Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Post-Keynesian and Classical Economics'

A principal purpose of this thesis is to present an economic evaluation of ecosystems. The concept of ecosystem health is adopted to ascertain the status of ecosystems. Ecosystem health is considered in part an economic concept and defined as a function of utility through the ecosystem services that satisfy various needs, subject to preserving the integrity of the adaptive cycle. In order to quantify the utility supplied by ecosystem services the novel utility index Ecosystem Outcome Protection Year (ECOPY) is developed. By forming this index, an evaluation can be performed using cost utility analysis, which avoids monetizing these benefits. An attempt is made to ascertain an appropriate approach for ecosystem management. It is reasoned that expert intuition can determine some kind of macro-regularities in ecosystems despite their complex dynamics. Hence, these inferences could be used for ecosystem management. Adaptive co-management is introduced as a means to bring about the collaboration of experts as resource co-managers. The concept of informed intuition is developed to bring about a systematic approach to learning and evaluation where the mental models of experts are transcribed using fuzzy cognitive mapping. However, it is argued that ecosystems as complex adaptive systems are non-ergodic and full of surprises. Accordingly, abduction, the logic of creative conjecture is systematically developed, for the purposes of maintaining mental model flexibility. This systematic application of abduction with an informed intuition forms the proposed abductive process of research, which is grounded in Shacklean potential surprise, a non-probabilistic function. To demonstrate this novel research process, a post-classical economic evaluation of Te Waihora lake ecosystem is undertaken, which employs the ECOPY index and potential surprise method. This empirical case study reveals various cost-effective management actions for improving lake health, which went beyond the intuitions of resource co-managers. This indicated the potential of the approach, which is considered a significant contribution for the methodological development of ecosystem management.

The choice of exogenous variables is a fundamental element for the logical structure of economic models, leading to different positive and normative implications about growth, distribution and economic policies. In this dissertation a comparative approach is used both to study different models from a theoretical point of view and to analyze the link between the financial and the real sector of the economy. In the first chapter we present a comparison between the neoclassical model and the alternative approach, drawn from the classical and post-keynesian literature, within a common mathematical framework based on the Solow growth model. Several variations in the canonical models are considered. We shall show in a convenient analytical framework how the fundamental differences between the two paradigms ultimately lie in the choice of the exogenous variables: factors endowments in the neoclassical approach or effective demand and, in some cases, income distribution in the alternative approach. In the second chapter, we adopt a comparative approach to interpret stock market dynamics, pursuing two objectives. First, we shall show how the prevailing interpretation of Shiller tests on stock price volatility can all be traced back to the neoclassical model, which makes them exposed to several criticisms. Second, we shall present an alternative macroeconomic model drawn from Sraffian and Keynesian literature which suggests a different interpretation of the empirical evidence on stock market volatility. In the third chapter we propose an integration between the classical-Keynesian model and the monetary circuit framework, evaluating its consistency and its policy implications. In particular, we shall verify whether the Keynesian multiplier can be consistently introduced in the monetary circuit framework, how monetary authorities can affect economic dynamics, how monetary circuits are intertemporally linked to each other and how the problem of interest repayments can be solved.

Post Keynesian Economics (PKE) is at a cross road. The academic climate at universities has become more hostile to survival and the mainstream has become more diverse internally. Moreover, a heterodox camp of diverse groups of non-mainstream economists is forming. The debate on the future of PKE has so far focussed on the relation to the mainstream. This paper argues that this is not an important issue for the future of PKE. The debate has overlooked the dialectics between academic hegemony and economic (and social) stability. The important question is, whether PKE offers useful explanations of the ongoing socio-economic transformation. PKE has generated valuable insights but it offers little on important real world phenomena such as supply-side phenomena like the increasing use of ICT and the globalisation of production, social issues like precarisation and the polarization of income distribution or ecological challenges like climate change. It is these issues that will decide the future of PKE. (author´s abstract)
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The NAIRU theory has become the mainstream theory in explaining unemployment in Europe and is often used to justify demands for a cutback of the welfare state, reducing unemployment benefits, reducing minimum wages, decentralizing collective bargaining etc. Close inspection reveals that it nonetheless shares some arguments with Post Keynesian and even Marxist theory. The paper proposes an underdetermined, encompassing NAIRU model, which is consistent with several theoretical tradtions. Depending on the closure with respect to demand formation and determination of the NAIRU itself, the model allows for New Keynesian, Post Keynesian and Marxist results. (author's abstract)
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The history of dissent in economics has thus far been subject to scant interest. The existing scholarship, authored by dissenters probing their own past, has failed to address the crucial questions of how dissent emerged and rooted itself. This study is about two dissenting communities, Radical Political Economics and Post Keynesian Economics. I review the circumstances that led to their emergence in the late 1960s and early 1970s. I draw from the histories of religious and scientific dissent to explore the making of the dissenters' challenge to the economics orthodoxy. Notably, I use the concept of boundary work to analyse the debates between dissenters and mainstream. The history of Radical Political Economics begins with the founding in 1968 of the Union for Radical Political Economics. Onto this Union converged a generation of young radicalised academics that sought to unite their political interests and their scholarly pursuits. After a period devoted to the design of a "paradigm of conflict," radicals turned to outreach work with popular movements. The new commitment brought divisive political identities into their Union that barred any agreement on a programme to transform economics. Post Keynesian Economics emerged in the aftermath of debates on capital theory between Cambridge left Keynesians and neoclassical economists. With the conviction that the debates signalled the emergence of a new theory in economics, American dissenters decided to ally with the Cambridge critics. The content of the alliance was redefined many times in the 1970s by a succession of spokespersons for the group. Of this period resulted a weakly bound community joined by a sense of shared ancestry. The two case studies reveal the diverse resources and allies that dissenters mustered for their battle with the economics orthodoxy. They show how the dissenters' challenge shaped the boundaries of their communities and the content of their identity.

This paper presents a post-Keynesian ecological macro model that combines three strands of literature: the directed technological change mechanism developed in mainstream endogenous growth theory models, the ecological economic literature which highlights the role of green innovation and material flows, and the post-Keynesian school which provides a framework to deal with the demand side of the economy, financial flows, and inter- and intra-sectoral behavioral interactions. The model is stock-flow consistent and introduces research and development (R&D) as a component of GDP funded by private firm investment and public expenditure. The economy uses three complimentary inputs - Labor, Capital, and (non-renewable) Resources. Input productivities depend on R&D expenditures, which are determined by relative changes in their respective prices. Two policy experiments are tested; a Resource tax increase, and an increase in the share of public R&D on Resources. Model results show that policy instruments that are continually increased over a long-time horizon have better chances of achieving a "green" transition than one-of climate policy shocks to the system, that primarily have a short-run affect.
Series: Ecological Economic Papers

This thesis analyzes the transmission process that generates and links credit, money and economic activity as proposed by Post-Keynesian authors. These authors include mainly Chick, Davidson, Minsky and Wojnilower, who base their hypotheses on the collected works of Keynes and Kalecki. Their key contribution is to identify the cause of the transmission mechanism with the deficit spending of private economic units that is financed by credit that is created by financial intermediaries. The framework used by these authors assumes uncertainty, speculation and instability that have resulted in the formation of institutions such as money, contracts and intermediaries. It is shown that a consistent framework integrates the processes, channels, order and vehicles of the Post-Keynesian mechanism.

This thesis presents a theoretical framework for understanding the long-term behaviour of equity markets. The framework is informed by post-Keynesian theory. It highlights the importance of effective demand for equity valuation - alongside other post-Keynesian features such as a realistic institutional setup, the (in)efficiency of financial markets in pricing assets and the importance of income and wealth distribution for macroeconomic theory. In contrast to mainstream approaches dominated and constrained only by the logic of rational agents, a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) methodology is followed here. The strict accounting rules of SFC models guarantee that all assets, flows and price revaluations that happen in an economic system are booked accordingly, with no accounting 'black holes' in the logical structure. The SFC approach also permits an outcome in which the market value of assets differs from their book value, a crucial distinction that should be at the core of any theory for equity returns. This thesis makes a contribution to the post-Keynesian literature on the Cambridge corporate growth models. It is shown that this literature can be used as a starting point for developing a theory of equity markets with a more realistic institutional setup. The main features of the post-Keynesian theory for equity markets developed here can be summarised as follows. First, aggregate demand determines the return on shares and their valuation in the market. Second, Tobin's q is inversely related to the growth rate of the economy in the long-run and inversely related to the marginal propensities to consume. Third, Tobin's q can be different from 1 even in the long-run. And fourth, wealth holders' consumption decisions are a major driver of the equity yield in the long-run, a feature very similar in spirit to the Levy-Kalecki profit equation, but now applied to financial markets. I conclude that post-Keynesian theory can offer an alternative to mainstream finance and fill a gap in current financial macroeconomic theory.

Le but de cette thèse est d’analyser les effets de court terme de la répartitionfonctionnelle des revenus sur la demande agrégée et ses composants en Corée du Sud,Thaïlande et la Chine dans un cadre postkeynésien. Dans ce but un modèle est proposé etses paramètres sont estimés pour caractériser les régimes de croissance de demande dansces pays. L’analyse économétrique montre que les demandes domestiques de ces payssont tirées par les salaires, sauf Thaïlande dans lequel certaines mesures de la répartitiondes revenus indiquent que l’économie domestique est tirée par les profits, pendant que leséconomies ouvertes sont tirées par les profits. Les résultats décrivent que des politiquesde croissance pro-travaillistes ne sont pas viables au court terme dans ces pays. Cettethèse comprend une revue de la littérature sur les théories de répartition des revenus et decroissance, présente une revue de la littérature sur les travaux empiriques de modèlespostkeynésiennes de croissance et répartition, expose un modèle théorique, elle comprendégalement une analyse du régime de croissance de demande en Corée du Sud, Thaïlandeet la Chine, respectivement. Dernièrement, la thèse discute les défauts du modèle, résumeses résultats et arrive à des conclusions politiques impliquées par le modèle
The aim of this PhD dissertation is to analyze the short-term impact offunctional income distribution on aggregate demand and its components in South Korea,Thailand, and China within a post-Keynesian framework. For this purpose, thedissertation proposes a theoretical model, and estimates its parameters for characterizingdemand regimes in these countries. Econometric analysis shows that domestic economiesof the countries are wage-led except for Thailand, in which some measures of incomedistribution point to a profit-led domestic demand regime, while total economies areprofit-led. The results indicate that pro-labor growth policies are not viable in the shortrun in these countries. The dissertation reviews the theories of income distribution andgrowth, offers a survey of the empirical literature on the post-Keynesian models ofincome distribution and growth, presents the theoretical model proposed, and undertakesan analysis of demand regimes in South Korea, Thailand, and China. Finally, thedissertation addresses the shortcomings of the model, summarizes its findings discussesthe implied policy conclusions

Neither Austrian nor Post Keynesian school is part of contemporary economic mainstream, both schools explain business cycle theory by monetary influences. This thesis examinates, through analysis of these theories, whether there are any other common elements except of the fact that both are monetary theories of business cycle. The key question author tries to answer is if we can describe these theories as substitute or complement. In last part theoretical analysis is enriched by the scale, which reflects substitution or complementary nature of the theories.

The paper investigates the relation between effective demand, income distribution and unemployment empirically. Its aim is to evaluate Keynesian, Kaldorian and neoclassical hypotheses about the determination of labor market variables. To do so, a vector autoregression model consisting of capital accumulation, capacity utilization, the profit share, unemployment and the growth of labor productivity is estimated. A general post-Keynesian model following the lines of Kalecki and Kaldor is presented and provides the specification for a structural VAR. The model is estimated for the USA, UK and France. (authors' abstract)
Series: Working Papers Series "Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness"

The assertion that financial flows are the primary drivers of exchange rates may be considered as financial markets become increasingly large and sophisticated. However, the Post-Keynesian critique leaves little room for the real economy to impact exchange rates. This paper aims to extend the Mundell-Fleming model to address the Post-Keynesian critique of mainstream models, by incorporating wealth effects, expectations, and Taylor-rule interest targeting. Discussion of significant financial events affecting the USDJPY exchange rate finds that wealth effects are significant considerations, and that the real economy cannot be discounted completely. Empirical results find that the real interest rate is a significant factor in exchange rate determination, tying into the discussion over the relationship between savings and consumption.

Ce travail propose une mise en perspective des pratiques de modélisation macroéconomique,depuis les travaux de Robert E. Lucas dans les années 1970 jusqu’aux contributions actuelles de l’approche dite d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique (DSGE). Cette mise en perspective permet de caractériser l’essor des modèles DSGE comme un compromis entre conceptions antagonistes de la modélisation : d’une part, celle de l’approche des cycles réels (RBC) et, d’autre part, celle de la nouvelle économie keynésienne. Pour justifier cette opposition, ce travail propose une reconstruction épistémologique de l’histoire récente de la macroéconomie, à savoir une analyse des différents critères qui définissent la validité et la pertinence d’un modèle. L’hypothèse de travail est qu’on peut identifier, pour chaque pratique de modélisation,trois critères méthodologiques fondamentaux : la validité interne (l’adéquation des hypothèses d’un modèle aux concepts aux formalismes d’une théorie), la validité externe(l’adéquation des hypothèses et/ou des résultats d’un modèle au monde réel, et les procédés quantitatifs pour évaluer cette adéquation) et le critère de hiérarchie (la préférence pour la validité interne sur la validité externe, ou vice versa). Cette grille de lecture, inspirée de la littérature sur les modèles en philosophie des sciences, permet d’apporter quatre contributions originales à l’histoire de la macroéconomie récente. (1) Elle permet de concevoir l’essor des modèles DSGE sans faire appel à l’explication proposée par l’historiographie produite par les macroéconomistes eux-mêmes,à savoir l’existence d’un consensus et d’un progrès technique exogène. Contre cette vision de l’histoire en termes de progrès scientifique, nous mettons en avant les oppositions méthodologiques au sein de la macroéconomie et nous illustrons l’interdépendance entre activité théorique et développement des méthodes statistiques et économétriques. (2) La thèse s’attaque au cloisonnement entre histoire des théories macroéconomiques et histoire des méthodes quantitatives. Grâce à sa perspective méthodologique, ce travail permet d’opérer la jonction entre ces deux littératures et de développer les bases d’une vision globale des transformations récentes de la macroéconomie. (3) La relecture méthodologique de l’histoire de la modélisation permet de mettre en évidence comment la condition de validité externe a représenté le principal point de clivage entre différentes conceptions de la modélisation. La question de la validité externe apparaît par ailleurs intrinsèquement liée à la question de l’explication causale des phénomènes, sur laquelle repose largement la justification de la modélisation comme outil d’expertise des politiques économiques. (4) Ce travail aboutit à une caractérisation originale de l’approche DSGE : loin de constituer une «synthèse» ou un consensus, cette approche s’apparente à un compromis, fragilisé par l’antagonisme méthodologique entre ses parties prenantes
This dissertation provides a history of macroeconomic modeling practices from RobertE. Lucas’s works in the 1970s up to today’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Working from a historical perspective, I suggest that the recent rise of DSGE models should be characterized as a compromise between opposing views of modeling methodology—on the one hand, the real business cycle (RBC) view, on the other hand, the new Keynesian view. In order to justify this claim, my work provides an epistemological reconstruction of the recent history of macroeconomics, building from ananalysis of the criteria defining the validity and the pertinence of a model. My assumption is that recent macroeconomic modeling practices can be described by three distinctive methodological criteria : the internal validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between models’ assumptions and concepts and formalisms of a theory), the external validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between the assumptions and results of a model and the real world, as well as the quantitative methods needed to assess such a consistency) and the hierarchization criterion (which establishes the preference for internal over external validity, or vice versa). This epistemological reconstruction draws primarily from the literature about models in the philosophy of science. My work aims to make four contributions to the history of recent macroeconomics. (1) To understand the rise of DSGE models without referring to the explanation providedby the macroeconomists themselves, who tend to think that macroeconomics evolved through theoretical consensus and exogenous technical progress. By distancing itself fromthis perspective, my work draws attention to the disruptive character of methodological controversies and to the interdependence between theoretical activity and the developmentof statistical and econometric methods. (2) To overcome the existing divide betweenthe history of macroeconomic theories and the history of quantitative methods. Throughits epistemological perspective, my work reconciles these two historiographies and specifiesthe basis for a comprehensive understanding of recent developments in macroeconomics.(3) To put the accent on the external validity condition as the main controversial issue separating different views of macro-modeling methodology. Furthermore, I illustrate how the debate about external validity is closely related to the problem of casual explanation and, finally, to the conditions for providing economic policy evaluation. (4) To characterize the DSGE approach: although DSGE models are often presented as a“synthesis”, or as a “consensus”, they are better described as a shaky compromise between two opposing methodological visions

A presente dissertação tem por objetivo discutir diferentes aspectos de um método de modelagem econômica conhecido por Modelos Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC). Essa classe de modelos tem como principais características a presença de matrizes que representam os balanços patrimoniais dos setores modelados, bem como os fluxos de transações e de fundos financeiros. A primeira etapa do trabalho consiste em analisar as origens dos modelos SFC, apresentando os trabalhos que precederam as primeiras formulações. Em seguida, é feito um survey completo da literatura SFC corrente. Essas duas etapas são realizadas através de uma revisão bibliográfica de artigos, working papers, teses e dissertações. A terceira etapa do trabalho consiste em discutir aspectos metodológicos da modelagem SFC, em especial a modelagem de equações comportamentais de expectativas. Por fim, um modelo SFC é elaborado com o objetivo de analisar o comportamento de uma economia sob quatro regimes fiscais diferentes: (i) balanço equilibrado; (ii) meta de gastos do governo como proporção do PIB; (iii) meta de déficit do governo como proporção do PIB; (iv) meta de dívida pública como proporção do PIB. O comportamento em estado estacionário desses regimes é analisado, bem como sua resiliência a choques. Entre as conclusões, percebeu-se que o segundo regime apresenta a maior taxa de crescimento no steady state, além de ser mais resiliente a choques negativos.
The general goal of this dissertation is to discuss different dimensions of a class of Post-Keynesian models known as Stock-Flow Consistent Models. The main features of these models are: (i) the presence of balance sheets matrices of the sectors to be modeled, guaranteeing the consistency in the economic stocks; (ii) the flow of funds matrix, that records the real and financial transactions of the economy. The first step of the work is to analyze the origins of the SFC models, presenting the works that preceded the first elaborations. Next to it, the current SFC literature is surveyed. These two steps are accomplished by means of a survey of the literature in academic journals, working papers, dissertations and thesis. The third step of the work is a discussion of methodological issues such as the role of expectations in the behavioral functions for consumption. Finally, the fourth step consists of elaborating a SFC model in order to analyze four fiscal policy regimes: (i) balanced budget, (ii) a target for government’s expenditures , (iii) a target for government deficit, and (iv) a target for government debt. The steady state behavior of each regime is analyzed, as well as its resilience to adverse shocks. The second regime is the one with the higher steady state growth rate and also is the more resilient to negative shocks.

Hyman Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis is used to construct two different indices for financial instability: a long-term index (Long Term Financial Instability) and a short-term index (Short Term Financial Instability). The former focuses on the underlying fragility of financial structures of units in the economy while the latter focuses on more immediate developments and manages to follow turmoil – “a financial crisis” – in the economy. The interplay of the indices with each other, with economic growth and with Foreign Direct Investment, both in general and in the financial industry, is probed. In short, we find that long term financial stability, i.e. secure financial structures in the economy or a low level of Long Term Financial Instability, is sacrificed for maintaining short term financial stability. However, more Long Term Financial Instability is associated, as Minsky expected, with more fluctuations in Short Term Financial Instability: market turmoil is more common the more fragile underlying financial structures of units in the economy are. This signals that markets are ruled by short-termism. Economic growth is harmed by Short Term Financial Instability but the effects of Long Term Financial Instability are weaker. The common expectation that FDI activities strengthen financial stability is not confirmed. The relationship found hints rather in the opposite direction: FDI activities seem to cause financial instability. Based on the those investigations and a further empirical work using data from Iceland, Leigh Harkness’s Optimum Exchange Rate System (OERS) is developed further with the intention of solving “The Policy Problem” as described by Minsky. Insights from control theory are used. The OERS, along with public debt management as carried out by Keynes, is argued to have the ability to keep economic activity in the state of a permanent “quasi-boom”. The policy implications are that the OERS should be considered as a monetary policy as it permits a free flow of capital, thereby allowing economies to reap the possible positive benefits of foreign direct investment, while still conserving financial stability.

The paper builds on the Marxist concept of exploitation to explore the meaning of the Post Keynesian notion of uncertainty. Uncertainty is mediated by institutions and is distributed unevenly among different social groups. As different historical social formations entail different institutional structures, the distribution and nature of uncertainty also differ. The configurations between class relations and uncertainty are analyzed for the capitalist, feudal and slave modes of production. It is demonstrated that modes of production do not only imply specific exploitative relations but also different relative distributions of uncertainty amongst classes. Joining Marxian and Post Keynesian approaches allows a richer understanding of exploitive relations and illuminates the full societal impact of uncertainty. It is shown that only in capitalism is the exploited class exposed to a substantial degree of economic uncertainty. (author's abstract)
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
Esta dissertação tem como propósito o estudo da relação de longo-prazo entre o desemprego, a acumulação de capital e as variáveis do mercado de trabalho em Portugal, entre o 1º trimestre de 1985 e o 4º trimestre de 2013. É utilizado o modelo ARDL-Bounds Test para realizar a estimação econométrica. A evidência encontrada sugere que a acumulação de capital foi o principal determinante da taxa de desemprego de longo-prazo (NAIRU), ao passo que as variáveis do mercado de trabalho têm um poder explicativo residual ou inexistente. Estes resultados sugerem que a NAIRU é endógena em relação à acumulação de capital. Com efeito, conclui-se que as reformas no mercado de trabalho propostas pela Troika foram inadequadas para o caso português, uma vez que foram baseadas num enquadramento teórico (a teoria da NAIRU exógena) não representativo do mercado de trabalho desse país.
The aim of this dissertation is to study the long-run relationship between unemployment, capital accumulation and labour market variables in Portugal for the 1985Q1-2013Q4 period. We use an ARDL-bounds test model to perform the econometric estimation. We find evidence that capital accumulation has been the main driver of long-run unemployment (NAIRU), whilst labour market variables have played either a negligible or an existent explicative role. It suggests that Portuguese NAIRU is endogenous relative to capital accumulation. Consequently, we conclude that the labour market reforms proposed by Troika were inadequate to the Portuguese case as they were based upon a theoretical framework (exogenous NAIRU model) that was not representative of the Portuguese labour market.

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
O objetivo desta dissertação de mestrado é estudar a relação de longo prazo entre a distribuição funcional e interpessoal do rendimento e o crescimento do PIB em Portugal para o período entre 1985 e 2016. O modelo econométrico escolhido é ARDL-bounds test. Há evidências de que a transferência de rendimento do fator capital para o fator trabalho tem efeitos positivos no crescimento de longo prazo de Portugal. O aumento nos rendimentos de topo (TOP 0,01%) também tem efeitos positivos, mas menores no crescimento de longo prazo. As razões invocadas para o aumento do peso do profit share são essencialmente as mesmas que o aumento dos rendimentos de topo. Conclui-se que os governos devem concentrar-se em medidas para aumentar o wage share e, consequentemente, propiciarão a aceleração do crescimento económico de longo prazo.
The objective of this master's thesis is to study the long-term relationship between the interpersonal and functional distribution of income and GDP growth in Portugal for the period between 1985 and 2016.The econometric model chosen is the ARDL-bounds test.There is evidence that the transfer of income from the capital to the labor factor has positive effects on the long term growth of Portugal. The increase in top yields (TOP 0,01%) also have positive but smaller effects.As the reasons given for the increase in the weight of profit share are essentially the same as the increase in top income, it is concluded that governments should be focused on measures to increase wage share and consequently reduce income inequality, having positive long-term economic growth effects.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The thesis deals with monetary disequilibrium in the theory of endogenous money. In the new consensus economics, money is endogenous and passive. Money market is not considered and if yes, then only in an implicit equilibrium, whereas mechanisms ensuring this equilibrium are not discussed. In post-Keynesian economics, there is an explicit discussion, whether monetary disequilibrium may occur. Horizontalists argued for equality of money supply and money demand. On the other hand, arguments of some structuralists based on an independent demand for money function show that monetary disequilibrium may occur. The thesis therefore analyses mechanisms ensuring equilibrium in the money market. The only mechanism among them which enables the passivity of money is the reflux mechanism. However, it can not be regarded as universal since not all economic subjects which create demand for money are in debt to the banking system. For that reason accommodation of some factors of money demand function is necessary and money is endogenous and active. Econometric tests studying independent money demand and the consequent possibility of monetary disequilibrium based on Granger causality tests seem to be methodologically problematic and showing mixed results. Monetary disequilibrium can not be ruled out. Contemporary monetary policy based mainly on new consensus approach thus omits one channel of monetary policy transmission. Theoretical analysis suggests that monetary equilibrium has to be (at least partly) restored through changes in factors of money demand, which can lead to changes of other macroeconomic variables including inflation.

The submitted thesis is composed of three different articles dealing with issues of financial innovation, credit constraints, and their impact on welfare. The first article treats the contemporary theoretical grasp of the interaction between the financial and real economies, focusing primarily on the role of modern financial innovation in the business cycle. For this purpose, a framework promoted by the Regulation School and Post Keynesians is frequently employed, whilst some other unorthodox streams and mainstream economics are partially discussed as well. All of them aspire -- either per se or under the pressure of the contemporary economic agenda -- to clarify the evolution of financial innovation and credit in the recent era. It is generally found that certain consensus across the schools of economic thought exists, but some of them have done a better job in predicting the consequences of the financial innovation for real economic activity than others. Further, two dynamic macroeconomic models are developed in order to, inter alia, identify the possible effects of extended credit availability presented in the former article on the example of the housing market, and simulate the effects of housing price changes on general welfare. Clearly, this part of the thesis exhibits the indirect consequences of financial innovation as, once again, being rather ambiguous: after having partially unleashed the unprecedented credit granting in the economy, impacting interest rates and loan-to-value ratios, with a subsequent impact on housing prices, it has also influenced credit constrained and unconstrained households in a different manner. Based on an analysis of the situation using partial and general equilibrium analytical frameworks, two somewhat different conclusions are drawn up with respect to the occurrence of various shocks in the models. Under the partial equilibrium framework the effects of relaxation of credit constraints are visible and quite straightforward, indicating relatively simple and intuitive relationship between the price appreciation and general welfare. This is primarily perspicuous for the credit constrained households. In the general equilibrium framework, on the other hand, the transitional dynamics of shock proliferation is more transparent and the impact on credit constrained vs. unconstrained households is more ambiguous and much different from the basic intuition used in the article anchored in the partial equilibrium toolbox.

From the time of its first publication, Rosa Luxemburg’s main economic work, The Accumulation of Capital, was heavily criticized. This set a precedent towards the dismissal of her economic theory which has continued almost to the present day. Very recently, however, a stream of literature favourable to Luxemburg has begun to emerge. Commentators in this group have attempted to re-evaluate Luxemburg’s contribution to Marxian economic theory by, among other approaches, attempting to show her as an important precursor to Michal Kalecki. This work operates within this framework. It attempts to further specify the nature of the theoretical relationship between Luxemburg and Kalecki by closely examining and comparing the economic theories of the two thinkers. What such a study reveals, however, is that this relationship is better defined as a one of rupture rather than of continuity. While Kalecki seems to accept the basic structure of Luxemburg’s argument, he modifies and qualifies it in so many respects as to make it almost unrecognizable. But such a divergence between the theories is hardly surprising if we view them in their proper historical contexts. The differing empirical, personal and political backgrounds from which the theories emerged is what would have led to the development of the divergent elements within them. Such substantial differences in the contexts which gave rise to the respective theories underscore the ill-advised nature of the attempt to draw too strong a link between the economic thought of Luxemburg and Kalecki.
Graduate

In this thesis, five dynamic Post-Keynesian corn-credit models are constructed as testbeds for numerical analysis experiments that generate traverse paths through historical time using computer simulation. The "corn-credit economy" is a synthesis of theoretical insights gleaned chiefly from the writings of Joan Robinson, Knut Wicksell, Michal Kalecki, John Maynard Keynes, Gunnar Myrdal, and Adolph Lowe. The first Model A has a fixed corn price, money wage and interest rate. Each such constant is replaced by equations to become a variable in Models B, C and D, respectively, e.g. money expenditure directed at a given supply of foodcorn determines its price. The final Model E uses a conventional demand function for the same purpose. Each 31st December, capitalist-farmers decide the flow of seedcorn invested, then store the balance of that year's harvest as foodcorn. On 1st January, this lagged seedcorn flow becomes the opening stock of seedcorn, which is sown by workers employed to raise the next crop. Likewise, the lagged foodcorn flow becomes the opening stock of foodcorn available for sale to consumers while the new crop is being tended. The workers' fortnightly money wages, together with all profit and interest incomes, are partly saved but mainly spent on foodcorn released weekly from the granaries. The structural-form equation (common to all models) that determines the volume of seedcorn invested is crucial, since the reduced forms show that investment decisions drive the evolution of all other economic variables. In turn, seedcorn invested is itself driven by a time-series of "profitability gaps" between the realised and required rates of return on capital stock, in a process of circular and cumulative causation. A constant "reaction coefficient" determines the rate of capital accumulation as a fraction of the profitability gap. Such positive feedback or path dependence is so pronounced in the complex structural form of Model E that no reduced form can be derived. All models are solved numerically for a 100-year equilibrium stationary state, then a smooth exponential growth path is generated for all but Model E. These stationary and steady states are used as reference time paths or "basecases", from which specimen traverse paths are made to depart by perturbing the model's parameters. A sensitivity matrix is constructed for Model E by initiating numerous convergent traverses connecting its initial with a final stationary state. This matrix shows the long-period effect of a change in each parameter upon every endogenous variable. By tracing "chains of causation" made visible by the matrix, these cause-effect elasticities confirm that Keynes's paradox of thrift and Rowthorn's paradox of costs operate in Model E. The most powerful parameters are the foodcorn demand elasticities, indicating a strong influence of sovereign consumers on the price, profitability and production of corn. Certain key variable-pairs are scatter-plotted to see whether some conventional relationships used for comparative static analysis hold over the range of reaction coefficient values defining a viable corn-credit economy. Instead of the familiar curves, these scatter-plots reveal a sequence of well-defined patterns, resembling the evolution of a spiral galaxy such as our own Milky Way. Due to the observed traverse behaviour of Model E being quite violent, a public sector is added and the modified Model E* is used to discover a policy mix that tames the laisser faire instability of a demographic shift from zero to positive workforce growth. This policy-constrained or "instrumental traverse", as defined by Adolph Lowe, successfully guides the economy onto a tranquil steady-state growth path with near-full employment.

The theoretical foundations of the Post Keynesian view of money are examined, including the nature of money, role of uncertainty and time, and the use of equilibrium concepts. This provides a backdrop against which the Post Keynesian analysis of interest rates, investment behaviour: inflation and demand determination is presented in a framework of non-neutral money and Keynes' principle of effective demand. A model of the Post Keynesian theory of money is presented, with arguments as to why the IS/LM model of the neoclassical synthesis is considered deficient. The money supply endogeneity view is explored, together with Keynes' finance motive. The open economy case is considered, with emphasis on a small open economy. The monetary policy perspectives of the Post Keynesian camp are examined. The implications for South Africa are considered in respect of money supply targeting, interest rate policy, anti-inflation measures, public debt management, exchange rates and Reserve Bank objectives.
Economics
M.A. (Economics)

Research Doctorate - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
This thesis is an attempt to build a dynamic, long run, Stock-Flow Consistent, Post Keynesian model of the Global Financial Crisis and Secular Stagnation. While multiple New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models of these historic phenomena already exist, these models are built on theoretical foundations which have been rejected by Post Keynesians because of their inadequacy. The Sraffian Supermultiplier has been chosen as the theoretical framework, isolating parts of the economy generating instability from the parts which may set the trend in the long run. The model uses a continuous-time framework and is expressed as a differential-algebraic system of equations. It is simulated using an Open Source package OpenModelica which is widely used in empirical and technical sciences for simulating dynamic systems. While not calibrated by regression, and more theoretical than econometric, it nevertheless reproduces multiple macroeconomic phenomena and stylised facts which have puzzled mainstream economists. This research is an attempt to advance the macroeconomic modelling methodology and contribute to understanding macroeconomic processes by demonstrating how complex phenomena can emerge when simple parts of the economy interact. The understanding is based on sound macroeconomic theories built by Marx, Keynes, Kalecki, Sraffa and contemporary Post Keynesian economists.

The phenomenal financial expansion of the last decades has been characterised by an exacerbation of systemic instability and an increase in the frequency of financial crises, culminating in the recent meltdown in the US financial sector. The literature on financial crises has developed concomitantly, but despite a large number of papers written on this subject, economists are still struggling to understand the underlying determinants of these phenomena. In this dissertation, I argue that one of the reasons for this apparent failure is the way agents, as well as the environment in which they evolve, are modelled in this literature. After reviewing the existing literature on international financial crises, I outline an alternative framework, drawing from Post-Keynesian and Behavioural insights. In this framework, international financial crises are seen as being a direct consequence of the way agents formulate expectations in an environment of fundamental uncertainty and the investment and financial decisions they subsequently take. I argue that the psychological heuristics agents use in formulating expectations under fundamental uncertainty can lead to decisions which fragilise the economy and can thus be conducive to financial crises. I then apply this framework to the study of the 2000-2001 financial crisis in Turkey, which is notorious for not lending itself easily to explanations based on the existing theoretical literature on international financial crises. After outlining the crisis and reviewing the main existing accounts, I identify two moments prior to the crisis: A phase of increasing financial fragility, lasting from a previous crisis in 1994 to 1999, and a financial bubble in 2000 during the implementation of an IMF stabilisation program, partly predicated on the previous increase in financial fragility. My framework can account for both periods; it fits particularly well the first one and enhances the explanatory content of existing stories about the events that took place in 2000.

This thesis examines the relationship of monetary policy and investment in a theoretical framework in which monetary and real economic forces are intrinsically interlinked. The full shift from a money, real dichotomy in historical economic thought to the notion of money being an essential determinant of economic outcomes is traced to the work of Keynes, partly in the Treatise (1930), but more completely in the General Theory (1936). The treatment of monetary forces in economic growth models is examined. It is found that the money, investment relationship, with close money, real interaction, is appropriately pursued in the approach to monetary theory adopted by those who could broadly be characterised as Post Keynesian. The operation of monetary forces through the banking system is examined using this theoretical backdrop. A symbolic model is developed of the influence channels implied by the theoretical analysis, using the South African monetary system as the specific focus. The symbolic model is expressed in a form which enables empirical examination. South African data are compiled and used to determine the nature and statistical significance of hypothesised relationships. The implications of the theoretical analysis and empirical examination are drawn out both for monetary theory within the Post Keynesian mould, and for the conduct of monetary policy, in South Africa in particular.
Economics
D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)