Academic literature on the topic 'Rat Barrel Cortex Dynamics'

In rats, navigating through an environment requires continuous information about objects near the head. Sensory information such as object location and surface texture are encoded by spike firing patterns of single neurons within rat barrel cortex. Although there are many studies using single-unit electrophysiology, much less is known regarding the spatiotemporal pattern of activity of populations of neurons in barrel cortex in response to whisker stimulation. To examine cortical response at the population level, we used voltage-sensitive dye (VSD) imaging to examine ensemble spatiotemporal dynamics of barrel cortex in response to stimulation of single or two adjacent whiskers in urethane-anesthetized rats. Single whisker stimulation produced a poststimulus fluorescence response peak within 12–16 ms in the barrel corresponding to the stimulated whisker (principal whisker). This fluorescence subsequently propagated throughout the barrel field, spreading anisotropically preferentially along a barrel row. After paired whisker stimulation, the VSD signal showed sublinear summation (less than the sum of 2 single whisker stimulations), consistent with previous electrophysiological and imaging studies. Surprisingly, we observed a spatial shift in the center of activation occurring over a 10- to 20-ms period with shift magnitudes of 1–2 barrels. This shift occurred predominantly in the posteromedial direction within the barrel field. Our data thus reveal previously unreported spatiotemporal patterns of barrel cortex activation. We suggest that this nontopographical shift is consistent with known functional and anatomic asymmetries in barrel cortex and that it may provide an important insight for understanding barrel field activation during whisking behavior.

Local circuitry within layer IV whisker-related barrels is preferentially sensitive to thalamic population firing synchrony, and neurons respond most vigorously to stimuli, such as high-velocity whisker deflections, that evoke it. Field potential recordings suggest that thalamic barreloid neurons having similar angular preferences fire synchronously. To examine whether angular tuning of cortical neurons might also be affected by thalamic firing synchrony, we characterized responses of layer IV units to whisker deflections that varied in angular direction and velocity. Barrel regular-spike units (RSUs) became more tuned for deflection angle with slower whisker movements. Deflection amplitude had no affect. Barrel fast-spike units (FSUs) were poorly tuned for deflection angle, and their responses remained constant with different deflection velocity. The dependence of angular tuning on deflection velocity among barrel RSUs appears to reflect the same underlying response dynamics that determine their velocity sensitivity and receptive field focus. Unexpectedly, septal RSUs and FSUs are largely similar to their barrel counterparts despite available evidence suggesting that they receive different afferent inputs and are embedded within different local circuits.

Sheth, Bhavin R., Christopher I. Moore, and Mriganka Sur. Temporal modulation of spatial borders in rat barrel cortex. J. Neurophysiol. 79: 464–470, 1998. We examined the effects of varying vibrissa stimulation frequency on intrinsic signal and neuronal responses in rat barrel cortex. Optical imaging of intrinsic signals demonstrated that the region of cortex activated by deflection of a single vibrissa at 1 Hz is more diffuse and more widespread than the territory activated at 5 or 10 Hz. With the use of two different paradigms, constant time of stimulation and constant number of vibrissa deflections, we showed that the optically imaged spread of activity is more discrete at higher stimulation frequencies. We combined optical imaging with multiple electrode recording and confirmed that the neuronal response to individual vibrissa stimulation at the optically imaged center of activity is greater than the response away from the imaged center. Consistent with the imaging data, these recordings also showed no response to a second vibrissa deflection at 5 Hz at a peripheral recording site, though there was a significant response to a second vibrissa deflection at 1 Hz at the same peripheral site. These findings demonstrate that vibrissa stimulation at higher frequencies leads to more focused physiological responses in cortex. Thus the spread of activation in rat barrel cortex is modulated in a dynamic fashion by the frequency of vibrissa stimulation.

We present a dynamic causal model that can explain context-dependent changes in neural responses, in the rat barrel cortex, to an electrical whisker stimulation at different frequencies. Neural responses were measured in terms of local field potentials. These were converted into current source density (CSD) data, and the time series of the CSD sink was extracted to provide a time series response train. The model structure consists of three layers (approximating the responses from the brain stem to the thalamus and then the barrel cortex), and the latter two layers contain nonlinearly coupled modules of linear second-order dynamic systems. The interaction of these modules forms a nonlinear regulatory system that determines the temporal structure of the neural response amplitude for the thalamic and cortical layers. The model is based on the measured population dynamics of neurons rather than the dynamics of a single neuron and was evaluated against CSD data from experiments with varying stimulation frequency (1–40 Hz), random pulse trains, and awake and anesthetized animals. The model parameters obtained by optimization for different physiological conditions (anesthetized or awake) were significantly different. Following Friston, Mechelli, Turner, and Price ( 2000 ), this work is part of a formal mathematical system currently being developed (Zheng et al., 2005 ) that links stimulation to the blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signal through neural activity and hemodynamic variables. The importance of the model described here is that it can be used to invert the hemodynamic measurements of changes in blood flow to estimate the underlying neural activity.

The short-term plasticity of synaptic transmission between excitatory neurons within a barrel of layer 4 rat somatosensory neocortex was investigated. Action potentials in presynaptic neurons at frequencies ranging from 1 to 100 Hz evoked depressing postsynaptic excitatory postsynaptic potentials (EPSPs). Recovery from synaptic depression followed an exponential time course with best-fit parameters that differed greatly between individual synaptic connections. The average maximal short-term depression was close to 0.5 with a recovery time constant of around 500 ms. Analysis of each individual sweep showed that there was a correlation between the amplitude of the response to the first and second action potentials such that large first EPSPs were followed by smaller than average second EPSPs and vice versa. Short-term depression between excitatory layer 4 neurons can thus be termed use dependent. A simple model describing use-dependent short-term plasticity was able to closely simulate the experimentally observed dynamic behavior of these synapses for regular spike trains. More complex irregular trains of 10 action potentials occurring within 500 ms were initially well described, but during the train errors increased. Thus for short periods of time the dynamic behavior of these synapses can be predicted accurately. In conjunction with data describing the connectivity, this forms a first step toward computational modeling of the excitatory neuronal network of layer 4 barrel cortex. Simulation of whisking-evoked activity suggests that short-term depression may provide a mechanism for enhancing the detection of objects within the whisker space.

Identifying the properties of correlations in the firing of neocortical neurons is central to our understanding of cortical information processing. It has been generally assumed, by virtue of the columnar organization of the neocortex, that the firing of neurons residing in a certain vertical domain is highly correlated. On the other hand, firing correlations between neurons steeply decline with horizontal distance. Technical difficulties in sampling neurons with sufficient spatial information have precluded the critical evaluation of these notions. We used 128-channel “silicon probes” to examine the spike-count noise correlations during spontaneous activity between multiple neurons with identified laminar position and over large horizontal distances in the anesthetized rat barrel cortex. Eigen decomposition of correlation coefficient matrices revealed that the laminar position of a neuron is a significant determinant of these correlations, such that the fluctuations of layer 5B/6 neurons are in opposite direction to those of layers 5A and 4. Moreover, we found that within each experiment, the distribution of horizontal, intralaminar spike-count correlation coefficients, up to a distance of ∼1.5 mm, is practically identical to the distribution of vertical correlations. Taken together, these data reveal that the neuron's laminar position crucially affects its role in cortical processing. Moreover, our analyses reveal that this laminar effect extends over several functional columns. We propose that within the cortex the influence of the horizontal elements exists in a dynamic balance with the influence of the vertical domain and this balance is modulated with brain states to shape the network's behavior.

There are two types of excitatory neurons within layer IV of rat somatosensory cortex: star pyramidal (SP) and spiny stellate cells (SS). We examined the intrinsic properties and connectivity between these neurons to determine differences in function. Eighty-four whole cell recordings of pairs of neurons were examined in slices of rat barrel cortex at 36 ± 1°C. Only minimal differences in intrinsic properties were found; however, differences in synaptic strength could clearly be shown. Connections between homonymous pairs (SS–SS or SP–SP) had a higher efficacy than heteronymous connections. This difference was mainly a result of quantal content. In 42 pairs, synaptic dynamics were examined. Sequences of action potentials (3–20 Hz) in the presynaptic neuron consistently caused synaptic depression ( Ē2/ Ē1 = 0.53 ± 0.18). The dominant component of depression was release-independent; this depression occurred even when preceding action potentials had failed to cause a response. The release-dependence of depression was target specific; in addition, release-independence was greater for postsynaptic SPs. In a subset of connections formed only between SP and any other cell type (43%), synaptic efficacy was dependent on the presynaptic membrane potential ( Vm); at −55 mV, the connections were almost silent, whereas at −85 mV, transmission was very reliable. We suggest that, within layer IV, there is stronger efficacy between homonymous than between heteronymous excitatory connections. Under dynamic conditions, the functional connectivity is shaped by synaptic efficacy at individual connections, by Vm, and by the specificity in the types of synaptic depression.

Recent studies have demonstrated that a rat can be trained to behaviourally report the electrical stimulation of a single cortical neuron (Houweling and Brecht, 2008). Other studies have reported detection of the optogenetic stimulation of ~300 neurons (Huber et al., 2008). However, although the animal can detect the stimulation, it is unclear what effect this small perturbation is having on the network and to what degree this will alter the animal’s ability to perform a task. This thesis investigates the effect on both the local network and on behaviour of several magnitudes of neuronal perturbation, from a single spike to the excitation of several thousand neurons. Finding the limitations under which a network can function provides powerful insights into how neurons interact to form meaningful networks. I performed simultaneous intra- and multi-unit extracellular recordings from the rat barrel cortex. I introduced a single spike into the patched neuron, and monitored the evolution of network activity via the extracellular probe. I found that the introduction of a single spike in a neuron produces a detectable increase in firing rate in the local network. To extend the investigation, channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2), a light-sensitive membrane protein, was electroporated under visual control into a small number (1 - 10) of layer 2/3 pyramidal cells in the somatosensory cortex of the adult mouse. After exciting the ChR2-positive neurons, the resulting network activity was measured both by cell-attached and whole-cell patch-clamp recordings from nearby neurons and by monitoring up to 50 nearby cells in different cortical layers using the multi-site silicon probe. I found that excitation of a small number of neurons caused an increase in the spike rate of the local network, which lasted up to 300 ms. On the next level, large-scale perturbations were introduced into the brain by the optogenetic excitation of several thousand neurons in the cortexof transgenic mice expressing ChR2 under the Thy1 promoter. A short (2-20 ms) pulse of blue light produced a strong initial response, measured in both the LFP and spiking activity across supragranular layers of the barrel cortex. This initial response was often followed by ~5 bursts of spikes which resulted in an oscillation in the LFP. This oscillation was found to be of similar frequency and time-scale to an oscillation recorded in the barrel cortex resulting from the deflection of a single whisker. After pharmacologically blocking activity in the thalamus, confirmed by loss of the whisker response, the light-induced oscillations disappeared, indicating that the thalamus is necessary for their propagation. Optogenetic stimulation was also able to generate oscillations in the awake animal. I investigated the effect of such a large perturbation on mice undergoing a simple whisker-deflection discrimination task. It was found that the performance of the mice initially dropped to chance level if a strong perturbation was delivered 100 ms before the sensory stimulation. If the strong perturbation was sustained for every trial, the performance of the mice did not improve. If the perturbing stimulation was removed and then introduced gradually, the animal was able to adapt to the stimulation and learn to perform the task despite the perturbation. In summary, small perturbations have a measurable effect on the local network, implying the use of a rate code for at least some brain states in the barrel cortex. A large perturbation produces a strong cortical response, which often leads to a strong oscillation. The same stimulus interferes with the behaviour of a mouse undergoing a simple task, and yet the mouse can learn to perform accurately despite the noise. Together, these findings suggest a coding regime with high degrees of redundancy and robustness. Although the cortical activity patterns are easily perturbed - even a single spike causes a temporary increase in firing rate - this disturbance does not have debilitating effects on the behaviour or the experience of the animal.

The GABAergic system in adult sensory cortex is affected by sensory deprivation, but little is known about how this predominant inhibitory system is affected during ontogeny. The present study investigates developmental effects of whisker trimming on GABAa receptors in rat barrel cortex. Rats trimmed for 6 wk beginning at birth and adulthood showed similar decreases in [3H]muscimol binding in deprived relative to non-deprived barrels, suggesting absence of a critical period.

Die Aktionspotential (AP) -Aktivität einzelner kortikaler Neuronen kann messbare sensorische Effekte hervorrufen. Es ist jedoch nicht bekannt, wie AP-Sequenzen Parameter und spezifische neuronale Subtypen die hervorgerufenen Sinnesempfindungen beeinflussen. Hier haben wir einen ‘Reverse-Physiology‘ Ansatz angewendet, um die Beziehung zwischen der Aktivität einzelner Neuronen und der Empfindung zu untersuchen. Zunächst wird der Prozess der Nanostimulation, eine von der juxtazellulären Markierungstechnik abgeleiteten Einzelzell-Stimulationsmethode, detailliert beschrieben. Nanostimulation ist einfach anzuwenden und kann auf eine Vielzahl von identifizierbaren Neuronen in narkotisierten und wachen Tieren angewandt werden. Wir beschreiben die Aufnahmetechnik und die elektrische Konfiguration für Nanostimulation. Während eine exakte zeitliche Bestimmung der AP nicht erreicht wurde, konnten Frequenz und Anzahl der AP parametrisch kontrolliert werden. Wir zeigen, dass Nanostimulation auch angewendet werden kann, um sensorische Reaktionen in identifizierbaren Neuronen selektiv zu inhibieren. Als nächstes haben wir untersucht wie sich die Frequenz und Anzahl der AP sowie die Regelmäßigkeit der Pulsfolge auf die Detektion von Einzelzell-Stimulationen im somatosensorischen Kortex von Ratten auswirken. Für mutmaßlichen erregende regular-spiking Neuronen erhöhte sich die Nachweisbarkeit mit abnehmender Frequenz und Anzahl der AP. Die Stimulation einzelner, mutmaßlichen inhibitorischer und schnell feuernder Neuronen führte zu wesentlich stärkeren sensorischen Effekten, die unabhängig von Frequenz und Anzahl der AP waren. Außerdem fanden wir heraus, dass Unregelmäßigkeiten der Pulsfolge die sensorischen Effekte von putativ erregenden Neuronen stark erhöhten. Diese Unregelmäßigkeiten wurden in durchschnittlich 8% der Durchgänge festgestellt. Unsere Daten deuten darauf hin, dass das es auf Verhaltnisebene eine große Sensivität für kortikale AP und deren zeitlichen Abfolge gibt.
The action potential (AP) activity of single cortical neurons can evoke measurable sensory effects, but it is not known how spiking parameters and specific neuronal subtypes affect the evoked sensations. Here we applied a reverse physiology approach to investigate the relationship between single neuron activity and sensation. First, we provide a detailed description of the procedures involved in nanostimulation, a single-cell stimulation method derived from the juxtacellular labeling technique. Nanostimulation is easy to apply and can be directed to a wide variety of identifiable neurons in anesthetized and awake animals. We describe the recording approach and the parameters of the electric configuration underlying nanostimulation. While exact AP timing has not been achieved, AP frequency and AP number can be parametrically controlled. We demonstrate that nanostimulation can also be used to selectively inhibit sensory responses in identifiable neurons. Next, we examined the effects of AP frequency, AP number and spike train regularity on the detectability of single-cell stimulation in rat somatosensory cortex. For putative excitatory, regular spiking neurons detectability increased with decreasing AP frequencies and decreasing AP numbers. Stimulation of single putative inhibitory, fast spiking neurons led to much larger sensory effects that were not dependent on AP frequency and AP number. In addition, we found that spike train irregularity greatly increased the sensory effects of putative excitatory neurons, with irregular spike trains being detected in on average 8% of trials. Our data suggest that the behaving animal is extremely sensitive to cortical APs and their temporal patterning.

Ratten verwenden Schnurrhaare (Vibrissen) zur Berührungswahrnehmung, und die Leitungsbahn von den Vibrissen zum primären somatosensorischen Areal (Barrel Cortex, BC) ist gut untersucht. Ratten zeigen auch vielfältiges Sozialverhalten, u.a. Berührung von Artgenossen mit ihren Vibrissen. Es ist jedoch unbekannt, wie diese sozialen Berührungssignale im Gehirn repräsentiert sind. Deshalb hatte die vorliegende Studie zum Ziel, die neuronale Repräsentation von sozialen Berührungen im BC zu untersuchen und mit anderer somatosensorischer Stimulation zu vergleichen. Mit extrazellulären Einzelzellableitungen in sich frei bewegenden Ratten habe ich gezeigt, dass die Aktivität eines Großteils von Neuronen im BC durch soziale Berührungen moduliert wird. Antworten waren meist erregend und Feuerraten während sozialer Interaktionen unterschieden sich zwischen kortikalen Schichten. Ratten bevorzugten Interaktionen mit Artgenossen gegenüber unbelebten Stimuli. Auch die Berührungsstrategien unterschieden sich, dabei wurden Objekte mit regelmäßigeren Bewegungen abgetastet, und die Vibrissen weiter vorgestreckt. Neuronale Antworten unterschieden sich ebenso, mit leicht aber konsistent schwächeren Antworten auf Objekte. Interessanterweise habe ich geschlechtsspezifische Unterschiede in neuronalen Antworten beobachtet. Der ausgeprägteste war die stärkere Modulation regulär-feuernder (RF) Zellen in Männchen während sozialer Berührungen. Dieser Unterschied konnte nicht mit sozialem Berührungsverhalten erklärt werden, was eventuell auf eine neurale Grundlage dieser Differenz hindeutet. Zudem feuerten RF-Zellen von Weibchen deutlich seltener, wenn das Weibchen im Östrus war. Zusammenfassend ist dies die erste Studie, die soziale Signale in einem primären sensorischen Areal bei sich frei bewegenden Tieren auf zellulärer Ebene untersuchte. Sie legt nahe, dass die Repräsentationen sensorischer Hirnrinde weniger stimulusabhängig und stärker top-down-moduliert sein könnten, als zuvor angenommen.
Rats use their stiff facial hairs (whiskers) for somatosensation, and the pathway from the whiskers to the primary somatosensory cortex (barrel cortex, BC) is well known. Rats also show diverse social behaviors, including touch of conspecifics with their whiskers. The representation of these social touch signals in the brain is however unknown. Thus, the present study aimed at characterizing the neuronal representation of social touch signals in BC and comparing them with non-social somatosensory stimulation. Using extracellular single-cell recordings in freely-moving rats, I could show that the activity of a large fraction of BC neurons is modulated by social touch. Responses were typically excitatory and the pattern of firing rates during interactions differed between cortical layers. Rats preferred interactions with alive conspecifics over inanimate stimuli. Whisking strategies also differed in that inanimate stimuli were whisked at with more regular movements from more protracted set angles. Neuronal responses were also different, such that objects elicited slightly but consistently weaker responses than alive rats. Interestingly, I observed sex-specific differences in neuronal responses. Prominently, there was stronger modulation by social touch in regular-spikers (RS) recorded from males. This could not be explained by behavioral measures, possibly indicating a neural origin of this difference. Further, RS from females fired much more weakly when females were in estrus. In summary, this is the first study that investigated social signals in a primary sensory area of freely-moving animals at the cellular level. It suggests that representations in sensory cortices might be less stimulus-driven and more top-down modulated than previously thought.

It is well established that, following adaptation, cells adjust their sensitivity to reflect the global stimulus conditions. Two recent studies in guinea pig inferior colliculus (IC, Dean, Harper & McAlpine 2005) and rat barrel cortex (Garcia-Lazaro, Ho, Nair & Schnupp 2007) found that neural stimulus-response functions were displaced laterally in a manner that was dependent on the mean adapting stimulus. However, the direction of gain change, following adaptation to variance, was in contradiction to Information Theory, which predicts a decrease in gain with increased stimulus variance. On further analysis of the experimental data, presented within this thesis, it was revealed that the adaptive gain changes to global stimulus variance were, in fact, in the direction predicted by Information Theory. However, following adaptation to global mean amplitude, neural threshold was displaced to centre the SRF on inputs that were located on the edge of the stimulus distribution. It was found that adaptation scaled neural output such that the relationship between firing rate and local, as opposed to global, differences in stimulus amplitude was maintained; with the majority of cells responding to large differences in stimulus amplitude, on the 40ms scale. A small majority of cells responded to step-size differences, in amplitude, of either direction and were classed as novelty preferring. Adaptation to global mean was replicated in model neuron with spike-rate adaptation and tonic inhibition, which increased with stimulus mean. Adaptation to stimulus variance was replicated in three models 1: By increasing, in proportion to stimulus variance, background, excitatory and inhibitory firing rates in a balanced manner (Chance, Abbott & Reyes 2002), 2: A model of asymmetric synaptic depression (Chelaru & Dragoi 2008) and 3: a model combining non-linear input with synaptic depression. The results presented, within this thesis, demonstrate that neurons change their coding strategies depending upon the global levels of mean and variance within the sensory input. Under low noise conditions, neurons act as deviation detectors, i.e. are primed to respond to large changes in the stimulus on the tens of millisecond; however, under conditions of increased noise switch their encoding strategy in order to compute the full range of the stimulus distribution through adjusting neural gain.

Chez les rongeurs, le traitement par le cortex à tonneaux de l'information sensorielle en provenance des vibrisses est mal compris. En effet, malgré l'aide fournie par l'organisation de ce cortex en une reproduction stricte de la topographie de l'appareil sensoriel, il a été difficile jusqu'à présent d'identifier de façon indiscutable le système de filtrage linéaire et non-linéaire qu'utilisent les neurones du cortex à tonneaux durant leur traitement des scènes tactiles auxquelles ils sont exposés. Pour mieux identifier ces traitements corticaux, nous avons développé un système de stimulation vibrissale permettant d'appliquer des déflections sur un grand nombre de vibrisses indépendamment, dans toutes les directions possibles et ce à travers une vaste gamme fréquentielle. En utilisant ce dispositif de stimulation multivibrissale durant des enregistrements extracellulaires de l'activité électrique des neurones du cortex à tonneaux de rats anesthésiés, nous avons pu identifier plus précisément le filtrage linéaire des stimulations vibrissales, qui s'avère similaire pour tous les neurones que nous avons pu enregistrer. Par ailleurs, en explorant les aspects non-linéaires du traitement effectué par ces neurones, nous avons noté qu'ils se séparent en deux familles distinctes : d'un côté des neurones "locaux" qui se sont avérés sensibles à des contrastes locaux dans les déflections multivibrissales. De l'autre, des neurones "globaux" capables au contraire de détecter des situations où les déflections sont similaires pour de nombreuses vibrisses. Enfin, en effectuant d'autres enregistrements dans la couche II/III du cortex à tonneaux, cette fois à l'aide d'un microscope deux-photons, nous avons pu noter que les neurones appartenant aux familles locales et globales étaient séparés en groupes spatialement distincts et que la position spatiale des neurones était plus généralement étroitement liée à l'ensemble de leurs propriétés de filtrage des déflections vibrissales.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2005.
Title from first page of PDF file (viewed January 11, 2006). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic summary Annual inflation continued to rise in the first quarter (8.5%) and again outpaced both market expectations and the technical staff’s projections. Inflation in major consumer price index (CPI) baskets has accelerated year-to-date, rising in March at an annual rate above 3%. Food prices (25.4%) continued to contribute most to rising inflation, mainly affected by a deterioration in external supply and rising costs of agricultural inputs. Increases in transportation prices and in some utility rates (energy and gas) can explain the acceleration in regulated items prices (8.3%). For its part, the increase in inflation excluding food and regulated items (4.5%) would be the result of shocks in supply and external costs that have been more persistent than expected, the effects of indexation, accumulated inflationary pressures from the exchange rate, and a faster-than-anticipated tightening of excess productive capacity. Within the basket excluding food and regulated items, external inflationary pressures have meaningfully impacted on goods prices (6.4%), which have been accelerating since the last quarter of 2021. Annual growth in services prices (3.8%) above the target rate is due primarily to food away from home (14.1%), which was affected by significant increases in food and utilities prices and by a rise in the legal monthly minimum wage. Housing rentals and other services prices also increased, though at rates below 3%. Forecast and expected inflation have increased and remain above the target rate, partly due to external pressures (prices and costs) that have been more persistent than projected in the January report (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accentuated inflationary pressures, particularly on international prices for certain agricultural goods and inputs, energy, and oil. The current inflation projection assumes international food prices will increase through the middle of this year, then remain high and relatively stable for the remainder of 2022. Recovery in the perishable food supply is forecast to be less dynamic than previously anticipated due to high agricultural input prices. Oil prices should begin to recede starting in the second half of the year, but from higher levels than those presented in the previous report. Given the above, higher forecast inflation could accentuate indexation effects and increase inflation expectations. The reversion of a rebate on value-added tax (VAT) applied to cleaning and hygiene products, alongside the end of Colombia’s COVID-19 health emergency, could increase the prices of those goods. The elimination of excess productive capacity on the forecast horizon, with an output gap close to zero and somewhat higher than projected in January, is another factor to consider. As a consequence, annual inflation is expected to remain at high levels through June. Inflation should then decline, though at a slower pace than projected in the previous report. The adjustment process of the monetary policy rate wouldcontribute to pushing inflation and its expectations toward the target on the forecast horizon. Year-end inflation for 2022 is expected to be around 7.1%, declining to 4.8% in 2023. Economic activity again outperformed expectations. The technical staff’s growth forecast for 2022 has been revised upward from 4.3% to 5% (Graph 1.3). Output increased more than expected in annual terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 (10.7%), driven by domestic demand that came primarily because of private consumption above pre-pandemic levels. Investment also registered a significant recovery without returning to 2019 levels and with mixed performance by component. The trade deficit increased, with significant growth in imports similar to that for exports. The economic tracking indicator (ISE) for January and February suggested that firstquarter output would be higher than previously expected and that the positive demand shock observed at the end of 2021 could be fading slower than anticipated. Imports in consumer goods, retail sales figures, real restaurant and hotel income, and credit card purchases suggest that household spending continues to be dynamic, with levels similar to those registered at the end of 2021. Project launch and housing starts figures and capital goods import data suggest that investment also continues to recover but would remain below pre-pandemic levels. Consumption growth is expected to decelerate over the year from high levels reached over the last two quarters. This would come amid tighter domestic and external financial conditions, the exhaustion of suppressed demand, and a deterioration of available household income due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue to recover, while the trade deficit should tighten alongside high oil and other export commodity prices. Given all of the above, first-quarter economic growth is now expected to be 7.2% (previously 5.2%) and 5.0% for 2022 as a whole (previously 4.3%). Output growth would continue to moderate in 2023 (2.9%, previously 3.1%), converging similar to long-term rates. The technical staff’s revised projections suggest that the output gap would remain at levels close to zero on the forecast horizon but be tighter than forecast in January (Graph 1.4). These estimates continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions, external financial conditions, Colombia’s electoral cycle, and the COVID-19 pandemic. External demand is now projected to grow at a slower pace than previously expected amid increased global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, and tighter international financial conditions than forecast in January. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its inflationary effects on prices for oil and certain agricultural goods and inputs accentuated existing global inflationary pressures originating in supply restrictions and increased international costs. A decline in the supply of Russian oil, low inventory levels, and continued production limits on behalf of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) can explain increased projected oil prices for 2022 (USD 100.8/barrel, previously USD 75.3) and 2023 (USD 86.8/barrel, previously USD 71.2). The forecast trajectory for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate has increased for this and next year to reflect higher real and expected inflation and positive performance in the labormarket and economic activity. The normalization of monetary policy in various developed and emerging market economies, more persistent supply and cost shocks, and outbreaks of COVID-19 in some Asian countries contributed to a reduction in the average growth outlook for Colombia’s trade partners for 2022 (2.8%, previously 3.3%) and 2023 (2.4%, previously 2.6%). In this context, the projected path for Colombia’s risk premium increased, partly due to increased geopolitical global tensions, less expansionary monetary policy in the United States, an increase in perceived risk for emerging markets, and domestic factors such as accumulated macroeconomic imbalances and political uncertainty. Given all the above, external financial conditions are tighter than projected in January report. External forecasts and their impact on Colombia’s macroeconomic scenario continue to be affected by considerable uncertainty, given the unpredictability of both the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the pandemic. The current macroeconomic scenario, characterized by high real inflation levels, forecast and expected inflation above 3%, and an output gap close to zero, suggests an increased risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. This scenario offers very limited space for expansionary monetary policy. Domestic demand has been more dynamic than projected in the January report and excess productive capacity would have tightened more quickly than anticipated. Headline and core inflation rose above expectations, reflecting more persistent and important external shocks on supply and costs. The Russian invasion of Ukraine accentuated supply restrictions and pressures on international costs. This partly explains the increase in the inflation forecast trajectory to levels above the target in the next two years. Inflation expectations increased again and are above 3%. All of this increased the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored and could generate indexation effects that move inflation still further from the target rate. This macroeconomic context also implies reduced space for expansionary monetary policy. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) continues to adjust its monetary policy. In its meetings both in March and April of 2022, it decided by majority to increase the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 6.0% (Graph 1.5).