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Journal articles on the topic 'Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 14 March 2023

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1

Pfaffermayr, Michael. "Constrained Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation of structural gravity models." International Economics 161 (May 2020): 188–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2019.11.014.

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2

Prehn, S., B. Brümmer, and T. Glauben. "Gravity model estimation: fixed effects vs. random intercept Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood." Applied Economics Letters 23, no. 11 (November 2, 2015): 761–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2015.1105916.

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3

Santos Silva, J. M. C., and Silvana Tenreyro. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator." Economics Letters 112, no. 2 (August 2011): 220–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.05.008.

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Timsina, Krishna P., and Richard J. Culas. "Do Free Trade Agreements Increase Australian Trade: An Application of Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator?" Journal of East-West Business 26, no. 1 (December 2, 2019): 56–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10669868.2019.1685056.

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Fauziah, Ghina, and Siti Sunendiari. "Estimasi Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood untuk Mengatasi Masalah dalam Model Log-Linear pada Kasus Kusta di Jawa Barat Tahun 2018." Jurnal Riset Statistika 1, no. 1 (October 26, 2021): 57–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.29313/jrs.v1i1.147.

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Abstract. Poisson regression is a statistical method used to analyze the relationship between the response variable and the predictor variable where the data from the response variable is in the form of count data and follows the Poisson distribution. Poisson regression is used to model rare or rare events, so that the response variable is very likely to have a value of zero. Poisson regression is a regression model whose response variable is non-negative. Usually, this model fits the linear regression applied to the log-transformed response variable. However, when the response variable data has a value of zero and is modeled using a log-linear model it will create a biased estimator as well as log-linear regression where heteroscedasticity occurs in the response variable will produce a biased parameter estimator. However, the pseudo poisson maximum likelihood (PPML) provides a natural way to deal with the problem. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that influence leprosy cases in West Java in 2018 using PPML estimates. The results show that health facilities, healthy homes, and health insurance are factors that influence the number of leprosy cases in West Java in 2018. Using the AIC value, it shows that the use of PPML estimates produces better results than the log-linear model. Abstrak. Regresi poisson merupakan suatu metode statistika yang digunakan untuk menganalisa hubungan antara variabel respon dengan variabel prediktor dimana data dari variabel respon berbentuk data cacahan atau count data dan mengikuti distribusi poisson. Regresi poisson digunakan untuk memodelkan kejadian langka atau jarang terjadi, sehingga variabel respon sangat memungkinkan memiliki nilai nol. Regresi poisson merupakan model regresi yang variabel responnya bernilai non-negatif. Biasanya, model ini cocok dengan regresi linier yang diterapkan pada variabel respon yang ditransformasikan log. Namun, ketika data variabel respon memiliki nilai nol dan dimodelkan menggunakan model log-linear akan menciptakan suatu penaksir yang bias begitu juga regresi log-linear yang terjadi heteroskedastisitas pada variabel responnya akan menghasilkan suatu penaksir parameter yang bias. Namun, pseudo poisson maximum likelihood (PPML) menyediakan cara alami untuk menangani masalah tersebut. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu untuk mengetahui faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap kasus kusta di Jawa Barat tahun 2018 menggunakan estimasi PPML. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa fasilitas kesehatan, rumah sehat, dan jaminan kesehatan menjadi faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap jumlah kasus kusta di Jawa Barat tahun 2018. Dengan menggunakan nilai AIC, menunjukkan bahwa penggunaan estimasi PPML menghasilkan hasil yang lebih baik dari pada model log-linear.
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6

Motta, Victor. "Estimating Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood rather than log-linear model of a log-transformed dependent variable." RAUSP Management Journal 54, no. 4 (October 14, 2019): 508–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/rausp-05-2019-0110.

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to account for a recent non-mainstream econometric approach using microdata and how it can inform research in business administration. More specifically, the paper draws from the applied microeconometric literature stances in favor of fitting Poisson regression with robust standard errors rather than the OLS linear regression of a log-transformed dependent variable. In addition, the authors point to the appropriate Stata coding and take into account the possibility of failing to check for the existence of the estimates – convergency issues – as well as being sensitive to numerical problems. Design/methodology/approach The author details the main issues with the log-linear model, drawing from the applied econometric literature in favor of estimating multiplicative models for non-count data. Then, he provides the Stata commands and illustrates the differences in the coefficient and standard errors between both OLS and Poisson models using the health expenditure dataset from the RAND Health Insurance Experiment (RHIE). Findings The results indicate that the use of Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimators yield better results that the log-linear model, as well as other alternative models, such as Tobit and two-part models. Originality/value The originality of this study lies in demonstrating an alternative microeconometric technique to deal with positive skewness of dependent variables.
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Kumar, Pushp, Naresh Chandra Sahu, and Mohd Arshad Ansari. "Export Potential of Climate Smart Goods in India: Evidence from the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator." International Trade Journal 35, no. 3 (March 10, 2021): 288–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2021.1890652.

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8

Bugoma, Suwadu, Noureddine Abdellatif, and Gilbert Niyongabo. "Determinants of imports in East African community: a comparative analysis using Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator." Applied Mathematical Sciences 16, no. 12 (2022): 679–700. http://dx.doi.org/10.12988/ams.2022.917268.

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9

Dlamini, Sabelo Nick, Wisdom Mdumiseni Dlamini, and Ibrahima Socé Fall. "Predicting COVID-19 Infections in Eswatini Using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 15 (July 27, 2022): 9171. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19159171.

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COVID-19 country spikes have been reported at varying temporal scales as a result of differences in the disease-driving factors. Factors affecting case load and mortality rates have varied between countries and regions. We investigated the association between socio-economic, weather, demographic and health variables with the reported cases of COVID-19 in Eswatini using the maximum likelihood estimation method for count data. A generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model was fitted with the data comprising 15 covariates to predict COVID-19 risk in the whole of Eswatini. The results show that the variables that were key determinants in the spread of the disease were those that included the proportion of elderly above 55 years at 98% (95% CI: 97–99%) and the proportion of youth below the age of 35 years at 8% (95% CI: 1.7–38%) with a pseudo R-square of 0.72. However, in the early phase of the virus when cases were fewer, results from the Poisson regression showed that household size, household density and poverty index were associated with reported COVID-19 cases in the country. We then produced a disease-risk map of predicted COVID-19 in Eswatini using variables that were selected by the regression model at a 5% significance level. The map could be used by the country to plan and prioritize health interventions against COVID-19. The identified areas of high risk may be further investigated to find out the risk amplifiers and assess what could be done to prevent them.
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Correia, Sergio, Paulo Guimarães, and Tom Zylkin. "Fast Poisson estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects." Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata 20, no. 1 (March 2020): 95–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1536867x20909691.

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In this article, we present ppmlhdfe, a new command for estimation of (pseudo-)Poisson regression models with multiple high-dimensional fixed effects (HDFE). Estimation is implemented using a modified version of the iteratively reweighted least-squares algorithm that allows for fast estimation in the presence of HDFE. Because the code is built around the reghdfe package ( Correia, 2014 , Statistical Software Components S457874, Department of Economics, Boston College), it has similar syntax, supports many of the same functionalities, and benefits from reghdfe‘s fast convergence properties for computing high-dimensional leastsquares problems. Performance is further enhanced by some new techniques we introduce for accelerating HDFE iteratively reweighted least-squares estimation specifically. ppmlhdfe also implements a novel and more robust approach to check for the existence of (pseudo)maximum likelihood estimates.
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Manzoor, Wajiha, Nabeel Safdar, and Hafiz Zahid Mahmood. "A gravity model analysis of international migration from BRIC to OECD countries using Poisson Pseudo-maximum likelihood Approach." Heliyon 7, no. 6 (June 2021): e07357. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07357.

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Dadakas, Dimitrios, Salim Ghazvini Kor, and Scott Fargher. "Examining the trade potential of the UAE using a gravity model and a Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator." Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 29, no. 5 (January 14, 2020): 619–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2019.1710551.

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13

Alamri, Y., M. Reed, and S. Saghaian. "DETERMINANTS OF VIRTUAL WATER TRADE OF CEREAL CROPS IN SAUDI ARABIA." IRAQI JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES 51, no. 4 (August 26, 2020): 1118–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.36103/ijas.v51i4.1090.

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In this research, we used a gravity model to investigate whether water scarcity variables influence agricultural trade of cereal crops for Saudi Arabia. We compare the OLS, Fixed effects, Random effects, and Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimators to determine the best model. The AIC, and multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity, and autocorrelation tests assist in determining estimation procedures and the final model. We cluster the errors by distance to improve the specific country effect variables, such as economic mass. We find that water-related variables influence virtual water imports of cereals, millet, corn, barely, and sesame.
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Recalde, María Luisa, Marcelo Florensa, and Ivan Iturralde. "Gravity Equation and Trade Agreements: A Different Econometric Approach." Revista de Economía y Estadística 46, no. 2 (December 1, 2008): 83–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.55444/2451.7321.2008.v46.n2.3853.

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This paper is aimed at multiplicatively estimating the parameters of the gravity equation by using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML) estimator, and taking heteroskedasticity into account at the same time. Besides, in order to compare the results, the model will be estimated trough OLS and Tobit, and the precision of the different estimators will be assessed by a set of specification tests. Results indicate that the effects of Preferential Trade Agreements are very sensitive to the method chosen to estimate the gravity model and the results obtained under PPML are the most reliable.
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Polat, Ali, and Mehmet Yesilyaprak. "Export Credit Insurance and Export Performance: An Empirical Gravity Analysis for Turkey." International Journal of Economics and Finance 9, no. 8 (July 5, 2017): 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v9n8p12.

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The paper attempts to find out how far Turkey’s official export credit agency, Turk Eximbank, foster export of Turkey during the years of 2000-2015 by employing an empirical trade gravity equation. We estimate different panel gravity regressions for 212 countries for the period of 16 years and the results reveal that a change in export credit insurance positively affect Turkish export, assuming other independent variables are held constant. After applying several post estimation tests we used fixed effect panel specification as the main estimation. In order to allow comparison we also run clustered, robust OLS. Poisson fixed effect (Poisson) and Poisson Pseudo maximum likelihood estimations (PPML) are also estimated to allow for zero trade values in dependent variable in its level. Our analysis also shows that there are significant individual and time effects in panel data structure. Our estimate of different panel gravity regressions for 212 countries and 16 years revealed that increasing export insurance will positively affect Turkish export.
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Egger, Peter, Mario Larch, Kevin E. Staub, and Rainer Winkelmann. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 3, no. 3 (August 1, 2011): 113–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.3.3.113.

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Structural new trade theory models have never been used to evaluate and quantify the role of preferential trade agreement (PTA) membership for trade in a way which is consistent with general equilibrium. Apart from filling this gap, the present paper aims at delivering an empirical model which takes into account both that PTA membership is endogenous and that the world matrix of bilateral trade flows contains numerous zero entries. These features are treated in an encompassing way by means of (possibly two-part) Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation with endogenous binary indicator variables in the empirical model. (JEL F11, F13, F15)
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Peci, Jurgen, and Ana Isabel Sanjuán. "The dual trade impact of non-tariff measures: an empirical assessment of China’s pork imports." European Review of Agricultural Economics 47, no. 5 (April 8, 2020): 1716–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbaa005.

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Abstract Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence suggest that non-tariff measures (NTMs) generate a mixture of trade effects. Using the maximum level of disaggregation provided by the UNCTAD NTMs database (four-digit), and focusing on those measures applied by China in its pork trade, a gravity equation is estimated with the poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. Results confirm both restricting and promoting effects that higher levels of NTM aggregation mask. Compared to the average tariff applied by main importers (9 per cent) and China (14 per cent), the most restrictive NTMs are more stringent, with ad-valorem equivalents between 15 and 33 per cent. Simulations illustrate the upper bound bilateral trade gain from NTM removal and the resulting repercussions for China’s pork import shares.
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Tancangco, Jose Adlai. "How do exchange rates affect the Big One? An empirical analysis of the effect of exchange rates on RCEP exports using the gravity model." Philippine Review of Economics 59, no. 2 (December 2022): 135–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.37907/5erp2202d.

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The often disparate and conflicting effects of exchange rate on bilateral exports reported by previous literature necessitate a further study of the relationship between monetary and trade variables. This study contributes to the stream of literature by analyzing monetary variables such as exchange rate volatility, exchange rate misalignment, exchange rate regimes, and real effective exchange rates with bilateral aggregate exports through a sample of 15 nations comprising the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) region for the years 1996 to 2017 using Ordinary Least Squares and Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood panel fixed effects regression. Results indicate that a country’s real effective exchange rate ratio and the exchange rate volatility for countries under a floating exchange rate regime reduce aggregate exports.
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Balestra, Simone, and Uschi Backes-Gellner. "When a Door Closes, a Window Opens? Long-Term Labor Market Effects of Involuntary Separations." German Economic Review 18, no. 1 (February 1, 2017): 1–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geer.12086.

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Abstract This study estimates the earning losses of workers experiencing an involuntary job separation. We employ, for the first time in the earning losses literature, a Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimator with fixed effects that has several advantages with respect to conventional fixed effects models. The Poisson estimator allows considering the full set of involuntary separations, including those with zero labor market earnings because of unemployment. By including individuals with zero earnings and by using our new method, the loss in the year of separation becomes larger than in previous studies. The loss starts with roughly 30% and, although it quickly shrinks, it remains at around 15% in the following years. In addition, we find that compared to other reasons for separation, the earning loss pattern is unique for involuntary separations, because no other type of separation implies such permanent scarring. This latter finding makes us confident that the self-reported involuntariness of a separation is a reliable source of information.
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Djemmo, Arnaud. "Trade Facilitation and Performance of Manufacturing Exports from Cameroon." Journal of International Business and Economy 14, no. 1 (July 1, 2013): 49–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.51240/jibe.2013.1.3.

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Cameroon’s “Vision 2035” considers the increase of manufacturing exports as the key factor of its “emergence” in 2035. In this context, measures to reduce manufacturing production and export costs should be taken with primary attention to reforms in trade facilitation. We use an augmented gravity model to evaluate the impact of five trade facilitation measures - port efficiency, customs efficiency, regulatory environment, use of ICT and quality of roads - on the performance of the manufacturing exports from Cameroon. Our results confirm the positive role of physical infrastructures on African exports. Using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood to deal with the presence of “zero” in our bilateral trade matrix, we find that port efficiency and quality of roads are the main drivers of trade facilitation in Cameroon.
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Nunnenkamp, Peter, Maximiliano Sosa Andrés, Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati, and Andreas Waldkirch. "What Drives India’s Outward FDI?" South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance 1, no. 2 (December 2012): 245–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2277978712473402.

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We empirically assess the determinants of India’s FDI outflows across a large sample of host countries in the 1996–2009 period. Based on gravity model specifications, we employ Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimators. Major findings include: India’s outward FDI is hardly affected by motives to access raw materials or superior technologies. Market-related factors appear to have dominated the location choices of Indian direct investors. A larger Indian diaspora in the host countries attracts more FDI. Finally, it seems that Indian direct investors are relatively resilient to weak institutions and economic instability in the host countries. However, we do not find robust evidence that India provides an alternative source of FDI for countries that traditional investors tend to avoid.
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Balogh, Jeremiás Máté. "Investigating the effect of geographical distances and cultural proximity on the Hungarian wine trade." Society and Economy 37, no. 4 (December 2015): 513–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/204.2015.37.4.6.

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Wine is a very special product from an economic, cultural, and sociological point of view. Wine culture and wine trade play an important role in Hungary. The effect of cultural and geographical proximity on international trade has already been proven in the international trade literature. The size of bilateral trade flows between any two countries can be approximated by the gravity theory of trade. The gravity model provides empirical evidence of the relationship between the size of the economies, the distances between them, and their trade. This paper seeks to analyse the effect of cultural and geographical proximity on Hungary’s bilateral wine trade between 2000 and 2012, employing the gravity equation. The analysis is based on data from the World Bank WITS, WDI, as well as CEPII, and WTO databases. I apply OLS, Random Effects, Poisson, Pseudo-Poisson-Maximum-Likelihood and Heckman two stage estimators to calculate the gravity regression. The results show that in the case of Hungary, cultural similarity and trade liberalisation have a positive impact, while geographical distance, landlockedness, and contiguity have a negative impact on Hungarian wine exports.
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23

Oliveira, Anselmo Carvalho de, and Talles Girardi de Mendonça. "ANÁLISE HISTÓRICA E ECONOMÉTRICA DOS FLUXOS DAS IMPORTAÇÕES DE BENS DE CAPITAL PELO BRASIL." SINERGIA - Revista do Instituto de Ciências Econômicas, Administrativas e Contábeis 25, no. 1 (December 9, 2020): 9–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.17648/2236-7608-v25n1-9802.

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O presente trabalho analisou os fluxos de importações de bens de capital pelo Brasil. A análise foi operacionalizada através de indicadores descritivos das importações brasileiras do setor entre 1989-2016; e da mensuração, com o modelo gravitacional, dos fatores que dificultaram ou facilitaram essas importações entre 1997-2016. O método utilizado na estimação foi o modelo Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Os resultados mostraram o aumento das importações dos bens de capital para suprir a demanda interna e o crescimento nos déficits comerciais do setor após a abertura da economia na década de 1990. Os resultados da estimação indicaram que o produto interno bruto (PIB) do Brasil e dos parceiros comerciais afetaram as importações brasileiras de bens de capital positivamente. As tarifas e as barreiras técnicas ao comércio afetaram negativamente as importações. O acordo regional prioritário mostrou-se não significativo.
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Cieślik, Andrzej, and Oleg Gurshev. "Determinants of inward FDI in Ukraine: Does political stability matter?" International Journal of Management and Economics 56, no. 3 (September 30, 2020): 243–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2020-0021.

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AbstractThe main goal of this article is to study the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ukraine from 2013 to 2017 that includes the years of armed conflict. We adopt the Knowledge-Capital model as our analytical framework and extend it to include the effects that account for political stability and political regime. The research hypotheses obtained from this framework are verified using the Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood estimation technique and the bilateral panel data on direct investment stocks from 140 partner countries. Our empirical findings show that access to Ukraine's cheap labor force is the primary reason for inward FDI. Moreover, we find no direct relationship between the political events in Ukraine and the investment stock dynamics as the estimated parameters on the indices of democracy, autocracy, polity, and political stability show no statistical significance.
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Ochieng, James, Daniel Abala, and Mary Mbithi. "Infrastructure development, institutions, and intra-regional trade: The case of East Africa." European Journal of Applied Economics 17, no. 2 (2020): 104–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/ejae17-26791.

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This study empirically examines the relationship between infrastructure stock and bilateral trade flows using a panel of 11 countries in East Africa for the period 2000 to 2018. Infrastructure augmented gravity model was estimated using total bilateral exports for the countries in East Africa. Infrastructure was disaggregated into transport and information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructures. Two institutional variables, control of corruption index and regulatory quality, were incorporated in the model. By employing Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator, the results confirm that both ICT and transport infrastructures and quality institutions positively impact on the volumes of total bilateral exports in East Africa. However, ICT infrastructure has a greater impact on trade flows compared to transport infrastructure. Therefore, more resources should be channelled towards increasing the stock of ICT infrastructure to propel trade and regional integration in East Africa.
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Goudail, François. "Performance comparison of pseudo-inverse and maximum-likelihood estimators of Stokes parameters in the presence of Poisson noise for spherical design-based measurement structures." Optics Letters 42, no. 10 (May 3, 2017): 1899. http://dx.doi.org/10.1364/ol.42.001899.

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De Lucena, Andréa Freire, Frederico Teodoro Da Silva, and Edson Roberto Vieira. "Efeito-fronteira em Goiás: uma análise de seus impactos no comércio intranacional e internacional." Redes 25 (December 18, 2020): 2549–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.17058/redes.v25i0.15077.

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O objetivo deste trabalho é explicar o quanto o efeito-fronteira interferiu nas negociações comerciais goianas no ano de 2009. Esse efeito foi estimado empiricamente por meio do estimador Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML), utilizando dados de corte seccional para os 20 principais parceiros comerciais internacionais do Estado de Goiás, mais 26 Unidades Federativas brasileiras. Mesmo que Goiás venha expandindo os produtos comercializados por meio dos incentivos de políticas públicas e por meio da capacidade empreendedora dos agentes econômicos, os resultados encontrados no estudo indicam que os produtos comercializados por Goiás são, em sua maioria, da agroindústria e que o comércio goiano com as Unidades Federativas brasileiras é significativamente maior do que o comércio com regiões internacionais, apontando assim um forte viés doméstico. Para as Unidades Federativas brasileiras que dividem fronteiras com Goiás, os resultados dão pistas de que o comércio é, em média, maior do que com as demais.
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Islam, Md Shariful, Md Ziaul Haque, Syed Nazrul Islam, Md Mahbubul Alam, and Abir Hassan. "Export Enhancing Effects of Information and Communication Technologies: Evidence from Bangladesh." Asian Journal of Empirical Research 12, no. 2 (June 14, 2022): 69–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.55493/5004.v12i2.4515.

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The study examines the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on bilateral export flows from Bangladesh to its trading partners based on an augmented panel gravity model. It includes 108 importers of Bangladeshi goods. The sample period extends from 2000 to 2018. Primarily, we employ Pooled Ordinary Least Square (POLS) model, and we utilize Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) as an alternative estimation technique to check robustness. The findings from the OLS model indicate that ICT has positive and significant effects on Bangladesh’s bilateral export. The results from PPML also support the findings from the OLS model. Therefore, the results come out to be robust. These findings imply that by reducing trade-related costs e. g., shipping costs, market access costs, and communication and information costs, ICT growth in Bangladesh as well as in its trading partner countries enhances trade flows and therefore has a trade-boosting effect.
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Karkanis, Dimitrios, Evgenia Anastasiou, Konstantina Ragazou, and Marie Noëlle Duquenne. "Asylum Flows in the EU Context: Lessons from Gravity." Migration Letters 19, no. 2 (March 7, 2022): 123–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.33182/ml.v19i2.1605.

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The present paper aims to identify the impact of geographical, institutional, and sociopolitical factors as regards the magnitude and the direction of asylum seekers in the European Union between 2000 and 2018. The approach is based on the application of gravity model using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimators. The analysis incorporates a set of institutional variables, in order to assess the impact of the gradual EU enlargement process as well as the differentiated policies on granting asylum among the EU members. The strong presence of refugees in destination countries can be interpreted as an indication of various favorable conditions for granting asylum to persons of the same nationality. The results suggest that the role of migration networks tends to substitute the lack of an integrated EU immigration policy. Finally, either in geographical or institutional terms, E.U. appears as a non-homogeneous space for asylum seekers.
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Alaamshani, Imad Kareem, Hanny Zurina Hamzah, Shivee Ranjanee Kaliappan, and Normaz Wana Ismail. "Effects of Trade Facilitation on Trade Costs in Developed and Developing Countries: PPML Analysis." Jurnal Institutions and Economies 14, no. 2 (April 1, 2022): 31–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.22452/ijie.vol14no2.2.

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Trade facilitation reduces trade costs and eases the movement of goods and services. Studies have shown that trade flows increased by improving the trade facilitation process and reducing trade costs. The study aims to estimate the effects of trade facilitation enhancement on trade costs in 111 developed and developing countries over the 2008 to 2014 period using the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator. The findings show that trade facilitation components such as border administration, business environment and transport and communication infrastructure reduce trade costs. This trade facilitation should have helped alleviate the effects of the financial recession and eased world trade recovery. On the other hand, the study finds that additional market access increases trade costs. The most important finding is that the effectiveness of trade facilitation is higher when more countries engage in trade and when those countries are together participating in trade facilitation.
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Hoang, Nhan Thanh Thi, Hoan Quang Truong, and Chung Van Dong. "Determinants of Trade Between Taiwan and ASEAN Countries: A PPML Estimator Approach." SAGE Open 10, no. 2 (April 2020): 215824402091951. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2158244020919516.

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Taiwan and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) do not have any diplomatic ties, but they have enjoyed significantly economic benefits, especially bilateral investment and trade cooperation. Over the period 2000–2017, trade between Taiwan and ASEAN had significantly focused on manufactured goods embodied with high-skill and technology-intensive content. Using gravity model with a PPML (Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood) estimator, this article explores determinants of bilateral trade flows between them at both aggregate and sectoral levels. We found that economic scale and per capital income of ASEAN have much stronger effects than those of Taiwan at both aggregate trade and the degree of manufacturing. Results also show that bilateral trade between Taiwan and ASEAN has been efficiently performed over recent decades, except for cases of Myanmar and Cambodia. Hence, a dynamic approach should be taken by both sides to promote bilateral trade relations in future.
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Montant, Gil. "The determinants of the hotel sector revenues: The case of French Polynesia." Tourism Economics 26, no. 5 (July 17, 2019): 809–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1354816619863253.

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This article is an empirical analysis focused on the hotel sector in French Polynesia in 2007–2017. One assesses the impact of a set of variables on the French Polynesian hotel sector monthly revenues through a gravity model. First, one specifies a basic model that embeds several potential explanatory variables (the exchange rate (both nominal and real), the rate of unemployment, the geographical distance, some specific historical events, etc.). Next, a second model is specified so as to assess the impact of hotel capacities measured by the number of bedrooms offered. Estimates rest on an unbalanced monthly panel database that embeds main countries from where tourists present in French Polynesia are originated. In order to compare results, each specification is estimated by two methods: classical panel regression (Ordinary least squares /Generalized least squares) and pseudo Poisson maximum likelihood. Both methods lead to coherent results.
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Kang, Sung Jin, and Sun Lee. "Impacts of Environmental Policies on Global Green Trade." Sustainability 13, no. 3 (February 1, 2021): 1517. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13031517.

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The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of environmental policies on bilateral green exports among developed and developing countries. The empirical analysis was based on the fixed-effects gravity model estimation with the PPML (Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood) for bilateral green trade of world countries for 1990–2019. This study focused on two proxy environmental policy indicators: environment-related tax and energy intensity. The major findings were that, first, promotion of environment-related tax increases green exports among HIC (high-income countries) and, second, an increase in the green trade of a country depends on the energy intensity level of its trading partner countries in order to stabilize domestic demand and production. This result is shown to be significant and consistent within the trade between the same income groups. Thus, supporting the green growth strategy, empirical results suggest that LMY (low- and middle-income) countries have to promote environmental policies and green production processes to be competitive in the global market.
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Dwi Haryanto, Rossanto, Yessi Rahmawati, Omar Guillermo Rojas Altamirano, Salsabila Fahar Ahsani, Adrianus Kabubu Hudang, and Tri Haryanto. "An Empirical Investigation between FDI, Tourism, and Trade on CO2 Emission in Asia: Testing Environmental Kuznet Curve and Pollution Haven Hypothesis." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 12, no. 4 (July 19, 2022): 385–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13242.

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This study aims to analyze the influence of foreign direct investment, tourism, exports, and imports on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the High-Income State, Upper-Middle Income, and Lower-Middle-Middle Income in Asia during the period of 2010 to 2019. This study uses the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method. The results of this study indicate that Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis (EKC) is valid in the country of High Income and Upper-Middle Income. In addition, there is a non-linear relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), tourism, Export, and imports on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The interaction variables, which are a foreign direct investment with tourism and foreign direct investment with Export. Each of them is reducing carbon dioxide emissions only in high-income countries. Meanwhile, the interaction variables between foreign direct investment and imports reduce carbon dioxide emissions in high-income countries. However, it increases the carbon dioxide emissions in the upper-middle-income country
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Abdullahi, Nazir Muhammad, Qiangqiang Zhang, Saleh Shahriar, Muhammad Saqib Irshad, Abdullahi Bala Ado, and Xuexi Huo. "Examining the determinants and efficiency of China’s agricultural exports using a stochastic frontier gravity model." PLOS ONE 17, no. 9 (September 9, 2022): e0274187. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0274187.

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This paper aims to examine the key determinants and efficiency of China’s agricultural exports with its 114 importing countries by applying the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) on an augmented gravity model for the period of 2000–2019. The Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and the fixed effect models were also estimated simultaneously to confirm the robustness of our findings. The results reveal that China’s economic size (GDP) and its importing countries, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), common border, and the Chinese language positively determine China’s agricultural export flows. The results, on the other hand, also reveal that China’s agricultural export is adversely influenced by the income (per capita GDP) of China and its trade partners, currency depreciation, distance, and landlocked. On an average account, China has untapped the potential of 51% in its agriculture export with the countries used in this study. We provide policy suggestions as part of our study.
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Abdullahi, Nazir Muhammad, Xuexi Huo, Qiangqiang Zhang, and Aminah Bolanle Azeez. "Determinants and Potential of Agri-Food Trade Using the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria." SAGE Open 11, no. 4 (October 2021): 215824402110657. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/21582440211065770.

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Considering the importance of agri-food exports for Nigeria in the face of dwindling revenue from its oil exports. Therefore, this study provides empirical insights on the determinants and potential of agri-food exports from Nigeria to 70 major trading countries between 1995 and 2019 by applying a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) on a gravity model. We also estimate a variety of techniques, including the fixed effects, Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML), and Heckman models to confirm the robustness of our results. We show that the economic size (GDP) of Nigeria and its trading countries, importers’ population, EU membership, ECOWAS membership and contiguity stimulate agri-food export. Also, we show that bilateral distance, domestic population, exchange rate, language, and landlocked adversely affect agri-food exports. The potential for agri-food trade expansion exists with mostly world biggest economies (including China, the USA, Brazil, India, Russia, Japan, and EU countries) and Nigeria’s border countries. Policy directions for agri-food export expansion are provided.
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Mehmood, Bilal, Azka Arif Malik, and Rabia Khalid. "ICT Augmented Gravity Model Application: Sector Level Analysis of the Asia-Pacific Region." Revista Digital Mundo Asia Pacífico 10, no. 18 (July 2021): 43–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.17230/map.v10.i18.03.

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The use of information and communication technologies (ICT) in commerce improves the commercial structure and economic capacity of a country. This study empirically assesses the impact of ICTs on international trade in 36 countries in Asia and the Pacific, at the sectoral level, between 2007 and 2018. The study evaluates whether ICTs improve international trade by hiring the gravity model of international trade and increasing it with the ICT variable. An ICT development indicator (IDI) is formed by joining seven different ICT variables that show ICT infrastructure, use, and skills. Using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation technique, this study shows that ICTs improve trade by reducing transaction costs. The findings reveal that information and communication technology positively and significantly influence international trade in all sectors of the Asia-Pacific region, and that trade intensifies when both trading partners have a high endowment of information and communications technology. The study recommends that governments in developing countries upgrade their ICT infrastructure levels.
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Rahman, Imran Ur, Mohsin Shafi, Liu Junrong, Enitilina Tatiani M. K. Fetuu, Shah Fahad, and Buddhi Prasad Sharma. "Infrastructure and Trade: An Empirical Study Based on China and Selected Asian Economies." SAGE Open 11, no. 3 (July 2021): 215824402110360. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/21582440211036082.

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We empirically determine the role of different forms of infrastructure on a country’s trade. We use an augmented gravity model that incorporates infrastructure in the estimation of merchandise trade flows. We take panel data, including China and 21 selected Asian economies, from 1999 to 2018. We find that the panel ordinary least squares (OLS) and poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) model estimations prove to be significant. Proxies for Transport Infrastructure including roads, railways, and sea transport, and Proxies for information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure consisting of mobile, electricity, and internet connections show a strong and positive impact on trade while air transport and landline phone connection have an unexpected negative effect on trade. The positive estimates for quality of infrastructure signify that high standards of Transport and ICT infrastructures lead to increased trade flows of the exporting and importing countries. Results also show that cultural similarity leads to increased trade flows between China and its trading partners in Asia.
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Manyara, Geoffrey, and Laura Naliaka. "Tourism and Trade Nexus in Africa: A Gravity Model Approach." African Journal of Hospitality, Tourism and Leisure, no. 10(3) (June 30, 2021): 793–804. http://dx.doi.org/10.46222/ajhtl.19770720-132.

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The tourism industry is now an important economic sector in Africa. However, as with trade, Africa’s global share of the tourism industry is quite small, which could be attributed to a similarly low level of both intra-regional trade and tourism. Prevailing data and studies suggest that there is a relationship between tourism and trade. The aim of this study, therefore, is to examine the empirical link between tourism and exports in Africa for the period 2006 to 2015. We estimate a structural gravity model using the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator that allows for bilateral zero trade values between trading partners, controls for heteroskedasticity and addresses the potential endogeneity. We find that a 10 percent increase in intra-African tourism boosts the continental exports by between 1.4 and 3.2 percent. These results strongly posit that boosting regional tourism could be instrumental in catalysing intra-African trade, especially within the context of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
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40

Ugalde-Hernández, Oscar. "Determinants of Costa Rica's International Trade of Wastes and Its Relationship with the Circular Economy." Relaciones Internacionales 94, no. 1 (May 26, 2021): 125–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.15359/ri.94-1.6.

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As the circular economy has evolved into a new development model, international trade of wastes, scraps, and residues has grown with significant relevance in this new century. Costa Rica represented less than 0.1 percent of the total amount of world waste exports by the end of 2020, however; it can make a transition to a circular economy through this international trade trend. This article explores the determinants that propel Costa Rica to participate in this type of international trade. Through the application of a Poisson pseudo maximum-likelihood gravity model with a 2018 cross-sectional database of 47 countries, it is determined that Gross Domestic Product of importing countries, their population sizes, their services sectors’ size in terms of GDP, as well as their environmental performance, are all significant determinants. Trade of wastes should not be a form of exporting problems to other nations, but a means to take the local circular economy to a global scale.
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Brkić, Snježana, Radovan Kastratović, and Mirela Abidović Salkica. "Analysis of Intra-Industry Trade in Agri-Food Products Between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the European Union." South East European Journal of Economics and Business 16, no. 2 (December 1, 2021): 53–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2021-0014.

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Abstract Although research of intra-industry trade (IIT) has been intensive in the last several decades, the empirical literature focusing on this phenomenon in the Western Balkans countries remains limited, especially in agricultural sector. Aiming to contribute to the existing literature, the paper analyses patterns and country-specific determinants of IIT in agri-food products between Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and the European Union (EU) during the period of their mutual trade liberalisation (2008-2018). The analysis employs Grubel-Lloyd indices and Greenaway-Hine-Milner methodology for measurement of IIT, and applies an econometric panel data model using a Poisson Pseudo-maximum likelihood approach in order to estimate effects of IIT determinants. The findings suggest that intra-industry agri-food trade of BiH with the EU is of low intensity and mainly of vertical nature, viewed totally and bilaterally. We found significant positive effects of trading countries’ sizes, common border and history on IIT, and negative effects of the geographic distance and differences in agricultural productivity.
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42

Freire de Lucena, Andréa, Caroline Ferreira de Oliveira, and Edson Roberto Vieira. "Disputas comerciais entre países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento no Órgão de Solução de Controvérsias da Organização Mundial do Comércio." Brazilian Journal of International Relations 10, no. 3 (December 30, 2021): 555–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.36311/2237-7743.2021.v10n3.p555-577.

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O Órgão de Solução de Controvérsias (OSC) da Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC) tem tido papel relevante no equilíbrio do comércio global, devido à sua finalidade de contribuir para a fluidez do comércio internacional, dentro de um contexto caracterizado pela desigualdade econômica e social dos países, que incentiva as disputas comerciais. O objetivo do artigo é verificar se as relações de poder existentes entre os países desenvolvidos, em desenvolvimento e de menor desenvolvimento, no âmbito da organização, influenciaram o comércio bilateral entre os países que participaram de um contencioso comercial no período 2005-2017. A pesquisa fez uso do método Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML), com dados de 124 países membros da OMC, para estimar uma equação gravitacional. Os resultados mostram que, em meio a uma realidade de interdependência entre os países, a assimetria das relações faz com que os países que possuem maior poder econômico tenham influência para aumentar seus benefícios nas relações comerciais entre as partes.
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Drapkin, Igor, Sergey Lukyanov, and Vadim Shelkovnikov. "The institutional determinants of outward foreign direct investment." Acta Oeconomica 72, no. 3 (September 21, 2022): 309–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/032.2022.00024.

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Abstract This study focuses on the influence of institution quality on foreign direct investment (FDI) outflows. For empirical estimation, we use a dataset covering 102 home and 67 host countries from 2001 to 2016. We use the gravity approach and apply the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method to derive unbiased estimates. A set of institutional variables in a country is integrated into a single institutional index using principal component analysis. Our main findings are the following. First, we only identify a positive influence of the level of institutional development on FDI outflows for the institutionally developed countries. Second, we have not found evidence for crowding out national investment in the countries with weak institutions. Third, increases in the level of institutions stimulate horizontal rather than vertical outward FDI in an economy. Finally, institutional distance negatively affects the level of outward FDI only when the institutional distance between the two countries is large. The policy implications of this research are strongly in favour of further developing institutions.
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44

Azu, Nnanna P., Benedette Nneka Okezie, and Amatus Hirwa. "Gravity Perspective of Trade Realignment: Assessing China’s Engagement in West Africa." Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 11, no. 3 (September 2019): 165–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0974910119887055.

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This article examines the impact of emerging West African trade partners—China and India with respect to the traditional trade partners. In this regard, we augmented the gravity model and used dummy to capture bilateral trade effects. This allowed trade to be represented from both sides of its occurrence—import and export—while also accounting for the percentage increase as well as the volume of trade. Applying poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) technique, we observed a growth in the coefficient of emerging trading partners concerning China in the import direction and India in the export direction, while that of the traditional trade partners remained positive but decreasing. Therefore, West Africa is witnessing a partial and imperfect realignment of trade with China, predominantly on import. As China continues to provide better prices and aids for trade, merchandise trade activities with the traditional partners may start to negatively impact when competing with emerging China.
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45

Valei, Azamat, and Suleiman Mamman. "Does Institutional Quality Matter for International Migrants in Their Home and Host Country? A Case of Russian Federation." Spatial Economics 18, no. 3 (2022): 42–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2022.3.042-062.

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Poor institutions have been identified to hinder economic growth and development, with negative social and economic effects such as skilled human resource emigration. In a resource-rich economy, a poor institutional framework has been stated to be a key cause of resource curse. The current study used the CIS and other bordering countries to investigate the impact of both home and destination country institutional quality on migration flows to the Russian Federation. Is the Quality of Institutions (Origin and Host Countries) Important in Migration? The study demonstrated that institutional quality matters for migration from surrounding countries using a gravity-based model estimated using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Population, unemployment, and GDP per capita were identified as push factors. In addition, the study discovered a correlation between the institutional quality of the host country and the inward migration flow. Therefore, the study recommends enhancing the institutional quality of the host country to increase the positive effects of inward migration flow
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46

MCHANI, SIBULELE. "impact of regional trade agreements on bilateral trade flows: A Systemic Literature Review." Competitio 21, no. 1-2 (December 2, 2022): 119–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.21845/comp/2022/1-2/3.

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This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of regional trade agreements on trade. The empirical literature is arranged based on the econometricmethods used to estimate the gravity model. Advantages and disadvantages of each method were highlighted. Papers covering RTAs from Africa, Asia, the Americas, and Europe were reviewed to gain a more representative understanding. The covered empirical literature suggests that the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator is more reliable than OLS in estimating gravity models, as it can deal with zero trade flows. The Fixed Effects (FE) approach produces more consistent estimates than the Random Effects (RE) approach when quantifying the effects of RTAs. This is because it allows one to control for the unobserved time-invariant variables. Surprisingly, the covered literature suggests that a great majority of African RTAs generated trade, regardless of the method of estimation used. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: F13, F15
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47

Monteiro da Silva, Orlando, and Felipe D. Gomes Moreira. "DIFERENTES SETORES E ACORDOS REGIONAIS: EFEITOS NO COMÉRCIO INTERNACIONAL." Revista de Economia e Agronegócio 16, no. 3 (March 6, 2019): 327–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.25070/rea.v16i3.7891.

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RESUMO: Este artigo teve como objetivo analisar os fluxos bilaterais do comércio total, de produtos manufaturados e agrícolas, de 47 parceiros comerciais do Brasil, no período 1995-2015. Foram testados diferentes intervalos nos dados, e estimados os efeitos sobre os fluxos de comércio de diferentes Acordos Regionais de Comércio, das tarifas e de medidas não tarifárias. Fez-se uso do modelo gravitacional com dados em painel, estimado pelo método Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood, com efeitos fixos. Os resultados mostraram que a utilização de intervalos para os fluxos de comércio não apresentou diferenças nas equações estimadas sem os intervalos. Todos os ARC mostraram criação de comércio e, desvios de exportação para o comércio de produtos do setor agrícola. Contudo, ficou claro o menor efeito desse desvio no MERCOSUL, assim como a inexistência de desvios de comércio para produtos manufaturados, com exceção do Pacto Andino, o que reflete a competitividade específica desses setores em cada ARC. Os efeitos protecionistas das medidas não tarifárias mostraram-se maiores do que as tarifárias e com maior intensidade para os produtos agrícolas.
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Dal Bianco, Andrea, Maria J. Estrella-Orrego, Vasco L. Boatto, and Alejandro J. Gennari. "Is Mercosur promoting trade? Insights from Argentinean wine exports." Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research 15, no. 1 (April 20, 2017): e0108. http://dx.doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2017151-9270.

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As a consequence of the rapid and significative decrease in domestic demand, to avoid structural surplus traditional wine producing countries have been forced to export a growing share of their wine production. This article empirically investigates Argentinean trade policy on the wine sector over the last years, in order to understand its effect on export flows. An expanded gravity model was estimated through a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator, in order to account for heteroskedasticity. The data used refer to Argentinean exports of bottled wine to all main world importers during the period 1997-2010, and account for more than 90% of total trade flows. Our results show that Mercosur membership has promoted Argentinean wine exports to other Latin American countries, but may as a whole have been counter-productive. A more open trade policy could increase Argentinean bottled wine exports by more than 5.8%. In addition, given the rise in wine importation and consumption in countries with high tariff barriers, such as China, the small number of free trade agreements could penalize Argentinean exports even more in the future.
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Olayiwola, Wumi Kolawole, and Felix Fofana N’Zué. "The China–US Trade Dispute: Economic Implications for the ECOWAS Region." Global Trade and Customs Journal 15, Issue 11/12 (November 1, 2020): 609–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.54648/gtcj2020098.

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The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region, which is highly dependent on bilateral trade with the United States and China, will be affected by the trade dispute between the two countries. We analysed the implications of the trade dispute on ECOWAS bilateral trade with the two countries with an emphasis on trade in agricultural raw materials, mineral products, and consumer goods. Using historical data of fifteen ECOWAS countries, the study employed Instrumental Variables, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV). Techniques to show that trade dispute could lead to a fall in exports of agricultural raw materials and mineral products to the United States, but an increase in exports to China. In the case of exports of consumer goods, the trade dispute could lead to a reduction in the ECOWAS’ exports to both the United States and China. The region’s economic diplomacy should promote the interests of its Member States while responding to the needs of the two countries.
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Lu, Yue, Linghui Wu, and Ka Zeng. "Economic Policy Uncertainty, Bilateral Investment Treaties, and Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment." Pacific Affairs 94, no. 3 (September 1, 2021): 519–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5509/2021943519.

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This paper examines the effect of bilateral investment treaties (BITs) in promoting Chinese outward foreign direct investment (COFDI) in the presence of rising economic policy uncertainty in China's partner countries. We postulate that the signing of BITs should help stimulate COFDI because the treaties send a credible signal to foreign investors about the host country's intent to protect Chinese investment, and make it more difficult for the host country to violate its treaty obligations. BITs that contain rigorous investment protection and liberalization provisions, in particular, should be more likely to encourage COFDI as they directly influence Chinese investors' expectations about the stability, predictability, and security of the host market. However, while BITs generally promote COFDI, host country economic policy uncertainty may also limit their effectiveness. This is because uncertainty tends to undermine investor confidence, trigger capital flows from high- to low-risk countries, and dampen commercial activities. Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation models of the determinants of COFDI to 188 countries between 2003 and 2017 lend substantial support to our conjectures.
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