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1
Ng, Anthony Kwok-Lung. "Risk Assessment of Transformer Fire Protection in a Typical New Zealand High-Rise Building." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Civil Engineering, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1223.
Full textAbstract:
Prescriptively, the requirement of fire safety protection systems for distribution substations is not provided in the compliance document for fire safety to the New Zealand Building Code. Therefore, the New Zealand Fire Service (NZFS) has proposed a list of fire safety protection requirements for distribution substations in a letter, dated 10th July 2002. A review by Nyman [1], has considered the fire safety requirements proposed by the NZFS and discussed the issues with a number of fire engineers over the last three years. Nyman concerned that one of the requirements regarding the four hour fire separation between the distribution substation and the interior spaces of the building may not be necessary when considering the risk exposure to the building occupants in different situations, such as the involvement of the sprinkler systems and the use of transformers with a lower fire hazard. Fire resistance rating (FRR) typically means the time duration for which passive fire protection system, such as fire barriers, fire walls and other fire rated building elements, can maintain its integrity, insulation and stability in a standard fire endurance test. Based on the literature review and discussions with industry experts, it is found that failure of the passive fire protection system in a real fire exposure could potentially occur earlier than the time indicated by the fire resistance rating derived from the standard test depending on the characteristics of the actual fire (heat release rate, fire load density and fire location) and the characteristics of the fire compartment (its geometric, ventilation conditions, opening definition, building services and equipment). Hence, it is known that a higher level of fire safety, such as 4 hour fire rated construction and use of sprinkler system, may significantly improve the fire risk to health of safety of occupants in the building; however, they could never eliminate the risk. This report presents a fire engineering Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) on a transformer fire initiating in a distribution substation inside a high-rise residential and commercial mixeduse building. It compares the fire safety protection requirements for distribution substations from the NZFS to other relevant documents worldwide: the regulatory standards in New Zealand, Australia and United States of America, as well as the non-regulatory guidelines from other stakeholders, such as electrical engineering organisation, insurance companies and electricity providers. This report also examines the characteristics of historical data for transformer fires in distribution substations both in New Zealand and United States of America buildings. Reliability of active fire safety protection systems, such as smoke detection systems and sprinkler systems is reviewed in this research. Based on the data analysis results, a fire risk estimate is determined using an Event Tree Analysis (ETA) for a total of 14 scenarios with different fire safety designs and transformer types for a distribution substation in a high-rise residential and commercial mixed-use building. In Scenario 1 to 10 scenarios, different combinations of fire safety systems are evaluated with the same type of transformer, Flammable liquid (mineral oil) insulated transformer. In Scenario 11 to Scenario 14, two particular fire safety designs are selected as a baseline for the analysis of transformer types. Two types of transformer with a low fire hazard are used to replace the flammable liquid (mineral oil) insulated transformer in a distribution substation. These are less flammable liquid (silicone oil) insulated transformers and dry type (dry air) transformers. The entire fire risk estimate is determined using the software package @Risk4.5. The results from the event tree analysis are used in the cost-benefit analysis. The cost-benefit ratios are measured based on the reduced fire risk exposures to the building occupants, with respect to the investment costs of the alternative cases, from its respective base case. The outcomes of the assessment show that the proposed four hour fire separation between the distribution substations and the interior spaces of the building, when no sprinkler systems are provided, is not considered to be the most cost-effective alternative to the life safety of occupants, where the cost-benefit ratio of this scenario is ranked fifth. The most cost-effective alternative is found to be the scenario with 30 minute fire separation and sprinkler system installed. In addition to the findings, replacing a flammable liquid insulated transformer with a less flammable liquid insulated transformer or a dry type transformer is generally considered to be economical alternatives. From the QRA analysis, it is concluded that 3 hour fire separation is considered to be appropriate for distribution substations, containing a flammable liquid insulated transformer and associated equipment, in non-sprinklered buildings. The fire ratings of the separation construction can be reduced to 30 minute FRR if sprinkler system is installed. This conclusion is also in agreement with the requirements of the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA).
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Rybalko, Svetlana A. "A content analysis of Hurricane Katrina news coverage in the New York times." Virtual Press, 2007. http://liblink.bsu.edu/uhtbin/catkey/1365524.
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The current study explored how Hurricane Katrina and consecutive flooding were covered by a mainstream news media organization--the New York Times. The purpose of the study was to see and analyze if the natural disaster of such magnitude as Hurricane Katrina increased the New York Times awareness of potential risks faced by the coastal area of the United States? Can the New York Times play a role of a social change agent helping the public realize risks and be more prepared for them in the future?The researcher conducted frame analysis and 3279 paragraphs were coded in the following categories: disaster aftermath, human interest, political, responsiveness, recovery, risk, science, damage, conflict, blame frame, and other. A chi-square test was used to test the hypotheses.The first hypothesis stated: "In disaster news coverage there will be more non-risk oriented stories rather than risk oriented stories" was accepted. The secondhypothesis stated: "In stories that have risk related information there will be more quotes from officials rather than experts" was rejected.The study of the first research question: "What kinds of risks have been covered in risk framed stories?" demonstrated that reporters tend to cover more dramatic risks rather than mundane ones. The study of the second research question: "Were the sources in stories about Hurricane Katrina being quoted on subjects appropriate to their expertise?" showed that sources used in the stories were quoted according to their expertise. The study of the third question: "What kind of risk awareness (current risks) and risk prevention (hypothetical risks) coverage is there in the New York Times?" revealed that reporters tend to provide more information on current risks (risk awareness) rather than information on how to prevent future risks.Department of Journalism
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Yu, Mengyao. "Exploitation des données issues d'études d'association pangénomiques pour caractériser les voies biologiques associées au risque génétique du prolapsus de la valve mitrale GWAS-driven gene-set analyses, genetic and functional follow-up suggest GLIS1 as a susceptibility gene for mitral valve prolapse Up-dated genome-wide association study and functional annotation reveal new risk loci for mitral valve prolapse." Thesis, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 2019. https://wo.app.u-paris.fr/cgi-bin/WebObjects/TheseWeb.woa/wa/show?t=2203&f=17890.
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Le prolapsus de la valve mitrale (MVP) est une valvulopathie fréquente qui touche près de 1 personne sur 40 dans la population générale. Il s'agit de la première indication de réparation et / ou de remplacement de la valve. De nombreux gènes comme FLNA, DCHS1 pour les formes familiales et TNS1 et LMCD1 pour les formes sporadiques ont récemment été décrit comme associés au MVP. Cependant, les défauts génétiques touchant ces gènes n'expliquent pas tous les cas du MVP. De plus, les mécanismes biologiques expliquant la susceptibilité génétique au MVP, notamment pour les formes sporadiques les plus fréquentes restent mal compris. Dans cette thèse, mon objectif était 1) de caractériser globalement les mécanismes biologiques impliqués dans le risque génétique du MVP dans le contexte des études d'association pangénomique (GWAS), et 2) d'améliorer la résolution du génotypage par l'imputation génétique et par l'addition d'une nouvelle étude cas témoins, (UKBioBank) afin de permettre la découverte de nouveaux loci de prédisposition. Dans la première partie, j'ai appliqué des outils d'enrichissement de voies biologiques ou sets de gènes (i-GSEA4GWAS, DEPICT) aux données GWAS. J'ai pu montrer que les gènes présents autour des loci GWAS sont impliqués dans l'organisation des filaments d'actine, l'organisation du cytosquelette et le développement cardiaque. Nous avons également décrits de nombreux régulateurs de la transcription impliqués le développement, la prolifération cellulaire et la migration, comme le gène GLIS1 qui joue un rôle dans les transitions morphologiques cellulaires (EndoMT, MET). Afin de confirmer le rôle de GLIS1 dans l'association avec le MVP, j'ai réalisé une analyse génétique dans UKBiobank et, en combinaison avec les données françaises, l'association a atteint le seuil de significativité génomique. Des expériences d'immunohistochimie ont indiqué que Glis1, la protéine orthologue de la souris est exprimée au cours du développement embryonnaire principalement dans les noyaux des cellules endothéliales et interstitielles des valves mitrales. D'autre part, l'inactivation de Glis1 à l'aide d'oligonucléotides de type Morpholinos ont été l'origine d'une régurgitation atrio-ventriculaire chez le poisson zèbre. Dans la deuxième partie, j'ai généré des données de génotypage plus dense à l'aide d'une imputation basée sur Haplotype Reference Consortium (HRC) et TOPMed. J'ai d'abord comparé la précision d'imputation entre les données utilisant les différents panels et constaté qu'aucun panel n'atteignait une précision optimale pour les variants rares (MAF <0,01) dans nos échantillons. La précision d'imputation s'améliorait pour les variants fréquents (MAF> 0,05), en particulier pour les cohortes dont le génotypage étaient réalisé avec des puces identiques. J'ai pu ainsi cartographier avec plus de précision les loci déjà confirmés (ex. Chr 2 autour de TNS1). J'ai également identifié 6 nouveaux loci associés au MVP prometteurs. Les nouveaux variants associés sont tous fréquents. L'annotation fonctionnelle fine à l'aide de données publiques a indiqué leurs rôles potentiels dans la régulation transcriptionnelle de plusieurs gènes candidats (ex. PDGFD et ACTN4). En résumé, mes travaux de thèse ont apporté des résultats génétiques originaux mettant en lumière de nouveaux mécanismes biologiques en rapport avec la biologie et le développement de la valve. Ces travaux ont fait appel à de nombreuses stratégies génétiques d'association et d'enrichissement, d'imputation haute densité et d'annotations fonctionnelles. Mes travaux ont également été renforcés par des validations dans des modèles animaux en collaboration. Il sera nécessaire toutefois de confirmer par réplication, et potentiellement par des expériences biologiques, les résultats nouveaux issus des travaux d'imputation haute densité afin de déclarer ces nouveaux gènes de prédispositions au MVPMitral valve prolapse (MVP) is a common heart valve disease affecting nearly 1 in 40 individuals in the general population. It is the first indication for valve repair and/or replacement and moreover, a risk factor for mitral regurgitation, an established cause of endocarditis and sudden death. MVP is characterized by excess extracellular matrix secretion and cellular disorganization which leads to bulky valves that are unable to coapt correctly during ventricular systole. Even though several genes including FLNA, DCHS1 TNS1, and LMCD1 were reported to be associated with MVP, these explain partially its heritability. However, understanding the biological mechanisms underlying the genetic susceptibility to MVP is necessary to characterize its triggering mechanisms. In this thesis, I aimed 1) to characterize globally the biological mechanisms involved in the genetic risk for MVP in the context of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and 2) improve the genotyping resolution using genetic imputation, which allowed the discovery of additional risk genes for MVP. In the first part of my study, I applied pathway enrichment tools (i-GSEA4GWAS, DEPICT) to the GWAS data. I was able to show that genes at risk loci are involved in biological functions relevant to actin filament organization, cytoskeleton biology, and cardiac development. The enrichment for positive regulation of transcription, cell proliferation, and migration motivated the follow-up of GLIS1, a transcription factor that regulates Hedgehog signalling. I followed up the association with MVP in a dataset of cases and controls from the UK Biobank and, in combination with previously available data, I found a genome-wide significant association with MVP (OR=1.22, P=4.36 ×10-10). Through collaborative efforts, immunohistochemistry experiments in mouse indicated that Glis1 is expressed during embryonic development predominantly in nuclei of endothelial and interstitial cells of mitral valves, while Glis1 knockdown using morpholinos caused atrioventricular regurgitation in zebrafish. In the second part of my work, I generated larger genotyping datasets using a imputation based on Haplotyp Refernece Consortium and TOPMed, two large and highly dense imputation panels that were recently made available. I first compared the imputation accuracy between data using HRC and TopMED and found that both panels have low imputation accuracy for rare allele (MAF<0.01). However, the imputation accuracy increased with the input sample size for common variants (MAF>0.05), especially when genotyping platforms were harmonised. I was able to fine map established loci (e.g Chr 2) and also able to identify six novel and promising associated loci. All new loci are driven by common variants that I confirmed as high profile regulatory variants through an extensive computationally-based functional annotations at promising loci that pointed at several candidate genes for valve biology and development (e.g PDGFD and ACTN4). In summary, my PhD work applied up-to-data high throughput genetic association methods and functional enrichment and annotation to GWAS data. My results provide novel insights into the genetics, molecular and cellular basis of valve disease. Further genetic confirmation through replication, but also through biological experiments are expected to consolidate these statistically and computationally supported results
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Marais, Karen 1973. "A new approach to risk analysis with a focus on organizational risk factors." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/32467.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2005.Includes bibliographical references (p. 235-255).
Preventing accidents in complex socio-technical systems requires an approach to risk management that continuously monitors risk and identifies potential areas of concern before they lead to hazards, and constrains hazards before they lead to accidents. This research introduces the concept of continuous participative risk management, in which risks are continuously monitored throughout the lifetime of a system, and members from all levels of the organization are involved both in risk analysis and in risk mitigation. One aspect of effective risk management is accurate risk analysis that takes account of technical, human, and organizational factors. This research develops a new approach to risk analysis that improves on event-based models to include risks that do not depend only on component or subsystem failures, and incorporates both human and organizational factors. The approach enables the early identification of risk mitigation strategies, aids in the allocation of resources to best manage risk, and provides for the continuous monitoring of risk throughout the system lifecycle. Organizational factors have been identified as a significant aspect of accidents in complex socio-technical systems. Properly managing and assessing risk requires an understanding of the impact of organizational factors on risk. Three popular theories of organizational risk, normal accidents theory (NAT), high reliability organizations (HRO), and normalization of deviance, are reviewed. While these approaches do provide some useful insights, they all have significant limitations, particularly as a basis for assessing and managing risk. This research develops the understanding of organizational risk factors by focussing on the dynamics of organizational risk.
(cont.) A framework is developed to analyze the strategic trade-offs between short and long-term goals and understand the reasons why organizations tend to migrate to states of increasing risk. The apparent conflict between performance and safety is shown to result from the different time horizons applying to performance and safety. Performance is measured in the short term, while safety is indirectly observed over the long term. Expanding the time horizon attenuates the apparent tension between performance and safety. By increasing awareness of the often implicit trade-offs between safety and performance, organizations can avoid decisions that unwittingly increase risk. In addition to this general dynamic, several specific common patterns of problematic organizational behaviour in accidents in diverse industries are identified. While accidents usually differ in the technical aspects, the organizational behaviour accompanying the accident exhibits commonalities across industries. These patterns of behaviour, or archetypes, can be used to better understand how risk arises and how problematic organizational behaviours might be addressed in diverse settings such as the space industry and chemical manufacturing. NASA specific archetypes are developed based on historical accounts of NASA and investigations into the Challenger and Columbia accidents. The NASA archetypes illustrate several mechanisms by which the manned space program migrated towards high risk.
by Karen Marais.
Ph.D.
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Abadi, Mostafa Shams Esfand. "Analysis of new techniques for risk aggregation and dependence modelling." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/9239.
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Mestrado em Ciências ActuariaisIn risk aggregation we are interested in the distribution of the sum of dependent risks. The objective of risk aggregation and dependence modeling is to model adequately dependent insurance portfolios in order to evaluate the overall risk exposure. This master thesis investigates some practical aspects of modeling risk aggregation and dependency. We give an introduction to copula-based hierarchical aggregation model through reordering algorithm. This approach can be easily applicable in high dimensions and consists of a tree structure, bivariate copulas, and marginal distributions. This method is empirically illustrated using data set of Danish Fire Insurance Data. These data were collected at Copenhagen Reinsurance over the period 1980 to 1990 and every total claim has been divided into three risks consisting of a building loss, a loss of contents and a loss of profits caused by the same fire.
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Hewitt, Dolan. "Risk analysis associated with flank failure from Putauaki, Bay of Plenty, New Zealand." The University of Waikato, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10289/2337.
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Volcanoes are dynamic evolving structures, with life cycles that are punctuated by episodes of flank instability. Putauaki (Mount Edgecumbe) is a stratovolcano located onshore in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. The aim of this study was to assess the stability of Putauaki and analyse the risk associated with volcanic collapse. To achieve this objective, a multidisciplinary approach was used, incorporating geomorphological and geological mapping, rock mass classification, laboratory testing to identify geotechnical properties of materials representative of the volcano, stability modelling, and analysis of landslide run-out zones. Putauaki comprises two predominant features including the larger and younger Main Cone (the summit lying 820 m a.s.l., slope angles up to 36 ), and smaller and older Main Dome (the summit lying 420 m a.s.l., slope angle of 24 ). Both features show little evidence of erosion or surface water. Rock mass description defined six lithotechnical units including indurated andesite, indurated dacite, scoriaceous andesite, altered andesite (all categorised as hard rocks), and block and ash flow and Matahina Ignimbrite (both categorised as soft rocks). The uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of indurated andesite and indurated dacite was 60 4 MPa and 44.7 0.9 MPa respectively, correlating with moderately strong rock. Discontinuities of the indurated units were widely spaced, showed medium persistence and wide aperture, and were slightly weathered. Infill comprised predominantly loosely packed, very strong, coarse gravel. UCS of scoriaceous andesite and altered andesite was 25 5 MPa and 15 1 MPa respectively, allowing categorisation as very weak rock. Discontinuities of scoriaceous andesite were widely spaced, showed high persistence and wide aperture, and were moderately weathered. Discontinuities of the altered andesite were moderately spaced, showed low persistence and wide aperture, and were highly weathered. Infill of scoriaceous and altered andesite was loosely packed, moist, weak to very weak medium gravel. The block and ash flow was a poorly sorted, loosely packed, sandy, gravely and cobble rich matrix supported deposit. The Matahina Ignimbrite was a very weak, discontinuity-poor deposit. Shear box testing indicated cohesion and friction angle of 0 MPa and 42.1 (block and ash flow) and 1.4 x 10-3 MPa and 41.7 (Matahina Ignimbrite) respectively. These values are similar to published values. Correlation of each lithotechnical unit to its respective rock mass description site allowed approximate boundaries of each unit to be mapped. Each unit's mass strength was combined with measured bulk densities and incorporated into two dimensional slope profiles using the stability modelling package GalenaTM. Ten slope profiles of Putauaki were constructed. Failure surfaces for each slope profile were defined using the Bishop simplified multiple analysis method. Four slope profiles showed the potential for small scale failure (less than 0.1 km2 of material). The remaining six slope profiles showed the potential for large scale failure (greater than 0.1 km2 of material). Stability of these six slope profiles was investigated further in relation to earthquake force, watertable elevation, and a disturbance factor of the rock mass (D). Conditions of failure graphs for profile 6a showed that at low D (less than 0.4), earthquake forces and watertable elevation must be unrealistically high for the region (greater than 0.33 g; greater than 15% watertable elevation) in order produce a factor of safety less than 1. The remaining five slope profiles showed potential to be unstable under realistic earthquake forces and watertable elevations. Two of these profiles were unable to achieve stability at D greater than 0.8 (profile 4) and D greater than 0.9 (profile 5). A D value of 0.6 (intermediate between 0.4 and 0.8) is argued to most realistically represent Putauaki. The fact that Putauaki has not undergone large scale failure to date supports the conclusion that the constructed models overestimate the influence of those factors which promote slope instability. Maximum and minimum landslide run-out zones were constructed for the slope profiles exhibiting the potential for large scale failure. Definition of the position and extent of maximum and minimum run-out zones assumed H/L (fall height to run-out length) ratios of 0.09 and 0.18 respectively, as well as the 'credible flow path' concept. Identified impacts of landslides sourced from Putauaki include inundation of Kawerau Township, Tarawera River, forestry operations, road networks, and power supplies. Based on these impacts, the risk posed by landslides from each slope profile was categorised as ranging from relatively low to relatively high. Landslides sourced from the south-west flanks pose a relatively low risk due to their prerequisite of unrealistically high watertable elevations and earthquake forces. Landslides sourced from the north-west flanks pose a relatively high risk as minimum run-out will inundate north-east parts of Kawerau Township. Landslides sourced from the eastern flanks pose a moderate risk due to their run-out zones avoiding Kawerau Township.
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Maina, Sandra. "Adaptation Preferences and Responses to Sea Level Rise and Land Loss Risk in Southern Louisiana: a Survey-based Analysis." FIU Digital Commons, 2014. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1424.
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Currently, southern Louisiana faces extreme land loss that could reach an alarming rate of about one football sized swath of land every hour. The combined effect of land subsidence and predicted sea level rise threaten the culture and livelihood of the residents living in this region. As the most vulnerable coastal population in Louisiana, the communities of south Terrebonne Parish are called to adapt by accommodating, protecting, or retreating from the impacts of climate change. For effective preparation planning, the state of Louisiana needs to 1) understand the adaptation preferences and responses of these residents and 2) involve these vulnerable communities in adaptation related decision making. The study uses a survey-based methodology to analyze current adaptation preferences. Findings suggest that protection is the preferred adaptation response. The present study additionally uses participatory techniques to develop a land loss awareness mobile application to illustrate the importance and benefits of community collaboration.
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Cao, Kay Quy Thanh Thi. "An Economic Analysis of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point-Based Risk Management Programme in the New Zealand Meat Industry." The University of Waikato, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10289/2526.
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The replacement of the Meat Act 1981 by the Animal Products Act 1999 opened a new era for food safety management in New Zealand. Administering food legislation is now the sole responsibility of the New Zealand Food Safety Authority instead of being shared between the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and the Ministry of Health as previously. At the core of the legislative change is the requirement for Risk Management Programmes (RMP). Every single animal primary processing business is required to have an RMP for each type of product. An RMP is required to embrace the principles of Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP). While there have been some studies considering the implementation of HACCP in food businesses worldwide, there has not been any study focusing on HACCP adoption in New Zealand. The mandating of RMP has also made the implementation process more complex. On the other hand, it also brings new experience in terms of food safety management. This thesis examines the implementation process of HACCP/RMP in New Zealand. It also explores the interaction between food safety management and international competitiveness through an economic analysis of the impacts of the program on a New Zealand food processing industry. The meat industry was chosen as a case study as it is one of the first industries that had to comply with the first deadline of the implementation (July 2003). Also, being a significant export-oriented industry of New Zealand, the meat industry provides an ideal case for the purpose of this study. The thesis consists of four parts. Part I presents an introduction to the study including a review of international and national food safety issues, the relationship between food safety and trade and international competitiveness, and the HACCP economic literature. This background helps to shape the research objectives and methodology as described in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 discusses the design of the survey to collect plant experience regarding the implementation of HACCP/RMP in New Zealand. Part II analyses the experiences within the New Zealand meat industry regarding the implementation of HACCP/RMP. It discusses plant motivations to adopt the program and the implementation issues they are facing. Plant observations on the costs and benefits of the implementation are reported. Further, data gathered from the survey are used in a non-parametric analysis of the influences of the plant characteristics on the HACCP/RMP implementation process. The analysis provides implications for HACCP/RMP policy design. Part III presents the modelling techniques to quantify the costs and benefits of HACCP/RMP implementation. In Chapter 8, a quality-adjusted cost function is used to estimate the change in variable cost of production due to HACCP/RMP. It shows that this type of cost can make up a significant proportion of the total implementation cost. In Chapter 9, an export model is employed to analyse the impact of HACCP/RMP on meat industry export performance. The results show that the programme can bring a positive impact on exports. However, the magnitude of the impact depends on the status of existing food safety management before HACCP/RMP implementation. In Chapter 10, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is used to simulate the scenarios where market accesses to significant export destinations are lost when HACCP/RMP is not adopted. The estimated costs of these losses signal the potential benefits of HACCP/RMP. The research results show that HACCP/RMP can deliver a net benefit to the New Zealand meat industry. The thesis concludes with implications for policy design and future research directions. It signifies that the research findings, in addition to reporting an investigation into HACCP/RMP implementation process in New Zealand, provide an important foundation for future research on food safety and international competitiveness.
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Kalo, Fady. "Il risk management tecnico nel trading di portafoglio." Bachelor's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2011. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/2732/.
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Il problema che si cerca di risolvere attraverso la gestione quantitativa del portafoglio è la riduzione del rischio tramite strategie che non dipendano dalla diversificazione dei titoli che compongono il portafoglio. Nel momento in cui si decide di applicare un trading system su un determinato gruppo di asset, il capitale non viene allocato automaticamente su tutti i titoli e si deve affrontare invece un continuo investimento tramite l’apertura dinamica di posizioni sul mercato.Questo significa che la diversificazione non è più una misura adeguata del rischio sostenuto poiché i rendimenti attesi dell’investimento non dipendono più dalle proprietà stesse degli strumenti scelti, ma dalla profittabilità dei segnali generati dalla logica del trading system su questi. Bisogna testare in questo caso le performance del sistema a livello statistico e prevedere anche, per esempio, che l’algoritmo possa generare dei segnali errati che portano a delle posizioni in perdita.
Il portafoglio a livello quantitativo deve essere gestito tramite dei trading system che abbiano la possibilità di valutare aspetti globali, come il profitto totale di tutte le posizioni attualmente aperte, o l’intero rischio sostenuto dal capitale gestito. Le decisioni non vengono prese dall’analisi delle prestazioni individuali che la strategia ottiene operando sui singoli titoli. Per affrontare una possibile soluzione a questa problematica si sono quindi selezionati due trading system le cui prestazioni fossero robuste su un intero portafoglio e non solo su determinati titoli. In un successivo momento vengono analizzate le prestazioni del portafoglio aggiungendo ai test due ulteriori strategie di uscita: lo stoploss di portafoglio e il target di portafoglio. Nonostante esse ricalchino idee ampiamente utilizzate per la gestione delle singole posizioni su un titolo, per i test si è deciso di modificarle implementando la gestione globale del capitale all’interno del trading system di portafoglio.
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Singh, Bina Aruna. "GIS based assessment of seismic risk for the Christchurch CBD and Mount Pleasant, New Zealand." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geography, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1302.
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This research employs a deterministic seismic risk assessment methodology to assess the potential damage and loss at meshblock level in the Christchurch CBD and Mount Pleasant primarily due to building damage caused by earthquake ground shaking. Expected losses in terms of dollar value and casualties are calculated for two earthquake scenarios. Findings are based on: (1) data describing the earthquake ground shaking and microzonation effects; (2) an inventory of buildings by value, floor area, replacement value, occupancy and age; (3) damage ratios defining the performance of buildings as a function of earthquake intensity; (4) daytime and night-time population distribution data and (5) casualty functions defining casualty risk as a function of building damage. A GIS serves as a platform for collecting, storing and analyzing the original and the derived data. It also allows for easy display of input and output data, providing a critical functionality for communication of outcomes. The results of this study suggest that economic losses due to building damage in the Christchurch CBD and Mount Pleasant will possibly be in the order of $5.6 and $35.3 million in a magnitude 8.0 Alpine fault earthquake and a magnitude 7.0 Ashley fault earthquake respectively. Damage to non-residential buildings constitutes the vast majority of the economic loss. Casualty numbers are expected to be between 0 and 10.
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Hustedt, Sina. "A Risk Analysis of New Zealand's Biosecurity Management System along Three Sea Importation Pathways." Thesis, University of Canterbury. School of Forestry, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/3635.
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It is widely acknowledged that international trade is a major pathway for the spread of invasive species. International agreements and domestic legislation aim to reach a balance between facilitating trade and providing nations with the right to protect their
environmental, public and economic health. This is achieved through the development of standards that prescribe procedures that must be followed before a commodity is imported. Under Section 22 of the Biosecurity Act (1993) Biosecurity
New Zealand of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF) develops import health standards for the importation of commodities and sea containers and for the approval and management of transitional facilities.
Under current regulations, before being allowed to enter New Zealand, a sea container must first be accompanied by appropriate documentation for the sea container itself and any contents (this includes cargo manifests, any required treatment certificates for the cargo and cleaning certificates for the sea container itself). Upon arriving in New Zealand the sea container is transported to a transitional facility for inspection and unloaded once biosecurity clearance has been obtained. There are approximately 7,000 transitional facilities (both on and off wharf) throughout New Zealand and
inspections are conducted by persons that have obtained accreditation from MAF for inspections (MAF accredited persons).
Based on current importation procedures and other information made available, mathematical models were developed for three sea importation pathways (sea containers, woodpackaging and used vehicles) that involved the inspection of imported units by MAF accredited persons. These models were designed to predict the effectiveness of the current border inspection policies and procedures. Inspection accuracy was found to have the most influential impact on slippage (the rate at which
contamination passes through border procedures undetected) along the measured pathways. Under current conditions, an estimated 5.75% of all sea containers, 4.12% of all sea containers containing woodpackaging and 1.63% of all used vehicles that
enter New Zealand annually are contaminated in some manner despite having biosecurity clearance. A 3% increase in inspection efficiency reduced slippage to 0.5% of sea containers, 2.16% of woodpackaging and 0.001% of used vehicles
entering New Zealand annually.
Given that the accuracy of the inspection was the most influential aspect of the border management procedures, mathematical models were develop to predict the cost of compliance recovered by MAF if all inspections were conducted by MAF inspectors
as apposed to MAF accredited persons. Under current regulations the cost of compliance (if MAF inspector conducted inspections of all imported units) was estimated to be $117.36 million for sea containers, $35.16 million for woodpackaging
and $5.44 million for used vehicles. Increasing the inspection accuracy to the ideal 100% increased the cost of compliance by 75.36%, 61.96% and 61.92% for sea containers, woodpackaging and used vehicles respectively.
These findings indicate that Government investment in the training of inspectors
throughout New Zealand would improve current border detection rates. Under current regulations, the cost incurred by MAF inspectors inspecting all imported units is recoverable. Currently the cost of compliance is approximately 1% of the value of
annual imports. These costs are seen by the import sector as part of their daily business and understand that these measures are in place for the long term sustainability of their businesses (Anon. 2005).
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Kurth, Robert E. "The development and application of a new probabilistic analysis technique for nuclear risk calculations /." The Ohio State University, 1985. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu148725958026113.
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Engelbrecht, Janine. "New Lara : a Postfeminist Analysis of Rise of the Tomb Raider." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/66646.
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Lara Croft, the heroine of the hugely popular Tomb Raider videogame series, is a representative of femininity in contemporary popular culture. The newest Lara Croft game, Rise of the Tomb Raider (released in 2015/2016) presents a new version of Lara Croft (new Lara), who is a departure from the postfeminist action hero archetype that Lara Croft exemplified before the character’s reboot in 2013 (old Lara). Lara Croft has undergone a significant transformation since her first incarnation in Tomb Raider I in 1996. Some aspects of Lara Croft’s characterisation that have changed are her wardrobe, her body shape, and the character’s emotional complexity. Narratological aspects of Lara Croft that have changed are her relationships with other female characters, as well as her relationship with her deceased parents. And finally, some of the ludological elements of the game that have changed are Lara Croft’s weapons, and the way in which she navigates her environment. The study relates Lara Croft’s transformation to the changing structures in the videogame industry, such as the number of women currently playing videogames and the number of women currently involved in creating videogames. It is found that the number of female gamers has increased significantly from 1996 to 2017 and that where women are more involved in the creation of videogames, the female heroines’ representation tends to be more in line with that of new Lara. The study identifies a new female heroine archetype, which I term ‘the new Lara phenomenon’, that is increasingly displayed in female videogame heroines after the 2013 Tomb Raider reboot.Dissertation (MA)--University of Pretoria, 2019.
Visual Arts
MA Visual Studies
Unrestricted
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Scott, Gregory Richard Jr. "The political risk of terrorism : the value of "new terrorism" as a concept for analysis." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/5140.
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BibliographyThesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research paper offers an analysis of new terrorism as a concept for analysis in Political Risk. In order to assess the novelty and value of new terrorism it is juxtaposed with old terrorism. This analysis uses a historical comparative method in which three terrorist groups, within two distinct historical periods, are discussed and compared. The first historical period is 1945-2000 and assesses old terrorism through a descriptive assessment of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah. The second historical period, 2001-2009, provides a descriptive assessment of al-Qaeda. The primary variables for analysis with regards to the terrorist groups selected herein are goals, targets and tactics. Also discussed is the secondary variable structure. A number of key findings indicate that there are more similarities than there are differences between old and new terrorism. The novelty and value of new terrorism is thus limited as a concept for analysis within Political Risk Analysis. The conclusion of this research paper establishes that for a normative conceptualisation of terrorism to exist, and have value, it must consider both old and new terrorism. This normative understanding of terrorism better serves the purpose of mitigation within the sphere of Political Risk Analysis.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie bied .n ontleding van nuwe terrorisme as .n begrip vir ontleding in Politieke Risiko. Ten einde die nuutheid en waarde van nuwe terrorisme te evalueer, word dit naas ou terrorisme gestel. Hierdie ontleding gebruik .n histories-vergelykende metode waarin drie terroristegroepe, in twee afsonderlike historiese tydperke, bespreek en vergelyk word. Die eerste historiese tydperk strek van 1945.2000 en evalueer ou terrorisme met behulp van .n beskrywende evaluering van die Moslem Broederskap en Hezbollah. Die tweede historiese tydperk, 2001.2009, bied .n beskrywende evaluering van al-Qaeda. Die primere veranderlikes vir ontleding met betrekking tot die terroristegroepe wat hierin aangewys is, is doelstellings, teikens en taktiek. Verder word die sekondere veranderlike struktuur bespreek. .n Aantal belangrike bevindinge dui daarop dat daar meer ooreenkomste as verskille tussen ou en nuwe terrorisme bestaan. Die nuutheid en waarde van nuwe terrorisme het dus beperkinge vir ontleding as .n begrip in Politieke Risiko-ontleding. Die gevolgtrekking van hierdie studie dui dus daarop dat, vir .n normatiewe konseptualisering van terrorisme om te bestaan, en ook waarde te he, dit beide ou en nuwe terrorisme in berekening moet bring. Hierdie normatiewe begrip van terrorisme dien die doel van tempering binne die sfeer van Politieke Risiko-ontleding beter.
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Landelius, Erik, and Magnus Åström. "DISTRICT HEAT PRICE MODEL ANALYSIS : A risk assesment of Mälarenergi's new district heat price model." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för ekonomi, samhälle och teknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-44097.
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Energy efficiency measures in buildings and alternative heating methods have led to a decreased demand for district heating (DH). Furthermore, due to a recent increase in extreme weather events, it is harder for DH providers to maintain a steady production leading to increased costs. These issues have led DH companies to change their price models. This thesis investigated such a price model change, made by Mälarenergi (ME) on the 1st of August 2018. The aim was to compare the old price model (PM1) with the new price model (PM2) by investigating the choice of base and peak loads a customer can make for the upcoming year, and/or if they should let ME choose for them. A prediction method, based on predicting the hourly DH demand, was chosen after a literature study and several method comparisons were made from using weather parameters as independent variables. Consumption data from Mälarenergi for nine customers of different sizes were gathered, and eight weather parameters from 2014 to 2018 were implemented to build up the prediction model. The method comparison results from Unscrambler showed that multilinear regression was the most accurate statistical modelling method, which was later used for all predictions. These predictions from Unscrambler were then used in MATLAB to estimate the total annual cost for each customer and outcome. For PM1, the results showed that the flexible cost for the nine customers stands for 76 to 85 % of the total cost, with the remaining cost as fixed fees. For PM2, the flexible cost for the nine customers stands for 46 to 61 % of the total cost, with the remaining as fixed cost. Regarding the total cost, PM2 is on average 7.5 % cheaper than PM1 for smaller customer, 8.6 % cheaper for medium customers and 15.9 % cheaper for larger customers. By finding the lowest cost case for each customer their optimal base and peaks loads were found and with the use of a statistical inference method (Bootstrapping) a 95 % confidence interval for the base load and the total yearly cost with could be established. The conclusion regarding choices is that the customer should always choose their own base load within the recommended confidence interval, with ME’s choice seen as a recommendation. Moreover, ME should always make the peak load choice because they are willing to pay for an excess fee that the customer themselves must pay otherwise.
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Nilsson, Tracy. "The New Madrid Seismic Zone." Thesis, KTH, Teknisk geologi och geofysik, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-96112.
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The Mississippi River Valley, is hardly known as an earthquake zone, but may in fact be a natural disaster just waiting to happen. Historical records and paleoseismic investigations have shown that large magnitude earthquakes have occurred in the area and there are constantly microquakes all along the New Madrid Fault System. The inhabitants of the Midwest are living in a death trap so long society doesn’t preoperly prepare for earthquakes. The study presented here aims to prove that, as predicting earthquakes is difficult to the point of impossible, the only serious alternative is to reinforce existing buildings and infrastructure and make sure all new developments are seismically safe. The conclusion reached is, that although expensive, building earthquake safe and retrofitting existing buildings, is for the high risk areas by far cheaper than doing nothing when, not if, a new large magnitude earthquake occurs. For a city in the high risk area, the cost of retrofitting the current structures was 13 billion dollar to be compared with the 100 billion dollars in lost lives and properties of a worst case scenario.
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Fotso, Milly. "Risk Gene v. Safety Net: An Analysis of the Factors the Drive Individuals to Become Entrepreneurs." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2016. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1216.
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The goal of this paper is to outline patterns in biographical background of founders of successful startup ventures, more particularly in the technology sector, that contributed to their success. Additionally, this article aims to disprove the assumption that entrepreneurs have a special tolerance for risk, and rather explores the idea that entrepreneurs have access to resources--financial, social, and intellectual--that come from their family and friends that then give them an edge and a safety net that de-mystifies them from the risk of starting a business. Once we realize that because the majority of the entrepreneurs studied in this thesis had unusually privileged backgrounds, we may then end with a suggestion as to how to level the playing field for those who may not have the same.
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Paulenda, Ján. "Analýza rizik v managementu projektů." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta informačních technologií, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-237004.
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The main subject of this Master's thesis is risk management with emphasis on risk analysis stage. All important stages, definitions and techniques are introduced in the context of risk management. There are several risk analysis methods discussed in this thesis, especially the Markov analysis and the Petri net analysis. After the thorough analysis of the subject, the system to support the risk management was designed and implemented, while precisely Markov analysis was chosen.
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Carless, Travis Seargeoh Emile. "Framing a New Nuclear Renaissance Through Environmental Competitiveness, Community Characteristics, and Cost Mitigation Through Passive Safety." Research Showcase @ CMU, 2018. http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/1151.
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The nuclear power sector has a history of challenges with its relative competitiveness against other forms of electricity generation. The availability of low cost low natural gas, the Fukushima accident, and the cancellation of the AP1000 V.C. Summer project has caused a considerable role in ending the short lived “Nuclear Renaissance.” Historically, the nuclear industry has focused on direct cost reduction through construction, increasing installed capacity, and improving efficiencies to capacity factors in the 1990s and 2000s as ways to maintain competitiveness against other forms of energy generation. With renewables serving as an emerging low-carbon competitor, an added focus needs to be placed on indirect methods to increase the competitiveness of nuclear power. This thesis focuses on establishing pathways where nuclear power can be competitive with other forms of electricity generation given its advantages environmentally with Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), socioeconomically with legacy nuclear power plants, and through passive safety with SMRs. In Chapter 2, I estimate the life cycle GHG emissions and examine the cost of carbon abatement when nuclear is used to replace fossil fuels for the Westinghouse SMR (W-SMR) and AP1000. I created LCA models using past literature and Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the mean (and 90% confidence interval) life cycle GHG emissions of the W-SMR to be 7.4 g of CO2-eq/kwh (4.5 to 11.3 g of CO2-eq/kwh) and the AP1000 to be 7.6 g of CO2-eq/kwh (5.0 to 11.3 g of CO2-eq/kwh). Within the analysis I find that the estimated cost of carbon abatement with an AP1000 against coal and natural gas is $2/tonne of CO2-eq (-$13 to $26/tonne of CO2-eq) and $35/tonne of CO2-eq ($3 to $86/tonne of CO2-eq), respectively. In comparison, a W-SMR the cost of carbon abatement against coal and natural gas is $3/tonne of CO2- eq (-$15 to $28/tonne of CO2-eq) and $37/tonne of CO2-eq (-$1 to $90/tonne of CO2-eq), respectively. I conclude, with the exception of hydropower, the Westinghouse SMR design and the AP1000 have a smaller footprint than all other generation technologies including renewables. Assigning a cost to carbon for natural gas plant or implementing zero-emission incentives can improve the economic competitiveness of nuclear power through environmental competitiveness. The retirement of small and medium-scale coal power plants due the availability of natural gas can provide an opportunity for SMRs to replace that missing capacity. This trade-off between higher costs but lower GHG emissions demonstrates that depending on the value placed on carbon, SMR technology could be economically competitive with fossil fuel technologies Following my environmental competitiveness analysis, I shift towards investigating socioeconomic competitiveness of legacy large scale nuclear power plants compared to baseload coal and natural gas plants. In Chapter 3, I utilize ANOVA models, Tukey’s, and t-tests to explore the socioeconomic characteristics and disparities that exist within counties and communities that contain baseload power plants. My results indicate, relative to the home counties of nuclear plants, communities closer to nuclear plants have higher home values and incomes than those further away. Conversely, communities near coal and natural gas have incomes and home values that increase with distance from the plant. Communities near coal plants are typically either in less wealthy parts of the county or have a similar socioeconomic makeup as county. It can be suggested that equity issues regarding the community characteristics could be included in the discussion of converting existing power plants to use other fuel sources. Communities near power plants are not created equally and have different needs. While communities near nuclear power plants may benefit from the added tax base and absence of emissions, this is not the case for communities near coal and natural gas. With the impending retirement of large scale coal plants, the conversion of these plants to natural gas or small modular reactors presents an opportunity where negative environmental externalities can be reduced while also retaining some of the economic benefits. In Chapter 4, I present a model for estimating environmental dose exposure in a post-accident scenario to support scalable emergency planning zones (EPZs). The model includes calculating radionuclide inventory; estimating the impact decontamination factors from the AP1000, NUREG-6189, and EPRI’s Experimental Verification of Post-Accident iPWR Aerosol Behavior test will have on radioactivity within containment; and estimate dose exposure using atmospheric dispersion models. This work aims to compare historical decontamination factors with updated decontamination factors to outline the impact on containment radioactivity and dose exposure relative to the Environmental Protection Agency’s Protective Action Guide (PAG) limits. On average, I have found the AP1000, Surry, and iPWR produces 139, 153, and 104 curies/ft3 75 minutes after a LOCA. The iPWR produces less radioactivity per volume in containment than the AP1000 and Surry 84% and 96% of the time, respectively. The AP1000 produces less radioactivity per volume than Surry 68% of the time. On average, the AP1000, Surry, and iPWR produces 84,000, 106,000, and 7,000 curies/MWth 75 minutes after a LOCA. The lower bound 5 rem PAG limit is never exceeded for and does not exceeds the 1 rem lower PAG limit for whole body exposure at the 5-mile EPZ using the mean value. Considering this analysis uses a simple worst case Gaussian Plume model for atmospheric dispersion, the findings can be used to in conjunction with the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) to provide accurate and realistic estimates for exposure. I believe this analysis can help to develop a regulatory basis for technology-neutral, risk-based approach to EPZs for iPWRs. Finally, in Chapter 5 I discuss historical challenges facing the nuclear industry, policy implications, and recommendations. These policy implications and recommendations serve as pathways to frame an new nuclear renaissance. I also recommend future work where I details opportunities for improvements to nuclear competitiveness. Ultimately, this thesis can help policy and decision makers that can improve competitiveness and minimize risk as it relates to the expansion of nuclear power sector.
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Gates, Rebecca Grace. "Fiscal Equity for At-Risk Students: A Quanitative Analysis of the At-Risk Index Component of the New Mexico Public School Funding Formula." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/29703.
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This quantitative research has been designed to investigate fiscal equity for at-risk students in the State of New Mexico. This empirical data analysis compared equity indices before the At-Risk Index was implemented in the New Mexico public school funding formula in FY 1996-97 and after the At-Risk Index was included for FY 1997-98. Formula options based on the premise of vertical equity were reviewed. This research was selected as the 2001 New Scholars Program Award sponsored by the American Education Finance Association and the National Center for Education Statistics. The research model was presented at the 2002 AEFA National conference in Albuquerque, New Mexico. In brief, the results of the analyses showed that very modest fiscal equity gains occurred following the implementation of the At-Risk Index. However, the ability to achieve significant gains in equity scores were restricted due to a lack of state revenue growth.Ed. D.
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Rubio, Jose F. "Analysis of investment strategies: a new look at investment returns." ScholarWorks@UNO, 2013. http://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/1759.
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Chapter 1:
Intuition suggests that constraint investment strategies will result in losses due to a limited portfolio allocation. Yet prior research has shown that this is not the case for a particular set of constraint mutual funds so-called Socially Responsible Investing, SRI. In this paper I show that such assets do face loses to portfolio efficiency due to their limited asset universe. I contribute to the literature by employing two techniques to estimate asset performance. First, I estimate a DEA based efficiency score that allows for direct comparison between ex-post efficiency rankings and test the ex-ante relevance of such scores by including them into asset pricing models. Second, I further check if these results are consistent when comparing the performance of ethical funds based on the alphas of traditional asset pricing models even after adjusting for coskewness risk. Overall, the results suggest that ethical funds underperform traditional unconstraint investment assets.
Chapter 2:
Starting after the turn of the millennium, inflation has been persistently higher than the short term T-Bill rate. Following the traditional view, this will imply a negative real rates of return that have become commonplace in the US economy. This paper examines the possibility that if an inflation risk discount contained in nominal rates exist and can explain low or negative real rates, using consumption based asset pricing model. Evidence suggests using the traditional Fisher equation to calculate real rates leads to an overestimate of real rates due to a modest inflation risk premium. To achieve non-negative real rates in a consumption based asset pricing framework the covariance between consumption growth and inflation innovations would have to be at least thirty times larger than empirically found, and in opposite direction, for the Post-Volker era. Still, though the after 2000’s covariance is positive, which suggest a discount on risk free, the magnitude is still too small to explain negativity of real rates.
JEL Classification : E21, E31
Key Words : Mutual Funds, Performance, Data Envelop Analysis, Coskewness, Risk Factors, Real Returns, Consumption Bases Asset Pricing Models, Inflation
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Alharaib, Mansour. "STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND VOLATILITY: MACROECONOMIC NEWS ANNOUNCEMENTS, INTERACTIONS, AND MARKET RISK ANALYSIS." OpenSIUC, 2018. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/dissertations/1583.
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This study examines how stock market returns and volatility responses to macroeconomic news announcements in US and Europe, and oil prices. Moreover, the market risk associated with these stock markets based on selected countries and regions is also analyzed here. In all chapters, the data is in a weekly time horizon and it covers 21 countries from different contents. In particular, Data covers three different time periods, i.e. full sample from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2015, before the financial crisis, i.e. from 1/1/2000 to 9/27/2008 and after the financial crisis, i.e. from 10/11/2008 to 12/31/2015. Chapter 2 studies the impact of macroeconomic news announcements on stock markets in 21 countries using US and European countries macroeconomic news announcements. The first part investigates the impact of macroeconomic news announcements surprises in US and European Countries on stock markets returns in these countries. The second part analyzes the impact of macroeconomic news announcements in US and European Countries on stock markets volatility in these countries. Our results show that stock markets in selected countries react differently to macroeconomic news announcement in US and Europe. Chapter 3 study the interaction and volatility spillover between oil prices and stock markets returns and volatility in selected countries and regions. Oil prices are based on West Texas Intermediate (WTI). The analysis use VAR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model to capture the interdependence between stocks market and oil prices. The findings show that there is interdependence between stock markets and oil price changes in most selected countries and regions. Chapter 4 study the market risk in stock markets returns in selected countries and regions using IGARCH(1,1) and GARCH(1,1) to obtain the value at risk (VaR) and the expected shortfall (ES). The findings of chapter 4 show that market risk was high for most selected countries before the financial crisis and low after the financial crisis.
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Tahmidi, Arad, Dmytro Sheludchenko, and Westlund Samira Allahyari. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Market Risk Premium : Study of Sweden, Germany and Canada." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för hållbar samhälls- och teknikutveckling, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-12721.
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ABSTRACT Title The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Market Premium. Study of Sweden, Germany and Canada Authors Samira Allahyari Westlund Arad Tahmidi Dmytro Sheludchenko Supervisor Christos Papahristodoulou Key words Macroeconomic, market risk premium, GDP, inflation, money supply, primary net lending and net borrowing, regression analysis. Institution Mälardalen University School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology Box 883, SE-721 23 Västerås Sweden Course Bachelor Thesis in Economics (NAA 301), 15 ECTS Problem statement Risk premium value is of great interest to the financial world, since this value represents the extra return that investors receive considering the risk from investing in financial markets. The fluctuations in stock markets are believed to be influenced by changes in macroeconomic variables. Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables on and their relation to market risk premium in Canada, Sweden and Germany in the years 1992 – 2007. Method Multiple Regression Analysis, Ordinary Least squares (OLS) Result Forecasted Growth in real GDP is the only macroeconomic variable which has significant relation with market risk premium. The effect of money supply was found to be insignificant. Net lending and net borrowing had significant negative effect on market risk premium in Canada, whereas in Germany and Sweden the relationship was not significant.
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Ryder, Hilary Furste. "Alcohol and injury: an analysis of at risk drinkers presenting to the Yale-New Haven Hospital emergency room." Yale University, 2004. http://ymtdl.med.yale.edu/theses/available/etd-08202004-172347/.
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Compared with the population at-large, the Emergency Department (ED) population sees a high percentage of people with alcohol use and abuse problems. Therefore, the ED is well suited for the implementation of alcohol screening and interventions. It is important to be able to identify at risk drinkers who come to the ED for treatment for injury or other medical problems so that interventions may occur. Project ED Health conducted intensive interviews with harmful and hazardous drinkers presenting to the ED for treatment of injury or medical problem. The data was entered into a database and analyzed to find differences between injured and non-injured at risk drinkers. We found that 2/3 of at risk drinkers presented without injury. Compared to participants without injuries, injured individuals were significantly younger and more likely to be male. Injured and non-injured individuals had similar drinking patterns and health behaviors. Individuals at risk for alcohol-associated problems are similar in terms of drinking patterns and consequences and health status. Any screening tactic that is less than comprehensive, (i.e. that targets only injured individuals), will miss a significant number of at risk drinkers.
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Buchberger, Alexander [Verfasser], Dietmar [Gutachter] Grichnik, and Christian [Gutachter] Koziol. "New venture cost of equity and risk models : a theoretical analysis / Alexander Buchberger. Gutachter: Dietmar Grichnik ; Christian Koziol." Vallendar : WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1113537485/34.
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Buchberger, Alexander Verfasser], Dietmar [Gutachter] [Grichnik, and Christian [Gutachter] Koziol. "New venture cost of equity and risk models : a theoretical analysis / Alexander Buchberger. Gutachter: Dietmar Grichnik ; Christian Koziol." Vallendar : WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management, 2016. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hbz:992-opus4-1489.
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Kaymaz, N., M. Drukker, Roselind Lieb, Hans-Ulrich Wittchen, N. Werbeloff, M. Weiser, T. Lataster, and Os J. van. "Do subthreshold psychotic experiences predict clinical outcomes in unselected non-help-seeking population-based samples? A systematic review and meta-analysis, enriched with new results." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-117329.
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Background The base rate of transition from subthreshold psychotic experiences (the exposure) to clinical psychotic disorder (the outcome) in unselected, representative and non-help-seeking population-based samples is unknown.
Method A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted of representative, longitudinal population-based cohorts with baseline assessment of subthreshold psychotic experiences and follow-up assessment of psychotic and non-psychotic clinical outcomes.
Results Six cohorts were identified with a 3–24-year follow-up of baseline subthreshold self-reported psychotic experiences. The yearly risk of conversion to a clinical psychotic outcome in exposed individuals (0.56%) was 3.5 times higher than for individuals without psychotic experiences (0.16%) and there was meta-analytic evidence of dose–response with severity/persistence of psychotic experiences. Individual studies also suggest a role for motivational impairment and social dysfunction. The evidence for conversion to non-psychotic outcome was weaker, although findings were similar in direction.
Conclusions Subthreshold self-reported psychotic experiences in epidemiological non-help-seeking samples index psychometric risk for psychotic disorder, with strong modifier effects of severity/persistence. These data can serve as the population reference for selected and variable samples of help-seeking individuals at ultra-high risk, for whom much higher transition rates have been indicated.
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Fluixá, Sanmartín Javier. "Adaptation strategies of dam safety management to new climate change scenarios informed by risk indicators." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/157634.
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[ES] Las grandes presas, así como los diques de protección, son infraestructuras críticas cuyo fallo puede conllevar importantes consecuencias económicas y sociales. Tradicionalmente, la gestión del riesgo y la definición de estrategias de adaptación en la toma de decisiones han asumido la invariabilidad de las condiciones climáticas, incluida la persistencia de patrones históricos de variabilidad natural y la frecuencia de eventos extremos. Sin embargo, se espera que el cambio climático afecte de forma importante a los sistemas hídricos y comprometa la seguridad de las presas, lo que puede acarrear posibles impactos negativos en términos de costes económicos, sociales y ambientales. Los propietarios y operadores de presas deben por tanto adaptar sus estrategias de gestión y adaptación a medio y largo plazo a los nuevos escenarios climáticos.
En la presente tesis se ha desarrollado una metodología integral para incorporar los impactos del cambio climático en la gestión de la seguridad de presas y en el apoyo a la toma de decisiones. El objetivo es plantear estrategias de adaptación que incorporen la variabilidad de los futuros riesgos, así como la incertidumbre asociada a los nuevos escenarios climáticos.
El impacto del cambio climático en la seguridad de presas se ha estructurado utilizando modelos de riesgo y mediante una revisión bibliográfica interdisciplinaria sobre sus potenciales efectos. Esto ha permitido establecer un enfoque dependiente del tiempo que incorpore la evolución futura del riesgo, para lo cual se ha definido un nuevo indicador que evalúa cuantitativamente la eficiencia a largo plazo de las medidas de reducción de riesgo. Además, para integrar la incertidumbre de los escenarios futuros en la toma de decisiones, la metodología propone una estrategia robusta que permite establecer secuencias optimizadas de implementación de medidas correctoras para la adaptación al cambio climático. A pesar de las dificultades para asignar probabilidades a eventos específicos, esta metodología permite un análisis sistemático y objetivo, reduciendo considerablemente la subjetividad.
Esta metodología se ha aplicado al caso real de una presa española susceptible a los efectos del cambio climático. El análisis se centra en el escenario hidrológico, donde las avenidas son la principal carga a la que está sometida la presa. Respecto de análisis previos de la presa, los resultados obtenidos proporcionan nueva y valiosa información sobre la evolución de los riesgos futuros y sobre cómo abordarlos. En general, se espera un aumento del riesgo con el tiempo; esto ha llevado a plantear nuevas medidas de adaptación que no están justificadas en la situación actual. Esta es la primera aplicación documentada de un análisis exhaustivo de los impactos del cambio climático sobre el riesgo de rotura de una presa que sirve como marco de referencia para la definición de estrategias de adaptación a largo plazo y la evaluación de su eficiencia.[CAT] Les grans preses, així com els dics de protecció, són infraestructures crítiques que si fallen poden produir importants conseqüències econòmiques i socials. Tradicionalment, la gestió del risc i la definició d'estratègies d'adaptació en la presa de decisions han assumit la invariabilitat de les condicions climàtiques, inclosa la persistència de patrons històrics de variabilitat natural i la probabilitat d'esdeveniments extrems. No obstant això, s'espera que el canvi climàtic afecte de manera important als sistemes hídrics i comprometi la seguretat de les preses, la qual cosa pot implicar possibles impactes negatius en termes de costos econòmics, socials i ambientals. Els propietaris i operadors de preses deuen per tant adaptar les seues estratègies de gestió i adaptació a mitjà i llarg termini als nous escenaris climàtics. En la present tesi s'ha desenvolupat una metodologia integral per a incorporar els impactes del canvi climàtic en la gestió de la seguretat de preses i en el suport a la presa de decisions. L'objectiu és plantejar estratègies d'adaptació que incorporen la variabilitat dels futurs riscos, així com la incertesa associada als nous escenaris climàtics. L'impacte del canvi climàtic en la seguretat de preses s'ha estructurat utilitzant models de risc i mitjançant una revisió bibliogràfica interdisciplinària sobre els seus potencials efectes. Això ha permès establir un enfocament dependent del temps que incorpori l'evolució futura del risc, per a això s'ha definit un nou indicador que avalua quantitativament l'eficiència a llarg termini de les mesures de reducció de risc. A més, per a integrar la incertesa dels escenaris futurs en la presa de decisions, la metodologia proposa una estratègia robusta que permet establir seqüències optimitzades d'implementació de mesures correctores per a l'adaptació al canvi climàtic. A pesar de les dificultats per a assignar probabilitats a esdeveniments específics, esta metodologia permet una anàlisi sistemàtica i objectiva, reduint considerablement la subjectivitat. Aquesta metodologia s'ha aplicat al cas real d'una presa espanyola susceptible a l'efecte del canvi climàtic. L'anàlisi se centra en l'escenari hidrològic, on les avingudes són la principal càrrega a la qual està sotmesa la presa. Respecte d'anàlisis prèvies de la presa, els resultats obtinguts proporcionen nova i valuosa informació sobre l'evolució dels riscos futurs i sobre com abordar-los. En general, s'espera un augment del risc amb el temps; això ha portat a plantejar noves mesures d'adaptació que no estarien justificades en la situació actual. Aquesta és la primera aplicació documentada d'una anàlisi exhaustiva dels impactes del canvi climàtic sobre el risc de trencament d'una presa que serveix com a marc de referència per a la definició d'estratègies d'adaptació a llarg termini i l'avaluació de la seua eficiencia.
[EN] Large dams as well as protective dikes and levees are critical infrastructures whose failure has major economic and social consequences. Risk assessment approaches and decision-making strategies have traditionally assumed the stationarity of climatic conditions, including the persistence of historical patterns of natural variability and the likelihood of extreme events. However, climate change has a major impact on the world's water systems and is endangering dam safety, leading to potentially damaging impacts in terms of economic, social and environmental costs. Owners and operators of dams must adapt their mid- and long-term management and adaptation strategies to new climate scenarios. This thesis proposes a comprehensive approach to incorporate climate change impacts on dam safety management and decision-making support. The goal is to design adaptation strategies that incorporate the non-stationarity of future risks as well as the uncertainties associated with new climate scenarios. Based on an interdisciplinary review of the state-of-the-art research on its potential effects, the global impact of climate change on dam safety is structured using risk models. This allows a time-dependent approach to be established to consider the potential evolution of risk with time. Consequently, a new indicator is defined to support the quantitative assessment of the long-term efficiency of risk reduction measures. Additionally, in order to integrate the uncertainty of future scenarios, the approach is enhanced with a robust decision-making strategy that helps establish the consensus sequence of measures to be implemented for climate change adaptation. Despite the difficulties to allocate probabilities to specific events, such framework allows for a systematic and objective analysis, reducing considerably the subjectivity. Such a methodology is applied to a real case study of a Spanish dam subjected to the effects of climate change. The analysis focus on hydrological scenarios, where floods are the main load to which the dam is subjected. The results provide valuable new information with respect to the previously existing analysis of the dam regarding the evolution of future risks and how to cope with it. In general, risks are expected to increase with time and, as a result, new adaptation measures that are not justifiable for the present situation are recommended. This is the first documented application of a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on dam failure risk and serves as a reference benchmark for the definition of long-term adaptation strategies and the evaluation of their efficiency.
Fluixá Sanmartín, J. (2020). Adaptation strategies of dam safety management to new climate change scenarios informed by risk indicators [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/157634
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Jaber, Hadi. "Modeling and analysis of propagation risks in complex projects : application to the development of new vehicles." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016SACLC022/document.
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La gestion de projets complexes nécessite d’orchestrer la coopération de centaines de personnes provenant de diverses entreprises, professions et compétences, de travailler sur des milliers d'activités, livrables, objectifs, actions, décisions et risques. En outre, ces nombreux éléments du projet sont de plus en plus interconnectés, et aucune décision ou action n’est indépendante. Cette complexité croissante est l'un des plus grands défis de la gestion de projet et l'une des causes de l'échec du projet en termes de dépassements de coûts et des retards. Par exemple, dans l'industrie automobile, l'augmentation de l'orientation du marché et de la complexité croissante des véhicules a changé la structure de gestion des projets de développement de nouveaux véhicules à partir d'une structure hiérarchique à une structure en réseau, y compris le constructeur, mais aussi de nombreux fournisseurs. Les dépendances entre les éléments du projet augmentent les risques, car les problèmes dans un élément peuvent se propager à d'autres éléments qui en dépendent directement ou indirectement. La complexité génère un certain nombre de phénomènes, positifs ou négatifs, isolés ou en chaînes, locaux ou globaux, qui vont plus ou moins interférer avec la convergence du projet vers ses objectifs.L'objectif de la thèse est donc de réduire les risques associés à la complexité des projets véhicules en augmentant la compréhension de cette complexité et de la coordination des acteurs du projet. Pour ce faire, une première question de recherche est de prioriser les actions pour atténuer les risques liés à la complexité. Puis, une seconde question de recherche est de proposer un moyen d'organiser et de coordonner les acteurs afin de faire face efficacement avec les phénomènes liés à la complexité identifiés précédemment.La première question sera abordée par la modélisation de complexité du projet en analysant les phénomènes liés à la complexité dans le projet, à deux niveaux. Tout d'abord, une modélisation descriptive de haut niveau basée facteur est proposé. Elle permet de mesurer et de prioriser les zones de projet où la complexité peut avoir le plus d'impact. Deuxièmement, une modélisation de bas niveau basée sur les graphes est proposée. Elle permet de modéliser plus finement les éléments du projet et leurs interdépendances. Des contributions ont été faites sur le processus complet de modélisation, y compris l'automatisation de certaines étapes de collecte de données, afin d'augmenter les performances et la diminution de l'effort et le risque d'erreur. Ces deux modèles peuvent être utilisés en conséquence; une première mesure de haut niveau peut permettre de se concentrer sur certains aspects du projet, où la modélisation de bas niveau sera appliquée, avec un gain global d'efficacité et d'impact. Basé sur ces modèles, certaines contributions sont faites pour anticiper le comportement potentiel du projet. Des analyses topologiques et de propagation sont proposées pour détecter et hiérarchiser les éléments essentiels et les interdépendances critiques, tout en élargissant le sens du mot polysémique "critique".La deuxième question de recherche sera traitée en introduisant une méthodologie de « Clustering » pour proposer des groupes d'acteurs dans les projets de développement de nouveaux produits, en particulier pour les acteurs impliqués dans de nombreuses interdépendances liées aux livrables à différentes phases du cycle de vie du projet. Cela permet d'accroître la coordination entre les acteurs interdépendants qui ne sont pas toujours formellement reliés par la structure hiérarchique de l'organisation du projet. Cela permet à l'organisation du projet d’être effectivement plus proche de la structure en « réseau » qu’elle devrait avoir. L'application industrielle aux projets de développement de nouveaux véhicules a montré des résultats prometteurs pour les contributions aux deux questions de rechercheThe management of complex projects requires orchestrating the cooperation of hundreds of individuals from various companies, professions and backgrounds, working on thousands of activities, deliverables, and risks. As well, these numerous project elements are more and more interconnected, and no decision or action is independent. This growing complexity is one of the greatest challenges of project management and one of the causes for project failure in terms of cost overruns and time delays. For instance, in the automotive industry, increasing market orientation and growing complexity of automotive product has changed the management structure of the vehicle development projects from a hierarchical to a networked structure, including the manufacturer but also numerous suppliers. Dependencies between project elements increase risks, since problems in one element may propagate to other directly or indirectly dependent elements. Complexity generates a number of phenomena, positive or negative, isolated or in chains, local or global, that will more or less interfere with the convergence of the project towards its goals. The thesis aim is thus to reduce the risks associated with the complexity of the vehicle development projects by increasing the understanding of this complexity and the coordination of project actors. To do so, a first research question is to prioritize actions to mitigate complexity-related risks. Then, a second research question is to propose a way to organize and coordinate actors in order to cope efficiently with the previously identified complexity-related phenomena.The first question will be addressed by modeling project complexity and by analyzing complexity-related phenomena within the project, at two levels. First, a high-level factor-based descriptive modeling is proposed. It permits to measure and prioritize project areas where complexity may have the most impact. Second, a low-level graph-based modeling is proposed, based on the finer modeling of project elements and interdependencies. Contributions have been made on the complete modeling process, including the automation of some data-gathering steps, in order to increase performance and decrease effort and error risk. These two models can be used consequently; a first high-level measure can permit to focus on some areas of the project, where the low-level modeling will be applied, with a gain of global efficiency and impact. Based on these models, some contributions are made to anticipate potential behavior of the project. Topological and propagation analyses are proposed to detect and prioritize critical elements and critical interdependencies, while enlarging the sense of the polysemous word “critical."The second research question will be addressed by introducing a clustering methodology to propose groups of actors in new product development projects, especially for the actors involved in many deliverable-related interdependencies in different phases of the project life cycle. This permits to increase coordination between interdependent actors who are not always formally connected via the hierarchical structure of the project organization. This allows the project organization to be actually closer to what a networked structure should be. The automotive-based industrial application has shown promising results for the contributions to both research questions. Finally, the proposed methodology is discussed in terms of genericity and seems to be applicable to a wide set of complex projects for decision support
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Kaymaz, N., M. Drukker, Roselind Lieb, Hans-Ulrich Wittchen, N. Werbeloff, M. Weiser, T. Lataster, and Os J. van. "Do subthreshold psychotic experiences predict clinical outcomes in unselected non-help-seeking population-based samples? A systematic review and meta-analysis, enriched with new results." Technische Universität Dresden, 2012. https://tud.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A27014.
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Background The base rate of transition from subthreshold psychotic experiences (the exposure) to clinical psychotic disorder (the outcome) in unselected, representative and non-help-seeking population-based samples is unknown.
Method A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted of representative, longitudinal population-based cohorts with baseline assessment of subthreshold psychotic experiences and follow-up assessment of psychotic and non-psychotic clinical outcomes.
Results Six cohorts were identified with a 3–24-year follow-up of baseline subthreshold self-reported psychotic experiences. The yearly risk of conversion to a clinical psychotic outcome in exposed individuals (0.56%) was 3.5 times higher than for individuals without psychotic experiences (0.16%) and there was meta-analytic evidence of dose–response with severity/persistence of psychotic experiences. Individual studies also suggest a role for motivational impairment and social dysfunction. The evidence for conversion to non-psychotic outcome was weaker, although findings were similar in direction.
Conclusions Subthreshold self-reported psychotic experiences in epidemiological non-help-seeking samples index psychometric risk for psychotic disorder, with strong modifier effects of severity/persistence. These data can serve as the population reference for selected and variable samples of help-seeking individuals at ultra-high risk, for whom much higher transition rates have been indicated.
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Fredriksson, Greta. "Property Prices and New Information on Flood Risks : A distance defined Difference-in-Differences Analysis in Sweden." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-448010.
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In this paper, I estimate the economic cost associated with flood risks in Sweden. A hedonic price model combined with a distance defined difference-in-differences method is used to estimate the marginal change in property prices due to new information regarding flood risks. The results reveal a robust effect on owner-occupied properties from predicted floods from the sea. The willingness to pay for increasing the distance to the predicted flooded area is estimated to be 0.187% per meter. A similar, though smaller (0.045% per meter) effect is found for all properties in proximity to floods from streams. The effects of the information regarding flood risks are limited to the year after the release. The results are especially important in a Swedish setting due to its numerous streams and lakes and extensive coastline. That the value of the risk of floods is limited to one year should be further investigated and considered when establishing policies regarding the information provided when a property is listed for sale.
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Gao, Shen. "Does the concept of 'resilience' offer new insights for effective policy-making? : an analysis of its feasibility and practicability for flood risk management in the UK." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2018. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/274918.
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The concept of resilience is increasingly applied to policy-making. However, despite its widespread use, resilience remains poorly defined, open to multiple interpretations, and challenging to translate into practical policy instruments. Three particularly problematic aspects of resilience concern its rigid conceptualisation of adaptation and learning, its de-politicised interpretation of participatory decision-making, and the ill-defined role and relevance of social vulnerability indicators. My research analyses these three aspects within the context of flood risk management in the UK, which is uniquely suited to studying the practicability of a cross-disciplinary concept like resilience, because it connects issues of natural resource management, social planning, and disaster management. First, I analyse two case studies of experimental pilot projects in natural flood management. Through studying project reports, and interviewing stakeholders involved in project implementation, I determine whether the theorised learning-by-doing method in resilience is reflected in experiences from real experimental projects. Secondly, I use one of these case studies to map out the political structure of local participatory bodies in flood management, and also conduct a small survey of local community groups. The purpose of this second study is to determine if collaborative methods can indeed lead to a knowledge-driven policy process as envisioned in resilience literature. Lastly, I use statistical analysis to compare a traditional flood management model and a socio-economic model. The aim of the statistical modelling is to determine whether socio-economic factors are indeed useful for informing flooding policy, and whether they offer new insights not already being used in modern flood management. I find that resilience gives insufficient consideration to the importance of political constraints and economic trade-offs in policy-making, and that evidence for the usefulness of socio-economic factors is inconclusive. Future work could focus on further refining the statistical modelling to pinpoint empirically verifiable indicators of resilience.
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Schneemann, Sandra [Verfasser], Gerd [Akademischer Betreuer] MühlheußEr, and Christian [Akademischer Betreuer] Deutscher. "New insights into tournament theory: effort, sabotage, risk-taking, and heterogeneity; empirical analysis of sporting contests / Sandra Schneemann ; Gerd Mühlheußer, Christian Deutscher." Bielefeld : Universitätsbibliothek Bielefeld, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1140586068/34.
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Mussen, Filip. "The evaluation of methods for benefit-risk assessment of medicines and the development of a new model using multi-criteria decision analysis." Thesis, Cardiff University, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.438761.
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Goussard, Heleen. "The relationship between various risk factors and the cost of equity premium implied by analysts' forecasts on the New York Stock Exchange." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/27961.
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The cost of equity is used extensively for capital allocation decisions, and the various methods used to estimate it often result in materially different outcomes. A model of the impact of known risk factors on the implied cost of equity used by equity analysts, who are seen as informed market participants, could be a guideline and sense check for other professionals estimating cost of equity for capital allocation decisions. This study, an implementation of Arbitrage Pricing Theory, attempts to create a parsimonious model of factors that are associated with the implied cost of equity premium utilised by equity analysts on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE"). After limiting the sample to NYSE-listed companies that were primarily exposed to US macro-economic conditions and were likely to be valued overwhelmingly on a going-concern basis, the test sample consisted of 5,343 company quarters covering the period 2006 to 2015. In the first part of the methodology, sixteen factors identified from previous literature as possibly influencing the cost of equity were tested for their association with the implied equity risk premium, as calculated from analysts' two-year earnings forecasts and target share prices using the Easton-method. Only those factors that were statistically significantly associated with the implied cost of equity were retained for the second part of the methodology, in which mixed effects modelling and optimisation using the Akaike information criterion was used to find a parsimonious model linking the statistically most significant factors to the implied cost of equity. The final model could explain 40% of the variation in implied risk premium by the fixed effects (specified variables), and 62% when the random effects (observable effects of unspecified variables) were included. The study found that the risk free rate was most strongly (and negatively) associated with the size of the implied equity risk premium. Other factors that are statistically significantly associated with the implied equity risk premium are the two-year beta (+), the profitability dummy variable (-), return on equity (-), two-year share price volatility (+), long-term growth (+), Market momentum (+), and the debt to equity ratio (+). It was further found that not all factors which have historically been shown to influence returns are significantly associated with implied cost of equity estimates, which is contrary to expectations in a fully efficient market, where the only difference in the two would result from the information that changes cash flow expectations or the risk profile of the cash flows. This study contributes to the current body of literature on cost of equity in the following ways: • To the author's knowledge, this study combines a far wider array of factors of all types than any of the previous studies on the topic, and uses target prices rather than market prices to calculate the implied cost of equity premium. • The study uses the adaptive and recursive option valuation model to eliminate companies for which the testing would not be relevant. • The study used mixed effects modelling to measure the impact of the various factors on the cost of equity premium.
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Jowsey, Tanisha. "Risky Discourse: pesticide use and recent developments in the greening of New Zealand's pipfruit industry." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Sociology and Anthropology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1010.
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The New Zealand pipfruit industry has changed dramatically over the past fifteen years due to major industry restructuring and deregulation, and also due to the adoption of more environmentally sustainable growing strategies. This thesis traces the socio-political context of pesticide use in the pipfruit industry over the past ten years (couched within a hundred year trajectory), through a content and discourse analysis of appropriate print and electronic material. The content analysis addresses the ways in which pesticide use has been framed in New Zealand's fruit journal entitled The Orchardist, and tracks its promotion of the ENZA Integrated Fruit Production program that was introduced to New Zealand pipfruit growers during the summer of 1997/98. The Foucauldian discourse analysis explores how print media reflects and produces knowledge, and how such knowledge causes transformation within the pipfruit industry. Identified in the print media are several central ideologies and themes that frequently serve as conceptual frameworks for interpreting issues that arise in the pipfruit industry, the most prominent of which, is risk. Therefore, risk is the key discourse explored in this thesis. The combined content and discourse analysis signal ways in which power operates through discourse to influence ideologies, world-making and modes of production.
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Fietje, Leo. "Developing best practice in environmental impact assessment using risk management ideas, concepts and principles." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Civil Engineering, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1107.
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This thesis argues that the management of environmental impacts has many analogies with the management of risk and practice can be improved by using ideas, concepts and principles found in the management of risk in other spheres of human activity. An overview of the challenges faced by environmental impact practitioners in New Zealand and reinforcement of its importance to the sustainable management of natural and physical resources under New Zealand's Resource Management Act is provided. Key risk management ideas, concepts and principles drawn from a variety of sources are listed and parallels drawn between these and existing environmental impact assessment practice in New Zealand. From this list a number are selected and opportunities for improving environmental impact assessment practice are explored. A number of opportunities are identified, starting with the need for a common language and methodology amongst practitioners. Categorisation of impacts to assist transparency of analysis and expression using frequency-consequence curves to aid and promote consistency of decision-making are further areas of opportunity. Risk management has several well-developed techniques for dealing with uncertainty and selection of assessment endpoints. The connection between communication of risk and public perception is an area with significant potential for communication about environmental impacts. Challenges with effective public participation in environmental decision-making are backgrounded and risk management practised in two high profile areas examined for opportunity for improved practice. Neither appears to offer opportunity for improvement in key decision-making areas. A relatively new indicator approach towards risk assessment called "healthy systems method" appears to have significant potential for cost-effective analysis of systems of various types and at various levels. This thesis identifies a number of other areas of risk management requiring further research to determine potential for achieving better practice in environmental impact assessment.
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Bortlová, Hana. "Vstup na nový trh a analýza potencionálních rizik pro firmu." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-233052.
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Lee, Sophia Seung-Yoon. "Labour market risks and institutional determinants : an international comparative study of institutions and non-standard employment with a focus on East Asia." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2011. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:25328c2c-1db6-4ccb-ade3-78f2e05d7cad.
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Korea and Japan stand out in the group of OECD countries for their rapid increase in, and high levels of, non-standard employment. The empirical evidence leads us to a two-part puzzle: Why are there so many precarious workers in Korea and Japan? And what are the institutional determinants of such labour market risks? This thesis commences by introducing the concept of 'risk shift', and the fuzzy-set ideal type approach is employed to conduct a comparative study of 18 countries. The labour market risks in Korea and Japan are then compared in an international context with 16 selected OECD countries. Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis is employed to investigate the institutional determinants of labour market risks. It then focuses on the increase in non-standard employement in Korea and Japan. Taiwan is also included as a contrasting case, the study taking an institutional approach employing Comparative Historical Analysis. Chapters employing CHA examine how the different welfare production regimes evolved and how they matter in explaining the high rate of non-standard employment in East Asia. The new risk discussion, the argument on the definition and impact of deindustrialization and lastly theories on East Asian welfare states are revisited in the conclusion of this thesis. Finally, I critically discuss the notion of precarious workers and highlight the centrality of social policy that their organizational configuration affects political culture, the formation of the production system, the structure of the labour market and the kind of risk a country could experience.
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Samad, Shameer Sheik. "An analysis of the impact of sea level rise on Lake Ellesmere - Te Waihora and the L2 drainage network, New Zealand." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Civil Engineering, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1186.
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The potential impact of sea level rise on Lake Ellesmere - Te Wiahora and the subsequent effect on the efficiency and performance of the L2 Drainage network was investigated in relation to the operation of the L2 Drainage scheme. Lake Ellesmere is currently manually opened for drainage to the sea when the lake levels reach 1.05 m above mean sea level (asl) in summer and 1.13 m asl in winter. With a rise in sea level, the lake opening levels for both summer and winter would have to increase in order to maintain the current hydraulic gradient. Higher lake levels would impact drainage schemes such as the L2 drainage network. An integral research approach was used to study this potential impact, including fieldwork, analysis of data, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling. Both the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the L2 catchment and river were reproduced with reasonable accuracy by the use of computational models. Simulations of 2, 10 and 20 year annual recurrence intervals (ARI) rainstorm events coupled with higher lake levels show increase flooding along the length of the river. An increase in the lake opening levels, coupled with south-easterly wind was shown to have increased the degree of flooding on adjacent farmlands, but only a 3.50 per cent increase of water level (for all conditions simulated) 3.5 km upstream of the L2 River. The study clearly shows that weed growth within the L2 River plays an important part in controlling the water level within the channel. Results show it was responsible for an observed water level rise of 0.30 m from the winter to summer season. The combined use of hydraulic and hydrological models provides an effective tool to study future impacts on the drainage efficiency and performance of the L2 drainage scheme and other similar systems. The potential for both models to be used as a predictive tool for improving the operation of the L2 scheme and Lake Ellesmere was only limited by the difficulty in estimating model parameters especially for the hydrologic model.
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Blair, Bryan W. ""Trust me, I'm the principal!" : a new conceptual model of trust for educational leaders /." Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2007. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd2047.pdf.
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Brown, Tyra L. "The Next Disaster... Will Be Televised| An Exploratory Qualitative Media Analysis of Hurricane Preparedness in Television Newscasts." Thesis, Nova Southeastern University, 2017. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10264499.
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Major hurricane landfalls are the most dangerous natural hazard threats experienced in the U.S. Television news is a primary sources of hurricane hazard information and has the ability to influence what viewers understand about and how they respond to these events. While it is understood that media plays a central role in communicating weather, it is unknown whether or not news media content communicates the recommended hurricane hazard adjustments that are needed for preparedness and protection. Thus this study supports prior research calling for a closer examination of the role and effects of visual information in media documents. Using the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, the present research employs qualitative media analysis to explore the framing of hurricane preparedness through television newscasts covering Hurricane Katrina from August 23-29, 2005. Key findings from this study suggest that there are five common frames through which hurricane information is presented to viewers of the national news broadcasts surveyed in this study. Preparedness information was found to be mainly represented through visual content but sparsely mentioned in reporting. The study also found that more often visuals were used to aid story development instead of provide educational or instructional messages that model the adoption of hazard adjustments and have the potential to motivate protective actions and behaviors by helping to increase self-efficacy. The present study concludes by discussing underlying aspects of conflict present within the media frames and offering recommendations for better integration of media content into risk communication campaigns for severe weather.
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Spears, Paul Wesley. "Parameters Influencing Seismic Structural Collapse with Emphasis on Vertical Accelerations and the Possible Related Risks for New and Existing Structures in the Central and Eastern United States." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/42793.
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This thesis presents the results of basically two separate studies. The first study involved identifying structural and earthquake parameters that influenced seismic structural collapse. The parameter study involved nonlinear dynamic analyses using single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) bilinear models. Four parameters were associated with the SDOF models â the lateral stiffness, the post-yield stiffness ratio, the yield strength, and the stability ratio (P-Delta effects). Then, three parameters were associated with the ground motions â the records themselves, the lateral ground motion scales, and the vertical ground motion scales.From the parameter study, it was found that the post-yield stiffness ratio augmented by P-Delta effects (rp) in conjunction with the ductility demand was the best predictor of collapse. These two quantities include all four structural parameters and the seismic displacement demands. It was also discovered in the parameter study that vertical accelerations did not significantly influence lateral displacements unless a given combination of model and earthquake parameters was altered such that the model was on the verge of collapsing.
The second study involved Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) using bilinear SDOF models representative of low rise buildings in both the Western United States (WUS) and the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). Models were created that represented three, five, seven, and nine story buildings. Five sites from both the WUS and CEUS were used. Four different damage measures were used to assess the performance of the buildings. The IDA study was primarily interested in the response of the structures between the earthquake intensities that have a 10 percent probability of occurring in 50 years (10/50) and 2 percent probability of occurring in 50 years (2/50).
The results showed that all structures could be in danger of severe damage and possible collapse, depending on which damage measure and which earthquake was used. It is important to note, though, that the aforementioned is based on a damage-based collapse rule. The damage-based rule results were highly variable.
Using an intensity-based collapse rule, proved to be more consistent. Due to the nature of the bilinear models, only those structures with negative rp values ever collapsed using an intensity-based collapse rule. Most of the WUS models had positive rp values and many of the CEUS models had negative rp values. While many of the CEUS structures had negative rp values, which made them prone to collapse, most of the CEUS structures analyzed did not collapse at the 2/50 intensity. The reason was that the periods of the CEUS models were much longer than the approximate periods that were required to determine the strengths. Consequently, the strength capacity of most of the CEUS models was much greater than the seismic strength demands. While many of the CEUS models did have sudden collapses due to the large negative rp values, the collapses happened at intensities that were generally much higher than the 2/50 event.
In the IDA, it was also shown that vertical accelerations can significantly affect the ductility demands of a model with a negative rp post-yield stiffness ratio as the earthquake intensity approaches the collapse intensity. Since IDA is concerned with establishing collapse limit states, it seems that the most accurate collapse assessments would include vertical accelerations.
Master of Science
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Vodička, Radek. "Analýza rizika strategického finančního plánu minipivovaru." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-262172.
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The aim of the masters thesis is to analyse the risk of the strategic and financial plan of a microbrewery as well as to decide whether the proposed investment project is feasible due to identified information of risk. The thesis describes and analyzes the environment of the particular enterprise by implementing a PEST Analysis, Porters Five Forces analysis, Financial Analysis, Internal Analysis and a SWOT Analysis. The result of the strategic analyses are implemented to propose an investment project with the appropriate financial plan of the investment and the Net Present Value calculation. The key risk factor is identified by implementing the Monte Carlo simulation followed by a Sensitivity Analysis and the impact of the key risk factor is analysed consecutively. Considering all the previous analyses and also ascertained information the recommendation is made to realize the investment as the result of the thesis.
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Krausová, Veronika. "Návrh řízení rizik vybraného podnikatelského subjektu." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Ústav soudního inženýrství, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-318265.
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The diploma thesis is dealing with analysis and evaluation of risks of the co-operative society related to introduction of the new product concerning the field of negotiations with supplier, logistics and warehouse management. The first part describes the theoretical basis of project management, risk analysis and management, negotiation with supplier, logistics and warehouse management. The second part is dedicated to the analysis of the current situation of the selected company and the last part deals with risks in the area of supply-customer relationship using the RIPRAN method. The main goal of the diploma thesis is to propose recommendations for reduction of individual risks connected to the introduction of the new product in the field of negotiation with supplier, logistics and warehouse management.
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Malm, Victor, and Tobias Bjurhall. "Virtuella valutor : riskanalys av nya betalningsmedel." Thesis, Högskolan i Borås, Akademin för textil, teknik och ekonomi, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-556.
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Historien om betalningsmedel vänder under 2010-talet blad och börjar på ett nyttkapitel. Nästa steg i den monetära utvecklingen sker när de virtuella valutorna ökar ianvändning. Den virtuella valutan Bitcoin introducerades av Satoshi Nakamato år2009 och är en digital valuta, vilket innebär att den inte är kopplad till någon fysisktillgång med rättslig innebörd. När ett nytt betalningsmedel introduceras ärfundamentala faktorer gällande samhällets acceptans och nyttjande ett ekonomisktpussel. Hur kommer det sig att individer byter verkliga varor mot en papperssedel, ettmynt eller en elektronisk signal? Att inneha och aktivt använda nya betalningsmedelsom virtuella valutor medför risker som många inte är bekanta vid. Organisationeroch konsumenter som öppnar upp portarna för nya betalningsmedel måste ha kunskapom dess konsekvenser, både positiva och negativa. Studien syftar till att belysa derisker som uppstår när nya betalningsmedel som Bitcoin gör entré. Forskningsfrågankring vilka risker innehav och nyttjande av virtuella valutor medför besvaras genomen kvalitativ analys av främst forskningsartiklar. Vår studie tyder på att riskerna kringvirtuella valutor som Bitcoin relaterar till förtroende för betalningsmedlet. De flestariskerna uppstår vid innehav av Bitcoin och relaterar inte till tekniska faktorer.The history of means of payment is taking new shape during the 2010:th decade andstarts on a new chapter. The next step in the monetary evolution will take place oncevirtual currencies become more frequently used. The virtual currency called Bitcoinwas introduced by Satoshi Nakamoto in the year of 2009 and is a digital currency,which means that it is not connected to a physical good with a forensic purpose.When a new mean of payment is introduced fundamental factors regarding theacceptance of society and utilization becomes a financial puzzle. How can it be thatindividuals exchange physical goods for a paper bill, a coin or just somethingelectronic? To possess Bitcoin and to use new means of payment on a frequent basisbring risks many users are not familiar with. Organizations and consumers whomopen up their gates to new means of payment need to gain knowledge ofconsequences both positive and negative. The purpose of this study is to highlight theaforementioned risks, which arise from the fact that new means of payment likeBitcoin is introduced. The research issue regarding which risks may arise frompossession and usage of virtual currencies are concluded by a qualitative analysisresearch containing mostly scientific articles. Our study depicts that the risksassociated with virtual currencies like Bitcoin, are all somehow related to the trust forthe specific mean of payment. Most risks arise from actually possessing a Bitcoin andhence not as much related to the technological element.
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Malý, Lukáš. "Analýza ekonomických rizik investičního projektu." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-227549.
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This thesis focuses on considering of the investor economic risk during the preparation of the investment project including the financial plan, its evaluation and suggestions of proposals for risk reduction. Correct decisions on implementation or rejection of the project are based on the realistic financial plan. However, expenses and revenues are only implied and are burdened with some variability that leads to the risk of failure to achieve the planned values. To assess the acceptability of certain risks for the investor, an analysis of risk factors was conducted. The factors are first identified for their significance and potential negative impact, then the most risk factors are evaluated and determined whether it is necessary to further tracking or the risk to the investor is acceptable.
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Silva, Allan Jonathan da. "A new finite difference method for pricing and hedging interest rate derivatives : comparative analysis and the case of the idi option." Laboratório Nacional de Computação Científica, 2015. https://tede.lncc.br/handle/tede/208.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq
Propomos um método numérico de diferenças finitas para substituir os esquemas clássicos utilizados para solucionar EDPs em engenharia financeira. A motivação para desenvolvê-lo advém da perda de precisão na tentativa de estabilizar a solução via up-wind no termo convectivo bem como o fato de que oscilações espúrias ocorrem quando a volatilidade é baixa, o que é comumente observado nos mercados de taxas de juros. Ao contrário dos esquemas clássicos, nosso método cobre todo o espectro de volatilidade da dinâmica das taxas de juros. Nós comparamos resultados analíticos e numéricos precificando e realizando o hedge de uma variedade de contratos financeiros de renda fixa para mostrar que o método que desenvolvemos é confiável e altamente competitivo. O método se adapta bem a derivativos exóticos de taxas de juros, incluindo um derivativo dependente da trajetória denominado Opção IDI (índice brasileiro de depósito interbancário). O método dá ênfase à abordagem realística da capitalização discreta do índice em detrimento da capitalização contínua explorada frequentemente na literatura.
We propose a second order accurate numerical finite difference method to replace the classical schemes used to solving PDEs in financial engineering. The motivation for doing so stems from the accuracy loss while trying to stabilize the solution via the up-wind trick in the convective term as well as the fact that spurious oscillation solutions occur when volatilities are low. This is actually the range that we commonly observe in the interest rate markets. Unlike the classical schemes, our method covers the whole spectrum of volatilities in the interest rate dynamics. We compare the analytical and numerical results by both pricing and hedging a variety of fixed income financial contracts to show that the method we developed is reliable and highly competitive. The method adapts well to exotic interest rate derivative securities, including a path-dependent derivative named IDI (the Brazilian Interbank Deposit Rate Index) option. The method highlights the use of the realistic discretely compounding interest rate scheme, in detriment of the continuously compounding case often exploited in the literature.
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Mararuai, Amanda N. "Market access of Papua New Guinea bananas (Musa spp.) with particular respect to banana fly (Bactrocera musae (Tryon)) (Diptera: Tephritidae)." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2010. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/33229/1/Amanda_Mararuai_Thesis.pdf.
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International market access for fresh commodities is regulated by international accepted phytosanitary guidelines, the objectives of which are to reduce the biosecurity risk of plant pest and disease movement. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has identified banana as a potential export crop and to help meet international market access requirements, this thesis provides information for the development of a pest risk analysis (PRA) for PNG banana fruit. The PRA is a three step process which first identifies the pests associated with a particular commodity or pathway, then assesses the risk associated with those pests, and finally identifies risk management options for those pests if required.
As the first step of the PRA process, I collated a definitive list on the organisms associated with the banana plant in PNG using formal literature, structured interviews with local experts, grey literature and unpublished file material held in PNG field research stations. I identified 112 organisms (invertebrates, vertebrate, pathogens and weeds) associated with banana in PNG, but only 14 of these were reported as commonly requiring management. For these 14 I present detailed information summaries on their known biology and pest impact.
A major finding of the review was that of the 14 identified key pests, some research information occurs for 13. The single exception for which information was found to be lacking was Bactrocera musae (Tryon), the banana fly. The lack of information for this widely reported ‘major pest on PNG bananas’ would hinder the development of a PNG banana fruit PRA. For this reason the remainder of the thesis focused on this organism, particularly with respect to generation of information required by the PRA process.
Utilising an existing, but previously unanalysed fruit fly trapping database for PNG, I carried out a Geographic Information System analysis of the distribution and abundance of banana in four major regions of PNG. This information is required for a PRA to determine if banana fruit grown in different parts of the country are at different risks from the fly. Results showed that the fly was widespread in all cropping regions and that temperature and rainfall were not significantly correlated with banana fly abundance. Abundance of the fly was significantly correlated (albeit weakly) with host availability. The same analysis was done with four other PNG pest fruit flies and their responses to the environmental factors differed to banana fly and each other. This implies that subsequent PRA analyses for other PNG fresh commodities will need to investigate the risk of each of these flies independently.
To quantify the damage to banana fruit caused by banana fly in PNG, local surveys and one national survey of banana fruit infestation were carried out. Contrary to expectations, infestation was found to be very low, particularly in the widely grown commercial cultivar, Cavendish. Infestation of Cavendish fingers was only 0.41% in a structured, national survey of over 2 700 banana fingers. Follow up laboratory studies showed that fingers of Cavendish, and another commercial variety Lady-finger, are very poor hosts for B. musae, with very low host selection rates by female flies and very poor immature survival.
An analysis of a recent (within last decade) incursion of B. musae into the Gazelle Peninsula of East New Britain Province, PNG, provided the final set of B. musae data. Surveys of the fly on the peninsular showed that establishment and spread of the fly in the novel environment was very rapid and thus the fly should be regarded as being of high biosecurity concern, at least in tropical areas. Supporting the earlier impact studies, however, banana fly has not become a significant banana fruit problem on the Gazelle, despite bananas being the primary starch staple of the region.
The results of the research chapters are combined in the final Discussion in the form of a B. musae focused PRA for PNG banana fruit. Putting the thesis in a broader context, the Discussion also deals with the apparent discrepancy between high local abundance of banana fly and very low infestation rates. This discussion focuses on host utilisation patterns of specialist herbivores and suggests that local pest abundance, as determined by trapping or monitoring, need not be good surrogate for crop damage, despite this linkage being implicit in a number of international phytosanitary protocols.
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Suchý, Marek. "Analýza rizik v procesu posuzování shody výrobků." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta strojního inženýrství, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-229760.
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This Master’s thesis deals with the new approach and global policies and their consequences on the process of conformity assessment. Furthermore, the modules those are used for this assessment and risk analysis, which is essential in this process. The practical part is focused on an analysis of risks to the submersible pump sets series U with electric motor TU-85.