Journal articles on the topic 'Phase-lagged method'

Scalp electric potentials (electroencephalogram; EEG) are contingent to the impressed current density unleashed by cortical pyramidal neurons undergoing post-synaptic processes. EEG neuroimaging consists of estimating the cortical current density from scalp recordings. We report a solution to this inverse problem that attains exact localization: exact low-resolution brain electromagnetic tomography (eLORETA). This non-invasive method yields high time-resolution intracranial signals that can be used for assessing functional dynamic connectivity in the brain, quantified by coherence and phase synchronization. However, these measures are non-physiologically high because of volume conduction and low spatial resolution. We present a new method to solve this problem by decomposing them into instantaneous and lagged components, with the lagged part having almost pure physiological origin.

Coherent X-ray diffraction imaging has received considerable attention as a nondestructive method for probing material structure at the nanoscale. However, tools for reconstructing and analysing data in both two and three dimensions have lagged somewhat behind.Bonsu, the interactive phase retrieval suite, is the first software package that allows real-time visualization of the reconstruction of phase information in both two and three dimensions. It comes complete with an inventory of algorithms and routines for data manipulation and reconstruction.Bonsuis open source, is designed around the Python language (with C++ bindings) and is largely platform independent.Bonsuis made available under version three of the GNU General Public License and can be found at https://code.google.com/p/bonsu/.

Salinity and tidal range time series observed in Modaomen waterway was analyzed in power spectrum method, and both showed the period of half month (14.22d). Moreover, the salinity and tidal range time series were coherent at that period through cross spectrum analysis. Besides, the phase analysis at the period of 14.22d showed that, within the estuary, the salinity time series upstream lagged that of the downstream, and the response time of salinity time series to the tidal range time series was about 9-10d, increasing upstream. But the phase of salinity time series and response time to the tidal range at the estuary mouth did not correspond with the laws within the estuary. The response time of salinity to the tidal range was about 12d there.

The head autorotation test is a novel method for studying the high-frequency vestibuloocular reflex without heavy machinery to generate whole-body rotation. Despite many studies with the test, the method is far from standardized, and no comparison has been made of different versions of the test. The objective of this study was to compare the vestibuloocular reflex of 100 healthy subjects measured simultaneously with two versions of the head autorotation test. Gain, phase, asymmetry, and the frequency bands reached were determined in the frequency bands of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 Hz. The gain measured with both tests was close to unity (range 0.95–1.04) from 1 to 4 Hz and about 0.9 at 5 Hz. In the test developed by Vorteq the phase lagged ( − 7 to − 21 ∘ ) in all the frequency bands, and it differed significantly from the phase lead of 2 to 5 ∘ that was measured by the other test. The asymmetry measured with the Vorteq test increased continuously from 1.5% variation, which was larger in the higher frequency bands. In conclusion, the high-frequency vestibuloocular reflex of healthy subjects can be quantified with active head oscillation. Both tests produced similar gain results, but the phase results differed systematically. Thus, the results of different head autorotation tests may not be directly comparable.

Estuarine freshwater transport has a substantial impact on the near-shore ecosystem and coastal ocean environment away from the estuary. This paper introduces two independent methods to track the Mekong freshwater-induced mass transport by calculating the time lag (or equivalently, the phase) between in situ Mekong basin runoff and the equivalent water height (EWH) time series over the western South China Sea from a gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE). The first method is the harmonic analysis that determines the phase difference between annual components of the two time series (called the P-method), and the other is the cross-correlation analysis that directly obtains the time lag by shifting the lagged time series forward to attain the highest cross-correlation between the two time series (called the C-method). Using a three-year rolling window, the time lag variations in three versions of GRACE between 2005 and 2012 are computed for demonstrating the consistency of the results. We found that the time lag derived from the P-method is, on average, slightly larger and more variable than that from the C-method. A comparison of our gridded time lag against the age determined via radium isotopes in September, 2007 by Chen et al. (2010) revealed that our gridded time lag results were in good agreement with most isotope-derived ages, with the largest difference less than 6 days. Among the three versions of the GRACE time series, CSR Release 05 performed the best. The lowest standard deviation of time lag was ~1.6 days, calculated by the C-method, whereas the mean difference for all the time lags from the isotope-derived ages is ~1 day by P-method. This study demonstrates the potential of monitoring Mekong estuarine freshwater transport over the western South China Sea by GRACE.

A time-accurate analysis for turbine vane-blade interaction is presented. The analysis simultaneously solves the unsteady isentropic Euler equations in the vane and blade rows on a blade-to-blade surface of revolution. The equations are integrated on overlapped O-type grids using a rapid and robust explicit hopscotch algorithm. Vane and blade rows with unequal numbers of airfoils in each row are treated using a single passage model with phase-lagged periodic boundary conditions. Boundary conditions between the rows are set by a combination of bilinear interpolation and a reference plane method of characteristics. Nonreflective inflow and outflow boundary point calculation procedures are incorporated to ensure that outward-radiating planar waves pass out of the solution domain without reflection. Presented results for a turbine stage show significant effects of the interaction on the time-mean airfoil surface pressure distributions.

AbstractDue to velopharyngeal incompetence, airflow overflows from the oral cavity to the nasal cavity, which results in hypernasality. Hypernasality greatly reduces speech intelligibility and affects the daily communication of patients with cleft palate. Accurate assessment of hypernasality grades can provide assisted diagnosis for speech-language pathologists (SLPs) in clinical settings. Utilizing a support vector machine (SVM), this paper classifies speech recordings into four grades (normal, mild, moderate and severe hypernasality) based on vocal tract characteristics. Linear prediction (LP) analysis is widely used to model the vocal tract. Glottal source information may be included in the LP-based spectrum. The stabilized weighted linear prediction (SWLP) method, which imposes the temporal weights on the closed-phase interval of the glottal cycle, is a more robust approach for modeling the vocal tract. The extended weighted linear prediction (XLP) method weights each lagged speech signal separately, which achieves a finer time scale on the spectral envelope than the SWLP method. Tested speech recordings were collected from 60 subjects with cleft palate and 20 control subjects, and included a total of 4640 Mandarin syllables. The experimental results showed that the spectral envelope of normal speech decreases faster than that of hypernasal speech in the high-frequency part. The experimental results also indicate that the SWLP- and XLP-based methods have smaller correlation coefficients between normal and hypernasal speech than the LP method. Thus, the SWLP and XLP methods have better ability to distinguish hypernasal from normal speech than the LP method. The classification accuracies of the four hypernasality grades using the SWLP and XLP methods range from 83.86% to 97.47%. The selection of the model order and the size of the weight function are also discussed in this paper.

AbstractIn this paper, a double-passage shape correction (DPSC) method is presented for simulation of unsteady flows around vibrating blades and aeroelastic prediction. Based on the idea of phase-lagged boundary conditions, the shape correction method was proposed aimed at efficiently dealing with unsteady flow problems in turbomachinery. However, the original single-passage shape correction (SPSC) may show the disadvantage of slow convergence of unsteady solutions and even produce nonphysical oscillation. The reason is found to be related with the disturbances on the circumferential boundaries that can not be damped by numerical schemes. To overcome these difficulties, the DPSC method is adopted here, in which the Fourier coefficients are computed from flow variables at implicit boundaries instead of circumferential boundaries in the SPSC method. This treatment actually reduces the interaction between the calculation of Fourier coefficients and the update of flow variables. Therefore a faster convergence speed could be achieved and also the solution stability is improved. The present method is developed to be suitable for viscous and turbulent flows. And for real three-dimensional (3D) problems, the rotating effects are also considered. For validation, a 2D oscillating turbine cascade, a 3D oscillating flat plate cascade and a 3D practical transonic fan rotor are investigated. Comparisons with experimental data or other solutions and relevant discussions are presented in detail. Numerical results show that the solution accuracy of DPSC method is favorable and at least comparable to the SPSC method. However, fewer iteration cycles are needed to get a converged and stable unsteady solution, which greatly improves the computational efficiency.

Abstract. The atmospheric blocking over eastern Europe and western Russia that prevailed during July and August of 2010 led to the development of a devastating Russian heat wave. Therefore the question of whether the event was predictable or not is highly important. The principal aim of this study is to examine the predictability of this high-impact atmospheric event on a seasonal timescale. To this end, a set of dynamical seasonal simulations have been carried out using an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM). The impact of various model initializations on the predictability of this large-scale event and its sensitivity to the initial conditions has been also investigated. The ensemble seasonal simulations are based on a modified version of the lagged-average forecast method using different lead-time initializations of the model. The results indicated that only a few individual members reproduced the main features of the blocking system 3 months ahead. Most members missed the phase space and the propagation of the system, setting limitations in the predictability of the event.

Abstract The Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) technique is becoming a robust global observing system. GPS RO refractivity is typically modeled at the ray perigee point by a “local refractivity operator” in a data assimilation system. Such modeling does not take into account the horizontal gradients that affect the GPS RO refractivity. A new observable (linear excess phase), defined as an integral of the refractivity along some fixed ray path within the model domain, has been developed in earlier studies to account for the effect of horizontal gradients. In this study, the error statistics of both observables (refractivity and linear excess phase) are estimated using the GPS RO data from the Formosa Satellite 3–Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) mission. The National Meteorological Center (NMC) method, which is based on lagged forecast differences, is applied for evaluation of the model forecast errors that are used for estimation of the GPS RO observational errors. Also used are Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts in the East Asia region at 45-km resolution for one winter month (mid-January to mid-February) and one summer month (mid-August to mid-September) in 2007. Fractional standard deviations of the observational errors of refractivity and linear excess phase both show an approximately linear decrease with height in the troposphere and a slight increase above the tropopause; their maximum magnitude is about 2.2% (2.5%) for refractivity and 1.1% (1.3%) for linear excess phase in the lowest 2 km for the winter (summer) month. An increase of both fractional observational errors near the surface in the summer month is attributed mainly to a larger amount of water vapor. The results indicate that the fractional observational error of refractivity is about twice as large as that of linear excess phase, regardless of season. The observational errors of both linear excess phase and refractivity are much less latitude dependent for summer than for winter. This difference is attributed to larger latitudinal variations of the specific humidity in winter.

223 Background: Gemcitabine is a key drug for treating pancreatic cancer; however, with the limitation in clinical benefits, the development of another potent therapeutic was strongly called for. VEGF-receptor 2 (VEGFR2: Flk-1 and KDR) is an essential target for tumor angiogenesis, and we have executed a phase I clinical trial using gemcitabine and VEGFR2-peptide (Cancer Sci 2010). Based on promising phase I trial results, a multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind phase II/III clinical trial has been conducted (UMIN000001664). Methods: The eligibility criteria are: locally advanced, metastatic, or unresectable pancreatic cancer. Patients were allocated to either VEGFR2 peptide (OTS102) + gemcitabine group or placebo + gemcitabine in 2:1 ratio by dynamic allocation method. The primary endpoint was overall survival. The Harrington-Fleming test, with the weight proportional to cumulative death probability, was used for the statistical analysis under the time-lagged effect of immunotherapy. Sample size was estimated presuming the effects will be observed from the time point of 50% cumulative survival rate. Assuming a type I error alpha (two-sided) level of 5% and a power of 80% or more for 50%-60% reduction of hazard, sample size necessary was estimated as 100 patients for the active group and 50 patients for the placebo group. Results: No statistically significant survival time prolongation was observed in OTS102 add-on group (p = 0.92). However, the three-month landmark analysis revealed significant interaction between the treatment and reports of indurations or ulcerations (p = 0.005) in add-on group, and if patients survived for over three months, grade 1-2 patients had better survival than grade 0 (1-year survival: 47%(23/49) and 22%(9/44), respectively) in add-on group. Conclusions: Despite the lack of survival time prolongation by OTS102 add-on to gemcitabine therapy, patients experienced injection site indurations or ulcerations may have better survival, suggesting new prognostic factors for VEGFR2-epitope peptide. Our results indicate the possibility of epitope peptide used in cocktail therapies. Clinical trial information: UMIN000001664.

Context.—Laboratory information systems (LIS) are critical components of the operation of clinical laboratories. However, the functionalities of LIS have lagged significantly behind the capacities of current hardware and software technologies, while the complexity of the information produced by clinical laboratories has been increasing over time and will soon undergo rapid expansion with the use of new, high-throughput and high-dimensionality laboratory tests. In the broadest sense, LIS are essential to manage the flow of information between health care providers, patients, and laboratories and should be designed to optimize not only laboratory operations but also personalized clinical care. Objectives.—To list suggestions for designing LIS with the goal of optimizing the operation of clinical laboratories while improving clinical care by intelligent management of laboratory information. Data Sources.—Literature review, interviews with laboratory users, and personal experience and opinion. Conclusions.—Laboratory information systems can improve laboratory operations and improve patient care. Specific suggestions for improving the function of LIS are listed under the following sections: (1) Information Security, (2) Test Ordering, (3) Specimen Collection, Accessioning, and Processing, (4) Analytic Phase, (5) Result Entry and Validation, (6) Result Reporting, (7) Notification Management, (8) Data Mining and Cross-sectional Reports, (9) Method Validation, (10) Quality Management, (11) Administrative and Financial Issues, and (12) Other Operational Issues.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has a significant effect on the economic growth and development of host economies, but also on international economic integration through globalization. Particular aspects of this topic are being extensively addressed by scientific research in recent decades. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether globalization and through it the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has an impact on the economic growth (GDPgr) of the Western Balkan countries which are facing a transitional phase. The relation between FDI and economic growth has been analyzed by employing econometric models with panel data approach: linear regression with poled data, the Fixed Effects model, and the Random-Effects model (GLS). The study is based on panel data of six countries for the period between 2004-2018, obtained by the World Bank. The results of the Random Effects model (GLS) shown that lagged FDI has a significant impact on the economic growth (GDPgr) of the Western Balkans (p<0.05%), as well as gross capital formation (Cap) and government expenditure (Gov) whereas export (Ex) has been excluded from the model. The results also shown that there are significant differences in the factors influencing economic growth among countries in the region (LM Method - Breusch-Pagan test; p=0.02455 < 0.05).

Purpose This study was conducted to determine whether a narrative intervention program that targeted the use of mental state and causal language resulted in positive gains in narrative production for children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Method Five children (2 girls and 3 boys) who had been diagnosed with ASD participated in the study. Children ranged in age from 8 to 12 years and were recruited through an autism clinic. Intervention was provided for two 50-min individual sessions per week for a total of 21–33 sessions (depending on the student). Children's spontaneous stories, collected weekly, were analyzed for overall story complexity, story structure, and the use of mental state and causal language. Following a multiple-baseline across-participants design, data were collected for lagged baseline and intervention phases over a 6-month period. Results All of the children made gains on all 3 measures of narration after participating in the instruction, with clear changes in level for all 5 children and changes in trend for 4 of the 5 children. The gains were maintained after intervention was discontinued. Conclusion The results demonstrate the efficacy of the 3-phase narrative instruction program for improving the fictional narration abilities of children with ASD.

Abstract Asians are the largest and the fastest growing segment of the world population, and the second largest immigrant population in the U.S. A high proportion of Asians live in developing countries or are immigrants to developed countries. Studies on age-related social and health issues of Asians have lagged. To advance research into aging among Asians living in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world, sound methodologies can be adopted from those well-developed in other settings while novel methodologies are to be developed to meet the unique needs of Asian studies. This symposium brings together five abstracts that address a variety of innovative methodological issues in social and health studies among Asian older adults. The topics range from use of wearable devices to measure travel patterns, life space and physical activity in late-life Asian immigrants in the U.S.; use of Ecological Momentary Assessment method to examine influences of social contact satisfaction on neighborhood affect in Chinese in mainland China; use of multilingual age-friendly touch-screen device for cognitive intervention in Singapore; use of GIS to evaluate potential influences of accessibility to neighborhood living resources on attitudes towards aging among the oldest old in Shanghai; and use of a multi-phase complex mixed methods to evaluate a Chinese cancer screening program in Taiwan. Together, these studies showed that innovative methods can be adapted for context relevance and linguistic and cultural appropriateness, and successfully executed in studies on aging among Asians. This symposium is a collaborative effort of the Aging Among Asians Interest Group.

Objective: Quality measures (QMs; also known as Quality Indicators) quantify health care processes, outcomes, patient perceptions, and organizational structure and/or systems that are relevant to the provision of high-quality health care. We describe the first phase of a project that has as its ultimate goal the creation and validation of QMs for tracking the screening, diagnosis, treatment, and clinical follow-up of adults with ADHD. This will fill an important gap in the field of Adult ADHD because QMs for adult ADHD do not exist. Method: We followed the guidelines of the U.S. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) for the development of QMs. These guidelines call for two phases: (1) Identify Candidate QMs and (2) Assess Candidate QMs. This article describes the results of our Phase 1 activities. To generate QMs for adult ADHD, we took the following steps: (a) searched the clinical/research literature for adult ADHD QMs; (b) convened a multidisciplinary panel comprising clinical and research experts and had them brainstorm potential QMs in the areas of screening, diagnosis, treatment, follow-up, care coordination, and patient experience; (c) compared these QMs with existing guidelines for adult ADHD to see if any potential QMs had been missed, this led to a draft list of 46 QMs; (d) had 28 ADHD experts rate the importance, reliability, validity, feasibility, and usability of the QMs. Results: The literature review found several QMs for ADHD in youth but none for ADHD in adults. The brainstorming session generated 52 QMs. The survey showed that all of these QMs were highly rated but that there was sufficient variability in ratings to prioritize some QMs over others. Conclusion: Based on these results, we prioritized QMs to carry forward into the next phase of the project. This work fills an important gap for the clinical care of adult patients with ADHD and helps to set a precedent for mental health, which has lagged behind other areas of medicine in developing QMs.

Abstract. The changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and its precipitation-related teleconnections over the globe under climate change are investigated in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble from 1950 to 2100. For the investigation, a recently developed ensemble-based method, the snapshot empirical orthogonal function (SEOF) analysis, is used. The instantaneous ENSO pattern is defined as the leading mode of the SEOF analysis carried out at a given time instant over the ensemble. The corresponding principal components (PC1s) characterize the ENSO phases. By considering sea surface temperature (SST) regression maps, we find that the largest changes in the typical amplitude of SST fluctuations occur in the June–July–August–September (JJAS) season, in the Niño3–Niño3.4 (5∘ N–5∘ S, 170–90∘ W; NOAA Climate Prediction Center) region, and the western part of the Pacific Ocean; however, the increase is also considerable along the Equator in December–January–February (DJF). The Niño3 amplitude also shows an increase of about 20 % and 10 % in JJAS and DJF, respectively. The strength of the precipitation-related teleconnections of the ENSO is found to be nonstationary, as well. For example, the anticorrelation with precipitation in Australia in JJAS and the positive correlation in central and northern Africa in DJF are predicted to be more pronounced by the end of the 21th century. Half-year-lagged correlations, aiming to predict precipitation conditions from ENSO phases, are also studied. The Australian and Indonesian precipitation and that of the eastern part of Africa in both JJAS and DJF seem to be well predictable based on the ENSO phase, while the southern Indian precipitation relates to the half-year previous ENSO phase only in DJF. The strength of these connections increases, especially from the African region to the Arabian Peninsula.

CVI988 (Rispens), an avirulent strain of Marek's disease virus, is the most widely used vaccine against Marek's disease. The kinetics of replication of CVI988 was examined in tissues of chickens vaccinated at either 1 day or 14 days of age and sampled regularly up to 28 days post-vaccination. Age at vaccination had no significant effect on the kinetics of CVI988 virus replication. During the cytolytic phase of infection (1–7 days), virus levels peaked in the spleen, bursa and thymus with very close correlation among these organs. Virus load in peripheral blood lagged behind and did not reach high levels. Significant numbers of virus genomes were detected in the feather tips only after 7 days, but subsequently rose to levels almost 103-fold greater than in the other tissues. This is the first accurate quantitative data for kinetics of CVI988 replication in a variety of tissues. There was good correlation between data from virus isolation and PCR, with real-time PCR being the preferred method for rapid, accurate and sensitive quantification of virus. Feathers were ideal for non-invasive sampling to detect and measure CVI988 in live chickens and, from 10 days onwards, virus load in feather tips was predictive of virus load in lymphoid tissues where immune responses will occur. The potential for real-time PCR analysis of feather samples for further investigation of the mechanism of vaccinal protection, and to assist optimization of vaccination regimes, is discussed.

Solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) poses great potential for stationary power generation. Nevertheless, its full-scale commercialization has lagged due to the inadequacy of long-term durability. Along with diverse background of performance deterioration, the inter-diffusion between the cathode and electrolyte have been identified as a leading fatal factor. Herein, we introduced a robust GDC layer by sequential lamination approach that completely suppresses the detrimental phase of SrZrO3 at electrolyte interface during high temperature operation. This buffer layer is fabricated via green film sequential lamination, in which the anode support, anode functional layer, electrolyte and GDC layers were sequentially co-laminated by iso-static pressing and co-sintered at 1300-1400°C. The enhanced interfacial connectivity and desired packing density of electrolyte and buffer layer were attained by controlling the shrinkages behaviors of each component. Thus, the formation of detrimental secondary phases (SrZrO3) at interface of electrolyte and decomposition of cathode are successfully restrained during fabrication and operation at critical current density. The scale-able and mass production are also confirmed through the fabrication of large area cells (144cm2) having active area 100cm2. The sequentially co-laminated GDC layer exhibited extreme low degradation rate of 0.2%/khr, which fulfils the critical longevity benchmark for commercialization of technology. This work features a cost-effective, scalable, and reproducible method for larger scale production of robust multi-layer anode supported SOFC. Keywords: Durability, Sequential lamination, life expectancy, Detrimental phases, iso-static pressing

Abstract Climate modes play an important role in weather and climate variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales. This research assesses Earth system model (ESM) projections of the spatiotemporal characteristics of key internal climate modes (NAM, SAM, PNA, ENSO, PDO, and AMO) under high (SSP585) and low (SSP126) radiative forcing scenarios and contextualizes those projections using historical fidelity. Time series analyses are used to assess trends and mode phase characteristics are summarized for the historical period and for the end of the twenty-first century. Spatial patterns are compared to infer morphological changes. Shifts in the power spectra are used to examine changes in variability at subannual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Changes in time-lagged correlations are used to capture the evolution of first-order interactions. While differences in historical skill are predominantly ESM dependent, changing mode characteristics in a warmer climate also exhibit variability between individual ensemble realizations. NAM, SAM, and ENSO tend to evolve toward increased prevalence of the positive phase up to 2100 across the multimodel ensemble while the PNA and PDO exhibit little trend but increasing phase intensity. AMO characteristics are shown to depend on the method used to remove the external signal. ESMs that show higher historical fidelity tend to show more modest changes in those modes under global nonstationarity. Changes in mode interactions are found to be highly ESM dependent but exhibit broadly similar behavior to historical relationships. These findings have implications for our understanding of internal variability and make clear that the choice of ESM, and even the ESM realization, matters for applications of climate projections. Significance Statement Internal modes of variability are important to understand due to their impact on local, regional, and global weather and climate patterns. Future climate changes will not only be affected by the variability arising from these modes, but the modes will themselves change in response to the changing climate. Spatial and temporal aspects of the modes are assessed from projections of future climate and related to how well they are captured in the historical climate. This yields some measure of confidence in the changes exhibited by the models. In most cases, when historically skillful models exhibit changes that are different from those produced by less skillful models, they tend to produce more modest changes. These results, as well as the variability between model outcomes, mean decisions on which ESM to use for projections of the future climate matter significantly.

Abstract Countries in Europe took different mobility containment measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. The European Commission asked mobile network operators to share on a voluntarily basis anonymised and aggregate mobile data to improve the quality of modelling and forecasting for the pandemic at EU level. In fact, mobility data at EU scale can help understand the dynamics of the pandemic and possibly limit the impact of future waves. Still, since a reliable and consistent method to measure the evolution of contagion at international level is missing, a systematic analysis of the relationship between human mobility and virus spread has never been conducted. A notable exceptions are France and Italy, for which data on excess deaths, an indirect indicator which is generally considered to be less affected by national and regional assumptions, are available at department and municipality level, respectively. Using this information together with anonymised and aggregated mobile data, this study shows that mobility alone can explain up to 92% of the initial spread in these two EU countries, while it has a slow decay effect after lockdown measures, meaning that mobility restrictions seem to have effectively contribute to save lives. It also emerges that internal mobility is more important than mobility across provinces and that the typical lagged positive effect of reduced human mobility on reducing excess deaths is around 14–20 days. An analogous analysis relative to Spain, for which an IgG SARS-Cov-2 antibody screening study at province level is used instead of excess deaths statistics, confirms the findings. The same approach adopted in this study can be easily extended to other European countries, as soon as reliable data on the spreading of the virus at a suitable level of granularity will be available. Looking at past data, relative to the initial phase of the outbreak in EU Member States, this study shows in which extent the spreading of the virus and human mobility are connected. The findings will support policymakers in formulating the best data-driven approaches for coming out of confinement and mostly in building future scenarios in case of new outbreaks.

Flash floods in mountainous catchments are often caused by the rainstorm, which may result in more severe consequences than plain area floods due to less timescale and a fast-flowing front of water and debris. Flash flood forecasting is a huge challenge for hydrologists and managers due to its instantaneity, nonlinearity, and dependency. Among different methods of flood forecasting, data-driven models have become increasingly popular in recent years due to their strong ability to simulate nonlinear hydrological processes. This study proposed a Support Vector Regression (SVR) model, which is a powerful artificial intelligence-based model originated from statistical learning theory, to forecast flash floods at different lead times in a small mountainous catchment. The lagged average rainfall and runoff are identified as model input variables, and the time lags associated with the model input variables are determined by the hydrological concept of the time of response. There are 69 flash flood events collected from 1984 to 2012 in a mountainous catchment in China and then used for the model training and testing. The contribution of the runoff variables to the predictions and the phase lag of model outputs are analyzed. The results show that: (i) the SVR model has satisfactory predictive performances for one to three-hours ahead forecasting; (ii) the lagged runoff variables have a more significant effect on the predictions than the rainfall variables; and (iii) the phase lag (time difference) of prediction results significantly exists in both two- and three-hours-ahead forecasting models, however, the input rainfall information can assist in mitigating the phase lag of peak flow.

Aims:The present COVID-19 pandemic (C19P) has been challenging our socities all over the world. In this work, based on massive health information daily updated, 2020- 2022, the C19P daily death numbers at a global level, are empirically modelled, analyzed and forecasted. Methods: An empirical lagged cosmic ray model is proposed to explain the C19P global daily death (GDD) record. This GDD record was modelled, with consequent forecasts for the rest of the 2022 and 2023. Complementarily, two important records for US influenza and global measles are also modelled with cosmic-ray influences with decreasing lags. Findings: The detected lagged cosmic ray inluences suggest a decaying stage for the next year (August 2022-August 2023). Self-similar modelling of errors detect and forecast decaying impacts, due to vaccine campaigns, that suggest a decaying final phase of C19P. This scenario, after to be calibrated with other self-similar models, has provided to stakeholders of significant data and criteria to define, sustain and support plans for the next year, based on cosmic ray influences. Conclusion: The empirical global modeling of the C19P based on cosmic ray influences has strongly suggested, not only a decaying scenario, but also the complex sensitivity of living organisms to variable solar (cosmic) radiation. Certainly, further research is needed. However, these scenarios provide a well-based perspective on non-linear dynamics of C19P and other future pandemics, that will complement the standard health and economic models.

Stochastic processes that exhibit cross-frequency coupling (CFC) are introduced. The ability of these processes to model observed CFC in neural recordings is investigated by comparison with published spectra. One of the proposed models, based on multiplying a pulsatile function of a low-frequency oscillation (θ) with an unobserved and high-frequency component, yields a process with a spectrum that is consistent with observation. Other models, such as those employing a biphasic pulsatile function of a low-frequency oscillation, are demonstrated to be less suitable. We introduce the full stochastic process time series model as a summation of three component weak-sense stationary (WSS) processes, namely,θ,γ, andη, withηa1/fαnoise process. Theγprocess is constructed as a product of a latent and unobserved high-frequency processxwith a function of the lagged, low-frequency oscillatory component (θ). After demonstrating that the model process is WSS, an appropriate method of simulation is introduced based upon the WSS property. This work may be of interest to researchers seeking to connect inhibitory and excitatory dynamics directly to observation in a model that accounts for known temporal dependence or to researchers seeking to examine what can occur in a multiplicative time-domain CFC mechanism.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to find out the best method for forecasting European Union Allowance (EUA) returns and determine its price determinants. The previous studies in this area have focused on a particular subset of EUA data and do not take care of the multicollinearities. The authors take EUA data from all three phases and the continuous series, adopt the principal component analysis (PCA) to eliminate multicollinearities and fit seven different homoscedastic models for a comprehensive analysis. Design/methodology/approach PCA is adopted to extract independent factors. Seven different linear regression and auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are employed for forecasting EUA returns and isolating their price determinants. The seven models are then compared and the one with minimum (root mean square error is adjudged as the best model. Findings The best model for forecasting the EUA returns of all three phases is dynamic linear regression with lagged predictors and that for forecasting EUA continuous series is ARIMA errors. The latent factors such as switch to gas (STG) and clean spread (capturing the effects of the clean dark spread, clean spark spread, switching price and natural gas price), National Allocation Plan announcements events, energy variables, German Stock Exchange index and extreme temperature events have been isolated as the price determinants of EUA returns. Practical implications The current study contributes to effective carbon management by providing a quantitative framework for analyzing cap-and-trade schemes. Originality/value This study differs from earlier studies mainly in three aspects. First, instead of focusing on a particular subset of EUA data, it comprehensively analyses the data of all the three phases of EUA along with the EUA continuous series. Second, it expressly adopts PCA to eliminate multicollinearities, thereby reducing the error variance. Finally, it evaluates both linear and non-linear homoscedastic models incorporating lags of predictor variables to isolate the price determinants of EUA.

We present the longest-duration directly dated terrestrial palaeoclimate record from the western Mediterranean region: a flowstone speleothem from Gitana Cave, southeast Spain. The main phase of growth was 274 to 58 ka, dated by multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS) U-series methods. Effective precipitation, which we consider primarily responsible for flowstone calcite δ13C variations, measured at 300 μm resolution, was higher during interglacials associated with marine oxygen isotope stages (MIS) 7 and 5, and lower during glacial MIS 6. There is a close correspondence between speleothem δ13C and sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from adjacent Atlantic Ocean cores during MIS 6, which implies that oceanic conditions are critical in controlling the western Mediterranean terrestrial moisture balance during glacial periods. Other features of our record, such as the sequence of termination II warming/moistening between approximately 133 and 127 ka, including a "pause" around 130–128 ka, and the lagged termination of MIS 5 warm intervals (5e, 5c and 5a) are similar to other terrestrial records within the Mediterranean basin, indicating climate synchroneity along the northern Mediterranean coast. The Gitana cave region also may have been a refugium for temperate species during short-lived cold/arid periods during MIS 5.

Abstract INTRODUCTION The basic science research endeavor has been abundantly and astonishingly successful in the last three decades in elucidating the mechanisms of neuro-oncologic disease and in suggesting therapeutic strategies. Clinical successes have lagged behind, and translation of promising laboratory findings into clinical practice is rare. We hypothesize that one important reason for this discordance is the use of different paradigms for designing laboratory and clinical trials, and that utilizing clinically relevant procedures could improve laboratory study impact. METHODS We identified all pre-clinical neuro-oncology therapeutic trials published in four high-impact journals between 11/2018 and 4/2019 and assigned a level of evidence (LOE) to each study using the American Academy of Neurology evidence classification system. We then identified all phase III trials of therapeutics for COVID and performed the same analysis on all preclinical studies preceding the trials. RESULTS Of the 26 neuro-oncology articles identified, 85% had a LOE of IV and 15% were class III. An analysis of successful human trials showed significantly more high quality laboratory studies supporting “successful” compared to “unsuccessful” trials (p=0.048). This same pattern was identified in phase III trials of COVID. Twenty antiviral studies failed to meet the primary endpoint; all were preceded by class III or IV LOE preclinical studies. Eight evaluable phase three studies of COVID vaccines were identified, all of which met their primary endpoints. These were supported with a mix of Class I/II (n=4) and III/IV (n=4) preclinical studies. Higher LOE by AAN criteria is associated with successful COVID therapeutic trials (p=0.0034). CONCLUSIONS Despite rigorous, elegant, and enlightening laboratory experiments, successful translation to human therapeutics remains rare. Envisioning basic science research through the lens of clinical therapeutics represents a challenging but surmountable paradigm shift that may reverse this pattern and create a more successful research enterprise in neuro-oncology and beyond.

Maturation and release of ascospores of Venturia inaequalis were assessed at Geneva and Highland, NY, and at Durham, NH, by microscopic examination of crushed pseudothecia excised from infected apple leaves that were collected weekly from orchards (squash mounts) in 14 siteyear combinations. Airborne ascospore dose was monitored at each location in each year of the study by volumetric spore traps. Additional laboratory assessments were made at Geneva to quantify release from infected leaf segments upon wetting (discharge tests). Finally, ascospore maturity was estimated for each location using a degree-day model developed in an earlier study. Ascospore maturation and release determined by squash mounts and discharge tests lagged significantly behind cumulative ascospore release as measured by volumetric spore traps in the field. The mean date of 98% ascospore discharge as determined by squash mounts or discharge tests occurred from 23 to 28 days after the mean date on which 98% cumulative ascospore release had been detected by volumetric traps. In contrast, cumulative ascospore maturity estimated by the degree-day model was highly correlated (r2 = 0.82) with observed cumulative ascospore release as monitored by the volumetric traps. Although large differences between predicted maturity and observed discharge were common during the exponential phase of ascospore development, the date of 98% cumulative ascospore maturity predicted by the model was generally within 1 to 9 calendar days of the date of 98% cumulative ascospore recovery in the volumetric traps. Cumulative ascospore discharge as monitored by the volumetric traps always exceeded 98% at 600 degree days (base = 0°C) after green tip. Estimating the relative quantity of primary inoculum indirectly by means of a degree-day model was more closely aligned with observed ascospore release, as measured by volumetric traps, than actual assessments of ascospore maturity and discharge obtained through squash mounts and discharge tests. The degree-day model, therefore, may be a more accurate predictor of ascospore depletion than squash mounts or discharged tests, and has the added advantage that it can be widely applied to generate site-specific estimates of ascospore maturity for any location where daily temperature data are available.

Background To constrain propagation and mitigate the burden of COVID-19, most countries initiated and continue to implement several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including national and regional lockdowns. In the Republic of Ireland, the first national lockdown was decreed on 23rd of March 2020, followed by a succession of restriction increases and decreases (phases) over the following year. To date, the effects of these interventions remain unclear, and particularly within differing population subsets. The current study sought to assess the impact of individual NPI phases on COVID-19 transmission patterns within delineated population subgroups in the Republic of Ireland. Methods and findings Confirmed, anonymised COVID-19 cases occurring between the 29th of February 2020 and 30th November 2020 (n = 72,654) were obtained. Segmented modelling via breakpoint regression with multiple turning points was employed to identify structural breaks across sub-populations, including primary/secondary infections, age deciles, urban/commuter/rural areas, patients with underlying health conditions, and socio-demographic profiles. These were subsequently compared with initiation dates of eight overarching NPI phases. Five distinct breakpoints were identified. The first breakpoint, associated with a decrease in the daily COVID-19 incidence, was reported within 14 days of the first set of restrictions in mid-March 2020 for most population sub-groups. Results suggest that moderately strict NPIs were more effective than the strictest Phase 5 (National Lockdown). Divergences were observed across population sub-groups; lagged response times were observed among populations >80 years, residents of rural/ commuter regions, and cases associated with a below-median deprivation score. Conclusions Study findings suggest that many NPIs have been successful in decreasing COVID-19 incidence rates, however the strictest Phase 5 NPI was not. Moreover, NPIs were not equally successful across all sub-populations, with differing response times noted. Future strategies and interventions may need to be increasingly bespoke, based on sub-population profiles and required responses.

Abstract Greenland climate variability is connected to internal and external sources of global climate forcing in six millennium simulations using Community Climate System Model, version 3. The external forcings employed are consistent with the protocols of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. Many simulated internal climate modes are characterized over the years 850–1850, including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), the east Atlantic pattern (EA), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Atlantic sea ice extent, and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Lagged correlation and multivariate regression methods connect Greenland temperatures and precipitation to these internal modes and external sources of climate variability. Greenland temperature and precipitation are found to relate most strongly to North Atlantic sea ice extent, the AMO, and the AMOC, that are themselves strongly interconnected. Furthermore, approximately half of the multidecadal variability in Greenland temperature and precipitation are captured through linear relationships with volcanic aerosol optical depth, solar insolation (including total solar irradiance and local orbital variability), the NAO, the EA, and the PDO. Relationships are robust with volcanic aerosol optical depth, solar insolation, and an index related to latitudinal shifts of the North Atlantic jet. Differences attributable to model resolution are also identified in the results, such as lower variability in the AMOC and Greenland temperature in the higher-resolution simulations. Finally, a regression model is applied to simulations of the industrial period to show that natural sources alone only explain the variability in simulated Greenland temperature and precipitation up to the 1950s and 1970s, respectively.

Subject and Purpose. The unique natural phenomena which solar eclipses are can activate coupling between the subsystems of the Earth–atmosphere–ionosphere–magnetosphere system. Following an eclipse, disturbances may get induced in all the subsystems and their associated geophysical fields. It is important that a subsystem’s response does not depend on the phase of the eclipse alone, but also on the state of space weather and the observation site coordinates. The majority of solar eclipses occur at middle and low latitudes. The maximum phase of the June 10, 2021 annular eclipse was observed at high latitudes, including the North Pole. The highlatitude ionosphere is fundamentally different from the mid- and low-latitude ionosphere as it stays in a metastable state, such that any impact may be capable of activating subsystem coupling. The relevance of this study is conditioned by the diversity of the solar eclipse effects in the high-latitude ionosphere. The purpose of this work is to present observational results concerning variations in the total electron content (TEC) in the high-latitude ionosphere in the course of the June 10, 2021 solar eclipse. Methods and Methodology. An array of eleven terrestrial GPS receive stations and eight GPS satellites were used for the observations. Results. The effects from the solar eclipse were distinctly observable at all eleven reception sites and from all the eight satellites. On the average, i.e. with random fluctuations neglected, changes in illumination at ionospheric heights were followed by decreases in the TEC. All of the observation records demonstrated a decrease in the TEC at the early stage of the eclipse. Some 60 to 100 min later the TEC attained a minimum and then returned to virtually the initial value. The lowest observed magnitude of the TEC was 1.0–5.1 TEC units, while, on the average, it was found to be 2.7 ± 1.6 TEC units, or 35 ± 18%. The greatest decrease in the TEC lagged behind the maximum phase of the solar eclipse (lowest illumination at the heights of the ionosphere) by 5–30 min, or 15.7 ± 6.8 min on the average. A few TEC records obtained at different stations showed quasi-periodic variations with the periods ranging from 5 to 19 min and amplitudes of 1 to 12%. Conclusions. The annular eclipse of June 10, 2021 acted to significantly disturb the high-latitude ionosphere where aperiodic and quasi-periodic disturbances of the TEC took place.

Nonlinear Fourier Analysis (NLFA) as developed herein begins with the nonlinear Schrödinger equation in two-space and one-time dimensions (the 2+1 NLS equation). The integrability of the simpler nonlinear Schrödinger equation in one-space and one-time dimensions (1+1 NLS) is an important tool in this analysis. We demonstrate that small-time asymptotic spectral solutions of the 2+1 NLS equation can be constructed as the nonlinear superposition of many 1+1 NLS equations, each corresponding to a particular radial direction in the directional spectrum of the waves. The radial 1+1 NLS equations interact nonlinearly with one another. We determine practical asymptotic spectral solutions of the 2+1 NLS equation that are formed from the ratio of two phase-lagged Riemann theta functions: Surprisingly this construction can be written in terms of generalizations of periodic Fourier series called (1) quasiperiodic Fourier (QPF) series and (2) almost periodic Fourier (APF) series (with appropriate limits in space and time). To simplify the discourse with regard to QPF and APF Fourier series, we call them NLF series herein. The NLF series are the solutions or approximate solutions of the nonlinear dynamics of water waves. These series are indistinguishable in many ways from the linear superposition of sine waves introduced theoretically by Paley and Weiner, and exploited experimentally and theoretically by Barber and Longuet-Higgins assuming random phases. Generally speaking NLF series do not have random phases, but instead employ phase locking. We construct the asymptotic NLF series spectral solutions of 2+1 NLS as a linear superposition of sine waves, with particular amplitudes, frequencies and phases. Because of the phase locking the NLF basis functions consist not only of sine waves, but also of Stokes waves, breather trains, and superbreathers, all of which undergo complex pair-wise nonlinear interactions. Breather trains are known to be associated with rogue waves in solutions of nonlinear wave equations. It is remarkable that complex nonlinear dynamics can be represented as a generalized, linear superposition of sine waves. NLF series that solve nonlinear wave equations offer a significant advantage over traditional periodic Fourier series. We show how NLFA can be applied to numerically model nonlinear wave motions and to analyze experimentally measured wave data. Applications to the analysis of SINTEF wave tank data, measurements from Currituck Sound, North Carolina and to shipboard radar data taken by the U. S. Navy are discussed. The ubiquitous presence of coherent breather packets in many data sets, as analyzed by NLFA methods, has recently led to the discovery of breather turbulence in the ocean: In this case, nonlinear Fourier components occur as strongly interacting, phase locked, densely packed breather modes, in contrast to the previously held incorrect belief that ocean waves are weakly interacting sine waves.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Therapeutic successes in neuro-oncology have lagged dramatically behind exciting laboratory discoveries, and successful translation of promising laboratory findings into clinical practice is rare. We hypothesize that one important reason for this discordance is the use of very different paradigms for designing laboratory and clinical trials, and that utilizing clinically relevant procedures could improve laboratory study impact. METHODS We identified all pre-clinical neuro-oncology therapeutic trials published in four high-impact journals between 11/2018 and 4/2019, and assigned a level of evidence (LOE) to each study using the American Academy of Neurology evidence classification system. We also extracted details about statistical techniques, funding, and institutional setting. RESULTS Of the 26 articles identified, 85% had a LOE of IV (highest-I, lowest-IV) and 15% were class III. Factors contributing to the low LOE included lack of randomization (65%) or allocation concealment (100%), absence of masked assessment (96%), and no comparison of treatment and control groups with respect to prognostically relevant characteristics (92%). Effect size and confidence interval reporting, power calculation, correction for multiple hypothesis testing, and multivariate analysis were absent in 92%, 92%, 100%, 88%, and 92% of studies respectively. The “reverse” analysis (starting with successful human trials and analyzing existing pre-clinical support studies) showed significantly more high quality laboratory studies supporting “successful” compared to “unsuccessful” trials (p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS When rigorous human clinical trials criteria are applied to therapeutic laboratory studies, laboratory study LOE is uniformly poor. For laboratory research intended to inform clinical trial design and improve clinical outcomes, this situation dooms most basic science research to fail in the clinical arena. The steps required to solve this problem are challenging but addressable, and costs associated with the solution are dwarfed by the expense of early phase human trials which are destine to failure.

Abstract Introduction: For many forms of cancers, survival improvement in the AYA population has lagged behind that of younger patients. One contributing factor could be differences in drug metabolism and tolerance of cancer treatment. Although previous studies have documented greater vincristine-related neurotoxicity (VRNT) in AYA vs. younger patients, comparative vincristine PK studies have yielded mixed results with no clear difference in PK related to age. One limitation of these studies is that age, rather than a more physiological assessment of developmental maturity, was used for the comparison. The primary aim of this study was to determine whether developmental differences in vincristine PK related to Tanner Stage could be detected in a sample of children and AYAs undergoing treatment for ALL. Our hypothesis was that vincristine PK would be related to Tanner Stage. Methods: From September 2014-March 2015, a purposeful sample of 30 patients with a diagnosis of ALL treated at Children's Hospital of Los Angeles were recruited to this IRB-approved study either prior to starting Induction phase or during Maintenance phase. Tanner Stage was classified as ≤2 or ≥4, excluding Tanner Stage 3. Vincristine blood levels were obtained around the first dose during Induction or any single monthly dose during Maintenance at pre-specified time points: 0 min, 10 min, 30 min, 1 hour, 12 hour (Induction only), and 24 hours. For all patients, the vincristine dose was 1.5 mg/m2 (max 2 mg). Vincristine levels were determined by high performance liquid chromatography. Mean vincristine clearance was compared using the independent T-test. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analysis via backward selection was performed using Tanner Stage, age, sex, BMI, fluconazole exposure, and treatment phase as predictors. P-values were two-sided with significance set at < 0.05. Results: The age range was 1-24 yrs (< 10 yrs, n=12; 10+ yrs, n=18). 15 (50.0%) patients were female; and 26 (86.7%) were Hispanic. BMI was underweight/normal for 20 (66.7%). Fluconazole was being administered to 19 (63.3%). Tanner Stage was ≤ 2 for 14 patients (46.7%) and ≥ 4 for 16 (53.3%). Mean vincristine clearance (standard error) for the Tanner ≤ 2 and ≥ 4 groups was 61.14 (18.42) and 68.75 (10.05) L/h*m2, respectively (p=0.71). As summarized in Tables 1 and 2, in both univariate and multivariate analyses no predictors, including Tanner Stage, were associated with vincristine clearance. Conclusions: In this pilot study, we were unable to detect an association between vincristine clearance and Tanner Stage. These data suggest that even when using a measure more reflective of physiological maturity than age, substantial developmental differences in vincristine clearance appear to be lacking. This calls into question the potential explanation of altered clearance for the increased VRNT observed in AYAs, and suggests that future investigations should be directed toward potential developmental differences in vincristine pharmacodynamics. Our data may have implications for understanding other differences in chemotherapy toxicity observed in AYAs. Table 1. Univariate Analysis of Vincristine Clearance Predictor Clearance Unit: L/h*m2 Diff (SE) F-test P-value Tanner stage ≥4 vs. ≤2 7.615 (20.279) 0.71012 Age 10+ vs. <10 13.523 (20.545) 0.51577 Phase of therapy Maintenance vs. Induction -6.971 (20.288) 0.73371 Gender Female vs. Male 4.307 (20.269) 0.83326 BMI group OW/Obese vs. UW/Normal 9.931 (21.434) 0.64669 Fluconazole use Yes vs. No -2.799 (21.041) 0.89512 Table 2. Multivariate analysis of Vincristine Clearance Model #1 Model # 2 Endpoint Predictor Diff (SE) LRT P-value Predictor Diff (SE) LRT P-value Clearance Unit: L/h*m2 Age 10+ vs <10 21.4211 (23.3859) 0.3380 Tanner stage ≥4 vs. ≤2 13.8334 (23.1741) 0.5306 Phase Maintenance vs Induction -16.7252 (22.9644) 0.4449 Phase Maintenance vs Induction -13.3936 (23.1741) 0.5436 Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

134 Background: COVID-19 pandemic has caused delay in cancer diagnosis and treatment risking increase in cancer-related mortality. COVID vaccines offer hope to control pandemic and ensure uninterrupted cancer care. Per CDC, as of May 25, 2021, vaccination rates for minorities, especially African Americans (AA) and Hispanics (HISP) have lagged behind (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographic). Our study was undertaken to explore attitudes of Chicago’s inner-city minority cancer population towards COVID-19 vaccination when vaccines became available (Dec 2020) and 5 months later (May 2021). Methods: Cook County Health is a large public health care system in the USA. A voluntary brief 15 question anonymous survey was offered at clinic intake by the Medical Assistant (MA) in Oncology and Hematology clinics for 1 month starting December 16, 2020. The survey was IRB exempt. A follow up one-question survey was given for 1 week in May 2021 at one MA intake station asking if patients had received or planned to receive the vaccine. No identifying information was collected. Results: Initial phase: A total 505 completed surveys were received consisting of 199 (39%) AA, 201 (40%) HISP, 51 (10%) Whites, 38 (8%) Asians and 3% other. There were 58% women, 58% patients with education high-school/less and 91% with annual household income <$40,000. Overall, 320 (63%) patients were agreeable to take/consider taking the vaccine now, if available, 134 (26.5%) wanted to wait and see while 51 (10%) absolutely refused the vaccine. Reasons for hesitation (wait and see) were vaccine being experimental (51%) and not wanting to be the first to receive (49%), not trusting the vaccine information (16%). Reasons for absolutely refusing were vaccine being experimental (75%) and not trusting the information (47%), did not believe in vaccines (12%). About 62% of AA, 69% HISP, 68% Asians and 49% Whites were agreeable to the COVID vaccine (p<0.05). Wait and see was reported by 26% AA, 25% HISP, 32% Asians and 29% Whites (p=NS). Absolute denials were 12%, 6% and 22% among AA, HISP and Whites respectively (p<0.05). The most common reason for denial for all 3 groups was belief that vaccine was still experimental (71% AA, 85% HISP and 73% Whites). The second most common reason reported for denial was mistrust of the vaccine information reported by 50% AA, 38% HISP and 36% Whites respectively. Second phase: Of 162 consecutive patients asked if they had received the vaccine, 119 (73%) had received 1 or both vaccine doses, 18 (11%) were planning to receive it while 26 (16%) had no plans to get vaccinated as yet. Conclusions: Unlike national vaccination rates, inner-city minority cancer population has been very accepting of the COVID vaccines as evidenced by high vaccination rates. AA and Hispanics were more open to vaccination than whites. These high rates in AA and HISP is especially encouraging considering this population has historically had lower reported vaccination rates.

Background: Down syndrome (DS) is the commonest of the congenital genetic defects whose incidence has been rising in recent years for unknown reasons. This study aims to assess the impact of substance and cannabinoid use on the DS Rate (DSR) and assess their possible causal involvement. Methods: An observational population-based epidemiological study 1986-2016 was performed utilizing geotemporospatial and causal inferential analysis. Participants included all patients diagnosed with DS and reported to state based registries with data obtained from National Birth Defects Prevention Network of Centers for Disease Control. Drug exposure data was from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) a nationally representative sample interviewing 67,000 participants annually. Drug exposures assessed were: cigarette consumption, alcohol abuse, analgesic/opioid abuse, cocaine use and last month cannabis use. Covariates included ethnicity and median household income from US Census Bureau; maternal age of childbearing from CDC births registries; and cannabinoid concentrations from Drug Enforcement Agency. Results: NSDUH reports 74.1% response rate. Other data was population-wide. DSR was noted to rise over time and with cannabis use and cannabis-use quintile. In the optimal geospatial model lagged to four years terms including Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol and cannabigerol were significant (from β-est. = 4189.96 (95%C.I. 1924.74, 6455.17), p = 2.9 × 10−4). Ethnicity, income, and maternal age covariates were not significant. DSR in states where cannabis was not illegal was higher than elsewhere (β-est. = 2.160 (1.5, 2.82), R.R. = 1.81 (1.51, 2.16), p = 4.7 × 10−10). In inverse probability-weighted mixed models terms including cannabinoids were significant (from β-estimate = 18.82 (16.82, 20.82), p < 0.0001). 62 E-value estimates ranged to infinity with median values of 303.98 (IQR 2.50, 2.75 × 107) and 95% lower bounds ranged to 1.1 × 1071 with median values of 10.92 (IQR 1.82, 7990). Conclusions. Data show that the association between DSR and substance- and cannabinoid- exposure is robust to multivariable geotemporospatial adjustment, implicate particularly cannabigerol and Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol, and fulfil quantitative epidemiological criteria for causality. Nevertheless, detailed experimental studies would be required to formally demonstrate causality. Cannabis legalization was associated with elevated DSR’s at both bivariate and multivariable analysis. Findings are consistent with those from Hawaii, Colorado, Canada, Australia and Europe and concordant with several cellular mechanisms. Given that the cannabis industry is presently in a rapid growth-commercialization phase the present findings linking cannabis use with megabase scale genotoxicity suggest unrecognized DS risk factors, are of public health importance and suggest that re-focussing the cannabis debate on multigenerational health concerns is prudent.

ntroduction. Neural correlates underlying the processing of emotional information, influence of emotional interference on cognitive control, gender difference in such activities remain a topic of research and discussion.Purpose. To study the connectivity of the brain regions involved in the processing of emotional information in left-handers, based on the EEG data obtained during their passage the emotional Stroop test (EST).Methods. EEG was registered during subjectpassage the EST successively two times. In EST a series including 240 words were presented at the center of the computer screen in one of two colors: red or green, words were emotional (negative) or neutral, shown in pseudorandom order. Some of these stimuli (target words names of animals and plants) participants were instructed to ignore (do not press any keys). Subjects were asked to respond with right hand (pressing P on a keyboard) for words printed in red and with left hand (pressing Q on a keyboard) for words printed in green. It was investigated source level functional connectivity (FC) in two groups of left-handers (17 to 22 years old): women (n=10) and men (n=10). FC was analysed between 21 regions of interest (ROI), selected on the base of fMRI research literature. Connections between ROIs were assessed using lagged phase synchronization (LPS) with eLORETA complex.Results. Statistically significant differences in FC by LPS between men and women groups were found only in first passage of EST. Particularly, FCof women, compared to men was: -higher between anterior cingulate cortex and left middle temporal area in delta band;-lower between left hippocampal formation and right frontal eye fields in beta-1;-and higher in beta-2 between right frontal eye fields and right anterior insula.were shorter for both emotional and neutral words. The interference effect was observed in both tests in women and only in the first test in men. Interference effect also was higher for responses with left hand for both groups. Repeated passage of the emotional Stroop test leads to reducing the effect of interference in men but not in women.Originality.The main neural networks have been identified, which in left-handed women are more involved in the processing of negative emotional information than in left-handed men.Conclusion. Compared to men, women have stronger connections of two areas of the brain involved in processing negatively colored emotional information, with other areas of the brain. The anterior cingulate cortex, which is considered to playan important role in attention and executive functions, is connected to the left middle temporal area, involved in the analysis of visual movement and words processing. Activation of theright anterior insular cortex, which is closely related to emotionalprocessing, is connected to the right frontal eye fields, which are known to play a key role in the goal directed eyes movements.Contrary, area of right frontal eye fields of men is more tightly connected to the contralateral left hippocampus, and is involved in semantic rather than emotional processing of information.Key words: emotional Stroop test;gender differences; left-handers; EEG; functional connectivity

The quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is escalating at an alarming rate with every passing year alongside the modernization of our economy. Unfortunately, the majority of this waste remains uncollected or ends up in open dumping and followed by uncontrolled burning. Citing the deep-rooted consequences, open dumping should be absolutely abandoned and scientific interventions should be aggressively exercised to reclaim the municipal brownfields. The present research work undertook the judicial task of assessing the comparative feasibility of biomining and scientific capping as a technology selection for reclamation of about a decade old 120 million tons of waste chunk laying at Jawahar Nagar dump yard. Primary dump samples were collected from various locations, considering depth as a variable. While leachate and groundwater samples were collected from Malkaram lake and preinstalled borewells receptively. Additionally, the ambient air quality and noise level also been ascertained within the buffer zone. The blended representative solid sample was segregated using a 70 mm mesh size trommel into organic and inorganic fractions. The organic fraction was composted using a lab-scale aerobic static pile composting (ASPC) while the trommel reject was processed as refuse derived fuel (RDF). Evidently, the compost lagged quality and depicted nutrient deficiency. While the burning of RDF produced siloxane gas, significantly due to elevated silicon level in the primary waste. Furthermore, due to the prolonged leaching tenure and seasonal dilution, the concentration of legacy leachate was relatively weaker. Borewell samples collected from a depth of 20 feet also portrayed minor contamination up to 500 meters horizontal radius. The issue of leachability can solely be resolved with the capping of the existing dump and the end product quality derived from the biomining process is highly questionable. Thus, handling such large quantity capping is a befitting option over biomining for Jawahar Nagar dumpsite. INTRODUCTION Presently, in India due to rapid urbanization and industrialization, the generation of MSW has been increasing tremendously and also expected to continue a similar trend in the future (Scott, 1995; Bhat et al., 2017; Sethurajan et al., 2018; Sharma et al., 2018). Annually, the comprehensive urban MSW generation in India is more than 62 million tons. Metro cities are the mammoth contributor of the entire chunk and waste production had already reached an alarming figure of 50,000 tonnes/day. While the waste generation from the tier 2 cities is also rigorously escalating and presently contribute up to 20,000 tones/day (Sharma et al., 2018). A study conducted by the central pollution control board (CPCB) revealed MSW generation in India is increasing at a distressing rate of 5 % per annum with a sharp escalation in the quantities of domestic hazardous waste (Sharma et al., 2018). With major financial constraints, inefficacy of collection, treatment, and disposal incurs further reasons to worry. So far India has miserably failed to set up wholesome source segregation and collection method. Presently, the country spends more than 60% of its annual waste management budget only in collection. Besides, only 20% or less of the collected materials are scientifically handled and treated. Citing the statistics, it is evident that the majority of the MSW is simply gets dumped on the low laying grounds located somewhere on the outskirts of the cities. The precipitation, infiltration, surface water runoff, bird menace, rodent interference etc. triggers the vulnerability of waste and leads to mal odor, ground and surface water contamination, human and environmental health deterioration (Jayawardhana et al., 2016). Further, the perseverance of the inorganic and inert fractions leads to soil contamination, poses a fire threat, and also may incur carcinogenicity and acute toxicity among the animals (Mir et al., 2021). There are numerous techniques for the reclamation and remediation of the dumpsites, includes processes such as capping and closure, in-situ vitrification, sub-surface cut-off walls, and waste biomining (Chakrabarti and Dubey, 2015; Thakare and Nandi, 2016). Waste biomining is a stable way to get rid of the entire range of problems associated with open dumping and reclaim valuable land (Kaksonen et al., 2017). There are several instances including reclamation of Mumbai Gorai dump yard by IL & FS Environment, 70 – 80 years old 12,00,000 tons of dump clearance by Nagar Nigam Indore within a minute span of 3 years and many more. But the process of biomining is highly sensitive and case-specific. The success of the process solely depends on factors such as characteristics of the waste, efficacy of the effective microorganism culture, acceptability of the processed end product at the local market etc. (Jerez, 2017; Banerjee et al., 2017; Venkiteela, 2020). Contrarily, though the scientific capping is not an end-to-end solution but still advisable in the cases where the quantity of waste is gigantic, land scarcity is prevalent, no nearby industries to consume the end products etc. Mehta et al. (2018) have also supported the above claim based on the assessment of locations specific MSW dump reclamation case studies. While in another Nagpur-based case study conducted by Ashootosh et al. (2020) reported the superiority of the biominingprocess over simple land capping due to the favorability of the local conditions. Capping eliminates the environmental interference and thereby reduces biosphere contamination and leachate generation. Further, it captivates rodent and vector breeding and thereby curtails the spreading of communicable diseases and improves aesthetics. But right consolidation through compaction and execution is utmost necessary in the above case. As non-compaction and faulty sloping will easily lead to heavy settlement and slope failure (Berkun et al., 2005; Al-Ghouti et al., 2021). The present study has been pursued with the primary objective to run a techno-commercial assessment between scientific capping and biomining. While the secondary objective was to ascertain the level of contamination and propose mitigative measures. MATERIALS AND METHODStudy Area Spanning over 350 acres of a precious piece of land at the outskirts of Hyderabad city, Jawahar Nagar dumping yard was brutally utilized by the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) for open dumping for a prolonged tenure of 10 years. It housed nearly 12 lakh metric tons of heterogeneous solid and domestic hazardous waste and continues polluting until 2015, until the Ramky group was offered to cap the legacy dumping and scientifically handle the site. The present study has been facilitated at Hyderabad Municipal Solid Waste Limited, formerly known as Jawahar Nagar dump yard to analyze and assess the feasibility of bio-mining as handling and management alternate to the existing practice of scientific capping. The epicenter of processing and disposal facility is lying approximately on the cross-section of 17°31'24.45"N and 78°35'23.37"E. As per the contract, the comprehensive legacy dumping to be capped in three phases over about 150 acres of area and Ramky has significantly entered the phase two of the operation only within a span of five years by successfully capping more than half of the legacy footprint. Sampling Methodology The waste pile was divided into three layers namely, base, middle, and top. A uniform amount of sample was collected from the successive layers of all five different corners which cover north, south, east, west, and central of the garbage pile. Sampling inspections were performed using a manual auger besides large samples were collected using a JCB excavator. The top six-inch layer of the pile was removed to avoid any contamination while collecting the samples and 5-10 kg of sample was collected from each of the locations. Further, intermediate and bottom layer samples were collected by digging a 500 mm diameter hole through the heap. A composite was prepared by a homogenized blending of all the fifteen grub samples. The blend was distributed into four equal quadrants and the top and bottom quadrants were eliminated diagonally while the left-over quadrants were mixed thoroughly. This process was repeated until a sample of the required bulk of 20 kg is obtained. Surface and subsurface water samples from borewell were collected in and around the facility. Piezometric monitoring borewells located near the landfills were utilized for the subsurface sample collection. While a rainwater pond turned leachate lake named Malkaram was determined as the primary source for leachate collection. Buffer samples were collected from Ambedkar Nagar, the nearby colony exiting at a distance of only 300 meters. Lab-scale Experimentation The representative sample was characterized for composition and further screened through a 70 mm mesh size trommel. The trommel permeate was considered as the organic fraction while the reject was mostly inorganics and inert. The organics were subjected to ASPC. The quantity of the air required is arrived using the method delineated below (Figure 1). MSW Pile size: 2m x 0.5m x 0.5m Volume of pile: 0.5 m3 Average Density of MSW: 620 Kg/m3 Weight of pile: 310 Kg Nitrogen required for matured compost: 9300 mg/kg dry : 9300 X 310 mg : 2.88 x 106 mg : 2.88 Kg Total air required: 2.88 x 100/76 [as Nitrogen in air is 76% by weight] : 3.79 Kg of dry air : 3.79/1.225 m3 [@ 15 deg C density of air 1.225 kg/m3] : 3.1 m3 This air is to be supplied for 100 min / day for 0.5 m pile Air flow rate required: 3.1 x 60/100 = 1.86 m3/h (for practical purpose a flowrate of 2 m3/h was maintained). The maturation period was considered as 28 days and post-maturation, the stabilized material was further cured for 24 hours and screened using 12 mm and 4 mm trommel respectively to obtain the desired product quality and particle size. Whereas, the trommel reject was evenly spreader on the copper trays and dried in an oven at 1050C for 2 hours. The dried material was micronized to the size of 50 mm or below using a scissor and inert such as glass, sand, stone etc. were segregated manually (Mohan and Joseph, 2020). Concurrently, a bench-scale capped landfill prototype was built using the below-mentioned procedure to evaluate the factors such as settlement and slope stability. A 30 mm thick low permeable soil was laid on the top of the waste, followed by a 60 mm layer of compacted clay liner (CCL). Each join between successive liner material was closely monitored. A 1.5 mm thick HDPE liner was placed on the top of the CCL. A 285 GSM geotextile membrane was placed as the successive above layer followed by a 15 mm thick drainage media layer. A further layer of geotextile membrane was placed on top of the drainage media for better stabilization, grip, and strength. The top vegetative soil layer of 45 mm thickness was laid off on top of the geotextile media and St. Augustine grass was rooted (Cortellazzo et al., 2020; Ashford et al., 2000). 2.4 Sample Analysis pH, Electrical Conductivity (EC) and Turbidity of the samples were analyzed using pH, EC-TDS, and Nephelometer of Mettler Toledo. The pH meter was calibrated with the buffer solution of 4.0, 7.0 & 9.12 at a controlled temperature. EC-TDS meter was calibrated with 0.1 M KCL having 12.8 mS/cm of conductivity. Nephelometer was calibrated with Formazine solution of 10 & 100 NTU. Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), (mg/L) was performed using the gravimetric method at 1800C in the oven. Titrimetric parameters such as Total Alkalinity as CaCO3 (mg/L), Total Hardness as CaCO3 (mg/L), Chloride as Cl- (mg/L), Calcium as Ca2+ (mg/L), Residual Free Chlorine (RFC), (mg/L) were analyzed using APHA (American Public Health Associations) method, 23rd Edition, 2017. Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen (mg/L) and Ammonical Nitrogen (mg/L) were performed through distillation followed by titration with H2SO4 as a titrant. Sulphide as S2- was done with the Iodometric method after distillation. Each titrimetric parameter was analyzed in triplicate after standardizing the titrant with required reagents and crossed checked by keeping a check standard. Sodium as Na (mg/L) and Potassium as K (mg/L) were performed using Flame Photometer. The photometer was calibrated with different standards from 10 to 100 (mg/L) standard solutions. The leachate sample was diluted enough to get the value within the standard range and cross-checked with check standards at the same time. Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), (mg/L) was performed using the open reflux method for 2 hours at 1500C in COD Digestor. Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), (mg/L) was performed using the alkali iodide azide method for 3 days. The samples were kept in a BOD incubator at 270C for 3 days. It was kept in duplicate to have a check on quality control. Sulphate was analyzed by the gravimetric method instead of turbidimetric or through UV-Visible spectrophotometer as its concentration was found more than 40 mg/L. Nitrate as NO3- was analyzed after filtration at 220-275 nm, while Hexavalent Chromium as Cr6+ was analyzed at 540 nm in the UV-Vis. Parameters like Cyanide as CN-, Fluoride as F-, and Phenolic Compounds were gone through a distillation process followed by UV-Vis. The distillation process ensures the removal of interferences presents either positive or negative. For the parameters like Total Iron or Ferric Iron, the samples were digested properly with the required reagents on the hot plate before analyzing in UV-Vis. For the metal analysis the water samples were digested at a temperature of 1000C using aqua regia as a media. The samples were digested to one-fourth of the volume on a hot plate. The recommended wavelengths as per APHA 3120 B were selected for each of the metals. The standard graph was plotted for each of the metals before analysis and crossed checked with the check standard at the same time. Parameters such as bulk density and particle size were performed through the certified beaker and sieve. The percentage of moisture content was estimated using the oven by keeping the compost sample for 2 hours at 1050C. C/N ratio was estimated through CHNS analyzer keeping sulfanilamide as a check standard. The analysis was performed by extracting the desired component in the desired solution prescribed in the method followed by converting the same from mg/L to mg/Kg. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION An exhaustive bench-study has been pursued and real-time samples were collected and analyzed for all possible parameters to determine the pros and cons attributed to both processes. The investigation begins by collecting the samples and concluded by impact assessment studies inclusive of the buffer zone. Both solid, liquid, and gaseous samples were precisely investigated to opt for the best solution. A detailed finding of the investigation is summarized below. Primarily, the representative solid sample was characterized through a manual separation process and the results are portrayed in Figure 1. Compost Characterization ASPC of the organic fraction has resulted in a recovery of 46.7% of the initial load. While 53.3% of the influent mass were inert and barely degradable fraction contributes to reject, the rest 4.1% is miscellaneous process loss. The processed compost was extensively analyzed including for metal contamination and the same is tabulated in Table 1. The value of C/N ratio, OC, TN, K2O, P2O5, and NPK evidently portrays the shortcoming in terms of nutrient availability. Though it is highly enriched in organic carbon and thus the same can be effectively utilized as a soil preconditioner. Ayilara et al. (2020) also reported a similar finding, where the city compost sourced from MSW lagged major plant nutrients. RDF Characterization Processed trommel rejects constitute cloth, rexine, leather, jute, paper, plastics, coir and other inert contributed to RDF. The fraction of inert was as high as 37.2% of the overall RDF mass and it mostly constituted glass and sand. The combined weight of sand and glass fragments contributed 73.5% of the total inert, while the rest was stone and small brickbats. The higher level of silicon associated with the presence of glass and sand yielded siloxane and triggered the possibility of kiln corrosion. A detailed RDF analysis report is enclosed in Table 2. The values explicitly portray the quality of RDF is moderately lower and higher salts concentration is extremely prevalent. With relatively lower NCV and such high salt concentration, the above specimen will certainly pose a corrosion threat to the kiln and shall be either neglected as kiln feed or can be utilized after dilution with Grade III RDF quality. Further, such high ash generation will also induct high transportation and landfill charges. Leachate Characterization The Malkaram leachate lake is the end result of prolonged, slow, and steady mixing of the legacy leachate through the existing fissure cracks in the sheath rock bottom profile. Apparently, the concentration of leachate is significantly lower due to the dilution. Samples were analyzed in triplicates and the mean value is tabulated here in Table 3. The metal concertation and rest of the parameter values are well within the secondary treatment influent range, except for TDS. Thus, a modular aerobic biological treatment unit such as moving bed biofilm bioreactor (MBBR) or membrane bioreactor (MBR) would be a well-suited pick. However, a reverse osmosis (RO) system needs to be installed to get rid of the high TDS content. The permeate of RO can be reused back into the system. Whereas, the reject can be converted into dried powder through forced evaporation mechanisms. The higher concentration of salts in RDF collaterally justifies the elevated TDS level in leachate. In a leachate impact assessment study performed by El-Salam and Abu-Zuid (2015) the reported BOD/COD ratio of 0.69 is greater than double the value of 0.301 reported in Table 3. Though the difference in both the values are quite high, it is relatable and justifiable by the huge age difference of the source waste. The primarily characterized data is of a fresh leachate generated from regular MSW, while the later one is from a decade old waste that barely has any unstabilized organic content. Groundwater Contamination The obvious reason for downward leachate infiltration and osmotic movement facilitates groundwater contamination. Both surface and subsurface water samples were collected within the dump yard and the buffer zone and analyzed using the standard methods. The results are portrayed in Table 4. The slightly alkaline pH of the borewell sample is an indication of the ongoing anaerobic process. The dissolved oxygen value of 3.5 mg/L further validates the correlation. Higher TDS and hardness values are self-indicative of elevated salt concentration in source waste. Eventually, the same interfered with the RDF quality. Positively in the case of all the parameters, a successive decrement in pollution concentration has been spotted from dump ground towards the buffer zone. In a similar study conducted by Singh et al. (2016) at Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh the reported concentration of the parameters is significantly higher than reported in Table 4. The basic reason behind variation is the dissimilarities of the local soil profile. The sandy and clay loam soil profile of Varanasi allows a greater rate of percolation and infiltration. While the bottom sheath rock profile at Jawahar Nagar permits the only a minute to little percolation rate. The difference in percolation rate is directly correlated to the concentration levels in this case. Contrarily, Kurakalva et al. (2016) have reported much-elevated pollutant concertation both in ground and surface water for a study conducted at the same site in 2016. The higher concentration is relatable to the fact of the non-closure of the open dump back then. Capping activity had at Jawahar Nagar gained its pace 2018 onwards and capping for the primary section of 70 acres got concluded only during mid of 2019. Due to the decrement in runoff and percolation, the quality of both surface and subsurface water has improved drastically. Impact Assessment The odor and groundwater contamination are two of the primary issues that triggered a massive public agitation initially. The root causes of both the issues are identified as rainwater percolation and anaerobic digestion respectively. Eventually, the completion of the capping process would resolve both the problems effectively. Other non-tangential impacts include nausea; headache; irritation of the eye, nasal cavity, and throat; diarrhoeal diseases; vector-borne disease, cattle toxicity etc. Scientific capping can easily cater as the wholesome solution for all (Cortellazzo et al., 2020). Yu et al. (2018) had performed an extensive study to comprehend the relativity of respiratory sickness and MSW borne air pollution. The study made a couple of dreadful revelations such as gases released due to the anaerobic digestion of MSW such as methane, hydrogen sulphide, and ammonia incur detrimental impact on Lysozyme and secretory immunoglobulin A (SIgA). While SO2 was reported as the lung capacity and functionality reducer. Further, a gender-specific study executed by the same research group revealed, air pollution impacts more severely on male children than the female and retards immune functions. Presently, the area of 351 acres has been developed as Asia’s one of the largest state of the art municipal solid waste processing and disposal facility by Ramky Enviro Engineers Limited. This ensured zero dumping and no further environmental interventions. As legal compliance, the facility monitors the quality of groundwater and ambient air quality in and around the facility on monthly basis to assure the biosafety. The variation in concentration of various monitoring parameters between 2012 to 2020 is summarized in Figure 2. The concentration of each of the parameters are showcased in ppm and a standard equipment error was settled at 3% for respirable dust sampler and multi-gas analyzer (Taheri et al., 2014). Despite all parameter values have gradually increased except for methane, the facility still managed to maintain them well under the regulatory limits. The decrement in methane concentration is directly correlated to the practice of aerobic composting and aeration-based secondary treatment that prevented the formation of the anaerobic atmosphere and henceforth methane generation. While for the rest of the parameters the increment in values is quite substantial and predictable due to the sudden escalation in MSW generation in the past decade in correlation with Gross domestic product (GDP) enhancement. The observed and interpreted impacts due to the elevated pollutant level are in-line with the georeferenced findings reported by Deshmukh and Aher (2016) based on a study conducted at Sangamner, Maharashtra. CONCLUSION The study critically analyzed and investigated every techno-environmental and socio-economic aspect correlated to open dumping. The bench-scale experimentation revealed the efficiency of the single liner scientific capping is fair enough to eliminate any further rainwater infiltration, however, it has no control over the generation of leachate due to the inherent moisture. Internal moisture related issue was anyhow compensated with pertinent compaction prior to dispose of the waste. Contrarily, both the products derived through the biomining process namely, compost and RDF lagged quality due to scantier nutrient content and higher salt and silicon content respectively. Besides, impact assessment studies concede the pollutant concentration in groundwater in and around the plant has drastically diminished post-July 2019 due to the partial completion of waste capping. It also abetted lowering the dust and odor issues relatively in the surrounding. ACKNOWLEDGMENT The authors would like to sincerely acknowledge GHMC, Hyderabad Integrated Municipal Solid Waste Limited, and Ramky Enviro Engineers Limited for enabling us to pursue the sample collection and other necessary onsite activities. Further, the authors would like to register profound acknowledgment to EPTRI for supporting us with the essential experimental facilities. REFERENCES Sharma, A., Gupta, A.K., Ganguly, R. (2018), Impact of open dumping of municipal solid waste on soil properties in mountainous region. 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Summary Understanding reservoir behavior is the key to reservoir management. This study shows how energy modeling with rapid material-balance techniques, followed by numerical simulations with streamlines and finite-difference methods, aided understanding of reservoir-flow behavior. South Rumaila's long and elongated Zubair reservoir experiences uneven aquifer support from the western and eastern flanks. This uneven pressure support prompted injection in the weaker eastern flank to boost reservoir energy. We learned that aquifer influx provided nearly 95% of the reservoir's energy in its 50-year producing life, with water injection contributing less than 5% of the total energy supply. The west-to-east aquifer energy support is approximately 29:1, indicating the dominance of aquifer support in the west. Streamline simulations with a 663,000-cell model corroborated many of the findings learned during the material-balance phase of this study. Cursory adjustments to aquifer properties led to acceptable match with pulse-neutron capture or PNC-derived-time-lapse oil/water contact (OWC) surfaces. This global-matching approach speeded up the history-matching exercise in that performance of most wells was reproduced, without resorting to local adjustments of the cell properties. The history-matched model showed that the top layers contained the attic oil owing to lack of perforations. Lessons learned from this study include the idea that the material-balance work should precede any numerical flow-simulation study because it provides invaluable insights into reservoir-drive mechanisms and integrity of various input data, besides giving a rapid assessment of the reservoir's flow behavior. Credible material-balance work leaves very little room for adjustment of original hydrocarbons in place, which constitutes an excellent starting point for numerical models. Introduction Before the advent of widespread use of computers and numeric simulators, material-balance (MB) studies were the norm for reservoir management. In this context, Stewart et al. (1954), Irby et al. (1962), and McEwen (1962) presented useful studies. Most popular MB methods include those of Havlena and Odeh (1963), Campbell and Campbell (1978), and Tehrani (1985), among others. Pletcher (2002) provides a comprehensive review of the available MB techniques. In the modern era, classical MB studies seldom precede a full-field numeric modeling, presumably because MB is implicit in this approach. Nonetheless, we think valuable lessons can be learned from analytic MB studies at a fraction of time needed for detailed numeric modeling, preceded by geologic modeling. Of course, the value and amount of information derived from a multicell numeric model cannot be compared to a single-cell MB model. But, an analytic MB study can be an excellent precursor to any detailed 3D modeling effort. Although this point has been made by others (Dake 1994; Pletcher 2002), practice has, however, lagged conventional wisdom. In this paper, we attempt to show the value of a zero-dimensional MB study prior to doing detailed 3D numeric modeling, using both streamline and finite-difference methods. Streamline simulations speeded up the history-matching effort by a factor of three. However, we used the finite-difference approach in prediction runs for its greater flexibility in invoking various producing rules. Initially, the MB study provided key learnings about gross reservoir behavior very rapidly. In particular, energy contributions made by different drive mechanisms, such as uneven natural water influx and water injection, were of great interest for ongoing reservoir-management activities. Estimating in-place hydrocarbon volume and relative strength of the aquifer in the western and eastern flanks constituted key objectives of this study segment. Following the MB segment of the study, we pursued full-field match of historical data (pressure and OWC) with a streamline flow simulator to take advantage of rapid turnaround time. Thereafter, prediction runs were made with the finite-difference model to answer the ongoing water-injection question in the eastern flank of the reservoir. We learned that water injection should be turned off for improved sweep, leading to increased ultimate oil recovery. In addition, the numeric models identified the presence of remaining oil in the attic for future exploitation.

With the increase in computing power, large eddy simulation (LES) emerges as a promising technique to improve both knowledge of complex physics and reliability of turbomachinery flow predictions. However, these simulations are very expensive for industrial applications, especially when a 360 deg configuration should be considered. The objective of this paper is thus to adapt the well-known phase-lagged conditions to the LES approach by replacing the traditional Fourier series decomposition (FSD) with a compression method that does not make any assumptions on the spectrum of the flow. Several methods are reviewed, and the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is retained. This new method is first validated on a flow around a circular cylinder with rotating downstream blocks. The results show significant improvements with respect to the FSD. It is then applied to unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) simulations of a single-stage compressor in 2.5D and 3D as a first validation step toward single-passage LES of turbomachinery configuration.

Abstract This paper presents the large Eddy simulation (LES) of a propeller representative of the first rotor of a counter rotative open rotor (CROR) configuration based on a multiple frequency phase-lagged approach in conjunction with a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) data storage. This method enables to perform unsteady simulations on multistage turbomachinery configurations including multiple frequency flows with a reduction of the computational domain composed of one single blade passage for each row. This approach is advantageous when no circumferential periodicity occurs in the blade rows of the configuration and a full 360 deg simulation would be required. The data storage method is based on a POD decomposition replacing the traditional Fourier series decomposition (FSD). The inherent limitation of phase-shifted periodicity assumption remains with POD data storage but this compression method alleviates some issues associated with the Fourier transform, especially spectrum issues. The paper is first dedicated to compare the flow field obtained with the LES with phase-lagged condition against full-matching URANS, LES simulations, and experimental data available around the blade and in the wake of the rotor. The study shows a close agreement of the phase-lagged LES simulation with other simulations performed and a thicker wake compared with the experiments with lower turbulent activity. The analysis of the losses generated in the configuration, based on an entropy formulation and a splitting between boundary layer and secondary flow structures, shows the strong contribution of the blade boundary layer in the losses generated.

The solar cycle length for cycles 23 to 29 are forecasted. Two methods are analysed. In the first one, the solar cycle length is separated into its two phases í the rise time and the fall off time í and a multiple regression method is applied to each phase using lagged values as independent variables. In the second method, the multiple regression is fitted directly to the solar cycle length. The minimum and maximum solar activity dates are listed for the cycles predicted with the latter method which proves to be more accurate. Two lagged values appear in the multiple regression adjusted to the solar cycle length. One is associated with the Gleissberg period, also observed in the maximum sunspot number, and the other is coincident with one of the periodicities in the C14 time record, which is associated with solar activity variation

Abstract This article presents the study of the Source Diagnostic Test fan rig of the NASA Glenn (NASA SDT). Numerical simulations are performed for the three different outlet guide vane (OGV) geometries (baseline, low count, and low noise) and three rotational speeds corresponding to approach, cutback, and sideline operating conditions, respectively. Unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) approach is used. The in- and out-duct flow including the nacelle are considered in the numerical simulations, and results are compared against available measurements. Due to the blade count of the fan and OGVs (22 fan blades and either 54 or 26 blades for the OGVs), the simulation can only be reduced to half the full annulus simulation domain using periodic boundary conditions that still represents a significant cost. To alleviate this issue, a URANS with phase-lagged assumption is used. This method allows to perform unsteady simulations on multistage turbomachinery configurations including multiple frequency flows with a reduced computational domain composed of one single-blade passage for each row. The large data storage required by the phase-lagged approach is handled by a compression method based on a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) replacing the traditional Fourier series decomposition (FSD). This compression method improves the signal spectral content especially at high frequency. Based on the numerical simulations, the flow field is described and used to assess the losses generated in the turbofan architecture based on an entropy approach. The results show different flow topologies for the fan depending on the rotational speed with a leading edge shock at high rotational speed. The fan boundary layer contributes strongly to losses with the majority of the losses being generated close to the leading edge.

Molecule- and particle-based simulations provide the tools to test, in microscopic detail, the validity of classical nucleation theory. In this endeavour, determining nucleation mechanisms and rates for phase separation requires an appropriately defined reaction coordinate to describe the transformation of an out-of-equilibrium parent phase, for which myriad options are available to the simulator. In this article, we describe the application of the variational approach to Markov processes (VAMP) to quantify the suitability of reaction coordinates to study crystallisation from supersaturated colloid suspensions. Our analysis indicates that collective variables (CVs) that correlate with the number of particles in the condensed phase, the system potential energy and approximate configurational entropy often feature as the most appropriate order parameters to quantitatively describe the crystallisation process. We apply time-lagged independent component analysis to reduce high-dimensional reaction coordinates constructed from these CVs to build Markov State Models (MSMs), which indicate that two barriers separate a supersaturated fluid phase from crystals in the simulated environment. The MSMs provide consistent estimates for crystal nucleation rates, regardless of the dimensionality of the order parameter space adopted; however, the two-step mechanism is only consistently evident from spectral clustering of the MSMs in higher dimensions. As the method is general and easily transferable, the variational approach we adopt could provide a useful framework to study controls for crystal nucleation.

IntroductionBusinesses commonly text mine Twitter data to identify patterns and extract valuable information. However, this method is rarely applied to the animal welfare sector. Here, we describe Twitter conversations regarding dogs during a global pandemic, assess the evolution of sentiment, and examine the dynamics of sector influence.MethodsBetween March and August 2020, we gathered 61,088 unique tweets from the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland, relating to COVID-19 and dogs. Tweets were assigned to one of four pandemic phases and active accounts were assigned to a sector: Personal (i.e., UK and ROI public), Press (i.e., mass media), State (i.e., Government, Police, and NHS), and Other (i.e., welfare organizations, social enterprises, research organizations, charity, and business).ResultsWord frequency and sentiment analysis between phases and sectors were assessed, and cross correlation functions and lagged regressions were used to evaluate sector influence. Topical foci of conversations included: meat trade, separation anxiety and dog theft. Sentiment score remained stable until the last phase where sentiment decreased (F3, 78, 508 = 44.4, p &lt; 0.001), representing an increased use of negative language. Sentiment differed between the four sectors (F3, 11, 794 = 52.2, p &lt; 0.001), with Personal and Press accounts presenting the greatest use of negative language. Personal accounts were initially partly influenced by State accounts (R = −0.26; p = 0.05), however this altered to Press accounts by the last phase (R = −0.31; p = 0.02).DiscussionOur findings highlight that whilst Personal accounts may affect sector-specific messaging online, perhaps more importantly: language used, and sentiment expressed by Press, State and Other accounts may influence public perception. This draws attention to the importance of sector responsibility regarding accurate and appropriate messaging, as irresponsible/ill-considered comments or campaigns may impact future human-animal interaction.

AbstractSerotonergic psychedelics are recently gaining a lot of attention as a potential treatment of several neuropsychiatric disorders. Broadband desynchronization of EEG activity and disconnection in humans have been repeatedly shown; however, translational data from animals are completely lacking. Therefore, the main aim of our study was to assess the effects of tryptamine and phenethylamine psychedelics (psilocin 4 mg/kg, LSD 0.2 mg/kg, mescaline 100 mg/kg, and DOB 5 mg/kg) on EEG in freely moving rats. A system consisting of 14 cortical EEG electrodes, co-registration of behavioral activity of animals with subsequent analysis only in segments corresponding to behavioral inactivity (resting-state-like EEG) was used in order to reach a high level of translational validity. Analyses of the mean power, topographic brain-mapping, and functional connectivity revealed that all of the psychedelics irrespective of the structural family induced overall and time-dependent global decrease/desynchronization of EEG activity and disconnection within 1–40 Hz. Major changes in activity were localized on the large areas of the frontal and sensorimotor cortex showing some subtle spatial patterns characterizing each substance. A rebound of occipital theta (4–8 Hz) activity was detected at later stages after treatment with mescaline and LSD. Connectivity analyses showed an overall decrease in global connectivity for both the components of cross-spectral and phase-lagged coherence. Since our results show almost identical effects to those known from human EEG/MEG studies, we conclude that our method has robust translational validity.

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has elicited imposition of some form of travel restrictions by almost all countries in the world. Most restrictions currently persist, although some have been gradually eased. It remains unclear if the trade-off from the unprecedented disruption to air travel was well worth for pandemic containment. Method A comparative analysis was conducted on Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea’s COVID-19 response. Data on COVID-19 cases, travel-related and community interventions, socio-economic profile were consolidated. Trends on imported and local cases were analyzed using computations of moving averages, rate of change, particularly in response to distinct waves of travel-related interventions due to the outbreak in China, South Korea, Iran & Italy, and Europe. Results South Korea’s travel restrictions were observed to be consistently more lagged in terms of timeliness and magnitude, with their first wave of travel restrictions on flights departing from China implemented 34 days after the outbreak in Wuhan, compared to 22–26 days taken by Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong. South Korea’s restrictions against all countries came after 91 days, compared to 78–80 days for the other three countries. The rate of change of imported cases fell by 1.08–1.43 across all four countries following the first wave of travel restrictions on departures from China, and by 0.22–0.52 in all countries except South Korea in the fifth wave against all international travellers. Delayed rate of change of local cases resulting from travel restrictions imposed by the four countries with intrinsic importation risk, were not observed. Conclusions Travel restriction was effective in preventing COVID-19 case importation in early outbreak phase, but may still be limited in preventing general local transmission. The impact of travel restrictions, regardless of promptness, in containing epidemics likely also depends on the effectiveness of local surveillance and non-pharmaceutical interventions concurrently implemented.

Virtual reality (VR) is a rapidly developing technology that simulates the real world. However, for some cybersickness-susceptible people, VR still has an unanswered problem—cybersickness—which becomes the main obstacle for users and content makers. Sensory conflict theory is a widely accepted theory for cybersickness. It proposes that conflict between afferent signals and internal models can cause cybersickness. This study analyzes the brain states that determine cybersickness occurrence and related uncomfortable feelings. Furthermore, we use the electroencephalogram (EEG) microstates and functional connectivity approach based on the sensory conflict theory. The microstate approach is a time–space analysis method that allows signals to be divided into several temporarily stable states, simultaneously allowing for the exploration of short- and long-range signals. These temporal dynamics can show the disturbances in mental processes associated with neurological and psychiatric conditions of cybersickness. Furthermore, the functional connectivity approach gives us in-depth insight and relationships between the sources related to cybersickness. We recruited 40 males (24.1 ± 2.3 years), and they watched a VR video on a curved computer monitor for 10 min to experience cybersickness. We recorded the 5-min resting state EEG (baseline condition) and 10-min EEG while watching the VR video (task condition). Then, we performed a microstate analysis, focusing on two temporal parameters: mean duration and global explained variance (GEV). Finally, we obtained the functional connectivity data using eLoreta and lagged phase synchronization (LPS). We discovered five sets of microstates (A–E), including four widely reported canonical microstates (A–D), during baseline and task conditions. The average duration increased in microstates A and B, which is related to the visual and auditory networks. The GEV and duration decreased in microstate C, whereas those in microstate D increased. Microstate C is related to the default mode network (DMN) and D to the attention network. The temporal dynamics of the microstate parameters are from cybersickness disturbing the sensory, DMN, and attention networks. In the functional connectivity part, the LPS between the left and right parietal operculum (OP) significantly decreased (p &lt; 0.05) compared with the baseline condition. Furthermore, the connectivity between the right OP and V5 significantly decreased (p &lt; 0.05). These results also support the disturbance of the sensory network because a conflict between the visual (V5) and vestibular system (OP) causes cybersickness. Changes in the microstates and functional connectivity support the sensory conflict theory. These results may provide additional information in understanding brain dynamics during cybersickness.

AbstractA proper description of ocean-atmosphere interactions is key for a correct understanding of climate evolution. The interplay among the different variables acting over the climate is complex, often leading to correlations across long spatial distances (teleconnections). In some occasions, those teleconnections occur with quite significant temporal shifts that are fundamental for the understanding of the underlying phenomena but which are poorly captured by standard methods. Applying orthogonal decomposition such as Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) to geophysical data sets allows to extract common dominant patterns between two different variables, but generally suffers from (i) the non-physical orthogonal constraint as well as (ii) the consideration of simple correlations, whereby temporally offset signals are not detected. Here we propose an extension, complex rotated MCA, to address both limitations. We transform our signals using the Hilbert transform and perform the orthogonal decomposition in complex space, allowing us to correctly correlate out-of-phase signals. Subsequent Varimax rotation removes the orthogonal constraints, leading to more physically meaningful modes of geophysical variability. As an example of application, we have employed this method on sea surface temperature and continental precipitation; our method successfully captures the temporal and spatial interactions between these two variables, namely for (i) the seasonal cycle, (ii) canonical ENSO, (iii) the global warming trend, (iv) the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, (v) ENSO Modoki and finally (vi) the Atlantic Meridional Mode. The complex rotated modes of MCA provide information on the regional amplitude, and under certain conditions, the regional time lag between changes on ocean temperature and land precipitation.

Abstract Background Little is known about how conspiracy beliefs and health responses are interrelated over time during the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. This longitudinal study tested two contrasting, but not mutually exclusive, hypotheses through cross-lagged modeling. First, based on the consequential nature of conspiracy beliefs, we hypothesize that conspiracy beliefs predict an increase in detrimental health responses over time. Second, as people may rationalize their behavior through conspiracy beliefs, we hypothesize that detrimental health responses predict increased conspiracy beliefs over time. Methods We measured conspiracy beliefs and several health-related responses (i.e. physical distancing, support for lockdown policy, and the perception of the coronavirus as dangerous) at three phases of the pandemic in the Netherlands (N = 4913): During the first lockdown (Wave 1: April 2020), after the first lockdown (Wave 2: June 2020), and during the second lockdown (Wave 3: December 2020). Results For physical distancing and perceived danger, the overall cross-lagged effects supported both hypotheses, although the standardized effects were larger for the effects of conspiracy beliefs on these health responses than vice versa. The within-person change results only supported an effect of conspiracy beliefs on these health responses, depending on the phase of the pandemic. Furthermore, an overall cross-lagged effect of conspiracy beliefs on reduced support for lockdown policy emerged from Wave 2 to 3. Conclusions The results provide stronger support for the hypothesis that conspiracy beliefs predict health responses over time than for the hypothesis that health responses predict conspiracy beliefs over time.