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1
Marshall, Lucy Amanda Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty of Engineering UNSW. "Bayesian analysis of rainfall-runoff models: insights to parameter estimation, model comparison and hierarchical model development." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/32268.
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One challenge that faces hydrologists in water resources planning is to predict the catchment???s response to a given rainfall. Estimation of parameter uncertainty (and model uncertainty) allows assessment of the risk in likely applications of hydrological models. Bayesian statistical inference, with computations carried out via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, offers an attractive approach to model specification, allowing for the combination of any pre-existing knowledge about individual models and their respective parameters with the available catchment data to assess both parameter and model uncertainty. This thesis develops and applies Bayesian statistical tools for parameter estimation, comparison of model performance and hierarchical model aggregation. The work presented has three main sections. The first area of research compares four MCMC algorithms for simplicity, ease of use, efficiency and speed of implementation in the context of conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling. Included is an adaptive Metropolis algorithm that has characteristics that are well suited to hydrological applications. The utility of the proposed adaptive algorithm is further expanded by the second area of research in which a probabilistic regime for comparing selected models is developed and applied. The final area of research introduces a methodology for hydrologic model aggregation that is flexible and dynamic. Rigidity in the model structure limits representation of the variability in the flow generation mechanism, which becomes a limitation when the flow processes are not clearly understood. The proposed Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts (HME) model architecture is designed to do away with this limitation by selecting individual models probabilistically based on predefined catchment indicators. In addition, the approach allows a more flexible specification of the model error to better assess the risk of likely outcomes based on the model simulations. Application of the approach to lumped and distributed rainfall runoff models for a variety of catchments shows that by assessing different catchment predictors the method can be a useful tool for prediction of catchment response.
2
Hundecha, Hirpa Yeshewatesfa. "Regionalization of parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model." Stuttgart : Inst. für Wasserbau, 2005. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?idn=975655469.
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Fionda, Alexander Peter Anthony. "Rainfall-runoff model application in ungauged catchments in Scotland." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-162181.
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The conceptual rainfall-runoff model Hysim is used to estimate the flow in ungauged catchments in Scotland by Scottish Water. However, there are non-quantified uncertainties associated with the outcomes of the modelling strategy used. In order to identify and quantify these uncertainties it was necessary to use the framework of proxy-basin validation in order to evaluate the performance of different modelling strategies. The proxy-basin validation test requires hydrologically analogous catchments for the evaluation of models, a Region Of Influence regionalisation method was used in order group selected catchments by Q95(%MF). Four groups of four catchments were established, which covered Q95(%MF) 5-7%, 7-9%, 9-11% and 11-13%. The allocation of “donor catchment” and “target catchment” for each Q95(%MF) group was accomplished through discussion with Scottish Water with respect to existing Scottish Water modelled catchments. A single donor catchment and three target catchments were therefore indicated for each group. Two modelling strategies were developed by the study; the first full transposition method used the entire optimised parameter-set from the donor catchment with the exception of the target catchment’s “catchment area” parameter. The second partial transposition method used the entire optimal parameter-set with the exception of the target catchment’s “interception storage”, “time to peak”, “rooting depth” and “catchment area” parameters. It was found that the full transposition method had the least uncertainty associated its use for flow estimation when the parameter-set was derived from a donor catchment calibration that was excellent. Contrarily, it was found that the partial transposition model method had the least uncertainty associated with flow estimation for parameter-sets that were derived from a relatively poor donor catchment calibration. Encouraged by this testing framework, this study has suggested the use of catalogue of donor parameter-sets that can be used to estimate flow for catchments that are hydrologically similar. This strategy of hydrological modelling has been recommended to improve existing Scottish Water Hysim methodology.
4
Hundecha, Hirpa Yeshewatesfa. "Regionalization of parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model." Stuttgart Inst. für Wasserbau, 2004. http://deposit.d-nb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?idn=975655469.
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Ndiritu, John G. "An improved genetic algorithm for rainfall-runoff model calibration /." Title page, contents and abstract only, 1998. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09phn337.pdf.
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Tecle, Aregai, Paul Heinrich, John Leeper, and Jolene Tallsalt-Robertson. "Rainfall-Runoff Model for Black Creek Watershed, Navajo Nation." Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/301297.
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From the Proceedings of the 2012 Meetings of the Hydrology Section - Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science - April 14,2012, Glendale Community College, Glendale, ArizonaThis paper develops a rainfall-runoff model for estimating surface and peak flow rates from precipitation storm events on the Black Creek watershed in the Navajo Nation. The Black Creek watershed lies in the southern part of the Navajo Nation between the Defiance Plateau on the west and the Chuska Mountains on the east. The area is in the semiarid part of the Colorado Plateau on which there is about 10 inches of precipitation a year. We have two main purposes for embarking on the study. One is to determine the amount of runoff and peak flow rate generated from rainfall storm events falling on the 655 square mile watershed and the second is to provide the Navajo Nation with a method for estimating water yield and peak flow in the absence of adequate data. Two models, Watershed Modeling System (WMS) and the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) Hydrological Modeling System (HMS) that have Geographic Information System (GIS) capabilities are used to generate stream hydrographs. The latter show peak flow rates and total amounts of stream flows produced from rainfall storm events. Two 24-hour rainfall amounts, 1.1 inches and 0.6 inches, are imputed into the WMS and HEC HMS modeling system and evaluated to produce 1770 cfs and 3.9 cfs of peak flows and 1106.5 acre feet and 2.7 acre feet of total flow volumes, respectively. Even though the first one seems to be a little high compared to historical peak flows from the watershed, the outcomes seem to be quite appropriate for the study area when compared with gauging site flows at other times as well as with flows from well-instrumented nearby watersheds.
7
Smith, Paul James. "Probabilistic flood forecasting using a distributed rainfall-runoff model." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/143966.
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Kyoto University (京都大学)0048
新制・課程博士
博士(工学)
甲第12267号
工博第2596号
新制||工||1366(附属図書館)
24103
UT51-2006-J260
京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻
(主査)教授 小尻 利治, 教授 池淵 周一, 教授 中北 英一
学位規則第4条第1項該当
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Palanisamy, Bakkiyalakshmi. "Evaluation of SWAT model - subdaily runoff prediction in Texas watersheds." Texas A&M University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/5921.
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Spatial variability of rainfall is a significant factor in hydrologic and water
quality modeling. In recent years, characterizing and analyzing the effect of spatial
variability of rainfall in hydrologic applications has become vital with the advent of
remotely sensed precipitation estimates that have high spatial resolution. In this study,
the effect of spatial variability of rainfall in hourly runoff generation was analyzed using
the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for Big Sandy Creek and Walnut Creek
Watersheds in North Central Texas. The area of the study catchments was 808 km2 and
196 km2 for Big Sandy Creek and Walnut Creek Watersheds respectively. Hourly
rainfall measurements obtained from raingauges and weather radars were used to
estimate runoff for the years 1999 to 2003. Results from the study indicated that
generated runoff from SWAT showed enormous volume bias when compared against
observed runoff. The magnitude of bias increased as the area of the watershed increased
and the spatial variability of rainfall diminished. Regardless of high spatial variability,
rainfall estimates from weather radars resulted in increased volume of simulated runoff.
Therefore, weather radar estimates were corrected for various systematic, range-dependent
biases using three different interpolation methods: Inverse Distance
Weighting (IDW), Spline, and Thiessen polygon. Runoff simulated using these bias adjusted radar rainfall estimates showed less volume bias compared to simulations using
uncorrected radar rainfall. In addition to spatial variability of rainfall, SWAT model
structures, such as overland flow, groundwater flow routing, and hourly
evapotranspiration distribution, played vital roles in the accuracy of simulated runoff.
9
Goodrich, David Charles. "Basin Scale and Runoff Model Complexity." Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/614028.
Full textAbstract:
Distributed Rainfall-Runoff models are gaining widespread acceptance; yet, a
fundamental issue that must be addressed by all users of these models is definition
of an acceptable level of watershed discretization (geometric model complexity). The
level of geometric model complexity is a function of basin and climatic scales as well
as the availability of input and verification data. Equilibrium discharge storage is
employed to develop a quantitative methodology to define a level of geometric model
complexity commensurate with a specified level of model performance. Equilibrium
storage ratios are used to define the transition from overland to channel -dominated
flow response. The methodology is tested on four subcatchments in the USDA -ARS
Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in Southeastern Arizona. The catchments
cover a range of basins scales of over three orders of magnitude. This enabled a
unique assessment of watershed response behavior as a function of basin scale.
High quality, distributed, rainfall -runoff data was used to verify the model (KINEROSR). Excellent calibration and verification results provided confidence in
subsequent model interpretations regarding watershed response behavior. An
average elementary channel support area of roughly 15% of the total basin area is
shown to provide a watershed discretization level that maintains model performance
for basins ranging in size from 1.5 to 631 hectares. Detailed examination of
infiltration, including the role and impacts of incorporating small scale infiltration
variability in a distribution sense, into KINEROSR, over a range of soils and
climatic scales was also addressed. The impacts of infiltration and channel losses
on runoff response increase with increasing watershed scale as the relative influence
of storms is diminished in a semiarid environment such as Walnut Gulch. In this
semiarid environment, characterized by ephemeral streams, watershed runoff
response does not become more linear with increasing watershed scale but appears
to become more nonlinear.
10
Young, Andrew Richard. "Regionalising a daily rainfall runoff model within the United Kingdom." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.340664.
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Reed, Seann Mischa. "Use of digital soil maps in a rainfall-runoff model /." Digital version accessible at:, 1998. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/main.
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Sumner, Neil R. "Calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model using simulated annealing." Thesis, Edith Cowan University, Research Online, Perth, Western Australia, 1995. https://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses/1169.
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Simulated annealing (Kirkpatrick et al, 1983) is used to estimate the parameters of a mathematical model that predicts the water yield from a catchment. The calibration problem involves finding the global minimum of a multivariate function that has many extraneous local minima, a situation in which conventional optimisation methods are ineffective. The objective function which quantifies discrepancies between the computed and observed streamflows must be carefully selected to satisfy the least square assumptions. Several published simulated annealing algorithms have been implemented, tested and evaluated using standard test functions. Appropriate cooling schedules are found for each algorithm and test function investigated. The number of function evaluations required to find the minimum is compared to published results for the test functions using either simulated annealing and other global optimisation methods. A new simulated annealing algorithm based on the Hooke and Jeeves (1961) pattern search method is developed and compared with existing algorithms from the literature.
13
Sulistiyono, Heri. "Rainfall-runoff model calibration using experimental designs and response surface methodology." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape8/PQDD_0001/MQ42452.pdf.
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Zhang, Yanlong. "Calibration of physically-based distributed rainfall-runoff model with radar data." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/37760.
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Kapangaziwiri, Evison. "Revised parameter estimation methods for the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006172.
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In recent years, increased demands have been placed on hydrologists to find the most effective methods of making predictions of hydrologic variables in ungauged basins. A huge part of the southern African region is ungauged and, in gauged basins, the extent to which observed flows represent natural flows is unknown, given unquantified upstream activities. The need to exploit water resources for social and economic development, considered in the light of water scarcity forecasts for the region, makes the reliable quantification of water resources a priority. Contemporary approaches to the problem of hydrological prediction in ungauged basins in the region have relied heavily on calibration against a limited gauged streamflow database and somewhat subjective parameter regionalizations using areas of assumed hydrological similarity. The reliance of these approaches on limited historical records, often of dubious quality, introduces uncertainty in water resources decisions. Thus, it is necessary to develop methods of estimating model parameters that are less reliant on calibration. This thesis addresses the question of whether physical basin properties and the role they play in runoff generation processes can be used directly in the estimation of parameter values of the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model. A physically-based approach to estimating the soil moisture accounting and runoff parameters of a conceptual, monthly time-step rainfall-runoff model is proposed. The study investigates the physical meaning of the model parameters, establishes linkages between parameter values and basin physical properties and develops relationships and equations for estimating the parameters taking into account the spatial and temporal scales used in typical model applications. The estimationmethods are then tested in selected gauged basins in southern Africa and the results of model simulations evaluated against historical observed flows. The results of 71 basins chosen from the southern African region suggest that it is possible to directly estimate hydrologically relevant parameters for the Pitman model from physical basin attributes. For South Africa, the statistical and visual fit of the simulations using the revised parameters were at least as good as the current regional sets, albeit the parameter sets being different. In the other countries where no regionalized parameter sets currently exist, simulations were equally good. The availability, within the southern African region, of the appropriate physical basin data and the disparities in the spatial scales and the levels of detail of the data currently available were identified as potential sources of uncertainty. GIS and remote sensing technologies and a widespread use of this revised approach are expected to facilitate access to these data.
16
Luckemeier, Richard Ewald 1948. "A rainfall-runoff model for an urban watershed in Tucson, Arizona." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/277165.
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The U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Tucson, Arizona, have been collecting rainfall and runoff data on several watersheds in the Tucson area for several years. Among the purposes of this project is to use the data to test rainfall-runoff models in an effort to find one to successfully simulate flood flows in Tucson. One such model, the Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model (DR3M), was tested using data collected on Rob Wash in Tucson. It was found DR3M performs about as well as it does in other parts of the United States, although it tends to underestimate flood flows for large storms and overestimate flows for smaller storms. Unique features with regard to the hydrology of urban Tucson require special attention when using DR3M; these features are associated with the nature of dry washes and summer rainfall in Tucson. Experience indicates DR3M is not truly a deterministic model.
17
Karnieli, Arnon 1952. "Storm runoff forecasting model incorporating spatial data." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191138.
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This study is concerned with design forecasting of storm hydrographs with emphasis on runoff volume and peak discharge. The objective of the study was to develop, calibrate and test a method for forecasting storm runoff from small semi-arid watersheds using an available prediction model. In order to turn the selected prediction model into a forecasting model an objective procedure in terms of an API-type model was developed for evaluating the soil moisture deficit in the upper soil layer at the beginning of each storm. Distinction was made between the physically-based parameters and the other fitting parameters. The rainfall excess calculation was computed by solving the Green and Ampt equation for unsteady rainfall conditions using the physically-based parameters. For the physically-based parameters a geographic information system was developed in order to account for the variability in time and space of the input data and the watershed characteristics and to coregister parameters on a common basis. The fitting parameters were used to calibrate the model on one subwatershed in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed while the physically-based parameters remained constant. Two objective functions were selected for the optimization procedure. These functions expressed the goodness of fit between the calculated hydrograph volume and peak discharge and the observed volume and peak discharge. Linear relationships between the effective matric potential parameter and the two objective functions obtained from the sensitivity analyses made it possible to develop a bilinear interpolation algorithm to minimize, simultaneously, the difference between the calculated and observed volume and peak discharge. The prediction mode of the model was tested both on different storm events on the same subwatershed and on another subwatershed with satisfactory results. In the prediction mode the effective matric potential parameter was allowed to vary from storm to storm, however, in the forecasting mode these values were obtained from the API model. Relatively poor results were obtained in testing the forecasting mode on another subwatershed. These errors were able to be corrected by changing the channel losses fitting parameters.
18
El-Hames, A. S. "A physically-based model for the prediction of flood hydrographs in arid zone catchments." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.306990.
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Alam, Abul Hasan Mohammad Badiul. "Development of distributed rainfall-runoff model with soil moisture model and its parameter identification." Kyoto University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/136523.
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Kyoto University (京都大学)0048
新制・課程博士
博士(農学)
甲第13104号
農博第1609号
新制||農||940(附属図書館)
学位論文||H19||N4230(農学部図書室)
UT51-2007-H377
京都大学大学院農学研究科地域環境科学専攻
(主査)教授 河地 利彦, 教授 三野 徹, 教授 谷 誠
学位規則第4条第1項該当
20
Hairsine, Peter Brian, and n/a. "A Physically Based Model of the Erosion of Cohesive Soils." Griffith University. Division of Australian Environmental Studies, 1988. http://www4.gu.edu.au:8080/adt-root/public/adt-QGU20050826.114613.
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A new model of the erosion by water of cohesive soils is developed using physical principles. The theoretical framework which is developed recognises the changing nature of the eroding surface of a soil. Raindrop impact and overland flow are considered to act upon a soil surface so removing soil from the cohesive original (or parent) soil. Once this soil enters the overland flow, either as aggregates or primary particles, it is considered to return to the soil bed, from which it may be re-removed. The development of a deposited layer makes it necessary to distinguish between processes removing sediment from the original soil and those processes removing the deposited layer. This layer, being formed by the relatively gentle action of deposition during the current erosion event, is presumed cohesionless. The physical properties of the original soil and the deposited layer are considered to be very different. The development of two experimental apparatus, a rainfall/runoff simulator and a settling tube for the measurement of aggregate settling velocities, is first described. Experimental investigations, using these apparatus, and field observations to inform the description of the erosion and deposition processes, are then presented. The processes by which rainfall impact removes sediment from the original soil and the deposited layer are termed rainfall detachment and rainfall re-detachment respectively. Initially, descriptions of these processes in the presence of deposition, are combined in a model describing net rainfall detachment when removal of sediment from the flow bed by overland flow is not occurring. The developriient of the deposited layer is considered both quantitatively and qualitatively. The solution of the equation describing mass conservation is then given for the equilibrium situation when the mass of the deposited layer, and therefore the sediment concentration, is constant with respect to time. The processes by which overland flow removes sediment from the original soil and the deposited layer are termed entrainment and re-entrainment. The work done by the process of entrainment is considered to be done wholly against the cohesive strength of the original soil. In contrast to the process of entrainment, the work done in re-entraining sediment from the deposited layer is considered only to be done against gravity. The resulting description of these processes is then combined with the previous descriptions of rainfall detachment, rainfall re-detachment and deposition and with the equation describing the conservation of mass of sediment within any arbitary number of size (or settling velocity) classes. A plane geometry model Is developed in which the surface water flow is considered to be uniformily distributed across a plane slope on which all processes act. When the mass of the deposited layer is steady, two possible forms of equilibrium are shown to exist. When the coverage of the original soil by deposited layer is partial, the sediment concentration is limited by the removal of the cohesive original soil by entrainment and rainfall detachment, in the presence of deposition. This situation is termed 'source limiting' and is shown to provide a lower limit to sediment concentration. When the coverage of the deposited layer is complete so that entrainment and rainfall detachment of the original soil are considered not to occur, then the ability of the erosive agents to re-entrain and re-detach sediment in the presence of deposition limits sediment concentration. This situation, termed 'transport limiting', is shown to provide a practical upper limit to sediment concentration. This plane geometry flow model is followed by a revised model in which all processes are considered to occur but the flow of water on a plane surface is modified by the formation of rills. In this 'detailed geometry model' the spatial distribution of the erosive agents is shown to have a marked influence on the resulting processes and sediment concentrations. A potential description of the sediment transport across a change in land slope is also developed. Finally, a discussion of this new modelling approach is presented in which the conceptual developments of this thesis are considered and future developments are suggested. This discussion also includes a comparison of the outcomes of this new work with similar erosion models.
21
Rybarczyk, Scott Michael 1974. "Formulation and testing of a distributed triangular irregular network rainfall/runoff model." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/37045.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2000.Includes bibliographical references (p. 178-186).
In this thesis, a new distributed, continuous simulation model is developed for flood forecasting. This new model, tRIBS (triangulated Real-Time Interactive Basin Simulator), is created by integrating two models previously developed. A landscape evolution model, CHILD, is used to create the triangular irregular network (TIN) of tRIBS while the original RIBS model is used to provide runoff and saturated/unsaturated groundwater dynamics in the system. These two base models of tRIBS are described and the modifications to CHILD and RIBS are presented. The CHILD model is modified to accept time varying distributed inputs and a saturated zone groundwater flow routine is created. The RIBS model is modified to allow for continuous simulation and capillary suction. This thesis also develops the datasets needed for the tRIBS model. Starting from Digital Elevation Models, watersheds are delineated and then manipulated using geographic information systems to form a TIN. Algorithms to create distributed rainfall inputs and stream channels are also developed for use in the tRIBS model. With the model and dataset completed, the model is successfully tested and calibrated to the Peacheater Creek watershed. Results are very promising.
by Scott Michael Rybarczyk.
S.M.
22
Bradley, Curtis M. "Effects of soil data resolution on modeling results using physically based rainfall-runoff model." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 2003. http://etd.library.arizona.edu/etd/GetFileServlet?file=file:///data1/pdf/etd/azu_etd_hy0033_m_sip1_w.pdf&type=application/pdf.
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Shbaita, Haytham [Verfasser], and Günter [Akademischer Betreuer] Meon. "Interaction between Input and Model Uncertainty for Distributed Rainfall-Runoff-Models / Haytham Shbaita ; Betreuer: Günter Meon." Braunschweig : Technische Universität Braunschweig, 2010. http://d-nb.info/1175825794/34.
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Kapangaziwiri, Evison. "Regional application of the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model in Southern Africa incorporating uncertainty." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006178.
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Climate change and a growing demand for freshwater resources due to population increases and socio-economic changes will make water a limiting factor (in terms of both quantity and quality) in development. The need for reliable quantitative estimates of water availability cannot be over-emphasised. However, there is frequently a paucity of the data required for this quantification as many basins, especially in the developing world, are inadequately equipped with monitoring networks. Existing networks are also shrinking due mainly to shortages in human and financial resources. Over the past few decades mathematical models have been used to bridge the data gap by generating datasets for use in management and policy making. In southern Africa, the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model has enjoyed relatively popular use as a water resources estimation tool. However, it is acknowledged that models are abstractions of reality and the data used to drive them is imperfect, making the model outputs uncertain. While there is acknowledgement of the limitations of modelled data in the southern African region among water practitioners, there has been little effort to explicitly quantify and account for this uncertainty in water resources estimation tools and explore how it affects the decision making process. Uncertainty manifests itself in three major areas of the modelling chain; the input data used to force the model, the parameter estimation process and the model structural errors. A previous study concluded that the parameter estimation process for the Pitman model contributed more to the global uncertainty of the model than other sources. While the literature abounds with uncertainty estimation techniques, many of these are dependent on observations and are therefore unlikely to be easily applicable to the southern African region where there is an acute shortage of such data. This study focuses on two aspects of making hydrologic predictions in ungauged basins. Firstly, the study advocates the development of an a priori parameter estimation process for the Pitman model and secondly, uses indices of hydrological functional behaviour to condition and reduce predictive uncertainty in both gauged and ungauged basins. In this approach all the basins are treated as ungauged, while the historical records in the gauged basins are used to develop regional indices of expected hydrological behaviour and assess the applicability of these methods. Incorporating uncertainty into the hydrologic estimation tools used in southern Africa entails rethinking the way the uncertain results can be used in further analysis and how they will be interpreted by stakeholders. An uncertainty framework is proposed. The framework is made up of a number of components related to the estimation of the prior distribution of the parameters, used to generate output ensembles which are then assessed and constrained using regionalised indices of basin behavioural responses. This is premised on such indices being based on the best available knowledge covering different regions. This framework is flexible enough to be used with any model structure to ensure consistent and comparable results. While the aim is to eventually apply the uncertainty framework in the southern African region, this study reports on the preliminary work on the development and testing of the framework components based on South African basins. This is necessitated by the variations in the availability and quality of the data across the region. Uncertainty in the parameter estimation process was incorporated by assuming uncertainty in the physical and hydro-meteorological data used to directly quantify the parameter. This uncertainty was represented by the range of variability of these basin characteristics and probability distribution functions were developed to account for this uncertainty and propagate it through the estimation process to generate posterior distributions for the parameters. The results show that the framework has a great deal of potential but can still be improved. In general, the estimated uncertain parameters managed to produce hydrologically realistic model outputs capturing the expected regimes across the different hydro-climatic and geo-physical gradients examined. The regional relationships for the three indices developed and tested in this study were in general agreement with existing knowledge and managed to successfully provide a multi-criteria conditioning of the model output ensembles. The feedback loop included in the framework enabled a systematic re-examination of the estimation procedures for both the parameters and the indices when inconsistencies in the results were identified. This improved results. However, there is need to carefully examine the issues and problems that may arise within other basins outside South Africa and develop guidelines for the use of the framework.iText 1.4.6 (by lowagie.com)
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Goodrich, David Charles. "Geometric simplification of a distributed rainfall-runoff model over a range of basin scales." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/185051.
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Distributed rainfall-runoff models are gaining widespread acceptance; yet, a fundamental issue that must be addressed by all users of these models is definition of an acceptable level of watershed discretization (geometric model complexity). The level of geometric model complexity is a function of basin and climatic scales as well as the availability of input and verification data. Equilibrium discharge storage is employed to develop a quantitative methodology to define a level of geometric model complexity commensurate with a specified level of model performance. Equilibrium storage ratios are used to define the transition from overland to channel-dominated flow response. The methodology is tested on four subcatchments in the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in southeastern Arizona. The catchments cover a range of basins scales of over three orders of magnitude. This enabled a unique assessment of watershed response behavior as a function of basin scale. High quality, distributed, rainfall-runoff data were used to verify the model (KINEROSR). Excellent calibration and verification results provided confidence in subsequent model interpretations regarding watershed response behavior. An average elementary channel support area of roughly 15% of the total basin area is shown to provide a watershed discretization level that maintains model performance for basins ranging in size from 1.5 to 631 hectares. Detailed examination of infiltration, including the role and impacts of incorporating small-scale infiltration variability in a distribution sense, into KINEROSR, over a range of soils and climatic scales was also addressed. The impacts of infiltration and channel losses on runoff response increase with increasing watershed scale as the relative influence of storms is diminished in a semi-arid environment such as Walnut Gulch. In this semi-arid environment, characterized by ephemeral streams, watershed runoff response does not become more linear with increasing watershed scale but appears to become more nonlinear.
26
Levick, Lainie Robin. "Prediction of Rainfall and Snowmelt Produced Runoff : Linking a Hydrologic Model with Remote Sensing and GIS." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1998. http://etd.library.arizona.edu/etd/GetFileServlet?file=file:///data1/pdf/etd/azu_e9791_1998_36_sip1_w.pdf&type=application/pdf.
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Alavimoghaddam, Mohammadreza. "Assessing the ability of HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model to simulate stream flow across Sweden." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-143345.
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Computer modeling is the powerful tool for simulating nature’s behavior; however, still more efforts are need for reaching perfect simulation with computer models (especially in the hydrological field of study). In this Master’s thesis, the accuracy of the HEC-HMS computer model for long term rainfall-runoff simulation was evaluated across Sweden. Five different catchments from north to south of Sweden were selected and then simulation have done for 34 years of available data. Simulation was conducted using daily, monthly and yearly time scale resolutions. Results from the north to the south of Sweden were completely different. Simulated runoff and observed runoff in northern catchments followed the same pattern over different time scales but in the southern part of Sweden the results had different patterns in space and time. The best results with HEC-HMS were found in the northern catchments with steep main river slopes. In the southern catchments the model could not predict runoff in any realistic manner at any time and space scale. In total the HEC-HMS model cannot simulate the rainfall runoff for long periods of simulation across Sweden. This is especially true in southern parts of the country dominate with low elevation catchments. However, with regards to its ability for event-based simulation HEC-HMS could be a suitable tool to simulate flood event discharges that are needed for road or other hydraulic structures designs. But, this would require significant amounts of calibration and model development.
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Grini, Nicolò. "Real time flood forecasting for the Reno River (Italy) through the TOPKAPI rainfall-runoff model." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/17710/.
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Floods are the most frequent catastrophic events worldwide in both urban and rural areas, with serious risks for people and their activities. Particular attention needs to be paid to the characteristics of torrential flood events, including their sudden appearance, destructivity, short duration and seasonal character. The forecast and simulation of torrential floods are essential for early flood warnings and planning of mitigation and management actions. The thesis applies the fully distributed physically based rainfall-runoff model TOPKAPI to the Reno catchment (northern Italy) with a focus on the Upper Reno basin for the sake of predicting floods with a technically useful lead time. The study discusses the reliability of the model in real-time forecasting applications comparing the results with observed data within the period 2008-2013.
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Faurés, Jean-Marc 1961. "Sensitivity of runoff to small scale spatial variability of observed rainfall in a distributed model." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/192050.
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The spatial variability of rainfall is known to play an important role in the process of surface runoff generation. Yet, the typical assumption of uniform rainfall is still applied in modeling the hydrological behavior of small watersheds. To investigate the validity of this assumption, an experiment was conducted in a small catchment (4.4 ha) in a semi-arid environment. The distributed model KINEROS was used to assess the sensitivity of predicted runoff to rainfall variability. Uncertainties in estimating rainfall input were shown to have three major components: measurement errors, spatial variability of the rainfall field, and wind. Their relative importance is a function of the catchment scale, topography and physical properties of the storms. Computation of runoff based on the data from a unique raingage entails a high degree of uncertainty. Even at small scales, the number and location of raingages directly control the accuracy of runoff simulation.
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Reusser, Dominik, Theresa Blume, Bettina Schaefli, and Erwin Zehe. "Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models." Universität Potsdam, 2009. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2010/4511/.
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The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. This paper presents a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution and illustrates its application for two very different rainfall-runoff modeling case studies. The first is the Wilde Weisseritz case study, a headwater catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains, simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The second is the Malalcahuello case study, a headwater catchment in the Chilean Andes, simulated with the physicsbased model Catflow. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 such error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns, which can lead to the identification of model structural errors.
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Knoppová, Kateřina. "Srážko-odtokový proces v podmínkách klimatické změny." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2018. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-372312.
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The aim of The Diploma Thesis was to compile a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, that would be eligible to model discharge in conditions of climate changes. After thorough verifications of possible variants, user program Runoff Prophet that is eligible to simulate discharge in closing profile of any river basin was compiled within this paper. Runoff Prophet is deterministic lumped model with monthly computation time step and from the hydrologic phenomena it takes soil moisture, evapotranspiration, groundwater flow and the watercourse flow into account. Its calibration is based on the differential evolution principle with Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient as the calibration criterion. Developed software was tested on Vír I. catchment basin and the results of this probe were evaluated from viewpoints of air temperature, precipitation and discharge characteristics in the Dalečín measurement river cross section in distant future according to A1B SRES climate scenario, implemented in LARS-WG weather generator.
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Roy, Tirthankar, Hoshin V. Gupta, Aleix Serrat-Capdevila, and Juan B. Valdes. "Using satellite-based evapotranspiration estimates to improve the structure of a simple conceptual rainfall–runoff model." COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/623239.
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Daily, quasi-global (50° N–S and 180° W–E), satellite-based estimates of actual evapotranspiration at 0.25° spatial resolution have recently become available, generated by the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). We investigate the use of these data to improve the performance of a simple lumped catchment-scale hydrologic model driven by satellite-based precipitation estimates to generate streamflow simulations for a poorly gauged basin in Africa. In one approach, we use GLEAM to constrain the evapotranspiration estimates generated by the model, thereby modifying daily water balance and improving model performance. In an alternative approach, we instead change the structure of the model to improve its ability to simulate actual evapotranspiration (as estimated by GLEAM). Finally, we test whether the GLEAM product is able to further improve the performance of the structurally modified model. Results indicate that while both approaches can provide improved simulations of streamflow, the second approach also improves the simulation of actual evapotranspiration significantly, which substantiates the importance of making diagnostic structural improvementsto hydrologic models whenever possible.
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Broekhuizen, Ico. "Uncertainties in rainfall-runoff modelling of green urban drainage systems : Measurements, data selection and model structure." Licentiate thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Arkitektur och vatten, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-73367.
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Green urban drainage systems are used to avoid flooding and damages to people and property, while limiting the downstream flooding and water quality problems caused by pipe-based drainage systems. Computer models are used to analyse and predict the performance of such systems for design and operation purposes. Such models are simplifications of reality and based on uncertain measured data, so uncertainties will be involved in the modelling process and its outcomes, which can affect the design and operation of these systems. These uncertainties have been investigated extensively for traditional pipe-based urban drainage systems, but not yet for green alternatives. Therefore, the overall objective of this thesis is to contribute to improved applicability and reliability of computer models of green urban drainage systems. Specifically, the thesis aims to (1) improve understanding of the uncertainties arising from (a) model structure and (b) calibration data selection, (2) evaluate two alternative calibration methods for green urban drainage models, (3) discuss desirable structural features in urban drainage models, and (4) evaluate several sensors for hydrometeorological measurements in urban catchments. The effects of model structure uncertainty were investigated using long-term simulations of synthetic catchments with varying soil types and depths for three different models. First, it was found that surface runoff could be a significant part of the annual water balance in all three models, depending on the soil type and depth considered. Second, differences were found in how sensitive the different models were to changes in soil type and depth. Third, the variation between different models was often large compared to the variation between different soil types. Fourth, the magnitude of inter-annual and inter-event variation varied between the models. Overall, the findings indicate that significant differences may occur in urban drainage modelling studies, depending on which model is used, and this may affect the design or operation of such systems. The uncertainty from calibration data selection was investigated primarily by calibrating both a low- and high-resolution stormwater model using different sets of events. These event sets used different rainfall-runoff statistics to rank all observed events before selecting the top six for use in calibration. In addition, they varied by either calibrating all parameters simultaneously, or by calibrating parameters for impervious and pervious surfaces separately. This last approach sped up the calibration process. In the validation period the high-resolution models performed better than their low-resolution counterparts and the two-stage calibrations matched runoff volume and peak flows better than single-stage calibrations. Overall, the way in which the calibration events are selected was shown to have a major impact on the performance of the calibrated model. Calibration data selection was also investigated by examining different ways of including soil water content (SWC) observations in the calibration process of a model of a swale. Some model parameters could be identified from SWC, but not from outflow observations. Including SWC in the model evaluation affected the precision of swale outflow predictions. Different ways of setting initial conditions in the model (observations or an equilibrium condition) affected both of these findings. The precipitation sensors used in this thesis showed generally satisfactory performance in field calibration checks. Different types of precipitation sensors were associated with different requirements for maintenance and data acquisition. Sensors for sewer pipe flow rates showed good agreement with a reference instrument in the laboratory, as long as installation conditions were good. Higher pipe slopes and upstream obstacles lead to larger measurement errors, but this last effect was reduced by increasing water levels in the pipe. Sensor fouling was a source of errors and gaps in field measurements, showing that regular maintenance is required. The findings show that the evaluated flow sensors can perform satisfactorily, if measurement sites are carefully selected.Reliable modeling of green infrastructure in green urban catchments
Assessment and modeling of green infrastructure for urban catchments
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Mwelwa, Elenestina Mutekenya. "The application of the monthly time step Pitman rainfall-runoff model to the Kafue River basin of Zambia." Connect to this title online, 2004. http://eprints.ru.ac.za/173/.
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Tondu, Yohann. "Simulation of the Paris 1910 flood with a lumped hydrological model: the influence of frozen soil." Thesis, KTH, Vattendragsteknik, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-96310.
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In 1910, Paris experienced its biggest flood in the 20th century. In 2010, for the anniversary of this event – supposed to happen every 100 years ! – the flood prediction model that is now used on the Seine basin was tested on its simulation,… and failed to reproduce the observed flood volume. This paper will try to explain, and correct, such disappointing results. Many hypotheses have been tested and based on their results, it has been decided to develop a frost module in order to assess the influence of this phenomenon – that is not taken into account by the lumped hydrological model that is used – on the flood formation. A soil temperature model using air temperature as input data was also designed because soil temperature data were not available in 1910. The addition of the frost module did not, however, bring many improvements to the 1910 flood simulation because frost is a too rare phenomenon on the Seine basin for the module to be correctly calibrated. However, new perspectives are presented to continue the research on this phenomenon.
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Tanaka, Tomohiro. "Extreme flood frequency analysis and flood risk curve development considering spatiotemporal rainfall variability." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/217150.
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Kamalu, E. C. "A laboratory study of soil erosion on a model road shoulder due to simulated rainfall and runoff." Thesis, Cranfield University, 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.241229.
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Hsu, Shih-Jiun, and 徐士鈞. "Rainfall Runoff Model for Green Roof." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/6qqjtn.
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碩士國立臺灣海洋大學
河海工程學系
102
The great mass of green land in urban areas has been turned into impermeable pavement due to rapid urbanization in recent years. It has disturbed the urban hydrologic system resulting in urban flood problem which can’t be solved by traditional methods such as building storm water sewerage system, building detention/retention ponds, etc. Therefore, the new wave of Low Impact Development (LID) techniques have been advocated in recent years in US and other western countries to mitigate non-point source pollutants and storm water in urban areas. Green roof is one of the techniques used in LID but research in the effectiveness in flood mitigation is rare in Taiwan The purpose of this study is to establish a hydrologic model to simulate the relationship between rainfall and runoff for green roof. The model is an event and physical model. Interception of plant, Green Ampt infiltration mechanism, media properties, storage capacity of drainage board, and other parameters have been considered in the model. Major parameters in the model are calibrated by observed data. The calculation procedures of the model are programmed using Microsoft Office Excel language. In the study, an experimental extensive type green roof with surface area of 3.2 m2 (L=2.0m x W=1.6 m), 1% in slope angle, 20cm of medium depth, covering with plant named Eremochloa Ophiuroides is set up on the roof of No. 2 Building, Department of Harbor and River Engineering, National Taiwan Ocean University. Also a meteorological station is set up near the green roof for measuring climatic data including rainfall, wind speed, radiation, and temperature. Observation period started from January 2014. Seven rainfall events are measured to the end of June 2014. Three events are for parameters calibration and four for verification. The sensitivity analysis is carried for two major parameters (initial moisture content and hydraulic conductivity). Results show that hydraulic conductivity will only influence the moving speed within medium not runoff and initial moisture content is the major influential factor to runoff. In the verification, average difference for peak flow between measured and simulated values is 2.2% and 1.1% for average total runoff volume. If we compare the hydrologic condition between before and after green roof is set up, peak flow is reduced 88.1% and 88.9% for total runoff volume. The model established in this study can effectively describe the rainfall-runoff relationship. Also green roof has significant effectiveness in mitigating storm water for low return period rainfall.
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劉光武. "Studies on distributed rainfall-runoff model." Thesis, 1991. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/01514374952877252683.
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Yang, Tao-Chang, and 楊道昌. "A Study on Regional Continuous Rainfall-Runoff Model." Thesis, 1999. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/85487936370820245663.
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博士國立成功大學
水利及海洋工程學系
87
ABSTRACT The theme aims at developing a strategy for calibrating a continuous rainfall-runoff model at ungauged catchments, in which water resource projects may be planned and the flow series can be simulated at the early stage of planning. Two major parts are included in the study. To improve the performance of a continuous rainfall-runoff model at gauged catchments is the first part to be investigated. The second part is to develop a strategy for model calibration at ungauged catchments by utilizing the results of the former. The HBV hydrological model, broadly used in Europe, was employed in the study and slightly modified for successful application in the Gao-Pen Creek Basin. Since the model parameters should be calibrated with objective functions, the first part of this study detected the effects of model calibration results by using various objective functions, including the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MPE), and multi-stage mean absolute percentage error (MSMPE). It concluded that using RMSE and MPE emphasized the high-flow and low-flow simulations, respectively. The MSMPE was found to simultaneously simulate all flow ranges well. Since various flow stages can be considered as various objectives, respectively, the study combined the concepts of the multi-objective programming and the fuzzy set theory to develop a fuzzy multi-objective function. The other subjects were further discussed in the study, which included (1) effects on the internal mechanisms of hydrological models by using various objective functions, (2) modification of model parameters for simultaneously simulating high and low flows, and (3) development of an error correction method on the basis of the fuzzy logic controller, which had a well performance for error correction outside the calibration period. Before regionalizing the parameters of rainfall-runoff model, the sensitivities and interaction of parameters should be detected for further understanding. The study evaluated the interaction of parameters based on the entropy theory and found that the parameters for controlling soil moisture accounting had extreme interaction one another. It implies that it''s hard to find a representative parameter set for a basin and make the regionalization of parameters difficult. Based on the above study results, the second part of this study developed a calibration strategy for a continuous rainfall-runoff model at ungauged catchments. This strategy differs to the traditional one, which relates the model parameters and catchment characteristics at gauge catchments for extrapolating the model parameters to ungauged catchments. In the strategy of the study, the regional flow duration curve was first constructed by which synthetic flow duration curves for ungauged catchments were calculated. The objective functions based on fitting synthetic flow duration curves were then used for model calibration at ungauged catchments. Two catchments in the basin of Gao-Ping Creek were used to verify the calibration strategy. It concluded that the strategy could calibrate the model parameters reasonably and the flow series could be simulated well at ungauged catchments.
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CHANG, CHENG, and 張琤. "Establishing Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Fuzzy Time Series." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/dat375.
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碩士逢甲大學
水利工程與資源保育學系
106
When forecasting the flow of typhoon flood event,the corresponding relationship between the rainfall and the discharge of the rising limb and falling limb are different. In this study, in order to explore the different hydrological characteristics of the rising fuzzy relation matrix and the falling fuzzy relation matrix. The two fuzzy relation matrix are used to predict the runoff by rainfall data, and provide related information to the policy-maker for reference. According to the trend of flow, this paper divide rainfall data into the rising limb and the falling limb of rainfall data. Using the rainfall data corresponded to the rising limb and the falling limb to construct the rising fuzzy relation matrix and the falling fuzzy relation matrix. Using the test data to adjust the parameters of the rising fuzzy relation matrix and the falling fuzzy relation matrix, and using verification data to check that the parameters are set correctly. And this paper designs the two-stage fuzzy relation model. This model add a judgment, so that each input data of rainfall based on the judgments choose rising fuzzy relation matrix or the falling fuzzy relation matrix to estimate the discharge. The results show that performance of the two-stage fuzzy relation model is better than the single fuzzy relational model and Back-Propagation Network model.
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Sun, Wei Ting, and 孫維廷. "Appling the Distributed Surface-Runoff Components and a Tank Model to Establish a Rainfall-Runoff Model." Thesis, 2001. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/95468995396137048480.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
土木工程學研究所
89
The objective of this study was to establish a short-term rainfall-runoff model that was composed of distributed-components of the sub-watershed and the tank model. This model could reflect the characteristics of the basin geomorphology and the real structure of the stream network. Hence, this model could provide another better method to simulate the rainfall-runoff of upland watersheds. Here the method to estimate the amount of infiltration adopted the method developed by Soil Conservation Service (SCS) for computing the abstraction from rainfall. That was to separate the rainfall into infiltration and excess rainfall. Then input the infiltration and excess rainfall into the tank model and the direct runoff model respectively. Furthermore, the tank model was used to simulate the process of the infiltration transferred into the baseflow and could avoid the uncertainty of the mechanized procedure of the base-flow separation. As for the direct runoff model, a watershed can be treated as a number of subwatersheds based on the stream network. The digital terrain model (DTM) and the ARC/INFO software of Geographic Information System (GIS) were used to product the stream frame and demarcate subwatersheds. Furthermore, SCS dimensionless hydrograph and S-hydrograph methods were used to evaluate the five minutes duration of each distributed-component’s unit hydrograph. According to the space position of each subwatersheds and stream frame, the Muskingum-Cunge method developed by Cunge(1969) was applied to hydrologic river routing and simulate direct runoff hydrologic for the watershed. As for the process of the infiltration transferred into the baseflow, the two connected conceptual tanks were employed in this model to simulated the interflow and baseflow. In this study, the model was applied to simulate the runoff of the typhoon events in the Xiu-Loan upstream watershed of the Sh-men reservoir in Taiwan. During the Herb and Zeb typhoons, the river scoured or deposited so that the rating curve would be change. Therefore, the runoff coefficient was used to recheck the rating curve. The simulated results of Yancy, Polly, Omar, Ted, Herb, Winnie and Zeb were very satisfied with observated runoff when the rainfall intensity was high. Besides, another method adopted in this study was unit hydrograph and tank model and its simulated results also showed closely with previous model’s. But when rainfall intensity was small, the observed runoff coefficient was low. Hence, the model should be improved to simulate interception, depression storage and evaportranspiration in the further.
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Chuang, Wen-Nan, and 莊文南. "Effects of watershed urbanization on rainfall-runoff model parameters." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/34559139049899911311.
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博士國立中興大學
土木工程學系所
105
This study used a semi-distributed model with a parallel connection to examine the effects of urbanization variables. Data were obtained from watershed divisions displaying varying degrees of urbanization. The mean rainfall was calculated using the Kriging method. The model inputs, effective rainfall across the divisions, were obtained by subtracting mean rainfall from identical Φ-index values, based on the spatial-uniform loss assumption. Regression analysis determined the relationship between the parameters of 64 calibrations and urbanization variables among the divisions. The results showed that overland parameters displayed more consistent change in response to the imperviousness compared to the population. By contrast, the channel parameter was unaffected by change in urbanization. The verification results showed that power linkage was an available selection for linking division parameters with the corresponding imperviousness based on 46 cases using four evaluation criteria. The changes in imperviousness on overland parameters illustrated the hydrological effects of division urbanizations.
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CHEN, SHEN JAN, and 陳信彰. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Distributed Rainfall- Runoff Model." Thesis, 1997. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/48013786198634694923.
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碩士國立成功大學
水利及海洋工程學系
85
It has been known that hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, infiltra-tion,... , etc.) over basin are heterogeneous. Traditionallumped rainfall-runo-ff models ignore the spatial heterogeneity ofhydrological processes. To simula-te hydrological heterogeneity over basin, distributed rainfall- runoff models w-ere used in this study, in which global optimization technique was applied for model calibration. The validation from three storm events concluded that the d- istributed model has the ability to simulate the historicalrainfall-runoff rel-ationship. However, the model may be applied tostorm events outside of the range of conditions for which the model has been successfully calibrated and verified. In order to examine the error of model output caused by parameters uncertain-ty, four methods, including, Monte Carlo Method (MCM), Latin Hypercube Sampling Technique, Rosenblueth*s Point Estimation Method and Harr*s Point Estimation Method, were used in the study and build 95% confidence interval of estimatedhydrograph. From the comparison of four methods, Latin Hypercube Sampling Techn-ique has similar analysis results as Monte Carlo Method has. The variances esti-mated from Rosenblueth*s Point Estimation Method and Harr*s Point Estimation M-ethod are larger than that from MCM. Thesensitivity of three model parameters, overland flow storage parameter (Ks), channel storage parameter (Kc) and initi-al infiltration rate correcting parameter (CH), were further examined by local and global methods. CH was found to be more sensitive than the other model para-meters. In order toreduce model errors caused by CH parameter, which is the mo-st sensitive parameter in the model, building the relationship between CH and physical properties over basin is studied. The CH parameter was found to have g-ood relation with 5-day average flow before the event. The model performance w-as concluded from three storms that using CH derived by 5-day average flow bef-ore storm to replace average values of CH parameter from 6 calibration storms c-an improve the results of hydrograph simulation.Kekeywords : distributed rainfall-runoff model, uncertainty, sensitivity analysis.
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Zheng, Yuh-Chiou, and 鄭玉萩. "A Study on Grid-based Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model." Thesis, 1995. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/84532959992605862818.
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Tsai, Yi-Hua, and 蔡宜樺. "Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model Based on Triangulated Irregular Networks." Thesis, 1999. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/47925247246555434864.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
農業工程學研究所
87
The objective of this study is to establish and evaluate a distributed rainfall-runoff model based on triangulated irregular networks (TIN). Because of reflecting real terrain as a distributed runoff process, this model should be able to provide a better application for rainfall-runoff simulation of upland watersheds. The triangulated irregular networks digital terrain model (TIN-DTM) is used to divide the project watershed and provides topographic data, which the model needs in the topographic analysis system. When developing a distributed rainfall-runoff model with the TIN-DTM, the most difficult problem is that there are too many overland flow paths to calculate. Therefore, this study suggests that the original overland flow paths should be reserved, and use FORTRAN programs to set up an available configuration of topographic data automatically. It provides a more accurate and efficient way to solve this problem. To establish a distributed rainfall-runoff model with TIN-DTM, there are two major processes. First, ARC/INFO software of Geographic Information System is used to create three kinds of coverage: stream networks coverage, boundary coverage and very important point (VIP) coverage to represent the topographic variation of a basin. The TIN of the project area can be established by using these coverages. Each triangle in the TIN-DTM is depicted by three sets of data catalog, which are used to specify water flow direction and connect every triangle according to their topographic relations. Second, the kinematic wave model with finite-difference approximations is used to calculate the overland and channel flow of the basin. The parameters of this model are determined by three parameter optimization methods. That includes the mean of every optimum parameter, the optimum parameters of total examining events and the fuzzy programming parameter optimization, respectively. The second and the third methods have a new concept of the parameter optimization: all examining issues are regarded as a unity. The feasibility of these three optimization methods is assessed in order to examine their applicability in this model. The model as well as the parameter optimization methods established in this study is applied to Heng-Chi upstream watershed, a tributary of Tanshui River Basin, and the simulation results are very satisfactory. Therefore, the concept of parameter optimizations suggested in this study is adequate and practical. This model, moreover, provides a new approach to flood forecast and management of hillside watersheds in Taiwan.
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Tseng, Tze-Lien, and 鄭子璉. "Study of Distributed Artificial Neural Network Rainfall-Runoff- Model." Thesis, 1996. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/22234240867796452727.
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碩士國立成功大學
水利及海洋工程學系
84
The computer''s calculational ability has been much improvement in the last year. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has an important breakthrough in theoretical, and it makes the ANN become very popular method of research among the Artificial Intelligence (AI). ANN basis on simulation of thinking and the ability to memorize of a living thing. Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPN) model is universality in exercise in this paper of ANN. Three Rainfall-Runoff-Models harmonies with average rainfall of catchment and direct rainfall of every raingages and every average rainfall on geographical region in this paper. The hourly rainfall data collected from 6 recordingraingauges over TsengWen reservoir catchment are used for case study. Using rainfall data and inflow data in input-layer and using objective data in output-layer. After training, about property of Rainfall-Runoff-Model can be separated and memorized in ANN. Providing to analyze method of Rainfall-Runoff-Model for catchment of large area in this paper. If learning direction is considered by application direction in ANN, then using ''Observation Learning'' supply to operate in the scene and using ''Simulation Learning''supply to design. On the model to simplify, network can be pruning referred figure of weight sensitivity analysis.
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Pi, Lan-Chieh, and 畢嵐杰. "A Study on Surface and Subsurface Rainfall-Runoff Model." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/76412557337472128811.
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博士國立中興大學
土木工程學系
93
The main purpose of this dissertation is to develop a surface and subsurface rainfall-runoff model that illustrates the complexity of the watershed hydrological process. This research contains three steps. First, using Philip’s infiltration model, the rainfall is divided into effective rainfall and infiltration. These two portions are the input for the surface (ST Model) and subsurface runoff models (TSTs Model), respectively. This arrangement avoids the uncertainty caused by the base flow separation procedure in conventional models. The first step is to establish a surface runoff model. The linear reservoir concept is used as the framework for this model. Based on the kinematic wave model and recession curve theory, a theoretical orifice coefficient formula for surface runoff model is derived. Incorporated with the geomorphic conditions, these parameters better represent the surface conditions. This overcomes the shortcoming in the conventional Tank Model in lacking the ability to describe the surface conditions. The geomorphic parameters of the ST model were analyzed using the Geographic Information System and Digital Elevation Model. Remote Sensing analysis technology and satellite image information was used to produce the coefficients of roughness using a supervised backward propagation neural network model to interpret the surface coverage conditions. The proposed model can effectively handle the temporal and special watershed variation characteristics. The second step is to establish a subsurface runoff model constructed using Two Serial Tank models simulating the interflow and subsurface flows, respectively. A summation of the quantity of these two flows is the subsurface runoff value. The linear reservoir and continuity equations govern the inflow and outflow control mechanism between these two tanks. The model parameters were obtained using the global optimization method. This research compares the Multistart Powell and SCE methods. The comparison results show that the Multistart Powell method is superior to the SCE method in parameter convergence consistency in numerical test and observation data. The subsurface runoff model parameters are identified using the Multistart method combined with the automatic validation strategies proposed by this research. Given appropriate constraints, the penalty function and no less than 95 flow data are in the recession period. Consistent model convergence parameter results can be achieved. The third step in this research is to combine the aforementioned runoff models into a comprehensive Surface and Subsurface Rainfall-Runoff Model (2S-R Model). Geomorphic conditions including roughness, slope, and infiltration capacity are considered in the surface runoff mechanism. The runoff mechanism is divided into three runoff components; surface flow, interflow and subsurface flow. Considering the subsurface runoff mechanism, more accurate recession limb in the hydrograph simulations can be carried out to improve the over estimate in the initial stage and under estimate in the recession period over that obtained with conventional hydrological models. Using the observation data from the Her-Kan Creek watershed, the proposed 2S-R model was proven to have better accuracy in rainfall runoff process modeling.
49
Cheng, Jen-Chieh, and 鄭仁傑. "Application of Radar Precipitation Data on Rainfall Runoff Model." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/01285119220140442349.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立屏東科技大學
土木工程系所
98
The objective of this study is to apply HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model on 16 major sub basins of Donggang River watershed. The peak discharge of Donggang River is analyzed by the real-time gauged precipitation data and the radar precipitation data. Each rain gauge station of the real-time rainfall data is distributed to each sub basin by Thiessen method in HEC-HMS model. Initial and, constant rate loss module and recession module are used in HEC-HMS. Moreover, the rainfall is transformed into runoff hydrograph by Clark's unit hydrograph method. Radar rainfall is converted to the rainfall data format in HEC-HMS by using Geography Information System and HEC-DSS model to analyse the discharge difference of the same typhoon event in HEC-HMS model. Further more by changing the number of gauge stations to meet the results of runoff hydrograph simulating by radar rainfall data, one can understand the effecenay of gauge station distribution of Donggang River Basin. The result reveal that, for Sepat Typhoon, without adjust the model parameters the average error of peak discharge is approximately 11.8% after adjusted parameters the average error could reduce to 3.9%. Also the result show that, for Phoenix Typhoon, without adjust the parameters the average error of peak discharge 2.7% after adjusted the parameters the number could reduce to 0.6%. But the difference of average error of total flow volume is quite small between unadjust and adjust the model parameters, for both Sepat and Phoenix Typhoon. The study is set up a procedure to establish the parameters range for HEC-HMS by using the gauge rainfall data and radar rainfall data. And the study also provide the possibility of further application on radar rainfall runoff model in the future. The gauge station number will affect the runoff hydrograph result. The model reveal that using five gauge stations to distribute the rainfall in Donggang River Basin, the result hydrograph is more close to the radar runoff hydrograph than using other number of gauge station. The result show that the current gauge station distribution is enough for Donggang River Basin.
50
Zhang, Wei-Lun, and 張維倫. "A Study of Applying ANN on Rainfall-Runoff Model." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/90997274881268256236.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立屏東科技大學
土木工程系所
100
In hydrological applications, Empirical formula is conceptually simple, easy to use, commonly used in the compute relationship between Rainfall and Runoff . Particularly to no flow record region or engineering design, through the few parameters such formula can quickly estiniate a peak flow discharge and lag time. Artificial neural network (ANN) is one of a commonly used black-box model scheme with variables mathematical structure and can objectively judge the nonlinear relationship between input and output data. In recent years, many studies pointed out that the neural network can derived successfully the mapping relationship between ramfall and runoff. This study tries to applied ANN model on Linbian Creek rainfall runoff analysis. The model input data include different rainfall periods and amount in proportion to 0-25%, 25%-50%, 50%-75%, and 75%-100% stage. By using these input data, model will estimate the hydrograph parameters, such as peak discharge, base time, time to peal, time to 50% and 75% peak, and width of time of 50% and 75% peak. The final model verified by 4 flood events, and results compared to traditional multiple regression model and Snyder unit hydrograph showed that ANN model has more accurate estimation than other two methods on most of parameters. Therefore the future practical engineering application, only need thedesign hyetograph, as the input of the neural network model ehich can estimate the runoff discharge hydrograph fo the tiver baisn, hydrograph in Linbian Creek.