Relevant bibliographies by topics / Real GDP

Academic literature on the topic 'Real GDP'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 31 January 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Real GDP"

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Hashim, Emilda, Norimah Rambeli, Asmawi Hashim, Norasibah Abdul Jalil, Shahrun Nizam Abdul Aziz, and Noor Al Huda Abdul Karim. "Dynamic Relationship Between Real Export, Real Import, Real Exchange Rate, Labor Force and Real Gross Domestic Product in Malaysia." Research in World Economy 10, no. 5 (December 24, 2019): 20. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v10n5p20.

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This study examined short run and long run relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables. Specifically, it studied the relationship between real export, real import, labor force participation and real effective exchange rate (REER) and real GDP in Malaysia from 1988 to 2017. These variables were tested in various tests, namely, unit root test, granger causality test, vector autoregressive (VAR), Johansen Juselius test and Error Correction Term (ECT). The result revealed that all variables were non-stationary at the level form and stationary at first difference in ADF unit root test. The findings also exhibited the existence of bilateral relationships between real export and real GDP, real import and real GDP, as well as labor and real GDP. Nonetheless, there were no relationship found between REER and real GDP. On the other hand, in VAR, the lag optimum was lag 10 because it indicated the smallest value of AIC. Moreover, for Johansen Juselius cointegration test, it showed two cointegrated vector at both, 5% and 1%, level in trace test. In addition, Max-Eigen value test indicated two cointegrated vector at 0.05 and one cointegrated vector at 0.01. As for the Wald test, there were long run cointegration relationship between real GDP and its determinants, namely real export, real import, labor and REER. Apparently, Malaysia, as a small open economy, has relied heavily on foreign trade. Consequently, our domestic economic performance is susceptible to the changes in international markets and exchange rate. Therefore, suitable international policy implementation is vital to ensure Malaysian economy will be able to adjust to current global changes.
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Schiff, Aaron F., and Peter C. B. Phillips. "Forecasting New Zealand's real GDP." New Zealand Economic Papers 34, no. 2 (December 2000): 159–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00779950009544321.

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Franses, Philip Hans, and Max Welz. "Forecasting Real GDP Growth for Africa." Econometrics 10, no. 1 (January 5, 2022): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/econometrics10010003.

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We propose a simple and reproducible methodology to create a single equation forecasting model (SEFM) for low-frequency macroeconomic variables. Our methodology is illustrated by forecasting annual real GDP growth rates for 52 African countries, where the data are obtained from the World Bank and start in 1960. The models include lagged growth rates of other countries, as well as a cointegration relationship to capture potential common stochastic trends. With a few selection steps, our methodology quickly arrives at a reasonably small forecasting model per country. Compared with benchmark models, the single equation forecasting models seem to perform quite well.
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Henderson, David. "Rejoinder: Measuring and Comparing Real GDP." Economic Affairs 36, no. 1 (February 2016): 88–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12157.

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Summers, Lawrence H. "Comparing Real GDP Across Countries: Comment." Economic Affairs 36, no. 2 (June 2016): 221–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12184.

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Cahill, Miles B. "Teaching Chain-Weight Real GDP Measures." Journal of Economic Education 34, no. 3 (January 2003): 224–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00220480309595217.

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Rusnák, Marek. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time." Economic Modelling 54 (April 2016): 26–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.12.010.

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Kohli, Ulrich. "Real GDP, real domestic income, and terms-of-trade changes." Journal of International Economics 62, no. 1 (January 2004): 83–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2003.07.002.

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Hsing, Yu. "Is Currency Appreciation or Depreciation Expansionary in Kosovo?" Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business 22, no. 1 (May 1, 2019): 47–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/zireb-2019-0011.

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Abstract Applying an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000), this paper shows that real depreciation of the euro raises real GDP in Kosovo and that a lower real lending rate in the euro area, a higher real GDP in Germany, a lower real oil price, or a lower expected inflation rate would help increase real GDP. More government deficit spending as a percent of GDP does not affect real GDP.
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Golinelli, Roberto, and Giuseppe Parigi. "Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting." International Journal of Forecasting 24, no. 3 (July 2008): 368–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.05.001.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Real GDP"

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Rybanová, Soňa. "Relation between Globalisation and the Real Convergence: Does convergence of globalisation influence convergence of real GDP per capita?" Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-85839.

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This dissertation poses the question of whether there is a relationship between the speed of convergence of globalisation and the speed of convergence of GDP per capita. Firstly, the concepts of globalisation and real convergence and their relationship are thoroughly explained from both the theoretical and empirical point of view. And secondly, the answer to the question comes in the form of beta and sigma convergence analysis of this relationship. Thirdly, the analysis splits the countries into two groups (developed and developing countries) and finds interesting but ambiguous results in their comparison. Finally, in order to correctly interpret the results of absolute and conditional beta and sigma convergence, their theoretical and empirical overview is discussed in depth. The dissertation concludes by providing some answers to the initial question for every particular analysis. Namely, it shows that this relationship is indeed very ambiguous.
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Neto, Celso de Campos Toledo. "Ciclos do produto brasileiro: decomposição e análise em 'tempo real'." Universidade de São Paulo, 2004. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-28072004-110113/.

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Esta tese é composta de três artigos. O primeiro artigo aplica a metodologia proposta por Chari, Kehoe e McGrattan (2003) para decompor as flutuações da indústria brasileira, usualmente medidas por meio da aplicação de filtros mecânicos. Sugere-se que os ciclos encontrados pela utilização do filtro Hodrick Prescott (ou qualquer filtro band pass) englobam oscilações econômicas cuja origem pode ser deslocamentos tanto da demanda quanto da oferta. Em particular, as simulações a partir de dados reais indicam que a maior parte dos ciclos brasileiros têm origem na oferta. Este resultado sugere que a calibração da política monetária a partir da noção usual de “hiato do produto” é potencialmente falha. De fato, estimativas da curva IS a partir dos componentes cíclicos associados à oferta e à demanda mostra que o impacto negativo de uma elevação de juros é relativamente maior sobre a oferta. De certa forma, portanto, há um viés inflacionário no uso da política monetária. Uma estimativa da Curva de Philips com o componente cíclico associado às mudanças de demanda revela coeficiente positivo maior do que o observado em modelos estimados com a medida usual de “hiato do produto”. O segundo artigo compara a performance de filtros band pass com a do filtro Hodrick Prescott na determinação dos ciclos do produto brasileiro. Conclui-se, com base em inspeção do desempenho na amostra de dados disponível e em simulações de Monte Carlo, que o filtro Hodrick Prescott é inferior às alternativas consideradas quando o objetivo é extrair os ciclos em “tempo real”. Essa conclusão é válida para dois modelos estatísticos alternativos de descrição do PIB: (i) supondo que a variável é I(0) em torno de uma tendência linear com “quebras” e (ii) supondo que a variável é I(1). Há também robustez com relação ao parâmetro de comparação do desempenho dos filtros. O terceiro artigo obtém: (i) uma série do PIB trimestral dessazonalizado perfeitamente compatível com as variações anuais, desde 1980, corrigindo um problema de ajustamento existente na série disponível eletronicamente; (ii) uma série confiável desde 1970, a partir de técnicas de desagregação temporal utilizando indicadores; (iii) uma série trimestral desde 1947 que, provavelmente, preserva uma parcela razoável dos componentes do PIB normalmente associados aos ciclos econômicos e; (iv) uma série alternativa que, provavelmente, incorpora uma parte dos componentes irregulares do período que vai de 1956 a 1969.
The first paper applies the methodology proposed by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2003) to analyze cyclical fluctuations of the Brazilian industry, usually obtained by means of mechanical filters. The results suggest that filter-obtained cycles – using the Hodrick Prescott filter or a band pass filter – include components originated from supply and demand disturbances. Particularly, the simulations indicate that most Brazilian cycles are due to supply movements. This result leads to the conclusion that calibrating monetary policy based on a filter-obtained “output-gap” is potentially flawed. Indeed, IS curve estimations using supply-driven and demand-driven cyclical components show that the impact of monetary policy is more significant in the former than the latter. Thus, it would seem that there is an inflation bias in current monetary policy practice. The paper shows also that a Phillips Curve estimated from demand-driven cyclical components reveals a higher coefficient than one obtained by the usual regressions. The second paper compares the performance of band pass filters with the Hodrick Prescott filter in terms of their ability to extract the cycles of Brazilian GDP in “real time”. Using actual and artificial data, the simulations indicate that the Hodrick Prescott filter is inferior. This conclusion holds for two alternative models to describe the GDP dynamics: (i) supposing the series is I(0) around a deterministic trend with a few structural breaks and (ii) supposing the series is I(1). The results are also robust with respect to more than one benchmark chosen to evaluate the performance of the filters. The third paper obtains: (i) a seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series for the period 1980 to 2002, that is perfectly compatible with the annual National Accounts real variations, correcting a step problem present in the electronically available series; (ii) a reliable series going back to 1970, using temporal disaggregation methods with indicators; (iii) a series going back to 1947 that, most likely, preserves a reasonable amount of the cyclical components of the GDP and (iv) a series going back to 1956 that is likely to include part of the irregular components.
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Hussein, Siti Almafahaza. "Business and Real Estate Cycles The Kuala Lumpur Office Market." Thesis, KTH, Bygg- och fastighetsekonomi, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-77472.

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to apply the concept of business cycle and real estate cycle in term of their characteristics, period and sequence of the cycle to the Kuala Lumpur’s office market. Design/methodology/approach - The paper is based on previous literature review, facts, reports, and data in arriving at the conclusion of the study. Findings - This paper revealed the characteristics, period and sequence between business and real estate cycles to Kuala Lumpur’s office market. Research limitation/ Implications - The framework and flows of this paper act as an introduction for the paper. Lacks of literature and attention on the business and real estate cycles in Kuala Lumpur’s have created difficulties to gains information and data on this paper. Practical implications - This paper is important for the students, government and policy maker in order to further a research and develop a foundation for business and real estate cycles in Kuala Lumpur.
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Roihjert, Samuel, and Viktor Åhlander. "Real estate as an investment alternative in an environment with low interest rates and inflation – A comparison between Japan and Sweden." Thesis, KTH, Fastigheter och byggande, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-190176.

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Today’s market situation for real estate and property developers in Sweden is very unique. It is characterized by low to negative interest rates and low to no inflation. However, many of the existing economic theories are based on positive interest rates and a positive inflation. This has resulted in uncertainties for investors and market players how to assess this new situation and be able to adequately predict how this will affect the real estate market. The purpose of this thesis has been to investigate how a low interest rate and inflation environment affects real estate, as an investment alternative. The thesis looks closer on the Japanese market since they have had a low interest rate and inflation environment from the middle of 1990’s. The thesis has investigated what kind of relationship that exists between the return but also the prices from real estate and different macroeconomic variables such as the interest rate, the inflation and the GDP growth. The thesis has been performed at Vasakronan, a leading property company in Sweden. Vasakronan management has provided valuable guidance and assisted in making prioritizations of the very extensive data material. Real estate can be considered a good investment alternative and that they still generate a rate of return over time in a low interest rate and inflation environment. Furthermore the findings show that the interest rates and the inflation do not have any direct effect on the real estate returns in a low interest rate and inflation environment. However, we have found that it exist other variables that affect the real estate returns which in turn are affected by the interest rates and the inflation meaning that the returns for real estate are indirectly influenced by the interest rates and inflation. One of the most important variables is the GDP growth, which has an influential impact on the real estate returns. The demand and supply for real estate as well as the expectation concerning the future is also variables that influence the real estate market and returns. As long as the economy is growing as well as the demand is high and future expectations is positive, real estate can still be considered to be a relative secure and good investment.
Dagens situation på fastighetsmarknaden är väldigt unik. Den är präglad av låga och negativa räntor och låg inflation. Många av de existerande ekonomiska teorierna är baserade på positiva räntor och en positiv inflation. Detta har resulterat i osäkerheter på marknaden hur denna situation kan komma att påverka fastighetsmarknaden i framtiden. Syftet med detta arbete är att undersöka hur fastigheter som ett investeringsalternativ uppför sig i en miljö med låga räntor och inflation. I arbetet undersöker vi närmare Japans fastighetsmarknad eftersom de har haft låga räntor och inflation enda sedan mitten av 1990-talet. Vi kommer vidare undersöka vad för relation som existerar mellan både avkastningen på fastigheter och fastighetspriserna gentemot olika makroekonomiska variabler. De makroekonomiska variablerna är räntan, inflationen och ekonomisk tillväxt i form av BNP. Detta arbete har skrivits i sammarbete med Vasakronan, Sveriges största fastighetsbolag där de har assisterat oss I nödvänding vägledning under arbetsprocessen. Beträffande hur fastigheter uppför sig i en miljö med låga räntor och inflation som är observerat idag har vi funnit att de fortfarande genererar en avkastning över tid och kan anses som ett bra investeringsalternativ. Vi har funnit att räntorna och inflationen inte verkar ha samma direkta effekt som kunde förväntas gällande avkastningarna för fastigheter i en miljö med låga räntor och inflation. Däremot har vi funnit att det existerar andra variabler som påverkar fastigheters avkastning, vilka är direkt påverkade av räntorna och inflationen. Det betyder att räntorna och inflationen ändå indirekt påverkar fastigheters avkastningar. En av de viktigaste faktorerna är den ekonomiska tillväxten som har en tydlig påverkan på fastigheters avkastning och priser. Utbud och efterfråga tillsammans med framtida förväntningar är också viktiga variabler som påverkar fastighetsmarknaden och deras avkastningar. Så länge det existerar ekonomisk tillväxt tillsammans med optimistiska förväntningar på framtiden och en hög efterfrågan så kan fastigheter betraktas som en god och ett säkert investeringsalternativ
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Hlongwane, Tshembhani Mackson. "The effect of South African public debt on economic growth: An ARDL cointegration approach from 1961-2017." University of Western Cape, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/7927.

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Magister Commercii - MCom
This study investigates the effect of public debt on economic growth in South Africa since 1961-2017. Public debt stock is disaggregated into external debt and domestic debt in order to determine the effect of each on economic growth independently. The study employed the ARDL bound test to estimate the long and short run relationship among several macroeconomic variables - real economic growth, domestic debt, external debt, budget deficit, inflation rate and investment. An error correction model was used to analyses the short-run disequilibrium. The results show that there is a short and long run equilibrium relationship between foreign debt, domestic debt, budget deficit, inflation rate and economic growth. The empirical results indicate that external debt negatively affects the real GDP growth in South Africa, both in the short and long-run. Several policy implications emerged from the empirical results. To keep public debt more manageable, South Africa should improve its debt management. Furthermore, the country can make use of debt to equity swaps by privatizing underperforming parastatals. This would make them competitive and efficient.
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Janíčko, Martin. "Vliv vývoje ekonomiky Německa na hospodářskou výkonnost České republiky v letech 1993-2005." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2007. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-4437.

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The most important aim of the thesis is to find out how strong was the impact of the German economic development on the Czech economy from 1993 to 2005, through what kind of linkages could have been such an impact effective, and what are the future prospects in this field.
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Svatošová, Ludmila. "Odhad potenciálního produktu v ČR a jeho vztah k hospodářskému cyklu." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-163391.

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Potential output is used as the indicator of the business cycle. The aim of this study is to compare the results of different methods used for estimating potential output and verify the hypothesis that potential output or rather the output gap can serve as a reliable indicator to determine the phase of the business cycle in the Czech Republic in the years 1996-2012. 6 different methods - linear trend, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Baxter-King filter, Butterworth filter, Kalman filter and the production function have been used to estimate potential output. The output gap was determined based on the estimated potential output. The comparison of the results of all methods has confirmed the same development trend of potential output. All the methods for estimating potential output, except Butterworth filter, have showed that their results are good indicators of the business cycle in the Czech Republic.
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Pumpalavičiūtė, Jurgita. "Nekilnojamojo turto rinka Lietuvoje. Jos ryšys su bankininkystės ir kitais sektoriais bei įtaka šalies ekonomikai." Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2006. http://vddb.library.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2006~D_20060327_161042-47300.

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The topic of this Master’s thesis is the Lithuanian real estate market and its influence on the country’s economy. The paper elaborates problematic issues of the real estate market: sudden changes, price and demand surges and decrease in supply; as well as influence of such factors as artificial inflation of prices on the future of the economy and potential threats to the welfare of the citizens. The author also advises on making investments and engaging in the real estate market or choosing a personal housing in the context of current sudden changes of the market and prices. A lot of attention is paid to the housing loans, as improvement of conditions for receiving such a loan increases the number of people taking loans and, therefore, increases the demand for real estate, consumer goods and household appliances; increased consumption stimulates growth of the GDP and general economic development.
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Urman, Maxwell J. "The End of the Three Percent Rule: How Structural Changes in the U.S. Economy have Impacted Economic Growth." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2017. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1508.

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Using data from government sources (FRED, BEA, BLS), the thesis explores the underlying reasons for declining U.S. economic growth. A long standing trend of annual 3% growth no longer seems to hold true for the economy. The paper summarizes current theory as to why the growth has slowed and finds new explanations by analyzing the various major industries which make up GDP. The results show that sectoral shifts in employment from high paying industries to low paying industries help to explain a significant portion of the decline in national growth rates. The decline in growth is primarily driven by about ten poor performing states.
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Lackson, Daniel Mudenda. "Pollution, Electricity Consumption, and Income in the Context of Trade Openness in Zambia." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-124715.

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This paper examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and tests for causality using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). There is evidence of long-run relationships in the three models under consideration. The Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) finds no evidence to support the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Zambia in the long-run. The evidence from the long-run suggests an opposite of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), in that the results indicate a U-shaped curve relationship between income and carbon emission. The conclusion on causality based on the VECM is that there is evidence of neutrality hypothesis between either total electricity and income or between industrial electricity and income in the short-run Additionally, there is evidence of conservation hypothesis in the context of residential and agricultural electricity consumption.
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Books on the topic "Real GDP"

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Macdonald, Ryan. Real GDP and the purchasing power of provincial output. Ottawa, Ont: Statistics Canada, Micro-Economic Analysis Division, 2007.

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Feenstra, Robert C. Who shrunk China?: Puzzles in the measurement of real GDP. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2012.

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Feenstra, Robert C. Who shrunk China?: Puzzles in the measurement of real GDP. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2012.

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Arby, Muhammad Farooq. Long-run trend, business cycles and short-run shocks in real GDP. Karachi: State Bank of Pakistan, 2001.

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Wong, Jason. Forecasting inflation and real GDP: Bayesian VAR models of the New Zealand economy. [Wellington]: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 1993.

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Giannone, Domenico. Nowcasting gdp and inflation: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases. Washington, D.C: Federal Reserve Board, 2005.

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Debs, Alexandre. Testing for a structural break in the volatility of real GDP growth in Canada. Ottawa: Bank of Canada, 2001.

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Harris, C. P. Some features of interstate differences in real output in Australia, 1977-78 to 1992-93 with reference to differences in levels and growth of real GDP at factor cost and real GDP at factor cost per head of population. Townsville, Queensland: James Cook University of North Queensland, Dept. of Economics, 1994.

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Kim, Chang-Jin. A Bayesian approach to counterfactual analysis with an application to the volatility reduction in U.S. real GDP. [St. Louis, Mo.]: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2004.

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Donaldson, Stephen R. The real story: The gap into conflict. New York: Bantam Books, 1991.

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Book chapters on the topic "Real GDP"

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Heim, John J. "Statistically Estimated Real GDP Determination Functions (“IS” Curves)." In An Econometric Model of the US Economy, 229–38. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50681-4_7.

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Ndou, Eliphas, Nombulelo Gumata, and Mthuli Ncube. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Exports and GDP Growth Dynamics." In Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks, 113–30. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62280-4_6.

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Jakovac, Pavle, Nela Vlahinic Lenz, and Sasa Zikovic. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Electricity Generation on Croatian Real GDP: Causality Analysis." In Entrepreneurship, Business and Economics - Vol. 2, 209–30. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27573-4_14.

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Heim, John J. "Real GDP Determination Function ( “IS” Curve) Coefficients Aggregated from Parameter Estimates Obtained By Statistically Estimating The Subcomponent Functions Comprising The GDP." In An Econometric Model of the US Economy, 239–52. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50681-4_8.

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Jinji, Naoto, Xingyuan Zhang, and Shoji Haruna. "Introduction and Overview." In Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, 1–20. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-5210-3_1.

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AbstractThe world economy was severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It was estimated that the annual growth in the world’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 would be $$-3.3$$ - 3.3 % (International Monetary Fund (IMF) 2021). World trade simultaneously contracted sharply.
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Mokhtarzadeh, Fatemeh. "A global vector autoregression model for softwood lumber trade." In International trade in forest products: lumber trade disputes, models and examples, 174–93. Wallingford: CABI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789248234.0008.

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Abstract A novel econometric approach is developed in this chapter, namely, the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. It provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the country-level impacts of various domestic, foreign, and/or global shocks on softwood lumber trade. The GVAR approach is applied to Canada-U.S. trade in softwood lumber and used to analyze the effect of external shocks on Canadian lumber prices. Findings indicate that Canada's export prices are positively correlated to U.S. housing starts and real GDP. Further, using impulse response functions, it is used to examine the effects on regional lumber export prices in Canada of: (1) a change in U.S. housing starts; (2) a reduction in U.S. GDP by one standard deviation; (3) a COVID-19 induced decline in U.S. GDP (of three standard deviations); (4) an increase in global oil prices; and, in the Appendix, (5) an increase in the long-term interest rate. Price impacts vary a great deal by Canadian region depending on the type of shock, with the propagation mechanism in Alberta significantly different from that in other regions. For example, with an oil price shock and because Alberta is a major exporter of oil, the lumber export price remains high even as the shock dissipates over time.
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Mokhtarzadeh, Fatemeh. "A global vector autoregression model for softwood lumber trade." In International trade in forest products: lumber trade disputes, models and examples, 174–93. Wallingford: CABI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789248234.0174.

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Abstract A novel econometric approach is developed in this chapter, namely, the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. It provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the country-level impacts of various domestic, foreign, and/or global shocks on softwood lumber trade. The GVAR approach is applied to Canada-U.S. trade in softwood lumber and used to analyze the effect of external shocks on Canadian lumber prices. Findings indicate that Canada's export prices are positively correlated to U.S. housing starts and real GDP. Further, using impulse response functions, it is used to examine the effects on regional lumber export prices in Canada of: (1) a change in U.S. housing starts; (2) a reduction in U.S. GDP by one standard deviation; (3) a COVID-19 induced decline in U.S. GDP (of three standard deviations); (4) an increase in global oil prices; and, in the Appendix, (5) an increase in the long-term interest rate. Price impacts vary a great deal by Canadian region depending on the type of shock, with the propagation mechanism in Alberta significantly different from that in other regions. For example, with an oil price shock and because Alberta is a major exporter of oil, the lumber export price remains high even as the shock dissipates over time.
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Gumata, Nombulelo, and Eliphas Ndou. "How Do Global Real Policy Rates Impact the South African GDP Growth and Labour Market Conditions?" In Capital Flows, Credit Markets and Growth in South Africa, 141–47. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30888-9_8.

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Ndou, Eliphas, and Thabo Mokoena. "How Does Inflation Impact the Effects of Expansionary Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policies on Real GDP Growth?" In Inequality, Output-Inflation Trade-Off and Economic Policy Uncertainty, 389–98. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19803-9_27.

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De Keyzer, Maïka. "How was City Life?: Moving beyond GDP and Real Income to Measure Pre-modern Welfare and Inequality Levels." In Studies in European Urban History (1100-1800), 359–76. Turnhout, Belgium: Brepols Publishers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1484/m.seuh-eb.5.120455.

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Conference papers on the topic "Real GDP"

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Ganjouhaghighi, Negar. "Causality analysis between electricity consumption and real GDP, GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, government spending, and total national savings in Iran." In 2014 5th Conference on Thermal Power Plants (CTPP). IEEE, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ctpp.2014.7040610.

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Qian, Huachao, Jian Chen, Qi Wang, and Chen Liu. "A Panel Data Analysis on the Relationship Between Real Estate Value And GDP." In 2nd International Conference on Civil, Materials and Environmental Sciences. Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/cmes-15.2015.39.

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Maruping, Hlompo, and Itumeleng Mongale. "THE REAL INFLUENCES OF OIL PRICE CHANGES ON THE GROWTH OF REAL GDP: THE CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA." In 21st International Academic Conference, Miami. International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.20472/iac.2016.021.023.

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"The influence of real GDP on rental growth of residential properties in Ede, Nigeria." In WABER 2019 Conference. WABER Conference, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.33796/waberconference2019.77.

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Taşseven, Özlem, and Naci Yılmaz. "Determinants of Chinese Exports to the United States: An Empirical Analysis." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c13.02551.

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The main objective of this study is to investigate the short and the long run relationships between bilateral export performance of China to United States using variables such as the real exchange rate of dollar to yuan, the growth of per capita US GDP, the growth of per capita Chinese GDP. The annual data covers the period between 2001 and 2018. The Johansen testing approach to cointegration is performed in the estimation process. The causalities among the variables in the model are determined based on the estimated models. The empirical results reveal that the variables of interest are cointegrated. Real exchange rate has no significant effect on Chinese exports to the US, whereas the growth of per capita US GDP and the growth of per capita GDP of China have positive and significant effects. Our findings suggest that United States should concentrate on the growth of both two countries rather than focusing on the low level of Chinese domestic currency.
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Afanasiev, A. A., and O. S. Ponomareva. "Econometric forecasting for 1992-2020 GDP of Russia and natural gas production by Gazprom in Tyumen region." In X-th International School-Seminar "Multivariate statistical analysis, econometrics and simulation of real processes". CEMI RAS, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.33276/978-5-8211-0797-8-19-23.

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Charfeddine, Lanouar, and Karim Barkat. "Do Oil and Gas Revenues promote Economic Diversification in Qatar?" In Qatar University Annual Research Forum & Exhibition. Qatar University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.29117/quarfe.2020.0048.

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The aim of this paper is to explore the short- and long-term asymmetric impact of oil prices shocks and oil and gas revenues changes on the total real GDP, and the level of economic diversification of the Qatar economy. To this end, two econometric approaches have been used: (1) the A-B structural vector autoregressive (AB − SVARX) model with exogenous variables where four different asymmetric oil prices and oil and gas revenues measures have been employed, and (2) the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. The results show that, in the short-run, the responses of both total real GDP and non-oil real GDP to negative shocks on real oil prices and real oil and gas revenues are higher than the impact of positive shocks, indicating evidence for the existence of asymmetric impact of shocks in the short-run. However, the results suggest that the impact of shocks do not last more than three quarters. This evidence for the existence of asymmetric behavior is also confirmed by the NARDL analysis, which shows that, in the long run, positive oil prices shocks and oil and gas revenues changes have higher impact on the two proxies of economic activity than negative changes do. A result that confirms the resilience of the Qatar economy to negative shocks and the positive role played by the energy sector in improving the Qatar economic diversification degree. Finally, the results show that the non-oil sector is completely resilient to negative shocks in the long run as the impact of negative shocks are insignificant on the non-oil real GDP. Several policies aimed to improve the level of economic diversification of the country and delink the government revenues from oil and gas revenues are proposed and discussed.
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Yan, Ming, and Qian Chen. "Co-integration analysis among real estate investment, GDP and output of new wall materials in China." In 2011 6th International Conference on Product Innovation Management (ICPIM). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icpim.2011.5983619.

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Destek, Mehmet Akif, Müge Manga, and Neşe Algan. "Investigation on the Validity of Natural Resource Curse Hypothesis in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c09.01979.

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This study aims to investigate the validity of natural resource curse hypothesis in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries for the period from 1980 to 2014. In doing so, the relationship between real GDP, natural resource abundance, financial development and gross fixed capital is examined using with second generation panel data methodology which allows to cross-sectional dependence among countries. In case of mean group estimation, it is concluded that natural resource rents, financial development and capital positively affects the real GDP in GCC countries. However, in case of individual country estimations, we found that natural resource curse hypothesis is valid only in United Arab Emirates.
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Esaa, Ayat Abdelrahim Suliman, Harun Bal, and Erhan İşcan. "The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Panel Cointegration Approach in the Middle East and North Africa Countries (1980-2017)." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c11.02296.

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This study examines the hypothesis of the Export-Led Growth in the seven selected Middle East and North Africa countries, the hypothesis state that export growth driven by export promotion policies enhances overall economic growth. Empirical investigations have tended to focus attention on the direction of causality between exports and economic growth using Granger causality tests. However, the empirical results based on these tests are, at best, mixed and often contradictory. The paper employs panel data analysis by utilizing the Pedroni panel cointegration, Pedroni Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares and Fully Modify Ordinary Least Squares, and Canning-Pedroni causality methods, a recent development in panel data econometrics, properties of integration and cointegration and consistency of parameters. The study considers the following three variables; Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Real exports (EXP) and Real import (IMP). Annual secondary data are obtained from the World Bank Development Indicator for seven MENA countries, Namely, Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar. The empirical results emphasize the existence of a positive relationship between Export and GDP. Results of waled and Z-bar Group statistics indicate the long-run unidirectional causality between Export and GDP, operates from Export to the GDP. It confirms the validity of Export-led growth hypothesis of the seven selected MENA countries. Empirical evidence suggests significant policy prescriptions; these countries should focus more on supporting export orientated industries through aid-for-trade, trade-capacity building schemes and other types of policies in order to promote economic growth.
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Reports on the topic "Real GDP"

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Susnjak, Teo, and Christoph Schumacher. Nowcasting: Towards Real-time GDP Prediction. Knowledge Exchange Hub, December 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.33217/keh/gdplive/001/12.2018.

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Feldstein, Martin. Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income and Productivity. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w23306.

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Feenstra, Robert, Hong Ma, J. Peter Neary, and D. S. Prasada Rao. Who Shrunk China? Puzzles in the Measurement of Real GDP. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w17729.

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Gordon, Robert. A New Method of Estimating Potential Real GDP Growth: Implications for the Labor Market and the Debt/GDP Ratio. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w20423.

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Batyr, A. V., Володимир Миколайович Соловйов, and E. P. Sedov. The Cyclic Surgings as One of the Reasons of the Modern Economical Crisis. Information Systems Management Institute, April 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/0564/1130.

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Since the problem of the world economical crisis is gaming importance nowadays, it becomes necessary to reveal its real nature and reasons, in order to act in the most adequate way. The cycle theory is a possible explanation for the current situation in the economy.We have carried out our own investigation, during which the economies of USA, United Kingdom and France in 1961-2007 were compared. The real GDP and unemployment dynamics were taken into consideration. We also paid attention to historical events of the period and Kondratiev’s empiric truths, in order to explain both the most powerful crises and the modern one.
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González Rozada, Martín, and Hernán Ruffo. Do Trade Agreements Contribute to the Decline in Labor Share? Evidence from Latin American Countries. Inter-American Development Bank, November 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003790.

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In this paper, we explore the role of trade in the evolution of labor share in Latin American countries. We use trade agreements with large economies (the United States, the European Union, and China) to capture the effect of sharp changes in trade. In the last two decades, labor share has displayed a negative trend among those countries that signed trade agreements, while in other countries labor share increased, widening the gap by 7 percentage points. We apply synthetic control methods to estimate the average causal impact of trade agreements on labor share. While effects are heterogeneous in our eight case studies, the average impact is negative between 2 to 4 percentage points of GDP four years after the entry into force of the trade agreements. This result is robust to the specification used and to the set of countries in the donor pool. We also find that, after trade agreements, exports of manufactured goods and the share of industry in GDP increase on average, most notably in the case studies where negative effects on labor share are significant. A decomposition shows that all the reduction in labor share is explained by a negative impact on real wages.
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Beirne, John, and Eric Sugandi. Risk-Off Shocks and Spillovers in Safe Havens. Asian Development Bank Institute, November 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.56506/guux7790.

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We examine real and financial spillovers to safe haven financial flow destinations due to risk-off shocks in global financial markets. Using country-specific structural vector autoregression models over the period 1990 to 2021, we show that dynamics for Japan appear to be different to those of Switzerland and the United States in four main ways. First, in response to risk-off episodes over the estimation period, the yen real effective exchange rate appreciates sharply and significantly, with the effect persisting over time. Second, no significant effects on portfolio flows to Japan are found, in spite of the exchange rate effects, suggesting a rapid adjustment of financial markets to shifts in equilibrium exchange rates. Third, negative real spillovers from risk-off shocks appear to only apply to Japan with exchange rate appreciation exacerbating declines in GDP growth. Fourth, risk-off shocks do not have a statistically significant effect on domestic economic policy uncertainty in Japan, which may be related to the strong expectations priced in of overseas portfolio holdings repatriated back to Japan. Our findings have important implications for policy makers in safe haven destinations in managing domestic financial vulnerabilities associated with risk-off episodes.
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Tian, Nan, Aude Fleurant, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Siemon T. Wezeman. Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2016. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, April 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.55163/zzcw7025.

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World military expenditure is estimated to have been $1686 billion in 2016, equivalent to 2.2 per cent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) or $227 per person. The 2016 estimate is a marginal increase of about 0.4 per cent in real terms on 2015. After 13 consecutive years of increases (from 1998 to 2011), world military spending has continued to plateau—with only minor decreases between 2011 and 2014 (an average of 0.7 per cent per annum) and slight increases in 2015 and 2016. From 24 April 2017 the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database includes newly released information on military expenditure in 2016. This Fact Sheet describes the global, regional and national trends in military expenditure that are revealed by the new data.
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Beuermann, Diether, Henry Mooney, Elton Bollers, David Rosenblatt, Maria Alejandra Zegarra, Laura Giles Álvarez, Gralyn Frazier, et al. Caribbean Quarterly Bulletin 2020: Volume 9: Issue 4, December 2020. Inter-American Development Bank, December 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0002948.

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For most Caribbean countries, the COVID-19 pandemic will translate into the deepest single-year contraction of real GDP on record in 2020. With the exception of Guyana, countries have experienced deep recessions, severe increases in unemployment, and long-lasting damage to many corporate and household balance sheets. The social consequences of the crisis continue to mount, and despite governments best efforts to buffer the shock to families, enterprises, and domestic markets, there remains a dire need for continued and more broad-based stimulus to ensure that economic capital both human and other wise remains intact. This edition of the Caribbean Quarterly Bulletin briefly reflects on notable economic developments in 2020, then shifts to longer-term issues, including a summary of an upcoming IDB publication, Economic Institutions for a Resilient Caribbean, as well as summaries of the book's key diagnostics and recommendations for each country. In some cases, country sections focus on specific areas of institutional reforms. For example, the Suriname section focuses on fiscal institutions, given the public debt distress there.
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Mascagni, Giulia, and Adrienne Lees. Using Administrative Data to Assess the Impact of the Pandemic in Low-Income Countries: An Application with VAT Data in Rwanda. Institute of Development Studies, March 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/ictd.2021.004.

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This paper uses administrative data from Value Added Tax (VAT) returns to provide insights on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Rwanda. We show that the lockdown in Rwanda had a severe impact on the domestic economy, despite relatively low case numbers. However, the economy quickly rebounded after restrictions were lifted, with overall sales losses amounting to 5 per cent of GDP. Although in absolute terms, these losses are concentrated amongst the largest firms, in proportional terms, small firms have been worse affected. We also show that firms providing accommodation, food and transport services, as well as those based in the capital, have been particularly affected by the crisis. Overall, the decline in economic activity translates to a 5.1 per cent loss in VAT revenue for the government. Our results offer policy-makers evidence on the real impact of the crisis, both in aggregate terms and disaggregated by firm size, sector, and location. In a literature that has largely focused on higher-income countries, these results complement projections to inform appropriate policy responses in the specific context of low-income countries.
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