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1
Smith, Barry, Julie Martine, and Graeme D. Hubbert. "ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES FOR A PERMIT-WIDE DRILLING PROGRAM IN A SENSITIVE MARINE ENVIRONMENT." APPEA Journal 34, no. 1 (1994): 750. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/aj93055.
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An integrated program of environmental studies was undertaken in support of an application to conduct permit-wide exploratory drilling in a shallow, sensitive marine environment. The program comprised permit and well site specific work which was carried out in parallel with a corporate due diligence program established by the permit Operator.Scientific studies undertaken for permit area EP 341 off the north west coast of Western Australia comprised underwater surveys, aerial video reconnaissance, surface current tracking surveys and oil spill trajectory modelling to characterise the local environment and identify sensitive resources at risk of impact from oil spills. Survey data were used to prepare an environmental impact assessment report and an oil spill contingency plan, which provide a set of site-specific environmental management guidelines for use by field and office personnel involved with the drilling program. A 3D oil spill trajectory model successfully predicted current flows in the complex hydrodynamic environment of the permit areas, demonstrating its usefulness as a real time tool for oil spill response planning.
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Polomka, S. M., J. Bruins, G. A. Spanninga, and I. P. Mennie. "WA-27I-P, EXMOUTH SUB-BASIN—INTEGRATED PROSPECTIVITY EVALUATION." APPEA Journal 39, no. 1 (1999): 115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/aj98008.
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Permit WA-271-P in the southern Exmouth Sub-basin was initially gazetted as W96–20 in the 1996 gazettal round.It was recognised at an early stage that fluids found in Novara-1 (14° API oil), Pyrenees-1 and Macedon-1 (19° API oil and gas) made economic viability of traditional Barrow Group prospects in WA-271-P problematic and dependant upon the accurate prediction of reservoir development and fluid type.After award, Woodside embarked upon an intensive data acquisition program that included 800 km2 3D, 1,600 km 2D seismic, and 34,000 line km of aeromagnetic data. The integration of this data was completed in the latter part of 1998. The evaluation of the exploration 3D survey in the north eastern portion of the permit included volume interpretation and 3D visualisation, the results of which were integrated with an aeromagnetic and gravity study of the permit. The resultant interpretation clearly defined fault patterns and confidently identified and distinguished seismic anomalies caused by fluid effects from those generated by igneous bodies. This interpretation was supported by the application of quantitative interpretation techniques to Near, Full, Far stacks and DMO gathers with the knowledge then extrapolated to the regional 2D seismic grid beyond the 3D survey area.Environmental risk awareness and contingency planning formed an integral part of the early work within the permit. A metocean survey and spill modelling study were conducted leading to the production of a Resource Atlas. The results of the environmental studies were incorporated into the timing of exploration activities to minimise any potential impact on the environment.In summary, a focussed and multidisciplinary approach to the evaluation of the prospectivity of the permit was achieved through an integrated work flow. This has resulted in an attractive portfolio of prospects and leads from a number of play fairways, improved risk assessment, and the development of new plays within the permit, including both the traditional Barrow Group plays, and Jurassic and Triassic deep water plays. This approach has added considerable value to the permit by introducing new technologies and successfully managing risk with old play types.The first prospect drilled in the permit in December 1998, Vincent–1, was an oil and gas discovery.
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Whitman, Robert V. "Toward a Strategic Plan for the National Earthquake Risk Reduction Program." Earthquake Spectra 11, no. 2 (May 1995): 299–317. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.1585816.
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Every day actions are taken that reduce the risks associated with earthquakes. This national, amorphous but action-oriented effort is NERRP (different from nehrp—the federally-funded information-gathering-and-disseminating effort). There is today no well articulated list of goals for NERRP, let alone a well understood plan for achieving such goals—although there are some de facto goals and plans. Such goals and plans are needed—to enlist support for earthquake risk reduction, and to permit effective planning for the nehrp effort. A set of national goals, together with a strategic plan to achieve these goals, are presented—as a “strawman.” The aim is to stimulate discussion and launch action toward achieving consensus on goals and a plan for NERRP.
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Morelli, Martin, and Michael A. Lacasse. "A systematic methodology for design of retrofit actions with longevity." Journal of Building Physics 42, no. 4 (June 11, 2018): 585–604. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1744259118780133.
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This article presents a method for the design of retrofit actions with focus on energy savings that permits a systematic and thorough assessment of potential failures, anticipated maintenance and the expected durability of the retrofit actions. The proposed method combines the use of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to permit identifying likely failure modes from which maintenance actions could be planned and the limit states (LS) method to assess the durability of the given retrofit action. One case study was completed to illustrate the application of: (1) the FMEA and LS method and (2) the proposed method for a retrofit action of an internal insulated solid wall of masonry bonded with lightweight aggregate concrete and floor division of concrete. It was evident that FMEA is useful regarding failure-mode identification and maintenance planning, and the LS method has its strength in durability assessment. Combining the use of both the FMEA and LS methods allowed improved design of new energy-saving retrofit actions, given that a thorough risk assessment was possible that included a decision-making process on maintenance planning, durability assessment and decision on potential redesign of retrofit actions.
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Rybka, I., and E. Bondar-Nowakowska. "Risk of Alterations to Project Documentation on an Example of Environmental Engineering Construction." Archives of Civil Engineering 59, no. 4 (December 1, 2013): 499–508. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ace-2013-0027.
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Abstract Investor bears responsibility for proper preparation of the investment process. One of his tasks is to prepare the project documentation and obtaina building permit. Frequently, during his work, there are situations and events whose im pact interferes with the design solutions. Regardless of reasons, alterations to a project constitute a source of cost risk. In each case, the Investor should be prepared for this type of a risk. Exposure to risk should be taken into account in the planning stage of the investment. Also, a model of investment execution should be chosen at this stage. The type of model is associated with the distribution of risk throughout the project. The aim of this paper is to identify events that generate risk related to alterations to Project Documentation in the context of the selection of the investment executionmodel.
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A. Bogatenkov, S., V. A. Belevitin, and M. L. Khasanova. "Risk Management Based on Model of Competences when Introducing Innovative Information Technology." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 4.38 (December 3, 2018): 78. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.38.24324.
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Economic expediency and attractiveness of life quality improving are accompanied by risks of increasing instability and possible collapse of the world system. Forecasts of the labour market change connected with automation of working places and mass unemployment cause concerns. The task of risk management in the personnel training system for introduction of new information technology is considered. The purpose of the research is development of the methodology based on the models of competences including requirements for safe application of information-measuring systems, as well as for an education level, work experience and permit-to-work documents in new conditions. A complex of new mathematical models, methods and technologies providing safety of the process of information technology introduction owing to the systemic approach to risk minimization is taken as a basis of the methodology. Invariant models provide economic effectiveness of processes of designing the system of safety and planning of educational paths. Models of personal paths of development and classes of competences provide didactic safety. Decision-making methods provide information, psychological, social and economic safety of the process of information technology introduction. The methodology is realised when introducing distance learning technologies in educational organisations of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region.
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Millett, Alec. "Commercial shipping and offshore exploration—safety by design: a case for holistic marine spatial planning." APPEA Journal 54, no. 2 (2014): 557. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/aj13130.
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In its navigation safety and environment protection role, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) is compulsorily consulted by offshore exploration proponents during the preparation of their environmental plans (EPs). AMSA is an interested party regarding the safe navigation of commercial shipping conducting coastal and international trade in all areas, including those where proposed geotechnical, geophysical, or production activities may take place. Acreage releases often overlap busy shipping lanes and, in some cases, International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted measures that support the safety of shipping and protection of the marine environment. Ships transiting these areas carry cargos of considerable volume and net worth and often substances that are hazardous or dangerous. AMSA, during the proponents’ EP consultation phase, provides advice and assesses navigational and infrastructure risk based on locations of proposed offshore activities and commercial shipping activity. It is apparent that during approval processes, risks related to commercial shipping may not always be fully considered. This can lead to the need for careful expectation management to limit risk exposure. Below are examples where permit areas are shown along with commercial shipping traffic patterns. Commercial shipping and exploration activity can coexist through careful and early communication and adept planning. Maturing marine spatial planning (MSP) processes may provide opportunities to ensure timely and relevant information is shared while adhering to regulatory requirements. This extended abstract and its poster presentation highlight the ability to share spatial information, including commercial vessel traffic information, over a common water space to realise safety and efficiency gains for all concerned.
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Rios, Livia Teresa Moreira, Edward Araujo Júnior, Luciano Marcondes Machado Nardozza, Antonio Fernandes Moron, and Marília da Glória Martins. "Prenatal Diagnosis and Postnatal Findings of Bronchogenic Cyst." Case Reports in Pulmonology 2013 (2013): 1–3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/483864.
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Bronchogenic cysts arise from abnormal buds from the primitive esophagus and tracheobronchial tree, which do not extend to the site where alveolar differentiation occurs. Bronchogenic cysts are typically unilocular mucus field lesions arising from posterior membranous wall of the air way. The prenatal diagnosis usually is realized by two-dimensional ultrasound showing the large unilocular cystic image in the chest fetus. The prenatal percutaneous aspiration can reduce the risk of heart compression and permit better respiratory conditions to newborn. We present a case of a primiparous pregnant 23 year-old-woman prenatal ultrasound showed a large unilocular cyst in the left hemithorax with compression of the normal left lung tissue and contralateral mediastinal shift. This cyst was percutaneously aspirated without subsequent reaccumulation of fluid. The newborn did not have respiratory distress and the computed tomography scan confirmed the finding of a fluid-filled cyst in the left chest. The chest X-ray showed the displacement of the heart and the mediastinum from the left to the right. The prenatal diagnosis of bronchogenic cyst is very important to assess the degree of the compression of the normal lung and the mediastinum shift. Furthermore, the prenatal diagnosis permits planning delivery in the tertiary hospital with multidisciplinary team because of the risk of respiratory distress.
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Karki, Tej Kumar. "What did the 2015 earthquake tell us about what the state of earthquake resilience in Kathmandu metropolitan city was?" International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment 10, no. 2/3 (September 6, 2019): 188–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijdrbe-12-2018-0052.
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Purpose This paper asks what was the state of building-code enforcement and citizen – government collaboration in disaster preparedness when an earthquake hit Kathmandu metropolitan city (KMC) in 2015? It reviewed government documents, analyzed media reports, interviewed building-code monitoring officers and carried out a detailed case study of the earthquake-damaged Park View Horizon Housing Apartment (PVHA) Complex. The research found several earthquake-resilience issues. They were enforcement-vulnerability (Building bylaws, planning permit and building code); institutional-coordination vulnerability; Apartment-regulation vulnerability; technological vulnerability; and citizen-government-collaboration vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach The study area of this research is KMC, and this research is based on content analysis, field observation and interview. It has reviewed all the newspapers and media reports that had covered earthquake issues during and after the 2015 disaster, as well as the articles published in Nepal, South Asia, the USA, New Zealand and Haiti. The literature on Nepal’s building code, seismic history and institutional arrangements for governing earthquake-related issues were reviewed. After field observation of some of the damaged apartments, a detailed case study of PVHA Complex was carried out. Findings The research found several earthquake-resilience issues. They were enforcement-vulnerability (Building bylaws, planning permit and building code); institutional-coordination vulnerability; Apartment-regulation vulnerability; technological vulnerability; and citizen-government-collaboration vulnerability Research limitations/implications A limitation of this study was its heavy reliance on content analysis, one case study and a few interviews and discussions with affected residents, local governments and developers. Practical implications This study would help enhance disaster governance in developing nations. Social implications The citizen–government collaborative approach to earthquake resilience would enhance human resilience to disaster at individual and community levels. Originality/value Since this is the first research carried out on the state of building code and institutional resilience at the time of the 2015 earthquake in Nepal, it is original and provides policy insights for earthquake resilience in Nepal.
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Macdonald, Roderick A. "Jurisdiction, Illegality and Fault: An Unholy Trinity." Revue générale de droit 16, no. 1 (May 2, 2019): 69–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/1059311ar.
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The relationship between fault and ultra vires is one of the most difficult aspects of the law of Crown Liability. It sets clearly into relief the policy conflicts which arise when private law risk allocation regimes (the adversarial adjudicative imposition of liability rules grounded in a concept of corrective justice) are invoked to police the functioning of public law risk allocation regimes (the allocation through various non-adjudicative procedures of the benefit and burden according to a variety of conceptions of distributive justice). The Crown Liability Act and article 94 of the Code of Civil Procedure both incorporate as against the Crown rules of private law delictual behaviour which were originally developed for regulating activity between private parties as such. They, therefore, compel courts to determine whether jurisdictional error per se constitutes fault. The history of twentieth century attempts to reconcile ultra vires and fault is a history of the judicial search for boundary criteria between realms of public and private law. These boundaries have been, among others, a good faith test, functional criteria such as judicial and legislative immunity or immunity for planning functions, the notion of breach of statutory duty, and so on. Each of these attempts has ultimately be repulsed by the desire of litigants to recover against the Crown on the widest possible basis. Modern theories of jurisdiction being so all-embracing and modern conceptions of fault being so comprehensive, the courts are constantly being asked to develop an absolute equation between fault and ultra vires. The paper concludes by exploring several options for harmonizing private law and public law risk allocation regimes. It recommends a restructuring of the Crown Liability Act so as (i) to permit recovery on a variety of no fault bases, (ii) to permit recovery even when intra vires acts have been undertaken (if these cause significant or disproportional damage) and (iii) to permit the immunization of certain governmental functions from private law liability even when the decisions in question have been taken in an ultra vires fashion.
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EFROYMSON, REBECCA A. "REGULATING RISK: OVERSIGHT OF MICROBIAL PRODUCTS OF BIOTECHNOLOGY UNDER THE U.S. TOXIC SUBSTANCES CONTROL ACT." Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management 01, no. 03 (September 1999): 329–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1464333299000259.
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The Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) is the legislation used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to regulate releases of genetically engineered microorganisms. The rule defining the scope of the notification requirements for releases of microbial products of biotechnology was published in April 1997. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) had some latitude regarding the extent to which various categories of microorganisms would be regulated, but the agency was constrained by requirements of TSCA and an interagency agreement about how to regulate products of biotechnology. This paper investigates the extent to which the scope of oversight is based on risk. A risk-based rule is defined as one where the reporting requirements are based on potential for exposure or expected adverse effects. The evolution of the rule is described, and risk-based components are discussed. In conclusion, the scope of oversight of microbial releases is determined to be based on risk to the extent that legislation and institutional constraints permit.
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Sangamithra, A. "The Causes of Cancer: An Analysis of Avoidable Risk Factors." Shanlax International Journal of Economics 9, no. 2 (March 1, 2021): 37–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.34293/economics.v9i2.3727.
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Recently many new causes of cancer have been recognized, such as Sunlight, tobacco, pharmaceuticals, hormones, alcohol, parasites, fungi, bacteria, salted fish, wood dust, and certain herbs. However, they are additional causes of cancer that contains beta carotene, red meat, processed meats, low intake of fiber diets, poor Exclusive Breast Feeding (EBF), obesity, increased adult height, sedentary lifestyles, etc.; there is a knowledge imbalance in knowing the causes of cancer among the physicians as well as researchers. To prevent at and permit the early detection and effective treatment is necessary in this regard. Steps were taken to prevent, control and management of cancer are disturbed by the insufficient knowledge about the disease among the population. The ultimate aim of cancer management is to reduce the prevalence of cancer and to improve the quality of life. A practical way to identify cancer control risk is to understand the real risk factors for causing cancer. When the causes are not well explained and understood, it is difficult to treat the disease. Screening of asymptomatic populations and awareness of early signs and symptoms can certainly improve the treatment of cancer. Knowing the causes of cancer and knowledge about preventing it can cure the disease, prolong our life, and improve the quality of our life. Cancer research is crucial for effective planning and strategic Cancer Control Programmes (CCP).
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Spinner, Michael A., Ranjana H. Advani, Joseph M. Connors, Jacques Azzi, and Catherine Diefenbach. "New Treatment Algorithms in Hodgkin Lymphoma: Too Much or Too Little?" American Society of Clinical Oncology Educational Book, no. 38 (May 2018): 626–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/edbk_200679.
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Hodgkin lymphoma treatment continues to evolve as new means of assessing response to treatment, new appreciation of important risk factors, and more effective therapeutic agents become available. Treatment algorithms integrating functional imaging now provide the opportunity to modify therapy during its delivery, allowing adjustment of duration and intensity of chemotherapy and rationale identification of patients who may benefit from the addition of therapeutic irradiation. Novel agents, including the antibody drug conjugate brentuximab vedotin and checkpoint inhibitors such as nivolumab and pembrolizumab can improve the effectiveness of treatment while keeping toxicity within acceptable limits. Carefully designed clinical trials permit the identification of superior approaches in which efficacy is enhanced and toxicity minimized. Clinicians treating patients with Hodgkin lymphoma now have access to novel treatment approaches, which will require detailed assessment of each patient and careful discussion of the goals and risks of treatment at the time of planning primary treatment, again during delivery of that treatment as data indicating ongoing effectiveness become available, at the conclusion of initial intervention, and, when the need arises, at the time of recurrence of disease.
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Pinelli, Jean-Paul, Maria Esteva, Ellen M. Rathje, David Roueche, Scott J. Brandenberg, Gilberto Mosqueda, Jamie Padgett, and Frederick Haan. "Disaster Risk Management Through the DesignSafe Cyberinfrastructure." International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 11, no. 6 (November 26, 2020): 719–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13753-020-00320-8.
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AbstractDesignSafe addresses the challenges of supporting integrative data-driven research in natural hazards engineering. It is an end-to-end data management, communications, and analysis platform where users collect, generate, analyze, curate, and publish large data sets from a variety of sources, including experiments, simulations, field research, and post-disaster reconnaissance. DesignSafe achieves key objectives through: (1) integration with high performance and cloud-computing resources to support the computational needs of the regional risk assessment community; (2) the possibility to curate and publish diverse data structures emphasizing relationships and understandability; and (3) facilitation of real time communications during natural hazards events and disasters for data and information sharing. The resultant services and tools shorten data cycles for resiliency evaluation, risk modeling validation, and forensic studies. This article illustrates salient features of the cyberinfrastructure. It summarizes its design principles, architecture, and functionalities. The focus is on case studies to show the impact of DesignSafe on the disaster risk community. The Next Generation Liquefaction project collects and standardizes case histories of earthquake-induced soil liquefaction into a relational database—DesignSafe—to permit users to interact with the data. Researchers can correlate in DesignSafe building dynamic characteristics based on data from building sensors, with observed damage based on ground motion measurements. Reconnaissance groups upload, curate, and publish wind, seismic, and coastal damage data they gather during field reconnaissance missions, so these datasets are available shortly after a disaster. As a part of the education and community outreach efforts of DesignSafe, training materials and collaboration space are also offered to the disaster risk management community.
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El Hannoun, Wafaa, Salah-Eddine El Adlouni, and Abdelhak Zoglat. "Vine-Copula-Based Quantile Regression for Cascade Reservoirs Management." Water 13, no. 7 (March 31, 2021): 964. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13070964.
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This paper features an application of Regular Vine (R-vine) copulas, a recently developed statistical tool to assess composite risk. Copula-based dependence modelling is a popular tool in conditional risk assessment, but is usually applied to pairs of variables. By contrast, Vine copulas provide greater flexibility and permit the modelling of complex dependency patterns using a wide variety of bivariate copulas which may be arranged and analysed in a tree structure to explore multiple dependencies. This study emphasises the use of R-vine copulas in an analysis of the co-dependencies of five reservoirs in the cascade of the Saint-John River basin in Eastern Canada. The developed R-vine copulas lead to the joint and conditional return periods of maximum volumes, for hydrologic design and cascade reservoir management in the basin. The main attraction of this approach to risk modelling is the flexibility in the choice of distributions used to model heavy-tailed marginals and co-dependencies.
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Mikhailenko, A. V., and D. A. Ruban. "Agroeconomic Evaluation of Soil Pollution by Heavy Metals for Improvement of Regional Governance." Vestnik NSUEM, no. 2 (July 6, 2020): 54–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.34020/2073-6495-2020-2-054-070.
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Implication of scientific approach increases efficiency of regional governance. A method of agroeconomic evaluation of soil pollution by heavy metals is proposed and tested by example of the Rostov region – an important agrarian region of the Russian South. Conceptually, this method is linked to the ideas of risk and ecosystem services, and its result is cost equivalent of pollution taking into account actual content of heavy metals in soil. It is established that among four considered metals (nickel, copper, zinc, and lead), the cost equivalent is the biggest in the case of nickel, its sum for the region’s districts is 62,5 bln RUR. The results can be used to orient regional programs, strategies, and initiatives linked to agricultural and ecological activities, planning and establishing volumes of financial support of the latter. Moreover, these results permit to reveal complexity of soil resources governance within the study region.
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Alberstone, Cary D., Stephen L. Skirboll, Edward C. Benzel, John A. Sanders, Blaine L. Hart, Nevan G. Baldwin, Charles L. Tessman, John T. Davis, and Roland R. Lee. "Magnetic source imaging and brain surgery: presurgical and intraoperative planning in 26 patients." Journal of Neurosurgery 92, no. 1 (January 2000): 79–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.3171/jns.2000.92.1.0079.
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Object. The availability of large-array biomagnetometers has led to advances in magnetoencephalography that permit scientists and clinicians to map selected brain functions onto magnetic resonance images. This merging of technologies is termed magnetic source (MS) imaging. The present study was undertaken to assess the role of MS imaging for the guidance of presurgical planning and intraoperative neurosurgical technique used in patients with intracranial mass lesions.Methods. Twenty-six patients with intracranial mass lesions underwent a medical evaluation consisting of MS imaging, a clinical history, a neurological examination, and assessment with the Karnofsky Performance Scale. Magnetic source imaging was used to locate the somatosensory cortex in 25 patients, the visual cortex in six, and the auditory cortex in four. The distance between the lesion and the functional cortex was determined for each patient.Twenty-one patients underwent a neurosurgical procedure. As a surgical adjunct, a frameless stereotactic navigational system was used in 17 cases and a standard stereotactic apparatus in four cases. Because of the results of their MS imaging examination, two patients were not offered surgery, four underwent a stereotactic biopsy procedure, 10 were treated with a subtotal surgical resection, and seven were treated with complete surgical resection. One patient deteriorated before a procedure could be scheduled and, therefore, was not offered surgery, and two patients were offered surgery but declined. Three patients experienced surgery-related complications.Conclusions. Magnetic source imaging is an important noninvasive neurodiagnostic tool that provides critical information regarding the spatial relationship of a brain lesion to functional cortex. By providing this information, MS imaging facilitates a minimum-risk management strategy and helps guide operative neurosurgical technique in patients with intracranial mass lesions.
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Lochhead, Ian M., and Nick Hedley. "Modeling evacuation in institutional space: Linking three-dimensional data capture, simulation, analysis, and visualization workflows for risk assessment and communication." Information Visualization 18, no. 1 (July 28, 2017): 173–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1473871617720811.
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This article presents exploratory research to develop new workflows that address the challenges of adequately capturing the geometry and topology of complex institutional spaces, the analysis of prescriptive evacuation plans, and the simulation of human movement and behavior in emergency scenarios. We present a collection of geovisual analytical environments that were developed to permit new ways to view and assess risk, evacuation, and human movement. Part of this research considers how different approaches to the representation of complex institutional space, using three-dimensional capture technologies at multiple resolutions (or derived from conventional formats, such as building plans), have implicit advantages or liabilities in the analysis of risk and human evacuation. We combine three-dimensional data capture methods with geographical information science theory, three-dimensional game engines, three-dimensional evacuation simulations and spatial analyses that address the variability of campus populations, and draw upon three-dimensional modeling and photogrammetry for the assessment of real-world features in digital space. The outcome of this research demonstrates agile workflows that address emergency planning requirements, but could also enable enhanced visual analysis and interactive learning by all campus citizens. Furthermore, this work reveals key considerations and limitations associated with the dynamic nature of evacuation events and the static environments in which they have been simulated.
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Fuchs, Clemens, Karl Marquardt, Joachim Kasten, and Katharina Skau. "Wind Turbines on German Farms—An Economic Analysis." Energies 12, no. 9 (April 26, 2019): 1587. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12091587.
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Only a small number of German farmers invest in wind turbines on the land they own; rather, they tend to lease land for that purpose to external investors. In this study, an explorative qualitative analysis of the reasons for this investment pattern was conducted. Calculations of the economic efficiency (e.g., net present value, payoff) of wind turbines built the foundation of the study. In addition, farmers in the northeastern federal state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania were interviewed to assess their motives for capital expenditure. A considerable amount of equity capital is required to set up a wind turbine. The capital invested frequently competes with the purchase of agricultural land. Erecting wind turbines involves risks. Substantial financial means for planning permission and other examinations precede the construction of a wind turbine. Only at the very end of these costly investigations will a construction permit be issued; as such, farmers face a high level of uncertainty during the whole process. Fluctuations in wind yield resulting in volatile revenues confront farmers with additional financial uncertainties. The risk-taking behavior of farmers was assessed normatively by the Hurwicz criterion. The results showed that farmers with the necessary funds at their disposal and a high level of optimism were more likely to take the risk to set up a wind turbine on their own land. They make this decision despite the fact that leasing one’s own land to external investors is predictably profitable and clearly less risky.
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Hampson, Lisa V., Paula R. Williamson, Martin J. Wilby, and Thomas Jaki. "A framework for prospectively defining progression rules for internal pilot studies monitoring recruitment." Statistical Methods in Medical Research 27, no. 12 (June 7, 2017): 3612–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0962280217708906.
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Just over half of publicly funded trials recruit their target sample size within the planned study duration. When recruitment targets are missed, the funder of a trial is faced with the decision of either committing further resources to the study or risk that a worthwhile treatment effect may be missed by an underpowered final analysis. To avoid this challenging situation, when there is insufficient prior evidence to support predicted recruitment rates, funders now require feasibility assessments to be performed in the early stages of trials. Progression criteria are usually specified and agreed with the funder ahead of time. To date, however, the progression rules used are typically ad hoc. In addition, rules routinely permit adaptations to recruitment strategies but do not stipulate criteria for evaluating their effectiveness. In this paper, we develop a framework for planning and designing internal pilot studies which permit a trial to be stopped early if recruitment is disappointing or to continue to full recruitment if enrolment during the feasibility phase is adequate. This framework enables a progression rule to be pre-specified and agreed upon prior to starting a trial. The novel two-stage designs stipulate that if neither of these situations arises, adaptations to recruitment should be made and subsequently evaluated to establish whether they have been successful. We derive optimal progression rules for internal pilot studies which minimise the expected trial overrun and maintain a high probability of completing the study when the recruitment rate is adequate. The advantages of this procedure are illustrated using a real trial example.
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Park, Hyungjun, Robert Paterson, Stephen Zigmund, Hyunsuk Shin, Youngsu Jang, and Juchul Jung. "The Effect of Coastal City Development on Flood Damage in South Korea." Sustainability 12, no. 5 (March 1, 2020): 1854. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12051854.
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Flood damage continues to be an issue in coastal cities. Impervious areas that contribute to flood damage are increasing due to the continuous development of ports in cities. However, previous research has not explored development in port hinterlands and in the coastal flood risk areas of coastal cities. Therefore, this study analyzed the impact of coastal city development on flood damage in Korea. A panel Tobit analysis was conducted on 58 coastal cities between 2002 and 2018. The results revealed that a 1% increase in impervious surfaces and one coastal development permit would increase damage costs by 1.29% and 2%, respectively. The analysis revealed that the increasing development of coastal cities had a significant impact on flood damage. The findings suggest that land-use plans highlight a conflict between port development and safety. This article provides insight that can be used by policy makers to manage risk areas near ports.
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Rakotonjanahary, Michaël, Frank Scholzen, and Daniele Waldmann. "Summertime Overheating Risk Assessment of a Flexible Plug-In Modular Unit in Luxembourg." Sustainability 12, no. 20 (October 14, 2020): 8474. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12208474.
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Modular buildings offer faster construction process, provide better construction quality, allow reducing construction waste and are potentially flexible. Frames of modular units can be made of metal, timber, concrete or mixed materials but lightweight structures do not always allow erecting high-rise buildings and generally present a higher risk of overheating and/or overcooling. To reconcile these pros and cons, a typology of modular building called Slab was designed by a group of architects. The building is composed on the one hand of a permanent concrete structure named shelf-structure and on the other hand of several flexible removable timber modular units, also known as modules. The shelf-structure will host the common utility rooms and will serve as docking infrastructure for the housing modules. To provide high flexibility, the Slab building was designed to adapt to any orientation and location in Luxembourg. An energy concept and a HVAC systems design has been developed for the Slab building. Furthermore, a two-fold sustainability analysis was carried out. The first part of the analysis regards the determination of the minimum required wall thicknesses of the modules in accordance with Luxembourgish regulatory requirements, although the current regulation does not yet consider the Slab building typology. The second part, which is the subject of this paper, is thermal comfort assessment, more precisely, summertime overheating risk assessment of these modules, in compliance with Luxembourgish standard. In this regard, dynamic thermal simulations have been realized on two module variants; the first fulfills the passive house requirements, and the second—the current requirements for building permit application, which in principle corresponds to low energy house requirements. Simulations showed that with adequate solar shading and reinforced natural ventilation by window opening, overheating risk could be avoided for the normal residential use scenario for both module variants.
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Baronie, F. M., M. Fenton, G. Harman, and M. Jury. "CAN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT THINKING BE APPLIED TO NEW OILFIELDS? A CASE STUDY OF THE EARLY STAGES OF THE ENFIELD AREA DEVELOPMENT IN AN ENVIRONMENTALLY AND SOCIALLY SENSITIVE AREA." APPEA Journal 43, no. 1 (2003): 753. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/aj02045.
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Can development of a finite resource, such as oil, be consistent with sustainable development? Sustainable development involves meeting the needs of current and future generations through simultaneous consideration of environmental, social and economic aspects (referred to as the triple bottom line).Since 1998, Woodside Energy Ltd (Woodside) has discovered three oil fields in the WA-271-P Permit area offshore North West Cape, northern Western Australia. The fields are some 20 km from the boundary of the Ningaloo Marine Park.The first part of this paper presents a case study of the Enfield Area Development. It describes the approach taken to simultaneously manage environmental, social and economic considerations while planning for the development of oil fields in exploration permit WA-271-P.A range of measures have been employed that are considered examples of best practice for the petroleum industry in Australia, including:early commitment to a range of responsible environmental management measures in design; a comprehensive community engagement program, with links to the development and environmental assessment processes; and pioneering environmental research.Novel methods of establishing environmental and social issues as key priorities within the Woodside development team have been successfully implemented.The case study provides by giving an overview of the most significant environmental risks associated with the proposed development, and concludes that the development does not represent a significant risk to the environment.The second part of the paper then addresses the question of whether oilfields can be developed sustainably, looking at current views from the literature, and whether the approach outlined in the case study can be considered sustainable.While the project is still in an early stage of development, it provides a strong indication that oil development can be consistent with current thinking on sustainability, provided that current needs, which include a dependence on fossil fuels, and future needs, such as preservation of the productive and social value of the environmental resource base, are balanced simultaneously. The paper concludes that oil development, even in an environmentally and socially sensitive area, can help facilitate the transition to a more sustainable future.
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Ewins, Karl, Fionnuala Ni Ainle, Eoghan Dunlea, Sarah Kelliher, Vicky Sandys, Hannorah Rooney, Lily Macken, and Ni Cheallaigh Cliona. "Socially Excluded Persons in Ireland Have an Increased Annual Risk of Hospitalisation Due to Venous Thromboembolic Disease." Blood 134, Supplement_1 (November 13, 2019): 4702. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood-2019-130371.
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Introduction Social exclusion in Ireland is strongly associated with injecting drug use, particularly injection of opiates into the groin: a strong risk factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE) (O'Reilly et al, 2015). Ní Cheallaigh et al (2017) reported a high burden of disease in socially excluded individuals in Ireland that can be effectively addressed by dedicated service planning and care provision. VTE in socially excluded persons has been identified by our group as a key knowledge gap. We have generated preliminary data demonstrating that socially excluded people account for a significant proportion of patients presenting with VTE in Dublin. Methods We extracted national Hospital InPatient Enquiry (HIPE) data from Health Atlas Ireland using the methods outlined in Kevane et al (2019). We identified individuals as "socially excluded persons" if their records contained one or more of the variables identified by Aldridge et al (2018): homeless individuals, prisoners, sex workers and individuals with substance use disorders. We identified all emergency inpatient hospital admissions for those with any diagnosis of VTE during 2017 using VTE-associated ICD-10 codes. Results There were 494,972 emergency inpatient admissions in patients >16 years during this 12 month period, of which 5,717 (1.2%) had a VTE diagnosis (55% of which were DVTs). 306 (5.3%) of hospital episodes with VTE occurred in socially excluded individuals. Applying maximum and minimum assumptions on the estimated population denominator we estimated that overall the annual incidence rate of VTE-related hospitalisation per person was approximately 10-fold higher in socially excluded individuals when compared to the general population (in which it was 0.12%). Conclusions This is the first time that an approximately ten-fold increase in the risk of hospitalisation due to VTE has been shown to be associated with social exclusion. This information was generated from national data, using surrogate identifiers for socially excluded persons. We hypothesise that detailed characterisation of VTE events in socially excluded clients will permit improved service planning and care provision for these vulnerable patients, enabling better VTE prevention and management. This may save lives and prevent the disabling and common long-term consequence of post-thrombotic syndrome with debilitating leg ulcers, which in this population results in numerous admissions and severe mobility issues. Planning such initiatives has the potential to reduce morbidity and mortality, improve quality of life but also to reduce hospital admissions (which are hugely over-represented in this patient group), save costs and resources and most importantly results in more equitable health care for socially excluded patients. Disclosures Ewins: Amgen: Other: Conference Fees & Travel Expenses; Bayer: Other: Conference Fees & Travel Expenses. Ni Ainle:BMS: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Daiichi Sankyo: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Bayer: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Boehringer: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Leo Pharma: Research Funding; Actelion: Research Funding. Cliona:Pfizer: Research Funding; MSD: Other: Travel Expenses.
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Williams, Shaun, Ryan Paulik, Rebecca Weaving, Cyprien Bosserelle, Josephina Chan Ting, Kieron Wall, Titimanu Simi, and Finn Scheele. "Multiscale Quantification of Tsunami Hazard Exposure in a Pacific Small Island Developing State: The Case of Samoa." GeoHazards 2, no. 2 (May 11, 2021): 63–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geohazards2020004.
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This study presents a scenario-based approach for identifying and comparing tsunami exposure across different sociopolitical scales. In Samoa, a country with a high threat to local tsunamis, we apply scenarios for the 2009 South Pacific tsunami inundation at different grid resolutions (50 and 10 m) to quantify building and road exposure at the national, district and village levels. We show that while the coarser 50 m model is adequate for use in the rapid identification of exposure at the national and district levels, it can overestimate exposure by up to three times more at the village level. Overestimation typically occurs in areas characterized by flat, low-lying, gentle-rising terrain. Overall, a 35% increase in buildings exposed to the 50 m model is observed compared with the 10 m scenario on southeast Upolu island. Similarly, a 31% increase in road exposure is observed for the 50 m scenario. These observations are discussed within the context of tsunami evacuation planning and logistics. Notwithstanding the variability in exposure, a precautionary approach leads us to conclude that while higher-resolution models are recommended where available data and/or financial resources permit, the absence of such datasets should not preclude the use of coarser hazard datasets in risk assessments. Finer-resolution models provide more credence in detailed local-level exposure evaluation. While the results of this study are specific to the Samoan context, the results can be applied to the multiscale assessment of tsunami risk exposure in similar hazard contexts.
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Dhewi, Siska, and Ahmad Zacky Anwary Anwary. "Abortion According to Herbal Consume and Parity in the Private Practice Midwife Clinic of Hajjah Gunarti Banjar Baru." Jurnal Ilmu Kesehatan Masyarakat 11, no. 2 (July 31, 2020): 160–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.26553/jikm.2020.11.2.160-170.
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Abortion is a world problem that greatly affects the health, illness and death of pregnant women. The data of the Hj. Gunarti Clinic there were 27 cases of mothers who experienced abortion in 2018, while in 2019, there were an increase of 38 cases. The purpose of this study was to determine the correlation between maternal habits in consuming herbs during pregnancy and maternal parity with the spontaneous abortion prevalence. The research design used is case control, with a ratio of 1:1. There were 38 samples as a cases group and 38 control group samples. The study was conducted at the Private Practice Midwife Clinic of Hj. Gunarti Banjarbaru city, South Kalimantan Province in April to June 2020. The results of the study showed a significant correlation between the habit of consuming herbal medicine with the abortion cases, that mothers with the habit of consuming herbal during pregnancy had a 3.58 times greater risk of having abortion compared to women who did not consume herbal during pregnancy (OR = 3.58, 95% CI: 1.267-10.143, p value = 0.026), and there is a significant correlation between parity and the abortion cases, mothers with high-risk parity (parity> 3) have a risk of 2.95 times greater abortion than mothers with low-risk parity levels ( OR = 2.95, 95% CI: 1.159-7.503, p value = 0.039). It is recommended for health workers to be more active in socializing to the pregnant women not to consume any herbal medicine carelessly, especially those who do not have permit from the drug and food regulatory agencies, so as to avoid the occurrence of unwanted abortion. In addition to that it also further improves the achievements of the family planning program to be able to limit the number of maternal pregnancies in the community.
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Jensen, Ditte M. R., Anja T. H. Thomsen, Torben Larsen, Sara Egemose, and Peter S. Mikkelsen. "From EU Directives to Local Stormwater Discharge Permits: A Study of Regulatory Uncertainty and Practice Gaps in Denmark." Sustainability 12, no. 16 (August 5, 2020): 6317. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12166317.
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Climate changes and urbanization push cities to redesign their drainage systems, which may increase separate stormwater discharges to local recipients. In the EU, regulation of these is governed by the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Floods Directive, but national implementation varies and is often supplemented with local non-legislative guidelines. By reviewing trends and discrepancies in the Danish regulation practice for separated stormwater discharges, this article investigates how the directives are put into effect. A legislative gap for separate stormwater discharges introduces uncertainty in the discharge permit conditions, which especially affect conditions targeting water quality. We point to several topics to be addressed, e.g., the level at which the regulation of separate stormwater discharges takes place, opportunities for coordination with flood risk and climate change adaptation initiatives, as well as uncertainties regarding the application of Best Available Techniques. Working with these issues would elevate the regulation practice and aid regulators in reaching a more holistic and consistent approach, thus improving chances of reaching the desired recipient status before or after the WFD deadline in 2027. This could be undertaken at river basin, river basin district or national level, but there is also potential for harvesting mutual benefits by addressing these challenges internationally.
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Esipova, I. А., L. M. Kappusheva, V. G. Breusenko, D. M. Lyafisheva, A. V. Ovchinnikova, and A. V. Demidov. "Ultrasound assessment of the uterine wall after hysteroscopic myomectomy of submucous uterine fibroids." Voprosy ginekologii, akušerstva i perinatologii 19, no. 4 (2020): 5–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.20953/1726-1678-2020-4-5-21.
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Objective. To study the state of the myometrium and the endometrium after hysteroscopic myomectomy of uterine fibroid using 2D/3D transvaginal echography in patients of reproductive age. Patients and methods. We examined 90 patients of reproductive age with submucous uterine fibroid, who underwent 117 one-, two- or three-step hysteroscopic resections performed with a new technique of transcervical myomectomy. 3D transvaginal echography was performed in all patients with target assessment of the fibroid type and the intended resection site, and also with subsequent assessment of its changes. Results. A new technique of fibroid resection with rigid loops was elaborated. New options for noninvasive 3D-US in preoperative diagnosis of uterine fibroids have been determined. Owing to 3D-US, the state of the endometrium, myometrium at the «resection site» were studied for the first time. Indications for one-, two- and tree-step resections have been specified. Conclusion. 3D transvaginal echography at the stage of planning hysteroscopic myomectomy allows not only a more precise determination of the fibroid type, assessment of its location and size, but also prediction of the length of operative intervention, the likelihood of multi-step resection and a risk of developing postoperative complications, as well as recommendation of other surgical treatments. Intraoperative ultrasound surgical navigation was introduced, which in combination with an appropriate resection technique permits to enhance the safety of surgical procedure. Depending on the echographic image of the endometrium and myometrium at the «resection site», specific recommendations have been formulated on management of the postoperative period that can permit to prevent the formation of synechiae and to determine precise terms of possible pregnancy occurrence. Key words: infertility, hysteroscopic myomectomy, resection site, uterine fibroid, reproductive age, submucosal fibroid, ultrasound examination, 3D-US
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Benmessaoud, H., F. Chergui, R. Sahnouni, and C. Chafai. "The Potential Of Geomatics In The Realization Of A Map Of Desertification Sensitivity Southern Massif Belezma - Batna - (Algeria)." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XL-7/W3 (April 29, 2015): 751–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprsarchives-xl-7-w3-751-2015.
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Desertification is the gradual and sustained reduction in the quantity and quality of the biological productivity of arid and semi-arid land. <br><br> The study area is located in the North Eastern part of Algeria, it has a rich heritage in its biodiversity, however weather conditions and adverse human reality, induce a degradation of the physical environment in the form of a regression of vegetation cover. To assess desertification in our study area map of desertification sensitivity is a tool for decision support. <br><br> For the realization of this Map we used the ArcGis software applied a methodology which is inspired by the concept MEDALUS (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use, 1999) by crossing four thematic layers that may have an impact on the process of desertification. <br><br> The results of Cartography and statistical analysis permit the classification of our region in terms of sensitivity to desertification in four very important classes. (Not affected, Insensitive, Sensitive and highly sensitive). <br><br> More than 69.92% of the surface area were classified sensitive to very sensitive, For against 30.07% is classified in unallocated insensitive. <br><br> Planning restoration work and the fight against desertification are expected to limit the risk of desertification in the study area perspectives.
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Sternberg, Ernest, George C. Lee, and Danial Huard. "Counting Crises: US Hospital Evacuations, 1971–1999." Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 19, no. 2 (June 2004): 150–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x00001667.
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AbstractObjectives:To investigate the relative distribution of hazards causing hospital evacuations, thereby to provide rudimentary risk information for hospital disaster planning.Methods:Cases of hospital evacuations were retrieved from newspaper and publication databases and classified according to hazard type, proximate and original cause, duration, and casualties. Both partial and full evacuations were included. The total number of evacuation incidents for all hazards were compared to the total number of hospital incidents for the one hazard, fire, for which national data is available.Results:There were 275 reported evacuation incidents from 1971–1999, with an annual average of 21 in the 1990s, the period for which databases were more reliable. The most, 33, were recorded in 1994, the year of the Northridge Earthquake. Of all incidents, 63 (23%) were attributable primarily to internal fire, followed by internal hazardous materials (HazMat) events (18%), hurricane (14%), human threat (13%), earthquake (9%), external fire (6%), flood (6%), utility failure (5%), and external HazMat (4%).Conclusions:More than 50% of the hospital evacuations occurred because of hazards originating in the hospital facility itself or from human intruders. While natural disasters were not the preponderant causes of evacuations, they caused severe problems when multiple hospitals in the same urban area were incapacitated simultaneously. Clearly, as hospitals are vulnerable to many hazards, mitigation investments should be assessed not in terms of single-hazard risk-cost-benefit analysis, but in terms of capacity to mitigate multiple hazards. In view of the many qualifications and limitations of the dataset used here, but value of such data for disaster planning, hospitals should be asked to submit standardized incident reports to permit national data gathering on major disruptions.
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Hera-Portillo, África de la, Julio López-Gutiérrez, Beatriz Mayor, Elena López-Gunn, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ryle Nørskov Gejl, Pedro Zorrilla-Miras, and Pedro Martínez-Santos. "An Initial Framework for Understanding the Resilience of Aquifers to Groundwater Pumping." Water 13, no. 4 (February 17, 2021): 519. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13040519.
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Groundwater stored in aquifers experiences a wide variety of natural, induced and/or anthropogenic disturbances. Among them, groundwater extraction is the main disturbance that affects most of the aquifers in the world. Aquifer’s resilience, understood as the potential of the aquifer to sustain disturbances on the long term and to guarantee essential qualities and functions, provides a key tool when assessing sustainable groundwater management alternatives. The aim of this work is to illustrate an aquifer resilience framework that can support groundwater sustainable management. A theoretical framework is based on the identification of the key variables that parameterize the quantitative and qualitative responses of the groundwater flow system to pumping. An example from the literature based in Denmark is provided as an illustration of the proposed framework. The results show that long-term high quality data are essential to make a step further in aquifers dynamic responses. The quantitative understanding of the aquifer’s behavior before, during and after groundwater extraction provides a valuable source of information in order to identify thresholds of change (tipping points, transitions or regime shifts) which could permit pro-active groundwater management decisions. Moreover, a deeper understanding on the aquifer’s dynamics provides useful information in order to avert threats that may put the sustainability of the system at risk.
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Utami, Westi, Arga Yugan Ndaru, Anggi Widyastuti, and I. Made Alit Swardiana. "Pengurangan Resiko Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan Melalui Pemetaan HGU dan Pengendalian Pertanahan (Studi Kasus Provinsi Riau)." BHUMI: Jurnal Agraria dan Pertanahan 3, no. 2 (August 19, 2018): 232. http://dx.doi.org/10.31292/jb.v3i2.127.
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Abstract: Oil palm plantation expansion through inappropriate land clearing usually trigger forest fire and peat land fire in Riau Province. The purpose of this paper is to find the method to reduce disaster risk through preventive activities, conducted by mapping the distribution of Cultivation Right, and was overlaid with the map of disaster risk and agrarian control through location permit and control of spatial planning. The method used to produce disaster-prone area map was quantitative scoring and weighting, using Composite Mapping Analysis (CMA) method based on the relationship between factors with the percentage of fire spot (hotspot). The results show that from the distribution of cultivation right based on the level of vulnerability in Riau Province, there are 45 location of cultivation right lies along very high-risk area of forest fire with the total area of 95.260,7 hectares (10,4%); most of the area, counted for 70,4% with the area of 647.140,3 hectares covering 143 Cultivation Right location, located on the vulnerable area of forest fire; while 19,2% of the total cultivation right area are in less vulnerable area, spreading over 25 Cultivation Right location. Intisari: Ekspansi perkebunan sawit melalui land clearing yang tidak tepat seringkali memicu terjadinya kebakaran hutan dan lahan gambut di Provinsi Riau. Pengurangan resiko bencana melalui kegiatan preventif yaitu penyusunan peta sebaran HGU dioverlaykan dengan peta tingkat kerawanan bencana serta pengendalian pertanahan melalui ijin lokasi dan pengendalian melalui RTRW merupakan tujuan dari tulisan ini. Metode yang digunakan untuk menyusun peta kerawanan bencana adalah scoring dan pembobotan dilakukan secara kuantitatif menggunakan metode Composite Mapping Analysis (CMA) berdasarkan hubungan setiap faktor terhadap persentase titik api (hotspot). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa dari sebaran HGU berdasarkan tingkat kerawanan di Provinsi Riau sebanyak 45 lokasi HGU berada pada daerah sangat rawan bencana kebakaran dengan total luasan 95.260,7 ha (10,4%); sebagian besar yaitu 70,4% dengan luasan 647.160,3 ha dengan sebaran sebanyak 143 HGU berada pada kawasan ancaman rawan terhadap bencana kebakaran hutan dan lahan; sementara 19,2% dari total luasan HGU berada pada kategori kurang rawan yang tersebar pada 25 HGU.
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Wicher-Dysarz, Joanna, Ewelina Szałkiewicz, Joanna Jaskuła, Tomasz Dysarz, and Maksymilian Rybacki. "Possibilities of Controlling the River Outlets by Weirs on the Example of Noteć Bystra River." Sustainability 12, no. 6 (March 18, 2020): 2369. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12062369.
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The possibility of effective control of selected dams in the Noteć Bystra river is analyzed. Such a control is expected to permit inundation of selected arable areas, e.g., peat grasslands, to avoid flooding of the city of Czarnków and the terrains located downstream. The chosen case study is the reach of the Noteć River between the dams Pianowka–Mikolajewo–Rosko. The analysis was made on the basis of simulations of the flow and regulation of dams in flood conditions. The flow peaks of hypothetical flood waves were designed according to the directions of the ISOK project (Informatyczny System Osłony Kraju przed nadzwyczajnymi zagrożeniami—IT System of the Country’s Protection Against Extreme Hazards) as the maximum flows over 10-years (p = 10%), 100-years (p = 1%), and 500-years (p = 0.2%). The obtained results are presented as longitudinal profiles of the water surface, maps of inundated areas and maps of inundated soils. The main conclusion is that the robust control of dams reduces the peak of flow during flood wave propagation and forces inundation of the a priori selected areas. It helps to decrease the spatial range of the flood hazard and significantly reduces risk related to floods.
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Liesebach, Heike, Katharina Liepe, and Cornelia Bäucker. "Towards new seed orchard designs in Germany – A review." Silvae Genetica 70, no. 1 (January 1, 2021): 84–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/sg-2021-0007.
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Abstract New first and 1.5 generation seed orchards are to be created in Germany based on recently assembled breeding populations of Acer pseudoplatanus, Larix sp., Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Pseudotsuga menziesii, and Quercus sp. To justify the high expenses in time and cost for orchard establishment and maintenance, planning should make use of consolidated knowledge and experience of both the national and international scientific community. Here, we briefly describe advances in genetic gains achieved through tree breeding, and resume population genetic aspects and design considerations to draw conclusions for clonal composition and spatial design of the new orchards. We conclude that to avoid outbreeding depression separate orchards are required for each breeding zone. The zones are species-specific and defined by ecological and climatic aspects. A minimum of 60-80 clones per orchard is recommended for native tree species with high proportions of natural regeneration in forest practice. This would allow future selective thinning based on estimated breeding values from progeny testing. It would also permit the transfer of seed orchard progenies into a naturally regenerating forest stands without the risk of a genetic bottleneck. Lower clone numbers are appropriate for non-native species and hybrids. It is important to strictly avoid inbreeding depression, achieved by using only one clone per progeny or population, from which the plus trees were selected. Further, the spatial layout should promote random mating by optimizing the neighbourhood of each clone. With all of these considerations taken into account, we expect superior quality traits and at least 10-15 % more volume from the new seed orchards.
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Speckhahn, Sophia, and Ellinor Isgren. "The irresistible solution: rationale and risks of extending water limits through desalination in the case of Gotland, Sweden." Journal of Political Ecology 26, no. 1 (January 4, 2019): 128. http://dx.doi.org/10.2458/v26i1.22984.
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<p>Water resources are under increasing pressure, and there are tensions between increasing demand and the natural limits to potable water supply. Authorities must find solutions that fulfil societal demands without compromising environmental integrity. As one way to counteract water deficits, desalination has evolved as an attractive solution. This technology is contested and associated with a variety of social, environmental and economic consequences; yet it is increasingly used. In Sweden, the technology is rare but recent droughts have spurred interest. On the island of Gotland, where Sweden's first larger desalination plant was inaugurated in 2016, we examine the perceived benefits and drawbacks of desalination as well as the decision-making process that led up to its implementation. Through qualitative analysis of public documents and stakeholder interviews, we identify mechanisms that contributed to desalination becoming a favored solution. We find that it is associated with a number of benefits that are in line with broader development goals, against which its drawbacks are considered to be acceptable or externalized. Desalination extends natural limits to permit development, delaying deeper social and economic restructuring. Rather than arguing against desalination <em>per se</em>, we emphasize the risk of the depoliticization of water supply through technocratic decision-making, the normalization of scarcity and certain technologies, and the urgency that builds around increasing water supply 'at any economic cost.' These tendencies obscure drawbacks, limitations and conflicting interests. They foreclose the questioning of resource intensive development. In order to invoke transformation towards long-term sustainability of Gotland's water supply, policy-makers should seek to diversify their sources of knowledge and encourage more open democratic debate around alternative regional development pathways.</p><p><strong>Keywords:</strong> desalination, natural limits, water scarcity, Gotland, political ecology, technocracy, depoliticization, normalization</p>
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Pochi, Daniele, Roberto Fanigliulo, Carlo Bisaglia, Maurizio Cutini, Renato Grilli, Laura Fornaciari, Monica Betto, et al. "Test Rig and Method for Comparative Evaluation of Conventional and Bio-Based Hydraulic Fluids and Lubricants for Agricultural Transmissions." Sustainability 12, no. 20 (October 16, 2020): 8564. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12208564.
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The use of lubricants and hydraulic fluids of both mineral and synthetic origin in agricultural processes could have a deep impact on the environment as a result of their possible dispersion in the ground and aquifers. Replacing them with bio-based fluids, developed to provide good tribological properties and high biodegradability, could contribute to reducing their negative effects. The evaluation of the capacity of such innovative fluids to replace the conventional ones is based on work cycles lasting as long as their lifetime, during which their characteristics must prove to be at least equal to those of the fluids they replace. To shorten the evaluation process, CREA (Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia Agraria) developed a fluid test rig (FTR) and related test method, able to apply severe work cycles on small oil volumes, thereby accelerating the aging of the fluid beyond what typically occurs. This paper reports the results of the tests on FTR’s functionality carried out comparing two UTTO (Universal Tractor Transmission Oil) fluids: a widespread conventional fluid and an experimental vegetable-based oil. The FTR will permit, in a relatively short time, the assessment of the most promising formulations to be tested later under real working conditions, e.g., in agricultural tractors, reducing the risk of damage, before their ultimate introduction into the operating reality.
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Baráth, Lajos, and Imre Fertő. "Accounting for TFP Growth in Global Agriculture - a Common-Factor-Approach-Based TFP Estimation." Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics 12, no. 4 (December 30, 2020): 3–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.7160/aol.2020.120401.
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There is no consensus about trends in agricultural productivity among agricultural economists. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the investigation of this issue by estimating a Total Factor Productivity (TFP) index for global agriculture and global agricultural regions. One of the biggest challenges with analysing global productivity trends is the lack of price data or cost shares, especially in developing countries. We apply recently introduced econometric models that permit accounting for technology heterogeneity and the time-series properties of data to estimate cost shares. Aggregate sectoral data from the USDA ERS database are investigated for the period 1990 to 2013. Although we used a different method, our results are in line with earlier findings that used USDA or FAO database. TFP growth has accelerated in world agriculture, largely due to better performance in transition countries. Although TFP growth has accelerated in world agriculture, it has slowed down in industrialized countries. TFP growth in the EU has increased, but at slower rate in recent years. In the Old Member States the growth rate has decreased, whereas in the New Member States it has increased. The results highlight that insufficient spending on productivity-enhancing agricultural R&D in industrialized countries may put future agricultural productivity growth at risk.
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Olstad, W. B. "Space Station Technology—Challenge and Opportunity." Journal of Engineering for Industry 107, no. 1 (February 1, 1985): 3–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.3185963.
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As the start-up of development of a permanent U.S. space station draws near, the technologist is faced with the responsibility of delivering to the designer a product that is “ready” so as to assure effective handover at a minimum level of technical risk or residual development cost. At the same time, the technologist is asked to provide as broad a range of options as possible for the designer’s consideration. All this must be done for a set of requirements and constraints that are as yet vague. These uncertainties make the planning process and management decisions difficult. However, NASA’s approach has been to call on the collective wisdom of the aerospace community through establishment of a Space Station Technology Steering Committee (SSTSC). This in-house NASA committee represents all Centers plus the JPL and covers all significant discipline areas and the experimental spectrum from basic research to system development. Currently ten working groups report to the Committee. A number of issues have been pinpointed by the Committee while identifying the desired level of technology for incorporation in a U. S. space station, both initially and as it grows in size, capability, and utility. These issues revolve around the needs to anticipate requirements, consider minimization of life-cycle costs, engender station growth, maximize efficiency of the technology “hand-over” process, permit on-orbit maintenance and repair, facilitate useful operational and scientific activities, and use space station development as a deliberate mechanism to advance technologies in areas selected to bring major benefit to the United States in general, as well as the space station in particular.
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Monroy-Sosa, Alejandro, Jonathan Jennings, Srikant Chakravarthi, Melanie B. Fukui, Juanita Celix, Nathaniel Kojis, Mark Lindsay, Sarika Walia, Richard Rovin, and Amin Kassam. "Microsurgical Anatomy of the Vertical Rami of the Superior Longitudinal Fasciculus: An Intraparietal Sulcus Dissection Study." Operative Neurosurgery 16, no. 2 (June 5, 2018): 226–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ons/opy077.
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Abstract BACKGROUND A number of vertical prolongations of the superior longitudinal fasciculus, which we refer to as the vertical rami (Vr), arise at the level of the supramarginal gyrus, directed vertically toward the parietal lobe. OBJECTIVE To provide the first published complete description of the white matter tracts (WMT) of the Vr, their relationship to the intraparietal and parieto-occipital sulci (IPS-POS complex), and their importance in neurosurgical approaches to the parietal lobe. METHODS Subcortical dissections of the Vr and WMT of the IPS were performed. Findings were correlated with a virtual dissection using high-resolution diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) tractography data derived from the Human Connectome Project. Example planning of a transparietal, transsulcal operative corridor is demonstrated using an integrated neuronavigation and optical platform. RESULTS The Vr were shown to contain component fibers of the superior longitudinal fasciculus (SLF)-II and SLF-III, with contributions from the middle longitudinal fasciculus merging into the medial bank of the IPS. The anatomic findings correlated well with DTI tractography. The line extending from the lateral extent of the POS to the IPS marks an ideal sulcal entry point that we have termed the IPS-POS Kassam-Monroy (KM) Point, which can be used to permit a safe parafascicular surgical trajectory to the trigone. CONCLUSION The Vr are a newly conceptualized group of tracts merging along the banks of the IPS, mediating connectivity between the parietal lobe and dorsal stream/SLF. We suggest a refined surgical trajectory to the ventricular atrium utilizing the posterior third of the IPS, at or posterior to the IPS-POS Point, in order to mitigate risk to the Vr and its considerable potential for postsurgical morbidity.
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Formago, Margaret, Michael Schrauder, Claudia Rauh, Carolin Hack, Sebastian Jud, Thomas Hildebrandt, Rüdiger Schulz-Wendtland, et al. "Should Breast Cancer Surgery Be Done in an Outpatient Setting?" Geburtshilfe und Frauenheilkunde 77, no. 08 (August 2017): 879–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-0043-114427.
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Abstract Introduction The care of patients with breast cancer is extremely complex and requires interdisciplinary care in certified facilities. These specialized facilities provide numerous services without being correspondingly remunerated. The question whether breast cancer surgery should be performed in an outpatient setting to reduce costs is increasingly being debated. This study compares inpatient surgical treatment with a model of the same surgery performed on an outpatient basis to examine the potential financial impact. Material and Methods A theoretical model was developed and the DRG fees for surgical interventions to treat primary breast cancer were calculated. A theoretical 1-day DRG was then calculated to permit comparisons with outpatient procedures. The costs of outpatient surgery were calculated based on the remuneration rates of the AOP (Outpatient Surgery) Contract and the EBM (Uniform Assessment Scale) and compared to the costs of the 1-day DRG. Results The DRG fee for both breast-conserving surgery and mastectomy is higher than the fee paid in the context of the EBM system, although the same procedures were carried out in both systems. If a hospital were to carry out breast-conserving surgery as an outpatient procedure, the fee would be € 1313.81; depending on the type of surgery, the hospital would therefore only receive between 39.20% and 52.82% of the DRG fee. This was the case even for a 1-day treatment. Compared to the real DRG fees the difference would be even more striking. Conclusion Carrying out breast cancer surgery as an outpatient procedure would result in a significant shortfall of revenues. Additional services from certified centers, such as the interdisciplinary planning of treatment, psycho-oncological and social-medical care with the involvement of relatives, detailed documentation, etc., which are currently provided without surcharge or adequate remuneration, could no longer be maintained. The quality of processes and excellent results which have been achieved and ultimately the care given by certified facilities would be significantly at risk.
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Lüley, Jakub, Branislav Vrban, Štefan Čerba, Filip Osuský, and Vladimír Nečas. "Unmanned Radiation Monitoring System." EPJ Web of Conferences 225 (2020): 08008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/202022508008.
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The absence of online radiation monitoring systems has been observed in the case of Fukushima nuclear accident. As the tsunami destroyed 23 of the 24 status monitoring points, almost no relevant radiation dose measurements data were available. A rapid deployment of a mobile radiological unit that can quickly determine the activity and direction of the radioactive cloud spread on the ground or in the air can prevent unnecessary deaths and related financial losses. Although the design of the current generation of NPPs incorporates features that minimize the risk of large radioactive releases outside the reactor, it is still important to focus on the development of systems that can mitigate the consequences of such events. In situations when the level of radiation does not permit the personal to perform the required measurements, online unmanned radiation monitoring systems may come to the play. For such a purpose the RMS-00x radiation monitoring system could be used, which is a modular system covering the functionality of dose rate measurement, air sampling and radiation map creation without requiring the human personnel to be present at the measurement site. The main purpose of the RMS-00x radiation monitoring system is the rapid deployment of unmanned monitoring devices to reduce the radiation burden on workers and on public. The system can be applied in the vicinity of a nuclear power plant (NPP) or at any location, where source of ionizing radiation could be present. Before this system is used in real conditions, its components must be thoroughly calibrated, based on certified measurement equipment and state-of-art simulation tools. This paper deals with the description of the RMS-00X sensor modules and demonstrates their functionality in combination with UAV. In addition, demonstration of the use of the developed technology was carried out as part of the regular emergency planning and preparedness of EBO NPP on 26th October 2017.
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Diachuk, D. D., O. L. Ziukov, O. M. Lishchyshyna, and A. V. Stepanenko. "INFORMATION SOURCES SUPPORTING MANAGERIAL DECISIONS ON HEALTH CARE IN EMERGENCY MEDICAL AND BIOLOGICAL SITUATIONS (ON THE EXAMPLE OF COVID-19 MANAGEMENT)." Клінічна та профілактична медицина 4, no. 14 (December 20, 2020): 4–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.31612/2616-4868.4(14).2020/covid-19.
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Abstract. In light of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), we carried out a regular review of the information resources of international organizations specializing in combating infectious diseases, as well as governmental and intergovernmental organizations of the world's leading countries with strong economies and stringent regulatory systems in January-December 2020.
The analysis of the materials accumulated on the monitoring results revealed some differences in the legislation and practice of health care organization in Ukraine. First of all, this is a small number of registered clinical trials on COVID-19 prevention and treatment, as well as the lack of permit to use medicines for the indications which are not in basic prescribing information, in particular, "compassionate treatment" programs or emergency access to medicines, which are in clinical trials.
In the absence of traditional evidence of the health interventions effectiveness, it is necessary to emphasize the importance of identifying reliable information sources, transparency, quick and widespread information disclosure and experience exchange on challenging issues of resource and risk management, communication and public health activities, discussion of organizational forms and clinical activities in public health in the vast majority of countries. The establishment of independent monitoring and analytical centers, the participation of professional communities in various studies is an example of the rapid scientific data acquisition and supporting recommendations on various aspects of countering the pandemic.
Based on the analysis of international data published in reliable sources, the legislation has been changed in Ukraine, the approaches to planning the transformation of the health care system have been identified to increase its resistance to the infectious diseases epidemic, the quarantine measures and other restrictions have been justified, the standards of medical and pharmaceutical care have been presented, the measures to ensure the availability of medical care for patients with health disorders of other etiologies and priority areas for the development of health care facilities to protect medical staff and patients have been identified.
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Oustaloup, A., B. Orsoni, P. Melchior, and H. Linarès. "Path planning by fractional differentiation." Robotica 21, no. 1 (January 2003): 59–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0263574702004319.
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In path planning design, potential fields can introduce force constraints to ensure curvature continuity of trajectories and thus facilitate path-tracking design. The parametric thrift of fractional potentials permits smooth variations of the potential in function of the distance to obstacles without requiring design of geometric charge distribution. In the approach we use, the fractional order of differentiation is the risk coefficient associated to obstacles. A convex danger map towards a target and a convex geodesic distance map are defined. Real-time computation can also lead to the shortest minimum danger trajectory, or to the least dangerous of minimum length trajectories.
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May, Irina V., S. V. Kleyn, S. A. Vekovshinina, and S. Yu Balashov. "The use of the methodology of risk assessment in the elaboration of the general layout of an urban settlement." Hygiene and sanitation 95, no. 1 (October 28, 2019): 22–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.18821/00169900-2016-95-1-22-28.
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In the framework of the solution of tasks of spatial planning and the development of territories of regions of the Russian Federation as well as during the development of general layouts of urban settlements the potential human health risk assessment has been shown to be performed. The use of health risk criteria permits to avoid the underestimation of hazards, to provide safe and favorable living conditions by means of town-planning design; to restrict the harmful impact of anthropogenic and other activities on the environment to the acceptable levels according to the criteria of population health; to use rationally the urban resources to the benefit of living and future generations.
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Pondarre, Corinne, Annie Kamdem, Cécile Arnaud, Serge Pissard, Josiane Michau, Clément Tassel, Isabelle Hau, Ralph Epaud, and Francoise Bernaudin. "Early Clinical Manifestations, Presence Of a Single Bantou Haplotype and High Baseline Reticulocyte Count Predict Severity In a Sickle Cell Anemia Newborn Cohort." Blood 122, no. 21 (November 15, 2013): 2213. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood.v122.21.2213.2213.
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Abstract Introduction Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is a monogenic disease with multigenic expressivity. The ability to identify high-risk SCA-children would permit accurate prognostication and better genetic counselling, and facilitate the planning of clinical trials. Miller et al. (CSSCD) reported in 2000 that early dactylitis, baseline Hb level<7g/dl, and leukocytosis correlated significantly with adverse outcomes later in life. However, Quinn et al. reported in 2007 in the Dallas newborn cohort that none of the events before age 3 predicted death or stroke after age 3. Patients and Methods This study revisits this issue using the Créteil Newborn Cohort (1986-2011). The dates and nature of the 1st SCA-related manifestations and further clinical events were prospectively recorded: vaso-occlusive crises (VOC) including dactylitis, acute chest syndromes (ACS), strokes, splenic sequestrations and acute anemia < 6g/dl. Alpha-genes, beta-globin haplotypes, G6PD activity, CD36 platelet expression were determined and baseline biological parameters (WBC, PMN, platelets, Hb, Hct, MCV, reticulocytes, HbF%, LDH) were recorded between 1-2 years of age, a minimum of 3 months away from a transfusion, one month from a painful episode and before any intensive therapy. The criteria of severity retained for this study were death or events requiring intensive therapy, defined as hydroxycarbamide (HC) prescribed for patients having experienced at least 3 VOC/year or 2 ACS or with baseline Hb<7g/dl; transfusion program (TP) for those with recurrent splenic sequestrations or strokes or abnormal velocities on Doppler (TCD); stem cell transplantation (HSCT) for those with indication of intensive therapy and genoidentical donor. Cox regression was used to analyze the predictive factors of severity. Results This newborn cohort consists of 363 patients (55 SC,28 Sb+,262 SS,15 Sb0,3 SDPunjab). Median age at last visit was 6.4 years, providing 2827 patient-years of follow-up. As no SC or Sb+ patient died or experienced events requiring intensive therapy, analysis of severity criteria was only performed on SS, Sb0, SDPunjab, referred as SCA-patients (n=280). Alpha-thalassemia was present in 41.6%, Bantou/Bantou beta haplotype in 43.4% (vs 5.9% in the CSSCD cohort), Benin/Benin in 22.9%, Senegal/Senegal in 10.2%, “other” in 23.4%. G6PD deficiency was observed in 11.4% and CD36 non-expression in 7%. Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival by age 5 and 18 were 97.6% (95%CI:95.6-99.6%). One-hundred-fifty-one/280 SCA-patients (54%) required intensive therapy at the median age of 3.8yr (0.1-20): 69 HC, 136 TP, and 41 HSCT (patients may have successively received HC, TP and HSCT). Cumulative risk of severity criteria was 45% by age 5 and 70% by age 10. Univariate Cox analysis showed that Bantou presence (52.6%), CD36 non-expression, early SCA-1st manifestation (<1 and <3 year of age), baseline high level of WBC, reticulocytes and LDH, low levels of Hb and Hct were significantly associated with severity whereas platelets, HbF, MCV, alpha genes number and G6PD were not. Multivariate Cox analysis retained as significant and independent predictive risk factors for severity: high reticulocyte level (>400x109/L) (HR=2.82,95%CI:1.70-4.69,p<0.001); the presence of a single Bantou haplotype (HR=1.76,95% CI:1.18-2.60,p=0.007); and early (<1 year of age) first SCA-clinical manifestation (HR=2.35,95%CI:1.55-3.56,p<0.001). Conclusion This study confirms Miller’s report, showing that the risk level can be estimated by age 2 in SCA-patients, a result potentially useful for prospective trials (HC/HSCT). Moreover, we show for the first time that the presence of a single Bantou haplotype has predictive value for severity in this cohort where its frequency is much higher than in the CSSCD cohort. Disclosures: Bernaudin: Novartis: Research Funding.
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Bushuev, V. V., I. V. Bushuev, and D. P. Zamyatina. "Oil market financialisation and Russian Government budget hedging." Strategic decisions and risk management, no. 6 (February 13, 2018): 10–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.17747/2078-8886-2017-6-10-14.
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Market financialisation radically changes the process of oil pricing and results in increase of price volatility. Normal contango situation in financial markets is favorable for government risk hedging. Optimal hedging strategy depends on derivatives’ market conditions, but the recommended contract is put/spread option. Budget hedging may be beneficial for Government as it permits to include oil price in the process of budget planning more accurately.
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Garcia-Alvarez, R., G. P. Liney, and A. W. Beavis. "Use of functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the treatment planning of Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy." Journal of Radiotherapy in Practice 3, no. 2 (March 2003): 55–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1460396903000025.
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Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) permits the non-invasive mapping of brain activation during some specific stimulation. This paper demonstrates the application of fMRI for including cortical activation into a treatment plan produced on our commercial treatment planning system (CMS XiO™). A patient with an intracranial tumour near the motor cortex was studied on a 1.5 Tesla GE Signa scanner. Images from conventional MRI, used to define the planning target volume (PTV), and from fMRI, used to define the organ at risk (OAR), were transferred to the treatment planning system. Three plans were generated with similar treatment intent and compared to assess the dose given to the OAR. These were: 1. a conventional plan; 2. an IMRT plan optimised to cover the PTV and; 3. an IMRT plan optimised to additionally spare the OAR. Results show that 21% of the motor cortex (OAR) receives 90% of the prescription dose when planned conventionally. This is reduced to 9% when IMRT is used, and to 2% when fMRI data is included. This novel approach can be extended to other functional areas of the brain, giving rise to a more conformal avoidance radiotherapy technique, which may help to preserve patient's quality of life.
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Cesare, M., J. C. Santamarina, C. J. Turkstra, and E. Vanmarcke. "Risk-based bridge management: optimization and inspection scheduling." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 21, no. 6 (December 1, 1994): 897–902. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/l94-095.
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Bridge management based on reliability methods permits the selection of the set of repair projects that minimizes the total network risk in a planning horizon. This approach, previously proposed by the authors, uses the Markovian model for the decay of structural components, evaluates the overall reliability of the bridge as a system, and computes risk by taking into consideration the consequences of reduced function. This paper presents important additional aspects of risk-based bridge management. First, genetic algorithms are proposed as an alternative optimization strategy; small and large bridge networks are solved, guiding the solution towards minimum risk. Second, Markovian transition matrices for deterioration and post-inspection Bayesian updating are combined to schedule inspections so that the overall reliability of the bridge network is maximized for a given inspection budget. Results from a simulation study using a real bridge network are presented and compared with current inspection practice. Key words: bridge management, reliability, risk assessment, optimization, inspection scheduling.
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Stoffel, M. "Impacts of climate change on natural hazards and land use in the Saas and Zermatt Valleys (Switzerland)." Geographica Helvetica 54, no. 4 (December 31, 1999): 224–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gh-54-224-1999.
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Abstract. The aim of Swiss land use planning is to guarantee an expedient and economical use ofthe land and an orderly development of the country. Therefore. land use planning has to designate areas suitable for optimal economic development. The possiblility of climate change poses a special challenge for land use planners. This paper examines the implications of environmental change resulting from climate change and anticipates new zones of conflict between existing and future land uses in the Saas and Zermatt Valleys (Valais. Switzerland). Differences between the «reul-time» decisions of planners and the possible development of nsks and changes predicted by scientists are key factors examined in this paper. Furthermore, this paper investigates the legal implications of land use planning under conditions of climatic uncertainty. Particular emphasis is given lo the various ways natural dangers can be taken into account at the levels of the «cantonal» general plan, communal zoning plan and the issueing of building permits. Finally, this paper recommends the establishmenl of «buller areas» or zones of potential high risk as precautionary measures and Highlights the fundamental necessit) of risk communication for natural hazard control.
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Mines, Aine, Darren Beckstrand, Paul D. Thompson, Bret Boundy, Scott Helm, and Jeff Jackson. "Estimating Event Likelihood for Rock Slope Assets on Transportation Networks." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2672, no. 52 (June 13, 2018): 316–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198118777622.
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Recent federal regulations require states to develop risk-based transportation asset management (TAM) plans for bridge and pavement assets. These requirements are making TAM principles, and their related benefits and tools, familiar to a variety of sections within Departments of Transportation (DOTs) and prompting select DOTs to apply them to select geotechnical assets. The Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) recently completed a multi-year project to update its previous Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) into a Rock slope Asset Management Program (RAMP), incorporating some of these new tools. Incorporating risk into decision-making is important, but risk posed by deteriorating geotechnical assets is difficult for departments to quantify. Adverse event data are often collected in an ad-hoc fashion, with only the worst events attracting attention. As part of the RAMP project, an MDT-administered adverse event survey was combined with a statewide dataset of detailed rock slope assessments. These data were used to develop initial relationships between rock slope condition and adverse event likelihood per unit area of rock slope face. Annual likelihood of both service disrupting events and accidents was calculated for each rock slope in MDT’s database and used to identify high-risk corridors. Using established AASHTO methods, event likelihood was combined with traffic and detour data, generating site-specific estimates of annual safety and mobility risks, expressed in dollars, which can be incorporated into benefit/cost tools at various planning levels and permits dollar-to-dollar comparisons of the risks posed by rock slope assets to other actively managed assets.