Journal articles on the topic 'New risk analyses'
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Reid, Ian R., and Mark J. Bolland. "Calcium risk–benefit updated—New WHI analyses." Maturitas 77, no. 1 (January 2014): 1–3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.maturitas.2013.10.003.
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Szádeczky, Tamás. "Risk Management of New Technologies." Academic and Applied Research in Military and Public Management Science 15, no. 3 (December 31, 2016): 279–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.32565/aarms.2016.3.8.
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Nowadays businesses face multiple issues regarding new phenomena like cloud computing, which is a great business impetus: with the minimization of capital expenditure (CapEx) on IT infrastructure and personnel the efficiency can be improved. Technically this is not a new invention, but it is changing the approach to IT service, which has become outsourced, highly adaptive and scalable. Of course, the change in the technical landscape always implies security issues. Information security is not just a set of technical countermeasures: it is also a business requirement. It will help to avoid financial loss, avoid bad reputation or increase trust among clients.The article analyses business alignment of information security in the case of cloud services. It shows the results of research, where the theoretical and practical issues of risk assessment-based business decision support were analysed and proved. Its finding was that there are cases when we can do examination, but general automatized tools are inadequate. However specialized tools and sometimes third party certifications should give more support.
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Weart, C. Wayne. "New analyses of pancreatitis risk with incretin-based therapies." Pharmacy Today 20, no. 7 (July 2014): 17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1042-0991(15)30773-8.
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&NA;. "Third-generation OCs: increased VTE risk supported by new analyses." Inpharma Weekly &NA;, no. 1264 (November 2000): 21. http://dx.doi.org/10.2165/00128413-200012640-00050.
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&NA;. "Increased VTE risk of third-generation OCs supported by new analyses." Reactions Weekly &NA;, no. 828 (November 2000): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.2165/00128415-200008280-00004.
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Slooten, E., and N. Davies. "Hector's dolphin risk assessments: old and new analyses show consistent results." Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand 42, no. 1 (September 29, 2011): 49–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03036758.2011.606820.
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Depietri, Yaella, Khila Dahal, and Timon McPhearson. "Multi-hazard risks in New York City." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 12 (December 21, 2018): 3363–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3363-2018.
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Abstract. Megacities are predominantly concentrated along coastlines, making them exposed to a diverse mix of natural hazards. The assessment of climatic hazard risk to cities rarely has captured the multiple interactions that occur in complex urban systems. We present an improved method for urban multi-hazard risk assessment. We then analyze the risk of New York City as a case study to apply enhanced methods for multi-hazard risk assessment given the history of exposure to multiple types of natural hazards which overlap spatially and, in some cases, temporally in this coastal megacity. Our aim is to identify hotspots of multi-hazard risk to support the prioritization of adaptation strategies that can address multiple sources of risk to urban residents. We used socioeconomic indicators to assess vulnerabilities and risks to three climate-related hazards (i.e., heat waves, inland flooding and coastal flooding) at high spatial resolution. The analysis incorporates local experts' opinions to identify sources of multi-hazard risk and to weight indicators used in the multi-hazard risk assessment. Results demonstrate the application of multi-hazard risk assessment to a coastal megacity and show that spatial hotspots of multi-hazard risk affect similar local residential communities along the coastlines. Analyses suggest that New York City should prioritize adaptation in coastal zones and consider possible synergies and/or trade-offs to maximize impacts of adaptation and resilience interventions in the spatially overlapping areas at risk of impacts from multiple hazards.
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Kriaa, Siwar, Marc Bouissou, and Youssef Laarouchi. "A new safety and security risk analysis framework for industrial control systems." Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 233, no. 2 (April 19, 2018): 151–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x18765885.
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The migration of modern industrial control systems toward information and communication technologies exposes them to cyber-attacks that can alter the way they function, thereby causing adverse consequences on the system and its environment. It has consequently become crucial to consider security risks in traditional safety risk analyses for industrial systems controlled by modern industrial control system. We propose in this article a new framework for safety and security joint risk analysis for industrial control systems. S-cube (for supervisory control and data acquisition safety and security joint modeling) is a new model-based approach that enables, thanks to a knowledge base, formal modeling of the physical and functional architecture of cyber-physical systems and automatic generation of a qualitative and quantitative analysis encompassing safety risks (accidental) and security risks (malicious). We first give the principle and rationale of S-cube and then we illustrate its inputs and outputs on a case study.
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Oliveira, Mónica D., Carlos A. Bana e Costa, and Diana F. Lopes. "Designing and exploring risk matrices with MACBETH." International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making 17, no. 01 (January 2018): 45–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219622015500170.
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Risk matrices are adopted and recommended by many organizations, but the way they are usually constructed violates some basic theoretical principles, giving rise to inconsistent risk ratings. This paper studies ways in which multiple criteria and portfolio decision analyses can improve the design and deployment of risk matrices, using MACBETH (the “Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation TecHnique”). Firstly, it introduces ‘value risk-matrices’, built with MACBETH in the following modeling steps: (1) building a value measurement scale on each impact dimension and constructing a subjective probability scale, (2) additive aggregation of the value scales into a cumulative value scale, and (3) design of the value risk-matrix. The value and probability scores of risks are plotted in the matrix and its analysis informs the identification of mitigation actions, which can then be prioritized making use of the recent portfolio module of the MACBETH decision support system. Taken all together, the paper sketches a new modeling approach for Improving Risk Matrice s (IRIS).
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Burnett, T. L. "Petroleum Exploration Risk Reduction Using New Geoscience Technology." Energy Exploration & Exploitation 14, no. 6 (December 1996): 507–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/014459879601400602.
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As economics of the oil and gas industry become more restrictive, the need for new means of improving exploration risks and reducing expenses is becoming more acute. Partnerships between industry and academia are making significant improvements in four general areas: Seismic acquisition, reservoir characterization, quantitative structural modeling, and geochemical inversion. In marine seismic acquisition the vertical cable concept utilizes hydrophones suspended at fixed locations vertically within the water column by buoys. There are numerous advantages of vertical cable technology over conventional 3-D seismic acquisition. In a related methodology, ‘Borehole Seismic,’ seismic energy is passed between wells and valuable information on reservoir geometry, porosity, lithology, and oil saturation is extracted from the P-wave and S-wave data. In association with seismic methods of determining the external geometry and the internal properties of a reservoir, 3-dimensional sedimentation-simulation models, based on physical, hydrologic, erosional and transport processes, are being utilized for stratigraphic analysis. In addition, powerful, 1-D, coupled reaction-transport models are being used to simulate diagenesis processes in reservoir rocks. At the regional scale, the bridging of quantitative structural concepts with seismic interpretation has lead to breakthroughs in structural analysis, particularly in complex terrains. Such analyses are becoming more accurate and cost effective when tied to highly advanced, remote-sensing, multi-spectral data acquisition and image processing technology. Emerging technology in petroleum geochemistry enables geoscientists to infer the character, age, maturity, identity and location of source rocks from crude oil characteristics (‘Geochemical Inversion’) and to better estimate hydrocarbon-supply volumetrics, which can be invaluable in understanding petroleum systems and in reducing exploration risks and associated expenses.
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Xing, Mindan, and Jia Li. "A New Inflammation-Related Risk Model for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prognosis." BioMed Research International 2022 (May 5, 2022): 1–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/5396128.
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Background. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is characterized by a poor prognosis. Inflammation has a vital role in the formation and development of HCC. However, the prediction of HCC prognosis using inflammation-related genes (IRGs) remains elusive. In this study, we constructed a new IRG risk model to predict the HCC prognosis. Results. HCC-related RNA expression profiles and their corresponding clinical data were downloaded from TCGA and ICGC databases to explore the IRGs’ predicting ability. Seven hundred thirty-seven IRGs from GeneCards were used as candidate genes to construct the model. The associations of overall survival (OS) with IRGs were evaluated using the log-rank test and univariate Cox analysis, and 32 out of 737 IRGs showed predicting the potential for HCC prognosis. These IRGs were further analyzed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate Cox analyses. Finally, 6 IRGs were included in an IRG risk model. Based on the cut-off of the risk score calculated according to the IRG risk model, HCC samples were divided into the high-risk and the low-risk groups. The OS of patients was lower in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group ( P < 0.05 ). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the risk score was 0.78 for 3-year survival. Univariate Cox and multivariate Cox analyses revealed that the risk score was an independent risk factor for HCC prognosis. The KEGG and GO enrichment analysis results further showed that the risk scores were closely related to inflammatory and immune pathways. In addition, the ssGSEA demonstrated that several immune cells and some immune-related pathways were negatively correlated with the risk score. Conclusions. The new IRG risk score was an independent risk factor for HCC prognosis and could be used to assess the immune status of the HCC microenvironment.
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Kim, Young-Hoon, Chi Heon Kim, June Sic Kim, Sang Kun Lee, Jung Ho Han, Chae-Yong Kim, and Chun Kee Chung. "Topographical Risk Factor Analysis of New Neurological Deficits Following Precentral Gyrus Resection." Neurosurgery 76, no. 6 (March 2, 2015): 714–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1227/neu.0000000000000712.
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Abstract BACKGROUND: Precentral gyrus resections (PGRs) have been regarded as excessively hazardous interventions because of the risk of postoperative major neurological complications. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the neurological deterioration that follows PGRs and to assess the topographical risk factors associated with these morbidities. METHODS: We reviewed 33 consecutive patients who experienced pharmacologically intractable epilepsy and underwent PGR with intraoperative cortical stimulation and mapping while under awake anesthesia. The etiological diagnoses were brain neoplasm in 26 patients (78.8%), cortical lesion in 4 (12.1%), and no lesion in 3 (9.1%). The mean follow-up period was 62.6 months (range, 12-146 months). All topographical analyses of the resected quadrant area were performed based on postoperative magnetic resonance images. RESULTS: After PGR, 22 patients (66.7%) experienced neurological worsening, including 5 permanent deficits (15.2%) and 17 transient deficits (51.5%). Permanent deficits included 2 instances of weakness, 1 dysarthria, 1 dysesthesia, and 1 fine-movement disturbance of the hand. While the neurological risk for anterior lower quadrant PGR was 20.0% (1/5), the risk for posterior upper quadrant PGR was 100.0% (10/10). The anterior upper and posterior lower quadrant PGR caused neurological deteriorations in 60.0% (6/10) and 62.5% (5/8) of the patients, respectively. In a multivariate analysis, PGR of the posterior and upper quadrant sections were significant risk factors for post-PGR neurological deteriorations (P = .022 and 0.030, respectively). CONCLUSION: The posterior upper quadrant of the precentral gyrus was vulnerable to post-resective neurological impairment.
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Gujarathi, Mahendra R. "Do New Equity Issues Fetch Extranormal Returns?" Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers 12, no. 4 (October 1987): 43–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0256090919870406.
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Do new equity issues earn attractive returns after adjusting their risk? To answer this question, Gujarathi analyses empirical data on 98 randomly selected new security issues made between 1970 and 1978. He considers the returns from the date of the closure of the subscription list to the date of its first market quotation. Gujarathi's analysis shows that an average investor earned an attractive extranormal return of 2.44 per cent per month after adjusting for the risk and the time value of money. He has also tested many of the popular beliefs of investors.
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Diederichs, Mark S., and Peter K. Kaiser. "Rock instability and risk analyses in open stope mine design." Canadian Geotechnical Journal 33, no. 3 (July 2, 1996): 431–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/t96-064.
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Modern underground mining methods often call for the excavation of large, often unsupported voids called stopes. In many cases, these are nonentry stopes, with the removal of broken rock (mucking) performed by remote control. With the risk to human safety thus reduced, stability concerns within the stopes are primarily driven by the economics of unplanned overbreak and waste rock dilution of the mined ore. In this context, it is appropriate to speak of acceptable risks of instability and to optimize design by balancing risk costes with productivity potential. Larger individual stopes generally increase productivity while reducing stability. The modified stability graph is a popular empirical mine design tool that has been calibrated to provide discrete recommendations for maximum stope dimensions based on a rock quality index. It seems appropriate to extend the method to account for variability in the calibration data and also for variability in each new set of input parameters. A risk template and associated probabilistic techniques are proposed to supplement the discrete design limits currently established. Key words: risk, mining, stability, design, emperical.
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Lanz, Luciano Quinto, and Patricia Amelia Tomei. "Managing Risks and Stakeholders in the Design of a new Financial Product." International Journal of Innovation 4, no. 2 (June 9, 2016): 59–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5585/iji.v4i2.89.
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This article analyses risk’ and stakeholders’ management in the project to establish a product created by BNDES to provide partial credit guarantees for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), the Investment Guarantee Fund (FGI). The project went through several adjustments during its development to adapt it to changes in the credit market, the demands of financial agents and credit access’ public policy. For this analysis were used risk management models, stakeholder management in projects and guarantee systems. The methodology used was the single case study with the fund manager, with document analysis and semi-structured interviews. The results of the analysis indicate that the corrections in the direction and the adequacy of the fund project development pace, together with stakeholder management techniques use and project risk management, led to increased security in the Fund implementation, minimizing the need for rework and schedule delays. This context prevented several risks associated with the operation and the adequacy of the final product, contributing to a gradual but steady adoption of the Fund's guarantee by financial agents.
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Skapa, Stanislav. "Commodities as a Tool of Risk Diversification." Equilibrium 8, no. 2 (June 30, 2013): 65–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/equil.2013.014.
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Investing in commodities has become a new topic for private investors in recent years. Private investors are trying to spread their investments across a much wider spectrum of investments than in the past. They are looking for new sources of return and better diversification of investment risk. In this process, they are searching beyond the traditional asset classes of equities, bonds, cash and real estate. The objective of the paper is to critically explore the possibility of investing in commodities mainly for private investors and analyses investment characteristics. The main scientific aim is to use a complex of more sophisticated and theoretically advanced statistical techniques and apply them on the findings. This paper will provide comprehensive analyses of mostly used commodity indexes of 1st generation and describe main differences between 1st and 2nd generation of commodity indexes and some examples of rollover mechanism will be critically explain. A representative of 2nd generation of commodity indexes was chosen for comprehensive data analysis to another asset class and for the testing whether commodities decreasing a risk of investment portfolio.
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TURSOY, Turgut, and Niyazi BERK. "Stock Return and Risk Premium: Evidence from Turkey." Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance 11, no. 1 (August 9, 2020): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.14505//jasf.v11.1(21).01.
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The finance theory suggests that there might be a relationship between the stock return and the risk premium. Theoretically, stock return defined as the change of the market price, and it is related to the scope of the financial system, which is consisting of the financial institution and financial markets. The way, possibly will be, to contribute the existing literature is to propose a new measurement and this study try to do so.
The aim of this study and its motivation is that investigates a new measure of stock return and attempt to establish a new relationship between return and risk premium. To realise this aim, this study uses geometric mean to calculate return and standard deviation, and after all, apply panel data analysis to investigate the return and standard deviation relationship. In this study, seven commercial banks’ data analysed to the relationship between return and standard deviation with panel data analyses between 1991 and 2010. Also, the geometric mean and value relative concept used to estimate return and the monthly stock prices to yearly basis.
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Büchele, B., H. Kreibich, A. Kron, A. Thieken, J. Ihringer, P. Oberle, B. Merz, and F. Nestmann. "Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 6, no. 4 (June 12, 2006): 485–503. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-485-2006.
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Abstract. Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.
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Jonkman, Sebastiaan N., Ruben Jongejan, Bob Maaskant, and Han Vrijling. "NEW SAFETY STANDARDS FOR COASTAL FLOOD DEFENCES IN THE NETHERLANDS." Coastal Engineering Proceedings 1, no. 32 (January 19, 2011): 11. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.management.11.
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The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defences in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two risk metrics, individual and societal risk, to support decision-making about new flood safety standards. These risk metrics are already used in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of risks to the public. Individual risk concerns the annual probability of death of a person. Societal risk concerns the probability of an event with many fatalities. Technical aspects of the use of individual and societal risk metrics in flood risk assessments as well as policy implications are discussed. Preliminary estimates of nationwide levels of societal risk are presented. Societal risk levels appear relatively high in the South Western part of the country where densely populated dike rings are threatened by a combination of river and coastal floods. Options for the application of the individual and societal risk in the new flood safety policy are presented and discussed.
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Room, Robin. "Alcohol as a public health risk: New evidence demands a stronger global response." International Journal of Alcohol and Drug Research 2, no. 1 (March 4, 2013): 7–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.7895/ijadr.v2i1.134.
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Room. R. (2013). Alcohol as a public health risk: New evidence demands a stronger global response. International Journal of Alcohol and Drug Research, 2(1), 7-9. doi: 10.7895/ijadr.v2i1.134 (http://dx.doi.org/10.7895/ijadr.v2i1.134)Alcohol ranks third as a risk factor for health in the Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) in the Global Burden of Disease analyses for 2010. New analyses of alcohol’s role in tuberculosis and in the course of HIV/AIDS add diseases especially important in low- and middle-income countries to the picture. A meta-analysis of price elasticity of alcohol in such countries draws together evidence relevant to a policy response, while illuminating the thinness of coverage for much of the world. Alcohol is arguably the most complex risk factor, with links to more than 200 ICD codes. The abundance of alcohol references in the report of the CRA study reflects the strength and breadth of the findings on alcohol’s adverse effects on health. The CRA findings point to the need for a stronger global public health response on alcohol issues.
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Arel-Bundock, Vincent, Clint Peinhardt, and Amy Pond. "Political Risk Insurance: A New Firm-level Data Set." Journal of Conflict Resolution 64, no. 5 (September 8, 2019): 987–1006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002719875754.
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When do governments impose costs on foreign firms? Many studies of foreign direct investment focus on incentives for government expropriation, but scholars are often forced to rely on indirect measures of expropriation to conduct empirical analyses. This article introduces a data set which includes information on over 5,000 political risk insurance contracts issued by the US Overseas Private Investment Corporation since 1961, and on all the claims filed by investors under these contracts. These detailed insurance data allow us to study the determinants of foreign investors’ losses from a variety of sources, including expropriation, inconvertibility, and violent conflict. To illustrate the benefits of these data for hypothesis testing, we adopt a comprehensive empirical approach and explore both shared and distinct causes across risk categories.
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Coulmont, Michel, Sylvie Berthelot, and Caroline Talbot. "Risk disclosure and firm risk: Evidence from Canadian firms." Risk Governance and Control: Financial Markets and Institutions 10, no. 1 (2020): 52–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/rgcv10i1p4.
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In recent decades, financial and accounting regulators have turned the spotlight on risk management and disclosure. Like securities regulators in the United States, the United Kingdom and several other countries, Canadian Securities Administrators have set out requirements for the disclosure and discussion of risks in the MD&A section of annual reports. Responding positively to these new guidelines, organisations now report many risks in their MD&A. These disclosure requirements are intended to provide information about a company’s material risks to help stakeholders understand and evaluate interrelated risks, the risks’ impact and the company’s risk management strategies (Khandelwal, Kumar, Verma, & Pratap Singh, 2019). However, since the nature of the risks disclosed derives wholly from organisational decisions, the content of these disclosures can be considered voluntary. For this reason, some critics argue that risk disclosures are by and large boilerplate in nature (Bao & Datta, 2014; Hope, Hu, & Lu, 2016). From this perspective, this study aims to examine whether there is a relationship between the risks firms disclose in their annual reports and their systematic risk. The regression analyses were carried out on the risks disclosed by a sample of 200 Canadian companies included in the 2016 Toronto Stock Exchange S&P/TSX Composite Index. These analyses revealed a positive and significant relationship between the risks disclosed and the firms’ systematic risk. Our results support the regulatory approaches respecting this type of information adopted by a number of countries. Accordingly, disclosing the risks that companies face should help small investors understand and appreciate them.
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Kilercik, Meltem, Özlem Demirelce, Muhittin Abdulkadir Serdar, Parvana Mikailova, and Mustafa Serteser. "A new haematocytometric index: Predicting severity and mortality risk value in COVID-19 patients." PLOS ONE 16, no. 8 (August 5, 2021): e0254073. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254073.
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Introduction Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus, is a major public health concern spanning from healthy carriers to patients with life-threatening conditions. Although most of COVID-19 patients have mild-to-moderate clinical symptoms, some patients have severe pneumonia leading to death. Therefore, the early prediction of disease prognosis and severity is crucial in COVID-19 patients. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the haemocytometric parameters and identify severity score associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods Clinical and laboratory records were retrospectively reviewed from 97 cases of COVID-19 admitted to hospitals in Istanbul, Turkey. The patient groups were subdivided into three major groups: Group 1 (Non-critical): 59 patients, Group 2 (Critical-Survivors): 23 patients and Group 3 (Critical-Non-survivors):15 patients. These data was tested for correlation, including with derived haemocytometric parameters. The blood analyses were performed the Sysmex XN-series automated hematology analyser using standard laboratory protocols. All statistical testing was undertaken using Analyse-it software. Results 97 patients with COVID-19 disease and 935 sequential complete blood count (CBC-Diff) measurements (days 0–30) were included in the final analyses. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that red cell distribution width (RDW) (>13.7), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (4.4), Hemoglobin (Hgb) (<11.4 gr/dL) and monocyte to neutrophil ratio (MNR) (0.084) had the highest area under curve (AUC) values, respectively in discrimination critical patients than non-critical patients. In determining Group 3, MNR (<0.095), NLR (>5.2), Plateletcount (PLT) (>142 x103/L) and RDW (>14) were important haemocytometric parameters, and the mortality risk value created by their combination had the highest AUC value (AUC = 0.911, 95% CI, 0886–0.931). Trend analysis of CBC-Diff parameters over 30 days of hospitalization, NLR on day 2, MNR on day 4, RDW on day 6 and PLT on day 7 of admission were found to be the best time related parameters in discrimination non-critical (mild-moderate) patient group from critical (severe and non-survivor) patient group. Conclusion NLR is a strong predictor for the prognosis for severe COVID-19 patients when the cut-off chosen was 4.4, the combined mortality risk factor COVID-19 disease generated from RDW-CV, NLR, MNR and PLT is best as a mortality haematocytometric index.
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Hendriksma, Harmen P., Stephan Härtel, and Ingolf Steffan-Dewenter. "Honey bee risk assessment: new approaches for in vitro larvae rearing and data analyses." Methods in Ecology and Evolution 2, no. 5 (March 21, 2011): 509–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210x.2011.00099.x.
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Cibulka, Viliam. "Holistic Analysis and Risk Assessment of an Industrial Organization Processes." Applied Mechanics and Materials 474 (January 2014): 21–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.474.21.
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In the paper there is presented a new holistic approach to an analysis and assessment of organization processes risks by an application of dynamic modelling. It relates to a procedure, allowing to make provision for and to ensure, in addition to characteristic mutual relationship in organization processes with partners, also their dynamics and indefiniteness of the environment, multicriterial assessment of processes, and a general optimization from a point of defined indicators, an aggregate analyses and assessment of organization processes risks. By help of such process there are firstly optimized all process variants of organisation. We can consider this as an added value, because the manager is disposing with results of holistic analysis and assessment of organization and process risks that means gaining of reliable information about potential risks (threats and opportunities) of an organization processes and resulting to some consequences including the opportunities. The information gained in such way results in many cases in a draft of new variants (innovations) of organization processes, by which the identified and evaluated risks are eliminated or application of an efficient strategies suggestion for their elimination. Holistic approach to an organization processes modelling has been applied on some selected manufacturing organizations, resulting in reliable results of risk analyses and assessment.
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Lwambo, N. J. S., D. A. P. Bundy, and G. F. H. Medley. "A new approach to morbidity risk assessment in hookworm endemic communities." Epidemiology and Infection 108, no. 3 (June 1992): 469–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0950268800049980.
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SUMMARYThe relationship between paired hookworm prevalence and mean intensity of infection data from geographically defined communities was examined. The results show that, in spite of major socio-economic and environmental differences between communities, the relationship is consistent and non-linear. A generalized value of k (the exponent of the negative binomial distribution) for hookworms was estimated to be 0.34, which is consonant with previous estimates from cross-sectional data. Maximum likelihood analysis indicates that the severity of hookworm aggregation in humans has an inverse relationship to mean worm burden which is less marked than for Ascaris lumbricoides. A simple model, based on published estimates of hookworm burdens associated with hookworm anaemia, was used to predict prevalence of morbidity from prevalence of infection data for Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia. Predictions correspond to the observation that hookworm anaemia is highly focal, and largely coastal, in distribution. These analyses suggest that locality-targeting of chemotherapy is particularly appropriate for the control of hookworm morbidity.
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Wang, Fa-Cai, Wei Chang, Song-Liu Nie, Bing-Xiang Shen, Chun-Yuan He, Wei-Chen Zhao, Xiao-Yan Liu, and Jing-Tao Lu. "Predicting medication nonadherence risk in the Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus population – establishment of a new risk nomogram model: a retrospective study." Journal of International Medical Research 49, no. 9 (September 2021): 030006052110425. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/03000605211042502.
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Objective To investigate the risk factors of medication nonadherence in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to establish a risk nomogram model. Methods This retrospective study enrolled patients with T2DM, which were divided into two groups based on their scores on the Morisky Medication Adherence scale. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen for independent risk factors for medication nonadherence. A risk model was then established using a nomogram. The accuracy of the prediction model was evaluated using centrality measurement index and receiver operating characteristic curves. Internal verification was evaluated using bootstrapping validation. Results A total of 338 patients with T2DM who included in the analysis. Logistic regression analysis showed that the educational level, monthly per capita income, drug affordability, the number of drugs used, daily doses of drugs and the time spent taking medicine were all independent risk factors for medication nonadherence. Based on these six risk factors, a nomogram model was established to predict the risk of medication nonadherence, which was shown to be very reliable. Bootstrapping validated the nonadherence nomogram model for patients with T2DM. Conclusions This nomogram model could be used to evaluate the risks of drug nonadherence in patients with T2DM.
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Nazal, Abdullah Ibrahim. "Problem of Companies Financial Analyses Derivatives Evaluation." JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH 5, no. 2 (September 30, 2014): 717–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.24297/jssr.v5i2.3359.
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This article concentrates on derivatives evaluation in financial report. As result to search, derivatives have negative affection and positive affection practically. Derivatives have cost in current time but return in future is not clear because of expecting possibility. In spite of its cost it must give value to increase assets value or reduce liabilities value or reduce cost or reduce tax or make profit at time of making financial report. Negative affection comes from transfer risk of loss which transfers loosing responsibility it added new type of risk. By comparing between derivatives and traditional choices to face risk, there is different in evaluation as result to degree of responsibility, source of its value, Liquidity, currency risk, product market price risk, credit risk and linked with other selling contract risk. Searcher recommended to reduce ignorance by explains the real looser and looser ability to buy loss which limit derivatives transfer loss in order to make financial report useful. Its difficulty comes from promising to give product and promising to buy price in future regardless of loss which needs grantee to apply promising or give suitable compensation. Some things consider as standards may not accept expecting rules for pricing as some currencies price which just apply by monetary policy.
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Némethy, Sándor, and Björn A. Malmgren. "Microfossil vacuum picker—a new tool for micropaleontologists." Journal of Paleontology 66, no. 4 (July 1992): 689–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022336000024586.
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A considerable part of micropaleontological work consists of picking microfossils for various types of analyses. Physical removal of specimens from a sample is necessary, for example, in morphometric, stable isotope, geochemical, and molecular studies of microfossils. The traditional method for picking microfossils involves transfer of each specimen from the picking tray to a slide using a moistened brush or a needle. This process requires a great deal of time and the risk of losing or damaging the specimen on the way from the picking tray to the slide is apparent. Furthermore, in geochemical analyses, the use of a moistened brush or needle for picking considerably increases the risk of contamination by undesirable organic substances, such as amino acids and polysaccharids. The brush-licking practised by some micropaleontologists results in anthropogenic contamination, which affects the results of molecular micropaleontologic analyses. We present a simple and effective device for microfossil picking, which may save about 60 percent of the time devoted to picking microfossils and prevent contamination during preparation.
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Klumpes, P., C. Ledlie, F. Fahey, G. Kakar, and S. Styles. "Incentives facing UK-listed companies to comply with the risk reporting provisions of the UK Corporate Governance Code." British Actuarial Journal 22, no. 1 (November 15, 2016): 127–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1357321716000180.
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AbstractRecent changes made to the UK Corporate Governance Code require UK firms to report new or enhanced narrative information concerning their principal risks, their risk management processes and their future viability. This paper analyses whether the level and nature of voluntary compliance with these new requirements is consistent with alternative economic and political visibility incentives. We analyse relevant sections of financial reports produced by industry-matched samples of large-, mid- and small-cap UK-listed firms during the transitional 2013–2014 financial reporting years. Both specific and generic readability attributes of the reports are measured. We find that virtually no firm in our sample has provided any viability statement. Empirical analysis of disclosures concerning principal risk assessment and review processes appear to be primarily motivated by political visibility reasons. Examples of particularly good and cases of poor corporate risk reporting practices are also discussed. Possible implications for the actuarial profession are discussed.
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van Doorn-Hoekveld, Willemijn, and Frank Groothuijse. "Analysis of the Strengths and Weaknesses of Dutch Water Storage Areas as a Legal Instrument for Flood-risk Prevention." Journal for European Environmental & Planning Law 14, no. 1 (April 21, 2017): 76–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/18760104-01401005.
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New flood risks require a new flood risk management approach. In the Netherlands there has always been a strong focus on flood defence. However, flood defence in the form of dikes alone will not be sufficient to keep the Netherlands habitable in the future. The ‘Room for Water’ debate has led to a new legal instrument: water storage areas, which fits perfectly in one of the requirements of the Floods Directive. This relatively new instrument has its own legal framework that is embedded in water law as well as in spatial planning law. This paper analyses the legal framework of the Dutch water storage areas in order to provide a swot analysis that may serve other states that aim to improve their flood risk management strategies.
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Novak, Oksana, Oleksandr Melnychenko, and Oksana Oliinyk. "Improving the regulation of the derivatives market as an objective prerequisite for sustainable development of the global financial system." E3S Web of Conferences 307 (2021): 02002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202130702002.
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The development of financial markets is characterized by the emergence of new financial instruments, in particular derivatives, the risk level analysis of which is complicated. Counterparties are not always fully aware of and do not adequately assess the potential risks of derivatives, which may lead to large financial losses and sometimes bankruptcies. The purpose of the study is to generalize approaches to regulating derivative markets and analyse the adequacy of regulatory influence to ensure sustainable development of the global financial system. The article analyses the approaches of scientists and regulators of the USA and the EU to the regulation of the derivatives market before and after the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Prior to the crisis, most scholars took a liberal approach to derivatives market regulation and recommended monitoring new instruments and not restricting their circulation in any way, emphasizing that effective counterparty risk management and their propensity for self-preservation can prevent excessive risk-taking. The authors analyse the potential risks of derivatives and conclude that exchange-traded derivatives can cause similar processes of liquidity crisis, and, therefore, need additional regulatory tools to ensure the stability of the financial system
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Yin, Xiaoyan, Subha Subramanian, Shih-Jen Hwang, Christopher J. O’Donnell, Caroline S. Fox, Paul Courchesne, Pieter Muntendam, et al. "Protein Biomarkers of New-Onset Cardiovascular Disease." Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology 34, no. 4 (April 2014): 939–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/atvbaha.113.302918.
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Objective— Incorporation of novel plasma protein biomarkers may improve current models for prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Approach and Results— We used discovery mass spectrometry (MS) to determine plasma concentrations of 861 proteins in 135 myocardial infarction (MI) cases and 135 matched controls. Then, we measured 59 markers by targeted MS in 336 ASCVD case–control pairs. Associations with MI or ASCVD were tested in single-marker and multiple-marker analyses adjusted for established ASCVD risk factors. Twelve single markers from discovery MS were associated with MI incidence (at P <0.01), adjusting for clinical risk factors. Seven proteins in aggregate (cyclophilin A, cluster of differentiation 5 molecule [CD5] antigen-like, cell-surface glycoprotein mucin cell surface associated protein 18 [MUC-18], collagen-α 1 [XVIII] chain, salivary α-amylase 1, C-reactive protein, and multimerin-2) were highly associated with MI ( P <0.0001) and significantly improved its prediction compared with a model with clinical risk factors alone (C-statistic of 0.71 versus 0.84). Through targeted MS, 12 single proteins were predictors of ASCVD (at P <0.05) after adjusting for established risk factors. In multiple-marker analyses, 4 proteins in combination (α-1–acid glycoprotein 1, paraoxonase 1, tetranectin, and CD5 antigen-like) predicted incident ASCVD ( P <0.0001) and moderately improved the C-statistic from the model with clinical covariates alone (C-statistic of 0.69 versus 0.73). Conclusions— Proteomics profiling identified single- and multiple-marker protein panels that are associated with new-onset ASCVD and may lead to a better understanding of underlying disease mechanisms. Our findings include many novel protein biomarkers that, if externally validated, may improve risk assessment for MI and ASCVD.
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de Vilder, Saskia, Chris Massey, Biljana Lukovic, Tony Taig, and Regine Morgenstern. "What drives landslide risk? Disaggregating risk analyses, an example from the Franz Josef Glacier and Fox Glacier valleys, New Zealand." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 7 (July 13, 2022): 2289–316. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2289-2022.
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Abstract. We present a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) case study from the Kā Roimata o Hine Hukatere / Franz Josef Glacier and Te Moeka o Tuawe / Fox Glacier valleys, on the west coast of the South Island, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The glacier valleys are important tourist destinations that are subject to landslide hazards. Both valleys contain actively retreating glaciers; experience high rainfall; and are proximal to the Alpine Fault, which is a major source of seismic hazard on the west coast. We considered the life safety risk from rockfalls, soil/rock avalanches, and flows that either are seismically triggered or occur aseismically. To determine the range in risk values and dominant contributing variables to the risk, we modelled nine different risk scenarios where we incrementally changed the variables used in the risk model to account for the underlying uncertainty. The scenarios represent our central estimate of the risk, e.g. neither optimistic nor conservative, through to our upper estimate of the risk. We include in these estimates the impact time-variable factors, such as a recently reactivated landslide, have had on locally increasing risk and the time-elapsed since the last major earthquake on the nearby Alpine Fault. We disaggregated our risk results to determine the dominant drivers in landslide risk, which highlighted the importance of considering dynamic time-variable risk scenarios and the changing contributions to risk from aseismic versus seismic landslides. A detailed understanding of the drivers of landslide risk in each valley is important to determine the most efficient and appropriate risk management decisions.
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Bognár, Ferenc, and Csaba Hegedűs. "Analysis and Consequences on Some Aggregation Functions of PRISM (Partial Risk Map) Risk Assessment Method." Mathematics 10, no. 5 (February 22, 2022): 676. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math10050676.
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The PRISM (partial risk map) methodology is a novel risk assessment method developed as the combination of the failure mode and effect analysis and risk matrix risk assessment methods. Based on the concept of partial risks, three different aggregation functions are presented for assessing incident risks. Since the different aggregation functions give different properties to the obtained PRISM numbers and threshold surfaces (convex, concave, linear), the description of these properties is carried out. Similarity analyses based on the sum of ranking differences (SRD) method and rank correlation are performed and robustness tests are applied related to the changes of the assessment scale lengths. The PRISM method provides a solution for the systematically criticized problem of the FMEA, i.e., it is not able to deal with hidden risks behind the aggregated RPN number, while the method results in an expressive tool for risk management. Applying new aggregation functions, proactive assessment can be executed, and predictions can be given related to the incidents based on the nature of their hidden risk. The method can be suggested for safety science environments where human safety, environmental protection, sustainable production, etc., are highly required.
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Bell, R., and T. Glade. "Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 4, no. 1 (March 9, 2004): 117–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-117-2004.
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Abstract. Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative landslide risk analysis the associated uncertainties are estimated qualitatively. In the study area the highest risks throughout all of the analyses (individual risk to life and object risk to life) are caused by debris flows, followed by rock falls, showing that risk heavily varies depending on the process considered. The resultant maps show areas, in which the individual risk to life exceeds the acceptable risk (defined in the aforementioned regulation), so that for these locations risk reduction measures should be developed and implemented. It can be concluded that the newly developed method works satisfactory and is applicable to further catchments in Iceland, and potentially to further countries with different environmental settings.
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Karkoszka, Tatiana. "Processes Risk Management and Continuity Assurance." Key Engineering Materials 615 (June 2014): 133–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/kem.615.133.
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Unstable technological and organisational conditions, in which nowadays organisations function, create a formation of new kinds of risk in their activity. In this scope the necessity of risk management should be noticed. It should allow for risk minimisation or elimination, finally resulting in processes’ continuity assurance. Risk management - connected with all processes in the organisation - must be realised as the system solution and undergo the improvement by the assessment, monitoring, measurement and analyses of risk. The suggested methodology of identification, analyses, assessment and acceptability evaluation determines the manner of risk undertaking. In accordance with the proposed procedure it can have character of operational control or system risk monitoring.
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Kim, Yangkyun, and Sean S. Lee. "Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Assessing Mining Subsidence Risk." Applied Sciences 10, no. 4 (February 14, 2020): 1302. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10041302.
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Subsidence at abandoned mines sometimes causes destruction of local areas and casualties. This paper proposes a mine subsidence risk index and establishes a subsidence risk grade based on two separate analyses of A and B to predict the occurrence of subsidence at an abandoned mine. For the analyses, 227 locations were ultimately selected at 15 abandoned coal mines and 22 abandoned mines of other types (i.e., gold, silver, and metal mines). Analysis A predicts whether subsidence is likely using an artificial neural network. Analysis B assesses a mine subsidence risk index that indicates the extent of risk of subsidence. Results of both analyses are utilized to assign a subsidence risk grade to each ground location investigated. To check the model’s reliability, a new dataset of 22 locations was selected from five other abandoned mines; the subsidence risk grade results were compared with those of the actual ground conditions. The resulting correct prediction percentage for 13 subsidence locations of the abandoned mines was 83–86%. To improve reliability of the subsidence risk, much more subsidence data with greater variations in ground conditions is required, and various types of analyses by numerical and empirical approaches, etc. need to be combined.
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Lee, Si-Yong, Ken Hnottavange-Telleen, Wei Jia, Ting Xiao, Hari Viswanathan, Shaoping Chu, Zhenxue Dai, Feng Pan, Brian McPherson, and Robert Balch. "Risk Assessment and Management Workflow—An Example of the Southwest Regional Partnership." Energies 14, no. 7 (March 30, 2021): 1908. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14071908.
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This paper summarizes the risk assessment and management workflow developed and applied to the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) Phase III Demonstration Project. The risk assessment and management workflow consists of six primary tasks, including management planning, identification, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, response planning, and monitoring. Within the workflow, the SWP assembled and iteratively updated a risk registry that identifies risks for all major activities of the project. Risk elements were ranked with respect to the potential impact to the project and the likelihood of occurrence. Both qualitative and quantitative risk analyses were performed. To graphically depict the interactions among risk elements and help building risk scenarios, process influence diagrams were used to represent the interactions. The SWP employed quantitative methods of risk analysis including Response Surface Method (RSM), Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), and the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) toolset. The SWP also developed risk response planning and performed risk control and monitoring to prevent the risks from affecting the project and ensure the effectiveness of risk management. As part of risk control and monitoring, existing and new risks have been tracked and the response plan was subsequently evaluated. Findings and lessons learned from the SWP’s risk assessment and management efforts will provide valuable information for other commercial geological CO2 storage projects.
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Tudoran, Cristian. "New Training Trends in High-Risk Technology Fields." Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence 14, no. 1 (July 1, 2020): 474–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2020-0045.
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AbstractThe more developed new and sophisticated technologies are, as in the energy sector, paradoxically, the more critical people are in terms of competences. A prophecy for 2020 was that machines and robots would replace people. It happened mainly for routine activities. Therefore, humans remain a crucial element in the technology world, especially in high-risk areas, such as nuclear. Companies developing, using high-risk technologies employ people with high-technical knowledge - not enough. Poor communication, failing leadership, improper management, decision reluctance, generation gap, lacking teamwork competencies were human errors that caused accidents. Besides technical competences, these people also need consistent training and workshops on soft skills, leadership, and strategy. Besides generic skills, requirements for training staff in long-life cycle technologies should consider: specific reaction patterns for various generations; the high-risk technologies are a combination of technologies with various durations, e.g., Silicon-based digital technology life cycle is about five years. However, the digital technology evolution to new ones, like quantum computing, may trigger unexpected interfaces with the underlying reactor technology, dominant in a nuclear plant, and requirements for training of staff. Extended use of the well-trained competencies can make the difference between life and death; Training? Because it is a combination of knowledge and practice; Coaching? Because it generates new behaviors in ordinary situations and improves the work-unit relationship; Leadership? Because there are moments when people need someone leading them to accomplish tasks efficiently. The methodology used to investigate such aspects was of team-group interviews for diverse generations involved in a nuclear project for risk analyses and master students, by using the same combination of training and coaching exercises. The paper presents the results of these investigations, considering the aspects mentioned and contributes to raising awareness of strategic development approaches for employees to aim at the emergence of new leaders.
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Misseri, Maxime, and Didier Lahondere. "Characterisation of chemically related asbestos amphiboles of actinolite: proposal for a specific differentiation in the diagram (Si apfu versus Mg/Mg+Fe2+)." International Journal of Metrology and Quality Engineering 9 (2018): 16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/ijmqe/2018014.
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Aggregates and rocks from quarries located in metropolitan France and New Caledonia, all likely to contain asbestiform amphiboles, were analysed by a routine laboratory (AD-LAB). Morphological observations were made using transmission electron microscopy and chemical analyses were obtained with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. The chemical analyses obtained from amphiboles were treated in such a way that they could be plotted in a diagram (Si apfu versus Mg/Mg+Fe2+). The points corresponding to analysed particles, classified as asbestos, define a broader compositional domain than that corresponding to the compositional areas of actinolite and tremolite. The creation of two new domains is proposed. Samples of basic metavolcanics and amphibolites collected by the Geological and Mining Research Bureau (BRGM) in different quarries of the Armorican Massif and the Massif Central containing calcic amphibole fibres have been the subject of polarized light microscope and electron microprobe analyses. The representative points of the spot chemical analyses performed on the very fine and ultrafine fibres are contained in the range defined previously. The diagram that has been determined from chemical analyses coupled with morphological and dimensional observations can help the “routine laboratories” to better characterise asbestiform calcic amphiboles, but it also allows comparisons with geological observations.
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Cugliari, Giovanni, Alessandra Allione, Alessia Russo, Chiara Catalano, Elisabetta Casalone, Simonetta Guarrera, Federica Grosso, et al. "New DNA Methylation Signals for Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma Risk Assessment." Cancers 13, no. 11 (May 27, 2021): 2636. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers13112636.
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Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare and aggressive neoplasm. Patients are usually diagnosed when current treatments have limited benefits, highlighting the need for noninvasive tests aimed at an MPM risk assessment tool that might improve life expectancy. Three hundred asbestos-exposed subjects (163 MPM cases and 137 cancer-free controls), from the same geographical region in Italy, were recruited. The evaluation of asbestos exposure was conducted considering the frequency, the duration and the intensity of occupational, environmental and domestic exposure. A genome-wide methylation array was performed to identify novel blood DNA methylation (DNAm) markers of MPM. Multiple regression analyses adjusting for potential confounding factors and interaction between asbestos exposure and DNAm on the MPM odds ratio were applied. Epigenome-wide analysis (EWAS) revealed 12 single-CpGs associated with the disease. Two of these showed high statistical power (99%) and effect size (>0.05) after false discovery rate (FDR) multiple comparison corrections: (i) cg03546163 in FKBP5, significantly hypomethylated in cases (Mean Difference in beta values (MD) = −0.09, 95% CI = −0.12|−0.06, p = 1.2 × 10−7), and (ii) cg06633438 in MLLT1, statistically hypermethylated in cases (MD = 0.07, 95% CI = 0.04|0.10, p = 1.0 × 10−6). Based on the interaction analysis, asbestos exposure and epigenetic profile together may improve MPM risk assessment. Above-median asbestos exposure and hypomethylation of cg03546163 in FKBP5 (OR = 20.84, 95% CI = 8.71|53.96, p = 5.5 × 10−11) and hypermethylation of cg06633438 in MLLT1 (OR = 11.71, 95% CI = 4.97|29.64, p = 5.9 × 10−8) genes compared to below-median asbestos exposure and hyper/hypomethylation of single-CpG DNAm, respectively. Receiver Operation Characteristics (ROC) for Case-Control Discrimination showed a significant increase in MPM discrimination when DNAm information was added in the model (baseline model, BM: asbestos exposure, age, gender and white blood cells); area under the curve, AUC = 0.75; BM + cg03546163 at FKBP5. AUC = 0.89, 2.1 × 10−7; BM + cg06633438 at MLLT1. AUC = 0.89, 6.3 × 10−8. Validation and replication procedures, considering independent sample size and a different DNAm analysis technique, confirmed the observed associations. Our results suggest the potential application of DNAm profiles in blood to develop noninvasive tests for MPM risk assessment in asbestos-exposed subjects.
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Narloch, Ulf, and Mook Bangalore. "The multifaceted relationship between environmental risks and poverty: new insights from Vietnam." Environment and Development Economics 23, no. 3 (April 5, 2018): 298–327. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x18000128.
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AbstractDespite complex interlinkages, insights into the multifaceted relationship between environmental risks and poverty can be gained through an analysis of different risks across space, time and scale within a single context using consistent methods. Combining geo-spatial data on eight environmental risks and household survey data from 2010–2014 for the case study of Vietnam, this paper shows: (i) at the district level, the incidence of poverty is higher in high risk areas, (ii) at the household level, poorer households face higher environmental risks, (iii) for some risks the relationship with household-level consumption varies between rural and urban areas, and (iv) environmental risks explain consumption differences between households, but less so changes over time. While altogether these analyses cannot establish a causal relationship between environmental risks and poverty, they do indicate that Vietnam's poor are disproportionally exposed. Given growing pressures due to climate change, addressing such risks should be a focus of poverty reduction efforts.
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Kale, Nachiket Vinayak, Firat Ilkay, and Oliver Zysk. "Particular risk analysis: impact on hybrid aircraft design." International Journal of Structural Integrity 6, no. 3 (June 8, 2015): 402–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijsi-10-2014-0060.
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Purpose – This document presents a Particular Risks Assessment (PRA) performed on an Uncontained Engine Rotor Failure (UERF) event for the new aircraft design hybrid Extremely Short Take Off and Landing All Surface (ESTOLAS) aircraft. All three propellers of the ESTOLAS (one hub propeller and two feed propellers) are evaluated for their impact on the aircraft in case of an UERF. The purpose of this paper is to present an illustration of the safety analysis and its requirement in new aircraft development. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology used is in accordance with the aerospace industry safety standard Society of Automobile Engineers (SAE) Aerospace Recommended Practices (ARP) 4,761 (Guidelines and Methods for Conducting the Safety Assessment Process on Civil Airborne Systems and Equipment). Trajectory analyses are used on a digital mock-up of the aircraft to simulate the movement of the propeller blade fragments and its effect on the aircraft and its systems. Findings – The paper provides an insight into the industry practice of performing PRA on new aircraft designs. The study identifies safe and unsafe regions of the aircraft, with the UERF event in mind. Technical solutions are suggested to minimize the damage to the aircraft and its systems. Originality/value – This document fulfills the originality criterion, since it is an analysis performed on a new aircraft design – the ESTOLAS.
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Johnson, George E., Wout Slob, Shareen H. Doak, Mick D. Fellows, Bhaskar B. Gollapudi, Robert H. Heflich, Ben J. Rees, et al. "New approaches to advance the use of genetic toxicology analyses for human health risk assessment." Toxicology Research 4, no. 3 (2015): 667–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/c4tx00118d.
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Socié, Gérard, Rochelle E. Curtis, H. Joachim Deeg, Kathleen A. Sobocinski, Alexandra H. Filipovich, Lois B. Travis, Keith M. Sullivan, et al. "New Malignant Diseases After Allogeneic Marrow Transplantation for Childhood Acute Leukemia." Journal of Clinical Oncology 18, no. 2 (January 1, 2000): 348. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2000.18.2.348.
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PURPOSE: To determine the incidence of and risk factors for second malignancies after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) for childhood leukemia. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We studied a cohort of 3,182 children diagnosed with acute leukemia before the age of 17 years who received allogeneic BMT between 1964 and 1992 at 235 centers. Observed second cancers were compared with expected cancers in an age- and sex-matched general population. Risks factors were evaluated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Twenty-five solid tumors and 20 posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLDs) were observed compared with 1.0 case expected (P < .001). Cumulative risk of solid cancers increased sharply to 11.0% (95% confidence interval, 2.3% to 19.8%) at 15 years and was highest among children at ages younger than 5 years at transplantation. Thyroid and brain cancers (n = 14) accounted for most of the strong age trend; many of these patients received cranial irradiation before BMT. Multivariate analyses showed increased solid tumor risks associated with high-dose total-body irradiation (relative risk [RR] = 3.1) and younger age at transplantation (RR = 3.7), whereas chronic graft-versus-host disease was associated with a decreased risk (RR = 0.2). Risk factors for PTLD included chronic graft-versus-host disease (RR = 6.5), unrelated or HLA-disparate related donor (RR = 7.5), T-cell–depleted graft (RR = 4.8), and antithymocyte globulin therapy (RR = 3.1). CONCLUSION: Long-term survivors of BMT for childhood leukemia have an increased risk of solid cancers and PTLDs, related to both transplant therapy and treatment given before BMT. Transplant recipients, especially those given radiation, should be monitored closely for second cancers.
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Luo, Weixu, Yuanshan Han, Xin Li, Zhuo Liu, Pan Meng, and Yuhong Wang. "Breast Cancer Prognosis Prediction and Immune Pathway Molecular Analysis Based on Mitochondria-Related Genes." Genetics Research 2022 (May 31, 2022): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2249909.
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Background. Mitochondria play an important role in breast cancer (BRCA). We aimed to build a prognostic model based on mitochondria-related genes. Method. Univariate Cox regression analysis, random forest, and the LASSO method were performed in sequence on pretreated TCGA BRCA datasets to screen out genes from a Gene Set Enrichment Analysis, Gene Ontology: biological process gene set to build a prognosis risk score model. Survival analyses and ROC curves were performed to verify the model by using the GSE103091 dataset. The BRCA datasets were equally divided into high- and low-risk score groups. Comparisons between clinical features and immune infiltration related to different risk scores and gene mutation analysis and drug sensitivity prediction were performed for different groups. Result. Four genes, MRPL36, FEZ1, BMF, and AFG1L, were screened to construct our risk score model in which the higher the risk score, the poorer the prognosis. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that the risk score was significantly associated with age, M stage, and N stage. The gene mutation probability in the high-risk score group was significantly higher than that in the low-risk score group. Patients with higher risk scores were more likely to die. Drug sensitivity prediction in different groups indicated that PF-562271 and AS601245 might be new inhibitors of BRCA. Conclusion. We developed a new workable risk score model based on mitochondria-related genes for BRCA prognosis and identified new targets and drugs for BRCA research.
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Lee, Dae-Woong, and Gi-Heon Kwon. "The effect of risk communication on the acceptance of policies for high-risk facilities in South Korea: with particular focus on the mediating effects of risk perception." International Review of Administrative Sciences 85, no. 2 (July 31, 2017): 337–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0020852317702445.
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Continuous technological development has resulted in a new type of risk to human lives: what is now regarded as “socially created risk.” Ideas on risk have increasingly focused on subjective, rather than objective, risk. This shift is clearly observable in the case of location policies for nuclear energy facilities. The South Korean public is often suspicious of new energy facilities; for example, in the case of nuclear power, they are suspicious of the risk of involuntary exposure to dangerous radiation, which cannot be effectively controlled. Therefore, the South Korean government is continuously discussing how to increase the acceptance of such high-risk facilities by managing the public’s risk perceptions. The research question was as follows: “Does the Korean government’s risk communication strategy have a positive impact on the public’s risk perceptions and acceptance of policies?” This study analyzed whether communicating risks helps boost public acceptance of high-risk facilities. A structural equation model and multiple group analyses were used for empirical analysis. The study explores government perspectives in terms of insecurity and conflict caused by scientific advancements, and uncertain public perceptions of high-risk facilities such as nuclear power plants. It provides empirical results regarding risk communication and implications for public policy that decrease risk perception and increase the acceptance of such policies. Points for practitioners This study analyzes whether risk communication can solve the problem of low public acceptance of high-risk facilities, based on their risk perception. As a result, this study contributes to policy implications regarding risk communication as a way to control risk perception and increase policy acceptance. In particular, it is critical to develop strategies for risk communication in which the public shares the decision-making process with governmental bodies and energy providers.
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Patel, Keval M., and Vincent J. Gnanapragasam. "Novel concepts for risk stratification in prostate cancer." Journal of Clinical Urology 9, no. 2_suppl (December 2016): 18–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2051415816673502.
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Since Partin introduced the analysis of prostate-specific antigen, clinical T-stage and Gleason scores to estimate the risk of progression in men with localised prostate cancer, our understanding of factors that modify this risk has changed drastically. There are now multiple risk stratification tools available, including look-up tables, risk stratification/classification analyses, regression-tree analyses, nomograms and artificial neural networks. Concurrently, descriptions of novel biopsy strategies, imaging modalities and biomarkers are frequently published with the aim of improving risk stratification. With an abundance of new information available, incorporating advances into clinical practice can be confusing. This article aims to outline the major novel concepts in prostate cancer risk stratification for men with biopsy confirmed prostate cancer. We will detail which of these novel techniques and tools are likely to be adopted to aid treatment decisions and enable more accurate post-diagnosis, pretreatment risk stratification.
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Al-Imam, Ahmed. "Retrospective Analyses of High-risk NPS: Integrative Analyses of PubMed, Drug Fora, and the Surface Web." Global Journal of Health Science 9, no. 11 (September 18, 2017): 40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/gjhs.v9n11p40.
Full textAbstract:
BACKGROUND: Novel psychoactive substances (NPS) can be classified based on their safety for use into low-risk and high-risk. High-risk NPS can be either lethal or poisonous. Fatalities can be either pharmacological or behavioural-induced, including suicide and homicide.MATERIALS & METHODS: Observational analysis, including retrospective, were implemented across; Google Trends, PubMed/MedLine database; Drug Fora, and the surface web. The aim was to collect data in relation to incidents of intoxication and fatalities caused by forty-seven (47) of the most popular NPS and to infer the high-risk (hazardous) substances. Geo-mapping was also applicable. Inferential analyses were also carried out to deduct data on the different age grouping of (ab)users.RESULTS: Among the most popular NPS substances, nearly half of them were labelled as high-risk due to their relatively high incidence of intoxications and deaths. The substances included; DMA/DOX, MXE, Mescaline, Methylone, Crack, GHB, Benzodiazepines, NBOMe, 2C-B, DMT, Stimulants RCs, Shrooms, Ketamine, Opioids, Heroin, Meth, Speed, LSD, MDMA, and Cocaine. Many of these substances were either psychedelic or dissociative substance. Geo-mapping of use indicated that the top ten contributing countries were; Australia, Canada, United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand, Ireland, Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, and Estonia. The contribution of the Middle East was insignificant, although data have regularly been noticed originating from Israel, Iran, and Turkey.CONCLUSION: In this study, an unconventional inferential method is suggested for analysis of high-risk NPS; it is based on cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of data. It relies primarily on data from; the surface web, Google Trends, PubMed/Medline database, and drug fora. This method is not only descriptive but also inferential for age and gender among (ab)users of a diverse array of high-risk NPS substances.