Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Population policy'

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
O envelhecimento da população altera a dinâmica das principais variáveis macroeconómicas com implicações para a condução da política monetária e estabilidade dos preços. O presente trabalho pretende analisar as principais tendências demográficas e de que forma influenciam o ambiente económico onde a política monetária é conduzida, causando direta ou indiretamente movimentos indesejados nas taxas de inflação. Recorrendo a uma técnica polinomial, estimamos a relação empírica entre a estrutura etária e a inflação para um painel de 24 países da OCDE durante o período 1961-2014. Encontramos uma correlação significativa entre demografia e inflação, consistente com a hipótese de que um aumento da população ativa causa pressões deflacionistas, enquanto uma maior parcela de dependentes e reformados está associada a taxas de inflação mais elevadas. Os resultados sugerem que o potencial impacto do processo de envelhecimento a nível global sobre a inflação deve ser tido em conta nas decisões de política monetária.
The ongoing demographic changes can affect the dynamic of economics in several ways, with implications for the conduct of monetary policy and price stability. This paper analyses the future prospects on demographic changes and how they are expected to influence the macroeconomic environment where monetary policy is conducted, which can directly or indirectly generate unwanted inflation dynamics. By adopting a polynomial technique, an estimation is carried out to determine the relationship between the age structure and inflation in a panel of 24 OECD countries over the 1961-2014 period. A significant correlation is found between demography and inflation, consistent with the hypothesis that an increase in the share of working-age population causes deflationary pressures, while a larger scale of dependents and young retirees are associated with higher inflation rates. The results suggest that the potential impact of the global ageing process on inflation should be taken into consideration in the decision making processes of monetary policy.

Thesis (M.Arch.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Architecture, 1999.
Includes bibliographical references (leaf 52).
This thesis will focus on how urban housing design reflects the new one-child family population policy in the traditional urban context in Beijing, China. The population policy has changed the size and structure of traditional family, and further affected children's growing up environment. Children, used to grow up in a joint family of three generations in a traditional courtyard house, now have isolated by apartment box. The traditional social and spatial relationships among children, families, and neighbors have been extremely weakened. My intention is to restore the lost relationships for lonely children in a high density residential complex. This complex, transformed from the traditional single story courtyard house, becomes one big house, where all neighbors live under one roof as one big family. As a consequence, children in a one child family still have the same feeling of multi generations living together as their old generations had before.
by Mingzheng Gao.
M.Arch.

Power engineering today is the most vulnerable point of Ukraine economy. Energy Strategy of Ukraine aims to increase the share of domestic fossil fuels in the energy balance of the country to 91.8% until 2030 (Energy Strategy of Ukraine till 2030). High dependence Ukrainian industry on fossil fuels leads to significant industrial and transport emissions. The carbon dioxide CO2, carbon monoxide CO, nitrogen oxides NO, NO2, sulfur dioxide SO2 and hydrocarbons are discharged into the air as a result of combustion are. The largest contribution to greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector carries out power industry. Its share is 76,06 % in 2011.

Current assessments of research impact have been criticised for capturing what can be easily counted, not what counts. This thesis examines research impact and use in multiple ways, using childhood obesity prevention research and policy conducted and developed in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, between 2000 and 2015, as a case example. A broad systems lens is applied, with sub-studies examining specific aspects of this research-policy system in detail. A mix of quantitative and qualitative methods are used, including: systematic review; bibliometric analysis; citation analysis; document analysis; semi-structured interviews; and case studies. Firstly, the literature on research impact assessment is compared to that measuring policy utilisation of research. Secondly, the knowledge production context, including how and why research was conducted is investigated. Finally, research impact and use are assessed tracing forwards from research and backwards from policy, using a mix of narrow (research projects; policy documents) and broad (policy cases) units of analysis. The comparative approach used, empirically demonstrates how some methods of measuring impact restrict what can be defined and assessed as impact and therefore downplay the diverse ways in which research can influence policy processes. Different methods provide different perspectives of the relationship between research and policy, in terms of causation versus contribution. In addition, they give a different view of what is transferred, knowledge or research. Ultimately assessment needs to go beyond an understanding of research use as instrumental. This view determines the type of research that will be identified as impactful at the expense of other types of research. Looking beyond the efforts of individual researchers and research groups, to examine how systems support policy relevant knowledge production and use, may offer a way forward.

Empowered patient or empowered physician. An analysis of the importance of the gatekeeper in the health delivery system. This paper examines the important role of the gatekeeper in the health delivery system. A simple theoretical model is developed which compares the resource allocation when physicians act as gatekeepers with the decisions taken when patients are empowered. It is shown that even when there is no asymmetry of information---and so patients and doctors are equally able to identify the appropriate therapy---that the institutional arrangement matters. Patients demand more time with physicians when they are empowered whereas physicians want to spend more time developing their expertise when they are empowered. The reaction of physicians and patients to changes in policy instruments also differs across institutional arrangements. The analysis also draws attention to the design of the compensation scheme for physicians, and investigates the benefits of using a non-linear scheme. Wealth, health, and the pursuit of happiness. This paper provides a theoretical framework to illustrate the relationship between income, utility maximization, and healthy choices. The analysis indicates that the choices of individuals who maximize utility are not the same as those arising were the individual to maximize wellness. In fact, rational individuals will over-eat and under-exercise relative to health maximizing levels. Yet as individuals get wealthier, they have better health. The paper also compares different strategies for health promotion. Income redistribution may lead to a net increase in population health and in social welfare. By contrast, policies that specifically target lifestyle choices may succeed in persuading citizens to choose a health-maximizing lifestyle, but result in a net welfare loss to society. An empirical investigation of household income and income polices on obesity in Canada. Using the master files of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS), this paper examines the effect of income on obesity and individuals' body-mass index. An instrumental variable technique is employed to derive consistent estimates of this effect and to take account of the possible endogeneity between income and body weight. It is found that higher income will lead to lower body weight for women, while its effect on the body-weight outcome of men is unclear. This chapter uses the estimates of the relationship between income and body weight to simulate the impact of government income policies---like social assistance and child support---on obesity. It is shown that incomes policies may not only decrease income inequality but may also contribute to a lower incidence of obesity amongst the poorer population thus decreasing overall health care costs.

This study emphasizes the impact of family planning program components on contraceptive prevalence in less industrialized countries. Building on Lapham and Mauldin's "Program Effort and Fertility Decline" framework and policy evaluation's theory, the author developed two models to examine the impact of family planning programs on contraceptive prevalence and fertility under the constraints of socioeconomic development and demand for family planning. The study employed path analysis and multiple regression on data from the 1982 program effort study in 94 less developed countries (LDCs) by Lapham and Mauldin and 98 LDCs of the 1989 program effort study by Mauldin and Ross. The results of data analyses for all data sets are consistent for the most part. Major findings are as follows: (1) A combination of program effort and socioeconomic development best explains the variation of contraceptive prevalence. (2) Among socioeconomic variables, female literacy exerts the strongest direct and indirect influences to increase contraceptive prevalence and indirect influence to decrease total fertility rate. (3) Christianity performs a significant role in reducing contraceptive prevalence. (4) Among program effort components, availability and accessibility for fertility-control supplies and services have the most influence on contraceptive prevalence. (5) When controlling for demand for family planning, female literacy and Christianity have expected and significant relationships with contraceptive prevalence. Availability and accessibility to fertility-control supplies and services exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on contraceptive prevalence. Demand for family planning has a positive and statistically significant effect on program variables, availability, and contraceptive prevalence. (6) There is a strong inverse relationship between contraceptive use and fertility. Demand for family planning, program effort, and socioeconomic development influence fertility through contraceptive prevalence. The findings of this study suggest that governments in LDCs should give priorities to increasing female education and availability of contraception to effectively reduce fertility.

This qualitative study examined the lived experiences of key campus stakeholders and policy implementation. Using semi-structured interviews, key stakeholders were asked about their experiences with 15 to Finish: a 2014 completion message that led to a financial aid policy. Through snowball sampling, participants included administrators from the state higher education system, senior administrators from academic and administrative units, professional and academic advisors, and students. Data was also collected through meeting agendas and agency reports. Interviews were transcribed and all text was analyzed using hermeneutic phenomenology. Three key themes were constructed: (a) administrators and faculty help students because it is the right thing to do; (b) messaging and communication of a policy and campaign can be divisive and should employ a communications plan; and (c) Nevada is experiencing a change in college culture from access to completion.

This study uses data from National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey undertaken in 2001, systematic reviews of provincial policy fertility in 1990s, information on the nature of family planning (FP) services at grassroots institutions and a new measure of women's son preference, to advance knowledge of determinants of reproduction in rural China. The main statistical methods in this study include latent class analysis, life table, parity progression ratio, multilevel logistic regression and multilevel Poisson regression. The analysis is performed within groups of provinces according to their population policy (I-child, 1.5-child and 2-child). The results showed that fertility rate was closely related to China's population policy: the stricter the policy, the lower the fertility rate. By the end of the last century, fertility rates for the three types of provinces were close to respective policy fertility, indicating a success of China's population policy. However, strict population policy increased risks of abortion and imbalance in sex ratio at birth (SRB), particularly the rising sex ratio of second births in 1.5-child provinces. Variations in availability of specific FP methods by local services did not play a leading role in reducing fertility level, risk of abortion and imbalanced SRB. Son preference at province or individual level had strong impacts on progression to second birth, risk of abortion, and SRB, but the effects vary between types of provinces. Effects of other individual characteristics, i.e., couples' age, women's education, sex of existing child, on reproduction are also explored and discussed in this study. It can be concluded that strict implementation of population policy was the dominant influence on fertility levels but it also raised risk of abortion and imbalance in SRB in rural China. For these and other reasons, China needs to relax its I-child and 1.5-child policies immediately.

I report the findings of an original empirical study of population policy information needs and modes of information dissemination and use among policymakers in the Asia-Pacific region. Data were obtained through a survey of readers of a population journal. Respondents' information needs and uses are analyzed. The findings help answer broad questions about development-related social-scientific information needs and uses among policymakers. An assessment of the potential contribution of new telematic technologies to information dissemination and use in the 1990s, based upon the survey findings and a review of the literature on telematic applications, is presented.Ball State UniversityMuncie, IN 47306
Center for Information and Communication Sciences

The United Kingdom's population censuses have been a vital source of information for the formulation of policy. This application of census data has been for spatial classifications from national down to sub-local authority levels. Traditionally the information from the censuses has been primarily in the form of fixed, predetermined tabular output. This has restricted the usefulness of the censuses for policy-making processes. The 1991 and 2001 censuses have provided data in a new format (microdata) which potentially overcomes many of the constraints inherent in earlier censuses. The sets of microdata are large samples of anonymised records (SARs) which contain over one million records of individual persons. The research undertaken by the candidate examined whether, and how, these sets of microdata could be successfully utilised by urban and regional organisations to improve the quality of information available for the formulation of their policies. In principle the sample sizes and ranges of variables available in the SARs, used in conjunction with appropriate analytical techniques, could provide a powerful mechanism to improve policy formulation. In practice a set of developments would need to be undertaken to maximise the effective utilisation of microdata for policy applications. The candidate has published a series of refereed research papers which have explored and developed some of the main aspects of this field of study. The research work required the identification, development and application of techniques which would be both valid with the data available and which would be simultaneously operationally useful to the policy-making agencies. In this context it is argued that the research has made original contributions to knowledge.

The thesis is concerned with the impact of population ageing on the future trends of male employment and unemployment in Japan, since it is thought that rising unemployment amongst older people will increase the dependency rate, leading to a reduction in capital accumulation and slower economic growth. The study is based on material and data obtained while researching in Japan for one year and draws heavily on Japanese-language sources. First, the role of rapidly falling fertility in stimulating economic growth in Japan is examined, followed by a detailed analysis of employment practices across different sizes of company in Japan that draws on surveys published by government and private institutions. It is found that existing analyses of Japanese employment practices ignore the importance of workforce age structure in internal labour markets. An efficiency age structure hypothesis that stresses labour demand rigidities is formulated: it is hypothesised that large firms with internal labour markets attempt to maintain a given internal age structure to maximise workforce efficiency. This behaviour implies that as the population ages, the unemployment rate of older men will rise. The implications of this hypothesis are examined at a micro level through an analysis of the adjustments firms have made to employment practices; and at the macro level through an analysis of the macro labour market. The absorptive capacity of small companies and self-employment for older men was examined using cohort analysis. Finally the impact of government policy on the labour market for older men is examined and assessed. Government policy is divided into two main categories: labour market intervention and public pension reform. The thesis indicates that raising the pension eligibility age will not reduce dependency unless employment practices that generate unemployment of older people are changed.

The objective of this diploma thesis is to describe and to complexly evaluate Chinas one child policy from its introduction in 1979 till its abandonment in 2015. Theoretical part of thesis offers a detailed description of the policy, its application in real life, circumstances and aims that led to the implementation of the policy. Applied part of thesis analyses its effect on the fertility rate, population growth and economic growth. According to the results of this analysis one child policy helped to decline Chinas fertility rate and population growth, however its impact is just partial. The decline of Chinese population growth then contributed to the economic growth; my estimate is that it composed 40 % of average annual growth of real GDP per capita. One child policy is also responsible for raising sex ratio and ageing of population in China. These demographic problems let to its replacement by two child policy that probably wont solve these problems.

Indian population policy in the twentieth century was shaped by a blend of unique Indian concerns about population growth, legacies of British colonialism, and American foreign aid. This blend of influences resulted in the first national family planning program in the world.
Master of Arts

This thesis is about the relationship between research, data and the population problem in India between 1938 and 1974. It argues that the research practices and the data collected by demographers and social scientists in India are crucial to understanding how the population problem was framed, understood, and acted on. New kinds of research such as sample surveys, and knowledge attitude and practice (KAP) surveys were instrumental in constructing India as an overpopulated country in the twentieth century, as well as in furnishing India with the means to use and challenge this label by the 1970s. Many of the arguments made about the history of population control in India have focused on the role of the international network of population control experts in shaping the policies implemented by the Indian Government. This historiography has stressed the importance of contraception and of American expertise. This thesis re-frames this narrative by focusing on social science research and researchers as they worked in and on India. It examines the importance of behavioural approaches to family planning and population control, and their role in shaping how the population problem was understood and acted on. It revisits the importance of arguments about development, modernization, and fertility, focusing on the importance of different developmental models and their impact on population policy in the post-colonial period. It charts the connections between research and policy, exploring how they raised new questions about the empirical reality of the population problem, about the proper way to measure and understand it, and ultimately, explores the relationship between the state, statistics and individuals.

The diploma thesis deals with the impacts of China's population policy. Thesis is divided into three main chapters. The first one discusses the characteristics of population policy in general, mainly the concept and definition of population policy's types and instruments and also the current practices in the world. The second chapter deals with the characteristics of population policy in China from the historical point of view. There is also a description of the registration system "hukou" and exemptions from the population policy. The second chapter also describes the impacts of China's population policy. The last chapter is devoted to the population aging with an explanation of aging in China and comparison of aging in China with aging in Japan.

Evidence-based policy and practice (EBPP) in population health in Australia has been promoted largely without sound research. In response, this thesis presents a series of studies undertaken to assess and inform enhancement of capacity for EBPP in Australia. It comprises linked studies designed to examine different yet complementary aspects of capacity for EBPP. Research was conducted at various levels of Australian health care system, from local to national, in order to better understand EBPP and to make a series of recommendations about effective and synergistic response.

Introduction: Smoking has been considered as one of the leading preventable cause of lung disease, cardiovascular disease and cancer. China, has 20% of the population in the world, but consumes 30% of the world’s cigarette and has suffered 1 million deaths per year from tobacco use. The workplace is an important field for smoking control, but there are relatively few reports on the current situation of workplace smoking control with the exception of reports from North American countries. Objectives: This project aims to investigate the effectiveness of workplace smoking control policy on smokers’ behavior in Asian population, mainly the comparison of smoke free policy, smoke restriction ban with no smoking ban, and to identify the potential factors that associated with the compliance of smoking policy. Methods：Articles that are relevant to workplace smoking policy were searched and identified through PubMed and CNKI by using a combination of keywords. Articles that studied the effects of workplace smoking control policy on smoking behavior and the factors that associated the compliance of smoke control policy were included. All studies were conducted in the Asian countries and the outcome measures were current smoking prevalence, daily cigarette consumption, and willingness to quit smoking. Results: Of the 541 studies identified, 11 articles were identified to be relevant and included in this systematic review. Smoking-free policy was showed to be the most effective strategy to enhance the changes in smokers’ behavior. Eight of nine studies that compared smoke free with no smoke ban gave consistent conclusion that smoking free policy could reduce the prevalence of smoking dramatically. It was associated with higher willingness to quit smoking among smokers and could reduce the smokers’ daily cigarettes consumption by 3 to 4 cigarettes per day. There was limited evidence that smoke restriction policy could reduce the prevalence of smokers. Even though smoke restriction policy could reduce daily cigarettes consumption and increased the smokers’ willingness to quit smoking, but the effect was much lower than those in the workplace with smoke free policy. In addition, occupation, such as salesmen and marketing employee, the reason of implementing the smoke control policy(e.g. ‘workplace safety’, ‘maintain good air quality’, ‘reduce ETS in non-smokers’), and lack of knowledge of hazard in cigarettes were the factors contributed to the low compliance of smoke control policy. Conclusion: Overall, workplace smoke-free policy is the most effective way in changing smoking behavior. Workplace smoke-free should be implemented as a public health priority and accompanied with health education and smoking cessation service to assure the compliance.
published_or_final_version
Medicine
Master
Master of Public Health

This thesis examines the origins and impact of fascist population policy. The 'battle for the birthrate' inspired major social and institutional reforms under the dictatorship. Yet the question of why the regime should embark upon a pronatalist campaign remains largely unexplored. The study traces the origins of Mussolini's demographic campaign to the eugenics movement. This thesis begins with an analysis of the meaning of race in Italian scientific culture. A central concern is to show how the debates of prewar science shaped the agenda set by the fascist regime. The first part of this thesis is devoted to a discussion of the theories of prominent eugenicists. Their arguments provide the key to understanding the wider aims of the Duce's plans for state intervention to boost the birthrate. The thesis then proceeds to an examination of policy implementation. Welfare programmes stood at the centre of fascist population policy. The regime sought to provide encouragements to Italians to increase their reproductive output in the form of substantial health reforms. The second part of the thesis explores the institutional development of the National Organisation for the Protection of Motherhood and Infancy. Created In 1925, ONMI established Italy's first comprehensive national health service for women and children. This section seeks to assess whether the regime built a viable and efficient state apparatus for the mass organisation of welfare. The third part of this thesis takes a closer look at public provision. As a considerable part of ONMI's budget was spent on a campaign to reduce levels of maternal abandonment, this section explores the impact of illegitimacy policy. To assess more fully the achievements of fascist welfare policy, the thesis attempts to describe the continuities and changes in state administration of social assistance from liberalism to fascism. One aim Is to uncover the legacy of Church charity in a Catholic country with a rich beneficent heritage. The transformation of pious institutions into a system of public welfare proceeded very haphazardly in Italy. The liberal state proved too timid a force for the unruly network of private charities which proliferated throughout the kingdom. This thesis will argue that fascism failed to consolidate this inheritance into a tight and efficient system of social services. The pattern of welfare development during the fascist period shows how uneasy and uneven institutional growth remained even under a centralising and modernising dictatorship.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD
Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) continue to rise in South Africa, accounting for 43% of total deaths in 2012. Smoking and a diet high in salt are among the major modifiable risk factors for NCDs that can be addressed through cost-effective policy interventions in the form of regulation or legislation and active multisectoral engagement. Population-based prevalence and mortality data are necessary for monitoring and evaluation such interventions. South Africa has developed a National Strategic Plan for NCDs but there is limited evaluation of NCD policies. Furthermore, there is a need to explore the availability of population-based data and the role that it can play to monitor interventions. Aim: The overall aim of the thesis is to assess the implementation of policies for reducing risk factors for chronic NCDs in South Africa, and to explore the role of population-based data in supporting environmental and policy approaches to prevent NCDs. The thesis will also examine whether there are differences in urban and rural settings in the implementation of tobacco control and salt reduction regulation as well as the barriers to implement the National Strategic Plan for prevention of NCDs. Methods: Multiple methods of data collection were used. A desk review of policies to address NCDs in South Africa was undertaken and semi-structured interviews with the NCD policymakers and managers in two provinces (the Eastern Cape and Western Cape) were undertaken, to explore challenges and successes of implementation of the NSP. The Cross-sectional baseline questionnaire and quantified food frequency data from the PURE study were used to determine the prevalence of smoking and the intakes of sodium and potassium in a selected urban and a rural community. Data collected using a validated community audit tool was used to assess the physical environment related to tobacco as well as questionnaire data from face-to-face interviews about perceptions about tobacco use in the urban and rural communities. Trends in mortality from tobacco related and high salt consumption related conditions together with prevalence data from national health surveys were reviewed to assess the health impact.

This thesis aims to understand the formation of the Russian identity in the Kazakh Steppes by examining the migration flows of Russians and the affects of state policies and pattern of inter-ethnic relations between the Russians and the Kazakhs during different historical periods. Constructionist theoryhas guided the analysis of the research. The Russian identity formation in the Kazakh Steppes is examined within the contextof three consequtive historical periods that correspond to fundamental social, political and administartive re-structuring. Firstis the period of the Russiam Empire, during which the resettlement policy of the Empire shattered the traditional social structures of the native Kazakhs and entailed extensive inter-ethnic contact between the Russians and the Kazakhs. Second period corresponds to the period of the Soviet Union, which experianced the intensification of Russian settelments in the Kazakh Steppes. The soviet policy, while encouraging Russianness as a component of soviet identity, atthe same time, granted autonomy todiverse ethnic entites. The third period, which correspondes to the current era starting with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, witnessed the emergance of Kazakh State. A large portion of the Russian population in the Kazakh Steppes remained in the independent republic of Kazakhstan and face a new challenges in tearms of identity formation due to the Kazakh nation building policies.

In China, April 13, 1989 was marked as the "1.1 Billion Population Day." Though it has become the first "demographic billionaire" in the world, China has obtained remarkable results in population control. According to the statement issued by China's National Bureau of Statistics in 1987, the natural population growth rate dropped from 25.83 per thousand in 1970 to 11.28 per thousand in 1985. This has been viewed as an achievement not previously seen in any other population. In the past four decades, the Chinese government has adopted a population policy to organize the fertility transition in a planned way through education, motivation and persuasion. Five communication campaigns have been instituted to implement the policy. The successive family planning campaigns have played a vital role in educating and persuading individuals to accept the new fertility norms advocated by the government. In the communication processes of these campaigns, the strategies used have changed from the media-oriented strategy of the first campaign, to the introduction of an interpersonal approach in the second followed by an integration of media, interpersonal and organisational communication in the three latest campaigns. The integration of the media and interpersonal communication approaches was achieved through group discussion sessions and home visits, in which media messages were mediated and interpreted as a reinforcement to media impact. The group dynamics in the interpersonal communication has played an important role in changing individuals' attitudes towards and behaviour of family planning. As a campaign is an organized activity which requires organizational channels to ensure the conduct of the activity and the flow of information, a well-established organization hierarchy for family planning work has facilitated the management of family planning campaigns and also been regarded as a fundemental element to the success of the later campaigns.

Over the past few decades, falling birth rates and increasing life expectancies have threatened the viability of social security programs all across the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In this dissertation, I attempt to shed some light on the extent of the crisis that the social security program in the United States (U.S.) currently faces, and I also recommend one possible reform policy. In the first essay, I provide an alternative estimate of the impact of population aging on the future social security benefits in the U.S., while accounting for the household-level and macroeconomic adjustments to population aging. Using a general equilibrium life-cycle consumption model with endogenous retirement and incomplete private annuity markets, I find that once these adjustments are accounted for, population aging in the U.S. is likely to cause a significantly smaller decline in the future benefits as compared to the commonly reported estimates that suggest a 25-33% decline. I also find that ignoring either the household retirement mechanism or the aggregate factor price adjustment mechanism could lead to a roughly comparable overestimation of the decline in the future retirement benefits. In the second essay, I ask what should be the optimal or welfare-maximizing social security (OASI) tax rate in the U.S. under such demographic developments. I examine this question using a heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium model of life-cycle consumption and labor supply, where social security provides partial insurance against unfavorable efficiency realizations that occur before the agents enter the model. I first calibrate the model such that the current OASI tax rate in the U.S. maximizes social welfare under the current demographics, and then I incorporate empirically reasonable population projections into the calibrated model. Finally, I search for the tax rates that are optimal under such projections. I find that the tax rates that maximize welfare under such projections are about 2 to 5 percentage points higher than the current rate. I also find that a large part of the tax burden of population aging is picked up by the households with relatively favorable efficiency realizations. Finally, the model also predicts that population aging and the optimal tax response may imply a decline in the projected retirement benefits, but of a magnitude smaller than when the tax rate is held unchanged at the current level.

The paper discuss the institutionalization of the mandatory teaching of theAfro-Brazilian history and culture, which is understood as a curricular policy that aims to promote the racial equality and that is a reference in the fight for an anti-racist education in Brazil. This is an exploratory study which was done from the academic production and the legislation concerning the theme. To achieve a better understanding of the Black Brazilian Movements’ anti-racist fight trajectory, we debated with the epistemic perspective of the Latin-American Post-Colony studies. We question the fundamentals and the context of the elaboration of an education policy for ethnical-racial relations in Brazil, in the group of policies that promote the racial equality; and we discuss the legal devices that institutionalize the educational policy.
El trabajo discute la institucionalización de la obligatoriedad de la enseñanzade historia y cultura afro-brasileña, comprendida como política curricular de promoción de igualdad racial y como referente en la lucha por una educación antirracista en Brasil. Se trata de un estudio exploratorio realizado a partir de la producción académica y de la legislación referente al tema. Para comprender mejor la trayectoria de la lucha antirracista de los movimentos negros brasileños, dialogamos con la perspectiva epistémica de los estudios post-coloniales latino-americanos. Problematizamos los fundamentos y el contexto de elaboración de una política de educación para las relaciones étnico-raciales en Brasil, en el conjunto de las políticas de promoción de la igualdad racial; y discutimos losdispositivos legales que institucionalizan la política educacional.
O trabalho discute a institucionalização da obrigatoriedade do ensino de históriae cultura afro-brasileira, compreendida como política curricular de promoção da igualdade racial e como referencial na luta por uma educação antirracista no Brasil. Trata-se de um estudo exploratório realizado a partir da produção acadêmica e da legislação referente ao tema. Para melhor compreender a trajetória da luta antirracista dos movimentos negros brasileiros, dialogamos com a perspectiva epistêmica dos estudos pós-coloniais latino-americanos. Problematizamos os fundamentos e o contexto de elaboração de uma política de educação para as relações étnico-raciais no Brasil, no conjunto das políticas de promoção da igualdade racial; e discutimos os dispositivos legais que institucionalizam a políticaeducacional.

To securitise an issue is to elevate it above politics to security status. At the global level, population growth has been securitised by a number of change agents. They have arrived at an understanding of population growth as existentially threatening and of population control as the best solution. This transformative process took place during the twentieth century and was enabled largely by the United Nations. However, in some Muslim states and societies where population growth is potentially threatening and securitisation of it is necessary, Islamic factors and agents might prevent this from happening. Events and experiences suggest that population control is antithetical to Islam. Muslim states and societies tend to experience higher growth and fertility rates than their non-Muslim counterparts. Furthermore, some Islamic agents have vocally opposed global and national population control objectives. Because of these two occurrences, Islam is assumed to be pro-natalist and anti-population control. It is also assumed that Islam is causal to high fertility and growth and the failure of control efforts. But is this necessarily true? Is population control antithetical to Islam? Moreover, will Islam and its agents prevent the securitisation of population growth by Muslim states and societies? These questions are explored through the case studies of Iran and Pakistan.

Background Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), particularly cardiovascular disease, are the leading cause of death worldwide. Excess sodium intake (in the form of salt) is a major contributor to high blood pressure, which in turn increases cardiovascular risk. Based on the totality of evidence showing the adverse health effects of excess salt intake, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that adults should consume less than 5 grams per day (equivalent to 2 grams of sodium). In 2010, nearly all countries, comprising 99% of the world’s adult population, had mean population salt intakes above the WHO recommended level. The main sources of salt vary between different populations. In high-income countries consuming predominantly Westernised diets, the majority of salt comes from processed and packaged foods. Whereas in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), or among people consuming mostly Asian diets, a considerable portion comes from salt added by the consumer during preparation, cooking or eating (known as discretionary salt). Interventions and policies to reduce salt intake need to be tailored to target the main sources of salt consumed by different populations. There are several potential population-level interventions ranging from individually-oriented, behaviour change interventions, to more upstream structurally-oriented interventions that aim to improve the environments, settings and circumstances in which food and salt intake occur. In 2013, the WHO called for all Member Countries to reduce average population salt intake by 30% by 2025, as one of nine priorities to achieve a 25% reduction in premature deaths from NCDs. Whilst there have been a few high-income countries that have reduced population salt intake, it is unknown whether these interventions are feasible and effective in different settings, including LMICs where 84% of salt-related CVD deaths occur. The overall aim of this thesis was therefore, to build evidence on how governments and policy makers can select and adapt population salt reduction interventions and policies that are most likely to succeed in their local contexts. Methods A knowledge synthesis framework developed by the National Collaborating Center on Healthy Public Policy to identify interventions or policies that are most likely to succeed within a specific context, was used to guide the research conducted in this thesis. The components of the framework were adapted and addressed through a mixed methods approach in four phases. Phase One: Collate interventions and policy options adopted by governments to lower salt intake. This was done through a comprehensive review of published and grey literature, and a survey of country program leaders worldwide to identify national interventions and policies implemented by governments to lower population salt intake. Phase Two: Synthesise data on the effectiveness and implementation of different interventions. This was done through two systematic reviews. The first established the effectiveness of different interventions to lower salt intake at a population level (including sub national, community or large groups of individuals) and identified information about intervention implementation, through an established Medline search of recent studies. A subsequent review further investigated the effectiveness of behaviour change interventions (alone as opposed to as part of a multifaceted intervention) in improving population salt intake or behaviours, including the characteristics of effective interventions based on a search of six peer-reviewed literature databases and grey literature. Phase Three: Establish a research method that generates data about the implementation and context of interventions to facilitate better adaptation of interventions for different settings. This involved the development of a protocol for the process evaluation of a complex salt reduction strategy to generate information about the implementation of each intervention component and examine how the context influences both implementation and effects. Phase Four: Evaluate the effects and implementation of evidence-informed salt reduction interventions in a different setting. This involved an evaluation of the effects of a national salt reduction strategy developed based on successful interventions in high-income countries, on salt intake in Samoa (a lower-middle income country). This was done through repeat nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys measuring 24-hour urinary sodium excretion. Lastly, the implementation and contextual influences of the interventions were examined through a mixed methods process evaluation to interpret the observed effects. Main Findings National interventions and policies implemented by governments to reduce salt intake Seventy-five countries worldwide (34 in LMICs) had adopted a national strategy to lower salt intake in 2014 and all except five were multi-faceted, comprising of two or more interventions. There was an absence of a consistent approach but the most common interventions in strategies were consumer education (71), followed by engagement with the food industry to reformulate products (61) and interventions in public institutions (54). Effectiveness and implementation of population salt reduction interventions Most national salt reduction strategies that successfully lowered salt intake are multi-component comprising of structural changes to influence the food supply and interventions to change behaviour, however most of this knowledge comes from a handful of high-income countries. Similarly, existing evidence from studies of sub national or community-level interventions suggests that structural interventions that target upstream environmental influences such as food reformulation with salt content targets are more likely to result in improved salt related outcomes, than behaviour change interventions, however, the majority of studies were conducted in high-income countries. A more detailed investigation of the effectiveness of solely behaviour change interventions to lower population salt intake in different settings found whilst behaviour change interventions improved salt-lowering behaviours (self-reported) most of the time, less than half of studies demonstrated reductions in daily salt intake as measured by 24-hour urine. Furthermore, the cost of implementing behaviour change interventions with adequate reach and dose, across the population may not be sustainable. Together the systematic reviews in this thesis revealed a lack of literature about the implementation process of salt reduction strategies, core intervention components and the context in which these were implemented. To address this gap, we developed a protocol for process evaluations of complex salt reduction strategies to facilitate collection of data on intervention implementation (reach, dose, adoption, fidelity and costs), mechanisms of impact and contextual influences on the intervention, which can be used to optimise future interventions. Effects and implementation of an evidence-informed national salt reduction strategy in a lower-middle income Pacific Island Country, Samoa Translating evidence of effective salt reductions interventions from high-income countries for implementation in LMICs proved challenging. The 18-month, government-led national salt reduction strategy in Samoa, which was based on successful interventions used mostly in high-income countries, did not lead to a significant reduction in salt intake. However, understanding why there was a null effect on salt intake through the process evaluation has highlighted key areas that can improve future transferability of salt reduction interventions to different settings. This includes the lack of technical feasibility, acceptance and resources for full implementation of the structural interventions. This suggests the importance of selecting structural salt reduction interventions with greater consideration of implementation within the local context. In addition, contextual barriers such as the limited availability of low salt healthy foods compared to unhealthy foods and the presence of unregulated street food vendors limited the effect of education interventions and mandatory salt standards for foods sold in schools respectively, signifying the need to adapt interventions to suit the context. Conclusion The research conducted in this thesis highlighted the importance of tailoring salt reduction interventions for the local context and has added evidence on how population salt reduction interventions can be adapted to different settings, to improve public health worldwide. However, the application of the knowledge synthesis framework has further highlighted gaps in the evidence about the implementation and context of salt reduction interventions, which possibly hinders holistic assessment of what interventions are most likely to successfully lower population salt intake in specific settings. The combined use of systematic reviews, quantitative and qualitative research methods in this thesis shows structurally-oriented interventions that target the main sources of salt in the diet are likely to be effective and essential, in lowering salt intake in countries where a considerable portion of salt consumed comes from processed or prepared foods. However, low implementation fidelity and lack of adaptation of such interventions to suit the context can impede intervention impact. In view of the need for urgent action, given that most countries worldwide are not on track to achieve the targeted 30% reduction in salt intake by 2025 for the prevention and control of NCDs, the research suggests two key actions. Firstly, as well as understanding the main sources of salt in the diet, governments and policy makers need to identify potential contextual factors that are likely to affect the implementation and effects of structural salt reduction interventions. They then need to focus on selecting and adapting the structural interventions that are most feasible, acceptable and affordable to implement in full within their local context (not just what is most effective in other contexts). Secondly, governments and policy makers need to undertake process evaluations of salt reduction interventions, ideally from the outset of implementation, to examine the implementation processes and contextual influences. The protocol for process evaluation developed as part of this research should facilitate collection of this information, which can then inform necessary adaptations of ongoing interventions to fit the local context in real time. Concurrently, this information advances the evidence on what salt reduction interventions work, how and under what circumstances. This approach is likely to be an efficient way of increasing the impact of salt reduction interventions, which in turn, have the potential to prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths caused by excess salt intake worldwide, each year.

One of the indicators that characterize social policy efficiency is the population health; the last is heavily depends on the state of the environment. Environmental pollution influence health quality resulting in increased diseases and mortality. Prolonged exposure to air pollution may lead to irritation, bronchitis, asthma, heart diseases, cancer at al. (Brunekreef et al., 1995; Hammitt et al., 2006; Neidell, 2004; Pope, 2007). Human health depends on the state of the environment. According to the World Health Organization (WHO, 1994): “Environmental health comprises those aspects of human health, including quality of life, that are determined by physical, biological, social and psychological factors in the environment”. Environmental health is related to the theory and practice of adverse factors influence minimization.