Dissertations / Theses: 'Political modelling'

1

Fang, Anjie. "Analysing political events on Twitter : topic modelling and user community classification." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2019. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/41135/.

Full text

Abstract:

Recently, political events, such as elections or referenda, have raised a lot of discussions on social media networks, in particular, Twitter. This brings new opportunities for social scientists to address social science tasks, such as understanding what communities said, identify- ing whether a community has an influence on another or analysing how these communities respond to political events online. However, identifying these communities and extracting what they said from social media data are challenging and non-trivial tasks. In this thesis, we aim to make progress towards understanding 'who' (i.e. communities) said 'what' (i.e. discussed topics) and 'when' (i.e. time) during political events on Twitter. While identifying the 'who' can benefit from Twitter user community classification approaches, 'what' they said and 'when' can be effectively addressed on Twitter by extracting their discussed topics using topic modelling approaches that also account for the importance of time on Twitter. To evaluate the quality of these topics, it is necessary to investigate how coherent these topics are to humans. Accordingly, we propose a series of approaches in this thesis. First, we investigate how to effectively evaluate the coherence of the topics generated using a topic modelling approach. The topic coherence metric evaluates the topical coherence by examining the semantic similarity among words in a topic. We argue that the semantic similarity of words in tweets can be effectively captured by using word embeddings trained using a Twitter background dataset. Through a user study, we demonstrate that our proposed word embedding-based topic coherence metric can assess the coherence of topics like humans. In addition, inspired by the precision at k information retrieval metric, we propose to evaluate the coherence of a topic model (containing many topics) by averaging the top-ranked topics within the topic model. Our proposed metrics can not only evaluate the coherence of topics and topic models, but also can help users to choose the most coherent topics. Second, we aim to extract topics with a high coherence from Twitter data. Such topics can be easily interpreted by humans and they can assist to examine 'what' has been discussed on Twitter and 'when'. Indeed, we argue that topics can be discussed in different time periods and therefore can be effectively identified and distinguished by considering their time periods. Hence, we propose an effective time-sensitive topic modelling approach by integrating the time dimension of tweets (i.e. 'when'). We show that the time dimension helps to generate topics with a high coherence. Hence, we argue that 'what' has been discussed and 'when' can be effectively addressed by our proposed time-sensitive topic modelling approach. Next, to identify 'who' participated in the topic discussions, we propose approaches to identify the community affiliations of Twitter users, including automatic ground-truth generation approaches and a user community classification approach. To generate ground-truth data for training a user community classifier, we show that the mentioned hashtags and entities in the users' tweets can indicate which community a Twitter user belongs to. Hence, we argue that they can be used to generate the ground-truth data for classifying users into communities. On the other hand, we argue that different communities favour different topic discussions and their community affiliations can be identified by leveraging the discussed topics. Accordingly, we propose a Topic-Based Naive Bayes (TBNB) classification approach to classify Twitter users based on their words and discussed topics. We demonstrate that our TBNB classifier together with the ground-truth generation approaches can effectively identify the community affiliations of Twitter users. Finally, to show the generalisation of our approaches, we apply our approaches to analyse 3.6 million tweets related to US Election 2016 on Twitter. We show that our TBNB approach can effectively identify the 'who', i.e. classify Twitter users into communities by using hashtags and the discussed topics. To investigate 'what' these communities have discussed, we apply our time-sensitive topic modelling approach to extract coherent topics. We finally analyse the community-related topics evaluated and selected using our proposed topic coherence metrics. Overall, we contribute to provide effective approaches to assist social scientists towards analysing political events on Twitter. These approaches include topic coherence metrics, a time-sensitive topic modelling approach and approaches for classifying the community affiliations of Twitter users. Together they make progress to study and understand the connections and dynamics among communities on Twitter.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

2

Hannemann, Henrik Jonathan Nicolai. "Conservation planning in Europe : ecological, financial, and political challenges." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2017. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:6180deed-8bab-4932-8a7c-e5bd54f765ed.

Full text

Abstract:

Conservation of biodiversity and sustainable resource use are central aims within ecology. This thesis focuses on the current data and environmental frameworks used to support these aims across different states in Europe. In particular, it examines the impact of geo-political boundaries on data-use, funding and planning for temporal movement of species in response to climate change. It also examines the current environmental framework agreements in Europe and their capacity to deal with trans-boundary aspects of biodiversity change. Through examination of European biodiversity datasets, undertaking species distribution modelling of forest taxa, examining economic data, palaeo-ecological data, and assessing international environmental framework agreements, this thesis identifies a number of important knowledge gaps. Probably unsurprisingly, the distribution of biodiversity in Europe mostly does not match political entities, all of which have individual aims, financial resources, and biodiversity management regimes in place. All have a significant impact on biodiversity conservation planning because i) the use of geo-politically truncated data influences modelling predictions, ii) financial commitment to biodiversity conservation varies between countries influencing success outcomes, iii) biodiversity persistence in current and future climate change does not recognise geo-political boundaries, and iv) many of the key environmental frameworks are implemented within countries and do not considering trans-boundary issues. Overall these findings significantly improve the understanding of conservation and resource management in Europe and fill a number of important knowledge gaps. They highlight the importance of appropriate trans-boundary ecological datasets and the need for more consistency across Europe in financial resources for biodiversity conservation. They also highlight the need for appreciation of areas of high-persistent biodiversity regardless of geo-political boundaries and environmental framework agreements that support cross-border conservation measures.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

3

Khan, Saad Ullah. "Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2014. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/79325/1/Saad_Khan_Thesis.pdf.

Full text

Abstract:

This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

4

TROMBETTA, FEDERICO. "MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TYPE OF GOVERNMENT." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/6224.

Full text

Abstract:

Questa tesi contribuisce alla letteratura di economia politica attraverso l’analisi degli effetti di una crisi economica sulla tipologia di governo. In particolare, ci si concentra su due tipologie di governo che possono essere viste come anomalie empiricamente correlate a fenomeni di crisi economica e finanziaria: il populismo e la tecnocrazia. Dopo una rassegna critica della letteratura esistente, si sviluppano due distinti modelli di teoria dei giochi. Il primo analizza il populismo nel contesto di una relazione principale-agente tra l’elettore e il politico. Concentrandosi su come la probabilità che si affermi un governo populista è influenzata dai parametri che catturano la situazione economica del Paese, si dimostra che, in un contesto di crisi economica, è più probabile che il governo attui provvedimenti populisti. Il secondo modello spiega la comparsa di un governo tecnocratico (e in parte anche la sua stabilità) in un sistema politico in cui gli agenti principali sono due partiti e, in alcuni casi, un gruppo di tecnocrati. Qui si prova che il governo tecnocratico ha più probabilità di emergere in un contesto di crisi economica, quando il parlamento è equamente diviso e quando la distanza ideologica tra i due partiti è sufficientemente grande.
This thesis contributes to the literature on theoretical political economy analyzing the effects of economic crisis on the types of government. In particular, we focus on two types of government that can be seen as anomalies empirically related with the emergence of financial and economic crisis: populism and technocracy. After a critical survey of the existing literature on those topics, we develop two different game-theoretical models. The first one studies populism in the context of a standard political-agency relationship between a voter and a politician. We see how the likelihood of the emergence of a populist government is affected by parameters representing the economic conditions of a country, and we find that, in a context of economic crisis, the government is more likely to make populist decisions. The second model explains the emergence of a technocratic government (and captures some issues related to its stability) in a post-election partisan politics setting where the main players are two parties and possibly a group of technocrats. We prove that the technocratic government is more likely to emerge in a context of economic crisis, when the parliament is evenly split and the ideological distance between the two parties is big enough.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

5

Urselmans, Linda. "Agent-based modelling of complex systems in political science : social norms and tolerance in immigrant societies." Thesis, University of Essex, 2018. http://repository.essex.ac.uk/22040/.

Full text

Abstract:

Migration is a political issue that has received more attention in recent years. Many questions remain as to how Western societies can successfully absorb migrants- economic arguments have largely been in favour of migration, but the social impact of diversity in previously homogeneous societies has been subject to ongoing debates in social science. Migrant societies are complex social systems with many interacting moving parts. How do rapid migration-changes in society affect the hosts? How do norms of tolerance towards minorities hold up when intergroup con icts emerge? Can segregating behaviour of different population groups be reduced by encouraging different settlement locations for new migrants? The questions address both the physical aspect of migrants entering an already populated space, and the social dimension in which the hosts are adapting their attitudes. I develop a Schelling model using Agent-based modelling to address these questions. I introduce the concept of external migration into an existing society and test how, by varying the kind of migration, introducing diversity affects local tolerance. In the second chapter, I show that large-scale migration results in short-term shocks to the populace, but that these effects are heavily dependent on the population density and how large the native majority is. In Chapter 3 I implement a version of the `contact hypothesis' which stipulates that contact with out-group members increases tolerance and I show that the adaptability increases the importance of native majorities further. In the fourth chapter, I move on to the social norms of tolerance, introducing an ABM in which agents can deceive others by signalling false information about their true attitudes. I show that the emergent pattern of these behaviours can lead to a false consensus effect in which the perceived majority public opinion is unstable. The thesis is able to generate societies that bear many similarities with the Western countries of today and can suggest explanations for the mechanisms that lead to changes in public opinion more negative towards migration, as well as reasons for growing separation of different population groups.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

6

Acik-Toprak, Necla. "Civic engagement in Europe : a multilevel study of the effect of individual and national determinants on political participation, political consumerism and associational involvement." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2009. http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:94093.

Full text

Abstract:

Active and engaged citizens are the backbone of a strong democracy and a vibrant civil society. Yet recent trends of low electoral turnout in Europe and decreasing levels of civic engagement have called into question the legitimacy of governments and the stability of democracy in the long term, particularly in Europe. Against the background of such developments this research sets out to provide a comparative study of civic engagement and analyse the variations in civic engagement between countries. The study is mainly based on the analysis of the European Social Survey 2002, covering 35,000 individuals from 19 European countries and applies advanced statistical modelling techniques including Multiple Correspondence Analysis MCA) and Multi-level modelling. Although there is a good deal of research examining civic engagement using individual level data or aggregate level data, very few studies have combined both approaches. This study addresses this gap and applies multi-level modelling to examine the relative importance of an individual’s socio-demographic characteristics and his/her country in determining levels and types of civic engagement. Thus, it has the advantage of identifying whether civic engagement is significantly affected by country characteristics or the converse, whether a person’s characteristics (age, education, social class etc.) are all that is needed in order to account for the variations in civic engagement. The innovative application of MCA to explore indicators of civic engagement has led to the identification of three dimensions of civic engagement; political activities, political consumerism and associational involvement. Moreover, by projecting all activities on a two-dimensional map it become evident that citizens who tend to carry out ‘individual’ types of political consumerism such as ‘buycotting’, boycotting and signing petitions are also more likely to be involved in New Social Movement organisations. These significant results shed new light on activities usually regarded as ‘individualistic’ type of activities and suggest viewing them in the context of a wider array of collective actions. Furthermore, in addition to the standard contextual measures such as economic development, welfare regime, income inequality, and levels of democracy, this study introduced two innovative policy measures. To consider the impact of government policies on levels of civic engagement measures of governments’ support of the voluntary sector and civic education at school (comparing the education policies of 19 European countries from 1945-2002) were developed. The results confirmed the importance of both individual level characteristics as well as country level characteristics in explaining civic engagement in Europe. However, differences between countries were reduced to a greater degree when contextual factors were introduced. Particularly the welfare state, showed the greatest effect. This implies that socio-economic conditions and in particular social policy and the degree to which it reproduces egalitarian structures determine to a great extent citizen involvement. In other words the results of this study suggest that the national context matters and that governments can and do shape the nature and levels of civic engagement.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

7

Loughran, Thomas Ivan Powell. ""A values based electorate?" : how do voters in West European democracies convert their political values into vote choice preferences?" Thesis, University of Manchester, 2016. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/a-values-based-electoratehow-do-voters-in-west-european-democracies-convert-their-political-values-into-vote-choice-preferences(b1716c93-c730-41e8-acfb-846bb2d51fcd).html.

Full text

Abstract:

It has long been argued that underlying values should hold a central role in political analysis. This would seem particularly relevant in an era of de-alignment and catch-all parties in which political actors often make direct values orientated appeals to the electorate. With the expansion in appropriate data and measures available to empirical researchers, the last two decades have seen a substantial increase in the number of studies directly addressing the values-voting relationship. Values based explanations of vote choice have contributed to a more nuanced understanding of the processes underlying voter preferences and the structure of public opinion within democratic electorates. This existing empirical literature has generally focused on analysing the role of values on voting in single electoral contexts. While this approach has generated many useful findings that establish the role of values in differentiating political choice, it has only partially explored the contextual mechanisms through which values influence vote choice. This is necessary in order to understand under what political conditions values are likely to become more relevant to vote choice decisions. This thesis is an attempt to address three aspects of this gap in the cross-national research literature on values and voting using analyses of data from the 1990 and 2008 waves of the European Values Survey. Firstly it provides a cross-national analysis of core political values that enables a comparison of the role of values in structuring electoral competition across 15 West European countries. Secondly, it estimates the role that left-right political identity has in mediating the influence of values on vote choice using a structural path model. This provides a cross-national test of this mechanism and therefore assesses variation in the values-voting relationship across different national contexts. Thirdly, the thesis provides a systematic empirical analysis of the influence of political context on the values-voting relationship by testing the effect that macro level system factors, such as polarisation and the number of parties, have on the influence of values. The headline findings of the thesis are that political values are dynamic constructs that can demonstrate subtle variations in the preferences of voters across different electoral contexts. Political values have a multi-dimensional influence on electoral choice; with variation in voter preferences being highlighted by both value differentiation (having opposite preferences for the same value dimension) and emphasis (having a preference for different values). Left-right identity can act as both a mediator and a confounder of political values influence on vote choice. Political context is primarily relevant to the influence of values on voting through the content of supply side party competition as opposed to the structure of that competition. Overall, the study argues the findings show that supply side political context plays a crucial role in defining the parameters and strength of the values-voting relationship in each specific electoral arena.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

8

Lohmann, Dirk. "Sustainable management of semi-arid African savannas under environmental and political change." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2012. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2013/6506/.

Full text

Abstract:

Drylands cover about 40% of the earth’s land surface and provide the basis for the livelihoods of 38% of the global human population. Worldwide, these ecosystems are prone to heavy degradation. Increasing levels of dryland degradation result a strong decline of ecosystem services. In addition, in highly variable semi-arid environments changing future environmental conditions will potentially have severe consequences for productivity and ecosystem dynamics. Hence, global efforts have to be made to understand the particular causes and consequences of dryland degradation and to promote sustainable management options for semi-arid and arid ecosystems in a changing world. Here I particularly address the problem of semi-arid savanna degradation, which mostly occurs in form of woody plant encroachment. At this, I aim at finding viable sustainable management strategies and improving the general understanding of semi-arid savanna vegetation dynamics under conditions of extensive livestock production. Moreover, the influence of external forces, i.e. environmental change and land reform, on the use of savanna vegetation and on the ecosystem response to this land use is assessed. Based on this I identify conditions and strategies that facilitate a sustainable use of semi-arid savanna rangelands in a changing world. I extended an eco-hydrological model to simulate rangeland vegetation dynamics for a typical semi-arid savanna in eastern Namibia. In particular, I identified the response of semi-arid savanna vegetation to different land use strategies (including fire management) also with regard to different predicted precipitation, temperature and CO2 regimes. Not only environmental but also economic and political constraints like e.g. land reform programmes are shaping rangeland management strategies. Hence, I aimed at understanding the effects of the ongoing process of land reform in southern Africa on land use and the semi-arid savanna vegetation. Therefore, I developed and implemented an agent-based ecological-economic modelling tool for interactive role plays with land users. This tool was applied in an interdisciplinary empirical study to identify general patterns of management decisions and the between-farm cooperation of land reform beneficiaries in eastern Namibia. The eco-hydrological simulations revealed that the future dynamics of semi-arid savanna vegetation strongly depend on the respective climate change scenario. In particular, I found that the capacity of the system to sustain domestic livestock production will strongly depend on changes in the amount and temporal distribution of precipitation. In addition, my simulations revealed that shrub encroachment will become less likely under future climatic conditions although positive effects of CO2 on woody plant growth and transpiration have been considered. While earlier studies predicted a further increase in shrub encroachment due to increased levels of atmospheric CO2, my contrary finding is based on the negative impacts of temperature increase on the drought sensitive seedling germination and establishment of woody plant species. Further simulation experiments revealed that prescribed fires are an efficient tool for semi-arid rangeland management, since they suppress woody plant seedling establishment. The strategies tested have increased the long term productivity of the savanna in terms of livestock production and decreased the risk for shrub encroachment (i.e. savanna degradation). This finding refutes the views promoted by existing studies, which state that fires are of minor importance for the vegetation dynamics of semi-arid and arid savannas. Again, the difference in predictions is related to the bottleneck at the seedling establishment stage of woody plants, which has not been sufficiently considered in earlier studies. The ecological-economic role plays with Namibian land reform beneficiaries showed that the farmers made their decisions with regard to herd size adjustments according to economic but not according to environmental variables. Hence, they do not manage opportunistically by tracking grass biomass availability but rather apply conservative management strategies with low stocking rates. This implies that under the given circumstances the management of these farmers will not per se cause (or further worsen) the problem of savanna degradation and shrub encroachment due to overgrazing. However, as my results indicate that this management strategy is rather based on high financial pressure, it is not an indicator for successful rangeland management. Rather, farmers struggle hard to make any positive revenue from their farming business and the success of the Namibian land reform is currently disputable. The role-plays also revealed that cooperation between farmers is difficult even though obligatory due to the often small farm sizes. I thus propose that cooperation needs to be facilitated to improve the success of land reform beneficiaries.
Semiaride (halbtrockene) Savannen bedecken große Teile der Erdoberfläche und sichern die Lebensgrundlage von vielen Millionen Menschen. Die häufigste Form der Landnutzung in diesen Trockengebieten ist die Produktion von Vieh in extensiver Weidelandbewirtschaftung. In Folge klimatischer Veränderungen und als Konsequenz aus der teils intensiven Beweidung dieser Trockengebiete kommt es häufig zur Degradierung derselben in Form einer Zunahme von ‚unerwünschter‘ holziger Vegetation auf Kosten von futterverwertbaren Gräsern. Dieser als Verbuschung bezeichnete Prozess hat schwere negative Auswirkungen auf die betroffenen Ökosysteme und ist die Ursache für einen zunehmenden Rückgang der ökonomischen Leistungsfähigkeit der betroffenen Betriebe. In meiner Dissertation befasse ich mich mit den Auswirkungen von Klimawandel und politischen Veränderungen auf die Savannenvegetation im südlichen Afrika und auf die Möglichkeiten für die Nutzung dieser Ökosysteme in Form von Viehwirtschaft. Hierbei möchte ich sowohl das allgemeine Verständnis der ökologischen Zusammenhänge verbessern, als auch Strategien für die nachhaltige Nutzung der Savannen identifizieren und bewerten. Da nicht nur ökologische, sondern auch ökonomische und politische Einflussfaktoren, wie zum Beispiel die umfangreichen Landumverteilungen im Rahmen der Bodenreform im südlichen Afrika auf die tatsächliche Landnutzung wirken, habe ich im Rahmen der Dissertation zudem untersucht, nach welchen Umwelt und Kapitalvariablen sich die Farmer, welche Ihr Land im Rahmen der Bodenreform zugeteilt bekommen haben, bei Ihren Entscheidungen richten. Methodisch verwende ich verschiedene Simulationsmodelle, welche zur Untersuchung der langfristigen Veränderungen von verschiedensten Szenarien (Klimawandel, Landnutzung) geeignet sind. Hierbei habe ich teilweise bestehende Modelle angepasst, aber auch ein neues Modell, welches zur Befragung von Farmern in Namibia verwendet wurde, entwickelt. Meine Dissertation führt im Wesentlichen zu vier Erkenntnissen: Erstens, zeigen meine Ergebnisse, welche große Bedeutung die spezifischen ökologischen Eigenschaften der Bäume und Sträucher in semiariden Savannen für die Vorhersage der Entwicklung dieser Systeme unter Klimawandel hat. Hierbei zeigte sich, dass insbesondere die Sensitivität der Keimlinge gegenüber Trockenheit und Feuer eine entscheidende Rolle spielt. Daraus folgt die zweite wesentliche Erkenntnis: Feuer eignet sich in herausragender Weise, um halbtrockene Savannen vor der Verbuschung zu bewahren. Drittens haben die Rollenspiele mit Farmern in Namibia gezeigt, dass deren Entscheidungen im Wesentlichen von finanziellen Schwierigkeiten und nicht von Umwelteinflüssen getrieben werden. Dennoch zeigten meine Ergebnisse, dass diese Farmer mit Ihrem derzeitigen Verhalten wahrscheinlich nicht zur weiteren Degradierung der Savannenvegetation beitragen. Die vierte, und mit am bedeutendste Erkenntnis aus meiner Arbeit ist, dass konservative Beweidungsstrategien mit geringen und konstanten Viehdichten notwendig sind um semiaride Savannen dauerhaft in ökologisch und ökonomisch nachhaltiger Weise zu Nutzen.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

9

Fuentes, Claudio. "Democracy and incumbency : a mixed method strategy to understand political support from the results of deputies' elections in Chile." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2018. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/democracy-and-incumbency-a-mixed-method-strategy-to-understand-political-support-from-the-results-of-deputiesa-elections-in-chile(6ac1fbde-ae05-432f-b384-ff6406aab0e9).html.

Full text

Abstract:

This doctoral dissertation examines whether incumbency affects democracy, and if it does, how re-election impacts on the political system. This thesis links and extends two theoretical traditions that hardly ever have been combined: political support theory and incumbency theory. Political support theory is used as a proxy to examine democracy from a multidimensional perspective. In this theoretical tradition, there has been a considerable concentration of studies on developed nations, and which take a comparative approach. Also, there is persistently inadequate attention given to measuring the form of a government, with a strong predominance of parliamentarian systems. Likewise, most of the research is focused at the individual level, in where the use of statistical techniques is prevailing, and the mixed methods are, nearly, non-existent. On the other hand, there are no studies that explain incumbency effects on democracy directly. Despite there being plenty of inferences which can be taken from incumbency analysis and its extrapolations about democracy and elections, there is a scarcity of studies that associate both political phenomena. In most cases, scholars analyse incumbency as an advantage in popular elections in developed countries, mainly the U.S. The main argument of this thesis proposes that incumbency has effects on democracy and that those impacts will have adverse consequences on the democratic system. Taking Chile as a case-study, a developing country with a presidential system and with similarities to Western party systems, this research seeks to respond three hypotheses. 1) The categories of support identified by Booth and Seligson in 2009 could, to an extent, be modified by including questions that gauge the role of the presidential institution in the Chilean political system. 2) It is expected that incumbency will be shown to have distinct impacts on democratic political legitimacy. 3) The effect of deputies' re-election on political legitimacy dimensions will depend on the composition of legislative pairs at the electoral district level in Chile: two newcomers, one newcomer and one incumbent, or two incumbents. This investigation uses a mixed method strategy. From a qualitative perspective, I characterise all law bills proposed to the NC to limit the re-elections of public authorities in Chile, between 11th March 1990 and 31st December 2016. In line with this doctoral dissertation's aims, a context analysis is used to analyse the content of draft laws related to incumbency. From a quantitative approach, I examine the legislative incumbency effects on political legitimacy dimensions in Chile, from 2008 to 2014. In line with this doctoral dissertation's aim, a series of statistical techniques are used to analyse the effects of incumbency on political support. The findings suggest that: 1) The effects of incumbency are distributed differently according to the component of political legitimacy. 2) The rotation of political elites (seniority and the circulation of elected deputies) is the most substantial incumbency dimension to explain political support in comparison with the competition dimension. 3) The three indicators based on the margin of victory are only related negatively to support for government management. 4) The HDI has effects on political support, but they were inconsistent. 5) The legislative pair composition produces a moderator effect on incumbency indicators. 6) Politics and ideology play a pivotal role in understanding and explaining political support theory. This research concludes that is necessary to keep expanding studies that relate incumbency and democracy by taking other countries with different electoral systems, that arguments hold by politicians should be adjusted considering evidence, and it is imperative to reduce the perception-facts gap in citizens.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

10

Natalini, Davide. "Estimating the role of scarcity, prices and political fragility in food and fuel riots : a quantitative and agent-based modelling approach." Thesis, Anglia Ruskin University, 2016. http://arro.anglia.ac.uk/701893/.

Full text

Abstract:

Climate and environmental changes are argued to increase the occurrence of conflict. In particular, two types of conflict seem to be driven by underlying environmental processes: food and fuel riots. Although research focussed on understanding the dynamics that cause food riots exists, the evidence is mixed and a solid quantitative analysis on the factors that cause these type of events is missing. Research on fuel riots is currently non-existent. The aim of this research was hence to identify, quantify and simulate the interconnections between scarcity of natural resources, international prices, political fragility and the occurrence of food and fuel riots. The approach implemented was mainly quantitative, with use of statistics, econometrics and Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). These methods allowed a parameterisation of these relationships and inclusion of the results in three different version of an ABM: Food, Fuel and Food and Fuel ABMs. The findings show that national availability of resources does not significantly impact the occurrence of food and fuel riots, while international prices and national political fragility do. Thresholds above which riots are more likely to happen were identified for both the price of food and fuel. For food, volatility was found to have a bigger impact than absolute prices, while for fuel the evidence was mixed and more research is required. In addition, food and fuel riots increase the likelihood of one another. Although the introduction of these parameters in the ABMs did not add to the predictive power of the underlying statistical models, the ABMs form the basis for further developments, in particular as regards the evolution of shocks to the production of resources and consequences in terms of food and fuel riots. This is evidenced by the scenarios developed and implemented in this thesis.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

11

Natalini, Davide. "Estimating the role of scarcity, prices and political fragility in food and fuel riots: a quantitative and agent-based modelling approach." Thesis, Anglia Ruskin University, 2016. https://arro.anglia.ac.uk/id/eprint/701893/1/Natalini_2016.pdf.

Full text

Abstract:

Climate and environmental changes are argued to increase the occurrence of conflict. In particular, two types of conflict seem to be driven by underlying environmental processes: food and fuel riots. Although research focussed on understanding the dynamics that cause food riots exists, the evidence is mixed and a solid quantitative analysis on the factors that cause these type of events is missing. Research on fuel riots is currently non-existent. The aim of this research was hence to identify, quantify and simulate the interconnections between scarcity of natural resources, international prices, political fragility and the occurrence of food and fuel riots. The approach implemented was mainly quantitative, with use of statistics, econometrics and Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). These methods allowed a parameterisation of these relationships and inclusion of the results in three different version of an ABM: Food, Fuel and Food and Fuel ABMs. The findings show that national availability of resources does not significantly impact the occurrence of food and fuel riots, while international prices and national political fragility do. Thresholds above which riots are more likely to happen were identified for both the price of food and fuel. For food, volatility was found to have a bigger impact than absolute prices, while for fuel the evidence was mixed and more research is required. In addition, food and fuel riots increase the likelihood of one another. Although the introduction of these parameters in the ABMs did not add to the predictive power of the underlying statistical models, the ABMs form the basis for further developments, in particular as regards the evolution of shocks to the production of resources and consequences in terms of food and fuel riots. This is evidenced by the scenarios developed and implemented in this thesis.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

12

Aljadani, Abdussalam Salem. "Modelling the economic and political factors of optimum currency area theory for the adoption of the single currency project in Gulf Cooperation Council." Thesis, De Montfort University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2086/16351.

Full text

Abstract:

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is an organisation that has for a long time had a regional policy to create an economic as well as a political bloc. The theory of optimum currency areas provides the economic foundation for this research. Previous studies focused largely on the eight prerequisites of an optimum currency area. Political events in the Gulf region for the decade up to 2016 have underscored the importance of political factors in delaying the commencement of a single currency area in the GGC member nations. Therefore, this research looks at the political and historic factors affecting greater economic integration. To achieve a better understanding of the economic and political context and relationships the research uses a mixed research methodology. The qualitative research aspect uses an interview instrument for data collection, with content analysis as the technique for data analysis. The quantitative research segment relies on secondary data from the GCC and international financial agencies, and tests for cointegration. Cointegration tests are an econometric technique, which allows the testing of hypotheses, and the cointegration of economic relationships contained in a model involving non-stationary stochastic variables. The cointegration test is able to determine a stable long-term relationship among multiple economic series/variables (Shin, 1994); it is valuable for testing and estimating macroeconomic model where long-run relationships among variables affect present/future observed values. As a contribution to optimum currency theory and economic integration, the research proposes a politico-economic framework (PEF) as the ideal framework for understanding the dynamics of the common currency agenda in the Arab Gulf Region with specific reference to the GCC. The research contributes to an existing body of knowledge on a GCC single currency region by providing the empirical evidences for delay in implementing a single currency. The delay of a single currency is mainly due to political factors. Regarding the economic factors the study found that there are indications of cointegration among the factors; while the political factor has a complex dynamic linked to fear of losing autonomy over monetary and fiscal policy measures and fear of surrendering sovereignty to supra-national institutions on the one hand compared to security concerns. On the other hand, the finding indicates that there is a strong historical pressure supporting the concept of a single currency system in the Gulf States because of its religious and cultural connection to Muslim countries based on the Dinar currency. The research concludes with far reaching recommendations on the circumstances needed to carry forward the GCC single currency. The main finding in this thesis is that the delay in achieving the single currency is purely due to lack of political will not the economic convergence in the GCC countries.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

13

van, Hoef Yuri. "Modelling friendship between elite political actors : interpreting the relationships of Schmidt and Giscard d'Estaing, Kohl and Mitterrand, Thatcher and Reagan, and Bush and Major." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2018. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/22485/.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis investigates the possibility that friendship is not only possible between elite actors, but that it also plays an explanatory role in their actions (and thus politics more generally). Part I of the thesis develops a model for the identification of friendship between elite actors. This model suggests that political friendship can be seen to exist between elite actors when five key components are seen to be present: (1) affect (2) a grand project (3) altruistic reciprocity (4) moral obligations, and (5) equality. Moreover, not only does the model confirm the presence of friendship, it also shows how friendship can have a role in explaining the actions of elite actors. Part II of the thesis, in order to illustrate the effectiveness of the model, examines, and confirms, the presence of friendship in four recent relationships in contemporary history: Helmut Schmidt and Valéry Giscard d'Estaing (1974-1982); Helmut Kohl and François Mitterrand (1982-1995); Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan (1981-1989), and George H. W. Bush and John Major (1990-1993). It is proposed at the end of the thesis that the model developed here can be extended to look at other cases in politics and international relations.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

14

Ring, Jonathan Jacob. "The diffusion of norms in the international system." Diss., University of Iowa, 2014. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/1386.

Full text

Abstract:

Why do states express support for norms that go against their underlying beliefs? Scholars of policy diffusion have identified four social mechanisms -- coercion, competition, emulation, and learning -- that can lead to the spread of a common practice, a norm, in the international system. I build a formal model of the four mechanisms and apply them to actual cases of norm diffusion. The formal models are anchored by three variables that capture fundamental aspects of international society: hierarchy, neighborhood, and identity. The four different diffusion mechanisms operate on these variables, creating distinct over-time trajectories. Three important dynamic patterns are compared across different model specifications: the shape of the adoption S-curve, the power distribution among expressers and non-expressers, and the degree of regional clustering. I find that the four mechanisms produce unique signatures under many conditions, but that changes to some parameters such as initial number of expressers can obscure the identification of the diffusion mechanism. In the first empirical chapter, I apply the framework to the diffusion of quotas for women's representation. I find that quotas are adopted by weak states, and that the likely source of inspiration for quota adoption are other weak states in the same neighborhood. The empirical pattern in terms of hierarchy, neighborhood, and identity point to competition as the mechanism that drove quota diffusion. Because competition is associated with norm internalization, this finding suggests that the world is really becoming more gender equal. In the second empirical chapter, I change substantive focus to the diffusion of human rights norms. Adoption of human rights treaties seems to be associated with worse human rights behavior, but why do states that ratify human rights treaties so often fail to uphold their obligations?. I find that the Convention Against Torture (CAT) treaty is adopted first by strong states in Europe, then to weaker states in a regionally-contingent pattern. This empirical pattern is most consistent with the emulation mechanism. This implies that the anti-torture norm is not associated with internalization, and solves the previously puzzling ratification-compliance paradox.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

15

Züllich, Gunda. "Migration and development in Senegal : a system dynamics analysis of the feedback relationships." Master's thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2011. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2012/5783/.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis investigates the reciprocal relationship between migration and development in Senegal. Therewith, it contributes to the debate as to whether migration in developing countries enhances or rather impedes the development process. Even though extensive and controversial discussions can be found in the scientific literature regarding the impact of migration on development, research has scarcely examined the feedback relationships between migration and development. Science however agrees with both the fact that migration affects development as well as that the level of development in a country determines migration behaviour. Thus, both variables are neither dependent nor independent, but endogenous variables influencing each other and producing behavioural pattern that cannot be investigated using a static and unidirectional approach. On account of this, the thesis studies the feedback mechanisms existing between migration and development and the behavioural pattern generated by the high interdependence in order to be able to draw conclusions concerning the impact of changes in migration behaviour on the development process. To explore these research questions, the study applies the computer simulation method ‘System Dynamics’ and amplifies the simulation model for national development planning called ‘Threshold 21’ (T21), representing development processes endogenously and integrating economic, social and environmental aspects, using a structure that portrays the reasons and consequences of migration. The model has been customised to Senegal, being an appropriate representative of the theoretical interesting universe of cases. The comparison of the model generated scenarios - in which the intensity of emigration, the loss and gain of education, the remittances or the level of dependence changes - facilitates the analysis. The present study produces two important results. The first outcome is the development of an integrative framework representing migration and development in an endogenous way and incorporating several aspects of different theories. This model can be used as a starting point for further discussions and improvements and it is a fairly relevant and useful result against the background that migration is not integrated into most of the development planning tools despite its significant impact. The second outcome is the gained insights concerning the feedback relations between migration and development and the impact of changes in migration on development. To give two examples: It could be found that migration impacts development positively, indicated by HDI, but that the dominant behaviour of migration and development is a counteracting behaviour. That means that an increase in emigration leads to an improvement in development, while this in turn causes a decline in emigration, counterbalancing the initial increase. Another insight concerns the discovery that migration causes a decline in education in the short term, but leads to an increase in the long term, after approximately 25 years - a typical worse-before-better behaviour. From these and further observations, important policy implications can be derived for the sending and receiving countries. Hence, by overcoming the unidirectional perspective, this study contributes to an improved understanding of the highly complex relationship between migration and development and their feedback relations.
Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht das wechselseitige Verhältnis zwischen Migration und Entwicklung im Senegal. Damit soll ein Beitrag zu der Debatte geleistet werden, ob Migration in Entwicklungsländern den Entwicklungsprozess eher fördert oder verhindert. Während die Frage nach der Auswirkung von Migration auf Entwicklung in der Literatur ausgiebig und kontrovers diskutiert wird, hat sich die Forschung bisher kaum den Rückkopplungen zwischen Migration und Entwicklung gewidmet, obwohl sich die Wissenschaft sowohl darüber einig ist, dass Migration den Entwicklungsprozess beeinflusst, als auch, dass der Entwicklungsstand eines Land das Migrationsverhalten bestimmt. Folglich sind beide Variablen weder abhängig, noch unabhängige, sondern endogene Variablen, die sich gegenseitig beeinflussen und damit Verhaltensweisen produzieren, deren Erforschung ein statischer, unidirektionaler Ansatz nicht gerecht wird. Deswegen fragt diese Arbeit nach den Rückwirkungsmechanismen, die zwischen Migration und Entwicklung existieren, und nach den Verhaltensweisen, die durch die hohe Interdependenz entstehen, um daraus Rückschlüsse auf die Frage ziehen zu können, welchen Einfluss Änderungen im Migrationsverhalten auf den Entwicklungsprozess haben. Um diese Forschungsfragen zu untersuchen wurde die Computersimulationsmethode System Dynamics genutzt und das Simulationsmodell zur nationalen Entwicklungsplanung, das ‚Threshold 21’ (T21), das die Entwicklungsprozesse endogen darstellt und soziale, ökonomische sowie ökologische Aspekte miteinander verknüpft, um eine Struktur erweitert, welche die Gründe und Konsequenzen von Migration abbildet. Dies wurde an den Senegal, ein angemessener Repräsentant der theoretisch interessanten Grundgesamtheit, angepasst. Der Vergleich der mit dem Modell generierten Szenarien, in denen die Intensität der Abwanderung, des Bildungsverlustes, des Bildungsgewinns, der Geldüberweisungen, oder der Abhängigkeit verändert wurden, ermöglichte die Analyse. Die Studie bringt zwei wichtige Ergebnisse hervor. Erstens entwickelt sie ein umfangreiches Modell, das Migration und Entwicklung endogen erklärt und verschiedene theoretische Ansatzpunkte enthält. Dies kann sowohl als Grundlage für weitere Diskussion und Verbesserungen genutzt werden, ist aber vor allem vor dem Hintergrund, dass Migration in den meisten Modellen zur Entwicklungsplanung trotz des relevanten Einflusses nicht integriert ist, ein wichtiges und nützliches Resultat. Zweitens konnte die Analyse des Verhaltens des Modells wichtige Erkenntnisse bezüglich der Rückwirkungsmechanismen zwischen Migration und Entwicklung und der Wirkung von Veränderungen in Migration auf Entwicklung erzielen. Um zwei Beispiele zu nennen, wurde herausgearbeitet, dass Migration sich positiv auf Entwicklung, gemessen am Human Development Index (HDI), auswirkt, dass es sich aber generell um ein sich ausgleichendes Verhalten handelt, da die positiven Einflüsse auf Entwicklung ihrerseits Migration verringern, wodurch die positiven Einflüsse wieder abnehmen. Ebenso konnte festgestellt werden, dass Migration für das Bildungsniveau zunächst eine Verschlechterung, später aber, nach ca. 25 Jahren, eine Verbesserung nach sich zieht. Aus diesen und weiteren Beobachtungen können wichtige Politikempfehlungen für die Sende- und Empfängerländer von Migration abgeleitet werden. Durch das Überwinden der unidirektionalen Betrachtungsweise trägt diese Arbeit somit zu einem besseren Verständnis des hoch komplexen und von Rückwirkungsmechanismen geprägten Verhältnisses zwischen Migration und Entwicklung bei.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

16

Schulz, Paul Christopher. "The value base of water governance in the Upper Paraguay River basin, Mato Grosso, Brazil." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/29548.

Full text

Abstract:

Values have been identified as important factors that guide decision-making and influence preferences in water governance. Comparing the values reflected in water governance decisions with the values held by stakeholders and the general public may inform the debate on the political legitimacy of water governance. The research presented in this PhD thesis draws on multiple research traditions on values, ranging from ecological economics and political ecology to social and environmental psychology, to investigate the value base of water governance in the Upper Paraguay River Basin, in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. It first introduces a novel conceptual framework that integrates these various research traditions and suggests that water governance is closely related to the fundamental values, governance-related values, and assigned values of stakeholders and actors in water governance more generally. These different types of values vary in their level of abstractness, as well as in their ‘locus’, i.e. where the valuing person locates them, and are hypothesised to be closely interrelated in a hierarchical structure, with fundamental values being the most abstract type of values. Water governance, in turn, is defined as the synthesis of water policy (the ‘content’ of decisionmaking), water politics (the ‘power play’ between actors) and water polity (the institutional framework). The thesis then proceeds to apply this novel conceptual framework in a case study on stakeholders’ values in the Upper Paraguay River Basin, and investigates the relationship of their values with their preferences regarding the construction of the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway through the Pantanal wetland, in the south of Mato Grosso. This water infrastructure project has a long history of conflict attached to it, as it might impact the hydrology and ecology of the Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical freshwater wetland and UNESCO biosphere reserve, while at the same time benefitting Mato Grosso’s rapidly growing agribusiness sector by lowering the cost of soybean exports. Based on 24 semi-structured interviews with relevant stakeholders, it was found that supporters and opponents possess different, clashing ‘value landscapes’ (i.e. groups of related values), which may explain the protracted nature of the conflict around the construction of the waterway, while at the same time highlighting political legitimacy deficits of the project. This research was followed up by a quantitative study with members of the general public (n=1067), which sought to measure and test the assumption that we can empirically identify such clashing value landscapes, and their relationship with preferences for or against the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway. Using structural equation modelling (SEM), statistically significant links between people’s values and their preferences in water governance could indeed be found, as well as between different types of values, which formed two contrasting value landscapes. This suggests that water governance conflicts may in part be explained by the presence of different value landscapes among involved actors, which may include even the most abstract level of fundamental values. The research presented in this thesis thus contributes to interdisciplinary debates on the role of values for water governance from multiple conceptual, as well as methodological perspectives. Additionally, through its application to a concrete case study, it highlights the policy relevance of such research, as addressing conflicts in water governance and examining alternative policy options may require a more explicit consideration of the values of the actors involved.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

17

UGOLINI, LORENZO. "Il giornalismo politico. Valori, pratiche e modelli interpretativi." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/1534.

Full text

Abstract:

Lo sviluppo della comunicazione politico-elettorale nel corso degli anni ha profondamente modificato il modo in cui i messaggi provenienti dalla politica giungono al cittadino. Inoltre, l’evoluzione tecnologica del panorama mediatico ha reso sempre più facile, e accessibile a sempre più persone, la possibilità di un dialogo diretto tra il cittadino e l’esponente politico o il suo staff. Da questa dinamica appare escluso il giornalista politico, la cui intermediazione era del tutto necessaria fino a pochi anni or sono, e che oggi si trova a dover far fronte a un rischio di obsolescenza. Un rischio causato anche da pratiche e comportamenti che, nel corso degli anni, hanno contribuito a fare del giornalismo politico un facile bersaglio di accuse di eccessiva connivenza o conflittualità con il sistema politico e con quello economico. In questo lavoro, anche attraverso un’analisi svolta tra Francia e Italia, sosteniamo che l’unica via che il giornalismo può percorrere per evitare il rischio dell’obsolescenza è quella di recuperare, da un lato, i valori fondanti della professione, e dall’altro di innalzare il livello qualitativo, con una grande attenzione per la formazione e per la capacità di padroneggiare gli sviluppi tecnologici, sociali e culturali della società alla quale appartengono.
The development of political communication and election campaigning in the last decades has deeply modified the way in which political messages arrive to the citizens. Moreover, the technological evolution of the media has made easier, and more accessible to every part of the society, the possibility of a direct dialogue between citizens and politicians (or their staff). The figure that seems to be excluded from these dynamics is the political journalist, whose intermediation was necessary until recently, and who now has to face a real risk of obsolescence. This risk is caused also by practices and behaviors that, during the last years, contributed to make political journalism an easy target for accusations of excessive connivance or conflict with the political and the economical system. In this work, through also an analysis realized in France and in Italy, we argue that the only way journalism has, in order to avoid the risk of obsolescence, is to regain, on one hand, the traditional key values of the journalistic profession, and, on the other, to improve the qualitative level, with more attention to professional training and to the technological, social and cultural developments of the society.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

18

Sadiraj, Vjollca. "Essays on political and experimental economics." [Amsterdam] : Amsterdam : Thela Thesis ; Universiteit van Amsterdam [Host], 2002. http://dare.uva.nl/document/62641.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

19

Ernest, David Solomon Harold. "Meaning in Small, Snyders and Pearce : an application of Lotman’s semiotics to ‘coloured’ literature." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/28757.

Full text

Abstract:

In this study, a semiotic point of view of selected literature written by ‘coloured’ writers is examined, using some of the semiotic theories of Jurij M. Lotman, one of the leading Soviet semioticians of the school of Tartu. Selected theories of Lotman are applied to ‘coloured’ literature. These include an examination of poetic language (based on Lotman’s theory of a primary and secondary modelling system), the iconicity of the text, the aesthetics of identity and opposition, the distinction between text and extra-text, and the relationship that exists between the extra-text, culture and code. The literary texts chosen for analysis are works by three contemporary ‘coloured’ writers, namely Adam Small, Peter Snyders and Robert Pearce, who have all contributed poetry, prose and drama to Afrikaans literature in general, and original Afrikaans literature in particular. The selected dramas are Joanie Galant-hulle (Small 1978), Political Joke (Snyders 1983) and Die Laaste Supper in Marabastad (Pearce 1988b)*. These writers’ works span approximately three consecutive decades and their work can be examined for commonality and differences. The three chosen dramas were written five years apart respectively; yet they reveal thematic similarities. The dramas also feature a common ‘deviant’ language code used by ‘coloured’ people and discussed in this study as original Afrikaans. This code, which is juxtaposed with standard Afrikaans, is one of the basic areas of interest that motivated the choice of subject for this study. The primary objective of this study is to examine the differentiation that Lotman makes between the various sign systems that operate in natural language (the primary modelling system) and poetic language (a secondary modelling system), and to determine whether these sign systems can be detected and are functional in ‘coloured’ literature. In addition, an investigation is made of the iconicity that operates in poetic language (which, according to Lotman, is the basis for differentiation), and to ascertain whether iconicity occurs in these examples of ‘coloured’ literature and to what extent it influences meaning. In the process, intratextual relations within the poetic text were scrutinised to establish whether the manipulation of language, devices and codes raises any particular expectation in the poetic text, and also to detect whether oppositionally constituted code-systems which set up their own patterns of expectation within the syntactic and lexical levels of the poetic text clash with and contradict prior expectations. In addition, an analysis has been made to determine whether a new understanding of the texts can be reached, based on Lotman’s aesthetics of identity and opposition, and to what extent the reader is forced to collaborate in the modelling process of the texts when the reader’s expectations are undermined by an aesthetics of opposition. The study has successfully corroborated and substantiated all the selected aspects of Lotman’s theory. The differentiation that Lotman makes between the primary and secondary language model is demonstrated especially by the iconicity that operates in poetic language. Examples are abundant in the selected literature and are conspicuous, especially through the manipulation of the language, devices and codes employed by the authors to defamiliarise objects so that they transcend their familiar characteristics and perceptions, and sometimes signify a totally new concept. In this way, readers’ expectations are subverted and they are invited to collaborate in the modelling process of the texts. These techniques are also an integral part of both the text and the extra-text, and their presence justifies Lotman’s claims that the meaning of a literary text cannot be understood outside its cultural or historical context. In retrospect, it can be argued that this research has opened up some additional avenues for an analysis of meaning in ‘coloured’ literature.
Dissertation (MA (English))--University of Pretoria, 2004.
English
unrestricted

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

20

Walther, Daniel. "Till death do us part : a comparative study of government instability in 28 European democracies." Doctoral thesis, Umeå universitet, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-133482.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis is rooted in the research tradition known as coalition politics, where governments, political parties and political institutions are the central focus. The main emphasis here is on government instability and the question of why governments in modern parliamentary democracies often come to an end before the next regular election. In five distinct but interrelated papers, the thesis explores the issue of early government termination and how it is affected by public support, economic developments and the functioning of the state apparatus. The studies included in this thesis generally take a quantitative approach and make use of a dataset that contains 640 governments in 29 European democracies. Their joint goal is to improve our understanding of when early termination happens by introducing and testing new explanatory factors as well as by improving how previously identified factors are modelled. The first paper focuses on Central and Eastern Europe. It shows that the stability of governments in that region is affected by slightly different factors than those that impact on governments in Western Europe. In particular, ideological factors and political institutions are found to be less important in Central and Eastern Europe while the formal power basis of the government and the country’s economic performance matter more. In the second paper, co-authored with Professor Torbjörn Bergman, the state is brought into government stability research. The paper shows that countries with a lower quality of governance and a less efficient public sector have less stable governments. This is mainly because government parties struggle to achieve their policy goals when the state apparatus is inefficient and corrupt. Paper 3, co-written with Associate Professor Johan Hellström, looks at how different types of governments respond to economic challenges. In particular, this paper demonstrates that the same changes in economic circumstances (e.g. increases in unemployment or inflation) have different effects on cabinet stability depending on which type of government is in charge. Single party governments are better equipped to deal with economic changes, because they are better positioned to devise new policy responses without having to compromise with other parties. Coalition governments, in contrast, become significantly more likely to terminate early when the economy takes a turn for the worse. Finally, over the course of two papers I first explore new techniques for analysing polling data and then use them to empirically test whether governments sometimes choose termination as a way to cope with bad poll numbers. Most of the existing techniques for pooling polls and forecasting elections were explicitly designed with two party systems in mind. In Paper 4, I test some of these techniques to determine their usefulness in complex, multiparty systems, and I develop some improvements that enable us to take advantage of more of the information in the data. In the final paper, I combine the two themes of polling and government stability by looking at how changes in government popularity affect the likelihood of premature dissolution. I find that governments, particularly single party governments, do, in fact, use terminations as a strategic response to changes in their popularity among the public. When support is high, governments tend to opportunistically call an early election, whereas they tend to abandon or reshuffle the government when support is low.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

21

Flint, Jonathan Allen. "Strategic restraint : modelling the role of moral weight in modern conflicts." Thesis, University of Hull, 2017. http://hydra.hull.ac.uk/resources/hull:16887.

Full text

Abstract:

Strategic Restraint: Modelling the Role of Moral Weight in Modern Conflicts is a PhD thesis that seeks to make the argument that restraint has a strategic purpose. It begins with a discussion of an understanding of ethics as the negotiation of hierarchies of 'goods' and develops an idea of Primary and Contingent goods, how those goods are decided and the role of morality, ethics and the law in human affairs. Following that is a consideration of strategy, and the nature of war. These discussions begin to form the basis of the following chapters. It develops a model for understanding the nature of war, and using this model makes suggestions about the controlled application of force and the effects of overapplication of force. The construction of the model is supported by examination of military history, concentrating on conflicts in the latter part of the of the 20th century to more recent conflicts. In considering the difficulties the model indicates in this overapplication, the work argues that there is need for the 'artificial' application of perceived mass, and suggests that it is here that the utility of ethical behaviour in warfare can be found for strategy. In using restraint, guided by higher ethical choices which necessarily reduce efficacy, it is argued that there is strategic advantage to be found. This is supported by analyses from modern Counter Insurgency campaigns, where such activity has been undertaken by commanders independently, while attempting to provide a theoretical explanation for the seeming success of these decisions. The work also considers outcomes from applying such strategic choices, from operational and policy concerns to the consequences in interstate relations before, during and after armed conflict.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

22

Skogenäs, Fredric. "Den svenska modellen – avskräckning genom riskspridning?" Thesis, Försvarshögskolan, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-10190.

Full text

Abstract:

Den svenska militärstrategiska doktrinen beskriver att Försvarsmakten i fred ska verka krigsavhållande genom avskräckning. Den avskräckande effekten utgörs av trovärdighet, tillgänglighet samt samarbete med andra stater och organisationer. Delvis kontrasterande beskriver regeringen att den svenska linjen ligger fast avseende militär alliansfrihet. Uppsatsen är teorikonsumerande då den avser att belägga huruvida det militärstrategiska agerandet kan beskrivas som riskspridningsstrategi. Den syftar även till att teoretiskt pröva om riskspridningsstrategi praktiserad av en småstat kan anses vara en trovärdig metod inom ramen för avskräckning. Resultatet visar att det existerar belägg för att Sverige bedriver militär riskspridningsstrategi och att den har förutsättningar att kännetecknas som trovärdig. Uppsatsen finner dock att trovärdigheten kan liknas vid en positiv trend snarare än total uppfyllande av ställda teoretiska kriterier. En central faktor i sammanhanget är alliansfrihetens praktiska yttringar. Ökad trovärdighet på kort sikt bygger på effekten av militära internationella samarbeten.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

23

TRAPASSO, RAFFAELE. "Complexity in Regional Economics. Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Applications." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/230.

Full text

Abstract:

Sebbene le regioni (territori che ospitano comunità integrate di abitanti, attività economiche ed istituzioni) siano diventati attori fondamentali dell'economia internazionale, le scienze economiche non sono ancora in grado di fornire un modello capace di interpretare le dinamiche economiche e fornire supporto alle politiche. Il motivo di questo limite è che gli approcci tradizionali non riescono a modellizare la complessità che caratterizza le economie regionali. Il progetto di ricerca si è dunque posto l'obiettivo di discutere tale complessità e verificare la possibilità di fornire un controfattuale. L'analisi ha tenuto in conto l'eterogeneità degli agenti e l'effetto di shock esogeni. Inoltre si è discusso come, a causa della complessità, i policy-makers siano confrontati alla difficoltà di predisporre politiche capaci di anticipare gli shock endogeni ed esogeni. I risultati teorici sono stati utilizzati, in parte, per analizzare la regione metropolitana di Madrid. In particolare si è analizzata la capacità locale di riprodurre una dinamica di crescita. I risultati indicano che anche regioni che attraversano cicli positivi hanno la necessità di ottimizzare l'utilizzo dei fattori di produzione e specializzare la propria economia in settori sostenuti dalla domanda internazionale. Una eccessiva specializzazione in settori non-tradable può, infatti, mettere in discussione la sostenibilità della crescita.
Regions (territories hosting integrated communities of citizens, firms, and institutions) have become key actors within the International economy, yet conventional economics cannot provide a model to explain local dynamics and to support policy-making. Such limit is due to complexity characterizing regional economies. Therefore, the present research aims at assessing complexity in regions and verifying the possibility of modelling regional economies. to assess regional economies, The research takes into account heterogeneity of agents as well as exogenous shocks. Moreover the research focuses on the effect of complexity on policy-making. Because of complexity, to be effective, regional policy has to take into account local and external shocks. Such theoretical background is partly used to assess the metropolitan region of Madrid. The empirical analysis shows that even a successful region can be challenged by the sustainability of economic growth. To enhance its international competitiveness, the region has to improve the use of local factors of production and to increase its specialization in sectors that are traded on the international market. An excessive specialization in non-tradable goods may, in fact, challenge growth sustainability.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

24

MICHETTI, MELANIA. "Modelling land-using activities for climate change policy: the role of forestry as a mitigation strategy." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/1650.

Full text

Abstract:

Strutturata in 3 articoli, la tesi analizza il ruolo delle foreste all’interno delle politiche climatiche. Il Capitolo 1 valuta diversi tentativi di rappresentazione della mitigazione land-based - di cui il carbonio forestale rappresenta un importante componente - e offre spunti per migliorare la ricerca in quest’ambito. I Capitoli 2 e 3 presentano due diversi approcci modellistici sul ruolo delle foreste nella mitigazione climatica, all’interno di un modello di equilibrio generale computazionale. Entrambi i metodi assumono un impegno unilaterale Europeo nel ridurre del 20% e 30% le emissioni di CO2 entro il 2020. Il primo approccio, sviluppato nel Capitolo 2, viene rifinito nel Capitolo 3, dove le scelte di allocazione della terra risultano pienamente endogene e il carbonio derivante dall’intensificazione e l’estensificazione forestale è modellizzato separatamente. L’attribuzione di un ruolo alle foreste riduce costi della politica climatica, corrispondenti prezzi del carbonio, e l’effetto leakage. I risultati si presentano qualitativamente simili per entrambe le analisi. Nonostante le foreste europee possano alleviare lo sforzo di mitigazione dei settori energy-intensive, la loro contribuzione come unica strategia di abbattimento risulta insufficiente per il raggiungimento dei targets di riduzione delle emissioni. Un miglior risultato si otterrebbe se altre regioni prendessero parte agli accordi di stabilizzazione climatica.
This thesis, structured in 3 Chapters, analyses the role of forests within a climate policy framework. Chapter 1 critically assesses main existing approaches attempting to represent land-based mitigation, of which forest carbon is a prominent component. It offers important insights on aspects to be improved when modelling land-using activity and forestry. Chapters 2 and 3 present two different methods to model the role of forests in climate mitigation within a global computable-general-equilibrium-model (CGE). Both approaches assume Europe independently committed to reduce CO2 emissions of 20% or 30% by 2020. The first methodology, presented in Chapter 2, is further refined in Chapter 3, to render landowners’ choices on land allocation fully endogenous, and to model carbon from forestry intensification and extensification separately. Envisioning a role for forests reduces climate policy costs, the corresponding carbon price, as well as the leakage effect. These outcomes result qualitatively similar in sign for both analysis. Although European forests can alleviate the burden on energy-intensive sectors, their contribution as a stand-alone abatement strategy results insufficient to comply with the emissions reduction targets. A better result would have been reached if other regions were allowed to take part in climate stabilization agreement.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

25

COLOMBO, GIULIA. "Come legare modelli CGE a modelli di microsimulazione: questioni metodologiche ed applicate." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/227.

Full text

Abstract:

Questa tesi offre una descrizione dettagliata di come i modelli di equilibrio generale computazionale (CGE) ed i modelli di microsimulazione possano essere utilizzati congiuntamente, partendo dalla letteratura piú recente sull'argomento, e focalizzando l'attenzione in particolare sulla letteratura riguardante i paesi in via di sviluppo. La ragione principale per la quale questi modelli vengono utilizzati congiuntamente risiede nel fatto che il ricercatore vuole essere in grado di studiare contemporaneamente l'eterogeneità degli agenti economici e la complessità della distribuzione del reddito, ed allo stesso tempo di valutare gli effetti macroeconomici delle riforme. Nell'ultimo capitolo costruiamo un modello CGE-microsimulazione per l'economia del Nicaragua. Esso si rivela particolarmente adatto alla riforma di politica economica che vogliamo simulare: l'accordo di libero scambio commerciale tra i paesi dell'America Centrale e gli Stati Uniti è infatti una riforma di tipo macroeconomico, la quale potrebbe tuttavia avere effetti significativi sulla distribuzione del reddito. Con questo modello analizzeremo quindi gli effetti dell'accordo commerciale con gli Stati Uniti sulla distribuzione del reddito in Nicaragua. I risultati dell'analisi registrano soltanto piccole variazioni sia nelle principali variabili macroeconomiche che nella distribuzione del reddito e negli indici di povertà.
This thesis wants to give an assessment and a detailed description of how Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) and microsimulation models can be linked together, taking inspiration from the current literature, with a special focus concerning the literature on developing countries. The main reason why these models are linked together is that the modeller wants to be able to take into account full agents' heterogeneity and the complexity of income distribution, and at the same time to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the policy reforms. In the last chapter, we build a CGE-microsimulation model for the economy of Nicaragua. This model appears to be particularly suited to the policy reform we are willing to simulate with the model: the Free Trade Agreement of Central American countries with USA is mainly a macroeconomic reform, which on the other hand can have important effects on the distribution of income and on poverty. With such a model we will study the possible changes in the distribution of income in Nicaragua deriving from the Free Trade Agreement with USA. Our analysis finds only small changes both in the main macroeconomic variables and in the distribution of income and poverty indices.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

26

Persson, Aston. "LO och förvandlingen : En komparativ analys av LO:s förmedlade organisationsidentitet mellan 1938, 1955 och 1965." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-432137.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

27

Zanni, Andrea. "Modelli matematici per l'ottimizzazione delle politiche di manutenzione preventiva su base statistica." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2020. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/21011/.

Full text

Abstract:

“Prevenire è meglio che curare” recitava anni fa una nota pubblicità di dentifrici. Ma se l’uso del dentifricio non bastasse, varrebbe la pena visitare ogni tanto il dentista per un controllo? E con quale frequenza, tenuto conto del costo di una visita di controllo, di quello di una visita “non solo di controllo” ma in cui si richiede un intervento a fronte di un “guasto”, della propensione al rischio e delle abitudini igieniche del paziente? In passato sono stati a lungo studiati i problemi di manutenzione e sostituzione dei sistemi soggetti a deterioramento, descritti in numerosi modelli che possono essere classificati in diverse politiche. Ogni politica presenta differenti caratteristiche, vantaggi e svantaggi. In prima analisi si classificano le diverse politiche manutentive esistenti per sistemi a unità singola, per poi mostrare nel dettaglio alcuni modelli matematici di natura probabilistica di supporto alla programmazione della manutenzione nei sistemi di produzione, evidenziando le formule che permettono di confrontare i diversi modelli in termini numerici di costo atteso a lungo termine. Lo scopo della ricerca è dunque l’esposizione e l’analisi dei principali modelli matematici per l’ottimizzazione delle politiche preventive su base statistica; la metodologia impiegata include una revisione sistematica della letteratura esistente, comprensiva di articoli accademici, testi, manuali e report scientifici redatti a partire dai primi studi dei pionieri dell’approccio matematico alla manutenzione (Barlow, Hunter) per poi spingersi fino ai giorni nostri. Il materiale utilizzato deriva dalla ricerca di parole chiave su cataloghi online di articoli scientifici, portali specifici del mondo dell’ingegneria e dalla consultazione di testi universitari. La tesi vuole fornire un contributo alla letteratura esistente sulle politiche manutentive preventive offrendo un’ampia prospettiva sulla situazione attuale di studio ed applicabilità dei modelli teorici analizzati.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

28

Draper, Kelsey. "Modelling human wellbeing for fisheries management: Science, extraction and a politics of nature in the Walvis Bay, Namibia." Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28360.

Full text

Abstract:

Based in Walvis Bay, an industrial fishing town in Namibia on the west coast of southern Africa, this thesis argues that via the logic of neoliberalism, relations between scientific knowledge production, historical labour practices, and political decision-making emerge as a way of managing people and nature in uneven ways. Scientific modelling practices in the form of stock assessments, maintain traction as the technological solution for managing natural resource extraction in Namibia. As such, the dissertation explores the efficacy of computer models in the industrial fishing sector and considers how breakdowns between the scientific, social, and political knowledge worlds can be usefully brought into the conceptual model of the fishery for management. With a shift towards a more inclusive management framework that considers the policy issues as well as translating broad goals into measurable objectives, comes a shift in the logic of what fisheries management is meant to mediate and achieve. The logic is no longer as straightforward as producing an estimate of the amount of fishable biomass, but now must account for market conditions, changing technologies for fishing, and a changing climate and ecology. The human dimension is framed around the concept of wellbeing which in fisheries management emerges as an umbrella term for the social world that is reduced through the logic of neoliberalism to the measurable, enumerable, and indexable social and political implications of the use of Namibia’s natural resources. As one of few ethnographies of Namibia and the only one thus far to address the fisheries sector as a site of study, this dissertation investigates the increased dependence on scientific models in the Namibian hake fishery despite declining fish stocks and increased urban poverty and inequalities. The research contributes to the limited studies done on the political economy of Namibia and the rise of fish as national resource in the postcolony. It investigates the relations at risk in everyday life in Walvis Bay and re-imagines the framing of humans and nature for transformative practices of environmental and economic justice.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

29

Wiklund, Hult Joel. ""Jag står upp för den svenska modellen" : En diskursanalys av hur den svenska modellen konstrueras i riksdagens partiledardebatter." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statsvetenskapliga institutionen, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-352202.

Full text

Abstract:

‘The Swedish model’ is a term which has a long history in the Swedish political debate. In recent years, the term has often been contested in terms of what it actually means; it has even been accused of being inherently meaningless. The purpose of this thesis is thus to examine how meaning is constructed in relation to the Swedish model through examining statements by the party leaders of the two biggest Swedish parties, the Social Democrats and the Moderates, during 2009, 2014 and 2018. Through applying aspects of the theoretical framework laid out by Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe to articulations of the Swedish model in party leader debates in the Swedish parliament, chains of equivalence and discourses centered around nodal points are constructed. A distinction can be drawn between several discourses, the threats to the model that they emphasize, and their construction of liberty and safety in relation to the Swedish model.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

30

BONDZIE, ERIC AMOO. "SAGGI SULLA TRASMISSIONE DELLA POLITICA MONETARIA E FISCALE NEI PAESI IN VIA DI SVILUPPO IN PRESENZA DI SHADOW ECONOMY." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/37375.

Full text

Abstract:

Gli studi sulla politica monetaria e fiscale suggeriscono che l'economia sommersa o informale è un potente cuscinetto in grado di assorbire i canali di trasmissione delle politiche macroeconomiche. In questo lavoro, sviluppiamo un modello DSGE con economia sommersa al fine di analizzarne l’impatto sui canali di trasmissione delle politiche monetarie e fiscali nei paesi emergenti e in via di sviluppo. La tesi è organizzata in tre capitoli. Il primo capitolo cerca di esaminare gli effetti di trasmissione e l'efficacia della politica monetaria e di altri shock strutturali attraverso l’interazione con l’economia sommersa. Il nostro modello determina se la presenza di un'economia sommersa influisce sulle risposte dell'economia ufficiale e chiarisce anche i cambiamenti nel meccanismo di trasmissione all'interno di entrambi i settori. Il secondo capitolo descrive un nuovo modello DSGE keynesiano con economia sommersa e analizza il ruolo delle politiche fiscali sul ciclo economico aggregato. In questo capitolo, abbiamo cercato di chiarire se la presenza di un'economia sommersa riduca o incrementi l'effetto delle trasmissioni di politica fiscale. Abbiamo anche cercato di capire se le politiche fiscali possono essere utilizzate per stabilizzare l'economia in risposta agli shock. Nel terzo capitolo, studiamo l'interazione tra i consumatori e la presenza di un'economia sommersa focalizzandoci sugli shock della politica fiscale. L‘obiettivo è sapere se l'introduzione di un'economia sommersa indebolisca l'effetto amplificativo dei consumatori sul moltiplicatore fiscale.
Theoretical literature on monetary and fiscal policy have suggested that shadow economy or the informal sector is a powerful buffer which absorbs large proportions of the transmission channels of macroeconomic policies. We develop a theoretical DSGE model with shadow economy and investigate their impact on the transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in developing and emerging countries. The thesis is organised in three chapters as follows. Chapter one seeks to examine the transmission effects and efficacy of monetary policy and other structural shocks with the interaction of shadow economy. Our model determines whether the presence of shadow economy affects the responses of the official economy and also clarifies the changes in the transmission mechanism within both sectors. The second chapter describes a new Keynesian DSGE model with shadow economy and investigate the role of fiscal policies over the aggregate business cycle. In this chapter, we sought to elucidate whether the presence of shadow economy dampens or amplifies the effect of fiscal policy transmissions. We further tried to understand whether fiscal policies can be used to stabilise the economy in response to shocks. In chapter three, we study the interplay of rule-of-thumb consumers and the presence of shadow economy focusing on fiscal policy disturbances. Our basic motivation is to know whether the incorporation of shadow economy weakens the amplifying effect of rule-of-thumb consumers on fiscal multipliers.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

31

Stroppiana, Luca <1968&gt. "Il finanziamento dei partiti politici e delle campagne elettorali: modelli a confronto." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2013. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/5767/.

Full text

Abstract:

La tesi si propone come obiettivo di dimostrare nel quadro di un’indagine comparatistica l’importanza della tematica del finanziamento della politica, del rapporto tra denaro e politica, nelle democrazie contemporanee. In questo senso ci si propone di sviluppare i nessi esistenti nell’ambito del tema del finanziamento fra disciplina dei partiti, disciplina delle campagne elettorali e, più in generale, disciplina del sistema elettorale in senso stretto e della forma di governo; di descrivere il complesso quadro giuridico in materia di diritto della finanza politica, oggetto di frequenti aggiornamenti e in continua evoluzione, in alcuni casi anche in via giurisprudenziale, quale risulta emergere dallo studio di ciascun ordinamento considerato; e di definire in conclusione i precisi contorni dei due distinti modelli di «finanziamento della politica» ricostruiti dalla ricerca politologica come modello statalista o pubblico, da una parte, e modello liberale o volontario, dall’altra, pur nelle specificità di ogni contesto istituzionale
The research discusses political financing in a comparative perspective and aims to show the importance of the relationship between money and politics in contemporary democracies. We discuss the connections between party funding and campaign finance on one hand, and party regulation and regulations governing electoral campaigns on the other hand; we describe the complexities of the legal framework of political finance laws and their always evolving and ever-changing rules; we finally evaluates two different models of political financing, as evidenced by the study of each country surveyed (Germany, France, Spain, United Kingdom, Italy, and the United States).

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

32

de, la Hoz del Hoyo Diego. "Different kettle of fish : turning around how computer modelling counts for (fisheries) policy-making." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/9924.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis examines how computer modelling matters for policy-making by looking at two case studies of European fisheries management. Based on documentary analysis and ethnographic interviews and observations, the main case is located within the European Union (EU) and centred around the flatfish fishery in the North Sea with a supplementary one from outside the EU and focused on the North East Arctic cod fishery in the Barents Sea. As in other much-contested areas of public policy, fisheries officials in the EU and neighbouring countries seek to develop a universalistic and objective ground by which to depoliticise management decisions. In this sense, modelling has long become their preferred approach to produce policy relevant representations of the otherwise hidden dynamics of a fishery. Social constructivists in the field of Science and Technology Studies (STS) studying the modelling used in areas of policy-making such as, for instance, climate change have questioned whether models are the right tools for this job given that the modelling may conceal large uncertainties about their accuracy and relevance to policy-making. Some of these scholars argue for producing ‘good’ models for policy-making, and thus more robust policies, by constructively engaging the non-modellers or non-specialists in the quality assurance of the modelling. ‘Fisheries Studies’ literature suggests, however, that modelling can contribute to policy resilience despite its well-known limitations to produce accurate fish counting. It follows that models are doing something else than providing policy-salient real-looking representations. How may modelling count differently for policy-making in fisheries and beyond? Drawing on the ‘co-production’ of science and social order framework from STS, the thesis puts forward three related arguments. First, that the technologies designed to depoliticise decision-making, including modelling, become spaces for political work by policy-makers, stakeholders and scientists. Second, that the role of computer modelling for policy stems from how representational validity and political usefulness are produced together. Third, that the role of modelling for policy is mediated by virtue of being assessed together with other technologies for depoliticising as part of a whole sociotechnical infrastructure to allow evidence-based decisions. As a distinctive contribution, this thesis thus questions the presumption in many social constructivist accounts that modelling alone becomes central to the policy process and its outcomes. The significance of modelling for policy-making should be understood in terms of its contribution to processes of sociotechnical framing. Narratives that foreground the former and background the latter show an analytical bias that needs turning around.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

33

Kharazmi, Omid Ali. "Modelling the role of university-industry collaboration in the Iranian National System of Innovation : generating transition policy scenarios." Thesis, University of Stirling, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/3060.

Full text

Abstract:

In a knowledge-based economy the collaboration between university, industry and government is vital for growth and innovation (Etzkowitz, 2008). A conceptual model of the relevant macro and micro environment was developed using the theoretical constructs from the literature on systems of innovation theories including, National Systems of Innovation, Porter’s ‘Cluster’ or ‘Diamond’ model, and the ‘Triple-Helix Model’ of university–industry-government interactions. The role of culture and trust in different systems of innovation theories was examined, and the role these elements play in UIC activities was found to be particularly important, though vague on the processes. A generic model of university-industry-government interrelations was developed to aid a systemic understanding of the mechanisms (primary barriers and drivers) for productive collaboration. This systems model was used in the formation of policy instruments designed to improve university-industry collaboration (UIC), and thereby the means of regional economic development. These policy experiments are applied to the case of Iran. However, since the future of Iran in this context is highly uncertain due to cultural, political and economic factors there are few assumptions which can be relied upon as a basis for traditional innovation management practice. Instead, it is intended to use the systems model in a series of scenario-based analyses of the effectiveness of policy instruments on the UIC associated with two Iranian cluster industries. A questionnaire survey and a series of semi-structured stakeholder interview methodology were used to build a basis for these scenario techniques. The method of systems modelling to generate policy change scenarios for UIC is a novel feature of this research. Analysis of the causal relationships of UIC activities in Iran found many were biased to create an established behaviour pattern (culture) which is overwhelmingly negative. This negative behaviour is manifest as a significant lack of trust at all interfaces between the primary actors in the system. According to the results of this research, trust is influenced by many factors including government activities, institutional structure, institutional culture, and also national culture of the country. The systems model is a complex interaction of reinforcing loops that emphasizes the scale of challenge policy-makers face in creating effective innovation systems, and may explain why few developing countries have been successful in achieving economic transition. This research shows how a policy development framework was formed using the UIC systems model to understand the structural problems facing Iran. A set of evolved states (exploratory and future-backward scenarios) served to illustrate the effect of these policy choices, and therefore to inform an improvement agenda for UIC activities in Iran.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

34

Gambino, Antonio <1981&gt. "Italia e Francia nell'Ungheria di Trianon (1919-1939): due modelli di penetrazione politico-culturale." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2011. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/3938/.

Full text

Abstract:

Italy and France in Trianon’s Hungary: two political and cultural penetration models During the first post-war, the Danubian Europe was the theatre of an Italian-French diplomatic challenge to gain hegemony in that part of the continent. Because of his geographical position, Hungary had a decisive strategic importance for the ambitions of French and Italian foreign politics. Since in the 1920s culture and propaganda became the fourth dimension of international relations, Rome and Paris developed their diplomatic action in Hungary to affirm not only political and economic influence, but also cultural supremacy. In the 1930, after Hitler’s rise to power, the unstoppable comeback of German political influence in central-eastern Europe determined the progressive decline of Italian and French political and economic positions in Hungary: only the cultural field allowed a survey of Italian-Hungarian and French-Hungarian relations in the contest of a Europe dominated by Nazi Germany during the Second World War. Nevertheless, the radical geopolitical changes in second post-war Europe did not compromise Italian and French cultural presence in the new communist Hungary. Although cultural diplomacy is originally motivated by contingent political targets, it doesn’t respect the short time of politics, but it’s the only foreign politics tool that guarantees preservations of bilateral relations in the long run.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

35

SPREAFICO, MARTA. "Institutions and Growth: The Experience of the Former Soviet Union Economies." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/1113.

Full text

Abstract:

Organizzata in tre saggi, questa tesi si pone l’obiettivo di consentire una migliore comprensione del legame tra crescita e istituzioni, e dei meccanismi attraverso cui gli assetti istituzionali possono condizionare i sentieri economici. Riconoscendo, sulla base di considerazioni storiche, il potere esemplificativo delle ex Repubbliche Socialiste Sovietiche e della loro comune esperienza passata, questo lavoro fornisce, da un lato, una struttura empirica di riferimento per esaminare l’impatto sulla performance economica di un insieme di istituzioni, concretamente legate al funzionamento dell’attività economica; dall’altro, approfondisce lo studio degli effetti e delle determinanti delle azioni di policy. Il primo saggio offre una disamina della letteratura riguardante il legame crescita e istituzioni, fornendo un quadro esaustivo degli sviluppi teorici ed empirici, e illustra diversi aspetti che possono essere concepiti come obiettivi per la ricerca futura; il secondo, attraverso la costruzione di un modello statico e di un modello dinamico, quantifica l’impatto delle istituzioni economiche sui sentieri di crescita di questi paesi, impiegando e analizzando numerose tecniche di stima; il terzo saggio formula diverse specificazioni e affronta il tema rilevante del ruolo degli interventi di policy sullo sviluppo economico e dell’effetto delle istituzioni politiche su comportamenti e decisioni del governo.
Organized in three essays, this thesis aims at achieving a better understanding of the link between growth and institutions, and of the mechanisms through which the institutional arrangements affect the economic paths. Exploiting the past common experience of the Former Soviet Union economies, this work provides an empirical framework to examine the impact on the economic performance of a set of institutions concretely related to the “functioning” of the economic activity and offers a first attempt to include in this research program the study of the consequences of the government actions. The first essay offers a thorough review of the literature researching on the link between economic growth and institutions, and elucidates several issues that deserve further attention; the second develops a static and a dynamic approach to assess, using multiple estimation techniques, the impact of a set of economic institutions on the growth paths of these countries; the third essay, through several formal specifications, deals with the relevant issue of the role of policy measures and of the effect of the political institutions on the governments behaviour.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

36

CORNARO, ALESSANDRA. "modelli neokeynesiani per l'analisi delle politiche monetarie ottimali con prezzi vischiosi: un approccio non lineare." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/634.

Full text

Abstract:

La tesi è organizzata come segue: nella prima parte viene presentato il background matematico necessario per studiare il modello, introducendo la nozione di sistema dinamico (capitolo 2). Succesivamente viene introdotto il background economico, con il concetto di determinatezza sia dal punto di vista tecnico, con esempio applicativo, che dal punto di vista dei modelli presenti in letteratura in cui viene impiegato. Nella seconda parte viene presentato il framework analitico, basato sul modello di Woodford. In seguito, si passa studiare il modello con lo strumento della loglinearizzazione, fornendo le relazioni di equilibrio attorno allo stato stazionario. Poi si specifica il modello in un caso particolare e si prosegue per ottenere la versione non lineare del modello, introducendo nuove ipotesi compatibili con il framework analitico, in modo da poter studiare la determinatezza dell'equilibrio.
The thesis is organized as follow: we start presenting, in the first part, the mathematical background we need to study our model, introducing at first the notion of dynamical system, more specifically in the discrete time, as our model required (Chapter 2). Afterwards, for the economical background (Chapter 3-4), the concept of determinacy of the equilibrium is analyzed from the technical point of view for linear models, providing the analytical conditions that let us obtain a unique and determinate equilibrium. Once explored the techniques, we give an exhaustive example that allows us to better understand from the mathematical point of view the concept of determinacy and how it is linked to the concept of stability. After that, a brief survey of the models that involved the study of determinacy is exposed, showing the several fields of application. Then, since in our model of monetary policy we imply different interest-rate policy rules in order to study the stability of the macroeconomic system, we provide a short preamble of the rules for the operating target interest rate set by Central Bank. In the second part the analytical framework is presented. The starting point is a model for price level determination in a cashless economy, where nominal rigidities are introduced, based on Woodford's work and we give the equilibrium relations of the model in the implicit form (Chapter 5). Afterwards, we build the model in a particular case (Chapter 6), by specifying the functions involved in the model by using utility function of C.R.R.A. type and linear production function, compatible with the analytical characterization. In this way we get the components of a general economic equilibrium model, consistent with the optimizing behavior of households and firms. The results obtained after the specification of the functions are the same we can find in the analysis proposed by Walsh. At this point, we obtain the log-linearized version of the model that is the starting point for the study of the stability of the system in the linear case. This procedure let us find a two equations forward-looking and rational-expectations model for inflation and the output gap. Then we briefly present the different policy regimes used in the analysis according to our framework, providing the interest-rate relations that close the model Since our intention is to find a nonlinear version of the model, the step of using the log-linearization is essential in order to understand and to underline how this tool is useful not only for studying the equations around the steady-state but also to make these relations more treatable from a mathematical point of view: in fact it is important in order to figure out the obstacles we faced to build the nonlinear model and to find the solutions proposed in this work. In the third part (Chapter 7), to reach our purpose to go beyond the log-linearized and simplified version of the model, we try, under some assumption compatible with the behavior of the agents, to provide nonlinear conditions for this model. This is meaningful in order to avoid loss of informations due to the limited analysis around a neighborhood of the steady-state. Once illustrated the nonlinear model and the equilibrium relation, we study the determinacy of the equilibrium, using the techniques shown in the first part, under two different interest rate specifications that close the model. Chapter 8 concludes.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

37

GARCIA, BARRAGAN FERNANDO. "ESSAYS ON FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION AND POLICIES." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/4374.

Full text

Abstract:

Negli ultimi dieci anni siamo stati testimoni di una delle più grandi crisi che il mondo ha visto. Il lavoro dei macroeconomisti è diventato più attivo, nell'urgenza di trovare la via d'uscita, molti degli strumenti applicati per la professione di economista sono stati rispolverati ed aggiornati per le nuove esigenze della crisi economica. Tra gli strumenti per la ricerca economica c'è lo modello dinamico stocastico di equilibrio generale (DSGE). Questa tesi è composta da quattro capitoli che coinvolgono l'intermediazione e/o politiche condotte dai governi o banche centrali finanziarie. I primi tre capitoli partono sul modello DSGE mentre l' ultimo su un modello macroeconomico principale-agente. Il primo (scritto come una rassegna delle principali indagini in DSGE) trata dei cicli di credito, di acceleratori finanziari, del mercato immobiliare, del settore bancario, dell'assunzione dei rischi e delle politiche monetarie. Il secondo analizza l'impatto delle variazioni tra il rapporto di leva e le riserve necessarie all'interno, che al giorno d'oggi regolano alcune delle politiche popolari. Il terzo capitolo incorpora un mercato dei prestiti interbancari per l'analisi degli shock di rischio generato nel settore bancario e come si sviluppa l'economia. Il quarto invece è un'indagine che si scosta dal modello macroeconomico principale-agente; comprende un governo attivo con le tasse e sussidi di disoccupazione.
During the last decade we were witness of one of the biggest crises that the world has seen. The job of the macroeconomists became more active, in the urgency for finding the way out; many of the tools applied for the economist profession were dusted off and updated for the new needs of the economic crisis. Among the tools for economic research there is the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE). This dissertation consists of four chapters involved in financial intermediation and/or policies conducted by the governments or central banks. The first three chapters depart from the DSGE model while the last is a macroeconomic agent based model. The first, written as a review of the main investigations in the DSGE, covers several fields as credit cycles, financial accelerator, housing market, banking sector, risk taking and monetary policies. The second chapter analyses the impacts of changes in the leverage ratio and the required reserves within, some of the popular regulation policies nowadays. The third chapter incorporates an interbank lending market for the analysis of risk shocks generated in the banking sector and how it is spread to the economy. The fourth chapter is an investigation that departs from the macroeconomic agent based model; it incorporates an active government with taxes and unemployment subsidies.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

38

REISSL, SEVERIN DAVID. "La formazione delle aspettative modelli macroeconomici basati su agenti." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/87444.

Full text

Abstract:

L'obbiettivo di questa tesi è di investigare il ruolo della formazione delle aspettative nei modelli macroeconomici basati su agenti e stock-flussi coerenti. Mentre ci sono stati notevoli passi avanti nello sviluppo di tali modelli, la ricerca sulla formazione e sul ruolo delle aspettative in essi rimane ancora poco sviluppato. La tesi è composta da tre articoli, ognuno dei quali si focalizza sulla formazione delle aspettative in un settore economico speci co e presenta una serie di esperimenti riguardanti la variazione dei meccanismi di formazione delle aspetta- tive, dinamiche di opinioni e sentimenti, così come le applicazioni delle politiche economiche. La tesi dimostra l'influenza potenzialmente forte delle aspettative dei agenti sulla volatilità macroeconomica e mostra che, dipendendo dalla loro speci cazione e l'ambiente economico, le aspettative possono essere sia un elemento stabilizzante che un elemento destabilizzante. Inoltre, attraverso l'ampia gamma di esperimenti politici condotti, serve a sottolineare il ruolo importante delle politiche stabilizzanti nei sistemi che esibiscono fluttuazioni endogene, e il capitolo 4 in particolare mette in evidenza la potenziale dipendenza dell'efficacia delle politiche economiche dalle aspettative. Allo stesso tempo, alcuni dei risultati ottenuti avvertono che nei sistemi complessi, gli interventi politici devono essere calibrati attentamente affinché non diventino essi stessi fonte di instabilità.
The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the role of expectations formation in agent-based and stock-flow consistent macroeconomic models. While there have been considerable advances in the development of such models, research on the formation and role of beliefs and expectations within them remains underdeveloped. The thesis consists of three papers, each of which focuses on expectations formation in one particular economic sector and presents a range of experiments concerning the variation of expectations formation mechanisms, belief and sentiment dynamics, as well as policy applications. The thesis demonstrates the potentially strong influence of agents' expectations on macroeconomic volatility and shows that depending on their specification as well as the economic environment, expectations can be both a stabilising and destabilising factor. Moreover, through the wide range of policy experiments conducted, it serves to emphasise the important role of stabilisation policies in systems exhibiting endogenous fluctuations and chapter 4 in particular highlights the potential dependence of policy effectiveness on expectations. At the same time, some of the obtained results caution that in complex systems, policy interventions must be carefully calibrated lest they themselves become a source of instability.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

39

DONEGANI, CHIARA PAOLA. "Saggi sul benessere soggetivo sul posto di lavoro. Evidenza empirica per gli Stati Europei." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/1955.

Full text

Abstract:

La tesi è una raccolta di tre saggi sulla soddisfazione sul posto di lavoro. Il primo capitolo utilizza il dataset panel BHPS per analizzare le differenze di soddisfazione lavorativa dei lavoratori impiegati nel settore nonprofit rispetto agli altri settori. Il secondo considera l'effetto del salario -sia quello del lavoratore che di un gruppo rilevante di riferimento- e degli schemi incentivanti di retribuzione sulla soddisfazione lavorativa. L'analisi si basa sul round 5 dello European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS). Il terzo capitolo analizza e critica la relazione da tempo condivisa in letteratura che i membri di organizzazioni sindacali riportano minore soddisfazione lavorativa rispetto ai non iscritti, mediante l'analisi dei dati dello European Social Survey (ESS),round 3 e 5.
The thesis provides a detailed examination of job satisfaction through three distinct essays. The first chapter uses UK household panel data (the BHPS) to consider differences in job satisfaction in the non-profit sector, compared with other sectors. The second looks at the effect of earnings – that of the respondent and of relevant other people – and of payment systems on job satisfaction. This is based on data from round 5 of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS). The third essay seeks to examine and to challenge the long-established finding that union members tend to have lower job satisfaction than non-members, and this is addressed with two rounds of data from the European Social Survey (ESS).

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

40

QUATTRONE, GIUSEPPE. "MODELLI DI DIMENSIONAMENTO, QUALIFICAZIONE E LOCALIZZAZIONE DI STRUTTURE OSPEDALIERE NELLA REGIONE CALABRIA." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/1956.

Full text

Abstract:

Il sistema sanitario ha un ruolo fondamentale nella crescita economica di un paese e per tale motivo è oggetto di continue revisioni, nel tentativo di trovare il giusto equilibrio tra risorse necessarie e risorse disponibili. L’elevata complessità del settore spinge la ricerca scientifica a sviluppare modelli che spieghino al meno in parte l’insieme di attività che costituiscono il processo produttivo al fine di ottenere un miglioramento complessivo nella qualità del servizio offerto. Con questo lavoro viene proposto l’utilizzo congiunto di due strumenti quantitativi, utilizzati in geo-grafia spaziale e in ricerca operativa, che rappresentano in modo dinamico il flusso di pazienti all’interno di una specifica area geografica.
The health system has a fundamental role in the economic growth of a country and for this reason it is subject to constant revisions, in an attempt to find the right balance between resources. The high complexity of the sector pushes scientific research to develop models that explain at least part of the set of activities that constitute the manufacturing process in order to obtain an improvement in the overall quality of the service offered. In this paper we proposed the joint use of two quantitative tools used in geography and space operations research, which dynamically represent the flow of patients within a geographical area.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

41

Barani, Hassanlangi Tara. "Förhindrad utveckling av diplomatiska relationer : Effekten av konsensus och fruktan på USA:s och Irans relation." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för statsvetenskap (ST), 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-64873.

Full text

Abstract:

Diplomatic relations between states do sometimes go backwards in their process and development. One of these cases is the United States-Iranian diplomatic relation which has gone backwards in its development. This study is based on two main different theories, the Habermasian model and the Hobbesian trap. This, with the purpose to understand how lack of consensus and presence of fear are the reasons for the disruption of the United States-Iranian relations' development. The results have shown different directions, concerning the theories, in which they can affect the countries bilateral relations. The main reasons for the disruption of the relations, from the Iranians' perspective, are due to their interpretive concerning United States willingness to be the leader of the international community. From the Americans' perspective, the disruptions are due to their interpretive concerning Iranians' attachment to their own nuclear programme. The conclusion of this study shows how lack of consensus and presence of fear has prevented the United States-Iranian diplomatic relation to develop, and that the theories potency of strength, therefore, is high.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

42

DELPIAZZO, ELISA. "La partecipazione del Mozambico al SADC. Un processo di liberalizzazione attraverso diversi modelli e diverse chiusure." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/1109.

Full text

Abstract:

La scelta del modeller riguardo alla chiusura del modello CGE influenza i suoi risultati finali e le sue prescrizioni di policy. In questa tesi, lo scopo è l’analisi e l’identificazione del problema, sia attraverso una discussione teorica che un’ applicazione pratica. Dall’articolo del 1963 di Amartya Sen in poi, la letteratura ha presentato vari articoli sull’argomento. Attualmente, il problema delle chiusure del modello non appare più centrale nel dibattito. Dopo una breve introduzione su cosa siano i CGE, il loro sviluppo e la loro struttura, è presentata una serie di esemplificative maquette con lo scopo di introdurre al concetto di chiusura, come essa influenzi i risultati e come questa scelta del modeller sia intimamente connessa ai fondamenti macroeconomici del sistema. Dopo la teoria, ci si sposta nel mondo reale analizzando con differenti modelli (Neoclassico, “Bastardo Keynesiano”, Strutturalista/Post- Keynesiano) e diverse chiusure per gli aggregati macroeconomici (risparmi privati, pubblici, e stranieri) l’impatto dell’accordo regionale SADC sull’economia mozambicana. I modelli CGE per il Mozambico sono calibrati su una SAM del 2003 e sono svolti con l’ausilio di GAMS/MPSGE. I risultati dimostrano che la chiusura influenza i risultati stessi del modello per cui ognuno presenta una serie di raccomandazioni politiche per l’applicazione dell’accordo SADC.
Modellers’ choice on closure rules affects a CGE model results and consequently its policy prescriptions. In this thesis, the aim is to detect and assess this issue, both through a theoretical discussion and an empirical application. Starting from Amartya Sen’s 1963 paper, literature presents many contributions on this topic. Currently, the closure rule problem is not central in the CGE debate. After a brief introduction on CGEs, their development and their structure, a series of simple maquette is presented. They have the exemplary role of introducing the concept of closures, explain how they affect final outcomes and how this modeller’s choice is strictly connected to the macroeconomic foundation of the economic system. After theory, we move into the real World analyzing through different models (Neoclassical, “Bastard Keynesian”, and Structuralist/ Post- Keynesian), and through different closure rules for macro- aggregates (private, public and foreign savings) the impact of the Regional Trade Agreement of SADC with respect to the Mozambican economy. The Mozambican CGE models are calibrated on a 2003 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and they are performed using GAMS/ MPSGE. Outcomes show that closure rules affect them and each model presents a set of policy prescription to implement the SADC agreement.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

43

ANTONELLI, SERGIO. "OBBLIGO DI FEDELTA’ DEL PRESTATORE DI LAVORO. IL PATTO DI NON CONCORRENZA. MODELLI ORGANIZZATIVI, SVILUPPO DEL CAPITALE UMANO E POLITICHE DI FIDELIZZAZIONE DEL PERSONALE." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/795.

Full text

Abstract:

Obbligo di fedeltà del prestatore di lavoro - Il patto di non concorrenza - Modelli organizzativi - Sviluppo del capitale umano e politiche di fidelizzazione del personale
Duty of loyalty - Covenant not to compete - Post termination of employment - Employment retention schemes

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

44

RILLOSI, FRANCESCO. "Modelli a generazioni sovrapposte per due paesi con un mercato finanziario integrato." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/1954.

Full text

Abstract:

La tesi, costituita da due parti e tre capitoli, si concentra sulle conseguenze macroeconomiche della globalizzazione, prendendo in considerazione vari schemi di un modello a generazioni sovrapposte, in un mercato finanziario integrato. Per ipotesi, gli agenti vivono per due periodi e sono divisi in due gruppi: i "vecchi" che posseggono il fattore capitale e i "giovani" che offrono lavoro e risparmio. Nella prima parte si suppone che i mercati siano perfetti. Dopo aver ricevuto il loro reddito, i giovani ottimizzano consumo e risparmio. Diverse ipotesi vengono avanzate sull'apertura dei mercati, ma le economie convergono sempre verso uno stato stazionario asintoticamente stabile. Nella seconda parte i mercati finanziari sono imperfetti e i prestiti sono razionati. I giovani agenti risparmiano tutto il loro reddito e consumano solo nel secondo periodo della loro vita. In queste nuove ipotesi si possono riscontrare dinamiche endogene di tipo periodico.
The essay, made by two parts and three chapters, focuses on macroeconomic effects of globalization, considering various schemes of a two-country OLG model with integrated financial market. For hypothesis, agents live for two periods and are divided in two groups: the "old" that own the capital factor and the "young" that supply labor and savings. In the first part markets are supposed to be perfect. After received their income, the young optimize their consumption and savings. Different hypotheses about the opening markets are considered, but the economies ever converge to an asymptotically stable steady state. In the second part the financial markets are imperfect and borrowing is constrained. The young agents save all their income and consume only in the second period of their life. In these new hypotheses endogenous, periodic dynamics may occur.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

45

Placanica, Fabio. "L'implementazione delle politiche preventive per la manutenzione di sistemi di parcheggio automatici: il caso Hub Parking Technology." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2020.

Find full text

Abstract:

Per milioni di automobilisti, il problema del parcheggio è, quotidianamente, motivo di stress, perdite di tempo e denaro. Una delle principali soluzioni adottate è costituita dai sistemi di parcheggio automatico, in grado di gestire in autonomia la corretta erogazione del servizio di sosta. Per le aziende del settore, uno dei drivers fondamentali all’acquisizione di vantaggio competitivo, riguarda sempre più il livello di personalizzazione dell’offerta dei servizi post-vendita. Lo studio propone alcuni modelli ottimizzanti per l’implementazione di politiche manutentive preventive, col fine di minimizzare la frequenza dello stato di fermo dell’impianto, che costituisce il principale problema dei suddetti sistemi. Per stimare i costi necessari all’applicazione di tale approccio, è stato proposto un modello di calcolo, personalizzabile a seconda del segmento di business del cliente, atto a quantificare i danni causati dal fermo impianto. Al giorno d’oggi, nessuna politica manutentiva ben strutturata prescinde dalla creazione di un sistema informativo di manutenzione globale, integrato ed informatizzato, che permetta di ottenere feedback di ritorno dal mercato, grazie al quale sia possibile migliorare la conoscenza del prodotto e monitorare le esigenze dei clienti. Per questo verranno proposte soluzioni per la costituzione dello schema concettuale del SIM, adeguate al contesto. L’elaborato non ambisce ad individuare soluzioni ottimali, in quanto l’opportunità di applicazione dei modelli considerati necessita di una valutazione specifica, che tenga conto delle caratteristiche del singolo parcheggio. La tesi presenta, invece, i diversi approcci di prevenzione applicabili ed alcuni spunti di riflessione che tendono al miglioramento continuo. Per sostenere la validità delle soluzioni considerate, lo studio propone l’analisi del caso Hub Parking Technology, unità di business del gruppo FAAC, eccellenza bolognese dell’automazione e del controllo accessi.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

46

Ekholm, Edvin. "The Swedish model and the Rehn-Meidner model : A definition of the Swedish model and comparison to the Rehn-Meidner model." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Political Science, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-12673.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis studies two different models; the Swedish model and the Rehn-Meidner model. It shows their similarities and differences, and explains why it is inaccurate to put an equal mark between the two of them. An extensive discussion on the models is presented in order to give them each a fair assessment. It is shown how and why the Swedish model has failed, as well as how Sweden has failed to apply the Rehn-Meidner model in a consistent manner.

The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the models’ possible application today and in the future. Also, some requirements for the models’ validity will be recognized. Some important questions concerning the models’ relevance, the influence of multitude on the models, and the issue of globalization and the EU are in this concluding chapter briefly discussed. It is argued that multitude has decreased the relevance of the models significantly, and that the Swedish welfare state which was created based on the ideas of the Swedish model, needs to be reassessed. Welfare municipalities are suggested rather than a welfare state.

Den här studien behandlar de två olika modellerna, den svenska modellen och Rehn-Meidner-modellen. Deras likheter och skillnader visas, och det förklaras varför det är inkorrekt att sätta ett likhetstecken mellan dem. En noggrann diskussion om modellerna genomförs för att kunna ge dem båda en rättvis bedömning. Det visas även hur och varför den svenska modellen misslyckats, samt hur Sverige har misslyckats att tillämpa Rehn-Meidner-modellen.

Uppsatsen avslutas med en kort diskussion om modellernas eventuella tillämpning idag och i framtiden. Några krav för modellernas giltighet är också uppmärksammade. Ett antal viktiga frågor rörande modellernas relevans, mångfaldens inflytande på modellerna, samt globaliseringen och EU:s inverkan är i detta kapitel diskuterat. Det påstås att mångfalden har minskat modellernas relevans, och att den svenska välfärdsstaten, vilken är baserad på den svenska modellen, måste omvärderas. Välfärdskommuner föreslås snarare än en välfärdsstat.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

47

PANSINI, ROSARIA VEGA. "Lo studio dell'impatto delle politiche sulla distribuzione del reddito in una prospettiva micro-macro. Il caso del Vietnam." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/228.

Full text

Abstract:

Obiettivo di questo lavoro è studiare i fattori socio-economici responsabili del cambiamento nella distribuzione del reddito dovuto a un cambiamento nel contesto politico di riferimento, in Vietnam durante il periodo delle riforme. La metodologia adottata analizza i cambiamenti nella distribuzione del reddito sia a livello micro che a livello macro. A livello micro, l'analisi indaga sulle caratteristiche individuali e familiari da cui dipende il livello e la distribuzione della spesa. E' possibile inoltre valutare gli effetti diretti di cambiamenti nel quadro politico di riferimento. Il livello macro di analisi consente di individuare le caratteristiche strutturali della disuguaglianza nella distribuzione del reddito personale e di isolare anche gli effetti indiretti delle politiche. Gli strumenti analitici selezionati in questo studio sono un modello supply-driven, rappresentato da un modello di microsimulazione e un modello demand-driven, costituito dalla Matrice di Contabilità Sociale. In particolare, il modello di microsimulazione ha consentito la derivazione di una distribuzione controfattuale e la disaggregazione della variazione della disuguaglianza in Vietnam in: effetto di prezzo, effetto di una variazione della componente non osservata dei salari, effetto dovuto a cambiamenti nelle scelte occupazioni e effetti dovuti a cambiamenti nella popolazione. Utilizzando una nuova metodologia di scomposizione ad un livello microscopico dei moltiplicatori derivati dalla SAM, è stato possibile derivare e isolare tutti gli effetti diretti e indiretti di uno shock esogeno sulla distribuzione personale del reddito.
The aim of this work is to investigate the socio-economic factors that affect in income distribution changes caused by changes in the policy framework in Vietnam during the period of reforms. The adopted methodology analyzes policy induced changes in income distribution both at the micro and the macro level. At the micro level, the analysis of inequality can help identifying the socio-economic factors affecting the level of household expenditure and its distribution and evaluating direct effects of policies. The macro level identifies the structural characteristics of inequality and evaluates also the indirect effects of policies on the personal income distribution. The two analytical tools have been selected have been a supply driven model represented by the microsimulation model and a demand driven model, constituted by the Social Accounting Matrix. The microsimulation model allowed deriving a counterfactual distribution of income and disaggregating change in the Vietnamese income inequality into four effects: price effect, effect of a change in the unobservable component of wages, occupational choice effect and population effect. Using a new technique of decomposition of SAM-based multipliers in 'microscopic' detail, the macro model allowed deriving all the direct and indirect effects of an exogenous shock to personal income distribution.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

48

De, falco Fabrizio. "Opere cortesi, modelli letterari e fazioni politiche nello spazio Plantageneto (XII-XIII sec.) : Il De Nugis Curialium e la Topographia Hibernica alla luce degli obiettivi dei loro autori." Thesis, Avignon, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020AVIG1206.

Full text

Abstract:

Les deux ouvrages examinés dans cette thèse, le De Nugis Curialium de Gautier Map et la Topographia Hibernica de Giraud de Barri, sont souvent pris comme exemples pour décrire le style qui caractérisa la production culturelle de la cour Plantagenet. L’œuvre de Gautier Map est généralement considérée comme un exemple du sarcasme des courtisans et comme l’expression de l’intérêt développé en Angleterre pour les contes folkloriques. L’œuvre de Giraud de Barri est surtout étudiée comme témoin de la rencontre entre la civilisation développée au sein des universités européennes au cours du XIIe siècle et celle typique de l’ile irlandaise au milieu du Moyen Âge. Cette thèse relit les deux textes à la lumière des intérêts particuliers de leurs auteurs et de leurs tentatives de carrière. Plutôt que d’évaluer ces œuvres pour leur valeur littéraire, la thèse montre qu’elles sont à contextualiser dans la cadre de la lutte entre factions qui agitait le royaume anglo-normand
Gerald of Wales was a Cambro-Norman courtier and author. His books on Ireland and Wales are unique examples of literacy talent and first-hand witness from the XIIth century Marches of Britain and Ireland. Similarly, Walter Map served at the court of Henry II and wrote the De Nugis Curialium at the end of the XIIth century. The De Nugis is a puzzling work in which one can find history, satire, and folktales. The thesis shows how under the courtly language of the works the authors tried to build and enforce their personal network in order to pursue their careers
La corte di Enrico II Plantageneto (re d’Inghilterra dal 1154 al 1189) è riconosciuta come un centro di innovazioni letterarie, fulcro dei cambiamenti in atto nel XII secolo: la nascita del romance, la cortesia, la raccolta di racconti del folklore celtico.Le due opere esaminate in questa tesi, il De Nugis Curialium di Walter Map e la Topographia Hibernica di Giraldo Cambrense, sono spesso prese a esempio per descrivere la particolare commistione di stili che caratterizzò la produzione culturale della corte plantageneta. L’opera di Walter Map è generalmente indicata come esemplare del sarcasmo dei cortigiani e come espressione dell’interesse sviluppatosi in Inghilterra per i racconti di matrice folklorica. L’opera di Giraldo Cambrense è studiata soprattutto perché testimone dell’incontro tra la civiltà sviluppatasi in seno alle università europee nel corso del XII secolo e quella tipica dell’Irlanda nel pieno del medioevo.Questa tesi rilegge entrambi i testi alla luce degli interessi particolari dei loro autori e ai loro tentativi di carriera. Si sostiene che questi testi furono usati dai loro autori nel tentativo di fare carriera all’interno della gerarchia ecclesiastica del regno anglonormanno. Piuttosto che valutare tali opere per il loro valore letterario, si mostra come siano, da contestualizzare all’interno della complicata e mutevole lotta tra fazioni interna al regno anglo-normanno.Per tale contestualizzazione, si è contato, dopo aver analizzato le tematiche della frontiera, della regalità e del mondo religioso così come sono presentate dagli autori, sulla presenza nei testi di riferimenti precisi a uomini di cui è stato possibile ricostruire interessi e partigianerie. La relazione tra il modo in cui i temi erano presentati, i personaggi contemporanei citati e le esperienze degli autori ha permesso di ricostruire quale fosse l’uso pratico delle opere di Walter Map e Giraldo Cambrense – garantirsi un seggio episcopale – e come i due cercarono di raggiungerlo. La scrittura cortese praticata nel XII secolo inglese adattava le tematiche in voga e i riferimenti condivisi dai suoi lettori a seconda degli obiettivi degli autori e dei destinatari. I destinatari, piuttosto che il re, sono stati identificati in quanti avevano la possibilità, il potere, di incidere nelle carriere degli autori. Il De Nugis Curialium e la Topographia Hibernica risultano essere stati un mezzo per gli autori, opere usate per presentarsi e identificarsi con specifiche fazioni politiche, più simili a dei curriculum vitae che a dei romanzi o enciclopedie

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

49

Dezécache, Camille. "Les fondements de REDD+ à l’épreuve des modèles de déforestation : cas d’étude sur le Plateau des Guyanes." Thesis, Guyane, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017YANE0005/document.

Full text

Abstract:

Depuis ses balbutiements au début des années 2000, la Réduction des Emissions liées à la Déforestation et la Dégradation forestière, plus connue sous le sigle REDD+, a peu à peu été admise comme un moyen indispensable des politiques globales de lutte contre le changement climatique. Reposant sur le concept de « déforestation évitée », elle nécessite la formulation d’un scénario de référence servant à évaluer les efforts des pays dans la maîtrise de leur niveau de déforestation. Ces scénarios sont au cœur de nombreux débats politiques et scientifiques. Cette thèse constitue une mise en perspective des principes de REDD+ avec, comme cas d’étude, le Plateau des Guyanes. Dans un premier temps, on présentera l’établissement d’un modèle spatialisé de déforestation pour la Guyane française, insistant sur la nécessité de se focaliser sur les moteurs socio-économiques de la déforestation. Ce constat sera renforcé, dans un second temps, par l’étude de la déforestation liée à l’orpaillage à l’échelle de l’ensemble du Plateau des Guyanes, montrant un impact très fort du cours de l’or et des contextes politiques sur le niveau déforestation. Ces résultats alimenteront une discussion critique du mécanisme REDD+, basé sur la formulation de scénarios de référence potentiellement très variables et fondés sur des déterminants davantage politiques que scientifiques, ouvrant ainsi la porte à un potentiel chantage environnemental
Since its appearance at the beginning of the 2000’s, the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, known as REDD+, has gradually been admitted as an indispensable option for global policies aiming at tackling climate change. Relying on the concept of « avoided deforestation », it requires the formulation of a reference scenario aiming at evaluating efforts made by the countries involved in controlling their level of deforestation. Those scenarios are facing numerous political and scientific debates. This thesis aims at putting into perspective the principles of REDD+, based on a study site covering the Guiana Shield. In a first step, the formulation of a spatialiazed deforestation model over French Guiana will be presented, insisting on the necessity to focus on socio-economic drivers of deforestation. This statement will be reinforced, in a second step, by the the study of deforestation due to gold mining in the Guiana Shield, showing a very strong effect of gold prices and national political contexts on deforestation. These results finally contribute to a critical discussion on REDD+ mechanism, based on the formulation of very variable reference scenarios, relying more on political than on scientific determinants, and potentially enabling the emergence of environmental blackmailing

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

50

ASSENZA, TIZIANA. "Saggi su fattori monetari e finanziari in economie creditizie." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/114.

Full text

Abstract:

La tesi si colloca nel filone di letteratura dell' Acceleratore Finanziario, che si è sviluppato a partire dagli anni 90. Il lavoro prende le mosse dai modelli di Kiyotaki e Moore (KM,1997, 2002) e di Greenwald e Stiglitz (GS 1993, 2003). L'obiettivo è quello di tentare di rispondere ad alcuni quesiti che sorgono spontaneamente dallo studio di questa tipologia di modelli, inquadrando le idee proposte in una modellistica teorica adeguata. La tesi si compone di 7 capitoli. Nei primi due capitoli viene presentato e discusso, sia in chiave microeconomica che in chiave macroeconomica, il framework proposto da KM. Nel capitolo 3 si introduce il problema della bancarotta e si esplorano gli effetti di eventuali bancarotte sui mercati dei beni e sui mercati finanziari. Nel capitolo 4 viene presentato e discusso un articolo di Cordoba e Ripoll (2004a) nel quale gli autori sviluppano un modello à la KM introducendo il ruolo della moneta tramite l'approccio del Cash In Advance (CIA) constraint . Nel quinto capitolo viene presentato e discusso un contributo originale che introduce il ruolo della moneta nel modello di KM tramite l'approccio della Moneta nella Funzione di Utilità. Il modello è relativamente semplice possono emergere equilibri multipli e permette di esplorare gli effetti della politica monetaria sulle variabili macroeconomiche. Nel capitolo 6 si presenta un modello a generazioni sovrapposte à la Diamond-Samuelson utilizzando il framework di KM. In tale contesto la moneta ha essenzialmente il ruolo di riserva di valore (permette di incrementare il consumo e il bequest da vecchi), mentre il bequest rappresenta una risorsa a disposizione del giovane. In fine il modello presentato nel capitolo 7 è un esempio di un modello macroeconomico microfondato con vincoli finanziari e agenti eterogenei à la Greenwald-Stiglitz. Viene presentata una procedura di aggregazione che permette di ottenere le variabili macroeconomiche tenendo in considerazione il comportamento individuale degli agenti. Il modello può essere studiato tramite delle simulazioni in una struttura Agent-Based.
The dissertation could be traced back to the so called Financial Accelerator literature, that has been developed during the 90's. In particular it is essentially an attempt to adapt, modify or even subvert the basic framework proposed by Kiyotaki and Moore (KM,1997, 2002) and by Greenwald and Stiglitz (GS 1993, 2003) in order to provide answers to some questions that naturally arise from the study of these types of models. The thesis is divided into 7 chapters. Chapters 1 and 2 present and discuss the benchmark model, i.e. the framework put forward by KM, at the micro level (optimization problems of the different types of agents, market equilibrium) and at the macro level (laws of motion of macro state variables) respectively. In chapter 3 we study the conditions under which bankruptcy can occur and we explore the consequences of actual bankruptcies in terms of disruption of financial and goods markets. In chapter 4 we present and discuss a paper by Cordoba and Ripoll in which the role of money in a framework à la KM is introduced by means of the Cash In Advance (CIA) constraint approach. In chapter 5 we follow the Money In the Utility function (MIU) approach to introduce money in the original KM framework. The model seems very promising because is relatively simple, there can be multiple equilibria and the effect of a monetary injection can be explored in a straightforward way. In chapter 6 we model a KM economy in an OLG setting à la Diamond-Samuelson in which money plays basically the role of a store of value, which allows to increase consumption and bequest when old and bequest plays the role of internal resources for the young. The model presented in chapter 7 is an example of a microfounded macroeconomic model with financing constraints and heterogeneous agents of the Greenwald-Stiglitz type. An aggregation procedure is proposed in order to go from the individual to the aggregate variable. The model can be explored by means of simulations in an Agent-Based setting.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Political modelling'

Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles