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1
Karlsson, Victor, Rikard Svensson, and Viktor Eklöf. "Contingent Hedging : Applying Financial Portfolio Theory on Product Portfolios." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Företagsekonomi, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-18602.
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In an ever-changing global environment, the ability to adapt to the current economic climate is essential for a company to prosper and survive. Numerous previous re- search state that better risk management and low overall risks will lead to a higher firm value. The purpose of this study is to examine if portfolio theory, made for fi- nancial portfolios, can be used to compose product portfolios in order to minimize risk and optimize returns. The term contingent hedge is defined as an optimal portfolio that can be identified today, that in the future will yield a stable stream of returns at a low level of risk. For companies that might engage in costly hedging activities on the futures market, the benefits of creat- ing a contingent hedge are several. These include creating an optimized portfolio that minimizes risk and avoid trading contracts on futures markets that would incur hefty transaction costs and risks. Using quantitative financial models, product portfolio compositions are generated and compared with the returns and risks profile of individual commodities, as well as the actual product portfolio compositions of publicly traded mining companies. Us- ing Modern Portfolio Theory an efficient frontier is generated, yielding two inde- pendent portfolios, the minimum risk portfolio and the tangency portfolio. The Black-Litterman model is also used to generate yet another portfolio using a Bayesian approach. The portfolios are generated by historic time-series data and compared with the actual future development of commodities; the portfolios are then analyzed and compared. The results indicate that the minimum risk portfolio provides a signif- icantly lower risk than the compositions of all mining companies in the study, as well as the risks of individual commodities. This in turn will lead to several benefits for company management and the firm’s shareholders that are discussed throughout the study. However, as for a return-optimizing portfolio, no significant results can be found. Furthermore, the analysis suggests a series of improvements that could potentially yield an even greater result. The recommendation is that mining companies can use the methods discussed throughout this study as a way to generate a costless contin- gent hedge, rather than engage in hedging activities on futures markets.
2
Baur, Cordula. "Risk Estimation in Portfolio Theory." St. Gallen, 2007. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/05609706001/$FILE/05609706001.pdf.
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Raubenheimer, Heidi. "Contributions to modern portfolio theory." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/9741.
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Includes bibliographical references.Fund managers and investors are confronted with the problem of selecting a single investment portfolio from a large number of possible combinations of available assets. In South Africa the set of possible portfolios has become even larger with the gradual relaxing of the constraints on foreign investment from 1995 to the present day, thereby expanding the investment universe for South African investors. Moreover, portfolio selection in South Africa is being transformed increasingly from being the exclusive domain of high net worth individuals, trustees and their investment managers to being the domain and responsibility of the man on the street. The Unit Trust industry started in South Africa in 1965 and gave the lower net worth individual a vehicle with which to invest in a diverse investment portfolio. This industry has proved very popular and has expanded from only 8 funds in 1980 to 338 funds and 136 billion rands under management in November 2000. Moreover the past two years, 1999 and 2000, has seen a change in the pension fund industry from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) pension funds, transferring more of the risk and the responsibility of portfolio selection onto pension fund members. With increasing demand for fund management and investment advice by pension fund members and individual investors alike, the financial services industry in South Africa has also expanded. The consequent competition for assets of all descriptions have led, one hopes, to a more efficient market in equity, fixed income and derivative products. Thus modern portfolio theory has come a long way and will have to go further in meeting the demand to assist investors in their decision making.
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Gökkent, Giyas M. "Theory of foreign portfolio investment." FIU Digital Commons, 1997. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3986.
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Sati, Leila. "Estimation and Test Theory of Optimal Portfolios : Evidence from the International Portfolio." Thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-67987.
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Hamrin, Erik. "A Heuristic Downside Risk Approach to Real Estate Portfolio Structuring : a Comparison Between Modern Portfolio Theory and Post Modern Portfolio Theory." Thesis, KTH, Bygg- och fastighetsekonomi, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-89812.
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Portfolio diversification has been a subject frequently addressed since the publications of Markowitz in 1952 and 1959. However, the Modern Portfolio Theory and its mean variance framework have been criticized. The critiques refer to the assumptions that return distributions are normally distributed and the symmetric definition of risk. This paper elaborates on these short comings and applies a heuristic downside risk approach to avoid the pitfalls inherent in the mean variance framework. The result of the downside risk approach is compared and contrasted with the result of the mean variance framework. The return data refers to the real estate sector in Sweden and diversification is reached through property type and geographical location. The result reveals that diversification is reached differently between the two approaches. The downside risk measure applied here frequently diversifies successfully with use of fewer proxies. The efficient portfolios derived also reveals that the downside risk approach would have contributed to a historically higher average total return. This paper outlines a framework for portfolio diversification, the result is empirical and further research is needed in order to grasp the potential of the downside risk measures.
7
Persson, Jakob, Carl Lejon, and Kristian Kierkegaard. "Practical Application of Modern Portfolio Theory." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Accounting and Finance, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-657.
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There are several authors Markowitz (1991), Elton and Gruber (1997) that discuss the main issues that an investor faces when investing, for example how to allocate resources among the variety of different securities. These issues have led to the discussion of portfolio theories, especially the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which is developed by Nobel Prize awarded economist Harry Markowitz. This theory is the philosophical opposite of tradi-tional asset picking.
The purpose of this thesis is to investigate if an investor can apply MPT in order to achieve a higher return than investing in an index portfolio. Combining a strong portfolio that beats the market in the longrun would be the ultimate goal for most investors.
The theories that are used to analyze the problem and the empirical findings provide the essential concepts such as standard deviation, risk and return of the portfolio. Further, diversification, correlation and covariance are used to achieve the optimal risky portfolio. There will be a walk-through of the MPT, with the efficient frontier as the graphical guide to express the optimal risky portfolio.
The methodology constitutes as the frame for the thesis. The quantitative method is used since the data input is gathered from historical data. This thesis is based on existing theories, and the deductive approach aims to use these theories in order to accomplish a valid and accurate analysis. The benchmark that is used to compare the results from the portfolio is the Stockholm stock exchange OMX 30. This index mimics and reflects the market as a whole. The portfolio will be reweighed at a preplanned schedule, each quarter to constantly obtain an optimal risky portfolio.
The finding from this study indicates that the actively managed portfolio outperforms the passive benchmark during the selected timeframe. The outcome someway differs when evaluating the risk adjusted result and becomes less significant. The risk adjusted result does not provide any strong evidence for a greater return than index. Finally, with this finding, the authors can conclude by stating that an actively managed optimal risky portfolio with guidance of the MPT can surpass the OMX 30 within the selected timeframe.
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Dopita, Radim. "Optimalizace portfolia cenných papírů." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-222724.
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This thesis is focused on security portfolio optimalization using the value of stock screener. The theoretical section discusses the basic theory of markets, modern portfolio theory, diversification and the types of risks associated with financial activities, the basic steps to become an investor. The practical part is designed to build optimized stocks portfolio using the value of screening, its feigned purchase on New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), followed by monitoring the evolution rate of the portfolio thus created.
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Sokolova-Maria, Maria. "Risk measure changes and portfolio optimization theory." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/11376.
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Ferretti, Nicola <1998>. "Extreme Value Theory for Portfolio Risk Management." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/21806.
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This paper provides an overview of the role of extreme value theory in risk management as a method for modelling and measuring extreme risks. In particular, it is shown the peaks-over-threshold (POT) model and how this method provides a tool for estimating measures of tail risk like Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall. Further topics of interest, including State-Space model, Block Maxima, Markowitz model and a real data application, are also discussed.
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Gormley, John. "Portfolio of original compositions." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/7072.
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This folio and accompanying commentary draw together my compositional work over the period of the PhD and plot the development and exploration of a number techniques which are to be found in varying degrees in each of the works but with different emphases. These techniques include the use of: parallel structures and metres to provide a sense of independence of compositional ideas; parallel tonal centres within overarching schema to control and draw thematic material together; the use of rhetorical musical gestures that seek to break free of their context; fragmentation and the accumulation of material in terms of quantity and density in order to facilitate a sense of change; the limitation of pitch material in order to create a sense of stasis; and the use of slow sustained melodies that lack a clear pulse in order to create a sense of musical events that are not bound by time.
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Ljungberg, Axel, and Anton Högstedt. "Modern Portfolio Theory Combined With Magic Formula : A study on how Modern Portfolio Theory can improve an established investment strategy." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för ekonomistyrning och logistik (ELO), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-104540.
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This study examines whether modern portfolio theory can be used to improve the Magic Formula investment strategy. With the assets picked by the investment strategy we modify the portfolios by weighting the portfolios in accordance with modern portfolio theory. Through the process of creating efficient frontiers and weighting the portfolios differently we create two alternative portfolios each year. One portfolio that aimsfor maximum Sharpe ratio and one that aims for minimum variance. These weighted portfolios produce higher risk-adjusted returns consistently during the examined period of 2010-2020. We conclude that the Magic Formula can be improved by using modern portfolio theory.
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Clarke, Tanya M. "Financial markets, portfolio theory and the credit crunch." Thesis, University of Southampton, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.286964.
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Koumou, Nettey Boevi Gilles. "Rao's Quadratic Entropy, Risk Management and Portfolio Theory." Doctoral thesis, Université Laval, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/28292.
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Cette thèse porte sur le concept de la diversification et sa mesure en théorie des choix de portefeuille. La diversification est un concept clé en finance et en économique, et est au coeur de la théorie des choix de portefeuille. Elle représente l’un des plus importants outils de gestion du risque. Ainsi, plusieurs mesures de diversification de portefeuille ont été proposées, mais aucune ne s’est révélée totalement satisfaisante et la discipline recherche toujours une approche unifiée et cohérente de mesure et gestion de la diversification. Cette thèse répond à ce besoin et développe une nouvelle classe de mesures de diversification de portefeuille en adaptant à l’économie financière l’entropie quadratique de Rao, une mesure de diversité proposée par Rao et utilisée en statistique, en biodiversité, en écologie et dans plusieurs autres domaines. La thèse démontre que si l’entropie quadratique de Rao est bien calibrée, elle devient une classe valide de mesures de diversification de portefeuille résumant, de manière simple, les caractéristiques complexes de la diversification de portefeuille, et offrant en même temps une théorie unifiée qui englobe de nombreuses contributions antérieures. Ensuite, la thèse présente deux applications de la classe de mesures proposée. La première application s’est intéressée à la stratégie de diversification de portefeuille maximum diversification (MD) développée par Choueifaty and Coignard (2008). Elle propose de nouvelles formulations de cette dernière en se basant sur la classe de mesures proposée. Ces nouvelles formulations permettent de donner un fondement théorique à la stratégie MD et d’améliorer ses performances. La deuxième application s’est intéressée au modèle moyenne-variance de Markowitz (1952). Elle propose une nouvelle formulation de ce dernier en se basant sur la classe de mesures proposée. Cette nouvelle formulation améliore significativement la compréhension du modèle, en particulier le processus de rémunération des actifs. Elle offre également de nouvelles possibilités d’amélioration des performances de ce dernier sans coûts d’implementation supplémentaires.This thesis is about the concept of diversification and its measurement in portfolio theory. Diversification is one of the major components of portfolio theory. It helps to reduce or ultimately to eliminate portfolio risk. Thus, its measurement and management is of fundamental importance in finance and insurance domains as risk measurement and management. Consequently, several measures of portfolio diversification were proposed, each based on a different criterion . Unfortunately, none of them has proven totally satisfactory. All have drawbacks and limited applications. Developing a coherent measure of portfolio diversification is therefore an active research area in investment management. In this thesis, a novel, coherent, general and rigorous theoretical framework to manage and quantify portfolio diversification inspiring from Rao (1982a)’s Quadratic Entropy (RQE), a general approach to measuring diversity, is proposed. More precisely, this thesis demonstrates that when RQE is judiciously calibrated it becomes a valid class of portfolio diversification measures summarizing complex features of portfolio diversification in a simple manner and provides at the same time a unified theory that includes many previous contributions. Next, this thesis presents two applications of the proposed class of portfolio diversification measures. In the first application, new formulations of maximum diversification strategy of Choueifaty and Coignard (2008) is provided based on the proposed class of measures. These new formalizations clarify the investment problem behind the MD strategy, help identify the source of its strong out-of-sample performance relative to other diversified portfolios, and suggest new directions along which its out-of-sample performance can be improved. In the second application, a novel and useful formulation of the mean-variance utility function is provided based on the proposed class of measures. This new formulation significantly improves the mean-variance model understanding, in particular in terms of asset pricing. It also offers new directions along which the mean-variance model can be improved without additional computational costs.
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Šebestíková, Sabina. "Optimalizace portfolia akcií na čs. kapitálovém trhu." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-264840.
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The master's thesis is focused on Stock portfolio optimalization on Czech capital market. The analysis of each stock, estimation and portfolio optimalization proposal are included. In the practical part the Fundamental analysis is applied. The portfolio optimalization is estemated by portfolio theory which is consist in the relationship between stock price and market trends represents by PX Index and expressing correlation of them by beta coefficient.
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Porage, Chamika. "Sustainability in Portfolio Optimization." Thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-91573.
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Kouch, Richard Banking & Finance Australian School of Business UNSW. "Efficient estimation in portfolio management." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Banking and Finance, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/26943.
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This thesis investigates whether estimating the inputs of the Markowitz (1952) Mean- Variance framework using various econometric techniques leads to improved optimal portfolio allocations at the country, sector and stock levels over a number of time periods. We build upon previous work by using various combinations of conventional and Bayesian expected returns and covariance matrix estimators in a Mean-Variance framework that incorporates a benchmark reference, an allowable deviation range from the benchmark weights and short-selling constraints so as to achieve meaningful and realistic outcomes. We found that models based on the classical maximum likelihood method performed just as well as the more sophisticated Bayesian return estimators in the study. We also found that the covariance matrix estimators analysed created covariance matrices that were similar to one another and, as a result, did not seem to have a large effect on the overall portfolio allocation. A sensitivity analysis on the level of risk aversion confirmed that the simulation results were robust for the different levels of risk aversion.
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Nelson, Marco. "Information technology portfolio management proof of concept modern portfolio theory with KVA and ROI analysis." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/5148.
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimitedThe basic research question guiding this thesis is: "How can Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) be defensibly applied to DoD Information Technology (IT) portfolio optimization problems?" The research will demonstrate how to derive the appropriate raw performance, volatility data, required to remain consistent with MPT assumptions and methodology. This thesis accomplishes this research objective by establishing a notional IT beta to apply a MPT approach for asset allocation within the Department of Defense (DoD). Data from three previous RFID implementation case studies were used, where the Knowledge Value Added (KVA) methodology was applied to estimate the return on investment (ROI) produced by IT. The KVA methodology is essential for the application of this thesis because it provides the framework for the allocation of surrogate revenue and cost streams into core processes where RFID technology was implemented. The ROI estimates of volatility act as a surrogate for equity price volatility, allowing application of the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) approach in the nonprofit sector.
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Vervuurt, Alexander. "On portfolio construction through functional generation." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2016. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:02f2f6c7-06c9-4f66-905a-20b4576f0b87.
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One of the main research questions in financial mathematics is that of portfolio construction: how should one systematically invest their wealth in a financial market? This problem has been tackled in numerous ways, typically through the modeling of market prices and the optimization of an investment objective. A recent approach to portfolio construction is that offered by Stochastic Portfolio Theory, in which a relatively general market model is assumed, and the portfolio selection criterion is to outperform a benchmark with probability one. In order to achieve this, Robert Fernholz developed the method of functional generation, which allows one to explicitly construct and study portfolios that depend deterministically on the currently observable prices. The typical example of such a strategy is the diversity-weighted portfolio, which we extend in the first chapter of this work with a negative-parameter variation. We show that several modifications of this portfolio outperform the market index in theory, under certain assumptions on the market, and we perform an empirical study that confirms this. In our second chapter, we develop a data-driven portfolio construction method that goes beyond functional generation, allowing for the inclusion of factors other than current prices. We empirically show that this Bayesian nonparametric approach, which utilizes Gaussian processes, leads to drastically improved performance compared to benchmark portfolios. Next, we establish a formal equivalence between the method of functional generation and the mathematical field of optimal transport. Our results fortify known relations between the two, and extend this connection to additive functional generation, a recent variation of the method. In Chapter 4, we apply our results to derive new properties and characterizations of functionally-generated wealth processes in very general market models. Finally, we develop methods for incorporating defaults into functional generation, improving its real-world implementability.
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Anane, Asomani Kwadwo. "Sustainability for Portfolio Optimization." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-44560.
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The 2007-2008 financial crash and the looming climate change and global warming have heightened interest in sustainable investment. But whether the shift is as a result of the financial crash or a desire to preserve the environment, a sustainable investment might be desirable. However, to maintain this interest and to motivate investors in indulging in sustainability, there is the need to show the possibility of yielding positive returns. The main objective of the thesis is to investigate whether the sustainable investment can lead to higher returns. The thesis focuses primarily on incorporating sustainability into Markowitz portfolio optimization. It looks into the essence of sustainability and its impact on companies by comparing different concepts. The analysis is based on the 30 constituent stocks from the Dow Jones industrial average or simply the Dow. The constituents stocks of the Dow, from 2007-12-31 to 2018-12-31 are investigated. The thesis compares the cumulative return of the Dow with the sustainable stocks in the Dow based on their environmental, social and governance (ESG) rating. The results are then compared with the Dow Jones Industrial Average denoted by the symbol (^DJI) which is considered as the benchmark for my analysis. The constituent stocks are then optimized based on the Markowitz mean-variance framework and a conclusion is drawn from the constituent stocks, ESG, environmental, governance and social asset results. It was realized that the portfolio returns for stocks selected based on their environmental and governance ratings were the highest performers. This could be due to the fact that most investors base their investment selection on the environmental and governance performance of companies and the demand for stocks in that category could have gone up over the period, contributing significantly to their performance.
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Lossen, Ulrich. "Portfolio strategies of private equity firms theory and evidence /." Wiesbaden Dt. Univ.-Verl, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8350-9428-4.
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TORRES, RODRIGO CORREA. "PORTFOLIO VALUATION OF ELECTRICITY CONTRACTS: AN OPTIONS THEORY APPROACH." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2006. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=8675@1.
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O Ambiente de Contratação Livre proporcionou uma
continuidade do
processo de livre concorrência de mercado iniciado com a
reestruturação do setor
elétrico em 1997. A mudança de um regime baseado em
contratos de suprimento
renováveis para uma estrutura baseada em preços dados por
um mercado
competitivo, expõe as empresas do setor elétrico
brasileiro à volatilidade do
mercado de eletricidade. Neste novo ambiente, as empresas
devem gerenciar os
riscos associados às suas operações. Devido às
características singulares do setor
elétrico brasileiro, o gerenciamento de risco é um grande
desafio para os próximos
anos. Por outro lado, com a liberdade de negociação
permitida pelo segmento de
comercialização de energia no Ambiente de Contratação
Livre, os contratos de
compra e venda de energia elétrica passaram a adaptar-se
as necessidades de
mercado com a incorporação de flexibilidades que viessem a
mitigar os riscos
com relação à demanda por energia elétrica e
principalmente com relação ao
preço. Dentro desse contexto, foi desenvolvido um modelo
de avaliação de
portfolio de contratos de compra e venda de energia
elétrica, incorporando as
flexibilidades inerentes a atividade de comercialização,
de forma a quantificar os
riscos associados a esta atividade e determinar o valor
adicionado ao portfolio
pelas flexibilidades. O caso estudado é fictício, mas é um
exemplo típico na área
de comercialização de energia elétrica dentro deste novo
modelo.The Free Contracts Environment enabled continuity of the free market competition process which started with the electric sector restructure in 1997. The shift from a regime based on renewable supply contracts to a structure based on prices established by competition exposes companies in the Brazilian electric sector to the volatility of the electricity market. In this new environment companies must manage the risks associated to the operations. The Brazilian electric sector singular features make risk management a great challenge for ensuing years. On the other hand, with free negotiation enabled by the energy trade segment within the free contracts environment, electric energy purchase and sale contracts started to adapt to the market needs incorporating flexibilities designed to face uncertainty regarding electric energy demand in general and prices in particular. Within this context, an electric energy purchase and sale portfolio valuation model was developed, incorporating the flexibilities inherent to commercialization activities, in order to quantify the risks associated with this activity and establish the value added to the portfolio by the flexibilities. The case studied is fictitious, but typical in the field of electric energy trading within this new model.
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Ushan, Wardah. "Portfolio selection using Random Matrix theory and L-Moments." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16921.
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Includes bibliographical referencesMarkowitz's (1952) seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) describes a methodology to construct an optimal portfolio of risky stocks. The constructed portfolio is based on a trade-off between risk and reward, and will depend on the risk- return preferences of the investor. Implementation of MPT requires estimation of the expected returns and variances of each of the stocks, and the associated covariances between them. Historically, the sample mean vector and variance-covariance matrix have been used for this purpose. However, estimation errors result in the optimised portfolios performing poorly out-of-sample. This dissertation considers two approaches to obtaining a more robust estimate of the variance-covariance matrix. The first is Random Matrix Theory (RMT), which compares the eigenvalues of an empirical correlation matrix to those generated from a correlation matrix of purely random returns. Eigenvalues of the random correlation matrix follow the Marcenko-Pastur density, and lie within an upper and lower bound. This range is referred to as the "noise band". Eigenvalues of the empirical correlation matrix falling within the "noise band" are considered to provide no useful information. Thus, RMT proposes that they be filtered out to obtain a cleaned, robust estimate of the correlation and covariance matrices. The second approach uses L-moments, rather than conventional sample moments, to estimate the covariance and correlation matrices. L-moment estimates are more robust to outliers than conventional sample moments, in particular, when sample sizes are small. We use L-moments in conjunction with Random Matrix Theory to construct the minimum variance portfolio. In particular, we consider four strategies corresponding to the four different estimates of the covariance matrix: the L-moments estimate and sample moments estimate, each with and without the incorporation of RMT. We then analyse the performance of each of these strategies in terms of their risk-return characteristics, their performance and their diversification.
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Guimarães, Pedro Henrique Engel. "Three essays on macro-finance: robustness and portfolio theory." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/19926.
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This doctoral thesis is composed of three chapters related to portfolio theory and model uncertainty. The first paper investigates how ambiguity averse agents explain the equity premium puzzle for a large group of countries including both Advanced Economies (AE) and Emerging Markets (EM). In the second article, we develop a general robust allocation framework that is capable of dealing with parametric and non parametric asset allocation models. In the final paper, I investigate portfolio selection criteria and analyze a set of portfolios out of sample performance in terms of Sharpe ratio (SR) and Certainty Equivalent (CEQ)
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Almeida, Serra Costa Vitoria Pedro Miguel. "Topics on forward investment theory." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:158e9239-1385-4314-b337-3eed27c76dfc.
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In this thesis, we study three topics in optimal portfolio selection that are relevant to the theory of forward investment performance processes. In Chapter 1, we develop a connection between the classical mean-variance optimisation and time-monotone forward performance processes for infinitesimal trading times. Namely, we consider consecutive mean-variance problems and we show that, for an appropriate choice of the corresponding mean-variance trade-off coefficients, the wealth process that is generated converges (as the trading interval goes to zero) to the optimal wealth process generated by a time-monotone forward performance process. The choice of the trade-off coefficients is made in accordance to the evolution of the risk tolerance process of the forward performance process. This result allows us to provide a fresh view on the issue of time-consistency of mean-variance analysis, for we propose a method to update mean-variance risk preferences forward in time. As a by-product, our convergence theorem generalises a result by Gyöngy (1998) on the convergence of the Euler scheme for SDEs. We also provide novel results on the Lipschitz regularity of the local risk tolerance function of forward investment performance processes. The material in this chapter is joint work with Marek Musiela and Thaleia Zariphopoulou. Chapter 2 combines forward investment theory and partial information. Specifically, we construct forward investment performance processes in models where the drift is a random variable distributed according to a known distribution. The forward performance processes we consider are of the type U(t,x) = u(t,x, R_t), where R. denotes the process of cumulative excess returns, and u(t,x,z):[0,∞) × ℝ imes ℝN ⟶ ℝ is such that u(t,.,z) is a utility function satisfying Inada's conditions. We derive the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation for u(.). The HJB equation is linearised into the ill-posed heat equation; then, using the multidimensional version of Widder's theorem, we fully characterise the solutions to this equation in terms of a collection of positive measures; the result is an integral representation of the convex conjugate function of u(t,.,z). We construct several examples, and we show how these can be combined, in the dual domain, to generate mixtures of forward investment performance processes. We also show that the volatility of these processes is intrinsic, in that it is not generated by changes of numéraire/measure. In Chapter 3, we provide an extension of the Black-Litterman model to the continuous time setting. Our extension is different from, and complements that of, Frey, Gabih, and Wunderlich (2012) and Davis and Lleo (2013). Specifically, we develop a novel robust estimator of instantaneous expected returns which is continuously shrunk towards the predictions of an asset pricing theory, such as the CAPM. We derive this estimator fairly explicitly and study some of its properties. As in the Black-Litterman model, such an estimator can be used to make optimal asset allocation problems in continuous time more robust with respect to estimation errors. We provide explicit solutions to the problem of maximising expected power utility of terminal wealth, when our estimator is used to estimate the drift. As an example, we illustrate our results explicitly in the case of a multifactor model, where Arbitrage Pricing Theory predicts that alphas should be approximately zero.
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Duggal, Rahul, and Tawfiq Shams. "Modern Portfolio Trading with Commodities." Thesis, Mälardalen University, School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-9990.
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There is a big interest for alternative investment strategies than investing in traditional asset classes. Commodities are having a boom dynamic with increasing prices. This thesis is therefore based on applying Modern Portfolio Theory concept to this alternative asset class.
In this paper we manage to create optimal portfolios of commodities for investors with known and unknown risk preferences. When comparing expected returns to actual returns we found that for the investor with the known risk preference almost replicated the return of the markets. The other investor with unknown risk preference also profited but not as efficient as the market portfolio.
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Pavlic, Theodore P. "Optimal Foraging Theory Revisited." Connect to resource, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1181936683.
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Moos, Daniel. "Continuous Time Finance - Analytical Methods in Asset-Liability Portfolio Theory." St. Gallen, 2005. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/00642512002/$FILE/00642512002.pdf.
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Moosbrucker, Thomas [Verfasser]. "Valuation of Portfolio Credit Derivatives : Theory and Application / Thomas Moosbrucker." Aachen : Shaker, 2007. http://d-nb.info/1170527256/34.
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Walton, Myles Alexander 1975. "Managing uncertainty in space systems conceptual design using portfolio theory." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/8103.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2002.Includes bibliographical references (p. 217-222).
One of the most significant challenges in conceptual design is managing the tradespace of potential architectures-choosing which design to pursue aggressively, which to keep on the table and which to leave behind. This thesis provides a framework for managing a tradespace of architectures not through traditional effectiveness measures like cost and performance, but instead through a quantitative analysis of the embedded uncertainty in each potential space system architecture. Cost and performance in this approach remain central themes in decision making, but uncertainty serves as the focal lense to identify potentially powerful combinations of architectures to explore concurrently in further design phases. Presented is an approach to identify, assess, and quantify uncertainty in space system architectures, as well as a means to manage it using portfolio theory and optimization. Perhaps best known to economists and investors, portfolio theory is based around the objective of maximizing return subject to a decision maker's risk aversion. This simple concept, as well as the theoretical rigor that has evolved the theory to practice, is presented as one means of exploring the tradespace of potential architectures around the central theme of uncertainty. The approach presented relies upon previous work to model space system architectures using simulations that capture attributes of performance and cost. The first step in the approach is an analysis of the tradespace of potential architectures, including the bounding of architectural concepts that will be evaluated and the potential uncertainties and scenarios that will be investigated.
(cont.) The second step is to adjust the simulation models to include sources of uncertainty. The third step is to quantify the impact of the uncertainties on the evaluation criteria for each architecture through propagation techniques. Finally, portfolio theory is incorporated as an approach to manage uncertainty effectively. Illustrative cases present the changing shape of the decision process with uncertainty as a focal point. The three cases, a military space based radar mission, a commercial broadband system, and an scientific observing mission, illustrate the this new approach on tradespace exploration and highlight some of the intuitive and non-intuitive characteristics that can be discovered about the tradespace.
by Myles Alexander Walton.
Ph.D.
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Komaki, Ghorbanmohammad. "PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND RISK DISPERSION BASED ON GEOMETRIC DISPERSION THEORY." Case Western Reserve University School of Graduate Studies / OhioLINK, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=case1512232304419177.
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Jablonský, Petr. "Performance downside risk models of the post-modern portfolio theory." Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-161865.
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The thesis provides a comparison of different portfolio models and tests their performance on the financial markets. Our analysis particularly focuses on comparison of the classical Markowitz modern portfolio theory and the downside risk models of the post-modern portfolio theory. In addition, we consider some alternative portfolio models ending with total eleven models that we test. If the performance of different portfolio models should be evaluated and compared correctly, we must use a measure that is unbiased to any portfolio theory. We suggest solving this issue via a new approach based on the utility theory and utility functions. We introduce the unbiased method for evaluation of the portfolio model performance using the expected utility efficient frontier. We use the asymmetric behavioural utility function to capture the behaviour of the real market investors. The Markowitz model is the leading market practice. We investigate whether there are any circumstances in which some other models might provide better performance than the Markowitz model. Our research is for three reasons unique. First, it provides a comprehensive comparison of broad classes of different portfolio models. Second, we focus on the developed markets in United States and Germany but also on the local emerging markets in Czech Republic and Poland. These local markets have never been tested in such extent before. Third, the empirical testing is based on the broad data set from 2003 to 2012 which enable us to test how different portfolio model perform in different macroeconomic conditions.
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Zhang, Jiangxingyun. "International Portfolio Theory-based Interest Rate Models and EMU Crisis." Thesis, Rennes 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017REN1G011/document.
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L'objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier à côté du risque défaut, le rôle spécifique des risques de volatilité et de co-volatilité dans la formation des taux longs dans la zone euro. On propose en particulier un modèle théorique de choix de portefeuille à deux pays permettant d’évaluer la contribution des primes de risque de volatilité aux processus de contagion et de fuite vers la qualité dans différents épisodes de la crise de la dette souveraine. Ce modèle permet également d’analyser le rôle des achats d’actifs (QE) de la BCE sur l’équilibre des marchés obligataires. Nos tests empiriques suggèrent que les programmes QE de la BCE à partir de mars 2015 n’ont fait qu’accélérer « une défragmentation » des marchés obligataires de la zone euro, apparue plus tôt dans la crise, dès la mise en place de l’OMTThis thesis examines the specific role of volatility risks and co-volatility in the formation of long-term interest rates in the euro area. In particular, a two-country theoretical portfolio choice model is proposed to evaluate the volatility risk premia and their contribution to the contagion and flight to quality processes. This model also provides an opportunity to analyze the ECB's role of asset purchases (QE) on the equilibrium of bond markets. Our empirical tests suggest that the ECB's QE programs from March 2015 have accelerated the "defragmentation" of the euro zone bond markets
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Kucuk, Tuger Hande. "Essays on international portfolio allocation and risk sharing." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2011. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/145/.
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This thesis contributes to the theoretical literature that analyses the link between international asset trade and international risk sharing. Despite the massive increase in cross-border asset trade since the 1990's, consumption risk sharing across countries remains limited. In standard international business cycle models, efficient risk sharing requires that consumption should be higher in the country where it is cheaper to consume, implying a high positive correlation between relative consumption and real exchange rate, which is strongly rejected in the data. Recent contributions show that it is possible to account for this so-called 'consumption-real exchange rate anomaly' in models with goods and financial market frictions where international asset trade is restricted to a single non-contingent bond. Chapter 1 analyses whether this class of models can account for the anomaly under a richer asset market structure where agents can trade in domestic and foreign currency bonds. Even such a small departure from the single bond economy implies too much risk sharing compared to the data although the number of assets that can be traded is less than the number of shocks affecting each economy. Introducing demand shocks alongside sector-specific productivity shocks can improve the performance of the model only under specific parameter and monetary policy settings. Chapter 2 extends this analysis to study the implications of international trade in equities, portfolio transaction costs and recursive utility. Chapter 3 studies the interaction between monetary policy and foreign currency positions in more detail. Different monetary policy regimes can lead to different foreign currency positions by changing the cyclical properties of the nominal ex- change rate. These external positions, in turn, affect the cross-border transmission of monetary policy shocks via a valuation channel. The way export prices are set has important implications for optimal foreign currency positions and the valuation channel when prices are sticky and financial markets are incomplete. Chapter 4 compares the international transmission of uncertainty shocks under alternative asset markets with an emphasis on the behaviour of net foreign assets, exchange rate and currency risk premium and shows that a model with restricted asset trade performs better than a model with complete financial integration in matching certain aspects of the data regarding the dynamics of these variables in response to increased macroeconomic uncertainty.
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Benson, Robert D. "Market models and exposure management in foreign exchange." Thesis, Imperial College London, 1991. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/8659.
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Karamanis, Dimitrios. "Stochastic dynamic programming methods for the portfolio selection problem." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2013. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/724/.
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In this thesis, we study the portfolio selection problem with multiple risky assets, linear transaction costs and a risk measure in a multi-period setting. In particular, we formulate the multi-period portfolio selection problem as a dynamic program and to solve it we construct approximate dynamic programming (ADP) algorithms, where we include Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a measure of risk, for different separable functional approximations of the value functions. We begin with the simple linear approximation which does not capture the nature of the portfolio selection problem since it ignores risk and leads to portfolios of only one asset. To improve it, we impose upper bound constraints on the holdings of the assets and we notice that we have more diversified portfolios. Then, we implement a piecewise linear approximation, for which we construct an update rule for the slopes of the approximate value functions that preserves concavity as well as the number of slopes. Unlike the simple linear approximation, in the piecewise linear approximation we notice that risk affects the composition of the selected portfolios. Further, unlike the linear approximation with upper bounds, here wealth flows naturally from one asset to another leading to diversified portfolios without us needing to impose any additional constraints on how much we can hold in each asset. For comparison, we consider existing portfolio selection methods, both myopic ones such as the equally weighted and a single-period portfolio models, and multi-period ones such as multistage stochastic programming. We perform extensive simulations using real-world equity data to evaluate the performance of all methods and compare all methods to a market Index. Computational results show that the piecewise linear ADP algorithm significantly outperforms the other methods as well as the market and runs in reasonable computational times. Comparative results of all methods are provided and some interesting conclusions are drawn especially when it comes to comparing the piecewise linear ADP algorithms with multistage stochastic programming.
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Mazibas, Murat. "Dynamic portfolio construction and portfolio risk measurement." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10036/3297.
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The research presented in this thesis addresses different aspects of dynamic portfolio construction and portfolio risk measurement. It brings the research on dynamic portfolio optimization, replicating portfolio construction, dynamic portfolio risk measurement and volatility forecast together. The overall aim of this research is threefold. First, it is aimed to examine the portfolio construction and risk measurement performance of a broad set of volatility forecast and portfolio optimization model. Second, in an effort to improve their forecast accuracy and portfolio construction performance, it is aimed to propose new models or new formulations to the available models. Third, in order to enhance the replication performance of hedge fund returns, it is aimed to introduce a replication approach that has the potential to be used in numerous applications, in investment management. In order to achieve these aims, Chapter 2 addresses risk measurement in dynamic portfolio construction. In this chapter, further evidence on the use of multivariate conditional volatility models in hedge fund risk measurement and portfolio allocation is provided by using monthly returns of hedge fund strategy indices for the period 1990 to 2009. Building on Giamouridis and Vrontos (2007), a broad set of multivariate GARCH models, as well as, the simpler exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) estimator of RiskMetrics (1996) are considered. It is found that, while multivariate GARCH models provide some improvements in portfolio performance over static models, they are generally dominated by the EWMA model. In particular, in addition to providing a better risk-adjusted performance, the EWMA model leads to dynamic allocation strategies that have a substantially lower turnover and could therefore be expected to involve lower transaction costs. Moreover, it is shown that these results are robust across the low - volatility and high-volatility sub-periods. Chapter 3 addresses optimization in dynamic portfolio construction. In this chapter, the advantages of introducing alternative optimization frameworks over the mean-variance framework in constructing hedge fund portfolios for a fund of funds. Using monthly return data of hedge fund strategy indices for the period 1990 to 2011, the standard mean-variance approach is compared with approaches based on CVaR, CDaR and Omega, for both conservative and aggressive hedge fund investors. In order to estimate portfolio CVaR, CDaR and Omega, a semi-parametric approach is proposed, in which first the marginal density of each hedge fund index is modelled using extreme value theory and the joint density of hedge fund index returns is constructed using a copula-based approach. Then hedge fund returns from this joint density are simulated in order to compute CVaR, CDaR and Omega. The semi-parametric approach is compared with the standard, non-parametric approach, in which the quantiles of the marginal density of portfolio returns are estimated empirically and used to compute CVaR, CDaR and Omega. Two main findings are reported. The first is that CVaR-, CDaR- and Omega-based optimization offers a significant improvement in terms of risk-adjusted portfolio performance over mean-variance optimization. The second is that, for all three risk measures, semi-parametric estimation of the optimal portfolio offers a very significant improvement over non-parametric estimation. The results are robust to as the choice of target return and the estimation period. Chapter 4 searches for improvements in portfolio risk measurement by addressing volatility forecast. In this chapter, two new univariate Markov regime switching models based on intraday range are introduced. A regime switching conditional volatility model is combined with a robust measure of volatility based on intraday range, in a framework for volatility forecasting. This chapter proposes a one-factor and a two-factor model that combine useful properties of range, regime switching, nonlinear filtration, and GARCH frameworks. Any incremental improvement in the performance of volatility forecasting is searched for by employing regime switching in a conditional volatility setting with enhanced information content on true volatility. Weekly S&P500 index data for 1982-2010 is used. Models are evaluated by using a number of volatility proxies, which approximate true integrated volatility. Forecast performance of the proposed models is compared to renowned return-based and range-based models, namely EWMA of Riskmetrics, hybrid EWMA of Harris and Yilmaz (2009), GARCH of Bollerslev (1988), CARR of Chou (2005), FIGARCH of Baillie et al. (1996) and MRSGARCH of Klaassen (2002). It is found that the proposed models produce more accurate out of sample forecasts, contain more information about true volatility and exhibit similar or better performance when used for value at risk comparison. Chapter 5 searches for improvements in risk measurement for a better dynamic portfolio construction. This chapter proposes multivariate versions of one and two factor MRSACR models introduced in the fourth chapter. In these models, useful properties of regime switching models, nonlinear filtration and range-based estimator are combined with a multivariate setting, based on static and dynamic correlation estimates. In comparing the out-of-sample forecast performance of these models, eminent return and range-based volatility models are employed as benchmark models. A hedge fund portfolio construction is conducted in order to investigate the out-of-sample portfolio performance of the proposed models. Also, the out-of-sample performance of each model is tested by using a number of statistical tests. In particular, a broad range of statistical tests and loss functions are utilized in evaluating the forecast performance of the variance covariance matrix of each portfolio. It is found that, in terms statistical test results, proposed models offer significant improvements in forecasting true volatility process, and, in terms of risk and return criteria employed, proposed models perform better than benchmark models. Proposed models construct hedge fund portfolios with higher risk-adjusted returns, lower tail risks, offer superior risk-return tradeoffs and better active management ratios. However, in most cases these improvements come at the expense of higher portfolio turnover and rebalancing expenses. Chapter 6 addresses the dynamic portfolio construction for a better hedge fund return replication and proposes a new approach. In this chapter, a method for hedge fund replication is proposed that uses a factor-based model supplemented with a series of risk and return constraints that implicitly target all the moments of the hedge fund return distribution. The approach is used to replicate the monthly returns of ten broad hedge fund strategy indices, using long-only positions in ten equity, bond, foreign exchange, and commodity indices, all of which can be traded using liquid, investible instruments such as futures, options and exchange traded funds. In out-of-sample tests, proposed approach provides an improvement over the pure factor-based model, offering a closer match to both the return performance and risk characteristics of the hedge fund strategy indices.
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Scheepers, Deon. "Applications and portfolio theory in the South African agricultural derivatives market." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2005. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-05152008-142000.
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McNeilis, Michael James. "Portfolio of compositions : pitch-class set theory in music and mathematics." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2017. http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3009792/.
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This portfolio contains six scores of contemporary works, one electroacoustic piece submitted in concrete audio format and a critical commentary. Three additional scores are included as appendices, which present alternative arrangements of the acoustic works. An accompanying data DVD includes stereo recordings of a concert performance and four workshop performances, as well as stereo and 5.1 versions of the electroacoustic piece. With existing literature primarily focussing on pitch-class set theory as an analytical tool, this study aims to answer the question: Can set theory be used as the basis of a compositional framework to advance the creative process within the interdisciplinary field of music and mathematics? The pieces in the portfolio consider how set theory can be applied alongside mathematical principles like mutation, symmetry and proportion to inform musical networks and topologies based on material such as the octatonic scale, whole-tone scale and the all-interval tetrachords. A particular emphasis is placed on relationships between pitch-class sets in order to produce coherent compositional designs which link micro-level material to macro-level form and structure. Postcompositional evaluation of each work helps to create subsequent designs in the portfolio, and culminates in the piece Aggregation, which assesses the mathematical principles and compositional techniques developed earlier in the portfolio to encapsulate the research within a unified design and large-scale work. The results of the research establish set theory as a viable mathematical language for both the precompositional and compositional stages of the creative process, and demonstrate refinement of my own compositional methodology and musical style.
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Eterovic, Nicolas. "Applications of random matrix theory to portfolio management and financial networks." Thesis, University of Essex, 2016. http://repository.essex.ac.uk/16644/.
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This thesis is an application of Random Matrix Theory (RMT) to portfolio management and financial networks. From a portfolio management perspective, we apply the RMT approach to clean measurement noise from correlation matrices constructed for large portfolios of stocks of the FTSE 100. We apply this methodology to a number of correlation estimators, i.e., the sample correlation matrix, the Constant Conditional Correlation Model (CCC) of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Model of Engle (2002) and the Regime-Switching Beta CAPM Correlation Model, based on Ang and Bekaert (2004). For these estimators, we find that the RMT- filtering delivers portfolios with the lowest realised risk, the best prediction accuracy and also the highest cumulated returns and Sharpe Ratios. The gains from using the RMT-filtering, in terms of cumulated wealth, range from 65%, for the sample correlation matrix to 30%, for the regime-dependent correlation estimator. In the case of regime switching CAPM models, we find that the regime switching correlation matrices, in the high volatility regime are found to be a good filter which makes further RMT- filtering to be redundant. This establishes the validity of using regime sensitive portfolio management to deal with asymmetric asset correlations during high and low volatility regimes. From a financial network perspective, we assess the stability of a global banking network built from bilateral exposures of 18 BIS reporting banking systems to net debtor countries. For this, we applied the eigen-pair method of Markose (2012), which is based on the work of May (1972, 1974) for random networks. We use a stability condition based on the maximum eigenvalue (λmax) of a matrix of net bilateral exposures relative to equity capital as a systemic risk index (SRI). We provide evidence of the early warning capabilities of λmax, when this surpasses a prespecified threshold. We use the right and left associated eigenvectors as a gauge for systemic importance and systemic vulnerability, respectively. The λmax SRI was found to be superior in terms of early warning when compared to the standard SRIs based on market price data, viz. the DCC-MES of Acharya et al. (2010), the SRISK of Acharya et al. (2012) and the DCC-ΔCoVaR of Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011).
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Wang, Qinghai. "Portfolio trading and information transmission in securities markets : theory and evidence." Connect to resource, 2001. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view.cgi?acc%5Fnum=osu1261316988.
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Iqbal, Javed. "Application of regime switching and random matrix theory for portfolio optimization." Thesis, University of Essex, 2018. http://repository.essex.ac.uk/22633/.
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Market economies have been characterized by boom and bust cycles. Since the seminal work of Hamilton (1989), these large scale fluctuations have been referred to as regime switches. Ang and Bekaert (2002) were the first to consider the role of regime switches for stock market returns and portfolio optimisation. The key stylized facts regarding regime switching for stock index returns is that boom periods with positive mean stock returns are associated with low volatility, while bear markets with negative mean returns have high volatility. The correlation of asset returns also show asymmetry with greater correlation being found during stock market downturns. In view of the large portfolio losses from correlated negative movements in asset returns during the recent 2007 financial crisis, it has become imperative to incorporate regime sensitivity in portfolio management. This thesis forms an extensive application of regime sensitive statistics for stock returns in the management of equity portfolios for different markets. Starting with the application to a small 3 asset portfolio for UK stocks (in Chapter 4), the methodology is extended to large scale portfolio for the FTSE-100. In chapters 5 and 6, respectively, using stock index data from the subcontinent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) and for the Asia Pacific, optimal regime sensitive portfolios have been analysed with the MSCI AC Index (for Emerging and Asia Pacific Markets) being taken as the benchmark index. Portfolio performance has been studied using a dynamic end of month rebalancing of the portfolio on the basis of regime indicators given by market index and relevant regime dependent portfolio statistics. The cumulative end of period returns and risk adjusted Sharpe Ratio from this exercise is compared to the simple Markowitz mean-variance portfolio and market value portfolio. The regime switching optimal portfolio strategy has been found to dominate non-regime sensitive portfolio strategies in Asia Pacific and 3 asset portfolio for UK stocks cases but not in Subcontinent case (for the first half of out-sample period). In the case of the relationship of the sub-continental indexes vis-à-vis the MSCI benchmark index, the latter has negligible explanatory power for the former especially for the first half of out-sample period. Hence, the regime indicators based on MSCI emerging market index have detrimental effects on portfolio selection based on the sub-continental indexes. As regime sensitive variance–covariance matrices have implications for the selection of optimal portfolio weights, the final Chapter 7 uses the FTSE-100 and its constituent company data to compare and contrast the implications for optimal portfolio management of filtering the covariance matrix using Random Matrix Theory (RMT). While it is found that filtering the variance-covariance matrix using Marchenko-Pasteur bounds of RMT improves optimal portfolio choice in both non-regime and regime dependent cases, remarkably in the latter case for Regime 2 determined variance-covariance matrix, the RMT filter was least needed. This result is given in Chapter 7, Table 7.5-1. This confirms the significance of using Hamilton (1989) regime sensitive statistics for stock returns in identifying the ‘true’ non-noisy variance-covariance relationships. The RMT methodology is also useful for identifying the centrality, based on eigenvector analysis, of the constituent stocks in their role in driving crisis and non-crisis market conditions. A fully automated suite of programs in MATLAB have been developed for regime switching portfolio optimization with RMT filtering of the variance-covariance matrix.
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Bauder, David. "Bayesian Inference for High-Dimensional Data with Applications to Portfolio Theory." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/19598.
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Die Gewichte eines Portfolios liegen meist als als Kombination des Produkts der Präzisionsmatrix und des Erwartungswertvektors vor. In der Praxis müssen diese Parameter geschätzt werden, allerdings ist die Beschreibung der damit verbundenen Schätzunsicherheit über eine Verteilung dieses Produktes eine Herausforderung. In dieser Arbeit wird demonstriert, dass ein geeignetes bayesianisches Modell nicht nur zu einer leicht zugänglichen Posteriori-Verteilung führt, sondern auch zu leicht interpretierbaren Beschreibungen des Portfoliorisikos, wie beispielsweise einer Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit des gesamten Portfolios zu jedem Zeitpunkt.
Dazu werden die Parameter mit ihren konjugierten Prioris ausgestatet. Mit Hilfe bekannter Ergebnisse aus der Theorie multivariater Verteilungen ist es möglich, eine stochastische Darstellung für relevante Ausdrücke wie den Portfoliogewichten oder des effizienten Randes zu geben. Diese Darstellungen ermöglichen nicht nur die Bestimmung von Bayes-Schätzern der Parameter, sondern sind auch noch rechentechnisch hoch effizient, da Zufallszahlen nur aus bekannten und leicht zugänglichen Verteilungen gezogen werden. Insbesondere aber werden Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo Methoden nicht benötigt.
Angewendet wird diese Methodik an einem mehrperiodigen Portfoliomodell für eine exponentielle Nutzenfunktion, am Tangentialportfolio, zur Schätzung des effizienten Randes, des globalen Minimum-Varianz-Portfolios wie auch am gesamten Mittelwert-Varianz Ansatzes. Für alle behandelten Portfoliomodelle werden für wichtige Größen stochastische Darstellungen oder Bayes-Schätzer gefunden. Die Praktikabilität und Flexibilität wie auch bestimmte Eigenschaften werden in Anwendungen mit realen Datensätzen oder Simulationen illustriert.Usually, the weights of portfolio assets are expressed as a comination of the product of the precision matrix and the mean vector. These parameters have to be estimated in practical applications. But it is a challenge to describe the associated estimation risk of this product. It is demonstrated in this thesis, that a suitable Bayesian approach does not only lead to an easily accessible posteriori distribution, but also leads to easily interpretable risk measures. This also includes for example the default probability of the portfolio at all relevant points in time. To approach this task, the parameters are endowed with their conjugate priors. Using results from the theory of multivariate distributions, stochastic representations for the portfolio parameter are derived, for example for the portfolio weights or the efficient frontier. These representations not only allow to derive Bayes estimates of these parameters, but are computationally highly efficient since all th necessary random variables are drawn from well known and easily accessible distributions. Most importantly, Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo methods are not necessary. These methods are applied to a multi-period portfolio for an exponential utility function, to the tangent portfolio, to estimate the efficient frontier and also to a general mean-variance approach. Stochastic representations and Bayes estimates are derived for all relevant parameters. The practicability and flexibility as well as specific properties are demonstrated using either real data or simulations.
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Trägårdh, Andreas. "Additional Value in Project Portfolio Selection : Doing the right things by right valuation – Gains of real options portfolio theory." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Sektionen för management, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-12795.
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Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to address the, by scholars and managers alike, expressed need of development in the project portfolio selection. The research will aim to investigate how the selection of innovation projects portfolios could change if flexibility, and with it uncertainty, were added to the project portfolio selection. The aim is further to investigate how options value can be incorporated as additional value to a portfolio selection decision, with the goal to choose projects that maximize the goal function of the firm. Method: This thesis takes a qualitative approach as such approach is favourable when studying social science. The empirical research is carried out at a large international company conducting in an extensive amount of R&D as well working with innovation projects. The data is collected by unstructured and semi structured interviews with management at the company subjected to the study. Results: The results show, that by adapting the real options framework to a static way of selecting projects, the incorporation of flexibility to the selection process can add economic value by accounting for options value and handle uncertainty. The real options framework will substantiate a dynamic approach to the selection process of innovation projects, as flexibility is changing the selection process from individual project selection to the selection of portfolios.Syfte: Syftet med följande uppsats är belysa och utveckla det, av forskare och chefer, uttryckta behov av utveckling av projektportföljval. Uppsatsen syftar till att undersöka hur valet av innovationsprojekt genom portföljvalsmodeller kan förändras om flexibilitet och osäkerhet adderas till beslutsprocessen. Syftet är vidare att undersöka hur ytterligare värde kan inkorporeras i ett beslut, med målet att välja den portfölj som maximerar företagets målfunktion. Metod: Denna uppsats tar en kvalitativ metodansats då ett sådant tillvägagångssätt är fördelaktigt i studier av samhällsvetenskap. Den empiriska undersökningen har bedrivits på ett stort internationellt företag vilket deltar i ett omfattande FoU arbete, samt i stor skala arbetar med innovationsprojekt. Data har samlats in genom ostrukturerade samt semistrukturerade intervjuer med ledningen på företaget. Slutsatser: Resultaten visar att genom att inkorporera reella optioner, i en statisk beslutsprocess, så kan ett bättre beslutsunderlag genereras genom inkluderandet av osäkerhet och värdet av optioner. Ett sådant beslutsunderlag genereras genom att real options adderar flexibilitet till urvalsprocessen. Genom att inkorporera flexibilitet kommer en statisk metod att välja individuella projekt på, skifta till fördel för en dynamisk metod att välja portföljer.
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Kunt, Tomáš. "Vícekriteriální analýza portfolia na českých nebo zahraničních trzích." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-15696.
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The objective of this thesis is to apply alternative multi-objective optimization techniques to the portfolio selection problem. Theoretical part starts with detailed analysis of the classical Markowitz model and its assumptions. Following that, introduction of multi-criterion optimization techniques available for finding non-dominated portfolios is given. One of these techniques, the genetic algorithm, is presented in great detail. Some of the basic methods useful for predicting stock prices and its risks are presented at the end of the theoretical part. Practical part presents an application of the theory to the problem of constructing efficient portfolios of 11 selected stocks traded on Prague Stock Exchange. Results achieved by different approaches are compared and interpreted.
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Asif, Muneeb. "Bayesian Inference for the Global Minimum Variance Portfolio." Thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-68929.
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Fung, Tsan Sing Libon. "Rational speculative bubbles in a cross-sectional framework : a theory and simulation experiments." Thesis, Birkbeck (University of London), 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.369261.
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Falk, Johan. "Direct and Indirect Real Estate in a Mixed-asset Portfolio : Is direct or indirect preferable." Thesis, KTH, Fastigheter och byggande, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-102185.
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Studies carried out during the 2000’s have shown that securitized real estate has outperformed the direct real estate market with as much as up to 500 basis points on an annual basis during the 80’s and 90’s. Allocation to real estate among institutional investors has at the same time been at around 5%. Research conducted in the area during this period has suggested an allocation to real estate around 10% - 20% in a mixed-asset portfolio, depending on the specifics of the real estate. Securitized and direct real estate come with different benefits and different problems, such as a better inflation hedge and asset-liability frameworks but worse information transparency for direct real estate, but a higher liquidity, return (including volatility) and information transparency for securitized real estate market. This research shows that during the period 2000-2010 securitized real estate still outperforms direct real estate. The spread during the period is as much as 762 basis points per annum. The highest risk-adjusted return is given to the investor who invests between 21% - 30% depending on the specifics of the real estate. However, noticeable is that risk factors such as illiquidity, lower transparency and geographical could eventually give another perspective on the outcome of the risk-adjusted return.
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Tunyi, Abongeh Akumbom. "Takeover likelihood modelling : target profile and portfolio returns." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2014. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/5445/.
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This thesis investigates four interrelated research issues in the context of takeover likelihood modelling. These include: (1) the determinants of target firms’ takeover likelihood, (2) the extent to which targets can be predicted using publicly available information, (3) whether target prediction can form the basis of a profitable investment strategy, and – if not – (4) why investing in predicted targets is a suboptimal investment strategy. The research employs a UK sample of 32,363 firm-year observations (consisting of 1,635 target and 31,737 non-target firm-year observations) between 1988 and 2010. Prior literature relies on eight (old) hypotheses for modelling takeover likelihood – determinants of takeover likelihood. Consistent with prior studies, I find that takeover likelihood increases with the availability of free cash flow (Powell (1997, 2001, 2004)), the level of tangible assets (Ambrose and Megginson (1992)) and management inefficiency (Palepu (1986)), but decreases with firm age (Brar et al. (2009)). The empirical evidence lends no support to the firm undervaluation, industry disturbance, growth-resource mismatch or firm size hypotheses (Palepu (1986)). I extend prior research by developing eleven (new) hypotheses for target prediction. Consistent with the new hypotheses, I find evidence that takeover likelihood is an inverse U-shaped function of firm size, leverage and payroll burden. Takeover likelihood also increases with share repurchase activity, market liquidity and stock market performance and decreases with industry concentration. As anticipated, the new hypotheses improve the within-sample classification and out-of-sample predictive abilities of prior takeover prediction models. This study also contributes to the literature by exploring the effects of different methodological choices on the performance of takeover prediction models. The analyses reveal that the performance of prediction models is moderated by different modelling choices. For example, I find evidence that the use of longer estimation windows (e.g., a recursive model), as well as, portfolio selection techniques which yield larger holdout samples (deciles and quintiles) generally result in more optimal model performance. Importantly, I show that some of the methodological choices of prior researchers (e.g., a one-year holdout period and a matched-sampling methodology) either directly biases research findings or results in suboptimal model performance. Additionally, there is no evidence that model parameters go stale, at least not over a ten-year out-of-sample test period. Hence, the parameters developed in this study can be employed by researchers and practitioners to ascribe takeover probabilities to UK firms. Despite the new model’s success in predicting targets, I find that, consistent with the market efficiency hypothesis, predicted target portfolios do not consistently earn significant positive abnormal returns in the long run. That is, despite the high target concentrations achieved, the portfolios generate long run abnormal returns which are not statistically different from zero. I extend prior literature by showing that these portfolios are likely to achieve lower than expected returns for five reasons. First, a substantial proportion of each predicted target portfolio constitutes type II errors (i.e., non-targets) which, on average, do not earn significant positive abnormal returns. Second, the portfolios tend to hold a high number of firms that go bankrupt leading to a substantial decline in portfolio returns. Third, the presence of poorly-performing small firms within the portfolios further dilutes its returns. Fourth, targets perform poorly prior to takeover bids and this period of poor performance coincides with the portfolio holding period. Fifth, targets that can be successfully predicted tend to earn lower-than-expected holding period returns, perhaps, due to market-wide anticipation. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by developing new hypotheses for takeover prediction, by advancing a more robust methodological framework for developing and testing prediction models and by empirically explaining why takeover prediction as an investment strategy is, perhaps, a suboptimal strategy.
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Johncock, Suzanne. "Older people's psychological change processes : a research portfolio." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/23425.
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Objectives. The empirical qualitative study explored Older People’s (over 65 years of age) perceptions of psychological change and the processes by which these occurred. It also aimed to add to understanding of the barriers to therapeutic change. Subsequently, a systematic review of the current literature pertaining to older people’s attachment styles, and how attachment is measured within this population, was conducted. This scrutinised the literature regarding role of attachment (as a trans-diagnostic construct) in old age, as this may influence their change processes. Design. As the empirical study was exploratory, it adopted a Grounded Theory methodology, influenced by the constructivist perspective as described in Charmaz (2014). Data was obtained via semi-structured interviews, with the later interview schedule grounded in emergent codes and memos of earlier interviews. Literature pertaining to older people, attachment, and how attachment is measured, was obtained from a systematic review. Method. Twelve participants were interviewed using a semi-structured interview, following discharge from an Older Peoples Psychological Therapy Service, for the empirical project. Participants were aged 65 years or over and had received varying models of therapy over varying durations. Those reporting improvement, or no change, as a result of receiving psychological therapy, were approached to participate. Through detailed analysis, a tentative model of older people’s psychological change processes was constructed. This model was further checked by some participants for quality control. Subsequently the systematic review explored a key theme of attachment (as suggested by the categories highlighted in the empirical project). Literature regarding attachment, older people and how attachment is measured within this population, was obtained through a systematic search through major databases, compared against a checklist, constructed for this review, with all analysis prorated by qualified clinical psychologists supervising this study. Results. Interview transcriptions were analysed in line with a constructivist perspective of grounded theory. A non-linear model of psychological change, grounded in the data, was constructed. The main concepts of the model were Age as Context, Seeking Help and Entering the Therapeutic Environment, Building a Therapeutic Relationship, Developing a New Understanding, Therapeutic Changes and Post Therapy Reflections and Commitments of Continuation. In addition, some similar processes were highlighted across different therapeutic modalities, thus supporting trans-theoretical models of psychological change. In addition, the model highlighted a theme of models of relationships having continuity through the lifespan (as evidenced in the concepts of Seeking Help and Building a Therapeutic Relationship). This echoed the trans-therapeutic concept of attachment. Therefore, a systematic review of attachment in older people was conducted. Overall the quality of the literature pertaining to attachment, older people and how attachment is measured within this population was poor. There was a paucity of evidence of minimisation of bias reported in either design or analysis. Conclusions. The empirical project demonstrated the process of psychological change in older people is non-linear in nature. Some constructs of change were similar to those found in the adult literature, but there were also some constructs relating specifically to ageing, and the theoretical developmental stage of old age. This supports suggestions that age specific constructs should be held in mind when working therapeutically with older people. The systematic review found research exploring attachment in older people is a growing field of research, but one which is still in its infancy compared to other clinical populations. In addition, several studies had serious methodological issues and therefore readers are encouraged to interpret their results with caution.