Academic literature on the topic 'Public relation campaigns'

In Singapore, top down public education campaigns have long been a mode of governance by which the conduct of citizens is constantly regulated. This article examines how in two fairly recent campaigns, a new approach to campaign communication is used that involves media interdiscursivity, viz., the mixing of discourses and genres in which the media constitute a significant element. The present approach involves the appropriation of a popular local television character, ‘Phua Chu Kang’, in order to address the public through educational rap music videos. Media interdiscursivity is based on an attempt to engage the public via a discourse of the ‘lifeworld’. The present article analyzes the ‘lifeworld’ discourse in terms of a combination of two processes, ‘informalization’ (the use of informal and conversational modes of address) and ‘communitization’ (the semiotic construction of a community of people). The dual processes are examined and discussed in relation to the choice of Phua Chu Kang as an ‘ordinary’ and almost ‘real’ person, including his informal register and speech style; his use of Singlish; and his construction of ‘community.’ The presence of Singlish, in particular, is interesting because (despite the official disdain for the language) it is included as part of PCK’s public performance of the lifeworld. The article concludes by considering this form of media interdiscursivity as the government’s shrewd way of achieving its social governance goals.

The aim of the article is to analyze the potential educational consequences of commercial advertising campaigns. The author creates the hermeneutics of the selected visual element of the ”Join the Procession” campaign of the Converse brand present in public space. This is an analysis of the persuasion strength of this campaign in relation to knowledge of youth psychology and sociology. The author proves that there is a third education space important for shaping the attitudes of young people – beyond home and school control, which has all the means and conditions to deny or eliminate the fi rst two actions. The author postulates the restoration and enhancement of the educational function of the school.

Historical, social and cultural understanding of public relations in Australia is limited because most histories of PR examine practices specifically labelled ‘public relations’ and almost all study PR from ‘inside out’ – that is, from the subjective perspective of PR practitioners. This article reports an alternative approach to PR history which applies historical analysis of major events, icons, and institutions in society to identify the methods of their construction politically, culturally and discursively. This article specifically reports historical and critical analysis of the creation and celebration of Australia’s national day, Australia Day from soon after the British flag was hoisted in Sydney on 26 January 1788 to the sophisticated pageantry of the nation’s bicentenary in 1988 and its entry to the new millennium in 2000. This research challenges a ‘blind spot’ in social science and humanities disciplines in relation to public relations by showing that the practices of PR are deeply embedded in the social and cultural construction of societies. This study confirms Taylor and Kent’s claim that “all nation building campaigns include large communication components that are essentially public relations campaigns”.

The theory and practice of community unionism has been central to discussions of alt-labor, union renewal, and revitalization, particularly in relation to union praxis at the urban or local scale. This comparative case study explores two labor-community campaigns to defend public child care services in the context of neoliberal austerity in urban/suburban space. While labor-community coalitions are a necessary—if not sufficient—condition for success, in urban/suburban contexts in which community allies are weak and municipal administrations hostile, public-sector unions must continue to play a leading role in campaigns despite the risk of being cast as defenders of sectional interests rather than of the public good. In such contexts, union involvement in community organizing is a necessary precursor to successful labor-community campaigns.

Background and Purpose Child safety campaigns play an important role in disseminating injury prevention information to families. A critical discourse analysis of gender bias in child safety campaign marketing materials can offer important insights into how families are represented and the potential influence that gender bias may have on uptake of injury prevention information.Methods Our approach was informed by poststructural feminist theory, and we used critical discourse analysis to identify discourses within the poster materials. We examined the national Safe Kids Canada Safe Kids Week campaign poster material spanning twenty years (1997-2016). Specifically, we analyzed the posters’ typeface, colour, images, and language to identify gender bias in relation to discourses surrounding parenting, safety, and societal perceptions of gender.Results The findings show that there is gender bias present in the Safe Kids Week poster material. The posters represent gender as binary, mothers as primary caregivers, and showcase stereotypically masculine sporting equipment among boys and stereotypically feminine equipment among girls. Interestingly, we found that the colour and typeface of the text both challenge and perpetuate the feminization of safety.Discussion It is recommended that future child safety campaigns represent changing family dynamics, include representations of children with non-traditionally gendered sporting equipment, and avoid the representation of gender as binary. This analysis contributes to the discussion of the feminization of safety in injury prevention research and challenges the ways in which gender is represented in child safety campaigns.

This article examines the development of competing forms of fiscal citizenship in Oregon tax-related ballot initiative campaigns between 1970 and 2010. Antitax advocates constructed a “taxpayer identity politics” that positioned a privatized “taxpayer” against representatives of the state, recipients of public services, and public sector unions. In response, a progressive coalition produced an alternative citizen—the “Oregonian,” a socially responsible taxpayer/citizen who supports and defends public services and values a “common good.” “Incipient commoning” emerges as support for “the common good” through discourse about community and belonging that is more and other than, though in relation to, the state. Attention to how “publics” conceive of themselves suggests that concepts like the “the commons” already circulate in the imaginaries and vocabularies of advocates resisting neoliberal policies.

Studies in the wake of the “cultural turn” in diplomatic history have shown that propaganda and public diplomacy were key aspects of Western Cold War strategy. This article expands recent literature by focusing on propaganda practices at the grassroots level, making use of West and East German archival records to trace information campaigns in relation to the Vietnam War. In addition to explaining the organization of East German propaganda campaigns, the article explores the methods used by the psychological warfare section of West Germany’s Ministry of Defense. This section maintained an unofficial network that helped publish “camouflaged propaganda” at home as well as in France and Great Britain. Germany’s Nazi past was an important aspect of East Germany’s campaign that accused West Germany of having deployed a “Vietnam Legion.” Interestingly, Germany’s Nazi legacy also cast a shadow over the methods West German psychological warfare experts relied on to counter East German accusations.

IntroductionThe Time to Change (TTC) anti-stigma campaign, launched in January 2009 in England, intends to make fundamental improvements across England in: public knowledge, attitudes and discriminatory behaviour in relation to people with mental illness. To be effective and valid the campaign must reach a wide range of diverse audiences. This study explores attitudes of people from ethnic minority communities in relation to mental health.ObjectivesThe study investigates:1)General attitudes and perceptions about mental illness in ethnic minority communities2)How we might increase awareness about mental wellbeing and decrease stigma in ethnic minority communities.MethodsTen focus groups with members of ethnic minority groups were conducted. Five groups consisted of service users and five were composed of non-service users. Two groups comprised participants from an Indian origin, two Somali origin, two Afro-Caribbean origin and the other groups were mixed.ResultsWe will present findings regarding the ways in which traditional perceptions of mental health and personal experiences of ethnic minority service users affect their perceptions of sources of support such as family, friends, medical staff and religion and how this feedback could inform ant-stigma interventions.ConclusionThe study suggests that in order to maximise the impact of anti-stigma campaigns, attention should be given to sources of discrimination and traditional perceptions of mental illness which are emphasised by ethnic minority groups. When planning anti-stigma campaigns it is important to incorporate experiences and perceptions from a wide range of audiences.

The Australian Federal government has well-defined guidelines for undertaking program evaluations. Advertising and Public Relations campaigns support program aims, and are subject to the same guidelines. However, an examination of actual practice in the Australian Federal government, as observed by the Office of Government Information and Advertising in Canberra, suggests that there are significant differences in the extent to which Public Relations campaigns, as opposed to advertising campaigns, are systematically evaluated. Evaluation theory, Public Relations theory, strategic planning theory, and public administration theory provide insights into methods of managing and reporting on communication campaigns designed to forward government objectives. A literature review and an assessment of existing models of Public Relations evaluation were undertaken, and a synthesis of several theoretical and practical approaches led to the construction of a model of Public Relations evaluation which could be applied to Australian government communication campaigns.

This creative project consists of a literature review of material concerning the combination of traditional public relations and advertising tactics with new ideas of multi-media to create a field referred to as marketing public relations. The project also contains a DVD component that includes elements of a marketing public relations campaign designed for a small business in Muncie, Indiana. The DVD is formatted so that elements can be viewed independently and in any order the consumer chooses. This puts the user in charge of what they are viewing or listening to at any time.
Department of Telecommunications

The purpose of this project is to apply public relations theoretical frameworks and advertising strategies to the public relations campaign for Bangkok Fashion week to increase the number of domestic participants.

The target of this thesis is to formulate and defend the statement that there is no clear distinction between the propaganda and public relations methods in the field of international politics. The fundamentals of this thesis represent empirical observations and their subsequent analysis in various case studies. Many of these case studies date back to early history, that's why the corresponding literature was used as source of information. In addition, the nature of propaganda is often connected with miscellaneous affairs of international extent. Its true impact is revealed eventually. To confirm the preliminary thesis there are partial targets and steps stated in the introduction. The first step was to determine own area of definitions, in compliance with the generally accepted standpoints, to which I also often refer. To support my thesis I decided to apply some mathematical processes, and so I imagined the notions as sets according to certain criterion. This way of thinking allowed me to view the notions as non-empty set, equal to the intersection of international politics, propaganda and public relations. An important part of this thesis is the chapter dealing with contemporary literature regarding the issues of propaganda and PR. Various interesting not necessarily historically important case studies of propaganda campaigns represent another partial step confirming the thesis that propaganda and public relations in international relations are not importantly different.

AbstractThis chapter examines the evolution of British farm animal welfare politics during the last two decades of Harrison’s campaigning. In 1979, the RSPCA boycotted the Thatcher government’s new Farm Animal Welfare Council (FAWC). The short-lived protest triggered a membership revolt and moderation of RSPCA policies. It also coincided with a weakening of agricultural corporatism in Westminster. FAWC was granted relative independence from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food and explicitly acknowledged an updated version of the five freedoms. Ensuing British welfare reforms were also driven by the increasing involvement of European bodies in animal welfare. Now in her 60s, Ruth Harrison joined FAWC as a welfare member. Her increasing public recognition as a senior welfare campaigner enabled her to proactively push for reforms, expand her fundraising activities, and sponsor additional welfare research. By the late 1990s, most of her welfare positions had become part of mainstream politics.

This chapter aimed to provide responses, within the issue of cardiovascular health, to the effectiveness of the relation between the message's content (“what”) and form (“how”) and the triad of (cognitive-affective-behavioral) effects. The qualitative content analysis, concretely thematic and rhetorical types, was applied to a corpus of five ads from international campaigns (2015-2019) and three static Portuguese ads (2018-2019). One online survey of Portuguese university students (N = 55) was conducted. The findings show that the ads' issues vary from irreparable losses to the encouragement of healthy behaviors. The pathos tends to elicit various reactions (e.g., alarm, call to action, empathy, fear, guilt, hurt, worry). The logos are constructed of discursive devices (e.g., construction of a narrative, use of questions, selection of colors with connotative purposes, descriptions of concepts), evidence, and stylistic devices. Most of the respondents recognize the cognitive and affective influence, but not the behavioral effects.

This chapter demonstrates how Web social media can be used in different ways to create more personalized or more impersonal messages in political public relations campaigns. When everyone is awakening to the potential of these social media for political communication campaigns, it is necessary to find alternative strategies to spread our word and distinguish ourselves from our competition. At this point, it is important to define the targets of persuasion and public relations; in addition, the manner in which a public relations campaign can be helpful is yet to be established, as well as the most adequate social media to be used.

Planned and/or unplanned developments in the setting, which are directly or indirectly in connection to a certain profession or are of multidisciplinary character, have impact on initiation and steering of the course and direction of research campaigns of “vigilant” professional analysts and/or researchers of a profession, i.e. professions. It was the occurrence of the “vicious infection - SARS CoV 2” at the territory of Planet Earth which also initiated the subject professional research in the area of applied thermal engineering within two partial units which may be in interaction with the infection, i.e. which may also be in causal connection: “applied thermal engineering in building stock (only business and residential buildings)”- “sophisticated thermotechnical system integrated in a business or residential building”- “pathogenic microorganisms”. When general, professional and/or scientific public was faced with occurrence of plentitude of information, misinformation, interpretations, misconceptions, and/or ambiguities in the “black box of SARS CoV 2 pandemic”, the subject research was initiated in an analytical and principled manner with application of methods of analysis based on the “logic of rational action” in the given area. The aspects of the approach are adapted to the subject of the research, imperatively and consecutively imposed by the need for analysis and evaluation of causality between the given partial units and pathogenic microorganisms. In relation to the accepted partial units in the stage of utilization of the existing business or residential building for the dedicated purpose, the findings point that, inter alia, if such buildings were constructed as a result of conscientious, competent, responsible, and highly professional work of multidisciplinary builders and if they comprise adequate integrated sophisticated thermotechnical systems which have systematic, functional, and operating capability and which achieve satisfactory target function of the system, they do not “generate” pathogenic microorganisms, do not participate in their transfer, do not intensify their pathogenic properties and activity, do not contribute to occurrence of pandemics, do not jeopardize human health, and do not cause their mortality, etc. but are basically also not intended to “destroy” pathogenic microorganisms reaching the system from the outside and/or treated limited closed spaced within the building frequented by people off their working activities and/or pursuing their working activities, individually or in groups. Depending on the type of the current sophisticated thermotechnical system in the building, if necessary, it is possible to perform interventions aimed at reconstruction so as to “immunize” the system in a manner which may be recognized and designed by professional, competent, experienced, and dedicated thermal engineers. It needs to be noted that the subject exploration is conducted for deontological reasons, with the aim to promote theory and practice in the given.

Planned and/or unplanned developments in the setting, which are directly or indirectly in connection to a certain profession or are of multidisciplinary character, have impact on initiation and steering of the course and direction of research campaigns of “vigilant” professional analysts and/or researchers of a profession, i.e. professions. It was the occurrence of the “vicious infection - SARS CoV 2” at the territory of Planet Earth which also initiated the subject professional research in the area of applied thermal engineering within two partial units which may be in interaction with the infection, i.e. which may also be in causal connection: “applied thermal engineering in building stock (only business and residential buildings)”- “sophisticated thermotechnical system integrated in a business or residential building”- “pathogenic microorganisms”. When general, professional and/or scientific public was faced with occurrence of plentitude of information, misinformation, interpretations, misconceptions, and/or ambiguities in the “black box of SARS CoV 2 pandemic”, the subject research was initiated in an analytical and principled manner with application of methods of analysis based on the “logic of rational action” in the given area. The aspects of the approach are adapted to the subject of the research, imperatively and consecutively imposed by the need for analysis and evaluation of causality between the given partial units and pathogenic microorganisms. In relation to the accepted partial units in the stage of utilization of the existing business or residential building for the dedicated purpose, the findings point that, inter alia, if such buildings were constructed as a result of conscientious, competent, responsible, and highly professional work of multidisciplinary builders and if they comprise adequate integrated sophisticated thermotechnical systems which have systematic, functional, and operating capability and which achieve satisfactory target function of the system, they do not “generate” pathogenic microorganisms, do not participate in their transfer, do not intensify their pathogenic properties and activity, do not contribute to occurrence of pandemics, do not jeopardize human health, and do not cause their mortality, etc. but are basically also not intended to “destroy” pathogenic microorganisms reaching the system from the outside and/or treated limited closed spaced within the building frequented by people off their working activities and/or pursuing their working activities, individually or in groups. Depending on the type of the current sophisticated thermotechnical system in the building, if necessary, it is possible to perform interventions aimed at reconstruction so as to “immunize” the system in a manner which may be recognized and designed by professional, competent, experienced, and dedicated thermal engineers. It needs to be noted that the subject exploration is conducted for deontological reasons, with the aim to promote theory and practice in the given.

A recent Volpe Center report [1] for the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) Rail Energy, Environment, and Engine (E3) Technology research and development program reviewed rail industry best practices (BPs) and strategies for improving energy efficiency (E2) and environmental sustainability. The review included examples of and opportunities for adoption of international transferrable BPs, and US technologies for equipment, operations and logistics software tools that have measurably improved E2 performance for passenger and freight railroads. Drivers providing renewed impetus for rail industry E2 advances include environmental compliance requirements with US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) locomotive emission standards, US Department of Transportation Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality improvement program grants, state, regional and urban clean diesel campaigns, as well as the FRA National Rail Plan, and High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail (HSIPR) initiatives. The report presented comparative rail system energy efficiency data and trends relative to competing modes, illustrated the benefits of energy-efficient technologies, and of alternative fuels use. Based on a comprehensive literature review and on experts’ inputs, the report highlighted models of corporate rail sustainability plans and system-wide BPs and success stories. Available rail equipment and operational practices proven to improve E2 with environmental and economic benefits for all rail industry segments were illustrated. Findings and recommendations for further improving rail E2 and sustainability were tailored to the specific needs and goals of intercity and commuter passenger rail, and freight railroads (Class I-III). Key opportunities highlighted included: public-private partnerships (P3) with Federal agencies (FRA, EPA/SmartWay) for joint research, development test and evaluation (RDT&E)on advanced equipment (electric and hybrid, or dual fuel locomotives), or alternative fuels (biodiesel, CNG/LNG, Fuel cells/Hydrogen); participation in international rail organizations (UIC) and trade associations (AAR, AREMA, APTA, AASHTO), and partnering with regional and State environmental protection agencies for cross-enterprise E2 and sustainability improvements.

This paper presents an experimental study of the flow mechanisms of tip leakage across a blade of an unshrouded turbine rotor. It shows the design of a new one-and-1/2-stage, unshrouded turbine configuration, which has been developed within the Turbomachinery Laboratory of ETH Zurich. This test case is a model of a high work (Δh/u2 = 2.36) axial turbine. The experimental investigation comprises data from unsteady and steady probe measurements, which has been acquired around all the bladerows of the one-and-1/2-stage, unshrouded turbine. A newly developed 2-sensor Fast Response Aerodynamic Probe (FRAP) technique has been used in the current measurement campaign. The paper contains a detailed analysis of the unsteady interaction between rotor and stator blade rows, with particular attention paid on the flow in the blade tip region. It has been found that the pressure field of the second stator row has a influence on the development of the tip leakage vortex downstream of the rotor. The vortex is modulated by the stator profiles and shows variation in size and relative position to the rotor trailing edge when it stretches around the stator leading edge. Thereby a deflection of the tip leakage vortex has been observed, which expresses in a varying circumferential distance between two neighboring vortices of ±20% of a rotor pitch. Furthermore, a significant influence of quasi-stationary secondary flow features of the upstream stator row on the secondary flow of the rotor has been detected. The geometry data of the one-and-1/2-stage turbine will be available to the public domain for validation and improvement of numerical tools.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.