Academic literature on the topic 'Portfolio Premiums'

We apply simple geometrical arguments to show that well-known approaches to determine the premium in insurance contract minimize a weighted squared differences both between the individual premiums and the individual claims and between the total premiums for classes of homogeneous risks and total claims from these blocks of business.

We apply simple geometrical arguments to show that well-known approaches to determine the premium in insurance contract minimize a weighted squared differences both between the individual premiums and the individual claims and between the total premiums for classes of homogeneous risks and total claims from these blocks of business.

This paper addresses the Bayesian estimation of the shape parameter of Pareto distributions, and its application to premium calculation of large claims excess of loss (XL) reinsurance contracts. It studies the use of the generalized inverse Gaussian (GIG) as a Pareto prior conjugate, a family that contains as a particular case the gamma distribution. An exact credibility formula is deduced allowing the calculation of individual reinsurance premiums. These are premiums suited to the excesses history of a sole portfolio. A family of predictive distributions for the excesses is derived. We apply our exact credibility model to a sample of excesses arisen in ten Spanish portfolios of liability motor insurance from year 1992 to year 2001.

This paper addresses the Bayesian estimation of the shape parameter of Pareto distributions, and its application to premium calculation of large claims excess of loss (XL) reinsurance contracts. It studies the use of the generalized inverse Gaussian (GIG) as a Pareto prior conjugate, a family that contains as a particular case the gamma distribution. An exact credibility formula is deduced allowing the calculation of individual reinsurance premiums. These are premiums suited to the excesses history of a sole portfolio. A family of predictive distributions for the excesses is derived. We apply our exact credibility model to a sample of excesses arisen in ten Spanish portfolios of liability motor insurance from year 1992 to year 2001.

Although the ability of the Fama and French (1993) 3-factor model in explaining style-based portfolio returns have been widely tested, no such test has been conducted on sector-based portfolios. The study conducted by Hsieh and Hodnett (2011) indicate that the resource sector yields significant abnormal returns under the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) over the period from 1999 to 2009. In addition, the book value-to-market ratio and market capitalization are found to have pervasive effects on the pricing of sector returns for global equities. Motivated by this insight, we undertake to test the ability of the Fama and French (1993) 3-factor model in explaining the variations in the global sector returns. Our test results indicate that the market risk premium is the most significant factor that drives the returns in all sectors under review. Although the positive abnormal returns of the resource sector dissipates under the 3-factor model, the industrial sector and the information technology (I.T.) sector yield abnormal returns under the 3-factor model. Unlike the empirical findings on the style portfolios, the signs and statistical significance of the exposures to the value and size risk premiums are not consistent across all sectors. This finding suggests that sector exposures are more unique and distinctive compared to the style portfolios. It could be argued that since most of the style portfolios are directly related to the value and size anomalies, any factor model that incorporates risk premiums on these anomalies would significantly explain the style portfolio returns. However, the ability of such factor model in explaining returns on portfolios formed using methodologies other than style anomalies, such as sector portfolio returns, would be questionable. Taking into account the rising global integration, sector allocation might be more effective in terms of global active portfolio management or international diversification than style allocation and country allocation.

Executive Summary Cross-sectional volatility measures dispersion of security returns at a particular point of time. It has received very little focus in research. This article studies the cross-section of volatility in the context of economies of Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Korea, and South Africa (BRIICKS). The analysis is done in two parts. The first part deals with systematic volatility (SV), that is, cross-sectional variation of stock returns owing to their exposure to market volatility measure ( French, Schwert, & Stambaugh, 1987 ). The second part deals with unsystematic volatility (UV), measured by the residual variance of stocks in a given period by using error terms obtained from Fama–French model. The study finds that high SV portfolios exhibit low returns in case of Brazil, South Korea, and Russia. The risk premium is found to be statistically significantly negative for these countries. This finding is consistent with Ang et al. and is indicative of hedging motive of investors in these markets. Results for other sample countries are somewhat puzzling. No significant risk premiums are reported for India and China. Significantly positive risk premiums are observed for South Africa and Indonesia. Further, capital asset pricing model (CAPM) seems to be a poor descriptor of returns on systematic risk loading sorted portfolios while FF is able to explain returns on all portfolios except high SV loading portfolio (i.e., P1) in case of South Africa which seems to be an asset pricing anomaly. It is further observed that high UV portfolios exhibit high returns in all the sample countries except China. In the Chinese market, the estimated risk premium is statistically significantly negative. This negative risk premium is inconsistent with the theory that predicts that investors demand risk compensation for imperfect diversification. The remaining sample countries show significantly positive risk premium. CAPM does not seem to be a suitable descriptor for returns on UV sorted portfolios. The FF model does a better job but still fails to explain the returns on high UV sorted portfolio in case of Brazil and China and low UV sorted portfolio in South Africa. The findings are relevant for global fund managers who plan to develop emerging market strategies for asset allocation. The study contributes to portfolio management as well as market efficiency literature for emerging economies.

Purpose – Green office buildings have recently taken on increased significance in institutional property portfolios in Australia and globally. The key issue from an institutional investor perspective is the assessment of whether green office buildings add value. Using an extensive portfolio of green office buildings, the purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the level of energy rating premiums in the property performance of green office buildings in Australia. Design/methodology/approach – Using a portfolio of over 200 green office buildings in Australia benchmarked against a comparable portfolio of non-green office buildings, the level of energy rating premiums in the property performance of green office buildings in Australia is empirically evaluated. Hedonic regression analysis is used to account for differences between specific office buildings and to explicitly identify the “pure” green effect in identifying the level of energy rating premiums in several commercial property performance characteristics (e.g. office value, rent). Findings – The empirical results show the added-value premium of the 5-star National Australian Built Environment Rating Scheme (NABERS) energy rating scheme and the Green Star scheme in the property performance of green office buildings in Australia, including office values and rents. Energy rating premiums for green office buildings are evident at the top energy ratings and energy rating discounts at the lower energy ratings. The added-value “top-end” premium of the 5-star vs 4-star NABERS energy rating category is clearly identified for the various property performance parameters, including office values and rents. Practical implications – This paper empirically determines the presence of energy rating premiums at the top energy ratings in the performance of green office buildings, as well as energy rating discounts at the lower energy ratings. This clearly highlights the added value dimension of energy efficiency in green office buildings and the need for the major office property investors to prioritise the highest energy rating to facilitate additional property performance premiums. This will also see green office buildings become the norm as the market benchmark rather than non-green office buildings. Social implications – This paper highlights energy performance premiums for green office buildings. This fits into the context of sustainability in the property industry and the broader aspects of corporate social responsibility in the property industry. Originality/value – This paper is the first published property research analysis on the detailed determination of energy rating premiums across the energy rating spectrum for green office buildings in Australia. Given the increased focus on energy efficiency and green office buildings, this research enables empirically validated and practical property investment decisions by office property investors regarding the importance of energy efficiency and green office buildings, and the priority to achieve the highest energy rating to maximise property performance premiums in office values and rents.

Purpose – The relative performance of five popular nonzero-investment strategies, including Size, book-to-market ratios, earnings-to-price (E/P) ratios, cash flow-to-price (CF/P) ratios and dividend-to-price ratios, and their corresponding zero-investment strategies (also known as premiums) are first examined altogether for equally weighted (EW) and value-weighted (VW) methods to check whether a certain strategy (or some strategies) could be recommended to portfolio managers as the best (better) strategy (strategies). The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses the stochastic dominance (SD) approach, a non-parametric test, to investigate the relative performance among various strategies and help investors search for the best or better strategy (strategies). Findings – The main results show that both the highest E/P and CF/P strategies (and their corresponding premiums) generally produce higher returns than the other three strategies (and their corresponding premiums) through allocating investors’ capital between the risky and risk-free assets for the EW and VW methods, respectively. Research limitations/implications – This study only examines US stock markets by SD approach, whether the results are consistent with non-US markets still needs further investigation. The findings imply that investors can benefit by investing in the highest E/P or CF/P stocks (or their corresponding premiums) to make more profit or less loss for US stock markets. Practical implications – First, the SD findings suggest that investors or portfolio managers can allocate their funds between risky and risk-free assets to maximize their profits. Next, the simulation results again prove that the profits of each nonzero-investment or zero-investment strategy for EW portfolios are higher than those of each corresponding strategy for VW portfolios. Finally, the findings imply that portfolio managers or investors can invest in the highest E/P or CF/P stocks (or their corresponding premiums) to make more profit or less loss. Originality/value – This study first uses an extensive data set (1952-2009) to examine the relative performance of nonzero-investment strategies and their corresponding zero-investment strategies for the five popular indicators altogether for the EW and VW methods with the SD approach for US stock markets. Moreover, the results reveal that the investors or portfolio managers can invest in the highest E/P and/or CF/P portfolios (or their corresponding premiums) to make more profit or less loss.

AbstractThe probability of ruin in continuous and finite time is numerically evaluated in a classical risk process where the premium can be updated according to credibility models and therefore change from year to year. A major consideration in the development of this approach is that it should be easily applicable to large portfolios. Our method uses as a first tool the model developed by Afonso et al. (2009), which is quite flexible and allows premiums to change annually. We extend that model by introducing a credibility approach to experience rating.We consider a portfolio of risks which satisfy the assumptions of the Bühlmann (1967, 1969) or Bühlmann and Straub (1970) credibility models. We compute finite time ruin probabilities for different scenarios and compare with those when a fixed premium is considered.

<p>We examine the proposition that the premium/discount (PD) of Greek closed-end funds (CEFs) is an accurate proxy for the small-investor sentiment risk. We find that the average PD explains the returns of portfolios of large capitalization and low book-to-market ratio stocks. In this context, we are unable to confirm a link between the perceived PD anomaly and the small size effect. Moreover, we show that the explanatory power of the PD for portfolio returns depends on the form of the asset pricing model used in the regression analysis. Finally, in terms of predictive ability, we find evidence that the PD predicts the size and the book-to-market premiums but little evidence that the PD predicts individual portfolio returns.</p>

This thesis aims to explore if the existence of portfolio price premiums can be verified and if they differ in time and over property segments. The purpose is to contribute with valuable insights within the field of portfolio premiums in the real estate industry. In order to explore this further a regression model was developed. The model includes six portfolio variables controlling for size in the aspect of transactional value and number of properties included in the portfolio. We further test if the premium varies over property segments and over time. The data was provided by Cushman & Wakefield and consists of 825 property transactions. The results show that a portfolio premium for small, medium and large portfolios with a transactional value over 500 million SEK, and a discount on small portfolios with a transactional value below 500 million SEK is present. The premium was found to be 17.5% for small portfolios, 16.8% for medium sized and 26.3% for large portfolios. While premiums were found for portfolios with a transactional value over 500 million SEK an 13.7% discount was found for small portfolios with a transaction value below 500 million SEK. Which indicates that investors are willing to pay a premium, but only for larger portfolios. Furthermore, the only segment test with significant results were residential and industrial of which residential indicated a discount on small and medium portfolios with a transactional value over 500 million SEK and industrial indicated a discount on small portfolios with a transactional value over 500 million SEK. The test of variation of a portfolio premium over time gave mixed results and showed that investors payed a premium for medium and large portfolios with a transactional value over 500 million SEK during 2010 - 2015.
Detta masterarbete syftar till att undersöka fenomenet portföljpremier och bidra till utökad kunskap om premier och möjliga förklaringar till varför de uppkommer. Författarna har undersökt om det går att kvantifiera den påstådda portföljpremien och om denna skiljer sig över fastighetsegmenten och tid. Syftet med arbete är att bidrag med värdefulla insikter och kunskap om portföljpremier inom fastighetsbranschen. För att kunna besvara frågeställningen utvecklade författarna en regressionsmodell. Modellen innehöll sex portföljvariabler som bland annat kontrollerade för storlek i förhållande till transaktionsvärde samt antal fastigheter inkluderade i portföljen. För att undersöka om premien varierade över fastighetssegment och med tid utfördes fem olika segmentstest och två års tester. Data som användes i regressionerna tillhandahölls av Cushman & Wakefield. Resultatet av studien visar att det finns en portföljpremie på små, medelstora och stora fastighetsportföljer med ett transaktionsvärde över 500 millioner kronor. Premien noterades till 17,5% för små portföljer, 16,8% för medelstora portföljer och 26,3% för stora portföljer. Medans en premie noterades för portföljer med ett transaktionsvärde över 500 millioner kronor kunde en rabatt om 13,7% hittas för små portföljer med etttransaktionsvärde under 500 millioner kronor. Segmenttesten som genomfördes gav blandade resultat. De test som gav signifikanta resultat var segmentstest för industri och bostäder. Resultatet av regressionen visade att det finns en rabatt för små och medelstora bostadsportföljer med ett transaktionsvärde överstigande 500 millioner kronor samt en rabatt för små industriportföljer med ett transaktionsvärde över 500 millioner kronor. Utöver segmentstesten gjordes även två tester där författarna testade om premien varierade över tid. Likaså här gav testerna blandade resultat. Det kan konstateras att en premie återfinns för portföljer handlade under perioden 2010 - 2015.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2002.
Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 112-118). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.

This thesis gives the formal derivations of the so-called Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion and their multivariate generalizations. The applications of these measures in portfolio selection models are also presented. Assuming that a decision maker's preferences can be represented by a unidimensional von Neumann and Morgenstern utility function, we consider a model with an uninsurable initial random wealth and an insurable risk. Under the assumption that the two random variables have a bivariate normal distribution, the second-order co-variance operator is developed from Stein/Rubinstein first-order covariance operator and is used to derive Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion from the approximations of risk premiums. Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion are proved to be the appropriate generalizations of the Arrow-Pratt measures of risk aversion. In a portfolio selection model with two risky investments having a bivariate normal distribution, we show that Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion can yield the desirable characterizations of risk aversion and wealth effects on the optimal portfolio. These properties of Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion are analogous to those of the Arrow-Pratt measures of risk aversion in the portfolio selection model with one riskless and one risky investment. In multi-dimensional decision problems, we assume that a decision maker's preferences can be represented by a multivariate utility function. From the model with an uninsurable initial wealth vector and insurable risk vector having a joint normal distribution in the wealth space, we derived the matrix measures of risk aversion which are the multivariate extension of Rubinstein's measures of risk aversion. The derivations are based on the multivariate version of Stein/Rubinstein covariance operator developed by Gassmann and its second-order generalization to be developed in this thesis. We finally present an application of the matrix measures of risk aversion in a portfolio selection model with a multivariate utility function and two risky investments. In this model, if we assume that the random returns on the two investments and other random variables have a joint normal distribution, the optimal portfolio can be characterized by the matrix measures of risk aversion.
Business, Sauder School of
Graduate

The expected equity premium is an important parameter in many financial models, especially within portfolio optimization. A good forecast of the future equity premium is therefore of great interest. In this thesis we seek to forecast the equity premium, use it in portfolio optimization and then give evidence on how sensitive the results are to estimation errors and how the impact of these can be minimized.

Linear prediction models are commonly used by practitioners to forecast the expected equity premium, this with mixed results. To only choose the model that performs the best in-sample for forecasting, does not take model uncertainty into account. Our approach is to still use linear prediction models, but also taking model uncertainty into consideration by applying Bayesian model averaging. The predictions are used in the optimization of a portfolio with risky assets to investigate how sensitive portfolio optimization is to estimation errors in the mean vector and covariance matrix. This is performed by using a Monte Carlo based heuristic called portfolio resampling.

The results show that the predictive ability of linear models is not substantially improved by taking model uncertainty into consideration. This could mean that the main problem with linear models is not model uncertainty, but rather too low predictive ability. However, we find that our approach gives better forecasts than just using the historical average as an estimate. Furthermore, we find some predictive ability in the the GDP, the short term spread and the volatility for the five years to come. Portfolio resampling proves to be useful when the input parameters in a portfolio optimization problem is suffering from vast uncertainty.

Non-arbitrage asset pricing has been an avenue of unending interest to financial academics and practitioners alike. With increased capital outflow being permitted by developing economies, investors now have easy access to securities issued by foreign firms. The issue investigated in this research is concerned with the persistent presence of arbitrage opportunities between depository receipts and domestic stocks of Indian firms during the recent financial crisis. Instead of being priced in parity with one another during the crisis, ADRs of Indian firms were overpriced by as much as 70% for months on end. This thesis investigates the reasons giving rise to this premium by analyzing causes like benefits from diversification and liquidity.

This thesis contains empirical studies of portfolio choice and asset prices. The first two chapters deal with incorporating labor supply into models traditionally only focusing on consumption. Can the risk premium on stocks be better understood when taking labor supply into account? This is the topic of the first chapter. Do possibilities of varying labor supply, and thus hedging stock market risk, help explain the stock ownership patterns of households? This question is what the second chapter tries to answer. If labor income moves with the stock market, an attempt should be made to hedge this with a lower share of stocks in the portfolio and, but do households act according to this rule? This is what the third chapter investigates. Chapter one, Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from the PSID, examines the relationship between labor supply flexibility and portfolio choice. Theoretical articles have shown that, ceteris paribus, the optimal portfolio share of risky assets (stocks) increases with labor supply flexibility, due to increased possibilities of hedging financial risk by adjusting the labor supply. Using PSID household data, this hypothesis is tested using a direct measure of labor supply flexibility from survey questions. The results indicate that the total portfolio share is increased by labor supply flexibility. When separated, most of this effect seems to come from the increased probability of stock ownership due to flexible labor, rather than an increased portfolio share among stockholders. Chapter two, Can Leisure Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle? An Empirical Investigation, investigates the asset pricing properties of non-separable utility functions with consumption and leisure. The parameter restrictions needed to match the historical equity premium are explored using US data on consumption, hours and returns. Empirically, it is shown that to match the equity premium with a low level of risk aversion, consumption and leisure need to be strong complements, i.e. have a very low substitution elasticity. Chapter three, Income Risk and Stockholdings: Evidence from Swedish Microdata, examines the relationship between income risk and portfolio choice. It empirically investigates whether the stock market risk (the covariation with the stock market) in labor income is reflected by an offsetting lower share of stocks in financial portfolios, an effect that has been shown to exist in theoretical articles. Swedish microdata from HINK on households’ income and wealth are used for this purpose. In repeated cross-sections, households are divided into "portfolio cohorts" corresponding to percentiles of the share of stocks in financial assets. Income risk, i.e. the regression beta of (log) income growth on aggregate stock returns, is compared for the different groups. As predicted by theory, the results provide some support for a negative relationship between income risk and the share of stocks.
Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2004

In order to assure a livelihood for the working population after retirement, the national retirement pension was developed. The system is based on 18.5% of each tax-paying worker’s annual salary. The national retirement pension system in Sweden consist of two parts. The first and largest part contributing with 16 percentage points, of the 18.5%, is a defined benefit plan, named the income pension. The second part contributing with 2.5 percentage points, of the 18.5%, is the premium pension, which is a defined contribution plan. The premium pension is the sole part of the national retirement pension controlled by the individual employee, with the opportunity to actively invest in a broad selection of domestic and international funds. Investors not making a choice will be transferred into the governments default fund, named the seventh AP fund. By investing in funds, the premium pension is partly based on each worker’s annual salary but also on the development of the financial market. This thesis has two purposes, the first is to investigate if the default alternative, the seventh AP fund has had a superior risk-adjusted return compared to fifty of the most commonly selected equity funds available in the premium pension selection. The second purpose is to construct portfolios for active investors with different risk-tolerance in order to compare the risk-adjusted return between an investor that has made an active investment in comparison to an investor that has not made an active choice. To conclude, this thesis shows that there are superior funds to select, with regard to risk-adjusted return and risk-exposure, as an alternative to the seventh AP fund. In addition to this, the portfolio construction included in this thesis has proven that active participants can achieve results that are more compatible with their risk preferences in comparison to remaining in the default fund option. However, it is important for investors to remain active and alter their fund selections throughout the years, in order to attain the preferable outcome.

The aim of my Masters thesis is propose the insurance portfolio for legal entity - the Brno based company Úklidový servis ŠKAROUPKA s.r.o. The thesis contains risk analysis and also concept of insurance portfolio that aims to minimaze risks that could limit the company running by the way of insurance product.

Submitted by Pedro Guimarães (pedroengel@hotmail.com) on 2017-12-28T19:42:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5)
Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2018-01-15T18:46:52Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5)
Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-16T19:08:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-28
This doctoral thesis is composed of three chapters related to portfolio theory and model uncertainty. The first paper investigates how ambiguity averse agents explain the equity premium puzzle for a large group of countries including both Advanced Economies (AE) and Emerging Markets (EM). In the second article, we develop a general robust allocation framework that is capable of dealing with parametric and non parametric asset allocation models. In the final paper, I investigate portfolio selection criteria and analyze a set of portfolios out of sample performance in terms of Sharpe ratio (SR) and Certainty Equivalent (CEQ)

American art, both pre-1950 art and contemporary works, are examined as investment vehicles in this chapter. This study, unlike others, factors in both buyer’s and seller’s premiums charged by the auction house. These transaction costs must be considered when calculating actual returns from utilizing art at auction as an investment. We find that, under various assumptions of these transaction expenses, early American art (pre-1950) provides a modest return of between a negative 3-plus and a positive 2 percent. Contemporary American art, for our sample, yields a far higher return in the range of 18 percent and above. However, contemporary art carries a higher risk than holding a market portfolio, although quite naturally the return must include psychic income. This chapter, moreover, provides clear evidence that early and contemporary American art are two distinct markets.

The fundamental PDE for valuing cash flows or cash flow streams is explained. In a complete market, an investor’s optimal wealth satisfies the fundamental PDE, and this provides a means of calculating the optimal portfolio. Risk neutral probabilities and Girsanov’s theorem are explained. Jump processes, including Poisson processes, are introduced. The risk premium of an asset with jump risks depends on covariation of its continuous part with the continuous part of an SDF and the covariation of its discontinuous part with the discontinuous part of an SDF. Portfolio choice with internal habits is characterized. The ability of a representative investor model with an internal habit to explain the equity premium puzzle is discussed.

Continuous‐time filtering is explained, including the Kalman filter and filtering for a Markov chain with hidden states. Filtering theory is applied to analyze portfolio choice and equilibrium asset prices. When the expected return of an asset is unknown and is estimated from past returns, the myopic demand is a momentum strategy. When investors learn expected consumption growth from realized consumption growth, equilibrium prices are more sensitive to consumption shocks and the equity premium is higher. When the consumption growth rate follows a Markov chain with hidden states, return volatility tends to be higher when investors are less certain about which state the economy is in.

The distinction between conditional and unconditional factor pricing models is explained. The conditional CAPM implies that unconditional risk premia are linear in the expected beta and the beta of the beta. The CCAPM and ICAPM are derived as approximate relations in discrete time. Testing conditional models is equivalent to unconditional tests of pricing for managed portfolios. The Gordon growth model is derived, assuming that dividend growth and the single‐period SDF are IID over time. The equity premium and risk‐free rate puzzles are derived from the Gordon growth model with a CRRA investor and lognormal consumption growth. The Campbell‐Shiller linearization implies that dividend yields predict either future returns or future dividend growth.

Instead of traditionally looking at investing in different types of asset classes in order to exploit diversification effects, investors are turning to the underlying performance drivers built-in in many asset classes – factors. The intuition is that assets earn risk premiums because they are exposed to underlying risk factors. Factor models were developed as a simplification and continuation of diversification principle and mean-variance efficiency introduced by Harry Markowitz. This chapter will focus on one of the standard investment and cross section factors called momentum. It became very popular since 1993 when Jegadeesh and Titman documented that strategies that buying stocks that have performed well in the past and selling stocks that have performed poorly generate significant positive returns. This chapter aims to provide an introduction to factor models development and momentum effects on stock and bond markets – description of methodology and detailed literature overview.

The purpose of this chapter is to address the main developments and challenges on risk assessment and portfolio management. The former innovation in modern portfolio theory, Markowitz, has been succeeded from linear and non-linear optimization techniques that improve portfolio efficiency. Special emphasis is given on Roy's seminal work on “Safety First Criterion” which advocates that the safety of investments should be prioritized. Thus, an investment should be chosen in a way that it has the lowest probability of falling short of a required threshold of investors. This motivated Markowitz to advocate a downside risk measure based on semivariance. It captures the notion of risk as failure to meet some minimum target. It is influenced by returns below the target rate. It focuses on investors' concern with downside variability and loss reduction. This chapter offers a critical reflection of these recent developments and could be of interest for individual and institutional investors.

The main purpose of this chapter is to gain insight into the latest trends in retailers' strategies in terms of private labels and their customer value proposition in the context of proliferating brands and multi-brand portfolios. The first part of this chapter provides a comprehensive review of research on evolving trends in private label strategy in addition to some conceptual considerations. It is followed by an analysis, based on a number of industry reports, of the resulting quality-value balance and PLs' performance across some representative countries. In addition, this chapter looks into some sustainable MMCG brands (organic, fair trade, etc.), with the focus on their presence in retailers worldwide, as an example of such premium PLs strategy. Finally, in order to further illustrate retailers' strategies and PLs role in this ever growing value-added niche market, this chapter will draw on sustainable Spanish FMCG market through a market-research case

A business case describes a problem present in all insurance companies: portfolio risk evaluation. Such analysis deals with determining the risk level as well as main risk factors. In the specific case, an insurance company is faced with market share growth and profit decline. Discovered knowledge about the level of risk and main risk factors was not used to increase premium for the riskiest portfolio segments due to a specific market situation, which could lead to loss of clients in the long run. Instead, additional analysis was conducted using data mining methods resulting in a solution, which stopped further profit decline and lowered the risk level for the riskiest portfolio segments. The central role for the unexpected revealed knowledge in the chapter acts as the REFII model. The REFII model is an authorial mathematical model for time series data mining. The main purpose of that model is to automate time series analysis, through a unique transformation model of time series.

A business case describes a problem present in all insurance companies: portfolio risk evaluation. Such analysis deals with determining the risk level as well as main risk factors. In the specific case, an insurance company is faced with market share growth and profit decline. Discovered knowledge about the level of risk and main risk factors was not used to increase premium for the riskiest portfolio segments due to a specific market situation, which could lead to loss of clients in the long run. Instead, additional analysis was conducted using data mining methods resulting in a solution, which stopped further profit decline and lowered the risk level for the riskiest portfolio segments. The central role for the unexpected revealed knowledge in the chapter acts as the REFII model. The REFII model is an authorial mathematical model for time series data mining. The main purpose of that model is to automate time series analysis, through a unique transformation model of time series.

Abstract The power generation industry is facing unprecedented challenges. High fuel costs and increased penetration of renewable power have resulted in greater demand for high efficiency and operational flexibility. Imperatives to reduce carbon footprint place an even higher premium on efficiency. Power producers are seeking highly efficient, reliable, and operationally flexible solutions that provide long-term profitability in a volatile environment. New generation must also be cost-effective to ensure affordability for both domestic and industrial consumers. Gas turbine combined cycle power plants meet these requirements by providing reliable, dispatchable generation with a low cost of electricity, reduced environmental impact, and broad operational flexibility. Start times for large, industrial gas turbine combined cycles are less than 30 minutes from turning gear to full load, with ramp rates from 60 to 88 MW/minute. GE introduced the 7/9HA industrial gas turbine product portfolio in 2014 in response to these demands. These air-cooled, H-class gas turbines (7/9HA) are engineered to achieve greater than 63% net combined cycle efficiency while delivering operational flexibility through deep, emission-compliant turndown and high ramp rates. The largest of these gas turbines, the 9HA.02, is designed to exceed 64% combined cycle efficiency (net, ISO) in a 1×1, single-shaft (SS) configuration. As of December 2018, a total of 32 7/9HA power plants have achieved COD (Commercial Operation Date) while accumulating over 220,000 hours of operation. These plants operate across a variety of demand profiles including base load and load following (intermediate) service. Fleet leaders for both the 7HA and 9HA have exceeded 12,000 hours of operation, with multiple units over 8,000 hours. This paper will address four topics relating to the HA platform: 1) gas turbine product technology, 2) gas turbine validation, 3) integrated power plant commissioning and operating experience, and 4) lessons learned and fleet reliability.

We develop a novel pricing strategy that approximates the value of an American option with exotic features through a portfolio of European options with different maturities. Among our findings, we show that: (i) our model is numerically robust in pricing plain vanilla American options; (ii) the model matches observed bids and premiums of multidimensional options that integrate Ratchet, Asian, and Barrier characteristics; and (iii) our closed-form approximation allows for an analytical solution of the option’s greeks, which characterize the sensitivity to various risk factors. Finally, we highlight that our estimation requires less than 1% of the computational time compared to other standard methods, such as Monte Carlo simulations.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.