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Relevant bibliographies by topics / Numerical weather forecasting Australia, Southeastern

Academic literature on the topic 'Numerical weather forecasting Australia, Southeastern'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 10 December 2022

Last updated: 28 January 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Numerical weather forecasting Australia, Southeastern"

1

Dai, Jingru, Michael J. Manton, Steven T. Siems, and Elizabeth E. Ebert. "Estimation of Daily Winter Precipitation in the Snowy Mountains of Southeastern Australia." Journal of Hydrometeorology 15, no. 3 (June 1, 2014): 909–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-13-081.1.

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Abstract Wintertime precipitation in the Snowy Mountains provides water for agriculture, industry, and domestic use in inland southeastern Australia. Unlike most of Australia, much of this precipitation falls as snow, and it is recorded by a private network of heated tipping-bucket gauges. These observations are used in the present study to assess the accuracy of a poor man’s ensemble (PME) prediction of precipitation in the Snowy Mountains based on seven numerical weather prediction models. While the PME performs quite well, there is significant underestimation of precipitation intensity. It is shown that indicators of the synoptic environment can be used to improve the PME estimates of precipitation. Four synoptic regimes associated with different precipitation classes are identified from upper-air data. The reliability of the PME forecasts can be sharpened by considering the precipitation in each of the four synoptic classes. A linear regression, based on the synoptic classification and the PME estimate, is used to reduce the forecast errors. The potential to extend the method for forecasting purposes is discussed.

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2

Brown, Andrew, Andrew Dowdy, and Elizabeth E. Ebert. "The Relationship between High-Presentation Asthma Days in Melbourne, Australia, and Modeled Thunderstorm Environments." Weather and Forecasting 37, no. 3 (March 2022): 313–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-21-0109.1.

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Abstract Epidemic asthma events represent a significant risk to emergency services as well as the wider community. In southeastern Australia, these events occur in conjunction with relatively high amounts of grass pollen during the late spring and early summer, which may become concentrated in populated areas through atmospheric convergence caused by a number of physical mechanisms including thunderstorm outflow. Thunderstorm forecasts are therefore important for identifying epidemic asthma risk factors. However, the representation of thunderstorm environments using regional numerical weather prediction models, which are a key aspect of the construction of these forecasts, have not yet been systematically evaluated in the context of epidemic asthma events. Here, we evaluate diagnostics of thunderstorm environments from historical simulations of weather conditions in the vicinity of Melbourne, Australia, in relation to the identification of epidemic asthma cases based on hospital data from a set of controls. Skillful identification of epidemic asthma cases is achieved using a thunderstorm diagnostic that describes near-surface water vapor mixing ratio. This diagnostic is then used to gain insights on the variability of meteorological environments related to epidemic asthma in this region, including diurnal variations, long-term trends, and the relationship with large-scale climate drivers. Results suggest that there has been a long-term increase in days with high water vapor mixing ratio during the grass pollen season, with large-scale climate drivers having a limited influence on these conditions. Significance Statement We investigate the atmospheric conditions associated with epidemic thunderstorm asthma events in Melbourne, Australia, using historical model simulations of the weather. Conditions appear to be associated with high atmospheric moisture content, which relates to environments favorable for severe thunderstorms, but also potentially pollen rupturing as suggested by previous studies. These conditions are shown to be just as important as the concentration of grass pollen for a set of epidemic thunderstorm asthma events in this region. This means that weather model simulations of thunderstorm conditions can be incorporated into the forecasting process for epidemic asthma in Melbourne, Australia. We also investigate long-term variability in atmospheric conditions associated with severe thunderstorms, including relationships with the large-scale climate and long-term trends.

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Perera, Kushan C., Andrew W. Western, Bandara Nawarathna, and Biju George. "Forecasting daily reference evapotranspiration for Australia using numerical weather prediction outputs." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 194 (August 2014): 50–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.03.014.

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Sharples, Jason J., Graham A. Mills, Richard H. D. McRae, and Rodney O. Weber. "Foehn-Like Winds and Elevated Fire Danger Conditions in Southeastern Australia." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 49, no. 6 (June 1, 2010): 1067–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jamc2219.1.

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Abstract Bushfires in southeastern Australia are a serious environmental problem, and consistently cause loss of life and damage to property and other assets. Understanding synoptic processes that can lead to dangerous fire weather conditions throughout the region is therefore an important undertaking aimed at improving community safety, protection of assets, and fire suppression tactics and strategies. In southeastern Australia severe fire weather is often associated with dry cool changes or coastally modified cold fronts. Less well known, however, are synoptic events that can occur in connection with the topography of the region, such as cross-mountain flows and foehn-like winds, which can also lead to abrupt changes in fire weather variables that ultimately result in locally elevated fire danger. This paper focuses on foehn-like occurrences over the southeastern mainland, which are characterized by warm, dry winds on the lee side of the Australian Alps. The characteristics of a number of foehn-like occurrences are analyzed based on observational data and the predictions of a numerical weather model. The analyses confirm the existence of a foehn effect over parts of southeastern Australia and suggest that its occurrence is primarily due to the partial orographic blocking of relatively moist low-level air and the subsidence of drier upper-level air in the lee of the mountains. The regions prone to foehn occurrence, the influence of the foehn on fire weather variables, and the connection between the foehn and mountain waves are also discussed.

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McInnes, Kathleen L., John L. McBride, and Lance M. Leslie. "Cold Fronts over Southeastern Australia: Their Representation in an Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model." Weather and Forecasting 9, no. 3 (September 1994): 384–409. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0384:cfosat>2.0.co;2.

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6

Engel, Chermelle, and Elizabeth E. Ebert. "Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasts of 2-m Temperature over Australia." Weather and Forecasting 27, no. 2 (April 1, 2012): 301–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-11-00069.1.

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Abstract This paper describes an extension of an operational consensus forecasting (OCF) scheme from site forecasts to gridded forecasts. OCF is a multimodel consensus scheme including bias correction and weighting. Bias correction and weighting are done on a scale common to almost all multimodel inputs (1.25°), which are then downscaled using a statistical approach to an approximately 5-km-resolution grid. Local and international numerical weather prediction model inputs are found to have coarse scale biases that respond to simple bias correction, with the weighted average consensus at 1.25° outperforming all models at that scale. Statistical downscaling is found to remove the systematic representativeness error when downscaling from 1.25° to 5 km, though it cannot resolve scale differences associated with transient small-scale weather.

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Miller, Paul W., and Thomas L. Mote. "Characterizing severe weather potential in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm environments." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 4 (April 27, 2018): 1261–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1261-2018.

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Abstract. Weakly forced thunderstorms (WFTs), short-lived convection forming in synoptically quiescent regimes, are a contemporary forecasting challenge. The convective environments that support severe WFTs are often similar to those that yield only non-severe WFTs and, additionally, only a small proportion of individual WFTs will ultimately produce severe weather. The purpose of this study is to better characterize the relative severe weather potential in these settings as a function of the convective environment. Thirty-one near-storm convective parameters for > 200 000 WFTs in the Southeastern United States are calculated from a high-resolution numerical forecasting model, the Rapid Refresh (RAP). For each parameter, the relative odds of WFT days with at least one severe weather event is assessed along a moving threshold. Parameters (and the values of them) that reliably separate severe-weather-supporting from non-severe WFT days are highlighted. Only two convective parameters, vertical totals (VTs) and total totals (TTs), appreciably differentiate severe-wind-supporting and severe-hail-supporting days from non-severe WFT days. When VTs exceeded values between 24.6 and 25.1 ∘C or TTs between 46.5 and 47.3 ∘C, odds of severe-wind days were roughly 5× greater. Meanwhile, odds of severe-hail days became roughly 10× greater when VTs exceeded 24.4–26.0 ∘C or TTs exceeded 46.3–49.2 ∘C. The stronger performance of VT and TT is partly attributed to the more accurate representation of these parameters in the numerical model. Under-reporting of severe weather and model error are posited to exacerbate the forecasting challenge by obscuring the subtle convective environmental differences enhancing storm severity.

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Anonymous. "Peer review report 1 On “Forecasting Daily Reference Evapotranspiration for Australia using Numerical Weather Prediction outputs”." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 201 (January 2015): 634–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.08.204.

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Zhang, Yongguang. "Peer review report 2 On “Forecasting Daily Reference Evapotranspiration for Australia using Numerical Weather Prediction outputs”." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 201 (January 2015): 438. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.08.205.

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Moscatello, Agata, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Richard Rotunno. "Numerical Analysis of a Mediterranean “Hurricane” over Southeastern Italy." Monthly Weather Review 136, no. 11 (November 1, 2008): 4373–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008mwr2512.1.

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Abstract The presence of a subsynoptic-scale vortex over the Mediterranean Sea in southeastern Italy on 26 September 2006 has been recently documented by the authors. The transit of the cyclone over land allowed an accurate diagnosis of the structure of the vortex, based on radar and surface station data, showing that the cyclone had features similar to those observed in tropical cyclones. To investigate the cyclone in greater depth, numerical simulations have been performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, set up with two domains, in a two-way-nested configuration. Model simulations are able to properly capture the timing and intensity of the small-scale cyclone. Moreover, the present simulated cyclone agrees with the observational analysis of this case, identifying in this small-scale depression the typical characteristics of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone. An analysis of the mechanisms responsible for the genesis, development, and maintenance of the cyclone has also been performed. Sensitivity experiments show that cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains is responsible for the generation of the cyclone. Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes become important during the subsequent phase of development in which the lee-vortex shallow depression evolved as it moved toward the south of Sicily. During this phase, the latent heating, associated with convective motions triggered by a cold front entering the central Mediterranean area, was important for the intensification and contraction of the horizontal scale of the vortex. The small-scale cyclone subsequently deepened as it moved over the Ionian Sea and then maintained its intensity during its later transit over the Adriatic Sea; in this later stage, latent heat release continued to play a major role in amplifying and maintaining the vortex, while the importance of the surface fluxes diminished.

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Books on the topic "Numerical weather forecasting Australia, Southeastern"

1

CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation. Session. Report of the sixth session of the CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation: Melbourne, Australia, 24-28 September 1990. [Geneva, Switzerland]: World Meteorological Organization, 1991.

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Conference papers on the topic "Numerical weather forecasting Australia, Southeastern"

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Huang, Jing, Lawrence Rikus, and Yi Qin. "Probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting using numerical weather prediction ensembles over Australia." In 2020 IEEE 47th Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/pvsc45281.2020.9300836.

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"Forecasting daily reference evapotranspiration for Shepparton, Victoria, Australia using numerical weather prediction outputs." In 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ), Inc., 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.l16.perera.

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