Academic literature on the topic 'Page turner'

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Journal articles on the topic "Page turner"

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Corcoran, Clodagh, and Rose Doyle. "Page Turner." Books Ireland, no. 255 (2003): 15. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/20632530.

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Anscombe, N. "Page turner." Engineering & Technology 5, no. 18 (December 4, 2010): 26–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1049/et.2010.1804.

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Aluţei, Alexandra Maria, Beniamin Vasile Chetran, Ion Lungu, and Dan Mândru. "Automatic Page Turner." Solid State Phenomena 166-167 (September 2010): 27–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/ssp.166-167.27.

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This paper presents the development of an Assistive Technology representative product: an automatic page turner system, designed for persons with issues like multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s disease and other various disabilities that involve the motor functions of the upper limbs. Firstly, the authors emphasize specific features of Assistive Technology and analyse the most important functional aspects concerning different types of page turner devices. The proposed page turner system is based on a four-bar mechanism. Design aspects from the constructive and functional points of view are exposed and the developed prototype is described.
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Anastasi, Amanda. "The Page Turner." Massachusetts Review 57, no. 4 (2016): 734. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mar.2016.0119.

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Nakazawa, Masaru, Takashi Kawamura, and Hirotaka Ishikawa. "Study on Single Sheet Separation from Stacked Flexible Sheets." Journal of Robotics and Mechatronics 10, no. 3 (June 20, 1998): 221–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jrm.1998.p0221.

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We presents a study on separating a single sheet from stacked flexible sheets such as paper, conducted to develop a higher-performance page turner for the disabled. The page turner must separate a single sheet of paper from stacked multiple sheets each time a page is turned. Human dexterity separating sheets using two fingers when turn page was considered, the mechanical principle involved discussed, and experiments and theory compared.
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Reed, M. Ann. "Van cliburn's page turner." Psychological Perspectives 47, no. 1 (January 2004): 148–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00332920408407137.

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Kirkham, Anne. "Contextualising the Interloper: Consistency and Inconsistency in Rylands Latin MS 164." Bulletin of the John Rylands Library 93, no. 1 (March 2017): 23–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.7227/bjrl.93.1.2.

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Rylands Latin MS 164 is one of over forty manuscript books of hours in the John Rylands Library. It was made in France in the middle of the fifteenth century and its extensive, high quality illumination associates its production with the worshop of the so-called Bedford Master. However, it has not been the subject of any sustained published research and consequently the significance of variations in the mise-en-page of the books pages has not been scrutinised. This article focuses on the variations in two replacement pages, one within the calendar and one beginning the Penitential Psalms, and in the case of the page beginning the Penitential Psalms considers whether the replacement could have been made by Sir Gregory Osborne Page-Turner, the owner of Rylands Latin MS 164 in the early nineteenth century.
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Tamei, Miho, Masahiro Yamada, Yoshihiro Watanabe, and Masatoshi Ishikawa. "Automatic Page Turner Machine for High-speed Book Digitization." Journal of the Robotics Society of Japan 31, no. 7 (2013): 712–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.7210/jrsj.31.712.

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Hansen, Regina. "“That's a page-turner!”: Supernatural, God and Narrative Agency." Monstrum 3, no. 2 (2021): 43. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/1102496ar.

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Chaudier, Stéphane. "LAURENT MAUVIGNIER, DES HOMMES : QU’EST-CE QU’UN BON PAGE TURNER ?" RELIEF - REVUE ÉLECTRONIQUE DE LITTÉRATURE FRANÇAISE 6, no. 2 (December 12, 2012): 28. http://dx.doi.org/10.18352/relief.791.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Page turner"

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Hansson, Clare. "Marian McPartland, jazz pianist : an overview of a musical career." Queensland University of Technology, 2006. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/16621/.

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This, the first study at doctoral level of any white female jazz instrumentalist, provides an overview to the long, active and enduring musical career of British-born, New York-based jazz pianist, Marian McPartland (born 1918). For over six decades, besides being a pianist and a composer, she has been prominent in the professional roles of educator, writer, record producer and recording artist, radio broadcaster and advocate. The scope and impact of this multi-layered career are conveyed through the medium of a Website profiling significant aspects of her professional life through textual, aural and visual presentation. Although not claiming to be exhaustive, this Website brings together a comprehensive collection of data covering all aspects of Marian McPartland's career. Data have been gathered and collated from material in the public domain, and all such sources are acknowledged and referenced. The Website is navigable through three links at the bottom of the Home Page - 1) Historical Perspective; 2) Selected Analyses; and 3) Marian McPartland In Context. Part One of the Website provides access to Marian McPartland's various professional roles in jazz, as well as public profiles, and is consolidated by listings of support material. Part Two of the Website contains formal analyses of four of her compositions, each preceded by a short introduction. The analyses are based on scores transcribed from her recorded improvisations. A discussion of her stylistic approach follows the analyses. Part Three of the Website contextualizes Marian McPartland as a woman in jazz during its major historical and stylistic movements. An Introduction and a Conclusion provide the academic framework for this study. The Introduction outlines the rationale for the study, the dimensions of the study, the methodologies used, and the research process. The Conclusion provides critical commentary on Marian McPartland's musical career, and deductions are made about her significance in and contribution to jazz, based on the evidence presented in the Website. A CD of the entire Website completes the presentation of this thesis, included under Supplementary Material in the back pocket of the thesis. This overview of Marian McPartland's entire career makes an original contribution to knowledge on this jazz artist, and, in a broader sense, provides an important resource for future research in the area of jazz music and musicians.
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Ganioglu, Aytul. "Sequencing, Pace And Timing Of Financial Liberalization Process In Turkey With Implications On The Macroeconomic Environment." Phd thesis, METU, 2006. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12607124/index.pdf.

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This study basically analyzes timing, sequencing and pace of the financial liberalization experience of the Turkish economy in the 1980s and evaluates its implications for the crises in the Turkish economy since the 1990s. The objectives of this study are threefold: Firstly, it aims to reveal the main policy objectives and political factors pushing the government to take capital account liberalization decision in 1989. It is concluded that domestic decision makers have shaped and taken the decision of capital account liberalization in 1989, while the interaction of economic and political factors has played a major role in its timing. Secondly, it examines the extent to which economic and political institutional weaknesses in the Turkish economy, which generated inappropriate sequencing of financial liberalization policies in the 1980s, can be held responsible for the crises of 2000 and 2001 crises. It is concluded that financial liberalization policies were inappropriately sequenced, as domestic financial market and capital account liberalization were not accompanied or preceded by macroeconomic stability and financial sector institutional reforms such as prudential regulation and supervision of the banking sector. These factors have been instrumental in the crises episodes in Turkey through contributing to an environment conducive to crises. Thirdly, it aims to analyze whether there exists a clear association between weaknesses in the regulation and supervision of the banking sector and banking crises through an empirical analysis. It is concluded that the nature of the banking crises is more associated with the institutional structure of the financial system rather than macroeconomic conditions of the economy.
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Pagel, Holger [Verfasser], and Thilo [Akademischer Betreuer] Streck. "Microbial regulation of pesticide degradation coupled to carbon turnover in the detritusphere / Holger Pagel. Betreuer: Thilo Streck." Hohenheim : Kommunikations-, Informations- und Medienzentrum der Universität Hohenheim, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1074912470/34.

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Hansson, Clare. "Marian McPartland, jazz pianist : an overview of a musical career." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2006. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/16621/1/Clare_Hansson_Thesis.pdf.

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This, the first study at doctoral level of any white female jazz instrumentalist, provides an overview to the long, active and enduring musical career of British-born, New York-based jazz pianist, Marian McPartland (born 1918). For over six decades, besides being a pianist and a composer, she has been prominent in the professional roles of educator, writer, record producer and recording artist, radio broadcaster and advocate. The scope and impact of this multi-layered career are conveyed through the medium of a Website profiling significant aspects of her professional life through textual, aural and visual presentation. Although not claiming to be exhaustive, this Website brings together a comprehensive collection of data covering all aspects of Marian McPartland's career. Data have been gathered and collated from material in the public domain, and all such sources are acknowledged and referenced. The Website is navigable through three links at the bottom of the Home Page - 1) Historical Perspective; 2) Selected Analyses; and 3) Marian McPartland In Context. Part One of the Website provides access to Marian McPartland's various professional roles in jazz, as well as public profiles, and is consolidated by listings of support material. Part Two of the Website contains formal analyses of four of her compositions, each preceded by a short introduction. The analyses are based on scores transcribed from her recorded improvisations. A discussion of her stylistic approach follows the analyses. Part Three of the Website contextualizes Marian McPartland as a woman in jazz during its major historical and stylistic movements. An Introduction and a Conclusion provide the academic framework for this study. The Introduction outlines the rationale for the study, the dimensions of the study, the methodologies used, and the research process. The Conclusion provides critical commentary on Marian McPartland's musical career, and deductions are made about her significance in and contribution to jazz, based on the evidence presented in the Website. A CD of the entire Website completes the presentation of this thesis, included under Supplementary Material in the back pocket of the thesis. This overview of Marian McPartland's entire career makes an original contribution to knowledge on this jazz artist, and, in a broader sense, provides an important resource for future research in the area of jazz music and musicians.
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Berenhaus, Molly. "'Like a sound of a page being turned in a book' : an exploration of the embodied strategies and subjective experiences that contribute to successful reading comprehension in both children and adults." Thesis, University of Sussex, 2018. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/73555/.

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The main aims of the current doctoral thesis included: (1) comparing the impact of different embodiment (manipulation versus enactment) and (2) perspective-taking strategies on children (9 to 10-year-olds) and adults' (18 to 30-year-olds) comprehension of narrative texts. In addition, we aimed to (3) better understand children's subjective experience (e.g., “What's going in your head while reading x?”) while reading normally; e.g., at home or in the classroom. Chapter 2 investigated the benefits of storyboard construction (SB), i.e., creating a visual representation of a narrative text using plastic cut-outs, on 5 children's comprehension monitoring and story recall. We found that children who constructed a storyboard while reading remembered more of the narrative texts versus business-as-usual controls and formed more coherent narratives during recall. Contrary to previous research (Rubman & Waters, 2000), SB had no positive impact on children's comprehension monitoring ability. Chapter 3 included a subset (25 out of 35) of children from Chapter 2 and aimed to capture the nuances of children's experience while reading normally and how those experiences map onto comprehension performance. We found that children who reported taking the perspective of a story's character (either spatially, emotionally and/or cognitively), while reading normally, performed better on measures from Chapter 1 (e.g., coherence of recall) than children who did not. Chapter 3 presented a yearlong, longitudinal training study, which compared the immediate and long-term benefits of SB and Active Experiencing (AE), the act of becoming fully engrossed in communicating a text to another person, on children in Year 5's literal and inferential comprehension of emotion and spatial information in narrative texts. SB was found to improve children's story recall and performance on spatial-based questions immediately after training compared to other conditions (AE and controls). The benefits of SB training on recall continued three and six months later. In addition, AE training improved children's performance on emotion-based questions, but only immediately after training. Finally, Chapter 4 first (Experiment 1) examined the effects of encouraging young adults to imagine themselves performing the actions of a protagonist or feeling what the protagonist is feeling (to empathise) while reading excerpts from Dubliners by James Joyce on their comprehension and emotional arousal. Empathising with the protagonist was found to increase readers' arousal, an indication of emotional reactivity. To follow up, we next measured the effects of encouraging young adults (Experiment 2) and children (Experiment 3) to empathise (feel what the character is feeling) or sympathise (care about how the character is feeling) with a story's protagonist while reading on a variety of inferential and literal comprehension questions. Young adults encouraged to sympathise with a story's protagonist had a particular advantage on comprehending literal emotion information about the protagonist as well as non-emotional, non-character-focused inferential and literal information. There was no effect of perspective-taking prompt on children's comprehension.
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Tsai, Shuo-Kai, and 蔡碩凱. "Page Turner Design from the Viewpoint of Upper Limb Handicap''s Needs." Thesis, 2000. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/90092773689557653167.

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碩士
大葉大學
工業設計研究所
88
The most common clinical symptom of handicaps is cervical marrow nerve, it’s because that the injury of spinal marrow will leads to handicap in his/her movements; thus, such people have to rely on high technology assistive devices . Currently, due to these assistive devices have to be imported from foreign countries, they are quite expensive. In addition, the maintenance and training will also increase the costs. Therefore, it is of great urgency that the high technology assistive devices have to be developed domestically. To better develop the handicap’s living assiative devices, it is necessary to take handicaps’ life needs and critical problems faced into consideration. The purpose of this study is to explore the design of Page Turner from the perspective of handicaps’ needs. By way of understanding handicaps’ functional demands for reading, Product model will be built up to provide handicaps more comfortable and convenience reading devices。 The research is to conduct questionnaire and observation method to users. The questionnaire adopt AIO (Activity, Interest, Opinion) scale method to inquiry into user behavior, attitude, and demands to conceive Page Tuner design. Afterwards, the prototype of Page Tuner was built up and then was proved by the real product. Then, the conclusions and suggestions were proposed accordingly. The findings of the handicap life style from testing objects and the demands for Page Tuner will be used for further related studies.
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Books on the topic "Page turner"

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Leavitt, David. The Page Turner: A Novel. London: Abacus, 1999.

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Leavitt, David. The page turner: A novel. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1998.

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Page turner. Edmonds, Washington: Hopetoun Publishing, 2015.

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Leavitt, David. Page Turner. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Trade & Reference Publishers, 2012.

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Leavitt, David. Page Turner. Little, Brown Book Group Limited, 2015.

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Leavitt, David. Page Turner. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company, 2012.

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Leavitt, David. The Page Turner. Mariner Books, 1999.

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Page Turner Project. Lerner Publishing Group, 2024.

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Leavitt, David. The Page Turner. Abacus, 1999.

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The Page Turner. Houghton Mifflin, 1998.

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Book chapters on the topic "Page turner"

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Chen, Shih-Chung, Wei-Jhe Hong, Yan-Chun Chen, Shih-Chang Hsieh, and Sung-Yuan Yang. "The Page Turner Controlled by BCI." In IFMBE Proceedings, 1534–37. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-14515-5_391.

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Mirazimzadeh, Seyed Ali, and Victoria McArthur. "Automatic Page-Turner for Pianists with Wearable Motion Detector." In Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 209–18. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60117-1_15.

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Zhu, Xiurong, and Xinyue Wang. "Design of Electrical Control System for Portable Automatic Page Turner." In Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 482–87. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-4572-0_70.

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Chen, S. C., A. R. See, C. K. Liang, and Y. Y. Lee. "Evaluating the Performance of the P300-Based Brain Computer Interface for the LEGO Page Turner." In Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 765–71. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04573-3_95.

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Quassdorf, Sixta. "The Relevance of Turning a Page: Monotony and Complexity in §25 of David Foster Wallace's The Pale King." In Powerful Prose, 189–206. Bielefeld, Germany: transcript Verlag, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.14361/9783839458808-012.

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Sixta Quassdorf analyzes §25 of David Foster Wallace's novel The Pale King. In both form and content, the chapter reveals a masterly condensation of the human in a dehumanized bureaucracy. While the phrase »turns a page« is repeated about 100 times, representing the power of monotony and alienation, we also find variation, rhythmic disruption and flashes of poetic insight that reveal the unassailability of human creativity. In addition, by experiencing formal elements that echo the narrative's meaning, the reader is almost put into the protagonists' position, which goes beyond simply »turning pages.«
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Gildner, Gary. "THE PAGE TURNER." In Blue Like The Heavens, 99. University of Pittsburgh Press, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/jj.13817914.47.

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"Copyright Page." In The Speeches of Bishop Henry McNeal Turner, edited by Andre E. Johnson, iii—iv. University Press of Mississippi, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.14325/mississippi/9781496843852.002.0003.

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Morrill, John. "Posthumous reputation." In J. M. W. Turner, 108–19. Oxford University PressOxford, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199217557.003.0009.

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Abstract Cromwell’s reputation has ebbed and flowed. Since the death of the generation that knew him as their head of state more than 160 full-length biographies have appeared, and more than 1000 separate publications bear his name. In 1929 Wilbur Cortez Abbott, limbering up to produce his four-volume, 3400-page, 2-million-word edition and com- mentary, The Writings and Speeches of Oliver Cromwell, produced a bibliography of 3520 pamphlets, books, and essays in which Cromwell makes a prominent appearance. An updated list would probably be in excess of 6000 items. There was a crescendo of interest in the later nineteenth century, triggered by the appearance of Thomas Carlyle’s edition of Cromwell’s letters and speeches in December 1845.
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Turner, Nat. "[Page 7] Confession." In The Confessions of Nat Turner, the Leader of the Late Insurrection in Southampton, Va., 17–32. University of North Carolina Press, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.5149/northcarolina/9780807869451.003.0002.

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Turner, Nat. "[Page 3] To the Public." In The Confessions of Nat Turner, the Leader of the Late Insurrection in Southampton, Va., 13–16. University of North Carolina Press, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.5149/northcarolina/9780807869451.003.0001.

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Conference papers on the topic "Page turner"

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Xuan Zheng and Yuanwu Shi. "The automatic book page turner for disabled individuals." In 2008 9th International Conference on Computer-Aided Industrial Design & Conceptual Design (CAID/CD). IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/caidcd.2008.4730555.

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Watanabe, Yoshihiro, Miho Tamei, Masahiro Yamada, and Masatoshi Ishikawa. "Automatic page turner machine for high-speed book digitization." In 2013 IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS 2013). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iros.2013.6696364.

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Nakazawa, Nobuaki, Ilhwan Kim, Hiroki Murakawa, and Toshikazu Matsui. "Development of Gazing Interface for Operation of a Page Turner Machine." In 2013 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics (SMC 2013). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/smc.2013.720.

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Mohammed, Pola. "The Analysis of the Talented Mr. Ripley Novel." In 3rd International Conference on Language and Education. Cihan University-Erbil, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.24086/iclangedu2023/paper.949.

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The Talented Mr. Ripley is a psychological thriller novel that delves into the complexity of human identity, socioeconomic class, and the American Dream through themes such as deception, envy, and the pursuit of self-fulfillment. Written by Patricia Highsmith and released in 1955, the novel has received widespread recognition for its nuanced characterization of the protagonist, Tom Ripley, who expertly embodies the psychological and moral complications of these themes. The novel addresses essential themes concerning the nature of human identity and how social rank, class, and the American Dream impact our goals, ideals, and our actions through critical reading and analysis of the text. This novel is not just a page-turner but also a literary work that offers a comprehensive review of human psychology, morals, and the society in which we live
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Mariappan, Jawaharlal, Angela Shih, Peter G. Schrader, and Robert Elmore. "Scenario-Based Learning and Multimedia in Improving Engineering Education." In ASME 2004 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2004-57704.

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Use of multimedia and new technologies has become very common in education and the corporate training industry. Unlike text-on-the-screen (page-turner) instructions, multimedia based interactions involve audio, video, animation and rich graphics. These attributes are very appealing to learners, and have become the predominant approach to deliver self-paced learning material. The use of multimedia and computer-based training has improved web-based as well as computer-based training and instructional delivery tremendously. However, providing an authentic learning experience requires much more than multimedia. It requires an active learning approach built on sound principles of instructional design. Scenario Based Learning (SBL) is an effective pedagogical approach which utilizes new technology and provides an excellent framework for active learning. This paper presents a SBL approach and its application to teach engineering. This approach will engage learners, increase their interest, improve knowledge retention, and facilitate understanding of the physical meaning behind abstract concepts.
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Tavares, Tatiana. "Carnival Land: An creative consideration of sequential storytelling to discuss cultural dislocation." In LINK 2023. Tuwhera Open Access, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.24135/link2022.v4i1.196.

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This presentation will outline the practice-led research project Carnival Land, a picture book that weaves together sequential storytelling and illustration to discuss cultural dislocation. Based on my experiences as an immigrant from Brazil to New Zealand, it provides a narrative in metaphors and a creative orchestration of photomontage, bilinguality, and theatricised multi-page spreads. The story tells of the trials and eventual transformation of a young girl in a foreign land, where aspirations appear as costumes in an annual Carnival parade. Several theoretical frameworks significantly influenced Carnival Land. These were notions of transgression, carnality, and Carnival (Bakhtin, 1968); structure and discourse surrounding bricolage (Strauss, 1962); and writings relating to journey both as a rite of passage (Gennep, 1960; Turner, 1979); and as a process of immigration. Carnival has served as a primary metaphor, underpinning both the story and conceptual aspects of the work. Traditionally, people in Carnival parades participate in a symbolic ritual of identity change and re-negotiation of social and cultural contexts. They do this by assuming (in costume and behaviour) an alternative self. This transformative aspect of Carnival may be seen as a form of symbolical reversal, a brief moment of liminality that allows people to imagine new meanings and values in a ritual of performance. It is through this process that the performative nature of Carnival becomes a transformative process of being. The carnal (bodily) nature of Carnival enables specific linkages between the transformation of the self and the nature of immigration as a transitional physical/social/personal experience. Methodologically, the project emanates from an artistic research paradigm (Klein, 2010) that supports a heuristic approach (Douglass and Moustakas, 1985) to the discovery and refinement of ideas. The project employed autoethnography as a research design intended to facilitate the strategic accessing of personal experience and synthesised it into a fictional work. Thus, the research draws upon both tacit and explicit knowledge in developing the narrative, its structure, and stylistic treatments.
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Satya, M. Siva Reddy, and Gopalsamy N. Bharathi. "Human Lives Matter: Intelligent Transport System for Protecting Human Lives." In International Research Conference on IOT, Cloud and Data Science. Switzerland: Trans Tech Publications Ltd, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/p-xkzw14.

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The major goal of this smart helmet is to reduce the number of people who die in bike accidents. Unless the ignition system is turned off, it is mandatory to wear a helmet. For this using the Raindrop wiper mechanism technology, Alcohol sensor and also going to use light indicators which gives an automatic indication when the rider turns left or right. All these activities will be monitored and each status will be updated in the web page using IOT. This helmet can decrease the number of deaths on the road and can provide a safe ride.
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Wandell, Brian A., and David H. Brainard. "Towards cross-media color reproduction." In Applied Vision. Washington, D.C.: Optica Publishing Group, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1364/av.1989.fa2.

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Suppose that we wish to compare the color appearance of an image displayed on monitor and a reproduction of the image on a printed page. We could place the monitor and printed image side-by-side and let an observer judge the colors of each. The difficulty with this arrangement is that the ambient illumination interferes with the color appearance of the monitor image. To see the monitor image clearly, the observer would like to turn down the room lighting. But in this case, the observer will be unable to see the printed image. As the room lights are turned up, the printed image becomes visible but the monitor image becomes washed out.
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von Willingh, S., RD Knutsen, and RJ Curry. "Influence of Microstructure on the Creep Properties of Grade P22 Steel." In AM-EPRI 2019, edited by J. Shingledecker and M. Takeyama. ASM International, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.31399/asm.cp.am-epri-2019p0174.

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Abstract The creep strength and ductility of Grade P22 steel (2¼ Cr) was measured at 600°C under standard uniaxial tensile conditions at 150MPa. Test specimens were prepared by solution heat treatment at austenitization temperatures ranging from 900°C - 1200°C followed by normalization at 900°C before continuous air cooling to room temperature. In addition to specimens tested in the solution treated state, creep tests were also performed after tempering. The variable austenitization temperatures gave rise to different prior austenite grain (PAG) sizes, which in turn influenced the crystallographic packet and block boundary misorientation angle distribution. The latter parameters were measured using electron backscattered diffraction which also allowed partial reconstruction of the PAG boundaries. The time to creep failure at 600°C increased as function of PAG size up to approximately 70µm, but significantly decreased when the average prior austenite grain size measured approximately 108 µm. However, the minimum creep rate decreased even up to the largest PAG size with corresponding decrease in creep ductility. The stability of the crystallographic packet and block boundaries influences the high strength-low ductility for the large PAGs in comparison to the dominant effect of PAG boundaries at the smallest grain size where extensive recovery and recrystallization reduces creep strength.
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Sungur, Zerrin. "Women Entrepreneurship in Slow Cities of Turkey from a Sociological Perspective." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c04.00786.

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Cittàslow movement was established in Italy in 1999. The Slow City movement incorporates a philosophy and a commitment to maintain the cultural heritage and quality of life of their membership towns. A slow city aims to improve the quality of life of its citizens and its visitors. Member towns are obliged to pursue local projects protecting local cultures, contributing to a relaxed pace of life, creating conviviality and hospitality and promoting a unique sense of place and local distinctiveness. There are nine slow cities in Turkey in 2013. This study examines the women entrepreneurship in slow cities of Turkey from a sociological perspective. Slow cities offer many opportunities in the meaning of local development especially for women in Turkey. They can engage with small business, hand-crafts, and organic farming in slow cities. But training of women, certification of the quality of artisan products and awareness of the citizens of slow cities are the critical issues in the sustainable local development process. Therefore, it is possible to increase income level of women living in slow cities in Turkey and also to preserve local tastes.
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Reports on the topic "Page turner"

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Egeresi, Zoltán. More than one Year Later: an Evaluation of the Geopolitical Implications of the Second Karabakh War. Külügyi és Külgazdasági Intézet, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.47683/kkielemzesek.ke-2022.05.

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This paper describes the background and main cornerstone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and reveals the main geopolitical outcomes of the second Karabakh war. It argues that the war has caused a major geopolitical shift in the region, as it has cemented Russia’s military presence in Karabakh, thus creating a frozen conflict despite the Azerbaijani victory and territorial gains. Furthermore, it has also strengthened the position of Turkey in the region and boosted the Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance, which gathered pace throughout 2021. However, other regional actors such as Iran see this change as increasingly threatening. Various attempts to create a regional forum to mend fences and establish stability have had limited results, thus tensions remain permanent in the South Caucasus.
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Halych, Valentyna. SERHII YEFREMOV’S COOPERATION WITH THE WESTERN UKRAINIAN PRESS: MEMORIAL RECEPTION. Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, February 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.30970/vjo.2021.49.11055.

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The subject of the study is the cooperation of S. Efremov with Western Ukrainian periodicals as a page in the history of Ukrainian journalism which covers the relationship of journalists and scientists of Eastern and Western Ukraine at the turn of the XIX-XX centuries. Research methods (biographical, historical, comparative, axiological, statistical, discursive) develop the comprehensive disclosure of the article. As a result of scientific research, the origins of Ukrainocentrism in the personality of S. Efremov were clarified; his person as a public figure, journalist, publisher, literary critic is multifaceted; taking into account the specifics of the memoir genre and with the involvement of the historical context, the turning points in the destiny of the author of memoirs are interpreted, revealing cooperation with Western Ukrainian magazines and newspapers. The publications ‘Zoria’, ‘Narod’, ‘Pravda’, ‘Bukovyna’, ‘Dzvinok’, are secretly got into sub-Russian Ukraine, became for S. Efremov a spiritual basis in understanding the specifics of the national (Ukrainian) mass media, ideas of education in culture of Ukraine at the end of XIX century, its territorial integrity, and state independence. Memoirs of S. Efremov on cooperation with the iconic Galician journals ‘Notes of the Scientific Society after the name Shevchenko’ and ‘Literary-Scientific Bulletin’, testify to an important stage in the formation of the author’s worldview, the expansion of the genre boundaries of his journalism, active development as a literary critic. S. Yefremov collaborated most fruitfully and for a long time with the Literary-Scientific Bulletin, and he was impressed by the democratic position of this publication. The author’s comments reveal a long-running controversy over the publication of a review of the new edition of Kobzar and thematically related discussions around his other literary criticism, in which the talent of the demanding critic was forged. S. Efremov steadfastly defended the main principles of literary criticism: objectivity and freedom of author’s thought. The names of the allies of the Ukrainian idea L. Skochkovskyi, O. Lototskyi, O. Konyskyi, P. Zhytskyi, M. Hrushevskyi in S. Efremov’s memoirs unfold in multifaceted portrait descriptions and function as historical and cultural facts that document the pages of the author’s biography, record his activities in space and time. The results of the study give grounds to characterize S. Efremov as the first professional Ukrainian-speaking journalist.
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Pritchett, Lant, Kirsty Newman, and Jason Silberstein. Focus to Flourish: Five Actions to Accelerate Progress in Learning. Research on Improving Systems of Education (RISE), December 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.35489/bsg-rise-misc_2022/07.

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There is a severe global learning crisis. While nearly all children start school, far too many do not learn even the most foundational skills of reading, writing, and basic mathematics during the years they spend there. The urgent need to address this crisis requires no elaborate reasoning. If one starts with love for a child, a human universal, it is easy to see that in the modern world a child’s dignity, self-worth, and freedom to define their own destiny require an adequate education. An adequate education is what will then enable that child to lead a full adult life as a parent, community member, citizen, and worker in the 21st century. To enable every child to leave school with the foundational skills they need will require fundamental changes to education systems. Since 2015, the Research on Improving Systems of Education (RISE) Programme, with which we are affiliated, has been conducting research exploring how to make these changes through country research teams in seven countries (Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Vietnam) and crosscutting teams on the political economy of education reform. Drawing on the cumulative body of research on learning outcomes and systems of education in the developing world, both from the RISE Programme and other sources, we advocate for five key actions to drive system transformation. (See next page.) A message cutting across all five actions is “focus to flourish”. Education systems have been tremendously successful at achieving specific educational goals, such as expanding schooling, because that is what they committed to, that is what they measured, that is what they were aligned for, and that is what they supported. In order to achieve system transformation for learning, systems must focus on learning and then act accordingly. Only after a system prioritises learning from among myriad competing educational goals can it dedicate the tremendous energies necessary to succeed at improving learning. The research points to these five actions as a means to chart a path out of the learning crisis and toward a future that offers foundational skills to all children. The first section that follows provides background on the depth and nature of the learning crisis. The remainder of the document explains each of the five actions in turn, synthesising the research that informs each action, contrasting that action with the prevailing status quo, and describing what the action would entail in practice.
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Amzallag, Robert. The return of inflation: a banker’s perspective. CIRANO, May 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.54932/egsn1582.

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The COVID 19 pandemic followed by the invasion of Ukraine is a two-punch economic strike never seen in recent history. The pandemic not only disrupted many aspects of a tightly knit integrated world but also exposed its fragility. The devastation of Ukraine and the vast program of sanctions quickly imposed by most major developed countries have accelerated the retreat of globalization. For many decades, Central Bankers and economists considered stable prices as an almost permanent feature. Today, the consumer price index in the US hit a 40-year high at more than 8 per cent and experts were unable to predict such course of inflation. In this paper, we offer a unique perspective on these events. First, we identify a few major influential factors that have altered significantly and reliably inflation since World War II. We then turn to looking at recent events in the light of these factors to try and extrapolate a likely trend for inflation in the coming years. Despite the dire economic challenges of World War II, the economy recovered quickly, the financial imbalances rectified in only a few years and inflation was tamed. Can the same thing be achieved after the pandemic? Our analysis suggests that this is highly improbable. Deep-rooted inflationary forces are at work because of the distortions that the economic order of the last 40 years has created. These distortions, exacerbated by the dual crisis, will take long to repair. We are then looking at an unsettled economic and inflationary future. The wise course of action to avoid a chaotic future requires that the US authorities withdraw from hands-on policies and instead, pave the way for the agile private sector to take the lead and adapt the economy to the changing conditions.
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Minz, Dror, Stefan J. Green, Noa Sela, Yitzhak Hadar, Janet Jansson, and Steven Lindow. Soil and rhizosphere microbiome response to treated waste water irrigation. United States Department of Agriculture, January 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2013.7598153.bard.

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Research objectives : Identify genetic potential and community structure of soil and rhizosphere microbial community structure as affected by treated wastewater (TWW) irrigation. This objective was achieved through the examination soil and rhizosphere microbial communities of plants irrigated with fresh water (FW) and TWW. Genomic DNA extracted from soil and rhizosphere samples (Minz laboratory) was processed for DNA-based shotgun metagenome sequencing (Green laboratory). High-throughput bioinformatics was performed to compare both taxonomic and functional gene (and pathway) differences between sample types (treatment and location). Identify metabolic pathways induced or repressed by TWW irrigation. To accomplish this objective, shotgun metatranscriptome (RNA-based) sequencing was performed. Expressed genes and pathways were compared to identify significantly differentially expressed features between rhizosphere communities of plants irrigated with FW and TWW. Identify microbial gene functions and pathways affected by TWW irrigation*. To accomplish this objective, we will perform a metaproteome comparison between rhizosphere communities of plants irrigated with FW and TWW and selected soil microbial activities. Integration and evaluation of microbial community function in relation to its structure and genetic potential, and to infer the in situ physiology and function of microbial communities in soil and rhizospere under FW and TWW irrigation regimes. This objective is ongoing due to the need for extensive bioinformatics analysis. As a result of the capabilities of the new PI, we have also been characterizing the transcriptome of the plant roots as affected by the TWW irrigation and comparing the function of the plants to that of the microbiome. *This original objective was not achieved in the course of this study due to technical issues, especially the need to replace the American PIs during the project. However, the fact we were able to analyze more than one plant system as a result of the abilities of the new American PI strengthened the power of the conclusions derived from studies for the 1ˢᵗ and 2ⁿᵈ objectives. Background: As the world population grows, more urban waste is discharged to the environment, and fresh water sources are being polluted. Developing and industrial countries are increasing the use of wastewater and treated wastewater (TWW) for agriculture practice, thus turning the waste product into a valuable resource. Wastewater supplies a year- round reliable source of nutrient-rich water. Despite continuing enhancements in TWW quality, TWW irrigation can still result in unexplained and undesirable effects on crops. In part, these undesirable effects may be attributed to, among other factors, to the effects of TWW on the plant microbiome. Previous studies, including our own, have presented the TWW effect on soil microbial activity and community composition. To the best of our knowledge, however, no comprehensive study yet has been conducted on the microbial population associated BARD Report - Project 4662 Page 2 of 16 BARD Report - Project 4662 Page 3 of 16 with plant roots irrigated with TWW – a critical information gap. In this work, we characterize the effect of TWW irrigation on root-associated microbial community structure and function by using the most innovative tools available in analyzing bacterial community- a combination of microbial marker gene amplicon sequencing, microbial shotunmetagenomics (DNA-based total community and gene content characterization), microbial metatranscriptomics (RNA-based total community and gene content characterization), and plant host transcriptome response. At the core of this research, a mesocosm experiment was conducted to study and characterize the effect of TWW irrigation on tomato and lettuce plants. A focus of this study was on the plant roots, their associated microbial communities, and on the functional activities of plant root-associated microbial communities. We have found that TWW irrigation changes both the soil and root microbial community composition, and that the shift in the plant root microbiome associated with different irrigation was as significant as the changes caused by the plant host or soil type. The change in microbial community structure was accompanied by changes in the microbial community-wide functional potential (i.e., gene content of the entire microbial community, as determined through shotgun metagenome sequencing). The relative abundance of many genes was significantly different in TWW irrigated root microbiome relative to FW-irrigated root microbial communities. For example, the relative abundance of genes encoding for transporters increased in TWW-irrigated roots increased relative to FW-irrigated roots. Similarly, the relative abundance of genes linked to potassium efflux, respiratory systems and nitrogen metabolism were elevated in TWW irrigated roots when compared to FW-irrigated roots. The increased relative abundance of denitrifying genes in TWW systems relative FW systems, suggests that TWW-irrigated roots are more anaerobic compare to FW irrigated root. These gene functional data are consistent with geochemical measurements made from these systems. Specifically, the TWW irrigated soils had higher pH, total organic compound (TOC), sodium, potassium and electric conductivity values in comparison to FW soils. Thus, the root microbiome genetic functional potential can be correlated with pH, TOC and EC values and these factors must take part in the shaping the root microbiome. The expressed functions, as found by the metatranscriptome analysis, revealed many genes that increase in TWW-irrigated plant root microbial population relative to those in the FW-irrigated plants. The most substantial (and significant) were sodium-proton antiporters and Na(+)-translocatingNADH-quinoneoxidoreductase (NQR). The latter protein uses the cell respiratory machinery to harness redox force and convert the energy for efflux of sodium. As the roots and their microbiomes are exposed to the same environmental conditions, it was previously hypothesized that understanding the soil and rhizospheremicrobiome response will shed light on natural processes in these niches. This study demonstrate how newly available tools can better define complex processes and their downstream consequences, such as irrigation with water from different qualities, and to identify primary cues sensed by the plant host irrigated with TWW. From an agricultural perspective, many common practices are complicated processes with many ‘moving parts’, and are hard to characterize and predict. Multiple edaphic and microbial factors are involved, and these can react to many environmental cues. These complex systems are in turn affected by plant growth and exudation, and associated features such as irrigation, fertilization and use of pesticides. However, the combination of shotgun metagenomics, microbial shotgun metatranscriptomics, plant transcriptomics, and physical measurement of soil characteristics provides a mechanism for integrating data from highly complex agricultural systems to eventually provide for plant physiological response prediction and monitoring. BARD Report
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MacFarlane, Andrew. 2021 medical student essay prize winner - A case of grief. Society for Academic Primary Care, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.37361/medstudessay.2021.1.1.

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As a student undertaking a Longitudinal Integrated Clerkship (LIC)1 based in a GP practice in a rural community in the North of Scotland, I have been lucky to be given responsibility and my own clinic lists. Every day I conduct consultations that change my practice: the challenge of clinically applying the theory I have studied, controlling a consultation and efficiently exploring a patient's problems, empathising with and empowering them to play a part in their own care2 – and most difficult I feel – dealing with the vast amount of uncertainty that medicine, and particularly primary care, presents to both clinician and patient. I initially consulted with a lady in her 60s who attended with her husband, complaining of severe lower back pain who was very difficult to assess due to her pain level. Her husband was understandably concerned about the degree of pain she was in. After assessment and discussion with one of the GPs, we agreed some pain relief and a physio assessment in the next few days would be a practical plan. The patient had one red flag, some leg weakness and numbness, which was her ‘normal’ on account of her multiple sclerosis. At the physio assessment a few days later, the physio felt things were worse and some urgent bloods were ordered, unfortunately finding raised cancer and inflammatory markers. A CT scan of the lung found widespread cancer, a later CT of the head after some developing some acute confusion found brain metastases, and a week and a half after presenting to me, the patient sadly died in hospital. While that was all impactful enough on me, it was the follow-up appointment with the husband who attended on the last triage slot of the evening two weeks later that I found completely altered my understanding of grief and the mourning of a loved one. The husband had asked to speak to a Andrew MacFarlane Year 3 ScotGEM Medical Student 2 doctor just to talk about what had happened to his wife. The GP decided that it would be better if he came into the practice - strictly he probably should have been consulted with over the phone due to coronavirus restrictions - but he was asked what he would prefer and he opted to come in. I sat in on the consultation, I had been helping with any examinations the triage doctor needed and I recognised that this was the husband of the lady I had seen a few weeks earlier. He came in and sat down, head lowered, hands fiddling with the zip on his jacket, trying to find what to say. The GP sat, turned so that they were opposite each other with no desk between them - I was seated off to the side, an onlooker, but acknowledged by the patient with a kind nod when he entered the room. The GP asked gently, “How are you doing?” and roughly 30 seconds passed (a long time in a conversation) before the patient spoke. “I just really miss her…” he whispered with great effort, “I don’t understand how this all happened.” Over the next 45 minutes, he spoke about his wife, how much pain she had been in, the rapid deterioration he witnessed, the cancer being found, and cruelly how she had passed away after he had gone home to get some rest after being by her bedside all day in the hospital. He talked about how they had met, how much he missed her, how empty the house felt without her, and asking himself and us how he was meant to move forward with his life. He had a lot of questions for us, and for himself. Had we missed anything – had he missed anything? The GP really just listened for almost the whole consultation, speaking to him gently, reassuring him that this wasn’t his or anyone’s fault. She stated that this was an awful time for him and that what he was feeling was entirely normal and something we will all universally go through. She emphasised that while it wasn’t helpful at the moment, that things would get better over time.3 He was really glad I was there – having shared a consultation with his wife and I – he thanked me emphatically even though I felt like I hadn’t really helped at all. After some tears, frequent moments of silence and a lot of questions, he left having gotten a lot off his chest. “You just have to listen to people, be there for them as they go through things, and answer their questions as best you can” urged my GP as we discussed the case when the patient left. Almost all family caregivers contact their GP with regards to grief and this consultation really made me realise how important an aspect of my practice it will be in the future.4 It has also made me reflect on the emphasis on undergraduate teaching around ‘breaking bad news’ to patients, but nothing taught about when patients are in the process of grieving further down the line.5 The skill Andrew MacFarlane Year 3 ScotGEM Medical Student 3 required to manage a grieving patient is not one limited to general practice. Patients may grieve the loss of function from acute trauma through to chronic illness in all specialties of medicine - in addition to ‘traditional’ grief from loss of family or friends.6 There wasn’t anything ‘medical’ in the consultation, but I came away from it with a real sense of purpose as to why this career is such a privilege. We look after patients so they can spend as much quality time as they are given with their loved ones, and their loved ones are the ones we care for after they are gone. We as doctors are the constant, and we have to meet patients with compassion at their most difficult times – because it is as much a part of the job as the knowledge and the science – and it is the part of us that patients will remember long after they leave our clinic room. Word Count: 993 words References 1. ScotGEM MBChB - Subjects - University of St Andrews [Internet]. [cited 2021 Mar 27]. Available from: https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/subjects/medicine/scotgem-mbchb/ 2. Shared decision making in realistic medicine: what works - gov.scot [Internet]. [cited 2021 Mar 27]. Available from: https://www.gov.scot/publications/works-support-promote-shared-decisionmaking-synthesis-recent-evidence/pages/1/ 3. Ghesquiere AR, Patel SR, Kaplan DB, Bruce ML. Primary care providers’ bereavement care practices: Recommendations for research directions. Int J Geriatr Psychiatry. 2014 Dec;29(12):1221–9. 4. Nielsen MK, Christensen K, Neergaard MA, Bidstrup PE, Guldin M-B. Grief symptoms and primary care use: a prospective study of family caregivers. BJGP Open [Internet]. 2020 Aug 1 [cited 2021 Mar 27];4(3). Available from: https://bjgpopen.org/content/4/3/bjgpopen20X101063 5. O’Connor M, Breen LJ. General Practitioners’ experiences of bereavement care and their educational support needs: a qualitative study. BMC Medical Education. 2014 Mar 27;14(1):59. 6. Sikstrom L, Saikaly R, Ferguson G, Mosher PJ, Bonato S, Soklaridis S. Being there: A scoping review of grief support training in medical education. PLOS ONE. 2019 Nov 27;14(11):e0224325.
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Monetary Policy Report - October 2022. Banco de la República Colombia, October 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr4-2022.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary In September, headline inflation (11.4% annually) and the average of core inflation indicators (8.6% annually) continued on a rising trend, and higher increases than expected were recorded. Forecasts increased again, and inflation expectations remained above 3%. Inflationary surprises in the third quarter were significant and widespread, and they are the result of several shocks. On the one hand, international cost and price shocks, which have mainly affected goods and foods, continue to exert upwards pressure on national inflation. In addition to these external supply shocks, domestic supply shocks have also affected foods. On the other hand, the strong recovery of aggregate demand, especially for private consumption and for machinery and equipment, as well as a higher accumulated depreciation of the Colombian peso and its pass-through to domestic prices also explain the rise in inflation. Indexation also contributes, both through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and through the Producer Price Index (PPI), which continues to have a significant impact on electricity prices and, to a lesser degree, on other public utilities and rent. In comparison with July’s report, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) is higher in the forecast horizon, mainly due to exchange rate pressures, higher excess demand, and indexation at higher inflation rates, but it maintains a trend of convergence towards the target. In the case of food, a good domestic supply of perishable foods and some moderation in international processed food prices are still expected. However, the technical staff estimates higher pressures on this group’s prices from labor costs, raw material prices, and exchange rates. In terms of the CPI for regulated items, the new forecast supposes reductions in electricity prices at the end of the year, but the effects of indexation at higher inflation rates and the expected rises in fuel prices would continue to push this CPI group. Therefore, the new projection suggests that, in December, inflation would reach 11.3% and would decrease throughout 2023 and 2024, closing the year at 7.1% and 3.5%, respectively. These forecasts have a high level of uncertainty, due especially to the future behavior of international financial conditions, external price and cost shocks, the persistence of depreciation of the Colombian peso, the pace of adjustment of domestic demand, the indexation degree of nominal contracts, and the decisions that would be made regarding domestic fuel and electricity prices. Economic activity continues to surprise on the upside, and the projection of growth for 2022 rose from 6.9% to 7.9% but lowered for 2023 from 1.1% to 0.5%. Thus, excess demand is higher than estimated in the previous report, and it would diminish in 2023. Economic growth in the second quarterwas higher than estimated in July due to stronger domestic demand, mainly because of private consumption. Economic activity indicators for the third quarter suggest that the GDP would stay at a high level, above its potential, with an annual change of 6.4%, and 0.6% higher than observed in the second quarter. Nevertheless, these numbers reflect deceleration in its quarterly and annual growth. Domestic demand would show similar behavior, with a high value, higher than that of output. This can be explained partly by the strong behavior of private consumption and investment in machinery and equipment. In the third quarter, investment in construction would have continued with mediocre performance, which would still place it at levels lower than those observed before the pandemic. The trade deficit would have widened due to high imports with a stronger trend than that for exports. It is expected that, in the forecast horizon, consumption would decrease from its current high levels, partly as a consequence of tighter domestic financial conditions, lower repressed demand, higher exchange rate pressures on imported goods prices, and the deterioration of actual income due to the rise in inflation. Investment would continue to lag behind, without reaching the levels observed before the pandemic, in a context of high financing costs and high uncertainty. A lower projected behavior in domestic demand and the high levels of prices for oil and other basic goods that the country exports would be reflected in a reduction in the trade deficit. Due to all of this, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would be 7.9%, 0.5%, and 1.3%, respectively. Expected excess demand (measured via the output gap) is estimated to be higher than contemplated in the previous report; it would diminish in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024. These estimates remain subject to a high degree of uncertainty related to global political tension, a rise in international interest rates, and the effects of this rise on demand and financial conditions abroad. In the domestic context, the evolution of fiscal policy as well as future measures regarding economic policy and their possible effects on macroeconomic imbalances in the country, among others, are factors that generate uncertainty and affect risk premia, the exchange rate, investment, and the country’s economic activity. Interest rates at several of the world’s main central banks continue to rise, some at a pace higher than expected by the market. This is in response to the high levels of inflation and their inflation expectations, which continue to exceed the targets. Thus, global growth projections are still being moderated, risk premia have risen, and the dollar continues to gain strength against other main currencies. International pressures on global inflation have heightened. In the United States, core inflation has not receded, pressured by the behavior of the CPI for services and a tight labor market. Consequently, the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to increase the policy interest rate at a strong pace. This rate is expected to now reach higher levels than projected in the previous quarter. Other developed and emerging economies have also increased their policy interest rates. Thus, international financial conditions have tightened significantly, which reflects in a widespread strengthening of the dollar, increases in worldwide risk premia, and the devaluation of risky assets. Recently, these effects have been stronger in Colombia than in the majority of its peers in the region. Considering all of the aforementioned, the technical staff of the bank increased its assumption regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate, reduced the country’s external demand growth forecast, and raised the projected trajectory for the risk premium. The latter remains elevated at higher levels than its historical average, within a context of high local uncertainty and of extensive financing needs from the foreign sector and the public sector. All of this results in higher inflationary pressures associated to the depreciation of the Colombian peso. The uncertainty regarding external forecasts and its impact on the country remain elevated, given the unforeseeable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, of geopolitical tensions, and of the tightening of external financial conditions, among others. A macroeconomic context of high inflation, inflation expectations and forecasts above 3%, and a positive output gap suggests the need for contractionary monetary policy, compatible with the macroeconomic adjustment necessary to eliminate excess demand, mitigate the risk of unanchoring in inflation expectations, and guarantee convergence of inflation at the target. In comparison with the July report forecasts, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed output level that surpasses the economy’s productive capacity. Headline and core inflation have registered surprising rises, associated with the effects of domestic and external price shocks that were more persistent than anticipated, with excess demand and indexation processes in some CPI groups. The country’s risk premium and the observed and expected international interest rates increased. As a consequence of this, inflationary pressures from the exchange rate rose, and in this report, the probability of the neutral real interest rate being higher than estimated increased. In general, inflation expectations for all terms and the bank’s technical staff inflation forecast for 2023 increased again and continue to stray from 3%. All of the aforementioned elevated the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could heighten widespread indexation processes that push inflation away from the target for a longer time. In this context, it is necessary to consolidate a contractionary monetary policy that tends towards convergence of inflation at the target in the forecast horizon and towards the reduction of excess demand in order to guarantee a sustainable output level trajectory. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its September and October of 2022 meetings, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. In September, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to raise the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps), and in its October meeting, unanimously, by 100bps. Therefore, the rate is at 11.0%. Boxes 1 Food inflation: a comparison with other countries
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Monetary Policy Report - January 2023. Banco de la República, June 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr1-2023.

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1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariño
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