Academic literature on the topic 'Performance confidence'

There is ample evidence that emotions affect performance. Positive emotions can improve performance, while negative ones can diminish it. For example, the fears induced by the possibility of failure or of negative evaluations have physiological consequences (shaking, loss of concentration) that may impair performance in sports, on stage, or at school. There is also ample evidence that individuals have distorted recollection of past events and distorted attributions of the causes of success or failure. Recollection of good events or successes is typically easier than recollection of bad ones or failures. Successes tend to be attributed to intrinsic aptitudes or effort, while failures are attributed to bad luck. In addition, these attributions are often reversed when judging the performance of others. The objective of this paper is to incorporate the phenomenon that emotions affect performance into an otherwise standard decision theoretic model and show that in a world where performance depends on emotions, biases in information processing enhance welfare.

This article indicates the level of self-confidence during the oral performance of the students such as in speaking activities as well as the self-efficacy in their oral task achievements. Self-confidence is believed to be a psychological factor which has a considerable influence on students’ speaking skills. The purpose of this article is identifying the student’s self-confidence conducting the students’ survey on their self-confidence, in acquiring the English language with the help of questionnaire and students’ responds are analyzed by the author.

The thesis aims to address a perceived gap in the training and development of music performers, namely the lack of a practical strategies framework for developing performance confidence, especially self-efficacy (situational selfconfidence) in music performance. To this end, a Training Program with Training Manual was designed to assist musicians in the management of practice and performance, using a framework of six integrative mental and physical strategies taken from Sport Performance and applied to Music Performance. Five musicians trialed the Training Program for five weeks. Five individual case studies were constructed to explore and interpret the musicians' practice and performance experiences before and after using the Training Program / Manual. Analyses of in-depth interviews and a follow-up questionnaire revealed that the Training Program had produced positive changes in mental and physical behaviour, along with increased concentration ability and coping skills in stressful situations, resulting in a sense of control in performance. A cross-case analysis revealed that the shared issues of significance for the musicians were Concentration, Stress and Lifestyle Practices, and Sense of Control in practice and performance. This qualitative study demonstrates that a training program addressing the lifestyle context of music performance is beneficial for practice and the lead-up to performance. Confidence in playing ability develops, when practice and performance are perceived to be effectively self-managed and practice becomes a positive experience. The findings of this study suggest the need for a holistic approach to music performance, based on awareness of the mind-body connections involved in performance.

The purpose of this research was to manipulate the component of confidence found in Keller's ARCS model to enhance the confidence and performance of undergraduate students enrolled in an online course at a Texas university using SAM 2003 software delivery. This study also tested whether the aforementioned confidence tactics had any unintentional effect on the remaining attention, relevance, and satisfaction subscales of the ARCS model as well as on learners' overall motivation for the class and the instructional materials. This study was conducted over a 5.5-week period with an initial sample of 81 total students. Two quantitative surveys were used to measure confidence and motivation: (a) the Course Interest Survey (CIS), and (b) the Instructional Materials Motivation Survey (IMMS). The results indicated that the treatment group showed statistically greater gains than the control group in terms of learner confidence on the CIS but not the IMMS. In terms of performance, the treatment group outperformed the control group on all of the individual posttest measures and on the overall aggregate mean performance score. The results showed no statistically significant difference on the attention subsection of the ARCS model. However, statistically significant differences were noted for the relevance and satisfaction subscales of the model. There was also a statistically significant difference in overall learner motivation as measured on both surveys. This research study suggests the feasibility of improving overall learner motivation and performance through external conditions such as systematically applied confidence tactics. The research further supports claims about the effectiveness of the ARCS model as a viable tool for enhancing online learner motivation and performance. What was unclear in this study was whether individual subsections of the ARCS model, such as confidence, can be independently manipulated.

Ordinal coefficient alpha is a newly derived non-parametric reliability estimate. As with any point estimate, ordinal coefficient alpha is merely an estimate of a population parameter and tends to vary from sample to sample. Researchers report the confidence interval to provide readers with the amount of precision obtained. Several methods with differing computational approaches exist for confidence interval estimation for alpha, including the Fisher, Feldt, Bonner, and Hakstian and Whalen (HW) techniques. Overall, coverage rates for the various methods were unacceptably low with the Fisher method as the highest performer at 62%. Because of the poor performance across all four confidence interval methods, a need exists to develop a method which works well for ordinal coefficient alpha.

This thesis provided a detailed examination of the role of sport confidence in World Class sport performance. More specifically, the sources and types of sport confidence utilised by World Class sport performers were identified, and mechanisms underlying confidence effects in this elite subgroup were explored. These findings led to the development of an applied measure of sport confidence which was validated in a practical setting, and used to provide the foundation for a cognitive-behavioural intervention designed to enhance sport confidence. Studies one and two adopted a qualitative approach utilising semi-structured interviews. Study three adopted a more idiographic approach where confidence profiling was used as the primary means of data collection, and reflective narratives were undertaken to report the findings. Finally, study four utilised a case-study approach. The purpose of study one was to identify the sources and types of sport confidence salient to athletes competing on the World Class stage. Results indicated that the most prevalent sources of confidence utilised by these athletes were preparation, performance accomplishments, and coaching. However, gender variations were evident within these confidence sources. Several types of confidence were also identified, providing evidence for the multidimensional nature of sport confidence. Again, gender variations were evident within the types of sport confidence identified. The purpose of study two was to examine the role of sport confidence in World Class sport performance. In accordance with previous research, high sport confidence was found to be synonymous with positive affect, effective competition behaviours and the efficient use of cognitive resources, resulting in successful competition performance. Furthermore, the results uncovered gender differences in both competitive orientation and the factors responsible for debilitating sport confidence. Considered in the context of previous research, the results of studies one and two highlighted the need for an applied measure to assess and monitor athletes sport confidence and factors related to their sport confidence, regardless of their age, gender, sport level or sport type. Consequently, study three described the reflections of three sport psychology consultants who successfully adapted performance profiling to sport confidence specifically. Further evidence was also provided to support the multidimensional nature of sport confidence and the recommendation that types of sport confidence might be viewed as evidence based beliefs grounded in an athlete's sources of sport confidence. The final study adopted a case study approach in which confidence profiling was used as the foundation for the successful delivery of a sport psychology service, adapted from the eight-step cognitive-behavioural consultation model (Murphy & Murphy, 1992). In this study confidence profiling was used to accurately assess the sport confidence of an elite female swimmer, provide the foundation for an athlete-centred intervention designed to enhance the athlete's sport confidence, and monitor any changes in the athlete's confidence as a result of the intervention. Evaluation of the intervention showed that with one exception, the athlete had increased her confidence levels across all types of her sport confidence. In summary, the findings of this thesis have both theoretical and practical implications. From a theoretical perspective, the findings emphasise the multidimensional nature of sport confidence, and the importance of utilising a sport-specific framework to aid future research. From a practical perspective, this thesis highlights the importance of adopting an individualised approach to the assessment of athletes' sport confidence, and developing athlete driven interventions to meet their specific confidence needs.

L’Optical Flow (OF) és l’input d’una gran varietat de Sistemes de Suport a Decisions (DSS) com ara assistència a la conducció, guia UAV o diagnosis mèdic. En aquestes situacions, l’absència de ground truth ens obliga a avaluar la qualitat de l’OF calculat mitjançant quantitats calculades a partir de les seqüències o bé a partir del mateix OF. Aquestes quantitats es coneixen generalment com a Mesures de Confiança (CM). Encara que tinguem una mesura de confiança, necessitem alguna eina per tal d’avaluar la seva capacitat per descartar píxels de la imatge que tenen tendència a tindre error. Els mètodes actuals només aporten una avaluació descriptiva del rendiment de les CM, el problema és que aquests mètodes no són capaços de comparar equitativament les diferents CM i OF. Així doncs, necessitem definir una metodologia que avalu¨ı el rendiment de les tècniques d’OF. Aquesta tesi aporta la definició d’una metodologia que ens permet decidir quines parelles ”optical flow - mesura de confiança” (OF-CM) estan millor preparades per a definir una cota de l’error de l’OF donat un nivell de confiança per a un DSS. Per tal de definir aquesta metodologia, la tesis engloba els següents punts: • Marcadors qualificatius. Es presenten 3 gràfiques descriptives que avaluen de forma visual les capacitats de CM d’acotar l’error de l’OF. A més a més de les gràfiques descriptives, donada una gràfica representant la parella OF-CM, donem una qualificació automàtica que categoritza la gràfica donat el tipus de perfil. • Metodologia estadística. Es proporciona una metodologia comparativa que permet determinar quina és la millor parella OF-CM per a acotar l’error de l’OF, aquesta metodologia consta de dues parts. Primer s’avalua el valor predictiu de la CM mitjançant la gràfica descriptiva. Després, per a una mostra de gràfiques descriptives calculades sobre unes seqüències de training, s’obté una corba genèrica que es podrà fer servir per a seqüències que no tenen ground truth. En el segon pas, s’avalua la corba genèrica obtinguda i les seves capacitats per a reflectir el valor predictiu de la mesura de confiança mitjançant ANOVA’s. La metodologia presentada mostra el potencial en aplicació clínica per a DSS. En concret, s’ha analitzat l’impacte de diferents artefactes en la imatge com ara soroll o deteriorament en el resultat final d’OF per a imatges del cor. També s’ha aplicat per a millorar la navegació dintre l’arbre bronquial en una broncoscòpia.
Optical Flow (OF) is the input of a wide range of decision support systems such as car driver assistance, UAV guiding or medical diagnose. In these real situations, the absence of ground truth forces to assess OF quality using quantities computed from either sequences or the computed optical flow itself. These quantities are generally known as Confidence Measures, CM. Even if we have a proper confidence measure we still need a way to evaluate its ability to discard pixels with an OF prone to have a large error. Current approaches only provide a descriptive evaluation of the CM performance but such approaches are not capable to fairly compare different confidence measures and optical flow algorithms. Thus, it is of prime importance to define a framework and a general road map for the evaluation of optical flow performance. This thesis provides a framework able to decide which pairs ”optical flow - con- fidence measure” (OF-CM) are best suited for optical flow error bounding given a confidence level determined by a decision support system. To design this framework we cover the following points: • Descriptive scores. As a first step, we summarize and analyze the sources of inaccuracies in the output of optical flow algorithms. Second, we present several descriptive plots that visually assess CM capabilities for OF error bounding. In addition to the descriptive plots, given a plot representing OF-CMcapabilities to bound the error, we provide a numeric score that categorizes the plot according to its decreasing profile, that is, a score assessing CM performance. • Statistical framework. We provide a comparison framework that assesses the best suited OF-CM pair for error bounding that uses a two stage cascade process. First of all we assess the predictive value of the confidence measures by means of a descriptive plot. Then, for a sample of descriptive plots computed over training frames, we obtain a generic curve that will be used for sequences with no ground truth. As a second step, we evaluate the obtained general curve and its capabilities to really reflect the predictive value of a confidence measure using the variability across train frames by means of ANOVA. The presented framework has shown its potential in the application on clinical decision support systems. In particular, we have analyzed the impact of the different image artifacts such as noise and decay to the output of optical flow in a cardiac diagnose system and we have improved the navigation inside the bronchial tree on bronchoscopy.

Despite the ability for past studies to link various psychological factors to optimal athletic performances, the roles of specific factors have yet to be fully discerned. Using a phenomenological-constructionist approach, the present study aims to gather a sharpened understanding of the roles that confidence and focus have on elite sport performances. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 Canadian and Norwegian high-level athletes originating from various sporting backgrounds. The athletes were interrogated about their general perspectives towards confidence and focus, inquired about the nature of their focus with regards to different game situations and asked to revisit their best and worst performances with the emphasis put on their confidence level and focus. The analysis of the interviews was inductive and followed Giorgi’s (1985) phenomenological methodology. Results suggested that an optimal focus is very often, if not always, present in best performances and largely absent during worst performances, thus suggesting that focus indeed plays a direct role on sporting exploits. Furthermore, confidence appears to serve as a powerful facilitator for the occurrence of optimal focus, leading to suggest that its relationship with performance might be more indirect. The increased understanding of the roles that both confidence and focus have on athletic performance that is enlightened by this study can serve as basis for practitioners in the development of performance enhancement programs in addition to stimulate future research on the possible relationship between confidence, focus and performance.

In the UK, the ability of the police to function effectively depends on the authority that they can command, rather than the force that they can deploy. It is therefore essential that police retain their image as the legitimate defenders of the British public. This can only be achieved through maintaining levels of public confidence in policing. This thesis presents the analysis of a large-scale survey, designed to assess the perceptions of York residents towards crime, their local area, and the police. Structural Equation Modelling is used to assess the drivers of public confidence in York, and create a framework to understand the multiple interactions between the factors tested in the study, and the main dependent variable of public confidence. This framework is tested to evaluate whether there are differences within the city that affect how the public confidence framework functions. Previous studies on the determinants of public confidence have mainly focused on locations outside the UK, used aggregated national data, or studied public confidence in large, metropolitan urban areas. No research has been carried out examining public confidence in an urban area with similar characteristics to York. We contribute to knowledge by revealing the drivers of public confidence in the smaller urban area of York. We develop a public confidence framework that provides a holistic understanding of the nature of public confidence in York, showing that an understanding of the relationships between all factors in a public confidence model is essential if the true nature of this concept is to be understood. We demonstrate that even in a homogenous environment, differences in the overall framework of public confidence exist, depending on the perceptions people hold about their local area. Several potential strategies are presented to assist the North Yorkshire Police in improving levels of public confidence within York.

World-wide activities focus on the remediation of radioactively contaminated sites. One common aim is to deliver a more profound chemical base for risk assessment, namely all those physico-chemical phenomena governing the contamination plume development in time and space. Coupled transport codes able to tackle this challenge have to simplify the resulting very complex reaction pattern. To do so in an adequate way requires extending the knowledge about retardation and mobilisation phenomena and the underlying basic processes and interactions (e.g. physisorption, chemisorption, surface precipitation). Interactions at the solid-liquid interface can be described by complementary approaches, the empirical Kd concept and the mechanistic Surface Complexation Models (SCM). Kd’s are used by most reactive transport and risk assessment codes due to the straightforward numerics involved. In addition, the Kd concept is often the only feasible option for complex solid phases. However, the Kd concept is a rather simplistic approach. Many very different basic physico-chemical phenomena are subsumed in just one conditional parameter. Therefore, extrapolating Kd values may yield very large uncertainties. SCM account adsorption of ions on surface sites as complexation reaction comparable to complexation in solution. The electrical charge at the surface is determined by the chemical reactions of the mineral functional groups, including acid-base reactions and formation of ion pairs and coordinative complexes. The required parameters are site-independent and applicable despite large variations in geochemical conditions. This presents a high potential to increase confidence in safety analysis and risk assessment studies (performance assessment). The mechanistic description of sorption processes with SCM allows a thermodynamically consistent calculation of the species distribution between liquid and solid phase combined with more reliable inter- and extrapolations. However, this requires that all mineral constituents of the solid phase are characterized. Another issue is the large number of required parameters combined with time-consuming iterations. Addressing both approaches, we present two sorption databases, developed mainly by or under participation of the Forschungszentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (FZD). Both databases are implemented as relational databases, assist identification of critical data gaps and the evaluation of existing parameter sets, provide web based data search and analyses and permit the comparison of SCM predictions with Kd values. RES3T (Rossendorf Expert System for Surface and Sorption Thermodynamics) is a digitized thermodynamic sorption database (see www.fzd.de/db/RES3T.login) and free of charge. It is mineral-specific and can therefore also be used for additive models of more complex solid phases. ISDA (Integrated Sorption Database System) connects SCM with the Kd concept but focuses on conventional Kd. The integrated datasets are accessible through a unified user interface. An application case, Kd values in Performance Assessment, is given.

The Energy Savings Insurance Program seeks to promote investment in energy efficiency and distributed generation in Latin America, primarily through small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It focuses on developing an innovative scheme of guaranteed energy performance that mitigates project risk and generates investor confidence (ESI Model). The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) facilitates the development of the ESI Program in alliance with the National Development Banks (NDBs). The ESI Model includes a contract for the supply, installation, and maintenance of equipment for generating a stipulated amount of energy or energy savings over a specific time period; validation by an independent body; insurance coverage that backs the savings or the guaranteed energy generation; and project financing. This paper describes the main attributes of the ESI Model (the contract, the insurance, validation and financing), evaluates market potential and the most attractive technologies, and identifies the priority sectors for implementing projects in Chile. The most promising economic sectors were found to be the hospitality industry, food processing industry, grape growing/wine production, and the fishing industry, and the technologies of electric motors, boilers, air conditioning systems and photovoltaic solar generation. In each of these sectors, estimates were made of financing requirements as well as CO2 emission reductions that could be achieved.

The Pursuing Regional Opportunities for Mentoring, Innovation, and Success for English Learners (PROMISE) Initiative Research Monograph is comprised of four sub-studies that took place between 2006 and 2009 to examine the effectiveness of the PROMISE Initiative across six implementing counties. Beginning in 2002, the superintendents of the six Southern California County Offices of Education collaborated to examine the pattern of the alarmingly low academic performance of English learners (EL) across Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, San Diego, Riverside, and Ventura. Together, these six counties serve over one million EL students, more than 66% of the total EL population in the state of California, and close to 20% of the EL population in the nation. Data were compiled for the six counties, research on effective programs for ELs was shared, and a common vision for the success of ELs began to emerge. Out of this effort, the PROMISE Initiative was created to uphold a critical vision that ensured that ELs achieved and sustained high levels of proficiency, high levels of academic achievement, sociocultural and multicultural competency, preparation for successful transition to higher education, successful preparation as a 21st century global citizen, and high levels of motivation, confidence, and self-assurance. This report is organized into six chapters: an introductory chapter, four chapters of related studies, and a summary chapter. The four studies were framed around four areas of inquiry: 1) What is the PROMISE model? 2) What does classroom implementation of the PROMISE model look like? 3) What leadership skills do principals at PROMISE schools need to lead transformative education for ELs? 4) What impact did PROMISE have on student learning and participation? Key findings indicate that the PROMISE Initiative: • resulted in positive change for ELs at all levels including achievement gains and narrowing of the gap between ELs and non-ELs • increased use of research-based classroom practices • refined and strengthened plans for ELs at the district-level, and • demonstrated potential to enable infrastructure, partnerships, and communities of practice within and across the six school districts involved. The final chapter of the report provides implications for school reform for improving EL outcomes including bolstering EL expertise in school reform efforts, implementing sustained and in-depth professional development, monitoring and supporting long-term reform efforts, and establishing partnerships and networks to develop, research and disseminate efforts.

The Pursuing Regional Opportunities for Mentoring, Innovation, and Success for English Learners (PROMISE) Initiative Research Monograph is comprised of four sub-studies that took place between 2006 and 2009 to examine the effectiveness of the PROMISE Initiative across six implementing counties. Beginning in 2002, the superintendents of the six Southern California County Offices of Education collaborated to examine the pattern of the alarmingly low academic performance of English learners (EL) across Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, San Diego, Riverside, and Ventura. Together, these six counties serve over one million EL students, more than 66% of the total EL population in the state of California, and close to 20% of the EL population in the nation. Data were compiled for the six counties, research on effective programs for ELs was shared, and a common vision for the success of ELs began to emerge. Out of this effort, the PROMISE Initiative was created to uphold a critical vision that ensured that ELs achieved and sustained high levels of proficiency, high levels of academic achievement, sociocultural and multicultural competency, preparation for successful transition to higher education, successful preparation as a 21st century global citizen, and high levels of motivation, confidence, and self-assurance. This report is organized into six chapters: an introductory chapter, four chapters of related studies, and a summary chapter. The four studies were framed around four areas of inquiry: 1) What is the PROMISE model? 2) What does classroom implementation of the PROMISE model look like? 3) What leadership skills do principals at PROMISE schools need to lead transformative education for ELs? 4) What impact did PROMISE have on student learning and participation? Key findings indicate that the PROMISE Initiative: • resulted in positive change for ELs at all levels including achievement gains and narrowing of the gap between ELs and non-ELs • increased use of research-based classroom practices • refined and strengthened plans for ELs at the district-level, and • demonstrated potential to enable infrastructure, partnerships, and communities of practice within and across the six school districts involved. The final chapter of the report provides implications for school reform for improving EL outcomes including bolstering EL expertise in school reform efforts, implementing sustained and in-depth professional development, monitoring and supporting long-term reform efforts, and establishing partnerships and networks to develop, research and disseminate efforts.

This report details both the process undertaken to develop an evaluation instrument that can collect feedback from children in the Love of Learning program and feedback the children have provided. A total of 178 children who are beneficiaries of the program completed the survey, and 91% confirmed the program was positively supporting them. They provided their feedback using a 20-question survey which measured four protective factors that previous research suggests supports children to engage with and enjoy learning, helping them to thrive in school and life. The protective factors are known to foster social, emotional, and academic development and success. There is a strong positive association between these factors, and the results of the survey suggest the Love of Learning program is influencing children's attitude towards learning and school. This report highlights some of the design challenges and complexities when engaging children in participatory evaluation. Importantly, to ensure children are given an opportunity to provide feedback, they must be supported by their foster carer who need to also feel informed and confident to be part of the evaluation process and empower children to speak up. Further research will now be conducted to implement the evaluation process more widely and ascertain if the protective factors improve a child’s health, educational engagement, and performance.

Background: In an era of explosive growth in biomedical evidence, improving systematic review (SR) search processes is increasingly critical. Text-mining tools (TMTs) are a potentially powerful resource to improve and streamline search strategy development. Two types of TMTs are especially of interest to searchers: word frequency (useful for identifying most used keyword terms, e.g., PubReminer) and clustering (visualizing common themes, e.g., Carrot2). Objectives: The objectives of this study were to compare the benefits and trade-offs of searches with and without the use of TMTs for evidence synthesis products in real world settings. Specific questions included: (1) Do TMTs decrease the time spent developing search strategies? (2) How do TMTs affect the sensitivity and yield of searches? (3) Do TMTs identify groups of records that can be safely excluded in the search evaluation step? (4) Does the complexity of a systematic review topic affect TMT performance? In addition to quantitative data, we collected librarians' comments on their experiences using TMTs to explore when and how these new tools may be useful in systematic review search¬¬ creation. Methods: In this prospective comparative study, we included seven SR projects, and classified them into simple or complex topics. The project librarian used conventional “usual practice” (UP) methods to create the MEDLINE search strategy, while a paired TMT librarian simultaneously and independently created a search strategy using a variety of TMTs. TMT librarians could choose one or more freely available TMTs per category from a pre-selected list in each of three categories: (1) keyword/phrase tools: AntConc, PubReMiner; (2) subject term tools: MeSH on Demand, PubReMiner, Yale MeSH Analyzer; and (3) strategy evaluation tools: Carrot2, VOSviewer. We collected results from both MEDLINE searches (with and without TMTs), coded every citation’s origin (UP or TMT respectively), deduplicated them, and then sent the citation library to the review team for screening. When the draft report was submitted, we used the final list of included citations to calculate the sensitivity, precision, and number-needed-to-read for each search (with and without TMTs). Separately, we tracked the time spent on various aspects of search creation by each librarian. Simple and complex topics were analyzed separately to provide insight into whether TMTs could be more useful for one type of topic or another. Results: Across all reviews, UP searches seemed to perform better than TMT, but because of the small sample size, none of these differences was statistically significant. UP searches were slightly more sensitive (92% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 85–99%]) than TMT searches (84.9% [95% CI 74.4–95.4%]). The mean number-needed-to-read was 83 (SD 34) for UP and 90 (SD 68) for TMT. Keyword and subject term development using TMTs generally took less time than those developed using UP alone. The average total time was 12 hours (SD 8) to create a complete search strategy by UP librarians, and 5 hours (SD 2) for the TMT librarians. TMTs neither affected search evaluation time nor improved identification of exclusion concepts (irrelevant records) that can be safely removed from the search set. Conclusion: Across all reviews but one, TMT searches were less sensitive than UP searches. For simple SR topics (i.e., single indication–single drug), TMT searches were slightly less sensitive, but reduced time spent in search design. For complex SR topics (e.g., multicomponent interventions), TMT searches were less sensitive than UP searches; nevertheless, in complex reviews, they identified unique eligible citations not found by the UP searches. TMT searches also reduced time spent in search strategy development. For all evidence synthesis types, TMT searches may be more efficient in reviews where comprehensiveness is not paramount, or as an adjunct to UP for evidence syntheses, because they can identify unique includable citations. If TMTs were easier to learn and use, their utility would be increased.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.