Journal articles: 'Natural seismicity'

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Christopoulos, Stavros-Richard G., Panayiotis K. Varotsos, Jennifer Perez-Oregon, Konstantina A. Papadopoulou, Efthimios S. Skordas, and Nicholas V. Sarlis. "Natural Time Analysis of Global Seismicity." Applied Sciences 12, no. 15 (July 26, 2022): 7496. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12157496.

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Natural time analysis enables the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity, which is just the variance of natural time χ, κ1=⟨χ2⟩−⟨χ⟩2. During the last years, there has been significant progress in the natural time analysis of seismicity. Milestones in this progress are the identification of clearly distiguishable minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter κ1 of seismicity both in the regional and global scale, the emergence of an interrelation between the time correlations of the earthquake (EQ) magnitude time series and these minima, and the introduction by Turcotte, Rundle and coworkers of EQ nowcasting. Here, we apply all these recent advances in the global seismicity by employing the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. We show that the combination of the above three milestones may provide useful precursory information for the time of occurrence and epicenter location of strong EQs with M≥8.5 in GCMT. This can be achieved with high statistical significance (p-values of the order of 10−5), while the epicentral areas lie within a region covering only 4% of that investigated.

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Solař, Jaroslav. "Protecting the Brickworks against Technical Seismicity." Advanced Materials Research 1122 (August 2015): 74–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1122.74.

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In the Czech Republic, there are seismic territories with little natural seismicity only.On the other hand, the technical seismicity is frequently a pressing issue.Dynamic responses caused by the technical seismicity result in defects − in particular, in cracksin brickworks. This paper discusses possible technical and structural measures which eliminate effects of the technical seismicity and, in turn, reduce risk of damage to the brickworks..

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Keranen, Katie M., and Matthew Weingarten. "Induced Seismicity." Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 46, no. 1 (May 30, 2018): 149–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-082517-010054.

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The ability of fluid-generated subsurface stress changes to trigger earthquakes has long been recognized. However, the dramatic rise in the rate of human-induced earthquakes in the past decade has created abundant opportunities to study induced earthquakes and triggering processes. This review briefly summarizes early studies but focuses on results from induced earthquakes during the past 10 years related to fluid injection in petroleum fields. Study of these earthquakes has resulted in insights into physical processes and has identified knowledge gaps and future research directions. Induced earthquakes are challenging to identify using seismological methods, and faults and reefs strongly modulate spatial and temporal patterns of induced seismicity. However, the similarity of induced and natural seismicity provides an effective tool for studying earthquake processes. With continuing development of energy resources, increased interest in carbon sequestration, and construction of large dams, induced seismicity will continue to pose a hazard in coming years.

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Varotsos, Panayiotis A., Nicholas V. Sarlis, and Efthimios S. Skordas. "Order Parameter and Entropy of Seismicity in Natural Time before Major Earthquakes: Recent Results." Geosciences 12, no. 6 (May 26, 2022): 225. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12060225.

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A lot of work in geosciences has been completed during the last decade on the analysis in the new concept of time, termed natural time, introduced in 2001. The main advances are presented, including, among others, the following: First, the direct experimental verification of the interconnection between a Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activity and seismicity, i.e., the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity exhibit a clearly detectable minimum when an SES activity starts. These two phenomena are also linked closely in space. Second, the identification of the epicentral area and the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake (EQ) by means of the order parameter of seismicity and the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal as well as the extrema of their fluctuations. An indicative example is the M9 Tohoku EQ in Japan on 11 March 2011. Third, to answer the crucial question—when a magnitude 7 class EQ occurs—whether it is a foreshock or a mainshock. This can be answered by means of the key quantities already mentioned, i.e., the order parameter of seismicity and the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal along with their fluctuations. The explanation of the experimental findings identified before major EQs is given in a unified way on the basis of a physical model already proposed in the 1980s.

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Vallianatos, Filippos, Georgios Michas, and George Hloupis. "Seismicity Patterns Prior to the Thessaly (Mw6.3) Strong Earthquake on 3 March 2021 in Terms of Multiresolution Wavelets and Natural Time Analysis." Geosciences 11, no. 9 (September 9, 2021): 379. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11090379.

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On 3 March 2021, a strong, shallow earthquake of moment magnitude, Mw6.3, occurred in northern Thessaly (Central Greece). To investigate possible complex correlations in the evolution of seismicity in the broader area of Central Greece before the Mw6.3 event, we apply the methods of multiresolution wavelet analysis (MRWA) and natural time (NT) analysis. The description of seismicity evolution by critical parameters defined by NT analysis, integrated with the results of MRWA as the initiation point for the NT analysis, forms a new framework that may possibly lead to new universal principles that describe the generation processes of strong earthquakes. In the present work, we investigate this new framework in the seismicity prior to the Mw6.3 Thessaly earthquake. Initially, we apply MRWA to the interevent time series of the successive regional earthquakes in order to investigate the approach of the regional seismicity at critical stages and to define the starting point of the natural time domain. Then, we apply the NT analysis, showing that the regional seismicity approached criticality a few days before the occurrence of the Mw6.3 earthquake, when the κ1 natural time parameter reached the critical value of κ1 = 0.070.

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Malovichko, A. A., D. A. Malovichko, I. V. Golubeva, and Yu V. Ivanova. "Natural and Technogenic Seismicity of the Ural Region." Journal of Mining Science 41, no. 1 (January 2005): 6–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10913-005-0058-4.

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Skoumal, Robert J., Michael R. Brudzinski, and Brian S. Currie. "Distinguishing induced seismicity from natural seismicity in Ohio: Demonstrating the utility of waveform template matching." Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120, no. 9 (September 2015): 6284–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015jb012265.

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Amalia, Akrima, Udi Harmoko, and Gatot Yuliyanto. "Clustering of seismicity in the Indonesian Region for the 2018-2020 Period using the DBSCAN Algorithm." Journal of Physics and Its Applications 4, no. 1 (November 6, 2021): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/jpa.v4i1.11884.

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Indonesia is located at the confluence of 3 large, active plates that are constantly moving. Therefore, Indonesia is one of the countries that has a high level of seismicity risk. This study aims to classify seismicity data in the Indonesian region based on coordinate data which contains variable data on frequency of occurrence, depth, and strength of seismicity. Seismicity data was obtained from the BMKG official website using data for the period 2018 to 2020. The clustering technique used was the DBSCAN algorithm. This algorithm requires epsilon and MinPts input parameters. The results of the cluster formed will then be validated using silhouette coefficients. Based on the coordinate data, 4 clusters were formed with 4 disturbances. Based on the characteristic data, 3 clusters were formed with 5 disturbances. The silhouette coefficient obtained was 0.35 for coordinate data and 0.39 for characteristic data. This research is useful for increasing the use value of abundant seismicity information and can be used as an effort to mitigate seismicity natural disasters.

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Luginbuhl, Molly, John B. Rundle, and Donald L. Turcotte. "Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 377, no. 2136 (November 26, 2018): 20170397. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0397.

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A standard approach to quantifying the seismic hazard is the relative intensity (RI) method. It is assumed that the rate of seismicity is constant in time and the rate of occurrence of small earthquakes is extrapolated to large earthquakes using Gutenberg–Richter scaling. We introduce nowcasting to extend RI forecasting to time-dependent seismicity, for example, during an aftershock sequence. Nowcasting uses ‘natural time’; in seismicity natural time is the event count of small earthquakes. The event count for small earthquakes is extrapolated to larger earthquakes using Gutenberg–Richter scaling. We first review the concepts of natural time and nowcasting and then illustrate seismic nowcasting with three examples. We first consider the aftershock sequence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake on the San Andreas fault in California. Some earthquakes have higher rates of aftershock activity than other earthquakes of the same magnitude. Our approach allows the determination of the rate in real time during the aftershock sequence. We also consider two examples of induced earthquakes. Large injections of waste water from petroleum extraction have generated high rates of induced seismicity in Oklahoma. The extraction of natural gas from the Groningen gas field in The Netherlands has also generated very damaging earthquakes. In order to reduce the seismic activity, rates of injection and withdrawal have been reduced in these two cases. We show how nowcasting can be used to assess the success of these efforts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Statistical physics of fracture and earthquakes’.

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Gasc, Julien, Nadège Hilairet, Tony Yu, Thomas Ferrand, Alexandre Schubnel, and Yanbin Wang. "Faulting of natural serpentinite: Implications for intermediate-depth seismicity." Earth and Planetary Science Letters 474 (September 2017): 138–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.06.016.

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Zúñiga, F. R., and S. Wiemer. "Seismicity Patterns: Are they Always Related to Natural Causes?" pure and applied geophysics 155, no. 2-4 (August 1999): 713–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s000240050285.

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Pihulevskyi, P. H., O. V. Kendzera, K. V. Babii, L. B. Anisimova, and O. S. Kyryliuk. "Connection of Kryvbas tectonics with natural and technogenic seismicity." Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, no. 2 (April 30, 2023): 5–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2023-2/005.

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Purpose. Studying the tectonic features of the structure of the earth’s crust of Kryvyi Rih-Kremenchuk suture zone to clarify the nature of the origin of seismic events in the Kryvbas. Methodology. To analyze and generalize the data on the Kryvbas seismicity with reference to large-scale geological and tectonic maps of exploration work. To study its tectonic structure based on geological, geophysical studies and drilling of Kryvyi Rih superdeep well. Findings. In the period 2011–2021, about 1,200 seismic events were recorded on the territory of Kryvbas, the majority of which had a minor magnitude  2.0. Among them there were identified 13 powerful industrial explosions from mb = 2.7–3.5 and 20 earthquakes of tectonic origin with mb = 2.1–4.5. Powerful explosions in mines predominantly induce earthquakes. In recent years, local earthquakes began to occur in tectonic fault zones outside the ore mining area, which indicates a change in the elastic-deformation state of the geological environment. The analysis of the attributes of local earthquakes and their locations suggests that Kryvyi Rih tectonic system and the entire eastern flank of the earth’s crust of the West Inhulets-Kryvyi Rih-Kremenchuk suture zone are geodynamically active structures, where the processes of thrust and shear tectonics are also observed on a recent geological time scale. Originality. A detailed analysis of the earthquakes shows that some of them occur at significant depths in the zones of tectonic faults outside of Kryvbas. At the same time, faults in separate directions are activated, where brittle deformations and viscous-plastic formations are manifested in the past geological time. The location of local earthquakes made it possible to single out two sections and five linear zones of seismic activity in the region. Practical value. Based on the results from this research it is possible to create an applied model of the tectonic section of the earth’s crust to solve the problems of evolution and geodynamics of the lithosphere of the Ukrainian shield, mountain geology and to optimize mining. The identified faults of active inherited development are important in determining the development paths for quarries and mines in Kryvbas.

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Zuzulock, Merissa L., Oliver-Denzil S. Taylor, and Norbert H. Maerz. "Soil Fatigue from Induced Seismicity." Advances in Civil Engineering 2020 (April 15, 2020): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/7030425.

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Induced seismicity and the effects on civil engineering systems are not completely understood and infrequently studied. One specific area that is not well known is soil fatigue which includes factors such as understanding the natural conditions of the subsurface as well as operational parameters under short duration impulse loads. With the increase of geoinduced seismic activity, soil fatigue becomes of greater concern to structures in the vicinity of this seismic load. The foundations of these structures can be affected by impulse loads which can ultimately cause failure. The lack of quantitative data puts the reliability of these civil engineering systems at risk as they are not fully evaluated to determine if they are functioning as they are intended in the environments they are designed to support.

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Huang, Qinghua. "Seismicity Pattern Changes Prior to the 2008 Ms7.3 Yutian Earthquake." Entropy 21, no. 2 (January 28, 2019): 118. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e21020118.

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Seismicity pattern changes that are associated with strong earthquakes are an interesting topic with potential applications for natural hazard mitigation. As a retrospective case study of the Ms7.3 Yutian earthquake, which was an inland normal faulting event that occurred on 21 March 2008, the Region-Time-Length (RTL) method is applied to the seismological data of the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) to analyze the features of the seismicity pattern changes before the Yutian earthquake. The temporal variations of the RTL parameters of the earthquake epicenter showed that a quiescence anomaly of seismicity appeared in 2005. The Yutian main shock did not occur immediately after the local seismicity recovered to the background level, but with a time delay of about two years. The spatial variations of seismic quiescence indicated that an anomalous zone of seismic quiescence appeared near the Yutian epicentral region in 2005. This result is consistent with that obtained from the temporal changes of seismicity. The above spatio-temporal seismicity changes prior to the inland normal faulting Yutian earthquake showed similar features to those reported for some past strong earthquakes with inland strike faulting or thrust faulting. This study may provide useful information for understanding the seismogenic evolution of strong earthquakes.

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Walter, Jacob I., Cliff Frohlich, and Taylor Borgfeldt. "Natural and Induced Seismicity in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles." Seismological Research Letters 89, no. 6 (September 26, 2018): 2437–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220180105.

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Varotsos, P. A., N. V. Sarlis, E. S. Skordas, S. Uyeda, and M. Kamogawa. "Natural-time analysis of critical phenomena: The case of seismicity." EPL (Europhysics Letters) 92, no. 2 (October 1, 2010): 29002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/92/29002.

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Dahm, T., D. Becker, M. Bischoff, S. Cesca, B. Dost, R. Fritschen, S. Hainzl, et al. "Recommendation for the discrimination of human-related and natural seismicity." Journal of Seismology 17, no. 1 (June 1, 2012): 197–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10950-012-9295-6.

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Sarlis, Nicholas, Efthimios Skordas, Panayiotis Varotsos, Alejandro Ramírez-Rojas, and Elsa Flores-Márquez. "Identifying the Occurrence Time of the Deadly Mexico M8.2 Earthquake on 7 September 2017." Entropy 21, no. 3 (March 20, 2019): 301. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e21030301.

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It has been shown that some dynamic features hidden in the time series of complex systems can be unveiled if we analyze them in a time domain termed natural time. In this analysis, we can identify when a system approaches a critical point (dynamic phase transition). Here, based on natural time analysis, which enables the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity, we discuss a procedure through which we could achieve the identification of the occurrence time of the M8.2 earthquake that occurred on 7 September 2017 in Mexico in Chiapas region, which is the largest magnitude event recorded in Mexico in more than a century. In particular, we first investigated the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity in the entire Mexico and found that, during an almost 30-year period, i.e., from 1 January 1988 until the M8.2 earthquake occurrence, they were minimized around 27 July 2017. From this date, we started computing the variance of seismicity in Chiapas region and found that it approached the critical value 0.070 on 6 September 2017, almost one day before this M8.2 earthquake occurrence.

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Salvage, Rebecca O., and David W. Eaton. "Unprecedented quiescence in resource development area allows detection of long-lived latent seismicity." Solid Earth 12, no. 3 (March 31, 2021): 765–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/se-12-765-2021.

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Abstract. Recent seismicity in Alberta and north-east British Columbia has been attributed to ongoing oil and gas development in the area, due to its temporal and spatial correlation. Prior to such development, the area was seismically quiescent. Here, we show evidence that latent seismicity may occur in areas where previous operations have occurred, even during a shutdown in operations. The global COVID-19 pandemic furnished the unique opportunity to study seismicity during a long period of anthropogenic quiescence. Within the Kiskatinaw area of British Columbia, 389 events were detected from April to August 2020, which encompasses a period with very little hydraulic fracturing operations. This reduction in operations was the result of a government-imposed lockdown severely restricting the movement of people as well as a downturn in the economic market causing industry stock prices to collapse. Except for a reduction in the seismicity rate and a lack of temporal clustering that is often characteristic of hydraulic fracturing induced sequences, the general characteristics of the observed seismicity were similar to the preceding time period of active operations. During the period of relative quiescence, event magnitudes were observed between ML −0.7 and ML 1.2, which is consistent with previous event magnitudes in the area. Hypocentres occurred in a corridor orientated NW–SE, just as seismicity had done in previous years, and were located at depths associated with the target Montney formation or shallower (<2.5 km). A maximum of 21 % of the detected events during lockdown may be attributable to natural seismicity, with a further 8 % potentially attributed to dynamic triggering of seismicity from teleseismic events and 6 % related to ongoing saltwater disposal and a single operational well pad. However, this leaves ∼65 % of the seismicity detected during lockdown being unattributable to primary activation mechanisms. This seismicity is unlikely to be the result of direct pore pressure increases (as very little direct injection of fluids was occurring at the time) and we see no patterns of temporal or spatial migration in the seismicity as would be expected from direct pore pressure increases. Instead, we suggest that this latent seismicity may be generated by aseismic slip as fluids (resulting from previous hydraulic fracturing injection) become trapped within permeable formations at depth, keeping pore pressures in the area elevated and consequently allowing the generation of seismicity. Alternatively, this seismicity may be the result of fault and fracture weakening in response to previous fluid injection. This is the first time that this latent seismicity has been observed in this area of British Columbia and, as such, this may now represent the new normal background seismicity rate within the Kiskatinaw area.

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Rudziński, Łukasz, Stanisław Lasocki, Beata Orlecka-Sikora, Jan Wiszniowski, Dorota Olszewska, Jakub Kokowski, and Janusz Mirek. "Integrating Data under the European Plate Observing System from the Regional and Selected Local Seismic Networks in Poland." Seismological Research Letters 92, no. 3 (March 3, 2021): 1717–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200354.

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Abstract High-quality and open-access seismic data are of great importance for both research and increasing public awareness of actual seismic hazards and risks. We present four seismic networks that currently operate in Poland: the backbone Polish Seismological Network (PLSN), which monitors natural teleseismic events as well as regional events from Poland, and three networks that mainly serve the monitoring of anthropogenic seismicity. The acquired data from all four networks are openly available through the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) Information Technology (IT) facilities: the PLSN data within the Observatories and Research Facilities for European Seismology–European Integrated Data Archive and the anthropogenic seismicity data episodes through the induced seismicity-EPOS platform of EPOS Thematic Core Service Anthropogenic Hazards. For each network, we describe briefly the recorded seismic activity, the equipment and composition of the network, the acquisition system, and the data availability. Information from recent studies is used to demonstrate the scientific potential of the acquired anthropogenic seismicity data.

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Flores-Márquez, E. Leticia, Alejandro Ramírez-Rojas, Jennifer Perez-Oregon, N. V. Sarlis, E. S. Skordas, and P. A. Varotsos. "Natural Time Analysis of Seismicity within the Mexican Flat Slab before the M7.1 Earthquake on 19 September 2017." Entropy 22, no. 7 (June 30, 2020): 730. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e22070730.

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One of the most important subduction zones in the world is located in the Mexican Pacific Coast, where the Cocos plate inserts beneath the North American plate. One part of it is located in the Mexican Pacific Coast, where the Cocos plate inserts beneath the North American plate with different dip angles, showing important seismicity. Under the central Mexican area, such a dip angle becomes practically horizontal and such an area is known as flat slab. An earthquake of magnitude M7.1 occurred on 19 September 2017, the epicenter of which was located in this flat slab. It caused important human and material losses of urban communities including a large area of Mexico City. The seismicity recorded in the flat slab region is analyzed here in natural time from 1995 until the occurrence of this M7.1 earthquake in 2017 by studying the entropy change under time reversal and the variability β of the order parameter of seismicity as well as characterize the risk of an impending earthquake by applying the nowcasting method. The entropy change ΔS under time reversal minimizes on 21 June 2017 that is almost one week after the observation of such a minimum in the Chiapas region where a magnitude M8.2 earthquake took place on 7 September 2017 being Mexico’s largest quake in more than a century. A minimum of β was also observed during the period February–March 2017. Moreover, we show that, after the minimum of ΔS, the order parameter of seismicity starts diminishing, thus approaching gradually the critical value 0.070 around the end of August and the beginning of September 2017, which signals that a strong earthquake is anticipated shortly in the flat slab.

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Christopoulos, Stavros-Richard G., Efthimios S. Skordas, and Nicholas V. Sarlis. "On the Statistical Significance of the Variability Minima of the Order Parameter of Seismicity by Means of Event Coincidence Analysis." Applied Sciences 10, no. 2 (January 17, 2020): 662. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10020662.

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Natural time analysis has led to the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity when considering earthquakes as critical phenomena. The study of the fluctuations of this order parameter has shown that its variability exhibits minima before strong earthquakes. In this paper, we evaluate the statistical significance of such minima by using the recent method of event coincidence analysis. Our study includes the variability minima identified before major earthquakes in Japan and Eastern Mediterranean as well as in global seismicity.

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Carpenter, N. Seth, Andrew S. Holcomb, Edward W. Woolery, Zhenming Wang, John B. Hickman, and Steven L. Roche. "Natural Seismicity in and around the Rome Trough, Eastern Kentucky, from a Temporary Seismic Network." Seismological Research Letters 91, no. 3 (March 18, 2020): 1831–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220190015.

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Abstract The Rome trough is a northeast-trending graben system extending from eastern Kentucky northeastward across West Virginia and Pennsylvania into southern New York. The oil and gas potential of a formation deep in the trough, the Rogersville shale, which is ∼1 km above Precambrian basement, is being tested in eastern Kentucky. Because induced seismicity can occur from fracking formations in close proximity to basement, a temporary seismic network was deployed along the trend of the Rome trough from June 2015 through May 2019 to characterize natural seismicity. Using empirical noise models and theoretical Brune sources, minimum detectable magnitudes, Mmin, were estimated in the study area. The temporary stations reduced Mmin by an estimated 0.3–0.8 magnitude units in the vicinity of wastewater-injection wells and deep oil and gas wells testing the Rogersville shale. The first 3 yr of seismicity detected and located in the study area has been compiled. Consistent with the long-term seismicity patterns in the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, very few earthquakes occurred in the crust beneath the Rome trough—only three events were recorded—where the temporary network was most sensitive. None of these events appear to have been associated with Rogersville shale oil and gas test wells. Outside of the trough boundary faults, earthquakes are diffusely distributed in zones extending into southern Ohio to the north, and into the eastern Tennessee seismic zone to the south. The orientations of P axes from the seven first-motion focal mechanisms determined in this study are nearly parallel with both the trend of the Rome trough and with the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress in the region. This apparent alignment between the regional stress field and the strikes of faults in the trough at seismogenic depths may explain the relative lack of earthquake activity in the trough compared with the surrounding crust to the north and south.

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Seeber, Leonardo, and John G. Armbruster. "Natural and Induced Seismicity in the Lake Erie-Lake Ontario Region: Reactivation of Ancient Faults with Little Neotectonic Displacement." Géographie physique et Quaternaire 47, no. 3 (November 23, 2007): 363–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/032964ar.

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ABSTRACT The two most prominent seismic zones in the Lake Erie-Lake Ontario region are associated with the Akron magnetic lineament and with the Clarendon-Linden fault. Both these features are recognized from geophysical data as regional basement structures related to the Grenville collisional orogen. Neotectonic displacement is not geologically evident, although Paleozoic reactivation is manifested by the Clarendon-Linden fault. We have sharpened the definition of seismic zones in the region by introducing newly discovered events, improving constraints on locations and size for many others, and omitting unreliable ones. This seismicity tends to occur on old faults with minor neotectonic displacements. Related conclusions are: 1) neotectonic surface displacement is not necessary for fault capability, 2) seismogenic faults may have geological and/or geophysical expressions, and 3) a stationary moment release at the historic level requires more capable faults than the ones active during the historic period. Waste fluid injection, oil recovery, and salt-brine recovery have been implicated in cases of induced seismicity in the study area and might have contributed a significant portion of the known earthquakes. Fluid is being injected into the basal platform formation at a depth of 1.8 km near Ashtabula, Ohio. In July 1987, about a year after the onset of injection, a mbLg=3.8 main shock occurred within a 60 km wide area with no known prior seismicity. Aftershocks detected by a short-term local seismic network define a vertical left-lateral fault in the basement just below the platform rocks as close as 700 m from the injection well, probably a reactivated pre-existing fault. Subsequent seismicity suggests a westward migration by 5-10 km, possibly along the same fault.

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Eyre, Thomas S., Megan Zecevic, Rebecca O. Salvage, and David W. Eaton. "A Long-Lived Swarm of Hydraulic Fracturing-Induced Seismicity Provides Evidence for Aseismic Slip." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 5 (July 14, 2020): 2205–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120200107.

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ABSTRACT Seismic swarms are defined as an increase in seismicity that does not show a clear mainshock–aftershock sequence. Typically, swarms are primarily associated with either fluid migration or slow earthquakes (aseismic slip). In this study, we analyze a swarm induced by hydraulic fracturing (HF) that persisted for an unusually long duration of more than 10 months. Swarms ascribed to fluid injection are usually characterized by an expanding seismicity front; in this case, however, characteristics such as a relatively steady seismicity rate over time and lack of hypocenter migration cannot be readily explained by a fluid-diffusion model. Here, we show that a different model for HF-induced seismicity, wherein an unstable region of a fault is loaded by proximal, pore-pressure-driven aseismic slip, better explains our observations. According to this model, the steady seismicity rate can be explained by a steady slip velocity, while the spatial stationarity of the event distribution is due to lateral confinement of the creeping region of the fault with increased pore pressure. Our results may have important implications for other induced or natural seismic swarms, which could be similarly explained by aseismic loading of asperities driven by fluid overpressure rather than the often-attributed fluid-migration model.

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Hicks, Stephen P., James Verdon, Brian Baptie, Richard Luckett, Zoë K. Mildon, and Thomas Gernon. "A Shallow Earthquake Swarm Close to Hydrocarbon Activities: Discriminating between Natural and Induced Causes for the 2018–2019 Surrey, United Kingdom, Earthquake Sequence." Seismological Research Letters 90, no. 6 (August 28, 2019): 2095–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220190125.

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ABSTRACT Earthquakes induced by subsurface industrial activities are a globally emotive issue, with a growing catalog of induced earthquake sequences. However, attempts at discriminating between natural and induced causes, particularly for anomalously shallow seismicity, can be challenging. An earthquake swarm during 2018–2019 in southeast England with a maximum magnitude of ML 3.2 received great public and media attention because of its proximity to operating oilfields. It is therefore vital and timely to provide a detailed characterization of the earthquake sequence at present, and to decide based on current evidence, whether the earthquakes were likely natural or induced. We detected 168 low‐magnitude earthquakes and computed detailed source parameters of these events. Most earthquakes occurred at a shallow depth of 2.3 km, >1 km deeper than the geological formations targeted by the oilfields, and laterally >3 km away from the drill sites. We combine the east–west‐trending cluster of the seismicity with 2D seismic reflection profiles to find the causative fault system for the earthquakes. A b‐value close to unity and strike‐slip faulting mechanisms are consistent with tectonic reactivation along a pre‐existing fault. Overall, we find no indicators in the earthquake parameters that would strongly suggest an induced source. Nor do we find any clear trends between seismicity and drilling activities based on operational logs provided by the operators. Injected volumes are near zero and monthly production amounts are many orders of magnitude smaller than other reported cases of extraction‐induced seismicity. On balance, and based on the available evidence, we find it currently unlikely that nearby industrial activities induced the seismic swarm. Most likely, the Surrey earthquakes offer a uniquely detailed insight into shallow seismicity within sedimentary basins. Nevertheless, self‐reporting of injection and production times and volumes by operators, and the lack of easily and publicly available oilfield operational data continues to be a point of concern for local residents.

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Putnis, Andrew, Bjørn Jamtveit, and Håkon Austrheim. "Metamorphic Processes and Seismicity: the Bergen Arcs as a Natural Laboratory." Journal of Petrology 58, no. 10 (October 1, 2017): 1871–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/petrology/egx076.

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Emanov, Aleksandr, Aleksey Emanov, and Aleksandr Fateev. "Bachatskiy induced earthquake on June 18, 2013, ML=6.1, I0=7 (Kuzbass)." Российский сейсмологический журнал [Russian Journal of Seismology] 2, no. 1 (March 18, 2020): 48–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.35540/2686-7907.2020.1.05.

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The Bachatsky earthquake of 18 June 2013 and a seismic activation of the same name coal strip mine, started several years before the earthquake and still persists today, have been studied using temporal local seismic arrays in the area. It was found experimentally that the seismic process area is closely connected to open workings, and the earthquakes are extend-ed from the working bed to a depth of 4-5 km. Adjacent to the mine depression sedimentary rocks were activated. The technogenic seismic regime is continuous and not stationary: intervals of background seismicity with relatively weak and seldom events are disturbed by bursts of activity with a rise in the magnitude of stronger earthquakes and frequency of occurrence of weak events. The seismic activation may last for 1–3 months. During the last five years, four seismic activations have been recorded, three of which were generated by large earthquakes of 09.02.2012, ML4.3; 04.03.2013, ML3.9; 18.06.2013, ML6.1. The last one was completed by a series of perceptible earthquakes with local magnitude of 3.0–3.5. The focal mechanism of the Bachatsky earthquake is a thrust fault with one of the motion planes corresponding to the anthropogenic impact. The earthquake flow forms a single process in the space with the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship different from the natural seismicity. The studied induced seismicity does not correspond to the structural regularities of natural seismicity in the Altai-Sayan mountain area. The findings prove that the Bachatsky earthquake and associated activation can be considered as man-made events.

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Varotsos, Panayiotis A., Nicholas V. Sarlis, and Efthimios S. Skordas. "Phenomena preceding major earthquakes interconnected through a physical model." Annales Geophysicae 37, no. 3 (May 10, 2019): 315–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-37-315-2019.

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Abstract. The analysis of earthquake time series in a new time domain termed natural time enables the uncovering of hidden properties in time series of complex systems and has been recently employed as the basis of a method to estimate seismic risk. Natural time also enables the determination of the order parameter of seismicity, which is a quantity by means of which one can identify when the system approaches the critical point (the mainshock occurrence is considered the new phase). Applying this analysis, as an example, to the Japanese seismic data from 1 January 1984 until the super-giant M 9 Tōhoku earthquake on 11 March 2011, we find that almost 3 months before its occurrence the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal is minimized on 22 December 2010, which signals an impending major earthquake. On this date the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity exhibit an abrupt increase. This increase is accompanied by various phenomena; e.g., from this date the horizontal GPS azimuths start to become gradually oriented toward the southern direction, while they had random orientation during the preceding period. Two weeks later, a minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity appears accompanied by anomalous Earth magnetic field variations and by full alignment of the orientations of GPS azimuths southwards leading to the most intense crust uplift. These phenomena are discussed and found to be in accordance with a physical model which seems to explain on a unified basis anomalous precursory changes observed either in ground-based measurements or in satellite data.

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Kumar, Susheel, and Nitin Sharma. "The seismicity of central and north-east Himalayan region." Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy 49, no. 3 (September 1, 2019): 265–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/congeo-2019-0014.

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Abstract The Himalayan range extends upto 2400 km arc from Indus river valley in the west to Brahmaputra river valley in the east of India. Due to distinct geological structures of Himalayan seismic belt, seismicity in Himalaya is inhomogeneous. The inhomogeneity in seismicity is responsible for a number of seismic gaps in the Himalayan seismic belt. Thus Iin the present study, we proposed the study of spatial and temporal evolution of seismicity in entire central and north-east Himalayan region by using Gutenberg-Richter relationship. A detailed study on the behavior of natural seismicity in and around the seismic gap regions is carried out. The study region is segmented in four meridional regions (A) 80°E to 83.5°E, (B) 83.5°E to 87.5°E, (C) 87.5°E to 90°E and (D) 90°E to 98°E along with a fixed latitude belt. The homogeneous catalogue with 3 ≤ Mb ≤ 6.5 is used for the spatial and temporal analysis of seismicity in terms of b-value. It is find out that pockets of lower b-values are coinciding over and around stress accumulated regions. The observed low b-value before occurrence of the Nepal earthquake of 25th April, 2015 supports the argument of impending occurrence of moderate to large magnitude earthquake in Sikkim and north-east Himalayan region in future.

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Clancey, Gregory. "Japanese Seismicity and the Limits of Prediction." Journal of Asian Studies 71, no. 2 (May 2012): 333–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021911812000058.

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Almost every destructive earthquake opens social and political fault lines as well as natural ones, and those of the Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011 are notable only for their local depth and global circulation. Seismicity is a geographically selective concern, but because radiation is involved in the present instance, the stake-holders in debates surrounding the earthquake are much more numerous and spread over a far wider map. In fact seismicity, as opposed to radiation, has receded in most contemporary discussions of the earthquake's aftermath, just as “Sanriku,” the area most damaged by the tsunami, has been displaced by “Fukushima” as shorthand for the event as a whole.

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Rodríguez-Martínez, Juan M., Eduardo A. Rossello, Arquímedes Cruz López, Lilia E.Arriaga-Díaz de León, and Javier Eugenio Bermúdez-Cerda. "SHALLOW SEISMICITY AND FLUID EXPLOITATION IN THE NORTHERN BURGOS BASIN (NUEVO LEÓN, MÉXICO)." EPH - International Journal of Science And Engineering 4, no. 3 (September 27, 2018): 130–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.53555/ephijse.v4i3.179.

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This paper examines the relationships between recent shallow seismicity and exploitation of fluids in the northern Burgos Basin where cumulative seismic events recorded in the State of Nuevo Leon reach a total of 304 earthquakes between 2006 and 2016. In detail, 2 to 5 yearly events occurred from 2006 to 2011; but a later remarkable increase was evident as follows: 89 in 2012, 69 in 2013, 75 in 2014, 31 in 2015 and 27 in 2016. This behavior doesn’t match the random fluctuations from natural seismicity rates. A statistical analysis allowed us to determine that the sequence of earthquakes after 2011 could be related to the activity of exploratory wells in the Burgos Basin, which were drilled down to the Pimienta (Upper Jurassic) and Agua Nueva (Upper Cretaceous) shale gas plays. The epicenters located in the State of Nuevo Leon, in the municipalities of China, General Terán, Montemorelos and Los Ramones, were associated with the Upper Jurassic Pimienta and Upper Cretaceous Agua Nueva shale gas fields. Only 17 earthquakes had magnitudes ranging from 4.0 - 4.5 Richter magnitude and those were associated with the exploratory wells Anhelido-1, Arbolero 1, Batial-1, Durian-1, Kernel-1, Mosquete-1, Neritas-1, Nuncio-1, Serbal-1 and Tangram-1. The hypocenters correspond to the depth at which the Pimienta and Agua Nueva Formations lie; hence, sharp changes in the minor shock frequencies were considered as indicators of induced seismicity related to hydraulic fracturing for fluid extraction. The scatterplot of the frequency and magnitude of events for 2009-2014 shows slopes between -7.0963 to -1.1538 that were considerably more negative than the natural seismicity values which span from 0.75 to 0.9. The slopes for 2012, 2013 and 2014 are negatives (-7.0963, -0.3656 and -0.1333), respectively. These dramatic changes in increasing of the minor shock sequences in the Burgos Basin allow us to be considered as indicators of induced seismicity due to fluid exploitation. This interpretation is based on the frequency and magnitude of shocks which achieve values of hydraulic fracturing-induced earthquakes associated with anthropogenic fracking, similar to other seismicity data obtained in different parts of the world where this Technique is applied.

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Tashlykova, Tatiana G., Tamara G. Ryashchenko, Anna A. Dolgaya, and Elena A. Lukyanova. "Induced seismicity: a geo-ecological problem of a technogenic nature." Environmental & Socio-economic Studies 4, no. 3 (September 1, 2016): 21–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/environ-2016-0014.

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Abstract A debatable problem of the display of induced seismicity and its causes during the construction of reservoirs (Reservoir Induced Seismicity - RIS) is considered on the basis of an analysis of various publications. This paper describes the history of the evolution of ideas about the possibility of the activation of seismic events in the zones of influence of artificial reservoirs and examples of such activation in aseismic areas, which is a medium geological response to technogenic interference (e.g. Shivajisagar reservoir in West India, Mead reservoir in the USA, Danjiangkou Reservoir in central China, Nurek reservoir in Central Asia, Chirkey reservoir in Dagestan and other). The problem and reasons of induced seismicity (RIS) are debatable. however, published examples demonstrate the existence of this process. For reservoirs with different amounts of water RIS is an inseparable component of the natural and man-made geological process. The world statistics knows cases of seismicity intensification in areas near small man-made reservoirs with low pressure levels (Belecha in former Yugoslavia, Marathon in Greece, Grandval in France). In addition, it was found that the number of local earthquakes increased after creating a cascade of three small water reservoirs (Studen Kladenets, Kardzhali and Ivaylovgrad) in the basin of The Arda river (Bulgaria). The RIS examples listed above allow us to think that it is not only the creation of large reservoirs that change (in some cases, intensifies) the local seismicity in the surrounding area. No reservoir, no matter what size it is, is insured from such geological process. At the present time there are more than 100 places in the world with displays of induced seismicity due to reservoir construction. In India there are up to eight reservoirs with these problems. Induced seismicity associated with the influence of man-made water reservoirs, causes a specific geo-ecological risks to the surrounding areas.

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Park, Yongsoo, Gregory C. Beroza, and William L. Ellsworth. "Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas." Seismic Record 2, no. 3 (July 1, 2022): 197–206. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0320220020.

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Abstract Oklahoma and Kansas experienced unprecedented seismic activity over the past decade due to earthquakes associated with unconventional hydrocarbon development. The modest natural seismicity and incomplete knowledge of the fault network in the region made it difficult to anticipate the locations of earthquakes with larger magnitudes (Mw≥4). Here, we show that monitoring of microearthquakes at regional scale using a pretrained neural phase picker and an earthquake relocation algorithm can illuminate unknown fault structures, and deliver information that can be synthesized for earthquake forecasting. We found that 80% of the larger earthquakes that occurred in the past decade could have been anticipated based on the spatial extent of the seismicity clusters that were formed before these earthquakes occurred. We also found that once a seismicity cluster with a length scale enough to host a larger earthquake was formed, there was a ∼5% chance that it would host one or more larger earthquakes within a year. This probability is nearly an order of magnitude higher than one based on Gutenberg–Richter statistics and preceding seismicity. Applying our approach in practice can provide critical information on seismic hazards for risk management and regulatory decision making.

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Finnegan, Riley, Jeffrey R. Moore, Paul R. Geimer, Erin K. Bessette-Kirton, and Alex Dzubay. "Ground Motion Amplification at Natural Rock Arches in the Colorado Plateau." Seismic Record 2, no. 3 (July 1, 2022): 156–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0320220017.

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Abstract Thousands of rock arches are situated within the central Colorado Plateau—a region experiencing small- to moderate-magnitude contemporary seismicity. Recent anthropogenic activity has substantially increased the seismicity rate in some areas, raising questions about the potential for vibration damage of natural arches, many of which have high cultural value. However, predictions of the vibration response and potential for damage at a given site are limited by a lack of data describing spectral amplification of ground motion on these landforms. We analyzed 13 sandstone arches in Utah, computing site-to-reference spectral amplitude ratios from continuous ambient seismic data, and compared these to spectral ratios during earthquakes and teleseismic activity. We found peak ground velocities on arches at their dominant natural modes (in the range of 2–20 Hz) are ∼20–180 times the velocity on adjacent bedrock, due to amplification arising from slender geometry and low modal damping (0.8%–2.7%). Ambient spectral ratios are generally 1.2–2.0 times the coseismic spectral ratios. Because arches experience highly amplified ground motion, the range of earthquakes considered potentially damaging may need to be revised to include lower-magnitude events. Our results have implications for conservation management of these and other culturally valuable landforms.

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Lu, Jianrong, and Ahmad Ghassemi. "Coupled Thermo–Hydro–Mechanical–Seismic Modeling of EGS Collab Experiment 1." Energies 14, no. 2 (January 15, 2021): 446. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14020446.

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An important technical issue in the enhanced geothermal system (EGS) is the process of fracture shear and dilation, fracture network propagation and induced seismicity. EGS development requires an ability to reliably predict the fracture network’s permeability evolution. Laboratory and field studies such as EGS Collab and Utah FORGE, and modeling simulations provide valuable lessons for successful commercial EGS design. In this work we present a modeling analysis of EGS Collab Testbed Experiment 1 (May 24, Stim-II ≅ 164 Notch) and interpret the stimulation results in relation to the creation of a fracture network. In doing so, we use an improved 3D discrete fracture network model coupled with a 3D thermo-poroelastic finite element model (FEM) which can consider fracture network evolution and induced seismicity. A dual-scale semi-deterministic fracture network is generated by combining data from image logs, foliations/micro-fractures, and core. The natural fracture properties (e.g., length and asperity) follow a stochastic distribution. The fracture network propagation under injection is considered by an ultrafast analytical approach. This coupled method allows for multiple seismic events to occur on and around a natural fracture. The uncertainties of seismic event clouds are better constrained using the energy conservation law. Numerical simulations show that the simulated fracture pressure profiles reasonably follow the trend observed in the field test. The simulations support the concept that a natural fracture was propagated from the injection well connecting with the production well via intersection and coalescence with other natural fractures consistent with plausible flow paths observed on the field. The fracture propagation profiles from numerical modeling generally match the field observation. The distribution of simulated micro-seismicity have good agreement with the field-observed data.

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37

Duboeuf, Laure, Louis De Barros, Maria Kakurina, Yves Guglielmi, Frederic Cappa, and Benoit Valley. "Aseismic deformations perturb the stress state and trigger induced seismicity during injection experiments." Geophysical Journal International 224, no. 2 (November 11, 2020): 1464–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa515.

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SUMMARY Fluid injections can trigger seismicity even on faults that are not optimally oriented for reactivation, suggesting either sufficiently large fluid pressure or local stress perturbations. Understanding how stress field may be perturbed during fluid injections is crucial in assessing the risk of induced seismicity and the efficiency of deep fluid stimulation projects. Here, we focus on a series of in situ decametric experiments of fluid-induced seismicity, performed at 280 m depth in an underground gallery, while synchronously monitoring the fluid pressure and the activated fractures movements. During the injections, seismicity occurred on existing natural fractures and bedding planes that are misoriented to slip relative to the background stress state, which was determined from the joint inversion of downhole fluid pressure and mechanical displacements measured at the injection. We then compare this background stress with the one estimated from the inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms. We find significant differences in the orientation of the stress tensor components, thus highlighting local perturbations. After discussing the influence of the gallery, the pore pressure variation and the geology, we show that the significant stress perturbations induced by the aseismic deformation (which represents more than 96 per cent of the total deformation) trigger the seismic reactivation of fractures with different orientations.

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Hejmanowski, Ryszard, Wojciech T. Witkowski, Artur Guzy, and Agnieszka Malinowska. "Identification of the ground movements caused by mining-induced seismicity with the satellite interferometry." Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 382 (April 22, 2020): 297–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-297-2020.

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Abstract. The assessment of the impact of mining-induced seismicity on the natural environment and infrastructure is often limited to the analysis of terrain surface vibrations. However, similar seismic phenomena, like earthquakes, may also imply dislocations and deformations of the rock mass. Such ground movements may occur in areas which are not directly under the influence of the mining. The study of the displacement field caused by mining-induced seismicity is usually carried out with the use of geodetic methods. Classical geodetic measurements provide discrete information about observed ground movements. As a result, they generally do not provide spatially and temporally relevant estimates of the total range and values of ground movements for specific periods of interest. Moreover, mining-induced seismicity causes a severe threat to buildings. That is why, regarding the complexity of the mechanism of occurrence of mining-induced seismicity and their impact on ground movements, this problem remains a substantial research issue. The presented research aimed to analyse the ground movements caused by mining-induced seismicity. The ground displacements were established based on data from Sentinel-1 satellites applying differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR). The results of the investigation in the copper mining area of the Lower Silesia region of Poland revealed that the observed subsidence caused by mining-induced seismicity usually has a shape of a regular ellipse. The radius of these ground movements does not exceed approximately 2–3 km from the mining-induced tremor's epicenter, and the total subsidence reaches ca. 10–20 cm. More than 50 % of the total subsidence is observed on the surface within a few days after the mining tremor occurrence. Furthermore, the deformations of the surface occur when the energy of mining-induced tremor reaches values of the order of 105 J or higher. The presented research can contribute to better identification and evaluation of the mechanism of the rock mass deformation process caused by mining-induced seismicity. In addition, the use of satellite radar interferometry improves the quality of monitoring of these dynamic phenomena significantly. The data retrieved using this method allow for quasi-continuous monitoring of the local subsidence bowls caused by mining-induced seismicity.

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Pihulevskyi, P. G., L. B. Anisimova, O. O. Kalinichenko, N. B. Panteleeva, and O. V. Hanchuk. "Analysis of natural and technogenic factors on the seismicity of Kryvyi Rih." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1840, no. 1 (March 1, 2021): 012018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1840/1/012018.

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Keep, M., J. Hengesh, and B. Whitney. "Natural seismicity and tectonic geomorphology reveal regional transpressive strain in northwestern Australia." Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 59, no. 3 (April 2012): 341–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08120099.2012.667439.

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Sarlis, N. V., E. S. Skordas, and P. A. Varotsos. "Order parameter fluctuations of seismicity in natural time before and after mainshocks." EPL (Europhysics Letters) 91, no. 5 (September 1, 2010): 59001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/91/59001.

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Varotsos, P. A., N. V. Sarlis, and E. S. Skordas. "Scale-specific order parameter fluctuations of seismicity in natural time before mainshocks." EPL (Europhysics Letters) 96, no. 5 (November 16, 2011): 59002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/96/59002.

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43

Zhang, Hongliang, David W. Eaton, Ge Li, Yajing Liu, and Rebecca M. Harrington. "Discriminating induced seismicity from natural earthquakes using moment tensors and source spectra." Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 121, no. 2 (February 2016): 972–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015jb012603.

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Konstantinovskaya, N. L., A. G. Goev, and T. V. Danilova. "Possible consequenses of the technogenic seismic impact on geological environment of the central part of East European craton from the small-aperture seismic group «Mikhnevo»." Moscow University Bulletin. Series 4. Geology, no. 6 (February 6, 2023): 95–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.33623/0579-9406-2022-6-95-109.

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The results of natural and man- made seismicity long-term observations on the Eastern European Platform (EEP) according to the data of the small-aperture seismic group (MSG) “Mikhnevo” IDG RAS are summarized. It is shown that technogenic seismicity is dominant in this area. Descriptions of wave forms from blasts at the largest quarries of the Belgorod and Kursk regions are given. Special attention to the assessment of energy from explosions produced at numerous relatively small quarries located in the central part of the EEP is paid. The energy assessment of the total technogenic impact on the environment is given. The results of registration and location of natural-tectonic events that occurred on the territory of the central part of the EEP, previously considered aseismic, are shown. The negative impact on the territories located near the existing quarries from the resulting dust and gas emissions during drilling and blasting and other mining operations was noted.

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Vilarrasa, Víctor, Jesus Carrera, Sebastià Olivella, Jonny Rutqvist, and Lyesse Laloui. "Induced seismicity in geologic carbon storage." Solid Earth 10, no. 3 (June 19, 2019): 871–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/se-10-871-2019.

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Abstract. Geologic carbon storage, as well as other geo-energy applications, such as geothermal energy, seasonal natural gas storage and subsurface energy storage imply fluid injection and/or extraction that causes changes in rock stress field and may induce (micro)seismicity. If felt, seismicity has a negative effect on public perception and may jeopardize wellbore stability and damage infrastructure. Thus, induced earthquakes should be minimized to successfully deploy geo-energies. However, numerous processes may trigger induced seismicity, which contribute to making it complex and translates into a limited forecast ability of current predictive models. We review the triggering mechanisms of induced seismicity. Specifically, we analyze (1) the impact of pore pressure evolution and the effect that properties of the injected fluid have on fracture and/or fault stability; (2) non-isothermal effects caused by the fact that the injected fluid usually reaches the injection formation at a lower temperature than that of the rock, inducing rock contraction, thermal stress reduction and stress redistribution around the cooled region; (3) local stress changes induced when low-permeability faults cross the injection formation, which may reduce their stability and eventually cause fault reactivation; (4) stress transfer caused by seismic or aseismic slip; and (5) geochemical effects, which may be especially relevant in carbonate-containing formations. We also review characterization techniques developed by the authors to reduce the uncertainty in rock properties and subsurface heterogeneity both for the screening of injection sites and for the operation of projects. Based on the review, we propose a methodology based on proper site characterization, monitoring and pressure management to minimize induced seismicity.

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Vallianatos, Filippos, Georgios Michas, George Hloupis, and Georgios Chatzopoulos. "The Evolution of Preseismic Patterns Related to the Central Crete (Mw6.0) Strong Earthquake on 27 September 2021 Revealed by Multiresolution Wavelets and Natural Time Analysis." Geosciences 12, no. 1 (January 10, 2022): 33. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12010033.

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On 27 September 2021, a shallow earthquake with focal depth of 10 km and moment magnitude Mw6.0 occurred onshore in central Crete (Greece). The evolution of possible preseismic patterns in the area of central Crete before the Mw6.0 event was investigated by applying the method of multiresolution wavelet analysis (MRWA), along with that of natural time (NT). The monitoring of preseismic patterns by critical parameters defined by NT analysis, integrated with the results of MRWA as the initiation point for the NT analysis, forms a promising framework that may lead to new universal principles that describe the evolution patterns before strong earthquakes. Initially, we apply MRWA to the interevent time series of the successive regional earthquakes in order to investigate the approach of the regional seismicity towards critical stages and to define the starting point of the natural time domain. Then, using the results of MRWA, we apply the NT analysis, showing that the regional seismicity approached criticality for a prolonged period of ~40 days before the occurrence of the Mw6.0 earthquake, when the κ1 natural time parameter reached the critical value of κ1 = 0.070, as suggested by the NT method.

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Duverger, Clara, Gilles Mazet-Roux, Laurent Bollinger, Aurélie Guilhem Trilla, Amaury Vallage, Bruno Hernandez, and Yves Cansi. "A decade of seismicity in metropolitan France (2010–2019): the CEA/LDG methodologies and observations." BSGF - Earth Sciences Bulletin 192 (2021): 25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/bsgf/2021014.

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We summarize ten years of the French seismicity recorded by the Geophysical and Detection Laboratory (LDG) of the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) network from 2010 to 2019. During this period, 25 265 natural earthquakes were detected by the LDG and located within metropolitan France and its immediate vicinity. This seismicity contributes to more than 47% of the natural earthquakes instrumentally recorded since 1962 (mainly due to the improvement of network capacity), and includes about 28% of the most significant earthquakes with a magnitude ML ≥ 4.0. Recent seismic events therefore significantly expand the available national catalogues. The spatial distribution of 2010–2019 earthquakes is broadly similar to the previously recorded instrumental pattern of seismicity, with most of the seismic activity concentrated in the French Alps, the Pyrenees, Brittany, the upper Rhine Graben and the Central Massif. A large part of the seismic activity is related to individual events. The largest earthquakes of the last ten years include the November 11, 2019 Le Teil earthquake with ML 5.4 and epicentral intensity VII–VIII, which occurred in the Rhone valley; the April 28, 2016 La Rochelle earthquake with ML 5.1 and epicentral intensity V, which occurred at the southernmost extremity of the Armorican Massif in the vicinity of the Oléron island; and the April 7, 2014 Barcelonnette earthquake with ML 5.1 and epicentral intensity V–VI, which occurred in the Ubaye valley in the Alps. In 2019, two other moderate earthquakes of ML 5.1 and ML 4.9 stroke the western part of France, in Charente-Maritime and Maine-et-Loire departments, respectively. The recent moderate earthquake occurrences and the large number of small earthquakes recorded give both the potential to revise some regional historical events and to determine more robust frequency-magnitude distributions, which are critical for seismic hazard assessment but complex due to low seismicity rates in France. The LDG seismic network installed since the early 1960s also allows a better characterization of the temporal structure of seismicity, partly diffused and in the form of mainshock-aftershocks sequences or transient swarms. These aspects are important in order to lower the uncertainties associated to seismogenic sources and improve the models in seismic hazard assessment for metropolitan France.

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Ščotka, Martin, and Branislav Valent. "Analysis of the seismic and paraseismic resistance of the VUJE X=70 technology base." MATEC Web of Conferences 352 (2021): 00015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/202135200015.

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Vibration caused by natural seismicity and paraseismicity used in manufacturing facilities can affect the quality of production activity. The vibration velocity of concrete slabs which are impacted by seismic action can be determined by frequency response spectrum. The paper presents a case study of a real industrial assessment.

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Battimelli, Elvira. "Exploitation of energy geo-resources and their impacts on the environment." EPJ Web of Conferences 268 (2022): 00015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/202226800015.

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The increase of the world population has led to a major demand for energy with a consequent huge exploitation of natural fossil resources. To build a sustainable future and reach the goals of the green economy, it is necessary to gradually use low-carbon energies taking into account the possible risks associated with each type of energy production. A much-debated incidental event is the anthropogenic or induced seismicity connected with the exploitation of energy geo-resources. It arises because of changes in the pore pressure of subsurface rocks that, in turn, create increased stress that can exceed the threshold value for fracture. This situation may verify from underground extraction or injection of fluids, geothermal energy production, storage of CO2, natural gas, or hydrogen in underground cavities. The interest of the scientific community, politics and society towards this issue has grown in the last decade especially after the wide use of the fracking technique in the United States and the occurrence of the 2012 Emilia Romagna earthquake (Italy). Both conventional and unconventional geo-resources exploitation techniques can induce seismicity causing damage to the industrial plant itself and the surrounding buildings especially in highly urbanized areas and in extreme situations even generate loss of life. It is, therefore, necessary to carry out detailed studies of seismicity occurred in areas of geo-resources exploitation to expand knowledge of this phenomenon and develop safety protocols to prevent and mitigate the risks.

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Sarlis, Nicholas V., Efthimios S. Skordas, and Panayiotis A. Varotsos. "Natural Time Analysis: Results Related to Two Earthquakes in Greece during 2019." Proceedings 24, no. 1 (June 4, 2019): 20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/iecg2019-06194.

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The following two earthquakes occurred in Greece during 2019: First, a Mw5.4 earthquake close to Preveza city in Western Greece on 5 February and a Mw5.3 earthquake 50 km East of Patras on 30 March. Here, we present the natural time analysis of the Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activities that have been recorded before these two earthquakes. In addition, we explain how the occurrence times of these two earthquakes can be identified by analyzing in natural time the seismicity subsequent to the SES activities.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Natural seismicity'

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