Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Real option theory (ROT)'

I programmi complessi, nelle numerose forme previste dal quadro legislativo vigente, comportano svariate conseguenze economiche, che andrebbero opportunamente valutate secondo prospettive ex-ante, in itinere ed ex-post. Gli strumenti individuati dalla normativa hanno, sino ad oggi, privilegiato, attraverso lo strumento dello Studio di Fattibilità, il punto di vista ex-ante, utile soprattutto per valutare le risorse necessarie e individuare le fonti di finanziamento. Il lavoro di tesi prende spunto proprio dalla necessità di predisporre nuovi strumenti di valutazione in itinere di programmi complessi, come quelli che, ad esempio, sono stati oggetto dei recenti interventi di riqualificazione urbana nelle grandi città italiane. Si vuole sperimentare la possibilità di intervenire sui parametri economico-finanziari, nel momento in cui, rispetto alle scelte delineate in fase di ideazione, si rendono necessari opportuni aggiustamenti relativi alle variabili in grado di influenzare gli obiettivi inizialmente individuati dal programma. Si tratta quindi del tentativo di incorporare l’informazione che giunge soltanto durante la fase di attuazione del progetto. A tale proposito, il Capitolo 2 considera, a titolo esemplificativo, un caso di valutazione ex-ante di un’area di trasformazione urbana a Torino, per metterne in evidenza le criticità dal punto di vista dello strumento di valutazione impiegato. Quando si parla di operatori coinvolti nelle trasformazioni territoriali e di processo di sviluppo immobiliare, occorre infatti considerare, la forte interazione che normalmente avviene, attraverso la contrattazione e la negoziazione, tra soggetto pubblico e privato. La crescente scarsità di risorse costringe infatti le amministrazioni pubbliche, oltre a selezionare gli investimenti sul territorio, anche a ricercare partner privati, fondamentali per la realizzazione di programmi complessi altrimenti insostenibili. Negli ultimi anni, la collaborazione tra pubblico e privato ha assunto numerose forme, appositamente regolamentate, che rappresentano probabilmente una casistica interessante da indagare. Il Capitolo 1 prende infatti in considerazione la storia di tale rapporto, che si evince dagli strumenti urbanistici utilizzati nell’attuazione delle politiche di governo del territorio, dagli anni ’50 sino ad oggi. Vengono chiarite le molteplici tipologie di programmi introdotti su base comunitaria, nazionale e regionale, nonché il rapporto che questi possono instaurare con la strumentazione urbanistica ordinaria, che varia, di volta in volta, secondo la tipologia di ogni programma. Allo scopo di sviluppare tale ragionamento su base economico-estimativa, la tesi affronta criticamente la possibilità di adattare nuovi strumenti di valutazione in itinere ad un contesto di collaborazione fra pubblico e privato, ove esiste un problema di condivisione e ripartizione dei rischi ma, allo stesso tempo, di redistribuzione della redditività in funzione dei bisogni della collettività. A tale scopo, il Capitolo 3 approfondisce, anche dal punto di vista epistemologico, la questione dell’approccio alla valutazione in una nuova prospettiva. Esso mette a confronto le matrici teoriche del Project Management (PM) e della Teoria delle Opzioni Reali (Real Option Theory – ROT). Entrambi gli approcci si confrontano in effetti con la variabile temporale, fornendo tuttavia soluzioni diverse alla gestione della componente incerta legata alla realizzazione di un progetto. Nel campo degli investimenti immobiliari è infatti necessaria una tecnica che vada oltre il concetto di management del progetto, in grado di risolvere l’incertezza e il rischio connessi alle scelte legate espressamente alle destinazioni d’uso. Occorre ricordare che decisioni simultanee vs. sequenziali d’investimento caratterizzano spesso i mercati immobiliari. Un programma che prevede al suo interno opzioni che garantiscono un adeguato livello di flessibilità, può rappresentare senza dubbio un vantaggio per entrambi gli operatori interessati alla sua attuazione. Il Capitolo 3 evidenzia, in sintesi, come la ROT applicata al settore immobiliare offra la possibilità di definire, in fase di contrattazione tra pubblico e privato, un set di opzioni da poter esercitare durante le successive fasi di realizzazione. In particolare, tale Capitolo serve da introduzione all’analisi di un secondo caso di studio che porterà alle conclusioni del presente lavoro.

PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
No ramo imobiliário, a tomada de decisão deve ser rápida e precisa. São muitas as incertezas que podem afetar um projeto. Por isso, o Estudo de Viabilidade é fator determinante de sucesso ou fracasso de uma incorporação. Hoje o método de análise largamente utilizado é o do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado (FDC), onde o valor do projeto e seus parâmetros de resultado baseiam-se no Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) do fluxo. Porém, este método não considera as diferentes decisões gerenciais que podem ser tomadas durante a vida útil do empreendimento em função de novas informações adquiridas ao longo do tempo. A decisão gerencial pode atuar mudando o rumo do empreendimento de maneira a maximizar os resultados a serem obtidos e mensurar seu real valor. Este trabalho se propõe a, de forma simples, introduzir a ferramenta de análise pela Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR), abordada na literatura, mas ainda negligenciada pelo mercado imobiliário. Esta teoria utilizada isoladamente não é capaz de retratar o dia-a-dia do incorporador. No mercado, a TOR torna-se falha utilizada sem a abordagem da Teoria dos Jogos, por não considerar os efeitos nocivos da concorrência nos objetivos da empresa. Sendo assim, o objetivo foi não só auxiliar na melhor avaliação de projetos pela TOR, considerando incertezas das mudanças econômicas mundiais e flexibilidade de tomada de decisão na maximização do resultado, como também analisar pela Teoria dos Jogos, a influência dos concorrentes nos objetivos inerentes ao projeto.
In Real Estate, the decision must be fast and accurate. There are many uncertainties that may affect projects. Therefore, the economic feasibility study is a critical factor of success or failure of an estate project. Currently the widely used analytical method is the discounted cash flow, in which the project s outcome and value are based on Net Present Value of the cash flow. However, this method does not consider the various management decisions that may be taken during the project life. The management decision may influence changing the course of estate development to maximize the financial results and measure their real value. This work aims to, in a simple way, introduce the analytical tool for Real Options Theory (ROT), discussed in the literature, but still neglected by the real estate market. This theory used in isolation isn t able to portray the developers daily. In the real estate market, the ROT becomes incorrect used without the Game Theory concepts, disregarding the competition effect s on the company s goals. Therefore, this work goes beyond a better project assessment through ROT, considering economic uncertainties and flexibility on decision making, but also considering the perspective of game theory, adding the influence of competitors actions on projects goals.

A demanda por commodities mineral e energético no mundo vem sofrendo um forte aumento nos últimos anos causado principalmente pelo crescimento da economia chinesa. No setor de minério de ferro movimentos de aquisições e consolidações são cada vez mais freqüentes pois grandes grupos siderúrgicos buscam, por meio de aquisições, garantir o fornecimento de seu principal insumo e se proteger contra a forte variação do preço no mercado e, por outro lado, empresas de mineração, ao se consolidarem, se protegem contra essas ameaças. A avaliação de novos projetos de mineração é fundamental para identificar o valor da empresa ao considerarmos que uma empresa de mineração é um portfólio de projetos. Dada as características de alguns projetos de mineração, o uso da Teoria de Opções Reais permite uma avaliação mais eficiente do valor destes projetos em função das flexibilidades gerenciais e incertezas de mercado. Esta dissertação procura rever e aplicar os conceitos de opções reais utilizando a probabilidade neutra ao risco e processo estocástico com drifts de crescimento da variável de incerteza através de um projeto de mineração hipotético com a opção de expandir sua capacidade em um prazo de 5 anos.
The world demand for mineral and energetic commodities is rising strongly in the last years due mainly to the growth of the Chinese economy. In the iron ore industry movements of merger and acquisition are more frequent therefore steel producers groups are looking to, by means of acquisition, guarantee their iron ore supply and to protect against the huge volatility of price in the market. On the other hand mining companies are protecting their business against these threats by merger operations. In this context, the valuation of new mining projects is essential to identify the enterprise value, considering that a mining company is a portfolio of projects. Given the characteristics of some mining projects, the use of the Real Option Theory allows a more efficiently valuation be done in presence of flexibilities and market uncertainties. This thesis intent to apply the concepts of real option, considering the risk neutral probability and stochastic process with growth drift of the variable of uncertainty, thru a hypothetic mining project, which holds a capacity expansion option that can be exercised in the five year time.

PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
O Setor Elétrico Brasileiro (SEB) vem passando por diversas mudanças. A reforma iniciada em 1993 implicou na alteração da característica do setor de ser até então majoritariamente estatal. As alterações no SEB nos anos de 2003 e 2004 implementaram os chamados Ambientes de Contratação Regulado e Livre, respectivamente ACR e ACL. Recentemente, mais mudanças estruturais marcaram o SEB com a nova Lei de número 12.783/13, que trata da renovação das concessões do setor. Neste contexto, destacam-se os empreendimentos eólicos e seu aumento de participação na matriz elétrica brasileira. A matriz elétrica brasileira permanece majoritariamente hídrica, contudo o segmento eólico tem se destacado nos leilões de energia, apresentando com frequencia preços mais competitivos que projetos de Pequenas Centrais Hidrelétricas (PCHs) e térmicas movidas à biomassa. Desta forma, dada a importância crescente da fonte eólica de energia, o presente trabalho propõe a aplicação de um modelo de avaliação de uma planta eólica em condições de incerteza, com a utilização da Teoria das Opções Reais. A flexibilidade abordada no trabalho em tela foi incorporada na escolha do mecanismo de venda da energia gerada. Neste sentido, considerou-se que o montante de energia não negociado no ACR (através de Leilões regulados) poderá ter a opção de ser negociado em contratos bilaterais no ACL ou liquidado no mercado de curto prazo ao Preço de Liquidação de Diferenças (PLD). Os resultados indicaram um aumento no valor do projeto com a inclusão desta flexibilidade.
The Brazilian Electric Power Industry (SEB) has been going through many changes. The reform begun in 1993 resulted in a modification on characteristics of this sector that was mainly controlled by the government until that time. The changes in SEB occurred in 2003 and 2004 resulted in the creation of the Regulated Contracting Environment (ACR) and the Free Contracting Environment (ACL). Recently, new modifications happened in this sector with the law number 12.783/13, which regulates the Renovation of Concessions in the sector. In this context, it can be highlighted the wind power projects and their increasing participation in Brazilian electricity generation matrix. The Brazilian electricity generation matrix is still concentrated in hydroelectrical generation. However, wind power plants have been standing out in the last auctions, with more competitive prices than Small Hydro Power (PCH) and biomass projects. Therefore, considering the increasing importance of wind power source, this work proposes the application of an investment model under uncertainty for evaluating a wind power plant using the Real Option Theory. The flexibility used in this work refers to the choice of the mechanism for selling the generated energy. In this sense, it was assumed that the amount of generated energy which wouldn’t be contracted in the ACR could have the possibility of being negotiated in contracts in the ACL or it would be sold in the short-term market through the Differences Settlement Price (PLD). Results indicate an increase in the project value with the inclusion of this flexibility.

PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
Segundo a Associação de Comércio Exterior do Brasil, o minério de ferro representou 12,8 porcento do total exportado pelo Brasil em 2012, se mantendo como primeiro produto, em valor, na pauta de exportação brasileira. Nesse contexto, o complexo Carajás, localizado no sudeste do estado do Pará em operação desde 1985, destaca-se por ser a maior reserva do país e por ter o minério com maior teor de ferro do mundo. Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar o projeto de expansão de Carajás, conhecido como projeto S11D,através da teoria de opções reais, buscando considerar o valor da flexibilidade gerencial existente no projeto e potenciais incertezas de mercado de forma a obter uma avaliação mais eficaz de um ativo tão representativo para o país. Os resultados indicam que a opção de expansão aumenta do valor do projeto de 77 bilhões de dólares para 99 bilhões de dólares, indicando o valor da opção em 22 bilhões de dólares.
According to the Brazilian External Association of Commerce, iron ore represented 12,8 percent of total export revenue in 2012, being the first product, at value, on the Brazilian export market share. In this context, Carajás Complex, located at south east of Pará State in operation since 1985, express itself from being the biggest reserve in the country and for having the highest iron ore content of the world. The target of this work is to evaluate the Carajás expansion project, known as S11D project, through Real Option Theory, considering the value of management flexibility existing in this project and potential market uncertainties in which obtain a valuation more efficient from an asset so representative to the country. The results indicate that the expansion option raises the project value from 77 billion dollars to 99 billion dollars, resulting the option value of 22 billion dollars.

A metodologia tradicional do fluxo de caixa descontado, amplamente adotado pelas empresas para avaliar investimentos e tomar decisões, possui diversas limitações quando a análise está sujeita a incertezas e existem flexibilidades gerenciais. A teoria de opções reais surge como uma metodologia mais adequada para este tipo de cenário, uma vez que permite a avaliação do investimento em função das flexibilidades incluídas no projeto que podem ser modeladas de maneira semelhante ao cálculo do valor de uma opção financeira do mercado de capitais. Este trabalho analisa um investimento para um projeto de uma empresa que capta recursos através da formação de um fundo de Venture Capital. A utilização do método de opções reais para avaliação de projetos financiados através deste tipo de captação é recomendada, uma vez que os mesmos encontram-se em estágio de desenvolvimento inicial, submetidos a um ambiente de forte incerteza e com a existência de flexibilidades gerenciais que afetam a tomada de decisão. A indústria de Venture Capital é tipicamente representada por empresas de elevado crescimento nos primeiros anos de investimento e forte volatilidade dos retornos esperados (incerteza). O projeto apresentou VPL negativo quando a abordagem tradicional é utilizada e, ao aplicar a metodologia de opções reais, foi possível perceber que este resultado subestima o valor do projeto e leva a uma tomada de decisão não ótima. A partir deste trabalho, conclui-se que, em cenários de grande incerteza e existência de flexibilidades, como é o caso de investimentos de Venture Capital, o método de valoração mais adequado é a metodologia de opções reais.
The traditional discounted cash flow method, which is commonly used by companies to analyze capital budgeting investments, has important limitations when uncertainty and managerial flexibility are present. For these types of project, option pricing methods are more appropriate, since they allow the value of these managerial flexibilities to be adequately captured and valued. In this work we analyze the investment in a project through a venture capital fund, and show that the use of the real option method for the valutation of this type of projects and financing scheme is recommended, given these projects are in the initial stages of development, have a high degree of uncertainty and allow significant managerial flexibility. The Venture Capital industry is typically represented by firms with high growth rates in their initial years and high volatility of the expected returns. The results show that the project has a negative NPV under the traditional discounted cash flow method, but with real option valuation the project value was significantly higher, which shows that non optimal decisions may occur if project flexibility is not valued. We conclude that when high levels of uncertainty and flexibility exist, such as is the case of investments in Venture Capital projects, the real options method provides a more adequate value for the project.

COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
Este trabalho se propõe a orientar como utilizar de forma conjunta e complementar os conceitos de Estratégia Empresarial e Finanças, mais especificamente da Teoria de Opções Reais, uma moderna teoria de análise de investimentos sob incerteza. Nas empresas vem coexistindo dois sistemas para a alocação de recursos: o planejamento estratégico e a orçamentação de capital, em geral, o primeiro define as iniciativas estratégicas e o segundo faz a verificação de viabilidade econômico-financeira destas iniciativas. Entretanto, muitas vezes a intuição vai contra as análises financeiras tradicionais. Além disso, a complexidade da tomada de decisão estratégica em um ambiente de incerteza vem crescendo em função do acelerado dinamismo do mercado e da infinidade de oportunidades que aparecem em um mundo altamente globalizado e conectado. Portanto, a união dos conceitos atualmente dispersos nestes dois sistemas é de fundamental importância para a deliberação e execução de estratégias consistentes e lucrativas. A Teoria de Opções Reais, cujas características se aproximam mais da realidade estratégica por considerar as flexibilidades gerenciais e não ter a abordagem passiva das ferramentas tradicionais, aparece, então, como uma resposta a esta necessidade de aproximação. Neste contexto, esta dissertação busca analisar a contribuição desta teoria à Estratégia Empresarial e construir um modelo que aproxime estes dois campos de estudo e direcione a prática de planejamento e execução de investimentos estratégicos.
This work intends to give guidance on how to use jointly and complementarily the concepts of Corporate Strategy and Finance, specifically the Theory of Real Options, a modern theory of investment analysis under uncertainty. In corporate practice are co-existing two systems for resource allocation, strategic planning and capital budgeting. Usually the first defines the strategic initiatives and the second checks the economic viability of these initiatives. However, intuition often goes against the traditional financial analysis. Moreover, the complexity of strategic decision making in an uncertain environment is growing rapidly as a function of market dynamics and the myriad of opportunities that appear in a highly globalized and connected world. Therefore, the union of these two concepts currently dispersed in these systems is of fundamental importance for the deliberation and execution of consistent and profitable strategies. Real Options Theory, whose characteristics are closer to reality by considering the strategic and managerial flexibility and not having the passive approach of traditional tools, then appears as a response to this need for approximation. In this context, this dissertation seeks to analyze the contribution of this theory to business strategy and build a model that combines these two fields of study and directs the practice of planning and execution of strategic investments.

For several decades, management scholars have extolled the virtues of using real option logic when making decisions under uncertainty. Real option logic suggests that in such situations, firms might be better off deferring or staging investments, reducing potential financial losses, while at the same time securing an option to grow (or abandon) the investment when uncertainty abates. Our analysis of the empirical research published in leading management journals over the past 25 years suggests that while some progress has been made, much more work needs to be done. We still do not have the answers to critical questions such as: Which entrepreneurial/managerial traits impact the identification or exploitation of real options? Do multiple types of uncertainties interact with each other and influence real option decisions? Addressing these and other issues identified in our study can help improve our understanding of the usefulness of real option logic in management.

This thesis presents several problems based on papers written jointly by the author and Dr. Christian-Oliver Ewald. Firstly, the author extends the model presented by Fershtman and Nitzan (1991), which studies a deterministic differential public good game. Two types of volatility are considered. In the first case the volatility of the diffusion term is dependent on the current level of public good, while in the second case the volatility is dependent on the current rate of public good provision by the agents. The result in the latter case is qualitatively different from the first one. These results are discussed in detail, along with numerical examples. Secondly, two existing lines of research in game theoretic studies of fisheries are combined and extended. The first line of research is the inclusion of the aspect of predation and the consideration of multi-species fisheries within classical game theoretic fishery models. The second line of research includes continuous time and uncertainty. This thesis considers a two species fishery game and compares the results of this with several cases. Thirdly, a model of a fishery is developed in which the dynamic of the unharvested fish population is given by the stochastic logistic growth equation and it is assumed that the fishery harvests the fish population following a constant effort strategy. Explicit formulas for optimal fishing effort are derived in problems considered and the effects of uncertainty, risk aversion and mean reversion speed on fishing efforts are investigated. Fourthly, a Dixit and Pindyck type irreversible investment problem in continuous time is solved, using the assumption that the project value follows a Cox-Ingersoll- Ross process. This solution differs from the two classical cases of geometric Brownian motion and geometric mean reversion and these differences are examined. The aim is to find the optimal stopping time, which can be applied to the problem of extracting resources.

This thesis contains a discussion of four problems arising from the application of stochastic differential equations and real option theory to investment decision problems in a continuous-time framework. It is based on four papers written jointly with the author’s supervisor. In the first problem, we study an evolutionary stock market model in a continuous-time framework where uncertainty in dividends is produced by a single Wiener process. The model is an adaptation to a continuous-time framework of a discrete evolutionary stock market model developed by Evstigneev, Hens and Schenk-Hoppé (2006). We consider the case of fix-mix strategies and derive the stochastic differential equations which determine the evolution of the wealth processes of the various market players. The wealth dynamics for various initial set-ups of the market are simulated. In the second problem, we apply an entry-exit model in real option theory to study concessionary agreements between a private company and a state government to run a privatised business or project. The private company can choose the time to enter into the agreement and can also choose the time to exit the agreement if the project becomes unprofitable. An early termination of the agreement by the company might mean that it has to pay a penalty fee to the government. Optimal times for the company to enter and exit the agreement are calculated. The dynamics of the project are assumed to follow either a geometric mean reversion process or geometric Brownian motion. A comparative analysis is provided. Particular emphasis is given to the role of uncertainty and how uncertainty affects the average time that the concessionary agreement is active. The effect of uncertainty is studied by using Monte Carlo simulation. In the third problem, we study numerical methods for solving stochastic optimal control problems which are linear in the control. In particular, we investigate methods based on spline functions for solving the two-point boundary value problems that arise from the method of dynamic programming. In the general case, where only the value function and its first derivative are guaranteed to be continuous, piecewise quadratic polynomials are used in the solution. However, under certain conditions, the continuity of the second derivative is also guaranteed. In this case, piecewise cubic polynomials are used in the solution. We show how the computational time and memory requirements of the solution algorithm can be improved by effectively reducing the dimension of the problem. Numerical examples which demonstrate the effectiveness of our method are provided. Lastly, we study the situation where, by partial privatisation, a government gives a private company the opportunity to invest in a government-owned business. After payment of an initial instalment cost, the private company’s investments are assumed to be flexible within a range [0, k] while the investment in the business continues. We model the problem in a real option framework and use a geometric mean reversion process to describe the dynamics of the business. We use the method of dynamic programming to determine the optimal time for the private company to enter and pay the initial instalment cost as well as the optimal dynamic investment strategy that it follows afterwards. Since an analytic solution cannot be obtained for the dynamic programming equations, we use quadratic splines to obtain a numerical solution. Finally we determine the optimal degree of privatisation in our model from the perspective of the government.

There is a gap in the existing empirical literature on the investment decision of banks in financial centres. While there are empirical tests with micro analytic data on the investment decisions of banks in the United States and Japan, this is not the case of London. This study empirically tests the factors affecting the investment decision of banks in the City of London through a unique set of interviews with senior managers in the industry and ~ls in the mentioned gap in the existing empirical literature. The study puts the existing applications of the theory of investment decisions of firms in foreign markets to banks into a logically consistent sequence and brings in other factors from real option theory. In particular, it integrates the existing applications within a profit- maximisation model of the behaviour of banks in financial centres. The hypotheses are derived through comparative static analysis. The empirical findings, in agreement with the profit maximisation theory, broadly conform to the existing empirical findings and suggest the existence of strong option effects in the investment decision of banks in the City of London. To date applications of real option theory have found options of a contractual nature derived from informal arrangements in joint ventures to have great importance in the context of the investment decisions of manufacturing enterprises. The empirical findings of this study suggest that options of a non-contractual nature have greater importance in the context of the investment decision of banks in foreign markets.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002.
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ENGLISH ABSTRACT: With the trends of business moving away from large, corporate companies to small, flexible and innovative alternatives, the need to value new companies are becoming important. A new company generally does not have substantial historical data available and it is therefore difficult to determine potential revenue streams and hence accurate valuations. The focus of this study is to find an appropriate method to attempt the valuation of a new company and this is explained by means of a case study. Three basic approaches exist to value companies. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method analyses risk and return to estimate a discount rate and presents the value of the company as a Net Present Value (NPV). Relative Valuation methods compare the fundamentals of a company to that of other companies. Contingent Claim Valuation methods base the value of a company on the fact that decisions may be deferred into the future until more information is evident. The basis of this valuation technique is that of Option Pricing Theory in which the Black-Scholes technique and binomial models are used .: This method is normally used on assets that have optionlike features e.g. equity in a company, natural resource rights, product patents or any decision that may be deferred into the future. Decisions (options) deferred may be identified as growth-, staged-, flexibility-, exit-, learning- and expanding options. This is also known as the Real Option Pricing Theory. According to this model the investment proposal may be mapped as a series of call options (Luehrman, 1998a). The amount of money expended in the project corresponds to the option's exercise price (X), the present value of the asset built or acquired corresponds to the stock price (S), the length of time the company can defer the investment decision corresponds to the option's time to expiration (t) and the uncertainty about the future value of the project's cashflow corresponds to the standard deviation of return on the stock (c). Seven steps are used to obtain the value of the call option and the value is reflected by two option-value metries namely the value-to-cost (NPVq) and cumulative volatility (cr--Jt).The two metries are plotteá on a graph (defined as Options Space) in order to visualize and interpret the results. Mushroom Biomedical Systems developed three highly novel and patented products. The company was valued using the conventional OeF method and valued as a staged investment using the Real Option Pricing Theory according to Luehrman's model (1998a). The values of two products are similar using the OeF and Real Options methods. Most of the investment capital was required during the first phases of these products resulting in the investment of the second phases not holding high risks or value. The value of the third product is significantly higher using the Real Options method compared to the OeF. This is ascribed to the forced delay of phase one. The value of this future decision is worth more than the current decision due to expected new information that might arise. By "creating an option" value is added by forcing management to actively make two decisions about the continuation of the project at a future date. Applying Real Option Pricing Theory suggests inherent value in uncertainty when there is freedom to choose different courses of action in the face of different market conditions. With the OeF analysis the impact of risk is seen as depressing the value of the investment. By contrast, real options show that risk can be influenced through managerial flexibility, which becomes a central instrument to create value.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die beweging van die besigheidswêreld vanaf groot korporatiewe maatskappye na kleiner, buigsame en innoverende alternatiewe het 'n behoefte geskep om die waarde van sulke nuwe maatskappye te kan bepaal. 'n Nuwe maatskappy het tipies nie historiese data beskikbaar nie wat die vooruitskatting van potensiële inkomste strome en dus akkurate waardasies moeilik maak. Die fokus van hierdie studie is die bepaling van 'n toepaslike metode om die waarde van 'n nuwe maatskappy te bepaal en dit word deur middel van 'n gevalle studie verduidelik. Drie basiese metodes bestaan om maatskappye te waardeer. Die Verdiskonteerde Kontantvloei Stroom (VKS) metode gebruik risiko en opbrengs om 'n verdiskonteringskoers te bepaal en reflekteer die waarde van die maatskappy as die Netto Teenswoordige Waarde (NTW). Relatiewe Waardasie metodes vergelyk die fundamentele eienskappe van 'n maatskappy met die van ander maatskappye. Die Gebeurlikheids Waardasie metode koppel waarde aan die feit dat besluite uitgestel kan word totdat meer informasie beskikbaar is. Die basis van hierdie tegniek is Opsie Teorie waarin die Black-Scholes tegniek en binomiaal model gebruik word. Hierdie metode word gewoonlik gebruik waar bates "opsie-tipe" eienskappe besit soos aandeelhouding in 'n maatskappy, natuurlike mynregte; produk patente of enige besluit wat uitgestel kan word na 'n datum in die toekoms. Besluite (opsies) wat uitgestel word kan geïdentifiseer word as groei-, stap-vir-stap-, buigbaarheids-, uittree-, lerings- en uitbreidingsopsies. Hierdie metode staan ook bekend as die Ware Opsie Prysings Teorie. Volgens hierdie metode kan 'n beleggingsgeleentheid voorgestel word as 'n reeks koopopsies (Luehrman, 1998a). Die totale uitgawe word voorgestel deur die uitoefeningsprys (X), die teenswoordige waarde van die bate word voorgestel deur die aandeel waarde (S), die tydperk wat die besluit uitgestel kan word, word voorgestel deur die opsie vervaltyd (t), en die onsekerheid van die bate se kontantvloeistroom word voorgestel deur die standaardafwyking van die opbrengs van die bate (c). Sewe stappe word geneem om die waarde van die koopopsie te bepaal wat uitgedruk word deur twee opsiewaarde komponente naamlik waarde-tot-koste (NPVq) en kummulatiewe volatiliteit ((1'Jt). Die twee komponente word grafies voorgestel (genoem Opsie Spasie) om resultate te visualiseer en te interpreteer. Mushroom Biomedical Systems het drie unieke en gepatenteerde produkte ontwikkel. Die maatskappy is met die konvensionele VKS metode gewaardeer en volgens Luehrman (1998a) se Ware Opsie Prysings model as 'n stap-vir-stap opsie gewaardeer. Die waardes van twee van die produkte is dieselfde met die VKS metode en die Opsie Teorie metode. Die meeste van die kapitaal is tydens die eerste fases van die twee produkte benodig met die gevolg dat die tweede fases nie veel risiko of waarde inhou nie. Die waarde van die derde produk is aansienlik meer met die Opsie Teorie metode in vergelyking met die VKS metode. Dit word toegeskryf aan die gedwonge vertraging van fase een. Die waarde gekoppel daaraan om die besluit in die toekoms te neem is meer werd as om die besluit nou te neem a.g.v. verwagte nuwe informasie. Deur hierdie opsie "te skep" word waarde toegevoeg omdat bestuur gedwing word om aktief twee besluite in die toekoms te neem rakende die voortsetting van die projek. Die gebruik van Ware Opsie Prysings Teorie skep 'n inherente waarde wanneer daar verskillende besluite geneem kan word soos mark kondisies verander. Met die VKS metode word risiko gesien as 'n faktor wat waarde laat afneem. In teenstelling hiermee dui die Ware Opsie Teorie dat risiko beïnvloed kan word deur bestuur se vermoëns, wat 'n belangrike instrument is vir waardeskepping.

Bibliography: pages 65-66.
The legacy of apartheid in the social and economic fabric of South Africa is pervasive. More than two million households, with an average of five persons per household, are living in shacks or in hostels. Thus, the South African Government of National Unity as its most urgent priority has endeavoured to find solutions to this disastrous housing crisis. Thus, the Government proposed - amongst other measures - to establish a Government-supported Mortgage Indemnity Scheme. However, such loan-guarantees are not cost free. Moreover, since they are contingent liabilities, the contingency of which may be realised and thus impose a cost to the Government, it is important that such cost be known or estimated. Using the modified Merton's model of an analytic derivation of the cost of loan guarantees, this paper evaluates the potential cost that may be imposed to the Government. While the paper recognised that there may be scope for some kind of the Government loan guarantees, the overriding theme is that the Government should charge a fee for its loan guarantee. Moreover, it has also been illustrated that the main beneficiaries of the MIS will be: (a) households at the upper end of the low-cost housing market, and (b) private financial institutions which will be indemnified by the terms of MIS. Accordingly, the mere fact that the main beneficiaries will be those two categories of end-users and not these at the lower segment of the low-cost housing market suggests that the MIS may not attain its principal purpose - that of serving these in the lowest income group. Thus, there is no reason why the Government should bear the likely cost of the MIS. In contrast, the Government should charge a fee for its guarantee.

Current economic evaluations do not explicitly acknowledge that there are multiple decision points throughout the lifecycle of new health technologies which, in the presence of uncertainty and irreversible consequences of those decisions, influence value. Real options analysis (ROA) has been proposed to overcome these limitations. However, applications to date all assumed that decisions influencing the arrival of information are made by the same actors making the decisions on adoption. The aim of this thesis is to explicitly incorporate into health technology assessment (HTA) the impact of uncertainty on decision making about new health technologies in the presence of irreversibilities. I present a series of analyses comparing “traditional” economic evaluation methods to applications of ROA using the case study of drug-eluting stents (DES). The conventional application of ROA allowed for flexibility in decisions incorporating all economic consequences of changing decisions. Over and above uncertainty surrounding the current estimate of value, three major components contributing to the economic value of the new technology were assumed to also change over time. This type of analysis can be used to determine the optimal initial decision allowing for changes in decisions and the optimal timing for review. However, it assumes that new information will always be revealed, regardless of the original decision on adoption. To reflect the combined impact of coverage, pricing and research decisions in HTA and therefore to make information arrival endogenous, a more complex approach is suggested: a Real Options Game (ROG) combining ROA with a game theoretical approach. In the ROG the HTA body and the manufacturer are assumed to play a sequential, incomplete information game, where the manufacturer has control over the arrival of information. The manufacturer decides whether to submit evidence, reduce price and conduct more research, while the HTA body decides on adoption. The DES analysis modelled a series of decision points between 2005 and 2010, with decisions not depending on hindsight, but allowing for predicted changes in value, incorporating a drift in information and responses by the other party. Payoffs were estimated for both players using a probabilistic Markov model. Optimal strategies incorporating the impact of earlier decisions on research were determined. HTA is a dynamic and interactive process, therefore results of the ROA analyses sometimes suggested a different course of action compared to traditional analyses. The best decision may depend on predictions of how other parties will react, as well as likely evolution of the evidence base and the costs of decision reversal.

Cette thèse examine les décisions financières à travers la théorie des options Américaines et Exotiques. Dans un premier temps, nous avons présenté une revue de la littérature sur les options de type Américain. La tarification de l’option Américaine standard d’achat est revisitée en vue de fournir les pré-requis. Dans l’étape suivante, un nouveau type de contrat d’option, appelé Strangle Euro-American ou Strangle Hybride, a été introduit. Des formules analytiques ont été fournies pour leurs prix ainsi que leurs paramètres de gestion. Une nouvelle méthode est proposée pour calculer les intégrales qui définissent les bornes d’exercice anticipé. Il a été démontré que cette méthode est efficiente, précise et rapide pour la tarification de tous les types de Strangle voir au delà. Puis, nous avons examiné les options Step de type Américain. Nous avons démontré que les propriétés des options d’achat "vanille" ne s’appliquent pas aux Step dans certaines situations. Les formules d’évaluation et des paramètres de gestion ont été déterminés. Et enfin, nous avons considéré l’évaluation d’une firme détenant simultanément une option d’abandon et une option d’expansion de ses activités selon des conditions du marché (favorables ou défavorables). Les seuils critiques de décision ont été obtenus. Des formules analytiques pour la valeur de la firme ont été obtenues. Des simulations illustrent le comportement de ces seuils critiques de décisions anticipées
This thesis investigates the financial decisions through the theory of American and Exotic options. First, the literature on American-style derivatives is surveyed. The pricing of standard American call option in the early exercise premium representation is addressed in order to provide prerequisites for what follows. Second, a new variant of Strangle contracts, called Euro-American or Hybrid Strangles, is introduced and priced. Analytical formulas are provided for the prices of all these option contracts as well as their hedging parameters. A new quadrature is proposed to account for the systems of coupled integral equations that locate the early exercise boundaries. It is shown to be efficient, accurate, and fast for pricing all types of early exercisable strangles and more. Third, we examines the valuation of American Step options contract. The structures of the immediate exercise regions of the various contracts are identified. Typical properties of American vanilla calls are shown to fail in some cases. Formulas for prices and hedging parameters, for the American Step options, are derived. Finally, we consider the valuation of a firm holding simultaneously an option to expand and to abandon productions depending on the state of the market (good or bad) in a real option framework. Optimal decision levels are obtained. Analytical formulas for the firm’s value are provided. Numerical results document the behavior of the firm’s value and optimal exercise boundaries levels

PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
A introdução do carro Flex-fuel no mercado brasileiro em 2003 mudou a forma de decisão do consumidor. Se antes era necessário escolher o combustível pelo tipo de veículo, movido somente a gasolina ou somente a álcool, hoje é possível escolher um tipo de carro com duas opções de combustível. O carro Flex funciona com gasolina, etanol ou qualquer mistura desses combustíveis em qualquer proporção. Essa flexibilidade gera uma vantagem econômica para o seu proprietário, mas qual o benefício financeiro de um carro Flex-fuel em comparação a um carro movido somente à gasolina? Geograficamente, onde se localiza o proprietário que se beneficia mais dessa flexibilidade? Este estudo aplica a Teoria de Opções Reais na análise do valor da opção do carro Flex para as cinco regiões geográficas do Brasil: Nordeste, Norte, Centro-Oeste, Sudeste e Sul. São atendidas tanto as diferenças de preços regionais quanto a preferência de automóvel do consumidor dessas regiões. Para esse propósito, são considerados que os preços históricos dos combustíveis são estocásticos e seguem o Movimento de Reversão à Média Aritmético. A previsão dos preços e o valor da opção são gerados através da Simulação de Monte Carlo. Os resultados indicam que a opção de escolher o combustível mais barato no abastecimento adiciona considerável valor para o proprietário do carro Flex em todas as regiões e modelos de carro considerados, sendo a região Sudeste a mais beneficiada pela opção Flex.
The introduction of the Flex-fuel car to the Brazilian market in 2003 changed the way of decision of the customers. If before it was necessary to choose the fuel by the kind of vehicle, fueled only by gas or only by sugarcane ethanol, today it is possible to choose one kind of car with two fuel possibilities. The Flexfuel car can run with gas, sugarcane ethanol or any mix of those fuels at any proportion. This resulting flexibility generates an economic advantage for the car’s owners, but what are the finance benefits of having a Flex-fuel car in comparison to a gas-powered car? Where is geographically located the owner which benefits more from this flexibility? This study applies the Real Option method to analyze the option value of the Flex-fuel cars in each of the five geographic regions of Brazil: Northeast, North, Central-West, Southeast and South. It regards regional prices differences and their customer’s car preference. For this purpose, it considers that the historical fuel prices are stochastic and follow the Arithmetic Mean Reverting diffusion process. Monte Carlo Simulation provides the forecasted fuel prices and option values. The results show that the option to choose the cheapest fuel at the refueling moment adds significant value for the owner of all the regions and car models considered. The Southeast region is the most benefited from it.

De flesta företag strävar i huvudsak efter att maximera värdet av sitt företag och ett sätt att öka värdet av företaget kan vara att genomföra investeringar. En viktig faktor för att lyckas med sina investeringar är att skapa en strategi och att följa denna är avgörande för att nå dit man vill. Strategier kan utformas på olika sätt, men gemensamt för alla strategier är att de måste hantera osäkerhet. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka vad små- och medelstora företag upplever som osäkerhet vid investeringar samt hur företagen hanterar dessa. Valet av små- och medelstora företag grundar sig på att den största delen av tidigare forskning inom detta ämne är gjord på stora företag.   Forskningsstrategin för denna studie är explorativ, eftersom vi strävar efter att öka förståelsen kring ett delvis outforskat område. Vi har valt att avgränsa urvalet till företag inom industrisektorn i nordöstra Skåne. Studien utgörs av en kvalitativ metod, där djupgående intervjuer har genomförts med sex respondenter på olika företag. Tillsammans med respondenternas åsikter och tidigare forskning görs tolkningar av materialet vilket bidrar till skapande av slutsatser. De främsta slutsatserna som kan dras från denna uppsats är att osäkerhet vid investeringar hanteras väldigt olika beroende på företag, trots att de är verksamma inom samma sektor. Företagen använder olika typer av strategier för att hantera vad de upplever som osäkerhet, vissa i större utsträckning än andra.  Med denna uppsats önskar vi öka förståelsen för vilka osäkerheter som finns vid investeringar samt för hur denna osäkerhet kan hanteras. Vår intension är att små och medelstora företag ska, med hjälp av denna studie, kunna känna sig säkrare i sina investeringsbeslut i framtiden. Säkrare beslut leder till minskad osäkerhet och därmed ökar chanserna för lönsamma investeringar.
Most companies’ main goal is to maximize the value of their company and one way to increase the value of the company can be to invest. An important factor in order to succeed with an investment is to create a strategy and stick to it. Strategies can be structured in different ways, but what they all have in common is the need to manage uncertainties. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate what kind of uncertainty small- and medium sized enterprises experience when they invest, as well as how they manage this. Our selection of small- and medium sized enterprises is based on the fact that the majority of previous research within this particular subject investigates large companies. The research strategy in this thesis is mainly exploratory, since our goal is to increase the knowledge within this partly unexplored subject. We chose to narrow our selection down to companies within the industrial sector in the North East of Skåne. This thesis consists of a qualitative method, where in-depth interviews were conducted with six respondents from different companies. Together with the opinions from the respondents and previous research, interpretations were made which made it possible to create conclusions. The primary conclusion to be drawn from this thesis is that investment uncertainty can be managed in different ways depending on the company, even though the companies are operating within the same sector. The companies use different types of strategies in order to manage what they experience as uncertainty, although some of them use the strategies more than others. We wish to increase the understanding and the knowledge of existing uncertainties as well as how to manage these. Our intension is to help small- and medium sized enterprises feel more secure about their investment decisions in the future.  Safer decision-making results in reduced uncertainty thus increase the chances of making profitable investments.

A Tecnologia da Informação (TI) tem sido considerada ao longo dos anos como importante ferramenta para obtenção de vantagem competitiva, o que tem motivado as empresas investirem cada vez mais em tecnologia. Entretanto, o volume e a variedade destes investimentos exigem dos gestores novas ferramentas e técnicas para auxiliar no processo de justificativa e gestão da TI. Uma técnica tem sido apontada como uma das alternativas para identificar, analisar e gerenciar os investimentos em TI: a Gestão do Portfólio de TI (GPTI). De acordo, porém, com pesquisas recentes, continua sendo um conceito subdesenvolvido tanto na academia como no meio empresarial. Diferentes autores apontam que algumas organizações têm ciência da existência da GPTI, mas a minoria implementa essa técnica nas suas organizações. Assim, para mostrar que a GPTI pode auxiliar a gestão e justificativa dos investimentos em TI frente aos riscos e retornos, foi estabelecido o objetivo desta pesquisa: Analisar o uso da técnica GPTI no auxilio da justificativa e gestão dos investimentos em TI nas organizações. O método escolhido foram estudos de caso com cinco empresas brasileiras de diferentes setores econômicos; realizando entrevistas com os oito principais executivos de TI dessas organizações. Além disso, foi realizada, em um caso, uma análise quantitativa, utilizando a Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR) combinada com as dimensões da GPTI para avaliar os investimentos, levando em conta o seu o risco e o retorno; e para auxiliar os gestores nas decisões sobre investimentos em TI. Foram encontrados diferentes níveis de utilizações da GPTI nas empresas analisadas em relação a planejamento, controle e avaliação dos investimentos em TI. A GPTI estava sendo utilizada recentemente pelas empresas ou encontrava-se na fase de estruturação do portfólio de TI. Em relação à utilização da TOR, determinou-se que ela pode auxiliar os gestores de TI na análise dos investimentos nas diferentes dimensões da GPTI e possibilitar uma flexibilidade maior das decisões e um maior aproveitamento das oportunidades oferecidas pelo mercado ou devido às necessidades da empresa. A dissertação contribui para a área de TI, pois explorou e analisou um tema pouco estudado no Brasil, que é a GPTI. E também contribuiu para o conhecimento empresarial, fornecendo subsídios para os gestores realizarem benchmarking de portfólio de TI de empresas brasileiras e para oferecer uma maneira de auxiliar nas decisões sobre TI.
IT has lately been considered an important tool to gain competitive advantage, a fact that has triggered increasing investments in technology in the companies. However, the number and variety of investments require that managers use new tools and techniques to help justify and manage IT processes. A technique has been chosen as an alternative to identify, analyze, and manage investments in IT: Information Technology Portfolio Management (ITPM). Nevertheless, recent studies have shown that this concept has not been thoroughly developed neither in the academy nor in companies. Different authors point out that some organizations are aware of ITPM, but few use it in their business. Therefore, to show that ITPM can be of use in the justification and management of investments in IT, the following research aim as established: to analyze the use of ITPM as a tool to help justify and manage investments in IT in organizations. The methodology comprises five case studies of five Brazilian companies in different economic sectors; eight IT managers were interviewed in these companies. Besides, a quantitative analysis was carried out with one of the case studies by using the Real Options Theory (ROT) associated with ITPM in order to assess investment risk and return and to help managers take decisions regarding their investments in IT. Different ITPM levels were found in the companies under investigation concerning planning, control, and evaluation in investments in IT. Results show that ITPM has been used for a short time or is in the structuring phase of the IT portfolio. Regarding the use of ROT, I have concluded that it can help IT managers analyze investments in different ITPM dimensions and enable more flexibility in decision-making and better use of the market opportunities, according to the company's needs. This thesis brings some contributions to the IT area since it explores and analyzes a theme – ITPM – which has got little research in Brazil; besides, it contributes to managerial knowledge so that managers can benchmark IT portfolios in Brazilian companies, and help the decision-making process in IT, an area that has got increasing importance in the companies lately.

A típica produção de cana-de-açúcar por fornecedores autônomos no Estado de São Paulo dá-se em pequenas propriedades rurais. Nessa atividade, constatou-se prejuízo econômico entre as safras 2007/08 e 2011/12, fato este que leva ao objetivo do presente estudo: responder por que, então, tais produtores mantêm-se no fornecimento de cana-deaçúcar em detrimento de encerrarem seus projetos e direcionarem os recursos para outras atividades. Foram analisados dois projetos de investimento em cana-de-açúcar, tomando como base informações disponíveis das regiões de Piracicaba e Sertãozinho. Considerando-se o método do fluxo de caixa descontado, obtiveram-se estimativas que apontam para a atratividade econômica do plantio de cana em ambas as regiões, haja vista a resposta positiva dos Valores Presentes Líquidos calculados. Tais evidências foram corroboradas quando da utilização da Teoria das Opções Reais, proposta que incorpora no modelo de decisão a flexibilidade gerencial do investidor. Neste caso, mais expressivas foram as respostas obtidas em termos de atratividade financeira. Ressalta-se, ainda, para os principais parâmetros que impactam na viabilidade econômica de empreendimentos canavieiros, a saber, o preço e a qualidade da cana-de-açúcar e a produtividade agrícola. Adicionalmente, os resultados apontam para melhores condições financeiras quando a produção de cana é realizada em terras próprias - em detrimento de áreas arrendadas - além da necessidade de incentivos dados pelas usinas aos fornecedores da região de Sertãozinho. Medidas que visam ganhos de produtividade agrícola e a profissionalização da atividade são apontadas como fatores motivadores de ganhos financeiros, enquanto que em termos de políticas públicas cita-se a possibilidade de ajustes nos sistemas de precificação da gasolina C e na tributação dos derivados da cana-de-açúcar, ações que tendem a elevar a rentabilidade da atividade ora analisada.
The typical production of sugarcane by independent suppliers in the São Paulo State gives up on small farms. In this activity, it was found that between crops 2007/08 and 2011/12 there was economic loss, a fact that leads to the goal of the present study: answer why these producers still remain providing sugarcane. Apart from the traditional viability analysis, the study incorporated the Real Options Theory analysis, which includes managerial flexibility on the investor decision model. Two sugarcane investment projects based on available information of Piracicaba and Sertaozinho regions were analyzed. Considering the discounted cash flow method, we obtained estimates pointing to the economic attractiveness of sugarcane planting in both regions, as shown by the positive response of the Net Present Values calculated. This evidence was corroborated when using the Real Options Theory, given the most significant were the responses in terms of financial attractiveness. Additionally, the results point to better financial conditions when the production of sugarcane is held in its own land, beyond the need for mills incentives to independent suppliers of Sertaozinho. Price and quality of sugarcane and agricultural productivity presented the higher impact on the financial viability of projects. Finally, actions focus on agricultural productivity gains are seen as motivating for financial gain, while in terms of public policy we mention the possibility of adjustments in C gasoline pricing systems and in the taxation on derived products from sugarcane.

Reliable infrastructure assets impact significantly on quality of life and provide a stable foundation for economic growth and competitiveness. Decisions about the way assets are managed are of utmost importance in achieving this. Timely renewal of infrastructure assets supports reliability and maximum utilisation of infrastructure and enables business and community to grow and prosper. This research initially examined a framework for asset management decisions and then focused on asset renewal optimisation and renewal engineering optimisation in depth. This study had four primary objectives. The first was to develop a new Asset Management Decision Framework (AMDF) for identifying and classifying asset management decisions. The AMDF was developed by applying multi-criteria decision theory, classical management theory and life cycle management. The AMDF is an original and innovative contribution to asset management in that: · it is the first framework to provide guidance for developing asset management decision criteria based on fundamental business objectives; · it is the first framework to provide a decision context identification and analysis process for asset management decisions; and · it is the only comprehensive listing of asset management decision types developed from first principles. The second objective of this research was to develop a novel multi-attribute Asset Renewal Decision Model (ARDM) that takes account of financial, customer service, health and safety, environmental and socio-economic objectives. The unique feature of this ARDM is that it is the only model to optimise timing of asset renewal with respect to fundamental business objectives. The third objective of this research was to develop a novel Renewal Engineering Decision Model (REDM) that uses multiple criteria to determine the optimal timing for renewal engineering. The unique features of this model are that: · it is a novel extension to existing real options valuation models in that it uses overall utility rather than present value of cash flows to model engineering value; and · it is the only REDM that optimises timing of renewal engineering with respect to fundamental business objectives; The final objective was to develop and validate an Asset Renewal Engineering Philosophy (AREP) consisting of three principles of asset renewal engineering. The principles were validated using a novel application of real options theory. The AREP is the only renewal engineering philosophy in existence. The original contributions of this research are expected to enrich the body of knowledge in asset management through effectively addressing the need for an asset management decision framework, asset renewal and renewal engineering optimisation based on fundamental business objectives and a novel renewal engineering philosophy.

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The process of Brazil s compliance with the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) took a big step forward, definitively getting on the agenda of regulatory agencies, companies and auditing firms, when Federal Law 11.638 was signed in December 2007, altering the accounting chapter of Brazilian Corporate Law, 6.404/76. This study contributes to Brazil s process of compliance with the IFRS, specifically regarding the applicability of IFRS 2 Share-based Payment, or its Brazilian corollary CPC 10 Pagamento Baseado em Ações, and the impact on accounting and on the disclosure of a long-term compensation program for executives, characterized as phantom stock options. IFRS 2 was published in February 2002 and was required internationally from January 2005, as an outcome of the growing use of commercial transaction payments based on shares, and also the IOSCO´s report that pointed out the lack of an accounting standard dealing with this kind of transaction. The study found that IFRS 2 or CPC 10 can be appropriately applied to guide the accounting treatment given to a phantom stock option program, and was a more informative accounting practice than that which had been used in Brazil, before 2008. The study also found a wide-spread need of financial knowledge regarding the valuation of stock options, such as the Black-Scholes-Merton model, as well as statistical methods for appropriately account and disclose the fair value of share-based incentive plans. Furthermore, in order to understand more fully the economic event which is being accounted, it is highly important to understand its essence. In the case of long-term share-based incentives for executives, the essence of their existence can be found in agency theory
O processo de convergência do Brasil às Normas Internacionais de Contabilidade (IFRSs) deu um grande salto e entrou definitivamente na agenda dos órgãos reguladores, empresas e auditorias, com a sanção da lei federal 11.638 em dezembro de 2007, que alterou o capítulo contábil da Lei das Sociedades Anônimas, 6.404/76. Este estudo contribui para o processo de convergência brasileiro às IFRSs, especificamente quanto à aplicabilidade do IFRS 2 Share Based Payment, ou sua correlação brasileira CPC 10 Pagamento Baseado em Ações, e dos impactos contábeis e de divulgação decorrentes de um programa de compensação de longo prazo a executivos, com as características de phantom stock options, ou opções fantasmas. O IFRS 2 foi publicado em fevereiro de 2002 e requerido internacionalmente a partir de janeiro de 2005, como uma decorrência do crescente uso de pagamento das transações comerciais com base em ações e também do relatório da IOSCO, que identificou como falha a lacuna de norma contábil que tratasse deste tipo de transação. O estudo identificou que o IFRS 2 ou CPC 10 aplica-se adequadamente para orientar o tratamento contábil de um programa de phantom stock option e representou uma prática contábil mais informativa que aquela até então adotada no Brasil, antes do ano de 2008. O estudo também identificou a grande necessidade de conhecimento de finanças relacionado à avaliação de opções, tal como o modelo Black-Scholes-Merton, bem como de métodos estatísticos, para uma apropriada contabilização e divulgação do valor justo dos planos de incentivo baseados em ações. Além disso, para que se entenda com profundidade o evento econômico que se contabiliza, é de suma importância a compreensão de sua essência. No caso de incentivos de longo prazo para executivos, baseados em ações, a essência de sua existência pode ser encontrada na Teoria de Agência

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The aims of this work is to show the contributions that the interaction between real options theory and target costing may offer in the pricing process. The justification for this issue lies in the lack of studies on the subject, because there are many works on the target costing and the real options theory, however, in the literature no studies were found that explicitly describe the interaction between the real options theory and target costing. To get to the objective of the work, spoke out about the pricing from the perspective of cost, the investment analysis and the economic viewpoint, it was demonstrated throughout the work the various techniques and theories on pricing, supported on a deductive method, descriptive and exploratory. At the end of the work, using the assumptions of target costing as premises of managerial flexibility of real options theory, proved a great contribution to the pricing process because decision makers might have a far more complete variables that impact the price and make the right decision on market possibilities
O presente trabalho tem como objetivo mostrar as contribuições que a interação entre a teoria das opções e o target costing podem oferecer ao processo de precificação. A justificativa para este tema reside na escassez de trabalhos sobre o assunto, pois, existem muitos trabalhos sobre o target costing e sobre a teoria das opções reais, porém, na literatura não foram encontrados trabalhos que descrevam explicitamente a interação entre a teoria das opções reais e o target costing. Para chegar-se ao objetivo do trabalho, discorreu-se sobre a precificação pela ótica de custos, pela análise de investimentos e pela ótica econômica, ou seja, demonstrou-se ao longo do trabalho as diversas técnicas e teorias sobre precificação, amparado em um método dedutivo, do tipo descritivo e exploratório. Ao final do trabalho, utilizando os pressupostos do target costing como premissas de flexibilidade gerencial da teoria das opções reais, demonstrou-se uma grande contribuição ao processo de precificação pois, os tomadores de decisão puderam ter uma visão bem mais completa das variáveis que impactam no preço e tomar a decisão correta via as possibilidades de mercado

Mestrado em Finanças
Neste trabalho faz-se uma avaliação de uma oportunidade perdida de desenvolver terreno. Foi negado a uma empresa a possibilidade de esta desenvolver um projecto que consistia no desenvolvimento de imobiliário e na sua posterior venda. A avaliação é feita tendo por base a Teoria das Opções Reais e decidimos focar-nos no valor da opção de compra subjacente neste projecto. Usamos duas fórmulas fechadas para estimar o valor desta opção: o modelo Black-Scholes-Merton e a opção de troca de Margrabe. De seguida simulamos algumas das variáveis destas fórmulas fechadas através de uma análise de cenários e de uma simulação Monte Carlo, isto permitiu-nos construir intervalos de confiança dentro dos quais estará o valor justo da opção. Concluímos que ao ter em conta o valor desta opção, o valor do projecto aumenta significativamente, mesmo nas nossas estimativas mais conservadoras.
The present paper attempts to value the cost of a lost development opportunity in a vacant land. A company was denied the possibility of developing a project, which consisted in real estate development to be sold in the future. The evaluation follows Real Options Theory and we focus on the value of the call option embedded in this project. We use two close form formulas to estimate the option's value: the standard Black-Scholes-Merton Model and Margrabe's Exchange Option. We then simulate some of the variables contained in these formulas using a scenario analysis and a Monte Carlo Simulation, which allowed us to build confidence intervals in which the fair values of the options lie. We find that by taking into account the call option, the value of this project increases significantly, even in our most conservative estimations.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

碩士
國立臺北科技大學
商業自動化與管理研究所
93
This paper applies real option theory to replace the traditional evaluate investment method. Regard the technology research and develop investment as a real option, when enterprises acquire a new technology, is equal to get the chance to make the follow-up strategy investment. However, the theory of real option is not suitable for evaluation of the competition advantage made by information technology investment, such as the preempt market advantage, the brand lead advantage and the patent advantage. This paper combines the theory of real option and game theory, considers the uncertainty of the rival reacts in industry''s environment. This paper also transfers the investment benefit from theory of real option to the payoff in game theory, utilizes “Equilibrium Concept” in the game theory, ponders over the rival''s possible investment strategy, and gets the optimal investment strategy of enterprises. Therefore, the investment decision model, combining the game theory and theory of real option, is proposed in this paper which is based on terms of strategic information technology investment. Finally, there are two Hospital MIS investment cases: 1) the investment of dynamic environment with the uncertainty of medical market demand and 2) uncertainty of technology development in the future and uncertainty of the rival reacts, to demonstrate how to make the best information technology investment strategy and its efficiency.

碩士
東吳大學
國際經營與貿易學系
100
There is distinct discrepancy in operations between first or second mover of different industries based on variabilities of characteristics, resources, core competences and market types. As Technology industry has been important to Taiwan because of its increasingly raising proportion of exports since 1980s, it is meaningful for enterprises to find out whether “first-mover advantages” exist or not in the industry. In addition, policies or regulations made by government will have effect on corporations’ investment, such as wage level, interest rate, foreign exchange rate, taxes and trade policies. Therefore, besides first-mover advantages, policy uncertainties created by government is also be discussed. Besides 1981 to 1985, the regression on first-mover advantages shows that the latter the firms setup, the better the profitability. Additionally, policy uncertainties indicate that the most firms setup during 1996 to 2000 with the lowest policy uncertainties within the sample period and firms setup during the period display the highest profitability showed from the regression on first-mover advantages.

碩士
逢甲大學
財務金融學所
95
TFT-LCD industry is one of the most booming industries in the world, recently. All manufacturers invest lots of capital to expand their capacity and new production lines for their earning. The return in the future will be a good question to managers. So having an efficiency evaluation and analysis is necessary. This thesis take the G6 investment project of AU Optronic for example, and it is based on the binomial option valuation method and the Subgame Perfect Equilibrium of game theory. In the valuation, we consider two situations- the deferment of investment and the transfer of investment. Besides, we also analyze the cost of capital of AU Optronic by sensitivity analysis. In the result of this thesis, AU Optronic will be loss a lot, if they invest right now. But this investment project will be worth, if they consider the deferment of investment strategy and the transfer of investment strategy. As a result, the deferment of investment strategy is valuable.

碩士
國立成功大學
財務金融研究所
97
Abstract The traditional capital budgeting tools such as net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) techniques have been widely used in corporate investment decision making for decades. Although these tools are relatively easy, the flexibility of investment projects can not be incorporated in analysis. For the investments involving high uncertainty of future cash flows, traditional capital budgeting analysis may make these investments infeasible, further making firms losing good investment opportunities. Real option analysis can take into account the uncertainty and provide flexibility in investment assessments. In strategic investment decisions, not considering the reaction of competitors may result in great deviation between assessed project value and actual outcome. Game theory can be applied onto the corporate capital budgeting analysis to enhance the quality of decision making. Through a case in the textile industry, this study thoroughly discusses the applications of real option and game theory in capital budgeting analysis, expecting to provide feasible assessments for future reference.

Spending on investments in integrative information systems (IIS) has considerably risen during the last few years due to a high need for linking various information systems. The demand for integrating the systems stems from developments like mergers and acquisitions and is typically satisfied in practice using Enterprise Application Integration solutions, Enterprise Resource Planning systems, Portals, or Data Warehouses. For the valuation of such an investment previous literature recommends the use of a real options analysis (ROA) since traditional capital budgeting methods such as the Net Present Value underestimate its value. Contrary, the ROA is able to conveniently account for managerial flexibility, represented by the possibility to implement follow-on opportunities, generated by the IIS. However, in practice ROA suffers from a lack of appliance mainly because of its complexity. This thesis precisely closes this gap and develops a simplified process model for a ROA by exactly tailoring the broad real options concept to the requirements of an investment valuation of IIS. For that, it reviews option pricing models from the financial world as well as previous research in the area of ROA and creates the desired model by conducting a ROA for four case studies in detail. The study reveals new findings concerning the question of how a decision-maker can apply the real options method and at the same time, when he/she is able to abandon a detailed ROA or a ROA at all. (author's abstract)