Academic literature on the topic 'Physical climate risks'
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Journal articles on the topic "Physical climate risks"
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Swart, Rob. "Assessing physical climate risks for investments: A risky promise." Climate Services 14 (April 2019): 15–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2019.04.001.
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Lepore, Caterina. "Global Economic Impacts of Physical Climate Risks." IMF Working Papers 2023, no. 183 (September 2023): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9798400254147.001.
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Cortina, Magdalena, and Carlos Madeira. "Exposures to climate change's physical risks in Chile." Latin American Journal of Central Banking 4, no. 2 (June 2023): 100090. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.latcb.2023.100090.
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EDITH GINGLINGER. "Climate risk and finance." Bankers, Markets & Investors 160, no. 1 (June 4, 2020): 44–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.54695/bmi.160.10.
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Climate risks, whether physical risks or transition risks, represent an increasingly important issue for companies, bankers and institutional investors. This article provides a review of the recent literature on the relationship between climate risks and finance. It examines institutional investors’ perceptions of climate risks and reports findings on the impact of climate risks on the value of real estate, debt and equity.
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COURQUIN, VALENTIN. "Impacts of the Evolution of Physical Climate Risks on European Business Activities: the case of construction sector." Bankers, Markets & Investors 178, no. 3 (December 1, 2024): 0025. https://doi.org/10.54695/bmi.178.0025.
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Nowadays, the constant increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, attributed to climate change, is exerting growing pressure on companies across various sectors. These businesses are becoming increasingly vulnerable to diverse physical climate risks. Changes in regulatory frameworks regarding the identification, management, and communication of climate risks are further encouraging companies to adopt a proactive approach in assessing these risks. This study, employing an innovative methodology, demonstrates how risk management professionals can leverage currently available climate data to identify climate risks that have the most impact on their performance indicators. We illustrate this methodology by applying it to the construction production sector in France.
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Agarwala, Matthew, Matt Burke, Patrycja Klusak, Kamiar Mohaddes, Ulrich Volz, and Dimitri Zenghelis. "CLIMATE CHANGE AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES." National Institute Economic Review 258 (2021): 28–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.37.
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Both the physical and transition-related impacts of climate change pose substantial macroeconomic risks. Yet, markets still lack credible estimates of how climate change will affect debt sustainability, sovereign creditworthiness and the public finances of major economies. We present a taxonomy for tracing the physical and transition impacts of climate change through to impacts on sovereign risk. We then apply the taxonomy to the UK’s potential transition to net zero. Meeting internationally agreed climate targets will require an unprecedented structural transformation of the global economy over the next two or three decades. The changing landscape of risks warrants new risk management and hedging strategies to contain climate risk and minimise the impact of asset stranding and asset devaluation. Yet, conditional on action being taken early, the opportunities from managing a net zero transition would substantially outweigh the costs.
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Downes, Stephanie M., Amy Steel, Enrico Favaro, and Michael Wood. "Disruption and damages: climate-related risks to the Australian oil and gas sector." APPEA Journal 61, no. 2 (2021): 395. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/aj20145.
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The oil and gas (O&G) sector has made significant commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by decarbonising operations and transitioning portfolios to lower-carbon products. However, assessing the impacts of physical climate risks on assets and value chains has remained a lower priority, despite climate change consistently rated the highest risk to the global economy. Here we present selected case studies of the most relevant physical climate risks that impact key infrastructure across the O&G sector, now and in the future, with and without global abatement (that is, in high and low emissions scenarios). We focus on physical climate risks including sea level rise impacts on an offshore processing region, flooding and drought impacts in an onshore processing region, and highlight supply chain impacts on shipping and ports due to climate extremes such as cyclones. These risks all have the potential to have significant and adverse impacts on Australia’s O&G sector and have a direct impact on the ability of the sector to transition to a low-carbon future. We conclude with an overview of why and how companies should undertake climate scenario analysis for physical risks, in alignment with the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures.
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Ewald, Christian Oliver, Chuyao Huang, and Yuyu Ren. "On the Effects of Physical Climate Risks on the Chinese Energy Sector." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 17, no. 10 (October 9, 2024): 458. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17100458.
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We examine the impact of physical climate risks on energy markets in China, distinguishing between traditional energy and new energy stock markets, and the energy commodity market, utilizing a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-VAR). Specifically, we investigate the dynamic effects of five specific subtypes of physical climate risks, namely waterlogging by rain, drought, typhoon, cryogenic freezing, and high temperature, on WTI oil prices and coal prices. The findings reveal that these physical climate risks exhibit time-varying similar effects on the returns of traditional energy and new energy stocks, but heterogeneous effects on the returns of WTI oil prices and coal prices. Finally, we categorize and examine the impact of both acute and chronic physical risks on the energy commodity market.
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Harker, Callan, Maureen Hassall, Paul Lant, Nikodem Rybak, and Paul Dargusch. "What Can Machine Learning Teach Us about Australian Climate Risk Disclosures?" Sustainability 14, no. 16 (August 12, 2022): 10000. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su141610000.
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There seems to be no agreed taxonomy for climate-related risks. The information in firms’ climate risk disclosures represents a new resource for identifying the priorities and strategies of Australian companies’ management of climate risk. This research surveys 839 companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange for the presence of climate risk disclosures, identifying 201 disclosures on climate risk. The types of climate risks and the risk management strategies were extracted and evaluated using machine learning. The analysis revealed that Australian firms are focused on acute physical climate risks, followed by market and regulatory risks. The predominant management strategy for these risks was to use a risk reduction approach, rather than avoiding or transferring risk. The analysis showed that key Australian industry sectors, such as materials, banking, insurance, and energy are focusing on different mixtures of risk types, but they are all primarily managing risks through risk-reduction strategies. An underlying driver of climate risk disclosure was composed of the financial implications of climate risk, particularly with respect to acute physical risks. The research showed that emission reductions represent a primary consideration for Australian firms in their disclosures identifying how they are responding to climate risk. Further research using machine learning to evaluate climate risk disclosure should focus on analysing entire climate risk reports for key topics and trends over time.
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Putri, Wika Harisa, Irfan Bakhtiar, and Ni Luh Ayounik Mahasabha. "Mitigating physical climate risks: ESG budgeting approaches as risk boundaries for companies." BIO Web of Conferences 155 (2025): 08005. https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202515508005.
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Physical climate risks are currently an urgent concern for companies. Many still consider this risk part of operational risk and manage it by transferring it to third parties. However, this method is still used to calculate the potential loss of assets due to physical climate risks. This paper explores ongoing literature and publications to address mitigating physical climate risk, and finds that companies increasingly turn to ESG budgeting approaches as a more comprehensive tool for managing direct and indirect physical climate risks. This study aims to synthesize the current literature and present a definition of ESG budgeting. This article will explore the various concerns regarding ESG budgeting and provide a technical overview of how companies manage and disclose these risks in their corporate statements. As a conceptual paper, no data was collected to provide empirical evidence to support ESG budgeting practices; instead, the concept of ESG-related cost or sustainable budget tagging was described. Technical steps are needed by companies, especially for those who still understand ESG in the initial phase. Apart from concerns about budget allocations that will increase, doubts that ESG spending will directly impact company financial performance are strong in implementing ESG in companies. This exploration found that the clear concept of ESG budgeting or ESG budget tagging is still rare and needs advanced discussion. A supportive ecosystem, a strong tone from the top and adequate ESG literacy are needed to ensure companies' readiness to mitigate physical climate risks.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Physical climate risks"
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Betta, Gilberto <1996>. "Climate change and banks: the trade off between transition and physical risks." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/21158.
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Le, Guenedal Théo. "Financial Modeling of Climate-related Risks." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2022. http://www.theses.fr/2022IPPAG009.
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Ce projet de recherche est consacré à l'estimation des risques financiers liés au changement climatique. Au-delà des applications et des résultats quantitatifs, les chapitres de cette thèse ont pour principal objectif d'apporter des méthodologies générales utilisables par les praticiens. Le premier chapitre propose une méthode d'évaluation bottom-up du risque de transition adjointe aux modèles de risque classiques. Cette approche du risque opérationnel par les coûts engendrés par une taxe potentielle limite l'impact aux secteurs directement polluants, ce qui amène au deuxième chapitre, introduisant les tables d'entrée-sorties pour appréhender les effets indirects du risque de transition dans la chaîne d'approvisionnement. Ces approches offrent une structure statique permettant d'évaluer le risque dans un scénario donné, mais pas de déterminer le prix des obligations en considérant des scénarios hétérogènes et leur probabilité de réalisation. Pour ce faire, le troisième chapitre propose un modèle de pricing intégrant une approche bayésienne dans la mise à jours des probabilités de scénarios sur la base des sauts observés dans les mécanismes de tarification du carbone. Enfin, le dernier chapitre propose une méthodologie Monte-Carlo de simulation de dommages annuels causées par des cyclones tropicaux. La conversion des données climatiques brutes en base de données synthétique de sinistres est réalisée en couplant des relations statistiques et thermodynamiques. L'exposition des actifs physiques, les dynamiques des facteurs socio-économiques, les densités de populations locales et les vulnérabilités spécifiques aux différentes régions du monde sont empruntés à différents segments de la littérature. Ils sont combinés afin d'obtenir un modèle complet du triptyque classique nécessaire à l'étude des risques physiques : 'intensité' x 'exposition' x 'vulnérabilité' généralisable et homogène sur l'ensemble des pays. Le signal résultant peut ensuite être inclus simplement dans des modèles de risque de crédit assimilant les dommages annualisés à de la dette additionnelleThis research project aims at estimating financial risks related to climate change. Beyond the applications and quantitative findings, the main objective of the chapters of this thesis is to provide a structural and methodological framework that is generalizable, in order to facilitate their integration by practitioners. The first chapter proposes a bottom-up measure of transition risk, which can be incorporated with classical risk models (Merton or credit risk model). This cost-based approach is limited to the directly polluting sectors, which leads to the second chapter, which allows for the diffusion of transition risk through the value chain. These approaches offer a static structure that allows for a fixed scenario stress-test but not for pricing the bonds by considering heterogeneous scenarios and the probability of realization. To this end, chapter three proposes a pricing model that integrates a Bayesian approach in updating scenario probabilities based on observed jumps in carbon pricing mechanisms. Finally, the last chapter proposes a Monte-Carlo methodology for simulating annual damages caused by tropical cyclones. The conversion of raw climatic data into a synthetic database of losses is achieved by coupling statistical and thermodynamic relationships. The exposure of physical assets, the dynamics of socio-economic factors, local population densities and specific vulnerabilities in different regions of the world are borrowed from different segments of the literature, and combined to obtain a complete model of the classical triptych necessary for the study of physical hazards: hazard intensity x exposure x vulnerability generalizable and homogeneous across countries. The resulting signal can then be simply included in credit risk models equating annualized damages with additional debt
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Mundy, Daniel Esteban Cooper. "Sustainable finance and climate change in the context of the insurance sector of Portugal." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20926.
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Mestrado em Actuarial ScienceEste estudo visa avaliar os riscos relacionados com as alterações climáticas em diferentes cenários, principalmente os riscos de se tornar num sistema financeiro sustentável, impulsionado pelo acordo de Paris, metas europeias e agendas estratégicas locais. Bem como avaliar a limitação da informação histórica para modelar a materialização das alterações climáticas em Portugal. Além disso, este estudo tem como objetivo oferecer um amplo panorama da revisão da literatura sobre riscos relacionados ao clima sob diferentes perspectivas e estudos. De facto, este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar, a partir de uma estrutura de trabalho harmonizada, a materialização dos riscos relacionados as alterações climáticas, com base em esforços coordenados entre governos, supervisores e bancos centrais. Em particular, a natureza dos riscos relacionados as alterações climáticas abrange ativos e passivos numa seguradora, por esta razão, este estudo apresenta benchmarks para monitorar os diferentes componentes da cadeia de valor de uma seguradora e como esses benchmarks podem interagir com os resultados deste estudo. No geral, este estudo foi desenvolvido sob uma perspectiva combinada, usando teoria financeira moderna, avaliação da disponibilidade das informações, opiniões de especialistas macroeconômicos, modelos macroeconômicos locais, metodologias de avaliação de ativos, ponto de vista da ciência atuarial e o uso de cenários com base de dados público.
This study seeks to evaluate climate-related risks under different scenarios, mainly the risks of turning into a sustainable financial system, driven by the Paris agreement, European targets and local strategic agendas. As well as to evaluate the limitation of the historical information to model the materialization of climate changes in Portugal. Furthermore, this study has the objective to offer a broad overview of literature review on climate-related risks from different perspectives and studies. In fact, this study aims to assess, from a harmonized framework, the materialization of climate-related risks, based on coordinated efforts among governments, supervisors and central banks. In particular, the nature of climate-related risks embraces assets and liabilities in an insurance company, for this reason, this study introduces benchmarks to monitor the different components of an insurer's value chain and how these benchmarks might interact with the findings of this study. Overall, this study was developed under a combined perspective, mixing modern financial theory, information availability assessment, macroeconomic experts' opinions, local macroeconomic models, assets valuation methodologies, actuarial science perspective and scenarios with a widely public database.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Courquin, Valentin. "Caractérisation, impacts, et gestion de la variabilité climatique sur l'activité des entreprises européennes." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Paris, ENSAM, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024ENAME059.
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Dans un contexte de durcissement des réglementations, les entreprises européennes sont confrontées à des défis croissants concernant la gestion des risques climatiques physiques. La directive CSRD exige désormais des entreprises qu’elles évaluent l'impact de ces risques sur leurs activités, rendant indispensables des solutions précises et exploitables. Cette thèse propose de répondre à ces exigences en développant un Diagnostic de Vulnérabilité Climatique (DVC), destiné à évaluer et quantifier les risques climatiques physiques pour chaque actif géolocalisé d'une entreprise. La méthodologie s'appuie sur l'analyse de données climatiques et le calcul d'indicateurs climatiques en utilisant les modèles de réanalyses et de projections climatiques les plus récents. Ces indicateurs permettent d'élaborer des métriques spécifiques, telles que les anomalies et les accélérations climatiques, afin d’évaluer plus précisément l'impact des risques climatiques physiques. Le DVC constitue ainsi un outil clé pour la conception de stratégies d'adaptation aux risques climatiques, avec une attention particulière portée aux risques d'inondationIn the context of tightening regulations, European companies are facing increasing challenges in managing physical climate risks. The CSRD directive now requires businesses to assess the impact of these risks on their operations, making precise and actionable solutions essential. This thesis aims to address these requirements by developing a Climate Vulnerability Assessment (DVC), designed to evaluate and quantify physical climate risks for each geolocated asset of a company. The methodology is based on the analysis of climate data and the calculation of climate indicators using the latest reanalysis models and climate projections. These indicators enable the development of specific metrics, such as climate anomalies and accelerations, to more accurately assess the impact of physical climate risks. The DVC thus serves as a key tool for designing adaptation strategies to climate risks, with a particular focus on flood risks
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Leboullenger, Déborah. "Essais sur la transition énergétique : enjeux, valorisation, financement et risques." Thesis, Paris 10, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA100065/document.
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Cette thèse porte sur La question du financement de la transition énergétique bas-carbone et le rôle du secteur financier et bancaire dans la réussite des objectifs climatiques internationaux. Les enjeux de la transition énergétique pour le secteur financier sont triples. Il faut d’abord comprendre la nécessité d’adopter une analyse différenciée de la consommation énergétique des ménages, en particulier celle liée à leur logement, dans la recherche d’adéquation des objectifs macroéconomiques avec ceux des arbitrages financiers et économiques individuels. Le premier chapitre conduit une analyse par typologie des dépenses énergétiques des ménages et propose une segmentation des comportements microéconomiques des acteurs et du marché de la transition énergétique dans le logement. Il faut ensuite trouver une manière de valoriser les investissements privés dans la transition énergétique, encore aujourd’hui difficiles à massifier notamment lorsqu’il est question de la performance énergétique du logement. Le chapitre 2 s’emploie à déployer un modèle issu d’une technique d’optimisation par les fonctions frontières, pour rendre compte de la présence d’une valeur verte sur un marché local du logement privé en France. Enfin il s’agit d’intégrer les multiples risques liés au changement climatique au sein de la cartographie des risques finaux (spécifiques, systématiques et systémiques) qui pèsent sur les institutions financières, dans l’évaluation de leur activité (la gestion des flux financiers) mais aussi dans l’évaluation du profil de risque de leur bilan. Les intermédiaires financiers mais également les institutions qui les régulent ont un rôle clé à jouer dans l’établissement d’une valeur sociale du carbone endogène aux marchés financiers (chapitre 3)This thesis deals with the main challenges that we need to address to foster the private financing of a low-carbon energy transition. A massive amount of investment in low carbon assets is needed and most of the effort must come from final energy consumers such as households. Their ability as well as the ability of the financial intermediation institutions (that is banks in Europe) to valorise low-carbon investments and risk profile is the key for a successful low-carbon energy transition in France and in every industrialized country. These researches focus more particularly on the housing sector which represents 44% of the final energy consumption and 21% of the total greenhouses gases emissions in France. The first chapter of this thesis takes the viewpoint that only a disaggregated approach can actually permit macroeconomic and nationwide objectives to reduce final energy consumption match microeconomic arbitrages regarding energy spending in the private residential housing sector. Using segmentation and decision tree growing econometric techniques, the chapter proposes a typology of energy spending and a segmentation analysis and of the energy transition “market” in the housing sector. The second chapter uses frontier functions estimation technique on a local French private housing market to determine if selling prices contain a “Green Property Value”. An empirical analysis is then conducted to determine if this value can offset the upfront cost of energy retrofit. The last chapter takes the prism of the financial institutions. It attempts a first evaluation of the impact and exposition to climate related risks, those are physical, transition, liability and systemic risks, on the banking system and its prudential regulation framework
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Rojas, Rueda David 1979. "Transportation, Air Pollution And Physical ActivitieS ; an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies (TAPAS)." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/127112.
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Introduction
Interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change
can involve co-benefits of health, with special active transportation policies
(including walking, cycling and travelling by public transport) having the
potential to provide both co-benefits to environmental and public health.
Methods
A health impact assessment approach has been performed using a quantitative
model for estimating the health impacts of different active transportation policies
in urban areas.
Result
We have quantified the impacts of two risk factors, air pollution and traffic
accidents, as well as the protective effect of physical activity. In total, the
benefits of physical activity exceed the risks associated with active transport
policies.
Conclusions
Active transportation policies can produce substantial benefits for public health,
which are mainly associated with increased levels of physical activity.Introducción Las intervenciones para reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y cambio climático, pueden conllevar co-beneficios para la salud. En especial las políticas de transporte activo (caminar, viajar en bicicletas o en transporte público) pueden tener la capacidad de proveer beneficios para el medioambiente y la salud. Métodos Mediante el abordaje de la evaluación de impactos en salud se ha utilizado una modelo cuantitativo par estimar los impactos en salud de diferentes intervenciones o políticas de transporte activo, en áreas urbanas. Resultado Se cuantificaron los impactos de dos factores de riesgo, la contaminación del aire y los accidentes de tráfico. Se cuantifico además el efecto protector de la actividad física. En conjunto los beneficios de la actividad física superaron a los riesgos asociados con las políticas de transporte activo. Conclusiones Las políticas de transporte activo pueden producir grandes beneficios para la salud de la población. Estos beneficios están asociados principalmente con el incremento en los niveles de la actividad física.
Introducció Les intervencions per reduir les emissions de gasos d'efecte hivernacle i canvi climàtic, poden implicar beneficis per a la salut. Especialment les polítiques de transport actiu (caminar, viatjar en bicicletes o en transport públic) poden tenir la capacitat de proveir beneficis per al medi ambient i la salut. Mètodes Mitjançant l'abordatge de l'avaluació d'impactes en salut s'ha utilitzat una model quantitatiu per estimar els impactes en salut de diferents intervencions o polítiques de transport actiu en àrees urbanes. Resultat Es van quantificar els impactes de dos factors de risc, la contaminació de l'aire i els accidents de trànsit. Es va quantificar a més l'efecte protector de l'activitat física. En conjunt els beneficis de l'activitat física superar els riscos associats amb les polítiques de transport actiu. Conclusions Les polítiques de transport actiu poden produir grans beneficis per a la salut de la població. Aquests beneficis estan associats principalment amb l’incremento en els nivells de l'activitat física.
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Mohammad, Mehdee. "Adaptation to climate change through disaster risk reduction in Bangladesh : community engagement in local level intervention." Thesis, Northumbria University, 2016. http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/36003/.
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A common platform for both disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) has been sought around the world to reduce human vulnerability, enhance adaptive capacity and achieve other contemporary global targets. This policy framework at global and national level creates a challenge for local level implementation: climate change is a global risk predicted by scientists whereas disaster vulnerability is experienced by local people. To consider these circumstances, the thesis examines how DRR and CCA can be integrated at local level and what kind of governance and institutions are needed to ensure community participation in the whole process of local development. In order to address the research question, the thesis focuses on four inter-related themes: (i) redefining social vulnerability in a changing environment; (ii) understanding local knowledge, experiences and practices in terms of coping with climate induced disasters; (iii) investigating the DRR and CCA conundrum of implementing national policies at local level; and (iv) exploring the transformation of socio-cultural landscape of rural Bangladesh through external interventions at local level in a DRR–CCA context. The study has gone through an in-depth empirical data analysis of DRR and CCA processes both in flood prone Jamuna river basin and cyclone prone coastal areas in Bangladesh. Fieldwork involved qualitative approaches and methods, and some use of quantitative survey method; including 29 semi-structured in-depth interviews, varied participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools applied in nine focus group discussions (FGDs) and a questionnaire survey conducted in three selected study villages. Respondents included local people, particularly disaster survivors, local level practitioners, national level professionals formally linked to disaster and climate issues and academics. The findings of the thesis show that local knowledge and practice, particularly through recent experiences of environmental crisis help communities to adapt to climate related disaster risks and that the survivors of floods have more distinct coping and adaptive capacity than those of cyclones. The research found that disaster management in Bangladesh is strong up to local level and that recent government and nongovernmental initiatives for DRR and CCA assist communities coping with extreme events. However, the whole system often fails to identify and understand localised disaster and climatic risks due to a lack of effective community inclusiveness in decision-making processes. The study argues that a ‘whole-of-society’ approach should be a pervasive aspect of internal and external interventions aiming to implement more integrated DRR–CCA at local level.
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Bovin, Mattias. "Förutsättningar för skred i Huddinge kommun idag och i ett framtida klimat." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK), 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-77486.
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It is imperative to provide more information regarding changed conditions resulting landslide events in a future climate. The aim of this thesis is to assess landslide susceptibility in Huddinge Municipality in middle Sweden. The main purpose is to produce a map, to visualize landslide susceptible areas, and to integrate the result with changes in physical factors such as climate change. Also, the thesis aims to analyze anthropogenic factors such as changes in land use and an increasing population in Huddinge Municipality. Methods used are GIS-analyses, interviews with staff of Huddinge Municipality, and field observations. The GIS-analysis solely aims to provide areas which are landslide susceptible in changed conditions in the future. Interviews with municipality employees provided data about population growth and future land use of Huddinge. In addition to the GIS analysis and the interviews, field observations and photo documentations were carried out to validate the GIS-results and to investigate if slopes in Huddinge are geomorphic active. It can be concluded that there are slopes in Huddinge Municipality which are landslide susceptible today and in a future climate. It can not be excluded that the landslide frequency will increase due to climate change because of increasing days with intense rainfall and fluctuations in the groundwater table. Most vulnerable areas are the ones located in areas which are both landslide susceptible, and where a growing population is predicted. In order to minimize the risk and vulnerability, Huddinge Municipality either cooperates with external companies or scientific institutions, or uses technical solutions to stabilize clay soils. Finally, the GIS-analysis used in this thesis in Huddinge Municipality is applicable to any other geographical areas in Sweden or elsewhere.Enligt Hearn och Hart (2011) utgör geomorfologiska processer en allt större risk för våra samhällen globalt. Risken ökar när människan expanderar och utvecklar bebyggelse och infrastruktur i redan sårbara områden. Förändringar i markanvändning och avrinningsområden innebär förutsättningar för att till exempel skred kan utlösas. Med en ökad befolkning och investering i dyrbar infrastruktur samt bebyggelse, ökar sårbarheten och därmed risken för att påverkas. I Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningens slutbetänkande (2007:60) rapporteras det att de förväntande effekterna på grund av klimatförändringarna kan skapa stora påfrestningar för samhället och leda till betydande effekter på naturmiljön. Idag utgör skred den sjunde mest dödliga naturliga extremhändelsen globalt sett och har årligen krävt 800 till 1000 människoliv under de senaste 20 åren (Borgatti & Soldati, 2010). För att reducera antal dödsfall och förstörd egendom samt infrastruktur har GIS fått en viktig roll inom fysisk planering, kartering av riskområden och inom markutveckling (Huabin et al., 2005). Med hjälp av olika metoder och tillämpningar baserat på naturgeografiska variabler som förutsätter att skred kan utlösas så kan GIS användas som ett stöd vid förebyggande arbete. Enligt Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen (2007:60) är det grundläggande med en ökad kunskap om förändrade förutsättningar för erosion, ras och skred i ett framtida klimat. Därför är syftet med arbetet att framställa en karta med hjälp av GIS över områden där det finns förutsättningar för att skred kan utlösas, och att problematisera samt analysera resultatet med förändrade naturgeografiska faktorer som klimatförändringarnas förväntade inverkan. Den här metodiken anses även vara tillämpar på andra platser globalt. Slutligen syftar arbetet även till att undersöka antropogena faktorer som utbyggnadsplanering, förändrad markanvändning och ökat befolkningstryck i Huddinge kommun. GIS-analysen i uppsatsen syftar till att belysa områden med förutsättningar för skred. Enligt Huabin et al. (2005) finns det två faktorgrupper som studeras vid GIS-analyser för skred: inre faktorer som geologiska förhållanden och sluttningsstrukturer, och yttre faktorer, som antropogen verksamhet eller nederbörd. Vid kartering av skredrisk finns det två tillvägagångssätt: undersöka sluttningars känslighet och fastställa sannolikheten för utlösande faktorer. Det här arbetet kommer att fokusera på den första metoden, nämligen att undersöka var och vilka sluttningar som är känsliga för yttre faktorer som kan påverka deras stabilitet och utlösa skred. För att införskaffa primärdata om Huddinge kommuns planer för utveckling och framtida markanvändning används intervjuer med anställda personer på kommunen. Som komplement till GIS-analysen och intervjuer utförs även fältobservationer för att undersöka ifall det finns områden som visar att lerjordarna i Huddinge är geomorfologiskt aktiva. Det finns förutsättningar för skred i Huddinge kommun idag och i ett framtida klimat. Den främsta anledningen är de djupa och plastiska lerorna samt Huddinges varierade topografi. Vare sig skred kommer att utlösas eller ej beror på utlösande faktorer som ökat antal skyfall, bebyggelse eller deponi av material. Det är troligt att skredfrekvensen kommer att öka i ett framtida klimat på grund av ökat antal utlösande faktorer. De områden som anses vara sårbara idag och i ett framtida klimat är de kommundelar där det finns förutsättningar för skred och där det förutspås en ökad befolkning. Sjödalen-Fullersta är den kommundel som anses vara mest sårbar för skred i ett framtida klimat. För att minska sårbarheten bedriver Huddinge kommun ett förebyggande arbete dels med hjälp av konsulter som ger förslag om vilka områden som ska bebyggas eller inte, och dels med hjälp av tekniska lösningar som kalkcementering.
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Issa, Toni. "Skogsbränder, en fara eller icke fara? : En studie om framtidens skogsbränder, dess konsekvenser och bekämpning." Thesis, Karlstads universitet, Institutionen för sociala och psykologiska studier (from 2013), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-78063.
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In 2018, forest fires occurred in Sweden, which put high pressure on rescue services and society. Several parts of the country were subject to a fire ban. The purpose of the document study is to investigate whether forest fires could become a continuous danger for municipalities and their inhabitants in the future. The study also strives to investigate measures to combat forest fires and whether these measures are adequate. In order to work in the right direction and not lose course, three questions were asked, "What patterns do we see overtime regarding forest fires?", "What measures have been taken to combat forest fires?" and "Are measures against forest fires sufficient?". These issues helped to select research evidence and the right empirical material.With critical realism as a scientific approach, the problems with forest fires were highlighted and research work started. By applying applied geography / forest geography, its causes and risks could be studied. With the mapping / mapping, the potential forest fire risk could be mapped in the future. Following a survey of potential forest fire risk in the future, it turned out that Skåne risks being most affected by forest fires due to changing climate in the region. This made the study limited to Skåne. The County Administrative Board of Skåne's risk and vulnerability analysis for 2014 and the Land use plan for Östra Göinge became the documents that were analyzed in this document study. By analyzing the risk and vulnerability analysis, it explains what risks are considered to be a potential danger, how the danger is mitigated and how resources and measures are prioritized. In the overview plan we can see if the forest fire risk was taken into account and if so how. This study shows that the risk of forest fires will increase in the future due to. changing weather conditions. It also shows that risk and vulnerability analysis do not take into account the change, the increased risk and lack a long-term perspective on risk and vulnerability. The study also shows that information on what are forest fire influencing factors such as weather, vegetation and topography are not taken into account. Land use plans need to pay more attention to forest fire risk and report measures to combat it. Keywords: Forest fire, Risk, Fire risk, Physical planning, Risk analysis2018 förekom skogsbränder i Sverige vilket satte hög press på räddningstjänst och samhället. Flera delar av landet rådde eldningsförbud. Syftet med dokumentstudien är att undersöka om skogsbränderna kan komma att bli en kontinuerlig fara för kommuner och dess invånare i framtiden. Studien strävar även efter att undersöka åtgärder för bekämpning av skogsbränder samt om dessa åtgärder är tillräckliga. För att arbeta mot rätt riktning och inte tappa kurs sattes tre frågeställningar, ”Vilka mönster ser vi övertid gällande skogsbränder?”, ”Vilka åtgärder har vidtagits för att bekämpa skogsbränder?” och ”Är åtgärder mot skogsbränder tillräckliga?”. Dessa frågeställningar hjälpte till med att välja forskningsunderlag och rätt empiriskt material. Med kritisk realism som vetenskapligt angreppssätt uppmärksammades problematiken med skogsbränder och forskningsarbetet påbörjades. Genom att tillämpa applied geography/tillämpad geography kunde skogsbränder, dess orsaker och risker studeras. Med mapping/kartläggning kunde den potentiella skogsbrandsrisken i framtiden kartläggas. Efter kartläggning av potentiell skogsbrandsrisk i framtiden visade det sig att Skåne riskerar att drabbas mest av skogsbränder pga. förändrat klimat i regionen. Detta gjorde att studien avgränsades till Skåne. Länsstyrelsen Skånes risk- och sårbarhetsanalys för 2014 och Översiktsplan för Östra Göinge blev dokumenten som analyserades i denna dokumentstudie. Genom att analysera risk- och sårbarhetsanalysen, förklaras vilka risker som bedöms vara en potentiell fara, hur faran motarbetas samt hur resurser och åtgärder prioriteras. I översiktsplanen kan vi se om skogsbrandsrisken beaktats och i så fall hur. Denna studie påvisar att risken för skogsbränder kommer att öka i framtiden pga. förändrade väderförhållanden. Den visar även att risk- och sårbarhetsanalys inte beaktar förändringen, den ökade risken samt saknar ett långsiktigt perspektiv på risk och sårbarhet. Studien visar även att information om vad som är skogsbrandspåverkande faktorer som väder, vegetation och topografi inte beaktas. Översiktsplaner behöver uppmärksamma skogsbrandsrisken mer och redovisa åtgärder för att bekämpa den. Nyckelord: Skogsbrand, Risk, Brandrisk, Fysisk planering, Riskanalys
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Maina, Sandra. "Adaptation Preferences and Responses to Sea Level Rise and Land Loss Risk in Southern Louisiana: a Survey-based Analysis." FIU Digital Commons, 2014. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1424.
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Currently, southern Louisiana faces extreme land loss that could reach an alarming rate of about one football sized swath of land every hour. The combined effect of land subsidence and predicted sea level rise threaten the culture and livelihood of the residents living in this region. As the most vulnerable coastal population in Louisiana, the communities of south Terrebonne Parish are called to adapt by accommodating, protecting, or retreating from the impacts of climate change. For effective preparation planning, the state of Louisiana needs to 1) understand the adaptation preferences and responses of these residents and 2) involve these vulnerable communities in adaptation related decision making. The study uses a survey-based methodology to analyze current adaptation preferences. Findings suggest that protection is the preferred adaptation response. The present study additionally uses participatory techniques to develop a land loss awareness mobile application to illustrate the importance and benefits of community collaboration.
Books on the topic "Physical climate risks"
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Cell, Bangladesh Climate Change. Economic modeling of climate change adaptation needs for physical infrastructures in Bangladesh. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Climate Change Cell, Dept. of Environment, Ministry of Environment and Forests, 2009.
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Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta Maria. Ship and Offshore Structure Design in Climate Change Perspective. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013.
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Lucien, Duckstein, Parent E. 1957-, and NATO Advanced Study Institute on "Engineering Risk in Natural Resources Management with Special References to Hydrosystems under Changes of Physical and Climatic Environment" (1993 : Deauville, France), eds. Engineering risk in natural resources management: With special references to hydrosystems under changes of physical or climatic environment. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1994.
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Sene, Kevin. Flash Floods: Forecasting and Warning. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2013.
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Sene, Kevin. Flash floods: Forecasting and warning. Dordrecht: Springer, 2013.
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Double Trouble? Assessing Climate Physical and Transition Risks for the Moroccan Banking Sector. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/41405.
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Reynolds, Jesse L. Solar Climate Engineering, Law, and Regulation. Edited by Roger Brownsword, Eloise Scotford, and Karen Yeung. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199680832.013.71.
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Solar climate engineering—intentional modification of the planet’s reflectivity—is coming under increasing consideration as a means to counter climate change. At present, it offers the possibility of greatly reducing climate risks, but would pose physical and social risks of its own. This chapter offers an introduction to solar climate engineering, and explores its potential, risks, and legal and regulatory challenges. It also contextualizes these proposals with respect to other emerging technologies and the broader socio-political milieu. The chapter discusses the contours of existing and potential regulation, particularly at the international level. These aspects include regulatory rationales, diverse characteristics of proposed regulatory regimes, difficulties in defining the regulatory target, and the management of uncertainty through precaution. The chapter closes with suggested future research directions in the law and regulation of solar climate engineering.
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Climate Change Impact: Communities at Risk. ReferencePoint Press, Incorporated, 2024.
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Georgiadis, Teodoro. Urban Climate and Risk. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190676889.013.11.
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This work reports on the main physical processes that arise in the environment of the megacity from the “urban metabolism”—the complex interactions of the climate with the activities performed in the city and its built structure and texture—as well as on associated large-scale processes that generate hazards for the megacity’s inhabitants. It is estimated that in a few decades most of the world’s population will live in urban centers. Both the growth of megacities and climate change will increase the vulnerability of huge sectors of the population to climatic consequences of the urban metabolism. These include urban heat islands, pollution, and extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods. Developing policies to mitigate these threats will require integrating scientific knowledge with management skills, communication among cities about effective approaches, and taking into account residents’ needs for health and the capacity to live safely.
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Georgiadis, Teodoro. Urban Climate and Risk. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190699420.013.11.
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This work reports on the main physical processes that arise in the environment of the megacity from the “urban metabolism”—the complex interactions of the climate with the activities performed in the city and its built structure and texture—as well as on associated large-scale processes that generate hazards for the megacity’s inhabitants. It is estimated that in a few decades most of the world’s population will live in urban centers. Both the growth of megacities and climate change will increase the vulnerability of huge sectors of the population to climatic consequences of the urban metabolism. These include urban heat islands, pollution, and extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods. Developing policies to mitigate these threats will require integrating scientific knowledge with management skills, communication among cities about effective approaches, and taking into account residents’ needs for health and the capacity to live safely.
Book chapters on the topic "Physical climate risks"
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Sanderson, Hans, and Thomas Stridsland. "Cascading Transitional Climate Risks in the Private Sector—Risks and Opportunities." In Springer Climate, 179–86. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4_21.
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AbstractAdaptation to climate change poses two recognized significant types of risks to the private sector; (1) physical risks and (2) transitional risks. As markets respond to climate-related policies and shifting demands from customers and investors, opportunities as well as risks are presented. A very recent and important policy development is the European Green Deal suggesting the EU to reduce its emissions from 40 to 55% by 2030, and aiming to enable European countries to meet their Paris Agreement targets. The shift required for this transition highlights the challenges in terms of adapting business models and decision-making tools, while also providing opportunities for innovation and development in the private sector. In order to reach Paris Agreement goals, science-based targets need to be adopted to measure and manage emissions, specifically focussing on Scope 3 emissions embedded in the value chain in the private sector. Methods and guidances are considered, with the ultimate goal being a harmonized methodology to create a detailed emissions inventory and risk disclosure of a company’s operations. It is suggested that Environmentally Extended Input–Output models initially be used as a screening tool, in order to identify emission dense sectors. Process-based LCA inventory data, collected through collaboration and transparency throughout the value chain, can then be applied to increase the resolution of the decision-making tool.
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de Bruin, Karianne, Romain Hubert, Julie Evain, Christa Clapp, Miriam Stackpole Dahl, Jaclyn Bolt, and Jana Sillmann. "Physical Climate Risks and the Financial Sector—Synthesis of Investors’ Climate Information Needs." In Climate Change Management, 135–56. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36875-3_8.
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Kumar, Lalit, Ian Eliot, Patrick D. Nunn, Tanya Stul, and Roger McLean. "Comparison of the Physical Susceptibility of Pacific Islands to Risks Potentially Associated with Variability in Weather and Climate." In Springer Climate, 201–24. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32878-8_4.
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Engen, Ole Andreas, and Claudia Morsut. "Climate Risk at Local Level." In Climate Change and Safety in High-Risk Industries, 53–62. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-56995-1_6.
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AbstractThis chapter addresses how public authorities understand climate risks and their consequences in the context of a socio-technical system such as the petroleum industry in Norway. This issue is discussed by selecting Stavanger Municipality, the petroleum capital of Norway, as a case study to explore the local understanding of climate risks, in terms of physical, transition and systemic risks. Stavanger Municipality and its region are experiencing socio-economic transformations of the main industry, consisting of the redesigning of prevalent system structures and the rebranding of the Municipality from oil to energy capital. This approach is sustained by the introduction of new practices, complying with climate change considerations, without interrupting important systemic functions and services.
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Bertrand, Jean-Louis, and Miia Chabot. "Assessing Physical Climate Risks: An AI-Powered Tool for Businesses." In Artificial Intelligence, Finance, and Sustainability, 177–213. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-66205-8_8.
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Urich, Peter, Yinpeng Li, and Sennye Masike. "Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Tipping Points in Botswana." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 1193–226. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_161.
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AbstractClimate adaptation planning requires new ways of thinking and approaching the analysis of risks. Such thinking needs to be systemic in nature and practice/action-oriented while respecting the complexity of the physical and social sciences. Through this chapter on climate tipping points in Botswana, it is proposed that a generic and practice-oriented analysis framework be applied with a mathematical foundation including modeling methods based on complex science. The objective is to promote a framework that privileges a worldview to avoid biased and partial explanations of risks. An Institutional-Socio-Earth-Economical-Technical systems (ISEET) approach is based on a systems science philosophy for risk governance analysis, with particular emphasis on tipping points and emergence which are some of the key elements that can support sound adaptation planning. Through the lens of the biodiversity sector in Botswana, the complex interrelationships of ISEET principles are explained. They provide a new, efficient, and practical framework for moving rapidly from theory to action for planning and implementing climate change adaption projects.
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Urich, Peter, Yinpeng Li, and Sennye Masike. "Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Tipping Points in Botswana." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 1–34. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42091-8_161-1.
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AbstractClimate adaptation planning requires new ways of thinking and approaching the analysis of risks. Such thinking needs to be systemic in nature and practice/action-oriented while respecting the complexity of the physical and social sciences. Through this chapter on climate tipping points in Botswana, it is proposed that a generic and practice-oriented analysis framework be applied with a mathematical foundation including modeling methods based on complex science. The objective is to promote a framework that privileges a worldview to avoid biased and partial explanations of risks. An Institutional-Socio-Earth-Economical-Technical systems (ISEET) approach is based on a systems science philosophy for risk governance analysis, with particular emphasis on tipping points and emergence which are some of the key elements that can support sound adaptation planning. Through the lens of the biodiversity sector in Botswana, the complex interrelationships of ISEET principles are explained. They provide a new, efficient, and practical framework for moving rapidly from theory to action for planning and implementing climate change adaption projects.
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Daloz, Anne Sophie. "Climate Change: A Growing Threat for Central Asia." In SpringerBriefs in Climate Studies, 15–21. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8_2.
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AbstractCentral Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change owing to a set of critical interactions between the region’s socio-economic and environmental contexts. While some of the Central Asian countries are among the states contributing the least to global greenhouse gas emissions, they are already suffering directly from the effects of climate change. This chapter presents an overview of the physical impacts of climate change in Central Asia using the most recent literature, including the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It identifies climate change-related risks and sectoral vulnerabilities for the region, providing background information to serve as context for the later chapters.
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Pirani, Anna. "The Climate Report Informing the Response to Climate Change in Urban Development." In The Urban Book Series, 547–56. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-29515-7_49.
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AbstractThe IPCC Climate Report was published in three volumes in August 2021, and February and April 2022. An overview of the key findings, sourced from these reports that are relevant for the resilient development of urban areas, is summarized in this paper. It is the authoritative, comprehensive assessment of the climate change, including the physical aspects, impacts and adaptation, and mitigation. Human-caused climate change has affected global and regional climate, including extremes and drivers of impacts with consequences for human and natural systems. Cities, urban areas, and settlements, for example in Europe, are particularly exposed to future risks. At the same time, there are multiple opportunities to address climate change both through adaptation and mitigation action with urban development. There are multiple synergies and co-benefits the responses to climate change and meeting the Sustainable Development Goals.
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Ebhuoma, Eromose E. "Attaining Food Security in the Wake of Climatic Risks: Lessons from the Delta State of Nigeria." In African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, 167–80. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_15.
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AbstractClimate variability and change have undermined the poor rural households’ ability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to engage in food production effectively – which comprises their primary source of livelihood – partly because it is predominantly rain-fed. Notwithstanding, the rural poor are not docile victims to climatic risks. They actively seek innovative ways to utilize their bundle of assets to reduce the negative effects of climatic risks to ensure household food security. Bundle of assets comprise the financial, human, physical, social, and natural assets owned by, or easily accessible to, an individual. Drawing on primary data obtained qualitatively in the Delta State of Nigeria, this chapter analyzes how Indigenous farmers utilize their bundle of assets to grow their food in the face of a rapidly changing climate. The results indicate that human and social assets played crucial roles in facilitating household food security. Also, social assets facilitated the procurement of other assets necessary to ensure continuity in food production, albeit farmers continue to live under the global poverty line. This chapter critically discusses the implications of these findings in relation to the attainment of both the first and second Sustainable Development Goals (no poverty and zero hunger) by 2030 in the Delta State.
Conference papers on the topic "Physical climate risks"
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Cimpoesu, Maria Cristina, and Adrian Grozavu. "TOURISM ACTIVITIES AND VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE PIATRA-NEAMT CITY (NORTH-EAST ROMANIA)." In 24th SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference 2024, 345–52. STEF92 Technology, 2024. https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2024/5.1/s20.44.
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In the area of the city of Piatra-Neamt (North-East of Romania), the activities related to the tourism sector may register malfunctions due to the manifestation of some natural risk phenomena. The touristic potential of the city (recreational, sports, balneary, cultural-historical) represents a central component of the national tourist structure with many exploitation possibilities. Risk situations of tourist activities can be induced by the natural hazards attributes (probability and intensity) and vulnerability conditions (physical, economic and social dimensions). The approach in the present study is mainly based on documentary investigation and statistical data collection on risk events covering the period between 1887 and the present, quantitative/qualitative data processing using GIS techniques for making a relevant mapping, and the critical interpretation of the results. The study highlights the fact that some tourist actors, tourist objectives as well as elements of the tourist infrastructure fall under the incidence of geomorphological risks (landslides), climatic risks (lightning) and biophysical risks (the COVID-19 pandemic). The main effects of these risk phenomena are the economic difficulties resulting from the interruption of activities and the decrease in the number of tourists. Identifying the characteristics causing the susceptibility to adverse effects of natural hazards and assessing the vulnerability of the tourism sector in Piatra-Neamt City constitutes an essential element in the risk management strategy and sustainable development of the community.
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Asimopolos, Laurentiu, Natalia-Silvia Asimopolos, Vijdea Anca-Marina, Dinu Luminita, and Adrian-Aristide Asimopolos. "ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC DATABASES IMPACTING SPACE WEATHER." In SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference 24, 441–50. STEF92 Technology, 2024. https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2024/6.1/s28.63.
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Through the complex analysis of the geomagnetic database of the Surlari Geomagnetic Observatory for over 80 years, corroborated with the data of other planetary observatories from the INTERMAGNET network, we have extracted the geomagnetic information that is correlated with the specific physical parameters of space weather domain. Space weather refers to the conditions and phenomena occurring in outer space that can influence the near-Earth space environment. This concept includes a variety of events and conditions that occur outside the Earth's atmosphere and can affect various aspects of space activities and technology. At the same time, we used the Romanian geomagnetic database, regarding declination, inclination and the total geomagnetic field, made in ArcGIS based on measurements in Romanian airports. Correlating the historical geomagnetic data of the observatory with the Solar Cycles and variations of the solar emission, with the spatiotemporal evolution of the composition, density, speed of the solar wind and ionospheric effects, provides a tool for forecasting climate change, space weather and for rapidly quantifying the possible effects of extreme geomagnetic storms in mid-latitudes. The periodic update of absolute declination values from the Airport Secular Variation Network with the help of global models, national reference values determined from observatory records and in situ measurements highlights the dynamics of national declination anomalies in real time and represented a tool for risk assessment in a strategic field � National Air Traffic Security. In this paper, we present the Fourier and wavelet analysis of geomagnetic data recorded at different planetary observatories, regarding geomagnetic storms. Fourier analysis highlights the predominant frequencies of the magnetic field components. Wavelet analysis provides information about the frequency ranges of magnetic fields, which contain long time intervals for average frequency information and short time intervals for highlight frequencies, details of the analyzed signals. Also, wavelet analysis allows us to decompose geomagnetic signals into different waves. The presented analyzes are significant for the study of the geomagnetic storm. Data for the following days after the storm showed a weakening of the disturbances and a transition to quiet days of the geomagnetic field. In both, the Fourier Transform and the Wavelet Transform, the evaluation of the transform involves the calculation of a scalar product between the analyzed signal and a set of signals that form a certain basis in the vector space of finite energy signals. At the same time, we present in this paper the realization of the web-GIS application for the magnetic declination measurements carried out by the Surlari Geomagnetic Observatory in the period 2010-2023.
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Buttini, Patrizia, Giulia Marcelli, Chiara Petrella, and Juan Deffis. "Development of a Practical Evaluation Tool for Climate Driven Physical Risks." In SPE International Conference and Exhibition on Health, Safety, Security, Environment, and Social Responsibility. Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/179457-ms.
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Soldatenko, Sergei, Sergei Soldatenko, Genrikh Alekseev, Genrikh Alekseev, Alexander Danilov, and Alexander Danilov. "A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b9398d1adf1.08545898.
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Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.
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Soldatenko, Sergei, Sergei Soldatenko, Genrikh Alekseev, Genrikh Alekseev, Alexander Danilov, and Alexander Danilov. "A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21610/conferencearticle_58b4315ae4ac9.
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Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.
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Málits, Péter, Áron Drabancz, and Márton El-Meouch Nedim. "Corporate attitudes towards climate change and their implications for corporate governance." In The European Union’s Contention in the Reshaping Global Economy. Szeged: Szegedi Tudományegyetem Gazdaságtudományi Kar, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.14232/eucrge.2022.12.
Full textAbstract:
The position of science on climate change is quite consistent and grim, but humanity is currently not on the economic trajectory to avoid the most serious consequences. The aim of our research is to assess the financial implications of climate change based on the literature, as well as the attitudes of corporations towards the topic and the observable trends. Based on this review, we illustrate the relationships between climate risks (e.g. transitional and physical risks) and the corporate sector by building a model. According to the results of the modelling, the realization of climate change risks poses a real threat to the long-term operation of companies that are considered unsustainable by the markets.
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Malinin, Valeriy, Valeriy Malinin, Svetlana Gordeeva, Svetlana Gordeeva, Oleg Shevchuk, Oleg Shevchuk, Yuliya Mitina, Yuliya Mitina, Александра Ершова, and Alexandra Ershova. "VARIATIONS OF SEA LEVEL AND GLOBAL CLIMATE IN MODERN CONDITIONS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.31519/conferencearticle_5b1b9476800645.51196268.
Full textAbstract:
Global warming can result in the rise of Sea Level (SL) by 40–100 cm by the end of the XXI century with possible catastrophic consequences for coastal zone. Study and prediction of long-term fluctuations of sea level is among the most important problems of modern hydrometeorology. A series of studies of SL interannual fluctuations have been carried out in RSHU. A reconstruction of SL fluctuations during the observation period of 1861-2010, i.e. 150 years, was performed on the basis of the developed statistical model showing a powerful linear trend describing 94% of the initial row dispersion. During the XX century the trend approached 1.8 mm/year. The comparison of actual and calculated SL trends for two periods (1980–2005 and 1993-2003) has shown that the residual error makes respectively 0.21 and 0.22 mm/year that is three times less, than in the Fourth IPCC report. Also, for the first time the complex of methods of SL longterm forecast was developed: the main advantage of a simple statistical model of SL longterm forecast is a minimum of initial information, but the model accuracy is comparable with complex and expensive ocean and atmosphere circulation models. The two-decade range physical-statistical sea level prediction model was developed for the first time based on the idea that Global Air Temperature (GAT) is a major factor of SL changes. It was experimentally shown that there is a long delay (20 and 30 years) of SL fluctuations with respect to Global Air Temperature.
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Malinin, Valeriy, Valeriy Malinin, Svetlana Gordeeva, Svetlana Gordeeva, Oleg Shevchuk, Oleg Shevchuk, Yuliya Mitina, Yuliya Mitina, Александра Ершова, and Alexandra Ershova. "VARIATIONS OF SEA LEVEL AND GLOBAL CLIMATE IN MODERN CONDITIONS." In Managing risks to coastal regions and communities in a changing world. Academus Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21610/conferencearticle_58b4316be3ef5.
Full textAbstract:
Global warming can result in the rise of Sea Level (SL) by 40–100 cm by the end of the XXI century with possible catastrophic consequences for coastal zone. Study and prediction of long-term fluctuations of sea level is among the most important problems of modern hydrometeorology. A series of studies of SL interannual fluctuations have been carried out in RSHU. A reconstruction of SL fluctuations during the observation period of 1861-2010, i.e. 150 years, was performed on the basis of the developed statistical model showing a powerful linear trend describing 94% of the initial row dispersion. During the XX century the trend approached 1.8 mm/year. The comparison of actual and calculated SL trends for two periods (1980–2005 and 1993-2003) has shown that the residual error makes respectively 0.21 and 0.22 mm/year that is three times less, than in the Fourth IPCC report. Also, for the first time the complex of methods of SL longterm forecast was developed: the main advantage of a simple statistical model of SL longterm forecast is a minimum of initial information, but the model accuracy is comparable with complex and expensive ocean and atmosphere circulation models. The two-decade range physical-statistical sea level prediction model was developed for the first time based on the idea that Global Air Temperature (GAT) is a major factor of SL changes. It was experimentally shown that there is a long delay (20 and 30 years) of SL fluctuations with respect to Global Air Temperature.
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Medarević, Aleksandar. "Active Transport: A Pathway to Greener Planet, Healthier and Happier Lives." In Building bridges between climate science and society through a transdisciplinary network, 46–62. Belgrade, Serbia: Scientific Society Isaac Newton, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.69646/bbbs2406.
Full textAbstract:
Active transport is characterized by the passenger's physical effort, which directly contributes to movement. This includes walking, cycling, and other activities like swimming, canoeing, and skateboarding. The most common topics under active transport study are the health benefits of this form of movement and the risks and safety that active transportation entails. Cohort studies demonstrated significant health benefits of active transport, particularly in preventing diabetes and improving mental health. Active transport satisfies the participants, facilitates socialization, and significantly reduces air pollution, contributing to a greener planet. According to national data from 2019 in Serbia, 75.2% of adults walk for at least ten minutes daily. On the contrary, only 9.0% of adults ride a bicycle daily, mainly in Vojvodina. The environmental benefits of active transport outweigh its dangers and risks. New designs of active transport vehicles provide opportunities and challenges in their implementation and spatial arrangement.
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OLLAITAN, Razaq Abolaji, and Ayansina AYANLADE. "CHARACTERIZATION OF AEROSOL PARTICLES IN ILORIN, NIGERIA: GROUND-BASED MEASUREMENT APPROACH." In Second Southern Science Conference - 2024. Araucária - Associação Científica, 2024. https://doi.org/10.48141/sscon_54_2024.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
The present study investigated the changes in aerosol optical characteristics and their impact on climate change risks in Ilorin, Nigeria, focusing on the physical characteristics, spatial distribution, and relationships between aerosol properties. The research utilized ground-based measurements from AERONET data archives to analyze aerosol optical depth and angstrom exponent data, along with single scattering albedo and aerosol size distribution parameters for 2019 and 2021. Analysis was conducted using mean, percentages, and correlation analysis to determine seasonal and annual aerosol properties. The findings revealed four distinct types of aerosol particles: urban industrial (29.22%), desert dust (37.08%), biomass burning (10.67%), and urban mix (23.03%). The study demonstrated statistically insignificant annual and seasonal variations (p value>0.05), with low Angstrom exponent values (<1) indicating a predominance of coarse particles over Ilorin. The average annual single scattering albedo at wavelengths 440/675/870/1020 was 0.05/0.09/0.23/0.25. A positive correlation between aerosol properties and particle concentration was observed, highlighting the significant impact of spatiotemporal aerosol changes on climate change risks. These findings suggest that increasing changes in Ilorin's aerosol properties may exacerbate future climate risks, emphasizing the growing contribution of anthropogenic emissions to urban climate challenges. This research contributes to our understanding of aerosol optical characteristics in urban environments and their implications for climate change mitigation strategies.
Reports on the topic "Physical climate risks"
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Kim, Kyeonghee, and Xiao Lin. Climate risks in the commercial mortgage portfolios of life insurers: A focus on sea level rise and flood risks. Center for Insurance Policy and Research, July 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.52227/26565.2023.
Full textAbstract:
In this paper, we explore the climate risk exposure of U.S. life insurers’ commercial mortgage loan portfolios, focusing on sea level rise (SLR) and flood risks. Commercial mortgages are an important asset class of life insurers: Approximately 15% of the life insurance industry asset is held in commercial mortgages. Life insurers are also important institutional investors in the commercial real estate (CRE) market. They hold approximately 14% of the outstanding CRE mortgage loans and are the third-largest institutional lenders in the U.S. commercial mortgage market. Life insurers are exposed to both physical and transitional risks of climate change through their commercial mortgage investments: Physical damages to commercial properties may increase due to flooding or SLR, and devaluation of certain commercial properties as the economy transitions can also lead to financial losses for life insurers.
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Monasterolo, Irene, María J. Nieto, and Edo Schets. The good, the bad and the hot house world: conceptual underpinnings of the NGFS scenarios and suggestions for improvement. Madrid: Banco de España, February 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.53479/29533.
Full textAbstract:
Climate mitigation scenarios are an essential tool for analyzing the macroeconomic and financial implications of climate change (physical risk), and how the transition to a low-carbon economy could unfold (transition risk). The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has co-developed a set of climate mitigation scenarios for climate financial risk assessment. Despite the important role that these scenarios play in climate stress tests, the understanding of their main characteristics and limitations is still poor. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap by focusing on the following issues: comparison of the process-based Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used by the NGFS with alternative models; the role of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in shaping the scenario narratives, and their shortcomings; the interpretation and sensitivities of carbon price pathways; and, comparison with other climate mitigation scenarios. We then draw lessons on how to increase the relevance of the NGFS scenarios. These include updating the SSP narratives; considering the potential trade-offs between different types of climate policies; assessing acute physical risks and their compounding; integrating physical risks within transition scenarios; and, taking into account the role of the financial sector and investors’ expectations.
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Gallardo, Laura, Rafiq Hamdi, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Ian Klaus, Zbigniew Klimont, Jagdish Krishnaswamy, Izidine Pinto, et al. What the Latest Physical Science of Climate Change Means for Cities. Indian Institute for Human Settlements, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.24943/supsv108.2022.
Full textAbstract:
The 6 th Assessment Report cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6) comes at a precipitous moment in history. Human influence has warmed the planet, and widespread and rapid impacts are occurring to natural and human systems in all regions of the world. In response, immediate action is needed if there is to be any hope of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or well below 2°C below pre-industrial levels, as well as preparing for and adapting to current and future risks. The transformations needed in response to climate change will require decisive action in cities and urban areas. Cities and urban areas are a major source and driver of emissions; they are also crucial sites for system transitions in the near term and transformations over longer time frames
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Pachauri, Rajendra, Myles R. Allen, Vicente R. Barros, John Broome, Wolfgang Cramer, Renate Christ, John A. Church, et al., eds. Climate Change 2014 - Synthesis Report. IPCC, April 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.59327/ipcc/ar5-9789291691432.
Full textAbstract:
The Synthesis Report (SYR) distils and integrates the findings of the three Working Group contributions to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the most comprehensive assessment of climate change undertaken thus far by the IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis; Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; and Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. The SYR also incorporates the findings of two Special Reports on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (2011) and on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (2011).
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Casey, Jonathan. Phase 1: State of play review of climate risk assessment guidance. Commercial Agriculture for Smallholders and Agribusiness (CASA), 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/20240191177.
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This report reviews the current state of play of climate risk assessment practice and guidance for financial institutions. It assesses the guidance related to disclosures under a number of voluntary and regulatory frameworks (as set out in Annex 1: Summary of climate risk assessment guidance), and in particular sector-specific guidance for agriculture and agribusiness investments. The report assesses the key commonalities and differences of climate risk assessment guidance, and reviews how climate adaptation and resilience are considered and addressed in the guidance in terms of both transition risk and physical risks. It also presents an overview of case studies and guidance on emerging good practices in utilising data generated by smallholder farmers to inform more granular and timely climate risk assessments for family farming initiatives.
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Trotz, Ulric, Murray Simpson, and Daniel Scott. Climate Change's Impact on the Caribbean's Ability to Sustain Tourism, Natural Assests and Livelihoods. Inter-American Development Bank, March 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0008840.
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In this technical note, the authors present the effects of climate change on tourism development in the Caribbean, focusing on sea level rise and approaches to sustainability managing climate change impacts. For government and business decision makers in the tourism sector, climate change is a new strategic reality. Increasingly, institutional investors, banks, and insurance companies seek information on the material risks associated with climate change - driven by regulations at national and international levels, physical impacts on business, and the indirect consequences of regulation on business trends, such as changes in the demands for goods and services.
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Gao, Zhenyu, Yan Luo, Shu Tian, and Hao Yang. Green Preference, Green Investment. Asian Development Bank, April 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/wps240238-2.
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This paper examines whether individual investors’ green preference will be reflected in their investment decisions. It provides compelling evidence that individuals with stronger green preference invest more in green mutual funds, influenced by concerns over the physical and regulatory risks of climate change. It suggests that this behavior is not driven by financial incentives as preference-related investments may not always lead to financial gains from trading.
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Amornsiripanitch, Natee, and David Wylie. Who Bears Climate-Related Physical Risk? Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, November 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.21799/frbp.wp.2023.29.
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Suding, Paul Hugo, and Fareeha Y. Iqbal. Options Paper: Reducing Climate Risk in IDB Operations. Inter-American Development Bank, April 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0009073.
Full textAbstract:
This paper explores options to minimize threats posed to IDB-financed physical investments by the impacts of climate change. A large proportion of projects are implemented in climate-sensitive sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources, and transport). In these cases, the norm is to consider historic climatic trends for guiding project conceptualization and design. However, there is growing realization among international development agencies including the IDB that this may not be sufficient; many multilateral and bilateral development agencies now recognize the need to also consider future changes in long-term trends of climatic variables, as well as the possibility of an intensification or increased frequency of extreme climatic events such as floods, droughts, and hurricanes.
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Barquet, Karina, Elin Leander, Jonathan Green, Heidi Tuhkanen, Vincent Omondi Odongo, Michael Boyland, Elizabeth Katja Fiertz, Maria Escobar, Mónica Trujillo, and Philip Osano. Spotlight on social equity, finance and scale: Promises and pitfalls of nature-based solutions. Stockholm Environment Institute, June 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.51414/sei2021.011.
Full textAbstract:
Human activity has modified and deteriorated natural ecosystems in ways that reduce resilience and exacerbate environmental and climate problems. Physical measures to protect, manage and restore these ecosystems that also address societal challenges in sustainable ways and bring biodiversity benefits are sometimes referred to as “nature-based solutions” (NBS). For example, reducing deforestation and restoring forests is a major opportunity for climate mitigation, while protecting or restoring coastal habitats can mitigate damage to coastal areas from natural hazard events, in addition to potentially providing co-benefits related to livelihood, recreation, and biodiversity. There is now an impetus to shift towards greater deployment of nature-based solutions. Not only do they offer an alternative to conventional fossil fuel-based or hard infrastructure solutions but, if implemented correctly, they also hold great promise for achieving multiple goals, benefits and synergies. These include climate mitigation and resilience; nature and biodiversity protection; and economic and social gains. 2020 saw an explosion in publications about NBS, which have contributed to filling many of the knowledge gaps that existed around their effectiveness and factors for their success. These publications have also highlighted the knowledge gaps that remain and have revealed a lack of critical reflection on the social and economic sustainability aspects of NBS. Building on these gaps, we decided to launch this mini-series of four briefs to provoke a more nuanced discussion that highlights not only the potential benefits, but also the potential risks and trade-offs of NBS. The purpose is not to downplay the importance of NBS for biodiversity, ecosystems, and coastal mitigation and adaptation, but to ensure that we establish a dialogue about ways to overcome these challenges while leaving no one behind.