Academic literature on the topic 'PANDEMIC SCENARIO'

This paper is concerned with the efficient stochastic simulation of multiple scenarios of an infectious disease as it propagates through a population. In particular, we propose a simple “green” method to speed up the simulation of disease transmission as we vary the probability of infection of the disease from scenario to scenario. After running a baseline scenario, we incrementally increase the probability of infection, and use the common random numbers variance reduction technique to avoid re-simulating certain events in the new scenario that would not otherwise have changed from the previous scenario. A set of Monte Carlo experiments illustrates the effectiveness of the procedure. We also propose various extensions of the method, including its use to estimate the sensitivity of propagation characteristics in response to small changes in the infection probability.

SUMMARYThe Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM) is a mathematical model developed to analyse two pandemic influenza control measures available to public health: antiviral treatment and immunization. PRAM is parameterized using surveillance data from Alberta, Canada during pandemic H1N1. Age structure and risk level are incorporated in the compartmental, deterministic model through a contact matrix. The model characterizes pandemic influenza scenarios by transmissibility and severity properties. Simulating a worst-case scenario similar to the 1918 pandemic with immediate stockpile release, antiviral demand is 20·3% of the population. With concurrent, effective and timely immunization strategies, antiviral demand would be significantly less. PRAM will be useful in informing policy decisions such as the size of the Alberta antiviral stockpile and can contribute to other pandemic influenza planning activities and scenario analyses.

Abstract This paper analyzes the insurability of pandemic risk and outlines how underwriting policies and scenario analysis are used to build resilience upfront and plan contingency actions for crisis scenarios. It then summarizes the unique “lessons learned” from the Covid-19 crisis by baselining actual developments against a reasonable, pre-Covid-19 pandemic scenario based on the 2002 SARS epidemic and 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic. Actual developments support the pre-Covid-19 hypothesis that financial market developments dominate claims losses due to the demographics of pandemics and other factors. However, Covid-19 “surprised” relative to the pre-Covid-19 scenario in terms of its impact on the real economy as well as on the property and casualty segment as business interruption property triggers and exclusions are challenged, something that may adversely impact the insurability of pandemics as well as the perception of the industry for some time to come. The unique lessons of Covid-19 reinforce the need for resilience upfront in solvency and liquidity, the need to improve business interruption wordings and re-underwrite the book, and the recognition that business interruption caused by pandemics may not be an insurable risk due to its large accumulation potential and the threat of external moral hazard. These insurability limitations lead to a discussion about the structure and financing of protection against the impact of future pandemics.

Regular activities, management, behavior, livelihood and regulations have been altered and customized during pandemic to cope with the newly appeared challenges. All steps of life have been affected unexpectedly. The epidemiological, political, clinical and psychosocial scenarios have been changing as the time passes; thus the initial guidelines and regulation are not enough to combat crisis over time. Keywords: covid, crisis, guideline, pandemic, testing

Introduction. The hotel business is traditionally considered a highly profitable area of foreign economic activity. The most significant risk factors are considered to be economic, political and social instability in countries and regions. In 2020, almost all global tourism and hotel businesses faced a serious challenge in their development – a severe crisis caused by the rapid spread of a pandemic of a new species of coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world. In the context of a global pandemic, to support the activities of the hotel business, it is necessary to clearly define the content and sequence of certain actions to achieve the goals, which determines the process of planning and forecasting the activities of the enterprise. Scenario planning is a fairly flexible process of describing possible future scenarios. This is part of strategic planning, which refers to the tools and technologies that manage future uncertainty. The purpose of the paper is to consider the scenario planning of the development of foreign economic activity of the hotel-type enterprise in conditions of economic uncertainty. The paper considers scenario planning as one of the most effective tools of strategic planning at the enterprise, which allows to forecast the development of events in the shortest possible time and update the planned indicators for its effective management. Results. In the course of this research the method of strategic planning is used – scenario planning, with the help of which all possible forecasts of events at the enterprise in crisis conditions are built. An analysis of hotel activities during the pandemic. The methods of scenario planning at the hotel business enterprise in the conditions of economic uncertainty are investigated. The difference between traditional and scenario approaches to strategic planning is clarified. Scenarios of possible events of the hotel business enterprise in the future in the conditions of a pandemic on the example of a scenario cross are developed. Conclusion. Scenario planning proved its effectiveness during the global pandemic, when hotel enterprises that applied scenario planning were ready for change and simply applied a different scenario, continuing to go with the flow. Scenarios for further development of foreign economic activity of the enterprise are determined.

In order to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic, the government issued a large-scale social restriction policy (PSBB). The policy in the form of restrictions on social activities will limit economic activity which ultimately has an impact on decreasing energy demand. This PSBB policy is challenge in implementing a national energy management plan, and might causes some of the energy planning targets not to be achieved. To analyze the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on national energy demand, an energy model was created using LEAP software. LEAP is a model for comprehensive energy planning from energy resources to energy use based on an accounting system. For the purposes of analysis, LEAP requires quite detailed data, in the form of socioeconomic data, energy data, and community activity data due to social restrictions. In this paper, the results of energy modeling simulation are discussed in terms of energy demand based on the scenario of no pandemic or bussiness as usual (BAU) and three pandemic scenarios, namely: optimistic (OPT), moderate (MOD), and pessimistic (PES) scenarios. Energy demand in 2020 is predicted to decrease by 10.7% (OPT scenario), 15.3% (MOD scenario), and 20.0% (PES scenario) compared to the BAU scenario. The model can still be further developed to analyze the impact, both on the overall of demand side and energy supply side and also environmental aspects.

Background: Scenario is one of the three main components of Problem-based Learning (PBL) besides students and tutors. Besides being an essential component in triggering interest in learning, scenarios also affect group dynamics and academic achievement. During the COVID-19 pandemic, most of the learning process was conducted online, including PBL tutorial discussions. Distraction during online PBL learning is a challenge that must be faced so that the discussion process can achieve the learning objectives. This condition requires the commitment of tutors and students and engaging scenarios that will also help students and tutors stay focused on the discussion. This article is a recommendation based on the IAMHPE Webinar #5 on the scenario development process to support the online PBL process. This article may provide a guide in developing PBL scenarios.Recommendation: The development of PBL scenarios in pandemic conditions still needs to consider various aspects of preparing a good and immersive scenario. The steps needed are ensuring the scenario development team, determining learning objectives and tutorial issues, designing innovative scenarios, conducting reviews and improving the quality of scenarios regularly, and preparing informative tutor guides.Conclusion: Scenarios for online PBL tutorials must support the application of the four PBL principles, namely constructive, contextual, self-directed learning, and collaborative learning. Each institution needs to create scenarios that are appropriate to its learning context.

This paper aims to understand the higher education teachers’ perspectives facing the necessity to adopt a full online learning methodology brought by COVID-19 pandemic situation. For this, we carried out a quantitative study by means of an online survey of teachers at the University of Valladolid, belonging to different categories and areas of knowledge. The aspects dealt with were, a) the tools used for teaching and evaluation, b) the perception of the teacher's previous preparation, c) the personal assessment of the work carried out, and d) the limitations observed in the development of teaching activity. The main conclusions include the high number of teachers who had never taught online, the feeling of unease when faced with an unknown scenario, the excessive stress derived from the need to transfer teaching to an unknown scenario, the excessive use of transmission of contents via virtual campus, the perception of ICT as mere assistants of the teaching-learning process or the excessive concern for plagiarism linked to the evaluation via exam.

This essay focuses on the post-Covid19 environment of entrepreneurial ideas that have potentials of success and growth in the coming years, providing an insight into the prolific funding being made available for University startups, especially in their early stages of development. To achieve this objective, it seems crucial to define firstly many terms frequently used and to determinate the involved variables. Whoever is able to predict this new post-Covid reality and glimpse the later scenario, will be better prepared for the new times, which will be as changing and indefinite as in the past. It seems the right time to transform ideas into realities. Whether it is a student presenting his thesis or an entrepreneur landing his postponed projects, this new scenario more than tempting forces to undertake. Through an University startup accelerator, it is possible to anticipate your competitors, learning about new proposals, counting on the advice and mentoring of independent professional experts. Universities with a sufficiently strong entrepreneurial ecosystem can serve as an ideal launch pad for startups founded by its own students and researchers.

Il mercato della purificazione d’aria indoor propone ad oggi sempre più soluzioni che adottano tecnologie e modalità diverse. Le tecnologie più tradizionali, ma riconosciute come le più efficaci a livello sanitario, utilizzano filtri per il trattamento dell’aria di tipologia HEPA. Altri prodotti, invece, propongo tecnologie alternative, le quali non aspirano e trattengono gli elementi dispersi in aria, ma agiscono immettendo sostanze nell’ambiente le quali reagiscono fisicamente e chimicamente con le polveri aerodisperse. Quindi volendo considerare solo i prodotti che utilizzano una filtrazione meccanica con filtri assoluti adeguati (HEPA H13) si considera che sono generalmente realizzati per ambienti domestici e che hanno delle grandi dimensioni che non gli permettono di adeguarsi all’ambiente in cui vengono inseriti ma bensì ne compromettono l’aspetto estetico diventando dei veri e propri elettrodomestici a vista. Lo scopo di questo progetto, quindi, è quello di ottenere un sistema di purificazione dell’aria efficiente con dimensioni ridotte rispetto a quelle dei prodotti già sul mercato in modo da renderlo mimetizzabile e modulabile all’interno degli ambienti target.

L’attuale emergenza pandemica da Sars-Cov2 non ha fatto altro che drammatizzare ancor di più il tanto controverso e discusso rapporto che Venezia, in particolar modo il centro storico insulare, ha con riguardo al fenomeno turistico. Una costante tensione tra vantaggi necessariamente economici che tale risorsa apporta alla città contrapposta alla disperata esigenza che questi non vadano a ledere e soffocare substrato sociale, storico e culturale del capoluogo veneto. Da sempre la Regina dei Mari, grazie alle sue peculiarità eco-sistemiche, si è costituita punto privilegiato di osservazione e attenzione globale per quanto riguarda i cambiamenti e le emergenze socio-climatiche di natura prettamente antropica; le devastanti e sempre più frequenti mareggiate di cui è stata vittima Venezia nell’ultimo decennio, hanno destato non poca preoccupazione esternata tanto a livello mediatico internazionale quanto tramite singoli appelli di personalità ben note nel mondo dello spettacolo e del cinema. Venezia infatti, si costituisce rifugio e casa per molti artisti, basti prendere come punta dell’iceberg la Biennale d’Arte e relative declinazioni nonché La Mostra Internazionale del Cinema. Da sempre è stata in grado di lasciare una forte impronta nello spirito di volti noti e popolari i cui messaggi e petizioni di allarme scuotono in maniera ancora maggiore, purtroppo o per fortuna, la coscienza delle masse. Ma Venezia non appartiene solo ai loro cuori bensì anche alle molte anime che qui tentano ancora di piantare radice, inclusi i poli di ricerca e atenei universitari. Non è un caso infatti, che proprio qui sia nata, nell’ultimo anno, la Fondazione Venezia Capitale Mondiale della Sostenibilità e, ancor più di recente, l’hub di innovazione strategica VeniSia, campeggiata proprio dall’Università Ca’ Foscari. Saprà dunque questa città, rinascere ancora una volta, cogliendo da questa emergenza pandemica che violentemente ha impattato contro noi tutti un’opportunità per ripensare anche alle modalità con cui il fenomeno turistico è stato concepito ed esperito fino ad ora? Sarà in grado di sfuggire al tanto profetizzato e oscuro destino che molti autori designano come tutt’altro che Serenissimo?

Il presente elaborato analizza gli effetti della pandemia del Covid-19 sulle scelte di mobilità sistematica. È stato appositamente sviluppato e inviato un questionario ad un campione della popolazione studentesca e lavoratrice dell’Università di Bologna. Il questionario conta complessivamente 32 domande e i dati di riferimento sono stati raccolti in 10 giorni. La ricostruzione degli scenari “Pre-Lockdown” e “Attuale” e l’utilizzo del software SPSS, hanno consentito di analizzare un campione di 3852 risposte, suddividendolo anche in base al genere e alle fasce d’età che sono risultati essere fattori discriminanti. Il 22% del campione ha dichiarato di aver cambiato le proprie scelte di trasporto. Lo studio della frequenza con cui avviene lo spostamento verso la sede, evidenzia una diversa distribuzione delle frequenze di viaggio con un notevole incremento della frequenza nulla. La distribuzione dei modi è fortemente variata: l’auto, oggi, risulta largamente più adoperata mentre i mezzi di trasporto pubblico sono i più penalizzati. Il calo dell’utilizzo dei modi bus e treno è evidente in maniera più marcata per il primo che per il secondo. La soddisfazione degli utenti circa il proprio viaggio è mutata: nel primo scenario l’Università è descritta come maggiormente accessibile, gli attributi di viaggio tempo e costo non soddisfano attualmente gli stessi utenti che dichiarano di sostenere un costo maggiore impiegando, mediamente, più tempo. La paura del contagio ha giocato un ruolo fondamentale nelle scelte modali, cosa non verificatasi con la riduzione dei posti disponibili a bordo e le limitazioni al servizio. Analisi più dettagliate sono state svolte mediante regressione logistica, cercando le relazioni più significative tra variabili dipendenti e indipendenti.

La musica classica ha sempre fatto parte del mondo dell’intrattenimento fino ai giorni nostri. In epoca contemporanea però, con l’evoluzione tecnologica, questa ha perso sempre più popolarità fino a essere considerata di nicchia o adatta solo a un certo tipo di persone, con un alto livello di cultura o sofisticate. Questa viene anche percepita difficile l’attenzione richiesta e la complessità considerata non accessibile a tutti. Le industrie culturali oggi devono affrontare problemi di monetizzazione del proprio mercato molto più che in precedenza, a causa delle nuove piattaforme digitali, dei nuovi media e del cambiamento della fruizione del prodotto culturale. La volatilità del prodotto e il cambiamento delle pratiche sociali hanno portato a nuove strategie per ottenere un ritorno degli investimenti e degli sforzi di produzione. L’aumento pervasivo dell’utilizzo di internet e dei social media richiede nuove tecniche per contrastare la pirateria digitale, la percezione delle persone e con il loro coinvolgimento. Dopo una panoramica sul funzionamento e le problematiche dell'industria musicale, viene analizzato l'ambito della musica classica come genere di nicchia, con le sue caratteristiche e pratiche peculiari, con uno sguardo all’Italia. Dopo un confronto, viene esaminato cosa è cambiato nell’era digitale e se la musica classica è riuscita a utilizzare nuove strategie, ad adattarsi alle novità del settore e del pubblico, osservando alcune realtà internazionali rilevanti. Nell’ultima parte si prende in considerazione il periodo della pandemia di covid-10 iniziata nel 2020 e si osserva quali problematiche sono emerse e come ha reagito il settore, concentrandosi soprattutto sull’ambito della musica dal vivo e sul contesto italiano. Si conclude quindi con delle considerazioni sull’efficacia delle strategie adottate e sull’impatto positivo che hanno avuto i media digitali per promuovere la musica classica dovuto alla spinta tecnologica causata dalla pandemia.

Ebola virus is a negative sense, single stranded RNA virus that leads to acute hemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman primates. This virus is impervious to a big portion of the known antiviral drugs and there is no effective treatment as on date for disease caused by this pathogen. Looking into its capability to create a pandemic scenario across globe, there is an ultimate need for new drugs and therapy to combat this infection. The recent study deals with the assessment of the inhibitory activity of flavonoids contrary to the four selected Ebola virus receptor proteins, using in-silico studies. The viral protein VP35 was docked with small molecules obtained from flavonoid class and its derivatives, assessed on the basis of energetics, stereochemical considerations and pharmacokinetic properties to isolate potential lead compounds. The results exposed that the top ranking screened flavonoids i.e., and shown well docking charge and binding energies in all the EBOV receptors when matched with that of the described compound. All the screened flavonoids have known antiviral activity, suitable pharmacokinetic property and are being used on human, hence can be taken as anti-Ebola treatment without the time lag for clinical trial. Ligands were identified based on the active sites and docked subsequently to find out the best ligand, 7-hydroxyflavone. This ligand has better binding energy than the all other ligands. Further, Lipinski’s filters, various others physicochemical properties and toxicity studies were also done to check the bioavailability and toxicity of the top ligands.

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and Management
The current health crisis is shaking the economic and financial world and Portugal was no exception. The present dissertation main goal is to assess the credit risk impact by the current situation due to COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal. The key objective is to evaluate credit inherent risk, in order to be able to intervene in advance and to mitigate possible risks, as well as predict likely defaults. In order to predict possible serious effects in terms of credit default having, the present dissertation has as its object the study of the impact of macroeconomic variables and their influence on credit default. An exploratory quantitative approach was used in the empirical study, complemented with a qualitative approach, focused fundamentally on the description of the results obtained with the SPSS software. Linear regression models were tested, which were defined as independent variable o credit default. As dependent variables the indicators of credit risk management; UR, LR, LMC, LCC, LBC, EUR, GDP, PSI, DIG, CPI, ER and CP. Among all these indicators of credit risk management used, the ones that had the greatest impact were the LR, LMC, UR, GDP, CPI and CP have more significant effect. However, the variable CP does not suggest the existence of a direct and reliable relationship between the independent variable, but recent studies refer to it as one of the most important to be considered. As noted in world history, the impacts of financial disasters, reinforce the need for systematic analysis and effective financial stability instruments. In order to forecast those situations, stress testing will be used to predict possible scenarios of induced financial crisis by the current healthy crisis, such as credit risk, in specific. To be able to foresee, a country macroeconomic analysis is needed, by merging several credit components, as established by the Basel agreements. The data herein as reference has taken from Banco de Portugal, INE, Stooq and oecd, since the 2003 to 2020, in order to be provisions regarding economic.

ABSTRACT Future Scenarios on Multilateralism: Global Governance Models for Efficient (Economic) Policy Coordination Christin Pfeiffer One has to acknowledge that we live in an extremely fast-paced, interdependent society with the Covid-19 pandemic having put the world upside down. Economically speaking, nothing is currently as it was before 2020 and global recovery is moving at increasingly different speed. This research aims at addressing the state-of-the-art of multilateral cooperation and related mechanisms, which appeared to be caught in a blind alley since a while but have recently been put under spotlight all at a sudden due to the global crisis, showing the clear need for multilateral governance models that are fit-for-purpose in the 21st century. After recalling existing fora for international exchange, the work examines selected, rather recently established platforms and initiatives with the purpose to shed light on their perception and impact when implementing international cooperation agreements, by analyzing strengths and weaknesses of their processes and functioning, and by carefully focusing on eventual potential for improvement. By deep diving into an assessment of key elements of multilateral mechanisms that promote and actively perform economic cooperation, the intention is to define good practices based on relevant characteristics that contribute positively to a fruitful negotiation process, able to reshape and upgrade multilateralism to be functional, inclusive, representative and sustainable for the 21st century. This comprises providing insights on new alliances building, elucidating the raison d’être of new groupings emerging in certain geopolitical circumstances or with regard to specific thematic issues, with the final aim to outline a balanced scenario of future global governance models which allow peaceful co-living and take a conscious exploitation of resources into account. By doing so, the research touches upon the subject of how to potentially renew international institutions including their mandate – a tightrope act, given the implications on the difficult question around possibly necessary reforms of the multilateral apparatus as such, its leadership, imprint on values, and representativeness against the backdrop of the current power distribution. This analysis finally looks at concerns targeting security (especially with regard to critical digital infrastructures) and stability, potentially assuming the main global currency would not abide by the dollar and the IMF suffer competition in a medium run. Ultimately, this culminates in the attempt to sketch ways to redesign the multilateral process, given the world’s “multiplexity”, with numerous challenges for humanity ahead as tangles to untie. Against this backdrop, the work brainstorms and puts forward some proposals on prerequisites concerning the ability of the West to accept the coexistence of open democracies and other political systems, in order to be able to jointly fight global threats as the climate crisis or future pandemics. It finally calls for heads of government showing courage and enlightened leadership skills, in order to move towards reconciliation and find a compromise for a new, rules-based world order, allowing all economies to recover and unleash their potential for resilience to a reasonable extent.

The Covid-19 pandemic has had unprecedented and dramatic consequences on the cultural activities and the development of tourism in italian cities. In the midst of this scenario, the Department of History, Archeology, Geography, Art, and the Performing Arts (SAGAS) of the University of Florence organized three days of online conferences in which representatives of political and cultural institutions, along with qualified observers, expressed their views on the future of cultural policy after the health crisis. This book is a collection of all those “voices on the future of our heritage” that spoke in this series of videoconferences. This publication aims at ensuring that they can be heard by a wider audience, to start a reflection on the possibility of redesigning Florence’s cultural and touristic offerings. To bring about such a change, it is necessary to think within a new framework, one that aims at integrating itineraries capable of embracing the entire city, its histories, and its communities.

Nell’anno 2020 l’Italia ha dovuto fare i conti con la crisi sanitaria ed economica determinata dalla diffusione del virus COVID-19. La straordinarietà della situazione, con l’Europa alle prese con lockdown e fermi produttivi, ha portato l’Osservatorio a far seguire alla tradizionale rilevazione avviata a fine Febbraio 2020 una seconda indagine di approfondimento mirata a raccogliere le prime reazioni delle imprese della filiera alla crisi da coronavirus. Questa edizione del volume è, quindi, particolarmente ricca di spunti in quanto collega la fotografia del 2019 alla situazione generata dalla pandemia nel 2020. Il quadro complessivo è quello di una filiera i cui risultati in termini di fatturato, produzione ed export erano già in contrazione nel 2019 e, di conseguenza, particolarmente esposta alla crisi del 2020, soprattutto per alcune categorie di imprese meno resilienti. Il superamento di questa situazione critica potrà giocarsi sulla capacità di sviluppare aggregazioni e reti per l’innovazione, con obiettivi importanti di competitività dell’intera filiera sullo scenario internazionale.

The modern economy is characterized by a high level of dynamism of the factors of the external and internal environment of enterprises, influencing the possibility of their stable development. With the transition of the Russian economy to market methods of doing business, in which enterprise management must take into account various scenarios, risk becomes an integral element of socio-economic relations. Risk is present in all spheres of life, regardless of whether its presence is taken into account in the situation of choosing an alternative method of managing a business entity or not. The presence of risk is a significant factor in the development of business and the economy as a whole. To minimize and neutralize risks, the enterprise must constantly ensure its safety. In modern conditions, due to the pandemic and economic downturn, enterprises are forced to revise their methods of safety management and risk neutralization. This monograph, dedicated to modern problems of business security management, is the result of the joint work of teachers and students of the Department of Economic Security, Accounting and Law of the Don State Technical University.

The use of war-related metaphors by Western political leaders to frame the COVID19 pandemic has drawn strong criticism, both in the media and among critical discourse analysts. A particular reference point in such criticisms has been the long-standing critique of the illness-as war metaphor because it frames patients’ bodies as battlegrounds and favours ‘radical cure’ solutions that prioritize elimination of the illness as an enemy. This paper investigates the links between the pandemic as war metaphor scenario and Covid-19-related conspiracy theories in the sense of flawed, i.e. empirically and/or logically unwarranted theories (UCTs), with special reference to the anti-Chinese Covid-19-UCT that was used by the former US President Trump and other conspiracists who pretended to be in a situation of self-defense that entitled them to commit acts of resistance against a perceived war enemy. It is, however, important to distinguish routine uses of the war-metaphor from narratively elaborated, ideologically invested metaphor scenarios such as Trump’s appeal to fight the “China virus”. It is the latter that can best be exploited in conspiracy theories for their implications, e.g. the identification of supposed ‘culprits’ and ‘traitors’ and the legitimacy of ‘fighting back’ against them. For this reason, “reframing” efforts, which have been proposed for Covid-19 in terms of the pandemic as war metaphor, should not target whole source domains but concentrate specifically on critiquing those scenarios that lead to the stigmatization of social/national groups.

AbstractExtreme disruptive events, such as the volcano eruption in Iceland, the Japanese tsunami, and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as constant changes in customers’ needs and expectations, have forced supply chains to continuously adapt to new environments. Consequently, it is paramount to understand the supply chain characteristics for possible future scenarios, in order to know how to respond to threats and take advantage of the opportunities that the next years will bring. This chapter focuses on describing the characteristics of the supply chain in each of the six macro-scenarios presented in Sardesai et al. (2020b), as final stage of the scenario building methodology. Supply chains for each scenario are characterized in eight dimensions: Products and Services, Supply Chain Paradigm, Sourcing and Distribution, Technology Level, Supply Chain Configuration, Manufacturing Systems, Sales Channel, and Sustainability.

Vaccination is becoming one of the most important epidemic control measures in the post-pandemic era, and the pandemic has accelerated the development of various forms of COVID-19 vaccines. The inhaled vaccine has entered clinical trials as a more convenient form of vaccination. However, the nebulization equipment used in the experiments was not specifically designed for the public health care scenario of inhaled vaccine nebulization. It could not reflect the advantages and characteristics of the inhaled vaccine. This study is based on the scenario-based design theory to design practical application solutions for inhaled vaccine nebulization equipment. Methods: Using a scenario simulation experiment and semi-structured interviews we identified the behavioral requirements of medical staff in the inhaled vaccination scenario and invited expert participants to validate. Results: Based on interview analysis, 20 behavioral requirements and an inhaled vaccine medical staff persona were identified. Five optimized scenarios were designed according to scenario-based design theory. Scenarios were evaluated by expert participants, and the prototype was developed based on feedback. The prototype design concept focused on "optimizing human-machine interaction", "improving disposable inhaler design", and "optimizing vaccine reagent dosing process". Conclusion: The prototype was evaluated by experts to be effective and reasonable for practical application scenarios of the inhaled vaccine. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for innovative product design in public medical service scenarios.

Due to the fast-changing environment caused by the impact of the pandemic, a response to companies’ behavior is inevitable. These pan­demic crisis scenario triggers searching for changes, adjustment, and adap­tation of business models to seek new opportunities for competitive advan­tage. Therefore, the paper aims to analyze, identify and evaluate the impact of a pandemic on a firm´s business model, specifically to changes in its busi­ness elements. The research methodology applies a statistical apparatus mainly the Mann-Whitney U test, using the econometric software EViews for identifying the significance of individual business model elements within national economy sectors and branches before the pandemic and the cur­rent post-pandemic crisis. Data were obtained from 173 Czech and Slovak companies’ owners (executives). The findings represent the perception and view of businesses on the current post-pandemic crisis and their priorities changes in specific elements of business model

The COVID-19 crisis generated a sudden need for businesses to start operating remotely, and for employees to work from home. In consequence, the use of telework increased rapidly in Latin America and the Caribbean as it did globally. However, differences on the severity of containment measures by country, access to internet, and particularities of each country's labor markets may have played a role in the divergence of trends across countries in the post-pandemic scenario. We use data from LinkedIn in 7 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, between January 2020 and April 2022, to shed some light on how telework evolved in a selection of countries in the region during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This note summarizes four findings associated with telework adoption and on the divergences in telework behavior across countries in the post-pandemic period. First, countries with more strict government containment measures experienced higher telework rates along 2020; second, telework adoption seems unrelated with countries' internet network coverage and internet network performance; third, telework adoption reflects the dynamics of the labor demand and was driven mostly by the professional services economic sector; and finally, it seems evident that telework will not return to its pre-pandemic levels and it is here to stay.

SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible for the infectious disease COVID-19 (Gorbalenya et al 2020 (Opens in a new window)), was first detected in the human population in December 2019 (Zhu et al 2020 (Opens in a new window)). It has since spread to become a global pandemic. Previously, two other novel coronaviruses caused illness in the human population. The first, SARS-CoV (for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) was recognised as a new illness in 2004 and the second, MERS-CoV (for Middle East respiratory syndrome) in 2012 (de Wit et al. 2016). These previous coronavirus outbreaks in humans occurred after bat coronaviruses passed through intermediate hosts (civet cats and camels, respectively) and then transmitted to infect humans (de Wit et al. 2016). SARS-CoV-2 infections in companion animals such as dogs, cats and ferrets and also in captive or farmed animals such as tigers and mink have been observed, likely as spill over events from contact with infected humans (WOAH 2022). There is now a large body of evidence from the United States that SARS-CoV-2 is capable of infecting white-tailed deer and that it can then spread further in the deer population (details in “What is the risk of SARS-CoV-2 being introduced into the cervid population in Great Britain?” (Defra, 2022). Assuming a worst-case scenario where SARS-CoV-2 is circulating within the UK deer population, this risk assessment was performed to determine whether handling and/or consuming UK-produced deer meat and/or offal may pose a risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 in humans.

The next parliamentary elections of the Czech Republic, which will be held on 8 and 9 October 2021, is a key political event for the Hungarian foreign policy expert community to watch this year because a possible new government without the participation of ANO 2011 can engage in a new European and neighbourhood policy of the Czech Republic. This analysis lists the key social and political factors that can shape the results of the election, outlines three possible scenarios of the election outcome, and highlights the implications of a possible government change on Czech-Hungarian relations.

The pandemic has changed the way organizations work and operate. With the constant quest to increase performance and productivity, this report explores how organizations and individuals could reinvent the ways they work. Azim Pawanchik presents challenges to employee productivity and high performance, possible scenarios using the platform approach to work, and dives deep into how knowledge-based work such as research, data analysis, communication, or decision-making can be innovated and transformed in “the exponential workplace.”

What is the potential impact of vaccination programs and different fiscal adjustment scenarios on countries after suffering the macro-fiscal effects of the pandemic? We calibrate a DSGE model with an epidemiological module for the average Latin American and Caribbean economy that uses fiscal policy and vaccination to contain these effects. We nd that there is a trade-off in the application of one of these policies. Focusing on vaccination has a high return in saving lives and improving economic growth but a lower fiscal adjustment. We conclude that simultaneous vaccination and fiscal reform is a successful policy combination that helps countries mitigate the health effects of the pandemic, reduce the economic cost of fiscal policy, and move toward a path of fiscal consolidation.

This paper presents a first approximation to assess the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Argentinas pension system in both the short and medium/long-term. To this end, we have used the Pension Projection Model of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to design and analyze possible scenarios and outcomes, based on alternative scenarios. According to the data analyzed and the projections, the impact of COVID-19 on Argentinas pension system in the short run seems to have been limited, particularly given the rapid recovery during the last months of 2021. The long-term impact is harder to predict. Given the macroeconomic effects of the efforts made by authorities to protect the system and pensioners during the pandemic on the one hand; and the effects of COVID-19 within the labor market on the other, overall consequences are still to be fully understood.

The rapid development of transformative transportation technologies, such as bike-sharing, shared e-scooters, and ride-hailing systems, is reshaping the transportation landscape. These transformative transportation technologies have the potential to significantly change travel behavior and travel demand and affect transportation agencies’ planning, operations, and decision-making. The objective of this project is to develop a framework and models to quantify the potential travel demand and mobility impacts of transformative transportation technologies in Indiana cities. This project analyzed historical system usage data and conducted survey studies to evaluate the availability and use of transformative transportation technologies in select Indiana cities. The project also proposed a data-driven model to study the relationship between shared micro-mobility and the existing transit system and developed a simulation model to analyze the potential mode choice change under different future development scenarios. Additionally, based on a comprehensive literature review, a list of operations; environmental, health and safety; and accessibility and equity metrics were identified as the Key Performance Indicators to evaluate transformative transportation technologies. Furthermore, as this study was conducted in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the impacts of the pandemic on both traditional and transformative transportation systems were also examined as documented in the literature and stated in our survey.

With economies around the world facing more dire challenges as an immediate result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the need for national governments to borrow funds has grown. The abrupt increase in debt level highlights the importance of implementing suitable models to project emerging debt scenarios and assess debt sustainability. Given that sustainable debt levels vary from country to country, we applied the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis to assess the Philippines’ debt burden over time to be used as an input in the construction of a debt index tracker that incorporates other relevant fiscal and economic indicators. The index tracker serves as an aggregate barometer on whether debt levels have breached the sustainable threshold level. Furthermore, we will utilize the debt tracker to show the implicit debt ceiling and the available fiscal policy room that can respond to the next potential shock.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.