Relevant bibliographies by topics / Probability discounting

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Academic literature on the topic 'Probability discounting'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 21 February 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Probability discounting"

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Weatherly, Jeffrey N., Thomas V. Petros, Harpa L. Jόnsdόttir, Adam Derenne, and Joseph C. Miller. "Probability Alters Delay Discounting, but Delay Does Not Alter Probability Discounting." Psychological Record 65, no. 2 (November 8, 2014): 267–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40732-014-0102-3.

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YOSHINO, Toshihiko, Tetsuo YAMAGUCHI, Yuriko JIKKO, and Hirota OKOUCHI. "Probability discounting of food reward." Proceedings of the Annual Convention of the Japanese Psychological Association 74 (September 20, 2010): 3PM106. http://dx.doi.org/10.4992/pacjpa.74.0_3pm106.

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Thomas, Katie B., Adam Derenne, and Jeffrey N. Weatherly. "Delay and probability discounting in the context of gambling function and expectancies." Journal of Gambling Issues, no. 30 (May 1, 2015): 35. http://dx.doi.org/10.4309/jgi.2015.30.6.

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The current study investigated the relationship between two forms of discounting (delay and probability) and two measures of factors that may maintain gambling behavior (behavioral contingencies and expectancies). Participants (272 undergraduates) completed discounting questions for scenarios of gaining or losing $1,000 or $100,000 with uncertain or delayed outcomes. They also filled out the South Oaks Gambling Screen, the Gambling Functional Assessment -Revised, and the Gambling Expectancies Questionnaire. Results showed that gambling for positive reinforcement was consistently the best predictor of discounting, suggesting that the function of gambling behavior may be a better predictor of discounting than are the emotional expectancies of gambling. However, the direction of the relationship was inconsistent, with function negatively predicting discounting of both uncertain gains and losses. No consistent relationship was found between discounting and gambling for negative reinforcement or emotional expectancies. Results were generally the same when non-gamblers were excluded from the analyses. The results suggest that studying gambling function may be an informative pursuit.
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Yamashita, Hiroshi, and Toshihiko Yoshino. "Probability discounting in a game situation." Proceedings of the Annual Convention of the Japanese Psychological Association 79 (September 22, 2015): 2AM—108–2AM—108. http://dx.doi.org/10.4992/pacjpa.79.0_2am-108.

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Weitzman, Martin L. "Gamma Discounting." American Economic Review 91, no. 1 (March 1, 2001): 260–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.1.260.

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By incorporating the probability distribution directly into the analysis, this paper proposes a new theoretical approach to resolving the perennial dilemma of being uncertain about what discount rate to use in cost-benefit analysis. A numerical example is constructed from the results of a survey based on the opinions of 2,160 economists. The main finding is that even if every individual believes in a constant discount rate, the wide spread of opinion on what it should be makes the effective social discount rate decline significantly over time. Implications and ramifications of this proposed “gamma-discounting” approach are discussed. (JEL H43)
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Jikko, Yuriko, and Hiroto Okouchi. "Real and hypothetical rewards in probability discounting." Japanese journal of psychology 78, no. 3 (2007): 269–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.4992/jjpsy.78.269.

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Dai, Zhijie, Randolph C. Grace, and Simon Kemp. "Reward contrast in delay and probability discounting." Learning & Behavior 37, no. 3 (August 2009): 281–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/lb.37.3.281.

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Lawyer, Steven R. "Probability and delay discounting of erotic stimuli." Behavioural Processes 79, no. 1 (September 2008): 36–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.beproc.2008.04.009.

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Kyonka, Elizabeth G. E., and Nicola S. Schutte. "Probability discounting and gambling: a meta-analysis." Addiction 113, no. 12 (August 31, 2018): 2173–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/add.14397.

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Asgarova, Rana, Anne C. Macaskill, and Maree J. Hunt. "Gain–Loss Asymmetry in Experiential Probability Discounting." Psychological Record 70, no. 3 (February 5, 2020): 359–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40732-020-00379-1.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Probability discounting"

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Collado, Carissa M. "DELAY DISCOUNTING AND TREATMENT OUTCOME PROBABILITY." OpenSIUC, 2019. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses/2553.

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The purpose of the current study is to apply the delay and probability discounting in the areas of parent training and probability of success of treatment. There was a total of 31 participants that completed one demographic questionnaire and two probability and delay discounting surveys either via computer or with paper and pencil. Participants had two options in the surveys: one was an immediate reward, and one with a probability delay. The first survey gave scenarios of hours of parent training, the second was a monetary probability discounting survey.
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Dai, Zhijie. "Delay Discounting, Probability Discounting, Reward Contrast and Gambling: A Cross-Cultural Study." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Psychology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/7128.

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Problem and pathological gambling has become an increasing public health concern worldwide in recent years, and individuals from China and East Asian countries may be especially vulnerable. Knowledge of how individuals make choices between outcomes that are delayed or uncertain, and of potential differences in decision making across cultures, may contribute to our understanding of factors which increase the risk of problem gambling. Our research is based on a discounting perspective in which the value of a delayed or uncertain reward decreases according to the time until or the odds against its receipt, respectively. We use experimental procedures in which individuals make a series of hypothetical choices so as to estimate an indifference point – an amount of money available immediately or with certainty – that is equal in subjective value to a delayed or uncertain reward. Our starting point is the hypothesis that reward contrast – in which the subjective value of a reward varies inversely with amount of a prior reward – plays a role in choice between delayed or probabilistic outcomes and might contribute to problem gambling. This thesis describes four experiments which investigate these ideas. Experiments 1 and 2 establish that reward contrast is a reliable phenomenon in choice. Indifference points for an intermediate reward ($475/$525) varied as predicted if its subjective value was larger when the individual had previously been making choices with a smaller amount ($50) and smaller when previously making choices with a larger amount ($5,000). Reward contrast was obtained for both delayed and probabilistic choice, using between-subjects (Experiment 1) and within-subjects (Experiment 2) designs. Experiment 3 used a computerized Card Playing Game (CPG) as an analogue gambling task and also measured delay discounting using the same task as Experiment 2. Participants began with an initial stake and could win or lose 10% of the stake with each card that they played. The critical aspect of the procedure was that the probability of winning for each card decreased as more cards were played. Participants played the CPG four times with stakes of $50, $500, $5,000 and $500 (order of $50 and $5,000 was counterbalanced). Results showed that performance on the CPG improved over successive trials, suggesting that participants learned the contingencies in the task. Although this confounded our attempt to measure reward contrast within-subjects, participants who had a $50 stake in the first deck performed better in the second deck with a $500 stake than those who had a $5,000 stake in the first deck, consistent with reward contrast. Results from the delay discounting task were correlated with CPG performance, showing that participants who had lower reward contrast and discounting rates, and greater magnitude effects won more money on the CPG task. Experiment 4 used a larger sample (N = 182) with both Chinese and Caucasian (New Zealand European) participants and recruited individuals with gambling histories, and compared performance on delay and probability discounting tasks and the CPG. Results showed that Chinese participants had higher delay discounting rates and lower probability discounting rates when data were analyzed according to the area under the discounting curve (AUC). Gamblers (those participants with scores on the South Oaks Gambling Screen [SOGS; Lesieur & Blume, 1987] > 1) were less risk averse in probability discounting and had reduced magnitude effects in delay discounting and performed more poorly on the CPG. Closer analysis of the probability discounting data showed that compared with Caucasians, Chinese were more risk averse for high probabilities of reward outcome, and less risk averse for low probabilities. Although results do not suggest that individual differences in reward contrast, as measured using our within-subjects delay discounting task, play a significant role in the maintenance of gambling behavior, the cross-cultural differences in delay and probability discounting in Experiment 4 suggest some factors that might contribute to gambling. In the General Discussion, we propose an account of the probability discounting results in terms of a tendency toward dialectical thinking and emotions in Chinese culture. Based on this result and previous research, we propose a framework for the cross-cultural analysis of risky decision making, and consider some of its broader implications for both research in decision making and issues of globalization.
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Howard, Aimee Colleen. "Probability Discounting of the Quality of Sexual Relationships." OpenSIUC, 2014. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses/1372.

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The responses from a probability discounting procedure was collected to make between and within-group comparisons of the quality of sex with different sexual partners and monetary rewards between individuals who have engaged in infidelity in the past and individuals who have never engaged in infidelity in the past. A modification to the quality of the overall relationship was introduced to identify whether discounting outcomes could be altered. Gender differences were also examined. Results showed a significant difference between groups when discounting the quality of sex of differing sexual partners but no difference between groups with monetary rewards. There was also a significant difference between commodity types within the group that have never engaged in infidelity but no difference between commodity type within the group that has engaged in infidelity in the past. The modification of the quality of the overall relationship resulted in no significant difference in responses to the probability discounting trials and there were no significant gender differences.
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Galliford, Megan Elizabeth. "Discounting and Values." OpenSIUC, 2017. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses/2101.

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The present study examines delay, probability, and social discounting with money in relations to self-reported values. The participants completed a values questionnaire including questions regarding God, sex, and politics, and were divided into a low values and a high values group with the low values group n=10 and high values group = 10 for a total n=20. These groups were compared in the delay, probability, and social discounting tasks. Results indicate little to no difference in discounting between groups with an AUC for the low values group (.47), (.322), (.196), respectively and the AUC for the high values group at (.494), (.411), (.288) respectively. Individual scores for area under the curve (AUC) were tested for degree of correlation to each values question. Results indicate moderate correlations between temporal discounting and 5 sex value questions. Moderate correlations between probability discounting and political and sex value questions were observed. Finally, correlations between social discounting and politics, religious, and sex values were observed. Keywords: delay discounting, probability discounting, social discounting, politics, sex, religion
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Kim, Miriam. "Discounting in Sex: How Sexual Choices are Impacted by Sexual Impulsivity and Gender." OpenSIUC, 2017. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses/2243.

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The study examined how individuals make decisions on hypothetical sexual partners and hypothetical monetary rewards in delay and probability discounting. The participants (N-75, males=42 (M=34) and females=33(M=39)) completed an electronic survey via Qualtrics. The survey consisted of 6 tasks: 1. Multiple Stimulus without Replacement Preference Assessment that consisted of pictures of potential sex partners based on the individual’s gender preference (male, female, or both); 2. Sexual Risk Survey; 3. Monetary delay discounting task; 4. Monetary probability discounting task; 5. Delay discounting of hypothetical sexual partners; and 6. Probability discounting of hypothetical sexual partners. An analysis of area under the curve (AUC) were done for the discounting tasks. The results showed that males devalued delayed sexual partner choice rank higher rates than females (t (7.97) = 2.85, p<0.05). This was also observed in females with higher scores of the Sexual Risk Survey than the lower scorers (t (10.95) = 2.35, p<0.05). AUC reflected on the scores of the SRS and with measures of sexual risk behaviours. However, there were no significant difference in discounting monetary rewards between the genders (t (11.96) = 0.1623, p>0.05).
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Buono, Frank Daniel. "Comparison of Temporal and Probabilisitc Discounting amongst Obese College Students and Obese Adults." OpenSIUC, 2011. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses/550.

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The present study showed the impact of discounting across multiple populations that were obese to that of matched controls. The experiment used one decreasing hypothetical temporal procedure and three probabilistic health discounting procedures in which, of 38 participants interviewed, 20 were obese. It appears that age and obesity alter the subjective values of the delayed rewards within both temporal and probabilistic paradigms. The current data showed a significant difference between populations that were obese to that of the matched controls. In addition, statistically significance was found between the two obese populations within the study. Implications of the future of delay discounting are addressed, in addition to the stigma of delay discounting within behavior analysis.
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Carosella, Ann Marie. "Transitivity of Probability and Strength: A Test of Three Discounting Models." W&M ScholarWorks, 1993. https://scholarworks.wm.edu/etd/1539625848.

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Baumann, Neves Ana Amelia L. "Are Delay Discounting, Probability Discounting, Time Perception, and Time Perspective Related? A Cross-Cultural Study Among Latino and White American Students." DigitalCommons@USU, 2008. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/978.

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The present study aimed to evaluate (a) the extent to which different impulsivity measures would be related to each other and to a risk taking measure, (b) the extent to which impulsivity, risk taking, time perception and time perspective are related to each other, and (c) the extent to which these processes differ in Latino and White American students. Experiment I was conducted at Utah State University. One hundred and fortythree participants were exposed to the delay discounting, probability discounting and temporal bisection procedures, and answered the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) and the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI). Results showed that (a) the AUC for delay discounting was related to the scores on the BIS-11 scale, (b) the AUCs for delay and probability discounting were positively and significantly correlated, (c) the mean of the temporal bisection procedure was correlated with the AUC of the delay discounting procedure, (d) the scores on the ZTPI were correlated with the impulsivity measures, and (e) the scores on the ZTPI subscales were also correlated with the risk taking measure. These results suggest that different impulsivity measures may be evaluating similar decision-making processes, that impulsivity and risk taking may be different decision- making processes, and that time perception and time perspective are related to impulsivity and risk taking. Experiment II was conducted at Washington University in St. Louis, with 18 Latinos and 16 White Americans. Results show that while Latinos were more impulsive in the delay discounting procedure, their scores did not differ from the White Americans on the BIS-11. Interestingly, Latinos and White Americans did not differ on time perception, but they did differ on time perspective: Latinos scored higher on fatalism compared to White Americans.
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Baumann, Neves Ana Amelia L. "Are Delay Discounting, Probability Discounting, Time Perception, and Time perspective Related? A Cross-Cultural Study among Latino and White American Students." DigitalCommons@USU, 2009. http://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/281.

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The present study aimed to evaluate (a) the extent to which different impulsivity measures would be related to each other and to a risk taking measure, (b) the extent to which impulsivity, risk taking, time perception and time perspective are related to each other, and (c) the extent to which these processes differ in Latino and White American students. Experiment I was conducted at Utah State University. One hundred and fortythree participants were exposed to the delay discounting, probability discounting and temporal bisection procedures, and answered the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS-11) and the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI). Results showed that (a) the AUC for delay discounting was related to the scores on the BIS-11 scale, (b) the AUCs for delay and probability discounting were positively and significantly correlated, (c) the mean of the temporal bisection procedure was correlated with the AUC of the delaydiscounting procedure, (d) the scores on the ZTPI were correlated with the impulsivity measures, and (e) the scores on the ZTPI subscales were also correlated with the risk taking measure. These results suggest that different impulsivity measures may be evaluating similar decision-making processes, that impulsivity and risk taking may be different decision- making processes, and that time perception and time perspective are related to impulsivity and risk taking. Experiment II was conducted at Washington University in St. Louis, with 18 Latinos and 16 White Americans. Results show that while Latinos were more impulsive in the delay discounting procedure, their scores did not differ from the White Americans on the BIS-11. Interestingly, Latinos and White Americans did not differ on time perception, but they did differ on time perspective: Latinos scored higher on fatalism compared to White Americans.
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Bidewell, John William. "Decision making in personal investment." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/517.

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Personal investors must postpone gratification and manage risk. This thesis examines the effects of delay and risk on personal investment decisions. The delay discounting literature is employed in developing a new parameter �ki� which integrates an investment�s term and interest rate with the hyperbolic delay discounting model. By indicating the extent to which compound interest growth compensates for hyperbolic delay discounting, ki should strongly predict the subjective appeal of prospective investment returns. Six binary-choice experiments test this hypothesis, especially via a subsidiary hypothesis that exponential growth from compound interest will eventually compensate for delay, given a sufficient term. Analyses include a novel application of signal detection principles, which found ki a superior predictor of investment appraisals compared to the normative exponential delay discounting model. Subject to boundary conditions of term and investment amount, results support the predictive capacity of ki for gross returns, implying a hitherto unrecognised degree of predictability for investment decisions. To investigate perceptions of risk with delay, three additional experiments compared preferences among hypothetical investments with varying risk and term. Risk seeking and risk aversion were detected, consistent with individual differences in hyperbolic probability discounting rates. Excessive risk aversion proved the greater problem, encouraging unnecessarily conservative investment decisions. Unexpectedly, no evidence of delay discounted risk was found. Responses consistent with higher probability discounting of larger amounts occurred, but only for a longer rather than a shorter investment term. A survey of postgraduate finance students examined how investment past performance is interpreted. Participants evaluated annual returns from hypothetical 10-year investments that varied in their mean return, volatility, and sequence of high and low returns. Evaluations generally reflected underlying investment properties. Maladaptive appraisal tendencies included unwarranted attention to the order in which high and low returns occurred within a series. Overall for this dissertation, results suggest that delay and probability discounting theory has practical relevance for understanding personal investment decisions. The principles and methodology in this dissertation are applicable to other varieties of financial and consumer behaviour.
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Book chapters on the topic "Probability discounting"

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Green, Leonard, Joel Myerson, and Ariana Vanderveldt. "Delay and Probability Discounting." In The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Operant and Classical Conditioning, 307–37. Oxford, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118468135.ch13.

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Green, Leonard, and Joel Myerson. "Experimental and correlational analyses of delay and probability discounting." In Impulsivity: The behavioral and neurological science of discounting., 67–92. Washington: American Psychological Association, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/12069-003.

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Artikis, Constantinos, and Panagiotis Artikis. "Stochastic Discounting Modeling for Concepts and Operations of Risk Management." In Probability Distributions in Risk Management Operations, 231–311. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-14256-2_4.

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Whittle, P. "Why discount? The Rationale of Discounting in Optimisation Problems." In Athens Conference on Applied Probability and Time Series Analysis, 354–60. New York, NY: Springer New York, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0749-8_25.

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Garami, Julia, and Ahmed A. Moustafa. "Delay, probability, and effort discounting in drug addiction." In Cognitive, Clinical, and Neural Aspects of Drug Addiction, 61–83. Elsevier, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-816979-7.00004-2.

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Roemer, John E. "The Sustainabilitarian Approach." In The Oxford Handbook of Intergenerational Ethics. Oxford University Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190881931.013.30.

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Abstract This chapter discusses foundational issues of intergenerational ethics in a model with only two generations and endogenous growth. We argue that many important questions can be studied in this simple model, rather than the usual model with an infinite or unknown number of generations. We begin by criticizing (undiscounted) utilitarianism as giving rise to a ‘utility monster’ when there is endogenous growth, and then propose that economists have dealt with this problem by discounting utilities of future generations. We argue that the usual choice of discount factor is far too small (that is, utilities of future generations are discounted too much). There is a ‘discount-factor fallacy’ which holds that the discount factor applied in intergenerational analysis should be the same as the one individuals apply to maximizing their utility over a lifetime. We present in contrast a definition of sustainability and of growth sustainability. The latter’s objective is to maximize the utility of the first generation subject to guaranteeing a rate utility growth of g per generation. We finally discuss how to discount the sustainabilitarian objective, which can be done if there is a positive probability π that each generation might be the last one. Key words: discounted utilitarianism, discount factor size, endogenous growth, sustainability, growth sustainability
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Conference papers on the topic "Probability discounting"

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Carpentieri, Michele, Ivana Baldassarre, and Olimpia Matarazzo. "Delay and probability discounting in risky decisions." In 2014 5th IEEE Conference on Cognitive Infocommunications (CogInfoCom). IEEE, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/coginfocom.2014.7020437.

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