Academic literature on the topic 'Pressure groups – European Union countries'

Purpose: To analyze the appropriateness of referrals for incisional glaucoma-surgery in Europe. Methods: Referrals for the first open-angle glaucoma surgery between January and October 2017 were analyzed in 18 countries: 8 “old” European Union, 7 “new” European Union and 3 non-European Union European countries. Results: Most eyes had primary open-angle or exfoliative glaucoma. The average mean deviation was −13.8 dB with split fixation in 44.3%. No structural progression analysis was made before the referrals. The most common medications were the combination of a prostaglandin analog, timolol and a carbonic anhydrase inhibitor (30.0%), and all other combinations comprising ⩾ 3 molecules (33.8%). Laser trabeculoplasty was reported in only 18.4%. Of the 294 referrals, 41.5% were appropriate and timely, 35.0% appropriate but later than optimal, and 17.6% appropriate but too late (minimal vision maintained). The treatment period was significantly longer (median: 7 years) in the “old” European Union countries than in the other groups (3 and 2 years, respectively). No between-group differences were seen in intraocular pressure and mean deviation, but the non-European Union group referred the patients at significantly lower cup/disk ratio and eye drop usage than the other groups. Split fixation was significantly more common in the “old” (60.6%) than the “new” European Union countries (38.7%), and in both EU country-groups than in the non-European Union countries (13.6%). Conclusions: Of 294 European open-angle glaucoma referrals for first glaucoma-surgery, 41.5% were completely satisfactory. The damage was typically advanced, and the care varied considerably among the countries. This suggests that further efforts are necessary to improve glaucoma care in Europe.

The aim of this article is to assess the existing development of migrant crisis in connection with the divided member states of the European Union. Based on the comparison of migrant flows, study of the measures adopted in order to prevent migration and analysis of security risks of migration presented in the article it has been proven that there is a direct correlation between migration and an increased rate of terrorist attacks in Europe. The elimination of smuggling groups and the support of migrants' countries of origin have helped to mitigate migration pressure. The outcomes of the article confirm that despite the adoption of legal and technical measures by the European Union in order to secure the external border of the Schengen Area, European countries do not share the same view of how to solve the migrant crisis. The outcome of migration issue solution is to provide relevant information to the expert public in order to support a stable and safe European Union. It is an equal partnership of all the European Union member states in all the areas that is of the highest priority in order to guarantee the above state.

The initiatives taken by the European Union (EU) and the strategies it adopts aim to achieve sustainable development in a long-term perspective. This, however, requires continuous and consistent efforts to minimise the pressure on the natural environment. By obliging and encouraging Member States to take action in the environmental area, the EU wants to be a leader in conducting the green energy transformation. The main aim of the article is to assess the level of advancement of the EU countries (taking into account their division into two groups: EU-13 and EU-15) in making efforts to preserve the natural environment, with a particular emphasis on the position of Poland among the EU countries. An environmental index (EI) was used to make comparisons between EU countries. This index was designed on the basis of selected indicators during a statistical analysis. The Principal Component Analysis and the cluster analysis are employed in the article. This analysis puts forward a claim that it was mainly the countries of the EU-15 (Denmark and Sweden, in particular) that ranked highest in the environmental area in the period analysed and thus are the most advanced in terms of taking action for environmental protection—they took leaders’ positions. Romania and Bulgaria took the lowest positions in these comparisons. Poland’s score was low for the EI in the period analysed compared to the EU-28 countries. Establishing a more effective environmental policy in Member States with the lowest results is most crucial. The consistency of ordering countries according to the EI was noticeable in the period investigated. This proves the stability of the positions occupied by the EU-13 and the EU-15 group. Even though the European Union has made great progress with regard to the protection of the natural environment and green transformation, there is still much more to be done to increase the efficiency of resource use, waste recycling, energy efficiency or RES sharing in energy mixes.

The relevance of the selected topic is substantiated by the fact that in modern world migration has become a significant factor in the development of both accepting countries and countries of origin. Europe hosts the largest number of migrants. Since 2015, the EU member-states have been experiencing strong migration pressure. The existing migration stands in need for reform. The New Pact on Migration and Asylum should be a significant step towards creating a reliable and effective system for regulation of migration. The subject of this research is the institutional and legal characteristics of the EU New Pact on Migration and Asylum. The article analyzes the proposals of the European Commission regarding the migration policy reform, as well as the political-legal mechanism for their implementation; contradictions between the member-states in the course of the relevant discussions. The following conclusions are made: 1) It must be admitted that the new approach of the European Commission is comprehensive and aimed at integration of the internal and external aspects of migration policy. 2) The structure of the Pact corresponds to the goals of migration policy and consists on three levels – external, namely relations with the countries of origin and transit of migrants; control over the external borders of the EU; a new system of permanent solidarity. 3) As an annex to the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, the European Commission has presented a roadmap for implementation of various proposals. However, by the end of 2021, the schedule for the adoption of legal documents is not being maintained. 4) The only common denominator between the different groups of countries is the orientation towards external actions aimed at curbing migration movements prior to their arrival to Europe. 5) The plan of the European Commission on adoption of rules obligatory for all member-states currently seems untenable, considering the clashing interests.

In 2009, when the effects of the economic crisis were fully felt, countries around the world experienced negative impacts, starting from the USA, where the crisis began, through Europe to Asia. Economic cycles, fluctuations, and crises are a common part of the financial market, for example, the crisis in 1929 and the crisis in 2000. The recovery of the economy is a key factor in this process. Due to the increasingly powerful process of globalization and the growth of the interconnectedness of individual economies to each other, not to mention an increasing pressure on the formation of integration clusters, the creation and emergence of new financial crises with supranational and transnational character are highly likely in the future. It is possible that a one-day crisis reaches and expands with global reach, but it is important for us to be prepared through effective tools. In this article, we will be dealing with financial indicators within the European Union that define and create the capital market. Based on cluster analysis, we create groups of countries that are similar to each other. We determine which countries are the leaders and which, on the contrary, lag behind the rest of Europe.

The new European Union member states in Eastern Europe do not have fully consolidated democracies. True, popularly elected legislatures are responsible for lawmaking, and citizens can challenge the case-by-case implementation of the law. But most statutes are not self-implementing. Before they can be put into effect, governments need to issue general regulations and guidelines that add specificity to the statutory scheme. At present, this type of government policy making often is not democratically accountable. Procedures inside government lack transparency and accountability, and organized civil society groups that are engaged in advocacy and oversight are few in number and often weakly institutionalized. The Central European experience has lessons for countries further to the east that are poorer and less democratic. Here, full-fledged public participation in the government rule making may not be feasible, but other aspects of the transition to democracy in Central Europe may provide relevant models—for instance, external pressure, government oversight institutions, and grassroots democracy.

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between unemployment benefits and durations of unemployment with respect to different approaches in social policy. The hypothesis of the research is that unemployment benefits negatively affect the duration of unemployment. An analysis of the relationship concerning unemployment benefits and duration of unemployment within the European Union Member States (EU-28) between 2006–2018 using panel data regression approach was conducted. The sample was split into sub-samples in order to get more homogeneous groups of EU-28 countries. Estimation results suggest that the more generous a social policy, the more prevalent the negative relationship between unemployment duration and unemployment benefits. Our results also revealed that the better the economic situation, the less pressure is put on unemployment benefits and on the duration of unemployment.

Although the process of European integration is proceeding speedily and social movements are often interacting transnationally, research on the Europeanization of social movement actors is far from developed. Some scholars, focusing especially on public interest groups active at EU level, expect that civil society actors, due among other reasons to the flexibility of their organizational structures, will be able to adapt quickly to integration. Others, especially scholars looking at protest activities, are skeptical on three accounts: (1) will actors endowed with scarce material resources be able to build transnational organizations; (2) will they be able to stage supranational protest events; and (3) will the European Union be accountable to pressure from below. In this article, we focus on the degree and forms of social movement participation in the public discourse and collective action concerning Europe—that is, their capacity to take part in the debate and mobilization referring to European issues, targets, and actors. On the basis of a comparative dataset that includes content analyses of daily press and interview data from seven European countries, we argue that various forms of Europeanization of the public discourse and mobilization by social movements are indeed on the rise, with a growing presence not only of purely European actors but also of European targets and frames, as well as transnational movement networks. Changes across time emerge, with the development of (conflictual) forms of "Europeanization from below."

The politics of immigration in liberal democracies exhibits strong similarities that are, contrary to the scholarly consensus, broadly expansionist and inclusive. Nevertheless, three groups of states display distinct modes of immigration politics. Divergent immigration histories mold popular attitudes toward migration and ethnic heterogeneity and affect the institutionalization of migration policy and politics. The English-speaking settler societies (the United States, Canada, and Australia) have histories of periodically open immigration, machineries of immigration planning and regulation, and densely organized webs of interest groups contesting policies. Their institutionalized politics favors expansionary policies and is relatively immune to sharp swings in direction. Many European states (France, Britain, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Belgium) experienced mass migration only after World War II and in a form that introduced significant non-European minorities. Their immigration politics is shaped by what most see as the unfortunate consequences of those episodes and are partially institutionalized and highly volatile and conflictual. European states until recently sending countries (Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece) deal with migration pressures for the first time in their modern histories, under crisis conditions, and in the context of intensifying coordination of policies within the European Union. We should expect the normalization of immigration politics in both sets of European states. Although they are unlikely to appropriate the policies of the English-speaking democracies, which should remain unique in their openness to mass immigration, their approach to immigration will, nevertheless, take the liberal democratic form.

This study analyses the possible impact of the European Union (EU) on the development of the relations between business interest groups and the government in Turkey, more precisely on the interventions of the business interest groups in domestic policy-making. Hence it deals with the links between the progress of the relationship between Turkey and the EU and the development of domestic interest group activity in Turkey.

The progress of Turkey’s relations with the EU enhanced the visibility of the Turkish Peak Business Organizations (PBOs) in representing Turkish business interests in Brussels. Moreover, the evolution of the activities of the PBOs, provides a broader understanding of the developments of the general characteristics of the relations between the government and business interest groups in Turkey. Hence the investigation focuses on the major Turkish PBOs.

We examine the relations of Turkish PBOs with the EU, essentially, on the basis of the observation of their transnational actions within the EU as well as their participation in financial and technical assistance programmes of the EU and in the joint institutional structures of the association regime between Turkey and the EU. By analysing these two dimensions we assess the repercussions of the socialization of the Turkish PBOs on their strategies of action in dealing with European Affairs, on discourses they adopted regarding domestic policy-making and on their organizational structure and policy agenda.

We elaborate our topic with reference to the Europeanization concept, which covers the examination of the consequences of the European governance on national systems. Through the Europeanization concept we observe the correlation between the progress of the Turkey-EU relations and the ongoing process of change in the patterns of interventions of the Turkish business interest groups in domestic policy-making.

Doctorat en sciences politiques
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This doctoral thesis explores under what circumstances executive actors, political parties and interest groups gain visibility in EU (European Union) related debates in the Spanish media for the period 2005-2015. The case of Spain allows exploring aspects so far subjected to little empirical investigations. For example, the motivations of Europhile parties’ to pay attention to the EU, to what extent parties use an EU frame to achieve political goals in a multilevel system of government, or the changing patterns of politicization of EU issues in one of the countries more seriously hit by the euro crisis. The analysis relies on the content analysis of 40.000 stories and 354.000 claims of political actors published in El País and El Mundo from 2005 to 2015. The first chapter, devoted to the analysis of executive actors and political parties, corroborates that political actors react to top-down pressures. Executive actors, those with more media visibility, mainly react to the approval of new EU normative and events, such as European Council meetings, while the visibility of political parties is more associated to European parliament elections. Yet, the thesis shows that political actors do not react only to EU processes and events. Even if European integration is not a politicized issue in Spain, the analysis of public debates on EU affairs show that parties use Europe strategically, as part of their competition to each other in the domestic political arena. Results also illustrate that the euro crisis did not redistribute significantly political actors’ visibility in the media. Even if challenger parties were very critical of most decisions adopted to overcome the crisis, their visibility on EU related public debates did not significantly increase during this critical juncture. Finally, even if European integration is not a politicized issue, as far as the EU is associated with domestic political debates, patterns of media political parallelism emerge. For example, the visibility of secessionist Catalan parties in EU related debates only increases parallel to increasing support for independence in El Mundo. The second chapter, devoted to the analysis of interest groups, corroborates that in this case top-down processes do not play an important role in explaining their visibility in EU related debates. Interest groups do not obtain more media coverage when new normative is discussed at the EU level, not even on those policy areas where the EU has more competences. Yet, stories where new EU regulation in the fields of energy, environment, labor and social issues is discussed, show higher diversity of interest groups than policy domains of economic nature, which are monopolized by few groups. The analysis also shows that debates related to the European parliament and the European Commission are generally associated with a more pluralistic patterns, involving interest groups of different types, than those where the European Council participate. The visibility of interest groups does not increase neither during the approval of new EU normative, nor when their implementation is discussed at domestic level. Interest groups with a role in the implementation process have no visibility in public debates on European affairs, not even on highly politicized issues. Regarding the impact of the euro crisis, it did raise attention to previously excluded groups in EU related debates, such as labor unions or citizens groups. Yet, important differences exist between El Mundo and El País. The analysis of interest groups further corroborates that the media are not passive actors but may be actively involved in the process of giving some actors more attention in public debates to support their political allies.
Aquesta tesi doctoral explora les circumstàncies en les que actors de l'executiu, partits polítics i grups d'interès obtenen visibilitat en els debats relacionats amb la UE (Unió Europea), publicats pels mitjans de comunicació espanyols durant el període 2005-2015. El cas d'Espanya permet explorar aspectes poc investigats des d’un punt de vista empíric fins ara. Per exemple, les motivacions per les quals els partits euròfils presten atenció a la UE, fins a quin punt utilitzen un emmarcat europeu per a aconseguir objectius polítics en un sistema de govern multinivell, o els canvis en els patrons de politització dels assumptes europeus en un dels països més afectats per l'Euro crisi. L'estudi es basa en l'anàlisi del contingut de 40.000 notícies i 354.000 afirmacions d'actors polítics, publicats en El País i El Mundo entre 2005 i 2015. El primer capítol, enfocat en l'anàlisi dels actors de l'executiu i els partits polítics, corrobora que els actors polítics reaccionen a pressions top-down. Els actors de l'executiu, aquells amb més visibilitat mediàtica, reaccionen principalment a l'aprovació de nova normativa i esdeveniments europeus, com, per exemple, reunions del Consell Europeu, mentre que la visibilitat dels partits polítics està més associada amb les eleccions al Parlament Europeu. No obstant això, aquesta tesi mostra que els actors polítics no només reaccionen a processos i esdeveniments europeus. Fins i tot si la integració europea no és un assumpte polititzat a Espanya, l'anàlisi dels debats públics sobre assumptes europeus mostra que els partits utilitzen Europa de manera estratègica, com a part de la competició partidista en l’arena política domèstica. Els resultats il·lustren que l'Euro crisi no va implicar una redistribució significativa de la cobertura mediàtica dels actors polítics. Malgrat els partits challenger van ser molt crítics amb la majoria de les decisions adoptades per a superar la crisi, la seva visibilitat en els debats públics relacionats amb la UE no va augmentar significativament durant aquesta conjuntura crítica. Finalment, la tesi mostra que tot i que la integració europea no és un assumpte polititzat, en la mesura en que la UE s'associa amb debats polítics domèstics, emergeixen patrons de paral·lelisme polític en la cobertura mediàtica. Per exemple, la visibilitat dels partits catalans secessionistes en debats on es fa referència a la UE només augmenta paral·lelament a l'increment del suport a la independència a El Mundo. El segon capítol, centrat en l'anàlisi dels grups d'interès, demostra que els processos top-down no juguen un paper important a l’hora d’explicar la seva visibilitat en els debats relacionats amb la UE. Els grups d'interès no obtenen major cobertura mediàtica quan es debat nova normativa europea, ni tan sols en aquells àmbits en els que la UE té més competències. No obstant això, notícies sobre l'aprovació de nova regulació europea en àmbits com l'energia, el medi ambient, el treball o els assumptes socials mostren una major diversitat de grups d'interès que aquelles sobre assumpres econòmics, monopolitzades per pocs grups. L'anàlisi també mostra que els debats relacionats amb el Parlament Europeu i la Comissió Europea, generalment es troben associats amb patrons més plurals, involucrant diferents grups d'interès, que aquells en els quals participa el Consell Europeu. La visibilitat dels grups d'interès no és elevada durant la discussió de normativa a nivell europeu ni tampoc durant el procés d’implementació a nivell domèstic. Els grups d'interès amb un rol en el procés d'implementació no obtenen visibilitat en els debats públics sobre els assumptes europeus, ni tant sols en assumptes molt polititzats. Respecte a l'impacte de l'Euro crisi, aquesta va augmentar l'atenció a grups prèviament exclosos dels debats sobre la UE, com, per exemple, sindicats i grups de ciutadans. No obstant, existeixen diferències importants entre El País i El Mundo. L'anàlisi sobre els grups d'interès corrobora que els mitjans de comunicació no són actors passius, sinó que participen activament en el procés, donant més cobertura mediàtica a determinats actors amb l’objectiu de donar suport als seus aliats polítics.
Esta tesis doctoral explora las circunstancias en las que actores del ejecutivo, partidos políticos y grupos de interés obtienen visibilidad en los debates relacionados con la UE (Unión Europea), publicados por los medios de comunicación españoles durante el periodo 2005-2015. El caso de España permite explorar aspectos poco investigados desde un punto de vista empírico hasta el momento. Por ejemplo, las motivaciones por las que los partidos eurófilos prestan atención a la UE, hasta qué punto usan un enmarcado europeo para lograr sus objetivos políticos en un sistema de gobierno multinivel, o los cambios en los patrones de politización de los asuntos europeos en uno de los países más afectados por la Euro crisis. El estudio se basa en el análisis del contenido de 40.000 noticias y 354.000 afirmaciones de actores políticos, publicadas en El País y El Mundo entre 2005 y 2015. El primer capítulo, centrado en el análisis de los actores del ejecutivo y los partidos políticos, corrobora que los actores políticos reacciones a presiones top- down. Los actores del ejecutivo, aquellos con más visibilidad mediática, reaccionan principalmente a la aprobación de nueva normativa y eventos europeos, como, por ejemplo, reuniones del Consejo Europeo, mientras que la visibilidad de los partidos políticos está más asociada con las elecciones al Parlamento Europeo. Sin embargo, esta tesis muestra que los actores políticos no sólo reaccionan a estos procesos y eventos europeos. Incluso si la integración europea no es un asunto politizado en España, el análisis de los debates públicos sobre asuntos europeos muestra que los partidos usan Europa de forma estratégica, como parte de la competición partidista en la arena política doméstica. Los resultados también ilustran que la Euro crisis no implicó una redistribución significativa de la cobertura mediática de los actores políticos. A pesar de que los partidos challenger fueron muy críticos con la mayoría de las decisiones adoptadas para superar la crisis, su visibilidad en los debates públicos relacionados con la UE no aumentó significativamente durante esta coyuntura crítica. Finalmente, la tesis muestra que a pesar de que la integración europea no es un asunto politizado, en la medida en que la UE se asocia con debates políticos domésticos, emergen patrones de paralelismo político en la cobertura mediática. Por ejemplo, la visibilidad de los partidos catalanes secesionistas en debates en los que se hace referencia a Europa solo aumenta paralelamente al incremento del apoyo a la independencia en El Mundo. El segundo capítulo, centrado en el análisis de los grupos de interés, demuestra que los procesos top-down no juegan un papel importante para explicar su visibilidad en los debates relacionados con la UE. Los grupos de interés no obtienen mayor cobertura mediática cuando se debate nueva normativa europea, ni siquiera en aquellos ámbitos en los que la UE tiene más competencias. No obstante, noticias sobre la aprobación de nueva regulación europea en ámbitos como la energía, el medio ambiente, el trabajo o los asuntos sociales muestran una mayor diversidad de grupos de interés que aquellas sobre asuntos económicos, monopolizadas por pocos grupos. El análisis también muestra que los debates relacionados con el Parlamento Europeo y la Comisión Europea, generalmente se encuentran asociados con patrones más plurales, involucrando diferentes grupos de interés, que aquellos en los que participa el Consejo Europeo. La visibilidad de los grupos de interés no es elevada durante la discusión de normativa a nivel europeo ni tampoco durante el proceso de implementación a nivel doméstico. Los grupos de interés con un rol en el proceso de implementación no obtienen visibilidad en los debates públicos sobre los asuntos europeos, ni siquiera en asuntos muy politizados. Con respecto al impacto de la Euro crisis, ésta aumentó la atención a grupos previamente excluidos de los debates sobre la UE, como, por ejemplo, sindicatos y grupos de ciudadanos. No obstante, existen diferencias importantes entre El País y El Mundo. El análisis sobre los grupos de interés corrobora que los medios de comunicación no son actores pasivos, sino que participan activamente en el proceso, dando más cobertura mediática a determinados actores con el objetivo de apoyar a sus aliados políticos.

Defence date: 5 February 2010
Examining Board: Donatella Della Porta (EUI) (Supervisor), Colin Crouch (University of Warwick, Business School), Klaus Eder (Humboldt-Universität Berlin), Marco Giugni (Université de Genève)
First made available online on 26 March 2013.
The following thesis looks at the contentious action of the unemployed in Paris and Berlin. The thesis investigates the role of local organisations of the unemployed in contentious activities. More specifically, it looks at the forms of collective action these local organisations are engaged in, and asks about which conditions lead to the disruptive activities considered crucial for poor people’s actors. This is done by analysing different empirical sources: semi-structured interviews, participant observation, surveys, and expert interviews. In order to describe the forms of contentious engagement seen and the role of local organisations, the second part employs an analytical descriptive approach. In an attempt to explain the tactical choices of organisations of the unemployed I link four different conditions (access to resources, access to the field of institutionalised actors, belonging to a counter-cultural network and movement experience) to the use of disruptive activities. Combining all four conditions I then carry out a Comparative Qualitative Analysis (QCA). One important insight of the thesis is that contentious action by the poor can be stabilised over time. Further, the thesis also shows that the two fields of local organisations are characterised by different features. Some features, for example the existence of certain types of organisations - as defined by their preferred activities - can be explained by the political system and, more particularly, by the institutions of contention present in each country. However, there are also many similarities between the fields, showing that national opportunity structures explain only some aspects of contentious action. In looking at the conditions leading to the use of disruptive action, the thesis shows that political opportunities are just one of several other factors that explain types of contentious engagement. The thesis disconfirms the assumption of the central role of exclusion from centres of political and discursive power and the lack of resources in accounting for disruptive action. It is more important that organisations of the unemployed belong to a counter-cultural network, defined as a necessary, albeit not a sufficient condition for disruptive action.

Defence date: 18 May 2017
Examining Board: Professor Adrienne Héritier, EUI (Supervisor); Professor László Bruszt, EUI; Professor Pieter Bouwen, University of Leuven; Professor Susanne K. Schmidt, University of Bremen
Worker migration across EU member states’ borders constitutes an increasingly salient issue. Unlike the liberalization of trade in goods, it has spilled into other policy areas in many unexpected ways. It contributed to turning the so called Bolkestein Directive on services into a highly politicized policymaking episode. Subsequent decisions adopted by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) have only aggravated looming conflicts between high and low standard countries, new and old member states, competing social partners and political parties within the European Parliament. Policy issues that are resolutely foreign to EU competences, like the right to strike, have been affected as well. Simply put, recent policy developments about worker migration illustrate the increasingly contested nature of European integration. In that context, decision makers are trapped into a prisoner’s dilemma that is a real or perceived risk arising from regulatory competition. Hence, member states’ preference heterogeneity translates into an amplified risk of policymaking deadlock. Therefore, the question that this dissertation aims to answer is: under which conditions can EU institutions collectively negotiate positive policy solutions in the context of regulatory competition? Taken in isolation, a change in member state’s bargaining attitudes is unlikely and puzzling. Instead, I argue that when there is a high risk of deadlock in the Council the successful negotiation of policy instruments depends significantly on the relative homogeneity of preferences of competing social partners and their ability to defend pan‐European interests next to national immediate interests. The empirical analysis examines four cases of policy negotiations in relation to worker mobility within the EU. Negotiations over the 2006 Services Directive are sliced into two distinct strategic interactions. In addition, I examine the failed negotiations over the 2012 Monti II Proposal on the right to take collective action and the successful negotiations over the 2014 Directive on the enforcement of the 1996 Posted Worker Directive. The selection of cases aims to carry out a conceptual experiment in which the strategic setting is maintained relatively constant while variations in actors’ preferences and strategies may affect policy outputs.

Defence date: 7 July 1989
Examining Board: Prof. Rudolf Wildenmann, Universität Mannheim (supervisor) ; Prof. David Coombes, National Institute of Higher Education, Limerick (external supervisor) ; Dr. Roland Bieber, European Parliament, Luxembourg ; Prof. Birgitta Nedelmann, Universität Mainz ; Prof. Roger Morgan, European University Institute
First made available online on 8 February 2019
The thesis presents an analysis of the transnational political groups of the European Parliament, relating this to theories of political parties, parliaments and representation, while emphasising that existing comparative studies applied, to Europe are of limited value in explaining the nature of political organisation at the European level. The thesis postulates that it is essential that the political groups be analysed in terms of the nature of the European Community itself as a fluid polity and illustrates the problems of understanding European Integration as a political process. An analysis of the functions and role of the political groups is carried out and the study concludes that the groups function effectively as organisers of the European Parliament, with integrative and representational functions, but that at this stage of their development they cannot be seen as European parties. The study is based on research and analysis carried out through interviews conducted by the author as an active member of the European University Institute Survey team for the Study of MEPs, and supplemented by interviews with EP and political group officials.

AbstractFood systems all over the world are increasingly under pressure: according to the United Nations, in 2020, 2.37 billion people suffered hunger or were unable to eat a healthy balanced diet on a regular basis. This worrying scenario, mainly affecting developing countries in the Global South, has been exacerbated by different phenomena such as climate change, the global spread of Covid-19, and recent geopolitical tensions. In this context, innovation and technological progress have been considered important allies to promote environmental, social and economic sustainability in the food sector and provide solid answers to the urgent demand of accessible and safe food for present and future generations. So-called Novel Foods represent an interesting and relevant example of the potential role of innovation for the guaranteeing of food security. This introductive chapter aims to present the main issues affecting the food sector globally and offer some first insights on this Volume’s main topics: Novel Foods in the European Union and a particular category of ‘new’ foods, namely insects for human consumption. The structure of the book and the reasons behind the content selection are explored, highlighting the importance of an interdisciplinary approach to such a complex topic.

Abstract Policymakers across Europe have increasingly emphasised the importance of paying close attention to the social dimension of higher education and taking further steps to ensure that the composition of Europe’s universities more adequately reflects the diversity of the wider population. While there have been a number of studies that have explored this through analyses of European- and national-level policy and others that have assessed a range of quantitative indicators related to student diversity, this chapter assumes, in contrast, an interpretivist stance; it is interested in the perspectives of those studying and working ‘on the ground’ within the European Higher Education Area. Specifically, we seek to answer this research question: To what extent do students and staff, across Europe, believe that higher education access and experiences are differentiated by social characteristics (such as class/family background, race/ethnicity/migration background, gender and age)? In doing so, we draw on data from a large European Research Council-funded project, including 54 focus groups with undergraduate students (a total of 295 individuals) and 72 in-depth individual interviews with members of higher education staff (both academic and non-academic). Fieldwork was conducted in three higher education institutions in each of the following countries: Denmark, UK-England, Germany, Ireland, Poland and Spain—nations chosen to provide diversity with respect to welfare regime, relationship to the European Union and mechanisms for funding higher education. We explore commonalities and differences between staff and students and between different countries, before identifying some implications for policymakers keen to promote further social inclusion within Europe’s higher education institutions (HEIs).

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries. Since the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2021, governments across the world have mobilised on a tremendous scale and put in place different policies to contain the spread of the virus and its negative effects on society. International organisations have supported these efforts through evidence-based policy recommendations and emergency financing packages. This chapter presents a brief overview of the responses made by international organisations and European Union towards COVID-19. Special attention is given to the guidance of these organisations on the changes in social insurance and pension plans to protect the most vulnerable population groups.

AbstractTrust in journalism in Europe and beyond has been undermined by a series of scandals, by the closeness of journalists to political parties and government, but also by more frequent attacks against freedom of speech and of the press run especially by populist leaders and new authoritarian governments. In some countries, like Hungary, Poland and Italy, the press freedom index is in steep decline, and governments have also entered a ‘war’ with journalism, putting increasing pressure on the free exercise of the profession, restricting budgets and the autonomy of public service broadcasting. In our chapter, we critically discuss the responses, i.e. counter-strategies, for trust-(re)building that this disruption triggers, from a top-down European Union (EU) policy perspective. We assess the EU’s response to the authoritarian and fake news challenge and discuss the limits of a voluntary (self) regulatory approach in light of public sphere standards.

AbstractHydropower is at the cross-road of different policies on renewable energy, climate change, water and nature. Knowledge of current policies and regulations at different levels is crucial for understanding the framework conditions for more sustainable hydropower. This chapter examines the role of policy in planning and implementing mitigation actions for European hydropower. The overarching framework is set by European Union legislation in particular the Water Framework Directive, EU policies on nature/biodiversity and the EU agenda for energy and climate. All these different policies should be taken into account in a balanced way considering synergies and trade-offs. EU policies are complemented by national legislation that sets the regulatory framework for hydropower mitigation measures in each country. The impacts of hydropower for which mitigation is most commonly required by legislation are the disruption of upstream fish migration and the modification of flow conditions. Supported by a policy analysis of eight European countries, this chapter shows that recent changes in environmental legislation and societal pressure have reduced permit duration for hydropower plants. Further, the Water Framework Directive and national policy revisions have triggered modifications in authorisation procedures for hydropower at the benefit of implementing mitigation measures.

The international metal processing industries are very concerned about the importation of scrap metal contaminated by radioactivity. Many of the problems are being identified while these materials, either unprocessed scrap, or processed materials, are being transported in the public domain. Because of this concern, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), with the support of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) circulated a survey to various countries and interested groups. Following assessment of the survey, a meeting was convened in April 2004 to discuss and evaluate the issues. Three major issues were identified at the initial meeting. • First, an internationally acceptable scrap metal radiation monitoring and response protocol is needed. • Second, international training programs are needed to address multiple areas, almost all having emphasis on the transport mode; these include addressing such topics as protocol implementation, optimum location of monitors, acceptable detector sensitivities, calibration and maintenance needs, incident reporting, handling radioactive materials after detection. • Third, international information exchange within the scrap metal industry is needed to share data and experiences on contaminated scrap incidents, especially those occurring at international borders during the transport of these materials. The “open border” policy of the European Union makes the collection and dissemination of this information sharing particularly time critical. The paper reviews the results of the initial meeting, and elaborates on the efforts undertaken since that meeting.

In the article the problems of the classification of financial mechanisms of healthcare systems were considered. The well-known types of the financial mechanisms of healthcare systems were described and the authors argued the importance of the development of new classification of financial mechanism of healthcare systems in the EU, which will be based on the application of quantitative methods. The purpose of the research is cluster (or regimes of funding healthcare system) analysis and development for EU countries over long-term period of 2000-2017.The authors used k-means method for the cluster analysis and revealed 5 clusters (groups) for the characteristics of the different regimes of funding healthcare system in the EU countries.

The aim of the research is to explore the development of trade relations between the Visegrád countries and their major Western European partners since accession to the European Union. The topic is currently an important one, as the Visegrád region is highly dependent on Western European countries, especially in the area of foreign trade. The research analyzed how the 2008-2009 global economic crisis and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in Europe affected these trade relationships, i.e. did it cause significant changes in levels of relationship and/or trends. To answer this question, this paper used a time-series analysis method called Interrupted Time Series Analysis. As a result, statistically significant changes in the level and trend of foreign trade relations between the Visegrád countries and their Western European partners were detected. Finally, a more detailed breakdown of product groups also revealed which product groups are most responsible for slowing down the growth of trade relations.

Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to identify how entrepreneurs from European Union (EU) use informational and communicational technologies in their business activities. We also try to identify the benefits and the challenges arisen for the European entrepreneurs in using information technologies. Research methodology – we analyze a sample of EU countries, by including them into two groups, according to the stage of their economic development. As methods, we use the logical-constructive method and also comparative methods. We also use the benchmarking method in order to estimate country indicators in the sample and compare them. Findings – the results of our study emphasize that e-entrepreneurship in developed countries is more advanced compared to developing countries. There are also significant differences regarding the use of informational technologies between types of firms by their size. Research limitations – are given by the availability of data. Practical implications – we emphasize that in order to support the development of E-entrepreneurship in the EU, government policies should pay more attention to the development of information technology infrastructure. Originality/Value – comes from grouping the EU countries into two groups, according to their stage of economic development. And, comparing the two groups as regards the use of informational and communication technologies. Keywords: information technology, e-entrepreneurship, e-business, innovation, EU countries

The paper presents the results of the analysis of NUTS 2 regions with a focus on the regions of Visegrad countries. The aim is to assess the level of development of the regions in the area of Knowledge Intensive Business Services (KIBS) in relation to their economic level and position within the regions of the EU. The division of regions into groups was based on the clustering method, including Ward's method for determining the number of groups. Furthermore, the correlation between employment shares in KIBS and the level of economic development of the regions was examined. The resulting data confirms a statistically significant dependence between GDP per capita and the aggregate indicator of employment share in KIBS, especially in the sub-areas of knowledge market services and high-technology services.

The formation and existence of degraded areas is one of the consequences of civilization, which has a negative impact on both the environment and economic development in the municipality. The problem of degraded areas has been faced by all countries worldwide, including Latvia, when as a result of the change of the state political system in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet system, a large number of inactive production companies appeared, resulting in a significant number of polluted / degraded areas. To solve the existing problem, local governments in Latvia use European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) funding under the Operational Program ‘Growth and Employment’ 5.6.2, specific support objective ‘Revitalization of territories by regenerating degraded areas in accordance with local government integrated development programs’ (SSO 5.6.2) to ensure the sustainable development of the territory by revitalizing degraded areas. In the implementation of projects, local governments must ensure the fulfilment of the indicators planned in the projects in the following groups of indicators: the area of degraded areas has been renewed, adapted for the location of new businesses or expansion of existing businesses in order to promote employment and economic activity in local governments; new jobs created in supported areas; non-financial investments made by businesses located in the supported territory in their own intangible investments and fixed assets. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the indicators of the implemented projects in order to be able to draw conclusions about the financial aspects of the project implementation and the progress of the project implementation.

The energy supply of the future in the EU will be a mix of renewable, fossil and nuclear. There are 145 nuclear power reactors in operation in 15 out of the 27 EU countries, with installed power ∼132 GWe. The age distribution of current nuclear power plants in EU is such that in 2010 most of them will have passed 20-years and approximately 25% of them 30 years of age. The decrease of energy supply from nuclear generated electricity can not always be compensated in a reliable and economical way within a short time span. For this situation utilities may be keen to upgrade the reactor output and /or to ask their regulatory bodies for longer term operation. Under the research financed in the Euratom part of the Research Directorate (RTD) of the European Commission several projects explicitly address the safe long term operation of nuclear power plants (NULIFE, LONGLIFE) and the topics proposed in the 2010 call explicitly address issues concerning component ageing, in particular non metallic components, i.e. instrumentation and cables (I&C) and concrete ageing. This paper presents an overview of the plans for long term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plants in the EU. Special emphasis is given on research activities on component ageing management and long term operation issues related to safety.

Banking sector plays a key role in financial system of every developed country. To know possible weaknesses proper risk management is necessary. European Banking Authority (EBA) is the arterial institution in attempt to consolidate risk management among different countries of European Union. EBA discloses on quarterly basis various Key Risk Indicators (KRIs) for all EU member countries. The goal of this paper is to analyze chosen KRIs of all EU countries and based on distances and similarities among them, insert them into homogenous groups. The purpose of the analysis is to seek insights into different countries bank’s sector and finding similarities among them, which might not be visible at the first glance. For the research, both hierarchical and non- hierarchical cluster analysis were performed. Results show that we could observe four groups of states which could be, with a little generalization, labeled as eastern countries, southern countries, northern countries and middle and core countries of EU, based on analyzed KRIs.

European welfare states, with their comprehensive and generous welfare model, create the largest part of general government expenditures in the European Union member countries. Given the rising trend of social expenditure and the long-run challenges coming from population ageing, this paper addresses the issue of social dominance, a situation in which, particularly when facing limited fiscal space, social expenditure could crowd-out other productive public expenditures, thus undermining growth potentials and possibly threatening fiscal sustainability. Using a panel regression analysis, the aim of the paper is to test whether social protection expenditure has crowded-out expenditures on other purposes in the European Union in the period 1995-2018. The results provide some evidence of crowding-out of infrastructure spending and education spending. Additionally, deficit financing and rising government debt have a significant adverse effect on spending on infrastructure, education and core public services, confirming that they are more prone to cutbacks in times of deteriorating public finance. These findings, along with the long-run fiscal pressure from the ‘greying population’ and the high political costs of welfare reforms suggest significant future risks of social dominance.

VERLIFE – “Unified Procedure for Lifetime Assessment of Components and Piping in WWER NPPs during Operation” was developed within the 5th Framework Program of the European Union in 2003 and later upgraded within the 6th Framework Program project “COVERS – Safety of WWER NPPs” of the European Union in 2008. This Procedure has to fill the gap in original Soviet/Russian Codes and Rules for WWER type NPPs, as these codes were developed only for design and manufacture and were not changed since their second edition in 1989. VERLIFE Procedure is based on these Russian codes but incorporates also new developments in research, mainly in fracture mechanics, and also some principal approaches used in PWR codes. To assure that VERLIFE Procedure will remain a living document, new 3-year IAEA project (in close co-operation with another project 6th Framework Program of the European Union “NULIFE – Plant Life Management of NPPs”) has started in 2009. Within this project, upgrading/updating of the VERLIFE procedure is prepared together with the extension by following procedures: - Lifetime of reactor pressure vessel internals. - Leak-before-break concept for WWER NPPs. - No-break-zone for WWER NPPs. - Probabilistic approach for failure and lifetime assessment of WWER reactor pressure vessels and primary piping (including Risk-informed ISI). - Thermal fatigue evaluation. Final document, after its approval by expert groups of the IAEA and NULIFE, will be issued as “IAEA Guidelines for Integrity and Lifetime Assessment of Components and Piping in WWER NPPs”. The paper will describe these main principles and also future plans.

The Ukraine war has added to the pressure to address the links between the environment, natural resource management and conflict. This SIPRI Research Policy Paper assesses the priorities of selected European Union (EU) member states regarding climate-related security risks, explores their strategies for pursuing these at EU level and identifies steps for further action. It finds that the appetite to tackle climate-related security risks at EU level is mixed. While maintaining the operational efficiency of the military is a red line, concentrating efforts on research, development and peacekeeping is acceptable even to countries that do not prioritize climate insecurity in their policies. Country strategies for pursuing such efforts involve spotlighting climate security during their respective rotating Council presidencies, working closely with the European External Action Service and the European Commission, and collaborating with like-minded member states. The paper recommends additional steps for action but in order to make effective adjustments to EU processes, climate security will need greater prominence on the EU agenda.

The purpose of this report is to compare the risk communication strategies and public health mitigation measures implemented by Germany, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom (UK) in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic based on publicly available documents. The report compares the country responses both in relation to one another and to the recommendations and guidance of the World Health Organization where available. The comparative report is an output of Work Package 1 from the research project PAN-FIGHT (Fighting pandemics with enhanced risk communication: Messages, compliance and vulnerability during the COVID-19 outbreak), which is financially supported by the Norwegian Research Council's extraordinary programme for corona research. PAN-FIGHT adopts a comparative approach which follows a “most different systems” variation as a logic of comparison guiding the research (Przeworski & Teune, 1970). The countries in this study include two EU member States (Sweden, Germany), one which was engaged in an exit process from the EU membership (the UK), and two non-European Union states, but both members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA): Norway and Switzerland. Furthermore, Germany and Switzerland govern by the Continental European Federal administrative model, with a relatively weak central bureaucracy and strong subnational, decentralised institutions. Norway and Sweden adhere to the Scandinavian model—a unitary but fairly decentralised system with power bestowed to the local authorities. The United Kingdom applies the Anglo-Saxon model, characterized by New Public Management (NPM) and decentralised managerial practices (Einhorn & Logue, 2003; Kuhlmann & Wollmann, 2014; Petridou et al., 2019). In total, PAN-FIGHT is comprised of 5 Work Packages (WPs), which are research-, recommendation-, and practice-oriented. The WPs seek to respond to the following research questions and accomplish the following: WP1: What are the characteristics of governmental and public health authorities’ risk communication strategies in five European countries, both in comparison to each other and in relation to the official strategies proposed by WHO? WP2: To what extent and how does the general public’s understanding, induced by national risk communication, vary across five countries, in relation to factors such as social capital, age, gender, socio-economic status and household composition? WP3: Based on data generated in WP1 and WP2, what is the significance of being male or female in terms of individual susceptibility to risk communication and subsequent vulnerability during the COVID-19 outbreak? WP4: Based on insight and knowledge generated in WPs 1 and 2, what recommendations can we offer national and local governments and health institutions on enhancing their risk communication strategies to curb pandemic outbreaks? WP5: Enhance health risk communication strategies across five European countries based upon the knowledge and recommendations generated by WPs 1-4. Pre-pandemic preparedness characteristics All five countries had pandemic plans developed prior to 2020, which generally were specific to influenza pandemics but not to coronaviruses. All plans had been updated following the H1N1 pandemic (2009-2010). During the SARS (2003) and MERS (2012) outbreaks, both of which are coronaviruses, all five countries experienced few cases, with notably smaller impacts than the H1N1 epidemic (2009-2010). The UK had conducted several exercises (Exercise Cygnet in 2016, Exercise Cygnus in 2016, and Exercise Iris in 2018) to check their preparedness plans; the reports from these exercises concluded that there were gaps in preparedness for epidemic outbreaks. Germany also simulated an influenza pandemic exercise in 2007 called LÜKEX 07, to train cross-state and cross-department crisis management (Bundesanstalt Technisches Hilfswerk, 2007). In 2017 within the context of the G20, Germany ran a health emergency simulation exercise with WHO and World Bank representatives to prepare for potential future pandemics (Federal Ministry of Health et al., 2017). Prior to COVID-19, only the UK had expert groups, notably the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), that was tasked with providing advice during emergencies. It had been used in previous emergency events (not exclusively limited to health). In contrast, none of the other countries had a similar expert advisory group in place prior to the pandemic. COVID-19 waves in 2020 All five countries experienced two waves of infection in 2020. The first wave occurred during the first half of the year and peaked after March 2020. The second wave arrived during the final quarter. Norway consistently had the lowest number of SARS-CoV-2 infections per million. Germany’s counts were neither the lowest nor the highest. Sweden, Switzerland and the UK alternated in having the highest numbers per million throughout 2020. Implementation of measures to control the spread of infection In Germany, Switzerland and the UK, health policy is the responsibility of regional states, (Länders, cantons and nations, respectively). However, there was a strong initial centralized response in all five countries to mitigate the spread of infection. Later on, country responses varied in the degree to which they were centralized or decentralized. Risk communication In all countries, a large variety of communication channels were used (press briefings, websites, social media, interviews). Digital communication channels were used extensively. Artificial intelligence was used, for example chatbots and decision support systems. Dashboards were used to provide access to and communicate data.

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias