Academic literature on the topic 'Political modelling'
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Journal articles on the topic "Political modelling"
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Sørensen, Jan Rose. "Applied political economic modelling." European Journal of Political Economy 6, no. 3 (December 1990): 442–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0176-2680(90)90073-r.
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Byers, David, James Davidson, and David Peel. "Modelling political popularity: a correction." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 165, no. 1 (February 2002): 187–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-985x.00677.
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Armborst, Andreas. "Modelling Terrorism and Political Violence." International Relations 24, no. 4 (December 2010): 414–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0047117810385779.
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Goel, Pankaj, and Amanpreet Singh Brar. "Structural equation modelling of political marketing strategies adopted by political parties." Journal of Management Research and Analysis 5, no. 3 (September 15, 2018): 319–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.18231/2394-2770.2018.0050.
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Zakaria. "Modelling Political Support among Women with Political Actors in Northern States." Journal of Social Sciences 8, no. 1 (January 1, 2012): 104–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.3844/jssp.2012.104.108.
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Potters, Jan, and Frans Van Winden. "Modelling political pressure as transmission of information." European Journal of Political Economy 6, no. 1 (August 1990): 61–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0176-2680(90)90036-i.
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León-Castro, Ernesto, Luis A. Perez-Arellano, Maricruz Olazabal-Lugo, and Jose M. Merigó. "Prioritized Induced Heavy Operators Applied to Political Modelling." International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 29, no. 04 (August 2021): 603–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218488521500264.
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This paper presents the prioritized induced heavy ordered weighted average (PIHOWA) operator. This operator combines an unbounded weighting vector, an induced vector and a prioritized vector and can be applied to the group decision-making process where the information provided by each decision maker does not have the same importance. An application of this operator is done in governmental transparency in Mexico based on the Open Government Metric (OGM). Among the main results it is possible to visualize how the relative importance of each component can generate important change in the top 10 ranking.
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Mostafa, Mohamed M. "Modelling nations' political risk via computational intelligence techniques." International Journal of Computational Intelligence Studies 4, no. 3/4 (2015): 243. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijcistudies.2015.072872.
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Milosch, Tim. "Morocco: Modelling Stability in Turbulent Waters." Journal of Arts and Humanities 5, no. 12 (December 13, 2016): 66. http://dx.doi.org/10.18533/journal.v5i12.1049.
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<p>Morocco and Egypt both experienced similar socioeconomic challenges in the last decade, but the Moroccan monarchy has been able to address those challenges without prompting civil conflict or anti-government rebellions. This presents an interpretive problem for the political science literature that views socioeconomic trends as being primary indicators of political instability. This case study proposes a more nuanced, multidisciplinary approach to the analysis of Morocco’s political culture by mapping findings in historical and anthropological research on to a political process framework in order to explain the Moroccan regime’s stability in terms of its religious legitimacy. It concludes with an assessment of how this knowledge can be used by countries outside the Middle East North Africa region (MENA) to better partner with MENA countries in developing stable political cultures.</p>
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Mitra, Sovan. "Political risk modelling and measurement from stochastic volatility models." International Journal of Sustainable Economy 11, no. 2 (2019): 184. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijse.2019.099064.
Full textDissertations / Theses on the topic "Political modelling"
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Fang, Anjie. "Analysing political events on Twitter : topic modelling and user community classification." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2019. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/41135/.
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Recently, political events, such as elections or referenda, have raised a lot of discussions on social media networks, in particular, Twitter. This brings new opportunities for social scientists to address social science tasks, such as understanding what communities said, identify- ing whether a community has an influence on another or analysing how these communities respond to political events online. However, identifying these communities and extracting what they said from social media data are challenging and non-trivial tasks. In this thesis, we aim to make progress towards understanding 'who' (i.e. communities) said 'what' (i.e. discussed topics) and 'when' (i.e. time) during political events on Twitter. While identifying the 'who' can benefit from Twitter user community classification approaches, 'what' they said and 'when' can be effectively addressed on Twitter by extracting their discussed topics using topic modelling approaches that also account for the importance of time on Twitter. To evaluate the quality of these topics, it is necessary to investigate how coherent these topics are to humans. Accordingly, we propose a series of approaches in this thesis. First, we investigate how to effectively evaluate the coherence of the topics generated using a topic modelling approach. The topic coherence metric evaluates the topical coherence by examining the semantic similarity among words in a topic. We argue that the semantic similarity of words in tweets can be effectively captured by using word embeddings trained using a Twitter background dataset. Through a user study, we demonstrate that our proposed word embedding-based topic coherence metric can assess the coherence of topics like humans. In addition, inspired by the precision at k information retrieval metric, we propose to evaluate the coherence of a topic model (containing many topics) by averaging the top-ranked topics within the topic model. Our proposed metrics can not only evaluate the coherence of topics and topic models, but also can help users to choose the most coherent topics. Second, we aim to extract topics with a high coherence from Twitter data. Such topics can be easily interpreted by humans and they can assist to examine 'what' has been discussed on Twitter and 'when'. Indeed, we argue that topics can be discussed in different time periods and therefore can be effectively identified and distinguished by considering their time periods. Hence, we propose an effective time-sensitive topic modelling approach by integrating the time dimension of tweets (i.e. 'when'). We show that the time dimension helps to generate topics with a high coherence. Hence, we argue that 'what' has been discussed and 'when' can be effectively addressed by our proposed time-sensitive topic modelling approach. Next, to identify 'who' participated in the topic discussions, we propose approaches to identify the community affiliations of Twitter users, including automatic ground-truth generation approaches and a user community classification approach. To generate ground-truth data for training a user community classifier, we show that the mentioned hashtags and entities in the users' tweets can indicate which community a Twitter user belongs to. Hence, we argue that they can be used to generate the ground-truth data for classifying users into communities. On the other hand, we argue that different communities favour different topic discussions and their community affiliations can be identified by leveraging the discussed topics. Accordingly, we propose a Topic-Based Naive Bayes (TBNB) classification approach to classify Twitter users based on their words and discussed topics. We demonstrate that our TBNB classifier together with the ground-truth generation approaches can effectively identify the community affiliations of Twitter users. Finally, to show the generalisation of our approaches, we apply our approaches to analyse 3.6 million tweets related to US Election 2016 on Twitter. We show that our TBNB approach can effectively identify the 'who', i.e. classify Twitter users into communities by using hashtags and the discussed topics. To investigate 'what' these communities have discussed, we apply our time-sensitive topic modelling approach to extract coherent topics. We finally analyse the community-related topics evaluated and selected using our proposed topic coherence metrics. Overall, we contribute to provide effective approaches to assist social scientists towards analysing political events on Twitter. These approaches include topic coherence metrics, a time-sensitive topic modelling approach and approaches for classifying the community affiliations of Twitter users. Together they make progress to study and understand the connections and dynamics among communities on Twitter.
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Hannemann, Henrik Jonathan Nicolai. "Conservation planning in Europe : ecological, financial, and political challenges." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2017. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:6180deed-8bab-4932-8a7c-e5bd54f765ed.
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Conservation of biodiversity and sustainable resource use are central aims within ecology. This thesis focuses on the current data and environmental frameworks used to support these aims across different states in Europe. In particular, it examines the impact of geo-political boundaries on data-use, funding and planning for temporal movement of species in response to climate change. It also examines the current environmental framework agreements in Europe and their capacity to deal with trans-boundary aspects of biodiversity change. Through examination of European biodiversity datasets, undertaking species distribution modelling of forest taxa, examining economic data, palaeo-ecological data, and assessing international environmental framework agreements, this thesis identifies a number of important knowledge gaps. Probably unsurprisingly, the distribution of biodiversity in Europe mostly does not match political entities, all of which have individual aims, financial resources, and biodiversity management regimes in place. All have a significant impact on biodiversity conservation planning because i) the use of geo-politically truncated data influences modelling predictions, ii) financial commitment to biodiversity conservation varies between countries influencing success outcomes, iii) biodiversity persistence in current and future climate change does not recognise geo-political boundaries, and iv) many of the key environmental frameworks are implemented within countries and do not considering trans-boundary issues. Overall these findings significantly improve the understanding of conservation and resource management in Europe and fill a number of important knowledge gaps. They highlight the importance of appropriate trans-boundary ecological datasets and the need for more consistency across Europe in financial resources for biodiversity conservation. They also highlight the need for appreciation of areas of high-persistent biodiversity regardless of geo-political boundaries and environmental framework agreements that support cross-border conservation measures.
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Khan, Saad Ullah. "Exploring the effect of political risks in large infrastructure projects in politically unstable countries using a probabilistic modelling approach." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2014. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/79325/1/Saad_Khan_Thesis.pdf.
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This research aims to explore and identify political risks on a large infrastructure project in an exaggerated environment to ascertain whether sufficient objective information can be gathered by project managers to utilise risk modelling techniques. During the study, the author proposes a new definition of political risk; performs a detailed project study of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project in Pakistan; implements a probabilistic model using the principle of decomposition and Bayes probabilistic theorem and answers the question: was it possible for project managers to obtain all the relevant objective data to implement a probabilistic model?
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TROMBETTA, FEDERICO. "MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE TYPE OF GOVERNMENT." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/6224.
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Questa tesi contribuisce alla letteratura di economia politica attraverso l’analisi degli effetti di una crisi economica sulla tipologia di governo. In particolare, ci si concentra su due tipologie di governo che possono essere viste come anomalie empiricamente correlate a fenomeni di crisi economica e finanziaria: il populismo e la tecnocrazia.
Dopo una rassegna critica della letteratura esistente, si sviluppano due distinti modelli di teoria dei giochi. Il primo analizza il populismo nel contesto di una relazione principale-agente tra l’elettore e il politico. Concentrandosi su come la probabilità che si affermi un governo populista è influenzata dai parametri che catturano la situazione economica del Paese, si dimostra che, in un contesto di crisi economica, è più probabile che il governo attui provvedimenti populisti.
Il secondo modello spiega la comparsa di un governo tecnocratico (e in parte anche la sua stabilità) in un sistema politico in cui gli agenti principali sono due partiti e, in alcuni casi, un gruppo di tecnocrati. Qui si prova che il governo tecnocratico ha più probabilità di emergere in un contesto di crisi economica, quando il parlamento è equamente diviso e quando la distanza ideologica tra i due partiti è sufficientemente grande.This thesis contributes to the literature on theoretical political economy analyzing the effects of economic crisis on the types of government. In particular, we focus on two types of government that can be seen as anomalies empirically related with the emergence of financial and economic crisis: populism and technocracy. After a critical survey of the existing literature on those topics, we develop two different game-theoretical models. The first one studies populism in the context of a standard political-agency relationship between a voter and a politician. We see how the likelihood of the emergence of a populist government is affected by parameters representing the economic conditions of a country, and we find that, in a context of economic crisis, the government is more likely to make populist decisions. The second model explains the emergence of a technocratic government (and captures some issues related to its stability) in a post-election partisan politics setting where the main players are two parties and possibly a group of technocrats. We prove that the technocratic government is more likely to emerge in a context of economic crisis, when the parliament is evenly split and the ideological distance between the two parties is big enough.
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Urselmans, Linda. "Agent-based modelling of complex systems in political science : social norms and tolerance in immigrant societies." Thesis, University of Essex, 2018. http://repository.essex.ac.uk/22040/.
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Migration is a political issue that has received more attention in recent years. Many questions remain as to how Western societies can successfully absorb migrants- economic arguments have largely been in favour of migration, but the social impact of diversity in previously homogeneous societies has been subject to ongoing debates in social science. Migrant societies are complex social systems with many interacting moving parts. How do rapid migration-changes in society affect the hosts? How do norms of tolerance towards minorities hold up when intergroup con icts emerge? Can segregating behaviour of different population groups be reduced by encouraging different settlement locations for new migrants? The questions address both the physical aspect of migrants entering an already populated space, and the social dimension in which the hosts are adapting their attitudes. I develop a Schelling model using Agent-based modelling to address these questions. I introduce the concept of external migration into an existing society and test how, by varying the kind of migration, introducing diversity affects local tolerance. In the second chapter, I show that large-scale migration results in short-term shocks to the populace, but that these effects are heavily dependent on the population density and how large the native majority is. In Chapter 3 I implement a version of the `contact hypothesis' which stipulates that contact with out-group members increases tolerance and I show that the adaptability increases the importance of native majorities further. In the fourth chapter, I move on to the social norms of tolerance, introducing an ABM in which agents can deceive others by signalling false information about their true attitudes. I show that the emergent pattern of these behaviours can lead to a false consensus effect in which the perceived majority public opinion is unstable. The thesis is able to generate societies that bear many similarities with the Western countries of today and can suggest explanations for the mechanisms that lead to changes in public opinion more negative towards migration, as well as reasons for growing separation of different population groups.
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Acik-Toprak, Necla. "Civic engagement in Europe : a multilevel study of the effect of individual and national determinants on political participation, political consumerism and associational involvement." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2009. http://www.manchester.ac.uk/escholar/uk-ac-man-scw:94093.
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Active and engaged citizens are the backbone of a strong democracy and a vibrant civil society. Yet recent trends of low electoral turnout in Europe and decreasing levels of civic engagement have called into question the legitimacy of governments and the stability of democracy in the long term, particularly in Europe. Against the background of such developments this research sets out to provide a comparative study of civic engagement and analyse the variations in civic engagement between countries. The study is mainly based on the analysis of the European Social Survey 2002, covering 35,000 individuals from 19 European countries and applies advanced statistical modelling techniques including Multiple Correspondence Analysis MCA) and Multi-level modelling. Although there is a good deal of research examining civic engagement using individual level data or aggregate level data, very few studies have combined both approaches. This study addresses this gap and applies multi-level modelling to examine the relative importance of an individual’s socio-demographic characteristics and his/her country in determining levels and types of civic engagement. Thus, it has the advantage of identifying whether civic engagement is significantly affected by country characteristics or the converse, whether a person’s characteristics (age, education, social class etc.) are all that is needed in order to account for the variations in civic engagement. The innovative application of MCA to explore indicators of civic engagement has led to the identification of three dimensions of civic engagement; political activities, political consumerism and associational involvement. Moreover, by projecting all activities on a two-dimensional map it become evident that citizens who tend to carry out ‘individual’ types of political consumerism such as ‘buycotting’, boycotting and signing petitions are also more likely to be involved in New Social Movement organisations. These significant results shed new light on activities usually regarded as ‘individualistic’ type of activities and suggest viewing them in the context of a wider array of collective actions. Furthermore, in addition to the standard contextual measures such as economic development, welfare regime, income inequality, and levels of democracy, this study introduced two innovative policy measures. To consider the impact of government policies on levels of civic engagement measures of governments’ support of the voluntary sector and civic education at school (comparing the education policies of 19 European countries from 1945-2002) were developed. The results confirmed the importance of both individual level characteristics as well as country level characteristics in explaining civic engagement in Europe. However, differences between countries were reduced to a greater degree when contextual factors were introduced. Particularly the welfare state, showed the greatest effect. This implies that socio-economic conditions and in particular social policy and the degree to which it reproduces egalitarian structures determine to a great extent citizen involvement. In other words the results of this study suggest that the national context matters and that governments can and do shape the nature and levels of civic engagement.
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Loughran, Thomas Ivan Powell. ""A values based electorate?" : how do voters in West European democracies convert their political values into vote choice preferences?" Thesis, University of Manchester, 2016. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/a-values-based-electoratehow-do-voters-in-west-european-democracies-convert-their-political-values-into-vote-choice-preferences(b1716c93-c730-41e8-acfb-846bb2d51fcd).html.
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It has long been argued that underlying values should hold a central role in political analysis. This would seem particularly relevant in an era of de-alignment and catch-all parties in which political actors often make direct values orientated appeals to the electorate. With the expansion in appropriate data and measures available to empirical researchers, the last two decades have seen a substantial increase in the number of studies directly addressing the values-voting relationship. Values based explanations of vote choice have contributed to a more nuanced understanding of the processes underlying voter preferences and the structure of public opinion within democratic electorates. This existing empirical literature has generally focused on analysing the role of values on voting in single electoral contexts. While this approach has generated many useful findings that establish the role of values in differentiating political choice, it has only partially explored the contextual mechanisms through which values influence vote choice. This is necessary in order to understand under what political conditions values are likely to become more relevant to vote choice decisions. This thesis is an attempt to address three aspects of this gap in the cross-national research literature on values and voting using analyses of data from the 1990 and 2008 waves of the European Values Survey. Firstly it provides a cross-national analysis of core political values that enables a comparison of the role of values in structuring electoral competition across 15 West European countries. Secondly, it estimates the role that left-right political identity has in mediating the influence of values on vote choice using a structural path model. This provides a cross-national test of this mechanism and therefore assesses variation in the values-voting relationship across different national contexts. Thirdly, the thesis provides a systematic empirical analysis of the influence of political context on the values-voting relationship by testing the effect that macro level system factors, such as polarisation and the number of parties, have on the influence of values. The headline findings of the thesis are that political values are dynamic constructs that can demonstrate subtle variations in the preferences of voters across different electoral contexts. Political values have a multi-dimensional influence on electoral choice; with variation in voter preferences being highlighted by both value differentiation (having opposite preferences for the same value dimension) and emphasis (having a preference for different values). Left-right identity can act as both a mediator and a confounder of political values influence on vote choice. Political context is primarily relevant to the influence of values on voting through the content of supply side party competition as opposed to the structure of that competition. Overall, the study argues the findings show that supply side political context plays a crucial role in defining the parameters and strength of the values-voting relationship in each specific electoral arena.
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Lohmann, Dirk. "Sustainable management of semi-arid African savannas under environmental and political change." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2012. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2013/6506/.
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Drylands cover about 40% of the earth’s land surface and provide the basis for the livelihoods of 38% of the global human population. Worldwide, these ecosystems are prone to heavy degradation. Increasing levels of dryland degradation result a strong decline of ecosystem services. In addition, in highly variable semi-arid environments changing future environmental conditions will potentially have severe consequences for productivity and ecosystem dynamics. Hence, global efforts have to be made to understand the particular causes and consequences of dryland degradation and to promote sustainable management options for semi-arid and arid ecosystems in a changing world.
Here I particularly address the problem of semi-arid savanna degradation, which mostly occurs in form of woody plant encroachment. At this, I aim at finding viable sustainable management strategies and improving the general understanding of semi-arid savanna vegetation dynamics under conditions of extensive livestock production. Moreover, the influence of external forces, i.e. environmental change and land reform, on the use of savanna vegetation and on the ecosystem response to this land use is assessed. Based on this I identify conditions and strategies that facilitate a sustainable use of semi-arid savanna rangelands in a changing world.
I extended an eco-hydrological model to simulate rangeland vegetation dynamics for a typical semi-arid savanna in eastern Namibia. In particular, I identified the response of semi-arid savanna vegetation to different land use strategies (including fire management) also with regard to different predicted precipitation, temperature and CO2 regimes.
Not only environmental but also economic and political constraints like e.g. land reform programmes are shaping rangeland management strategies. Hence, I aimed at understanding the effects of the ongoing process of land reform in southern Africa on land use and the semi-arid savanna vegetation. Therefore, I developed and implemented an agent-based ecological-economic modelling tool for interactive role plays with land users. This tool was applied in an interdisciplinary empirical study to identify general patterns of management decisions and the between-farm cooperation of land reform beneficiaries in eastern Namibia.
The eco-hydrological simulations revealed that the future dynamics of semi-arid savanna vegetation strongly depend on the respective climate change scenario. In particular, I found that the capacity of the system to sustain domestic livestock production will strongly depend on changes in the amount and temporal distribution of precipitation. In addition, my simulations revealed that shrub encroachment will become less likely under future climatic conditions although positive effects of CO2 on woody plant growth and transpiration have been considered. While earlier studies predicted a further increase in shrub encroachment due to increased levels of atmospheric CO2, my contrary finding is based on the negative impacts of temperature increase on the drought sensitive seedling germination and establishment of woody plant species.
Further simulation experiments revealed that prescribed fires are an efficient tool for semi-arid rangeland management, since they suppress woody plant seedling establishment. The strategies tested have increased the long term productivity of the savanna in terms of livestock production and decreased the risk for shrub encroachment (i.e. savanna degradation). This finding refutes the views promoted by existing studies, which state that fires are of minor importance for the vegetation dynamics of semi-arid and arid savannas. Again, the difference in predictions is related to the bottleneck at the seedling establishment stage of woody plants, which has not been sufficiently considered in earlier studies.
The ecological-economic role plays with Namibian land reform beneficiaries showed that the farmers made their decisions with regard to herd size adjustments according to economic but not according to environmental variables. Hence, they do not manage opportunistically by tracking grass biomass availability but rather apply conservative management strategies with low stocking rates. This implies that under the given circumstances the management of these farmers will not per se cause (or further worsen) the problem of savanna degradation and shrub encroachment due to overgrazing. However, as my results indicate that this management strategy is rather based on high financial pressure, it is not an indicator for successful rangeland management. Rather, farmers struggle hard to make any positive revenue from their farming business and the success of the Namibian land reform is currently disputable. The role-plays also revealed that cooperation between farmers is difficult even though obligatory due to the often small farm sizes. I thus propose that cooperation needs to be facilitated to improve the success of land reform beneficiaries.Semiaride (halbtrockene) Savannen bedecken große Teile der Erdoberfläche und sichern die Lebensgrundlage von vielen Millionen Menschen. Die häufigste Form der Landnutzung in diesen Trockengebieten ist die Produktion von Vieh in extensiver Weidelandbewirtschaftung. In Folge klimatischer Veränderungen und als Konsequenz aus der teils intensiven Beweidung dieser Trockengebiete kommt es häufig zur Degradierung derselben in Form einer Zunahme von ‚unerwünschter‘ holziger Vegetation auf Kosten von futterverwertbaren Gräsern. Dieser als Verbuschung bezeichnete Prozess hat schwere negative Auswirkungen auf die betroffenen Ökosysteme und ist die Ursache für einen zunehmenden Rückgang der ökonomischen Leistungsfähigkeit der betroffenen Betriebe. In meiner Dissertation befasse ich mich mit den Auswirkungen von Klimawandel und politischen Veränderungen auf die Savannenvegetation im südlichen Afrika und auf die Möglichkeiten für die Nutzung dieser Ökosysteme in Form von Viehwirtschaft. Hierbei möchte ich sowohl das allgemeine Verständnis der ökologischen Zusammenhänge verbessern, als auch Strategien für die nachhaltige Nutzung der Savannen identifizieren und bewerten. Da nicht nur ökologische, sondern auch ökonomische und politische Einflussfaktoren, wie zum Beispiel die umfangreichen Landumverteilungen im Rahmen der Bodenreform im südlichen Afrika auf die tatsächliche Landnutzung wirken, habe ich im Rahmen der Dissertation zudem untersucht, nach welchen Umwelt und Kapitalvariablen sich die Farmer, welche Ihr Land im Rahmen der Bodenreform zugeteilt bekommen haben, bei Ihren Entscheidungen richten. Methodisch verwende ich verschiedene Simulationsmodelle, welche zur Untersuchung der langfristigen Veränderungen von verschiedensten Szenarien (Klimawandel, Landnutzung) geeignet sind. Hierbei habe ich teilweise bestehende Modelle angepasst, aber auch ein neues Modell, welches zur Befragung von Farmern in Namibia verwendet wurde, entwickelt. Meine Dissertation führt im Wesentlichen zu vier Erkenntnissen: Erstens, zeigen meine Ergebnisse, welche große Bedeutung die spezifischen ökologischen Eigenschaften der Bäume und Sträucher in semiariden Savannen für die Vorhersage der Entwicklung dieser Systeme unter Klimawandel hat. Hierbei zeigte sich, dass insbesondere die Sensitivität der Keimlinge gegenüber Trockenheit und Feuer eine entscheidende Rolle spielt. Daraus folgt die zweite wesentliche Erkenntnis: Feuer eignet sich in herausragender Weise, um halbtrockene Savannen vor der Verbuschung zu bewahren. Drittens haben die Rollenspiele mit Farmern in Namibia gezeigt, dass deren Entscheidungen im Wesentlichen von finanziellen Schwierigkeiten und nicht von Umwelteinflüssen getrieben werden. Dennoch zeigten meine Ergebnisse, dass diese Farmer mit Ihrem derzeitigen Verhalten wahrscheinlich nicht zur weiteren Degradierung der Savannenvegetation beitragen. Die vierte, und mit am bedeutendste Erkenntnis aus meiner Arbeit ist, dass konservative Beweidungsstrategien mit geringen und konstanten Viehdichten notwendig sind um semiaride Savannen dauerhaft in ökologisch und ökonomisch nachhaltiger Weise zu Nutzen.
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Fuentes, Claudio. "Democracy and incumbency : a mixed method strategy to understand political support from the results of deputies' elections in Chile." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2018. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/democracy-and-incumbency-a-mixed-method-strategy-to-understand-political-support-from-the-results-of-deputiesa-elections-in-chile(6ac1fbde-ae05-432f-b384-ff6406aab0e9).html.
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This doctoral dissertation examines whether incumbency affects democracy, and if it does, how re-election impacts on the political system. This thesis links and extends two theoretical traditions that hardly ever have been combined: political support theory and incumbency theory. Political support theory is used as a proxy to examine democracy from a multidimensional perspective. In this theoretical tradition, there has been a considerable concentration of studies on developed nations, and which take a comparative approach. Also, there is persistently inadequate attention given to measuring the form of a government, with a strong predominance of parliamentarian systems. Likewise, most of the research is focused at the individual level, in where the use of statistical techniques is prevailing, and the mixed methods are, nearly, non-existent. On the other hand, there are no studies that explain incumbency effects on democracy directly. Despite there being plenty of inferences which can be taken from incumbency analysis and its extrapolations about democracy and elections, there is a scarcity of studies that associate both political phenomena. In most cases, scholars analyse incumbency as an advantage in popular elections in developed countries, mainly the U.S. The main argument of this thesis proposes that incumbency has effects on democracy and that those impacts will have adverse consequences on the democratic system. Taking Chile as a case-study, a developing country with a presidential system and with similarities to Western party systems, this research seeks to respond three hypotheses. 1) The categories of support identified by Booth and Seligson in 2009 could, to an extent, be modified by including questions that gauge the role of the presidential institution in the Chilean political system. 2) It is expected that incumbency will be shown to have distinct impacts on democratic political legitimacy. 3) The effect of deputies' re-election on political legitimacy dimensions will depend on the composition of legislative pairs at the electoral district level in Chile: two newcomers, one newcomer and one incumbent, or two incumbents. This investigation uses a mixed method strategy. From a qualitative perspective, I characterise all law bills proposed to the NC to limit the re-elections of public authorities in Chile, between 11th March 1990 and 31st December 2016. In line with this doctoral dissertation's aims, a context analysis is used to analyse the content of draft laws related to incumbency. From a quantitative approach, I examine the legislative incumbency effects on political legitimacy dimensions in Chile, from 2008 to 2014. In line with this doctoral dissertation's aim, a series of statistical techniques are used to analyse the effects of incumbency on political support. The findings suggest that: 1) The effects of incumbency are distributed differently according to the component of political legitimacy. 2) The rotation of political elites (seniority and the circulation of elected deputies) is the most substantial incumbency dimension to explain political support in comparison with the competition dimension. 3) The three indicators based on the margin of victory are only related negatively to support for government management. 4) The HDI has effects on political support, but they were inconsistent. 5) The legislative pair composition produces a moderator effect on incumbency indicators. 6) Politics and ideology play a pivotal role in understanding and explaining political support theory. This research concludes that is necessary to keep expanding studies that relate incumbency and democracy by taking other countries with different electoral systems, that arguments hold by politicians should be adjusted considering evidence, and it is imperative to reduce the perception-facts gap in citizens.
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Natalini, Davide. "Estimating the role of scarcity, prices and political fragility in food and fuel riots : a quantitative and agent-based modelling approach." Thesis, Anglia Ruskin University, 2016. http://arro.anglia.ac.uk/701893/.
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Climate and environmental changes are argued to increase the occurrence of conflict. In particular, two types of conflict seem to be driven by underlying environmental processes: food and fuel riots. Although research focussed on understanding the dynamics that cause food riots exists, the evidence is mixed and a solid quantitative analysis on the factors that cause these type of events is missing. Research on fuel riots is currently non-existent. The aim of this research was hence to identify, quantify and simulate the interconnections between scarcity of natural resources, international prices, political fragility and the occurrence of food and fuel riots. The approach implemented was mainly quantitative, with use of statistics, econometrics and Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). These methods allowed a parameterisation of these relationships and inclusion of the results in three different version of an ABM: Food, Fuel and Food and Fuel ABMs. The findings show that national availability of resources does not significantly impact the occurrence of food and fuel riots, while international prices and national political fragility do. Thresholds above which riots are more likely to happen were identified for both the price of food and fuel. For food, volatility was found to have a bigger impact than absolute prices, while for fuel the evidence was mixed and more research is required. In addition, food and fuel riots increase the likelihood of one another. Although the introduction of these parameters in the ABMs did not add to the predictive power of the underlying statistical models, the ABMs form the basis for further developments, in particular as regards the evolution of shocks to the production of resources and consequences in terms of food and fuel riots. This is evidenced by the scenarios developed and implemented in this thesis.
Books on the topic "Political modelling"
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Byers, David. Modelling political popularity. Cardiff: Cardiff Business School,Financial and Banking Economics Research Group, 1995.
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Byers, David. Modelling political popularity. Cardiff: Cardiff Business School, 1995.
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Applied political economic modelling. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1989.
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Renaud, Paul S. A. Applied Political Economic Modelling. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83912-2.
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Bynner, John. Modelling childhood antecedents of political cynicism using structural equation modelling. London: Social Statistics Research Unit, City University, 1996.
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Schofield, Norman. Modelling political order in representative democracies. San Domenico (Firenze): The Robert Schuman Centre at the European University Institute, 1995.
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Piermartini, Roberta. Demystifying modelling methods for trade policy. Geneva, Switzerland: World Trade Organization, 2005.
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Hadjimatheou, George. Modelling public expenditure in Greece, Cyprus and the United Kingdom: Political considerations and displacement effects. Kingston-upon-Thames: Apex Centre, Kingston Polytechnic, 1990.
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Pant, Hom Moorti. Tariff determination in the general equilibrium of a political economy: A bargain-theoretic approach to policy modelling. Aldershot, Hants, England: Ashgate, 1997.
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Zuckerman, Alan S. Partisan families: The social logic of bounded partisanship in Germany and Britain. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Political modelling"
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Lilleker, Darren G. "Modelling Political Cognition." In Political Communication and Cognition, 198–205. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137313430_11.
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Philp, Mark. "Modelling Political Corruption in Transition." In Dimensionen politischer Korruption, 91–108. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-80518-8_6.
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Renaud, Paul S. A. "Introduction." In Applied Political Economic Modelling, 1–8. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83912-2_1.
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Renaud, Paul S. A. "A summary and evaluation." In Applied Political Economic Modelling, 209–28. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83912-2_10.
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Renaud, Paul S. A. "Discussion of the literature on government behavior." In Applied Political Economic Modelling, 9–20. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83912-2_2.
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Renaud, Paul S. A. "Government popularity, reelection efforts and ideology." In Applied Political Economic Modelling, 21–41. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83912-2_3.
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Renaud, Paul S. A. "The interest function approach." In Applied Political Economic Modelling, 42–54. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83912-2_4.
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Renaud, Paul S. A. "A behavioral model of government expenditure and transfer payments." In Applied Political Economic Modelling, 55–71. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83912-2_5.
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Renaud, Paul S. A. "An empirical application to the Netherlands: 1952–1986." In Applied Political Economic Modelling, 72–107. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83912-2_6.
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Renaud, Paul S. A. "Local government behavior." In Applied Political Economic Modelling, 109–19. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83912-2_7.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Political modelling"
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Garcia-Diaz, Cesar, Gilmar Zambrana, and Arjen van Witteloostujin. "Changing Dimensionality Of The Political Issue Space: Effects On Political Party Competition." In 26th Conference on Modelling and Simulation. ECMS, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2012-0690-0696.
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Monti, Corrado, Matteo Zignani, Alessandro Rozza, Adam Arvidsson, Giovanni Zappella, and Elanor Colleoni. "Modelling political disaffection from Twitter data." In the Second International Workshop. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2502069.2502072.
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Huguet Cabot, Pere-Lluís, Verna Dankers, David Abadi, Agneta Fischer, and Ekaterina Shutova. "The Pragmatics behind Politics: Modelling Metaphor, Framing and Emotion in Political Discourse." In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2020. Stroudsburg, PA, USA: Association for Computational Linguistics, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18653/v1/2020.findings-emnlp.402.
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"Supporting agricultural policy – the role of scientists and analysts in managing political risk." In 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ), Inc., 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.k3.matthews.
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Saabar, Suhaimee Saahar. "Political Information Efficacy And Sense-Making Process: “Structural Equation Modelling” (Sem) Approach." In 7th International Conference on Communication and Media. European Publisher, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2021.06.02.23.
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Cernohorska, Libena. "THE CRITICISM OF BASEL II BASED ON CREDIT RISK MODELLING." In SGEM 2014 Scientific SubConference on POLITICAL SCIENCES, LAW, FINANCE, ECONOMICS AND TOURISM. Stef92 Technology, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2014/b22/s6.091.
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Fricova, Darina. "PROCESS MANAGEMENT AND PROCESS MODELLING IN TERRITORIAL SELF-GOVERNMENT OF SLOVAKIA." In SGEM 2014 Scientific SubConference on POLITICAL SCIENCES, LAW, FINANCE, ECONOMICS AND TOURISM. Stef92 Technology, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2014/b21/s4.042.
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Kushneruk, Svetlana. "Two Days In The Life Of Leaders: World-Modelling Potential Of Political Event." In WUT 2018 - IX International Conference “Word, Utterance, Text: Cognitive, Pragmatic and Cultural Aspects”. Cognitive-Crcs, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2018.04.02.66.
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TULBURE, Narcis. "MODELLING CULTURE: A CRITICAL COMPARATIVE REVIEW OF THEORETICAL MODELS IN BEHAVIORAL CORPORATE FINANCE." In SGEM 2014 Scientific SubConference on POLITICAL SCIENCES, LAW, FINANCE, ECONOMICS AND TOURISM. Stef92 Technology, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2014/b22/s6.061.
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Fesnic, Florin. "Explaining political surprises (aka making methodology fun): determinants of voting in Ukrainian presidential elections." In Promoting Understanding of Statistics about Society. International Association for Statistical Education, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.52041/srap.16204.
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The majority of social science majors dislike statistics and research methods. Things can, and should be, different; (social) statistics and research methods can be interesting and fun. To do just that, I currently work on an applied methodology book project. Here I present a modified version of a draft chapter for the book, in which I answer the question why, in Ukraine, there was a strong negative correlation between the regional shares of the vote for Leonid Kuchma in two consecutive presidential elections. The modelling of political competition as two-dimensional (one socioeconomic, one ethno-linguistic) reveals the dominance of the latter dimension in Ukrainian politics. In addition to statistical and methodological lessons, the paper offers substantive lessons, relevant for the important role (positive or negative) that institutional design, policy-making and elite behavior can play in an ethnically divided emerging democracy.
Reports on the topic "Political modelling"
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Davies, Will. Improving the engagement of UK armed forces overseas. Royal Institute of International Affairs, January 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.55317/9781784135010.
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The UK government’s Integrated Review of security, defence, development and foreign policy, published in March 2021 alongside a supporting defence command paper, set a new course for UK national security and highlighted opportunities for an innovative approach to international engagement activity. The Integrated Review focused principally on the state threats posed by China’s increasing power and by competitors – including Russia – armed with nuclear, conventional and hybrid capabilities. It also stressed the continuing risks to global security and resilience due to conflict and instability in weakened and failed states. These threats have the potential to increase poverty and inequality, violent extremism, climate degradation and the forced displacement of people, while presenting authoritarian competitors with opportunities to enhance their geopolitical influence. There are moral, security and economic motives to foster durable peace in conflict-prone and weakened regions through a peacebuilding approach that promotes good governance, addresses the root causes of conflict and prevents violence, while denying opportunities to state competitors. The recent withdrawal from Afghanistan serves to emphasize the complexities and potential pitfalls associated with intervention operations in complex, unstable regions. Success in the future will require the full, sustained and coordinated integration of national, allied and regional levers of power underpinned by a sophisticated understanding of the operating environment. The UK armed forces, with their considerable resources and global network, will contribute to this effort through ‘persistent engagement’. This is a new approach to overseas operations below the threshold of conflict, designed as a pre-emptive complement to warfighting. To achieve this, the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) must develop a capability that can operate effectively in weak, unstable and complex regions prone to violent conflict and crises, not least in the regions on the eastern and southern flanks of the Euro-Atlantic area. The first step must be the development of a cohort of military personnel with enhanced, tailored levels of knowledge, skills and experience. Engagement roles must be filled by operators with specialist knowledge, skills and experience forged beyond the mainstream discipline of combat and warfighting. Only then will individuals develop a genuinely sophisticated understanding of complex, politically driven and sensitive operating environments and be able to infuse the design and delivery of international activities with practical wisdom and insight. Engagement personnel need to be equipped with: An inherent understanding of the human and political dimensions of conflict, the underlying drivers such as inequality and scarcity, and the exacerbating factors such as climate change and migration; - A grounding in social sciences and conflict modelling in order to understand complex human terrain; - Regional expertise enabled by language skills, cultural intelligence and human networks; - Familiarity with a diverse range of partners, allies and local actors and their approaches; - Expertise in building partner capacity and applying defence capabilities to deliver stability and peace; - A grasp of emerging artificial intelligence technology as a tool to understand human terrain; - Reach and insight developed through ‘knowledge networks’ of external experts in academia, think-tanks and NGOs. Successful change will be dependent on strong and overt advocacy by the MOD’s senior leadership and a revised set of personnel policies and procedures for this cohort’s selection, education, training, career management, incentivization, sustainability and support.
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African Open Science Platform Part 1: Landscape Study. Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/assaf.2019/0047.
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This report maps the African landscape of Open Science – with a focus on Open Data as a sub-set of Open Science. Data to inform the landscape study were collected through a variety of methods, including surveys, desk research, engagement with a community of practice, networking with stakeholders, participation in conferences, case study presentations, and workshops hosted. Although the majority of African countries (35 of 54) demonstrates commitment to science through its investment in research and development (R&D), academies of science, ministries of science and technology, policies, recognition of research, and participation in the Science Granting Councils Initiative (SGCI), the following countries demonstrate the highest commitment and political willingness to invest in science: Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda. In addition to existing policies in Science, Technology and Innovation (STI), the following countries have made progress towards Open Data policies: Botswana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, South Africa and Uganda. Only two African countries (Kenya and South Africa) at this stage contribute 0.8% of its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to R&D (Research and Development), which is the closest to the AU’s (African Union’s) suggested 1%. Countries such as Lesotho and Madagascar ranked as 0%, while the R&D expenditure for 24 African countries is unknown. In addition to this, science globally has become fully dependent on stable ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) infrastructure, which includes connectivity/bandwidth, high performance computing facilities and data services. This is especially applicable since countries globally are finding themselves in the midst of the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR), which is not only “about” data, but which “is” data. According to an article1 by Alan Marcus (2015) (Senior Director, Head of Information Technology and Telecommunications Industries, World Economic Forum), “At its core, data represents a post-industrial opportunity. Its uses have unprecedented complexity, velocity and global reach. As digital communications become ubiquitous, data will rule in a world where nearly everyone and everything is connected in real time. That will require a highly reliable, secure and available infrastructure at its core, and innovation at the edge.” Every industry is affected as part of this revolution – also science. An important component of the digital transformation is “trust” – people must be able to trust that governments and all other industries (including the science sector), adequately handle and protect their data. This requires accountability on a global level, and digital industries must embrace the change and go for a higher standard of protection. “This will reassure consumers and citizens, benefitting the whole digital economy”, says Marcus. A stable and secure information and communication technologies (ICT) infrastructure – currently provided by the National Research and Education Networks (NRENs) – is key to advance collaboration in science. The AfricaConnect2 project (AfricaConnect (2012–2014) and AfricaConnect2 (2016–2018)) through establishing connectivity between National Research and Education Networks (NRENs), is planning to roll out AfricaConnect3 by the end of 2019. The concern however is that selected African governments (with the exception of a few countries such as South Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia and others) have low awareness of the impact the Internet has today on all societal levels, how much ICT (and the 4th Industrial Revolution) have affected research, and the added value an NREN can bring to higher education and research in addressing the respective needs, which is far more complex than simply providing connectivity. Apart from more commitment and investment in R&D, African governments – to become and remain part of the 4th Industrial Revolution – have no option other than to acknowledge and commit to the role NRENs play in advancing science towards addressing the SDG (Sustainable Development Goals). For successful collaboration and direction, it is fundamental that policies within one country are aligned with one another. Alignment on continental level is crucial for the future Pan-African African Open Science Platform to be successful. Both the HIPSSA ((Harmonization of ICT Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa)3 project and WATRA (the West Africa Telecommunications Regulators Assembly)4, have made progress towards the regulation of the telecom sector, and in particular of bottlenecks which curb the development of competition among ISPs. A study under HIPSSA identified potential bottlenecks in access at an affordable price to the international capacity of submarine cables and suggested means and tools used by regulators to remedy them. Work on the recommended measures and making them operational continues in collaboration with WATRA. In addition to sufficient bandwidth and connectivity, high-performance computing facilities and services in support of data sharing are also required. The South African National Integrated Cyberinfrastructure System5 (NICIS) has made great progress in planning and setting up a cyberinfrastructure ecosystem in support of collaborative science and data sharing. The regional Southern African Development Community6 (SADC) Cyber-infrastructure Framework provides a valuable roadmap towards high-speed Internet, developing human capacity and skills in ICT technologies, high- performance computing and more. The following countries have been identified as having high-performance computing facilities, some as a result of the Square Kilometre Array7 (SKA) partnership: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa, Tunisia, and Zambia. More and more NRENs – especially the Level 6 NRENs 8 (Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, and recently Zambia) – are exploring offering additional services; also in support of data sharing and transfer. The following NRENs already allow for running data-intensive applications and sharing of high-end computing assets, bio-modelling and computation on high-performance/ supercomputers: KENET (Kenya), TENET (South Africa), RENU (Uganda), ZAMREN (Zambia), EUN (Egypt) and ARN (Algeria). Fifteen higher education training institutions from eight African countries (Botswana, Benin, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania) have been identified as offering formal courses on data science. In addition to formal degrees, a number of international short courses have been developed and free international online courses are also available as an option to build capacity and integrate as part of curricula. The small number of higher education or research intensive institutions offering data science is however insufficient, and there is a desperate need for more training in data science. The CODATA-RDA Schools of Research Data Science aim at addressing the continental need for foundational data skills across all disciplines, along with training conducted by The Carpentries 9 programme (specifically Data Carpentry 10 ). Thus far, CODATA-RDA schools in collaboration with AOSP, integrating content from Data Carpentry, were presented in Rwanda (in 2018), and during17-29 June 2019, in Ethiopia. Awareness regarding Open Science (including Open Data) is evident through the 12 Open Science-related Open Access/Open Data/Open Science declarations and agreements endorsed or signed by African governments; 200 Open Access journals from Africa registered on the Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ); 174 Open Access institutional research repositories registered on openDOAR (Directory of Open Access Repositories); 33 Open Access/Open Science policies registered on ROARMAP (Registry of Open Access Repository Mandates and Policies); 24 data repositories registered with the Registry of Data Repositories (re3data.org) (although the pilot project identified 66 research data repositories); and one data repository assigned the CoreTrustSeal. Although this is a start, far more needs to be done to align African data curation and research practices with global standards. Funding to conduct research remains a challenge. African researchers mostly fund their own research, and there are little incentives for them to make their research and accompanying data sets openly accessible. Funding and peer recognition, along with an enabling research environment conducive for research, are regarded as major incentives. The landscape report concludes with a number of concerns towards sharing research data openly, as well as challenges in terms of Open Data policy, ICT infrastructure supportive of data sharing, capacity building, lack of skills, and the need for incentives. Although great progress has been made in terms of Open Science and Open Data practices, more awareness needs to be created and further advocacy efforts are required for buy-in from African governments. A federated African Open Science Platform (AOSP) will not only encourage more collaboration among researchers in addressing the SDGs, but it will also benefit the many stakeholders identified as part of the pilot phase. The time is now, for governments in Africa, to acknowledge the important role of science in general, but specifically Open Science and Open Data, through developing and aligning the relevant policies, investing in an ICT infrastructure conducive for data sharing through committing funding to making NRENs financially sustainable, incentivising open research practices by scientists, and creating opportunities for more scientists and stakeholders across all disciplines to be trained in data management.