Journal articles on the topic 'Prediction of military conflict'
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Dnov, K. V., A. I. Kolchev, D. А. Seregin, V. K. Mikhalsky, V. D. Bigunets, and A. N. Yatmanov. "Prediction of Suicidal Behavior in Students at Military Academies." Doctor.Ru 19, no. 9 (2020): 65–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.31550/1727-2378-2020-19-9-65-70.
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Study Objective: To develop a mathematical model for predicting suicide risk in students at military academies. Study Design: This was a comparative prospective study. Materials and Methods: One hundred and thirty-three students at the Naval Polytechnic Institute, a subdivision of the Naval Academy named for the Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union N.G. Kuznetsov, participated in the study. Assessment of the participants was done with the following tools: “The Ratio of Value and Accessibility in Various Areas of Life,” “Self-reflection Test,” “Semantic Differential,” “Military Occupational Aptitude,” and the “Mental Well-being Scale” questionnaire. Discriminative analysis was done to develop a mathematical model for predicting suicide risk. Study Results: Participants at high risk for suicide had scores for their personal emotional attitude towards the concepts “military service” and “ego ideal” that were lower by a statistically significant margin (p<0.05), and higher levels of self-reflection. In addition, more of them had intrapsychic conflict. The combination of these psychological characteristics was a risk factor for suicidal behavior in these military academy students. Conclusion: An informative model for predicting suicide risk in naval academy students was created, using discriminant modelling. Keywords: suicide risk, prediction, officer trainee, semantic differential, military servicemen
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Goldfarb, Avi, and Jon R. Lindsay. "Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War." International Security 46, no. 3 (February 25, 2022): 7–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00425.
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Abstract Recent scholarship on artificial intelligence (AI) and international security focuses on the political and ethical consequences of replacing human warriors with machines. Yet AI is not a simple substitute for human decision-making. The advances in commercial machine learning that are reducing the costs of statistical prediction are simultaneously increasing the value of data (which enable prediction) and judgment (which determines why prediction matters). But these key complements—quality data and clear judgment—may not be present, or present to the same degree, in the uncertain and conflictual business of war. This has two important strategic implications. First, military organizations that adopt AI will tend to become more complex to accommodate the challenges of data and judgment across a variety of decision-making tasks. Second, data and judgment will tend to become attractive targets in strategic competition. As a result, conflicts involving AI complements are likely to unfold very differently than visions of AI substitution would suggest. Rather than rapid robotic wars and decisive shifts in military power, AI-enabled conflict will likely involve significant uncertainty, organizational friction, and chronic controversy. Greater military reliance on AI will therefore make the human element in war even more important, not less.
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Lutsik, Julia, Serhii Korotin, and Olexandr Kuchmeyev. "Prediction of possible scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian economy in the context of a “hybrid” war the Russian Federation." Journal of Scientific Papers "Social development and Security" 10, no. 1 (February 29, 2020): 156–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.33445/sds.2020.10.1.16.
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In the article identifies that in modern military conflicts have emphasis is shifting towards a comprehensive application of political, economic, informational and other non-military measures.
It was noted that for achieve the objectives in the “hybrid” war – the economic sphere is an important operating space and a key non-military mechanism for the preparation and realization of aggression. It was found that for maximum attenuation in the “non-contact” economic potential enemy state, the use of economic instruments in combination with other non-military levers can significantly minimize the use of armed arsenal of the aggressor country. In the article selected research object, the object of the conflict and stakeholders.
The purpose of the article was to predict the four scenarios of development of the Ukrainian economy and the probability of their achievements along 2020-2035 years, based on the selected baseline scenario. For the formation of the main components of the baseline scenario were analyzed strengths and weaknesses of the internal factors of the economy in view of the major contributing factors, and direct and indirect losses from the warfare of the Russian Federation (RF) in the east of Ukraine and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.
They were analyzed by external economic threats, focusing on the monopoly of economic dependence of Ukraine from Russian markets. As a result, it was revealed the main trends and the key factors that have the largest share of influence on forecasting of economic conflict. Based on this analysis defines the main axis with the extrema, the most affecting on the object of investigation.
Based on the method of scenario planning predicted four possible scenarios of economic development of Ukraine for the next 15 years, the strengths and weaknesses of each simulated scenario. The probabilities of accomplishing the desired, not desired, probable and least probable scenarios are determined.
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DIEHL, PAUL F., and GARY GOERTZ. "Entering International Society." Comparative Political Studies 23, no. 4 (January 1991): 497–518. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414091023004004.
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This article seeks to predict and explain when the process of national independence is accompanied by military conflict. In order to account for military conflict in 121 cases of national independence from 1816-1980, a LISREL model (with multiple indicators) with the following variables is employed: (a) the intrinsic importance of the territory gaining independence, (b) the specific importance of the territory to the former sovereign, (c) the relative power decline of the former sovereign, and (d) international norms at the time of the independence. All variables but the first are statistically significant, and the model accounts for half of the variation in the incidence of military conflict. The international norms variable was found to be the strongest predictor of military conflict. Implications for theory and policy are discussed.
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Simons, Greg. "Hard and Soft Power Approaches to Armed Conflicts: The United States in Iraq and Russia in Syria." Russia in Global Affairs 19, no. 2 (2021): 86–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.31278/1810-6374-2021-19-2-86-110.
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Armed conflicts are generally associated with the use of hard power for coercing and forcing an opponent to do something against its will in a situation where war is an extension of politics. However, there are many scholarly observations about the important role of soft power in armed conflicts, the interaction between hard and soft power, and the effects on one another within the framework of an armed conflict. This paper explores two specific armed conflicts, the 2003 U.S.-led military intervention in Iraq and the 2015 Russian intervention in Syria. Various aspects of hard and soft power approaches are discussed, and the outcome of military operations for the national soft power potential is analyzed. The results of the study show that whereas the Iraq War came as a disaster for the U.S., the military operation in Syria—despite dire predictions—created strengths and opportunities for Russia in international relations.
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Islamova, Oleksandra, Nadiia Moroz, Iryna Kryvoruchko, Inna Savina, Lesia Balahur, and Oleksandr Samoilenko. "Pedagogical Conditions of Conflict Management Readiness Formation of Border Guard Officers." Revista Romaneasca pentru Educatie Multidimensionala 13, no. 4 (December 14, 2021): 373–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.18662/rrem/13.4/488.
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The article is dedicated to the research of the problem of forming conflict management readiness of future border guard officers. The concept "conflict management readiness of future border guards" has been defined. The structure of conflict management readiness of a border guard officer has been determined, which consists of motivational, operational and predictive components. The main criteria for assessing the motivational component of conflict readiness are motivational and regulatory, for operational - cognitive and operational, for predictive component - communicative and prognostic. The study proves that formation of conflict management readiness of future border guard officers is effective if the educational process at a higher military educational institution encompasses the following pedagogical conditions: creation of a favorable socio-psychological climate for the development of the experience of constructive resolution of conflict situations; the use of incentive measures to develop cadets' motivation for constructive resolution of conflict situations; enrichment of the content of professional training of future border guard officers with special knowledge about the nature, structure, functions of conflicts and mechanisms for their prevention and resolution; gradual acquisition by cadets of knowledge and skills of conflict management; ensuring a high level of psychological and pedagogical competence of teaching staff and leaders of training units of higher military educational institutions. Based on the Sectoral Qualification Framework for border guarding in European Union and Common Core Curriculum for training European border guards was developed a curriculum of the training course "Conflict Management in a Border Guard Unit" at the National academy of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine named after Bohdan Khmelnytskyi. The results of the pedagogical experiment showed effectiveness of the defined pedagogical conditions to form conflict management readiness of future border guard officers. The distribution of cadets by levels of conflict management readiness formation in experimental groups at the end of the forming experiment is characterized by a decrease in the number of cadets with a low level (from 48.81% to 21.01%), as well as an increase in the number of future officers with a high level of conflict management readiness formation (from 4,76% to 26,19%). As for the control group, there were less significant changes regarding the level of conflict management readiness formation.
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Beliakova, Polina. "Erosion of Civilian Control in Democracies: A Comprehensive Framework for Comparative Analysis." Comparative Political Studies 54, no. 8 (January 31, 2021): 1393–423. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414021989757.
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Civilian control of the military is a fundamental attribute of democracy. While democracies are less coup-prone, studies treating civilian control as a dependent variable mostly focus on coups. In this paper, I argue that the factors predicting coups in autocracies, weaken civilian control of the military in democracies in different ways. To capture this difference, I advance a new comprehensive framework that includes the erosion of civilian control by competition, insubordination, and deference. I test the argument under conditions of an intrastate conflict—a conducive environment for the erosion of civilian control. A large-N analysis confirms that while intrastate conflict does not lead to coups in democracies, it increases the military’s involvement in government, pointing to alternative forms of erosion taking place. Further case study—Russia’s First Chechen War—demonstrates the causal logic behind the new framework, contributing to the nuanced comparative analysis of civil-military relations across regimes.
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Skibińska, Anna. "Book review: Informacyjny wymiar wojny hybrydowej, red. Marek Wrzosek, Szymon Markiewicz, Zbigniew Modrzejewski, Akademia Sztuki Wojennej, Warszawa 2018, ss. 183." Wschód Europy. Studia humanistyczno-społeczne 6, no. 2 (December 28, 2020): 201–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/we.2020.6.2.201-205.
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A review of the monograph titled “The Information Dimension of Hybrid Warfare,” edited by scientific editors Marek Wrzosk, Szymon Markiewicz, and Zbigniew Modrzejewski, presents the most important issues discussed in this book. Attention was paid to the extensive request of the authors - both in foreign and domestic literature. Although it did not result in a universal, generally accepted definition of "hybrid war", it outlined the context of hybrid conflicts with a particular emphasis on informational actions (including propaganda, disinformation) that are used during this type of conflict. The review also provides an interesting case study. This concerns the course of the hybrid war on the example of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which has been going on since 2014. Despite the difficulties associated with describing the existing conflict, the authors managed to identify several of the most important areas of action on both sides, and then outline three predictive scenarios, "events". The reviewer also recreates the military doctrine of the Russian Federation and the evolution that took place in the 21st century. The electronic and media dimension of hybrid warfare was also analyzed, which is related to technological development and globalization, which is an increasingly important aspect of this type of conflict. The review also highlights the practical implications of skillfully securing information transmitted over wireless networks and protecting the original information from being captured or lost. According to the reviewer, government agencies should strive to create the appropriate infrastructure necessary to counter potential hybrid conflicts.
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Liu, Liwen, Yuanming Wu, Gui Fu, and Chao Zhou. "An Improved Four-Rotor UAV Autonomous Navigation Multisensor Fusion Depth Learning." Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing 2022 (May 26, 2022): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2701359.
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Whether it is for military or civilian use, quadrotor UAV has always been one of research central issues. Most of the current quadrotor drones are manually operated and use GPS signals for navigation, which not only limits the operating range of the drone but also consumes a lot of manpower and material resources. This research mainly studies the method of realizing autonomous flight and conflict avoidance of quadrotor UAV by using multisensor system and deep learning method in extreme flight conditions through track prediction. The convolutional neural network method is used to extract the image information collected by the UAV sensor system. And it uses the cyclic neural network to extract the time feature of the information collected by the UAV sensor. The research results show that the track prediction method based on the deep learning method has higher flight accuracy for quadrotor UAVs. The yaw error of the spatial position is only 2.82%, and the maximum error of the time characteristic error tolerance is only 0.77%.
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Somer, Eli, Aviva Zrihan-Weitzman, Tiffany Fusé, Holly Parker, Ben Dickstein, Shira Maguen, and Brett T. Litz. "Israeli Civilians under Heavy Bombardment: Prediction of the Severity of Post-Traumatic Symptoms." Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 24, no. 5 (October 2009): 389–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x00007196.
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AbstractContext:The military conflict that occurred between Lebanon and Israel in July and August of 2006 was characterized by the heavy bombardment of specific geographic regions in Israel, resulting in considerable civilian casualties and property damage.Objective:Israeli civilians directly and indirectly exposed to bombardment were compared on exposure to the recent bombardment, trauma history, perceived life threat and peritraumatic dissociation during the recent bombardment, and current post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptom severity.Design, Setting, and Participants:Following the conflict, data were collected by telephone from 317 Israeli residents randomly selected from two towns that were subject to differing levels of exposure to the bombardment.Intervention(s):NoneMain Outcome Measure(s):Exposure to trauma during the Second Lebanon War, prior trauma exposure, PTSD symptom severity, perceived life threat, and peri-traumatic dissociation.Results:The residents directly affected by the bombardment (Kiryat Shmona; KS) endorsed more trauma exposure, (p <0.01); more prior trauma, (p <0.01); more life threat, (p <0.01); and greater PTSD symptomatology (12 % of KY participants and 38% of KS participants had probable PTSD), compared to residents in the comparison town (Kfar Yona; KY). Both groups reported a similar degree of peri-event dissociation (KS: M = 7.2 ±3.7; KY: M = 7.3 ±3.0). Perceived life threat mediated the relationship between exposure to bombardment and PTSD symptomatology. Time spent in bomb shelters was not associated with PTSD symptom severity. Prior shelling-related trauma negatively predicted PTSD.Conclusions:The terror of bombardment is a risk factor for PTSD among civil-ians. Although there is considerable resilience in chronically threatened commu-nities, it is prudent to develop and implement public health approaches to prevent those most distressed during and after attacks from developing PTSD. Because, to a small degree, prior trauma exposure buffers the response to bombardment, interventions should consider leveraging citizens' past successful coping.
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Zaytsev, A. G., M. V. Rezvantsev, V. Yu Tegza, A. N. Yatmanov, and V. B. Dergachev. "Mathematical model of forecast successfulness of N.G. Kuznetsov Naval Academy cadets’ professional military adaptation." Bulletin of the Russian Military Medical Academy 20, no. 1 (March 15, 2018): 160–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.17816/brmma12286.
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The development of mathematical model for predicting forecast successfulness of N.G. Kuznetsov Naval Academy cadets’ professional military adaptation is substantiated. It is established that a group of the most successful cadets has a statistically significantly higher achievement and fitness score, higher discipline and lower morbidity. Thus, 66% (64,7%) of the most successful cadets have high discipline, 14 (13,7%) - moderately high. 6% (5,9%) of less successful cadets have average discipline, 14 (13,7%) - low, 2 (1,9%) - very low. 62 (60,8%) of the most successful cadets did not get sick during the last 2 semesters, 18 (17,6%) - rarely got sick. 4 (3,9%) of less successful cadets for the last 2 semesters also did not get sick, 8 (7,8%) - rarely got sick, 10 (9,8%) - often got sick. On the basis of discriminant modeling, a highly informative model for predicting the success of cadets’ educational adaptation in the framework of medico-psychological support activities was developed (λ-Wilks: 0,42842 F (6,75)=16,677 p0,0000, predictive power 84,3%). Predictors of successful military-professorial adaptation of military cadets are the combination of discrepancy between the value and availability of material welfare, the amount of discrepancy between the value and accessibility of the indicators of the methodology «The level of value and accessibility correlation in various life spheres», the accessibility of love, personal emotional attitude to the concept of family. For more successful cadets, there is a slight discrepancy between the value and availability of material welfare, the amount of discrepancy between the level of value and accessibility does not reach the level of intrapsychic conflict. Personal emotional attitude towards the future is more pronounced and the level of accessibility of love (spiritual and physical intimacy with a loved one) is lower. The mathematical model of the prognosis of the success of military-professorial adaptation of cadets of a military high school should be used as part of medical and psychological support for cadets of military universities.
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Kravchuk, Svitlana Leontivna. "WILLINGNESS TO FORGIVENESS AS A PREDICTOR OF MENTAL HEALTH AND PSYCHOLOGICAL RESILIENCE OF DISPLACED PERSONS FROM THE ZONE OF MILITARY CONFLICT IN EASTERN UKRAINE." SOCIAL WELFARE: INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH 1, no. 10 (December 18, 2020): 21. http://dx.doi.org/10.21277/sw.v1i10.503.
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<p>The article is devoted to the problem the characteristics of willingness to forgiveness in displaced persons from the conflict zone. The concepts of forgiveness and psychological resilience are considered. The article examines the characteristics of willingness to forgiveness as a predictor of mental health and psychological resilience of displaced persons from the conflict zone.</p>The presented findings should be taken into account by persons offering professional support for such group of persons.
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Likholetov, Yevhenii. "Rationale of personification of treatment and rehabilitation aid of civilians with adaptive disorders who have experienced psychosocial stress under military conflict, based on forecast severity of consequences." Ukrains'kyi Visnyk Psykhonevrolohii, Volume 29, issue 2 (107) (July 15, 2021): 41–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.36927/2079-0325-v29-is2-2021-7.
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The aim of the work was to develop a technology for predictive assessment of the severity of clinical and psychopathological course and psychosocial consequences of adaptation disorders in civilians affected by psychosocial stress in military conflict, as a basis for determining the scope and content of treatment and rehabilitation measures for this group of patients. 109 people who experienced psychosocial stress in a military conflict were examined: group 1 — 6 wives of fallen servicemen; group 2 — mothers, fathers and wives of combatants who returned to peaceful life, a total of 71 people; group 3 — 32 internally displaced persons. All subjects were diagnosed with mental disorders of the F43.2 cluster — adaptive disorders. In the course of the work a forecasting system was developed, which allows to conduct a multi-vector assessment of the individual’s condition according to the assessment of clinical and psychopathological condition and psychosocial functioning, as well as to form a prognostic assessment of the risk of complications. Three groups were identified to assess the risk of severe disease and complications from the mental sphere, as well as psychosocial maladaptation for individual clusters and in general, for integrated risk: 1) favorable prognosis; 2) conditionally favorable prognosis; 3) unfavorable prognosis. For each of these groups we have proposed a set of diagnostic, therapeutic, rehabilitation and preventive measures. The proposed technology for predicting the risk of adaptation disorders easy to use, informative, suitable for use in practical health care, to determine the scope and content of treatment and rehabilitation care, which allows to recommend it for widespread implementation in clinical practice
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Turchyn, Yaryna, and Lesya Dorоsh. "Prospects of the Eastern Partnership under modern challenges to the European security system." Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review 35, no. 1 (June 1, 2016): 67–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/lfpr-2016-0024.
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Abstract The purpose of the article is to examine the Eastern Partnership initiative as a component of the European Neighbourhood Policy and a tool of regional security by taking into account the factor of Russian aggression and the military conflict in eastern Ukraine. Based on methods of analysis and synthesis, content analysis of primary and secondary sources of information, modelling and prediction, the following objectives are achieved: (1) to determine the vulnerabilities in the programme design, given the current geopolitical threats, and (2) to develop proposals to change the security component of the Eastern Partnership (EaP) within the context of the Russian- Ukrainian conflict. The significant shortcomings of the existing EaP model are highlighted, in particular, the initiative overall ineffectiveness, the EU membership perspective in the long run, disregarded national features, the lack of commitment by the EU countries to strengthen the integration, the security component weakness and the insufficient European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) financial support. It is concluded that intensification of the cooperation of the EaP partner countries in the area of security will not only contribute to the initiative development, but it will also enhance national securities and promote the development of a zone of stability and democracy as well as the European security space consolidation.
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HORIACHKO, Kateryna. "Evaluation of Touristic Risks While Visiting Ukraine and the Risk Perception by Travelers." Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism 12, no. 1 (February 21, 2021): 134. http://dx.doi.org/10.14505/jemt.12.1(49).11.
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International tourist arrivals increase every year. Ukraine has always been a popular country for spending a vacation. However, many foreign tourists have very bad expectations about the trip to Ukraine. The reason is the military conflict in the East of the country. This article aims to explain whether Ukraine is a risky destination for tourists. For this purpose the determination, estimation and prediction of the risks for tourists in the summer of 2018 was conducted. This study shows that the risk is the main motivation of traveller’s destination choice. The methodology to assess risks for foreign tourists who visit Ukraine is proposed in the article. To confirm the tourist threats evaluation model, an investigation was conducted, which included gathering information about potential touristic risks. The list of probably dangerous and mid-level dangerous touristic risks was determined in the summer n of 2019 in Ukraine. The fact that trips to the territory of Ukraine are safe was established.
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BEKLIAMISHEV, V. O. "HISTORICAL MEMORY OF THE GREAT PATRIOTIC WAR IN THE COMMENTS OF «VKONTAKTE» SOCIAL NETWORKUSERS." JOURNAL OF PUBLIC AND MUNICIPAL ADMINISTRATION 10, no. 1 (2021): 12–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/2225-8272-2021-10-1-12-24.
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The purpose of the article is to identify the degree of presence of the Great Patriotic War theme in the network discourse and to analyze the attitude of users to the main events, personalities and forms of commemoration of this conflict. The research methodology is based on the interdisciplinary approach «Predictor Mining», which involves the analysis of Internet content for the sake of users’ behavior markers identification. The 10 largest news communities «VKontakte» (29 286 352 com-ments), as well as 7 political ones, representing the entire ideological spectrum (2 684 135 com-ments) are considered. The interim conclusions are supported by the representative opinion polls data, but its discussion is characterized by a high degree of involvement and emotional saturation. Commentators' historical perceptions are generally poor and stereotyped. The research is imple-mented at the expense of the RFBR grant «Constructing historical memory of military conflicts in network communities: basic narratives, the types of identity, political risks», project № 19-011-00833 A.
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Denham, Bryan E. "Anonymous Attribution During two Periods of Military Conflict: Using Logistic Regression to Study Veiled Sources in American Newspapers." Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly 74, no. 3 (September 1997): 565–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/107769909707400310.
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In this study, nearly 9,000 news paragraphs concerning the military conflicts in Bosnia and Somalia were coded for a series of variables. The use of anonymous attribution varied significantly in Associated Press, Los Angeles Times, and Washington Post content. In addition to providing valuable information about the use of sources, the study also contributes to communication methodology by using logistic regression analysis to test the effects of four predictor variables on an ordinal-level response variable. Scholars who examine source attribution in Western newspapers are encouraged to use the method in future analyses.
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Perepelytsia, Hryhorii. "Settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict on the Donbas in the Focus of the Problem of War and Peace." Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne, no. 2 (June 15, 2021): 21–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.14746/ssp.2021.2.2.
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The purpose of this article is to understand how the blurry nature of hybrid warfare and hybrid peace influences the assessment of national security and the making of adequate foreign and security policy decisions, including, in particular, the prediction of the further course and resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which is not only a threat to Ukraine’s existence but also to European security in general. In order to properly study this issue, the Russo-Ukrainian war on the Donbas was selected as an object. As the main method of the research of this problem was chosen the conflict analysis. The conclusions drawn from this analysis prompt us to differentiate the concepts of war, peace, and conflict and bring our perceptions of them to reality. When the idea of internal conflict replaces the real war, their sophisticated substitution will leave the problem of settlement of the conflict on the Donbas not solved, and the war between Ukraine and Russia is not completed.
Achieving peace by “settlement the conflict on the Donbas” within the framework of a real war of Russia against Ukraine will not lead to its end and sustainable peace. In such a situation, only a temporary “cold peace” is possible. The implementation of the strategy of Ukraine and the international community should begin with the rejection of the “plot for settlement the internal conflict on the Donbas” and the recognition of the reality of the war, in which the belligerent and aggressor is Russia, but not Phantoms DPR/LPR.
The study’s objectives are based on identifying epistemological reasons that make it impossible to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbas and clarify their national and international security consequences. The study results are based on an analysis of the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the process of settling the conflict in Donbas. The article analyzes the mechanism of interaction between hybrid war and hybrid peace in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbas, clarifies the essence of war and peace under existing realities, and identifies epistemological reasons that make it impossible to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbas. The article also analyses the real and probable national and international consequences of the unresolved problem of war and peace in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Donbas.
The article concludes with a proposal for a possible solution to war and peace on Donbas. Recommendations for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbas are based on Ukraine and the international community’s rejection of the “plot for settlement the internal conflict in Donbas” and recognition of the reality of a war in which the warring party and the aggressor are Russia, but not the phantom DNR/LNR. According to these recommendations, military force should become the main instrument for coercion of Russia for forcing peace and ending the war on acceptable terms for Ukraine. Ukrainian diplomacy must act under the task of war, but not only so much for the sake of “settlement internal conflict on the Donbas.”
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Lohachov, Mykhailo, and Nataliya Rybnikova. "A Cellular-Automaton Model for Population-Density and Urban-Extent Dynamics at the Regional Level: The Case of Ukrainian Provinces." Geographies 2, no. 2 (April 2, 2022): 186–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geographies2020013.
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The efficient modeling of population-density and urban-extent dynamics is a precondition for monitoring urban sprawl and managing the accompanying conflicts. Currently, one of the most promising approaches in this field is cellular automata—spatial models allowing one to anticipate the behavior of unit areas (e.g., evolution or degradation) in response to the influence of their neighborhood. In the present study, the possibility of modeling the population-density and urban-extent dynamics via a cellular automaton with density-specific parameters is tested. Using an adaptive genetic algorithm, three key model parameters (the evolution and degradation thresholds of a cell and its impact upon the neighbors) are optimized to ensure minimal deviation of the model predictions from actual population dynamics data for 24 Ukrainian provinces during three subsequent time windows from 2010–2019. The performance of the obtained optimized models is assessed in terms of the ability to (1) predict population-density classes and (2) discriminate between urban and rural areas. Generally, the obtained optimized models show high performance for both population-density and urban-extent dynamics (with the average Cohen’s Kappa reaching ~0.81 and ~0.91, respectively). Rare cases with poor prediction accuracy usually represent politically and economically unstable Eastern Ukrainian provinces involved in the military conflict since 2014. Statistical analysis of the obtained model parameters reveals significant differences (p < 0.001) in all of them among population-density classes, arguing for the plausibility of the selected density-specific model architecture. Upon exclusion of the above-mentioned Eastern Ukrainian provinces, all model coefficients appear rather stable (p > 0.135) through the three analyzed time windows, indicating the robustness of the model. The ability of the model to discriminate between urban and rural areas depends on the population density threshold. The best correspondence between actual and predicted urban areas emerges upon the 3000 persons/km2 population-density threshold. Further improvement of the model seems possible via extending its input beyond the population density data alone, e.g., by accounting for the existing infrastructure and/or natural boundaries—known factors stimulating or inhibiting urban sprawl.
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Hildum, David W., and Stephen F. Smith. "Scheduling safe movement of air traffic in crowded air spaces." Knowledge Engineering Review 27, no. 3 (July 26, 2012): 309–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0269888912000239.
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AbstractThis paper considers the problem of generating conflict-free movement schedules for a set of vehicles that are operating simultaneously in a common airspace. In both civilian air traffic management and military air campaign planning contexts, it is crucial that the movements of different vehicles be coordinated so as to avoid collisions and near misses. Our approach starts from a view of airspace management as a 4D resource allocation problem, where the space in which vehicles must maneuver is itself managed as a capacitated resource. We introduce a linear octree representation of airspace capacity to index vector-based vehicle routes and efficiently detect regions of potential conflict. Generalizing the notion of contention-based search heuristics, we next define a scheduling algorithm that proceeds by first solving a relaxed version of the problem to construct a spatial capacity profile (represented as an octree), and then using spatio-temporal regions where demand exceeds capacity to make conflict-avoiding vehicle routing and scheduling decisions. We illustrate the utility of this basic representation and search algorithm in two ways. First, to demonstrate the overall viability of the approach, we present experimental results using data representing a realistically sized air campaign planning domain. Second, we define a more abstract notion of ‘encounter set’, which tolerates some amount of conflict on the assumption that on-board deconfliction processes can take appropriate avoidance maneuvers at execution time, and show that generation of this more abstract form of predictive guidance can be obtained without loss in computational efficiency.
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Titarenko, O. О. "Criminological Scenarios of Crime Situation’s Transformation in the Context of Armed Conflict on Donbass in the Midterm." Law and Safety 74, no. 3 (September 20, 2019): 55–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.32631/pb.2019.3.08.
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The article is focused on the study of crime transformation in Ukraine, depending on the probable course of the armed conflict on Donbass and the construction of criminological scenarios on its basis of changing its status. It has been noted that the construction of predictive criminological scenarios for changing the crime situation for the relevant time perspective is perspective for their use in the development of strategic program documents for the implementation of the state policy in the field of combating crime. To achieve this goal, the author of the paper has used appropriate methodological tools, which include: dialectical and general scientific methods of cognition (analysis, synthesis), as well as scripted methodology (expert and matrix approaches). It has been noted that the scriptural forecasting methodology is currently underused in domestic criminological research. It is considered relevant to understand the development of possible criminological scenarios of crime situation in Ukraine in terms of both changes in the course of the situation in the East of Ukraine, and taking into account the development of related problems in different spheres of public life (social, economic, political, military). Based on the use of scenario methodology, the author has formed six criminological scenarios (realistic, optimistic, negative – pessimistic) of the transformation of crime situation in the midterm (2019-2022). The author has expertly substantiated the highest probability of developing a crime situation in the midterm in the following three scenarios: “Stagnation and slight increase” (most realistic), “Control and security” (optimistic), “Turbulent crime” (negative). It has been proved that the development of probable criminological scenarios will depend on the intensity of external and internal threats to national security. Taking into account the available prognostic research in the military and political sphere and the results of own expert poll, we support the position of domestic experts that solution of the conflict on Donbass will remain in the stagnant form (“no war, no peace”) in the nearest future, which is going to affect the possibility of developing the most realistic and optimistic criminological scenarios.
The author has substantiated the possibility of taking into account various criminological scenarios for the development (correction) of crime impact strategies by law enforcement agencies as well as for the formation of the relevant state programs.
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Henrickson, Phil. "Predicting the costs of war." Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology 17, no. 3 (March 6, 2019): 285–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1548512919826375.
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The expected cost of war is a foundational concept in the study of international conflict. However, the field currently lacks a measure of the expected costs of war, and thereby any measure of the bargaining range. In this paper, I develop a proxy for the expected costs of war by focusing on one aspect of war costs – battle deaths. I train a variety of machine learning algorithms on battle deaths for all countries participating in fatal military disputes and interstate wars between 1816 and 2007 in order to maximize out-of-sample predictive performance. The best performing model (random forest) improves performance over that of a null model by 25% and a linear model with all predictors by 9%. I apply the random forest to all interstate dyads in the Correlates of War dataverse from 1816 to 2007 in order to produce an estimate of the expected costs of war for all existing country pairs in the international system. The resulting measure, which I refer to as Dispute Casualty Expectations, can be used to fully explore the implications of the bargaining model of war, as well as allow applied researchers to develop and test new theories in the study of international relations.
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FORAN, HEATHER M. "THE MILITARY FAMILY: DYNAMICS, STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGES." CONTEMPORARY MILITARY CHALLENGES, VOLUME 22/2 (June 17, 2020): 121–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.33179/bsv.99.svi.11.cmc.22.2.re.
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Family relationships remain one of the most valuable and meaningful human experiences, within and outside of the military, and when loss or conflict occurs, this has profound effects on individuals and society. Furthermore, family support can influence occupational outcomes such as recruitment, retention, and military readiness. Family loyalty to the armed services can be transmitted intergenerationally and can influence public support for the military as an institution. The interplay between the family, the military, and broader society are considered throughout this special issue. This special edition on military families in Contemporary Military Challenges provides informative sociological perspectives on “military families” both in Slovenia and internationally. Each article tackles unique and significant issues related to military families and society. The lens of the socio-ecological model for risk and protective factor research, in combination with an implementation science approach and attention to contextual factors, is what is needed to move forward in supporting military families. Taken together, the articles in this special issue highlight the complexity and importance of military families and the related policy implications. In the field of family science, not enough attention has been given to the implementation of science research. To do this, one needs to consider both current and past policies and how they have affected families at different socio-ecological levels. As a basis for considering policies and research agendas, the historical context of the family and its relationship with the military in Slovenia and internationally is a good start (see article by Jelusic, Jeznic, & Juvan 2020). Research on military families in Slovenian Armed Forces is a relatively young field and of increasing importance given the changes in the last three decades, after becoming an all-voluntary force and the professionalization of the military. The authors detail the organizational and policy changes in Slovenia that have developed concurrently with military family research internationally and at home. The relevance of military families is now more widely recognized, yet barriers to the successful implementation of support programmes remain. The articles by Hess 2020, Jakopic 2020, and Kasearu et al. 2020 provide several examples of support programmes that can strengthen military families and bolster military family readiness. To achieve the best outcomes, the focus needs to not only be on the treatment of problems, but also on the primary prevention of risk factors and promotion of resilient families (e.g. through fostering high-quality intimate relationships). Promoting resilient families requires the provision of support at multiple levels of operation including psychological support, social care, legal counselling, and spiritual care. In addition to contextual perspectives and policy review, another fundamental part of military family research is identifying the risk and protective factors for socio-ecological outcomes through empirical research. Vuga 2020 provides an action plan for current research to identify factors at different socio-ecological levels that affect family behavioural health outcomes. The risk and protective factors which are most associated with outcomes in the Slovenian military context can be targeted in future programmes and policies. This public health based approach has been applied in other countries to inform military leaders about the needs of their armed forces. In our own work with the US military, we employed risk and protective factor models to identify unique modifiable factors in predicting behavioural and family health outcomes, which could be targeted in interventions at the individual, family, professional and community levels. Vuga and her colleagues’ expansion of the socio-ecological research model will be useful for the Slovenian Armed Forces and the results could be informative for other military organizations. Intervention derived from the risk and protective factor models from the MilFam project can then be tested in subsequent studies to ensure effective implementation and change in behavioural health outcomes. The MilFam project will serve as an important step in addressing the needs of military families in Slovenia. Several other relevant considerations for military sociological research are raised in the other articles, including cross-country differences, deployment challenges, and demographic changes impacting the concept of “military families”. The article by Kasearu et al. (2020) compares the concept of military families across three different countries. Whether families are seen as part of the military or separate, as is the case for some other professions, depends on how military service is defined in different countries. In some contexts, emphasis has been placed on policies for service members, and civilian family members are not considered. Although similar policies are common in many professions, there are certainly reasons unique to the military that suggest inclusive policies and programmes for civilian family members not only benefit military families but can also improve military preparedness. In the case of deployment, when policies are in place that do not support the significant other/spouse and children left behind it can lead to psychological distress, financial burdens, and impairment of family functioning. In the digital age, deployed service members are often well-informed about the problems at home and may become frustrated by the lack of policies in place to support military family members while they are deployed. Besides the challenges faced by separations, military families also face unique challenges related to being stationed abroad with their families. The importance of the infrastructure and network to provide informal and formal support for family members as they navigate a new environment is critical in these situations. This includes both tangible and emotional support for family members as they adjust to living in a foreign country. Housing, medical care, schooling, language, and job options for family members are some of the concerns facing families while abroad. Depending on the size of the military infrastructure abroad, these concerns may be supported internally through the military. However, in many cases, sufficient internal support infrastructures may not be available and agreements with host countries can fill some of these gaps. An added complexity is raised in the article by Švab (as well as in Jelušič et al. and Kasearu et al.), in that challenges facing military families not only depends on the military infrastructure and policies, but also on the family structure and dynamics. Jelušič et al. point out how the typical family of service members has evolved over time. Švab describes the dynamics of family structure across Slovenia and their interplay with military organizational needs. Family structure has changed significantly over the past few decades and this poses new challenges for military families. The changing family structures introduce diverse risks factors and areas to target with support programmes. The division of labour and family roles continues to evolve in Slovenia and internationally. There is a growing body of research that documents the relevance of gender and work division in the military context. Support for women service members with children varies from that of their male counterparts, and may require more targeted support programmes. In meeting the needs of diverse military family practices, attention to both formal and informal support networks in research and policy is necessary. Throughout this special issue, specific examples of programmes already offered to support military families are mentioned. It is important, however, that programmes are not just implemented, but that effective programmes are implemented with a sound base of empirical support for their implementation. One example of this is the PREP programme (Preparation and Relationship Enhancement/Education Programme), which is offered in several countries to support intimate partnerships among military couples. This programme has evidence to support its effectiveness in reducing relationship distress over time across numerous studies. This special issue makes it clear how important the military family is to effective professional functioning. Despite the clear importance of military families, they are often not supported sufficiently in various ways (e.g. through policies or evidence-based prevention offers). This not only influences professional outcomes such as job satisfaction, retention, days of missed work, and satisfaction with leadership, it also places families at risk of hardship and psychological distress. This in turn can cycle back into worse professional outcomes. Divorce/separations and living alone (i.e. social isolation) are associated with risks of depression and suicide, along with negative professional outcomes. Support programmes need to address changes in family structure that may be particularly stressful, as well as negative stressors that arise within family structures (e.g. family conflict and violence), which also, in turn, impact professional outcomes. This special issue draws attention to this cycle and will serve as a useful reference to generate further research studies and policies that will benefit the military and its families.
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Hegre, Håvard, Michael Bernhard, and Jan Teorell. "Civil Society and the Democratic Peace." Journal of Conflict Resolution 64, no. 1 (May 30, 2019): 32–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002719850620.
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We theorize that three distinct structures of democratic constraint explain why more democratic dyads do not engage in military conflict with each other. We build on earlier theories that focused on electoral and horizontal accountability. We add a new dimension—the social accountability provided by an active civil society. Using several new measures from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data set, we stringently test these explanations. We find social accountability to be the strongest and most consistent predictor of nonbelligerence in dyads, that horizontal accountability is still important, but that the independent role of electoral accountability has been somewhat overstated. However, we do find that social and electoral accountability work strongly together, to make for an even greater effect. The finding is robust to a range of specifications and in the face of controls for contending theories that challenge the democratic peace (e.g., the capitalist and territorial peace theories).
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Stoner, David C., Mark A. Ditmer, Dustin L. Mitchell, Julie K. Young, and Michael L. Wolfe. "Conflict, coexistence, or both? Cougar habitat selection, prey composition, and mortality in a multiple-use landscape." California Fish and Wildlife Journal 107, no. 3 (November 2, 2021): 147–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.51492/cfwj.hwisi.2.
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Western North America is experiencing remarkable human population growth and land-use change. Irrigation and associated cultivation have led to colonization of urban-wildland interface (UWI) environments by mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and consequently, cougars (Puma concolor). In the wake of these changes, human-wildlife conflicts have increased in tandem with questions about long-term species conservation. To address these concerns, we fit 79 cougars with radio-telemetry collars in the Oquirrh Mountains near Salt Lake City, Utah (2002–2010). Our goal was to evaluate variation in cougar habitat selection, diet, and cause-specific mortality in a landscape dominated by urban, military, and industrial activities. We used radio-telemetry data in concert with Resource Selection Functions to address three hypotheses: (1) that cougars would select wildland over UWI land-uses; (2) prey composition would reflect differences in land-use; and (3) mortality would be predominantly human-caused. Cougars largely selected wildland habitats associated with seasonal mule deer presence, but contrary to expectation, they also selected habitats closer to urban and mined areas. Prey composition in the UWI did not differ from wildland habitats. Domestic ungulates represented only 2% of 540 recovered prey items and were found primarily in wildlands. Native ungulates comprised > 90% of the total kill, irrespective of season or land-use, suggesting that use of UWI habitats was linked to mule deer presence. Cougar mortality was disproportionately due to natural causes in wildlands, but individuals that died of human causes in UWI habitats were more likely to be inexperienced hunters, supporting young kittens, or compromised by physical handicaps. In general, presence of mule deer was the key predictor of cougar habitat use, even in this highly disturbed, anthropogenically altered landscape. As such, management designed to reduce conflict and ensure conservation will need to focus on urban deer, land-use planning, and targeted education campaigns to reduce food subsidies.
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Curry, John. "Professional Wargaming: A Flawed but Useful Tool." Simulation & Gaming 51, no. 5 (April 17, 2020): 612–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1046878120901852.
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Rationale for the Article. Professional wargames have long been an integral part of the tool set used by the military. The literature includes many examples of wargames that have been successful in terms of training, military education, procurement, operational analysis and planning for war. However, retrospective examination demonstrates that many of these professional wargames also had major errors in them and by implication current games about future confrontations are similarly flawed. Nevertheless, the academic evidence is clear that such games are still invaluable tools. Methodology. Ten years of research into the development of wargames undertaken by the History of Wargaming Project has analysed and made generally available more professional wargames than ever before. Retrospective examination of a sample of these declassified games, from the British War Office Rules (1896) to more recent games about the Ukraine, shows significant errors. Value. Demonstrating that professional games had errors in the past opens challenges the overconfidence in the predictive capacity of games. It also raises the possibility for future research to identify game design bias and to develop better games in the future. Understanding the value of better games, even with their inherent issues, raise the possibility of better preparing decision makers for the future. Notes. The words wargame and game are used interchangeably in this article. Whilst the techniques used in professional gaming evolved from modelling the battlefield, modern professional gaming is increasingly focussed on other situations that are not war, such as state level confrontations, trade wars, politics, cyber conflict, banking crisis etc. Using the term wargame seems inappropriate when for example, gaming a shipping dispute. All the games referred to this article, unless otherwise noted, are professional wargames, used by military, government, public sector bodies and other parties directly involved in real world issues. The prefix professional has been omitted for brevity in most places.
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Asmolov, Konstantin. "Problems and Prospects for the DPRK’s Development: Forecasting Model-2021." Problemy dalnego vostoka, no. 4 (2021): 134. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/s013128120016161-8.
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Since the 1990s, there have been many publications predicting an imminent "collapse of the North Korean regime" or a shift of the country’s political vector. However, this has not happened so far, and the DPRK’s political regime continues to exist. What leads to such chronically unrealistic forecasts for North Korea, and what are alternative options for the future of this country in the short and medium term? Revising a number of unfulfilled predictions, the authors try to explain the reason for these failures. They are usually closely related to an ideological framework, lack of information and dependence on certain sources, which leads to an underestimation of the DPRK's capabilities and misinterpretation of data, when any event is seen as a sign of the regime’s imminent collapse. Using the theoretical approaches of G. Tallok and V.I. Lenin, the article identifies the main types of threats to the current political regime (external invasion, a coup within the elite, economic collapse, mass protests), as well as the likelihood of their implementation under the current policies of the DPRK leadership. The authors describe several development scenarios based on an analysis of factors that can affect the situation in North Korea in the short and medium term. Maintaining the status quo stands out in the first place in terms of probability. Less likely scenarios include “sinofication” due to Beijing's growing influence on Pyongyang, military escalation leading to an armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula, political and economic crisis.
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Weinreb, Alice. "“For the Hungry Have No Past nor Do They Belong to a Political Party”: Debates over German Hunger after World War II." Central European History 45, no. 1 (March 2012): 50–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008938911000987.
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When World War II finally came to an end, the Allied forces were primed to face a world of hunger. Since the earliest days of the conflict, experts throughout Europe and Asia had been predicting that the unfathomable scale of the war would result in a massive and permanent restructuring of the global food economy. Military victory itself was cast as inextricably intertwined with control over foodstuffs. In 1940, the British nutritionist and future Director-General of the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization, Sir John Boyd-Orr, had warned that “we are only at the beginning of what looks like a long grim struggle, in which food may be, as it was in the last war, the decisive factor for victory.” Even more ominously, such experts foresaw the end of the war as ushering in a world defined less by peace and more by hunger. Australian economist and humanitarian Frank Lidgett McDougall axiomatically declared that “the exigencies of war and of the relief period will in the next few years render almost all men everywhere in the world highly food-conscious.” The recognition of the global ramifications of hunger meant that, as Nick Cullather put it in his recent article on the history of the calorie, “the construction of a postwar international order began with food.”
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Turk-Sekulic, Maja, Jelena Radonic, Mirjana Vojinovic-Miloradov, Nevena Senk, and Marija Okuka. "Assessment of atmospheric distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons using polyparameter model." Chemical Industry 65, no. 4 (2011): 371–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/hemind101013046t.
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Results of partial or total destruction of industrial plants, military targets, infrastructure, uncontrolled fires and explosions during the conflict period from 1991 to 1999, at the area of Western Balkans, were large amounts of hazardous organic matter that have been generated and emitted in the environment. In order to assess gas/particle partition of seven EPA polychlorinated biphenyls and sixteen EPA polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, twenty air samples have been collected at six urban, industrial and highly contaminated localities in Vojvodina. Hi-Vol methodology has been used for collecting ambiental air samples, that simultaneously collects gaseous and particulate phase with polyurethane foam filters (PUF) and glass fiber filters (GFF). PUF and GFF filters have been analyzed, and concentration levels of gaseous PCBs and PAHs molecules in gaseous and particulate phase were obtained, converted and expressed through fraction of individual compounds sorbed onto particulate phase of the sample, in total detected quantity. Experimentally gained gas/particle partitioning values of PCBs and PAHs molecules have been compared with PP-LFER model estimated values. Significant deviation has been noticed during comparative analysis of estimated polyparameter model values for complete set of seven PCBs congeners. Much better agreement of experimental and estimated values is for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, especially for molecules with four rings. These results are in a good correlation with literature data where polyparameter model has been used for predicting gas/particle partition of studied group of organic molecules.
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Shernock, Stan. "Conflict and compatibility." Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 39, no. 4 (November 21, 2016): 740–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/pijpsm-11-2015-0131.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare and analyze perspectives of law enforcement officers with combat deployment experience, other military background, and no military service regarding the meaning, relevance, and consequences of the military model of policing. Design/methodology/approach Data were obtained from an online survey of police officers throughout a rural Northern New England state. A t-test compared the difference of means on 25 items measured as military attributes and as relevant to policing and an ANCOVA analysis examined the relationship between military service status and the meaning, relevance, and consequences of the military model. Findings Officers gave statistically lower ratings to the relevancy than they did to the military character of most of 25 stipulated attributes of the military model, particularly the use of force, but indicated that the military model had positive consequences on both police personnel and the community. There were few differences between officers of different military background regarding the meaning, relevance, and consequences of the military model. However, significantly different ratings given to empowerment of those at lowest levels, to the relevancy of military leadership, and to the effects of military organization and style on the ability to deal with stress were largely attributable to those with combat deployment experience. Originality/value This is the only study to use more accurate measures of the relevance of the military model and to empirically examine how police officers themselves, particularly with different military service background, evaluate constituent aspects of the military model.
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Джейранов, С. Н. "Church and State in Central Russia during the Era of Collectivism." Вестник Рязанского государственного университета имени С.А. Есенина, no. 3(72) (October 18, 2021): 16–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.37724/rsu.2021.72.3.002.
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Статья освещает взаимоотношения Советского государства и Русской право-славной церкви в конце 1920-х — начале 1930-х годов в период коллективизации деревни, которая сопровождалась разрушением традиционного мира, драматической ломкой привычного уклада жизни. В центре внимания — политика наступления на православную идеологию и духовенство, выражавшаяся в закрытии храмов и монастырей, воинствующем атеизме, мерах репрессивного воздействия по отношению к священникам. Территориальные рамки исследования охватывают Центрально-Промышленную (переименованную через несколько месяцев в Московскую) область — мегарегион в 1929–1937 годах, включавший в тот период несколько бывших губерний Центральной России. На материалах Рязанского, Тверского и Тульского округов анализируются протестное движение крестьян против антирелигиозной политики власти, активные и пассивные формы сопротивления. Активные формы крестьянского сопротивления были направлены на защиту храмов от разрушения, духовенства от арестов, а также против запретов на богослужебную деятельность. Кроме того, верующие оказывали сопротивление антипасхальным вечерам и иным провокационным пропагандистским акциям, организуемым Союзом воинствующих безбожников. Основной действующей силой данного протеста были женщины, что предопределило название акций как «бабьи бунты». Пассивные формы протеста выражались в распространении информации о чудесах и знамениях, апокалиптических слухов о скорой войне, гибели советской власти в военном конфликте, грядущем конце света в наказание за вступление в «безбожный» колхоз. Сопротивление дало возможность сохранить храмы как очаги религиозности, сберечь и передать поколениям веру и традиции православной жизни. The article treats the relationship between the Soviet State and the Russian Orthodox Church in the late 1920s — early 1930s, during the era of collectivism, which brought about the destruction of the traditional world and dramatically changed the traditional lifestyle. The article focusesaggressive on the policy of oppressing the Orthodox ideology and the clergy, which manifested itself though atheism, the dissolution of churches and monasteries, religious persecution. The research focuses on the situation in the Moscow region (the then Central Industrial region), which encompassed several former provinces in 1929-1937. The author analyzes the materials relating to the Ryazan District, the Tula District and the Tver District and investigates the data about peasants’ passive and active resistance to the antireligious governmental policies. The active forms of peasants’ resistance were aimed at the protection of churches and cathedrals against destruction, at helping priests avoid arrests, at protesting against bans on religious services. Moreover, believers protested against anti-Easter campaigns and other propaganda campaigns organized by the Union of Aggressive Atheists. Women were the driving force of the protests. As a passive form of protesting against religious oppression believers spread information about miracles and portents, apocalyptic predictions of ongoing wars and the destruction of the Soviet government n a military conflict, apocalyptic prediction of punishment for joining the impious kolkhozes. Due to believers’ resistance to anti-religious campaigns it was possible to protect churches and cathedrals as the hearth of religious belief and to pass the traditions of Orthodox Christianity to other generations.
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Hwang, Sung-Ha. "Technology of military conflict, military spending, and war." Journal of Public Economics 96, no. 1-2 (February 2012): 226–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2011.09.003.
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Pastor Álvarez, Alberto, Fernando Molero Alonso, and Juan Antonio Moriano León. "Validation of the Morale Questionnaire for Military Operational Theaters [Validación del cuestionario de moral para zonas de Operaciones Militares]." Acción Psicológica 16, no. 2 (February 24, 2020): 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5944/ap.16.2.24265.
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AbstractTo assess the morale of the troops has been a concern of military leaders throughout history, mainly because of the level of involvement that this factor could have in the resolution of conflicts on the battlefield. The purpose of this research was to obtain evidence of the validity of the internal structure of the Morale Questionnaire used by the Spanish Armed Forces in military operations overseas. Two subsamples of 250 Spanish soldiers deployed on an international mission in Lebanon participated in the study. The questionnaire was applied at the beginning and at the end of the mission, respectly. The results obtained throughExploratory and Confirmatory Factorial Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling, allowed to assess the questionnaire statistically obtaining a tool that consists of 26 items, agglutinated in six factors. The theoretical dimensions of the original tool were mostly maintained. This will permit Spanish Armed Forces to have a reliable measuring instrument that will facilitate specific predictions about morale and its consecuences on the battlefield.ResumenEvaluar la moral de las tropas ha sido una preocupación de los líderes militares a lo largo de la historia, principalmente por el nivel de participación que este factor podría tener en la resolución de conflictos en el campo de batalla. El objetivo de esta investigación fue obtener evidencias sobre la validez de la estructura interna del cuestionario de moral utilizado por las Fuerzas Armadas Españolas en operaciones militares en el exterior. Dos submuestras de 250 soldados españoles desplegados en una misión internacional en Líbano participaron en el estudio. El cuestionario se aplicó al principio y al final de la misión. Los resultados obtenidos a través del Análisis factorial exploratorio y confirmatorio, así como el Modelo de ecuaciones estructurales, permitieron validar el cuestionario obteniendo estadísticamente una herramienta que consta de 26 ítems, aglutinados en seis factores. Las dimensiones teóricas de la herramienta original se mantuvieron en su mayoría. Esto permitirá a las Fuerzas Armadas españolas tener un instrumento de medición confiable que facilitará predicciones específicas sobre la moral y sus consecuencias en el campo de batalla.
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Tunthanathip, Thara, Kanutpon Khocharoen, and Nakornchai Phuenpathom. "Blast-induced traumatic brain injury: the experience from a level I trauma center in southern Thailand." Neurosurgical Focus 45, no. 6 (December 2018): E7. http://dx.doi.org/10.3171/2018.8.focus18311.
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OBJECTIVEIn the ongoing conflict in southern Thailand, the improvised explosive device (IED) has been a common cause of blast-induced traumatic brain injury (bTBI). The authors investigated the particular characteristics of bTBI and the factors associated with its clinical outcome.METHODSA retrospective cohort study was conducted on all patients who had sustained bTBI between 2009 and 2017. Collected data included clinical characteristics, intracranial injuries, and outcomes. Factors analysis was conducted using a forest plot.RESULTSDuring the study period, 70 patients met the inclusion criteria. Fifty individuals (71.4%) were military personnel. One-third of the patients (32.9%) suffered moderate to severe bTBI, and the rate of intracerebral injuries on brain CT was 65.7%. Coup contusion was the most common finding, and primary blast injury was the most common mechanism of blast injury. Seventeen individuals had an unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale score 1–3), and the overall mortality rate for bTBI was 11.4%. In the univariate analysis, factors associated with an unfavorable outcome were preoperative coagulopathy, midline shift of the brain ≥ 5 mm, basal cistern effacement, moderate to severe TBI, hypotension, fixed and dilated pupils, surgical site infection, hematocrit < 30% on admission, coup contusion, and subdural hematoma. In the multivariable analysis, midline shift ≥ 5 mm (OR 29.1, 95% CI 2.5–328.1) and coagulopathy (OR 28.7, 95% CI 4.5–180.3) were the only factors predicting a poor outcome of bTBI.CONCLUSIONSbTBIs range from mild to severe. Midline shift and coagulopathy are treatable factors associated with an unfavorable outcome. Hence, in cases of bTBI, reversing an abnormal coagulogram is required as soon as possible to improve clinical outcomes. The management of brain shift needs further study.
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Brooks, Rosa. "War, Conflict and the Military." Survival 61, no. 1 (January 2, 2019): 205–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2019.1568058.
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Brooks, Rosa. "War, Conflict and the Military." Survival 62, no. 1 (January 2, 2020): 204–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2020.1715086.
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Willcocks, M. A. "Future conflict and military doctrine." RUSI Journal 139, no. 3 (June 1994): 6–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03071849408445814.
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Gennaioli, Nicola, and Hans-Joachim Voth. "State Capacity and Military Conflict." Review of Economic Studies 82, no. 4 (May 29, 2015): 1409–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdv019.
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Brekke, Torkel. "Religion, Conflict and Military Intervention." Numen 58, no. 4 (2011): 577–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/156852711x577096.
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Horowitz, Michael C., and Matthew Fuhrmann. "Studying Leaders and Military Conflict." Journal of Conflict Resolution 62, no. 10 (October 21, 2018): 2072–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002718785679.
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Seiglie, Carlos. "International Conflict and Military Expenditures." Journal of Conflict Resolution 32, no. 1 (March 1988): 141–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002788032001007.
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Brown, Katherine E. "Religion, Conflict and Military Intervention." Defence Studies 11, no. 2 (June 2011): 350–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2011.580168.
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Cesari, Jocelyne. "Religion, Conflict, and Military Intervention." Religion, State and Society 39, no. 1 (March 2011): 130–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09637494.2011.546511.
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Brooks, Rosa. "War, Conflict and the Military." Survival 63, no. 1 (January 2, 2021): 189–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2021.1881261.
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Lamal, Nina. "Communicating Conflict." Journal of Medieval and Early Modern Studies 50, no. 1 (January 1, 2020): 13–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/10829636-7986565.
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Young Italian men joined the Habsburg army in the Low Countries to gain military experience. In pursuit of social advancement, many of these soldiers sought to maintain ties and contacts with their hometowns. Letters were the principal medium for soldiers to establish such a long-distance communication, providing the latest news from the front. This article provides the first examination of letter-writing soldiers as purveyors of news from the battlefield to the governing elites in Italian states during the late sixteenth century. It examines how soldiers of different ranks and social backgrounds used letters to construct a reputation as trustworthy correspondents and as military experts. By providing event-based and up-to-date military and political information on the conflict in which they were actively deployed, soldiers played a crucial role in the circulation of information and shaped the reception at the Italian courts of the unfolding events in the Low Countries.
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White, Peter. "Generals in the Cabinet: Military Participation in Government and International Conflict Initiation." International Studies Quarterly 65, no. 2 (February 18, 2021): 551–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab012.
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Abstract How does the presence of military officers in national government affect a state's likelihood of international conflict? We know a great deal about how overall regime type affects international conflict, but there is substantial variation within regime types in the participation of military officers in the government. We know little about how this variation affects a state's conflict propensity. In this Research Note, I examine three competing arguments for the effect of military participation in government on conflict initiation: Military Aggression, Military Conservatism, and Civil–Military Competition. Military Aggression suggests that military involvement in government will tend to guide the state toward conflict, given a military predisposition to favor the use of force. In contrast, Military Conservatism argues that military officers in government will lead the state to less conflict, given their personal familiarity with its costs. Civil–Military Competition holds that when military officers and civilians share political power, a variety of pathologies in national security deliberation and decision-making emerge, increasing conflict propensity. I test these three propositions cross-nationally using data on the number and type of positions held by military officers in cabinets and state councils and international conflict and find the strongest support for Civil–Military Competition.
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Dunne, John Paul. "Military Spending, Growth, Development And Conflict." Defence and Peace Economics 23, no. 6 (December 2012): 549–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2012.663576.
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Griffin, William A., and Allison R. Morgan. "Conflict in maritally distressed military couples." American Journal of Family Therapy 16, no. 1 (March 1988): 14–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01926188808250703.
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Smith, Ron P. "The economic costs of military conflict." Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 2 (September 6, 2013): 245–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343313496595.
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Peen Rodt, Annemarie. "Successful Conflict Management by Military Means." Ethnopolitics 11, no. 4 (November 2012): 376–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17449057.2012.697651.
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