Academic literature on the topic 'Persistent cycle'

ABSTRACT Anaplasma marginale is an intraerythrocytic rickettsial pathogen of cattle in which infection persists for the life of the animal. Persistent A. marginale infection is characterized by repetitive rickettsemic cycles which we hypothesize reflect emergence of A. marginale antigenic variants. In this study, we determined whether variants of major surface protein 2 (MSP-2), a target of protective immunity encoded by a polymorphic multigene family, arise during persistent rickettsemia. By using a quantitative competitive PCR to identify rickettsemic cycles,msp-2 transcripts expressed in vivo were isolated from peak rickettsemia of sequential cycles. Cloning and sequencing ofmsp-2 cDNA revealed that genetic variants of MSP-2 emerge representing a minimum of four genetic variant types in each cycle during persistent infection. Two-color immunofluorescence using variant-specific antibody showed that emergence of MSP-2 variants resulted in expression of a minimum of three antigenic types of MSP-2 within one rickettsemic cycle. Therefore immune control of each cycle would require responses to an antigenically diverse A. marginale population. These findings demonstrate that polymorphic MSP-2 variants emerge during cyclic rickettsemia in persistent A. marginale infection and suggest that emergent variants play an important role in persistence.

The persistent homology provides a mathematical tool to describe "features" in a principled manner. The persistence algorithm proposed by Edelsbrunner et al. can compute not only the persistent homology for a filtered simplicial complex, but also representative generating cycles for persistent homology groups. However, if there are dynamic changes either in the filtration or in the underlying simplicial complex, the representative generating cycle can change wildly. In this paper, we consider the problem of tracking generating cycles with temporal coherence. Specifically, our goal is to track a chosen essential generating cycle so that the changes in it are "local". This requires reordering simplices in the filtration. To handle reordering operations, we build upon the matrix framework proposed by Cohen-Steiner et al. to swap two consecutive simplices, so that we can process a reordering directly. We present an application showing how our algorithm can track an essential cycle in a complex constructed out of a point cloud data.

Prenatal testosterone (T) excess during midgestation leads to estrous cycle defects and polycystic ovaries in sheep. We hypothesized that follicular persistence causes polycystic ovaries and that cyclic progesterone (P) treatment would overcome follicular persistence and restore cyclicity. Twice-weekly blood samples for P measurements were taken from control (C; n = 16) and prenatally T-treated (T60; n = 14; 100 mg T, im, twice weekly from d 30–90 of gestation) Suffolk sheep starting before the onset of puberty and continuing through the second breeding season. A subset of C and T60 sheep were treated cyclically with a modified controlled internal drug-releasing device for 13–14 d every 17 d during the first anestrus (CP, 7; TP, 6). Transrectal ovarian ultrasonography was performed for 8 d in the first and 21 d in the second breeding season. Prenatal T excess reduced the number, but increased the duration of progestogenic cycles, reduced the proportion of ewes with normal cycles, increased the proportion of ewes with subluteal cycles, decreased the proportion of ewes with ovulatory cycles, induced the occurrence of persistent follicles, and reduced the number of corpora lutea in those that cycled. Cyclic P treatment in anestrus, which produced one third the P concentration seen during luteal phase of cycle, did not reduce the number of persistent follicles, but increased the number of progestogenic cycles while reducing their duration. These findings suggested that follicular persistence might contribute to the polycystic ovarian morphology. Cyclic P treatment was able to only partially restore follicular dynamics, but this may be related to the low replacement concentrations of P achieved.

This paper examines whether the persistence of earnings components is affected by the macroeconomic cycle in Korea. To measure the macroeconomic cycle, we use the cycle variation value of Coincident Composite Index (CCI) data obtained from the Korea National Statistics Office. Results from a sample of 21,232 firm-quarter observations over the period 2002-2013 indicate that accruals (cash flows) are more persistent than cash flows (accruals) during expansions (recessions). Also, when going from an expansion to a recession, a decline in accruals persistence is greater than that in cash flows persistence. When total accruals are decomposed into non-discretionary and discretionary portions using the modified Jones model (Dechow et al., 1995), we find that non-discretionary accruals are most persistent than the other components during both expansions and recessions, and a decline in persistence is largest (smallest) for discretionary accruals (cash flows) when going from an expansion to a recession. Most of these results hold when we split the macroeconomic cycle into four phases including transitory periods. Taken together, we provide evidence on the differential effects of macroeconomic cycle on the persistence of individual earnings components in Korea. Our findings suggest that macroeconomic variables are needed to be considered in studies on earnings persistence.

Over the postwar period, many industrialized countries have experienced significant medium-frequency oscillations between periods of robust growth versus relative stagnation. Conventional business cycle filters, however, tend to sweep these oscillations into the trend. In this paper we explore whether they may, instead, reflect a persistent response of economic activity to the high-frequency fluctuations normally associated with the cycle. We define as the medium-term cycle the sum of the high- and medium-frequency variation in the data, and then show that these kinds of fluctuations are substantially more volatile and persistent than are the conventional measures. These fluctuations, further, feature significant procyclical movements in both embodied and disembodied technological change, and research and development (R&D), as well as the efficiency and intensity of resource utilization. We then develop a model of medium-term business cycles. A virtue of the framework is that, in addition to offering a unified approach to explaining the high- and medium-frequency variation in the data, it fully endogenizes the movements in productivity that appear central to the persistence of these fluctuations. For comparison, we also explore how well an exogenous productivity model can explain the facts.

Initiation of intragranular cracks during low cycle fatigue is governed by complex microstructural phenomena. Depending on the loading amplitude, number of cycles, lattice structure and/or chemical composition, different dislocation structures (veins, cells or Persistent Slip Bands) develop and induce heterogeneous localization of strain and stress in the material. For a better comprehension of crack initiation in 316LN stainless steel, low cycle fatigue tests and numerical simulations were performed. Specimens of 316LN steel with polished shallow notch were cycled with constant loading amplitude and Persistant Slip Bands were identified by SEM observations. In parallel, numerical studies were carried out with the model of cristalline plasticity CristalECP. Simulations were performed on 3D polycristalline aggregates of 316LN steel with the finite elements code Abaqus® and Cast3m®. The results show a heterogeneous localization of strain in bands. For a more precise computation of the mechanical fields and to introdruce a grain size effect, Geometrically Necessary Dislocations were introduced in CristalECP. The GNDs are directly related and computed with the lattice curvature.

Children chronically exposed to high levels of ozone (O3), the principal oxidant pollutant in photochemical smog, are more vulnerable to respiratory illness and infections. The specific factors underlying this differential susceptibility are unknown but may be related to air pollutant-induced nasal alterations during postnatal development that impair the normal physiological functions (e.g., filtration and mucociliary clearance) serving to protect the more distal airways from inhaled xenobiotics. In adult animal models, chronic ozone exposure is associated with adaptations leading to a decrease in airway injury. The purpose of our study was to determine whether cyclic ozone exposure induces persistent morphological and biochemical effects on the developing nasal airways of infant monkeys early in life. Infant (180-day-old) rhesus macaques were exposed to 5 consecutive days of O3 [0.5 parts per million (ppm), 8 h/day; “1-cycle”] or filtered air (FA) or 11 biweekly cycles of O3 (FA days 1– 9; 0.5 ppm, 8 h/day on days 10– 14; “11-cycle”). The left nasal passage was processed for light microscopy and morphometric analysis. Mucosal samples from the right nasal passage were processed for GSH, GSSG, ascorbate (AH2), and uric acid (UA) concentration. Eleven-cycle O3 induced persistent rhinitis, squamous metaplasia, and epithelial hyperplasia in the anterior nasal airways of infant monkeys, resulting in a 39% increase in the numeric density of epithelial cells. Eleven-cycle O3 also induced a 65% increase in GSH concentrations at this site. The persistence of epithelial hyperplasia was positively correlated with changes in GSH. These results indicate that early life ozone exposure causes persistent nasal epithelial alterations in infant monkeys and provide a potential mechanism for the increased susceptibility to respiratory illness exhibited by children in polluted environments.

Identifying business cycle stylised facts is essential as these often form the basis for the construction and validation of theoretical business cycle models. Furthermore, understanding the cyclical patterns in economic activity, and their causes, is important to the decisions of both policymakers and market participants. This is of particular concern in developing countries where, in the absence of full risk sharing mechanisms, the economic and social costs of swings in the business cycle are very high. Previous analyses of developing country stylised facts have tended to feature only small samples, for example the seminal paper by Agénor et al. (2000) considers just twelve middle-income economies. Consequently, the results are subjective and dependent on the chosen countries. Motivated by the importance of these business cycle statistics and the lack of consistency amongst existing research, this thesis makes an important contribution to the literature by extending and generalising the developing country stylised facts; examining both classical and growth cycles for a sample of thirty-two developing countries. One significant finding that emerges is the persistence of output fluctuations in developing countries and the strong positive relationship between the magnitude of this persistence and the level of economic development. The observation of procyclical real wages and significant price persistence indicates the suitability of a New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices, to explore this relationship; thus, the vertical production chain model of Huang and Liu (2001) was implemented. This model lends itself to such an analysis, as by altering the number of production stages (N) it is possible to represent economies at different levels of development. There was found to be a strong significant positive relationship between the magnitude of output persistence generated by the model and economic development. However, a very significant finding of this analysis is that the model overestimates output persistence in high inflation countries and underestimates output persistence in low inflation countries. This has important implications not only for this model, but also for any economist attempting to construct a business cycle model capable of replicating the observed patterns of output persistence.

Les méthodes de calcul en fatigue à grande durée de vie sont en cours de développement depuis des décennies et sont utilisées par les ingénieurs pour dimensionner les structures. Généralement, ces méthodes se basent sur la mise en équations de quantités mécaniques calculées à l'échelle macroscopique ou mésoscopique. Les critères de fatigue multiaxiale reposent généralement sur des hypothèses de changement d'échelle dont l'objectif est d'accéder à l'état de contraintes ou de déformations à l'échelle du grain. Dans les approches de type plan critique (Dang Van, Papadopoulos, Morel), l'amorçage d'une fissure de fatigue est considéré comme piloté par une quantité mécanique liée à une orientation matérielle particulière (plan critique). Si ces phénomènes sont bien établis dans le cas des chargements uniaxiaux, la nature des mécanismes liés à l'activation des systèmes de glissement, à la multiplicité du glissement et aux différents sites préférentiels d'amorçage de fissures sous chargements complexes reste peu connue.Afin de mieux comprendre les mécanismes d'endommagement en fatigue multiaxiale, les techniques d'analyse et de caractérisation de l'activité plastique (activation des systèmes de glissements, bandes de glissement persistantes) et d'observation de l'endommagement par fatigue ont été mises en place en se basant principalement sur des observations MEB et analyses EBSD. Ces investigations ont permis de mettre en lumière les effets des chargements non proportionnels sur la multiplicité du glissement sur du cuivre pur OFHC. L'étude statistique des sites préférentiels d'amorçage de fissures montre que les grains à glissement multiple présentent une forte probabilité d'amorçage de fissures, surtout sous les chargements non proportionnels. Nous avons également mis en évidence le rôle des joints de grains et des joints de macle sur le développement de la plasticité à l'échelle de la microstructure. Les résultats expérimentaux sont confrontés à ceux du calcul éléments finis (EF) en plasticité polycristalline sur des microstructures synthétiques 3D semi-périodiques. L'application du critère de Dang Van à l'échelle mésoscopique (le grain) montre une forte variabilité de la contrainte hydrostatique et du cisaillement. Cette variabilité est plus importante pour un modèle de comportement cristallin élastique anisotrope. Le rôle de la plasticité cristalline se révèle secondaire. Ces analyses permettent de remettre en perspective les hypothèses usuelles de changement d'échelle utilisées en fatigue multiaxiale. Enfin, une méthode basée sur la statistique des valeurs extrêmes est proposée pour le dépouillement des calculs EF sur agrégats. Cette analyse a été appliquée sur la contrainte équivalente associée au critère de fatigue de Dang Van pour les calculs d'agrégats polycristallins avec différentes morphologies et orientations des grains. Les effets de la surface libre, du type de chargement et du modèle de comportement mécanique des grains ont été analysés. Les résultats offrent des perspectives intéressantes sur la modélisation de l'amorçage des fissures en fatigue multiaxiale des matériaux et des structures avec une prise en compte de la microstructure.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, 1990.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 197-202).
by Robert Xavier Black.
Ph.D.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2005.
Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xi, 126 p.; also includes graphics. Includes bibliographical references (p. 121-126). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center

Multiple step tests under cyclic strain control have been performed using cylindrical specimens of cast polycrystalline Inconel 738LC superalloy at 23, 700, 500, 800 and 900 °C in laboratory atmosphere to obtain cyclic stress-strain curves. During cyclic straining of specimen were obtained cyclic hardening-softening curves. Their progress changed with temperature and strain amplitude. Evaluated cyclic stress-strain curves are shifted to lower stresses with increasing temperature. Surface relief was observed in fatigued specimens under SEM and metalography under optic microscopy. Slip markings were studied on specimen surface fatigued at 700 °C .Stress-strain response is compared and discussed in relation to the surface observations - persistent slip markings.

AbstractThe multidimensionality and interpersonal dimension of human sexuality make the study of female sexual dysfunction (FSD) a challenge. The aspiration to pursue a patient-centered, holistic approach collides with the need to establish commonly accepted diagnostic criteria for different disturbances in sexual functioning, involving one or multiple phases of the sexual response cycle and pain associated with sexual activity. According to recently proposed classifications, which are continuously evolving, the most relevant FSDs include hypoactive sexual desire disorder, female arousal disorder, persistent genital arousal disorder, and female orgasm disorder. The present chapter aims to provide a clinical perspective on these disorders by reviewing the most recent evidence on the pathophysiology, definitions, prevalence, leading etiologies, diagnostic tools, and key therapeutic approaches. Sexual pain-related conditions will be reviewed in another chapter.It is evident that a gender bias still exists, with prominent biological etiologies of FSDs being neglected and understudied at the expense of psychodynamic and relational determinants. Moreover, classifications should serve to advocate the advancement of our knowledge of female sexual functioning. This process goes through the practical translation of the updated nosology in a language that is intelligible to primary healthcare providers all over the world, and ultimately, to women.

This paper describes a new approach for ascertaining the stability of autonomous stochastic delay equations in their parameter space by examining their time series using topological data analysis. We use a nonlinear model that describes the tool oscillations due to self-excited vibrations in turning. The time series is generated using Euler-Maruyama method and then is turned into a point cloud in a high dimensional Euclidean space using the delay embedding. The point cloud can then be analyzed using persistent homology. Specifically, in the deterministic case, the system has a stable fixed point while the loss of stability is associated with Hopf bifurcation whereby a limit cycle branches from the fixed point. Since periodicity in the signal translates into circularity in the point cloud, the persistence diagram associated to the periodic time series will have a high persistence point. This can be used to determine a threshold criteria that can automatically classify the system behavior based on its time series. The results of this study show that the described approach can be used for analyzing datasets of delay dynamical systems generated both from numerical simulation and experimental data.

In this paper application of recursive least squares with multiple forgetting factors is explained for online estimation of Heavy Duty Vehicle mass and road grade. The test data is obtained from highway experiments with a Freightliner truck. The experimental setup is explained in detail. This data is used to validate the longitudinal dynamics model of the truck. Then two distinct driving cycles are used to investigate the performance of the mass and grade estimation scheme. In he first scheme no gear shift occurs and the only concern is persistence of excitations. It is shown that if the excitations are persistent, mass and time-varying grade are estimated with good accuracy. In the second cycle gearshifts occur and the challenge is the unmodelled dynamics during gearshifts which cause large overshoots in the estimates. A method is proposed to circumvent this problem and good estimation results are shown with this provision.

Abstract Substantial ground reaction forces exceeding body weight occur at heel strike. These impulsive loadings are believed to be important etiological factors in joint degenerative processes (Radin et al., 1991). Modelling of the gait cycle and the associated joint mechanics therefore requires an accurate approach to the heel strike impact problem.

We are interested in the persistent surveillance of an area of interest comprised of stations/ data nodes that need to be visited in a cyclic manner. The data collection task is undertaken by a UAV which autonomously executes the mission. In addition to geographically distributed stations, the scenario also includes a central depot, where data collected from the different nodes must be delivered. In this context, the performance criteria, in addition to a desired minimal cycle time, also entails minimizing the delay in delivering the data collected from each node to the depot. Each node has a priority/ weight associated with it that characterizes the relative importance between timely delivery of data from the nodes. We pose the problem as an average/ cycle reward maximization problem; where the UAV gains a reward that is a decreasing function of weighted delay in data delivery from the nodes. Since we aim to maximize the average reward, the solution also favors shorter overall cycle time. In a cycle, each station is visited exactly once; however, we allow the UAV to visit the depot more than once in a cycle. Evidently, this allows for quicker delivery of data from a higher priority node. We apply results from average reward maximization stochastic dynamic programming to our deterministic case and solve the problem using Linear Programming. We also discuss the special case of no penalty on delivery delay, whence the problem collapses to the well known metric Traveling Salesman Problem.

This paper critically evaluates debates over the causes of U.S. inflation. We first show that claims that the Biden stimulus was the major cause of inflation are mistaken: the key data series – stimulus spending and inflation – move dramatically out of phase. While the first ebbs quickly, the second persistently surges. We then look at alternative explanations of the price rises. We assess four supply side factors: imports, energy prices, rises in corporate profit margins, and COVID. We argue that discussions of COVID’s impact have thus far only tangentially acknowledged the pandemic’s far-reaching effects on labor markets. We conclude that while all four factors played roles in bringing on and sustaining inflation, they cannot explain all of it. There really is an aggregate demand problem. But the surprise surge in demand did not arise from government spending. It came from the unprecedented gains in household wealth, particularly for the richest 10% of households, which we show powered the recovery of aggregate US consumption expenditure especially from July 2021. The final cause of the inflationary surge in the U.S., therefore, was in large measure the unequal (wealth) effects of ultra-loose monetary policy during 2020-2021. This conclusion is important because inflationary pressures are unlikely to subside soon. Going forward, COVID, war, climate change, and the drift to a belligerently multipolar world system are all likely to strain global supply chains. Our conclusion outlines how policy has to change to deal with the reality of steady, but irregular supply shocks. This type of inflation responds only at enormous cost to monetary policies, because it arises mostly from supply-side difficulties that require targeted solutions. But when supply plummets or becomes more variable, fiscal policy also has to adapt: existing explorations of ways to steady demand over the business cycle have to embrace much bolder macroeconomic measures to control over-spending when supply is temporarily constrained.

Original Objectives 1. To determine the Brucella genes that lead to chronic macrophage infection. 2. To identify Brucella genes that contribute to infection. 3. To confirm the importance of Brucella genes in macrophages and placental cells by mutational analysis. Background Brucella spp. is a Gram-negative facultative intracellular bacterium that infects ruminants causing abortion or birth of severely debilitated animals. Brucellosis continues in Israel, caused by B. melitensis despite an intensive eradication campaign. Problems with the Rev1 vaccine emphasize the need for a greater understanding of Brucella pathogenesis that could improve vaccine designs. Virulent Brucella has developed a successful strategy for survival in its host and transmission to other hosts. To invade the host, virulent Brucella establishes an intracellular niche within macrophages avoiding macrophage killing, ensuring its long-term survival. Then, to exit the host, Brucella uses placenta where it replicates to high numbers resulting in abortion. Also, Brucella traffics to the mammary gland where it is secreted in milk. Missing from our understanding of brucellosis is the surprisingly lillie basic information detailing the mechanisms that permit bacterial persistence in infected macrophages (chronic infection) and dissemination to other animals from infected placental cells and milk (acute infection). Microarray analysis is a powerful approach to determine global gene expression in bacteria. The close genomic similarities of Brucella species and our recent comparative genomic studies of Brucella species using our B. melitensis microarray, suqqests that the data obtained from studying B. melitensis 16M would enable understanding the pathogenicity of other Brucella organisms, particularly the diverse B. melitensis variants that confound Brucella eradication in Israel. Conclusions Results from our BARD studies have identified previously unknown mechanisms of Brucella melitensis pathogenesis- i.e., response to blue light, quorum sensing, second messenger signaling by cyclic di-GMP, the importance of genomic island 2 for lipopolysaccharide in the outer bacterial membrane, and the role of a TIR domain containing protein that mimics a host intracellular signaling molecule. Each one of these pathogenic mechanisms offers major steps in our understanding of Brucella pathogenesis. Strikingly, our molecular results have correlated well to the pathognomonic profile of the disease. We have shown that infected cattle do not elicit antibodies to the organisms at the onset of infection, in correlation to the stealth pathogenesis shown by a molecular approach. Moreover, our field studies have shown that Brucella exploit this time frame to transmit in nature by synchronizing their life cycle to the gestation cycle of their host succumbing to abortion in the last trimester of pregnancy that spreads massive numbers of organisms in the environment. Knowing the bacterial mechanisms that contribute to the virulence of Brucella in its host has initiated the agricultural opportunities for developing new vaccines and diagnostic assays as well as improving control and eradication campaigns based on herd management and linking diagnosis to the pregnancy status of the animals. Scientific and Agricultural Implications Our BARD funded studies have revealed important Brucella virulence mechanisms of pathogenesis. Our publication in Science has identified a highly novel concept where Brucella utilizes blue light to increase its virulence similar to some plant bacterial pathogens. Further, our studies have revealed bacterial second messengers that regulate virulence, quorum sensing mechanisms permitting bacteria to evaluate their environment, and a genomic island that controls synthesis of its lipopolysaccharide surface. Discussions are ongoing with a vaccine company for application of this genomic island knowledge in a Brucella vaccine by the U.S. lab. Also, our new technology of bioengineering bioluminescent Brucella has resulted in a spin-off application for diagnosis of Brucella infected animals by the Israeli lab by prioritizing bacterial diagnosis over serological diagnosis.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic summary Annual inflation continued to rise in the first quarter (8.5%) and again outpaced both market expectations and the technical staff’s projections. Inflation in major consumer price index (CPI) baskets has accelerated year-to-date, rising in March at an annual rate above 3%. Food prices (25.4%) continued to contribute most to rising inflation, mainly affected by a deterioration in external supply and rising costs of agricultural inputs. Increases in transportation prices and in some utility rates (energy and gas) can explain the acceleration in regulated items prices (8.3%). For its part, the increase in inflation excluding food and regulated items (4.5%) would be the result of shocks in supply and external costs that have been more persistent than expected, the effects of indexation, accumulated inflationary pressures from the exchange rate, and a faster-than-anticipated tightening of excess productive capacity. Within the basket excluding food and regulated items, external inflationary pressures have meaningfully impacted on goods prices (6.4%), which have been accelerating since the last quarter of 2021. Annual growth in services prices (3.8%) above the target rate is due primarily to food away from home (14.1%), which was affected by significant increases in food and utilities prices and by a rise in the legal monthly minimum wage. Housing rentals and other services prices also increased, though at rates below 3%. Forecast and expected inflation have increased and remain above the target rate, partly due to external pressures (prices and costs) that have been more persistent than projected in the January report (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accentuated inflationary pressures, particularly on international prices for certain agricultural goods and inputs, energy, and oil. The current inflation projection assumes international food prices will increase through the middle of this year, then remain high and relatively stable for the remainder of 2022. Recovery in the perishable food supply is forecast to be less dynamic than previously anticipated due to high agricultural input prices. Oil prices should begin to recede starting in the second half of the year, but from higher levels than those presented in the previous report. Given the above, higher forecast inflation could accentuate indexation effects and increase inflation expectations. The reversion of a rebate on value-added tax (VAT) applied to cleaning and hygiene products, alongside the end of Colombia’s COVID-19 health emergency, could increase the prices of those goods. The elimination of excess productive capacity on the forecast horizon, with an output gap close to zero and somewhat higher than projected in January, is another factor to consider. As a consequence, annual inflation is expected to remain at high levels through June. Inflation should then decline, though at a slower pace than projected in the previous report. The adjustment process of the monetary policy rate wouldcontribute to pushing inflation and its expectations toward the target on the forecast horizon. Year-end inflation for 2022 is expected to be around 7.1%, declining to 4.8% in 2023. Economic activity again outperformed expectations. The technical staff’s growth forecast for 2022 has been revised upward from 4.3% to 5% (Graph 1.3). Output increased more than expected in annual terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 (10.7%), driven by domestic demand that came primarily because of private consumption above pre-pandemic levels. Investment also registered a significant recovery without returning to 2019 levels and with mixed performance by component. The trade deficit increased, with significant growth in imports similar to that for exports. The economic tracking indicator (ISE) for January and February suggested that firstquarter output would be higher than previously expected and that the positive demand shock observed at the end of 2021 could be fading slower than anticipated. Imports in consumer goods, retail sales figures, real restaurant and hotel income, and credit card purchases suggest that household spending continues to be dynamic, with levels similar to those registered at the end of 2021. Project launch and housing starts figures and capital goods import data suggest that investment also continues to recover but would remain below pre-pandemic levels. Consumption growth is expected to decelerate over the year from high levels reached over the last two quarters. This would come amid tighter domestic and external financial conditions, the exhaustion of suppressed demand, and a deterioration of available household income due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue to recover, while the trade deficit should tighten alongside high oil and other export commodity prices. Given all of the above, first-quarter economic growth is now expected to be 7.2% (previously 5.2%) and 5.0% for 2022 as a whole (previously 4.3%). Output growth would continue to moderate in 2023 (2.9%, previously 3.1%), converging similar to long-term rates. The technical staff’s revised projections suggest that the output gap would remain at levels close to zero on the forecast horizon but be tighter than forecast in January (Graph 1.4). These estimates continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions, external financial conditions, Colombia’s electoral cycle, and the COVID-19 pandemic. External demand is now projected to grow at a slower pace than previously expected amid increased global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, and tighter international financial conditions than forecast in January. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its inflationary effects on prices for oil and certain agricultural goods and inputs accentuated existing global inflationary pressures originating in supply restrictions and increased international costs. A decline in the supply of Russian oil, low inventory levels, and continued production limits on behalf of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) can explain increased projected oil prices for 2022 (USD 100.8/barrel, previously USD 75.3) and 2023 (USD 86.8/barrel, previously USD 71.2). The forecast trajectory for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate has increased for this and next year to reflect higher real and expected inflation and positive performance in the labormarket and economic activity. The normalization of monetary policy in various developed and emerging market economies, more persistent supply and cost shocks, and outbreaks of COVID-19 in some Asian countries contributed to a reduction in the average growth outlook for Colombia’s trade partners for 2022 (2.8%, previously 3.3%) and 2023 (2.4%, previously 2.6%). In this context, the projected path for Colombia’s risk premium increased, partly due to increased geopolitical global tensions, less expansionary monetary policy in the United States, an increase in perceived risk for emerging markets, and domestic factors such as accumulated macroeconomic imbalances and political uncertainty. Given all the above, external financial conditions are tighter than projected in January report. External forecasts and their impact on Colombia’s macroeconomic scenario continue to be affected by considerable uncertainty, given the unpredictability of both the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the pandemic. The current macroeconomic scenario, characterized by high real inflation levels, forecast and expected inflation above 3%, and an output gap close to zero, suggests an increased risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. This scenario offers very limited space for expansionary monetary policy. Domestic demand has been more dynamic than projected in the January report and excess productive capacity would have tightened more quickly than anticipated. Headline and core inflation rose above expectations, reflecting more persistent and important external shocks on supply and costs. The Russian invasion of Ukraine accentuated supply restrictions and pressures on international costs. This partly explains the increase in the inflation forecast trajectory to levels above the target in the next two years. Inflation expectations increased again and are above 3%. All of this increased the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored and could generate indexation effects that move inflation still further from the target rate. This macroeconomic context also implies reduced space for expansionary monetary policy. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) continues to adjust its monetary policy. In its meetings both in March and April of 2022, it decided by majority to increase the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 6.0% (Graph 1.5).