Journal articles on the topic 'Oil-dependent and non-oil-dependent countries'
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1
DENİZ, Pınar. "OIL PRICES AND RENEWABLE ENERGY: OIL DEPENDENT COUNTRIES." Journal of Research in Economics 3, no. 2 (October 27, 2019): 139–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.35333/jore.2019.52.
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Hazarika, Indrani. "An Analytical Study on the Impact of Recent Oil Price Plunge on Highly Oil Dependent Economies and Oil Exporting Countries." International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance 7, no. 5 (October 2016): 202–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.18178/ijtef.2016.7.5.523.
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Czech, Katarzyna. "AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE OF OIL-DEPENDENT ECONOMIES." Annals of the Polish Association of Agricultural and Agribusiness Economists XX, no. 6 (December 10, 2018): 35–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0012.7729.
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The aim of the paper is to present the agricultural performance of oil-dependent economies. Based on oil rents as a share of GDP ratio, twenty of the most oil-dependent countries are selected. It is shown that food exports constitute a tiny part of total merchandise exports. It concerns all selected countries apart from Ecuador and Norway. Moreover, agriculture value added is a minor component of GDP for the majority of selected oil-dependent economies. Chad and Nigeria are distinguished by the highest agricultural value added to GDP ratio. Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, on the other hand, are among countries in which the ratio is lower than 1%. Many oil-dependent countries have neglected the rural economy since oil discovery. The agricultural sector is largely ignored in favour of the oil and gas industry. However, it should be emphasized that although agriculture constitutes only a minor share of GDP, in many oil-dependent developing countries, the agricultural sector still provides the main livelihood for most people.
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Kudrin, A. "Stabilization Fund: Foreign and Russian Experience." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 2 (February 20, 2006): 28–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2006-2-28-45.
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The article substantiates the necessity of non-renewable resources funds creation in oil exporting countries. It also provides the analysis of results and specific features of fiscal policy as well as of oil export windfall revenues allocation in countries dependent on fluctuations of non-renewables prices. The article contains Russia’s Stabilization Fund effectiveness assessment and provides guidelines for further improvement of its mechanism.
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Kaplan, Fatih, and Ali Rıza Aktaş. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Exchange Rate in Oil Dependent Countries." Business and Economics Research Journal 7, no. 2 (April 21, 2016): 103. http://dx.doi.org/10.20409/berj.2016217498.
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Ghosh, T. P. "Oil Dependency of GCC Stock Markets: Co-integration of GCC Stock Market Indices and Oil Price." International Journal of Business and Management 12, no. 1 (December 28, 2016): 188. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v12n1p188.
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Oil dependent economies of GCC countries had passed through various cycles of boom and trough of oil price. In the aftermath of the economic recession of 2008 and oil price, the GCC countries have been pursuing plans for diversifying to non-oil revenues. The oil of 2014-16 raised the issue of stock market cointegration to oil price movement in the background of non-oil diversification.This research study analyzes long term cointegration of oil price and GCC stock indices, and also cointegration among the GCC stock indices per se in an attempt to investigate if there is any early sign of disintegration of GCC stock markets from oil price cyclicality. The study period is linked to cyclicality of oil price: the first period comprising of Jan 2006- Dec. 2011 that covers oil price cycle during economic recession of 2008, and the second period comprising of Jan 2012 –September 2016 which covers the post-economic recession oil price cycle. The null hypotheses is that oil price and stock market indices are co-integrated.Based on Johansen Cointegration test on Box Cox transformed data of oil price and seven stock market indices of GCC countries, it is found that oil price and GCC stock markets are co-integrated. Analysis using Augmented Dickey- Fuller test and Phillips –Perron test shows that data series are all I (1). This study establishes that efforts to reduce oil dependency in GCC countries is yet to result in decoupling of financial markets from oil price cyclicality. This study also establishes that GCC stock markets per se are co-integrated but factors of cointegration beyond oil price are not explored.
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Zou, Gao Lu. "Evidence of the Crude Oil Use Efficiency for the Four BRIC Countries: A Panel Analysis." Advanced Materials Research 1030-1032 (September 2014): 2561–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1030-1032.2561.
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Crude Oil consumption for every unit of GDP output is a significant indicator for oil use efficiency. This study aims to investigate the long-run relationship between energy consumption efficiency across the four BRIC countries. We tested for panel unit root and panel cointegration. Oil consumption was of low efficiency in India. The cointegration suggests the common inefficiency of oil use. We may find out some common or similar determinants improving the oil use efficiency in the rapidly growing but heavy oil import-dependent countries.
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Czech, Katarzyna, and Ibrahim Niftiyev. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Oil-Dependent Countries’ Currencies: The Case of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 9 (September 9, 2021): 431. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14090431.
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The paper aims to assess the relationship between Azerbaijani and Kazakhstani exchange rates and crude oil prices volatility. The study applies the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The paper concentrates on Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, the post-Soviet countries considered as some of the most oil-dependent countries in the Caspian Sea region. The impulse response functions suggest that the rise of crude oil prices is associated with the exchange rates decrease and thus with an Azerbaijani manat and Kazakhstani tenge appreciation against the U.S. dollar. Moreover, the results suggest that an oil price increase leads to the rise of Azerbaijani international reserves. However, the results are insignificant for the Kazakhstani foreign exchange reserves. Additionally, the study reveals a negative and significant relationship between crude oil prices and USD/KZT in both pre-crisis and the COVID-19 crisis periods. We reveal that the correlation has been stronger during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the relationship is not significant in the case of the Azerbaijani manat. The USD/AZN exchange rate has been stable since 2017, and the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has not caused a change in the exchange rate and a weakening of the Azerbaijani currency, despite significant drops in crude oil prices.
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Keikha, Alireza, Ahmadali Keikha, and Mohsen Mehrara. "Institutional Quality, Economic Growth and Fluctuations of Oil Prices in Oil Dependent Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach." Modern Economy 03, no. 02 (2012): 218–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/me.2012.32030.
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Edwards, Zophia. "Boon or bane: Examining divergent development outcomes among oil- and mineral-dependent countries in the Global South." International Journal of Comparative Sociology 58, no. 4 (July 18, 2017): 304–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0020715217719313.
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Under neoliberal conditions that privilege foreign investors and call for the retreat of the state, some oil- and mineral-dependent countries in the Global South outperform others. To investigate what accounts for this variation in economic development among these countries, this study tests hypotheses derived from resource curse and dependency/world systems literatures using a dataset of 36 oil- and mineral-dependent countries in the Global South from 1984 through 2010 and panel methods of data analysis. The results show that state capacity and debt dependence shape uneven development outcomes among these countries. The implications for resource curse and dependency/world systems theories are discussed.
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Gukasyan, G. L. "Macroeconomic problems of the oil-exporting countries in the conditions of instability on the world market." RUDN Journal of Public Administration 5, no. 4 (December 15, 2018): 411–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.22363/2312-8313-2018-5-4-411-425.
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Macroeconomic problems of the oil-exporting countries, determined by the instability on the world oil market are still a significant factor affecting the development and socio-economic situation in this group of states and their economic policies. This is especially pronounced in the context of falling world oil prices, when for oil-exporting countries the question of restructuring the economic structure dependent on the oil factor arises with particular urgency. However, the global system of international division of labor imposes serious structural constraints on opportunities and rates of structural economic reforms. At the same time, despite the peculiarities and diversity of the manifestations of macroeconomic problems in various oil exporting countries under the fluctuations in the oil market conditions, similar difficulties in the field of financial, economic, structural and foreign economic policies are manifested.
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Elheddad, Mohamed Mahjoub. "Natural Resources and FDI in GCC Countries." International Journal of Business and Social Research 6, no. 7 (August 12, 2016): 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.18533/ijbsr.v6i7.977.
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<p>Natural resources are a blessing for some countries to attract FDI but cursed for others. Existing literature argues the suggestion that resource-rich countries attract less FDI because of resource (oil) price volatility. This study examines that natural resources discourage FDI in GCC countries (the FDI-Natural resources curse hypothesis), using panel data analysis for six oil dependent countries during 1980-2013 and applying several econometrics techniques. The main findings of this paper is that natural resources measured by oil rents have a negative association with FDI inflows; this negative impact is robust even when other FDI determinates of FDI are included. FDI inflows decreased between 0.15 and 0.92% when oil rents increased by 1%. In addition, the empirical results show that trade openness and labour force are the main factors that encourage FDI, while political instability and corruption deter FDI inflows into GCC countries.</p>
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Fattahi, Shahram, Zainab Moridi, and Rasoul Moridi. "The Impact of Oil Shocks on Exchange Rates: The Case of Selected OPEC Countries." Applied Finance and Accounting 7, no. 2 (March 11, 2021): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/afa.v7i2.5188.
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OPEC countries are heavily dependent on oil dollar revenues through which impact on exchange rates. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of oil shocks on the real exchange rates for selected OPEC countries for the period 1980-2018. The oil shocks are first obtained using the vector auto-regression model and then their effects on the exchange rates are estimated using a panel quantile regression model. The results show that effect of oil shocks on exchange rates varies across quantiles. The oil specific-demand shock and global demand shock have a negative and significant effect on the real exchange rates while the oil supply shock has a positive and significant effect on the real exchange rates in OPEC countries. Furthermore, oil specific-demand shock has the most impact on the real exchange rates.
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Degha, Langmi Esua, Saha Jean Claude, and Epo Boniface Ngah. "Crude oil price changes and exchange rate: Case of oil exporting countries in CEMAC." American Journal of Economics 6, no. 1 (April 8, 2022): 56–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.47672/aje.983.
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Purpose: Policy makers, academics and journalists have frequently discussed the link between oil prices and exchange rate in recent years. After the 2014 World’s biggest oil price drop that plunge CEMAC oil exporting countries into an external liquidity strain, due to the pressure raised on Euro to which CFA franc is pegged, this paper revisits the dependence between crude oil price changes and exchange rate.
Methodology: Crude oil price is the main independent variable, though other independent variables have been considered. The change in crude oil price is captured through differentiation of average yearly crude oil prices. The real effective exchange rate (RER) is the dependent variable, captured with the consumer’s price index (CPI), which describes the strength of a currency relative to a basket of other currencies. The data used in this study were extracted from Word Bank Development Indicators (WBDI, 2020) and World Bank Commodity Price Data. The study covers the period 1990-2018. The main channels of transmission used in this paper are the terms of trade channel, the wealth or portfolio channel and the anticipation or expectation channel. A panel autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model was used.
Findings: The result shows that there is a short run positive and insignificant effect of oil price changes on exchange rate of CEMAC oil producing countries. In the long-run, there is rather a negative and significant impact of oil price changes on exchange rate. More concretely, a unit increase in oil prices depreciates exchange rate of these countries by 0.4340 units and this is significant at 1%. The short run Cross-country analysis shows that the effect is negatively significant for Cameroon and Chad; positive and significant for Democratic Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea; but positive and not significant for Gabon. These results are likely linked to structural differences between countries as the dependence on oil revenue and the security situation are concerned.
Recommendations: Given this negative long run damage of oil prices on exchange rate of CEMAC oil producing countries, it is highly advisable these countries increase direct investments in key economic non-oil sectors in order to reduce dependence. On the other hand, considering the unidirectional causality from exchange rate to oil prices, a policy of exchange rate anchor by BEAC is suitable in order to absorb the shock of oil price changes on exchange rate and eventually inflation in the these economies.
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Degha, Langmi Esua, Saha Jean Claude, and Epo Boniface Ngah. "Crude oil price changes and exchange rate: Case of oil exporting countries in CEMAC." American Journal of Economics 6, no. 1 (April 8, 2022): 56–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.47672/aje.983.
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Purpose: Policy makers, academics and journalists have frequently discussed the link between oil prices and exchange rate in recent years. After the 2014 World’s biggest oil price drop that plunge CEMAC oil exporting countries into an external liquidity strain, due to the pressure raised on Euro to which CFA franc is pegged, this paper revisits the dependence between crude oil price changes and exchange rate.
Methodology: Crude oil price is the main independent variable, though other independent variables have been considered. The change in crude oil price is captured through differentiation of average yearly crude oil prices. The real effective exchange rate (RER) is the dependent variable, captured with the consumer’s price index (CPI), which describes the strength of a currency relative to a basket of other currencies. The data used in this study were extracted from Word Bank Development Indicators (WBDI, 2020) and World Bank Commodity Price Data. The study covers the period 1990-2018. The main channels of transmission used in this paper are the terms of trade channel, the wealth or portfolio channel and the anticipation or expectation channel. A panel autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model was used.
Findings: The result shows that there is a short run positive and insignificant effect of oil price changes on exchange rate of CEMAC oil producing countries. In the long-run, there is rather a negative and significant impact of oil price changes on exchange rate. More concretely, a unit increase in oil prices depreciates exchange rate of these countries by 0.4340 units and this is significant at 1%. The short run Cross-country analysis shows that the effect is negatively significant for Cameroon and Chad; positive and significant for Democratic Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea; but positive and not significant for Gabon. These results are likely linked to structural differences between countries as the dependence on oil revenue and the security situation are concerned.
Recommendations: Given this negative long run damage of oil prices on exchange rate of CEMAC oil producing countries, it is highly advisable these countries increase direct investments in key economic non-oil sectors in order to reduce dependence. On the other hand, considering the unidirectional causality from exchange rate to oil prices, a policy of exchange rate anchor by BEAC is suitable in order to absorb the shock of oil price changes on exchange rate and eventually inflation in the these economies.
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ERTUNGA, Evrim. "The Effects of Oil Prices and Exchange Rates Movements on Economic Growth of the Selected Emerging Oil Dependent Countries." Ege Akademik Bakis (Ege Academic Review) 19, no. 2 (April 30, 2019): 301–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.21121/eab.558475.
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Czech, Katarzyna. "OIL DEPENDENCE OF POST-SOVIET COUNTRIES IN THE CASPIAN SEA REGION: THE CASE OF AZERBAIJAN AND KAZAKHSTAN." Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia 17, no. 3 (September 30, 2018): 5–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/aspe.2018.17.3.32.
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The aim of the research is to present oil dependence of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan from 2000 till 2017. The analysed countries represent two former Soviet Union countries in the Caspian Sea region and are among the world’s top 15 oil dependent economies. It is shown that both countries generate high oil rents to GDP ratios. Moreover, the paper reveals that their fuels export constitutes a huge portion of total merchandise export. It implies that majority of Azerbaijani and Kazakhstani export revenues come from resources extraction. The empirical analysis of co-movements between the crude oil prices and chosen macroeconomic indicators shows that correlation between oil prices and Kazakhstani and Azerbaijani public debt to GDP ratios is negative, strong and significant. In addition, there is significant relationship between oil prices and Kazakhstani exchange rate and GDP growth rate.
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Basedau, Matthias, and Thomas Richter. "Why do some oil exporters experience civil war but others do not?: investigating the conditional effects of oil." European Political Science Review 6, no. 4 (November 26, 2013): 549–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1755773913000234.
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According to quantitative studies, oil seems the only natural resource that is robustly linked to civil war onset. However, recent debates on the nexus of oil and internal conflict have neglected the fact that there are a number of peaceful rentier oil states in existence. Few efforts have been made to explain why some oil-exporting countries have experienced civil war while others have not. We thus address this puzzle, by arguing that civil war risks depend on the specific conditions of oil production and how they come to structure state–society relations. Specifically, we expect that states that are either highly dependent on oil or who have problematic relations with oil regions are prone to civil war. However, these risks will be mitigated either when democratic institutions can manage conflicts peacefully or when abundant oil revenues can be spent in such a way as to buy peace. We test this conditional argument by comparing 39 net oil exporters, using a (crisp-set) Qualitative Comparative Analysis – a methodology particularly suited to test conditional relationships in medium-Nsamples. Our results largely confirm our conditional hypotheses. Conditions of oil production are ambiguous, and particular combinations thus explain the onset of civil war. Specifically, we find that high abundance is sufficient to ensure peace, while two distinct pathways lead to civil war: the combination of high dependence and low abundance, as well as the overlap of ethnic exclusion and oil reserves in non-abundant and non-democratic oil states.
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Adamczyk, Piotr. "Does the Volatility of Oil Price Affect the Structure of Employment? The Role of Exchange Rate Regime and Energy Import Dependency." Energies 15, no. 19 (September 21, 2022): 6895. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15196895.
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The volatility of oil price as a key energy resource for modern economies has a significant impact on the macroeconomic situation. In addition to affecting aggregated production, consumption, employment and inflation, oil shocks can affect the economy in a more nuanced way. One consequence of the turmoil in the oil market may be a shift in the employment structure between the tradable and non-tradable sectors, which we investigate in this paper. The aim of this study is to test how oil price volatility affects the structure of employment in Central and Eastern European countries. Our main hypothesis is that oil price volatility causes a temporal employment reallocation between tradable and non-tradable sectors. To verify this assumption, we created Interacted Panel VAR (IPVAR), which showed that the shocks of oil price volatility affect the employment structure and this impact is conditioned by the level of dependence on energy imports and the exchange rate regime. The constructed impulse response functions showed that, in general, oil price volatility causes a temporal fall in relative employment in the manufacturing (tradable) sector. For periods of an above-average import of energy, the exchange rate regime does not matter for the response of the structure of employment. Inversely, when countries are less dependent on imports of energy, the exchange rate regime matters for shock absorption—for floats, oil price shocks cause a temporal fall in relative employment in manufacturing, whereas for pegs, there is a slight relative increase in employment in manufacturing.
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Imer-Ertunga, Evrim. "Renewable natural resources from the view of oil dependent countries: the case of Turkey." Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 53, no. 6 (July 20, 2010): 759–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2010.488114.
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Alkhateeb, Tarek Tawfik Yousef, and Haider Mahmood. "Oil Price and Energy Depletion Nexus in GCC Countries: Asymmetry Analyses." Energies 13, no. 12 (June 12, 2020): 3058. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13123058.
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Oil price has played a prominent role in oil exporter economies and may also affect energy depletion in oil-dependent countries. Considering asymmetry, the relationship between oil price (OP) and energy depletion has been investigated in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region from 1970 to 2017. We find asymmetrical positive effects of OP on the energy depletion in the panel of the GCC region. To avoid aggregation biasness in the panel estimates, we also conduct a time-series analysis on each GCC country. We find a positive impact of increasing OP on the energy depletion in six GCC countries, and this effect is found to be elastic in the case of all countries except for Kuwait. Positive effects of decreasing OP on the depletion are also found in all the GCC countries, and these effects are found to be elastic or unit elastic in the case of all countries except Saudi Arabia. Asymmetry in the relationship of oil price and energy depletion is established for Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia in terms of the different magnitude of effects.
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Abbas, Shujaat, Faheem Ur Rehman, Shabeer Khan, Mohd Ziaur Rehman, Wadi B. Alonazi, and Abul Ala Numan. "Crowding-Out Effect of Natural Resources on Domestic Investment: The Importance of Information Communication and Technology (ICT) and Control of Corruption in the Middle East and Central Asia." Sustainability 14, no. 20 (October 17, 2022): 13392. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su142013392.
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Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia depend heavily on natural resources for their exports, income, and employment. This study is a preliminary investigation that explores the effect of natural resources on domestic investment in a sample of 12 highly resource-dependent countries in the Middle East and Central Asia from 2000 to 2019. The recently advanced cross-sectional dependent auto-regressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model and panel quantile regression are employed. The results validate the accelerator theory that an increase of the non-oil GDP growth rate has a robust positive impact on domestic investment, while natural resources crowd-out domestic investment. The long-run estimate of ICT reveals a significant positive impact, while corruption shows a significant negative effect. These findings urge sample resource-dependent countries to focus on developing ICT-based enterprises and control prevailing corruption levels. Moreover, adopting liberal trade policies can also enhance domestic investment opportunities.
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Köves, András. "Oil and Economy." Acta Oeconomica 55, no. 4 (November 1, 2005): 371–402. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/aoecon.55.2005.4.1.
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Economic literature has recently paid increased attention to the interrelationships between resource (oil) wealth (i.e. dependence on exports of oil and other raw materials) on one hand, and macroeconomic performance (and socio-political system) on the other. Most authors find that resource wealth has a negative impact on economic development, and suggest that resource-oriented countries should diversify their economies. This article reviews some economic-policy dilemmas, and also examines the need for, and the constraints of, structural changes in Russia, an atypical, but quite important resource-dependent country. The negative implications of the “resource curse”are valid in the case of this country, as well. Russia has become resource-oriented despite the priority of heavy (military) industry development during the Soviet period. Although in some fields Soviet manufacturing was extensive and strong, it proved inefficient and internationally non-competitive. Engineering - the largest industrial sector - was never export-oriented. In addition, post-Soviet decline led to significant de-industrialisation. Thus, the present dependence on oil and gas is more a consequence than a cause of the weakness of manufacturing. Government-managed reorientation of resources from raw materials sectors onto manufacturing and services (urged by almost everyone but showing little progress) is a necessary but far not sufficient condition of the economic modernisation.
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Vignesh, V., S. Vijayan, G. Selvakumar, and D. Prince Sahaya Sudherson. "Experimental investigation and mechanism analysis: Effect of concentration and temperature on the heat transfer characteristics of novel MWCNT-mustard oil nanofluid." Bulletin of the Chemical Society of Ethiopia 36, no. 3 (July 15, 2022): 675–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/bcse.v36i3.16.
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ABSTRACT. The bio-oils as alternative lubricating fluid are potential solution for the automotive and industrial mechanical systems. The development of novel renewable and non-toxic bio-oils with better heat transfer distinctiveness will strengthen the economy of farmers in the agricultural based countries. The most innovative approach to improve the heat transfer characteristics of bio-oils is converting it into nanofluids by dispersing nanomaterials which has extremely high heat transfer characteristics. In this study, MWCNT-Mustard oil nanofluids were formulated through ultrasonication and their dispersion stability was estimated through Zeta-potential technique. The thermal stability of the MWCNT-Mustard oil nanofluids are estimated through thermogravimetric analysis and concentration and temperature dependent density, thermal conductivity and specific heat capacity of MWCNT-Mustard oil nanofluids are also determined and their characteristics are discussed. The heat transfer characteristics of MWCNT-Mustard oil nanofluids observed through the heat pipe test rig at different inlet temperatures, mass flow rate of nanofluids and Reynolds number. The results exhibits that the dispersion of MWCNT enhances the heat transfer characteristics of MWCNT-Mustard oil nanofluids.
KEY WORDS: Non-toxic bio-oils, Nanomaterials, Nanofluids, Thermogravimetric analysis, MWCNT, Mustard oil
Bull. Chem. Soc. Ethiop. 2022, 36(3), 675-686.
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.4314/bcse.v36i3.16
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Rasoulinezhad, E., and M. Karimpour. "Characteristics and aspects of the oil revenue management models in Iran and the Russian Federation." TRANSBAIKAL STATE UNIVERSITY JOURNAL 28, no. 5 (2022): 101–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.21209/2227-9245-2022-28-5-101-109.
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Oil revenue management is one of the most important economic issues for Iran and Russia. The importance of studying this issue is due to the fact that in recent years, the national economies of Iran and Russia have become highly dependent on oil revenues, and therefore the mechanism of their domestic economy has become highly sensitive to global fluctuations in oil prices. Therefore, macroeconomic policymakers of the two countries in recent decades have tried to increase the resilience of their national economy in the face of sharp fluctuations in world oil prices. The purpose of this article is to examine the situation of the economies of Iran and Russia during various historical oil shocks and also to discuss the strategies of the two countries in reducing dependence on oil revenues and managing oil revenues as well. The results of the study show that despite the implementation of various policies (such as the establishment of the National Development Fund of Iran in 2010 or the Stabilization Fund in Russia in 2004) both countries have weaknesses in oil revenue management. Therefore, policymakers in both countries should pay more attention to this economic challenge, especially now that they are experiencing the COVID-19 negative consequences as well as fighting Western sanctions.
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Alekhin, Boris I. "Oil and the Ruble: Collapse of Cointegration." Financial Journal 13, no. 1 (February 2021): 58–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2021-1-58-74.
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Oil still contributes around 30 % to Russia's commodity export earnings, therefore the impact of oil prices on Ruble's exchange rate is of current interest to Russian economists. Instruments of time series analysis were used to test a proposition that the Russian ruble’s exchange rate has become less dependent on Brent crude oil price in recent years. We obtained 1,095 weekly observations for years 2000 to 2020 were obtained from FINAM company website. Our empirical model is a linear regression of the ruble’s exchange rate on Brent crude oil price. The Bai-Perron test has identified three structural breaks in the data corresponding to four chronological regimes. The Engle-Granger cointegration test has found both the rate and the price to be non-stationary in all regimes while cointegration was found only in the third regime (September 12, 2011 – October 23, 2017). The main reasons for collapse of cointegration in the fourth regime (October 30, 2017 – December 28, 2020) are 1) successful efforts by oil-producing countries to curb oil production, 2) decline in Russian import of goods and services, 3) Bank of Russia’s contractionary monetary policy, 4) built-in exchange rate stabilizer activated by the budget rule, and 5) anti-Russian sanctions. Cointegration, as it turns out, comes and goes.
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Nakibullah, Ashraf. "Economic Diversification in Bahrain." Applied Economics and Finance 5, no. 5 (August 28, 2018): 67. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v5i5.3576.
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Countries, such as the GCC countries, that predominantly rely for their income on oil resources face the reality that these sources of their income would not last forever. Thus, being a member of the GCC countries, Bahrain has been pursuing the policies of sustainable and diversified economic growth. This paper uses the share of nonoil real GDP to total real GDP as a measure of diversification to access the extent of diversification in Bahrain. The shares of nonoil GDP increased from 64% in the beginning of this of this century to 80% in 2016 with an average annual growth rate of 6.2% for the period 2002-2016. This success story seems to have an inherent problem. A bivariate structural VAR model with nonoil real GDP and oil price shows that oil prices (indirectly oil sector) have positive impact on the movements of the nonoil real GDP. This means nonoil sector has been very much dependent on the oil sector and neutralizing the dependence is required for the post oil era.
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Zaibet, Lokman, Mazin Al Siyabi, Houcine Boughanmi, Ibtisam Al Abri, and Shaikha Al Akhzami. "Doing Business in the COMESA Region: The Role of Innovation and Trade Facilitation." Perspectives on Global Development and Technology 21, no. 2 (September 9, 2022): 169–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/15691497-12341623.
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Abstract Developing oil-dependent countries, like Oman, have growing potentials to broaden their export base aside from the hydrocarbon sector, thus enhancing economic growth. The article aims to identify factors to enhance Oman non-oil exports to the COMESA countries with a focus on innovations and trade facilitation. At the macro level, the article uses country trade data to explore the determinants of trade. At the firm level, the focus is on firm export behavior and innovation. Results show the key role of trade facilitation and firm-level innovations in particular at the commodity level. Innovation is significant and positive for commodities like vegetables, plastic, hides, stone, glass, and machinery. Government’s policies to boost exports and enhance economic growth should be geared to reducing market risks facing exporting firms as well as rewarding innovative companies through better innovation-targeted policies.
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Mohammed, Dauda, J. Udoma Afangideh, and Oloruntoba S. Ogundele. "Oil Price and Exchange Rate Nexus-Evidence From Nigeria." International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting 9, no. 1 (January 3, 2019): 298. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ijafr.v9i1.14386.
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Price swings at international crude oil market significantly impact on macroeconomic fundamentals of oil dependent countries. Hence, understanding the relationship between oil price movement and the exchange rate has become imperative especially for oil exporting countries. This paper examines the causal effect between oil prices and Nigerian naira–US dollar exchange rate using frequency daily data for the period 12/07/2010-31/08/2017. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models were used to estimate our oil prices and nominal naira exchange rate equation. Our findings reveal a positive relation between oil price and naira exchange rate meaning that an upward movement in the price of oil causes the naira to depreciate. Conversely, any fall in oil price leads to appreciation in the value of the naira. The result has important policy implication given that 90% of the total annual foreign revenue of Nigeria comes from oil thus oil price shocks have severe impact on the Nigerian economy. This justifies the need for Nigeria’s economic diversification to minimize the vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to vagaries of the international crude oil market and to delink the exchange rate and reserve movement from developments in oil prices.
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Karanfil, Fatih, and Luc Désiré Omgba. "The energy transition and export diversification in oil-dependent countries: The role of structural factors." Ecological Economics 204 (February 2023): 107681. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107681.
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Eissa, Mohamed Abdelaziz, and Mohammed M. Elgammal. "Foreign Direct Investment Determinants in Oil Exporting Countries: Revisiting the Role of Natural Resources." Journal of Emerging Market Finance 19, no. 1 (December 9, 2019): 33–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0972652719880153.
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This article explores the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in oil-dependent economies and revisits the role of natural resources in attracting FDI to countries of this kind. Panel data from the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been employed, covering the period from 1990 to 2015. First, we investigate the FDI determinants during the entire sample period, and then run another investigation starting from the beginning of 2000, when the FDI in the GCC region increased substantially. The results show that there is a positive nexus between market growth, trade openness, inflation, infrastructure, oil price and FDI. Interestingly, oil reserves have a negative impact on FDI; this may be because countries with large reserves of oil like the GCC countries have enough financial resources to finance their economic development. This leads these governments to set up restrictions to protect their resources, thus reducing the amount of resource-seeking FDI. JEL Codes: E22, F21, F23, F43, O13
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Asheghian, Parviz. "Oil Revenues and Export Earnings Instability: The Evidence from Iran." Global Economy Journal 15, no. 3 (September 2015): 431–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/gej-2014-0059.
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As a member of OPEC, Iran is a nation that is dependent on petrodollars. More specifically, roughly 80 percent of total export earnings in Iran are generated from oil revenue. This in fact is one of the attributes of many developing countries in that their exports are concentrated in either one or a small number of primary products that contribute to the bulk of their foreign exchange revenues. Export instability occurs because export earnings tend to fluctuate annually to a greater extent for developing countries than for advanced countries. The factors that give rise to export instability can be classified as price variability and a high degree of commodity concentration. To date, no study has examined the impact of export instability in the highly oil-dependent Iran. This study develops a model and employs a forty-year annual time series data set to estimate the impact of commodity concentration and price variability in Iran. The estimation results obtained from the time-series model developed in this study does not support the conventional argument, regarding the positive correlation between commodity concentration and export instability. It also shows that fluctuations in petroleum export revenues have significant impact on total export earnings instability in Iran.
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Martin, Philip L., and Froilan Malit. "A new era for labour migration in the GCC?" Migration Letters 14, no. 1 (January 3, 2017): 113–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.33182/ml.v14i1.320.
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The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), are among the most dependent on foreign workers to fill private-sector jobs. A combination of lower oil prices and rapid native labour force growth has given new impetus to efforts to diversify GCC economies away from oil and encourage natives to fill private sector jobs. This article summarizes the current status of foreigners and foreign workers in GCC countries and considers several scenarios, including maintaining the status quo, improving protections for foreign workers in countries of destination (CODs) and countries of origin (COOs), and changing the current migration system to employ fewer and more skilled workers.
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Humbatova, Sugra. "The Impact of Oil Prices on State Budget Income and Expenses: Case of Azerbaijan." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 13, no. 1 (January 22, 2023): 189–212. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.13691.
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Since Azerbaijan is one of the oil exporting countries, its macroeconomic indicators, especially the exchange rate, the state budget are highly dependent on the oil factor. This study assessed the role of oil in the economy and the impact of the oil factor on the revenues and expenditures of the state budget of Azerbaijan in manat and dollar terms. The study covers the period 2005m03 − 2022m05. Unit root (Augmented Dickey−Fuller (ADF), Phillips−Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski−Phillips−Schmidt−Shin (KPSS)) tests were applied to check the stationarity of variables (time series). ARDL was applied as a research method. In terms of the reliability of the obtained results, the error correction model (ECM) was used, standard tests were carried out, and the joint integration methods of FMOLS, DOLS and CCR were also applied in the evaluation. Engel−Granger and Phillips−Ouliaris tests have been used to test for cointegration interactions between variables. Short−term, long−term, and strong associations between variables were also calculated. The results of the study showed that the state budget depends on the oil and gas sector, and fluctuations in world oil prices functionally and along the chain affect oil revenues and the state budget. A different impact of oil prices (oil revenues) on the state budget in terms of manat and dollar was the devaluation of the manat, which was carried out to reduce the impact of the global financial and economic crisis on Azerbaijan. The general conclusion of the study was a recommendation to further accelerate work on the diversification of the economy and the development of the non−oil sector. The results of the conducted research can serve as a scientific basis for the economic policy of the state aimed at reducing the impact of external oil price shocks on the economy of Azerbaijan and other similar oil−exporting countries, including on the state budget, and diversifying the economy. The functional dependencies of the income and expenses of the state budget in terms of manat and dollar on world oil prices are given below.
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Godson, John Abraham. "Is this the end of the OPEC cartel?" Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe 12, no. 3 (September 30, 2009): 73–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10103-009-0013-8.
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In looking at various circumstances surrounding the OPEC and the present economic crisis, one can come to a conclusion that this is the end of OPEC. This hypothesis could be supported by such factors as, falling OPEC share in the oil market, President Barack Obama’s new energy policy for the United States, depleting oil reserves and the increasing worries about environmental protection. Despite these factors, it seems that the most possible scenario would be the continued strong influence of OPEC on oil prices, albeit weakened. The above hypothesis is supported by fluctuation in oil prices, rising oil demands in emerging economies like China, the dominating influence of the automobile lobby, the negative effect of bio-fuel on agriculture and finally, the underdeveloped nature of many developing countries, which in turn mean dependent on oil for years to come.
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Zhiltsov, S. S. "Coronavirus hits former-Soviet countries." Post-Soviet Issues 7, no. 1 (April 15, 2020): 8–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.24975/2313-8920-2020-7-1-8-17.
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The year of 2020 started a new chapter in the development of former-Soviet countries. The coronavirus epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has spread to affect all countries throughout the world, including the countries of the former Soviet Union. Its influence has already affected the economic and social development of the countries in the post-Soviet space. Closing borders, stopping tourism, and imposing severe restrictions on transport services were the first measures that contributed to reducing the incidence rates. At the same time, these measures affected bilateral and multilateral trade and economic relations among the countries of the post-Soviet space.All countries of the post-Soviet space have taken steps to allocate additional funds to combat coronavirus. Ad hoc funds were formed, the review of budget expenditures and revenues began. However, in fact in the first few months the countries faced economic distress, the overcoming of which could take considerable time.The coronavirus epidemic is taking place against the backdrop of global economic crisis and a sharp drop in oil prices. Economic development models based on increasing consumption without economic growth, increasing the level of external and internal debt have shown their insolvency. In these conditions, the countries of the post-Soviet space, which are highly dependent on the external factor, have also experienced significant economic hardships.Finally, the «price warfare» in the oil market has a strong influence. The United States and Saudi Arabia’s attempts to achieve dominance in the oil market, by displacing Russia from it, as well, have had a destabilizing impact on the world oil market. This factor has had a direct impact on those former-Soviet countries that produce and export hydrocarbon resources.In general, the coronavirus epidemic, taking place against the backdrop of global economic challenges and oil competition, will have a negative impact on the economic and political development of former-Soviet countries. The impact of the epidemic, its consequences, will affect the former-Soviet countries for many years to come.
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Al-Taie, Ahmed Hafedh Hameed, and Ahmed Hadi Salman. "American trade policy between protectionism and economic dumping for the period of 2009-2021: implications for China and Iraq." Economic Annals-ХХI 187, no. 1-2 (February 28, 2021): 29–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.21003/ea.v187-03.
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The main aim of the study is to investigate the American trade policy between protectionism and economic dumping for the period 2011-2021. The trade war between the United States of America and China is a serious issue in terms of international economic relations, which has negative effects on the global economy, especially those related to the low rates of international trade. Accordingly, the return of economic and trade relations between the two countries to their previous state will have positive effects on the developing oil economies, including the increase in oil prices in global markets. The increase in oil prices will lead to an increase in the trade exchange of Iraq with the countries worldwide, given that its economy is among the developing oil-dependent economies that depend on oil as the main source of its revenues. Likewise, it is in the economic interest of Iraq that China becomes the first trading partner after the value of trade exchange between the two countries reached 30 billion dollars in 2020, and the same is true for the United States of America, the second trading partner, as the value of trade exchange between the two countries amounted to 13.1 billion dollars in 2020.
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Arafat, Weal, Zhang Ya Bing, and Omar Al-Mutawakel. "Infrastructure Developing and Economic Growth in United Arab Emirates." Business and Economic Research 8, no. 1 (December 23, 2017): 95. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ber.v8i1.12355.
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In the past thirty years, the United Arab Emirates non oil sector's contribution to GDP has been rising, the rise of a number of advantages of the industry, such as real estate, trade, tourism, construction, finance, shipping, processing industries. This led to the prosperity of the UAE economic market. UAE has a stable political environment and security community, and keep a good relationship with the major countries. Although the UAE is involved in some areas of conflict, but it has no impact on the overall situation. It has a wealth of oil and gas resources, is one of the most affluent countries in the region and the world, of which the government develop a comprehensive development strategy and efforts to develop non oil and gas industry.Although UAE has the most diversified economy in the GCC, the UAE's economy remains extremely reliant on petroleum(oil). With the exception of Dubai, most of the UAE is dependent on oil revenues. Petroleum and natural gascontinue to play a central role in the economy, especially in Abu Dhabi. More than 85% of the UAE's economy was based on the oil exports in 2009. While Abu Dhabi and other UAE emirates have remained relatively conservative in their approach to diversification, Dubai, which has far smaller oil reserves, was bolder in its diversification policy. In 2011, oil exports accounted for 77% of the UAE's state budget.The United Arab Emirates attaches great importance to infrastructure construction, and regard it as the basis of economic and social development. Since 70s, the UAE government has invested heavily in the construction of infrastructures, so as to create a favorable environment for foreign capital to enter Dubai. The United Arab Emirates as the most important financial and traffic center of the area, perfect legal system, has clean government and a good investment environment. Although affected by the 2009 Dubai debt crisis and the 2014 international oil prices and other unfavorable factors, but the overall economy is still maintained growth momentum. As an important hub in the Middle East, and the ancient maritime Silk Road of the important station, United Arab Emirates has "The Belt and Road" strategic prospects. In the context of oil prices, the United Arab Emirates non oil economic development is still strong, the development of infrastructure gets maintain stable growth, and investment risk is low.
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Matthews, Robert B., and Eric Steglich. "A Tale Of Two Countries: What The United States Can Learn From Brazil About Reducing Dependence On Foreign Oil." International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER) 10, no. 8 (July 28, 2011): 67. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/iber.v10i8.5379.
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Dependence on foreign oil by the United States of America creates massive problems from the economic, environmental, and national security perspectives. In recognition of this reality, the USA embarked upon an energy independence plan in the mid-1970s, following the Arab oil embargo that accompanied the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Unfortunately, this effort has failed to the extent that the USA is more dependent upon foreign oil today than it was in 1976. At about the same time that the USA initiated its energy effort, a similar effort was also initiated in the South American nation of Brazil, which like the USA was alarmingly dependent upon foreign oil and had sustained substantial economic hardship as a result of the Arab embargo. Today, Brazil is substantially energy independent, and in fact exports oil to the USA. Obviously, Brazil implemented a more effective energy independence effort than did the USA. Lessons which the author believes may be learned from the Brazilian experience are that solving the problem requires that all possible solutions be pursued simultaneously with maximum vigor, that maximum use should be made of existing usable technology rather than waiting for laboratory-scale technologies to be perfected, and that solutions will be reached much faster if the private sector is actively engaged in a cooperative rather than adversarial manner. With these principles in mind, we review available alternatives and propose a comprehensive energy strategy that reduces the USAs dependence on foreign oil in the short run, and ultimately eliminates that dependence in the long run. We further enunciate reasons for believing that such an integrated strategy is far superior to any effort to address the problem by focusing solely upon conservation, or alternative fuels, or drill here, drill now, to the exclusion or minimization of the other approaches. We conclude with a proposed plan for implementing the all hands on deck approach to energy independence.
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El Mahmah, Assil, and Magda Kandil. "Fiscal sustainability challenges in the new normal of low oil prices." International Journal of Development Issues 18, no. 1 (April 1, 2019): 109–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijdi-02-2018-0033.
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Purpose Given the persistence of low oil prices and the continued shrinking of government revenues, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries continue to adapt to the new normal of the oil price environment, with a focus on pressing ahead with subsidies’ reforms and measures to increase non-oil revenues, as well as accelerating debt issuance, which raise concerns about fiscal sustainability and the implications on macroeconomic stability. Design/methodology/approach The purpose of this paper is to examine the sustainability of fiscal policy in GCC by exploring governments’ reaction to rising public debt accumulation via the estimation of a fiscal reaction function to higher debt. Subsequently, the paper compares the obtained results with other similar and non-similar groups, in terms of economic structures and oil dependency, to understand how some macroeconomic factors affect differently the fiscal policy responses, in a context of oil price shocks and high price volatility. Findings The results show that the coefficient of the lagged debt stock was significant and positive, which means that GCC are increasing the pace of reforms and the fiscal primary balance as they issue more debt to ensure a sustainable fiscal policy. The evidence is consistent with the theory that higher levels of debt warrant greater fiscal effort, but at lower debt levels, countries still have the space to increase spending without jeopardizing debt sustainability as long as they remain committed to fiscal reforms to increase the primary balance. The evidence supports the notion that the region’s public finances have improved in response to recent fiscal adjustments. However, national experiences differ considerably, especially given variation in the fiscal breakeven prices against the new normal of low oil prices. Moreover, the findings reveal that various measures of economic performance, as captured by economic growth, openness and the oil price, were also found to be important factors in explaining fiscal performance. The combined effects of low oil prices and high degree of openness warrant further efforts to reform the budget to increase the primary balance while safeguarding priority spending tomobilize non-energy growth and ensure debt sustainability in GCC. Originality/value Given recent experiences and the “low for long” oil price, policy priorities and reforms are necessary in oil-dependent economies, including GCC, to ensure macroeconomic sustainability. Sustaining the momentum of non-energy growth would reduce continued dependency of GCC economies on oil revenues and fiscal spending in the medium-term, creating a bigger scope for private sector participation in economic activity and increasing the prospects of further diversification away from long dependency on oil price volatility and their adverse implications on the fiscal budget and economic cycles.
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Okolo, Chukwuemeka Valentine, Richardson Kojo Edeme, and Chinanuife Emmanuel. "Economic Analysis of Capital Expenditure and Infrastructural Development in Nigeria." Journal of Infrastructure Development 10, no. 1-2 (June 2018): 52–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0974930618809173.
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Infrastructural development has been the major concern of countries all over the world due to its significant impact in fostering growth. In Nigeria, it has been observed that the level of infrastructure posed serious threat to attaining sustained growth. This study therefore examines the impact of capital expenditure on infrastructural development in Nigeria, utilising time series from 1970 to 2017. The study adopted autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model due to the possibility of the past value of the dependent variable explaining its present value, and found that capital expenditure, construction expenditure and non-oil revenue have the potency of accentuating infrastructural development in the long-run but such is being hampered by external debt. The positive effect of recurrent expenditure on infrastructural development is a pointer that bulk of the expenditure in Nigeria over the years is recurrent in nature. These suggest the need to boost non-oil revenue, reduce recurrent and channel external debt into productive infrastructural development.
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Pan, Wen-Tsao. "Mixed modified fruit fly optimization algorithm with general regression neural network to build oil and gold prices forecasting model." Kybernetes 43, no. 7 (July 29, 2014): 1053–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/k-02-2014-0024.
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Purpose – When facing a clouded global economy, many countries would increase their gold reserves. On the other hand, oil supply and demand depends on the political and economic situations of oil producing countries and their production technologies. Both oil and gold reserve play important roles in the economic development of a country. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses the historical data of oil and gold prices as research data, and uses the historical price tendency charts of oil and gold, as well as cluster analysis, to discuss the correlation between the historical data of oil and gold prices. By referring to the technical index equation of stocks, the technical indices of oil and gold prices are calculated as the independent variable and the closing price as the dependent variable of the forecasting model. Findings – The findings indicate that there is no obvious correlation between the price tendencies of oil and gold. According to five evaluating indicators, the MFOAGRNN forecast model has better forecast ability than the other three forecasting models. Originality/value – This paper explored the correlation between oil and gold prices, and built oil and gold prices forecasting models. In addition, this paper proposes a modified FOA (MFOA), where an escape parameter Δ is added to Si. The findings showed that the forecasting model that combines MFOA and GRNN has the best ability to forecast the closing price of oil and gold.
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Ajayi, Felix Odunayo, A. Oluwaseyi Adelowokan, and Oluwatosin O. Ogunyomi. "Does Nigeria Non-Renewable Resource Abundance Leads to Macroeconomic Performance? A Trend Analysis (1970-2014)." ABC Journal of Advanced Research 10, no. 2 (October 13, 2021): 131—xxx. http://dx.doi.org/10.18034/abcjar.v10i2.592.
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Theoretically, natural resource abundance is expected to create national wealth; however, the inconclusiveness in the literature and among the African rich resources motivated this study. Our paper investigated that does Nigeria's non-renewable resource abundance leads to sustainable macroeconomic performance? To achieve the objectives of this study, our paper employs descriptive trends analysis, using tables and charts to measure the relationship between the non-renewable resource abundance, proxied as oil and gas variables, and the selected macroeconomic variables to draw an inference within the study period of 1970 – 2014 in Nigeria. In summary, our study concludes that an inverse relationship exists between non-renewable resource abundance and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria for the covered period 1970 – 2014. Therefore, our study conforms to the existing studies of Sachs & Warner, 2001; Gylfasson, 2005, VanPloeg and Venables, 2013 that African rich-resources countries, including Nigeria, a non-renewable resource abundance retards macroeconomic performance within the period of study. Nonetheless, this study recommends that government should consistently endeavor to increase the proportion of education expenditure to total expenditure as well as same for capital expenditure to total expenditure, and finally, transform the economy from an oil-dependent economy to a non-oil driven economy, that is diversification of the economy, which would change the non-renewable resource-abundant nation from curse to blessing and thus, guarantee sustainable macroeconomic performance in Nigeria.
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Awujola, Abayomi, Anna Dyaji Baba Iyakwar, and Ropheka Emerson Bot. "Examination Of The Relationship Between Oil Price Shock And Macroeconomic Variables In Nigeria." SocioEconomic Challenges 4, no. 1 (2020): 102–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/sec.4(1).102-110.2020.
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The price of oil is one of the important macroeconomic indicators because of the extreme importance of supplying oil to different countries of the world to meet their energy needs. As Nigeria’s economy depends on oil prices, the country remains vulnerable to fluctuations in world oil prices. During periods of rising oil prices caused by macroeconomic and political conditions in the international market, the state usually has a positive trade balance, there is an increase in foreign exchange reserves and the revaluation of the national currency. The purpose of the article is to evaluate the relationship between an oil price change and Nigeria’s economic growth rate using regression analysis. The source of statistical information is data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, and the Nigerian Energy Commission. By checking the time series for steady-state using the advanced Dickie-Fuller test, a regression equation is constructed where the dependent variable is represented as the price of oil and the independent variables are key macroeconomic indicators. The econometric model constructed is adequate because the determination coefficient and the adjusted determination coefficient are 0.97 and 0.96 respectively. The Durbin-Watson statistic in the model is 1.98, meaning the model is reliable. Oil price fluctuations have been found to be related to investment, economic growth, and exchange rates, as well as to inflation. The paper argues that the use of the shock of oil prices should be supported, as it promotes economic growth and is not inflationary. Therefore, the authors believe that the government, which is the main beneficiary of cash, should also implement strategies that counterbalance the propensity for the economic downturn. Based on the analysis, a set of priority measures was proposed: enhancing financial liberalization, combating corruption, transparency of government activities, creating an open currency market, and developing non-inflationary monetary and fiscal strategies. Keywords: oil price, macroeconomic variables, energy needs, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Dickie-Fuller Extended Test, Petroleum Exporters.
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Evseeva, Olga V. "IMPACT OF THE NEWEST GEOPOLITICAL FACTOR ON THE WORLD OIL MARKET." EKONOMIKA I UPRAVLENIE: PROBLEMY, RESHENIYA 6/2, no. 126 (2022): 105–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.36871/ek.up.p.r.2022.06.02.015.
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The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has led to sanctions aimed at weakening the Russian economy. First, the financial sector came under restrictions, then the energy sector, in particular, the oil industry, was significantly affected. What threats and risks this poses for the Russian economy, as well as countries dependent on Russian energy supplies, are analyzed in this review. The points of view of Russian and foreign analysts are studied, estimates are given on the possibility of finding alternative channels for the sale of Russian oil, as well as the possibility of replenishing Russian supplies to foreign markets.
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Rapaic, Stevan. "Energy market in European Union and interests of Serbia." Medjunarodni problemi 61, no. 4 (2009): 515–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/medjp0904515r.
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The author deals with energy market in Europe by presenting the gross consumption of energy as well as production of energy within the European Union. The need of EU for natural gas and crude oil is one of the main factors why Russia is still the key player in Europe's energy market. European Union is trying to leave Russia behind by importing crude oil and natural gas from countries like Norway, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Iraq, but Europe is still highly dependent of Russian energy. Considering these facts, Serbia recognizes that its economic and political interest is to become a strategic partner with European Union as transit country for Russia's natural gas and crude oil. .
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Alt, James E. "Crude Politics: Oil and the Political Economy of Unemployment in Britain and Norway, 1970–85." British Journal of Political Science 17, no. 2 (April 1987): 149–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123400004695.
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This article extends existing political-economic models to deal more rigorously with politics in countries with trade-dependent economies, and in particular with the policy consequences of oil-exporting in industrial countries. Models drawn from economics and finance show how much of Britain's recent unemployment results from North Sea oil, at first through speculation in sterling in rapidly-growing international currency markets and more recently through the balance of payments. In Norway, by contrast, speculation was deterred by a variety of policies on fixing exchange rates, and the unemployment problem contained by better-planned and executed employment subsidy programmes. These policy variations are explained by differences in available ideas, institutions and, ultimately, structural characteristics.
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Seth, Daksh, B. Sai Giridhar, and Sundara Krishnaswami. "Impact of Crude Oil Price Changes on Select Indian Industries." International Journal of Social Sciences and Management 3, no. 2 (April 29, 2016): 87–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ijssm.v3i2.14622.
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The study quantifies the impact of crude oil price changes on the production, sales turnover and raw material cost of select industries in India where crude oil is a major direct or indirect raw material. The results show that there exists a relationship between crude oil price changes and production of chemicals, coke, and refined petroleum products, a significant impact is observed on the sales turnover of plastic, oil refinery, and automobiles industries. The raw material cost of fertilizers, food processing, and paints industries show a high correlation with crude oil. Energy is the undercurrent that drives economic activity in the world. Fortunes of countries have changed because of crude oil. Its importance to the global economy is unmatched, proven by the fact that oil is responsible for 2.5% of the world GDP. If provided a conducive business environment, companies around the world would like to tap opportunities a billion plus people in India present. India is heavily dependent on crude oil imports thus volatility in crude oil prices is a cause for concern.Int. J. Soc. Sci. Manage. Vol-3, issue-2: 87-92
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Ifa, Adel, and Imène Guetat. "Analysing short-run and long-run causality relationship among public spending, renewable energy consumption, non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from eight of South Mediterranean Countries." Energy Exploration & Exploitation 40, no. 2 (October 14, 2021): 554–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/01445987211049304.
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This study aims to analyse the causal link in the short-run and long-run between economic growth, renewable energy, non-renewable energy and public spending in eight countries of the South Mediterranean Countries group during the 1980–2020 periods. Four steps are used: augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillip Perron unit root tests to check the order of stationarity of variables, bound tests to verify the presence of cointegration, autoregressive distributed lag approach to check the effects of the dependent variables on the independent variable in short run and long run and finally the vector error correction model was used to detect the causal relationships among variables. The results approve the presence of cointegration between variables which confirm the existence of the long-run relationship. In addition, the Granger causality results show varied outcomes and the short-run causal relationships (unidirectional and bidirectional) exist in both countries of South Mediterranean Countries. These results remind the awareness of the South Mediterranean Countries government to revise their energy policy given the cost of energy consumption for importing countries. For the oil-exporting countries (Algeria and Egypt), the international energy market is an unstable market and highly dependent on external factors such as supply and demand and the stability of the world countries. So, it is good that the economies of these countries rely on new sources of energy such as renewable energy.
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Ifa, Adel, and Imène Guetat. "Analysing short-run and long-run causality relationship among public spending, renewable energy consumption, non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from eight of South Mediterranean Countries." Energy Exploration & Exploitation 40, no. 2 (October 14, 2021): 554–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/01445987211049304.
Full textAbstract:
This study aims to analyse the causal link in the short-run and long-run between economic growth, renewable energy, non-renewable energy and public spending in eight countries of the South Mediterranean Countries group during the 1980–2020 periods. Four steps are used: augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillip Perron unit root tests to check the order of stationarity of variables, bound tests to verify the presence of cointegration, autoregressive distributed lag approach to check the effects of the dependent variables on the independent variable in short run and long run and finally the vector error correction model was used to detect the causal relationships among variables. The results approve the presence of cointegration between variables which confirm the existence of the long-run relationship. In addition, the Granger causality results show varied outcomes and the short-run causal relationships (unidirectional and bidirectional) exist in both countries of South Mediterranean Countries. These results remind the awareness of the South Mediterranean Countries government to revise their energy policy given the cost of energy consumption for importing countries. For the oil-exporting countries (Algeria and Egypt), the international energy market is an unstable market and highly dependent on external factors such as supply and demand and the stability of the world countries. So, it is good that the economies of these countries rely on new sources of energy such as renewable energy.