Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Option appraisal'

Energy production systems are essential for human progress. They fuel the technologies that underpin economic growth and are prerequisite for efficient food production, education and healthcare. On the flip side, they also incur substantial eco-social costs. Hence, finding and promoting sustainable means of energy production is a key topic within the Environmental Sciences. This thesis examines the sustainability of nuclear power, by comparing its social, economic and ecological impacts to those of wind and solar power. The assessment is performed using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA), with a Weighted Sum scoring system and a Distance-To-Target weighting scheme. The selection and the weighting of the indicators are grounded in the Planetary Boundaries framework, the Oxfam Doughnut Economics model and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, and the technologies are compared on 9 axes of evaluation; greenhouse gas emissions, land-take requirements, material throughput, non-recyclable wastes, toxic and radioactive wastes, negative health impacts, economic costs, intermittency and energy return on energy invested. The thesis finds nuclear power to be the most sustainable option according to all but three indicators, and in the unified analysis, it outcompetes wind and solar by a factor of 2 and 3 respectively. Also notable is that solar power does not excel in a single impact category; it has the highest greenhouse gas emissions, the largest land-take, and it is costly, intermittent and energy-inefficient. It is also a source of toxic pollution, the effects of which cannot yet be determined. Although wind is more competitive, it consumes vast amounts of physical resources, generates a lot of waste, and its land-take is at least 10 times higher than that of nuclear power. In addition to the MCA, the thesis investigates three perceived threats that are often raised in criticisms of nuclear power; the risk of nuclear fuel depletion, the risk of nuclear weapons proliferation and the risk of catastrophic nuclear accidents. The results show that many popular arguments against the technology are loosely aligned with reality, and the thesis as a whole presents a challenge to the notion that nuclear power is a dangerous and unsustainable energy source.

This is a doctoral dissertation presented to the FacultyBoard of the Royal Institute of Technology. The dissertationconsists of three self-contained essays on real option pricing.Essay I, written in Swedish, was presented at seminar andaccepted as fulfilling the requirement for a Licentiate Degreein Engineering thesis in 1995. Essay I: This essay studies the option to develop vacantland when the landowner simultaneously determines the optimaldensity and timing of a development. Williams (1991) andCapozza and Li (1994) have recently studied the landdevelopment decision from a realoptions perspective. Bothpapers assume that the production technology is of the commonlyused Cobb-Douglas type, but they use different assumptionsabout uncertainty over future rents and construction costs. Ananalysis of these models and their limitations is carried outand as a result valuation models based on other productiontechnologies than the Cobb-Douglas technology are derived. Essay II: McDonald and Siegel (1996) show that when thebenefit from an investment and the investment cost are assumedto follow correlated geometric Brownian motions, the optimalinvestment policy is given by a simple rule: Invest the firsttime the benefit-cost ratio reaches a certain level. In thisessay, which models the decision to change the use ofaproperty, the investment rule is found to be more complicated.Optimal redevelopment will take place for differentbenefit-cost ratios depending on the relative sizes of thevalue of the property in the different uses and the cost ofchanging the use. Also, for a given current benefit-cost ratiothe value of the option to change use will vary significantlydepending on the relative sizes of the state variables. Essay III: The relationship between the option to choose thecapacity of a real estate development and deliberateoverbuilding is studied in a simple model of investment underuncertainty. The model provides an intuitive measure ofdeliberate overbuilding: the difference between the number ofrental units the owner of an undeveloped site optimally choosesto produce and the number of units expected to be leased at thetime of the building's completion. Numerical simulations withreasonable parameter values show that in some economicenvironments, the optimal production strategy can be to producemore units than are expected to be leased at completion of thedevelopment.

QC 20100611

Deliberate large-scale interventions in the Earth’s climate system, known collectively as climate ‘geoengineering’, have been proposed in order to moderate anthropogenic climate change. A host of normative rationales for geoengineering has led to a growing number of appraisals to evaluate the different proposals and provide decision support. This thesis critically reviews current appraisals of geoengineering before developing and executing its own appraisal methodology in response to their limitations. These limitations concern: (1) the appraisal of geoengineering proposals in ‘contextual isolation’ of alternative options for tackling climate change; (2) inadequate methodological responses to the ‘post-normal’ scientific context in which climate change and geoengineering resides; and (3) a premature ‘closing down’ upon particular geoengineering proposals, principally stratospheric aerosol injection, through the exertion of power via framings. This thesis exhibits the findings of an ‘upstream’ participatory appraisal of geoengineering called Deliberative Mapping; an innovative analytic-deliberative methodology designed to ‘open up’ appraisal inputs and outputs to a broader diversity of framings, knowledges and future pathways. A diversity of international experts and stakeholders from across academia, civil society, industry and government, and of sociodemographically representative citizens from Norfolk (UK), were engaged using a combination of analytic Multi-Criteria Mapping specialist interviews and deliberative citizens’ panels, as well as a joint specialists-citizens workshop. The results present a radically different view to other appraisals of geoengineering, where: (1) geoengineering proposals are most often outperformed by mitigation options, with stratospheric aerosol injection ranking particularly poorly; (2) a greater diversity of perspectives and assessment criteria spanning the natural, applied and social sciences reveals considerable uncertainties in all areas of research and decision making; and (3) four propositions for governance emerge that advance sociotechnical foresight, technology control and public consent, the anticipation and alleviation of impacts, a demonstration of robustness, and ultimately, the responsible innovation of geoengineering.

PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
O Brasil está atraindo muita atenção do mundo devido à produção de veículos flex introduzidos pela sua indústria automobilística desde 2003. Hoje a frota de veículos flex no Brasil é a maior do mundo, com 23 milhões de unidades (ANFAVEA , 2015), seguida dos Estados Unidos com 11 milhões (EIA, 2015), Canadá com um milhão (TPSGC, 2015), e a Europa, liderada pela Suécia, com 229.400 unidades (BAFF, 2015). Há mais de 80 modelos flexíveis de carros e caminhões disponíveis no mercado brasileiro, fabricados por 14 grandes montadoras. Os veículos flex no Brasil são otimizados para funcionar com qualquer mistura de gasolina e até 100 porcento de etanol hidratado. A flexibilidade na escolha do combustível gera uma vantagem comparativa para este tipo de veículo. Diferentemente a outros trabalhos que já trataram do assunto, este estudo busca valorar esta vantagem para as cinco regiões geográficas brasileiras: Norte, Nordeste, Centro-Oeste, Sudeste e Sul, determinando o valor desta flexibilidade para cada região. Para esse propósito, os preços dos combustíveis foram considerados como variáveis estocásticas seguindo um Movimento de Reversão à Média Aritmético. A simulação de Monte Carlo foi utilizada para prever os preços, e a Teoria de Opções Reais e um algoritmo Fuzzy, que aplica números fuzzy triangulares (NFT), foi usado para valorar a flexibilidade embutida. Desde que os NFT oferecem um bom desempenho e eficiência computacional e propiciam uma modelagem mais realista do problema, foram utilizados para modelar as taxas de consumo de combustível e a quilometragem percorrida pelos veículos estudados. Os resultados indicam que a opção de flexibilidade adiciona valor para os proprietários, sendo mais significativa nas regiões Sudeste, Centro-Oeste e Sul.
Brazil was drawing a lot of world attention at the time due to the production of flex-fuel vehicles introduced by its own automobile industries since 2003. Today the fleet of flexible-fuel vehicles in Brazil are the largest in the world with 23 million vehicles (ANFAVEA, 2015), following the United States with 11 million units (EIA, 2015), Canada with one million units (TPSGC , 2015), and Europe, led by Sweden with 229,400 units (BAFF, 2015). There are over 80 flex car and truck models available in Brazilian manufactured market by 14 major automakers. Brazilian flexible-fuel vehicles are optimized to run on any mix of gasoline and up to 100 percent hydrous ethanol. The flexibility in the choice of fuel gives a comparative advantage to this vehicle type. Different to other works done in this subject, this study seeks to value this advantage for five Brazilian geographic regions: Northern, Northeastern, Central-Western, Southeastern and Southern, determining the value of this flexibility for each region. For this purpose, fuel prices were considered as stochastic variables following a mean reversion stochastic process. Monte Carlo simulation has been utilized to predict the prices, and real options theory and a fuzzy algorithm applying triangular fuzzy Numbers (TFN) to value embedded flexibility. Since TFN offer good performance and computational efficiency and provide a more realistic modeling of the problem, they were used to model the fuel consumption rates and the distance traveled by vehicles. The results indicate that the option of flexibility adds more significant value to the owners being in Southeastern, Central-Western, and Southern regions.

Firms have been found to use different methods when evaluating their capital investments, and may also be using multiple appraisal methods. Few explanations have been provided to adequately account for the differences in the firms' choice of appraisal techniques. The purpose of this research is to empirically investigate and to explain the existing capital budgeting practice by Malaysian manufacturing firms, particularly when faced with real options situations and advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) investments, and to understand the factors that contribute to the selection of the appraisal techniques. The main motivation and focus is provided by the literature on options theoty. Given previous evidence of the general non-usage of options theory, the research will consider whether the theoretical reasons for the use and non-use of options theory apply to the selection of capital investment appraisal techniques in general. Two theoretical frameworks, contingency theoty and technology acceptance model (TAM), were adapted for this purpose. Using postal questionnaires, responses from eighty-eight firms were found usable. It was discovered that few firms consider real options theory when evaluating options situations. Thus, the complementary hypotheses based on the use of sophisticated capital investment appraisal techniques were used, instead of the real options usage. Interviews were also conducted to supplement the findings from the survey. Tests on the validity and reliability were conducted. The contingent variables largely factored in an acceptable way except for strategy, but technology acceptance modelling (TAM) was rejected as an overall theory because of its poor results of factor analysis. However, the TAM variables were used in the analysis as individual variables since their reliability does not appear to be a problem. The results indicated that majority of the Malaysian firms both prefer and use the techniques of payback, personal judgement, internal rate of return and net present value. The findings also showed that these techniques were also used when faced with options situation and in the evaluation of AMT investments. Multiple regression analysis was carried out on the contingent variables. As the firms were known to use more than one technique in their investment selection process, cluster analysis was used t9 group firms that share usage patterns, and were analysed based on these groupings. The results from the analysis showed that there was little evidence of the contingency factors affecting the firms' usage of appraisal techniques. However, the analysis of individual TAM variables revealed some interesting findings. These cluster groups are found to be significantly different for the usefulness and satisfaction gained from using the techniques. In summary; this study has reported the techniques frequently used by a majority of the Malaysian manufacturing firms, and actions taken when faced with options situation and AMT investment decisions. It showed that there was some consideration and barriers in improving their capital investment appraisal practice.

The public sector often invests in large projects in different sectors, such as education, health care and infrastructure. It can be argued that investment appraisal process in these projects should differ from conventional approaches due to the complex interests the public sector holds, which often implies that several aspects need to be considered. Conventional techniques may not suffice and therefore this thesis aims to investigate the applicability of real options analysis and multi-criteria analysis in a combined approach. The study is conducted in the form of a case study at publicly owned Sundsvalls Logistikpark, where options in the form of the utilization of development areas and the non-monetary aspect reduction of carbon dioxide are included in the appraisal. The model developed compares two alternative strategies where one is based upon conventional usage of the area and the other represents the environmentally friendly alternative. The results show that including the value of flexibility in the appraisal significantly raises the initial valuation, whereas the comparison of the strategies show that the results either details which strategy is preferred, if input to both strategies are available, or where the threshold for indifference lies. It is concluded that this model is applicable in terms of its ability to capture the value of flexibility and inclusion of several aspects of the decision problem. However, it is also concluded that the numerous simplifications made may lead to unreliability in the results, and the process of obtaining accurate input may time-consuming, depending on the case. The usability of the model is high in terms of its potential, but lower in terms of the knowledge-based threshold required of the user.

While there has been extensive research on the use of financial appraisal techniques (Pay back, Return on Capital Employed, Internal Rate of Return and Net Present Value) in the Investment Appraisal Process (lAP), little research has been conducted on the role of the Real Options Approach (ROA) and Managerial Judgement (MJ) in the IAP. In an ideal world, prior to making Strategic Investment Decisions (SIDs), a detailed analysis of the benefits generated by the investments would be conducted. This would cover financial and nonfinancial benefits. In practice, however, many investments are undertaken on the basis of financial returns with little or no analysis of the growth options embedded in the proposed investments. The exploitation of these options contributes to the enhancement of the business strategy as financial returns do. Essential to considering these options in the IAP is the deployment ofMJ inthe lAP. This thesis aims to make a sound contribution to the development of the emerging literature on capital budgeting. First, it provides a critical review of the existing investment appraisal literature. Second, it investigates whether or not British Automotive Components Manufacturers (BACMs) deploy the ROA and MJ in the lAP in order to accommodate the growth options. And fmally, it presents an alternative perspective of the IAP by the development of a conceptual framework that integrates the ROA & MJ into the lAP, while taking account ofproject risk and business strategy. This research draws on a 73-firm survey of finance directors in this industry enhanced by fieldwork (11 interviews) to set out the relative importance of the strategic approach (ROA informed by MJ) and financial analysis when making the SIDs. The findings from the survey show similar results to earlier studies in relation to the popularity of PB and the use of more than one financial technique in the lAP. However, in contrast to previous studies, DCF techniques seem to be less popular and higher usage of ROCE is evident, and no relationship is found between company size and the range and type of techniques used in the lAP. The main thrust of the findings of the statistical analysis is the absence of the formal adoption of the ROA in the IAP. However, the impact of the growth options regarding the deployment of MJ in the lAP appeared to be evident. The analysis shows that MJ is considered when assessing both investments with growth options and risky projects. The fieldwork provides insights into the context of the lAP and the factors that influence the deployment of the ROA and MJ in the lAP. Conclusions are drawn regarding the interrelationships between financial analysis and the ROA and MJ in the lAP. The integration of the ROA and MJ into the lAP appears to involve moving the focus of attention in the lAP away from financial analysis and a short-term perspective towards a more strategic perspective. More importantly, it contributes to bridging the gap between risk management and strategic analysis.

A key issue for sustainability planning is how to integrate economic, social and environmental concerns in the process of evaluating possible management actions. This thesis is particularly concerned with evaluating natural resource management actions. Integrated evaluation tools may assist in weighing up multi-dimensional pros and cons of each management action. These tools aid decision making in two main ways; helping a decision maker to clarify his or her thoughts and suggesting preferable management options. Many integrated evaluation tools produce a ranking of options, from most to least preferred, in order to guide the choice of a management option. They achieve this by integrating impact assessment data, on how well management options perform economically, socially and environmentally, with a decision maker’s value judgements. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods for example, often ask the user to specify what weight of importance each impact category should have in the appraisal of management options. If the impact data is in time series, a decision maker may be asked to consider how important future impacts are in comparison to short term impacts. The economic method of discounting future impacts is regularly utilised to aggregate a time-series of impact data. This thesis looks beyond weighting and discounting, and explores tools which may better formalise value judgements about: balancing economic, social and environmental outcomes and; intergenerational equity. Such tools may be more effective in helping a decision maker to clarify his or her thoughts and in suggesting appropriate courses of action. A water resource case study is utilised to illustrate some of the alternatives identified. A major contribution of this thesis is a new integrated evaluation method referred to as Target Ordering. The Target Ordering method was developed in order to better identify which performance outcomes are most important to stakeholders and ensure user control of tradeoffs between impact categories, while retaining simplicity. This method is based on value judgements about how important target outcomes are, rather than how important the impact categories themselves are. That is, it is an alternative to weighting methods. The Target Ordering method is also extended to allow an aggregation of data across multiple time frames. That is, to provide an alternative to discounting. There seems to be a dearth of studies comparing how effective integrated evaluation tools are for helping users to think through and articulate their own preferences and to learn about the preferences of others. This thesis draws on existing research and presents new research, such that the effectiveness of weighting and non-weighting methods on these dimensions may be examined. Two experiments were conducted where a small number of water industry professionals utilised weighting and non-weighting tools to rank a large number of water management options. The non-weighting methods include Target Ordering and a graphical tool for facilitating an intuitive evaluation of management options. These tools are respectively classified as aspirational and holistic evaluation methods. Feedback was obtained from the participants through both surveys and interviews. The survey results indicate that the Target Ordering tool was significantly more useful than weighting methods for helping participants to articulate and apply their values to the problem. In general the Target Ordering tool was easier to utilise and was said to be more intuitive by some participants. The graphical tool was found to outperform a simple weighting method in facilitating users to think through and articulate their value judgements. No differences in usefulness of the graphical method and the Target Ordering method were found. Further experimental research is needed to compare how effective weighting, aspirational and holistic methods are in facilitating learning and communication of preferences in the decision making process.
PhD Doctorate

A key issue for sustainability planning is how to integrate economic, social and environmental concerns in the process of evaluating possible management actions. This thesis is particularly concerned with evaluating natural resource management actions. Integrated evaluation tools may assist in weighing up multi-dimensional pros and cons of each management action. These tools aid decision making in two main ways; helping a decision maker to clarify his or her thoughts and suggesting preferable management options. Many integrated evaluation tools produce a ranking of options, from most to least preferred, in order to guide the choice of a management option. They achieve this by integrating impact assessment data, on how well management options perform economically, socially and environmentally, with a decision maker’s value judgements. Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods for example, often ask the user to specify what weight of importance each impact category should have in the appraisal of management options. If the impact data is in time series, a decision maker may be asked to consider how important future impacts are in comparison to short term impacts. The economic method of discounting future impacts is regularly utilised to aggregate a time-series of impact data. This thesis looks beyond weighting and discounting, and explores tools which may better formalise value judgements about: balancing economic, social and environmental outcomes and; intergenerational equity. Such tools may be more effective in helping a decision maker to clarify his or her thoughts and in suggesting appropriate courses of action. A water resource case study is utilised to illustrate some of the alternatives identified. A major contribution of this thesis is a new integrated evaluation method referred to as Target Ordering. The Target Ordering method was developed in order to better identify which performance outcomes are most important to stakeholders and ensure user control of tradeoffs between impact categories, while retaining simplicity. This method is based on value judgements about how important target outcomes are, rather than how important the impact categories themselves are. That is, it is an alternative to weighting methods. The Target Ordering method is also extended to allow an aggregation of data across multiple time frames. That is, to provide an alternative to discounting. There seems to be a dearth of studies comparing how effective integrated evaluation tools are for helping users to think through and articulate their own preferences and to learn about the preferences of others. This thesis draws on existing research and presents new research, such that the effectiveness of weighting and non-weighting methods on these dimensions may be examined. Two experiments were conducted where a small number of water industry professionals utilised weighting and non-weighting tools to rank a large number of water management options. The non-weighting methods include Target Ordering and a graphical tool for facilitating an intuitive evaluation of management options. These tools are respectively classified as aspirational and holistic evaluation methods. Feedback was obtained from the participants through both surveys and interviews. The survey results indicate that the Target Ordering tool was significantly more useful than weighting methods for helping participants to articulate and apply their values to the problem. In general the Target Ordering tool was easier to utilise and was said to be more intuitive by some participants. The graphical tool was found to outperform a simple weighting method in facilitating users to think through and articulate their value judgements. No differences in usefulness of the graphical method and the Target Ordering method were found. Further experimental research is needed to compare how effective weighting, aspirational and holistic methods are in facilitating learning and communication of preferences in the decision making process.
PhD Doctorate

碩士
國立臺灣科技大學
營建工程系
97
In Tapei, land exploiters usually can’t develop immediately after purchasing land, which is the general popular name “raise land”. In the traditional way, estimating the land value is often carried on appraisal of project by method of Cash Flow Approach, but it has not been able to consider to the elastic effect of the time, therefore, it is not easy to be able to appraise the actual value of the project appropriately. This research will adopt a concept of the appraisal pattern of Black-Scholes (the i.e. B-S pattern), which is the land investment appraisal pattern by the real option construction; the real option is equal to type of American buy power without deadline, The land exploiters may use the characteristic of its waiting or the develop land immediately to rely on the booming qualities to decide time of development.This research will discuss the real value of undeveloped land, the suitable development time, the option value and the question of currency inflation. Furthermore, according to developing a land investment appraisal pattern, which can be discussed the correlation between currency inflation and land development, and the land is postponed development to bring the increase of option value.

碩士
國立成功大學
都市計劃學系
102
Empirical financial analysis for Taiwan’s urban renewal program often applies multiple NPV and IRR to assess the feasibility of the project. But the perceived real estate values from home owners are usually higher than the perceived values from developers. In this study we estimate hedonic housing price function with data from Actual Selling Price Login System to estimate real estate values. We then apply Black ＆ Scholes option pricing model to determine the real option values during the project appraisal period. Factors affecting the option price of the renewal project include exiting real estate values, risk-free discount rate, period for getting approval and construction, costs for demolition and tenants’ rental subsidy, expecting selling prices, and fluctuation rate of real estate prices in the housing market. This approach could provide guidance for the decision making on urban renewal projects from household owner’s and developer’s perspective. If the real option value is higher than the costs associated with the appraisal period, then developers should hold the opportunity to proceed with the project, and vice versa.

Thesis
The Companies Bill B61-2008 proposes to introduce appraisal rights into South African law. Appraisal entitles a shareholder to demand payment from the corporate issuer of his shares at a fair cash value in certain instances where major transactions which would change the company's direction have been proposed. It allows a cash exit rather than being coerced into supporting the majority's decision. Arriving at a fair share value is a challenge to appraisal. Presently, under the Personal action, a shareholder who opines that the company's act or omission is unfairly prejudicial or that its affairs are conducted in an unfairly prejudicial manner, may apply to court for an appropriate order. It enables the minority to challenge the majority's decision. Both remedies will be available to dissenting shareholders under the new dispensation and a shareholder must decide which remedy best suits his purposes. Appraisal should be seen as a last resort.
Law
LL.M. (Corporate Law)

碩士
國立臺北大學
自然資源與環境管理研究所在職專班
95
The principal objectives of this research are to investigate the possibility of growing alternative crops on polluted farmlands, and to study the appropriateness of expending the Soil and Groundwater Remediation Fund on remedying polluted farmlands. This research proposes a strategy of remedying polluted farmlands and growing alternative crops on fallow farmlands to diversify the follow-up handling methods simultaneously. Although helping farmers to grow alternative crops on polluted farmlands requires less expenditure paid by the Government, it slowly reduces the concentrations of heavy metals. Unless the time limit requirement for completing pollution remediation is removed, growing alternative crops on polluted farmlands will not be as an attractive solution as cleaning up the lands by other more efficient but more expensive technologies. One eclectic strategy is to start with reducing high concentrations of pollutants of farmlands to predetermined values by other more efficient technologies, and then switching to grow alternative crops on the land. Based on the current agricultural policy of the Government, this research proposes four strategies to clean up polluted farmlands. These include remedying contamination, growing energy-producing crops, growing landscaping plants, and planting the flat land with trees to form a forest. Additionally, in order to smoothly implement the four strategies, this research proposes an “Autonomic Rules of Growing Alternative Crops on Restrictive Farmlands.” This research concludes that applying the Soil and Groundwater Remediation Fund on investigating sites of polluted manufacturing plants is more appropriate than on remedying polluted farmlands. Additionally, if the land value is not a critical factor influencing decision, growing alternative crops on polluted farmlands can be a feasible and more economical strategy of cleanup the land.

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial
Wrong investment decisions today can lead to situations in the future that will be unsustainable and lead eventually to the bankruptcy of enterprises. Therefore, good financial management combined with good capital investment decisionmaking are critical to the survival and long-term success of the firms. Traditionally, the discounted cash flow (DCF) methods (e.g. NPV – Net Present Value and IRR – Internal Rate of Return) have been worldwide used to evaluate project investments. However, given that today investments are characterized by high risks and uncertainty, DCF methodologies might be inadequate to deal with these issues. Some authors argue that only the techniques that can appropriately address the problem of uncertainty should be applied. In this paper, the major differences between the traditional methods and Real Options Theory (ROT) were analysed, in the context of an investment in the energy sector. Energy shortage, global warming, and climate change led to an increase in the use of alternative sources of energy, with renewable energy sources (RES) playing a fundamental role in this new energetic paradigm. However, the investment costs often constitute a major barrier to their spread use. Moreover, the overall benefits of renewable energy technologies are often not well understood and consequently they are often evaluated to be not as cost effective as traditional technologies. The way investors evaluate their investments call now for the use of more sophisticated evaluation techniques. Real Options approach can deal with these issues and, as so, began to be considered and applied for the energy sector decision aid. A large set of applications in almost all fields of energy decision making, from electricity generation, technologies appraisal and to policy evaluation is available in the literature. However the use of this technique in the field of RES is still limited and worth to be analysed. This paper addresses this issue. A review of the current state of the art in the application of Real Options approach to investments in non-renewable energy sources and RES is presented, giving perspectives for further research in this field. Also, an application of the ROT to a photovoltaic investment with the study of three different cases is presented, providing some interest conclusions about the major differences in evaluating this technology under ROT and the traditional project evaluation techniques.
Más decisões de investimento hoje podem levar a situações insustentáveis no futuro e que, eventualmente poderão levar à falência de empresas. Portanto, uma boa gestão financeira combinada com uma correcta tomada de decisão de investimento são fundamentais para a sobrevivência e sucesso a longo prazo das empresas. Tradicionalmente, métodos baseados nos Fluxos de Caixa Actualizados (Cash flows) (e.g. VAL – Valor Actual Líquido e TIR – Taxa Interna de Rentabilidade) têm sido utilizados para avaliar os projectos de investimento. Porém, os investimentos de hoje são caracterizados por elevados níveis de risco e incerteza, pelo que metodologias como o VAL são inadequadas para lidar completamente com essas questões. Alguns autores argumentam que somente as técnicas que conseguem abordar adequadamente o problema da incerteza devem ser aplicadas. Neste trabalho, as principais diferenças entre os métodos tradicionais e a Teoria das Opções Reais (TOR) foram analisadas, no contexto de um investimento no sector da energia. A escassez de energia, aquecimento global e alterações climáticas levaram a um aumento no uso de fontes alternativas de energia, com as fontes de energia renováveis a desempenharem um papel fundamental neste novo paradigma energético. No entanto, os custos de investimento constituem, muitas vezes, um grande obstáculo ao seu uso e à sua difusão. Para além disso, os benefícios globais das tecnologias de energias renováveis são frequentemente mal compreendidos e por isso estas são frequentemente avaliadas como sendo menos rentáveis do que as tecnologias tradicionais. A forma como os investidores avaliam o potencial dos seus investimentos parece indicar a necessidade do uso de técnicas de avaliação mais sofisticadas. A Teoria das Opções Reais consegue lidar com estas questões e, como tal, começou a ser aplicada no apoio à tomada de decisão no sector energético. Um grande conjunto de aplicações em quase todos os domínios da tomada de decisão neste sector, desde a avaliação de tecnologias de geração de electricidade até à avaliação das políticas, pode ser encontrado na literatura. No entanto, o uso desta técnica no domínio da avaliação de projectos de investimento em energias renováveis é ainda limitado e vale a pena ser analisado. Este trabalho aborda esta questão. Assim, apresenta-se uma revisão do estado da arte na aplicação da metodologia das opções reais para investimentos em fontes de energia não renovável e renovável, sugerindo-se perspectivas para futuras pesquisas neste campo. Além disso, ilustra-se a aplicação da teoria das Opções Reais a um investimento num parque fotovoltaico, fornecendo algumas conclusões interessantes sobre as principais diferenças entre a avaliação desta tecnologia pela teoria das Opões Reais e pelas técnicas tradicionais de avaliação de projectos de investimento.
This work was financed by: the QREN – Operational Programme for Competitiveness Factors – the European Union – European Regional Development Fund and National Funds - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under Project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-011377

Sub-Saharan Africa bears 70% of the global HIV burden with KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) identified as the epicenter of this pandemic. HIV related nephropathy (HIVRN) exceeds any other causes of kidney diseases responsible for end stage renal disease, and has been increasingly recognized as a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. There is nonetheless a general lack of surveillance and reporting for HIVRN exists in this geographical region. Consequentially, the aim of this study was to outline the histopathogical spectrum of HIVRN within KZN. Moreover, from a pathology standpoint, it is important to address whether HIVRN was a direct consequence of viral infection of the renal parenchyma or is it a secondary consequence of systemic infection. Additionally, an evaluation of the efficacy of Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Therapy (HAART) in combination with angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE-I) was performed via a genetic appraisal of localized replication of HIV-1 in the kidney, ultrastructural review and immunocytochemical expression of a podocyte maturity and proliferation marker pre and post-HAART. Blood and renal biopsies were obtained from 30 children with HIV related nephropathy pre- HAART, followed-up clinically for a period of 1 year. This cohort formed the post-HAART group. Clinical and demographic data were collated and histopathology, RT-PCR, sequencing, immunocytochemistry and transmission electron microscopy was performed. The commonest histopathological form of HIVRN in children (n = 30) in KZN was classical focal segmental glomerular sclerosis (FSGS) presented in 13(43.33%); mesangial hypercellularity 10(30%); mesangial, HIV associated nephropathy 3(11%) and minimal change disease 2(6.67%). Post-HAART (n = 9) the predominant pathology was mesangial hypercellularity 5(55.56%); FSGS 3(33.33%) and sclerosing glomerulopathy 1(11.11%). This study also provides data on the efficacy of HAART combined with ACE-I. The immunostaining pattern of synaptopodin, Ki67 and p24 within the glomerulus expressed as a mean field area percentage was significantly downregulated in the pre-HAART compared to the post-HAART group respectively (1.14 vs. 4.47%, p = 0.0068; 1.01 vs.4.68, p < 0.001; 4.5% vs 1.4%, p = 0.0035). The ultrastructural assessment of all biopsies conformed to their pathological appraisal however, features consistent with viral insult were observed. Latent HIV reservoirs were observed within the podocyte cytoplasm but was absent in mesangial or endothelial cells. Real-Time polymerase chain reaction assays provided evidence of HIV-1 within the kidney. Sequence analysis of the C2-C5 region of HIV-1 env revealed viral diversity between renal tissue to blood. In contrast to a collapsing type of FSGS that occurs in adults, the spectrum of paediatric nephropathy in treatment-naive children within KwaZulu-Natal was FSGS with mesangial hypercellularity. Additionally, our study demonstrates podocyte phenotype dysregulation pre- HAART and reconstitution post therapy. Evidence of ultrastructural viral reservoirs within epithelial cells is supported by a genetic appraisal confirming the ubiquitous presence of HIV DNA in renal tissue. Moreover, sequence analysis showed viral evolution and compartmentalization between renal viral reservoirs to blood. Finally, the interplay of viral genes and host response, influenced by genetic background, may contribute to the variable manifestations of HIV-1 infection in the kidney in our paediatric population.
Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2012.