Journal articles on the topic 'Prognostic horizon'
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1
Lijovic, M., ME Fabiani, J. Bader, and AG Frauman. "Prostate cancer: are new prognostic markers on the horizon?" Prostate Cancer and Prostatic Diseases 3, no. 2 (August 2000): 62–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sj.pcan.4500408.
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Bradbury, Jane. "A new prognostic tool on the horizon for breast cancer." Lancet 358, no. 9286 (September 2001): 989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(01)06151-7.
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Bellocchio, Francesco, Caterina Lonati, Jasmine Ion Titapiccolo, Jennifer Nadal, Heike Meiselbach, Matthias Schmid, Barbara Baerthlein, et al. "Validation of a Novel Predictive Algorithm for Kidney Failure in Patients Suffering from Chronic Kidney Disease: The Prognostic Reasoning System for Chronic Kidney Disease (PROGRES-CKD)." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 23 (November 30, 2021): 12649. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182312649.
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Current equation-based risk stratification algorithms for kidney failure (KF) may have limited applicability in real world settings, where missing information may impede their computation for a large share of patients, hampering one from taking full advantage of the wealth of information collected in electronic health records. To overcome such limitations, we trained and validated the Prognostic Reasoning System for Chronic Kidney Disease (PROGRES-CKD), a novel algorithm predicting end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). PROGRES-CKD is a naïve Bayes classifier predicting ESKD onset within 6 and 24 months in adult, stage 3-to-5 CKD patients. PROGRES-CKD trained on 17,775 CKD patients treated in the Fresenius Medical Care (FMC) NephroCare network. The algorithm was validated in a second independent FMC cohort (n = 6760) and in the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study cohort (n = 4058). We contrasted PROGRES-CKD accuracy against the performance of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). Discrimination accuracy in the validation cohorts was excellent for both short-term (stage 4–5 CKD, FMC: AUC = 0.90, 95%CI 0.88–0.91; GCKD: AUC = 0.91, 95% CI 0.86–0.97) and long-term (stage 3–5 CKD, FMC: AUC = 0.85, 95%CI 0.83–0.88; GCKD: AUC = 0.85, 95%CI 0.83–0.88) forecasting horizons. The performance of PROGRES-CKD was non-inferior to KFRE for the 24-month horizon and proved more accurate for the 6-month horizon forecast in both validation cohorts. In the real world setting captured in the FMC validation cohort, PROGRES-CKD was computable for all patients, whereas KFRE could be computed for complete cases only (i.e., 30% and 16% of the cohort in 6- and 24-month horizons). PROGRES-CKD accurately predicts KF onset among CKD patients. Contrary to equation-based scores, PROGRES-CKD extends to patients with incomplete data and allows explicit assessment of prediction robustness in case of missing values. PROGRES-CKD may efficiently assist physicians’ prognostic reasoning in real-life applications.
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Sun, Fei, Yingying Lian, Jianlin Wang, Lijun Hu, Judong Luo, and Jingping Yu. "KIF26B in the Prognosis and Immune Biomarking of Various Cancers: A Pan-Cancer Study." Journal of Oncology 2022 (March 22, 2022): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/4829697.
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KIF26B has been identified as an oncogene in several tumors; however, its utility as a prognostic indicator for various cancers has not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we first examined how KIF26B intervenes in thirty-three cancers within the TCGA database, including potential immunological functions, and how it affects the prognosis. Based on the open databases TCGA, TIMER2, GEPIA2, GTEx, CPTAC, and HPA, we found that, when compared with normal tissues, KIF26B is overexpressed in 22 tumor tissues. Following a survival analysis, a relationship between the expression of KIF26B and the prognosis of various cancers was observed. Among the genetic alterations assessed, mutations were the most frequent. On the contrary, high phosphorylation levels of S977 were detected in breast cancer, KIRC, LUAD, and UCEC. We also found positive or negative correlations between KIF26B and the immune infiltration of endothelial cells and cancer-associated fibroblast infiltration. This could imply that patients may benefit from immunotherapy. Finally, KEGG pathways and GO enrichment analyses were implemented to identify the molecular mechanisms of KIF26B. This study illustrates the function of KIF26B from a pan-cancer perspective and offers a new horizon for cancer prognostic and immunotherapeutic investigations.
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Kolokolov, Yu, and A. Monovskaya. "Concerning the time horizon of prognostic indicators to be beforehand with local climate changes." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 979, no. 1 (February 1, 2022): 012124. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/979/1/012124.
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Abstract The paper researches the time resource to be beforehand with climate changes. The feature of the research consists in the following: the evolutionary properties of the local climate dynamics are considered from the bifurcation analysis, and adaptive properties are considered from the control theory. Then the principal event-driven scenario of the climate change birth is revealed over the period of the reliable meteorological observations; next, the rate of its development is estimated in the context of factually realized precedents; so, time horizons of prognostic indicators are determined. The research is founded on the regulatory theory on local climate dynamics. The analytical conclusions are illustrated by examples of processing the open-access data on daily mean air surface temperature in the continental part of Russia.
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Goliney, Vladimir A., and Dmitry M. Rosenthal. "US hegemony in Latin America and opportunities to overcome it: horizon 2040." USA & Canada Economics – Politics – Culture, no. 12 (December 15, 2023): 21–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/s2686673023120027.
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This article examines the phenomenon of US hegemony in the Western Hemisphere and explores the possibility of overcoming it by 2040. The authors question the expediency of this measure for the countries within the region. The article identifies key determinants of Inter-American relations development. Among the key threats to Washington's dominance, the authors highlight the strengthening positions of major powers, particularly Brazil and Mexico, as well as China. The study's prognostic nature dictates its methodology, wherein current trends are compared with visions of future world development (by the middle of the 21st century).
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Tang, Chaozhi, Jiakang Ma, Xueting Wang, Fang Lei, Kaining Lu, Wentao Zhang, Yuyan Zhu, Xudong Yao, and Bin Yang. "Comprehensive characterization and functional implications of mesenchymal stem cell-related genes in pancancer: A new horizon for immunotherapy." Journal of Clinical Oncology 40, no. 16_suppl (June 1, 2022): e14577-e14577. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2022.40.16_suppl.e14577.
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e14577 Background: Accumulated evidence demonstrates that mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) contribute to tissue regeneration, tumor progression, chemotherapy resistance, and mediate tumor immune escape by modulating the stroma and immunity of the tumor microenvironment. However, little is known about the role of MSCs in cancer patients receiving immunotherapy. Therefore, we investigated the comprehensive characterization of MSC-related genes and their functional implications in pan-cancer immunotherapy. Methods: We performed a pan-cancer analysis of 59 MSC-related genes, which was used to calculate an MSC score with single sample gene set enrichment analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify a potential independent prognostic marker for cancer. TIDE algorithm and neural network were utilized to assess the predictive accuracy of MSC-related genes for immunotherapy. Results: MSC-related gene expression showed significant differences inconsistently between normal and tumor samples across the 33 cancer types (p < 0.05). Cox regression analysis suggested that the MSC score is an independent prognostic marker for papillary renal cell carcinoma (TCGA; OS, RFS and DSS, all p < 0.05), mesothelioma (TCGA and GSE29354, OS, all p < 0.05), glioma (TCGA and GSE107850, OS, all p < 0.05), and stomach adenocarcinoma (TCGA, GSE84437, GSE15459, GSE13861 and GSE62254, OS; GSE13861 and GSE62254, RFS; all p < 0.05). The abundance of fibroblasts was also more representative of the MSC score compared to the stromal score. Samples with a high MSC score were predicted to have low responsiveness to immunotherapy, which was validated across seven immune checkpoint therapy datasets (IMvigor210, 27.52% (low) vs 18.12% (high); GSE78220, 64.28% (low) vs 42.86% (high); GSE135222, 30.77% (low) vs 28.57% (high); GSE165252, 36.11% (low) vs 28.57% (high); GSE79671; 38.89% (low) vs 33.33% (high); PRJEB25780, 45.45% (low) vs 8.70% (high); GSE176307, 22.22% (low) vs 13.64% (high)). TIDE algorithm and Neural network demonstrated a good predictive accuracy of MSC-related genes for immunotherapy (CESC, COAD, DLBC, GBM, KIRC, LAML, LIHC, LUAD, LUSC, MESO, OV, PCPG, PRAD, SARC, SKCM, THCA, UCEC, and UCS; all ROC ≥0.9). Conclusions: We characterized the MSC-related genes across multiple cancer types and highlighted their potential as a predictive biomarker for immunotherapy response and prognosis. A prospective clinical trial is warranted to confirm these findings.
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Tang, Chaozhi, Jiakang Ma, Xueting Wang, Fang Lei, Kaining Lu, Wentao Zhang, Yuyan Zhu, Xudong Yao, and Bin Yang. "Comprehensive characterization and functional implications of mesenchymal stem cell-related genes in pancancer: A new horizon for immunotherapy." Journal of Clinical Oncology 40, no. 16_suppl (June 1, 2022): e14577-e14577. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2022.40.16_suppl.e14577.
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e14577 Background: Accumulated evidence demonstrates that mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) contribute to tissue regeneration, tumor progression, chemotherapy resistance, and mediate tumor immune escape by modulating the stroma and immunity of the tumor microenvironment. However, little is known about the role of MSCs in cancer patients receiving immunotherapy. Therefore, we investigated the comprehensive characterization of MSC-related genes and their functional implications in pan-cancer immunotherapy. Methods: We performed a pan-cancer analysis of 59 MSC-related genes, which was used to calculate an MSC score with single sample gene set enrichment analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify a potential independent prognostic marker for cancer. TIDE algorithm and neural network were utilized to assess the predictive accuracy of MSC-related genes for immunotherapy. Results: MSC-related gene expression showed significant differences inconsistently between normal and tumor samples across the 33 cancer types (p < 0.05). Cox regression analysis suggested that the MSC score is an independent prognostic marker for papillary renal cell carcinoma (TCGA; OS, RFS and DSS, all p < 0.05), mesothelioma (TCGA and GSE29354, OS, all p < 0.05), glioma (TCGA and GSE107850, OS, all p < 0.05), and stomach adenocarcinoma (TCGA, GSE84437, GSE15459, GSE13861 and GSE62254, OS; GSE13861 and GSE62254, RFS; all p < 0.05). The abundance of fibroblasts was also more representative of the MSC score compared to the stromal score. Samples with a high MSC score were predicted to have low responsiveness to immunotherapy, which was validated across seven immune checkpoint therapy datasets (IMvigor210, 27.52% (low) vs 18.12% (high); GSE78220, 64.28% (low) vs 42.86% (high); GSE135222, 30.77% (low) vs 28.57% (high); GSE165252, 36.11% (low) vs 28.57% (high); GSE79671; 38.89% (low) vs 33.33% (high); PRJEB25780, 45.45% (low) vs 8.70% (high); GSE176307, 22.22% (low) vs 13.64% (high)). TIDE algorithm and Neural network demonstrated a good predictive accuracy of MSC-related genes for immunotherapy (CESC, COAD, DLBC, GBM, KIRC, LAML, LIHC, LUAD, LUSC, MESO, OV, PCPG, PRAD, SARC, SKCM, THCA, UCEC, and UCS; all ROC ≥0.9). Conclusions: We characterized the MSC-related genes across multiple cancer types and highlighted their potential as a predictive biomarker for immunotherapy response and prognosis. A prospective clinical trial is warranted to confirm these findings.
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Polgár, Csaba, Tibor Major, and János Fodor. "Modern radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery." Orvosi Hetilap 153, no. 2 (January 2012): 45–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/oh.2012.29248.
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In the last four decades breast-conserving surgery followed by whole breast irradiation has become the standard of care for the treatment of early-stage (0-I-II) breast carcinoma. With the advent of breast-screening, incidence of breast carcinomas with more favorable prognostic characteristics has increased significantly. This change in the prognostic profile of newly diagnosed breast cancers opened a new horizon for clinical research seeking for individual risk-adapted protocols of breast cancer radiotherapy. Several groups have been tested the efficacy of accelerated (partial or whole) breast irradiation, which has become the new treatment paradigm in the radiotherapy of early-stage breast cancers. Furthermore, others have attempted to identify subgroups of patients for whom radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery could be safely omitted. Recently molecular gene expression assays have emerged as promising prognostic and predictive markers for local recurrence. This article reviews the results of these studies focusing on individual risk-adapted radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery for patients with early-stage breast carcinoma. Orv. Hetil., 2012, 153, 45–55.
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Boykina, E. E., and V. A. Chernov. "Legal Conscience of Teens from the Centennials Generation: a Prognostic Assessment." Psychology and Law 11, no. 1 (2021): 135–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.17759/psylaw.2021110111.
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Adolescence is a sensitive period for setting the groundwork of one's legal conscience on the way to the legal culture of an adult. The article analyses the projected risks for shaping the legal conscience of people for the next 10-20 years using the approach of the modern theories of generational cohorts. For the purpose of "detailed portrayal" of the anticipated image of an adult from the 2030-2040 this article contains the results of 11 studies (on centennials, iGeners, homelanders, digital natives etc.). The disputable traits of the typical representatives of these generations (that can potentially have impact on the formation process of their legal conscience) are compared: the idea of authority, the new forms of communication and education, hedonism, multitasking, planning horizon, family values etc. A number of features of the modern generation are compared with the fundamental elements of the structural and functional model of legal conscience (Ratinov A.P), particularly from the viewpoint of some systems: cognitive, regulative and evaluation. The postulates of the generation theories are critically assessed. We also analyse the general tendencies for the interaction of generations from the perspective of legal socializing.
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Sekeres, Mikkael A., and Bhumika J. Patel. "Lowering the boom on lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes." Hematology 2019, no. 1 (December 6, 2019): 367–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/hematology.2019000040.
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Abstract Lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes are defined using prognostic scoring systems that incorporate data on bone marrow blast percentage, degree and numbers of cytopenias, and cytogenetic abnormalities. Increasingly, these are incorporating molecular abnormalities to further refine risk. Therapy is geared toward predominating cytopenias, with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents luspatercept and lenalidomide used to ameliorate anemia, romiplostim and eltrombopag tackling thrombocytopenia, and hypomethylating agents and antithymocyte globulin palliating pancytopenia. Newer agents on the horizon are abrogating the downstream sequelae of specific molecular mutations. One challenge for the future is in further modifying response criteria to align with improvements that are clinically meaningful to patients.
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Garrido, Pilar, María Eugenia Olmedo, Ana Gómez, Luis Paz Ares, Fernando López-Ríos, Juan Manuel Rosa-Rosa, and José Palacios. "Treating KRAS-mutant NSCLC: latest evidence and clinical consequences." Therapeutic Advances in Medical Oncology 9, no. 9 (July 24, 2017): 589–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1758834017719829.
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KRAS mutations represent one of the most prevalent oncogenic driver mutations in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). For many years we have unsuccessfully addressed KRAS mutation as a unique disease. The recent widespread use of comprehensive genomic profiling has identified different subgroups with prognostic implications. Moreover, recent data recognizing the distinct biology and therapeutic vulnerabilities of different KRAS subgroups have allowed us to explore different treatment approaches. Small molecules that selectively inhibit KRAS G12C or use of immune checkpoint inhibitors based on co-mutation status are some examples which anticipate that personalized treatment for this challenging disease is finally on the horizon.
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Yanchuk, Oleksandr, and Roman Shulgan. "PROGNOSTIC EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF RESTRICTED HORIZON VISIBILITY ON THE ACCURACY OF POSITION (COORDINATES) OBTAINED WITH GNSS BASED ON EMPIRICAL DATA." Geodesy and cartography 46, no. 2 (July 9, 2020): 67–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/gac.2020.11191.
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In this research, the practical check of regression equation to calculate the prognostic root mean square error (RMSE) of the final point position of the base line in relation to the initial one has been executed. For the investigation, experimental data from three satellite receivers within two days on 5 points have been used. According to the received results, the regression equation to calculate the RMSE of spatial, planned and height position of the final point of the base line in relation to the initial value has been made. These equations allow executing the prognostic evaluation of accuracy for conducting satellite calculations based on data about available obstacles. The dependencies received for the duration of observations sessions for 1 hour, the vectors with the length of 4 km, and the coefficient value of openness from 5.17 to 10.31 have been presented.
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Hug, Eugen B. "Review of skull base chordomas: prognostic factors and long-term results of proton-beam radiotherapy." Neurosurgical Focus 10, no. 3 (March 2001): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.3171/foc.2001.10.3.12.
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Fractionated proton beam radiotherapy has been used for skull base tumors in the United States since the mid-70s, and more than 300 patients in whom diagnosis of chordoma of the skull base has been made have been treated. The ability to achieve high degrees of radiation dose conformity by using protons has resulted in higher radiation doses than can be delivered with conventional radiotherapy in the base of skull. High target volume doses have led to improved tumor control and patient survival. Side effects such as severe toxicity are acceptable considering the alternatives of uncontrolled tumor growth. The authors of various analyses have identified prognostic factors that can be used to predict a patient's chance of treatment success. On the horizon are important technical developments that will further increase dose conformity and increase target doses. In this paper the author reviews long-term outcome data and prognostic predictors for survival of patients with skull base chordomas based on the largest worldwide patient series.
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Worku, Tesfaye, Dinesh Bhattarai, Duncan Ayers, Kai Wang, Chen Wang, Zia ur Rehman, Hira sajjad Talpur, and Liguo Yang. "Long Non-Coding RNAs: the New Horizon of Gene Regulation in Ovarian Cancer." Cellular Physiology and Biochemistry 44, no. 3 (2017): 948–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1159/000485395.
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Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs), a class of non-coding transcripts, have recently been emerging with heterogeneous molecular actions, adding a new layer of complexity to gene-regulation networks in tumorigenesis. LncRNAs are considered important factors in several ovarian cancer histotypes, although few have been identified and characterized. Owing to their complexity and the lack of adapted molecular technology, the roles of most lncRNAs remain mysterious. Some lncRNAs have been reported to play functional roles in ovarian cancer and can be used as classifiers for personalized medicine. The intrinsic features of lncRNAs govern their various molecular mechanisms and provide a wide range of platforms to design different therapeutic strategies for treating cancer at a particular stage. Although we are only beginning to understand the functions of lncRNAs and their interactions with microRNAs (miRNAs) and proteins, the expanding literature indicates that lncRNA-miRNA interactions could be useful biomarkers and therapeutic targets for ovarian cancer. In this review, we discuss the genetic variants of lncRNAs, heterogeneous mechanisms of actions of lncRNAs in ovarian cancer tumorigenesis, and drug resistance. We also highlight the recent developments in using lncRNAs as potential prognostic and diagnostic biomarkers. Lastly, we discuss potential approaches for linking lncRNAs to future gene therapies, and highlight future directions in the field of ovarian cancer research.
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Restrepo-Escobar, Mauricio, Paula A. Granda-Carvajal, Daniel C. Aguirre, Johanna Hernández-Zapata, Gloria M. Vásquez, and Fabián Jaimes. "Predictive models of infection in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: A systematic literature review." Lupus 30, no. 3 (January 6, 2021): 421–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0961203320983462.
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Introduction Having reliable predictive models of prognosis/the risk of infection in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients would allow this problem to be addressed on an individual basis to study and implement possible preventive or therapeutic interventions. Objective To identify and analyze all predictive models of prognosis/the risk of infection in patients with SLE that exist in medical literature. Methods A structured search in PubMed, Embase, and LILACS databases was carried out until May 9, 2020. In addition, a search for abstracts in the American Congress of Rheumatology (ACR) and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) annual meetings’ archives published over the past eight years was also conducted. Studies on developing, validating or updating predictive prognostic models carried out in patients with SLE, in which the outcome to be predicted is some type of infection, that were generated in any clinical context and with any time horizon were included. There were no restrictions on language, date, or status of the publication. To carry out the systematic review, the CHARMS (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) guideline recommendations were followed. The PROBAST tool (A Tool to Assess the Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies) was used to assess the risk of bias and the applicability of each model. Results We identified four models of infection prognosis in patients with SLE. Mostly, there were very few events per candidate predictor. In addition, to construct the models, an initial selection was made based on univariate analyses with no contraction of the estimated coefficients being carried out. This suggests that the proposed models have a high probability of overfitting and being optimistic. Conclusions To date, very few prognostic models have been published on the infection of SLE patients. These models are very heterogeneous and are rated as having a high risk of bias and methodological weaknesses. Despite the widespread recognition of the frequency and severity of infections in SLE patients, there is no reliable predictive prognostic model that facilitates the study and implementation of personalized preventive or therapeutic measures. Protocol registration number: PROSPERO CRD42020171638.
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Coombs, Catherine C., Tony Dickherber, and Brian D. Crompton. "Chasing ctDNA in Patients With Sarcoma." American Society of Clinical Oncology Educational Book, no. 40 (May 2020): e351-e360. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/edbk_280749.
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Liquid biopsies are new technologies that allow cancer profiling of tumor fragments found in body fluids, such as peripheral blood, collected noninvasively from patients with malignancies. These assays are increasingly valuable in clinical oncology practice as prognostic biomarkers, as guides for therapy selection, for treatment monitoring, and for early detection of disease progression and relapse. However, application of these assays to rare cancers, such as pediatric and adult sarcomas, have lagged. In this article, we review the technical challenges of applying liquid biopsy technologies to sarcomas, provide an update on progress in the field, describe common pitfalls in interpreting liquid biopsy data, and discuss the intersection of sarcoma clinical care and commercial assays emerging on the horizon.
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Kononov, Evgeniy, Andrey Klyuev, and Mikhail Tashkinov. "Prediction of Technical State of Mechanical Systems Based on Interpretive Neural Network Model." Sensors 23, no. 4 (February 8, 2023): 1892. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s23041892.
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A classic problem in prognostic and health management (PHM) is the prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL). However, until now, there has been no algorithm presented to achieve perfect performance in this challenge. This study implements a less explored approach: binary classification of the state of mechanical systems at a given forecast horizon. To prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach, tests were conducted on the C-MAPSS sample dataset. The obtained results demonstrate the achievement of an almost maximal performance threshold. The explainability of artificial intelligence (XAI) using the SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) feature contribution estimation method for classification models trained on data with and without a sliding window technique is also investigated.
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Drałus, Grzegorz, Grzegorz Dec, and Damian Mazur. "One day ahead forecasting of energy generating in photovoltaic systems." ITM Web of Conferences 21 (2018): 00023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/itmconf/20182100023.
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The article presents selected methods for forecasting energy generated by a solar system. Short-term forecasts are necessary in planning the work of renewable energy sources and their share in the energy market. Forecasting from the one-day horizon is one of the short-term forecasts. Rear-round prognostic models have been designed using various forecasting methods such as regression, neural networks or time series. On the basis of one day ahead forecasts the accuracy of designed models was assessed. The influence of selected weather factors on forecasts accuracy is also presented, only for models implemented by MLP neural networks. As well as the results of research on the impact of the model structure (as MLP neural network) on the accuracy of forecasts are presented.
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Semyrka, Roman, Michał Maruta, and Andrzej Pasternacki. "PROGNOSTIC ACCUMULATION ZONES FOR OIL AND NATURAL GAS IN THE CRITERIA FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF PETROPHYSICAL PARAMETERS IN THE MAIN DOLOMITE IN GORZOW-PNIEWY AREA / PROGNOSTYCZNE STREFY AKUMULACJI DLA ROPY NAFTOWEJ I GAZU ZIEMNEGO W KRYTERIACH ROZKŁADU PARAMETRÓW PETROFIZYCZNYCH DOLOMITU GŁÓWNEGO W OBSZARZE GORZÓW-PNIEWY." Archives of Mining Sciences 58, no. 4 (December 1, 2013): 1111–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/amsc-2013-0076.
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Abstract The carbonate reservoirs are anisotropic environments in terms of both the quantitative and qualitative evaluations of pore space. The oil-and-gas-bearing Main Dolomite horizon shows diversified lithology, facial development and thickness resulting in complicated, fluid capacity-fluid filtration system. This system influences both the evaluation and exploration perspectives in the Zechstein Main Dolomite (Ca2) from the Gorzów-Pniewy area. In order to clarify this problem and to determine the hydrocarbon accumulation perspectives, analysis of petrophysical parameters based upon the porosimetric measurements was carried on for the Main Dolomite in the study area, where oil and gas accumulations were discovered. The results of porosimetric measurements clearly indicate the heterogeneity of petrophysical parameters of the Main Dolomite referred to lithologically diversified palaeogeographic zones distinguished in the study area. Such analysis, including the hydrocarbon storage capacity of the Main Dolomite, enabled us to evaluate the possible hydrocarbon accumulation related to generation potential of this horizon.
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Sumner, T., A. Fiore-Gartland, M. Hatherill, R. M. G. J. Houben, T. J. Scriba, and R. G. White. "The effect of new Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection on the sensitivity of prognostic TB signatures." International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 25, no. 12 (December 1, 2021): 1001–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.5588/ijtld.21.0323.
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BACKGROUND: Tests that identify individuals at greatest risk of TB will allow more efficient targeting of preventive therapy. The WHO target product profile for such tests defines optimal sensitivity of 90% and minimum sensitivity of 75% for predicting incident TB. The CORTIS (Correlate of Risk Targeted Intervention Study) evaluated a blood transcriptomic signature (RISK11) for predicting incident TB in a high transmission setting. RISK11 is able to predict TB disease progression but optimal prognostic performance was limited to a 6-month horizon.METHODS: Using a mathematical model, we estimated how subsequent Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection may have contributed to the decline in sensitivity of RISK11. We calculated the effect at different RISK11 thresholds (60% and 26%) and for different assumptions about the risk of MTB infection.RESULTS: Modelled sensitivity over 15 months, excluding new infection, was 28.7% (95% CI 12.3–74.1) compared to 25.0% (95% CI 12.7–45.9) observed in the trial. Modelled sensitivity exceeded the minimum criteria (>75%) over a 9-month horizon at the 60% threshold and over 12 months at the 26% threshold.CONCLUSIONS: The effect of new infection on prognostic signature performance is likely to be small. Signatures such as RISK11 may be most useful in individuals, such as household contacts, where probable time of infection is known.
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Gisterek, I., R. Matkowski, E. Suder, A. Lacko, D. Ramsey, J. Szelachowska, and J. Kornafel. "Prognostic role of c-met tyrosine kinase receptor expression in breast carcinoma." Journal of Clinical Oncology 24, no. 18_suppl (June 20, 2006): 10552. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2006.24.18_suppl.10552.
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10552 Background: Hepatocyte growth factor is a pleotropic growth factor that regulates cell proliferation, survival, tumor angiogenesis and metastasis. Its biological effects are mediated through interaction with its receptor: c-met protein.In this study, we evaluated c-met expression in the homogenous group of 99 patients diagnosed with stage II ductal breast carcinomas (G2, G3). We analyzed 5 and 10-years overall (OS) and disease free survival (DFS). Methods: Microscopic studies were performed on formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor tissue, obtained during surgery and stained routinely with haematoxylin and eosin. Expression of c-met was evaluated using a standard immunoperoxidase technique and percentage of cells with protein expression was counted. Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. Results: The expression of c-met was found in 37 (37.37%) tumors, with the strong expression of c-met observed only in 7 (7.07%) specimens. The 5-year DFS in patients with overexpression of c-met was statistically significantly worse (p =0.00493) compared with the group with low or no expression (recurrent rates: 57.14% vs 20.65%). Also with a time horizon of 10 years, high values of c-met expression were associated with the higher rate of recurrences (71.43% vs 30.77%, p = 0.01351). The 5-years OS rate in patients with c-met overexpression was 71.43% compared with 84.78% in the group with low or no expression, but this result did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.30345). Comparable tendency was seen in 10-years OS, which was 42.86% in patients with overexpression and 73.63% with low or no expression (p = 0.06154). Conclusions: The results of the study suggest that c-met overexpression is associated with shorter disease-free survival and it may be a useful prognostic indicator of more aggressive disease in patients with breast carcinoma. No significant financial relationships to disclose.
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Yu, Justin, Tiffany Pham, Narine Wandrey, Mackenzie Daly, and Sana Karam. "Multimodality Management of EBV-Associated Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma." Cancers 13, no. 23 (December 2, 2021): 6078. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers13236078.
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Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a rare cancer of the nasopharyngeal mucosa with a specific geographic predisposition. NPC is often associated with Epstein–Barr Virus (EBV) infection and as a result contains many characteristic biomarkers. Treatment of locally-contained NPC is generally achieved through use of radiotherapy (RT), as part of a multimodality treatment regimen. Induction chemotherapy followed by concurrent RT and platinum-based chemotherapy regimen has emerged as the definitive treatment of choice for locoregionally-advanced NPC. Recently, immunotherapy is finding a role in the treatment of recurrent or metastatic NPC. Immune checkpoint blockade therapies targeted against the programmed death-1 (PD-1) receptor have demonstrated efficacy in early phase clinical trials, with ongoing phase III trials in effect. Biomarkers for treatment efficacy remain an ongoing area of investigation, with important prognostic implications on the horizon.
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Carr, Emma, Susan Lerner, Rick Aultman, Ute Weisgerber-Kriegl, and Michael Keating. "Treatment Effect of First Line Rituximab, Fludarabine and Cyclosphosphamide in a Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Patient Cohort: An Evaluation of Prognostic Factors, Estimated Life Expectancy and Economic Outcomes." Blood 112, no. 11 (November 16, 2008): 2396. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood.v112.11.2396.2396.
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Abstract Background: We evaluated the life-time health outcomes and direct costs of first-line rituximab, fludarabine and cyclosphosphamide (R-FC) treatment for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients in US clinical practice, using long-term data from a retrospective cohort comparison (Tam et al., 2008). Additionally, prognostic factors were examined for association with treatment outcomes. Methods: A Cox analysis was conducted to assess for potential heterogeneity and treatment association with baseline prognostic factors. Baseline prognostic factors included: age, gender, beta-2 microglobulin (β2M) and Rai stage. Different lengths of follow-up in FC (1995–2007, n= 108) and R-FC (1999–2007, n=300) treated patient cohorts were also incorporated into the analysis. In the cost-effectiveness model, patients were assumed to be in one of three health states; PFS, Progressed or Death. The best parametric fit (Weibull) was used to extrapolate PFS beyond the end of the cohort follow-up period to a 30 year life-time horizon. The number of patients in each treatment arm that died while in PFS was based on the maximum of either the observed rate of death or background mortality. Because median overall survival had not been reached, a Markov process was constructed to model the transition from the progressed health state to death. Given the non significant difference in post progression survival by treatment (R-FC or FC), patients transitioning from progression to death were modeled as a single population with mean time to death (Kaplan-Meier) converted to a monthly probability of dying. This approach is conservative in that treatment benefit is exclusively a function of time spent in PFS. To account for quality of life and estimate the Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs), the predicted time in each health state was weighted using CLL utility scores (Hancock et. al. 2002). Direct costs were estimated using Medicare reimbursed rates, MS-DRGs for CLL and published drug prices, and include the cost of administration and adverse events. Costs (in USD) and QALYs were both discounted at 3% per annum. Results: Prognostic factors were evenly distributed between treatment groups. In univariate Cox models, age, Rai stage and β2M were confirmed as prognostic factors. For β2M, the hazard ratio (HR) was 2.41 (1.72–3.38) ≥2x upper limit normal (N) compared to <2N. Similar significant increases were observed in the elderly (>70 years) and patients with Rai C stage. The treatment effect of R-FC versus FC adjusted for β2m, Rai and age (HR 0.54 (0.38–0.77), was broadly similar to univariate estimate (HR 0.57 (0.40–0.81). Compared to FC, R-FC was estimated to generate an additional 2.19 years in mean life expectancy and an additional 2.53 years of PFS. After adjusting for health-related quality of life, the estimated incremental QALYs for R-FC compared to FC was 1.82 years. Assuming a shorter time horizon of 15 years, R-FC generated an additional 1.41 years in mean life expectancy and an additional 2.04 years of PFS versus FC. Total direct costs were higher for R-FC by $22,503 per patient, which was partially offset by a reduction in total medication and monitoring costs incurred in the progressed health state. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $12,382 per QALY gained for R-FC. The results of the sensitivity analysis provided reassurance that the assumptions made were acceptable and that the results held under most plausible assumptions. Conclusion: The treatment benefit of R-FC over FC in this CLL observational cohort is not affected by prognostic factors. R-FC patients experienced longer PFS which translated into a considerable increase in life expectancy at an acceptable cost to the US healthcare system.
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Xu, Qiushi, Tong Liu, and Junjie Wang. "Radiosensitization-Related Cuproptosis LncRNA Signature in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer." Genes 13, no. 11 (November 9, 2022): 2080. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/genes13112080.
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A new treatment modality targeting cuproptosis is gradually entering the public horizon. Cuproptosis is a new form of regulated cell death distinct from ferroptosis, apoptosis, autophagy, and necrosis. Previous studies have discovered that the copper level varies considerably in various cancers and that an increase in copper content is directly associated with the proliferation and metastasis of cancer cells. In non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after radiation, the potential utility of cuproptosis-related long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) is still unclear. This research aimed to develop a prediction signature based on lncRNAs associated with cuproptosis to predict the prognosis of NSCLC patients following radiation. Methods: Expression data of primary tumors and adjacent solid tissues were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, along with the corresponding clinical and mutational data. Univariate and multivariate COX analyses and LASSO regression analyses were performed to obtain a predictive signature of lncRNAs associated with cuproptosis. The data were randomly grouped into a training group used for model construction and a test group used for model validation. The model was validated by drawing a survival curve, risk curve, independent prognostic analysis, ROC curve PFS analysis, etc. Results: The lncRNA signature consisting of six cuproptosis-related lncRNAs (AC104088.1, PPP4R3B-DT, AC006042.3, LUCAT1, HHLA3-AS1, and LINC02029) was used to predict the prognosis of patients. Among them, there were three high-risk lncRNAs (LUCAT1, HHLA3-AS1, and LINC02029) with HR > 1 and three protective lncRNAs (AC104088.1, PPP4R3B-DT, and AC006042.3), with an HR < 1. Data analysis demonstrated that the cuproptosis-related lncRNA signatures could well predict the prognosis of NSCLC patients after radiation. Patients in the high-risk category receive a worse prognosis than those in the low-risk group. Cuproptosis-related risk prediction demonstrated better predictive qualities than age, gender, and pathological stage factors. Conclusion: The risk proposed model can independently predict the prognosis of NSCLC patients after radiotherapy, provide a foundation for the role of cuproptosis-related lncRNAs in NSCLC after radiotherapy, and provide a clinical strategy for radiotherapy combined with cuproptosis in NSCLC patients.
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Antonowicz, Paweł, Kamila Migdał-Najman, and Krzysztof Najman. "Financial predictors of corporate insolvency - assessment of the forecast horizon of variables in models of early warning against corporate bankruptcy." e-mentor 101, no. 4 (2023): 39–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.15219/em101.1626.
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The authors of the study put forward a hypothesis that it is possible to extend the forecast period for the models of discriminant analysis used to assess the risk of enterprise bankruptcy, focusing on the components of these functions in the form of one-dimensional predictors, i.e. the indicators most frequently included in the discriminant functions developed in Poland. Early warning about the growing risk of bankruptcy would be very valuable for any company. The dataset was constructed from all enterprises in Poland that went bankrupt in the years 2007-2013, which was the end of the research project period. Out of the 4,750 business entities that went bankrupt at that time, 2,739 filed financial statements with commercial courts. The main objective was realized using dynamic assessment of the variability of selected one-dimensional predictors of bankruptcy for all of these enterprises. Assessment of the time variability of the indicators under analysis allows conclusions on the predictive possibilities associated with early warning against insolvency of business entities. The results constitute input to the discussion on determination of the longest prognostic horizon that can be adopted in the models of discriminant analysis used to assess the risk of enterprise bankruptcy. Most of them cover an annual forecasting horizon. Only a few authors have attempted to construct models based on data from the two, three, or even four years preceding bankruptcy. The study showed that the main symptoms of the growing risk of bankruptcy in most of the surveyed enterprises are visible much earlier than one year before bankruptcy. This provides an opportunity to correct the predictive models and more time to restructure the company, to prevent bankruptcy. Therefore, the authors of the study have assessed the possibility of extending this forecast period.
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Park, Mi-Suk. "Review of Mass-Forming Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma." Korean Journal of Abdominal Radiology 6, no. 1 (July 15, 2022): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.52668/kjar.2022.00150.
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The incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is highest in Eastern countries, such as Thailand, South Korea, and China, but its incidence and mortality are increasing worldwide. Over recent decades, the worldwide age-standardized incidence for iCCA has been steadily increasing, whereas that for perihilar CCA and distal CCA has been decreasing. The macroscopic growth pattern of CCA is somewhat different according to the anatomic location of the tumor. iCCA can show three main patterns of growth: mass forming, periductal infiltrating, and intraductal growing. Morphologic classification is important to understand the mode of tumor spread, which is critical in predicting a tumor’s resectability and in planning the extent of surgery. Furthermore, different macroscopic growth types are resulting in different imaging findings and different list of differential diagnosis. This review provides a comprehensive and critical overview of current knowledge and what is envisaged on the horizon for iCCA, focusing on mas-forming type.1. Tumor growth pattern2. Histological subtype of iCCA3. Imaging phenotype and differential diagnosis of iCCA4. Staging of iCCA5. Preoperative prognostic prediction of iCCA
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Dreja, Hanna S., Julie Ayton, David Bruce, Julia Lochead, Simon Renshaw, Laura Parton, Bruce J. Hamilton, Samantha Beer, Melanie Munro, and Alejandra Solache. "Knockout validation of antibodies to Ki67: a marker for cellular proliferation." Journal of Immunology 198, no. 1_Supplement (May 1, 2017): 213.10. http://dx.doi.org/10.4049/jimmunol.198.supp.213.10.
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Abstract At Abcam, providing a high level of validation has always been a priority and our strategies are constantly evolving as new technologies are developed. The recent knockout (KO) validation initiative, made possible through a partnership with Horizon Discovery and the use of their CRISPR/Cas9 KO cell lines, addresses both antibody specificity and reproducibility on a large scale. Ki67 is a proliferation marker and determining its expression levels has prognostic and predictive values in cancer (1–5). Hence, it is critical that antibodies used to target Ki67 are highly specific. This study demonstrates the evolving strategies used in our laboratory to validate antibodies to Ki67. The use of a human haploid cell lines where Ki67 expression has been knocked out has unequivocally identified antibodies that bind specifically to Ki67. Utilising this technology has enabled KO validation of antibodies and, at the time of abstract submission, there are over 650 KO validated antibodies on our catalogue. It is our hope that by using this technique we can help to raise industry standards and contribute to the generation of reproducible research.
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Stauder, S., and P. M. Peloso. "POS1125 DUAL ENERGY CT HAS PROGNOSTIC VALUE IN GOUT BEYOND STANDARD CLINICAL MEASURES: A BEST EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS." Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases 80, Suppl 1 (May 19, 2021): 841.2–842. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/annrheumdis-2021-eular.872.
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Background:Dual Energy CT Scan (DECT) can detect monosodium urate crystal deposits in multiple tissues. EULAR gout guidelines (Richette, 2020) recognized the value of DECT in making a clinical diagnosis when joint aspiration is difficult. DECT shows crystal deposits in almost 50% of gout patients without tophi (Dalbeth, 2017). Tophi are known to predict all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (Vincent 2017, Perez-Ruiz 2013) and it is plausible that DECT could as well. A prognostic measure should be reliable and valid. DECT validity would be evident for death, disability and distress.Objectives:This study used a best evidence synthesis approach to synthesize the evidence for DECT as a prognostic measure in gout.Methods:PUBMED and EMBASE were searched from initiation to December 2019; keywords (Dual Energy Computed Tomography OR DECT, gout, tophaceous gout, chronic gout, monosodium urate crystals OR monosodium urate burden OR tophi OR monosodium urate volume OR flares OR pain OR distress OR death OR disability OR function). Human studies in English were considered. Titles, abstracts and full articles were reviewed. A manual search of secondary sources was conducted. Key gaps identified were considered throughout 2020 when reviewing emerging articles and presentations. Data extraction was conducted by both authors; data presented represents consensus.Results:Of 344 articles, 81 titles/abstracts met screening inclusion criteria (24%) in the 2019 search; review of the full manuscript led to 41 articles selected (51%). Additionally, 3 key papers and 2 ACR 2020 presentations were identified through 2020. DECT is highly reliable with inter-class correlation coefficients >0.9. DECT has content validity. Dalbeth (2015) showed DECT and X-Rays findings correlated in tophaceous patients, r=0.70, p<0.001. Hand function correlates with DECT burden, with r2=0.59, p=0.024 (Dalbeth 2007). Dalbeth (2017) showed DECT associated with greater flares at 3 and 12 months (p<0.01) in 152 patients. Pascart (2018) confirmed that subjects with flares had nearly doubled DECT feet volumes (0.9 vs 2.1 cm3, p=0.05) versus those not flaring. Dalbeth (2017) showed abnormal DECT scans occurred in 47% of patients with normal uric acid (<6.0 mg/dL) without palpable tophi and in 90% with elevated uric acid and palpable tophi. DECT is very sensitive to change (Araujo 2015) with 95% volume reduction in 152 patients on pegloticase treated up to 12 months. Three studies show DECT is correlated to cardiovascular risk factor prevalence (Pascart 2020, Gamala 2018, Lee 2017). Marty-Ané reported that DECT volume predicts mortality (Marty-Ané ACR 2020). Limited evidence from 3 studies suggests that the minimum important volume for DECT is 1.0 cm3 at feet and ankles, including Pascart 2020.Conclusion:DECT imaging is highly reliable, has evidence for content validity and is highly sensitive to change. DECT appears to predict future gout flares, cardiovascular risk factor prevalence and mortality. Minimum important DECT volume approximates 1.0 cm3. DECT requires further study but appears to be a relevant outcome for clinical trials and staging gout patients.References:AuthorsJournal, Volume, IssueYearAraujo, E. G., Bayat, S., et al.RMD Open2015Dalbeth, N., Nicolaou, S., et al.Ann Rheum Dis, 77(3)2017Dalbeth, N., Aati, O., et al.Ann Rheum Dis, 74(6)2015Dalbeth, N., Collis, J., et al.Rheumatology, 46(12)2007Gamala, M., Linn-Rasker, S. P., et al.Clinical Rheumatol, 37(7)2018Lee, K., Ryu, S., et al.Clinical Rheumatol, 372017Marty-Ané, A., Norberciak, L., et al.Arthritis Rheumatol 72 (supp 10) [abstract #0954] ACR 2020.2020Pascart, T., Ramon, A., et al.J Clin Med, 9(5)2020Pascart, T., Capon, B., et al.Arthritis Res and Therapy, 20(1)2018Perez-Ruiz, F., Martínez-Indart, L., et al.Ann Rheum Dis, 73(1)2013Richette, P., Doherty, M., et al.Ann Rheum Dis, 79(1)2020Vincent, Z., Gamble, G., et al.J Rheumatol, 44 (3)2017Disclosure of Interests:Sally Stauder: None declared, Paul M. Peloso Shareholder of: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Employee of: Horizon Therapeutics plc.
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Devitt, Michael E., and Robert Dreicer. "Evolving Role of Genomics in Genitourinary Neoplasms." Acta Medica Academica 48, no. 1 (June 26, 2019): 68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5644/ama2006-124.243.
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<p>The aim of this article is to review the current role of genomic testing in the risk, prognosis, and treatment of genitourinary malignancies. The authors selected guidelines, publications, and abstracts relevant to the current and emerging role of genomics in genitourinary cancers. The risk of developing genitourinary cancer can be stratified based on genomic data. Prostate cancer has the strongest degree of heritability, with <em>BRCA1/2 </em>and <em>HOXB13 </em>mutations playing a role in familial disease. Genomic data is on the verge of informing treatment decisions across genitourinary cancers. mCRPC has diverse genomic alterations that represent potential therapeutic targets, including alterations in the AR pathway, DNA damage and repair pathways, cell cycle pathways, PI3K pathway, and Wnt signaling. Genomic alterations in clear cell renal cell carcinoma can inform prognosis and mutations in mTOR pathways predict response to mTOR inhibitors. Urothelial carcinoma can be classified into different subtypes based on gene expression profiling, which provides prognostic information and predicts response to chemotherapy and immunotherapy. Specific mutations have been identified that predict response to therapy including <em>ERCC2 </em>mutations and cisplatin, DNA damage and repair mutations and checkpoint inhibitors, and <em>FGFR3 </em>mutations and FGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors such as erdafitinib.</p><p><strong>Conclusion. </strong>Genitourinary malignancies have not felt the impact of genomic data as greatly as other cancer types. The majority of benefit lies in identifying patients at high risk of genitourinary cancer. Fortunately, breakthroughs are on the horizon that will result in a greater incorporation of genomic information into treatment decisions for patients with genitourinary cancer.</p>
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Aboian, I. A., E. N. Fedotova, A. N. Shevchenko, S. M. Pakus, A. Yu Maximov, E. V. Filatova, I. A. Khomutenko, Е. F. Komarova, and N. K. Guskova. "Current biomarkers of prostate cancer." Research and Practical Medicine Journal 8, no. 4 (December 9, 2021): 96–108. http://dx.doi.org/10.17709/2410-1893-2021-8-4-10.
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Prostate cancer is one of the most common malignancies in men. Early detection of prostate cancer is largely determined by the widely used prostate specific antigen (PSA) blood test. However, as a diagnostic and prognostic test of prostate cancer, PSA has limited specificity, sensitivity and leads to hyper or underdiagnosis, which, in turn, can lead to excessive treatment. There fore, it is very important to develop diagnostic markers that can be used to determine prostate cancer at an early stage of development, assess the possible progression of the disease and prescribe optimal therapy. Significant progress has been made in the discovery of biomarkers for prostate cancer. For example, biomarkers such as %-free PSA, Prostate Health Index (PHI) or 4K score can be used to increase specificity and reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies, while the PCA3 test can be used to reduce the number of repeated biopsies in men with previously negative biopsy. To determine aggressiveness and predict the outcome of the disease, tissue multigenic tests can be used, such as: T2-ERG, ExoDx, SelectMDx and ConfirmMDx, Prolaris, Oncoytype DX, Decipher. The development of such diagnostic tests opens up new opportunities for improving the diagnosis of prostate cancer, prognosis and decision-making on the appointment of therapy. And with the increase in their availability, finally, the possibility of an individual approach to the appointment of treatment for men with prostate cancer appears on the horizon. This review paper presents the data on the most advanced diagnostic biomarkers of prostate cancer.
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Anagiannis, Ioannis, Nikolaos Nikolakis, and Kosmas Alexopoulos. "Energy-Based Prognosis of the Remaining Useful Life of the Coating Segments in Hot Rolling Mill." Applied Sciences 10, no. 19 (September 29, 2020): 6827. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10196827.
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The field of prognostic maintenance aims at predicting the remaining time for a system or component to continue being used under the desired performance. This time is usually named as Remaining Useful Life (RUL). The current study proposes a novel approach for the RUL estimation of coating segments placed on a hot rolling mill machine. A prediction method was developed, providing real-time updates of the RUL prediction during the rolling milling process. The proposed approach performs energy analysis on measurements of segment surface temperatures and hydraulic forces. It uses nonparametric statistical processes to update the predictions, within a prediction horizon/window, indicating the number of remaining products to be processed. To assess the probability of failure within the defined prediction window, Maximum Likelihood Estimation is used. The proposed methodology was implemented in a software prototype in the MATLAB environment and tested in an industrial use case coming from a steel parts manufacturer, facilitating testing and validation of the suggested approach. Real-world data were acquired from the operational machine, while the validation results support that the proposed methodology demonstrates reasonable performance and robustness against product type variations.
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Radocha, Jakub, Vladimír Maisnar, Ludek Pour, Zdenek Adam, Ivan Spicka, Jan Straub, Vlastimil Scudla, et al. "Multiple Myeloma R-ISS Prognostic Stratification System in Real Life Population." Blood 128, no. 22 (December 2, 2016): 3333. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood.v128.22.3333.3333.
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Abstract Introduction: Revised prognostic scoring system R-ISS (standard ISS plus cytogenetic changes) has been introduced as a possible tool for evaluation of patients with multiple myeloma. This system is based on pooled data from various clinical trials but has not been validated in patients´ population outside the clinical trial setting. Aim: To evaluate clinical relevance of R-ISS in real life population of multiple myeloma patients. Methods: Registry of monoclonal gammopathies (RMG) was established in 2007 and has become one of the flagship projects of the Czech Myeloma Group. The registry collects prospective data from patients with myeloma and other gammopathies (https://trials.cba.muni.cz/trialdb2/interface_forms/login_rmg.asp). Registry is regularly monitored and data are validated by an external monitor. Data from registry were retrieved to identify patients in whom all above mentioned parameters were available. These patients were then stratified according to R-ISS and TTP and OS were calculated as primary endpoints. Results: 555 patients (260 females, 295 males, median age 66 years) with multiple myeloma who had full set of necessary data available were identified. Median follow-up of this cohort was 22.2 months. 97 17.5% (97/555) patients were R-ISS stage I, 55.7% 309/555 were R-ISS stage II and 26.8% (149/555) patients were R-ISS III. Median overall survival was not reached for stage I, 3.9 years for stage II and 2.5 years for stage III. The differences were statistically significant (p<0.001, log-rank test). Median time to progression was 3.3 years for stage I, 1.9 years for stage II and 1.3 years for stage III. The differences were statistically significant (p<0.001, log-rank test). Stage I versus II showed HR (95% CI): 2.84 (1.66-4.87), p<0.001 and stage I versus III HR (95% CI): 5.20 (2.99-9.03), p<0.001 for overall survival and HR (95% CI): 2.02 (1.37-2.96), p<0.001 and (95% CI): 2.49 (1.64-3.77), p< 0.001 for time to progression. Similar survival pattern can be seen in a subgroup of patients treated with autologous stem cell transplantation, without autologous stem cell transplantation and the system provides valuable information even in a subgroup of patients who were never treated with novel agents. Figure 1 shows overall survival and figure 2 time to progression of the cohort. Conclusion: Revised ISS provides valuable information about the long term prognosis in a mixed cohort of real life multiple myeloma patients. This system enables to estimate the prognostic category of each specific patient in a horizon of several years ahead. Supported by PRVOUK P37. Table 1 Table 1. Figure 1 Overall survival for R-ISS stages Figure 1. Overall survival for R-ISS stages Figure 2 Time to progression for R-ISS stages Figure 2. Time to progression for R-ISS stages Disclosures Spicka: BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Janssen Cilag: Consultancy, Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria; Millenium: Honoraria. Hájek:Janssen: Honoraria; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; BMS: Honoraria; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy.
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Ragusa, Rosalia, Vincenzo Guardabasso, Maria Alessandra Bellia, Filippo Piana, and Rosalba Quattrocchi. "OP45 HTA And Gender Medicine: Time To Take Action!" International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 39, S1 (December 2023): S12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s026646232300079x.
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IntroductionGender medicine responds to the need for a reassessment of the medical-scientific approach in a gender perspective, to increase knowledge of the different aspects underlying gender differences and the appropriateness/ effectiveness of health interventions.MethodsA policy review of documents prepared by the Italian Ministry of Health on gender medicine was carried out, to investigate the possible areas of intervention of health technology assessment in the development of this interdisciplinary dimension. The areas of highest priority for action have been identified.ResultsIn Italy, the Ministry of Health, with the support of the National Institute of Health, issued a Plan for Application and Dissemination of Gender Medicine in June 2019. Our review shows that for the development of research on the mechanisms of pathogenesis the Italian Plan gives indications on the identification of diagnostic markers, prognostic and predictive response in a gender perspective, but there are no formalized rules that constitute a constraint or an obligation to do so. In Horizon Europe calls, for example, “Pragmatic trials on minimally invasive diagnostics” (HORIZON-MISS-2023-CANCER-01-03) on the other hand, it is required that gender and gender issues should be taken into account in all projects and all data should be disaggregated by gender, socio-economic status and ethnicity. Separating subjects into two groups in the analysis leads to greater complexity. This is even more true when considering the different types of gender. The total number of subjects to be included must likely increase to maintain statistical power in evaluating effects in subgroups. This increase leads to an increase in time and cost, if one needs to provide separate data by sex and even more so by gender. Different statistical tests to be used, according to the type of variables of the primary endpoint, should be considered in the study protocols.ConclusionsIt seems appropriate to suggest reviewing upcoming health technology assessments with an eye to gender medicine. Gender medicine should become a strategic goal of prevention in public health and will strengthen the concept of the patient centrality until the personalization of therapies is achieved.
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Tong, K. B., E. Chen, G. Brink, R. Bender, F. de Snoo, and J. Malin. "Cost-effectiveness of targeting chemotherapy with the 70-gene prognostic signature in early-stage breast cancer (ESBC) patients." Journal of Clinical Oncology 27, no. 15_suppl (May 20, 2009): 6570. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2009.27.15_suppl.6570.
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6570 Background: The 70-gene microarray test (MammaPrint) has been shown to provide additional prognostic information to clinicopathologic risk assessment for women ESBC; however, the cost-effectiveness of this strategy is not well understood. Methods: The objective of this analysis was to estimate the incremental benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of the treatments guided by the 70-gene signature versus Adjuvant! Software (AS) to decide on the use of adjuvant chemotherapy for women ≤61 years with lymph node negative, HER-2 negative ESBC with estrogen receptor (ER) positive or negative disease. A Markov model with a lifetime horizon and three health states (alive without recurrence, death from cancer and death from other causes) was constructed using TreeAge Pro software. Risk classification and patient outcomes data were based on a multi-center 70-gene signature validation study. Efficacy of chemotherapy derived from published meta-analysis of clinical trials. Costs and health utilities were obtained from the literature. Costs and benefits were discounted 3%/year. Results: Compared to AS, the 70-gene signature strategy resulted in 35% of patients being reassigned to a different risk classification and avoided chemotherapy in 9% of patients. In the base case, the 70-gene signature strategy was cost neutral (lifetime costs per patient: $178,811 versus $178,893 for the 70-gene signature and AS strategy). Moreover the 70-gene signature strategy was associated with an increase of 0.13 life years (LYs) and 0.16 quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The model results were sensitive to the cost of 70-gene signature test, cost of adjuvant chemotherapy, and relative risk reduction associated with chemotherapy; however, the 70-gene strategy remained cost-effective across a wide range of assumptions. Conclusions: In this analysis, the 70-gene signature was associated with a reduction in chemotherapy use and an increase in life expectancy. The 70-gene signature appears to be a cost-effective strategy for obtaining additional information to guide the decision to use adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with lymph node negative ESBC. [Table: see text]
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Keam, Bhumsuk, Olena Gorobets, Vincent Vinh-Hung, and Seock-Ah Im. "Lymph Node Ratio after Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Stage II/III Breast Cancer: Prognostic Value Measured with Gini’s Mean Difference of Restricted Mean Survival Times." Cancer Informatics 20 (January 2021): 117693512110516. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/11769351211051675.
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Restricted mean survival time (RMST), recommended for reporting survival, lacks a tool to evaluate multilevel factors. The potential of the Gini’s mean difference of RMSTs (Δ) is explored in a comparison of a lymph node ratio-based classification (LNRc) versus a number-based classification (ypN) applied to stage II/III breast cancer patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy and underwent axillary dissection. Number of positive nodes ( npos) classified patients into ypN0, npos = 0, ypN1, npos = [1,3], ypN2, npos = [4,9], and ypN3, npos ⩾ 10. Ratio npos/( number of nodes examined) of 0, (0,0.20], (0.20,0.65], and >0.65, classified patients into Lnr0 to Lnr3, respectively. Unadjusted and Cox-adjusted RMSTs were computed for the ypN and LNRc’s. At a follow-up time horizon of 72 months for 114 node-negative and 254 node-positive patients, unadjusted ypN0-ypN3 RMSTs were 62.4-41.4 months, Δ = 11.9 months (95%CI: 7.4-16.9), and Lnr0-Lnr3 62.4 to 36.3 months, Δ = 14.0 months (95%CI: 10.1-18.1). Cox models’ ypN1-ypN3 hazard ratios were 1.81-3.30, and Lnr1-Lnr3 1.52-4.39. Δ from Cox-fitted survival were ypN 8.1 months (95%CI: 5.9-10.5), LNRc 10.5 months (95%CI: 8.4-12.8). In conclusion, Gini’s mean difference is applicable to well established data in keeping with the literature on LNRc. It provides an alternative view on the improvement gained with a lymph node ratio-classification over using a number-classification.
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Blakstad, H., E. E. Mendoza Mireles, L. C. Heggebø, H. Magelssen, M. Sprauten, T. B. Johannesen, E. Vik-Mo, et al. "P11.75.B PSEUDOPROGRESSION IN A REAL-WORLD GLIOBLASTOMA COHORT: INCIDENCE, MANAGEMENT, PROGNOSTIC IMPACT, AND ASSOCIATED FACTORS." Neuro-Oncology 25, Supplement_2 (September 1, 2023): ii93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/neuonc/noad137.309.
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Abstract BACKGROUND Radiotherapy remains a cornerstone in glioblastoma (GBM) management. A continued and unmet need in neuro-oncology is efficient non-invasive methods to differentiate post-radiation magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) changes from progressive disease (PD) in GBM patients. The clinical challenge is two-sided; avoid termination of effective therapy in case of pseudoprogression (PsP) and continuation of ineffective therapy in case of PD. We retrospectively assessed incidence, management, prognostic impact, and associated factors with PsP in a real-world GBM patient cohort. MATERIAL AND METHODS Adult (≥18 years) GBM patients diagnosed in the South-Eastern Health Region of Norway from 2015 to 2018, had received radiotherapy, and follow-up MRIs were included. Patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics were analyzed in relationship to re-evaluated MRI examinations at three and six months post-radiation using response assessment in neuro-oncology criteria. RESULTS PsP incidences at three and six months post-radiation were 20% and 8%, respectively. In adjusted analyses, methylated O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter and absence of neurological deterioration were associated with PsP at both three (p<0.001 and p=0.04, respectively) and six months (p=0.003 and p=0.04, respectively) post-radiation. Patients with PsP at MRI three months post-radiation had a median OS of 24.8 months compared to 11.4 months for patients with PD and 18.7 months in patients with stable disease (SD); the difference was significant only when comparing patients with PsP and PD (p<0.001). There was no survival benefit of treatment change for patients retrospectively evaluated as PD three months post-radiation (p=0.8). Median OS for patients in the PsP group was 31.8 months and thus longer than in the PD group (13.1 months) and the SD group (24.1 months). The difference was only significant when comparing patients with PsP and PD (p<0.001). CONCLUSION PsP incidence in this retrospective material was similar to previous reports. In addition to the previously described correlation of methylated MGMT promoter with PsP, we also found that the absence of neurological deterioration significantly correlated to PsP. Continuation of temozolomide courses did not compromise survival for patients with PD at three months post-radiation; therefore, we recommend continuing adjuvant temozolomide courses in case of inconclusive MRI findings. Funding: European Union's Horizon 2020 Programme European Research Council Grant 758657-ImPRESS.
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Lesur, Olivier, Yves Berthiaume, Gilbert Blaise, Pierre Damas, Éric Deland, Jean-Gilles Guimond, and René P. Michel. "Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: 30 Years Later?" Canadian Respiratory Journal 6, no. 1 (1999): 71–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/1999/812476.
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Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was first described about 30 years ago. Modern definitions and statements have recently been proposed to describe ARDS accurately, but none is perfect. Diffuse alveolar damage is the basic pathological pattern most commonly observed in ARDS, and the term includes permeability edema. The alveolar epithelium of the alveolar-capillary barrier is clearly a key component requiring repair, given its multipotent functional activity. Lung inflammation and neutrophil accumulation are essential markers of disease in ARDS, and a wide variety of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines have been described in the alveolar fluid and blood of patients. These molecules still have to prove their value as diagnostic or prognostic biomarkers of ARDS.Supportive therapy in ARDS improved in the past decade; mechanical ventilation with lung protective strategies and patient positioning are gaining interest, but the indications for corticosteroids for ARDS are still debated. Nitric oxide may have a place in the treatment of one-third of patients. Novel approaches, such as surfactant replacement and liquid ventilation, may further improve supportive therapy. Innovative interventions may be on the horizon in treatments that help to resolve or modulate common pathways of ARDS, such as inflammation (eg, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor) or epithelial repair (eg, keratinocyte growth factor).
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Bhardwaj, Prarthna V., Yue Wang, Elizabeth Brunk, Philip M. Spanheimer, and Yara G. Abdou. "Advances in the Management of Early-Stage Triple-Negative Breast Cancer." International Journal of Molecular Sciences 24, no. 15 (August 5, 2023): 12478. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijms241512478.
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Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a subtype of breast cancer with both inter- and intratumor heterogeneity, thought to result in a more aggressive course and worse outcomes. Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) has become the preferred treatment modality of early-stage TNBC as it allows for the downstaging of tumors in the breast and axilla, monitoring early treatment response, and most importantly, provides important prognostic information that is essential to determining post-surgical therapies to improve outcomes. It focuses on combinations of systemic drugs to optimize pathologic complete response (pCR). Excellent response to NAT has allowed surgical de-escalation in ideal candidates. Further, treatment algorithms guide the systemic management of patients based on their pCR status following surgery. The expanding knowledge of molecular pathways, genomic sequencing, and the immunological profile of TNBC has led to the use of immune checkpoint inhibitors and targeted agents, including PARP inhibitors, further revolutionizing the therapeutic landscape of this clinical entity. However, subgroups most likely to benefit from these novel approaches in TNBC remain elusive and are being extensively studied. In this review, we describe current practices and promising therapeutic options on the horizon for TNBC, surgical advances, and future trends in molecular determinants of response to therapy in early-stage TNBC.
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Virrantaus, Hélène, Helena Liira, Tatiana Posharina, Aleksandra Sulg, Teemu Mäntylä, Mari Kanerva, Sini Laakso, et al. "Prognosis of patients with long COVID symptoms: a protocol for a longitudinal cohort study at a primary care referred outpatient clinic in Helsinki, Finland." BMJ Open 13, no. 10 (October 2023): e072935. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072935.
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IntroductionAfter COVID-19, many continue to experience persistent debilitating symptoms, that is, long COVID. Its most prevalent symptoms are chest pain, difficulties with breathing, painful muscles, ageusia or anosmia, tingling extremities and general tiredness. This paper describes the protocol of the Long COVID Cohort Study to assess the prognosis and prognostic determinants of patients with long COVID by implementing patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), patient-reported experience measures (PREMs) and clinical examinations during a 1-year follow-up.Methods and analysisThis is a prospective, single-site cohort study consisting of administering questionnaires and clinical examinations to adult patients referred to the Clinic for Long-Term Effects of COVID-19 at Helsinki University Hospital (Hospital district of Helsinki and Uusimaa). The referrals are from all healthcare units within HUS and other hospital districts during years 2021–2023. All admitted patients have had laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. The targeted study sample size is 500 participants. The questionnaires are administered at 0, 3, 6 and 12 months. The main outcome variables are the changes in self-reported functional abilities and quality of life. In addition, we will evaluate functional abilities at baseline using neurocognitive evaluation, a 6MWT and a measurement of hand grip strength. The Long COVID Cohort Study will form a quality register for the clinic and characterise the first systematic collection of PROMs, PREMs, questionnaire and clinical examinations related to long COVID in Finland. The Study belongs to a study consortium Long COVID—HORIZON-HLTH-2021-DISEASE-04 that aims to reveal the biomechanisms of long COVID.Ethics and disseminationThis study has been approved by the Helsinki University Hospital research ethics committee board, ID HUS/1493/2021 on 6 March 2021. All study participants sign written informed consent for participation. The study findings will be reported for publication in peer-reviewed journals.Trial registration numberNCT05699512; Pre-results.
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Piotrowski, Paweł, Mirosław Parol, Piotr Kapler, and Bartosz Fetliński. "Advanced Forecasting Methods of 5-Minute Power Generation in a PV System for Microgrid Operation Control." Energies 15, no. 7 (April 4, 2022): 2645. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15072645.
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This paper concerns very-short-term (5-Minute) forecasting of photovoltaic power generation. Developing the methods useful for this type of forecast is the main aim of this study. We prepared a comprehensive study based on fragmentary time series, including 4 full days, of 5 min power generation. This problem is particularly important to microgrids’ operation control, i.e., for the proper operation of small energy micro-systems. The forecasting of power generation by renewable energy sources on a very-short-term horizon, including PV systems, is very important, especially in the island mode of microgrids’ operation. Inaccurate forecasts can lead to the improper operation of microgrids or increasing costs/decreasing profits for microgrid operators. This paper presents a short description of the performance of photovoltaic systems, particularly the main environmental parameters, and a very detailed statistical analysis of data collected from four sample time series of power generation in an existing PV system, which was located on the roof of a building. Different forecasting methods, which can be employed for this type of forecast, and the choice of proper input data in these methods were the subject of special attention in this paper. Ten various prognostic methods (including hybrid and team methods) were tested. A new, proprietary forecasting method—a hybrid method using three independent MLP-type neural networks—was a unique technique devised by the authors of this paper. The forecasts achieved with the use of various methods are presented and discussed in detail. Additionally, a qualitative analysis of the forecasts, achieved using different measures of quality, was performed. Some of the presented prognostic models are, in our opinion, promising tools for practical use, e.g., for operation control in low-voltage microgrids. The most favorable forecasting methods for various sets of input variables were indicated, and practical conclusions regarding the problem under study were formulated. Thanks to the analysis of the utility of different forecasting methods for four analyzed, separate time series, the reliability of conclusions related to the recommended methods was significantly increased.
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Tusheva, V. V. "Conceptual approaches to opening the essence of scientific-research culture of the future music teacher." Musical art in the educological discourse, no. 2 (2017): 31–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.28925/2518-766x.20172.3138.
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Actuality of the problem of development of scientific-research culture of future music teachers is reasonable in the article, that it is related to the terms of post of nonclassical science, for which the processes of coevolution and globalization are common, expansions of gnosiology horizon, isomorphism of scientific and cultural dynamics. In this context it is significant rethinking of pedagogical impact of science on personal development of future music teachers, purposeful formation of their scientific-research culture as the capacity for mental analytical and synthetic, evolutionary prognostic activity, creating scientific strategies and research-based search of various “logics” thinking, multicultural dialogue, scientific substantiation multisystem pedagogical and educational technology, possessing categorial-conceptual apparatus of musical and pedagogical theory and practice and establishment of individual concept of the solution of scientific problems in the field of musical education on this base. The purpose of the article is to highlight the conceptual approaches to the concept of scientificresearch culture of future music teachers in the context of professional art education.On the basis of phenomenological analysis and polyparadigmal approach as an integrative unity of scientific and methodological approaches, concepts and theories, the concept of research culture of future music teachers is revealed, which makes it possible, in a holistic and systematic way based on interdisciplinary strategies, to outline the peculiarities of the functioning and development of this phenomenon in a multidimensional educational and artistic environment.
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Jagirdar, Jaishree. "Application of Immunohistochemistry to the Diagnosis of Primary and Metastatic Carcinoma to the Lung." Archives of Pathology & Laboratory Medicine 132, no. 3 (March 1, 2008): 384–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5858/2008-132-384-aoittd.
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Abstract Context.—Immunohistochemistry is a very valuable and often used tool in the differential diagnosis of lung carcinomas whether primary or secondary to the lung. The most useful application is in distinguishing primary lung tumors from metastatic tumors to the lung from common sites (colon, breast, prostate, pancreas, stomach, kidney, bladder, ovaries, and uterus). Immunohistochemistry also aids in the separation of small cell carcinoma from non–small cell carcinoma and carcinoids particularly in small biopsy specimens limited by artifact. Although there is no “lung-specific tumor marker,” with the help of a relatively restricted marker, thyroid transcription factor 1, it is possible to separate a lung primary from a metastasis with a reasonable degree of certainty. Another lung-specific marker on the horizon is napsin A, which appears to complement thyroid transcription factor 1 in defining a lung primary. Objective.—To present a practical review and to critique commonly used markers in the differential diagnosis of lung neoplasms and to list valuable immunohistochemical prognostic markers that the pathologist is called on to perform and interpret. Data Sources.—A comprehensive PubMed data search and personal practical experience. Conclusions.—With a panel of immunohistochemical markers, it is possible to distinguish or narrow down most lung neoplasms and separate them into meaningful therapeutic categories. In the future as more proteomic and genomic data surface, immunohistochemical markers to newly discovered antigens may become a routine part of prognostication.
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Zewde, Makda Getachew, George Morales, Isha Gandhi, Umut Ozbek, Paibel Aguayo-Hiraldo, Francis A. Ayuk, Janna Baez, et al. "Prognostic Value of Elafin in Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease." Blood 138, Supplement 1 (November 5, 2021): 3900. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood-2021-154302.
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Abstract Background: A major cause of mortality in patients receiving hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT) is acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD), a multiorgan disorder that includes the skin, liver and gastrointestinal tract. We have previously identified elafin, a protease inhibitor overexpressed in inflamed epidermis, as a diagnostic biomarker of GVHD in the skin, the most commonly involved GVHD organ. However, our initial study was limited to a subset of patients with isolated skin GVHD. The main driver of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) in HCT patients is GI GVHD. Two biomarkers, Regenerating islet-derived 3a (REG3α) and Suppressor of tumorigenesis 2 (ST2), have since been validated as biomarkers of GI GVHD that predict long-term outcomes in patients treated for GVHD. We undertook this study to determine the utility of elafin as a prognostic biomarker of acute GVHD in the general population of previously unstudied acute GVHD patients, and to compare it to ST2 and REG3α. Study Design: 526 patients who received systemic corticosteroid treatment for skin GVHD were analyzed from the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC), which includes patients from 25 HCT centers. We used ELISA to measure serum concentrations of elafin, ST2 and REG3α. Patients were divided randomly into equal training and validation sets; and we developed a competing risk regression model for 6-month NRM using elafin concentration in the training set. We developed additional models for 6-month NRM using concentrations of ST2 and REG3α, or the combination of all three biomarkers as predictors. We then constructed ROC curves to evaluate the predictive accuracy of each model and to analyze the ability of each model to stratify patients into high- and low-risk groups. We analyzed the cumulative incidence of 6-month NRM and overall survival in each model and compared the accuracy of each model in the validation set. Results: The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) for elafin alone was 0.55 whereas it was 0.75 and statistically superior (P = 0.02) for the combination of ST2 and REG3α. The combination of 3 biomarkers produced an AUROC of 0.76 that was not significantly better than the two biomarker model (P = 0.10). Elafin concentrations, either alone or in combination with ST2 and REG3α, did not produce higher hazard ratios of NRM (data not shown). Patients in the low-risk elafin group paradoxically demonstrated a higher incidence of 6-month NRM, although this difference was not statistically significant (17% vs. 11%, P=0.19), and both overall survival at 6 months (68% vs. 68%, P>0.99) and four-week response (78% vs. 78%, P=0.98) were similar in the low- and high-risk elafin groups (Figure 1). As demonstrated in previous data sets, the combination of ST2 and REG3α divided patients into two groups with a nearly five-fold difference in NRM (6.7% vs. 31%, P <0.001). Conclusion: We demonstrated that serum elafin concentrations measured at the initiation of systemic treatment for acute GVHD in a multicenter population of patients treated systemically for acute GVHD do not predict 6-month NRM, overall survival, or treatment response. As seen in previous studies, serum concentrations of the GI GVHD biomarkers ST2 and REG3α were significant predictors of NRM and the addition of elafin levels did not improve their accuracy. These results underscore the importance of GI disease in driving NRM in patients who develop acute GVHD. Figure 1. Cumulative incidence of nonrelapse mortality and overall survival in high and low risk groups Six-month cumulative incidences of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) in high (solid line) and low (dotted line) risk groups defined by optimized biomarker thresholds (upper panels) and six-month overall survival estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method (lower panels). (A) Cumulative incidence of NRM (14%) and overall survival (75%) in the total validation set (N=263). (B) Cumulative incidence of NRM in the low (N=150) and high (N=113) elafin group (17% vs. 11%, P=0.19). Overall survival in the low and high elafin group (68% vs. 68%, P > 0.99). (C) Cumulative incidence of NRM in the low (N=175) and high (N=88) ST2 + REG3a group (6.7 vs. 31%, P < 0.001). Overall survival in the low and high ST2 + REG3a group (77% vs. 51%, P < 0.001). (D) Cumulative incidence of NRM in the low (N=180) and high (N=83) elafin + ST2 + REG3a group (7.0 vs. 30%, P < 0.001). Overall survival in the low and high elafin + ST2 + REG3a group (79% vs. 64%, P < 0.001). Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Ozbek: Viracor: Patents & Royalties: GVHD biomarker patent with royalties from Viracor. DeFilipp: Omeros, Corp.: Consultancy; Incyte Corp.: Research Funding; Regimmune Corp.: Research Funding; Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc: Consultancy. Grupp: Novartis, Kite, Vertex, and Servier: Research Funding; Jazz Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy, Other: Steering committee, Research Funding; Novartis, Roche, GSK, Humanigen, CBMG, Eureka, and Janssen/JnJ: Consultancy; Novartis, Adaptimmune, TCR2, Cellectis, Juno, Vertex, Allogene and Cabaletta: Other: Study steering committees or scientific advisory boards. Hexner: Blueprint medicines: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Tmunity Therapeutics: Research Funding; PharmaEssentia: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Kitko: Co-investigator on two NIH grants as part of the cGVHD consortium: Research Funding; Vanderbilt University Medical Center: Current Employment; PER: Other: PER - CME educational talks about GVHD; Horizon: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Qayed: Novartis: Honoraria; Mesoblast: Honoraria; Medexus: Honoraria. Reshef: ilead, BMS, Precision, Immatics, Atara, Takeda, Shire, Pharmacyclics, Incyte: Research Funding; Bayer: Consultancy; Gilead and Novartis: Honoraria; BMS, Regeneron, TScan, Synthekine, Atara, Jasper, Bayer: Consultancy. Levine: Incyte: Consultancy, Research Funding; Viracor: Patents & Royalties: GVHD biomarker patent with royalties from Viracor; Mesoblast: Consultancy, Research Funding; Equillium Bio: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; X4 Pharmaceuticals: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Talaris Therapeutics: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Jazz Pharmaceuticals: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Omeros: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Symbio: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Biogen: Research Funding; Kamada: Research Funding. Ferrara: Eurofins Viracor: Consultancy, Other: Royalties. Chen: Incyte: Consultancy; Gamida: Consultancy.
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Zeng, Jing, Ramesh Rengan, Christina S. Baik, Keith D. Eaton, Bernardo H. L. Goulart, Sylvia Lee, Renato G. Martins, et al. "Prognostic role of mid-treatment PET/CT and plasma cytokines in patients undergoing chemoradiation for locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC)." Journal of Clinical Oncology 38, no. 15_suppl (May 20, 2020): 9040. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2020.38.15_suppl.9040.
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9040 Background: Patients with unresectable LA-NSCLC are treated with concurrent chemoradiation (CRT) and consolidation immunotherapy with survival that range from months to years or even decades. Early predictive biomarkers have potential to identify patients who are unlikely to benefit from continuing standard of care therapy and require a change in management. We investigated biomarkers that are widely available (PET/CT scan and plasma cytokine levels) to develop early predictors (mid-CRT) of survival in a phase II clinical trial of chemoradiation for LA-NSCLC. Methods: 37 Patients with AJCC v7 stage IIB-IIIB NSCLC were prospectively enrolled on the FLARE-RT trial (NCT02773238) from 2016-9. All patients underwent chemoradiation; 18 also received adjuvant durvalumab. PET/CT exams were performed at week 3 of CRT and response status was pre-defined by published metrics. 21 patients consented to peripheral blood collection at baseline and week 3, and plasma levels of 43 common inflammatory cytokines were measured. Bootstrapping over 100 iterations of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was performed to reduce feature dimensionality and guard against false discoveries. Cox regression of selected cytokine levels and PET response status, as well as time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, were evaluated for associations to overall survival (OS). Results: Median follow-up was 18 months with 1-year OS 81% and PFS 52%. Mid-CRT PET response (as determined by pre-defined metrics) was strongly associated with OS (HR 5.6 [1.4-22.0], p = 0.015) after adjusting for radiation target volume, with 1-yr OS 94% for responders vs. 68% for non-responders (p = 0.017). Plasma TNFα level was also prognostic for OS (HR 1.9 [1.1-3.5], p = 0.030). TNFα retained significance for OS (HR 2.3 [1.2-4.6], p = 0.016) after adjusting for PET response. Bivariate mid-CRT PET response and TNFα generated a parsimonious model to predict OS (AUC = 0.85, 18-month horizon). Conclusions: Risk stratification for long-term survival after chemoradiation in patients with LA-NSCLC may be achievable based on mid-chemoradiation assessment of widely available biomarkers (PET imaging and plasma TNFα level). Combined functional imaging and peripheral blood biomarkers will be validated in a larger sample of our trial cohort, along with other independent patient populations. Clinical trial information: NCT02773238.
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De Pater, Ingeborg, and Mihaela Mitici. "Model-based Remaining-Useful-Life prognostics for aircraft Cooling Units." PHM Society European Conference 6, no. 1 (June 29, 2021): 8. http://dx.doi.org/10.36001/phme.2021.v6i1.2827.
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Prognostics for the Remaining-Useful-Life (RUL) of aircraft components are crucial to support efficient aircraft maintenance planning and, in particular, to limit unscheduled maintenance due to unexpected component failures. As such, predictive methods for the RUL of aircraft components are increasingly a priority for aircraft Maintenance, Repair and Operations (MROs).
In this paper we develop model-based RUL prognostics for aircraft Cooling Units using operational data recorded during the flights of several wide-body aircraft. A Cooling Unit is a vapor cycle refrigeration unit consisting of a condenser, a flash tank, an evaporator and a compressor. After some time of usage, the filter of these Cooling Units is clogged with burned oil, moist and sludge from the compressor. This accelerates the wear of the components. Long time utilization of these components in these conditions leads to a failure.
To model the degradation of the Cooling Units, we use an exponential functional form for the degradation. Together with sequential Monte Carlo methods, we estimate the probability distribution of the RUL of these components. The exponential functional form of the degradation is based on the fact that the cumulative damage in the components has an effect on the degradation rate. It has been shown that an exponential model is a good approximation for non-linear degradation processes like corrosion, bearing degradation, or deterioration of LED lighting. In fact, the Cooling Units can also be seen as subject to corrosion and accelerated wear.
We evaluate our RUL prognostics for various prediction horizons, i.e., at 30, 20 and 10 flight cycles before failure. The results show that our proposed methodology is able to estimate the RUL of the Cooling Units well, and that the uncertainty associated with the prognostics decreases as the prediction horizon decreases, i.e., as the components approach failure. The choice of the prediction horizon is relevant from the point of view of MROs, which re-evaluate periodically their aircraft maintenance schedules. In practice, regular maintenance checks are scheduled every two weeks. Having accurate RUL prognostics over such time horizons enables the maintenance planners to better plan tasks, limiting unscheduled failures. In addition, the fact that we estimate the uncertainty associated with the RUL prognostics enables the maintenance planners to prioritize the maintenance of the components.
Overall, our results provide support for maintenance planners to make informed and efficient maintenance schedules.
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Ziembińska, Paulina. "The importance of data revisions for statistical inference." Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician 66, no. 2 (February 26, 2021): 7–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.7387.
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The aim of the study is a quantitative analysis of revisions conducted by means of a new, real-time macroeconomic dataset for Poland, designed on the basis of the Statistical bulletin (Biuletyn statystyczny) published by Statistics Poland, covering the period from as early as 1995 until 2017. Polish data have positively verified a number of hypotheses concerning the impact of data revisions on the modelling process. Procedures assessing the properties of time series can yield widely discrepant results, depending on the extent to which the applied data have been revised. A comparison of the fitted ARIMA models for series of initial and final data demonstrates that the fitted models are similar for the majority of variables. In the cases where the form of the model is identical for both series, the coefficients retain their scale and sign. Most differences between coefficients result from a different structure of the fitted model, which causes differences in the autoregressive structure and can have a considerable impact on the ex ante inference. A prognostic experiment confirmed these observations. For a large number of variables, the total impact of revisions on the forecasting process exceeds 10%. Extreme cases, where the impact goes beyond 100%, or situations where data have a direct impact on the forecast sign, are also relatively frequent. Taking these results into account by forecasters could significantly improve the quality of their predictions. The forecast horizon has a minor impact on these conclusions. The article is a continuation of the author's work from 2017.
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Buchanan, V., S. Griffin, J. Lee, E. Mckinney, P. Kinnon, and K. HILLS. "P195 Cost-effectiveness of a 17-gene classifier to guide initial treatment choice in Crohn’s disease in the UK." Journal of Crohn's and Colitis 14, Supplement_1 (January 2020): S236. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ecco-jcc/jjz203.324.
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Abstract Background PredictSURE IBD™ is a CE-marked whole blood-based biomarker test that predicts long-term clinical outcomes in inflammatory bowel disease (Crohn’s disease, CD and ulcerative colitis, UC). PredictSURE IBD™ uses a 17-gene qPCR-based classifier to stratify patients into two prognostic subgroups, high and low risk. High-risk patients experience significantly more aggressive disease than low-risk patients, with the need for earlier and more frequent treatment escalation over time. Early stratification could enable personalised treatment strategies, such as ‘top-down’ use of biologics in high-risk patients. Our objective was to examine the cost-effectiveness of PredictSURE IBD™ in guiding the use of early biologic therapy in newly diagnosed CD patients in the UK. Methods A decision tree leading into a Markov state-transition model was constructed in MS Excel to compare two treatment approaches: (1) standard of care therapy following established UK clinical guidelines, consisting of sequences of immunomodulator followed by biologic upon relapse (‘step-up’ treatment), (2) targeted therapy guided by PredictSURE IBD™, whereby patients identified as high-risk receive sequences of anti-TNF biologic treatment followed by other biologic classes upon relapse (‘top-down’ treatment), Figure 1. Parameters were informed by patient data from PredictSURE IBD™ clinical studies and the literature. Results Top-down treatment guided by PredictSURE IBD™ resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £7,179 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), with £1,852 incremental costs and 0.258 incremental QALYs vs. standard of care generated over a 15-year time horizon. Additional costs relating to earlier biologic use were offset by reductions in the costs of flares, hospitalisations and surgery. Incremental QALYs were driven by increased time spent in remission and improved quality of life from reduced flares and surgery. The model was most sensitive to the time horizon, rates of mucosal healing on top-down vs. step-up therapy, the costs of hospitalisation and the costs and quality of life in the severe disease health state. Conclusion Modelling shows that upfront use of biologic guided by PredictSURE IBD™ could substantially improve clinical outcomes for high-risk patients by increasing remission rates and reducing flares, surgery and treatment escalations. The ICER for PredictSURE IBD™ was well below the £20–£30k/QALY threshold used by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Top-down treatment guided by PredictSURE IBD™ would not only represent a treatment paradigm shift for CD patients but would also be a highly cost-effective use of resources in the UK National Health Service.
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Razavi-Far, Roozbeh, Shiladitya Chakrabarti, Mehrdad Saif, Enrico Zio, and Vasile Palade. "Extreme Learning Machine Based Prognostics of Battery Life." International Journal on Artificial Intelligence Tools 27, no. 08 (December 2018): 1850036. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218213018500367.
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This paper presents a prognostic scheme for estimating the remaining useful life of Lithium-ion batteries. The proposed scheme utilizes a prediction module that aims to obtain precise predictions for both short and long prediction horizons. The prediction module makes use of extreme learning machines for one-step and multi-step ahead predictions, using various prediction strategies, including iterative, direct and DirRec, which use the constant-current experimental capacity data for the estimation of the remaining useful life. The data-driven prognostic approach is highly dependent on the availability of high quantity of quality observations. Insufficient amount of available data can result in unsatisfactory prognostics. In this paper, the prognostics scheme is utilized to estimate the remaining useful life of a battery, with insufficient direct data available, but taking advantage of observations available from a fleet of similar batteries with similar working conditions. Experimental results show that the proposed prognostic scheme provides a fast and efficient estimation of the remaining useful life of the batteries and achieves superior results when compared with various state-of-the-art prediction techniques.
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Lamond, N. W. D., C. Skedgel, D. Rayson, L. Lethbridge, and T. Younis. "The potential economic impact of the 21-gene recurrence score: Guided chemotherapy in a population-based cohort with node-negative and node-positive early-stage breast cancer." Journal of Clinical Oncology 29, no. 27_suppl (September 20, 2011): 201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2011.29.27_suppl.201.
Full textAbstract:
201 Background: The 21-gene recurrence score (Oncotype DX: RS) appears to augment clinical-pathological prognostication and predicts adjuvant chemotherapy (chemo) benefits in patients with node-negative (N-) and node-positive (N+) hormone-receptor positive early-stage breast cancer. Economic analyses suggest that RS-guided chemo is a cost-effective strategy in N- breast cancer, but no evaluations were reported for N+ disease based on pre RS chemo utilization in clinical practice. We examined the cost-utility (CU) of a RS-guided chemo strategy, compared to current practice without RS in a population based cohort, in N- and N+ early-stage breast cancer. Methods: A generic state-transition model was developed to compute cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) over a 25-year horizon for patients with hormone-receptor positive early-stage breast cancer considered for chemo. We examined outcomes with and without chemo in RS-untested cohorts and in those with low, intermediate and high RS based on the reported prognostic and predictive impact of the RS. Chemo utilizations (current vs RS-guided), costs and utilities were derived from a Nova Scotia population based cohort, local resources and the literature. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for key model assumptions/parameters. Results: RS-guided chemo strategy is associated with incremental costs and QALY gains compared to chemo with no RS testing in both N- and N+ patients. The resultant CU ratios are $17,141/QALY and $5,772/QALY for N- and N+ disease, respectively. These CU ratios are well below commonly quoted thresholds and were most sensitive to RS-distribution, upfront chemo costs, chemo utilization rates and relative benefits of chemo in various RS-strata. Conclusions: RS-guided chemo in a population based cohort appears to be a cost-effective strategy, compared to chemo with no RS testing, in N- and N+ early-stage breast cancer.