Academic literature on the topic 'Real option theory (ROT)'
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Journal articles on the topic "Real option theory (ROT)"
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Rocha, Milena De Cássia, Márcio Augusto Gonçalves, and Yuri Lawryshyn. "Evolution of studies on Real Options Theory in health sector." Revista Gestão & Tecnologia 20, no. 4 (November 24, 2020): 227–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.20397/2177-6652/2020.v20i4.1990.
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Objective: The objective of this study was to identify the evolution of studies of real options theory in the health sector. For that, the present paper presents a study, which aims to analyze the studies published on the main scientific bases.Methodology/approach – A bibliometric study was developed. Articles published in: Plubmed, Wiley Online Library, Sage, Web of Science, Science Direct, Springer Link and Emerald Insight were analyzed. Data were analyzed using descriptive statisticsOriginality / Relevance: The originality and relevance is to present an analysis on the evolution of the studies of the theory of real options in the health sector already published.Main Results: The main conclusion is that the application of ROT in the health sector is not only in the evaluation of investment, but also has been observed its applicability in medical decision making. In addition, we note that the first study on real options theory in the health sector was conducted eleven years after the start of studies on real options theory. Moreover, the option to defer is the most applied in the health sector.Theoretical Contributions:This study contributes to scientific research in Applied Social Sciences by presenting an evaluation of the evolution of studies in the health sector.
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Vimpari, Jussi, and Seppo Junnila. "Valuing green building certificates as real options." Journal of European Real Estate Research 7, no. 2 (July 29, 2014): 181–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jerer-06-2013-0012.
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Purpose – The purpose of this study is first to evaluate whether real options analysis (ROA) is suitable for valuing green building certificates, and second to calculate the real option value of a green certificate in a typical office building setting. Green buildings are demonstrated as one of the most profitable climate mitigation actions. However, no consensus exists among industry professionals about how green buildings and specifically green building certificates should be valued. Design/methodology/approach – The research design of the study involves a theoretical part and an empirical part. In the theoretical part, option characteristics of green building certificates are identified and a contemporary real option valuation method is proposed for application. In the empirical part, the application is demonstrated in an embedded multiple case study design. Two different building cases (with and without green certificate) with eight independent cash flow valuations by eight industry professionals are used as data set for eight valuation case studies and analyses. Additionally, cross-case analysis is executed for strengthening the analysis. Findings – The paper finds that green certificates have several characteristics similar to real options and supports the idea of using ROA in valuing a green certificate. The paper also explains how option pricing theory and discounted cash flow (DCF) method deal with uncertainty and what shortcomings of DCF could be overcome by ROA. The results show that a mean real option value of 985,000 (or 8.8 per cent premium to the mean property value) was found for a Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design Platinum certificate in the Finnish property market. The main finding of the paper suggests that the contemporary real option valuation methods are appropriate to assess the monetary value and the uncertainty of a green building certificate. Originality/value – This is the first study to argue that option-pricing theory can be used for valuing green building certificates. The identification of the option characteristics of green building certificates and demonstration of the ROA in an empirical case makes questions whether the current mainstream investment analysis approaches are the most suitable methods for valuing green building certificates.
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Baldi, Francesco, and Lenos Trigeorgis. "Valuing human capital career development: a real options approach." Journal of Intellectual Capital 21, no. 5 (May 19, 2020): 781–807. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jic-06-2019-0134.
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PurposeThere has been a long controversy in the literature on assessing the value of human capital – a long-sought but elusive and challenging task. The ability to quantify flexible human capital (FHC) has been a shortcoming in extant literature. We make a meaningful contribution by showing how real options (RO) methodology can be used to quantify FHC and we provide complementary case study evidence from Fortune 500 “best companies to work for” that the value of employee career development is higher in more volatile sectors in line with real options theory (ROT).Design/methodology/approachThis article provides a prescriptive RO methodology for adopting a more flexible, staged SHRM organizational perspective suitable for uncertain environments, and explores its theoretical and empirical implications through the dual use of RO methodological modelling and multi-case study data involving ten Fortune 500 companies. The case study approach is aimed at creating managerially relevant knowledge. The relevance of our approach to managerial practice is shown through guidelines on how a company like Google might use the RO methodology to estimate the career development option value so as to inform its internal development program for employees to create and capture value.FindingsOur focus is on the staging flexibility in HR as exemplified by the internal career development process. This process can be viewed as a multi-stage (compound) option involving various types of HC uncertainty, HC options, and HR practices. We model staging HR deployment via the option to promote staff employees to middle-level management, itself embedding the option to rise to the top management. To empirically validate our valuation approach, we present case study research that enables quantifying the option value of a career development program and allows assessing how much a mismatch exists in a sample of ten public U.S. companies.Research limitations/implicationsThe overall staging quantification idea is important as it offers guidance as to how to value HR as a sequential investment process under uncertain demand or skill conditions. The analysis is limited to the extent that staged career development might interact with other types of human capital (e.g. switch and learning) options and HR practices (e.g. training). Human resources may also interact with other organizational intangibles, such as brand equity. Our analysis also does not account for psychological considerations from the employees' perspective, such organizational commitment facilitating trust to enable reciprocal commitments, which remains a fruitful subject for future extensions.Practical implicationsROT can provide useful guidance and tools for HR scholars and managers. By keeping tabs on HR-based flexibility value and focusing on the key input variables driving HR flexibility, HR managers can determine the flexibility value unleashed from staging the deployment of HC resources in the face of unanticipated demand and skills shifts.Originality/valueThis is the first paper that attempts to quantify the value of staged career development flexibility using the RO methodology. This article will be cited for its innovativeness in being the first to quantify the value of human capital's contribution to corporate value creation and provide objective evaluation in the context of organizational career-development programs. Besides providing useful insights to scholars, the article also demonstrates how the RO methodology can apply to actual companies and inform managerial practice offering guidelines of relevance to HR practitioners on how to quantify the value of staged HC development in an uncertain environment.
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Dos Santos, Luiz Otavio Schmall, Ednilson Bento Freire, Guilherme Pederneiras Raja Gabaglia, and Daniel Dargan Cordeiro. "Application of real option theory to quantify the impacts of high-resolution stratigraphy training." Rio Oil and Gas Expo and Conference 22, no. 2022 (September 26, 2022): 25–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.48072/2525-7579.rog.2022.025.
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Lamberts-Van Assche, Hanne, and Tine Compernolle. "Using Real Options Thinking to Value Investment Flexibility in Carbon Capture and Utilization Projects: A Review." Sustainability 14, no. 4 (February 12, 2022): 2098. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14042098.
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Carbon capture and utilization (CCU) is one of the key technologies that may help to reduce industrial emissions. However, the deployment of CCU is hampered by various barriers, including high levels of technical, policy and market uncertainty. The real options theory (ROT) provides a method to account for these uncertainties and introduce flexibility in the investment decision by allowing decisions to be changed in response to the evolution of uncertainties. ROT is already being applied frequently in the evaluation of renewable energy or carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, e.g., addressing the uncertainty in the price of CO2. However, ROT has only found a few applications in the CCU literature to date. Therefore, this paper investigates the specific types of uncertainty that arise with the utilization of CO2, identifies the types of real options present in CCU projects and discusses the applied valuation techniques. Research gaps are identified in the CCU literature and recommendations are made to fill these gaps. The investment decision sequence for CCU projects is shown, together with the uncertainties and flexibility options in the CCU projects. This review can support the real options-based evaluations of the investment decisions in CCU projects to allow for flexibility and uncertainty.
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Caldas, Antônio Vinícius Silva, and Antônio Francisco De Almeida da Silva Júnior. "Comparative evaluation of investment analysis methods: an application in renewable energy auctions between 2011 e 2015." Revista de Administração da UFSM 14, no. 3 (October 4, 2021): 693–715. http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/1983465955255.
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Purpose - This work aims to analyze the assertiveness of net present value (NPV) and real options theory (ROT), at the moment of decision making for investments in renewable energy projects, considering the 244 winning projects in the auctions of reserve energy that occurred between 2011 and 2015.Design/methodology/approach –This is a quantitative study that used real data from 150 wind power and 94 photovoltaic projects available on ANEEL´s website. For data analysis, the confusion matrix, the area under the ROC Curve and the Kappa Index were used.Findings – It was concluded that NPV is more effective for recommendations to invest in projects with chances to be successful, while ROT is more accurate in suggesting against investing in projects with propensity for failure. It was also found that the degree of agreement between the two techniques is substantial and determined by the level of volatility of real options.Research limitations/implications – The limitations of this study refer to the difficulties of identifying the reasons that motivated failures in the projects.Originality/value – Theoretically, this work contributes to identify the characteristics that effectively differentiate ROT from NPV at the time of decision making. Empirically, this work contributes to doing an ex-post analysis of the projects.
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Campher, Cedric Abraham, and PJ Vlok. "Building a scenario based active mapping investment tool within a physical asset management framework." South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences 17, no. 2 (March 6, 2014): 194–206. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v17i2.478.
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This study explores the implementation of an integrated capital budgeting visual mapping framework comprised of both Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Real Options Analysis (ROA) techniques. Physical asset investment decisions are based largely on rigid discounted cash flow tools which provide untimely and incomplete decisional criteria. While literature outlines the widespread use of traditional DCF techniques, it nevertheless reveals extensive limitations, including its static inflexibility and slow-to-evolve framework. ROA is a more recent valuation tool based on stock option theory. It brings into account added value found in the flexibility of managerial decision-making and uncertain conditions. This study implements a combined DCF and ROA capital budgeting tool within a Physical Asset Management (PAM) environment. The validity of the framework is realised through an industry-relevant case study presented by a South African mining company.
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Zandi, Faramak, Madjid Tavana, and Aidan O’Connor. "A STRATEGIC COOPERATIVE GAME-THEORETIC MODEL FOR MARKET SEGMENTATION WITH APPLICATION TO BANKING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 18, no. 3 (October 1, 2012): 389–423. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2012.688072.
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Market segmentation is essential to target efficaciously core-segment customers and to obtain a competitive advantage. Firms when confronted by the range of market segments, have difficulty in deciding the core-segment customers who are the most probable purchasers of their product and services. We propose a novel fuzzy group multi-criteria method for market entry and segment evaluation and selection. This proposed method provides a comprehensive and systematic framework that combines bi-level multi-objective optimization with real option analysis (ROA) and fuzzy cooperative n-person game theory. The contribution of the proposed segment evaluation and selection method is fivefold: (1) it addresses the gaps in the marketing literature on the efficacious and effective assessment of market segments; (2) it provides a comprehensive and systematic framework that combines bi-level multi-objective optimization with ROA and fuzzy cooperative n-person game theory; (3) it considers fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets to represent ambiguous, uncertain or imprecise information; (4) it does not insist on consensus but synthesizes a representative outcome based on qualitative judgments and quantitative data; and (5) it is applicable to national and international market segmentation. The practical application of this proposed framework illustrates the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms.
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Fontes MP, Koppe JC, and Silva Neto JA. "Analysis of the variables: Commodity price and discount rate on long-term open pit mine planning." Global Journal of Engineering and Technology Advances 6, no. 2 (February 28, 2021): 142–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.30574/gjeta.2021.6.2.0025.
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Long-term open pit mine planning is a complex process which deals with numerous uncertainties, whether they are economical (commodity price, operational costs, production schedule, discount rate, inflation, among others); geological (grade distribution, density, hardness, etc); or physical constraints (property limits, environmental issues, legislation, etc). In this context, this paper aims to evaluate the effects of the variation of two important variables: commodity price and discount rate, with regard to the economic criterion, represented by the Net Present Value (NPV) of the mining business. Starting from a baseline value of US$ 80/t, the commodity (phosphate rock was used as a case study) price was varied within a 50% range, above and below the baseline value, obtained from historic values from the last 5 years. The discount rate values adopted in the analyses were 6%, 8%, 10%, 12%, 14%, 16%, 18% and 20%. The results showed increases in the market price yielded higher NPV and life of mine values. On the other hand, it was noted that increases in the discount rate can significantly alter the NPV, materially reducing the value of the mining undertaking. It is also worth noting that, in contrast to more robust approaches such as Real Options Theory (ROT), traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methods, such as NPV, assume variables, such as commodity price, to be fixed, which could either lead to the undervaluation or overvaluation of a project.
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Mintah, Kwabena. "International Real Estate Review." International Real Estate Review 21, no. 4 (December 31, 2018): 473–520. http://dx.doi.org/10.53383/100270.
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Studies have demonstrated the potential of real options analysis (ROA) in property development decision-making. However, practitioners have yet to accept, adopt and integrate ROA in property development decision-making in Australia. This paper therefore investigates how Australian residential property developers manage uncertainties and risks, examines flexibility as a risk management tool, and evaluates the receptiveness and acceptance of ROA for decision making. Data are collected through face-to-face semi-structured interviews with twelve participants, and analysed by using thematic analysis. The results indicate that a discount rate is insufficient for managing uncertainties and risks; rather, contingency is used. Receptiveness and acceptance of the RO theory are mixed due to lack of unanimity among responses. Some participants are positive about flexibility, while others are dismissive. Beyond quantitative ROA models, the findings suggest that practitioners are receptive to ROA, but concerns remain over adoption. Flexibility cases executed by some participants in practice indicate that practitioners are subconsciously using ROA. Therefore, it is possible that acceptance and adoption could be achieved in the future. Evidence of the use of contingency as a risk management tool challenges the long-held notions of risk-return relationships in property development and investment. This is initial evidence of qualitative research on ROA in practice within Australian property developments.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Real option theory (ROT)"
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TALARICO, ANTONIO. "La collaborazione pubblico-privato nella realizzazione dei Programmi Complessi: dalla valutazione ex-ante alla verifica in itinere della redditività degli investimenti." Doctoral thesis, Politecnico di Torino, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2602571.
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I programmi complessi, nelle numerose forme previste dal quadro legislativo vigente, comportano svariate conseguenze economiche, che andrebbero opportunamente valutate secondo prospettive ex-ante, in itinere ed ex-post. Gli strumenti individuati dalla normativa hanno, sino ad oggi, privilegiato, attraverso lo strumento dello Studio di Fattibilità, il punto di vista ex-ante, utile soprattutto per valutare le risorse necessarie e individuare le fonti di finanziamento.
Il lavoro di tesi prende spunto proprio dalla necessità di predisporre nuovi strumenti di valutazione in itinere di programmi complessi, come quelli che, ad esempio, sono stati oggetto dei recenti interventi di riqualificazione urbana nelle grandi città italiane. Si vuole sperimentare la possibilità di intervenire sui parametri economico-finanziari, nel momento in cui, rispetto alle scelte delineate in fase di ideazione, si rendono necessari opportuni aggiustamenti relativi alle variabili in grado di influenzare gli obiettivi inizialmente individuati dal programma. Si tratta quindi del tentativo di incorporare l’informazione che giunge soltanto durante la fase di attuazione del progetto. A tale proposito, il Capitolo 2 considera, a titolo esemplificativo, un caso di valutazione ex-ante di un’area di trasformazione urbana a Torino, per metterne in evidenza le criticità dal punto di vista dello strumento di valutazione impiegato.
Quando si parla di operatori coinvolti nelle trasformazioni territoriali e di processo di sviluppo immobiliare, occorre infatti considerare, la forte interazione che normalmente avviene, attraverso la contrattazione e la negoziazione, tra soggetto pubblico e privato. La crescente scarsità di risorse costringe infatti le amministrazioni pubbliche, oltre a selezionare gli investimenti sul territorio, anche a ricercare partner privati, fondamentali per la realizzazione di programmi complessi altrimenti insostenibili.
Negli ultimi anni, la collaborazione tra pubblico e privato ha assunto numerose forme, appositamente regolamentate, che rappresentano probabilmente una casistica interessante da indagare. Il Capitolo 1 prende infatti in considerazione la storia di tale rapporto, che si evince dagli strumenti urbanistici utilizzati nell’attuazione delle politiche di governo del territorio, dagli anni ’50 sino ad oggi. Vengono chiarite le molteplici tipologie di programmi introdotti su base comunitaria, nazionale e regionale, nonché il rapporto che questi possono instaurare con la strumentazione urbanistica ordinaria, che varia, di volta in volta, secondo la tipologia di ogni programma. Allo scopo di sviluppare tale ragionamento su base economico-estimativa, la tesi affronta criticamente la possibilità di adattare nuovi strumenti di valutazione in itinere ad un contesto di collaborazione fra pubblico e privato, ove esiste un problema di condivisione e ripartizione dei rischi ma, allo stesso tempo, di redistribuzione della redditività in funzione dei bisogni della collettività.
A tale scopo, il Capitolo 3 approfondisce, anche dal punto di vista epistemologico, la questione dell’approccio alla valutazione in una nuova prospettiva. Esso mette a confronto le matrici teoriche del Project Management (PM) e della Teoria delle Opzioni Reali (Real Option Theory – ROT). Entrambi gli approcci si confrontano in effetti con la variabile temporale, fornendo tuttavia soluzioni diverse alla gestione della componente incerta legata alla realizzazione di un progetto. Nel campo degli investimenti immobiliari è infatti necessaria una tecnica che vada oltre il concetto di management del progetto, in grado di risolvere l’incertezza e il rischio connessi alle scelte legate espressamente alle destinazioni d’uso. Occorre ricordare che decisioni simultanee vs. sequenziali d’investimento caratterizzano spesso i mercati immobiliari. Un programma che prevede al suo interno opzioni che garantiscono un adeguato livello di flessibilità, può rappresentare senza dubbio un vantaggio per entrambi gli operatori interessati alla sua attuazione.
Il Capitolo 3 evidenzia, in sintesi, come la ROT applicata al settore immobiliare offra la possibilità di definire, in fase di contrattazione tra pubblico e privato, un set di opzioni da poter esercitare durante le successive fasi di realizzazione. In particolare, tale Capitolo serve da introduzione all’analisi di un secondo caso di studio che porterà alle conclusioni del presente lavoro.
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PETRONI, DEBORA PIRES DE SOUZA. "REAL ESTATE ANALYSIS: A REAL OPTION AND GAME THEORY APPROACH." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2010. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=32834@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
No ramo imobiliário, a tomada de decisão deve ser rápida e precisa. São muitas as incertezas que podem afetar um projeto. Por isso, o Estudo de Viabilidade é fator determinante de sucesso ou fracasso de uma incorporação. Hoje o método de análise largamente utilizado é o do Fluxo de Caixa Descontado (FDC), onde o valor do projeto e seus parâmetros de resultado baseiam-se no Valor Presente Líquido (VPL) do fluxo. Porém, este método não considera as diferentes decisões gerenciais que podem ser tomadas durante a vida útil do empreendimento em função de novas informações adquiridas ao longo do tempo. A decisão gerencial pode atuar mudando o rumo do empreendimento de maneira a maximizar os resultados a serem obtidos e mensurar seu real valor. Este trabalho se propõe a, de forma simples, introduzir a ferramenta de análise pela Teoria de Opções Reais (TOR), abordada na literatura, mas ainda negligenciada pelo mercado imobiliário. Esta teoria utilizada isoladamente não é capaz de retratar o dia-a-dia do incorporador. No mercado, a TOR torna-se falha utilizada sem a abordagem da Teoria dos Jogos, por não considerar os efeitos nocivos da concorrência nos objetivos da empresa. Sendo assim, o objetivo foi não só auxiliar na melhor avaliação de projetos pela TOR, considerando incertezas das mudanças econômicas mundiais e flexibilidade de tomada de decisão na maximização do resultado, como também analisar pela Teoria dos Jogos, a influência dos concorrentes nos objetivos inerentes ao projeto.
In Real Estate, the decision must be fast and accurate. There are many uncertainties that may affect projects. Therefore, the economic feasibility study is a critical factor of success or failure of an estate project. Currently the widely used analytical method is the discounted cash flow, in which the project s outcome and value are based on Net Present Value of the cash flow. However, this method does not consider the various management decisions that may be taken during the project life. The management decision may influence changing the course of estate development to maximize the financial results and measure their real value. This work aims to, in a simple way, introduce the analytical tool for Real Options Theory (ROT), discussed in the literature, but still neglected by the real estate market. This theory used in isolation isn t able to portray the developers daily. In the real estate market, the ROT becomes incorrect used without the Game Theory concepts, disregarding the competition effect s on the company s goals. Therefore, this work goes beyond a better project assessment through ROT, considering economic uncertainties and flexibility on decision making, but also considering the perspective of game theory, adding the influence of competitors actions on projects goals.
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VIDAL, ALEXANDRE PANZA. "MINING PROJECT VALUATION APPLYING THE REAL OPTION THEORY." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2008. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=12985@1.
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A demanda por commodities mineral e energético no mundo vem
sofrendo
um forte aumento nos últimos anos causado principalmente
pelo crescimento da
economia chinesa. No setor de minério de ferro movimentos
de aquisições e
consolidações são cada vez mais freqüentes pois grandes
grupos siderúrgicos
buscam, por meio de aquisições, garantir o fornecimento de
seu principal insumo
e se proteger contra a forte variação do preço no mercado
e, por outro lado,
empresas de mineração, ao se consolidarem, se protegem
contra essas
ameaças. A avaliação de novos projetos de mineração é
fundamental para
identificar o valor da empresa ao considerarmos que uma
empresa de mineração
é um portfólio de projetos. Dada as características de
alguns projetos de
mineração, o uso da Teoria de Opções Reais permite uma
avaliação mais
eficiente do valor destes projetos em função das
flexibilidades gerenciais e
incertezas de mercado. Esta dissertação procura rever e
aplicar os conceitos de
opções reais utilizando a probabilidade neutra ao risco e
processo estocástico
com drifts de crescimento da variável de incerteza através
de um projeto de
mineração hipotético com a opção de expandir sua capacidade
em um prazo de
5 anos.The world demand for mineral and energetic commodities is rising strongly in the last years due mainly to the growth of the Chinese economy. In the iron ore industry movements of merger and acquisition are more frequent therefore steel producers groups are looking to, by means of acquisition, guarantee their iron ore supply and to protect against the huge volatility of price in the market. On the other hand mining companies are protecting their business against these threats by merger operations. In this context, the valuation of new mining projects is essential to identify the enterprise value, considering that a mining company is a portfolio of projects. Given the characteristics of some mining projects, the use of the Real Option Theory allows a more efficiently valuation be done in presence of flexibilities and market uncertainties. This thesis intent to apply the concepts of real option, considering the risk neutral probability and stochastic process with growth drift of the variable of uncertainty, thru a hypothetic mining project, which holds a capacity expansion option that can be exercised in the five year time.
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PANTOJA, CAROLINE DA SILVA. "REAL OPTION THEORY: AN APPROACH TO WIND POWER." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2013. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=22854@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROO Setor Elétrico Brasileiro (SEB) vem passando por diversas mudanças. A reforma iniciada em 1993 implicou na alteração da característica do setor de ser até então majoritariamente estatal. As alterações no SEB nos anos de 2003 e 2004 implementaram os chamados Ambientes de Contratação Regulado e Livre, respectivamente ACR e ACL. Recentemente, mais mudanças estruturais marcaram o SEB com a nova Lei de número 12.783/13, que trata da renovação das concessões do setor. Neste contexto, destacam-se os empreendimentos eólicos e seu aumento de participação na matriz elétrica brasileira. A matriz elétrica brasileira permanece majoritariamente hídrica, contudo o segmento eólico tem se destacado nos leilões de energia, apresentando com frequencia preços mais competitivos que projetos de Pequenas Centrais Hidrelétricas (PCHs) e térmicas movidas à biomassa. Desta forma, dada a importância crescente da fonte eólica de energia, o presente trabalho propõe a aplicação de um modelo de avaliação de uma planta eólica em condições de incerteza, com a utilização da Teoria das Opções Reais. A flexibilidade abordada no trabalho em tela foi incorporada na escolha do mecanismo de venda da energia gerada. Neste sentido, considerou-se que o montante de energia não negociado no ACR (através de Leilões regulados) poderá ter a opção de ser negociado em contratos bilaterais no ACL ou liquidado no mercado de curto prazo ao Preço de Liquidação de Diferenças (PLD). Os resultados indicaram um aumento no valor do projeto com a inclusão desta flexibilidade.
The Brazilian Electric Power Industry (SEB) has been going through many changes. The reform begun in 1993 resulted in a modification on characteristics of this sector that was mainly controlled by the government until that time. The changes in SEB occurred in 2003 and 2004 resulted in the creation of the Regulated Contracting Environment (ACR) and the Free Contracting Environment (ACL). Recently, new modifications happened in this sector with the law number 12.783/13, which regulates the Renovation of Concessions in the sector. In this context, it can be highlighted the wind power projects and their increasing participation in Brazilian electricity generation matrix. The Brazilian electricity generation matrix is still concentrated in hydroelectrical generation. However, wind power plants have been standing out in the last auctions, with more competitive prices than Small Hydro Power (PCH) and biomass projects. Therefore, considering the increasing importance of wind power source, this work proposes the application of an investment model under uncertainty for evaluating a wind power plant using the Real Option Theory. The flexibility used in this work refers to the choice of the mechanism for selling the generated energy. In this sense, it was assumed that the amount of generated energy which wouldn’t be contracted in the ACR could have the possibility of being negotiated in contracts in the ACL or it would be sold in the short-term market through the Differences Settlement Price (PLD). Results indicate an increase in the project value with the inclusion of this flexibility.
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GIL, RODRIGO. "CARAJÁS EXPANSION PROJECT VALUATION USING REAL OPTION THEORY." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2014. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=24005@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROSegundo a Associação de Comércio Exterior do Brasil, o minério de ferro representou 12,8 porcento do total exportado pelo Brasil em 2012, se mantendo como primeiro produto, em valor, na pauta de exportação brasileira. Nesse contexto, o complexo Carajás, localizado no sudeste do estado do Pará em operação desde 1985, destaca-se por ser a maior reserva do país e por ter o minério com maior teor de ferro do mundo. Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar o projeto de expansão de Carajás, conhecido como projeto S11D,através da teoria de opções reais, buscando considerar o valor da flexibilidade gerencial existente no projeto e potenciais incertezas de mercado de forma a obter uma avaliação mais eficaz de um ativo tão representativo para o país. Os resultados indicam que a opção de expansão aumenta do valor do projeto de 77 bilhões de dólares para 99 bilhões de dólares, indicando o valor da opção em 22 bilhões de dólares.
According to the Brazilian External Association of Commerce, iron ore represented 12,8 percent of total export revenue in 2012, being the first product, at value, on the Brazilian export market share. In this context, Carajás Complex, located at south east of Pará State in operation since 1985, express itself from being the biggest reserve in the country and for having the highest iron ore content of the world. The target of this work is to evaluate the Carajás expansion project, known as S11D project, through Real Option Theory, considering the value of management flexibility existing in this project and potential market uncertainties in which obtain a valuation more efficient from an asset so representative to the country. The results indicate that the expansion option raises the project value from 77 billion dollars to 99 billion dollars, resulting the option value of 22 billion dollars.
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LASKIER, RAFAEL CAMPOS. "REAL OPTION THEORY: AN INVESTMENT VALUATION APPROACH FOR VENTURE CAPITAL INDUSTRY." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2007. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=11346@1.
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A metodologia tradicional do fluxo de caixa descontado,
amplamente
adotado pelas empresas para avaliar investimentos e
tomar
decisões, possui
diversas limitações quando a análise está sujeita a
incertezas e existem
flexibilidades gerenciais. A teoria de opções reais
surge
como uma metodologia
mais adequada para este tipo de cenário, uma vez que
permite a avaliação do
investimento em função das flexibilidades incluídas no
projeto que podem ser
modeladas de maneira semelhante ao cálculo do valor de
uma
opção financeira do
mercado de capitais. Este trabalho analisa um
investimento
para um projeto de
uma empresa que capta recursos através da formação de um
fundo de Venture
Capital. A utilização do método de opções reais para
avaliação de projetos
financiados através deste tipo de captação é
recomendada,
uma vez que os
mesmos encontram-se em estágio de desenvolvimento
inicial,
submetidos a um
ambiente de forte incerteza e com a existência de
flexibilidades gerenciais que
afetam a tomada de decisão. A indústria de Venture
Capital
é tipicamente
representada por empresas de elevado crescimento nos
primeiros anos de
investimento e forte volatilidade dos retornos esperados
(incerteza). O projeto
apresentou VPL negativo quando a abordagem tradicional é
utilizada e, ao aplicar
a metodologia de opções reais, foi possível perceber que
este resultado subestima
o valor do projeto e leva a uma tomada de decisão não
ótima. A partir deste
trabalho, conclui-se que, em cenários de grande
incerteza
e existência de
flexibilidades, como é o caso de investimentos de
Venture
Capital, o método de
valoração mais adequado é a metodologia de opções reais.The traditional discounted cash flow method, which is commonly used by companies to analyze capital budgeting investments, has important limitations when uncertainty and managerial flexibility are present. For these types of project, option pricing methods are more appropriate, since they allow the value of these managerial flexibilities to be adequately captured and valued. In this work we analyze the investment in a project through a venture capital fund, and show that the use of the real option method for the valutation of this type of projects and financing scheme is recommended, given these projects are in the initial stages of development, have a high degree of uncertainty and allow significant managerial flexibility. The Venture Capital industry is typically represented by firms with high growth rates in their initial years and high volatility of the expected returns. The results show that the project has a negative NPV under the traditional discounted cash flow method, but with real option valuation the project value was significantly higher, which shows that non optimal decisions may occur if project flexibility is not valued. We conclude that when high levels of uncertainty and flexibility exist, such as is the case of investments in Venture Capital projects, the real options method provides a more adequate value for the project.
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FILIPPO, THAIS HERNANDEZ. "STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS PLANNING AND EXECUTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY: REAL OPTION THEORY CONTRIBUTIONS." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2011. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=19254@1.
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COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIORPROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
Este trabalho se propõe a orientar como utilizar de forma conjunta e complementar os conceitos de Estratégia Empresarial e Finanças, mais especificamente da Teoria de Opções Reais, uma moderna teoria de análise de investimentos sob incerteza. Nas empresas vem coexistindo dois sistemas para a alocação de recursos: o planejamento estratégico e a orçamentação de capital, em geral, o primeiro define as iniciativas estratégicas e o segundo faz a verificação de viabilidade econômico-financeira destas iniciativas. Entretanto, muitas vezes a intuição vai contra as análises financeiras tradicionais. Além disso, a complexidade da tomada de decisão estratégica em um ambiente de incerteza vem crescendo em função do acelerado dinamismo do mercado e da infinidade de oportunidades que aparecem em um mundo altamente globalizado e conectado. Portanto, a união dos conceitos atualmente dispersos nestes dois sistemas é de fundamental importância para a deliberação e execução de estratégias consistentes e lucrativas. A Teoria de Opções Reais, cujas características se aproximam mais da realidade estratégica por considerar as flexibilidades gerenciais e não ter a abordagem passiva das ferramentas tradicionais, aparece, então, como uma resposta a esta necessidade de aproximação. Neste contexto, esta dissertação busca analisar a contribuição desta teoria à Estratégia Empresarial e construir um modelo que aproxime estes dois campos de estudo e direcione a prática de planejamento e execução de investimentos estratégicos.
This work intends to give guidance on how to use jointly and complementarily the concepts of Corporate Strategy and Finance, specifically the Theory of Real Options, a modern theory of investment analysis under uncertainty. In corporate practice are co-existing two systems for resource allocation, strategic planning and capital budgeting. Usually the first defines the strategic initiatives and the second checks the economic viability of these initiatives. However, intuition often goes against the traditional financial analysis. Moreover, the complexity of strategic decision making in an uncertain environment is growing rapidly as a function of market dynamics and the myriad of opportunities that appear in a highly globalized and connected world. Therefore, the union of these two concepts currently dispersed in these systems is of fundamental importance for the deliberation and execution of consistent and profitable strategies. Real Options Theory, whose characteristics are closer to reality by considering the strategic and managerial flexibility and not having the passive approach of traditional tools, then appears as a response to this need for approximation. In this context, this dissertation seeks to analyze the contribution of this theory to business strategy and build a model that combines these two fields of study and directs the practice of planning and execution of strategic investments.
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Ipsmiller, Edith, Keith D. Brouthers, and Desislava Dikova. "25 Years of Real Option Empirical Research in Management." Wiley, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/emre.12324.
Full textAbstract:
For several decades, management scholars have extolled the virtues of using real option logic when making
decisions under uncertainty. Real option logic suggests that in such situations, firms might be better off deferring
or staging investments, reducing potential financial losses, while at the same time securing an option to grow (or
abandon) the investment when uncertainty abates. Our analysis of the empirical research published in
leading management journals over the past 25 years suggests that while some progress has been made, much
more work needs to be done. We still do not have the answers to critical questions such as: Which
entrepreneurial/managerial traits impact the identification or exploitation of real options? Do multiple types of
uncertainties interact with each other and influence real option decisions? Addressing these and other issues
identified in our study can help improve our understanding of the usefulness of real option logic in management.
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Wang, Wen-Kai. "Application of stochastic differential games and real option theory in environmental economics /." St Andrews, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/893.
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Wang, Wen-Kai. "Application of stochastic differential games and real option theory in environmental economics." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/893.
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This thesis presents several problems based on papers written jointly by the author and Dr. Christian-Oliver Ewald. Firstly, the author extends the model presented by Fershtman and Nitzan (1991), which studies a deterministic differential public good game. Two types of volatility are considered. In the first case the volatility of the diffusion term is dependent on the current level of public good, while in the second case the volatility is dependent on the current rate of public good provision by the agents. The result in the latter case is qualitatively different from the first one. These results are discussed in detail, along with numerical examples. Secondly, two existing lines of research in game theoretic studies of fisheries are combined and extended. The first line of research is the inclusion of the aspect of predation and the consideration of multi-species fisheries within classical game theoretic fishery models. The second line of research includes continuous time and uncertainty. This thesis considers a two species fishery game and compares the results of this with several cases. Thirdly, a model of a fishery is developed in which the dynamic of the unharvested fish population is given by the stochastic logistic growth equation and it is assumed that the fishery harvests the fish population following a constant effort strategy. Explicit formulas for optimal fishing effort are derived in problems considered and the effects of uncertainty, risk aversion and mean reversion speed on fishing efforts are investigated. Fourthly, a Dixit and Pindyck type irreversible investment problem in continuous time is solved, using the assumption that the project value follows a Cox-Ingersoll- Ross process. This solution differs from the two classical cases of geometric Brownian motion and geometric mean reversion and these differences are examined. The aim is to find the optimal stopping time, which can be applied to the problem of extracting resources.
Books on the topic "Real option theory (ROT)"
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Wong, Muh Geot, Bruce A. Cooper, and Carol A. Pollock. Preparation for renal replacement therapy. Edited by David J. Goldsmith. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199592548.003.0143_update_001.
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Although the primary aim of management in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is to prevent progression to stage 5 CKD, for many patients renal replacement therapy (RRT) is inevitable. Planning for the initiation of dialysis is aimed at ensuring that it takes place in a supported environment in which adverse events will be minimized, that the modality chosen is appropriate for the individual circumstances, and the patient has full knowledge of what RRT entails. Beginning dialysis inevitably involves medical, psychological, family, and social issues, and preparation for RRT is optimally managed by a team with appropriate expertise in these areas. Multidisciplinary education programmes that inform patients and their families about their disease and the treatment options are likely to result in patients starting dialysis in a planned and elective manner.
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Haynes, Richard J., and James A. Gilbert. Chronic kidney disease and dialysis. Edited by Rutger Ploeg. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199659579.003.0128.
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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common disorder as currently defined. Patients with CKD face two major hazards: cardiovascular disease and—in a minority—progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Advanced CKD also causes numerous metabolic and other complications. The management of CKD involves excluding acute kidney injury, diagnosing the cause of CKD, slowing progression, and detecting and treating complications. If patients do reach ESRD, then renal replacement therapy (RRT) options must be considered. These include haemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, or transplantation. Haemodialysis requires creation of an arteriovenous fistula or insertion of a prosthetic graft while peritoneal dialysis necessitates the insertion of a catheter into the abdominal cavity. All forms of dialysis access are associated with complications both in the short and long term. However, they remain vital and central to the life and the well-being of the end-stage renal patient on dialysis.
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Goodall, Alex. The Big Truth. University of Illinois Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.5406/illinois/9780252038037.003.0011.
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This chapter explores how many of the radical and anti-interventionist critics of the New Deal had been silenced by a wave of loyalty campaigns that marked the culmination of more than a decade's worth of antifascist attacks. To the Left, this seemed like a victory. But antifascism had helped to reinvigorate the politics of countersubversion as a whole, and as the Left and center-Left lobbied for campaigns to root out supposedly disloyal right-wing enemies, much of the traditional resistance to countersubversive crusading disappeared. With members of the conservative coalition co-opting the language of antifascism to justify their hostility to communism, the war against Nazi Germany led to a far more tightly restricted realm of political debate and more universal acceptance among the American people that domestic extremists needed to be investigated, monitored, and repressed.
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Golan, Amos. Foundations of Info-Metrics. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199349524.001.0001.
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This book provides a framework for info-metrics—the science of modeling, inference, and reasoning under conditions of noisy and insufficient information. Info-metrics is an inherently interdisciplinary framework that emerged from the intersection of information theory, statistical inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. It allows us to process the available information with minimal reliance on assumptions that cannot be validated. This book focuses on unifying all information processing and model building within a single constrained optimization framework. It provides a complete framework for modeling and inference, rather than a problem-specific model. The framework evolves from the simple premise that our available information is often insufficient to provide a unique answer for decisions we wish to make. Each decision, or solution, is derived from the available input information along with a choice of inferential procedure. The book contains many multidisciplinary applications that demonstrate the simplicity and generality of the framework in real-world settings: These include initial diagnosis at an emergency room, optimal dose decisions, election forecasting, network and information aggregation, weather pattern analyses, portfolio allocation, inference of strategic behavior, incorporation of prior information, option pricing, and modeling an interacting social system. This book presents simple derivations of the key results that are necessary to understand and apply the fundamental concepts to a variety of problems. Derivations are often supported by graphical illustrations. The book is designed to be accessible for graduate students, researchers, and practitioners across the disciplines, requiring only basic quantitative skills and a little persistence.
Book chapters on the topic "Real option theory (ROT)"
1
Leishman, Chris. "Option Pricing Theory and Real Estate Research." In Real Estate Market Research and Analysis, 175–92. London: Macmillan Education UK, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-11281-1_10.
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Rueger, W. "Investing in PACS using real option theory." In Digital (R)Evolution in Radiology, 307–14. Vienna: Springer Vienna, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-3707-9_34.
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Perigo, D., and M. R. Ayre. "Investment Appraisal of Next Generation Launch Vehicles using Real Option Theory." In The Space Transportation Market: Evolution or Revolution?, 297–310. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0894-5_39.
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Lin, Zefu, and Jianyue Ji. "The Portfolio Selection Model of Oil/Gas Projects Based on Real Option Theory." In Computational Science – ICCS 2007, 945–52. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72588-6_151.
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Rębiasz, Bogdan, Bartłomiej Gaweł, and Iwona Skalna. "Financial Valuation of Production Diversification in the Steel Industry Using Real Option Theory." In Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 323–32. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99993-7_29.
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Chen, Jie, and Zeming Yuan. "The Study on Information Technology Patent Value Evaluation Index Based on Real Option Theory." In Advances in Intelligent and Soft Computing, 309–14. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-29390-0_50.
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Egli, Dennis B. "Crop management: principles and practices." In Applied crop physiology: understanding the fundamentals of grain crop management, 89–123. Wallingford: CABI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789245950.0004.
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Abstract This chapter discusses planting-seed quality, variety selection, plant population, planting date and row spacing. The goal of crop management is to create the perfect environment for the growth of the crop, where the perfect environment is characterized by the absence of stress or other factors that reduce crop growth and yield. This goal may be impossible or uneconomical to achieve, but that does not detract from its usefulness as a goal. The management practices discussed in this chapter are fundamental components of grain production systems that contribute to reaching the goal of the perfect environment. There are many management options available to an individual producer; selecting the best combination is not always easy and it may be constrained by factors outside the realm of the physiological processes controlling crop yield.
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Sutterlütti, Simon, and Stefan Meretz. "Commonism." In Make Capitalism History, 141–89. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-14645-9_6.
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AbstractCommonism is an alternative to market economy and real socialism because it goes beyond their common basis of wage labour, money and private or state property. Products are not produced in the form of commodities that are sold for money, but as commons for the direct satisfaction of needs. The chapter discusses common questions such as “Who cares about waste disposal?” and focuses on the question of coordination and mediation through commoning. Stigmergy, a signal-based coordination mechanism that communicates needs, can be used to create ex-ante planning of re/production. Conflicts are an important part of a free society and are not resolved by a central institution as envisioned by the followers of council theory, but in many places in a polycentric coordination mechanism. This polycentric coordination allows for planning and aggregation as long as the needs of the (care-) workers involved and their (commons-) enterprises are included. It builds on meta-structures providing information such as CO2 emissions or expected shortages or helps negotiate conflicts. It creates a society that can overcome ethics as the basis of solidarity and create a logic of inclusion that makes the inclusion of others the best selfish option.
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Tadeu, Hugo Ferreira Braga, Jersone Tasso Moreira Silva, and George Leal Jamil. "Real Options Theory." In Handbook of Research on Emerging Technologies for Effective Project Management, 1–19. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-9993-7.ch001.
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The objective of this chapter is to present the real options theory (ROT) as an alternative methodology applicable to investment analyses in research and development projects (R&D). The authors intend to simulate the evaluation of an R&D project as a real option, compare real options theory outcomes to a conventional R&D project evaluation technique, and review real options theory as a trend in innovation project evaluation. The outcomes were compared to those obtained via the traditional net present value (NPV) method and a brief practical discussion regarding project management decision making is held. Finally, although ROT is still in a developmental and consolidation stage, the authors suggests that it can be used as a promising tool in the decision-making process concerning R&D projects. ROT is presented as a research field that would integrate a set of emerging management technologies, becoming a theoretical base for new tools and methods to support project management (PM) decision making.
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Fehr, Hans, and Fabian Kindermann. "Topics in finance and risk management." In Introduction to Computational Economics Using Fortran. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198804390.003.0008.
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This chapter introduces basic concepts of modern finance theory and demonstrates how to apply them in complex real-world problems. Financial deals and investment decisions are typically determined under uncertainty.Therefore, although this chapter is self-contained, we have to expect some theoretical background in individual decisionmaking and optimal investment under uncertainty. We organize our discussion into four central sections. The starting point is a portfolio choice problem, where an investor has to choose between different assets with specific risk and return characteristics. We then move on to some option pricing applications. We first derive analytical formulas and then evaluate numerical procedures for pricing European and American options as well as more exotic option products. The third section elaborates on credit risk measurement and management using a corporate bond portfolio as example. In the last section we discuss mortality risk and the optimal portfolio structure of a life insurance company. This section provides different numerical approaches to find an optimal portfolio structure with many risky assets. It begins with simple measures of risk and return of a single asset and then develops decision rules to choose optimal portfolios that maximize expected utility of wealth in worlds without and with riskless borrowing and lending opportunities. The purpose of this section is to optimize a portfolio of equity shares and a risk-free investment opportunity. The investor faces the most basic two-period investment choice problem: He buys assets in the first period and these assets pay off in the next period. The problem of the investor is to choose from i = 1, . . . ,N risky assets which may be shares, bonds, real estate, etc. The gross return of each asset i is denoted by rit = qit/qit−1 − 1, where qit−1 is the first-period market price and qit − qit−1 the second-period payoff.
Conference papers on the topic "Real option theory (ROT)"
1
Mosoiu, Ovidiu, Catalin Cioaca, and Ion Balaceanu. "USING THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL IN INFORMATION SECURITY INVESTMENTS." In eLSE 2018. Carol I National Defence University Publishing House, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.12753/2066-026x-18-220.
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Interest in real option theory has intensified over the last decade due to the high uncertainty faced by some private and public organizations when deciding to make a strategic investment (competitive environment) or when faced with an external requirement of the organizational environment (ensuring security standards). Traditional methods of investment analysis define the existence of investment opportunity by net present value (NPV), ignoring the possibility that an investment will start from a certain moment in the future. In this way, it is not possible to capture the phenomenon in dynamics, which leads to limiting the possibility of solving the existing uncertainty over the time regarding the optimal use of resources. The need to optimize managerial strategies and give some flexibility to decision-makers in relation to the changes in the organization's external environment has triggered the real options analysis (ROA). By using ROA, a win-win situation is created in which the available policy options mitigate uncertainty fluctuations of updated net worth (based on new information available) and, at the same time, by applying the best strategy, maximize earnings. Information security systems are designed on a layered architecture and the decision to improve performance on each layer is the responsibility of strategic management. Being a modular system, it is recommended to build the architecture by stages, depending on the value of the assets. Also, the relatively long duration and costs of implementation, limited resources, irreversible character, and project risks determine the value and evaluation of the investment, involving its representation as a combined option associated with a succession of decisions. The proposed model is inspired from the theory of financial and real options, but also from the fuzzy logic. This approach seeks to anchor specific mechanisms for the study of asymmetric risk events in the security market (perfect market assumptions are of course limiting but provide a quick overview, which is essential for the proposed application). Using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the return on investments in the security of IT & C systems, by reference to the investment risk as the estimated value, is defined. Investors can take risks that can be broken down into two components: systematic risks and non-systemic risks. Systematic risk refers to the variability of income caused by external factors (macroeconomic conditions), being a measure of the relative market volatility of relative incomes. Unsystematic risk refers to income variability caused by unpredictable factors (mismanagement decisions, abrupt technologies overtaken). The depreciation of security investments is inherent and leads to the dilemma of small and frequent investments or major and rare investments. On this issue, the proposed model can provide solutions to decision-makers. Uncertainty, irreversibility, growth potential and competition are factors that influence the behavior and investment decision. We consider that by using the capital asset pricing model in the security investments associated with eLerning training systems, we can increase the precision of optimal investment in terms of risk and opportunity balancing.
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Qiu, Hong. "Research on carbon option pricing based on the real option theory." In Proceedings of the International Conference on Civil, Architecture and Environmental Engineering (ICCAE2016). CRC Press/Balkema P.O. Box 11320, 2301 EH Leiden, The Netherlands: CRC Press/Balkema, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781315116242-2.
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Hu, Minjie, Yun Pu, and Zhengbiao Qing. "Logistics Enterprise Evaluation Base On Real Option Theory." In Eighth International Conference of Chinese Logistics and Transportation Professionals (ICCLTP). Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40996(330)95.
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Agliardi, Rossella. "On optimal stopping problems arising in real option theory." In EIGHTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE NEW TRENDS IN THE APPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS IN SCIENCES (NTADES2021). AIP Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0087106.
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Hu, Bi, and Yuxia Tu. "Applied Research of the Real Option Theory in Real Estate Investment Decisions." In International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Management 2016. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784480274.140.
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Guo, Qing-e., Xue-qing Wang, and Zhen Wei. "Fuzzy real option analysis for highway project based on credibility theory." In 2011 IEEE 18th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management. IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icieem.2011.6034762.
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Xiaojian, Guo, and Jiang Tianci. "Study on IT Infrastructure Investment Appraisal Based on Real-option Theory." In 2010 International Conference on Challenges in Environmental Science and Computer Engineering. IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cesce.2010.51.
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d'Amato, Maurizio, and Paola Amoruso. "The Valuation of Hope Value in a Vacant Land Using Real Option Theory." In 25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. European Real Estate Society, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2016_8.
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Xiaoqing Xiu and Bei Li. "Study on energy storage system investment decision based on real option theory." In International Conference on Sustainable Power Generation and Supply (SUPERGEN 2012). Institution of Engineering and Technology, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1049/cp.2012.1796.
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Wu, Guowei, Hui Zhou, Weiwei Pan, and Yunhe Hou. "Life cycle management method for smart grid asset with real option theory." In 2012 3rd IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe (ISGT Europe). IEEE, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isgteurope.2012.6465811.
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