Academic literature on the topic 'New risk analyses'
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Journal articles on the topic "New risk analyses"
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Reid, Ian R., and Mark J. Bolland. "Calcium risk–benefit updated—New WHI analyses." Maturitas 77, no. 1 (January 2014): 1–3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.maturitas.2013.10.003.
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Szádeczky, Tamás. "Risk Management of New Technologies." Academic and Applied Research in Military and Public Management Science 15, no. 3 (December 31, 2016): 279–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.32565/aarms.2016.3.8.
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Nowadays businesses face multiple issues regarding new phenomena like cloud computing, which is a great business impetus: with the minimization of capital expenditure (CapEx) on IT infrastructure and personnel the efficiency can be improved. Technically this is not a new invention, but it is changing the approach to IT service, which has become outsourced, highly adaptive and scalable. Of course, the change in the technical landscape always implies security issues. Information security is not just a set of technical countermeasures: it is also a business requirement. It will help to avoid financial loss, avoid bad reputation or increase trust among clients.The article analyses business alignment of information security in the case of cloud services. It shows the results of research, where the theoretical and practical issues of risk assessment-based business decision support were analysed and proved. Its finding was that there are cases when we can do examination, but general automatized tools are inadequate. However specialized tools and sometimes third party certifications should give more support.
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Weart, C. Wayne. "New analyses of pancreatitis risk with incretin-based therapies." Pharmacy Today 20, no. 7 (July 2014): 17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1042-0991(15)30773-8.
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&NA;. "Third-generation OCs: increased VTE risk supported by new analyses." Inpharma Weekly &NA;, no. 1264 (November 2000): 21. http://dx.doi.org/10.2165/00128413-200012640-00050.
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&NA;. "Increased VTE risk of third-generation OCs supported by new analyses." Reactions Weekly &NA;, no. 828 (November 2000): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.2165/00128415-200008280-00004.
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Slooten, E., and N. Davies. "Hector's dolphin risk assessments: old and new analyses show consistent results." Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand 42, no. 1 (September 29, 2011): 49–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03036758.2011.606820.
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Depietri, Yaella, Khila Dahal, and Timon McPhearson. "Multi-hazard risks in New York City." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 12 (December 21, 2018): 3363–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3363-2018.
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Abstract. Megacities are predominantly concentrated along coastlines, making them exposed to a diverse mix of natural hazards. The assessment of climatic hazard risk to cities rarely has captured the multiple interactions that occur in complex urban systems. We present an improved method for urban multi-hazard risk assessment. We then analyze the risk of New York City as a case study to apply enhanced methods for multi-hazard risk assessment given the history of exposure to multiple types of natural hazards which overlap spatially and, in some cases, temporally in this coastal megacity. Our aim is to identify hotspots of multi-hazard risk to support the prioritization of adaptation strategies that can address multiple sources of risk to urban residents. We used socioeconomic indicators to assess vulnerabilities and risks to three climate-related hazards (i.e., heat waves, inland flooding and coastal flooding) at high spatial resolution. The analysis incorporates local experts' opinions to identify sources of multi-hazard risk and to weight indicators used in the multi-hazard risk assessment. Results demonstrate the application of multi-hazard risk assessment to a coastal megacity and show that spatial hotspots of multi-hazard risk affect similar local residential communities along the coastlines. Analyses suggest that New York City should prioritize adaptation in coastal zones and consider possible synergies and/or trade-offs to maximize impacts of adaptation and resilience interventions in the spatially overlapping areas at risk of impacts from multiple hazards.
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Kriaa, Siwar, Marc Bouissou, and Youssef Laarouchi. "A new safety and security risk analysis framework for industrial control systems." Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 233, no. 2 (April 19, 2018): 151–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x18765885.
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The migration of modern industrial control systems toward information and communication technologies exposes them to cyber-attacks that can alter the way they function, thereby causing adverse consequences on the system and its environment. It has consequently become crucial to consider security risks in traditional safety risk analyses for industrial systems controlled by modern industrial control system. We propose in this article a new framework for safety and security joint risk analysis for industrial control systems. S-cube (for supervisory control and data acquisition safety and security joint modeling) is a new model-based approach that enables, thanks to a knowledge base, formal modeling of the physical and functional architecture of cyber-physical systems and automatic generation of a qualitative and quantitative analysis encompassing safety risks (accidental) and security risks (malicious). We first give the principle and rationale of S-cube and then we illustrate its inputs and outputs on a case study.
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Oliveira, Mónica D., Carlos A. Bana e Costa, and Diana F. Lopes. "Designing and exploring risk matrices with MACBETH." International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making 17, no. 01 (January 2018): 45–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219622015500170.
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Risk matrices are adopted and recommended by many organizations, but the way they are usually constructed violates some basic theoretical principles, giving rise to inconsistent risk ratings. This paper studies ways in which multiple criteria and portfolio decision analyses can improve the design and deployment of risk matrices, using MACBETH (the “Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation TecHnique”). Firstly, it introduces ‘value risk-matrices’, built with MACBETH in the following modeling steps: (1) building a value measurement scale on each impact dimension and constructing a subjective probability scale, (2) additive aggregation of the value scales into a cumulative value scale, and (3) design of the value risk-matrix. The value and probability scores of risks are plotted in the matrix and its analysis informs the identification of mitigation actions, which can then be prioritized making use of the recent portfolio module of the MACBETH decision support system. Taken all together, the paper sketches a new modeling approach for Improving Risk Matrice s (IRIS).
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Burnett, T. L. "Petroleum Exploration Risk Reduction Using New Geoscience Technology." Energy Exploration & Exploitation 14, no. 6 (December 1996): 507–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/014459879601400602.
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As economics of the oil and gas industry become more restrictive, the need for new means of improving exploration risks and reducing expenses is becoming more acute. Partnerships between industry and academia are making significant improvements in four general areas: Seismic acquisition, reservoir characterization, quantitative structural modeling, and geochemical inversion. In marine seismic acquisition the vertical cable concept utilizes hydrophones suspended at fixed locations vertically within the water column by buoys. There are numerous advantages of vertical cable technology over conventional 3-D seismic acquisition. In a related methodology, ‘Borehole Seismic,’ seismic energy is passed between wells and valuable information on reservoir geometry, porosity, lithology, and oil saturation is extracted from the P-wave and S-wave data. In association with seismic methods of determining the external geometry and the internal properties of a reservoir, 3-dimensional sedimentation-simulation models, based on physical, hydrologic, erosional and transport processes, are being utilized for stratigraphic analysis. In addition, powerful, 1-D, coupled reaction-transport models are being used to simulate diagenesis processes in reservoir rocks. At the regional scale, the bridging of quantitative structural concepts with seismic interpretation has lead to breakthroughs in structural analysis, particularly in complex terrains. Such analyses are becoming more accurate and cost effective when tied to highly advanced, remote-sensing, multi-spectral data acquisition and image processing technology. Emerging technology in petroleum geochemistry enables geoscientists to infer the character, age, maturity, identity and location of source rocks from crude oil characteristics (‘Geochemical Inversion’) and to better estimate hydrocarbon-supply volumetrics, which can be invaluable in understanding petroleum systems and in reducing exploration risks and associated expenses.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "New risk analyses"
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Ng, Anthony Kwok-Lung. "Risk Assessment of Transformer Fire Protection in a Typical New Zealand High-Rise Building." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Civil Engineering, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1223.
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Prescriptively, the requirement of fire safety protection systems for distribution substations is not provided in the compliance document for fire safety to the New Zealand Building Code. Therefore, the New Zealand Fire Service (NZFS) has proposed a list of fire safety protection requirements for distribution substations in a letter, dated 10th July 2002. A review by Nyman [1], has considered the fire safety requirements proposed by the NZFS and discussed the issues with a number of fire engineers over the last three years. Nyman concerned that one of the requirements regarding the four hour fire separation between the distribution substation and the interior spaces of the building may not be necessary when considering the risk exposure to the building occupants in different situations, such as the involvement of the sprinkler systems and the use of transformers with a lower fire hazard. Fire resistance rating (FRR) typically means the time duration for which passive fire protection system, such as fire barriers, fire walls and other fire rated building elements, can maintain its integrity, insulation and stability in a standard fire endurance test. Based on the literature review and discussions with industry experts, it is found that failure of the passive fire protection system in a real fire exposure could potentially occur earlier than the time indicated by the fire resistance rating derived from the standard test depending on the characteristics of the actual fire (heat release rate, fire load density and fire location) and the characteristics of the fire compartment (its geometric, ventilation conditions, opening definition, building services and equipment). Hence, it is known that a higher level of fire safety, such as 4 hour fire rated construction and use of sprinkler system, may significantly improve the fire risk to health of safety of occupants in the building; however, they could never eliminate the risk. This report presents a fire engineering Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) on a transformer fire initiating in a distribution substation inside a high-rise residential and commercial mixeduse building. It compares the fire safety protection requirements for distribution substations from the NZFS to other relevant documents worldwide: the regulatory standards in New Zealand, Australia and United States of America, as well as the non-regulatory guidelines from other stakeholders, such as electrical engineering organisation, insurance companies and electricity providers. This report also examines the characteristics of historical data for transformer fires in distribution substations both in New Zealand and United States of America buildings. Reliability of active fire safety protection systems, such as smoke detection systems and sprinkler systems is reviewed in this research. Based on the data analysis results, a fire risk estimate is determined using an Event Tree Analysis (ETA) for a total of 14 scenarios with different fire safety designs and transformer types for a distribution substation in a high-rise residential and commercial mixed-use building. In Scenario 1 to 10 scenarios, different combinations of fire safety systems are evaluated with the same type of transformer, Flammable liquid (mineral oil) insulated transformer. In Scenario 11 to Scenario 14, two particular fire safety designs are selected as a baseline for the analysis of transformer types. Two types of transformer with a low fire hazard are used to replace the flammable liquid (mineral oil) insulated transformer in a distribution substation. These are less flammable liquid (silicone oil) insulated transformers and dry type (dry air) transformers. The entire fire risk estimate is determined using the software package @Risk4.5. The results from the event tree analysis are used in the cost-benefit analysis. The cost-benefit ratios are measured based on the reduced fire risk exposures to the building occupants, with respect to the investment costs of the alternative cases, from its respective base case. The outcomes of the assessment show that the proposed four hour fire separation between the distribution substations and the interior spaces of the building, when no sprinkler systems are provided, is not considered to be the most cost-effective alternative to the life safety of occupants, where the cost-benefit ratio of this scenario is ranked fifth. The most cost-effective alternative is found to be the scenario with 30 minute fire separation and sprinkler system installed. In addition to the findings, replacing a flammable liquid insulated transformer with a less flammable liquid insulated transformer or a dry type transformer is generally considered to be economical alternatives. From the QRA analysis, it is concluded that 3 hour fire separation is considered to be appropriate for distribution substations, containing a flammable liquid insulated transformer and associated equipment, in non-sprinklered buildings. The fire ratings of the separation construction can be reduced to 30 minute FRR if sprinkler system is installed. This conclusion is also in agreement with the requirements of the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA).
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Rybalko, Svetlana A. "A content analysis of Hurricane Katrina news coverage in the New York times." Virtual Press, 2007. http://liblink.bsu.edu/uhtbin/catkey/1365524.
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The current study explored how Hurricane Katrina and consecutive flooding were covered by a mainstream news media organization--the New York Times. The purpose of the study was to see and analyze if the natural disaster of such magnitude as Hurricane Katrina increased the New York Times awareness of potential risks faced by the coastal area of the United States? Can the New York Times play a role of a social change agent helping the public realize risks and be more prepared for them in the future?The researcher conducted frame analysis and 3279 paragraphs were coded in the following categories: disaster aftermath, human interest, political, responsiveness, recovery, risk, science, damage, conflict, blame frame, and other. A chi-square test was used to test the hypotheses.The first hypothesis stated: "In disaster news coverage there will be more non-risk oriented stories rather than risk oriented stories" was accepted. The secondhypothesis stated: "In stories that have risk related information there will be more quotes from officials rather than experts" was rejected.The study of the first research question: "What kinds of risks have been covered in risk framed stories?" demonstrated that reporters tend to cover more dramatic risks rather than mundane ones. The study of the second research question: "Were the sources in stories about Hurricane Katrina being quoted on subjects appropriate to their expertise?" showed that sources used in the stories were quoted according to their expertise. The study of the third question: "What kind of risk awareness (current risks) and risk prevention (hypothetical risks) coverage is there in the New York Times?" revealed that reporters tend to provide more information on current risks (risk awareness) rather than information on how to prevent future risks.Department of Journalism
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Yu, Mengyao. "Exploitation des données issues d'études d'association pangénomiques pour caractériser les voies biologiques associées au risque génétique du prolapsus de la valve mitrale GWAS-driven gene-set analyses, genetic and functional follow-up suggest GLIS1 as a susceptibility gene for mitral valve prolapse Up-dated genome-wide association study and functional annotation reveal new risk loci for mitral valve prolapse." Thesis, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 2019. https://wo.app.u-paris.fr/cgi-bin/WebObjects/TheseWeb.woa/wa/show?t=2203&f=17890.
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Le prolapsus de la valve mitrale (MVP) est une valvulopathie fréquente qui touche près de 1 personne sur 40 dans la population générale. Il s'agit de la première indication de réparation et / ou de remplacement de la valve. De nombreux gènes comme FLNA, DCHS1 pour les formes familiales et TNS1 et LMCD1 pour les formes sporadiques ont récemment été décrit comme associés au MVP. Cependant, les défauts génétiques touchant ces gènes n'expliquent pas tous les cas du MVP. De plus, les mécanismes biologiques expliquant la susceptibilité génétique au MVP, notamment pour les formes sporadiques les plus fréquentes restent mal compris. Dans cette thèse, mon objectif était 1) de caractériser globalement les mécanismes biologiques impliqués dans le risque génétique du MVP dans le contexte des études d'association pangénomique (GWAS), et 2) d'améliorer la résolution du génotypage par l'imputation génétique et par l'addition d'une nouvelle étude cas témoins, (UKBioBank) afin de permettre la découverte de nouveaux loci de prédisposition. Dans la première partie, j'ai appliqué des outils d'enrichissement de voies biologiques ou sets de gènes (i-GSEA4GWAS, DEPICT) aux données GWAS. J'ai pu montrer que les gènes présents autour des loci GWAS sont impliqués dans l'organisation des filaments d'actine, l'organisation du cytosquelette et le développement cardiaque. Nous avons également décrits de nombreux régulateurs de la transcription impliqués le développement, la prolifération cellulaire et la migration, comme le gène GLIS1 qui joue un rôle dans les transitions morphologiques cellulaires (EndoMT, MET). Afin de confirmer le rôle de GLIS1 dans l'association avec le MVP, j'ai réalisé une analyse génétique dans UKBiobank et, en combinaison avec les données françaises, l'association a atteint le seuil de significativité génomique. Des expériences d'immunohistochimie ont indiqué que Glis1, la protéine orthologue de la souris est exprimée au cours du développement embryonnaire principalement dans les noyaux des cellules endothéliales et interstitielles des valves mitrales. D'autre part, l'inactivation de Glis1 à l'aide d'oligonucléotides de type Morpholinos ont été l'origine d'une régurgitation atrio-ventriculaire chez le poisson zèbre. Dans la deuxième partie, j'ai généré des données de génotypage plus dense à l'aide d'une imputation basée sur Haplotype Reference Consortium (HRC) et TOPMed. J'ai d'abord comparé la précision d'imputation entre les données utilisant les différents panels et constaté qu'aucun panel n'atteignait une précision optimale pour les variants rares (MAF <0,01) dans nos échantillons. La précision d'imputation s'améliorait pour les variants fréquents (MAF> 0,05), en particulier pour les cohortes dont le génotypage étaient réalisé avec des puces identiques. J'ai pu ainsi cartographier avec plus de précision les loci déjà confirmés (ex. Chr 2 autour de TNS1). J'ai également identifié 6 nouveaux loci associés au MVP prometteurs. Les nouveaux variants associés sont tous fréquents. L'annotation fonctionnelle fine à l'aide de données publiques a indiqué leurs rôles potentiels dans la régulation transcriptionnelle de plusieurs gènes candidats (ex. PDGFD et ACTN4). En résumé, mes travaux de thèse ont apporté des résultats génétiques originaux mettant en lumière de nouveaux mécanismes biologiques en rapport avec la biologie et le développement de la valve. Ces travaux ont fait appel à de nombreuses stratégies génétiques d'association et d'enrichissement, d'imputation haute densité et d'annotations fonctionnelles. Mes travaux ont également été renforcés par des validations dans des modèles animaux en collaboration. Il sera nécessaire toutefois de confirmer par réplication, et potentiellement par des expériences biologiques, les résultats nouveaux issus des travaux d'imputation haute densité afin de déclarer ces nouveaux gènes de prédispositions au MVPMitral valve prolapse (MVP) is a common heart valve disease affecting nearly 1 in 40 individuals in the general population. It is the first indication for valve repair and/or replacement and moreover, a risk factor for mitral regurgitation, an established cause of endocarditis and sudden death. MVP is characterized by excess extracellular matrix secretion and cellular disorganization which leads to bulky valves that are unable to coapt correctly during ventricular systole. Even though several genes including FLNA, DCHS1 TNS1, and LMCD1 were reported to be associated with MVP, these explain partially its heritability. However, understanding the biological mechanisms underlying the genetic susceptibility to MVP is necessary to characterize its triggering mechanisms. In this thesis, I aimed 1) to characterize globally the biological mechanisms involved in the genetic risk for MVP in the context of genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and 2) improve the genotyping resolution using genetic imputation, which allowed the discovery of additional risk genes for MVP. In the first part of my study, I applied pathway enrichment tools (i-GSEA4GWAS, DEPICT) to the GWAS data. I was able to show that genes at risk loci are involved in biological functions relevant to actin filament organization, cytoskeleton biology, and cardiac development. The enrichment for positive regulation of transcription, cell proliferation, and migration motivated the follow-up of GLIS1, a transcription factor that regulates Hedgehog signalling. I followed up the association with MVP in a dataset of cases and controls from the UK Biobank and, in combination with previously available data, I found a genome-wide significant association with MVP (OR=1.22, P=4.36 ×10-10). Through collaborative efforts, immunohistochemistry experiments in mouse indicated that Glis1 is expressed during embryonic development predominantly in nuclei of endothelial and interstitial cells of mitral valves, while Glis1 knockdown using morpholinos caused atrioventricular regurgitation in zebrafish. In the second part of my work, I generated larger genotyping datasets using a imputation based on Haplotyp Refernece Consortium and TOPMed, two large and highly dense imputation panels that were recently made available. I first compared the imputation accuracy between data using HRC and TopMED and found that both panels have low imputation accuracy for rare allele (MAF<0.01). However, the imputation accuracy increased with the input sample size for common variants (MAF>0.05), especially when genotyping platforms were harmonised. I was able to fine map established loci (e.g Chr 2) and also able to identify six novel and promising associated loci. All new loci are driven by common variants that I confirmed as high profile regulatory variants through an extensive computationally-based functional annotations at promising loci that pointed at several candidate genes for valve biology and development (e.g PDGFD and ACTN4). In summary, my PhD work applied up-to-data high throughput genetic association methods and functional enrichment and annotation to GWAS data. My results provide novel insights into the genetics, molecular and cellular basis of valve disease. Further genetic confirmation through replication, but also through biological experiments are expected to consolidate these statistically and computationally supported results
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Marais, Karen 1973. "A new approach to risk analysis with a focus on organizational risk factors." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/32467.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2005.Includes bibliographical references (p. 235-255).
Preventing accidents in complex socio-technical systems requires an approach to risk management that continuously monitors risk and identifies potential areas of concern before they lead to hazards, and constrains hazards before they lead to accidents. This research introduces the concept of continuous participative risk management, in which risks are continuously monitored throughout the lifetime of a system, and members from all levels of the organization are involved both in risk analysis and in risk mitigation. One aspect of effective risk management is accurate risk analysis that takes account of technical, human, and organizational factors. This research develops a new approach to risk analysis that improves on event-based models to include risks that do not depend only on component or subsystem failures, and incorporates both human and organizational factors. The approach enables the early identification of risk mitigation strategies, aids in the allocation of resources to best manage risk, and provides for the continuous monitoring of risk throughout the system lifecycle. Organizational factors have been identified as a significant aspect of accidents in complex socio-technical systems. Properly managing and assessing risk requires an understanding of the impact of organizational factors on risk. Three popular theories of organizational risk, normal accidents theory (NAT), high reliability organizations (HRO), and normalization of deviance, are reviewed. While these approaches do provide some useful insights, they all have significant limitations, particularly as a basis for assessing and managing risk. This research develops the understanding of organizational risk factors by focussing on the dynamics of organizational risk.
(cont.) A framework is developed to analyze the strategic trade-offs between short and long-term goals and understand the reasons why organizations tend to migrate to states of increasing risk. The apparent conflict between performance and safety is shown to result from the different time horizons applying to performance and safety. Performance is measured in the short term, while safety is indirectly observed over the long term. Expanding the time horizon attenuates the apparent tension between performance and safety. By increasing awareness of the often implicit trade-offs between safety and performance, organizations can avoid decisions that unwittingly increase risk. In addition to this general dynamic, several specific common patterns of problematic organizational behaviour in accidents in diverse industries are identified. While accidents usually differ in the technical aspects, the organizational behaviour accompanying the accident exhibits commonalities across industries. These patterns of behaviour, or archetypes, can be used to better understand how risk arises and how problematic organizational behaviours might be addressed in diverse settings such as the space industry and chemical manufacturing. NASA specific archetypes are developed based on historical accounts of NASA and investigations into the Challenger and Columbia accidents. The NASA archetypes illustrate several mechanisms by which the manned space program migrated towards high risk.
by Karen Marais.
Ph.D.
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Abadi, Mostafa Shams Esfand. "Analysis of new techniques for risk aggregation and dependence modelling." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/9239.
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Mestrado em Ciências ActuariaisIn risk aggregation we are interested in the distribution of the sum of dependent risks. The objective of risk aggregation and dependence modeling is to model adequately dependent insurance portfolios in order to evaluate the overall risk exposure. This master thesis investigates some practical aspects of modeling risk aggregation and dependency. We give an introduction to copula-based hierarchical aggregation model through reordering algorithm. This approach can be easily applicable in high dimensions and consists of a tree structure, bivariate copulas, and marginal distributions. This method is empirically illustrated using data set of Danish Fire Insurance Data. These data were collected at Copenhagen Reinsurance over the period 1980 to 1990 and every total claim has been divided into three risks consisting of a building loss, a loss of contents and a loss of profits caused by the same fire.
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Hewitt, Dolan. "Risk analysis associated with flank failure from Putauaki, Bay of Plenty, New Zealand." The University of Waikato, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10289/2337.
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Volcanoes are dynamic evolving structures, with life cycles that are punctuated by episodes of flank instability. Putauaki (Mount Edgecumbe) is a stratovolcano located onshore in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. The aim of this study was to assess the stability of Putauaki and analyse the risk associated with volcanic collapse. To achieve this objective, a multidisciplinary approach was used, incorporating geomorphological and geological mapping, rock mass classification, laboratory testing to identify geotechnical properties of materials representative of the volcano, stability modelling, and analysis of landslide run-out zones. Putauaki comprises two predominant features including the larger and younger Main Cone (the summit lying 820 m a.s.l., slope angles up to 36 ), and smaller and older Main Dome (the summit lying 420 m a.s.l., slope angle of 24 ). Both features show little evidence of erosion or surface water. Rock mass description defined six lithotechnical units including indurated andesite, indurated dacite, scoriaceous andesite, altered andesite (all categorised as hard rocks), and block and ash flow and Matahina Ignimbrite (both categorised as soft rocks). The uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of indurated andesite and indurated dacite was 60 4 MPa and 44.7 0.9 MPa respectively, correlating with moderately strong rock. Discontinuities of the indurated units were widely spaced, showed medium persistence and wide aperture, and were slightly weathered. Infill comprised predominantly loosely packed, very strong, coarse gravel. UCS of scoriaceous andesite and altered andesite was 25 5 MPa and 15 1 MPa respectively, allowing categorisation as very weak rock. Discontinuities of scoriaceous andesite were widely spaced, showed high persistence and wide aperture, and were moderately weathered. Discontinuities of the altered andesite were moderately spaced, showed low persistence and wide aperture, and were highly weathered. Infill of scoriaceous and altered andesite was loosely packed, moist, weak to very weak medium gravel. The block and ash flow was a poorly sorted, loosely packed, sandy, gravely and cobble rich matrix supported deposit. The Matahina Ignimbrite was a very weak, discontinuity-poor deposit. Shear box testing indicated cohesion and friction angle of 0 MPa and 42.1 (block and ash flow) and 1.4 x 10-3 MPa and 41.7 (Matahina Ignimbrite) respectively. These values are similar to published values. Correlation of each lithotechnical unit to its respective rock mass description site allowed approximate boundaries of each unit to be mapped. Each unit's mass strength was combined with measured bulk densities and incorporated into two dimensional slope profiles using the stability modelling package GalenaTM. Ten slope profiles of Putauaki were constructed. Failure surfaces for each slope profile were defined using the Bishop simplified multiple analysis method. Four slope profiles showed the potential for small scale failure (less than 0.1 km2 of material). The remaining six slope profiles showed the potential for large scale failure (greater than 0.1 km2 of material). Stability of these six slope profiles was investigated further in relation to earthquake force, watertable elevation, and a disturbance factor of the rock mass (D). Conditions of failure graphs for profile 6a showed that at low D (less than 0.4), earthquake forces and watertable elevation must be unrealistically high for the region (greater than 0.33 g; greater than 15% watertable elevation) in order produce a factor of safety less than 1. The remaining five slope profiles showed potential to be unstable under realistic earthquake forces and watertable elevations. Two of these profiles were unable to achieve stability at D greater than 0.8 (profile 4) and D greater than 0.9 (profile 5). A D value of 0.6 (intermediate between 0.4 and 0.8) is argued to most realistically represent Putauaki. The fact that Putauaki has not undergone large scale failure to date supports the conclusion that the constructed models overestimate the influence of those factors which promote slope instability. Maximum and minimum landslide run-out zones were constructed for the slope profiles exhibiting the potential for large scale failure. Definition of the position and extent of maximum and minimum run-out zones assumed H/L (fall height to run-out length) ratios of 0.09 and 0.18 respectively, as well as the 'credible flow path' concept. Identified impacts of landslides sourced from Putauaki include inundation of Kawerau Township, Tarawera River, forestry operations, road networks, and power supplies. Based on these impacts, the risk posed by landslides from each slope profile was categorised as ranging from relatively low to relatively high. Landslides sourced from the south-west flanks pose a relatively low risk due to their prerequisite of unrealistically high watertable elevations and earthquake forces. Landslides sourced from the north-west flanks pose a relatively high risk as minimum run-out will inundate north-east parts of Kawerau Township. Landslides sourced from the eastern flanks pose a moderate risk due to their run-out zones avoiding Kawerau Township.
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Maina, Sandra. "Adaptation Preferences and Responses to Sea Level Rise and Land Loss Risk in Southern Louisiana: a Survey-based Analysis." FIU Digital Commons, 2014. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1424.
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Currently, southern Louisiana faces extreme land loss that could reach an alarming rate of about one football sized swath of land every hour. The combined effect of land subsidence and predicted sea level rise threaten the culture and livelihood of the residents living in this region. As the most vulnerable coastal population in Louisiana, the communities of south Terrebonne Parish are called to adapt by accommodating, protecting, or retreating from the impacts of climate change. For effective preparation planning, the state of Louisiana needs to 1) understand the adaptation preferences and responses of these residents and 2) involve these vulnerable communities in adaptation related decision making. The study uses a survey-based methodology to analyze current adaptation preferences. Findings suggest that protection is the preferred adaptation response. The present study additionally uses participatory techniques to develop a land loss awareness mobile application to illustrate the importance and benefits of community collaboration.
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Cao, Kay Quy Thanh Thi. "An Economic Analysis of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point-Based Risk Management Programme in the New Zealand Meat Industry." The University of Waikato, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10289/2526.
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The replacement of the Meat Act 1981 by the Animal Products Act 1999 opened a new era for food safety management in New Zealand. Administering food legislation is now the sole responsibility of the New Zealand Food Safety Authority instead of being shared between the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and the Ministry of Health as previously. At the core of the legislative change is the requirement for Risk Management Programmes (RMP). Every single animal primary processing business is required to have an RMP for each type of product. An RMP is required to embrace the principles of Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP). While there have been some studies considering the implementation of HACCP in food businesses worldwide, there has not been any study focusing on HACCP adoption in New Zealand. The mandating of RMP has also made the implementation process more complex. On the other hand, it also brings new experience in terms of food safety management. This thesis examines the implementation process of HACCP/RMP in New Zealand. It also explores the interaction between food safety management and international competitiveness through an economic analysis of the impacts of the program on a New Zealand food processing industry. The meat industry was chosen as a case study as it is one of the first industries that had to comply with the first deadline of the implementation (July 2003). Also, being a significant export-oriented industry of New Zealand, the meat industry provides an ideal case for the purpose of this study. The thesis consists of four parts. Part I presents an introduction to the study including a review of international and national food safety issues, the relationship between food safety and trade and international competitiveness, and the HACCP economic literature. This background helps to shape the research objectives and methodology as described in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 discusses the design of the survey to collect plant experience regarding the implementation of HACCP/RMP in New Zealand. Part II analyses the experiences within the New Zealand meat industry regarding the implementation of HACCP/RMP. It discusses plant motivations to adopt the program and the implementation issues they are facing. Plant observations on the costs and benefits of the implementation are reported. Further, data gathered from the survey are used in a non-parametric analysis of the influences of the plant characteristics on the HACCP/RMP implementation process. The analysis provides implications for HACCP/RMP policy design. Part III presents the modelling techniques to quantify the costs and benefits of HACCP/RMP implementation. In Chapter 8, a quality-adjusted cost function is used to estimate the change in variable cost of production due to HACCP/RMP. It shows that this type of cost can make up a significant proportion of the total implementation cost. In Chapter 9, an export model is employed to analyse the impact of HACCP/RMP on meat industry export performance. The results show that the programme can bring a positive impact on exports. However, the magnitude of the impact depends on the status of existing food safety management before HACCP/RMP implementation. In Chapter 10, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is used to simulate the scenarios where market accesses to significant export destinations are lost when HACCP/RMP is not adopted. The estimated costs of these losses signal the potential benefits of HACCP/RMP. The research results show that HACCP/RMP can deliver a net benefit to the New Zealand meat industry. The thesis concludes with implications for policy design and future research directions. It signifies that the research findings, in addition to reporting an investigation into HACCP/RMP implementation process in New Zealand, provide an important foundation for future research on food safety and international competitiveness.
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Kalo, Fady. "Il risk management tecnico nel trading di portafoglio." Bachelor's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2011. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/2732/.
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Il problema che si cerca di risolvere attraverso la gestione quantitativa del portafoglio è la riduzione del rischio tramite strategie che non dipendano dalla diversificazione dei titoli che compongono il portafoglio. Nel momento in cui si decide di applicare un trading system su un determinato gruppo di asset, il capitale non viene allocato automaticamente su tutti i titoli e si deve affrontare invece un continuo investimento tramite l’apertura dinamica di posizioni sul mercato.Questo significa che la diversificazione non è più una misura adeguata del rischio sostenuto poiché i rendimenti attesi dell’investimento non dipendono più dalle proprietà stesse degli strumenti scelti, ma dalla profittabilità dei segnali generati dalla logica del trading system su questi. Bisogna testare in questo caso le performance del sistema a livello statistico e prevedere anche, per esempio, che l’algoritmo possa generare dei segnali errati che portano a delle posizioni in perdita.
Il portafoglio a livello quantitativo deve essere gestito tramite dei trading system che abbiano la possibilità di valutare aspetti globali, come il profitto totale di tutte le posizioni attualmente aperte, o l’intero rischio sostenuto dal capitale gestito. Le decisioni non vengono prese dall’analisi delle prestazioni individuali che la strategia ottiene operando sui singoli titoli. Per affrontare una possibile soluzione a questa problematica si sono quindi selezionati due trading system le cui prestazioni fossero robuste su un intero portafoglio e non solo su determinati titoli. In un successivo momento vengono analizzate le prestazioni del portafoglio aggiungendo ai test due ulteriori strategie di uscita: lo stoploss di portafoglio e il target di portafoglio. Nonostante esse ricalchino idee ampiamente utilizzate per la gestione delle singole posizioni su un titolo, per i test si è deciso di modificarle implementando la gestione globale del capitale all’interno del trading system di portafoglio.
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Singh, Bina Aruna. "GIS based assessment of seismic risk for the Christchurch CBD and Mount Pleasant, New Zealand." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geography, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1302.
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This research employs a deterministic seismic risk assessment methodology to assess the potential damage and loss at meshblock level in the Christchurch CBD and Mount Pleasant primarily due to building damage caused by earthquake ground shaking. Expected losses in terms of dollar value and casualties are calculated for two earthquake scenarios. Findings are based on: (1) data describing the earthquake ground shaking and microzonation effects; (2) an inventory of buildings by value, floor area, replacement value, occupancy and age; (3) damage ratios defining the performance of buildings as a function of earthquake intensity; (4) daytime and night-time population distribution data and (5) casualty functions defining casualty risk as a function of building damage. A GIS serves as a platform for collecting, storing and analyzing the original and the derived data. It also allows for easy display of input and output data, providing a critical functionality for communication of outcomes. The results of this study suggest that economic losses due to building damage in the Christchurch CBD and Mount Pleasant will possibly be in the order of $5.6 and $35.3 million in a magnitude 8.0 Alpine fault earthquake and a magnitude 7.0 Ashley fault earthquake respectively. Damage to non-residential buildings constitutes the vast majority of the economic loss. Casualty numbers are expected to be between 0 and 10.
Books on the topic "New risk analyses"
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Sobell, Vladimir. The new Russia: A political risk analysis. London, U.K: Economist Intelligence Unit, 1994.
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Tessmer, Antoinette Canart. New dimensions of inductive learning for credit risk analysis. Champaign: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1992.
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International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition (2001 New York, N.Y.). Safety engineering and risk analysis, 2001: Presented at the 2001 ASME International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition, November 11-16, 2001, New York, New York. New York, N.Y: American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2001.
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Francesc, Castells, and Schuhmacher Marta, eds. Integrated life-cycle and risk assessment for industrial processes. Boca Raton: Lewis Publishers, 2004.
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Andersson, Leif. The theory of possibility and fuzzy sets: New ideas for risk analysis and decision making. Stockholm: Swedish Council for Building Research, 1988.
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A, Elia F., Pyatt David W, American Society of Mechanical Engineers. Winter Meeting, and American Society of Mechanical Engineers. Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division., eds. Safety engineering and risk analysis: Presented at the 1993 ASME Winter Annual Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, November 28-December 3, 1993. New York: American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1993.
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European Agency for Safety and Health at Work, ed. Drivers and barriers for psychosocial risk management: An analysis of the findings of the European survey of enterprises on new and emerging risks (ESENER) : report. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2012.
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NEA Workshop on Uncertainty Analysis for Performance Assessments of Radioactive Waste Disposal Systems (1987 Seattle, Wash.). Proceedings of an NEA Workshop on Uncertainty Analysis for Performance Assessments of Radioactive Waste Disposal Systems. Paris: OECD, 1987.
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International, Workshop on Disaster Risk Mitigation: Potential of Micro-Finance for Tsunami Recovery (2005 New Delhi India). Micro-finance and disaster risk reduction: Proceedings of International Workshop on Disaster Risk Mitigation: Potential of Micro-Finance for Tsunami Recovery New Delhi, October 14-15, 2005. New Delhi: National Institute of Disaster Management in association with Knowledge World, 2006.
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Grichnik, Dietmar. International Entrepreneurship: Entscheidungs- und Risikoverhalten von Unternehmensgründern und Venture-Finanziers in kulturellen Kontexten : Theoriebildung und empirische Analysen. Berlin: Duncker & Humblot, 2006.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "New risk analyses"
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Alberto, Ana Rita, Cristina Matos, Gabriel Carmona-Aparicio, and Muriel Iten. "Nanomaterials, a New Challenge in the Workplace." In Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology, 379–402. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-88071-2_15.
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AbstractNanomaterials are a nanotechnological product of increasing importance given the possibilities they offer to improve quality of life and support sustainable development. Safe management of nanomaterials is needed to ensure that this emerging technology has the highest levels of acceptance among different interest groups, including workers. This chapter reviews the current state that presents the different stages of risk management applied to nanomaterials, including standardisation, regulation, risk assessment and risk control. Particularly, the chapter contextualizes the development of nanotechnologies at European level and analyses the scientific evidence available on the risks derived from nanomaterials use. Furthermore, it highlights the required conditions to encourage the responsible development of nanomaterials, as well as reflects on the lack of consensus in terms of approaches and frameworks that could facilitate standardisation adoption, regulatory enforcement and industry intervention concerning nanomaterials.
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Yang, Liu, and Antoine Rauzy. "FDS-ML: A New Modeling Formalism for Probabilistic Risk and Safety Analyses." In Model-Based Safety and Assessment, 78–92. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32872-6_6.
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Roux, Christophe. "Conclusion: A Discipline Viewed from the Fringes—Opportunities Taken and the Risk of Deinstitutionalisation." In Opportunities and Challenges for New and Peripheral Political Science Communities, 257–81. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-79054-7_9.
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AbstractThis chapter concludes the volume. It first sums up the main interests at stake regarding the institutionalisation of political science as an academic discipline. It then analyses the key findings and unresolved questions concerning the growth of the discipline at the turn of the current century in Central and Eastern Europe. It also examines possible harbingers of political science’s deinstitutionalisation within the region.
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Raymond, S. S., D. Golding, S. K. Hammond, J. Himmelstein, R. E. Kasperson, M. H. Melville, F. Noonan, S. Ratick, and F. R. Tuler. "New Technologies, New Hazards? A Systematic Approach." In Risk Analysis, 509–20. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-0730-1_49.
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Lübke, Christiane, Jean P. Décieux, Marcel Erlinghagen, and Gert G. Wagner. "Comparing the Risk Attitudes of Internationally Mobile and Non-Mobile Germans." In IMISCOE Research Series, 85–100. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67498-4_5.
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AbstractMoving–particularly to a new country–is fraught with risks as migrants leave familiar legal frameworks and cultural institutions behind them. To date, little is known about the psychological determinants of international migration. This chapter helps to fill this gap by analysing data from the first wave of the German Emigration and Remigration Panel Study (GERPS) in combination with data on non-mobile individuals from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP). The analyses presented examine whether the risk attitudes of internationally mobile Germans (‘movers’) differ from those of their non-mobile counterparts (‘stayers’). The results show that–with control for key socio-demographic and socio-economic determinants of risk affinity–both emigrants and remigrants report a significantly higher willingness to take risks than stayers. Risk affinity differs within the group of internationally mobile individuals: Emigrants moving to geographically and culturally distant non-European countries report higher risk affinity than those moving to Germany’s neighbouring countries. Emigrants with multiple previous emigration periods are also more willing to take risks. These findings suggest that voluntary emigration from wealthy countries like Germany is only partly a matter of living conditions. Rather, (repeated) emigration seems to be a matter of personality and an expression of a more adventurous lifestyle.
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Bhattacharya, Keron. "Risk Analysis." In The New Frontiers for Business Analysis, 95–105. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-08612-2_7.
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Munera, Hector A., and George Yadigaroglu. "A New Limit-Line Approach to Compare Large Scale Societal Accidents." In Risk Analysis, 167–77. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-0730-1_18.
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Konecny, Milan, Temenoujka Bandrova, Petr Kubicek, Silvia Marinova, Radim Stampach, Zdenek Stachon, and Tomas Reznik. "Digital Earth for Disaster Mitigation." In Manual of Digital Earth, 495–526. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-32-9915-3_15.
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Abstract This chapter describes the state-of-the-art of the potential of Digital Earth for progressively better solutions for disaster mitigation. The chapter illustrates the use of strong Digital Earth tools for data sharing and important potential for users, such as 2D or multi-D visualizations. Milestones of developments in early warning, disaster risk management and disaster risk reduction concepts are highlighted as a continuous movement between sustainable development and original concepts of disaster risk reduction. Improved solutions have been based on new research directions formulated in Sustainable Development Goals tasks and by expanding the possibilities of new effective solutions via newly organized data ecosystems generated by the United Nations Global Geospatial Information Management, the Group on Earth Observations and the Group on Earth Observations System of Systems, Copernicus and, more recently, the Digital Belt and Road initiative. The new trends in spatial big data are emphasized; the most important for disaster risk reduction are the basic theses of the U.N. Conference in Sendai. This chapter describes three aspects: innovative Digital Earth development, national and local disaster risk assessment and the benefits arising from the use of maps and dynamic data, and analyses of the contributions of cartography to disaster risk reduction.
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Hoffman, Lance J. "Computer Security Risk Analysis." In New Risks: Issues and Management, 371–77. Boston, MA: Springer US, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-0759-2_42.
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da Silva, Margarida Ferreira, Helena Albuquerque, Filomena Martins, and Gildas Buron. "Salt pans: an indissociable natural and cultural heritage - a comparative study between Aveiro, Portugal and Guérande, France." In Tourism planning and development in Western Europe, 65–79. Wallingford: CABI, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781800620797.0005.
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Abstract This chapter conducts an explorative comparative study between Aveiro, Portugal and Guérande, France, to explore the unique cultural and natural landscape that salt pans offer to visitors. Due to this landscape, visitors to salt pans combine tourism activities with artisanal salt production. The chapter critically analyses the duality between traditional activity disappearance risk and new market trends and proposes to policymakers and other stakeholders sustainable integrated strategic guidelines on the potential of salt pans to create multifunctional synergies.
Conference papers on the topic "New risk analyses"
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Muhlbauer, W. Kent, Derek Johnson, Elaine Hendren, and Steve Gosse. "A New Generation of Pipeline Risk Algorithms." In 2006 International Pipeline Conference. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2006-10178.
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While the previous generation of scoring-type algorithms have served us (the industry) well, the associated technical compromises can be troublesome in today’s environment of increasing regulatory and public oversight. Risk analyses often become the centerpiece of any legal, regulatory, or public proceedings. This prompts the need for analysis techniques that can produce risk estimates anchored in absolute terms, such as “consequences per mile year”. Accordingly, a new generation of algorithms has been developed to meet today’s needs without costly re-vamping of previously collected data or increasing the costs of risk analysis. A simple re-grouping of variables into categories of “exposure”, “mitigation”, and ‘resistance’, along with a few changes in the mathematics of combining variables, transitions older scoring models into the new approach. The advantages of the new algorithms are significant since they: • are more intuitive and predictive, • better model reality, • lead to better risk management decisions by distinguishing between unmitigated exposure to a threat, mitigation effectiveness, and system resistance, • eliminate the need for unrealistic and troublesome reweighting or balancing of variables for changes such as new technologies, • offer flexibility to present results in either absolute (probabilistic) terms or relative terms, depending on the user’s needs. The challenge is to accomplish these without losing the advantages of earlier approaches. One of the intent of the new algorithms is to avoid overly-analytic techniques that often accompany more absolute quantifications of risk. This paper will showcase this new generation of algorithms to better suit the changing needs of risk analysis within the pipeline industry.
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Paik, Jeom Kee, Jerzy Czujko, Jeong Hwan Kim, Sung In Park, Shafiqul Islam, and Dong Hun Lee. "A New Procedure for the Nonlinear Structural Response Analysis of Offshore Installations in Fires." In SNAME Maritime Convention. SNAME, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/smc-2013-t40.
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The quantitative assessment and management of the risks associated with fire require integrated computations of fire loads and their consequences. The objective of this paper is to present a new procedure for the nonlinear structural response analysis of offshore installations during fires. The procedure comprises calculation of fire loads using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation, thermal response analysis and nonlinear structural response analysis in fire which are key elements in the framework of the fire risk assessment and management. KFX code is used to perform the fire CFD simulation; whereas the analyses of both thermal and nonlinear structural responses are performed using the LS-DYNA code. Models for such analysis can be developed with shell elements to represent the structures with required accuracy. A computer program known as KFX2DYNA is applied to automatically import the results of the KFX simulations which are directly exported to LSDYNA for the analyses of both heat transfer and nonlinear structural responses, making fire risk analysis fast, accurate and reliable. An experimental scenario with a simply supported I-girder under fire is used to validate the procedure. The applicability of the procedure is demonstrated using the example of a fire in the hypothetical topside structure of a VLCC-class FPSO.
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Du, Carolyn, Pamela K. Shiao, and Yen-Chun Lin. "Abstract B08: Meta-analyses of methionine-related polymorphisms and colorectal cancer risk for population health." In Abstracts: Thirteenth Annual AACR International Conference on Frontiers in Cancer Prevention Research; September 27 - October 1, 2014; New Orleans, LA. American Association for Cancer Research, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1158/1940-6215.prev-14-b08.
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Darji, V. P., and R. V. Rao. "Simulated Approach of Fire Risk Analysis With Fuzzy Decision Making Methods: A New Methodology." In ASME 2010 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2010-37815.
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This work proposes a way to make existing fire risk analysis methods simpler to use without affecting the accurateness of their results. In general, a fire risk analysis starts with an established burning in a room of origin, i.e., the building location where an ignition occurs. The method then analyses things like the most likely direction that established burning will spread, rate of spread, rate of smoke generation, time people will have to evacuate before untenable conditions are present in the environment, the time the building structure will sustain until collapse, etc. The aim of this paper is to propose the use of the ELECTRE III multicriteria decision aid method, in order to perform the room of origin selection. The advantage of ELECTRE III is that it uses pairwise comparisons between alternative rooms of origin, so as one can select the best one according to predefined preference criteria. Each criterion is weighted to represent its relative importance according to the preference structure of the person performing the selection.
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Johng, Dorhyun, Michael C. Haffner, Steven M. Mooney, David M. Esopi, Charles M. Ewing, Shuangling Chen, and William B. Isaacs. "Abstract 2027: Global analyses of HOXB13-regulated transcription reveal a potential link between HOXB13 G84E and prostate cancer risk." In Proceedings: AACR 107th Annual Meeting 2016; April 16-20, 2016; New Orleans, LA. American Association for Cancer Research, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1158/1538-7445.am2016-2027.
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Krus, Daniel, and Katie Grantham. "A Step Toward Risk Mitigation During Conceptual Product Design: Component Selection for Risk Reduction." In ASME 2010 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2010-28333.
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The objective of this paper is to introduce a method that will mitigate product risks during the conceptual design phase by identifying design variables that affect product failures. By using this comprehensive, step-by-step process that combines existing techniques in a new way, designers can begin with a simple Functional Model and emerge from the conceptual design phase with specific components selected with many risks already mitigated. The Risk in Early Design (RED) method plays a significant role in identifying failure modes by functions, and these modes are then analyzed through modeling equations or lifespan analyses, in such a manner that emphasizes variables under the designers’ control. With the valuable insight this method provides, informed decisions can be made early in the process, thereby eliminating costly changes later on.
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Ram, Bonnie. "An Integrated Risk Framework for Large Scale Deployments of Renewable Energy." In ASME 2009 28th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2009-80228.
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Assessing the potential environmental and human effects of deploying renewable energy along our coasts, on the Outer Continental Shelf, and in the Great Lakes requires a new risk paradigm. Evaluating potential risks requires a consistent program of research over time that collects relevant data by each sectoral area, such as bat and bird collisions, entanglement with mammals and fish, safety within shipping lanes, etc. Data collection alone, however, will not lead to better decisionmaking. Arriving at a broad and integrated risk profile of environmental and human effects is beyond a linear problem or a scientific decision. It becomes a political decision that must take into account the scientific evidence, comparison to other energy supply options, and stakeholder and public concerns. Risk assessment is not a new approach as it is applied throughout the federal government. The renewable energy area needs to develop and apply a risk assessment framework to support better decisions for deployment. The current approach evaluates potential impacts, sector by sector, or with a National Energy Policy Act (NEPA) document prepared by a federal agency or private developer. This site or project specific analyses are central to a better understanding of risk, but again it does not help the decisionmaker. The decisionmaker needs to better understand the broad spectrum of risk across all potential sites. Though the analyses may be incomplete, expert judgments can determine the level of significance and the research gaps. While renewable energy deployments are small today, marine renewable energy deployments are planned in the ocean over the next decade within North America and large deployment goals are expected in Europe. Now is the time to construct an integrated risk framework that evaluates the sectoral impacts, compares across these impacts, and then compares them to other energy supply options. A central lesson of a risk framework is that risks (sector effects) must be compared across potential effects to develop a transparent evaluation of temporal and spatial impacts of a site or a region. An evaluation of one sector separate from the others leads to skewed perceptions of significant risks. This integrated risk framework would also lead to effective siting strategies that would be based on mitigating the most important risks and employing cost-effective adaptive management practices wherever possible. While the nation moves forward in deploying renewable energy, lessons learned and new data will trigger new problems and new solutions to the potential impacts on the coastal landscape and within the marine environment. This integrated risk framework is presented graphically below to identify the specific analytical steps as well as how these activities will lead to better decisionmaking and smarter siting strategies (see Figure 1).
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Wang, Xuming, Cenxi Yuan, and Chen Ye. "Performances Analyses of Crud of EPR Fuel Assembly." In 2017 25th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone25-66204.
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Taishan European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR) is a third generation advanced pressurized water reactor (PWR), which adopts the third generation advanced fuel assembly (AFA-3G-LE) from AREVA for the first time. As suggested by American Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), an EPRI level III crud risk assessment is necessary for new type of plants. Because crud induced power offset (CIPS) and crud induced local corrosion (CILC) can lead to axial offset anomaly (AOA) and fuel cladding failure, respectively. A EPRI level III CIPS/CILC risk assessment for Taishan EPR is performed with a new framework of simulation by using sub-channel code FLICA, crud code BOA, and Monte Carlo transport code Tripoli-4. Such framework enables a self-consistent calculation, including a detailed description on neutronics contributed by boron. The validation of present work is confirmed because of the good agreement with the experienced data of EPRI. The results show that AFA-3G-LE has a good performance on crud risk assessment. Even in the worst case, the boron-10 deposition (2.6 g) and the maximum thickness of crud (59 μm) are lower than the low risk threshold, 31.33 g and 75 μm, respectively. Hence, It is expected that Taishan EPR has a very low risk on CIPS and CILC.
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Rettedal, Wenche K., Henning Mong, and Gunnar Hausberg. "Risk Analysis: Heavy Lifts — Norne FPSO Gas Export Project." In ASME 2003 22nd International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2003-37069.
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In 2000 The Norne FPSO was upgraded with an export riser and necessary process equipment for gas export. Due to high risks during installation of the new units onto the FPSO, it was decided to carry out a risk analysis of the most critical lifts. This paper concentrates on the risk analysis carried out for the lifting of one particular module, the TEG unit. The static clearance between the FPSO and the lifting vessel Regalia during the lift was very small and studies of vessel motions showed that a vessel collision could occur based on a normal vessel motion and DP inaccuracies. In particular the lift was very sensitive to the heading control of the FPSO and 1 degree heading change reduced the clearance between the vessels by 2 m. The purpose of this paper is to show that risk analyses have shown to be a very useful tool to identify where efforts in terms of economic resources and manpower should be directed to control and reduce risk prior to critical marine operation.
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Mansour Youssef, Samy Adly, Serdar Turgut Ince, Yang Seop Kim, Muhammad Faisal, Jung Kwan Seo, and Jeom Kee Paik. "Toward a New Procedure for the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Double Hull Oil Tankers in Collisions." In SNAME 5th World Maritime Technology Conference. SNAME, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/wmtc-2015-192.
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In recent decades, the number of ships increased substantially and it is still expected to continue to increase. Collision risk is one of the most serious accidents that can lead to severe consequences, such as casualty, property damage and environmental pollution. According to the statistics, it is found that the developments in collision avoidance systems and the related regulations have not contributed much to prevent the collision accidents. The aim of the present study is to develop a new methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of double–hull oil tankers. Within the framework of the methodology, a probabilistic approach is introduced to define a relevant set of ship–ship collision scenarios by treating the accidental influencing parameters as random variables. The collision frequency is calculated for each of the selected collision scenarios by considering a double–hull oil tanker collided with different types of striking ships. To predict the resulting collision damage to the struck ship, numerical simulations are conducted for each scenario by performing nonlinear finite element analyses. Based on the calculated risks, exceedance curves are established that can be used to define the collision design loads in association with various design criteria. In addition, to give a more complete picture of the risk assessment, a new method is proposed for assessing the risk of ship’s hull collapse following a collision. The results are formulated in terms of the residual strength index (RSI) and the loading ratio to produce the relationship between residual strength (R) and loading ratio of horizontal bending moment to vertical bending moment (L) and design formulations for predicting the RSI of damaged ship hulls are derived in an empirical manner. As an applied example, a hypothetical Suezmax–class double hull tanker is considered as a struck ship. Collision risks to asset and the environment are assessed. It is considered that the developed methodology can be useful in the early design stage of oil tankers.
Reports on the topic "New risk analyses"
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Black, Richard, Joshua Busby, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Cedric de Coning, Hafsa Maalim, Claire McAllister, Melvis Ndiloseh, et al. Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, May 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.55163/lcls7037.
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The environmental crisis is increasing risks to security and peace worldwide, notably in countries that are already fragile. Indicators of insecurity such as the number of conflicts, the number of hungry people and military expenditure are rising; so are indicators of environmental decline, in climate change, biodiversity, pollution and other areas. In combination, the security and environmental crises are creating compound, cascading, emergent, systemic and existential risks. Without profound changes of approach by institutions of authority, risks will inevitably proliferate quickly. Environment of Peace surveys the evolving risk landscape and documents a number of developments that indicate a pathway to solutions––in international law and policy, in peacekeeping operations and among non-governmental organizations. It finds that two principal avenues need to be developed: (a) combining peace-building and environmental restoration, and (b) effectively addressing the underlying environmental issues. It also analyses the potential of existing and emerging pro-environment measures for exacerbating risks to peace and security. The findings demonstrate that only just and peaceful transitions to more sustainable practices can be effective––and show that these transitions also need to be rapid.
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Sobolik, Steven R., Teklu Hadgu, and Robert P. Rechard. Gas Migration Project: Risk Assessment Tool and Computational Analyses to Investigate Wellbore/Mine Interactions, Secretary's Potash Area, Southeastern New Mexico. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), May 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1431292.
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Eggers, Shannon. Towards a New Supply Chain Cybersecurity Risk Analysis Technique. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), August 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1877401.
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Hassan, Tarek A., Jesse Schreger, Markus Schwedeler, and Ahmed Tahoun. Country Risk. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, March 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp157.
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We construct new measures of country risk and sentiment as perceived by global investors and executives using textual analysis of the quarterly earnings calls of publicly listed firms around the world. Our quarterly measures cover 45 countries from 2002-2020. We use our measures to provide a novel characterization of country risk and to provide a harmonized definition of crises. We demonstrate that elevated perceptions of a country's riskiness are associated with significant falls in local asset prices and capital outflows, even after global financial conditions are controlled for. Increases in country risk are associated with reductions in firm-level investment and employment. We also show direct evidence of a novel type of contagion, where foreign risk is transmitted across borders through firm-level exposures. Exposed firms suffer falling market valuations and significantly retrench their hiring and investment in response to crises abroad. Finally, we provide direct evidence that heterogeneous currency loadings on global risk help explain the cross-country pattern of interest rates and currency risk premia.
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CHERKASOVA, Ye V., I. A. KORYAGINA, S. I. VOLODKEVICH, P. S. BURLANKOV, and Yu I. ZUBTSOVA. FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT OF SME IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY: ANALYSIS OF THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES. Science and Innovation Center Publishing House, April 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2070-7568-2022-11-2-3-7-14.
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Effective development of the domestic economy is possible only on condition of mandatory formation of a qualitatively new level of regulation of economic relations in the business environment. By its nature, entrepreneurship is an activity associated with a high level of risk and innovation, aimed at ensuring the interests of both an individual entrepreneur and an enterprise, and society. The purpose of the study, the results of which are presented in this article, is to study theoretical and methodological approaches to managing financial risks of an enterprise in modern dynamically changing conditions.
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Crouch, Rebecca, Jared Smith, Bobbi Stromer, Christian Hubley, Samuel Beal, Guilherme Lotufo, Afrachanna Butler, et al. Preparative, extraction, and analytical methods for simultaneous determination of legacy and insensitive munition (IM) constituents in aqueous, soil or sediment, and tissue matrices. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), August 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/41480.
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No standard method exists for determining levels of insensitive munition (IM) compounds in environmental matrices. This project resulted in new methods of extraction, analytical separation and quantitation of 17 legacy and 7 IM compounds, daughter products of IM, and other munition compounds absent from USEPA Method 8330B. Extraction methods were developed for aqueous (direct-injection and solid-phase extraction [SPE]), soil, sediment, and tissue samples using laboratory-spiked samples. Aqueous methods were tested on 5 water sources, with 23 of 24 compounds recovered within DoD QSM Ver5.2 limits. New solvent extraction (SE) methods enabled recovery of all 24 compounds from 6 soils within QSM limits, and a majority of the 24 compounds were recovered at acceptable levels from 4 tissues types. A modified chromatographic treatment method removed analytical interferences from tissue extracts. Two orthogonal high-performance liquid chromatography-ultraviolet (HPLC-UV) separation methods, along with an HPLC–mass spectrometric (HPLC-MS) method, were developed. Implementing these new methods should reduce labor and supply costs by approximately 50%, requiring a single extraction and sample preparation, and 2 analyses rather than 4. These new methods will support environmental monitoring of IM and facilitate execution of risk-related studies to determine long-term effects of IM compounds.
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Rankin, Nicole, Deborah McGregor, Candice Donnelly, Bethany Van Dort, Richard De Abreu Lourenco, Anne Cust, and Emily Stone. Lung cancer screening using low-dose computed tomography for high risk populations: Investigating effectiveness and screening program implementation considerations: An Evidence Check rapid review brokered by the Sax Institute (www.saxinstitute.org.au) for the Cancer Institute NSW. The Sax Institute, October 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.57022/clzt5093.
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Background Lung cancer is the number one cause of cancer death worldwide.(1) It is the fifth most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia (12,741 cases diagnosed in 2018) and the leading cause of cancer death.(2) The number of years of potential life lost to lung cancer in Australia is estimated to be 58,450, similar to that of colorectal and breast cancer combined.(3) While tobacco control strategies are most effective for disease prevention in the general population, early detection via low dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening in high-risk populations is a viable option for detecting asymptomatic disease in current (13%) and former (24%) Australian smokers.(4) The purpose of this Evidence Check review is to identify and analyse existing and emerging evidence for LDCT lung cancer screening in high-risk individuals to guide future program and policy planning. Evidence Check questions This review aimed to address the following questions: 1. What is the evidence for the effectiveness of lung cancer screening for higher-risk individuals? 2. What is the evidence of potential harms from lung cancer screening for higher-risk individuals? 3. What are the main components of recent major lung cancer screening programs or trials? 4. What is the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening programs (include studies of cost–utility)? Summary of methods The authors searched the peer-reviewed literature across three databases (MEDLINE, PsycINFO and Embase) for existing systematic reviews and original studies published between 1 January 2009 and 8 August 2019. Fifteen systematic reviews (of which 8 were contemporary) and 64 original publications met the inclusion criteria set across the four questions. Key findings Question 1: What is the evidence for the effectiveness of lung cancer screening for higher-risk individuals? There is sufficient evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of combined (pooled) data from screening trials (of high-risk individuals) to indicate that LDCT examination is clinically effective in reducing lung cancer mortality. In 2011, the landmark National Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NLST, a large-scale randomised controlled trial [RCT] conducted in the US) reported a 20% (95% CI 6.8% – 26.7%; P=0.004) relative reduction in mortality among long-term heavy smokers over three rounds of annual screening. High-risk eligibility criteria was defined as people aged 55–74 years with a smoking history of ≥30 pack-years (years in which a smoker has consumed 20-plus cigarettes each day) and, for former smokers, ≥30 pack-years and have quit within the past 15 years.(5) All-cause mortality was reduced by 6.7% (95% CI, 1.2% – 13.6%; P=0.02). Initial data from the second landmark RCT, the NEderlands-Leuvens Longkanker Screenings ONderzoek (known as the NELSON trial), have found an even greater reduction of 26% (95% CI, 9% – 41%) in lung cancer mortality, with full trial results yet to be published.(6, 7) Pooled analyses, including several smaller-scale European LDCT screening trials insufficiently powered in their own right, collectively demonstrate a statistically significant reduction in lung cancer mortality (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73–0.91).(8) Despite the reduction in all-cause mortality found in the NLST, pooled analyses of seven trials found no statistically significant difference in all-cause mortality (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.90–1.00).(8) However, cancer-specific mortality is currently the most relevant outcome in cancer screening trials. These seven trials demonstrated a significantly greater proportion of early stage cancers in LDCT groups compared with controls (RR 2.08, 95% CI 1.43–3.03). Thus, when considering results across mortality outcomes and early stage cancers diagnosed, LDCT screening is considered to be clinically effective. Question 2: What is the evidence of potential harms from lung cancer screening for higher-risk individuals? The harms of LDCT lung cancer screening include false positive tests and the consequences of unnecessary invasive follow-up procedures for conditions that are eventually diagnosed as benign. While LDCT screening leads to an increased frequency of invasive procedures, it does not result in greater mortality soon after an invasive procedure (in trial settings when compared with the control arm).(8) Overdiagnosis, exposure to radiation, psychological distress and an impact on quality of life are other known harms. Systematic review evidence indicates the benefits of LDCT screening are likely to outweigh the harms. The potential harms are likely to be reduced as refinements are made to LDCT screening protocols through: i) the application of risk predication models (e.g. the PLCOm2012), which enable a more accurate selection of the high-risk population through the use of specific criteria (beyond age and smoking history); ii) the use of nodule management algorithms (e.g. Lung-RADS, PanCan), which assist in the diagnostic evaluation of screen-detected nodules and cancers (e.g. more precise volumetric assessment of nodules); and, iii) more judicious selection of patients for invasive procedures. Recent evidence suggests a positive LDCT result may transiently increase psychological distress but does not have long-term adverse effects on psychological distress or health-related quality of life (HRQoL). With regards to smoking cessation, there is no evidence to suggest screening participation invokes a false sense of assurance in smokers, nor a reduction in motivation to quit. The NELSON and Danish trials found no difference in smoking cessation rates between LDCT screening and control groups. Higher net cessation rates, compared with general population, suggest those who participate in screening trials may already be motivated to quit. Question 3: What are the main components of recent major lung cancer screening programs or trials? There are no systematic reviews that capture the main components of recent major lung cancer screening trials and programs. We extracted evidence from original studies and clinical guidance documents and organised this into key groups to form a concise set of components for potential implementation of a national lung cancer screening program in Australia: 1. Identifying the high-risk population: recruitment, eligibility, selection and referral 2. Educating the public, people at high risk and healthcare providers; this includes creating awareness of lung cancer, the benefits and harms of LDCT screening, and shared decision-making 3. Components necessary for health services to deliver a screening program: a. Planning phase: e.g. human resources to coordinate the program, electronic data systems that integrate medical records information and link to an established national registry b. Implementation phase: e.g. human and technological resources required to conduct LDCT examinations, interpretation of reports and communication of results to participants c. Monitoring and evaluation phase: e.g. monitoring outcomes across patients, radiological reporting, compliance with established standards and a quality assurance program 4. Data reporting and research, e.g. audit and feedback to multidisciplinary teams, reporting outcomes to enhance international research into LDCT screening 5. Incorporation of smoking cessation interventions, e.g. specific programs designed for LDCT screening or referral to existing community or hospital-based services that deliver cessation interventions. Most original studies are single-institution evaluations that contain descriptive data about the processes required to establish and implement a high-risk population-based screening program. Across all studies there is a consistent message as to the challenges and complexities of establishing LDCT screening programs to attract people at high risk who will receive the greatest benefits from participation. With regards to smoking cessation, evidence from one systematic review indicates the optimal strategy for incorporating smoking cessation interventions into a LDCT screening program is unclear. There is widespread agreement that LDCT screening attendance presents a ‘teachable moment’ for cessation advice, especially among those people who receive a positive scan result. Smoking cessation is an area of significant research investment; for instance, eight US-based clinical trials are now underway that aim to address how best to design and deliver cessation programs within large-scale LDCT screening programs.(9) Question 4: What is the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening programs (include studies of cost–utility)? Assessing the value or cost-effectiveness of LDCT screening involves a complex interplay of factors including data on effectiveness and costs, and institutional context. A key input is data about the effectiveness of potential and current screening programs with respect to case detection, and the likely outcomes of treating those cases sooner (in the presence of LDCT screening) as opposed to later (in the absence of LDCT screening). Evidence about the cost-effectiveness of LDCT screening programs has been summarised in two systematic reviews. We identified a further 13 studies—five modelling studies, one discrete choice experiment and seven articles—that used a variety of methods to assess cost-effectiveness. Three modelling studies indicated LDCT screening was cost-effective in the settings of the US and Europe. Two studies—one from Australia and one from New Zealand—reported LDCT screening would not be cost-effective using NLST-like protocols. We anticipate that, following the full publication of the NELSON trial, cost-effectiveness studies will likely be updated with new data that reduce uncertainty about factors that influence modelling outcomes, including the findings of indeterminate nodules. Gaps in the evidence There is a large and accessible body of evidence as to the effectiveness (Q1) and harms (Q2) of LDCT screening for lung cancer. Nevertheless, there are significant gaps in the evidence about the program components that are required to implement an effective LDCT screening program (Q3). Questions about LDCT screening acceptability and feasibility were not explicitly included in the scope. However, as the evidence is based primarily on US programs and UK pilot studies, the relevance to the local setting requires careful consideration. The Queensland Lung Cancer Screening Study provides feasibility data about clinical aspects of LDCT screening but little about program design. The International Lung Screening Trial is still in the recruitment phase and findings are not yet available for inclusion in this Evidence Check. The Australian Population Based Screening Framework was developed to “inform decision-makers on the key issues to be considered when assessing potential screening programs in Australia”.(10) As the Framework is specific to population-based, rather than high-risk, screening programs, there is a lack of clarity about transferability of criteria. However, the Framework criteria do stipulate that a screening program must be acceptable to “important subgroups such as target participants who are from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, people from disadvantaged groups and people with a disability”.(10) An extensive search of the literature highlighted that there is very little information about the acceptability of LDCT screening to these population groups in Australia. Yet they are part of the high-risk population.(10) There are also considerable gaps in the evidence about the cost-effectiveness of LDCT screening in different settings, including Australia. The evidence base in this area is rapidly evolving and is likely to include new data from the NELSON trial and incorporate data about the costs of targeted- and immuno-therapies as these treatments become more widely available in Australia.
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Mellenthin, Claudia, Vasile Balaban, Ana Dugic, Stephane Cullati, and Bernhard Egger. Risk factors for pancreatic cancer in patients with new onset diabetes - Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. INPLASY - International Platform of Registered Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Protocols, February 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.37766/inplasy2022.2.0065.
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Review question / Objective: Which additional risk factors raise the incidence of pancreatic cancer in the population of new onset diabetics? Condition being studied: Pancreatic cancer, new onset diabetes. Eligibility criteria: Inclusion criteria are:• English abstract available• The population of newly onset diabetics is examined, at least as a subgroup. Newly diagnosed is defined as onset of maximal 3 years ago.• Information on other risk factors of patients is available in the study.
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Saldanha, Ian J., Wangnan Cao, Justin M. Broyles, Gaelen P. Adam, Monika Reddy Bhuma, Shivani Mehta, Laura S. Dominici, Andrea L. Pusic, and Ethan M. Balk. Breast Reconstruction After Mastectomy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.23970/ahrqepccer245.
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Objectives. This systematic review evaluates breast reconstruction options for women after mastectomy for breast cancer (or breast cancer prophylaxis). We addressed six Key Questions (KQs): (1) implant-based reconstruction (IBR) versus autologous reconstruction (AR), (2) timing of IBR and AR in relation to chemotherapy and radiation therapy, (3) comparisons of implant materials, (4) comparisons of anatomic planes for IBR, (5) use versus nonuse of human acellular dermal matrices (ADMs) during IBR, and (6) comparisons of AR flap types. Data sources and review methods. We searched Medline®, Embase®, Cochrane CENTRAL, CINAHL®, and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to March 23, 2021, to identify comparative and single group studies. We extracted study data into the Systematic Review Data Repository Plus (SRDR+). We assessed the risk of bias and evaluated the strength of evidence (SoE) using standard methods. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (registration number CRD42020193183). Results. We found 8 randomized controlled trials, 83 nonrandomized comparative studies, and 69 single group studies. Risk of bias was moderate to high for most studies. KQ1: Compared with IBR, AR is probably associated with clinically better patient satisfaction with breasts and sexual well-being but comparable general quality of life and psychosocial well-being (moderate SoE, all outcomes). AR probably poses a greater risk of deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism (moderate SoE), but IBR probably poses a greater risk of reconstructive failure in the long term (1.5 to 4 years) (moderate SoE) and may pose a greater risk of breast seroma (low SoE). KQ 2: Conducting IBR either before or after radiation therapy may result in comparable physical well-being, psychosocial well-being, sexual well-being, and patient satisfaction with breasts (all low SoE), and probably results in comparable risks of implant failure/loss or need for explant surgery (moderate SoE). We found no evidence addressing timing of IBR or AR in relation to chemotherapy or timing of AR in relation to radiation therapy. KQ 3: Silicone and saline implants may result in clinically comparable patient satisfaction with breasts (low SoE). There is insufficient evidence regarding double lumen implants. KQ 4: Whether the implant is placed in the prepectoral or total submuscular plane may not be associated with risk of infections that are not explicitly implant related (low SoE). There is insufficient evidence addressing the comparisons between prepectoral and partial submuscular and between partial and total submuscular planes. KQ 5: The evidence is inconsistent regarding whether human ADM use during IBR impacts physical well-being, psychosocial well-being, or satisfaction with breasts. However, ADM use probably increases the risk of implant failure/loss or need for explant surgery (moderate SoE) and may increase the risk of infections not explicitly implant related (low SoE). Whether or not ADM is used probably is associated with comparable risks of seroma and unplanned repeat surgeries for revision (moderate SoE for both), and possibly necrosis (low SoE). KQ 6: AR with either transverse rectus abdominis (TRAM) or deep inferior epigastric perforator (DIEP) flaps may result in comparable patient satisfaction with breasts (low SoE), but TRAM flaps probably increase the risk of harms to the area of flap harvest (moderate SoE). AR with either DIEP or latissimus dorsi flaps may result in comparable patient satisfaction with breasts (low SoE), but there is insufficient evidence regarding thromboembolic events and no evidence regarding other surgical complications. Conclusion. Evidence regarding surgical breast reconstruction options is largely insufficient or of only low or moderate SoE. New high-quality research is needed, especially for timing of IBR and AR in relation to chemotherapy and radiation therapy, for comparisons of implant materials, and for comparisons of anatomic planes of implant placement.
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Konnyu, Kristin J., Louise M. Thoma, Monika Reddy Bhuma, Wagnan Cao, Gaelen P. Adam, Shivani Mehta, Roy K. Aaron, et al. Prehabilitation and Rehabilitation for Major Joint Replacement. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), November 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.23970/ahrqepccer248.
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Objectives. This systematic review evaluates the rehabilitation interventions for patients who have undergone (or will undergo) total knee arthroplasty (TKA) or total hip arthroplasty (THA) for the treatment of osteoarthritis. We addressed four Key Questions (KQs): comparisons of (1) rehabilitation prior (“prehabilitation”) to TKA versus no prehabilitation, (2) comparative effectiveness of different rehabilitation programs after TKA, (3) prehabilitation prior to THA versus no prehabilitation, (4) comparative effectiveness of different rehabilitation programs after THA. Data sources and review methods. We searched Medline®, PsycINFO®, Embase®, the Cochrane Register of Clinical Trials, CINAHL®, Scopus®, and ClinicalTrials.gov from Jan 1, 2005, to May 3, 2021, to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and adequately adjusted nonrandomized comparative studies (NRCSs). We evaluated clinical outcomes selected with input from a range of stakeholders. We assessed the risk of bias and evaluated the strength of evidence (SoE) using standard methods. Meta-analysis was not feasible, and evidence was synthesized and reported descriptively. The PROSPERO protocol registration number is CRD42020199102. Results. We found 78 RCTs and 5 adjusted NRCSs. Risk of bias was moderate to high for most studies. • KQ 1: Compared with no prehabilitation, prehabilitation prior to TKA may increase strength and reduce length of hospital stay (low SoE) but may lead to comparable results in pain, range of motion (ROM), and activities of daily living (ADL) (low SoE). There was no evidence of an increased risk of harms due to prehabilitation (low SoE). • KQ 2: Various rehabilitation interventions after TKA may lead to comparable improvements in pain, ROM, and ADL (low SoE). Rehabilitation in the acute phase (initiated within 2 weeks of surgery) may lead to increased strength (low SoE) but result in similar strength when delivered in the post-acute phase (low SoE). No studies reported evidence of risk of harms due to rehabilitation delivered in the acute period following TKA. Compared with various controls, post-acute rehabilitation may not increase the risk of harms (low SoE). • KQ 3: For all assessed outcomes, there is insufficient (or no) evidence addressing the comparison between prehabilitation and no prehabilitation prior to THA. • KQ 4: Various rehabilitation interventions after THA may lead to comparable improvements in pain, strength, ADL, and quality of life. There is some evidence of no increased risk of harms due to the intervention (low SoE). • There is insufficient evidence regarding which patients may benefit from (p)rehabilitation for all KQs and insufficient evidence regarding comparisons of different providers and different settings of (p)rehabilitation for all KQs. There is insufficient evidence on costs of (p)rehabilitation and no evidence on cost effectiveness for all KQs. Conclusion. Despite the large number of studies found, the evidence regarding various prehabilitation programs and comparisons of rehabilitation programs for TKA and THA is ultimately sparse. This is a result of the diversity of interventions studied and outcomes reported across studies. As a result, the evidence is largely insufficient or of low SoE. New high-quality research is needed, using standardized intervention terminology and core outcome sets, especially to allow network meta-analyses to explore the impact of intervention attributes on patient-reported, performance-based, and healthcare-utilization outcomes.