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Miyashiro, Eliane Shizue. "Modelos de regressão beta e simplex para análise de proporções." Universidade de São Paulo, 2008. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/45/45133/tde-06112009-224039/.
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Diversos estudos compreendem a análise de variáveis definidas no intervalo (0, 1), como porcentagens ou proporções. Os modelos mais adequados são os de regressão baseados nas distribuições beta e simplex. Neste trabalho, apresentamos o modelo de regressão beta proposto por Ferrari & Cribari-Neto (2004) e desenvolvemos o modelo de regressão simplex. Definimos um resíduo para o modelo de regressão simplex, muito útil na análise de diagnóstico, a partir do trabalho de Espinheira, Ferrari & Cribari-Neto (2008). Apresentamos uma forma geral para algumas medidas de diagnóstico, que podem ser aplicadas para os dois modelos. Avaliamos os modelos de regressão beta e simplex por meio de duas aplicações a dados reais, utilizando essas medidas.Many studies consider the analysis of variables restricted to the interval (0, 1), as percentages and proportions. The most recommended models are based upon the beta and simplex distributions. In this work, we present the beta regression model proposed by Ferrari and Cribari-Neto (2004) and develop the simplex regression model. We propose a residual for the simplex regression model, which is very useful for the diagnostic analysis, based upon the work of Espinheira et al. (2008). We generalize some diagnostic techniques that can be applied to both models. We evaluate the beta and simplex models by two applications to real data, using those techniques.
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Forslind, Fanni. "The Effect of Immigration on Income Distribution : A Comparative Study of Ordinary Least Squares and Beta Regression." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-433098.
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The purpose of this study is to estimate the relationship between income inequality and immigration in Sweden. To do so, data from the data base Kolada with observations from all 290 municipalities in Sweden is used. As a proxy for income distribution the Gini coefficient is used and as a proxy for immigration the share of foreign born of working age is used. The model also controls for income tax, education level and unemployment level. The dependent variable the Gini coefficient is bounded by a unit interval and it is therefore not possible to simply run a linear regression. Such a model could potentially predict outside the interval. To properly estimate the relationship two approaches are made. Firstly a model is estimated with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) after the dependent variable is transformed on to the real line through log-odds. Then a model is estimated using beta regression. The study concludes that there is a statistically significant positive correlation between income inequality and immigration in Sweden. The OLS estimated model shows that a 1 unit increase in immigration, on average increases the log-odds of 0.28336 units, ceteris paribus. Beta regression provides perhaps more intuitive results. If immigration increases with 1% the income inequality increases with on average 0.1046%, ceteris paribus. Because of the easier interpretation, among other things, beta regression is determined to be a better estimation method in this study.
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Cribari-Neto, Francisco, and Achim Zeileis. "Beta Regression in R." Department of Statistics and Mathematics x, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2009. http://epub.wu.ac.at/726/1/document.pdf.
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The class of beta regression models is commonly used by practitioners to model variables that assume values in the standard unit interval (0, 1). It is based on the assumption that the dependent variable is beta-distributed and that its mean is related to a set of regressors through a linear predictor with unknown coefficients and a link function. The model also includes a precision parameter which may be constant or depend on a (potentially different) set of regressors through a link function as well. This approach naturally incorporates features such as heteroskedasticity or skewness which are commonly observed in data taking values in the standard unit interval, such as rates or proportions. This paper describes the betareg package which provides the class of beta regressions in the R system for statistical computing. The underlying theory is briefly outlined, the implementation discussed and illustrated in various replication exercises.Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
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LEAL, ALTURO Olivia Lizeth. "Nonnested hypothesis testing inference in regression models for rates and proportions." Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 2017. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/24573.
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DISSERTAÇÃO Olivia Lizeth Leal Alturo.pdf: 2450256 bytes, checksum: 8d29b676eaffcb3c5bc1b78a8611b9f8 (MD5)Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-07T21:17:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTAÇÃO Olivia Lizeth Leal Alturo.pdf: 2450256 bytes, checksum: 8d29b676eaffcb3c5bc1b78a8611b9f8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-16
Existem diferentes modelos de regressão que podem ser usados para modelar taxas, proporções e outras variáveis respostas que assumem valores no intervalo unitário padrão, (0,1). Quando só uma classe de modelos de regressão é considerada, a seleção do modelos pode ser baseada nos testes de hipóteses usuais. O objetivo da presente dissertação é apresentar e avaliar numericamente os desempenhos em amostras imitas de testes que podem ser usados quando há dois ou mais modelos que são plausíveis, são não-encaixados e pertencem a classes de modelos de regressão distintas. Os modelos competidores podem diferir nos regressores que utilizam, nas funções de ligação e/ou na distribuição assumida para a variável resposta. Através de simulações de Monte Cario nós estimamos as taxas de rejeição nulas e não-nulas dos testes sob diversos cenários. Avaliamos também o desempenho de um procedimento de seleção de modelos. Os resultados mostram que os testes podem ser bastante úteis na escolha do melhor modelo de regressão quando a variável resposta assume valores no intervalo unitário padrão.
There are several different regression models that can be used with rates, proportions and other continuous responses that assume values in the standard unit interval, (0,1). When only one class of models is considered, model selection can be based on standard hypothesis testing inference. In this dissertation, we develop tests that can be used when the practitioner has at his/her disposal more than one plausible model, the competing models are nonnested and possibly belong to different classes of models. The competing models can differ in the regressors they use, in the link functions and even in the response distribution. The finite sample performances of the proposed tests are numerically eval-uated. We evaluate both the null and nonnull behavior of the tests using Monte Cario simulations. The results show that the tests can be quite useful for selecting the best regression model when the response assumes values in the standard unit interval.
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Persson, Inger. "Essays on the Assumption of Proportional Hazards in Cox Regression." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala : Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis : Univ.-bibl. [distributör], 2002. http://publications.uu.se/theses/91-554-5208-6/.
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Crumer, Angela Maria. "Comparison between Weibull and Cox proportional hazards models." Kansas State University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/8787.
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Master of ScienceDepartment of Statistics
James J. Higgins
The time for an event to take place in an individual is called a survival time. Examples include the time that an individual survives after being diagnosed with a terminal illness or the time that an electronic component functions before failing. A popular parametric model for this type of data is the Weibull model, which is a flexible model that allows for the inclusion of covariates of the survival times. If distributional assumptions are not met or cannot be verified, researchers may turn to the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model. This model also allows for the inclusion of covariates of survival times but with less restrictive assumptions. This report compares estimates of the slope of the covariate in the proportional hazards model using the parametric Weibull model and the semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the slope. Properties of these models are discussed in Chapter 1. Numerical examples and a comparison of the mean square errors of the estimates of the slope of the covariate for various sample sizes and for uncensored and censored data are discussed in Chapter 2. When the shape parameter is known, the Weibull model far out performs the Cox proportional hazards model, but when the shape parameter is unknown, the Cox proportional hazards model and the Weibull model give comparable results.
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Maier, Marco J. "DirichletReg: Dirichlet Regression for Compositional Data in R." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2014. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4077/1/Report125.pdf.
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Dirichlet regression models can be used to analyze a set of variables lying
in a bounded interval that sum up to a constant (e.g., proportions, rates,
compositions, etc.) exhibiting skewness and heteroscedasticity, without
having to transform the data.
There are two parametrization for the presented model, one using the common
Dirichlet distribution's alpha parameters, and a reparametrization of the
alpha's to set up a mean-and-dispersion-like model.
By applying appropriate link-functions, a GLM-like framework is set up that
allows for the analysis of such data in a straightforward and familiar way,
because interpretation is similar to multinomial logistic regression.
This paper gives a brief theoretical foundation and describes the
implementation as well as application (including worked examples) of
Dirichlet regression methods implemented in the package DirichletReg (Maier,
2013) in the R language (R Core Team, 2013). (author's abstract)Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
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Galvis, Soto Diana Milena 1978. "Bayesian analysis of regression models for proportional data in the presence of zeros and ones = Análise bayesiana de modelos de regressão para dados de proporções na presença de zeros e uns." [s.n.], 2014. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/306682.
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Orientador: Víctor Hugo Lachos DávilaTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matemática Estatística e Computação Científica
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Resumo: Dados no intervalo (0,1) geralmente representam proporções, taxas ou índices. Porém, é possível observar situações práticas onde as proporções sejam zero e/ou um, representando ausência ou presença total da característica de interesse. Nesses casos, os modelos que analisam o efeito de covariáveis, tais como a regressão beta, beta retangular e simplex não são convenientes. Com o intuito de abordar este tipo de situações, considera-se como alternativa aumentar os valores zero e/ou um ao suporte das distribuições previamente mencionadas. Nesta tese, são propostos modelos de regressão de efeitos mistos para dados de proporções aumentados de zeros e uns, os quais permitem analisar o efeito de covariáveis sobre a probabilidade de observar ausência ou presença total da característica de interesse, assim como avaliar modelos com respostas correlacionadas. A estimação dos parâmetros de interesse pode ser via máxima verossimilhança ou métodos Monte Carlo via Cadeias de Markov (MCMC). Nesta tese, será adotado o enfoque Bayesiano, o qual apresenta algumas vantagens em relação à inferência clássica, pois não depende da teoria assintótica e os códigos são de fácil implementação, através de softwares como openBUGS e winBUGS. Baseados na distribuição marginal, é possível calcular critérios de seleção de modelos e medidas Bayesianas de divergência q, utilizadas para detectar observações discrepantes
Abstract: Continuous data in the unit interval (0,1) represent, generally, proportions, rates or indices. However, zeros and/or ones values can be observed, representing absence or total presence of a carachteristic of interest. In that case, regression models that analyze the effect of covariates such as beta, beta rectangular or simplex are not appropiate. In order to deal with this type of situations, an alternative is to add the zero and/or one values to the support of these models. In this thesis and based on these models, we propose the mixed regression models for proportional data augmented by zero and one, which allow analyze the effect of covariates into the probabilities of observing absence or total presence of the interest characteristic, besides of being possivel to deal with correlated responses. Estimation of parameters can follow via maximum likelihood or through MCMC algorithms. We follow the Bayesian approach, which presents some advantages when it is compared with classical inference because it allows to estimate the parameters even in small size sample. In addition, in this approach, the implementation is straightforward and can be done using software as openBUGS or winBUGS. Based on the marginal likelihood it is possible to calculate selection model criteria as well as q-divergence measures used to detect outlier observations
Doutorado
Estatistica
Doutora em Estatística
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Johnson, Edward P. "Applying Bayesian Ordinal Regression to ICAP Maladaptive Behavior Subscales." Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2007. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd2121.pdf.
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Pereira, Gustavo Henrique de Araujo. "Modelos de regressão beta inflacionados truncados." Universidade de São Paulo, 2012. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/45/45133/tde-14082012-123751/.
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Os modelos de regressão beta e beta inflacionados conseguem ajustar adequadamente grande parte das variáveis do tipo proporção. No entanto, esses modelos não são úteis quando a variável resposta não pode assumir valores no intervalo (0,c) e assume o valor c com probabilidade positiva. Variáveis relacionadas a algum tipo de pagamento limitado entre dois valores, quando estudadas em relação ao seu valor máximo, possuem essas características. Para ajustar essas variáveis, introduzimos a distribuição beta inflacionada truncada (BIZUT), que é uma mistura de uma distribuição beta com suporte no intervalo (c,1) e uma distribuição trinomial que assume os valores zero, um e c. Propomos ainda um modelo de regressão para as situações em que a variável resposta tem distribuição BIZUT. Admitimos que todos os parâmetros da distribuição podem variar em função de variáveis preditoras. Além disso, o modelo permite que o parâmetro conhecido c varie entre as unidades populacionais. Para esse modelo são desenvolvidos diversos aspectos inferenciais, são obtidos resultados para as situações em que c é variável e são conduzidos estudos de simulação de Monte Carlo. Além disso, discutimos análise de resíduos, desenvolvemos análise de influência local e realizamos uma aplicação a dados reais de cartão de crédito.The beta regression model or the inflated beta regression model may be a reasonable choice to fit a proportion in most situations. However, they do not fit well variables that do not assume values in the open interval (0,c), 0 < c < 1 and assume the c value with positive probability. Variables related to a kind of double bounded payment amount when studied as a proportion of the maximum payment amount have this feature. For these variables, we introduce the truncated inflated beta distribution (TBEINF). This proposed distribution is a mixture of the beta distribution bounded in the open interval (c,1) and a trinomial distribution that assumes the values zero, one and c. This work also proposes a regression model where the response variable is TBEINF distributed. The model allows all the unknown parameters of the conditional distribution of the response variable to be modeled as functions of explanatory variables. Moreover, the model allows nonconstant known parameter c across population units. For this model, some inferential aspects are developed, some results when c is not constant are obtained and Monte Carlo simulation studies are performed. In addition, residual and local influence analysis are discussed and an application to credit card data is presented.
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Sasieni, Peter D. "Beyond the Cox model : extensions of the model and alternative estimators /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/9556.
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Cai, Jianwen. "Generalized estimating equations for censored multivariate failure time data /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/9581.
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Li, Qiuju. "Statistical inference for joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2014. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/statistical-inference-for-joint-modelling-of-longitudinal-and-survival-data(65e644f3-d26f-47c0-bbe1-a51d01ddc1b9).html.
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In longitudinal studies, data collected within a subject or cluster are somewhat correlated by their very nature and special cares are needed to account for such correlation in the analysis of data. Under the framework of longitudinal studies, three topics are being discussed in this thesis. In chapter 2, the joint modelling of multivariate longitudinal process consisting of different types of outcomes are discussed. In the large cohort study of UK north Stafforshire osteoarthritis project, longitudinal trivariate outcomes of continuous, binary and ordinary data are observed at baseline, year 3 and year 6. Instead of analysing each process separately, joint modelling is proposed for the trivariate outcomes to account for the inherent association by introducing random effects and the covariance matrix G. The influence of covariance matrix G on statistical inference of fixed-effects parameters has been investigated within the Bayesian framework. The study shows that by joint modelling the multivariate longitudinal process, it can reduce the bias and provide with more reliable results than it does by modelling each process separately. Together with the longitudinal measurements taken intermittently, a counting process of events in time is often being observed as well during a longitudinal study. It is of interest to investigate the relationship between time to event and longitudinal process, on the other hand, measurements taken for the longitudinal process may be potentially truncated by the terminated events, such as death. Thus, it may be crucial to jointly model the survival and longitudinal data. It is popular to propose linear mixed-effects models for the longitudinal process of continuous outcomes and Cox regression model for survival data to characterize the relationship between time to event and longitudinal process, and some standard assumptions have been made. In chapter 3, we try to investigate the influence on statistical inference for survival data when the assumption of mutual independence on random error of linear mixed-effects models of longitudinal process has been violated. And the study is conducted by utilising conditional score estimation approach, which provides with robust estimators and shares computational advantage. Generalised sufficient statistic of random effects is proposed to account for the correlation remaining among the random error, which is characterized by the data-driven method of modified Cholesky decomposition. The simulation study shows that, by doing so, it can provide with nearly unbiased estimation and efficient statistical inference as well. In chapter 4, it is trying to account for both the current and past information of longitudinal process into the survival models of joint modelling. In the last 15 to 20 years, it has been popular or even standard to assume that longitudinal process affects the counting process of events in time only through the current value, which, however, is not necessary to be true all the time, as recognised by the investigators in more recent studies. An integral over the trajectory of longitudinal process, along with a weighted curve, is proposed to account for both the current and past information to improve inference and reduce the under estimation of effects of longitudinal process on the risk hazards. A plausible approach of statistical inference for the proposed models has been proposed in the chapter, along with real data analysis and simulation study.
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Zerbinatti, Luiz Fernando Molinari. "Predição de fator de simultaneidade através de modelos de regressão para proporções contínuas." Universidade de São Paulo, 2008. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/45/45133/tde-05042008-103844/.
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O fator de simultaneidade é fundamental no planejamento de redes de distribuição de gás natural. Trata-se de um multiplicador entre 0 e 1 que ajusta o consumo total teórico de um número de aparelhos de utilização em condições reais. Em 2005 o Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas (IPT) e a Companhia de Gás de São Paulo (COMGÁS) realizaram um estudo no qual determinou-se o fator de simultaneidade em um conjunto de edificações residenciais. Um modelo de regressão foi proposto para expressar o fator de simultaneidade em termos da potência total instalada. O modelo ajustado pode ser utilizado para predizer o fator de simultaneidade em novas edificações. O modelo em questão é um modelo de regressão linear normal no qual a variável resposta é o logaritmo do fator de simultaneidade. Nesta dissertação, o objetivo é investigar outras possibilidades de modelos de regressão adequados aos dados obtidos pelo IPT e pela COMGÁS. Especial atenção é dada ao modelo de regressão beta proposto por Ferrari e Cribari-Neto (Journal of Applied Statistics, 2004) por possuir vantagens sobre o modelo de regressão linear normal. O modelo de regressão beta assume que, dadas as covariáveis, a variável resposta possui distribuição beta, sendo adequado para modelar dados observados no intervalo unitário. Desta forma, a transformação na variável resposta - o fator de simultaneidade - é desnecessária. Além disso, é proposta uma nova abordagem para a predição do fator de simultaneidade, diferente de todas as abordagens pesquisadas na literatura, utilizando a técnica de bootstrap.The simultaneity factor is fundamental in planning gas distribution networks. It is a multiplicator between 0 and 1 that adjusts the theoretical total consumption of a number of devices to realistic conditions. In 2005, the Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas (IPT) and the Companhia de Gás de São Paulo (COMGÁS) performed a study in which the simultaneity factor of gas consumption in a set of residential buildings have been determined. A regression model was proposed to express the simultaneity factor in terms of the total power of installed equipment. The fitted model can be used to predict the simultaneity factor in new buildings. The model they proposed is a normal linear regression model in which the response variable is the logarithm of the simultaneity factor. In the present dissertation, our aim is to investigate other possible regression models suitable to the data obtained by IPT and CONGÁS. Emphasis is given to the beta regression model proposed by Ferrari and Cribari-Neto (Journal of Applied Statistics, 2004) which has a number of advantages over normal linear regression models. The beta regression model assumes that, given the covariates, the response variable has a beta distribution, which is adequate to model data observed in the unit interval. Therefore, no transformation in the response variable, the simultaneity factor, is needed. Additionally, we present a new approach for the prediction of the simultaneity factor, that is different from all the approaches shown in the literature, using the bootstrap technique.
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Carstens, Wiehahn Alwyn. "Regression analysis of caterpillar 793D haul truck engine failure data and through-life diagnostic information using the proportional hazards model." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/20333.
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Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Physical Asset Management (PAM) is becoming a greater concern for companies in industry today. The widely accepted British Standards Institutes’ specification for optimized management of physical assets and infrastructure is PAS55. According to PAS55, PAM is the “systematic and co-ordinated activities and practices through which an organization optimally manages its physical assets, and their associated performance, risks and expenditures over their life cycle for the purpose of achieving its organizational strategic plan”. One key performance area of PAM is Asset Care Plans (ACP). These plans are maintenance strategies which improve or ensure acceptable asset reliability and performance during its useful life. Maintenance strategies such as Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) acts upon Condition Monitoring (CM) data, disregarding the previous failure histories of an asset. Other maintenance strategies, such as Usage Based Maintenance (UBM), is based on previous failure histories, and does not consider CM data. Regression models make use of both CM data and previous failure histories to develop a model which represents the underlying failure behaviour of the asset under study. These models can be of high value in ACP development due to the fact that Residual Useful Life (RUL) can be estimated and/or the long term life cycle cost can be optimized. The objective of this thesis was to model historical failure data and CM data well enough so that RUL or optimized preventive maintenance instant estimations can be made. These estimates were used in decision models to develop maintenance schedules, i.e. ACPs. Several regression models were evaluated to determine the most suitable model to achieve the objectives of this thesis. The model found to be most suitable for this research project was the Proportional Hazards Model (PHM). A comprehensive investigation on the PHM was undertaken focussing on the mathematics and the practical implementation thereof. Data obtained from the South African mining industry was modelled with the Weibull PHM. It was found that the developed model produced estimates which were accurate representations of reality. These findings provide an exciting basis for the development of futureWeibull PHMs that could result in huge maintenance cost savings and reduced failure occurrences.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Fisiese Bate Bestuur (FBB) is besig om ’n groter bekommernis vir maatskappye in die bedryf te word. Die Britse Standaarde Instituut se spesifikasie vir optimale bestuur van fisiese bates en infrastruktuur is PAS55. Volgens PAS55 is FBB die “sistematiese en gekoördineerde aktiwiteite en praktyke wat deur ’n organisasie optimaal sy fisiese bates, hul verwante prestasie, risiko’s en uitgawes vir die doel van die bereiking van sy organisatoriese strategiese plan beheer oor hul volle lewensiklus te bestuur”. Een Sleutel Fokus Area (SFA) van FBB is Bate Versorgings Plan (BVP) ontwikkeling. Hierdie is onderhouds strategieë wat bate betroubaarheid verbeter of verseker tydens die volle bruikbare lewe van die bate. Een onderhoud strategie is Toestands Gebasseeerde Onderhoud (TGO) wat besluite baseer op Toestand Monitering (TM) informasie maar neem nie die vorige falingsgeskiedenis van die bate in ag nie. Ander onderhoud strategieë soos Gebruik Gebasseerde Onderhoud (GGO) is gebaseer op historiese falingsdata maar neem nie TM inligting in ag nie. Regressiemodelle neem beide TM data en historiese falings geskiedenis data in ag ten einde die onderliggende falings gedrag van die gegewe bate te verteenwoordig. Hierdie modelle kan baie nuttig wees vir BVP ontwikkeling te danke aan die feit dat Bruikbare Oorblywende Lewe (BOL) geskat kan word en/of die langtermyn lewenssilus koste geoptimeer kan word. Die doelwit van hierdie tesis was om historiese falingsdata en TT data goed genoeg te modelleer sodat BOL of optimale langtermyn lewensiklus kostes bepaal kan word om opgeneem te word in BVP ontwikkeling. Hierdie bepalings word dan gebruik in besluitnemings modelle wat gebruik kan word om onderhoud skedules op te stel, d.w.s. om ’n BVP te ontwikkel. Verskeie regressiemodelle was geëvalueer om die regte model te vind waarmee die doel van hierdie tesis te bereik kan word. Die mees geskikte model vir die navorsingsprojek was die Proporsionele Gevaarkoers Model (PGM). ’n Omvattende ondersoek oor die PGM is onderneem wat fokus op die wiskunde en die praktiese implementering daarvan. Data is van die Suid-Afrikaanse mynbedryf verkry en is gemodelleer met behulp van die Weibull PGM. Dit was bevind dat die ontwikkelde model resultate geproduseer het wat ’n akkurate verteenwoordinging van realiteit is. Hierdie bevindinge bied ’n opwindende basis vir die ontwikkeling van toekomstige Weibull Proporsionele Gevaarkoers Modelle wat kan lei tot groot onderhoudskoste besparings en minder onverwagte falings.
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Morgan, Jerry R. "A study of promotion and attrition of mid-grade officers in the U.S. Marine Corps : are assignments a key factor? /." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2005. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/05Mar%5FMorgan%5FJerry.pdf.
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Tian, Shaonan. "Essays on Corporate Default Prediction." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2012. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1352403546.
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Hughes, James A. "Person, environment, and health and illness factors influencing time to first analgesia and patient experience of pain management in the adult emergency department." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2018. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/123311/3/James_Hughes_Thesis.pdf.
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This thesis explored patient, clinician, environmental and illness factors that influence how doctors and nurses treat patients who present to the emergency department in pain. The findings confirm that patients are more likely to receive analgesic medication in a shorter time and have a more positive experience with pain care when the emergency department is less busy, they have less pre-existing illness, and have a higher socioeconomic status. The identification of these factors has important implications for making changes to the way emergency departments and emergency clinicians treat pain in a timely and patient-centered manner.
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Pinheiro, Eliane Cantinho. "Ajustes para o teste da razão de verossimilhanças em modelos de regressão beta." Universidade de São Paulo, 2009. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/45/45133/tde-09072009-144049/.
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O presente trabalho considera o problema de fazer inferência com acurácia para pequenas amostras, tomando por base a estatística da razão de verossimilhanças em modelos de regressão beta. Estes, por sua vez, são úteis para modelar proporções contínuas que são afetadas por variáveis independentes. Deduzem-se as estatísticas da razão de verossimilhanças ajustadas de Skovgaard (Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 28 (2001) 3-32) nesta classe de modelos. Os termos do ajuste, que têm uma forma simples e compacta, podem ser implementados em um software estatístico. São feitas simulações de Monte Carlo para mostrar que a inferência baseada nas estatísticas ajustadas propostas é mais confiável do que a inferência usual baseada na estatística da razão de verossimilhanças. Aplicam-se os resultados a um conjunto real de dados.We consider the issue of performing accurate small-sample likelihood-based inference in beta regression models, which are useful for modeling continuous proportions that are affected by independent variables. We derive Skovgaards (Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 28 (2001) 3-32) adjusted likelihood ratio statistics in this class of models. We show that the adjustment terms have simple compact form that can be easily implemented from standard statistical software. We presentMonte Carlo simulations showing that inference based on the adjusted statistics we propose is more reliable than that based on the usual likelihood ratio statistic. A real data example is presented.
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Salama, Dina. "Predicting Disease Course in Inflammatory Bowel Disease using Health Administrative Data." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/41978.
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Background: Investigators are often interested in using population-level health administrative data in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients to study disease outcomes, risk factors and treatment effects to enhance knowledge, shape clinical practice and influence health care policy. A major limitation of using health administrative data for these purposes is the lack of detailed clinical data to adjust for the confounding effects of differential disease severity on observed associations. Methods to account for disease severity using administrative variables would offer a major advance to population-level studies in IBD patients. Thus, in this study we aimed to use a cohort of IBD patients from The Ottawa Hospital (TOH) to validate a model that was originally developed in Manitoba for estimating clinical disease course in IBD patients through healthcare utilization measures. Objectives: The objectives of this thesis are: 1) To identify and characterize a reference cohort of IBD patients in the ambulatory clinics of four gastroenterologists from TOH on clinical disease course in the preceding year (reference cohort), based on a Manitoba definition of clinical disease course; 2) To fit a partial proportional odds (PPO) model for predicting IBD course, derived using Manitoba health administrative data, to the reference cohort of IBD patients using Ontario health administrative data; 3) To derive new PPO models of IBD disease course for the reference cohort using Ontario administrative variables and compare model performance; and 4) To apply the models to the Ontario Crohn’s and Colitis cohort (OCCC) to estimate IBD course in Ontario, and compare the distribution to that of the Manitoba IBD population.Methods: We first identified a reference cohort of IBD patients in Ontario from the outpatient clinics at TOH during fiscal year 2015. Through chart review, we classified these patients into one of four clinical disease categories (remission, mild, moderate, or severe) using the Manitoba definition. We linked these patients to Ontario health administrative datasets. Given slight differences in data structure and coding between Manitoba and Ontario, we were unable to directly test the Manitoba model and instead fit a PPO model to the Ontario cohort using analogous administrative variables to those used in the final Manitoba model (“adapted model”). We subsequently derived new PPO models using unique Ontario administrative variables under three strategies: 1) Stepwise variable selection (“stepwise model”); 2) Forced fitting of all variables (“all-variables model”); and 3) Using a two-step modelling algorithm that considered IBD-related hospitalizations separate from other administrative variables (“two-step model”). We then compared model performance from the four strategies. Finally, we applied the models to the Ontario IBD population from 2004 to 2016 and compared model estimates to those from Manitoba. Results: We identified 963 patients with IBD from TOH outpatient clinics, of which 52.3% (n=504) were males, 64.6% (n=622) had Crohn's Disease, and 89.2% (n=859) resided in an urban setting. Based on the Manitoba definition, 64.9% of patients within our reference cohort were classified as remission, while 11.4%, 14.1%, and 9.6% were classified as mild, moderate, and severe disease course, respectively. The adapted model (c-statistic 0.77, goodness-fit p-value 0.28) performed comparably to the other models: the stepwise model (c-statistic 0.77, goodness-fit p-value 0.50), the all-variables model (c-statistic 0.77, goodness-fit p-value 0.53), and the two-step model (c-statistic 0.78, goodness-fit p-value 0.75). The adapted model also resulted in overall similar estimates with regards to the disease course distribution among the Ontario IBD population. However, on closer inspection, our two-step model, in which individuals who had been hospitalized for an IBD-related indication within the past year were assumed to have severe disease, performed better with respect to accurately classifying individuals with moderate or severe disease, without sacrificing discriminative ability. Based on the two-step model, from 2004 to 2016, 89.2-91.2% of the Ontario IBD population was in remission, 0% had mild disease, 2.4-3.2% had moderate disease, and 5.9-8.4% had severe disease. Distribution of disease course among IBD patients in Ontario differed considerably than that in Manitoba. Conclusion: In the absence of clinical information within health administrative data, we present and compare four different models that can be used to partially account for the confounding effect of disease course among IBD patients in future population-based studies using Ontario health administrative data. Given that our models did not perform as originally expected, especially with regards to accurately identifying individuals with more active disease states, we advise researchers to use these models at their own discretion.
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Calsavara, Vinícius Fernando. "Estimação de efeitos variantes no tempo em modelos tipo Cox via bases de Fourier e ondaletas Haar." Universidade de São Paulo, 2015. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/45/45133/tde-26082015-140547/.
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O modelo semiparamétrico de Cox é frequentemente utilizado na modelagem de dados de sobrevivência, pois é um modelo muito flexível e permite avaliar o efeito das covariáveis sobre a taxa de falha. Uma das principais vantagens é a fácil interpretação, de modo que a razão de riscos de dois indivíduos não varia ao longo do tempo. No entanto, em algumas situações a proporcionalidade dos riscos para uma dada covariável pode não ser válida e, este caso, uma abordagem que não dependa de tal suposição é necessária. Nesta tese, propomos um modelo tipo Cox em que o efeito da covariável e a função de risco basal são representadas via bases de Fourier e ondaletas de Haar clássicas e deformadas. Propomos também um procedimento de predição da função de sobrevivência para um paciente específico. Estudos de simulações e aplicações a dados reais sugerem que nosso método pode ser uma ferramenta valiosa em situações práticas em que o efeito da covariável é dependente do tempo. Por meio destes estudos, fazemos comparações entre as duas abordagens propostas, e comparações com outra já conhecida na literatura, onde verificamos resultados satisfatórios.The semiparametric Cox model is often considered when modeling survival data. It is very flexible, allowing for the evaluation of covariates effects. One of its main advantages is the easy of interpretation, as long as the rate of the hazards for two individuals does not vary over time. However, this proportionality of the hazards may not be true in some practical situations and, in this case, an approach not relying on such assumption is needed. In this thesis we propose a Cox-type model that allows for time-varying covariate effects, for which the baseline hazard is based on Fourier series and wavelets on a time-frequency representation. We derive a prediction method for the survival of future patients with any specific set of covariates. Simulations and an application to a real data set suggest that our method may be a valuable tool to model data in practical situations where covariate effects vary over time. Through these studies, we make comparisons between the two approaches proposed here and comparisons with other already known in the literature, where we verify satisfactory results.
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Silva, Ana Roberta dos Santos 1989. "Modelos de regressão beta retangular heteroscedásticos aumentados em zeros e uns." [s.n.], 2015. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/306787.
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Orientador: Caio Lucidius Naberezny AzevedoDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matemática Estatística e Computação Científica
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Resumo: Neste trabalho desenvolvemos a distribuição beta retangular aumentada em zero e um, bem como um correspondente modelo de regressão beta retangular aumentado em zero e um para analisar dados limitados-aumentados (representados por variáveis aleatórias mistas com suporte limitado), que apresentam valores discrepantes. Desenvolvemos ferramentas de inferência sob as abordagens bayesiana e frequentista. No que diz respeito à inferência bayesiana, devido à impossibilidade de obtenção analítica das posteriores de interesse, utilizou-se algoritmos MCMC. Com relação à estimação frequentista, utilizamos o algoritmo EM. Desenvolvemos técnicas de análise de resíduos, utilizando o resíduo quantil aleatorizado, tanto sob o enfoque frequentista quanto bayesiano. Desenvolvemos, também, medidas de influência, somente sob o enfoque bayesiano, utilizando a medida de Kullback Leibler. Além disso, adaptamos métodos de checagem preditiva à posteriori existentes na literatura, ao nosso modelo, utilizando medidas de discrepância apropriadas. Para a comparação de modelos, utilizamos os critérios usuais na literatura, como AIC, BIC e DIC. Realizamos diversos estudos de simulação, considerando algumas situações de interesse prático, com o intuito de comparar as estimativas bayesianas com as frequentistas, bem como avaliar o comportamento das ferramentas de diagnóstico desenvolvidas. Um conjunto de dados da área psicométrica foi analisado para ilustrar o potencial do ferramental desenvolvido
Abstract: In this work we developed the zero-one augmented rectangular beta distribution, as well as a correspondent zero-one augmented rectangular beta regression model to analyze limited-augmented data (represented by mixed random variables with limited support), which present outliers. We develop inference tools under the Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Regarding to the Bayesian inference, due the impossibility of obtaining analytically the posterior distributions of interest, we used MCMC algorithms. Concerning the frequentist estimation, we use the EM algorithm. We develop techniques of residual analysis, by using the randomized quantile residuals, under both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. We also developed influence measures, only under the Bayesian approach, by using the measure of Kullback Leibler. In addition, we adapt methods of posterior predictive checking available in the literature, to our model, using appropriate discrepancy measures. For model selection, we use the criteria commonly employed in the literature, such as AIC, BIC and DIC. We performed several simulation studies, considering some situations of practical interest, in order to compare the Bayesian and frequentist estimates, as well as to evaluate the behavior of the developed diagnostic tools. A psychometric real data set was analyzed to illustrate the performance of the developed tools
Mestrado
Estatistica
Mestra em Estatística
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Capuano, Ana W. "Constrained ordinal models with application in occupational and environmental health." Diss., University of Iowa, 2012. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/2450.
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Occupational and environmental epidemiological studies often involve ordinal data, including antibody titer data, indicators of health perceptions, and certain psychometrics. Ideally, such data should be analyzed using approaches that exploit the ordinal nature of the scale, while making a minimum of assumptions.
In this work, we first review and illustrate the analytical technique of ordinal logistic regression called the "proportional odds model". This model, which is based on a constrained ordinal model, is considered the most popular ordinal model. We use hypothetical data to illustrate a situation where the proportional odds model holds exactly, and we demonstrate through derivations and simulations how using this model has better statistical power than simple logistic regression. The section concludes with an example illustrating the use of the model in avian and swine influenza research.
In the middle section of this work, we show how the proportional model assumption can be relaxed to a less restrictive model called the "trend odds model". We demonstrate how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, scale changes in these potential latent distributions are found to be consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. Actual data of antibody titer against avian and swine influenza among occupationally- exposed participants and non-exposed controls illustrate the fit and interpretation of the proportional odds model and the trend odds model.
Finally, we show how to perform a multivariable analysis in which some of the variables meet the proportional model assumption and some meet the trend odds assumption. Likert-scaled data pertaining to violence among middle school students illustrate the fit and interpretation of the multivariable proportional-trend odds model.
In conclusion, the proportional odds model provides superior power compared to models that employ arbitrary dichotomization of ordinal data. In addition, the added complexity of the trend odds model provides improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. The increase in power is of great public health relevance in a time of increasingly scarce resources for occupational and environmental health research. The trend odds model indicates and tests the presence of a trend in odds, providing a new dimension to risk factors and disease etiology analyses. In addition to applications demonstrated in this work, other research areas in occupational and environmental health can benefit from the use of these methods. For example, worker fatigue is often self-reported using ordinal scales, and traumatic brain injury recovery is measured using recovery scores such as the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS).
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Lara, Evandro de Avila e. "Regressão logística politômica ordinal: Avaliação do potencial de Clonostachys rosea no biocontrole de Botrytis cinerea." Universidade Federal de Viçosa, 2012. http://locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/4060.
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Previous issue date: 2012-07-23The use of logistic regression modeling as a tool for modeling statistical probability of an event as a function of one or more independents variables, has grown among researchers in several areas, including Phytopathology. At about the dichotomous logistic regression in which the dependent variable is the type binary or dummy, is the extensive number of studies in the literature that discuss the modeling assumptions and the interpretation of the analyzes, as well as alternatives for implementation in statistical packages. However, when the variable response requires the use three or more categories, the number of publications is scarce. This is not only due to the scarcity of relevant publications on the subject, but also the inherent difficulty of coverage on the subject. In this paper we address the applicability of the model polytomous ordinal logistic regression, as well as differences between the proportional odds models, nonproportional and partial proportional odds. For this, we analyzed data from an experiment in which we evaluated the potential antagonistic fungus Clonostachys rosea in biocontrol of the disease called "gray mold", caused by Botrytis cinerea in strawberry and tomato. The partial proportional odds models and nonproportional were adjusted and compared, since the proportionality test score accused rejection of the proportional odds assumption. The estimates of the model coefficients as well as the odds ratios were interpreted in practical terms for Phytopathology. The polytomous ordinal logistic regression is introduced as an important statistical tool for predicting values, showing the potential of C. rosea in becoming a commercial product to be developed and used in the biological control of the disease, because the application of C. rosea was as or more effective than the use of fungicides in the control of gray mold.
O uso da regressão logística como uma ferramenta estatística para modelar a probabilidade de um evento em função de uma ou mais variáveis explicativas, tem crescido entre pesquisadores em várias áreas, inclusive na Fitopatologia. À respeito da regressão logística dicotômica, na qual a variável resposta é do tipo binária ou dummy, é extenso o número de trabalhos na literatura que abordam a modelagem, as pressuposições e a interpretação das análises, bem como alternativas de implementação em pacotes estatísticos. No entanto, quando a variável resposta requer que se utilize três ou mais categorias, o número de publicações é escasso. Isso devido não somente à escassez de publicações relevantes sobre o assunto, mas também à inerente dificuldade de abrangência sobre o tema. No presente trabalho aborda-se a aplicabilidade do modelo de regressão logística politômica ordinal, bem como as diferenças entre os modelos de chances proporcionais, chances proporcionais parciais e chances não proporcionais. Para isso, foram analisados dados de um experimento em que se avaliou o potencial do fungo antagonista Clonostachys rosea no biocontrole da doença denominada mofo cinzento , causada por Botrytis cinerea em morangueiro e tomateiro. Os modelos de chances proporcionais parciais e não proporcionais foram ajustados e comparados, uma vez que o teste score de proporcionalidade acusou rejeição da pressuposição de chances proporcionais. As estimativas dos coeficientes dos modelos bem como das razões de chances foram interpretadas em termos práticos para a Fitopatologia. A regressão logística politômica ordinal se apresentou como uma importante ferramenta estatística para predição de valores, mostrando o potencial do C. rosea em se tornar um produto comercial a ser desenvolvido e usado no controle biológico da doença, pois a aplicação de C. rosea foi tão ou mais eficiente do que a utilização de fungicidas no controle do mofo cinzento.
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Lee, Kyeong Eun. "Bayesian models for DNA microarray data analysis." Diss., Texas A&M University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2465.
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Selection of signi?cant genes via expression patterns is important in a microarray problem. Owing to small sample size and large number of variables (genes), the selection process can be unstable. This research proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model for gene (variable) selection. We employ latent variables in a regression setting and use a Bayesian mixture prior to perform the variable selection. Due to the binary nature of the data, the posterior distributions of the parameters are not in explicit form, and we need to use a combination of truncated sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based computation techniques to simulate the posterior distributions. The Bayesian model is ?exible enough to identify the signi?cant genes as well as to perform future predictions. The method is applied to cancer classi?cation via cDNA microarrays. In particular, the genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 are associated with a hereditary disposition to breast cancer, and the method is used to identify the set of signi?cant genes to classify BRCA1 and others. Microarray data can also be applied to survival models. We address the issue of how to reduce the dimension in building model by selecting signi?cant genes as well as assessing the estimated survival curves. Additionally, we consider the wellknown Weibull regression and semiparametric proportional hazards (PH) models for survival analysis. With microarray data, we need to consider the case where the number of covariates p exceeds the number of samples n. Speci?cally, for a given vector of response values, which are times to event (death or censored times) and p gene expressions (covariates), we address the issue of how to reduce the dimension by selecting the responsible genes, which are controlling the survival time. This approach enables us to estimate the survival curve when n << p. In our approach, rather than ?xing the number of selected genes, we will assign a prior distribution to this number. The approach creates additional ?exibility by allowing the imposition of constraints, such as bounding the dimension via a prior, which in e?ect works as a penalty. To implement our methodology, we use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. We demonstrate the use of the methodology with (a) di?use large B??cell lymphoma (DLBCL) complementary DNA (cDNA) data and (b) Breast Carcinoma data. Lastly, we propose a mixture of Dirichlet process models using discrete wavelet transform for a curve clustering. In order to characterize these time??course gene expresssions, we consider them as trajectory functions of time and gene??speci?c parameters and obtain their wavelet coe?cients by a discrete wavelet transform. We then build cluster curves using a mixture of Dirichlet process priors.
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Correia, Leandro Tavares. "Modelos de regressão estáticos e dinâmicos para taxas ou proporções: uma abordagem bayesiana." Universidade de São Paulo, 2015. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/45/45133/tde-27082015-224138/.
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Este trabalho apresenta um estudo de dados com resposta em intervalos limitados, mais especificamente no intervalo [0,1], como no caso de taxas e proporções. Em diversos casos práticos esta estrutura de dados apresenta uma quantidade não negligenciável de valores extremos (0 e 1) e que modelos usuais não são adequados para sua análise. Para esta situação propomos, por meio de um enfoque Bayesiano, modelos de regressão beta inflacionado de zeros e uns (BIZU) e modelos de regressão Tobit duplamente censurado adaptados nesse intervalo. Técnicas de diagnóstico e qualidade do ajuste também são discutidas. Apresentamos a análise desta estrutura de dados no contexto de série de tempo por meio da abordagem Bayesiana de modelos dinâmicos. Estudos de comportamento e previsão de séries de tempo foram explorados utilizando técnicas de Monte Carlo sequencial, conhecidas como filtro de partículas. Particularidades e competitividade entre as duas classes de modelos também foram discutidas.This paper presents a study focused on observations in a limited interval , more specifically in [0,1] , such as rate and proportion data. In many practical cases this data structure has a considerable amount of extreme values (0 and 1) and usual classical models are not suitable for this type of data set. We propose two class of regression models to deal with this context: beta inflated of zeros and ones (BIZU) models and Tobit doubly censored models adapted in this interval. Fit quality and diagnostic techniques are also discussed. Time series of proportions are also developed through Bayesian dynamic models. Forecasting and behavioral analysis were explored using sequential Monte Carlo techniques, known as particle filters. Particularities and competitiveness between the two classes of models were also discussed as well.
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Frazão, Italo Marcus da Mota. "Modelos com sobreviventes de longa duração paramétricos e semi-paramétricos aplicados a um ensaio clínico aleatorizado." Universidade de São Paulo, 2012. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11134/tde-13032013-093628/.
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Diversos modelos têm sido propostos na literatura com o objetivo de analisar dados de sobrevivência em que a população sob estudo é assumida ser uma mistura de indivíduos suscetíveis (em risco) e não suscetíveis a um específico evento de interesse. Tais modelos são usualmente denominados modelos com sobreviventes de longa duração ou modelos com fração de cura. Neste trabalho, diversos desses modelos (nos contextos paramétrico e semi-paramétrico) foram considerados para analisar os dados de um ensaio clínico aleatorizado conduzido com o objetivo de comparar três estratégias terapêuticas (cirurgia, angioplastia e medicamentoso) utilizadas no tratamento de pacientes com doença coronariana multiarterial. Em todos os modelos, as funções de ligação logito e complemento log-log foram utilizadas para modelar a proporção de sobreviventes de longa duração (indivíduos não suscetíveis). Quanto à função de sobrevivência dos indivíduos suscetíveis, foram utilizados os modelos de Weibull e de Cox. Covariáveis foram consideradas tanto na proporção de sobreviventes de longa duração quanto na função de sobrevivência dos indivíduos suscetíveis. De modo geral, os modelos considerados se mostraram adequados para analisar os dados do ensaio clínico aleatorizado, indicando a cirurgia como a estratégia terapêutica mais eficiente. Indicaram também, que as covariáveis idade, hipertensão e diabetes mellitus exercem influência na ocorrência do óbito cardíaco, mas não no tempo até a ocorrência deste óbito nos pacientes suscetíveis.Several models have been proposed in the literature with the aim of analyzing survival data when the population under study is assumed to be a mixture of susceptible (at risk) and not susceptible individuals to a specific event of interest. Such models are usually called long-term survivors models or cure rate models. In this work, several of these models (under both parametric and semi-parametric approaches) were considered to analyze the data from a randomized clinical trial conducted in order to compare three therapeutic strategies (surgery, angioplasty and medicine) used in the treatment of patients with multivessel coronary artery disease. For all models the logit and complementary log-log link functions were used to model the proportion of long-term survivors (not susceptible individuals). In regards to the survival function of the susceptible individuals, the Weibull and Cox models were used. Covariates were considered both in the proportion of longterm survivors and in the survival function of the susceptible individuals. Overall, the models considered were suitable for analyzing the data from the randomized clinical trial indicating surgery as the most effective therapeutic strategy. They also indicated that the covariates age, hypertension and diabetes mellitus exhibit influence on the occurrence of cardiac death, but not on the time to the occurrence of this death in susceptible patients.
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Lindberg, Erik. "A study of the effect of inbreeding in Skellefteå during the 19th century : Using Cox Proportional hazard model to analyze lifespans and Poisson/Negative Binomial regression to analyze fertility." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Statistik, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-122687.
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Inbreeding is defined as when two individuals who are related mate and produce offspring. The level of inbreeding for an individual can be determined by calculating an inbreeding coefficient. Inbreeding can enhance both positive and negative traits. The risk for recessive diseases also increase. Data from old church records from the region of Skellefteå covering individuals from the late 17th century to the early 20th century has been made available. From this data parent-child relations can be observed and levels of inbreeding calculated. By analyzing the available data using Cox Proportional Hazard regression model it was shown that the level inbreeding affected the lifespan of an individual negatively if the parents are second cousins or more closely related. Using Poisson- and Negative Binomial regression, no evicence of an effect of inbreeding of fertility could be found.
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Danardono. "Multiple Time Scales and Longitudinal Measurements in Event History Analysis." Doctoral thesis, Umeå : Dept. of Statistics, Umeå Univ, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-420.
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Bäckström, Mattias, and Måns Helldin. "Är äldreomsorgen möjlig att påverka vid valurnan? : En studie om den politiska majoritetens effekt på kostnaden för och kvaliteten inom äldreomsorgen i svenska kommuner." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-435038.
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Ett sedan länge betraktat problem inom politisk ekonomi är om, och i så fall i vilken utsträckning, politiska partier påverkar ekonomiska policyutfall. Syftet med studien är att undersöka om det rådande politiska majoritetsförhållandet i kommunfullmäktige har en effekt på kostnaderna för och kvaliteten inom en verksamhet som kommit att hamna allt högre på den politiska dagordningen under coronapandemin – äldreomsorgen. Studien tar avstamp i teoretiska utgångspunkter i form av medianväljarteoremet och citizen candidate-modellen. I syfte att estimera effekten av den politiska majoriteten på äldreomsorgen tillämpas en skarp regression discontinuity (RD) design för två kostnadsmått och två kvalitetsmått; antalet fallskador bland personer 80 år och äldre per 1 000 invånare samt brukarbedömning avseende äldreomsorg i särskilt boende. Resultatet visar att en vänsterblocksmajoritet är associerad med drygt 23 procent högre kostnader för äldreomsorg i kronor per invånare samt drygt sex procentenheters lägre nivå i fråga om brukarbedömning än jämfört med andra partikonstellationer. Resultaten är dock inte stabila över olika ekonometriska specifikationer och ytterligare studier skulle därmed behövas för att säkrare kunna belägga ett eventuellt samband.
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Zhao, Feng. "Bootstrap variable selection and model validation for Cox's proportional hazards regression models, with applications to the identification of factors predictive of overall and post-relapse survival in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/tape17/PQDD_0026/MQ31275.pdf.
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Thapa, Ram. "Modeling Mortality of Loblolly Pine Plantations." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/46726.
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Accurate prediction of mortality is an important component of forest growth and yield prediction systems, yet mortality remains one of the least understood components of the system. Whole-stand and individual-tree mortality models were developed for loblolly pine plantations throughout its geographic range in the United States. The model for predicting stand mortality were developed using stand characteristics and biophysical variables. The models were constructed using two modeling approaches. In the first approach, mortality functions for directly predicting tree number reduction were developed using algebraic difference equation method. In the second approach, a two-step modeling strategy was used where a model predicting the probability of tree death occurring over a period was developed in the first step and a function that estimates the reduction in tree number was developed in the second step. Individual-tree mortality models were developed using multilevel logistic regression and survival analysis techniques. Multilevel data structure inherent in permanent sample plots data i.e. measurement occasions nested within trees (e.g., repeated measurements) and trees nested within plots, is often ignored in modeling tree mortality in forestry applications. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression takes into account the full hierarchical structure of the data. Multilevel mixed-effects models gave better predictions than the fixed effects model; however, the model fits and predictions were further improved by taking into account the full hierarchical structure of the data. Semiparametric proportional hazards regression was also used to develop model for individual-tree mortality. Shared frailty model, mixed model extension of Cox proportional hazards model, was used to account for unobserved heterogeneity not explained by the observed covariates in the Cox model.Ph. D.
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Laubrock, Jochen. "Proportional slowing in old adults is modulated by episodic memory demands : an investigation of age-related slowing using compatible and arbitrary stimulus-response mappings." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2004. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2005/187/.
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Das dominante Datenmuster im Bereich des kognitiven Alterns ist der Alters-x-Komplexitätseffekt. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht, ob das Muster statt durch einen üblicherweise postulierten unspezifischen durch einen spezifischen Mechanismus erklärt werden kann: die mit dem Alter abnehmende Reliabilität episodischer Akkumulatoren. In sechs Reaktionszeit-Experimenten wurden junge und ältere Erwachsene verglichen, dabei wurden frühe kognitive (Stroop-Bedingung) und episodische Schwierigkeit (Reiz-Reaktions-Zuordnung) orthogonal manipuliert. Die vorhergesagte Dreifachinteraktion der beiden Faktoren mit dem Alter zeigte sich über die Experimente hinweg relativ konsistent. Eine modifizierte Brinley-Analyse ergibt deutlich unterschiedliche Steigungen der Regressionsgeraden im Alt-Jung-Raum für niedrige und hohe episodische Schwierigkeit. Als methodischer Beitrag wird im Anhang ein zur modifizierten Brinley-Analyse passendes Regressionsmodell entwickelt, das aus einigen einfachen Verarbeitungsannahmen folgt. Es wird gezeigt, dass in einer klassischen Brinley Metaanalyse die Steigung neben der theoretisch interessierenden Varianz von theoretisch uninteressanter Zwischen-Experiment-Varianz beeinflusst wird.The age-by-complexity effect is the dominant empirical pattern in cognitive aging. The current report investigates whether a specific high-level mechanism---an age-related decrease in the reliability of episodic accumulators---can account for the age-by-complexity-effect, which is commonly assumed to be caused by an unspecific, low-level deficit. Groups of younger and older adults are compared in six reaction time experiments, using orthogonal manipulations of early cognitive difficulty (e.g., Stroop condition) and episodic demands (e.g., stimulus-response mapping). The predicted three-way interaction of age and the two factors was observed fairly consistently across experiments. A modified Brinley analysis shows that different regression slopes in old-young-space are required for conditions with low and high episodic difficulty. As a methodological contribution, a Brinley regression model following from certain simple processing assumptions is developed. It is shown that in contrast to a standard Brinley meta-analysis, the regression slopes in this model are not influenced by theoretically un-interesting between-experiment variance.
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Sauls, Beverly J. "Relative Survival of Gags Mycteroperca microlepis Released Within a Recreational Hook-and-Line Fishery: Application of the Cox Regression Model to Control for Heterogeneity in a Large-Scale Mark-Recapture Study." Scholar Commons, 2013. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/4940.
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The objectives of this study were to measure injuries and impairments directly observed from gags Mycteroperca microlepis caught and released within a large-scale recreational fishery, develop methods that may be used to rapidly assess the condition of reef fish discards, and estimate the total portion of discards in the fishery that suffer latent mortality. Fishery observers were placed on for-hire charter and headboat vessels operating in the Gulf of Mexico from June 2009 through December 2012 to directly observe reef fishes as they were caught by recreational anglers fishing with hook-and-line gear. Fish that were not retained by anglers were inspected and marked with conventional tags prior to release. Fish were released in multiple regions over a large geographic area throughout the year and over multiple years. The majority of recaptured fish were reported by recreational and commercial fishers, and fishing effort fluctuated both spatially and temporally over the course of this study in response to changes in recreational harvest restrictions and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Therefore, it could not be assumed that encounter probabilities were equal for all individual tagged fish in the population. Fish size and capture depth when fish were initially caught-and-released also varied among individuals in the study and potentially influenced recapture reporting probabilities. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to control for potential covariates on both the occurrence and timing of recapture reporting events so that relative survival among fish released in various conditions could be compared.
A total of 3,954 gags were observed in this study, and the majority (77.26%) were released in good condition (condition category 1), defined as fish that immediately submerged without assistance from venting and had not suffered internal injuries from embedded hooks or visible damage to the gills. However, compared to gags caught in shallower depths, a greater proportion of gags caught and released from depths deeper than 30 meters were in fair or poor condition. Relative survival was significantly reduced (alpha (underline)<(/underline)0.05) for gags released in fair and poor condition after controlling for variable mark-recapture reporting rates for different sized discards among regions and across months and years when individual fish were initially captured, tagged and released. Gags released within the recreational fishery in fair and poor condition were 66.4% (95% C.I. 46.9 to 94.0%) and 50.6% (26.2 to 97.8%) as likely to be recaptured, respectively, as gags released in good condition. Overall discard mortality was calculated for gags released in all condition categories at ten meter depth intervals. There was a significant linear increase in estimated mortality from less than 15% (range of uncertainty, 0.1-25.2%) in shallow depths up to 30 meters, to 35.6% (5.6-55.7%) at depths greater than 70 meters (p < 0.001, R2 = 0.917). This analysis demonstrated the utility of the proportional hazards regression model for controlling for potential covariates on both the occurrence and timing of recapture events in a large-scale mark-recapture study and for detecting significant differences in the relative survival of fish released in various conditions measured under highly variable conditions within a large-scale fishery.
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Arnold, Nathaniel M. "Targeting the Minority: A New Theory of Diversionary Violence." Wright State University / OhioLINK, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=wright1590166439219292.
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Hoglin, Phillip J. "Survival analysis and accession optimization of prior enlisted United States Marine Corps officers." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/1673.
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Approved for public release, distribution is unlimitedThe purpose of this thesis is to firstly analyze the determinants on the survival of United States Marine Corps Officers, and secondly, to develop the methodology to optimize the accessions of prior and non-prior enlisted officers. Using data from the Marine Corps Officer Accession Career file (MCCOAC), the Cox Proportional Hazards Model is used to estimate the effects of officer characteristics on their survival as a commissioned officer in the USMC. A Markov model for career transition is combined with fiscal data to determine the optimum number of prior and non-prior enlisted officers under the constraints of force structure and budget. The findings indicate that prior enlisted officers have a better survival rate than their non-prior enlisted counterparts. Additionally, officers who are married, commissioned through MECEP, graduate in the top third of their TBS class, and are assigned to a combat support MOS have a better survival rate than officers who are unmarried, commissioned through USNA, graduate in the middle third of their TBS class, and are assigned to either combat or combat service support MOS. The findings also indicate that the optimum number of prior enlisted officer accessions may be considerably lower than recent trends and may differ across MOS. Based on the findings; it is recommended that prior enlisted officer accession figures be reviewed.
Major, Australian Army
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Good, Norman Markus. "Methods for estimating the component biomass of a single tree and a stand of trees using variable probability sampling techniques." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2001. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/37097/1/37097_Good_2001.pdf.
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This thesis developed multistage sampling methods for estimating the aggregate biomass of selected tree components, such as leaves, branches, trunk and total, in woodlands in central and western Queensland. To estimate the component biomass of a single tree randomised branch sampling (RBS) and importance sampling (IS) were trialed. RBS and IS were found to reduce the amount of time
and effort to sample tree components in comparison with other standard destructive sampling methods such as ratio sampling, especially when sampling small components such as leaves and small twigs. However, RBS did not estimate leaf and small twig biomass to an acceptable
degree of precision using current methods for creating path selection probabilities. In addition to providing an unbiased estimate of tree component biomass, individual estimates were used for developing allometric regression equations. Equations based on large components
such as total biomass produced narrower confidence intervals than equations developed using
ratio sampling. However, RBS does not estimate small component biomass such as leaves and small wood components with an acceptable degree of precision, and should be mainly used in conjunction with IS for estimating larger component biomass. A whole tree was completely enumerated to set up a sampling space with which RBS could be evaluated under a number of scenarios. To achieve a desired precision, RBS sample size and
branch diameter exponents were varied, and the RBS method was simulated using both analytical and re-sampling methods. It was found that there is a significant amount of natural variation present when relating the biomass of small components to branch diameter, for example. This finding validates earlier decisions to question the efficacy of RBS for estimating small component biomass in eucalypt species. In addition, significant improvements can be made to increase the precision of RBS by increasing the number of samples taken, but more
importantly by varying the exponent used for constructing selection probabilities. To further evaluate RBS on trees with differing growth forms from that enumerated, virtual
trees were generated. These virtual trees were created using L-systems algebra. Decision rules for creating trees were based on easily measurable characteristics that influence a tree's growth and form. These characteristics included; child-to-child and children-to-parent branch diameter relationships, branch length and branch taper. They were modelled using probability
distributions of best fit. By varying the size of a tree and/or the variation in the model describing
tree characteristics; it was possible to simulate the natural variation between trees of similar size
and fonn. By creating visualisations of these trees, it is possible to determine using visual means whether RBS could be effectively applied to particular trees or tree species. Simulation also aided in identifying which characteristics most influenced the precision of RBS, namely, branch length and branch taper. After evaluation of RBS/IS for estimating the component biomass of a single tree, methods for estimating the component biomass of a stand of trees (or plot) were developed and evaluated. A sampling scheme was developed which incorporated both model-based and design-based
biomass estimation methods. This scheme clearly illustrated the strong and weak points
associated with both approaches for estimating plot biomass. Using ratio sampling was more efficient than using RBS/IS in the field, especially for larger tree
components. Probability proportional to size sampling (PPS) -size being the trunk diameter at breast height - generated estimates of component plot biomass that were comparable to those generated using model-based approaches. The research did, however, indicate that PPS is more precise than the use of regression prediction ( allometric) equations for estimating larger components such as trunk or total biomass, and the precision increases in areas of greater biomass. Using more reliable auxiliary information for identifying suitable strata would reduce the amount of within plot variation, thereby increasing precision. PPS had the added advantage
of being unbiased and unhindered by numerous assumptions applicable to the population of interest, the case with a model-based approach. The application of allometric equations in predicting the component biomass of tree species other than that for which the allometric was developed is problematic. Differences in wood density need to be taken into account as well as differences in growth form and within species variability, as outlined in virtual tree simulations. However, the development and application of allometric prediction equations in local species-specific contexts is more desirable than PPS.
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McCosker, Helen Clare. "Prognostic significance of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins in breast cancer patients." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2012. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/53580/1/Helen_McCosker_Thesis.pdf.
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Breast cancer is a leading contributor to the burden of disease in Australia. Fortunately, the recent introduction of diverse therapeutic strategies have improved the survival outcome for many women. Despite this, the clinical management of breast cancer remains problematic as not all approaches are sufficiently sophisticated to take into account the heterogeneity of this disease and are unable to predict disease progression, in particular, metastasis. As such, women with good prognostic outcomes are exposed to the side effects of therapies without added benefit. Furthermore, women with aggressive disease for whom these advanced treatments would deliver benefit cannot be distinguished and opportunities for more intensive or novel treatment are lost. This study is designed to identify novel factors associated with disease progression, and the potential to inform disease prognosis. Frequently overlooked, yet common mediators of disease are the interactions that take place between the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system and the extracellular matrix (ECM).
Our laboratory has previously demonstrated that multiprotein insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I): insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IGFBP): vitronectin (VN) complexes stimulate migration of breast cancer cells in vitro, via the cooperative involvement of the insulin-like growth factor type I receptor (IGF-IR) and VN-binding integrins. However, the effects of IGF and ECM protein interactions on the dissemination and progression of breast cancer in vivo are unknown. It was hypothesised that interactions between proteins required for IGF induced signalling events and those within the ECM contribute to breast cancer metastasis and are prognostic and predictive indicators of patient outcome.
To address this hypothesis, semiquantitative immunohistochemistry (IHC) analyses were performed to compare the extracellular and subcellular distribution of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins between matched normal, primary cancer, and metastatic cancer among archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) breast tissue samples collected from women attending the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression survival models in conjunction with a modified „purposeful selection of covariates. method were applied to determine the prognostic potential of these proteins.
This study provides the first in-depth, compartmentalised analysis of the distribution of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins. As protein function and protein localisation are closely correlated, these findings provide novel insights into IGF signalling and ECM protein function during breast cancer development and progression. Distinct IGF signalling and ECM protein immunoreactivity was observed in the stroma and/or in subcellular locations in normal breast, primary cancer and metastatic cancer tissues. Analysis of the presence and location of stratifin (SFN) suggested a causal relationship in ECM remodelling events during breast cancer development and progression. The results of this study have also suggested that fibronectin (FN) and ¥â1 integrin are important for the formation of invadopodia and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) events. Our data also highlighted the importance of the temporal and spatial distribution of IGF induced signalling proteins in breast cancer metastasis; in particular, SFN, enhancer-of-split and hairy-related protein 2 (SHARP-2), total-akt/protein kinase B 1 (Total-AKT1), phosphorylated-akt/protein kinase B (P-AKT), extracellular signal-related kinase-1 and extracellular signal-related kinase-2 (ERK1/2) and phosphorylated-extracellular signal-related kinase-1 and extracellular signal-related kinase-2 (P-ERK1/2).
Multivariate survival models were created from the immunohistochemical data. These models were found to fit well with these data with very high statistical confidence. Numerous prognostic confounding effects and effect modifications were identified among elements of the ECM and IGF signalling cascade and corroborate the survival models. This finding provides further evidence for the prognostic potential of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins. In addition, the adjusted measures of associations obtained in this study have strengthened the validity and utility of the resulting models.
The findings from this study provide insights into the biological interactions that occur during the development of breast tissue and contribute to disease progression. Importantly, these multivariate survival models could provide important prognostic and predictive indicators that assist the clinical management of breast disease, namely in the early identification of cancers with a propensity to metastasise, and/or recur following adjuvant therapy. The outcomes of this study further inform the development of new therapeutics to aid patient recovery. The findings from this study have widespread clinical application in the diagnosis of disease and prognosis of disease progression, and inform the most appropriate clinical management of individuals with breast cancer.
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Persson, Daniel, and Johannes Ahlström. "Går det att prediktera konkurs i svenska aktiebolag? : En kvantitativ studie om hur finansiella nyckeltal kan användas vid konkursprediktion." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-119867.
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Från 1900-talets början har banker och låneinstitut använt nyckeltal som hjälpmedel vid bedömning och kvantifiering av kreditrisk. För dagens investerare är den ekonomiska miljön mer komplicerad än för bara 40 år sedan då teknologin och datoriseringen öppnade upp världens marknader mot varandra. Bedömning av kreditrisk idag kräver effektiv analys av kvantitativa data och modeller som med god träffsäkerhet kan förutse risker. Under 1900-talets andra hälft skedde en snabb utveckling av de verktyg som används för konkursprediktion, från enkla univariata modeller till komplexa data mining-modeller med tusentals observationer. Denna studie undersöker om det är möjligt att prediktera att svenska företag kommer att gå i konkurs och vilka variabler som innehåller relevant information för detta. Metoderna som används är diskriminantanalys, logistisk regression och överlevnadsanalys på 50 aktiva och 50 företag försatta i konkurs. Resultaten visar på en träffsäkerhet mellan 67,5 % och 75 % beroende på vald statistisk metod. Oavsett vald statistisk metod är det möjligt att klassificera företag som konkursmässiga två år innan konkursens inträffande med hjälp av finansiella nyckeltal av typerna lönsamhetsmått och solvensmått. Samhällskostnader reduceras av bättre konkursprediktion med hjälp av finansiella nyckeltal vilka bidrar till ökad förmåga för företag att tillämpa ekonomistyrning med relevanta nyckeltal i form av lager, balanserad vinst, nettoresultat och rörelseresultat.From the early 1900s, banks and lending institutions have used financial ratios as an aid in the assessment and quantification of credit risk. For today's investors the economic environment is far more complicated than 40 years ago when the technology and computerization opened up the world's markets. Credit risk assessment today requires effective analysis of quantitative data and models that can predict risks with good accuracy. During the second half of the 20th century there was a rapid development of the tools used for bankruptcy prediction. We moved from simple univariate models to complex data mining models with thousands of observations. This study investigates if it’s possible to predict bankruptcy in Swedish limited companies and which variables contain information relevant for this cause. The methods used in the study are discriminant analysis, logistic regression and survival analysis on 50 active and 50 failed companies. The results indicate accuracy between 67.5 % and 75 % depending on the choice of statistical method. Regardless of the selected statistical method used, it’s possible to classify companies as bankrupt two years before the bankruptcy occurs using financial ratios which measures profitability and solvency. Societal costs are reduced by better bankruptcy prediction using financial ratios which contribute to increasing the ability of companies to apply financial management with relevant key ratios in the form of stock , retained earnings , net income and operating income.
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Lenormand, Maxime. "Initialiser et calibrer un modèle de microsimulation dynamique stochastique : application au modèle SimVillages." Phd thesis, Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00822114.
Full textAbstract:
Le but de cette thèse est de développer des outils statistiques permettant d'initialiser et de calibrer les modèles de microsimulation dynamique stochastique, en partant de l'exemple du modèle SimVillages (développé dans le cadre du projet Européen PRIMA). Ce modèle couple des dynamiques démographiques et économiques appliquées à une population de municipalités rurales. Chaque individu de la population, représenté explicitement dans un ménage au sein d'une commune, travaille éventuellement dans une autre, et possède sa propre trajectoire de vie. Ainsi, le modèle inclut-il des dynamiques de choix de vie, d'étude, de carrière, d'union, de naissance, de divorce, de migration et de décès. Nous avons développé, implémenté et testé les modèles et méthodes suivants : 1 / un modèle permettant de générer une population synthétique à partir de données agrégées, où chaque individu est membre d'un ménage, vit dans une commune et possède un statut au regard de l'emploi. Cette population synthétique est l'état initial du modèle. 2 / un modèle permettant de simuler une table d'origine-destination des déplacements domicile-travail à partir de données agrégées. 3 / un modèle permettant d'estimer le nombre d'emplois dans les services de proximité dans une commune donnée en fonction de son nombre d'habitants et de son voisinage en termes de service. 4 / une méthode de calibration des paramètres inconnus du modèle SimVillages de manière à satisfaire un ensemble de critères d'erreurs définis sur des sources de données hétérogènes. Cette méthode est fondée sur un nouvel algorithme d'échantillonnage séquentiel de type Approximate Bayesian Computation.
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Tran, Xuan Quang. "Les modèles de régression dynamique et leurs applications en analyse de survie et fiabilité." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014BORD0147/document.
Full textAbstract:
Cette thèse a été conçu pour explorer les modèles dynamiques de régression, d’évaluer les inférences statistiques pour l’analyse des données de survie et de fiabilité. Ces modèles de régression dynamiques que nous avons considérés, y compris le modèle des hasards proportionnels paramétriques et celui de la vie accélérée avec les variables qui peut-être dépendent du temps. Nous avons discuté des problèmes suivants dans cette thèse.Nous avons présenté tout d’abord une statistique de test du chi-deux généraliséeY2nquiest adaptative pour les données de survie et fiabilité en présence de trois cas, complètes,censurées à droite et censurées à droite avec les covariables. Nous avons présenté en détailla forme pratique deY2nstatistique en analyse des données de survie. Ensuite, nous avons considéré deux modèles paramétriques très flexibles, d’évaluer les significations statistiques pour ces modèles proposées en utilisantY2nstatistique. Ces modèles incluent du modèle de vie accélérés (AFT) et celui de hasards proportionnels (PH) basés sur la distribution de Hypertabastic. Ces deux modèles sont proposés pour étudier la distribution de l’analyse de la duré de survie en comparaison avec d’autre modèles paramétriques. Nous avons validé ces modèles paramétriques en utilisantY2n. Les études de simulation ont été conçus.Dans le dernier chapitre, nous avons proposé les applications de ces modèles paramétriques à trois données de bio-médicale. Le premier a été fait les données étendues des temps de rémission des patients de leucémie aiguë qui ont été proposées par Freireich et al. sur la comparaison de deux groupes de traitement avec des informations supplémentaires sur les log du blanc du nombre de globules. Elle a montré que le modèle Hypertabastic AFT est un modèle précis pour ces données. Le second a été fait sur l’étude de tumeur cérébrale avec les patients de gliome malin, ont été proposées par Sauerbrei & Schumacher. Elle a montré que le meilleur modèle est Hypertabastic PH à l’ajout de cinq variables de signification. La troisième demande a été faite sur les données de Semenova & Bitukov, à concernant les patients de myélome multiple. Nous n’avons pas proposé un modèle exactement pour ces données. En raison de cela était les intersections de temps de survie.Par conséquent, nous vous conseillons d’utiliser un autre modèle dynamique que le modèle de la Simple Cross-Effect à installer ces donnéesThis thesis was designed to explore the dynamic regression models, assessing the sta-tistical inference for the survival and reliability data analysis. These dynamic regressionmodels that we have been considered including the parametric proportional hazards andaccelerated failure time models contain the possibly time-dependent covariates. We dis-cussed the following problems in this thesis.At first, we presented a generalized chi-squared test statisticsY2nthat is a convenient tofit the survival and reliability data analysis in presence of three cases: complete, censoredand censored with covariates. We described in detail the theory and the mechanism to usedofY2ntest statistic in the survival and reliability data analysis. Next, we considered theflexible parametric models, evaluating the statistical significance of them by usingY2nandlog-likelihood test statistics. These parametric models include the accelerated failure time(AFT) and a proportional hazards (PH) models based on the Hypertabastic distribution.These two models are proposed to investigate the distribution of the survival and reliabilitydata in comparison with some other parametric models. The simulation studies were de-signed, to demonstrate the asymptotically normally distributed of the maximum likelihood estimators of Hypertabastic’s parameter, to validate of the asymptotically property of Y2n test statistic for Hypertabastic distribution when the right censoring probability equal 0% and 20%.n the last chapter, we applied those two parametric models above to three scenes ofthe real-life data. The first one was done the data set given by Freireich et al. on thecomparison of two treatment groups with additional information about log white blood cellcount, to test the ability of a therapy to prolong the remission times of the acute leukemiapatients. It showed that Hypertabastic AFT model is an accurate model for this dataset.The second one was done on the brain tumour study with malignant glioma patients, givenby Sauerbrei & Schumacher. It showed that the best model is Hypertabastic PH onadding five significance covariates. The third application was done on the data set given by Semenova & Bitukov on the survival times of the multiple myeloma patients. We did not propose an exactly model for this dataset. Because of that was an existing oneintersection of survival times. We, therefore, suggest fitting other dynamic model as SimpleCross-Effect model for this dataset
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Lai, Mei-Yu, and 賴美佑. "Interval Estimation for the Bilateral Conformance Proportion under the Linear Regression Model." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/82101971601411268778.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立臺灣大學
農藝學研究所
100
Conformance proportion is commonly used in agriculture management and product evaluation, industrial product quality control or process improvement, environmental monitoring or assessment, pharmaceutical effectiveness evaluation, etc. The bilateral conformance proportion is defined as the probability of a quality characteristic that falls within a specification interval, which can be denoted by , where Y is the quality characteristic of interest and [A,B] is the specification interval. In this study, we focused on constructing confidence limits for the bilateral conformance proportion under the linear regression model. Two construction approaches are proposed. One is based on the concepts of a generalized pivotal quantity, and the other is adopted from the method by Wang and Lam (1996). Detailed simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of these two methods, by comparing their empirical coverage probabilities and expected lengths. The simulation results reveal that the generalized pivotal quantity based method appears to have better coverage probabilities and reasonable expected lengths, which can be suggested in solving generally practical problems. Although the performance of the Wang-Lam method is slightly inferior, it can still be implemented in practical use, due to its computational ease. In addition, some examples are given to illustrate the proposed methods.
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Keithlin, Jessica. "A Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression of the Proportion of Campylobacter, Non- typhoidal Salmonella and E. coli O157 Cases that Develop Chronic Sequelae." Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10214/5198.
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Understanding of chronic sequelae development after infection with foodborne pathogens is limited and an increased understanding could assist with the development of more accurate burden of disease estimates. The purpose of this thesis was to determine via systematic review and meta-analysis of the published international literature, the proportion of cases of Salmonella, Campylobacter and E. coli O157 that will develop the chronic sequelae of reactive arthritis, haemolytic uraemic syndrome, irritable bowel syndrome, inflammatory bowel disease or Guillain Barré syndrome. This information can be used to increase our understanding of the relationship between infection and the development of long term health complications while providing a key piece of information for the development of accurate burden of disease estimates.Canadian Institutes of Health Research Institute of Population and Public Health/Public Health Agency of Canada, Applied Public Health Research Chair (awarded to Jan M. Sargeant)
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Shieh, Meng-Shiou. "Correction methods, approximate biases, and inference for misclassified data." 2009. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/dissertations/AAI3359160.
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When categorical data are misplaced into the wrong category, we say the data is affected by misclassification. This is common for data collection. It is well-known that naive estimators of category probabilities and coefficients for regression that ignore misclassification can be biased. In this dissertation, we develop methods to provide improved estimators and confidence intervals for a proportion when only a misclassified proxy is observed, and provide improved estimators and confidence intervals for regression coefficients when only misclassified covariates are observed. Following the introduction and literature review, we develop two estimators for a proportion, one which reduces the bias, and one with smaller mean square error. Then we will give two methods to find a confidence interval for a proportion, one using optimization techniques, and the other one using Fieller’s method. After that, we will focus on developing methods to find corrected estimators for coefficients of regression with misclassified covariates, with or without perfectly measured covariates, and with a known estimated misclassification/reclassification model. These correction methods use the score function approach, regression calibration and a mixture model. We also use Fieller’s method to find a confidence interval for the slope of simple regression with misclassified binary covariates. Finally, we use simulation to demonstrate the performance of our proposed methods.
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Moeller, Megan Michelle. "Methods for analyzing proportions." 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/22553.
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The analysis of proportions is interesting and noteworthy in that there are no commonly accepted regression models for analyzing proportions; indeed, researchers most often use ordinary least squares to estimate the parameters of a linear regression model for proportional data. Such an approach, however, violates several assumptions of the Classical Linear Regression Model. This report outlines the general linear model and the problems associated with using this approach to model proportions and considers a variety of alternate approaches that researchers have taken to model proportions. These alternatives include transforming the dependent variable, a censored regression (Tobit) model, a Fractional Logit model, and Beta Regression. All of the approaches considered are implemented in a case study analyzing Rice party difference scores in the 93rd to 108th Congress. A comparison of the results from each approach confirms the findings of other researchers that Beta regression is the most preferred approach for modeling proportions.text
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Huang, Mei-Chi, and 黃梅綺. "Unilateral Conformance Proportions under Simple Linear Regression Models." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/54579353340199011970.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立臺灣大學
農藝學研究所
104
In this study, we investigate the construction of lower confidence limit for unilateral conformance proportions under a simple linear regression model. Let a quality characteristic of interest be denoted by Y, then P(Y≥A) or P(Y≤B) are called the unilateral conformance proportions, where A and B denote the specification acceptance limits. We consider the situation that Y is fitted by the simple linear regression model, and develop an approach for constructing lower confidence limits for the unilateral conformance proportions based on the concept of a generalized pivotal quantity (GPQ). The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through detailed simulation studies and real data analysis. It is shown that the proposed method is easy to implement and reasonably satisfactory for practical use.
47
HSU, CHIA-CHIEN, and 許家蒨. "Generalizing Logistic Regression Models to Two Sample Independent Test for Proportions." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/87800072885197079118.
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碩士國立臺北大學
統計學系
92
Many clinical trials are conducted to develop a new drug or a new treatment comparing to an existing drug or a placebo. Usually, a new drug or a new treatment has to be proved to be more effective than that for the existing drug or placebo before practicing the new treatment or marketing the new drug. Suppose the effectiveness of a new drug is measured as a success (S) or a failure (F). There are many existing tests can be used to examine the effectiveness of the new drug for a binary response variable. For instance, a two independent sample Z test for proportions, the Pearson chi-square test, and the Likelihood ratio test. From the previous result, the power can be promoted by introducing the covariate into the experimental design under the same sample size. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to derive new tests that implying the information from a covariate. We use the logistic regression to construct the probability of success to construct the new test. Using the Monte Carlo simulations, the proposed methods have better powers than that for the conventional methods. Both proposed methods and conventional methods do not always preserve the type I errors.
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Jeng, Ya-chung, and 鄭雅中. "Regression Estimation for Medical Costs Based on Proportional Means Models." Thesis, 2002. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/81392270563232577835.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
流行病學研究所
90
A cost-effectiveness analysis for a chronic or fatal disease is an important issue to public health. To address such issue, follow-up studies of medical costs on these diseases are often conducted, and the medical costs may be right censored during the follow-up period. Regression analysis is considered to explore the relationship between the medical costs and the covariates of interest. However, the traditional assumption of independency between complete and incomplete data used in the Cox’s regression model cannot be applied to censored medical costs. To handle the incomplete medical costs, proportional means models are considered in this thesis. In chapter two, we review some literatures for analyzing censored medical costs. Then, proposed estimating methods based on the proportional means model, which are extended from Lin’s methods (2000 ab), are introduced in chapter three. In chapter four, simulation studies are conducted to compare the performance of estimators considered in chapter three. Finally, the estimating methods considered in chapter three are applied to a set of national health insurance in-patient data.
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Chen, Yu-Chieh, and 陳禹捷. "Applications of an extended proportional odds model for survival regression." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98621516341682577035.
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Marques, José Lourenço Pires. "Application of alternative regression models to deal with proportions as dependent variables." Master's thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/3355.
Full textAbstract:
The main purpose of this thesis is to consider different approaches to deal with proportions as dependent variables in regression models.
The Classical Linear Regression Model (CLRM) is the approach that most researchers apply to their data. However, the CLRM is inappropriate to deal with bounded variables whose response is restricted into the interval (0, 1) as dependent variables since it may possibly yield fitted values for the variable of interest that surpass its lower and upper limits.
Due to the CLRM weaknesses, in this thesis we will consider some alternative parametric regression models that include the additive logistic normal distribution, the censored normal distribution, the Beta distribution and the normal distribution with nonlinear response function. A quasi-parametric regression approach will also be considered.
In the empirical case we consider a dataset with financial information from US firms. The dependent variable of the models we intend to estimate is the debt to maturity, which is measured as a proportion of the total debt of the firm that has a maturity larger than three years. The explanatory variables are the abnormal earnings, the asset maturity and the size of the firm.
To compare the above models will be used the Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz criterion (SBC). The distribution that displays the lowest values on both criteria is the best to study proportions as dependent variables. We will also study the adjusted value of each model.Com esta tese pretendem-se considerar vários modelos de regressão alternativos ao lidar com proporções, enquanto variáveis dependentes num modelo de regressão. O método mais utilizado pelos investigadores é o modelo clássico de regressão linear. Contudo, esta não é a abordagem mais indicada para a análise de rácios ou proporções contidas no intervalo (0, 1) enquanto variáveis dependentes, pois os valores gerados por este método tendem a ultrapassar esses limites. Deste modo, serão apresentados como alternativas alguns modelos de regressão paramétricos, que incluem a distribuição aditiva logística normal, a distribuição censurada, a distribuição Beta e a distribuição normal com uma função de resposta não-linear. Será também apresentado um modelo de regressão quase-paramétrico. No caso empírico consideramos uma base de dados com informação financeira de empresas norte-americanas. A variável dependente dos modelos que pretendemos estudar é a maturidade da dívida, que é medida como a proporção da dívida total da empresa com prazo superior a três anos. As variáveis explicativas destes modelos são os ganhos anormais, a dimensão da empresa e a maturidade do activo. Na comparação dos modelos irão ser utilizados os critérios de informação de Akaike e de Schwarz. O modelo que apresentar menores valores em ambos os critérios é o que melhor lida com proporções enquanto variáveis dependentes. Também faremos uma breve análise ao valor do (R-quadrado) ajustado de cada modelo.