and postoperative pain control. While this information provides insight on opioid-free analgesia, it also revealed the limited amount of research conducted in this area of practice. The strategies for several of the clinical trials limited ketamine administration to a small niche of patients. The included studies provided evidence for lower pain scores, reductions in opioid consumption, and better patient outcomes. Implications for Nursing Practice Based on the results of the studies’ randomized controlled trials and meta-analyses, the effects of ketamine are shown as an adequate analgesic alternative to opioids postoperatively. The cited resources showed that ketamine can be used as a sole agent, or combined effectively with reduced doses of opioids for multimodal therapy. There were noted limitations in some of the research articles. Not all of the cited studies were able to include definitive evidence of proper blinding techniques or randomization methods. Small sample sizes and the inclusion of specific patient populations identified within several of the studies can skew data in one direction or another; therefore, significant clinical results cannot be generalized to patient populations across the board.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.