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1
Сопілков, Максим Романович. "Система прогнозування виникнення збройних конфліктів за допомогою ймовірнісно-статистичних методів". Master's thesis, Київ, 2018. https://ela.kpi.ua/handle/123456789/23902.
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Магістерська дисертація: 111 с., 19 рис., 30 табл., 2 додатки, 27 джерел.
Об’єкт дослідження – прогнозування сучасних військових конфліктів за допомогою імовірнісно-статистичних методів.
Мета роботи – розробка та дослідження інтелектуальної системи прогнозування потенціального виникнення військового конфлікту у країнах світу , що дає можливість підготуватися до такої ситуації і, в деяких випадках, попередити її.
В роботі розглянуто і проаналізовано прогнозування виникнення сучасних військових (збройних) конфліктів, проаналізовані методи та алгоритми побудови байєсівських та нейронних мереж, їх використання у різноманітних галузях військового моделювання. Розроблено систему побудови прогнозу виникнення військового конфлікту у країні на основі використання методів побудови байєсівських та нейронних мереж.
Система побудови пронозу реалізована за допомогою мови програмування Java (Spring), JavaScript (Angular 2). Точність та правильність роботи системи показують результати наявної політичної ситуації у світі, які ми можемо з вами спостерігати за допомогою засобів масової інформації (ЗМІ).
Результати даної роботи рекомендується використовувати для передбачення виникнення військових збройних конфліктів, що допоможе попередити виникнення даного, або ж по можливості зменшити ризик його виникнення.<br>Theme: “System of forecasting the emergence of armed conflicts via probability statistical methods”.
Master’s thesis: 111 p., 19 fig., 30 tab., 2 appendices, 27 sources.
The object of study - the prediction of modern military conflicts through bayesian and neural networks. The purpose of the work - research and development of intelligent system of forecasting the potential occurrence of military conflict in the world, which makes it possible to prepare for such situation and, in some cases, prevent it.
In this work was reviewed and analyzed next problems: predicting the emergence of modern military (armed) conflict, was analyzed the methods and algorithms of bayesian and neural networks, their use in various fields of military simulation.
Also was developed the system of forecasting the emergence of armed conflict in the country using constructing bayesian and neural networks methods.
The forecasting system was implemented by using programming languages Java (Spring) and JavaScript (Angular 2).
Precision and accuracy of the system shows the results of the political situation in the world which we can observe through the mass media (MSM)
The results of this study are recommended for predicting the emergence of armed military conflict that will help prevent them, or as much as possible to reduce the risk of their occurrence.
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Campbell, Benjamin W. "Supervised and Unsupervised Machine Learning Strategies for Modeling Military Alliances." The Ohio State University, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1558024695617708.
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Alptekin, Aynur. "Military expenditure, institutions and conflict." Thesis, University of Surrey, 2008. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/904/.
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The aim of the thesis is to examine and estimate the effects of military expenditure, institutions and conflict on economic development. The military expenditure and economic growth nexus is re-analysed in the context of threat and security dimensions. In particular the proposed empirical model is a non-linear one that is characterised by the external and internal threat levels. The findings are that when the internal and external threat levels are below threshold values, a rise in military expenditure results in a fall in growth. Conversely, when the external and internal threat levels are higher than threshold values, a rise in military expenditure results in a rise in growth.
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Cicek, Edvin. "Framing the public opinion on military conflict." Thesis, Försvarshögskolan, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10140.
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In many cases, an effective method used by political elites to influence public opinion is throughframing strategies. The use of frames by political elites has the power to change the opinion of agreat mass of people. On October 9, 2019, Turkey launched the military operation Peace Spring.Despite being criticized internationally, the Turkish president managed through framing of theoperation, gaining public approval in its domestic sphere. The purpose of this article is to analysehow president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan frames Operation Peace Spring through Twitter as primarysource. The results show that Erdoğan uses a complex framing that contains several recurringsegments that build on each other and enhances the overall effect.
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Rodt, Annemarie Peen. "Success? : ESDP military conflict management operations : 2003-2009." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2009. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/11431/.
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From 2003 to 2009, the EU launched five military conflict management operations within the framework of the European Security and Defence Policy. This thesis examines their success. To this end, the thesis develops a definition and a set of criteria for success. It applies this theoretical framework in an empirical case study of success in the five EU operations, which were undertaken in Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad and the Central African Republic. Having established the level and nature of their success, the thesis goes on to examine the conditions under which ESDP military conflict management operations can be successful. The key finding of the research is that for an operation of this nature to succeed, it is necessary that it secures sufficient support internally, within the EU, and externally, outside the EU, from domestic, regional and international actors involved in the conflict and its management.
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Herath, Ihalagedera Herath Mudiyanselage Nishantha Nandaji. "Role of Military in Post-Conflict Sri Lanka." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/6812.
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Sri Lanka has suffered a violent conflict between the government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) for nearly three decades. By the time LTTE was crushed in 2009, over 80,000 had been killed, 11,656 Tamil Tigers were either arrested or surrendered, and 294,000 people had been internally displaced during the final phase of the conflict. Furthermore, almost all the infrastructure in formerly terrorist-held areas was damaged or destroyed. The GoSL recognized its obligation to provide humanitarian relief; essential services, rehabilitation, and development support to people in LTTE-controlled areas and began post-conflict reconstruction. The GoSL decision to house internally displaced persons (IDPs) prevented much-needed, international-community support during the initial stage of reconstruction. The drain of GoSL resources due to the prolonged conflict and reconstruction in the Eastern Province forced GoSL to use the military to fill gaps in the post-conflict reconstruction process. By doing so, the GOSL was able to resettle 97% of the total IDPs, providing them infrastructure facilities and livelihood opportunities, while reintegrating more than 90% of ex-combatants after their rehabilitation by the end of 2011. This study will examine the way in which the military used its capabilities to shape the reconstruction process.
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Tian, Nan. "The economics of military spending, conflict and growth." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16720.
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Includes bibliographical references<br>This dissertation is a collection of studies on the economics of peace and security. Chapter one introduces the roles military spending and conic play in affecting economic growth, while also considering the causes of civil conflict. Chapter two investigates the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth, considering group heterogeneity and non-linearity. Using an exogenous growth model and dynamic panel approach, the results suggest military burden to have a negative effect on growth. Breaking the overall panel down into various sub-samples shows estimates that are remark-ably consistent with the full panel. These results provide strong support for the argument that military spending has an adverse effect on growth. There are, however, some intriguing results suggesting that for certain types of countries military burden has no negative growth effect. Chapter three deals with the transnational spatial spillover effects of conflict on neighbouring countries. It moves beyond using geographical dis-tance as a spillover measurement and allows for economic and political distances. The initial empirical results suggest that conflict has a strong negative spillover effect on directly contiguous countries growth, but no significant impacts were observed for non-contiguous countries. When economic and political factors are considered, this result remains, but the spillover effect is smaller. While the impact of conflict remains devastating, it is important to take other factors into account as studies using only geographical distance may be overestimating the impact on neighbours. The fourth chapter examines the determinants of civil war, using a zero-inflated modelling approach to deal with excess zeroes in the dependent variable. Traditional probit and logit models have limited capacity in dealing with this issue and can create misleading results, which is illustrated through replicating published work. A general greed-grievance model is then estimated giving further support to using zero-inflated models. While the standard probit models tend to emphasise opportunity variables, consistent in other studies, the zero inflated model gives supports both opportunity and grievance variables. In particular, ethnicity, democracy and inequality are found to play a significant role in civil war prevalence. Finally, chapter five summarises the findings of the dissertation, providing some policy recommendations, concluding remarks and discusses future research opportunities.
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Šetina, Martin. "Risk Analysis of Sino-American Military Conflict: The Trends in China-US Military Relationship." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-193920.
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The ascent of China to a global power status has created a new wave of theoretical discourse on what this means for the future of international relations. The general consensus on a unipolar order of international relations is slowly giving way to discourse. The time of polarity shift in the system is associated with a likely conflict between the descending hegemon and the ascending power (Snyder 2002; Mearsheimer 2010). This theoretical background suggest that in the future, we might witness a military conflict between the US and China. On the other side of the spectrum is a more optimistic view of China's rise, which emphasizes the role of economic interdependence and the extreme cost of any aggressive foreign policy that would escalate the conflict potential between China and the US (Ikenberry 2008; Kang 2007; Fravel 2010). This assumption of a future military conflict between the US and China is at the center of this research. In the following pages I will explore the idea of a military conflict between the US and China in an in-depth analysis of the most contested and conflict-prone issues between China and the US: the future of Taiwan and the Senkaku Island dispute.
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Erturk, Sait. "Reintegration of the Iraqi military in post-conflict era." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2005. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/05Mar%5FErturk.pdf.
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Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2005.<br>Thesis Advisor(s): Vali Nasr, Karen Guttieri. Includes bibliographical references (p. 125-134) Also available online.
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Viktorin, Mattias. "Exercising Peace : Conflict Preventionism, Neoliberalism, and the New Military." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Socialantropologiska institutionen, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-8141.
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This study takes the changing role of the military as a starting point for exploring a set of broader ongoing processes at the intersection of security and humanitarianism. The focus is on one particular assemblage, described here as conflict preventionism. This notion brings together the transformation of the military, the proliferation of civil-military cooperation, and the increasing interest in managing and preventing violent conflicts within a single framework. As such, conflict preventionism helps render visible how various actors, concepts, and organizational techniques converge in emergent forms of intervention. The research was carried out during the planning, execution, and evaluation of Viking 03, a civil-military exercise organized in 2003 by the Swedish Armed Forces. An examination of Viking 03 evinces intriguing resemblances between conflict preventionism and organizational facets of neoliberalism, epitomized by increasingly ubiquitous concepts such as “partnership,” “transparency,” and “evaluation.” Also, it shows that conflict preventionism does not settle on one particular understanding of conflict, but rather imposes directionality on contemporary engagements with the world.
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Helle, Valeria, Andra-Stefania Negus, and Jakob Nyberg. "Improving armed conflict prediction using machine learning : ViEWS+." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för informationsteknologi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-354845.
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Our project, ViEWS+, expands the software functionality of the Violence EarlyWarning System (ViEWS). ViEWS aims to predict the probabilities of armed conflicts in the next 36 months using machine learning. Governments and policy-makers may use conflict predictions to decide where to deliver aid and resources, potentially saving lives. The predictions use conflict data gathered by ViEWS, which includes variables like past conflicts, child mortality and urban density. The large number of variables raises the need for a selection tool to remove those that are irrelevant for conflict prediction. Before our work, the stakeholders used their experience and some guesswork to pick the variables, and the predictive function with its parameters. Our goals were to improve the efficiency, in terms of speed, and correctness of the ViEWS predictions. Three steps were taken. Firstly, we made an automatic variable selection tool. This helps researchers use fewer, more relevant variables, to save time and resources. Secondly, we compared prediction functions, and identified the best for the purpose of predicting conflict. Lastly, we tested how parameter values affect the performance of the chosen functions, so as to produce good predictions but also reduce the execution time. The new tools improved both the execution time and the predictive correctness of the system compared to the results obtained prior to our project. It is now nine times faster than before, and its correctness has improved by a factor of three. We believe our work leads to more accurate conflict predictions, and as ViEWS has strong connections to the European Union, we hope that decision makers can benefit from it when trying to prevent conflicts.<br>I detta projekt, vilket vi valt att benämna ViEWS+, har vi förbättrat olika aspekter av ViEWS (Violence Early-Warning System), ett system som med maskinlärning försöker förutsäga var i världen väpnade konflikter kommer uppstå. Målet med ViEWS är att kunna förutsäga sannolikheten för konflikter så långt som 36 månader i framtiden. Målet med att förutsäga sannoliketen för konflikter är att politiker och beslutsfattare ska kunna använda dessa kunskaper för att förhindra dem. Indata till systemet är konfliktdata med ett stort antal egenskaper, så som tidigare konflikter, barnadödlighet och urbanisering. Dessa är av varierande användbarhet, vilket skapar ett behov för att sålla ut de som inte är användbara för att förutsäga framtida konflikter. Innan vårt projekt har forskarna som använder ViEWS valt ut egenskaper för hand, vilket blir allt svårare i och med att fler introduceras. Forskargruppen hade även ingen formell metodik för att välja parametervärden till de maskinlärningsfunktioner de använder. De valde parametrar baserat på erfarenhet och känsla, något som kan leda till onödigt långa exekveringstider och eventuellt sämre resultat beroende på funktionen som används. Våra mål med projektet var att förbättra systemets produktivitet, i termer av exekveringstid och säkerheten i förutsägelserna. För att uppnå detta utvecklade vi analysverktyg för att försöka lösa de existerande problemen. Vi har utvecklat ett verktyg för att välja ut färre, mer användbara, egenskaper från datasamlingen. Detta gör att egenskaper som inte tillför någon viktig information kan sorteras bort vilket sparar exekveringstid. Vi har även jämfört prestandan hos olika maskinlärningsfunktioner, för att identifiera de bäst lämpade för konfliktprediktion. Slutligen har vi implementerat ett verktyg för att analysera hur resultaten från funktionerna varierar efter valet av parametrar. Detta gör att man systematiskt kan bestämma vilka parametervärden som bör väljas för att garantera bra resultat samtidigt som exekveringstid hålls nere. Våra resultat visar att med våra förbättringar sänkes exekveringstiden med en faktor av omkring nio och förutsägelseförmågorna höjdes med en faktor av tre. Vi hoppas att vårt arbete kan leda till säkrare föutsägelser och vilket i sin tur kanske leder till en fredligare värld.
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Binney, Michael W. "Joint close air support in the low intensity conflict." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2003. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion-image/03Jun%5FBinney.pdf.
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Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2003.<br>Thesis advisor(s): James A. Russell, Gregory K. Mislick. Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-69). Also available online.
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Whitt, Jacqueline Earline. "Conflict and compromise : American military chaplains and the Vietnam war /." Chapel Hill, N.C. : University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2008. http://dc.lib.unc.edu/u?/etd,1704.
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Whitt, Jacqueline Earline Kohn Richard H. "Conflict and compromise American military chaplains and the Vietnam war /." Chapel Hill, N.C. : University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2008. http://dc.lib.unc.edu/u?/etd,1704.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2008.<br>Title from electronic title page (viewed Sep. 16, 2008). "... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of History." Discipline: History; Department/School: History.
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Ziebarth, Kurt W. "Civil-military relations in the Soviet Union : poised for conflict." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/28029.
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Sinclair, Cody S. "Effects of military/family conflict on female naval officer retention." Thesis, access online version, 2004. http://theses.nps.navy.mil/04Jun%5FSinclair.pdf.
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Felbab-Brown, Vanda. "Shooting up : the impact of illicit economics on military conflict." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/38600.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, February 2007.<br>Page 642 blank.<br>Includes bibliographical references (v. 2, p. 575-641).<br>The study explores the nexus between illicit economies and military conflicts. It investigates when and how access by belligerents to the production and trafficking of illicit substances affects the strength of belligerents and governments. Although narcotics trafficking is often treated as sui generis, the study situates the drug trade within the larger class of markets for illicit products and services. The study presents a general theory of the relationship between illicit markets and military conflict - the political capital of illicit economies -- and contrasts it with conventional wisdom on connections between drug trafficking and military conflict. The political capital of illicit economies argues that belligerents derive much more than simply large financial profits from their sponsorship of illicit economies. They also obtain freedom of action and, crucially, legitimacy and support from the local population, called political capital. If belligerents choose to become negatively involved in the illicit economy (attempt to destroy it), they not only fail to increase their military capabilities, but also suffer costs in terms of political capital. The extent and scope of belligerents' gains/ losses from their involvement in the illicit economy depend on four factors:<br>(cont.) the state of the overall economy; the character of the illicit economy; the presence of traffickers; and the government response to the illicit economy. These factors reflect both structural conditions outside of the immediate control of the belligerents and the government and strategic policy choices available to either the belligerents or the government. Contrary to the conventional wisdom about narcotics and military conflict, eradication of narcotics cultivation has dubious effects on the capabilities of the belligerents and is extremely unlikely to severely weaken them. However, it alienates the local population from the government and results in the population's unwillingness to provide intelligence on the belligerents - a crucial requirement for success against the belligerents. Thus, eradication of illicit crops increases the political capital of the belligerents without significantly weakening their military capabilities. The primary cases explored in the study are Peru, Colombia, and Afghanistan. Additional evidence is drawn from the cases of Burma, Northern Ireland, Turkey, and India.<br>by Vanda Felbab-Brown.<br>Ph.D.
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Jones, Cherlyn Heather Tee. "Warrior/shaman| Creative praxis for conflict transformation." Thesis, Pacifica Graduate Institute, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3726313.
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<p> The purpose of this artistic self-case study is to explore how the role of the soldier might be transformed from service <i>in war</i> to service <i>for community,</i> via creative exploration of the archetypal figures, Warrior and Shaman. With this in mind, a creative and introspective method was tested for its efficacy in generating new images and stories to promote conflict transformation for our warrior class. </p><p> The strategy of inquiry employed is based on the case study model, modified to be a self-case study. Creation-based data was generated by the researcher to evoke intersubjective dialogue between academically rational and creatively nonrational data and processes in this research. In lieu of the traditional written chapters that comprise the body of a dissertation, “creative chapters” in the form of mixed media pictorial representations are presented. Data analysis was conducted using Abt’s (2005) articulation of Jungian picture interpretation, in order to discern meaning from each creative chapter—the titles of which served as a query for topics related to the research question. </p><p> A liberation paradigm was then utilized as a critical point of departure, to guide the issues examined (healing and community roles for our warrior class), the people for whom the study is relevant (the warrior class and practitioners working with them), the researcher’s role in the study (up front/personal; grounded in experience), and how the research was presented in its final form (written text with supporting pictorial data; conclusions drawn from creative interpretation). </p><p> The combined chapter interpretations were reviewed and analyzed in the concluding chapter for their implications in community praxis with returning soldiers and veterans. They revealed consistent themes of imbalanced masculine and feminine energies, and the need for development of an introspective, Shamanic aptitude by our Warriors in order for them to continue their duty of protection and care of their local communities. </p><p> Recommendations are then made for adapting this research model in community work with soldiers and veterans, along with suggestions for building greater levels of reliability, validity, and generalizability into creative qualitative research. </p><p> Keywords: Warrior, Shaman, trauma, conflict transformation, resilient communities, Jungian, phronesis, counterinsurgency, initiation, creative.</p>
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Acosta, Marcus P. "High altitude warfare : the Kargil Conflict and the future /." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2003. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion-image/03Jun%5FAcosta.pdf.
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Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, June, 2003.<br>Thesis advisor(s): Peter Lavoy, Douglas Porch. Includes bibliographical references (p. 79-83). Also available online.
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Corkins, Chelsea Rose. "Gully erosion assessment and growth prediction on military training lands." Thesis, Kansas State University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/16240.
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Master of Science<br>Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering<br>Stacy Hutchinson<br>Military maneuvers result in significant physical and environmental impacts to the landscape. These impacts generally result in a loss of vegetative cover and increased watershed runoff and rate depending on vehicle speed, turning radius, and soil moisture content. Unless adequately monitored or mitigated, this increased runoff can lead to excessive soil erosion and gully formation. Past studies have revealed that these gullies can impact water quality from excessive erosion and create concerns regarding soldier safety. In order to better understand how gullies form and evolve overtime on military installations, a study is being conducted at Fort Riley, KS.
In 2010, approximately forty gullies were identified, assessed, and measured using common erosion monitoring and surveying techniques. These gully locations, and any newly formed gullies, were remeasured using these same methods in 2012 to determine the rate of growth for each site with respect to width, depth, and headcut. Of fifty-nine gullies total, twenty one were initially included in this study. Upon further analysis including the utilization of watershed characteristics and land management techniques, eleven of the 21 utilized gullies were deemed appropriate to include in predictive assessment, as these eleven systems exhibited singular headcut migration.
Multiple Regression Analysis was utilized to produce predictive equations for Headcut Growth. This equation [Headcut Growth = 0.666 + 0.137(Watershed Slope) – 0.478(Training Intensity) + 0.757(log[Watershed Area]) – 0.278(Drainage Density) – 0.0138(Above Ground Biomass Change) + 0.187(Burning Frequency] resulted in a model relationship of approximately 90%, with Watershed Slope being the most significant variable when an output Headcut Growth was reached.
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Mokoena, Benjamin P. O. "Conflict and peace in Burundi : exploring the cause(s) and nature of the conflict and prospects for peace." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/2394.
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Thesis (MMil (Security and Africa Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2006.<br>The purpose of this study is to investigate the cause(s), the nature, and characteristics of the conflict in Burundi,
and 10 explore the conditions for sustainable peace and prospects for peace. The study is intended as a
descriptive analysis of conflict and peace in a case study of Burundi. Since independence in 1962, intermittent
conflict has characterised the state of Burundi. There are various accounts of the conflict, of which a popular,
but superficial, relates an 'ethnic' conflict between Hutus and Tutsis. Equally disparate, is the prescription of
solutions, the most dominant of which is power sharing based on ethnic quotas. The conflict is played out in the
context of a failing state with sharp structural weaknesses. In addition, Burundi is mired in the wider instabilities
of the Great Lakes region and the communicable effects thereof.
The study breaks away from the tendency to analyse only the current (since 1993) bout of conflict. It is
proposed that the various incidences of conflict mark different phases in the life cycle of a single conflict. The
study also breaks away from the tendency to view the conflict as only opposing Hutus and Tutsis. These two
tendencies in analysis generate serious distortions and omissions and may account for the wrong conclusions
regarding the conflict in Burundi. Another contribution of the study resides with the proposal of the necessary
and sufficient conditions for peace in Burundi. The contention brought forward by this study is that exclusion
would appear to be the strongest theoretical approach to understand and describe the conflict in Burundi. In
this regard, one particular contentious issue has remained constant throughout all the incidences of conflict
involving different groups. The central issue has been about the political economy of Burundi that has
systematically denied social mobility for the 'other'. The Burundian state is a repository of political, economic
and social security where the 'other', defined in ethnic, intra-ethnic, clanic, regional, elitist (and historically
dynastic) terms, is excluded and subordinated. Exclusion (and the consequent inequalities and injustices) is a
source of acute grievance and motivation for collective violence. The resultant conflict has manifested in a
struggle for the control of the state. Inter alia, the conflict has been pemicious, genocidal, protracted and
intractable.
The notion of institutionalised power sharing, based on ethnic quotas, has been put forward by the actors in the
peace process as the fundamental principle guiding the search for a solution to the conflict in Burundi. The
study concludes that power sharing may be necessary, as a confidence building measure, however, power
Sharing in itself is not a sufficient condition for sustainable peace, and may well in fulure prove to be Ihe
weakest link in the peace process. Inter alia, the conditions in Burundi are not amenable to institutionalised
power sharing as such, e.g. the presence of an overwhelming majority, and deep socio-economic inequality
along ethnic lines. Further, the current power sharing structure in Burundi tilts the democratic framework in
favour of Tutsi participation and security, awards the Tutsi with a de facto veto power, fixes the ethnic balance of
power, and thus perpetuates conflict generating Tutsi domination of the political economy of Burundi. This
study proposes the reconstruction of the state (state building) as a necessary precondition for peace. II is
concluded that political representation, economic opportunity and social mobility, must transcend social
categories in Burundi. The continuing instabilities in the Great Lakes region are also a point of concem. Thus,
peace in Burundi is also contingent upon greater efforts to curb the communicable conflicts in this region.
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McRae, Peter. "Unaccountable Soldiers: Private Military Companies and the Law of Armed Conflict." Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/20580.
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The use of Private Military Companies (PMCs) has become an increasingly common feature of contemporary armed conflict. Because of their autonomous contractual status, PMCs have presented governments with problems of accountability on several levels, including violations of international human rights and humanitarian law (IHL) standards. This thesis argues that PMCs should be considered to be non-state actors (NSAs), subject to international law from both an International Relations Theory and a Legal Theory perspective. This conclusion is linked to the issue of whether individual PMC employees can be treated as legitimate combatants according to IHL. State practice has not led to a clear understanding of the definition of combatant, a problem which has been compounded by a lack of government policy on the use of PMCs. Using Canadian experience as a case study, the thesis concludes that IHL suggests two options for regularizing the status of PMCs which would both strengthen accountability and uphold the rule of law.
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Wann, Shian-Kuen. "Probability prediction of a nation's internal conflict based on instability." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Naval Postgraduate School, 2008. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA483577.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2008.<br>Thesis Advisor(s): Lin, Kyle. "June 2008." Description based on title screen as viewed on August 28, 2008. Includes bibliographical references (p. 45). Also available in print.
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Walter, Jd. "Predicting and Mitigating Civil Conflict: Vertical Grievances and Conflict in Central Africa." ScholarWorks, 2020. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/7961.
Full textAbstract:
Recent conflict research has relied on proxy variables of horizontal inequality to make causal assumptions, but these do not reveal the root of deprivation in aggrieved populations. However, it is important to continue to explore the greed-grievance dichotomy to explain the persistence of violent civil conflict. The purpose of this quantitative study was to expand this line of inquiry by investigating the relationship between indicators of vertical deprivation and reported civil conflict incidents to determine whether a significant correlation exists. Relative deprivation theory provided the framework for this study, which consisted of 10,779 survey responses regarding lived experience across 7 countries experiencing a total of 890 civil conflict incidents in 2016. Although tests of multiple linear regression indicated statistically significant relationships (p < .001) between two of the predictor variables and reported civil conflict incidents, the availability of electricity when connected to the main made the most substantial contribution to the model in both predictability and correlation. Therefore, the findings provide insight into the type and nature of deprivations, such as those associated with access to and availability of electricity, that have the greatest potential of becoming grievances susceptible to exploitation by conflict entrepreneurs. Implications for positive social change include using this analysis to promote increased conflict inquiry among public administration scholars and to inform a more substantive role of local government managers in identifying and remediating vertical grievances, thereby mitigating civil conflict.
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Beattie, Troy J. "Conventional deterrence and the Falkland Islands conflict." Thesis, Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate School, 2010. http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Mar/10Mar%5FBeattie.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Defense Decision-Making And Planning))--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2010.<br>Thesis Advisor(s): Russell, James. ; Moran, Daniel. "March 2010." Description based on title screen as viewed on April 30, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Deterrence (Strategy); Conventional Deterrence (Strategy); Deterrence-Psychology; Falkland Islands War, 1982; Great Britain; Argentina; Defense Policy Includes bibliographical references (p. 109-112). Also available in print.
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Alloush, Ayman. "A comprehensive conventional weapons convention : military expenditure, conflict, democracy, and development nexus." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10036/4030.
Full textAbstract:
Military expenditure continues to rise and conventional weapons continue to reach areas of conflict, violators of human rights, and terrorist groups, increasing the number of internal and external conflicts, escalating the level of internal oppression and contributing to the deterioration of living conditions. Every day, thousands of lives are lost, and many more people are injured, orphaned or displaced because of armed violence by conventional weapons, yet no comprehensive treaty on conventional weapons has yet been reached. There has been no lack of effort and initiatives, but rather a lack of goodwill, proper guidelines, and instruments that would control the arms trade. Therefore, the central arguments the present thesis seeks to examine are the consequences of this lack of an international conventional arms trade treaty on international security, especially in the conflict-torn Middle East. In order to support the claims made in this study the statistics of global arms sales in different time periods are presented and the relationships between armament, conflict, and development examined. Initiatives to regulate arms sales are also reviewed. In order to elicit information on the role of conventional arms deals on the stability, security, and development of Middle-Eastern countries a questionnaire was distributed to a cross-section of people from those countries, and interviews were conducted with a number of diplomats and politicians. The findings reveal that increasing armament does not decrease the internal or external threat against the country, instead it jeopardizes its economic growth and prevents progress. The findings also indicate that lack of democracy plays an important role in increasing armament, so arms can be used against opponents of the regime, and not to defend the homeland. The thesis recommends that governments and international agencies such as the UN should work seriously towards an international conventional arms treaty similar to those on weapons of mass destruction.
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Perazzola, Laura J. "Civil-military operations in the post conflict environment: Northern Uganda case study." Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/10669.
Full textAbstract:
Northern Uganda has suffered a violent civil conflict between the Government of Uganda and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), for over two decades. The conflict has resulted in over 1.6 million internally displaced persons within Uganda, as well as over 66,000 children abducted and forced into soldiering. In 2006, the LRA could no longer sustain the fight against the Government of Uganda and fled to into Southern Sudan. Northern Uganda shifted from a combat zone into an extremely complex post conflict environment. The Government of Uganda began reconstruction efforts to piece the region back together with a series of programs, projects and donors. Central to the overall efforts towards security and development was the Ugandan military, the UPDF. The UPDF conducted a series of civil-military operations to assist in reconstruction and post conflict operations within its own borders. Using the Northern Uganda post conflict environment, this study will explore the impact of civil-military operations within the overall of post conflict operations, to include stability and counterinsurgency operations. Through the Ugandan example, this study will determine the salience of civil military operations in post conflict operations as both a force multiplier and a means to gain popular support for the government.
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Molefhe, Ishmael Rapula Moagi. "An analysis of military power sharing in Mozambique: a conflict management perspective." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/19212.
Full textAbstract:
This study is a conceptual analysis of power-sharing. It applies power-sharing in the context of Mozambique. The study is informed on the premise that components of power sharing contribute to the duration of peace. However, findings from empirical investigations show that certain types of power sharing are associated with more durable peace than others, primarily through their positive effects on governance and public service delivery. The specific objectives of the study were to contextualize the concept of military power sharing arrangement; to explore the challenges faced in implementing the military power sharing arrangement in Mozambique; to explore the strategies used to manage the Mozambique peace process; to ascertain the challenges faced by the BDF during the reintegration standardized training of FRELIMO and RENAMO forces; and to propose recommendations for future interventions. In order to achieve these objectives, the study used a purposive sampling technique to assemble participants that provided useful data for the study. The target population was made up of members of the Botswana Defence Force (BDF) who participated in the United Nations Peace Mission in Mozambique dubbed UNOMOZ; and those who conducted the reintegration standardized training of FRELIMO and RENAMO military personnel Thematic analysis of the participants’ responses from the interviews was used to address the objectives of the study. The findings of the study reveal that poorly trained military personnel were a challenge to the implementation of power sharing deal in Mozambique. Also, there was a lack of trust and confidence between constituent parties, and a lack of transitional authority in holding forth power until the power sharing deal was fully implemented. In addition, the study found out that there was the problem of language barrier, and that very little counselling was offered to those who were traumatized by the conflict. Also, there was a kind of unwillingness by civilians to accept former combatants in their midst and a lack of logistics for both the peace keepers and the combatants. Among others, the study recommended that NGOs, civil society organizations, and churches should be more pro-active in engaging the government and not only ensuring that every party involved in the power-sharing deal fulfills its role, but also organizing and carrying out counselling sessions for ex-combatants as part of reintegration process.
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Dunbar, Tavarus James. "Conflict Resolution Strategies Used by Civilian Small Business Managers on Military Bases." ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/5074.
Full textAbstract:
Unresolved conflict is responsible for at least 50% of resignations in the workplace, which negatively affects an organization's reputation and profitability. Although there has been ample research on the link between conflict resolution and leadership, there was limited research on conflict aboard military installations specifically. The purpose of this multiple case study was to explore conflict resolution strategies of civilian small business managers who work on a military installation in Southern Arizona. The theory of realistic conflict, or realistic group conflict theory, was used as the conceptual framework for this study. The data collection process involved semistructured interviews of 11 managers selected from 4 different civilian small businesses via purposive sampling along with company documents and public information found on the Internet containing conflict resolution processes within the organization. Transcribed interviews were coded and analyzed using software to help generate emergent themes. Yin's comprehensive data analysis method of compiling, assembling and disassembling, interpreting, and making conclusions resulted in the emergence of 3 themes: effective communication, situational leadership, and organizational culture. The results from this study may help business leaders identify strategies for resolving conflict, as well as recognize issues beforehand, mitigating conflict before is develops. This study has implications for positive social change, in that potential outcome of reduced conflict may lead to more organizational productivity and increase the revenue stream that is input into base programs for military members, their families, and other government employees, subsequently improving their quality of life.
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Harris, Andrea. "Venereal disease in the British military through conflict and reconstruction 1939-1950." Thesis, University of Winchester, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.549639.
Full textAbstract:
Responses to venereal disease in the British army can only be understood if looked at in a wider context that takes in the attitudes of some of the most influential sectors of British society. Medical professionals, especially those advising and working with the British army, suggested that the problem would be better resolved ifVD was simply treated like any other disease; they called for treatment to be blame and stigma free. However, the British army found this impossible and resorted to an assortment of strategies that were relics of the past and were often at variance with each other. Troops lost pay and rights to leave if they contracted VD confirming that to become infected was a punitive offence; lectures confirmed to troops that to be celibate would not endanger health and to contract a venereal infection was letting down themselves, their comrades and the nation. At the same time the army provided military brothels and disinfectants to use after sex. This thesis examines the influences that obstructed a clear policy; it is only with a thorough investigation into the discourses that surrounded VD that we can appreciate the deficiency and ambiguity of the strategies adopted. The attitudes of the churches, the religious organisations, the voluntary groups and the popular press confirmed that certain groups were to blame and the result of these persistent and Ubiquitous views was that no clear course of action was ever universally accepted or implemented. VD like other social diseases generated responses that confirmed that VD was more than the 'common contagion' that some doctors would have preferred it to be. Strategies to combat it were complicated by the social construction of the disease, obscured by perceptions of who was most likely to catch it and fears over the repercussions for society and the nation, especially during a time when being different took on new meaning. Fears surrounding the infection of individual bodies metaphorically represented broader fears for the body ofthe nation and just as those from outside the nation were distrusted so were the 'infectors' within.
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Šváb, David. "Private Military Companies v Africe." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-149825.
Full textAbstract:
The Master's thesis "Private Military Companies in Africa" deals with the issues of the private military and security companies and their current position in international security relations. The central thesis of this academic publication is the question whether these commercial companies are capable of representing a significant position within the international community and executing extensive operations in conflict resolution and the subsequent transition towards a stable arrangement of the stricken regions. Essentially, the arguments leading to the key objective of this thesis are drawing upon a comparative study of recent activities of PMCs on the African continent, a discursive analysis of the approach towards these private subjects, as well as their international legal status. Consequently, by relying on the gathered information from the aforementioned research, the most substantial section of the text offers basic models of potential widespread use of private military companies in connection with national states and international organizations and explains the benefits resulting from this shift towards privatization of global security. Furthermore, the publication points out specific contemporary cases for the prospective application of PMCs and analyses the space for this industry within the existing international system.
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Flaherty, Christopher. "A theory of war as conflict without rules." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/9438.
Full textAbstract:
Theoretical understandings of war have been dominated by the thought of Clausewitz for a number of decades. His thought is valid in many respects, but for various reasons it is open to misinterpretation and misunderstanding; furthermore, a number of his observations (particularly on the prevalence of chance and uncertainty in war) are not fully explored and substantiated theoretically. This thesis is an attempt to present and elucidate a new theoretical understanding of war's nature which complements Clausewitz's theories and addresses these concerns: this is the understanding of war as a form of violent conflict which is not bound by rules. The thesis consists of five main chapters. The first is an in-depth study of Clausewitz, which will provide an exegesis of his theories and highlight the deficiencies in his thought, before positing how understanding war as ‘violent conflict without rules' could be used to address and explain them. The second chapter is a study of the theory of rules, examining in particular the role they play in moderating conflict: we can find that amongst other things, rules lend predictability and psychological security to a contest, restrict the scope of physical harm and tend to preserve the political and social status quo. As war lacks rules (in the sense that there are no ‘rules of war' as there are ‘rules of chess'), it therefore lacks these benefits. A following chapter on the laws and customs of war will address cases where war appears to be bound by rules, and clarify my position. The final two chapters explore the implications of war's lack of rules with reference to two areas which are most commonly associated with war. The fourth chapter on strategy will explore how this military concept is necessitated by war's ruleless nature; the final chapter will examine the uniquely violent, physical nature of war through the same theoretical prism, and will show how the technological innovation associated with war is a consequence of its lack of regulation, and a potent contributor to the chance and uncertainty which plagues warfare.
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Erlichman, Camilo. "Strategies of rule : cooperation and conflict in the British Zone of Germany, 1945-1949." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/25995.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis examines strategies of rule deployed during the British occupation of north-western Germany from 1945 to 1949 and explores instances of cooperation and conflict between the occupiers and the occupied population. While the literature has primarily looked at the occupation through the lens of big political projects, this study analyses the application of quotidian ruling strategies and the making of stability on the ground. Techniques for controlling the German population were devised during the war and transmitted to officials through extensive training. Lessons from previous occupations and imperial experiences also entered the Military Government’s ruling philosophy by way of the biographical composition of its top cadre. Once in Germany, the British instituted a system of ‘indirect rule’ which relied on focal points of visibility as embodied by their local officials charged with cooperating with German notables, and invisible instances of supervision in the form of mass surveillance of civilian communications. To illustrate the way the occupiers dealt with conflict, the thesis analyses the dispensation of punishment for breaking Military Government laws, demonstrating that the British often issued severe punishment when their monopoly of force was contested, thus belying the notion of a particularly docile occupation. During mass popular protests, however, they sought to use moderate German trade unionists as intermediaries tasked with diffusing popular unrest, who were co-opted in exchange for material and propagandistic support. The British also used German administrators at the local and regional level, many of whom had a distinctively technocratic and conservative profile and who were appointed for their administrative experience rather than for their political inclinations. Through lobbying by British ecclesiastical figures, the occupiers also cooperated extensively with the German Churches, who were seen as effective partners in the re-Christianisation of Germany and increasingly as an essential bulwark against Communism. The thesis concludes that the long-term legacies of the British occupation lay in the effects of ‘indirect rule’, which exacerbated social inequalities by strengthening the profile of certain social elites at the expense of mass politics. The occupation is finally placed within the comparative context of occupations in Western Europe during the mid-20th century, which had the common legacy of buttressing elites who were primarily concerned with the making of stability rather than with participatory democracy, thus giving the post-war era its conservative mould.
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Tonkin, Hannah Jane. "States' international obligations to control private military & security companies in armed conflict." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2011. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:1658758a-481a-4f1c-83c0-2ef269a78778.
Full textAbstract:
Tens of thousands of contractors work for private military and security companies (PMSCs) in armed conflicts around the world, often hired by states to fulfil functions that were once the exclusive domain of the armed forces. In this context, PMSCs have performed a wide range of activities including offensive combat, prisoner interrogation, military advice and training, armed security, intelligence and logistics. The proliferation of PMSCs during the past two decades has challenged conventional conceptions of the state as the primary holder of coercive power in the international arena. Nonetheless, this Thesis argues that the traditional state-centred frameworks of international law remain vitally relevant to the regulation of private security activity in contemporary armed conflict. Three states are in a strong position to influence PMSCs in this context—the state that hires the PMSC, the state in which the company is based or incorporated, and the state in which the company operates—and this capacity for influence enables international law to regulate PMSC activities indirectly using these states as an intermediary. This Thesis critically analyses the pertinent international obligations on these three categories of states and identifies the circumstances in which PMSC misconduct may give rise to state responsibility in each case. It also examines the recent practice of certain key states in order to evaluate their compliance with these obligations. By providing a clear and in-depth analysis of states' international obligations to control PMSCs in armed conflict, this Thesis may not only facilitate the assessment of state responsibility in cases of PMSC misconduct; it may also play an important prospective role in setting standards of conduct for states in relation to the private security industry. This in turn may encourage and assist states to develop their domestic laws and policies in order to improve overall PMSC compliance with international law.
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Freeman, Jeffrey B. "The Potential for religious conflict in the United States Military Jeffrey B. Freeman." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/1793.
Full textAbstract:
The 2004 presidential election seemed to signal growing religious fervor across the political spectrum. Members of the media and pollsters alike were left wondering what went on inside the voting booth. Religion has long played a role in American politics, dating back to the Constitution of the United States of America. When components of government, the military, religion, and society converge, discussion and debate invariably follows. The United States military is a religiously pluralistic institution, with members belonging to an estimated 700 religions. The chaplaincy champions religious accommodation and the military itself supports over 245 faith groups. The chaplaincy is at the core of this religious accommodation since chaplains maintain a dual allegiance, as members of the clergy and as members of the officer corps. As religious diversity grows, the likelihood of controversy increases when, for instance, Indian members of the Native American Church take peyote, Wiccans observe pagan rites on military bases, and Muslim chaplains serve Muslim soldiers who find themselves at war within an Islamic country. This thesis explores some of the challenges inherent in ministering to so many diverse religions, and takes a critical look at areas of potential friction that might cause the Department of Defense to want to take a more attentive look at what such diversity means for the future.
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Hinz, Jessica G. "Prediction of child abuse potential of pregnant teens : social support, conflict, attachment /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1997. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9841149.
Full text
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Sagar, Shraddha. "PREDICTION OF PROTECTED-PERMISSIVE LEFT-TURN PHASING CRASHES BASED ON CONFLICT ANALYSIS." UKnowledge, 2017. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/ce_etds/60.
Full textAbstract:
Left-turning maneuvers are considered to be the highest risk movements at intersections and two-thirds of the crashes associated with left-turns are reported at signalized intersections. Left-turning vehicles typically encounter conflicts from opposing through traffic. To separate conflicting movements, transportation agencies use a protected-only phase at signalized intersections where each movement is allowed to move alone. However, this could create delays and thus the concept of a protected-permissive phase has been introduced to balance safety and delays. However, the permissive part of this phasing scheme retains the safety concerns and could increase the possibility of conflicts resulting in crashes. This research developed a model that can predict the number of crashes for protected-permissive left-turn phasing, based on traffic volumes and calculated conflicts. A total of 103 intersections with permissive-protected left-turn phasing in Kentucky were simulated and their left-turn related conflicts were obtained from post processing vehicle trajectories through the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM). Factors that could affect crash propensity were identified through the Principal Component Analysis in Negative Binomial Regression. Nomographs were developed from the models which can be used by traffic engineers in left-turn phasing decisions with enhanced safety considerations.
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Dalisay, Francis Sapiandante. "Information use, attitude formation, and opinion expression concerning the U.S. military buildup on Guam the effects of colonial debt, pro-local stances, and conflict avoidance /." Pullman, Wash. : Washington State University, 2010. http://www.dissertations.wsu.edu/Dissertations/Spring2010/f_dalisay_020210.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Washington State University, May 2010.<br>Title from PDF title page (viewed on June 4, 2010). "Edward R. Murrow College of Communication." Includes bibliographical references (p. 110-126).
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Chamberlain, Beatrice. "Protector or oppressor? : A comparative case study of internal conflict and military influence in Myanmar and the Philippines." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-421119.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis aims to test the causal connection between internal security threats and political intervention by the military in states which have recently transitioned to democracy. In order to investigate this, a comparative case study is conducted between the recent case of Myanmar and the case of the Philippines in the 1980s with the aim of investigating how the presence of internal conflict in the two countries has impacted the level of military influence post-transition. This is investigated through a qualitative analysis of the countries’ constitutions as well as statements by political and military leaders in order to investigate how the issues of internal conflict and the role of the military are defined, perceived and portrayed. The results of the study demonstrate that differences in these areas may explain why the military in Myanmar has managed to intervene more successfully. <img src="blob:https://uu.diva-portal.org/f8bb8d04-2f8c-4176-a36d-2e9876197374" />
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Santos, William O. "An analysis of the prediction accuracy of the U.S. Navy repair turn-around time forecast model." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2003. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion-image/03Jun%5FSantos.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2003.<br>Thesis advisor(s): Robert A. Koyak, Samuel E. Buttrey. Includes bibliographical references (p. 55). Also available online.
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Sims, Bryan M. "Conflict in perpetuity? Examining Zimbabwe’s protracted social conflict through the lens of land reform." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/96932.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.<br>ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation analyses the relationship between civil society and political leadership within
the context of Zimbabwe’s protracted social conflict, particularly through the lens of land
policy. Through the use of strategic informants, it yields important insights into the origins,
form and impact of political leadership and civil society in a way that will expose the dynamics
of elite and grassroots mobilisation and the political context in which land policy is either made
or obstructed. Specifically, this dissertation examines two research questions. First, if political
leadership is not representative of the citizenry, is land policy more likely to engender overt
conflict? Second, if civil society has an autonomous role in the public sphere, is land policy
more likely to benefit citizens? This dissertation also confronts an emerging empirical problem:
the absence of descriptive data in regards to how civil society and political leadership have
engaged in reforming land policy in Zimbabwe during the period of transition from 2008 to
2013. By measuring representation and autonomy – indicators of human needs satisfaction– this
dissertation traced each phase of the protracted social conflict as it both helped to create the
conditions for a liberation model of representation while simultaneously further exacerbating
protracted social conflict within Zimbabwe.<br>AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis ontleed die verhouding tussen die burgerlike samelewing en politieke leierskap
veral deur die lens van grondbeleid, binne die konteks van Zimbabwe se uitgerekte sosiale
konflik. Dit het ten doel om belangrike insigte op te lewer in die oorsprong, vorm en impak van
politieke leierskap en die burgerlike samelewing. Die word blootgestel in 'n manier wat die
dinamika van die elite en mobilisering op grondvlak in ag neem soweel as die politieke konteks
waarin grondbeleid óf gemaak is of belemmer word. Hierdie tesis konfronteer ook 'n
opkomende empiriese probleem: die afwesigheid van beskrywende data met betrekking tot die
betrokkenheod van die burgerlike samelewing en politieke leierskap tydens die
grondhervorming proses in Zimbabwe gedurende die tydperk van oorgang tussen 2008 en 2013.
Deur die meting van verteenwoordiging en outonomie - aanwysers van menslike behoeftes
bevrediging - word elke fase van die uitgerekte sosiale konflik ondersoek met betrekking tot
hoe ‘n bevryding model van verteenwoordigheid beide gehelp het om die voorwaardes te
skepvir die eindeiging van die PSC; maar terselfdertyd het dit ook die sosiale konflik in
Zimbabwe verder uitgerek. !
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Sigurdh, Lina. "Militarization: A Witch's War Brew? : How military power affects authoritarian regimes' behavior." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för freds- och konfliktforskning, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-430265.
Full textAbstract:
The effect of regime type on conflict onset is a well-studied phenomenon, and various studies have found that variance in regime type, and within regime types, affects conflict onset. For instance, militarization in autocracies seems to be linked with increased risk of initiating conflict. However, even in the studies that disaggregate types of autocracies, the categorizations are relatively shallow. This thesis aims to create a definition of military dictatorships which captures their complexity more fully, to determine whether militarization truly does increase the risk of conflict onset. Military dictatorships are here defined as a state that achieves and maintains power through threat or actual use of force, is outwardly or effectively controlled by military officers, and places high value on maintaining a powerful armed force to protect constitutional and territorial integrity. The method used is a logistic regression, where the independent variable is military dictatorship, and the dependent variable is directed dyads. The results show that when a state is a military dictatorship, the log odds of it initiating conflict is 0.73; military dictatorships are indeed more likely to initiate conflict than autocracies in general.
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Roberts, Ruth. "The role of military companies in African conflicts." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/2187.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (MA (Political Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007.<br>Private military companies (PMCs)are increasing becoming involved in modern conflicts providing specialised skills such as combat services, planning, intelligence, training, support and technical assistance. They provide an alternative to weak state governments as Western governments have become increasingly reluctant to commit their troops to be involved in the civil conflicts of the developing world. Supporters of the employment of private forces see them as an effective solution to this combination of need from conflict-ridden weak states and reluctance of Western governments and international organisations to intervene in these conflicts ...
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Skaar, Steinar. "The utility of coercion theory in the Afghan conflict." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2017. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/8872/.
Full textAbstract:
This thesis examines the utility of coercion theory in complex contemporary conflicts through a study of the Afghan conflict as it unfolded in the provinces of Faryab and Kunduz from 2005 to 2012. The last two decades have produced ample examples of incidents where the UN, international alliances or states have found it necessary to use force in order to coerce states or armed groups to stop unacceptable activities or change their behaviour. However, the potential of military force to induce behavioural change in such conflicts is understudied and poorly understood. In the Afghan conflict the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) together with the Afghan security forces applied force in order to influence the Taliban and other groups who violently opposed the elected government to change their behaviour. Although neither ISAF nor the participating nations had articulated a coercive strategy, force was used consistent with coercion theory on a number of occasions. Coercion theory consists of a number of assumptions and presuppositions, the existence of which should be present on the ground for theory to have utility. This thesis argues that these were generally not, or only to a limited degree present in the Afghan conflict. It further argues that in the cases where ISAF and its Afghan allies applied force consistent with theory, it did generally not translate to the desired outcomes, in particular when coercion represented the dominant effort. This thesis consequently argues that coercion theory is not well suited to provide explanatory power to or predict outcomes in conflicts that are comparable to the conflict in Afghanistan. In particular, theory’s presumption of unitary actors, the rationality presumption and the notion of the credible threat is insufficient. Theory’s notion of coercive mechanisms also assumes a connection between human behaviour and what may influence it that is overly simplistic. This consequently proposes a revised set of assumptions and presuppositions as well as a revised understanding of mechanisms that acknowledges that coercion alone is rarely sufficient to instil sustainable change.
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Sanderson, Paul W. "Obesity in the army : prevalence, correlates and prediction." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2014. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/15862.
Full textAbstract:
The emergence of obesity as a distinct disease could have far reaching consequences for an organisation where optimum health and physical fitness are required for personnel to perform their occupational roles effectively. The aim of this thesis is to increase our understanding of the prevalence, correlates and predictors of obesity in the British Army. Systematic review indicated a smaller body of knowledge in respect of the treatment and correlates of obesity in military populations. Successful treatment interventions incorporated exercise, healthy eating information, behavioural modification, self-monitoring, relapse prevention, structured follow-up and were supported by trained personnel. The major significant correlates of obesity were being enlisted personnel, male, ≥35 years of age, African-American/Hispanic ethnicity, and married (with spouse present). The review highlighted the deficit in knowledge concerning treatment, and correlates of obesity in military populations. The trend of escalating obesity has prompted some armed forces to report obesity trends and prevalence, the findings of which suggest that obesity is a growing concern in the armed services. A study based on the secondary analysis of data covering 50,000 British Army soldiers indicated that according to BMI, 56.7% of the study population were overweight and of those individuals 12% were obese. When waist circumference data were added to the BMI data, the results indicate that females displayed a higher percentage of risk of obesity related ill-health (a combination of BMI and waist circumference) than males (30.4% and 24% respectively). Further analysis suggested that age, marital status, rank and military employment category were significant correlates of obesity. Additionally, obesity and increased risk of obesity related-ill-health were linked to higher failure and lower attendance on British Army physical tests. Data suggested older army personnel (>30) had a higher pass rate, but a lower attendance rate. The final analysis of all available variables suggested physical test outcome, age, medical status and enlisted status were the most significant predictors of obesity. A final study based on a different study population (n=1124) from the high readiness component of the UK based British Army sought to identify relationships between health behaviours that were not supportive of healthy weight and to understand the predictive influence of individual and collective behaviour in relation to obesity and the risk of obesity related ill-health in military personnel. The investigation used a health behaviour questionnaire to assess health behaviours that might influence weight status. Final analysis of this highly active population suggested, restrained eating, food preparation in the working week, injury status, age, sedentary behaviour, leisure-time physical activity engagement and type of motivation for exercise were the most significant factors. This thesis highlights the lack of knowledge, and gives evidence to support the impact of obesity on individual health and collective occupational capability. Obesity is a complex multifaceted disease where no single causal route predominates. However, the identification of potential causal and predictive relationships will aid in the prevention and treatment of obesity in the British Army.
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Charlebois, Michael A. Pecha Keith E. "Historical analysis of the Battle of LIttle Bighorn utilizing the Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS /." Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2004. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/04Jun%5FCharlebois%5FPecha.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.A. in Defense Analysis Special Operations/Low Intensity Conflict)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2004.<br>Thesis advisor(s): Gordon McCormick, Bard Mansager. Includes bibliographical references (p. 119-120). Also available online.
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Peterson, Joseph S. "Exploiting tribal networks through conflict." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2006. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/06Sep%5FPeterson.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2006.<br>Thesis Advisor(s): Anna Simons. "September 2006." Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-68). Also available in print.
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di, Montenegro Tristan X. "China's Interest in Africa: Conflict or Stability?" FIU Digital Commons, 2017. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3184.
Full textAbstract:
China’s increase in economic and military force projection capability has grown substantially since the beginning of the twenty-first century. This rapid evolution, has in turn, triggered a rush for resources in Least Developed Countries, opened up new markets for Chinese-manufactured products, and has frequently been accompanied by an increased Chinese military presence in those nations in which it maintains an economic or industrial presence.
The PRC’s activities in Least Developed Countries, such as those in Africa, have had a direct impact on cultures, regional politics, economies, infrastructure creation, and the environment, yet the complexity of these dynamics has to date precluded an in-depth analysis of their effect on conflict and stability. In order to effectively gauge China’s influence on the continent, localized studies of Chinese operations and activities in different locales were scrutinized.
China’s Interest in Africa: Conflict or Stability? examines Chinese infrastructure and financing packages, Chinese-owned extractive and non-extractive industries, Chinese military and defense industrial enterprises, and finally, Chinese military activities on the continent. In order to determine whether Chinese loans, infrastructure creation, and resource extraction operations contribute to development in Africa, this work examines case studies from diverse locales, which include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Mozambique, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, and Angola.
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Ruhunga, Sam. "Military integration as a factor for post-conflict stability and reconciliation Rwanda, 1994-2005." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2006. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/06Sep%5FRuhunga.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
Thesis (M.S. in Security Studies (Stabilization and Reconstruction))--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2006.<br>Thesis Advisor(s): Douglas Porch, Jessica Piombo. "September 2006." Includes bibliographical references (p. 81-86). Also available in print.
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Grimes, Jayne. "The self in conflict : securing a sense of self in military and civilian contexts." Thesis, City University London, 2012. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/2121/.
Full textAbstract:
The ex-Services population is estimated to make up between 3.5% to 10% of the prison population according to the Defence Analytic Services Agency (DASA, 2010) .and National Association for Probation Officers (NAPO, 2008). Soldiers are believed to make up the largest occupational group in the prison system, numbering at least 8,500 (NAPO). Many ambiguities exist around how the Services experience may impact upon personnel and potentially on subsequent offending behaviour. In my view there is limited research which addresses the issue directly and discussions have tended to focus on the same constructs, generally considered through quantitative methodologies. Given the high numbers of personnel returning from on- going conflicts in the Middle East it is important that a new perspective be offered to the conversation. In my view this population themselves are best placed to do this. Ten male ex-Services personnel have been interviewed, within a qualitative research design and a grounded theory methodology has been used with the aim of giving a 'voice' to the men themselves. Drawing from a situational interactionist influence a theoretical framework is proposed which addresses. the interaction between these men and their context, situational demands they perceived and the strategies they evolved to meet them. Challenges are addressed and strategies developed in the realms of interpersonal relationships, time and space, military action and emotions which helped them to survive on a number of levels. These are represented by four core categories: Securing the Self, Structuring the Self, Defining the Self and Expressing the Self. I propose that the men evolved these adaptive strategies over time in the Services and to varying degrees carried them into civilian life and in some cases into their offending behaviour. The proposed ideas are discussed with regards to how they complement existing theory and a case study is presented to suggest how they might be applied in clinical practice.