Academic literature on the topic 'Projections (2020)'

Abstract. West Java Province is one of the largest provinces in Indonesia. Naturally, the population factor is one of the supports in terms of development. The confusion of a number of population data from various Ministries and Institutions become one of the causes of the non-optimal implementation of government policies. Therefore, this thesis will discuss the calculation of error evaluation population projections carried out using the projection method and projecting from the results of population projections to improve data accuracy which exists. The method used as a benchmark for calculating projections is mathematical method, component method and mixed method. The three methods this results in population projections for year t from the total population aspect, gender and age grouping. After the population projections are obtained, then see how much error the projection value is. In this problem, MALPE and MAPE are in charge of this projection error evaluation technique. There are 3 aspects that become a reference in the calculation of the projected evaluation, namely: other factors are fertility mortality and mobility. Assumption of fertility is measured from the numerical value birth age group (ASFR) and total fertility (TFR). Assumption of mortality what is seen is a table of 24 death levels, while the assumption of mobility or migration is seen from the ASNMR (Age Specific Net Migration Rate) number. Obtained the smallest error value by the MAPE technique is 5.4 in the component method that carried out by BPS and the projection results for West Java Province are 51,338,337 million souls with the component method. Abstrak. Provinsi Jawa Barat merupakan salah satu provinsi terbesar di Indonesia. Tentunya, dalam faktor penduduk menjadi salah satu penunjang dalam hal pembangunan. Kesimpangsiuran sejumlah data penduduk dari berbagai Kementerian dan Lembaga menjadi salah satu penyebab tidak optimalnya pelaksanaan kebijakan pemerintah. Oleh karena itu, skripsi ini akan dibahas mengenai perhitungan evaluasi kesalahan proyeksi penduduk yang dilakukan menggunakan metode proyeksi serta memproyeksikan dari hasil proyeksi penduduk guna memperbaiki keakuratan data yang ada. Metode yang digunakan sebagai tolak ukur menghitung proyeksi adalah metode matematik, metode komponen dan metode campuran. Ketiga metode tersebut menghasilkan proyeksi penduduk tahun ke t dari aspek total penduduk, jenis kelamin dan pengelompokan umur. Setelah proyeksi penduduk diperoleh, selanjutnya dilihat berapa besar kesalahan nilai proyeksi. Pada permasalahan ini, MALPE dan MAPE yang bertugas dalam teknik evaluasi kesalahan proyeksi ini. Terdapat 3 aspek yang menjadi acuan dalam perhitungan evaluasi proyeksi, antara lain fertilitas, mortalitas dan mobilitas. Asumsi fertalitas diukur dari nilai angka kelahiran kelompok umur (ASFR) dan total fertilitas (TFR). Asumsi mortalitas yang dilihat adalah tabel level kematian 24, sedangkan asumsi mobilitas atau migrasi dilihat dari angka ASNMR (Age Specific Net Migration Rate). Didapatkan nilai kesalahan terkecil oleh teknik MAPE sebesar 5,4 pada metode komponen yang dilakukan BPS dan hasil proyeksi untuk Provinsi Jawa Barat sebanyak 51.338.337 juta jiwa dengan metode komponen.

Abstract This article presents a series of projections for religious communities worldwide from 2020 to 2050. It offers details related to the projection methodology used to generate the estimates and comments on trends and patterns among Christians, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, agnostics, and atheists. It concludes with suggestions on how such projections might be improved in the future.

ABSTRACTBeing able to anticipate future needs for health services presents a challenge for health planners. Using existing population projections, two models are presented to estimate the demand for hospital beds in regions of Manitoba in 2020. The first, a current-use projection model, simply projects the average use for a recent three-year period into the future. The second, a 10-year trend analysis, uses Poisson regression to project future demand. The current-use projection suggests a substantial increase in the demand for hospital beds, while the trend analysis projects a decline. The last projections are consistent with ongoing increases in rates of day surgeries and declines in lengths of stay. The current-use projections need to be considered in the context of relatively low occupancy rates in rural hospitals and previous research on appropriateness of stays in acute care hospitals. If measures are taken to ensure more appropriate use of acute care hospital beds in the future, then the current-use projections of bed shortages are not a cause for concern.

The purpose of this study is to create projections of the population in West Java Province in the period of 2025-2035. The method used in this research is a mixed method which is a combination of the Mathematical Method and the Component Method. The Mathematical Method is used to make projections of the total population, while the Component Method is used to make projections of the total population and population per age group. Using basic population data from the 2020 Population Census, the projection of the population of West Java in 2025, 2030, and 2035 is 51,117,160 people, 54,127,589 people, and 57,315,311 people, respectively.Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk membuat proyeksi penduduk Jawa Barat tahun 2025-2035. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode campuran yang merupakan gabungan Metode Matematik dan Metode Komponen. Metode Matematik digunakan untuk membuat proyeksi total penduduk, sedangkan Metode Komponen digunakan untuk membuat proyeksi total penduduk dan penduduk per kelompok umur. Dengan menggunakan data dasar jumlah penduduk hasil sensus penduduk 2020, diperoleh proyeksi penduduk Jawa Barat tahun 2025, tahun 2030, dan tahun 2035, berturut-turut adalah 51.117.160 orang, 54.127.589 orang, dan 57.315.311 orang.

Abstract. Projections of Indonesia's population in 2010 have been made, including by Sucipto and Tukiran (1992), BPS (2002), Nurwindiagiri (2004), Karyana (2004) and BPS, BAPPENAS and UNFPA (2018). However, because the basic population data and/or assumptions used for the projections are different, the results are also different, and when compared with the results of the 2020 Population Census (SP 2020), none of them are the same. In the period 1971-1980 the population growth rate (LPP) reached 3.2% per year, decreased to 1.97% per year in the period 1980-1990 and to 1.5% per year in the period 1990-2000. However, in the period 2000-2010 it did not decrease, but remained at 1.5% per year. BPS has released the 2020 Population Census Portrait that in the 2010-2020 period there is a population growth rate per year, namely LPP = 1.25% with a population of 270.20 million people. In this thesis, a projection of the Indonesian population until 2060 will be made using the basic data from the 2020 Population Census assuming the LPP population growth rate = 1.25% (BPS, 2020) and using the Mixed Method. The results of the projection of the Indonesian population using the Mixed Method where the population is obtained from the Mathematical Method and the age group section is obtained through the Component Method with basic data from the 2020 Population Census and the assumption of an LPP population growth rate of 1.25% in 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055 and 2060 respectively are 287519166, 305944013, 325549565, 346411482, 368610276, 392231616, 417366663, 444112417 people. Abstrak. Proyeksi penduduk Indonesia tahun 2010 telah dibuat, di antaranya oleh Sucipto dan Tukiran (1992), BPS (2002), Nurwindiagiri (2004), Karyana (2004) dan BPS, BAPPENAS dan UNFPA (2018). Namun karena data dasar penduduk dan atau asumsi yang digunakan untuk proyeksi berbeda, maka hasilnya berbeda pula, dan apabila dibandingkan dengan hasil Sensus Penduduk 2020 (SP 2020) tidak ada yang sama. Pada periode tahun 1971-1980 laju pertumbuhan penduduk (LPP) mencapai 3,2 % per tahun turun menjadi 1,97 % per tahun pada periode 1980-1990 dan menjadi 1,5 % per tahun pada periode 1990-2000. Namun pada periode 2000-2010 tidak turun, tetapi tetap sebesar 1,5 % per tahun. BPS telah merilis Potret Sensus Penduduk 2020 bahwa pada periode tahun 2010-2020 terjadi laju pertumbuhan penduduk per tahun yaitu LPP = 1,25 % dengan jumlah penduduk 270,20 juta orang. Dalam skripsi ini akan dibuat proyeksi penduduk Indonesia sampai tahun 2060 menggunakan data dasar hasil Sensus Penduduk 2020 dengan asumsi laju pertumbuhan penduduk LPP = 1,25 % (BPS, 2020) serta menggunakan Metode Campuran. Hasil proyeksi penduduk Indonesia menggunakan Metode Campuran yang mana jumlah penduduk diperoleh dari Metode Matematik dan bagian kelompok umur didapatkan melalui Metode Komponen dengan data dasar hasil Sensus Penduduk tahun 2020 dan asumsi laju pertumbuhan penduduk LPP sebesar 1,25% pada tahun 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055 dan tahun 2060 berturut-turut adalah 287519166, 305944013, 325549565, 346411482, 368610276, 392231616, 417366663, 444112417 orang.

Abstract. Analyzing a given map to identify its projection and other geometrical properties has long been an important aspect of cartographic analysis. If explicit information about the projection used in a particular map is not available, the properties of the cartographic transformation can sometimes be reconstructed from the map image. However, such a process of projection analysis requires significant manual labor and oversight.For digital maps, we usually expect the projection from geographic space to map space to have been calculated by a computer program. Such a program can be expected to contain the implementation of the mathematical rules of the projection and subsequent coordinate transformations such as translation and scaling. The program code, therefore, contains information that would allow an analyst to reliably identify map projections and other geometrical transformations applied to the input data.In the case of interactive online maps, the code generating the map is in fact delivered to the map user and could be used for cartographic analysis. The core idea of our novel method proposed for map analysis is to apply reverse engineering techniques on the code implementing the cartographic transformations in order to retrieve the properties of the applied map projection. However, automatic reasoning about computer code by way of static analysis (analyzing the source code without running it) is provably limited – for example, the code delivered to the map user may contain a whole library of different map projections, of which only a specific one may be actually used at runtime. Instead, we propose a dynamic analysis approach to observe and monitor the operations performed by the code as the program runs, and to retrieve the mathematical operations that have been used to calculate the coordinates of every graphical element on the map.The presented method produces, for every graphical element of the map, a transformation graph consisting of low-level mathematical operations. Cartographic projections can be identified as distinctive patterns in the transformation graph, and can be distinguished in a fully automatic way by matching a set of predefined patterns against a particular graph.Projections vary widely in their arithmetic structure, and therefore by the structure of the corresponding transformation graphs extracted from program code. Some projections can be computed directly using continuous equations involving trigonometric functions. Other projections involve solving nonlinear equations, which need to be solved by approximation. Composite projections use different projections depending on some threshold value. Yet other projections, such as the Robinson projection, define a table of predefined values, between which interpolation is used etc.. In each of these cases, we expect to find the operations corresponding to the mathematical structure of the projection in the transformation graph extracted by the presented method.For verifying the method, we have implemented the patterns of several well-known cartographic projections based on the literature and have used it on the transformation graphs extracted from a variety of sample programs. To ensure a diversity of implementations, we have evaluated programs using different and independent JavaScript implementations of projections, including the open source libraries D3.js, proj4js, Leaflet, OpenLayers, and informal implementations of example programs found online. For these case studies, we could successfully identify many projections based on identifying patterns in the transformation graph in a fully automated, unsupervised manner.In the future, the proposed method may be further developed for many innovative application scenarios, such as building a “cartographic search engine” or constructing novel tools for semi-automatic cartographic analysis and review.

The Commission on Map Projections (CoMP) of the International Cartographic Association (ICA) was chartered and began aсting in 2003. The Commission has been active in promoting and distributing map projections research, education, and knowledge through its individual members, conferences and workshops of the ICA. Among the developments of the CoMP there are published papers of the workshops, conference sessions at the International Cartographic Conferences, and other international conferences in cartography and geoinformation. The CoMP has developed and maintained a public website with tutorial information on map projections, published research, decision systems to help in projection selection, news and announcements of the events, and an archive of the Commission’s activities. Among the publications of the CoMP there are research papers, conference proceedings, book chapters, and a book on Choosing a Map Projection. The CoMP are going to continue research and education activities, workshops, conferences, and publications to advance map projections with the 2019 to 2023 term.

BackgroundHealth human resources continue to emerge as a critical health policy issue across the United States.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the United States into 2020.DesignA traditional stock-and-flow methodology or model was developed and populated with publicly available data to produce estimates of supply and demand for physical therapists by 2020.MethodsSupply was determined by adding the estimated number of physical therapists and the approximation of new graduates to the number of physical therapists who immigrated, minus US graduates who never passed the licensure examination, and an estimated attrition rate in any given year. Demand was determined by using projected US population with health care insurance multiplied by a demand ratio in any given year. The difference between projected supply and demand represented a shortage or surplus of physical therapists.ResultsThree separate projection models were developed based on best available data in the years 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. Based on these projections, demand for physical therapists in the United States outstrips supply under most assumptions.LimitationsWorkforce projection methodology research is based on assumptions using imperfect data; therefore, the results must be interpreted in terms of overall trends rather than as precise actuarial data–generated absolute numbers from specified forecasting.ConclusionsOutcomes of this projection study provide a foundation for discussion and debate regarding the most effective and efficient ways to influence supply-side variables so as to position physical therapists to meet current and future population demand. Attrition rates or permanent exits out of the profession can have important supply-side effects and appear to have an effect on predicting future shortage or surplus of physical therapists.

In this paper, we study the split feasibility problem in Banach spaces. At first, we prove that a solution of this problem is a solution of the equivalent equation defined by using a metric projection, a generalized projection, and sunny generalized nonexpansive retraction, respectively. Then, using the hybrid method with these projections, we prove strong convergence theorems in mathematical programing in order to find a solution of the split feasibility problem in Banach spaces.

Daily fantasy sports (DFS) has grown in popularity with millions of participants throughout the world. However, studies have shown that most profits from DFS contests are won by only a small percentage of players. This thesis addresses the challenges faced by DFS participants by evaluating sources that provide player projections for NBA DFS contests and by developing machine learning models that produce competitive player projections. External sources are evaluated by constructing daily lineups based on the projections offered and evaluating those lineups in the context of all potential lineups, as well as those submitted by participants in competitive FanDuel DFS tournaments. Lineups produced by the machine learning models are also evaluated in the same manner. This work experiments with several machine learning techniques including automated machine learning and notes the top model developed was successful in 48% of all FanDuel NBA DFS tournaments and 51% of single-entry tournaments over a two-month period, surpassing the top external source evaluated by 9 percentage points and 10 percentage points, respectively.

There is an abundance of reports and articles on the extent of future bioenergy usage. Decision-makers might turn to bioenergy projections in hopes of making informed decisions for policies or investments. This report aims to highlight irregularities and differences regarding calculations and results in 15 global bioenergy projection studies for the year 2050, and to find underlying connections by applying a metaanalysis with a methodological focus. Statistical distributions were made for the projected global bioenergy potentials. A growth rate study based on the projected global bioenergy potentials was made and used as a simple “reality check”. Regarding Sweden and the EU, it was investigated whether decisions has been made based on estimated bioenergy potentials. The final aim was to make recommendations for bioenergy decision-makers and policy-makers. There are many statistical distributions fitting the projections for 2050. The distribution functions showed that with a 95 % confidence level, the bioenergy projections in 2050 is 151.3 EJ. The interquartile range of all studies included in this report for primary bioenergy in the year 2050 was shown to be 120-400 EJ, with minimum value of 30 EJ and maximum of 1600 EJ. A mere third of the projection values were in the vicinity of a linear or exponential trendline based on historical values. The historical annual average growth rate for bioenergy from 1971 to 2011 was found to be 1.9 percent. A higher growth rate is required to achieve the larger quantities that are projected in most studies, the most extreme rate was 7.6 percent, which is far above the average. The EU has adopted a biomass action plan partly based on bioenergy projections by the European Energy Agency in 2006. National and international energy projection reports influence Swedish politics, albeit not directly in propositions. The difference between individual reports and articles projected bioenergy level in 2050 is significant. It is recommended to read more than one. Most forecasting models and estimates will likely perform poorly numerically, so it is recommended to look for underlying factors, connected longterm trends, or behavioral consequences.

Cette thèse porte sur l'étude de classes d'opérateurs. On étudie principalement deux familles différentes de classes d'opérateurs.- Les premières classes étudiées sont des classes d'opérateurs sur des espaces de Hilbert généralisant les classes $C_{ho}$ de Sz.Nagy et Foias.Pour $(ho_n)_n$ une suite de nombres complexes non-nuls, on définit la classe $C_{(ho_n)}(H)$ comme l'ensemble des opérateurs $T in mathcal{L}(H)$ qui possèdent une $(ho_n)$-dilatation : il existe un espace de Hilbert K et un opérateur unitaire $U in mathcal{L}(K)$ avec $H subset K$ tels que $T^n=ho_n P_H U^n|_H$ pour tout n $geq$ 1 ($P_H in mathcal{L}(K)$ étant la projection orthogonale de K sur H). Ces classes peuvent être associées à une fonction holomorphe $f_{(ho_n)}$ ainsi qu'à une quasi-norme $w_{(ho_n)}$. Nous utilisons les liens entre ces trois objets pour caractériser, décrire, et donner plusieurs propriétés spectrales sur les opérateurs contenues dans ces classes. Nous exhibons de même des relations entre plusieurs classes de cette forme, nous généralisons des résultats connus pour les classes $C_{(ho)}$, et donnons divers exemples et situations offrant des comportements différents du cas $C_{(ho)}$. Nous apportons aussi une nouvelle vision géométrique sur un résultat entre des quasi-normes $w_{ho}$, et nous étendons des calculs de $w_{ho}(T)$ pour des opérateurs T annulés par un polynôme de degré deux.- La deuxième partie principale de cette thèse concerne les classes de L^p-projections. Une L^p-projection sur un espace de Banach X, pour $1leq p leq +infty$, est une projection P qui vérifie $ |f|_X = |(|P(f)|_X, |(I-P)(f)|_X) |_{ell_{p}}$ pour tout f dans X. Cette relation est une version L^p de l'égalité $|f|^2=|Q(f)|^2 + |(I-Q)(f)|^2$, vérifiée pour les projections orthogonales dans les espaces de Hilbert.Nous nous intéressons aux relations entre les L^p-projections sur un espace de Banach X et celles sur un sous-espace F, sur un quotient X/F, ou sur un sous-espace de quotient G/F. Des caractérisations complètes sont apportées pour des espaces de Banach vérifiant quelques propriétés additionnelles, et selon la valeur de p.Nous introduisons aussi la notion de L^p-projection maximale pour X, c'est-à-dire des L^p-projections définies sur un sous-espace G de X qui ne peuvent pas être étendues comme L^p-projections sur un sous-espace plus grand, et étudions leurs propriétés, en particulier dans le cas de la dimension finie.Nous obtenons de même une caractérisation des L^{infty}-projections sur tous les espaces L^{infty}(Omega) via de nouvelles méthodes, en généralisant ainsi les résultats connus à ce sujet
This thesis focuses on the study of classes of operators. Two different families of classes of operators are mainly studied.- The first classes we study are classes of operators on Hilbert spaces that generalize the classes $C_{ho}$ of Nagy and Foias. For $(ho_n)_n$ a sequence of non-zero complex numbers, we define the class $C_{(ho_n)}(H)$ as the set of operators $T in mathcal{L}(H)$ that are said to possess a $(ho_n)$-dilation: there exists a Hilbert space K and a unitary operator $U in mathcal{L}(K)$ with $H subset K$ and $T^n=ho_n P_H U^n|_H$ for every $n geq 1$ ($P_H in mathcal{L}(K)$ being the orthogonal projection from K onto its closed subspace H). These classes can be associated with an holomorphic map $f_{(ho_n)}$ as well as a quasi-norm $w_{(ho_n)}$. These three objects are tied together and we use them to characterize, describe, and give several spectral properties of operators belonging to this class.We give multiple relationships between multiple classes of this form, generalize many results that were known for classes $C_{(ho)}$, and give several examples and cases that exhibit new behaviours. We also bring a new geometric meaning behind a relationship between quasi-norms $w_{ho}$ and extend the computations of $w_{ho}(T)$ for operators T that are zeroes of a degree two polynomial.- The second main part of our study concerns classes of L^p-projections.An L^p-projection on a Banach space X, for $1leq p leq +infty$, is an idempotent operator P satisfying $ |f|_X = |(|P(f)|_X, |(I-P)(f)|_X) |_{ell_{p}}$ for all f in X. This is anL^p version of the equality $|f|^2=|Q(f)|^2 + |(I-Q)(f)|^2$, valid for orthogonal projections on Hilbert spaces.We are interested into relationships between L^p-projections on a Banach space X and L^p-projections on a subspace F, on a quotient X/F, or on a subspace of a quotient G/F. These questions are given an answer on Banach spaces with additional properties, depending on the value of p.We also introduce a notion of maximal L^p-projections for X, that is L^p-projections defined on a subspace G of X that cannot be extended to L^p-projections on larger subspaces, and study their properties, especially on finite dimensional Banach spaces. A characterization of L^{infty}-projections on every space L^{infty}(Omega) is obtained as well using new methods, generalizing previously known results

La politique extérieure du Brésil de la première décennie du XXIe siècle a contribué à une projection internationale sans précédent du pays. La diplomatie brésilienne sous l’ère Lula a fait en sorte de combiner les relations traditionnelles Nord-Sud (axe vertical) avec les relations Sud-Sud (axe horizontal), dans le but d’affirmer la position du Brésil en tant qu’acteur global. La problématique que propose d’explorer le présent travail repose sur la question centrale de la multipolarité de l’ordre mondial à travers l’exemple de la projection internationale du Brésil. Cette thèse prétend présenter les grandes lignes de la diplomatie brésilienne sous les présidences de Lula (2003-2006 et 2007-2010), combinant une présentation de ses différentes initiatives sur la scène internationale et les facteurs déterminants de son action. L’objectif consistera à démontrer comment les axes diplomatiques adoptés par Lula ont pu contribuer à transformer son pays en un acteur de premier ordre reconnu du monde multipolaire qui se profile, et à le hisser dans le débat mondialisé
During the past decade, Brazil has enjoyed the most important unprecedented international projection in all of its history, mainly due to the proactive diplomatic efforts of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's administration. Brazilian foreign policy was based on the construction of brazilian leadership in South America, combining the South-North relations (vertical axis) and South-South relations (horizontal axis) in order to convert Brazil into a global player. This thesis aims to explore the central issue of multipolarity in the international system through the example of the international insertion of Brazil. In this sense, this work aims to present the brazilian diplomacy during the two “Lula” presidential terms (2003-2006 and 2007-2010), analyzing its various initiatives on the international scene and the determinants of its action. The objective is to understand, according to the realistic theory of international relations, how diplomatic axes adopted by brazilian policymakers have contributed to transform their country into a leading player in the multipolar world and global debate

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O setor sucroenergético é muito importante para a economia do Brasil, pois tem participação importante no PIB nacional, e gera um grande número de empregos. Além disso, contribui para a mitigação de GEE por substituição de combustíveis fósseis. No entanto este setor por depender de uma politica economica de longo prazo, e estar no centro de muitas incertezas socioambientais e economicas, o seu futuro possuem muitas divergencias. Em função deste cenário, objetivo deste estudo identificar, medir e tratar estas cincertas de forma a permitir estimar a demanda de etanol e o potencial sustentável da cana-de-açúcar, da produção atual e futura (2030), levando em conta restrições técnicas, econômicas e de sustentabilidade. A partir de uma competição de diferentes modelos de projeção de etanol identificou-se a possível faixa de demanda de etanol para 2030 no Brasil. A qual está estimatidaentre 61,7 GL de EtOH em 2030, no cenário otimista, e 49 GL EtOH no cenário pessimista. Uma vez determinada a demanda, os potenciais são calculados. Por outro lado, a partir de uma avaliação focada em recursos, com o usode uma análise espacialmente explícita, e uso do sistema de informação geográfica ArcGIS, a partir do uso de restirções tecnicas, economicas e ambientais, projetou-se o potencial de produção de cana-de-acucar no Brasil. Os resultados, para os cenários de 2012 e 2030, mostram que, teoricamente, o Brasil tem um grande potencial para a produção de cana-de-açúcar, mas quando restrições técnicas e econômicas são levadas em consideração, este potencial diminui significativamente. O mesmo é observado para o potencial ambiental e sustentável. Critérios ambientais quanto a redução das emissões de gases do efeito estufa e proteção de biomas, são os que possuem maior impacto na redução do potencial produtivo. Para 2012, o maior potencial sustentável da cana-de-açúcar é 0,72 EJ EtOH, e pode chegar a 1,61 EJ EtOH até 2030, se melhorias ocorrerem nos campos e na indústria. Este valor projetado é muito inferior ao esperado, porém ainda representa produção suficiente para atender à demanda nacional. Quanto a participação no mercado internacional, os resultados não são positivos e sugerem que dificilmente o Brasil terá excedente de produção para exportação, seguindo as premissas do estudo.
The sugarcane-ethanol sector is very important for the Brazilian economy, as it contributes to the country’s GDP and generates a great number of jobs. In addition, it contributes to Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation by replacing fossil fuels. However, as this sector depends on a long term economic policy and is reason for socio-economic and environmental concerns, it has a future full of uncertainties. Therefore, the aim of this study is to identify, measure and assess these doubts to estimate ethanol demand and to assess the sustainable potential of sugarcane, of the current and future (2030) production, taking into account technical, economic and sustainability constraints. From a comparison of different projection models, the potential ethanol demand range for 2030 is defined. It is estimated that Brazil will demand 61.7 GL of EtOH in 2030, in the optimistic scenario, and 49 GL EtOH in the pessimistic scenario. Once demand is determined, the potentials of sugar cane ethanol production are calculated. A resource-focused assessment with a spatially explicit analysis is realized, using the geographic information system ArcGIS. The results for 2012 and 2030 scenarios, show that theoretically Brazil has a vast potential for sugarcane production, but when technical-economic constraints are taken into consideration, it significantly decreases. The same is true for the environmental and sustainable potential. Environmental criteria regarding the GHG emission reduction of and the protection of biomes are those that have the greatest impact on the reduction of the productive potential. For 2012 the highest sustainable potential for sugarcane is 0.76 EJ EtOH, but this can increase to 1.61 EJ EtOH towards 2030 if improvements happen in the fields and in industry. The results are lower than expected, but still represents sufficient production to meet the domestic demand. Concerning the increase in international market share, the results are not positive and suggest that Brazil will hardly have surplus in sustainable production for export, following assumptions made in this study.

Dans ce mémoire nous utilisons SimUL, un modèle de microsimulation dynamique en forme réduite de l'économie québécoise développé au sein de la Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques. Notre objectif est triple : projeter l'évolution des taux de faible revenu chez les aînés québécois, estimer l'effet de la rente au conjoint survivant sur la vulnérabilité des veuves et enfin mesurer la sensibilité des taux de faible revenu aux seuils choisis. Toutes nos projections couvrent la période 2016 à 2050 et utilisent la Mesure du Panier de Consommation (MPC) comme mesure de faible revenu. En se basant sur les tendances récentes et sur les règles fiscales en vigueur, SimUL projette une diminution importante des taux de faible revenu chez les aînés québécois. Le taux de faible revenu des 65-74 ans passant de 7,8% en 2016 à 3,1% en 2050, et celui des 75 ans et plus passant de 5,2% à 1,5%. Cette forte diminution s'explique par la plus grande participation des femmes au marché du travail parmi les cohortes plus jeunes, les rendant dans le futur moins dépendantes des revenus de leurs conjoints et des transferts publics. Nous projetons ensuite le rôle de la rente au conjoint survivant dans la diminution de la vulnérabilité des aînées. La rente au conjoint survivant est un programme permettant de transférer une partie de la rente RRQ d'une personne décédée à son conjoint survivant. Nous trouvons qu'en l'absence de ce programme, le taux de faible revenu des veuves augmenterait de cinq points de pourcentages. Malgré une tendance à la baisse, ce programme continuerait de jouer un rôle important jusqu'en 2050 où le taux de faible revenu sans ce programme passerait de 3% à plus de 5%. Enfin, les taux de faible revenu étant réputés extrêmement sensibles aux seuils choisis, nous procédons à une troisième simulation en majorant ces seuils. Nous trouvons un effet de seuils extrêmement important, une majoration de 5% faisant passer le taux de faible revenu des veuves de 12% à plus de 30% et une majoration de 10% porterait le taux à 40% pour l'année 2017.

The Central Arizona Project Water Availability Model (CAPWAM) is a simplified model of the hydrology and operations of the Colorado River designed to estimate water availability for the Central Arizona Project (CAP) for the period 1985 to 2040. CAPWAM differs from other models of the basin in that it uses synthetic streamflow data. When historic streamflow data are used in CAPWAM, results are very similar to those of the Bureau of Reclamation Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS). However when data from a first-order autoregressive streamflow generator are used in CAPWAM, there is greater average availability of water for the CAP and also greater variability in diversion. Both surplus deliveries and severe shortage deliveries to southern Arizona are more frequent in CAPWAM than CRSS. Using only historic data in a river operations model produces results in which extreme events--both floods and droughts--are underestimated.

Doutoramento em Economia
Climate change mitigation and the imperative of a new sustainable energy paradigm are among the greatest challenges facing the world today, and they are high on the priority list of policy makers as well as within the scientific community. In this context significant efforts are being made in the design and implementation of energy and carbon mitigation policies at both European and national level. Evidence of this can be seen in the recent adoption by the EU of an integrated climate and energy policy that setts ambitious binding targets to be achieved by 2020 – known as the 20-20-20 targets of the EU Climate and Energy Package. Undoubtedly, the cost of these policies can be substantially reduced if a comprehensive impact assessment is made of the most efficient and cost-effective policy measures and technological options. Policy impact assessment therefore plays an important role in supporting the energy and climate decision-making process. This is the context of and motivation for the research presented in this thesis. The first part of the thesis, the conceptual framework, describes the development of the Hybrid Bottom-up General Equilibrium Model (HyBGEM) for Portugal, as a decision-support tool to assist national policy makers in conducting energy and climate policy analysis. HyBGEM is a single integrated, multi-sector, hybrid top-down/bottom-up general equilibrium E3 model formulated as a mixed complementarity problem. The second part of the thesis, the empirical analysis, provides an impact assessment of Portugal’s 2020 energy-climate policy targets under the EU Climate and Energy Package commitments, based on the HyBGEM model and the baseline projections previously developed. Five policy scenarios have been modelled and simulated to evaluate the economic, environmental and technological impacts on Portugal of complying with its individual 2020 carbon emissions and renewable energy targets. Furthermore, insights are gained into how these targets interact with each other, what are the most efficient and cost-effective policy options, and how alternative pathways affect the extent of policy-induced effects. The numerical analysis reveals that Portugal’s 2020 energy-climate targets can be achieved without significant compliance costs. A major challenge for policy makers is to promote an effective decarbonisation of the electricity generation sector through renewable-based technologies. There is evidence that the compliance costs of Portugal’s low carbon target in 2020 are significantly higher than the costs of achieving the national RES-E target, given that imposing carbon emissions constraints and subsidising renewable electricity generation via a feed-in tariffs scheme both have a similar impact on economy-wide emissions. This result suggests that the most cost-effective policy option to achieve the national energy-climate targets is to promote renewable power generation technologies, recommending that policy makers should proceed with the mechanisms that support it. The transition to a ‘greener’ economy is thus central to the ongoing fight against climate change. There is also evidence that emission market segmentation as imposed by the current EU-ETS creates substantial excess costs compared to uniform emissions pricing through a comprehensive cap-and-trade system. The economic argument on counterproductive overlapping regulation is not corroborated by the findings. Furthermore, there is no potential for a double dividend arising from environmental tax reforms. To conclude, the results highlight the critical importance of market distortions and revenue-recycling schemes, together with baseline projections in policy impact assessment.
A mitigação das alterações climáticas e o imperativo de um novo paradigma energético sustentável estão entre os maiores desafios que o mundo de hoje enfrenta, surgindo no topo da lista de prioridades quer dos decisores políticos quer da comunidade científica. Neste contexto, têm sido envidados esforços significativos na conceção e aplicação de políticas energéticas e de mitigação de carbono, tanto a nível europeu como nacional. A recente adoção de uma política integrada da UE em matéria de clima e energia, com objetivos ambiciosos a serem alcançados até 2020 – os denominados objetivos 20-20-20 do Pacote Clima-Energia da UE, é prova disso. Não há dúvida de que o custo destas políticas pode ser substancialmente reduzido se for feita uma avaliação global das medidas e das opções tecnológicas mais eficientes e com melhor relação custo-eficácia. A avaliação de impacto das políticas desempenha assim um papel importante no apoio à tomada de decisão em matéria energética e climática. São estes o contexto e a motivação para a investigação apresentada nesta tese. A primeira parte da tese, referente à estrutura conceptual, descreve o desenvolvimento do modelo HyBGEM – Hybrid Bottom-up General Equilibrium Model, concebido para Portugal. Trata-se de uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão em matéria de políticas de energia-clima. O HyBGEM é um modelo E3 de equilíbrio geral, com uma estrutura híbrida top-down/bottom-up integrada, multi-setorial e formulado como um problema de complementaridade mista. A segunda parte da tese, referente à análise empírica, apresenta uma avaliação de impacto das políticas de energia-clima para Portugal no quadro dos compromissos assumidos no Pacote Clima-Energia da UE, com base no modelo HyBGEM e em projeções de base previamente construídas. Foram modelados e simulados cinco cenários de política para avaliar os impactos económicos, ambientais e tecnológicos do cumprimento das metas nacionais traçadas para 2020 em matéria de limitação de emissões de carbono e promoção das energias renováveis. Avalia-se também o modo como estes objetivos interagem entre si, quais são as opções de política mais eficientes e custo-eficazes, e em que medida opções alternativas influenciam a magnitude dos impactos. A análise numérica revela que as metas energia-clima 2020 para Portugal podem ser alcançadas sem incorrer em custos de cumprimento significativos. O desafio fundamental que se coloca aos decisores políticos consiste em impulsionar a descarbonização do setor de produção de energia elétrica através de tecnologias de energia renovável. Existe evidência de que os custos de cumprimento da meta de redução de carbono são significativamente mais elevados que os custos de cumprimento da meta de FER-E, sendo que a imposição de restrições às emissões e a subsidiação da produção de eletricidade a partir de fontes de energia renovável (regime de tarifas feed-in) têm um impacto semelhante sobre o total de emissões. Este resultado sugere que a promoção das tecnologias de base renovável no sistema energético nacional é a opção com melhor relação custo-eficácia para a concretização dos objetivos nacionais energia-clima para 2020, instando os decisores políticos a prosseguir com os mecanismos de apoio existentes. A transição para uma economia mais ‘verde’ afigura-se assim fundamental no combate em curso contra as alterações climáticas. A análise revela também que a segmentação do mercado de emissões imposta pelo atual CELE gera custos adicionais substanciais quando comparada com um sistema de direitos de emissão uniforme. O argumento económico de que a sobreposição de regulamentação é contraproducente não é corroborado pelos resultados. A expectativa de um duplo dividendo decorrente das reformas fiscais em matéria ambiental não foi confirmada. Os resultados destacam ainda a importância crítica das distorções de mercado, dos sistemas de reciclagem de receitas e das projeções de base, para a avaliação de impacto das políticas.

La clinique des personnalités-bordure interroge les effets de la rencontre avec l'objet primaire sur la construction du narcissisme et sur l'activité représentative. Le dispositif projectif met en évidence le surinvestissement des limites, comme mécanisme de défense privilégié, pour tenir à distance les menaces de désorganisation dues au retour des traces clivées et maintenir au mieux une continuité d'être. Les mises en acte corporelles qui se déploient dans la relation transférentielle sont autant d'expression du registre des processus primaires qui informent sur les tentatives du sujet pour maîtriser les effets de la relation avec l'objet. Ces logiques de désespoir viennent en réponse aux rencontres avec un objet d'attachement dont le fonctionnement paradoxal dévoile les inadéquations et les discordances. Elles ont une fonction d'appel envers un double susceptible d'assurer une fonction réflexive adéquate. La fonction symbolisante du thérapeute consiste à faire passer l'état de décharge à l'état de signe afin d'en favoriser la contextualisation (mise en scène) nécessaire à l'élaboration psychique (mise en sens) afin de constituer comme souvenir ce qui semble oublié. Le processus bordure apparaît ainsi comme un mécanisme de défense qui permet de circonscrire le noyau psychotique désorganisé pour tenir à distance la pensée délirante primaire et se préserver un accès au champ de la représentation et de la signification.

AbstractCancer is the second leading cause of death among non-Hispanic white (NHW) men and women in the United States—but is the leading cause of death among Latinos (American Cancer Society, Cancer facts and figures for Hispanics/Latinos 2018–2020. American Cancer Society, Inc., Atlanta, 2018). The US Latino population was 60.6 million in 2019, as one of the largest, youngest, and fastest growing minority groups in the United States, its population will nearly double by 2060, making up 27.5% of the projected US population (Vespa et al., Demographic turning points for the United States: population projections for 2020 to 2060. U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC. Report No.: P25-1144. https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p25-1144.html. Accessed 25 Aug 2021, 2020; Noe-Bustamante et al., Hispanic population surpassed 60 million in 2019, but growth has slowed. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/07/07/u-s-hispanic-population-surpassed-60-million-in-2019-but-growth-has-slowed/. Accessed 28 Aug 2021, 2020). Thus, advancing the science of cancer in Latinos has become an imperative for the nation, as Latinos will contribute a significant portion to its future cancer burden.

This work performs a counterfactual analysis on unemployment dynamics in Italy during the year 2020. In doing so, ARIMA models are estimated and used to make projections for the 2020 quarters. This exercise is performed at population level and for each gender, age and educational groups. Data are from the Italian Labor Force Survey covering the years 2015-2019 at quarterly frequency. Over the quarters of the year 2020, i.e. a time period covered by the Covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions, actual and counterfactual unemployment dynamics are compared. Overall, this work tries to answer to the following question: what would have happened to unemployment dynamics if Covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions would not arise as they did? Results can be informative to policymakers if the ARIMA projections can represent a reference for the aftermath of the pandemic.

AbstractWhile the world is battling the new coronavirus known as SARS-COV-2, public health and nutrition services in India are getting disrupted and derailed. It is pertinent not to overlook the existing gaps in our journey towards attaining the holistic sustainable development goals (SDGs). In fact, it is now well-established that comorbidities, especially malnutrition, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and other respiratory or kidney problems exacerbate the pathogenesis of COVID-19 because of an already compromised immune system. The whole world is off track in achieving SDG 2, known as Zero Hunger, by 2030. At the current pace, approximately 17 countries including India will fail to even reach low hunger by 2030. India ranks 104 out of 117 countries as per the used metric, the global hunger index. Furthermore, these projections do not account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which may worsen hunger and undernutrition in the near term and affect countries’ trajectories into the future.The author underscores the serious adverse impacts of COVID-19 on public health, nutrition, and food security in India and other low- and middle-income countries. Estimates show that 135 million persons were hungry before the pandemic. By the end of 2020, the number will likely increase to 265 million. India carries a heavy burden of multiple forms of malnutrition including undernutrition, hunger, micronutrient deficiencies as well as overweight, and obesity. India’s public health and nutritional policies must urgently address these problems. Measures taken by the government during the pandemic to counter its negative impact on the nutrition of women, children, migrant labor, and other vulnerable populations are enumerated. The response of the international community to tackle COVID-19 related nutritional challenges and India’s policy measures for ensuring nutrition and food security are discussed.

Waste management is among the priority areas in the policy of Bulgaria, as part of the EU. Improving the environment by reducing landfilled waste, achieving balance and sustainability in different regions of our country, priority orientation to products from biodegradable household waste, effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, improving the condition of soils in Bulgaria, and preserving natural diversity are among the key objectives. Bulgaria's developed National Waste Plan until 2028 is a serious query to find ways to solve the problem of garbage in the country and create conditions for a successful transition to a circular economy. The purpose of the report is to analyze the costs of waste management in Bulgaria for the period 2015-2020 and to characterize the National Plan for Waste Management in Bulgaria until 2028.

This study aims to assess potential climate changes in the Transcarpathia Region in the period 2021-2050 relative to the 1991-2020 base period based on the calculation of temperature and precipitation climate indices: annual average air temperature, number of frost days (FD), number of summer days (SU), number of tropical days (TD), amount of winter precipitation, amount of summer precipitation, annual count of days with more than 20 mm precipitation (R20mm) and maximum amount of precipitation for two consecutive days (AMP2). The domain under study includes the Transcarpathia Region of Ukraine and its neighbouring territories and has extremely complicated topography, with an altitude range between 101 m and 2061 m ASL. Such complexity significantly influences an interpolation/downscaling procedure applied to climatological variables (e.g., air temperature, atmospheric precipitation, etc.). In this study, daily data collected at 11 meteorological stations located in the domain was used. Data of four essential climate variables, namely minimum air temperature (tn), mean air temperature (tm), maximum air temperature (tx), and atmospheric precipitation (rr), were used in the calculations. The period covered by the data time series is 1961-2020. Data of climate model simulations (historical and future projections) were obtained from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project for the European domain (Euro-CORDEX). In our calculations, the Euro-CORDEX daily data of tn, tm, tx, and rr (converted previously from precipitation flux) was used. We only selected Euro-CORDEX simulations which (1) were performed based on RPC4.5, (2) provide output data in the Gregorian (or similar) calendar, and (3) provide output for all four variables. Thus, a multimodel ensemble of climate simulations utilised in our calculations consists of eleven members (combinations of 5 GCMs and 8 RCMs). Quality control of the station time series was performed by means of the INQC software (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=INQC). Homogenization was performed using the Climatol package (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=climatol) (Guijarro, 2018). We used the MISH software (Szentimrey and Bihari, 2014) to perform gridding/downscaling of the station data on the grid with the spatial resolution of 0.05° in both horizontal directions (~5 km). Bias-correction of the climate model data was performed by means of linear/variance scaling (for the air temperature data) and quantile matching (for the atmospheric precipitation data) methods. After bias correction of the climate projection data, they were statistically downscaled by means of the MISH software to the 0.05° grid, the same as for the observation data. The downscaling was performed for the period of 2006-2050 for each climate variable and each climate model (GCM-RCM combination). Spatial fields of air temperature (minimum, average and maximum) and amounts of precipitation for each day of the historical period (1961-2020) and the period of climate projections (2006-2050) were obtained. Based on the MISH downscaled climate model data, 8 climate indices were calculated for each year of the projection period (2021-2050) and each grid point of the interpolation grid (with the 0.05° spatial resolution). Finally, differences (anomalies) in the climate indices averaged over 1991-2020 and 2021-2050, i.e. calculated base observations and projections, respectively, were computed. Our calculations showed a moderate increase in air temperature (and other related indices, such as SU and TD) in 2021-2050 compared to 1991-2020. The increase is more intensive on valleys of the domain, while mountain tops and ridges will experience less intensive changes. Atmospheric precipitation will not change significantly.

Abstract The 60Co gantry-movable dual-projection radiography inspection system is newly developed, aiming to the inspection of vehicles entering and exiting the nuclear facilities. It adopts two Co-60 radioactive sources and two arrays of gas ionization chambers corresponding to the two sources, respectively. They can move synchronously with the gantry driven by the mechanical and control subsystem. So, dual projections could be obtained through one scan from two different directions. Compared to a single projection, the dual projections make it easier to found hidden objects and distinguish whether a dark area is due to overlapping objects or because there are well-shielded prohibited items such as nuclear materials. Therefore, it is helpful to found well-shielded nuclear materials and prevent them from being stolen. However, problems also come due to the using of two radioactive sources and the moving gantry. For the former one, it will bring about scattering effect between two sources, while for the latter one, the signals of the detectors would fluctuate as the gantry moves, owing to the vibration of collimator and gantry as well as the non-synchronous movement of sources and detectors. So, the radiography projections are needed to be corrected. In response to the second question, the no-load data is repeatedly measured when the gantry is in different positions, then a method of image calibration based on the dynamic no-load data is proposed for this inspection system to replace the correction with average no-load data. Result shows that the corrected no-load image turns smoother, meaning that the method of dynamic correction could effectively improve the radiation image.

Today, humanity must deal with the consequences of ongoing climate change. The most observed manifestations of climate change include increasing temperatures, as well as increasing monthly and annual average temperatures. In the present work, the change in the number of days with temperatures between 30 and 35 degrees Celsius and above 35 degrees Celsius was compared. Meteorological data from 21 climatic stations on the territory of the Kosice and Presov self-governing regions (Slovakia) were provided by the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute in Bratislava. The data covered the period 1961 - 2020. Based on these data, we determined the forecast of the development for the period 2031-2040 and 2051-2060. The results show that in the last 20 years there has been a huge increase in the number of tropical days in the warmest regions of Slovakia. In the Somotor area, this increase is at the level of about 200 days compared to the cold period of 1971 - 1980. In terms of super tropical days (above 35 degrees Celsius), the number of super tropical days increased approximately fourfold during 1961 - 2010. The largest increase is in the last decade 2011-2020. Some places now experience 50 or more super tropical days per year. Looking at the 2031 - 2040 and 2051 - 2060 projections, the numbers of tropical and super tropical days can be expected to increase in the future.

Described are the methodology, database and example projections to the year 2020 of the cumulative emissions from diesel locomotives in Canada for a range of freight and passenger fleet activity profiles. The emissions include both the criteria air contaminants (CAC) harmful to human health and the principal greenhouse gases (GHG) covered by the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change. The projections show a continuous reduction in emissions intensities to 2020 as the Canadian railways acquire new locomotives meeting U.S. EPA Tier 2 and Tier 3 emissions limits to accommodate both increased traffic and units being retired.

In the December 2022 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the median projection for four-quarter core PCE inflation in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 2.1 percent. This same SEP has unemployment rising by nine-tenths, to 4.6 percent, by the end of 2023. We assess the plausibility of this projection using a specific nonlinear model that embeds an empirically successful nonlinear Phillips curve specification into a structural model, identifying it via an underutilized data-dependent method. We model core PCE inflation using three components that align with those noted by Chair Powell in his December 14, 2022, press conference: housing, core goods, and core-services-less-housing. Our model projects that conditional on the SEP unemployment rate path and a rapid deceleration of core goods prices, core PCE inflation moderates to only 2.75 percent by the end of 2025: inflation will be higher for longer. A deep recession would be necessary to achieve the SEP’s projected inflation path. A simple reduced-form welfare analysis, which abstracts from any danger of inflation expectations becoming unanchored, suggests that such a recession would not be optimal.

Projecting future demand for electricity is central to power sector planning, as these projections inform capacity investment requirements and related infrastructure expansions. Electricity is not currently economically storable in large volumes. Thus, the underlying drivers of electricity demand and potential market shifts must be carefully considered to minimize power system costs.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

As of 2017, 8.3 billion metric tons of plastic had been produced worldwide. Since about 40% is used in things that are thrown away relatively quickly (packaging and single use items), 6.4 billion metric tons had already become discarded materials needing to be managed. Only 9% of these discarded materials were recycled globally. The annual estimate of plastic entering our oceans globally is 5 to 13 million metric tons (MMT) per year. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has an extensive populated coast, 119,000 km of coastline and over 205 million people living within 50 km of that coastline. Waste management infrastructure is still under development in many countries. Economic growth without fully developed infrastructure can lead to increased plastic leakage. This report focuses on municipal solid waste as a source of plastic input into the environment in LAC. The reports estimates that total plastic waste available to enter the ocean in LAC in 2020 was 3.7 MMT . Under business-as-usual projections, the report anticipates that the regional quantity available to enter the oceans in 2030 will be 4.1 MMT and 4.4 MMT in 2050.