Journal articles: 'Natural experiment'

1

Kennedy‐Shaffer, Lee. "Baseball's natural experiment." Significance 19, no. 5 (September 26, 2022): 42–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1740-9713.01691.

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Lazurskii, A. F. "The Natural Experiment." Journal of Russian & East European Psychology 35, no. 2 (March 1997): 32–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.2753/rpo1061-0405350232.

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Heath, Davidson, Matthew C. Ringgenberg, Mehrdad Samadi, and Ingrid M. Werner. "Reusing Natural Experiments." International Finance Discussion Paper 2022, no. 1339 (April 1, 2022): 1–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/ifdp.2022.1339.

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After a natural experiment is first used, other researchers often reuse the setting, examining different outcome variables. We use simulations based on real data to illustrate the multiple hypothesis testing problem that arises when researchers reuse natural experiments. We then provide guidance for future inference based on popular empirical settings including difference-in-differences regressions, instrumental variables regressions, and regression discontinuity designs. When we apply our guidance to two extensively studied natural experiments, business combination laws and the Regulation SHO pilot, we find that many results that were statistically significant using single hypothesis testing do not survive corrections for multiple hypothesis testing.

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Myers, James. "Chinese as a natural experiment." Mental Lexicon 5, no. 3 (December 31, 2010): 421–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1075/ml.5.3.09mye.

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The Chinese lexicon is characterized by its typologically unique one-to-one-to-one mapping of morphemes, syllables, and orthographic characters. This architecture poses practical difficulties for the psycholinguist wanting to study lexical processing in Chinese. More seriously, seen as a natural experiment, Chinese challenges assumptions that processing models traditionally make about the roles of phonemes, morphemes, lemmas, and words in lexical access. It is argued that cross-linguistic variation in lexical processing cannot be accommodated by simply modifying lexical processing models, but instead what is needed is a universal learning model. Suggestions are given for how such a model could be tested empirically by extending methods already used for testing language-specific lexical processing.

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Cannon, Edmund Stuart, and Giam Pietro Cipriani. "Euro-Illusion: A Natural Experiment." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 38, no. 5 (2006): 1391–403. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0066.

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Luedtke, Barbara E. "An Experiment in Natural Fracture." Lithic Technology 15, no. 2 (August 1986): 55–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01977261.1986.11720868.

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HAUGAARD, JEFFREY J., and CINDY HAZAN. "Adoption as a natural experiment." Development and Psychopathology 15, no. 4 (November 14, 2003): 909–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954579403000427.

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Adoption provides a unique opportunity for the study of child development. Because adopted children are raised in families in which they have no genetic relationship with their parents, and possibly none with their siblings, they provide a rare opportunity to study the relative importance of genetic, shared environmental, and nonshared environmental influences on the development of child characteristics and behaviors. Because children are adopted from a variety of circumstances and at a wide range of ages, studies of adopted children and their families provide researchers the opportunity to examine the short- and long-term influences of a wide range of environments on children's development. Because children are adopted into homes with a range of characteristics (e.g., multiracial homes), adoption provides the opportunity to study the range of influences of these homes on child development. Adoption research that focuses on each of these areas is reviewed in this article. We present conclusions about the value of adoption in psychological research and some reasons why many psychologists ignore the opportunities presented by studying adoptive families, as well as potential useful directions for future research with adopted children and their families.

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Segal, Nancy L. "Twins: The finest natural experiment." Personality and Individual Differences 49, no. 4 (September 2010): 317–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2009.11.014.

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Rosenzweig, Mark R., and Kenneth I. Wolpin. "Natural “Natural Experiments” in Economics." Journal of Economic Literature 38, no. 4 (December 1, 2000): 827–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.4.827.

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The recent literature exploiting natural events as “natural experiment” instruments is reviewed to assess to what extent it has advanced empirical knowledge. A weakness of the studies that adopt this approach is that the necessary set of behavioral, market, and technological assumptions made by the authors in justifying their interpretations of the estimates is often absent. The methodology and findings from twenty studies are summarized and simple economic models are used to elucidate the implicit assumptions made by the authors and to demonstrate the sensitivity of the interpretations of the findings to the relaxation of some of these assumptions.

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Moiseeva, A. V., and A. S. Titlova. "CONTROLLED PSYCHOLINGUISTIC EXPERIMENT VS. EXPERIMENT IN “NATURAL” INTERNET-COMMUNICATION." Vestnik Bashkirskogo universiteta 7, no. 2 (2018): 560. http://dx.doi.org/10.33184/bulletin-bsu-2018.2.52.

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Allen, Kyle D., Matthew D. Whitledge, and Drew B. Winters. "Community bank liquidity: Natural disasters as a natural experiment." Journal of Financial Stability 60 (June 2022): 101002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101002.

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Kocher, Matthew A., and Nuno P. Monteiro. "Lines of Demarcation: Causation, Design-Based Inference, and Historical Research." Perspectives on Politics 14, no. 4 (December 2016): 952–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1537592716002863.

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Qualitative historical knowledge is essential for validating natural experiments. Specifically, the validity of a natural experiment depends on the historical processes of treatment assignment and administration, including broader macro-historical dynamics. But if validating a natural experiment requires trust in the ability of qualitative evidence to establish the causal processes through which the data were generated, there is no good reason for natural experiments to be considered epistemically superior to historical research. To the contrary, the epistemic status of natural experiments is on a par with that of the historical research on which their validation depends. They are two modes of social-scientific explanation, each with its own pros and cons; neither is privileged. We illustrate this argument by re-examining an important recent contribution to the literature on violent conflict: Ferwerda and Miller’s 2014 natural experiment estimating the causal effect of the German decision to devolve authority to the Vichy French government on violent resistance during World War II.

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Keele, Luke, and Rocío Titiunik. "Natural Experiments Based on Geography." Political Science Research and Methods 4, no. 1 (April 8, 2015): 65–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2015.4.

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Political scientists often attempt to exploit natural experiments to estimate causal effects. We explore how variation in geography can be exploited as a natural experiment and review several assumptions under which geographic natural experiments yield valid causal estimates. In particular, we focus on cases where a geographic or administrative boundary splits units into treated and control areas. The different identification assumptions we consider suggest testable implications, which we use to establish their plausibility. Our methods are illustrated with an original study of whether ballot initiatives increase turnout in Wisconsin and Ohio, which illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of causal inferences based on geographic natural experiments.

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Wrieden, Wendy L., and Louis B. Levy. "‘Change4Life Smart Swaps’: quasi-experimental evaluation of a natural experiment." Public Health Nutrition 19, no. 13 (March 22, 2016): 2388–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1368980016000513.

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AbstractObjectiveTo evaluate the impact on food purchasing behaviour of the ‘Change4Life Smart Swaps’ campaign to encourage families to make small changes to lower-fat or lower-sugar versions of commonly eaten foods and drinks.DesignQuasi-experimental study comparing the proportion of swaps made by an intervention group (267 families who had signed up to the ‘Smart Swaps’ campaign promoted through various media, including television and radio advertising in early 2014) and a comparison group (135 families resident in Wales, signed up for ‘Change4Life’ materials, but not directly exposed to the ‘Smart Swaps’ campaign). During weeks 1, 2 and 3 of the campaign participants were asked to record their purchases of dairy products, carbonated drinks and breakfast cereals, using a mobile phone app questionnaire, when making a purchase within the category.SettingEngland and Wales.SubjectsFamilies registered with ‘Change4Life’.ResultsIn weeks 2 and 3 a significantly higher percentage of the intervention group had made ‘smart swaps’ than the comparison group. After week 3, 58 % of participants had swapped to a lower-fat dairy product compared with 26 % of the comparison group (P<0·001), 32 % of the intervention group had purchased a lower-sugar drink compared with 19 % of the comparison group (P=0·01), and 24 % had made a change to a lower-sugar cereal compared with 12 % of the comparison group (P=0·009).ConclusionsIn the short term a national campaign to change purchase habits towards healthier products may have some merit but the sustainability of change requires further investigation.

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Norman, J. Farley, Charles E. Crabtree, Anna Marie Clayton, and Hideko F. Norman. "The Perception of Distances and Spatial Relationships in Natural Outdoor Environments." Perception 34, no. 11 (November 2005): 1315–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/p5304.

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The ability of observers to perceive distances and spatial relationships in outdoor environments was investigated in two experiments. In experiment 1, the observers adjusted triangular configurations to appear equilateral, while in experiment 2, they adjusted the depth of triangles to match their base width. The results of both experiments revealed that there are large individual differences in how observers perceive distances in outdoor settings. The observers' judgments were greatly affected by the particular task they were asked to perform. The observers who had shown no evidence of perceptual distortions in experiment 1 (with binocular vision) demonstrated large perceptual distortions in experiment 2 when the task was changed to match distances in depth to frontal distances perpendicular to the observers' line of sight. Considered as a whole, the results indicate that there is no single relationship between physical and perceived space that is consistent with observers' judgments of distances in ordinary outdoor contexts.

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Axhausen, Kay W., and Claude Weis. "Predicting Response Rate: A Natural Experiment." Survey Practice 3, no. 2 (April 1, 2010): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.29115/sp-2010-0009.

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Scheelbeek, Pauline F. D. "A natural experiment of dietary change." Nature Food 2, no. 12 (December 2021): 916–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00399-2.

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Offe, Claus. "German reunification as a ‘natural experiment’." German Politics 1, no. 1 (April 1992): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09644009208404276.

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Repetto, Robert. "A natural experiment in fisheries management." Marine Policy 25, no. 4 (July 2001): 251–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0308-597x(01)00018-5.

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McGuinness, Teena M., and Janyce G. Dyer. "International Adoption as a Natural Experiment." Journal of Pediatric Nursing 21, no. 4 (August 2006): 276–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pedn.2006.02.001.

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Urbatsch, R. "Sibling Ideological Influence: A Natural Experiment." British Journal of Political Science 41, no. 4 (March 25, 2011): 693–712. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123411000093.

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Siblings are a potentially important source of political socialization. Influence is common, especially among younger siblings and those close in age, who tend to interact most frequently. This suggests that the positions of an individual's next-older sibling will hold particular sway. In policy questions with a gender gap, then, those whose immediately older sibling is a sister will be more likely to absorb the typically female preference; those born after a brother, the male preference. Evidence from the United States shows that this pattern holds for general left–right orientation as well as for the preferred balance between public and private sectors. Just as American women are more likely to lean left and to see government intervention positively, so are Americans whose next-older sibling is female.

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Rezaeian, M. "An Introduction to Natural Experiment Studies." Journal of Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences 19, no. 2 (May 1, 2020): 113–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.29252/jrums.19.2.113.

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Maderspacher, Florian. "Theodor Boveri and the natural experiment." Current Biology 18, no. 7 (April 2008): R279—R286. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2008.02.061.

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Baeren, Erren Jossie, and Humin Jusilin. "EXPLORATION NATURAL BATIK COLOR IN CONTEXT OF COLOR ETHNIC TRADITION IN SABAH." International Journal of Creative Industries 1, no. 2 (December 15, 2019): 01–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.35631/ijcrei.12001.

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The color tradition has come through several historical stories based on events that have occurred in ancient times and passed down orally. The natural color from natural resources has been intensified among ethnic groups in Sabah especially in handicrafts. Hence, various methods and mixes of natural resources are blended to produce a variety of colors according to the places and ethnicities that support them. The objective of this study is focused on the exploration of plants that have potential to produce natural color for batik in Sabah. In this research, experiments were performed systematically involving the initial process until the final process for obtaining color experiment. The main materials on this experiment are textiles, natural resources and fixing color. The experiment is conducted through three stages, starting with mordanting process, extracting natural resources and fixing color.The researchers then conducted experiments of natural color on the color effects produced on the textile . The fixing color that have been used such as tawas (Al2SO4), tunjung (FeSO4), kapur (CaCO3), sodium silicate, papaya leaves and lime.

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Nguyen, Trang Cong, Hoa Van Au, Giang Trung Tran, Phuong Thanh Nguyen, and Ut Ngoc Vu. "Phytoplankton community composition variation under natural and prolonged saline intrusion simulations." International Journal of Limnology 58 (2022): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/limn/2022001.

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This study assessed phytoplankton community composition variation under two discrete salinity intrusion rate experiments. Experiment 1 simulated salinization under short-term, natural tidally induced rates of salinity change typical of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam (0–30‰ in 6 h), while Experiment 2 simulated salinization under a longer, more gradual rate of salinity change (0–30‰ at 5‰ increase per week). Phytoplankton community composition was, overall, more abundant following prolonged salinity change (Experiment 2) than rapid, tidally-induced salinity change (Experiment 1). Under both experimental conditions phytoplankton species number and density varied with changes in salinity, indicating a strong effect of salinity regardless of its rate of change. At the end of the salinity acclimation, Cyanobacteria, Chlorophyta, Euglenophyta and Bacillariophyta were all most abundant at a salinity of 5‰ after a short-term tidally simulated change in salinity, but with a longer, more gradual change in salinity, the abundance of different groups varied with salinity; With a longer, more gradual change in salinity, Chlorophyta was most abundant at 5–10‰ salinity, while Cyanobacteria, Euglenophyta and Bacillariophyta were all most abundant at a salinity of 5‰. The species composition in treatments of less than 10‰ had high similarity with the freshwater environment while treatments of 30‰ (Experiment 1) and 25‰ (Experiment 2) had high similarity with the natural seawater environment. This study demonstrates the utility of mesocosm experiments for understanding phytoplankton community composition variation in natural aquatic ecosystems under rapid and prolonged saline intrusion rates and predicting associated impacts on food webs in natural water bodies and aquaculture systems.

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Ferreira, Tânia Cristina dos Santos, Lúcia Helena Sampaio da Silva, and Marlene Sofia Arcifa. "Competition of Cladocerans for Natural Seston from a Tropical Shallow Lake." Water 15, no. 19 (September 26, 2023): 3373. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15193373.

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The planktonic cladocerans Ceriodaphnia richardi, Daphnia gessneri, and Daphnia birgei inhabit the limnetic and littoral zones of Lake Monte Alegre, where the former species tends to be abundant. Laboratory experiments were carried out to investigate the competition for seston of the limnetic and littoral zones in cladocerans using life table data. In experiment 1, the species C. richardi and D. gessneri were fed seston from the limnetic zone (1–1.29 mg C L−1); in experiment 2, the species C. richardi and D. birgei were fed seston from the littoral zone. Despite the relatively high concentration of sestonic algae (0.96–1 mg C L−1), with predominance of nanoplankton, C. richardi outcompeted D. gessneri in the experiment with the limnetic seston. The species C. richardi and D. birgei benefited from the presence of each other in the experiment with littoral seston, where nanoplankton predominated, with increases in some parameters of the life table. D. birgei, however, showed better reproductive performance than C. richardi. A comparison between the results of the experiments suggests that the seston of the limnetic zone, in terms of quantity and quality, is better for C. richardi than the littoral seston.

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Gächter, Simon, Henrik Orzen, Elke Renner, and Chris Starmer. "Are experimental economists prone to framing effects? A natural field experiment." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 70, no. 3 (June 2009): 443–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2007.11.003.

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Xanthopoulos, F. P., and U. E. Kechagia. "Natural crossing in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 51, no. 8 (2000): 979. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/ar00026.

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The extent of natural crossing in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) was studied in 2 experiments conducted in Greece during 1998 and 1999, using glandless and red-leaf traits as genetic markers. The glandless line was planted in the middle, and the red-leaf both in the middle and the corners, of a commercial cotton field. In the first experiment where estimation of natural crossing was based upon gland status, the percentage ranged from 1.67% to 2.67% in adjacent rows, dropped to 1.42% in plants 2 m apart, and declined to almost zero after 10 m. In the second experiment, where the red-leaf marker gene was used, the mean of natural crossing was 3.85% in adjacent rows, fell to 2.79% in plants 2 m apart, and progressively diminished to 0.31% after 10 m. The mean natural outcrossing in different rows was almost the same in both experiments at the middle of the field and was actually double at the corners. Differences in the extent of natural crossing between the middle and the corners of the field continued to be significant up to 4 m distance. In all cases, distances greater than 10 m among cottons were sufficient to minimise out-crossing ranges.

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Arnold, Peter C. "The fallibility of memory: a natural experiment." Medical Journal of Australia 181, no. 11-12 (December 2004): 649. http://dx.doi.org/10.5694/j.1326-5377.2004.tb06506.x.

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Rosen, Julia. "Pandemic upheaval offers a huge natural experiment." Nature 596, no. 7870 (August 2, 2021): 149–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02092-7.

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Valašková, Veronika, and Jozef Melcer. "Bridge Natural Frequencies, Numerical Solution versus Experiment." Applied Sciences 12, no. 3 (February 8, 2022): 1765. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12031765.

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The article is dedicated to a numerical and experimental analysis of the basic natural frequencies of a bridge structure. It presents the results obtained using the finite element method and the frequency response functions applied in two variants, using the lumped mass model and the model with a continuously distributed mass, as well as the results obtained using the energy method. It describes a simple experiment to measure the response of a bridge to random excitations from rail traffic, and compares the values of selected natural frequencies obtained by numerical and experimental methods. It offers engineers alternative solutions for their applications in engineering practice. It tries to bring a complicated theory closer to engineering practice in the simplest possible way and, at the same time, arouses interest in its deeper study.

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Humphreys, David K., and Manuel P. Eisner. "Evaluating a natural experiment in alcohol policy." Criminology & Public Policy 9, no. 1 (February 2010): 41–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-9133.2010.00609.x.

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Jopling, Jeffrey K., Michael Baiocchi, and Arnold Milstein. "Using ICU Congestion as a Natural Experiment*." Critical Care Medicine 44, no. 10 (October 2016): 1936–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/ccm.0000000000001932.

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Bianchi, Marco, Björn R. Gudmundsson, and Gylfi Zoega. "Iceland's Natural Experiment in Supply-Side Economics." American Economic Review 91, no. 5 (December 1, 2001): 1564–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1564.

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Wang, Zhongyi, and Puzhen Gao. "NATURAL CIRCULATION EXPERIMENT UNDER POWER TRANSIENT CONDITIONS." Proceedings of the International Conference on Nuclear Engineering (ICONE) 2019.27 (2019): 1786. http://dx.doi.org/10.1299/jsmeicone.2019.27.1786.

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Harrison, R. Giles, and Edward Hanna. "The solar eclipse: a natural meteorological experiment." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 374, no. 2077 (September 28, 2016): 20150225. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2015.0225.

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A solar eclipse provides a well-characterized reduction in solar radiation, of calculable amount and duration. This captivating natural astronomical phenomenon is ideally suited to science outreach activities, but the predictability of the change in solar radiation also provides unusual conditions for assessing the atmospheric response to a known stimulus. Modern automatic observing networks used for weather forecasting and atmospheric research have dense spatial coverage, so the quantitative meteorological responses to an eclipse can now be evaluated with excellent space and time resolution. Numerical models representing the atmosphere at high spatial resolution can also be used to predict eclipse-related changes and interpret the observations. Combining the models with measurements yields the elements of a controlled atmospheric experiment on a regional scale (10–1000 km), which is almost impossible to achieve by other means. This modern approach to ‘eclipse meteorology’ as identified here can ultimately improve weather prediction models and be used to plan for transient reductions in renewable electricity generation. During the 20 March 2015 eclipse, UK electrical energy demand increased by about 3 GWh (11 TJ) or about 4%, alongside reductions in the wind and photovoltaic electrical energy generation of 1.5 GWh (5.5 TJ). This article is part of the themed issue ‘Atmospheric effects of solar eclipses stimulated by the 2015 UK eclipse’.

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Graves, Scott E., Robert M. Howard, and Pamela C. Corley. "Judicial Independence: Evidence from a Natural Experiment." Law & Policy 36, no. 1 (November 18, 2013): 68–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/lapo.12014.

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Broockman, David E., and Evan J. Soltas. "A natural experiment on discrimination in elections." Journal of Public Economics 188 (August 2020): 104201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104201.

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Gripsrud, Geir, and Øyvind Horverak. "Determinants of retail patronage. A ‘natural’ experiment." International Journal of Research in Marketing 3, no. 4 (January 1986): 263–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0167-8116(86)90006-6.

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Ponattu, Dominic. "Duverger's psychological effect: A natural experiment approach." Electoral Studies 54 (August 2018): 139–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.05.003.

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Lothian, James R. "Why Money Matters: A Fourth Natural Experiment." Open Economies Review 22, no. 2 (September 1, 2010): 179–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11079-010-9185-x.

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Jennions, Michael D. "Staibility in coral communities: a natural experiment." Trends in Ecology & Evolution 12, no. 1 (January 1997): 3–4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0169-5347(96)30059-1.

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RICKMAN, NEIL, and ROBERT WITT. "Favouritism and Financial Incentives: A Natural Experiment." Economica 75, no. 298 (May 2008): 296–309. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2007.00605.x.

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Wilkinson, Richard G. "Income distribution and mortality: a 'natural' experiment." Sociology of Health and Illness 12, no. 4 (December 1990): 391–412. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9566.ep11340405.

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Natividad, Gabriel, and Evan Rawley. "Firm Focus and Performance: A Natural Experiment." Academy of Management Proceedings 2012, no. 1 (July 2012): 12063. http://dx.doi.org/10.5465/ambpp.2012.12063abstract.

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Beauchamp, Guy. "Visual obstruction and vigilance: a natural experiment." Journal of Avian Biology 46, no. 5 (April 8, 2015): 476–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jav.00612.

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Morrison, Frederick J., Lisa Smith, and Maureen Dow-Ehrensberger. "Education and cognitive development: A natural experiment." Developmental Psychology 31, no. 5 (1995): 789–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0012-1649.31.5.789.

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Levitin, Lev B., and Zeev Reingold. "Entropy of natural languages: Theory and experiment." Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 4, no. 5 (May 1994): 709–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0960-0779(94)90079-5.

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Smith, Steven, and Ron Singleton. "Gold and tax capitalization: A natural experiment." Advances in Accounting 62 (September 2023): 100655. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.adiac.2023.100655.

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Koshovets, O., and T. Varkhotov. "Epistemological Status of Models and Thought Experiments in Economics." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 2 (February 20, 2015): 123–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2015-2-123-140.

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The paper considers the analogy of theoretical modeling and thought experiment in economics. The authors provide historical and epistemological analysis of thought experiments and their relations to the material experiments in natural science. They conclude that thought experiments as instruments are used both in physics and in economics, but in radically different ways. In the natural science, a thought experiment is tightly connected to the material experimentation, while in economics it is used in isolation. Material experiments serve as a means to demonstrate the reality, while thought experiments cannot be a full-fledged instrument of studying the reality. Rather, they constitute the instrument of structuring the field of inquiry.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Natural experiment'

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