Journal articles on the topic 'Policy scenario'
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Xiao, Yang, Qinli Xiong, and Kaiwen Pan. "What Is Left for Our Next Generation? Integrating Ecosystem Services into Regional Policy Planning in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China." Sustainability 11, no. 1 (December 20, 2018): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11010003.
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Land use/Land cover (LULC) changes as a result of policy planning influence ecosystem structures, processes, and functions, which are the basis for providing a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). There is an increasing consensus about the importance of integrating ES into ecological policy but quantifying the potential impacts of different policy on ES has proven difficult. We designed a remote sensing, geographic information system and scenario analysis-based approach to estimate and analyze the relationship between ES (soil conservation and carbon sequestration) and ecological policy designed to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China; a densely populated, highly modified watershed with serious soil erosion and flood hazard. Three alternative scenarios in 2050 were modeled for the Three Gorges Reservoir Area watershed. The model GEOMOD was used to predict future LULC changes due to policy planning. The ES models (Universal Soil Loss Equation model and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model) were designed to inform decisions, with an aim to align economic forces with conservation. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing scenarios for 2050 (Scenario1: Maintain current policy with no considerations of ES; Scenario2: Integrate ES into policy planning; Scenario3: Integrate ES into policy planning in view of the need of local people). Scenario-based LULC change analysis revealed that if the current afforestation policy continues (scenario 1), total ES would be further increased in 2050 due to expansion of forest cover. However, by targeting policy to improve ES provision (scenarios 2 and 3), ecological risks of soil loss can be significantly reduced and carbon sequestration enhanced. Scenario 3, thus, provided the best future environmental development scenario considering the need of local people in each region for ES. This scenario will theoretically help the Three Gorges Dam to harvest more ecological benefits through improvements in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. This study highlights the observation that including ES in policy planning and has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. This study highlights that including ES in policy planning has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. Hence, there is a need to encourage proper implementation of ecological policy to maintain and improve ES.
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Jo, Hanghun, Seong-A. Kim, and Heungsoon Kim. "Forecasting the Reduction in Urban Air Pollution by Expansion of Market Shares of Eco-Friendly Vehicles: A Focus on Seoul, Korea." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 22 (November 19, 2022): 15314. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215314.
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Due to global climate change, various countries have agreed upon the use of conventions. In this study, the eco-friendly vehicular policy on carbon neutrality implemented in Seoul, Korea, was examined. To this end, various policy-based scenarios were set, and the changes in automotive exhaust gas emissions were evaluated and compared. The evaluation method combined macroscopic and microscopic emission models as its analysis framework. Micro-traffic data available in Korea were used for analyses, and the results for all autonomous districts were derived to cover the entire area of Seoul. The findings confirmed that the most effective measure is the initial replacement of old, mid-size, or large diesel passenger cars with eco-friendly vehicles (Middle-sized: Scenario 2-1 5.52%, Scenario 2-2 6.86%, Scenario 3-1 80.93%, and Scenario 3-2 83.98%). The replacement of old vehicles exhibited the highest effect in all tested scenarios, while the initial replacement of diesel vehicles was more effective than the replacement of gasoline and liquified petroleum gas vehicles (Diesel: Scenario2-1 6.64%, Scenario 2-2 8.21%, Scenario3-1 86.23%, and Scenario 3-2 90.51%). Among the autonomous districts of Seoul, the Gangnam-gu area exhibited the largest emission-reduced effect among all the tested scenarios (Gangnam-gu: Scenario 2-1 5.80%, Scenario 2-2 6.74%, Scenario 3-1 80.44%, and Scenario 3-2 82.62%). Overall, it was demonstrated that the findings of this study may have significant policy implications in terms of urban emission changes pertaining to transportation.
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Svatošová, Veronika, and Josef Smolík. "The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 63, no. 5 (2015): 1749–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201563051749.
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The main objective of this paper is to create scenarios of possible development of social policy in the Czech Republic and evaluate the probability of each scenario. Based on the literature review and scenario method, three scenarios are created (scenario of a positive development, scenario of a negative development, and explorative scenario), which are compared with the current state of Czech social policy and which evaluate the possible development of Czech social policy in the period up to 2050. For the implementation of scenarios, basic factors that influence the development of Czech social policy are identified. The complementary research methods are creative methods brainstorming and mind mapping, modelling, an intuitive method of estimating trends and decision-making method of scoring. The research shows that the Czech social policy system is threatened without accepting the strategic and conceptual social policy solutions. The probability of the scenario of negative development (critical scenario) of Czech social policy is more than ninety percent. This scenario is based on a deep economic crisis, the collapse of the entire system of social policy and great social unrest. The created scenarios are useful for actors of social policy which can reverse the negative development of Czech social policy.
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Stead, Dominic, and David Banister. "Transport policy scenario-building." Transportation Planning and Technology 26, no. 6 (December 2003): 513–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0308106032000167382.
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Gunasekara, N. K., S. Kazama, D. Yamazaki, and T. Oki. "The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no. 8 (August 3, 2012): 9239–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-9239-2012.
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Abstract. The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.
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Chen, Tser-Yieth, and Chi-Jui Huang. "A Two-Tier Scenario Planning Model of Environmental Sustainability Policy in Taiwan." Sustainability 11, no. 8 (April 18, 2019): 2336. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11082336.
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This study proposes a two-tier scenario planning model, consisting of scenario development and policy portfolio planning, to demonstrate the environmental sustainability policy planning process. Scenario development embodies future scenarios that incorporate the uncertainties regarding the decision values and technological alternatives. Policy portfolio planning is used to assess the selected policy alternatives under each scenario and to develop a robust and responsive plan. We organized first- and second-tier committees of 10–12 experts from diverse professional fields to undertake environmental sustainability policy planning in Taiwan. The first-tier committee generated three scenarios: “live at the mercy of the elements”, “industry convergence”, and “technology pilot”. The second-tier committee ensured that, from cradle-to-cradle (C2C), green supply chain management (GSCM), and industry symbiosis (IS), life-cycle type policies enhance green willingness and capabilities in the businesses. This is the first study to consider the first-tier process with scenario development and the second-tier process with policy portfolio planning for environmental sustainability, and contributes by considering intuitive logics approach-based scenarios and robust policies for extant portfolio plans, providing life-cycle- type policy profiles in environmental sustainability.
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Ciaian, P. "Land use changes in the EU: Policy and macro impact analysis." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 53, No. 12 (January 7, 2008): 565–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/900-agricecon.
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This paper analyses the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and macroeconomy on land use changes in the EU. Three scenarios are simulated up to 2030: baseline, macro scenario and policy scenario. Simulation results indicate that GDP leads to a stronger effect on land use changes than the CAP. Stronger changes in land use are observed at the crop disaggregated level than at the aggregated level for the total agricultural area, arable land, grassland and permanent crops.
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Nugrahanto, Candra Arie, Jaka Windarta, and Jaka Aminata. "Analysis of Causality Relationship Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions to Economic Growth based on the LEAP Model Case Study of Energy Consumption in Indonesia 2010-2025)." E3S Web of Conferences 73 (2018): 01002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20187301002.
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This study discusses scenarios and analyzes the causal relationship of energy consumption and CO2 emissions to economic growth in Indonesia period 2010-2025. The modeling scenario is divided into 6 sections, namely BAU scenario, High scenario, Low scenario, High-Low scenario, Low-High scenario and Policy scenario. The result of scenario data is processed by performing statistical data modeling and econometric period 2010-2025. The research method used interpolation method and causality testing method. The tools are used in this research is LEAP and EViews. LEAP is used for energy modeling as well as CO2 emissions and EViews is used to manage data, analyze econometrics and statistics. The results of this study show that economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions at 6 scenario indicate fluctuated competitive growth. This study proves that only 1 scenario has direct causality relationship that is only energy consumption which statistically significant influence economic growth in Policy scenario. For economic growth and CO2 emissions there are 4 scenarios that have direct causality (BAU, High, High -Low, Low-High scenario), 1 scenario has no causality relationship (Low scenario) and 1 scenario has two -way causality relationship (Policy scenario).
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Van Lente, Harro, Jasper Willemse, Claartje Vorstman, and Johan F. Modder. "Scenario planning as policy instrument: Four scenarios for biotechnology in Europe." Innovation 5, no. 1 (September 2003): 4–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.5172/impp.2003.5.1.4.
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Anklam III, PhD, Charles, Adam Kirby, MS, Filipo Sharevski, MS, and J. Eric Dietz, PhD, PE. "Mitigating active shooter impact: Analysis for policy options based on agent/computer-based modeling." Journal of Emergency Management 13, no. 3 (May 1, 2015): 201. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/jem.2015.0234.
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Active shooting violence at confined settings, such as educational institutions, poses serious security concerns to public safety. In studying the effects of active shooter scenarios, the common denominator associated with all events, regardless of reason/intent for shooter motives, or type of weapons used, was the location chosen and time expended between the beginning of the event and its culmination. This in turn directly correlates to number of casualties incurred in any given event. The longer the event protracts, the more casualties are incurred until law enforcement or another barrier can react and culminate the situation.Objective: Using AnyLogic technology, devise modeling scenarios to test multiple hypotheses against free-agent modeling simulation to determine the best method to reduce casualties associated with active shooter scenarios.Design, setting, subjects: Test four possible scenarios of responding to active shooter in a public school setting using agent-based computer modeling techniques—scenario 1: basic scenario where no access control or any type of security is used within the school; scenario 2, scenario assumes that concealed carry individual(s) (5-10 percent of the work force) are present in the school; scenario 3, scenario assumes that the school has assigned resource officer; scenario 4, scenario assumes that the school has assigned resource officer and concealed carry individual(s) (5-10 percent) present in the school.Main outcomes measured: Statistical data from modeling scenarios indicating which tested hypothesis resulted in fewer casualties and quicker culmination of event.Results: The use of AnyLogic proved the initial hypothesis that a decrease on response time to an active shooter scenario directly reduced victim casualties.Conclusions: Modeling tests show statistically significant fewer casualties in scenarios where on-scene armed responders such as resource officers and concealed carry personnel were present.
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Uhrinčaťová, E. "Effects of the Common Agricultural Policy potential scenarios after 2013 in the Slovak Republic." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 57, No. 1 (January 27, 2011): 27–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/144/2010-agricecon.
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The contribution presents the modelling solution of the potential scenarios impact of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union after 2013 in the selected sectors of the Slovak Republic national economy. The solution is accomplished using the Computable General Equilibrium model with the emphasis on the productive and less favourable agricultural areas and the theoretical rents for agricultural land. If we take into consideration both pillars of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union, according to the modelling calculations in Slovak conditions the most favoured is the Conservative scenario, the Reference and the Flat Rate scenario are neutral and the least favourable is the Liberalisation scenario.
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Liu, Kai, Chuanxu Wang, Lin Liu, and Lang Xu. "Which group should governmental policies target? Effects of incentive policy for remanufacturing industry." RAIRO - Operations Research 55, no. 3 (May 2021): 1579–602. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/ro/2021012.
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Although previous research ignores other subsidy groups, we conduct a comprehensive study. In our closed-loop supply chain model, the manufacturer can produce either new products or remanufactured products of end-of-life products recycled by independent recyclers. Our core objective is to explore the production and recycling strategies of the two products under different government subsidy plans and which groups the government subsidy plans should target. Considering the consumers’ discount perception and uncertainty of recycling quantity, we construct four game scenarios: (1) no subsidy (Scenario N); (2) subsidy for the manufacturer (Scenario M); (3) subsidy for the recycler (Scenario R); (4) subsidy for consumers (Scenario C). The results show that the corporate profits and social welfare under scenario C are higher than those under other scenarios. If the government adopts scenario C, enterprise profits and social welfare will always be higher, but the downside is that government expenditure will also be higher. If considering the limited government funds, the government can set a medium subsidy level. Scenario M will bring sub-optimal social welfare to the government. For scenario R, government subsidies stimulate the recycling of end-of-life products and help recyclers increase their profits, but from the manufacturer’s perspective, manufacturers may resist this scenario.
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Peterson, Andrew M. "Scenario." American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy 53, no. 7 (April 1, 1996): 760. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajhp/53.7.760.
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Chojan, Adrian. "Brexit and Its Impact on Poland’s Policy Towards Europe – An Attempt to Forecast." Studia Europejskie - Studies in European Affairs 24, no. 2 (July 19, 2020): 91–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.33067/se.2.2020.5.
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Brexit has betrayed the disadvantages of the European project along with the fact that European institutions have no desire to conduct deeper reforms. Brexit cannot be considered without the stance that the British have developed not only in the last few years but generally over the period of its integration with continental Europe. A study shows the political consequences of the UK’s exit from the European Union alog with the potential scenarios of Poland’s European policy in the next 2–3 years. This article presents three scenarios for the development of Poland's European policy, i.e. the British scenario, a conservative scenario and a pro-European scenario. In addition, this article aims to show the potential activities of the Polish government in the context of selected scenarios for the development of the situation in Europe. Currently, the most likely is the British scenario, where the Polish government concentrates on those areas of integration that are important to it. The European Union will be treated by Poland as an economic organization providing access to the common European market as well as political support in the event of disputes with the powers. The adoption of the British scenario by Poland assumes an evolutionary drift towards polexit. The least realistic choice of scenario is the strongly pro-European approach. This would require a total change in Poland's European policy strategy and the abandoning of internal reforms.
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Suppanich, Poonnavich, Raksanai Nidhiritdhikrai, and Weerin Wangjiraniran. "Thailand Energy Scenarios to 2035." Advanced Materials Research 962-965 (June 2014): 1782–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.962-965.1782.
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The objective of this research is to explore Thailand energy scenarios to 2035. Based on decisions focus, energy security, social acceptance, and minimal environmental impact. From the studies by scenario planning method we found two main drivers affect to the scenario decision focus, consists of vulnerability of crude oil prices and government policy sanctioned by political will. The result of this research is Thailand energy scenarios to 2035, consists of 1) Healthy scenario, 2) Reference scenario, and 3) Coma scenario.
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Kola, Jukka. "Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy and agriculture in Finland." Agricultural and Food Science 7, no. 2 (January 1, 1998): 181–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.23986/afsci.72858.
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This article examines some possible paths and inherent political economy of the future reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and their implications for the Finnish agriculture. Scenario approach is qualitatively applied in respect of two policy scenarios, the Agenda 2000 reform proposals and the renationalisation of the CAP. In addition, the proposed European model of agriculture is briefly compared with the farm sector in the United States. Agenda 2000 is regarded as a threat scenario and the renationalisation of the CAP as a target scenario from the point of view of the Finnish agriculture in the European Union.
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Ng, Boon-Kwee, Chan-Yuan Wong, and Mary Grace P. Santos. "Grassroots innovation: Scenario, policy and governance." Journal of Rural Studies 90 (February 2022): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2022.01.004.
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UCHIDA, Takashi. "Scenario Workshop on Future Energy Policy." Journal of Research in Science Education 55, no. 4 (2015): 425–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.11639/sjst.14024.
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Socia, Kelly M., Christopher P. Dum, and Jason Rydberg. "Turning a Blind Eye: Public Support of Emergency Housing Policies for Sex Offenders." Sexual Abuse 31, no. 1 (July 22, 2017): 25–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1079063217720925.
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In this study, we examine the influences of citizen decision making in the context of four policy scenarios that would affect the living conditions of sex offenders (SOs) residing at an “emergency shelter” budget motel. We surveyed 773 citizens in an online survey about their support for four policy scenarios that would improve the living conditions of SOs: (a) at no cost to the respondent, (b) in exchange for a US$100 tax increase, and (c) by relocating SOs within the respondent’s neighborhood (i.e., “in my backyard”/IMBY scenario). The fourth scenario involved moving nearby SOs into substandard housing located far away from the respondent (i.e., “not in my backyard”/NIMBY). While prior research finds that the public overwhelmingly supports punitive SO policies, we find that indifference is a mainstay of public opinion about improving SO housing conditions. That is, we find only modest levels of average support for any of the policy scenarios, and policy support decreased when increased taxes would be involved, compared with a “no cost” scenario. While no respondent characteristics significantly predicted policy support consistently across all four scenarios, some scenarios showed stark differences in support when considering specific respondent characteristics. Overall, these results suggest that what does affect support depends on the details of the policy being proposed, as well as who is considering the policy. We end by discussing the policy implications of our study for both policymakers and the public.
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van Oost, Ellen, Stefan Kuhlmann, Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros, and Peter Stegmaier. "Futures of science with and for society: towards transformative policy orientations." Foresight 18, no. 3 (June 13, 2016): 276–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-10-2014-0063.
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Purpose How to derive policy implications from five future scenarios of transformed research and innovation (R&I) systems? This paper analyzes methodological and content issues of five future scenarios of transformed R&I systems. The aim of this paper is to provide an outlook on strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of overarching intentions to foster “responsible” ambitions (in Europe and beyond, discussed as responsible research and innovation, RRI). Design/methodology/approach The paper elaborates a four-step methodology to assess the scenario’s policy implications: first, by articulating the scenario implications for six core dimensions of R&I systems; second, an RRI assessment framework is developed to assess in each scenario opportunities and limitations for transforming R&I systems towards responsibility goals; the third involves a cross-scenario analysis of similarities and differences between the scenarios, allowing the identification of robust policy options that make sense in more than one scenario. The last analytical step includes again the richness of the individual scenario assessments aiming to provide a broader outlook on transformative policy orientations. Findings The paper concludes with outlining the contours of a future-responsible R&I system together with some suggestions for transformative policy orientations that aim to govern the R&I system towards such a future, as a source of inspiration and reflection. Research limitations/implications The analysis is based on five future scenarios that do not systematically cover future developments external to the R&I system. Practical Implications An outlook of strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of the overarching European Union goal of encouraging the performance of RRI. Originality/value This paper provides inspirational anticipatory strategic intelligence for fostering the responsible ambitions of research with and for society.
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Horner, Nathaniel, Antonio Geraldo de Paula Oliveira, Richard Silberglitt, Marcelo Khaled Poppe, and Bárbara Bressan Rocha. "Energy foresight, scenarios and sustainable energy policy in Brazil." foresight 18, no. 5 (September 12, 2016): 535–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-06-2015-0035.
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Purpose This paper aims to use quantitative metrics to chart the unique history leading to Brazil’s leadership in renewable energy and identifies a set of meta-scenarios that define possible future carbon performance. These meta-scenarios provide a context for discussing specific energy policy implications both at the national scale and from the perspective of Brazil’s urban centres. Design/methodology/approach The paper defines and uses three metrics – energy efficiency, decarbonisation and carbon efficiency – to plot both Brazil’s historic energy pathway and a set of future energy scenarios put forth by various national and international energy agencies. The authors then use a meta-scenario approach to group these alternate pathways, identifying specific policy levers associated with the realisation of each. Findings The authors identify plausible policy changes that will help move Brazil off a current trajectory of stagnated energy performance to a “greener” scenario in which carbon efficiency improves even as Brazil’s economic growth continues. Such policies include energy efficiency programmes and continued expansion of the country’s already extensive hydropower and biomass capacity. Adoption of policies that would put Brazil on a more aggressive path towards a global sustainability scenario currently seems impractical. Originality/value This paper brings a standardized set of metrics to bear on Brazil’s unique energy history, which in turn helps identify specific policy impacts for continued GHG reduction in Brazil’s future from national and urban perspectives.
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Gunasekara, N. K., S. Kazama, D. Yamazaki, and T. Oki. "The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17, no. 11 (November 12, 2013): 4429–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4429-2013.
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Abstract. The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate more control over their future development pathways, even if these countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the European region, the population living in water-stressed regions is almost 20 times lower than that in the lower latitudes. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario, and the scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective in reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.
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Choi, Doo Sung, Jong-Sang Youn, Im Hack Lee, Young-Kwon Park, Byung Jin Choi, and Ki-Joon Jeon. "Analysis of National PM2.5 (FPM and CPM) Emissions by Past, Current, and Future Energy Mix Scenarios in the Republic of Korea." Sustainability 11, no. 16 (August 8, 2019): 4289. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11164289.
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The main purpose of this study was to analyze the Korean PM2.5 emissions according to the past, present, and future energy mix scenarios from 1970 to 2035, with the aim of identifying a sustainable, future environmentally friendly energy mix scenario for Korea related to PM2.5 emissions. To calculate the PM2.5 emissions according to an energy mix plan, we assumed two scenarios: (1) Scenario 1 is based on an energy conversion scenario established by the Korean government’s 7th electric power demand supply program; and (2) Scenario 2 is enhancement of fuel cell usage. In Scenario 1, filterable PM2.5 (FPM2.5) emission was calculated as 61,158 ton/year, which includes contributions of anthracite (46.8%), petroleum (39.7%), natural gas (LNG) (10.0%), and LPG (0.1%). In Scenario 2, FPM2.5 emission was calculated as 36,917 ton/year, which includes contributions of petroleum (47.8%), anthracite (40.3%), bituminous coal (10.1%), and LNG (1.7%). Thus, we concluded that the FPM2.5 mitigation effect from fuel cell policy enforcement is about 38.13% higher than the Korean national energy conversion policy. PM2.5 (FPM2.5 + condensable PM2.5 (CPM2.5)) emissions dramatically increased in both energy mix scenarios so that CPM2.5 should be considered when estimating PM2.5 emissions and PM2.5 reduction.
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Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong, Titiporn Tuangratananon, Nattadhanai Rajatanavin, Mathudara Phaiyarom, Warisara Jaruwanno, and Sonvanee Uansri. "Prioritization of the Target Population for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Vaccination Program in Thailand." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 20 (October 14, 2021): 10803. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182010803.
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Thailand was hit by the second wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a densely migrant-populated province (Samut Sakhon). COVID-19 vaccines were known to be effective; however, the supply was limited. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the effectiveness of Thailand’s COVID-19 vaccination strategy. We obtained most of the data from the Ministry of Public Health. Deterministic system dynamics and compartmental models were utilized. The reproduction number (R) between Thais and migrants was estimated at 1.25 and 2.5, respectively. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) to prevent infection was assumed at 50%. In Samut Sakhon, there were 500,000 resident Thais and 360,000 resident migrants. The contribution of migrants to the province’s gross domestic product was estimated at 20%. Different policy scenarios were analyzed. The migrant-centric vaccination policy scenario received the lowest incremental cost per one case or one death averted compared with the other scenarios. The Thai-centric policy scenario yielded an incremental cost of 27,191 Baht per one life saved, while the migrant-centric policy scenario produced a comparable incremental cost of 3782 Baht. Sensitivity analysis also demonstrated that the migrant-centric scenario presented the most cost-effective outcome even when VE diminished to 20%. A migrant-centric policy yielded the smallest volume of cumulative infections and deaths and was the most cost-effective scenario, independent of R and VE values. Further studies should address political feasibility and social acceptability of migrant vaccine prioritization.
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Miller, Monica K. "Judgments about sexual assault vary depending on whether an affirmative consent policy or a “no means no” policy is applied." Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research 12, no. 3 (June 23, 2020): 163–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jacpr-03-2020-0485.
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Purpose Affirmative consent (AC) policies require potential sexual partners to clearly and positively confirm that they want to engage in sexual behavior – in contrast to standard “no means no” policies, which typically define consent through resistance. AC policies might not be effective because they do not align well with typical scripts of how consent is given in practice. This study aims to compare participants’ judgments as to what constitutes sexual assault, using either an AC policy or a standard “no means no” policy. Design/methodology/approach Participants read 16 scenarios depicting various male-female sexual encounters and applied either an AC or a standard “no means no” policy to determine whether the encounter was consensual. Findings When an AC policy was used, participants were more likely to judge the scenario as sexual assault. Aspects of the scenario (which reflect AC policy criteria), such as the type of communication (verbal or nonverbal), clarity of communication (clear or unclear) and resistance (high or low) also affected judgments of the scenario. Relationship type (stranger vs acquaintance) did not affect judgments. Students were more likely to perceive the scenarios as sexual assault than community members; they also perceived differences between scenarios based on verbal communication and clarity more than community members. Finally, there was no main effect of participant gender, however, men perceived differences between scenarios based on verbal communication type, whereas women did not. Research limitations/implications Findings indicate that participants are generally able to apply AC policies correctly, even though AC criteria do not generally align with common sexual scripts. Originality/value This is the first study known to test whether decision-makers can properly apply criteria outlined in AC policies and whether the application of these policies affect decisions-makers judgments as to whether a sexual encounter is consensual or assault.
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Tahri, Firdawss, Mohamed Karim, and Othmane Tanjali. "Budget Profile and Fiscal Policy in Morocco." Journal of Economics and Public Finance 5, no. 4 (November 28, 2019): p514. http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/jepf.v5n4p514.
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This paper examines the structural changes that have marked the profile of public finance since 2012, and list the main internal challenges that Morocco is facing in managing public finances. The second part is devoted to presenting four approaches (the effective tax rate, the marginal tax rate, the elasticity, the regression and the analysis of co-integration) used by international institutions to forecast fiscal revenues. Then we estimate deficit government income and expenditure in 2020 and 2021, considering two scenarios; a baseline and an alternative scenario. The results of the alternative scenario shows the sustainability of policy decisions that; (i) raise resources for growth stimulating sectors; infrastructure sector, education and health, scientific research and governance, and (ii) reduce energy uses while ensuring the shift towards cleaner energy.
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Chang, Youngho, and Han Phoumin. "Harnessing Wind Energy Potential in ASEAN: Modelling and Policy Implications." Sustainability 13, no. 8 (April 12, 2021): 4279. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13084279.
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This study examines whether and how harnessing more wind energy can decrease the cost of meeting the demand for electricity and amount of carbon emissions in the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, using the ASEAN integrated electricity trade model. Three scenarios are considered: a counterfactual business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which assumes no wind energy is used; an actual BAU scenario that uses the wind-generation capacity in 2018; and a REmap scenario, which employs the wind-generation capacity from the Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN. Simulation results suggest that dispatching more wind energy decreases the cost of meeting the demand for electricity and amount of carbon emissions. However, these emissions increase during the late years of the study period, as the no- or low-emitting energy-generation technologies are crowded out.
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Boughanmi, H., L. Zaibet, O. Al-Jabri, and T. AI-Hinai. "Constructing a Social Accounting Matrix: Concepts and Use in Economic Policy Analysis." Journal of Agricultural and Marine Sciences [JAMS] 7, no. 1 (January 1, 2002): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jams.vol7iss1pp1-11.
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The objective of this paper was to construct a social accounting matrix (SAM) and show how it can be used to determine the economy-wide and sectoral effects of external shocks and various policy options available using Oman as a model. We first constructed an aggregate SAM (macro SAM) based on the country’s national accounts which provided the control totals for a multisectoral, multi-institutional SAM. Then, we used the SAM to derive the multiplier matrix coefficients and simulated the effects of four policy scenarios: 1) an increase in agricultural and manufacturing exports (diversification scenario), 2) an increase in oil export value, 3) a reduction in worker remittances, and 4) an income transfer to rural households (equity scenario). Results showed that the diversification scenario had the largest overall production multiplier, while the increase in oil export price scenario had the highest impact on government revenue, balance of trade and saving. The remittance control scenario had the highest impact on total household income but most of the income increase went to urban households. The equity scenario had the second largest increase on household income, mostly rural income, but the least effect on saving, and trade balance. The policy implications of these simulations are not clear-cut. In addressing development issues, policy makers would need to use a combination of policy instruments to achieve a specific objective.
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Çelik, Muhammed, and Zehra Vildan Serin. "A system dynamics approach to food security: The case of Turkey." International Journal of ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES 9, no. 2 (February 2022): 22–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2022.02.003.
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Predicting a sustainable food safety policy for the near future is among Turkey's priority problems. In this context, this study aims to predict Turkey's sustainable food safety policies. For this reason, the system dynamics model, which is a dynamic cycle-based method with stock and flow diagrams, is used in this paper. This study supposed the six different scenarios for 2020 and 2050. Data were selected as population, productivity rate, arable land fertility rate, and annual food consumption (per capita). The purpose of creating these scenarios; To determine the most appropriate policy to ensure food safety in Turkey. In the first scenario, we assumed that the current situation continues. In the second scenario, the average productivity rate was increased by 1.5%. The third scenario assumes that annual per capita food consumption rises to 1.2 tonnes per year. In the fourth scenario, the total fertility rate is accelerated by 2%. In the fifth scenario, we assumed that the arable land loss rate decreased by 1/3. Finally, we assumed that the sixth scenario covers all the second, third, fourth, and fifth scenarios and that 2 points reduce food losses. In conclusion, the findings show that food security responds positively in scenarios 2 and 6. However, in other scenarios, food security is negatively affected. The findings show that the sixth scenario is the best-case scenario. To ensure food security, it is necessary to reduce arable land losses and food waste. Training farmers and control of the food supply chain will be beneficial for sustainable food security in Turkey. We recommend that policymakers consider these recommendations.
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De Somer, Marie. "Schengen: Quo Vadis?" European Journal of Migration and Law 22, no. 2 (June 19, 2020): 178–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/15718166-12340073.
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Abstract The EU’s Schengen zone has been in crisis for over four years. This article critically reviews three scenarios on the way forward for the Schengen area that are currently circulating in the EU policy sphere. These include, first, proposals to improve the current rules on internal border checks within the Schengen Borders Code, either through reform or through better implementation practices. A second scenario relates to ideas on increasing the use of police checks in border regions as alternatives for internal border controls. A third scenario links to proposals on making access to the Schengen zone conditional on cooperation and good governance in the CEAS. It is submitted that the proposals in this third scenario are unfeasible for both political as well as legal reasons. More merit can be found in the discussions around the first two scenarios, albeit bearing in mind a number of important caveats.
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Santoso, Imam, Miftahus Sa'adah, and Siti Asmaul Mustaniroh. "Scenario development for improving supply chain performance using the system dynamics approach." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 8, no. 4 (November 10, 2019): 535. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v8i4.29796.
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Supply chain management integrates the entire business process of a product from upstream to downstream with the aim of delivering products to consumers in a timely manner and precise quantity without overriding profit. The application of dynamics systems is aimed to provide a holistic view of the system and to identify how interrelationship affects the system as a whole. System dynamics approach is used to analyze the efforts to improve performance. Besides being used as an analysis related to the model, system dynamics can also be used to formulate effective policy related to the profit distribution in case study of bell pepper supply chain. In this study, several scenarios were used as references to improve bell pepper supply chain performance in Regency X. The stake holders in the supply chain were farmer, middleman, and wholesaler. There were three sub-models used in system dynamics, namely the sub-model farmer, middleman, and wholesaler. The model in the system dynamics was then developed to find out the best scenario in improving the performance of bell pepper supply chain. The scenario developed consisted of 4 scenarios in which scenario 1 became the basic scenario as the comparison of simulation results. Then, Scenario 2 was a Supply-Demand arrangement to reduce losses obtained at the level of middleman and wholesaler. The policy of Scenario 3 was warehouse procurement, which was a model improvement scenario in Scenario 3. Lastly, Scenario 4 was an increase in the level of demand / market expansion without an increase in the number of production. The highest total supply chain profit from the four scenarios was in Scenario 3, while the lowest was Scenario 2.
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Novik A., Ana, and Paulina Nazal. "The New Scenario for Chilean Trade Policy." Latin American Journal of Trade Policy 3, no. 6 (May 1, 2020): 88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5354/0719-9368.2020.57169.
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This is a personal reflection; it does not necessarily represent the opinion of the OECD or its members, nor of the Undersecretariat for International Economic Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Chile.
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Paranjpe, Nalini. "Bureaucracy, Liberalisation Policy and Social Sector Scenario." Indian Journal of Public Administration 42, no. 3 (July 1996): 373–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0019556119960316.
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Soria-Lara, Julio A., and David Banister. "Collaborative backcasting for transport policy scenario building." Futures 95 (January 2018): 11–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.09.003.
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Drouet, Laurent, and Johannes Emmerling. "Climate policy under socio-economic scenario uncertainty." Environmental Modelling & Software 79 (May 2016): 334–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.02.010.
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Saritas, Ozcan, Yury Dranev, and Alexander Chulok. "A dynamic and adaptive scenario approach for formulating science & technology policy." foresight 19, no. 5 (September 11, 2017): 473–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-11-2016-0054.
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Purpose Dynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. The purpose of this paper is to provide a dynamic and adaptive Foresight approach as required by the fast-changing global landscape. Design/methodology/approach The scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on science and technology (S&T) development in Russia. Findings The flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility. Practical implications The scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for Foresight exercises at all levels of governance, including national, international, regional and corporate. Originality/value A novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of S&T policy with an illustrative case study.
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Martins, Marco, Ricardo Jorge da Costa Guerra, and Lara Santos. "Tourism developmente policy and the use of scenario analisis: a synthesis model." PASOS. Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural 20, no. 5 (2022): 1103–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.25145/j.pasos.2022.20.074.
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"COVID‑19’s pandemic made us learn to live with a renewed sense of limits and a new level of uncertainty. One of the governance responses that emerged from this panorama was the shift to scenario analysis, which generates narratives about multiple future possibilities. This paper attempts to answer the question of why and how to use scenario analysis when defining tourism development policy. In this study, a semi‑systematic investigation is conducted to broaden the scope of discussion and explore new paths associated with the topic of tourism development policy. It is believed that the use of scenarios in tourism development policy can prove to be a valuable experimental technique for developing innovative ideas. With that end, this paper proposes a scenario development process model for policy and decision makers. As in any exploratory study, there are limitations, including the difficulty to generalising certain assumptions."
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Sugiyono, Agus, Joko Santosa, Adiarso, and Edi Hilmawan. "Pemodelan Dampak COVID-19 Terhadap Kebutuhan Energi di Indonesia." Jurnal Sistem Cerdas 3, no. 2 (August 31, 2020): 65–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.37396/jsc.v3i2.65.
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In order to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, the government issued a large-scale social restriction policy (PSBB). The policy in the form of restrictions on social activities will limit economic activity which ultimately has an impact on decreasing energy demand. This PSBB policy is challenge in implementing a national energy management plan, and might causes some of the energy planning targets not to be achieved. To analyze the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on national energy demand, an energy model was created using LEAP software. LEAP is a model for comprehensive energy planning from energy resources to energy use based on an accounting system. For the purposes of analysis, LEAP requires quite detailed data, in the form of socioeconomic data, energy data, and community activity data due to social restrictions. In this paper, the results of energy modeling simulation are discussed in terms of energy demand based on the scenario of no pandemic or bussiness as usual (BAU) and three pandemic scenarios, namely: optimistic (OPT), moderate (MOD), and pessimistic (PES) scenarios. Energy demand in 2020 is predicted to decrease by 10.7% (OPT scenario), 15.3% (MOD scenario), and 20.0% (PES scenario) compared to the BAU scenario. The model can still be further developed to analyze the impact, both on the overall of demand side and energy supply side and also environmental aspects.
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Liu, Guiying, and Hualin Xie. "Simulation of Regulation Policies for Fertilizer and Pesticide Reduction in Arable Land Based on Farmers’ Behavior—Using Jiangxi Province as an Example." Sustainability 11, no. 1 (December 27, 2018): 136. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11010136.
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A multi-agent model for the simulation of arable land management based on the complex adaptive system theory and a Swarm platform was constructed. An empirical application of the model was carried out to investigate the pollution of arable land in Jiangxi Province. Two sets of policies—a fertilizer tax and an ecological compensation scheme—were designed and simulated, and the analysis focused on the control of polluting inputs, mainly chemical fertilizers and pesticides. The environmental effects of each policy were evaluated by simulating farmers’ self-adaptive behaviours in response to the policy in the artificial village of the model. The results showed the following: (1) Both the fertilizer tax policy and the ecological compensation policy somewhat alleviated the negative impact of input factors, such as fertilizers and pesticides, on arable land; (2) if the fertilizer tax policy is implemented, the medium tax rate scheme should be given priority—the effect does not necessarily improve as the tax rate increases, and a high-tax policy will threaten food security in the long term; and (3) if an ecological compensation policy is implemented, high-government-compensation scenarios are better than low-government-compensation scenarios, and the differential-government-compensation scenario is better than the equal-government-compensation scenario, and the differential-government-compensation scenario can lighten the burden on the government.
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Avksentiev, N. A., A. S. Makarov, Yu V. Makarova, E. M. Pazukhina, N. N. Sisigina, O. A. Feoktistova, E. E. Zaytseva, S. D. Kuznetsov, A. Paice, and K. I. Saytkulov. "Impact of National HIV Policy and Funding on Social and Demographic Indicators in Russia." Financial Journal 14, no. 4 (August 2022): 46–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2022-4-46-63.
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A number of governmental anti-HIV strategic programs are being implemented today in Russia; however, as of 2020, only 74.5% of the infected were aware of their status and only 67.4% of them were receiving the therapy. Under such conditions, it seems reasonable to assess future social and economic consequences depending on various scenarios of centralized financing of anti-HIV activities in the future. With the use of mathematic modelling, an economic analysis was performed for the “no change” scenario of maintaining costs for HIV control at the level of 2020, and a prognosis was made for 4 possible scenarios of national policy changes in relation to federal expenditures: a 25% and 50% increase in expenditures from the level of 2020, a “maximum extensive scenario” (which assumes reaching the upper limit of expenditures with approximately 60% growth while maintaining the current structure of costs), and an “intensive” scenario with an increase in nominal expenditures and shifting costs to purchasing newer third-generation antiretroviral therapy regimens. According to the modelling results, the current financial strategy (the “no change” scenario) in nominal terms will result in HIV mortality growth up to 25 thousand cases annually, the economic burden over the period of 2020–2030 will exceed RUB 4 bln and will not let achieving the national target of “90-90-90” by 2024. Under this scenario, Russia would remain the leader in HIV prevalence among the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The “no change” scenario would result in indirect economic losses of RUB 3,481.06 bln per year, with epidemiological parameters still high. The most efficient scenario turned out to be the “maximum extensive scenario” that suggests an increase in federal budget expenditures on combating HIV infection by approximately RUB 20 bln annually. This course of events would allow reducing HIV mortality to 5.4 cases per 100 thsd population by 2030, which is comparable to the current HIV mortality in Spain, Italy and Switzerland, and reducing HIV mortality by 111,9 thsd cases to a level comparable to that of the USA, Chile and New Zealand in 2019. The economic benefit from the implementation of this scenario in 2020–2030 would amount to RUB 1,663.02 bln due to decreased direct non-medical and indirect costs in the form of GDP growth and reduced payments of pensions and disability benefits.
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BEGUM, MOSS ANJUMAN ARA, BASIL MANOS, and IOANNIS MANIKAS. "IMPLEMENTATION OF FERTILIZER POLICY IN BANGLADESH UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: AN APPLICATION OF MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS MODELING." Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research 24, no. 06 (December 2007): 765–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217595907001528.
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The analysis of the effects of fertilizer pricing on fertilizer-intensive agriculture and farms behavior ought to be an important topic of research for agricultural and environmental economists in Bangladesh. Several possibilities for fertilizer policy have been debated, in particular for the pricing of fertilizer. Following this observation, this study contributes to that discussion by simulating the impact that various policies based upon the price of fertilizer could have on agricultural production. Specifically, the study analyzes the economic, social and environmental implications of alternative fertilizer policies using a multicriteria model of farmers' behavior under different scenarios. The future agricultural and fertilizer scenarios are described in terms of the combination of policy instruments, policy style and configuration of actors. For the purpose of scenario analysis, narratives and quantitative indicator values have been compiled for each scenario. The quantitative estimates are used as input values in the modeling of fertilizing systems under policy changes. The results show that the increase of fertilizer price causes almost similar impacts as observed in the status quo scenario. The results also stress that fertilizer pricing, as a single instrument for controlling fertilizer use is not a satisfactory tool for significantly reducing fertilizer consumption in agriculture.
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Wang, Ying, Peipei Shang, Lichun He, Yingchun Zhang, and Dandan Liu. "Can China Achieve the 2020 and 2030 Carbon Intensity Targets through Energy Structure Adjustment?" Energies 11, no. 10 (October 11, 2018): 2721. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en11102721.
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To mitigate global warming, the Chinese government has successively set carbon intensity targets for 2020 and 2030. Energy restructuring is critical for achieving these targets. In this paper, a combined forecasting model is utilized to predict primary energy consumption in China. Subsequently, the Markov model and non-linear programming model are used to forecast China’s energy structure in 2020 and 2030 in three scenarios. Carbon intensities were forecasted by combining primary energy consumption, energy structure and economic forecasting. Finally, this paper analyzes the contribution potential of energy structure optimization in each scenario. Our main research conclusions are that in 2020, the optimal energy structure will enable China to achieve its carbon intensity target under the conditions of the unconstrained scenario, policy-constrained scenario and minimum external costs of carbon emissions scenario. Under the three scenarios, the carbon intensity will decrease by 42.39%, 43.74%, and 42.67%, respectively, relative to 2005 levels. However, in 2030, energy structure optimization cannot fully achieve China’s carbon intensity target under any of the three scenarios. It is necessary to undertake other types of energy-saving emission reduction measures. Thus, our paper concludes with some policy suggestions to further mitigate China’s carbon intensities.
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Basovníková, Marcela. "Performance of Agricultural Enterprises With Specialization Livestock Production After Year 2013 in the Context of CAP Development Scenarios." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 62, no. 6 (2014): 1251–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201462061251.
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Joining the EU, among others meant that Czech Republic has gained opportunity to draw financial funds of the EU. In the context of profitability and overall economic performance of agricultural enterprises, the most serious threat is currently reduction or even elimination of agricultural subsidies as came out from discussions about future development of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) already in 2011. In 2011, the CAP was a point of interest especially because of approaching the end of programme period of 2007–2013. During the last decade, the CAP has been reformed substantially while these reforms and changes reflect requirements of society connected to environment, to food quality and safety, and to developing needs of the EU´s economy. Based on these discussions across all the EU countries, three principal scenarios have been formulated in order to solve the main political objectives of future CAP. In each scenario, different stress is put on single objectives of the CAP. These three scenarios are the adjustment scenario, the integration scenario and the re-focus scenario. Changes of CAP, which were covered by single scenarios have been focused on market interventions, direct payment and on policy of rural areas development.
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Kusdiantoro, Kusdiantoro, Achmad Fahrudin, Sugeng Hari Wisudo, and Bambang Juanda. "The Policy Strategy for Sustainable Capture Fisheries Development." Economic and Social of Fisheries and Marine Journal 007, no. 02 (April 26, 2020): 131–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.21776/ub.ecsofim.2020.007.02.01.
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The sustainability of capture fisheries development in Indonesia faces various challenges, such as climate change, pollution, resource degradation, and pressure from fluctuating commodity prices. Furthermore, a policy breakthrough with proper strategy is needed in realizing sustainable capture fisheries development. This study aims to formulate the most appropriate policy from several existed alternative policies to achieve sustainable capture fisheries development. Primary and secondary data are used in this study. A prospective analysis (SMIC-Prob-Expert) approach is used to formulate priority policy scenarios for capture fisheries development in Indonesia. As results, the analysis brings about six main priority alternative policies, namely: (1) increasing utilization of fisheries resources (SDI), (2) increasing capture fisheries productivity, (3) increasing fishermen household income, (4) providing fisheries insurance/social security, (5) improving status utilization of SDI, and (6) increase in the value of capture fisheries non-tax state revenue (PNBP). The analysis shows that policy scenario 01 (111111) or by implementing all alternatives policy simultaneously is the best choice. If the policymakers are faced with options, then the policy scenario becomes the last option to be taken simultaneously is not to choose a policy of providing insurance/social security to fishermen; or in the in this case policy scenario 05 (111011).
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REGINA, K., H. LEHTONEN, and J. NOUSIAINEN. "Modelled impacts of mitigation measures on greenhouse gas emissions from Finnish agriculture up to 2020." Agricultural and Food Science 18, no. 3-4 (January 3, 2009): 477–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.23986/afsci.5968.
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Emission scenarios based on integrated quantitative modelling are a valuable tool in planning strategies for greenhouse gas mitigation. By estimating the potential of individual mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, resources can be targeted to the most promising policy measures. This paper reports two agricultural emission scenarios for Finland up to year 2020, one baseline scenario (Scenario 1) based on the projected agricultural production levels determined by markets and agricultural policy and one with selected mitigation measures included (Scenario 2). Measures selected for the analysis consisted of 1) keeping agricultural area at the current level, 2) decreasing the proportion of organic soils, 3) increasing the proportion of grass cultivation on organic soils and 4) supporting biogas production on farms. Starting from 2005, the emissions of nitrous oxide and methane from agriculture would decrease 2.3% in Scenario 1 by 2020 whereas the respective decrease would be 11.5% in Scenario 2. According to the results, mitigation measures targeted to cultivation of organic soils have the largest potential to reduce the emissions. Such measures would include reducing the area of cultivated organic soils and increasing the proportion of perennial crops on the remaining area.
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Zhang, Yubo, and Xue Bai. "Scenario Analysis of Water-Saving Potential in Yeast Manufacturing Industry under the Guidance of Water Intake Quota." Journal of Sensors 2022 (April 23, 2022): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/8775071.
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While yeast manufacturing consumes a large amount of water per unit of product, water use efficiency varies widely within the industry due to disparity in water-saving technologies. By stipulating water intake per unit of product, the Norm of Water Intake––Part 41: Yeast Production (GB/T 18916.41-2019) will standardize production water use and improve the water-saving level of the yeast manufacturing industry. This paper estimates the industry’s production capacity from 2020 to 2024 through regression analysis. It examines the distribution of water use efficiency under different policy scenarios based on the standard for water intake, including the business-as-usual scenario, the bottom-line scenario, the ideal scenario, and the expected scenario. Then, the water use of the yeast manufacturing industry under different scenarios is calculated, and the water-saving potential is analyzed by comparing it with the business-as-usual scenario. The results indicate that depending on the intensity of policy implementation, the average annual water savings will range from 2.5 × 106 m 3 to 14 × 106 m 3 . The cumulative water savings will add up to 16 × 106 m 3 to 51 × 106 m 3 in the next five years, which is very large.
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Hu, Z. Y., Li Yang Xie, and Xiao Jin Zhang. "The Optimal Combination Research of System Configuration and T&M Policy of Standby Safety System." Advanced Materials Research 544 (June 2012): 6–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.544.6.
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The unavailability equations of several aging scenarios of standby safety component are derived and the risk of standby safety system is quantified. The different maintenance strategies are adopted for no aging scenario and several aging scenarios respectively. The two kind of test and maintenance (T&M) policies are adopted for no aging scenario and several aging scenarios. A numerical example is introduced for the illustration. The system unavailabilities under different configurations of parallel safety system and T&M policies are computed and compared. It can be derived that the combination of different T&M policies and configurations is significant effect on the risk of standby safety system and optimal STI and T&M interval.
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AFANASYEVA, Oksana N. "Money supply as an instrument of monetary policy and the promotion of economic growth." Finance and Credit 27, no. 7 (July 29, 2021): 1540–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/fc.27.7.1540.
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Subject. The article analyzes the influence of the money supply as an instrument of monetary policy impact on stimulating the economic growth, namely, the impact of instrumental indicators on the target economic indicator of GDP. Objectives. The paper makes an attempt to contribute to the discussion on the role of money supply as an instrument of monetary policy in achieving the economic growth. Methods. The study uses a new mathematical tool that takes into account the direct control effect of the instrument of monetary policy on the achievement of the target economic indicator. Results. I suggest three management scenarios in the impact of money supply on GDP: a change in the money supply with violations of the response to management in certain periods that determined the growth of GDP; the lack of response to control action; and a transition scenario, when a short-term positive impact is recorded from time to time, which, in fact, is close to the second scenario. Conclusions. The first scenario includes Russia, the United States and Brazil, in which the instrument of monetary policy (the money supply) determined the growth of GDP with individual periods of disruption of management; the second scenario includes Germany, Denmark, and Japan, with no response to the management impact; the third scenario is observed in China, Norway, and India. This conclusion enables to identify the specifics of the impact of the set of monetary policy instruments on economic growth, considering the J. Tinbergen’s theory of economic policy.
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Khisty, C. J., and P. S. Sriraj. "Use of Scenario-Building Transportation Model for Developing Countries." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1563, no. 1 (January 1996): 16–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198196156300103.
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Scenario building is a technique used to evaluate a set of alternatives and give policy makers a quick tool for identifying which are politically viable. The transportation system hierarchy prevailing in a large metropolitan area in a developing country is examined using a scenario-building model. The model is bidimensional with two parameters: distance traveled and the value of time of persons using the transportation system. It is applied to metropolitan Madras (population 6 million) in India. Two scenarios are developed: first, using the perceived costs of various modes available in Madras, and second, using costs reflecting the changes that could arise as a result of policy changes. Results suggest that policy needs to be oriented toward promoting the use of non-motorized modes, motorized two-wheelers, and public transit instead of emulating that of developed countries. This model and its results will be useful to decision makers in examining scenarios of their choice.
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Song, Xiaowei, Yongpei Hao, and Xiaodong Zhu. "Air Pollutant Emissions from Vehicles and Their Abatement Scenarios: A Case Study of Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration, China." Sustainability 11, no. 22 (November 18, 2019): 6503. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11226503.
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Vehicular emissions have become one of the important sources of air pollution, and their effective control is essential to protect the environment. The Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration (CCUA), a less developed area located in the southwest of China with higher vehicle population and special topographic features, was selected as the research area. The aims of this study were to establish multi-year vehicular emission inventories for ten important air pollutants in this area and to analyze emission control policy scenarios based on the inventories. The results showed that the ten vehicular pollutant emissions had differences during the past decade, and CO2 and NH3 increased markedly between 1999 and 2015. Chengdu and Chongqing were the dominant contributors of vehicular emissions in the CCUA. Eight scenarios based on these inventories were designed and the alternative energy replacement scenario was studied from the life-cycle perspective. Compared with the business as usual scenario, elimination of substandard vehicles scenario is the most effective policy to control NOx, PM2.5, PM10, and CH4 emissions; the radical alternative energy replacement scenario could decrease the vehicular NMVOC, CO2, N2O, and NH3 emissions; the elimination of motorcycles scenario could decrease the vehicular CO emissions; and the raising fuel standards scenario could reduce vehicular SO2 emissions significantly (by 94.81%). The radical integrated scenario (combining all of the reduction control measures mentioned above) would achieve the maximum emission reduction of vehicular pollutants CO, NMVOC, NOx, PM2.5, PM10, CO2, N2O, and NH3 compared with any scenario alone.