Relevant bibliographies by topics / Probabilistic risk modelling

Academic literature on the topic 'Probabilistic risk modelling'

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Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 28 January 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Probabilistic risk modelling"

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Śliwiński, Marcin, and Emilian Piesik. "Designing Control and Protection Systems with Regard to Integrated Functional Safety and Cybersecurity Aspects." Energies 14, no. 8 (April 16, 2021): 2227. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14082227.

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This article addresses current problems of risk analysis and probabilistic modelling for functional safety management in the life cycle of safety-related systems. Two main stages in the lifecycle of these systems are distinguished, namely the design and operation. The risk analysis and probabilistic modelling differ in these stages in view of available knowledge and data. Due to the complexity and uncertainty involved, both qualitative and quantitative information can be useful in risk analysis and probabilistic modelling. Some methodological aspects of the functional safety assessment are outlined that include modelling of dependent failures or cybersecurity and verifying the safety integrity level (SIL) under uncertainty. It is illustrated how the assumptions in the process of risk analysis and probabilistic modelling influence results obtained and, therefore, potentially the decisions taken in functional safety management. Programmable control and safety systems play an important role in mitigating and controlling risks in the operation of hazardous installations. This paper presents ways to deal with safety hazards involving such systems to be considered in risk analysis and integrated functional safety and cybersecurity management.
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Basu, Asit P. "Probabilistic Risk Analysis." Technometrics 44, no. 4 (November 2002): 402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1198/tech.2002.s84.

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Melchers, Robert E., and Dan M. Frangopol. "Probabilistic modelling of structural degradation." Reliability Engineering & System Safety 93, no. 3 (March 2008): 363. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2007.01.001.

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Brillinger, D. R., H. K. Preisler, and J. W. Benoit. "Probabilistic risk assessment for wildfires." Environmetrics 17, no. 6 (2006): 623–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/env.768.

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Gómez-Fuster, José María, and Pilar Jiménez. "Probabilistic risk modelling for port investments: A practical approach." Case Studies on Transport Policy 8, no. 3 (September 2020): 822–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2020.06.001.

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Gray, George M. "Probabilistic Methods in Risk Analysis." Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 4, no. 2 (April 1998): 227–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10807039891284280.

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Stoudmann, Natasha, Bernd Nowack, and Claudia Som. "Prospective environmental risk assessment of nanocellulose for Europe." Environmental Science: Nano 6, no. 8 (2019): 2520–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/c9en00472f.

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Thomsen, Rene O. "Dynamical Models in Geology: Sensitivity Analysis and Scientific Risk." Energy Exploration & Exploitation 11, no. 3-4 (July 1993): 329–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0144598793011003-406.

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Dynamical models are used routinely throughout various branches of geology and decisions are often based on the results of such models. Awareness of some fundamental limitations of any model used is therefore vital in order to avoid decision making based on highly uncertain results. Computer models are based on mathematical models which describe essential features of processes or system behaviour and a systematic approach to investigate and understand model limitations can therefore be applied. Sensitivity analysis provides a feel for the system response to uncertainties in both assumptions and observations. However, sensitivity analyses do not provide a feel for the level of confidence one should assign modelling results. A probabilistic approach to evaluation of uncertainties and modelling results is therefore demonstrated. Two cases are used as examples for the method and it is demonstrated how the combined sensitivity analyses and probabilistic evaluation greatly improve the use of even uncertain modelling results.
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Jiang, Xiaomo, Yong Yuan, and Xian Liu. "Multivariate probabilistic modelling for seepage risk assessment in tunnel segments." International Journal of Reliability and Safety 8, no. 2/3/4 (2014): 228. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijrs.2014.069507.

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Stripling, Stuart, Michael Panzeri, Belen Blanco, Kate Rossington, Paul Sayers, and Alistair Borthwick. "Regional-scale probabilistic shoreline evolution modelling for flood-risk assessment." Coastal Engineering 121 (March 2017): 129–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.12.002.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Probabilistic risk modelling"

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Macey, P. "Probabilistic risk assessment modelling for passenger aircraft fire safety." Thesis, Cranfield University, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/1826/4260.

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This thesis describes the development of a computer simulation model for the investigation of airliner fire accident safety. The aim of the work has been to create a computer-based analysis tool that generates representative aircraft accident scenarios and then simulates their outcome in terms of passenger injuries and fatalities. The details of the accident scenarios are formulated to closely match the type of events that are known to have occurred in aircraft accidents over the last 40 years. This information has been obtained by compiling a database and undertaking detailed analysis of approximately 200 airliner fire accidents. In addition to utilising historical data, the modelling work has incorporated many of the key findings obtained from experimental research undertaken by the world's air safety community. An unusual feature of the simulation process is that all critical aspects of the accident scenario have been analysed and catered for in the formative stages of the programme development. This has enabled complex effects, such as cabin crash disruption, impact trauma injuries, fire spread, smoke incapacitation and passenger evacuation to be simulated in a balanced and integrated manner. The study is intended to further the general appreciation and understanding of the complex events that lead to fatalities in aircraft fire accidents. This is achieved by analysing all contributory factors that are likely to arise in real fire accident scenarios and undertaking quantitative risk assessment through the use of novel simulation methods. Future development of the research could potentially enable the undertaking of a systematic exploration and appraisal of the effectiveness of both current and future aircraft fire safety policies.
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Crossland, Ross. "Risk in the development design." Thesis, University of Bristol, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/1983/aa5c6f5c-8e74-44ab-a6da-545ec6d39cfd.

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Barr, Gordon. "A probabilistic risk modelling methodology for the formative stages of engineering projects." Thesis, University of Bristol, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.402343.

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Lieswyn, John. "Probabilistic Risk Analysis in Transport Project Economic Evaluation." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/7652.

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Transport infrastructure investment decision making is typically based on a range of inputs such as social, environmental and economic factors. The benefit cost ratio (BCR), a measure of economic efficiency (“value for money”) determined through cost benefit analysis (CBA), is dependent on accurate estimates of the various option costs and net social benefits such as reductions in travel time, accidents, and vehicle operating costs. However, most evaluations are deterministic procedures using point estimates for the inputs and producing point estimates for the outputs. Transport planners have primarily focused on the cost risks and treat risk through sensitivity testing. Probabilistic risk analysis techniques are available which could provide more information about the statistical confidence of the economic evaluation outputs. This research project report investigated how risk and uncertainty are dealt with in the literature and guidelines. The treatment of uncertainty in the Nelson Arterial Traffic Study (ATS) was reviewed and an opportunity to apply risk analysis to develop probabilities of sea level rise impacting on the coastal road options was identified. A simplified transport model and economic evaluation case study based on the ATS was developed in Excel to enable the application of @RISK Monte Carlo simulation software. The simplifications mean that the results are not comparable with the ATS. Seven input variables and their likely distributions were defined for simulation based on the literature review. The simulation of seven variables, five worksheets, and 10,000 iterations takes about 30 seconds of computation time. The input variables in rank order of influence on the BCR were capital cost, car mode share, unit vehicle operating cost, basic employment forecast growth rate, and unit value of time cost. The deterministically derived BCR of 0.75 is associated with a 50% chance that the BCR will be less than 0.6, although this probability is partly based on some statistical parameters without an empirical basis. In practice, probability distribution fitting to appropriate datasets should be undertaken to better support probabilistic risk analysis conclusions. Probabilities for different confidence levels can be reported to suit the risk tolerance of the decision makers. It was determined that the risk analysis approach is feasible and can produce useful outputs, given a clear understanding of the data inputs and their associated distributions.
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Arnold, Patrick. "Probabilistic modelling of unsaturated slope stability accounting for heterogeneity." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2017. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/probabilistic-modelling-of-unsaturated-slope-stability-accounting-for-heterogeneity(fb3d214c-8a42-4a2c-81c2-bda45e9ae7af).html.

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The performance and safety assessment of geo-structures is strongly affected by uncertainty; that is, both due a subjective lack of knowledge as well as objectively present and irreducible unknowns. Due to uncertainty in the non-linear variation of the matric suction induced effective stress as a function of the transient soil-atmosphere boundary conditions, the unsaturated state of the subsoil is generally not accounted for in a deterministic slope stability assessment. Probability theory, accounting for uncertainties quantitatively rather than using "cautious estimates" on loads and resistances, may aid to partly bridge the gap between unsaturated soil mechanics and engineering practice. This research investigates the effect of uncertainty in soil property values on the stability of unsaturated soil slopes. Two 2D Finite Element (FE) programs have been developed and implemented into a parallelised Reliability-Based Design (RBD) framework, which allows for the assessment of the failure probability, failure consequence and parameter sensitivity, rather than a deterministic factor of safety. Utilising the Random Finite Element Method (RFEM), within a Monte Carlo framework, multivariate cross-correlated random property fields have been mapped onto the FE mesh to assess the effect of isotropic and anisotropic moderate heterogeneity on the transient slope response, and thus performance. The framework has been applied to a generic slope subjected to different rainfall scenarios. The performance was found to be sensitive to the uncertainty in the effective shear strength parameters, as well as the parameters governing the unsaturated soil behaviour. The failure probability was found to increase most during prolonged rainfall events with a low precipitation rate. Nevertheless, accounting for the unsaturated state resulted in a higher slope reliability than when not considering suction effects. In a heterogeneous deposit failure is attracted to local zones of low shear strength, which, for an unsaturated soil, are a function of both the spatial variability of soil property values, as well as of the soil-water dynamics, leading to a significant increase in the failure probability near the end of the main rainfall event.
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Khan, Saad Ullah. "Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2014. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/79325/1/Saad_Khan_Thesis.pdf.

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This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?
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Pretorius, Samantha. "The effect of observation errors on parameter estimates applied to seismic hazard and insurance risk modelling." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/79774.

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The research attempts to resolve which method of estimation is the most consistent for the parameters of the earthquake model, and how these different methods of estimation, as well as other changes, in the earthquake model parameters affect the damage estimates for a specific area. The research also investigates different methods of parameter estimation in the context of the log-linear relationship characterised by the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Traditional methods are compared to those methods that take uncertainty in the underlying data into account. Alternative methods based on Bayesian statistics are investigated briefly. The efficiency of the feasible methods is investigated by comparing the results for a large number of synthetic earthquake catalogues for which the parameters are known and errors have been incorporated into each observation. In the second part of the study, the effects of changes in key parameters of the earthquake model on damage estimates are investigated. This includes an investigation of the different methods of estimation and their effect on the damage estimates. It is found that parameter estimates are affected by observation errors. If errors are not included in the method of estimation, the estimate is subject to bias. The nature of the errors determines the level of bias. It is concluded that uncertainty in the data used in earthquake parameter estimates is largely a function of the quality of the data that is available. The inaccuracy of parameter estimates depends on the nature of the errors that are present in the data. In turn, the nature of the errors in an earthquake catalogue depends on the method of compilation of the catalogue and can vary from being negligible, for single source catalogues for an area with a sophisticated seismograph network, to fairly impactful, for historical earthquake catalogues that predate seismograph networks. Probabilistic seismic risk assessment is used as a catastrophe modelling tool to circumvent the problem of scarce loss data in areas of low seismicity and is applied in this study for the greater Cape Town region in South Africa. The results of the risk assessment demonstrate that seemingly small changes in underlying earthquake parameters as a result of the incorporation of errors can lead to significant changes in loss estimates for buildings in an area of low seismicity.
Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2014.
Insurance and Actuarial Science
MSc
Unrestricted
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Impoco, Stefano. "Probabilistic analysis of the performance of barriers controlling the ignition of combustible gas in gas turbine air intakes." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2020.

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Nowadays, the frequent occurrence of hydrocarbon leaks underlies the need for investigating every possible contribution to the fire and explosion risk in the oil and gas industry. Hence, controlling the potential ignition sources is paramount for ensuring tolerable risk levels. Among potential ignitors, gas turbines (GT) are regarded as one of the main contributors when employed for mechanical-drive in the process area of offshore facilities even though their behaviour when acting as live sources has never been analysed in detail. This study aimed at investigating both the role that GTs play on the fire and explosion risk and the effect of further controlling ignition barrier elements by examining a real case of study. The Kamaleon FireEx™ – Risk and Barrier Management tool was used since this couples a CFD-based description of transient releases dispersion to the ignition probability modelling. After a first optimisation of the grid resolution, a selection procedure was developed to define a base case risk level. This result was analysed to highlight the time-window where ignitions occur and used as terms of comparison in the following sensitivity studies. First, the contribution that the installation of a GT carries along was quantified. The effect of an alternative ignition probability modelling, which underlies either a detailed representation of the GT behaviour when acting as an ignition source or the activation of an inert gas injecting system, was investigated thereafter. Results show the need for a quick response to obtain a risk reduction. Then, the influence of a shield wall that was built around the GT air-intakes was analysed. A covering effect was observed, which involved a reduction in the risk. Finally, since the wall introduced even a delaying effect, it was investigated whether this may combine with the alternative ignition model. Results showed a further risk reduction and the dominant role that physical barriers play in this context.
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PANIZZI, SILVIA. "Sfide e prospettive nella valutazione del rischio ambientale dei prodotti fitosanitari." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/19081.

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La prima parte dell’elaborato presenta le origini e lo sviluppo delle politiche di valutazione del rischio per le sostanze chimiche. Dopo un primo inquadramento storico, l’attenzione è stata dedicata a temi emergenti come la valutazione delle incertezze, la necessità di integrazione delle valutazioni del rischio per l’uomo e per l'ambiente. La seconda parte presenta l’evoluzione delle politiche di valutazione del rischio dei prodotti fitosanitari, soprattutto a livello europeo (dall’applicazione della direttiva 91/414 all’attuale regolamento 1107/2009), con particolare attenzione all’applicazione del principio di precauzione. Il terzo capitolo approfondisce le fasi e gli approcci delle attuali procedure di valutazione ambientale del rischio dei pesticidi usati a livello europeo e americano; è stato in particolar modo esplorato il tema dell’individuazione degli obiettivi specifici di protezione in fase preliminare di valutazione del rischio. Il quarto capitolo tratta di un tema attualmente molto dibattuto, ovvero la valutazione dei potenziali effetti combinati sugli organismi non bersaglio esposti a più sostanze attive simultaneamente. Infine, l’obiettivo del quinto capitolo è quello di valutare la contaminazione ambientale dovuta all’applicazione di fungicidi a base rame su melo. A tale scopo è stato testato un nuovo modello per il calcolo integrato dell’esposizioni umana e ambientale MERLIN – Expo, sviluppato grazie al progetto europeo 4FUN. I risultati ottenuti per le acque superficiali e il sedimento sono stati confrontati con i risultati degli attuali modelli usati in Unione Europea, i modelli FOCUS. Le simulazioni probabilistiche hanno anche permesso di effettuare valutazioni di incertezza e sensitività sui parametri utilizzati nelle simulazioni.
This PhD thesis is a multidisciplinary work on the risk assessment of plant protection products including both legislative and scientific aspects. The first part of the thesis introduces the origin of risk assessment procedures with a wide glance on the whole process of risk analysis to protect the humans and the environment. The accent is put on emerging issues and trends, such as the uncertainties appraisal, the necessity of integration between human and environmental impacts without ignoring socio- economic and behavioural factors. The second chapter deals with the origin and development of global risk assessment policies on pesticides. It focuses in particular on European policies, from the original Directive 91/414 to the current Regulation 1107/2009 and the application of the precautionary principle. A brief comparison with US approaches for risk assessment is also presented. The third chapter gives an overview on the risk assessment procedures that nowadays provide the highest achievable protection for the environment, starting with the definition of clear and specific protection goals. The fourth chapter addresses the issue of combined risk assessment of pesticides: current approaches for the evaluation of effects on non-target organisms are analysed. The last chapter is dedicated to the estimation of the environmental contamination following the application of copper –based fungicides sprayed on orchards by using MERLIN - Expo, which is a multimedia model developed in the frame of the FP7 EU project 4FUN. The performance of the MERLIN- Expo software in estimating the contamination of the metal is also analysed through a comparison with the currently used FOCUS standard models for the calculation of pesticides concentrations in surface water and sediment. Both deterministic and probabilistic simulations have been run; the latter has allowed to perform uncertainty and sensitivity assessment.
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Vyčítal, Václav. "Pravděpodobnostní přístup pro hodnocení zemnících soustav." Doctoral thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta elektrotechniky a komunikačních technologií, 2020. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-414160.

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This dissertation thesis deals with application of probabilistic approach to assessment of earthing system safety in distribution networks, especially for cases with common earthing of high and low voltage side of distribution transformers HV/LV. In these cases, the increased potential during fault might be transferred from high voltage to low voltage network and thus the individuals from public can be exposed to increased risk. Thus, for these cases were in this thesis defined expectable touch scenarios together with the resulting risk imposed on individuals from the public. Based on the results it seems that adoption of probabilistic approach for these cases of earthing systems might be more suitable compared to the conventional deterministic worst case approach. In accordance to the aims of the thesis, a thorough analysis of currently adopted probabilistic approaches was carried out as well and it was pointed out to some new possible simplifications in the adopted probabilistic based methodologies. For example, it seems that appropriate modelling of human body resistance by the full lognormal distribution is not completely necessary and similar results can be obtained when only the resistance for 50 % of population together with c3 and c4 fibrillation curves are used. Much of the work was also devoted to the determination of possible uncertainty of calculated risk of evaluated earthing system, especially due to inappropriate modelling of earthing system. The appropriateness of different earthing system modelling methods together with other parameters on the value of calculated risk was investigated through conducting sensitivity analysis. Based on the analysis results it seems, that due to using more, or less simplified modelling method, a possible underrating in the resulting risk of about 40 % (about half an order/decade) is expectable. On the other hand, the change of parameters related directly to calculation of fibrillation probability seems to exhibit greater change in calculated risk by up to units of orders/decades.
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Books on the topic "Probabilistic risk modelling"

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Vinnem, Jan Erik, Ingrid B. Utne, and Tarannom Parhizkar. Online Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Complex Marine Systems: Principles, Modelling and Applications. Springer International Publishing AG, 2022.

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Vinnem, Jan Erik, Ingrid B. Utne, and Tarannom Parhizkar. Online Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Complex Marine Systems: Principles, Modelling and Applications. Springer International Publishing AG, 2022.

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Porter, Catherine, and Emily White. Potential for Application of a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Modelling Framework to Poverty Outcomes: General Form Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Hazard Intensity in Ethiopia. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7717.

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Belia, Evangelia, Lorenzo Benedetti, Bruce Johnson, Sudhir Murthy, Marc Neumann, Peter Vanrolleghem, and Stefan Weijers, eds. Uncertainty in Wastewater Treatment Design and Operation. IWA Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/9781780401034.

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Uncertainty in Wastewater Treatment Design and Operation aims to facilitate the transition of the wastewater profession to the probabilistic use of simulators with the associated benefits of being better able to take advantage of opportunities and manage risk. There is a paradigm shift taking place in the design and operation of treatment plants in the water industry. The market is currently in transition to use modelling and simulation while still using conventional heuristic guidelines (safety factors). Key reasons for transition include: wastewater treatment simulation software advancements; stricter effluent requirements that cannot be designed for using traditional approaches, and increased pressure for more efficient designs (including energy efficiency, greenhouse gas emission control). There is increasing consensus among wastewater professionals that the performance of plants and the predictive power of their models (degree of uncertainty) is a critical component of plant design and operation. However, models and simulators used by designers and operators do not incorporate methods for the evaluation of uncertainty associated with each design. Thus, engineers often combine safety factors with simulation results in an arbitrary way based on designer ‘experience’. Furthermore, there is not an accepted methodology (outside modelling) that translates uncertainty to assumed opportunity or risk and how it is distributed among consultants/contractors and owners. Uncertainty in Wastewater Treatment Design and Operation documents how uncertainty, opportunity and risk are currently handled in the wastewater treatment practice by consultants, utilities and regulators. The book provides a useful set of terms and definitions relating to uncertainty and promotes an understanding of the issues and terms involved. It identifies the sources of uncertainty in different project phases and presents a critical review of the available methods. Real-world examples are selected to illustrate where and when sources of uncertainty are introduced and how models are implemented and used in design projects and in operational optimisation. Uncertainty in Wastewater Treatment Design and Operation defines the developments required to provide improved procedures and tools to implement uncertainty and risk evaluations in projects. It is a vital reference for utilities, regulators, consultants, and trained management dealing with certainty, opportunity and risk in wastewater treatment. ISBN: 9781780401027 (Paperback) ISBN: 9781780401034 (eBook) ISBN: 9781789062601 (ePub)
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Dresher, B. Elan, and Harry van der Hulst, eds. The Oxford History of Phonology. Oxford University Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198796800.001.0001.

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This volume is an up-to-date history of phonology from the earliest known examples of phonological thinking through the rise of phonology as a field in the 20th century and up to the present time. The volume is divided into five parts. Part I, Early insights in phonology, begins with writing systems and has chapters devoted to the great ancient and medieval intellectual traditions of phonological thought that form the foundation of later thinking and continue to enrich phonological theory. Part II, The founders of phonology, describes the important schools and individuals of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries who shaped phonology as an organized scientific field. Part III takes up Mid-twentieth-century developments in phonology in the Soviet Union, Northern and Western Europe, and North America; it continues with precursors to generative grammar, and culminates in a chapter on Chomsky & Halle’s The Sound Pattern of English (SPE). Part IV, Phonology after SPE, shows how phonological theorists responded to SPE with respect to derivations, representations, and phonology-morphology interaction. Theories discussed include Dependency Phonology, Government Phonology, Constraint-and-Repair theories, and Optimality Theory. This part ends with a chapter on the study of variation. Part V, New methods and approaches, has chapters on phonetic explanation, corpora and phonological analysis, probabilistic phonology, computational modelling, models of phonological learning, and the evolution of phonology. This exploration of the history of phonology from various viewpoints provides new perspectives on where phonology has been and throws light on where it is going.
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Book chapters on the topic "Probabilistic risk modelling"

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Raman, Raghu. "Source term modelling of chlorine release inside buildings." In Probabilistic Risk and Hazard Assessment, 69–76. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9780203742037-7.

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Plate, Erich J. "Probabilistic Modelling of Water Quality in Rivers." In Water Resources Engineering Risk Assessment, 137–66. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76971-9_10.

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Lentz, Albrecht, and Rüdiger Rackwitz. "Loss-of-Life Modelling in Risk Acceptance Criteria." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 1924–29. London: Springer London, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_309.

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Mandal, Sujit, and Subrata Mondal. "Probabilistic Approaches and Landslide Susceptibility." In Geoinformatics and Modelling of Landslide Susceptibility and Risk, 145–63. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-10495-5_6.

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Gheorghe, Adrian V., Jürg Birchmeier, Wolfgang Kröger, Dan V. Vamanu, and Bogdan Vamanu. "Advanced Spatial Modelling for Risk Analysis of Transportation Dangerous Goods." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 2499–504. London: Springer London, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_401.

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Fiorentini, Luca, Vinicio Rossini, Gaetano Coppola, and Andrea Ferrari. "Fire Risk Analysis and Modelling of the Relevant Scenarios: towards a Performance Based Fire Engineering and Protection Approach." In Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 732–37. London: Springer London, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-410-4_119.

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Ngo, Hieu Quang. "Development of an effective modelling approach to support probabilistic flood forecasting in Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam 1." In Development of an Efficient Modelling Approach to Support Economically and Socially Acceptable Flood Risk Reduction in Coastal Cities: Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam, 23–42. London: CRC Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781003274742-2.

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Ngo, Hieu Quang. "Developing probabilistic flood hazard maps for the urban centre of Can Tho city for present-day and future 2." In Development of an Efficient Modelling Approach to Support Economically and Socially Acceptable Flood Risk Reduction in Coastal Cities: Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam, 43–68. London: CRC Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781003274742-3.

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"Probabilistic utility." In Financial Risk Modelling and Portfolio Optimization with R, 339–77. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119119692.ch14.

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"Probabilistic modelling of barrier resistance." In Risk Analysis in Building Fire Safety Engineering, 114–27. Routledge, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780080467269-14.

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Conference papers on the topic "Probabilistic risk modelling"

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Senanayake, Indishe, Philipp Hartmann, Klaus Thoeni, Abigail Watman, and Anna Giacomini. "The Impact of Slope Roughness on the Uncertainty in Probabilistic Rockfall Modelling." In International Symposium for Geotechnical Safety & Risk. Singapore: Research Publishing Services, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-5182-7_00-12-001.xml.

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Sand, Kjell, Jean Aupied, and Florent Spruyt. "Application of Bayesian Networks for maintenance and risk modelling." In 2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS). IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/pmaps.2010.5528936.

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Kamps, Kristof, Fabian Mohrke, Karl Friedrich Schafer, Markus Zdrallek, Andreas Wasserrab, Robert Schwerdfeger, and Mark Thiele. "Modelling and Risk Assessment of Special Protection Schemes in Transmission Systems." In 2020 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/pmaps47429.2020.9183639.

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Dent, C. J., K. R. W. Bell, A. W. Richards, S. Zachary, D. Eager, G. P. Harrison, and J. W. Bialek. "The role of risk modelling in the Great Britain transmission planning and operational standards." In 2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS). IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/pmaps.2010.5528890.

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Madaan, Rahul, Kanishk Rana, and Arun Balaji Buduru. "Assessing risk of attacks in large networked system with Context Sensitive Probabilistic Modelling." In 2020 IEEE Sixth International Conference on Multimedia Big Data (BigMM). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/bigmm50055.2020.00045.

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Dimitrov, Nikolay, and Armen Der Kiureghian. "Probabilistic Modelling of Fatigue Life of Composite Laminates Using Bayesian Inference." In Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA). Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.260.

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Soprano, Alessandro, Francesco Caputo, and Giuseppe Lamanna. "A Risk Analysis Procedure for Aeronautical Components." In ASME 7th Biennial Conference on Engineering Systems Design and Analysis. ASMEDC, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/esda2004-58338.

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This work describes a risk assessment procedure which has been developed by the authors to analyse the spreading of fatigue-induced damage in typical aeronautical components, also taking into account the effects of maintenance. The general model adopted in this procedure is based on a Markov propagation process, embedded in a Monte Carlo global integration strategy. The main feature of such a procedure is related to the modelling of the damage evolutionary process, not only to define the damage initiation step, but also to evaluate the transitional probabilities which characterize the passage from one damage level to a higher one and which is obviously related to time and to the damage state of surrounding zones. The evaluation of such transitional probabilities is often carried out by means of a mixed procedure, by using a probabilistic technique for the initiation phase and a deterministic one for propagation phase; in this work a fully probabilistic procedure has been considered.
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Ayello, Francois, Guanlan Liu, Yonghe Yang, and Ning Cui. "Probabilistic Digital Twins for Transmission Pipelines." In 2020 13th International Pipeline Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2020-9240.

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Abstract Digitalization in the oil and gas industry has led to the formation of digital twins. Digital twins bring closer the physical and virtual world as data is transmitted seamlessly between real time sensors, databases and models. The strength of the digital twin concept is the interconnectivity of data and models. Any model can use any combination of inputs (e.g. operator owned data sets and sensors, third-party databases such as soil composition or weather data, results from other models such as flow assurance, threat modelling or risk modelling). Consequently, the result of one model may become the input of another. This strength is also a weakness, as uncertain (or missing data) will lead to a great source of uncertainty and may lead to wrong results. Worst case scenarios have been used to solve this issue without success. This paper presents a new concept: probabilistic digital twins for pipelines. Probabilistic digital twins do not lose uncertainty as results pass from one model to another, thus providing greater confidence in the final results. This publication reviews the probabilistic digital twin concept and demonstrates how it can be implemented using gas pipeline data from West Pipeline Company, CNPC.
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Koita, Abdourahmane, Dimitri Daucher, and Michel Fogli. "Vehicle Risk Level Estimation by Using Experimental Trajectories in Bend." In ASME 2011 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2011-62055.

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This paper tackles the general context of road safety, focussing on the light vehicles safety in bends. It consists to use a reliability analysis in order to estimate the failure probability of vehicle trajectories. Firstly, we build probabilistic models able to describe measured trajectories in a given bend. The models are transforms of scalar normalized second order stochastic processes which are stationary, ergodic and non-Gaussian. The process is characterized by its probability density function and its power spectral density estimated starting from the experimental trajectories. The probability density is approximated by a development on the Hermite polynomials basis. The second part is devoted to apply a reliability strategy intended to associate a risk level to each class of trajectories. Based on the joint use of probabilistic methods for modelling uncertainties, reliability analysis for assessing risk levels and statistics for classifying the trajectories, this approach provides a realistic answer to the tackled problem.
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Mathisen, Jan, and Kjell Larsen. "Risk-Based Inspection Planning for Mooring Chain." In ASME 2002 21st International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2002-28409.

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The use of risk-based inspection planning for offshore structural components is becoming quite familiar. This paper describes an application of this technique to mooring chain. In many cases, the technique is based on probabilistic modelling of fatigue crack growth in the structural components, and updating of the failure probability on the basis of inspections. The extension of this basis from a single component to very many components is necessary to tackle series systems, such as mooring chain, where a fatigue fracture can arise in any chain link. The theoretical basis for the analysis is described, including details of the model for stochastic dependency between the chain links. Results are shown that compare failure probabilities for a single chain link and a chain segment. The effects of various levels of inspection coverage are illustrated. An example of a cost optimal inspection plan is developed for mooring chain on an FPSO in the northern North Sea.
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Reports on the topic "Probabilistic risk modelling"

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Hobbs, T. E., J. M. Journeay, A. S. Rao, L. Martins, P. LeSueur, M. Kolaj, M. Simionato, et al. Scientific basis of Canada's first public national seismic risk model. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/330927.

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Natural Resources Canada, in partnership with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, has prepared a public Canadian Seismic Risk Model to support disaster risk reduction efforts across industry and all levels of government, and to aid in Canada's adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Developing this model has involved the creation of a national exposure inventory, Canadian specific fragility and vulnerability curves, and adjustment of the Canadian Seismic Hazard Model which forms the basis for the seismic provisions of the National Building Code of Canada. Using the Global Earthquake Model Foundation's OpenQuake Engine (OQ), risk modelling is completed using both deterministic and probabilistic risk calculations, under baseline and simulated retrofit conditions. Output results are available in all settled regions of Canada, at the scale of a neighbourhood or smaller. We report on expected shaking damage to buildings, financial losses, fatalities, and other impacts such as housing disruption and the generation of debris. This paper documents the technical details of the modelling approach including a description of novel datasets in use, as well as preliminary results for a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia megathrust and nation-wide 500 year expected probabilistic losses. These kinds of results, such as earthquake scenario impacts, loss exceedance curves, and annual average losses, provide a quantitative base of evidence for decision making at local, regional, and national levels.
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