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Journal articles on the topic 'Multistate survival models'

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Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 28 January 2023

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1

Metzger, Shawna K., and Benjamin T. Jones. "Surviving Phases: Introducing Multistate Survival Models." Political Analysis 24, no. 4 (2016): 457–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpw025.

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Many political processes consist of a series of theoretically meaningful transitions across discrete phases that occur through time. Yet political scientists are often theoretically interested in studying not just individual transitions between phases, but also the duration that subjects spend within phases, as well as the effect of covariates on subjects’ trajectories through the process's multiple phases. We introduce the multistate survival model to political scientists, which is capable of modeling precisely this type of situation. The model is appealing because of its ability to accommodate multiple forms of causal complexity that unfold over time. In particular, we highlight three attractive features of multistate models: transition-specific baseline hazards, transition-specific covariate effects, and the ability to estimate transition probabilities. We provide two applications to illustrate these features.
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2

Butler, Ronald W., and Douglas A. Bronson. "Multistate Survival Models as Transient Electrical Networks." Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 41, no. 1 (April 28, 2013): 167–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/sjos.12014.

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3

Ataharul Islam, M., and Karan P. Singh. "Multistate survival models for partially censored data." Environmetrics 3, no. 2 (1992): 223–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/env.3170030207.

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4

Altarabsheh, Ahmad, Rawan Altarabsheh, Sara Altarabsheh, and Ibrahim Asi. "Prediction of Pavement Performance Using Multistate Survival Models." Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part B: Pavements 147, no. 1 (March 2021): 04020082. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/jpeodx.0000241.

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5

Metzger, Shawna K., and Benjamin T. Jones. "Mstatecox: A Package for Simulating Transition Probabilities from Semiparametric Multistate Survival Models." Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata 18, no. 3 (September 2018): 533–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1536867x1801800304.

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Multistate duration models are a valuable tool used in multiple fields to examine how subjects move through a series of discrete phases and stages. The models themselves may be fit using common statistical software, but their broader adoption has been limited because of a lack of software to substantively interpret their results. Transition probabilities are the common postestimation quantity for interpreting multistate duration model results. De Wreede, Fiocco, and Putter's (2011, Journal of Statistical Software 38(7): 1–30) mstate package provides R with the functionality to estimate these quantities from semiparametric multistate models, yet no Stata equivalent exists for semiparametric models. We introduce a new set of Stata commands to meet this need. Our mstatecox suite calculates transition probabilities from semiparametric multistate duration models with simulation. It can accommodate any configuration of stages and also has the ability to accommodate time-interacted covariates. We demonstrate our package's functionality using de Wreede, Fiocco, and Putter‘s European Registry of Blood and Marrow Transplantation example dataset.
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WHITE, GARY C., WILLIAM L. KENDALL, and RICHARD J. BARKER. "Multistate Survival Models and Their Extensions in Program MARK." Journal of Wildlife Management 70, no. 6 (December 2006): 1521–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.2193/0022-541x(2006)70[1521:msmate]2.0.co;2.

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7

Hajihosseini, Morteza, Toba Kazemi, and Javad Faradmal. "Multistate Models for Survival Analysis of Cardiovascular Disease Process." Revista Española de Cardiología (English Edition) 69, no. 7 (July 2016): 714–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rec.2016.04.009.

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8

Hudson, Harold M., Serigne N. Lô, R. John Simes, Andrew M. Tonkin, and Stephane Heritier. "Semiparametric methods for multistate survival models in randomised trials." Statistics in Medicine 33, no. 10 (December 13, 2013): 1621–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.6060.

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9

Gillaizeau, Florence, Etienne Dantan, Magali Giral, and Yohann Foucher. "A multistate additive relative survival semi-Markov model." Statistical Methods in Medical Research 26, no. 4 (June 7, 2015): 1700–1711. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0962280215586456.

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Medical researchers are often interested to investigate the relationship between explicative variables and times-to-events such as disease progression or death. Such multiple times-to-events can be studied using multistate models. For chronic diseases, it may be relevant to consider semi-Markov multistate models because the transition intensities between two clinical states more likely depend on the time already spent in the current state than on the chronological time. When the cause of death for a patient is unavailable or not totally attributable to the disease, it is not possible to specifically study the associations with the excess mortality related to the disease. Relative survival analysis allows an estimate of the net survival in the hypothetical situation where the disease would be the only possible cause of death. In this paper, we propose a semi-Markov additive relative survival (SMRS) model that combines the multistate and the relative survival approaches. The usefulness of the SMRS model is illustrated by two applications with data from a French cohort of kidney transplant recipients. Using simulated data, we also highlight the effectiveness of the SMRS model: the results tend to those obtained if the different causes of death are known.
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10

Letcher, Benjamin H., and Gregg E. Horton. "Seasonal variation in size-dependent survival of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): performance of multistate capture–mark–recapture models." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 65, no. 8 (August 2008): 1649–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f08-083.

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We estimated the magnitude and shape of size-dependent survival (SDS) across multiple sampling intervals for two cohorts of stream-dwelling Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) juveniles using multistate capture–mark–recapture (CMR) models. Simulations designed to test the effectiveness of multistate models for detecting SDS in our system indicated that error in SDS estimates was low and that both time-invariant and time-varying SDS could be detected with sample sizes of >250, average survival of >0.6, and average probability of capture of >0.6, except for cases of very strong SDS. In the field (N ∼750, survival 0.6–0.8 among sampling intervals, probability of capture 0.6–0.8 among sampling occasions), about one-third of the sampling intervals showed evidence of SDS, with poorer survival of larger fish during the age-2+ autumn and quadratic survival (opposite direction between cohorts) during age-1+ spring. The varying magnitude and shape of SDS among sampling intervals suggest a potential mechanism for the maintenance of the very wide observed size distributions. Estimating SDS using multistate CMR models appears complementary to established approaches, can provide estimates with low error, and can be used to detect intermittent SDS.
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11

Wigfield, P., A. Verhoek, D. M. Ouwens, and B. Heeg. "MS2 Methods to Optimise Survival Predictions Using Multistate Models in Oncology." Value in Health 23 (December 2020): S405. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2020.08.047.

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12

Crowther, Michael J. "Simulating time-to-event data from parametric distributions, custom distributions, competing-risks models, and general multistate models." Stata Journal: Promoting communications on statistics and Stata 22, no. 1 (March 2022): 3–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1536867x221083853.

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In this article, I describe some substantial extensions to the survsim command for simulating survival data. survsim can now simulate survival data from a parametric distribution, a custom or user-defined distribution, a fitted merlin model, a specified cause-specific hazards competing-risks model, or a specified general multistate model (with multiple timescales). Left-truncation (delayed entry) is now also available for all settings. I illustrate the survsim command with some examples, demonstrating the huge flexibility that can be used to better evaluate statistical methods.
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13

Breininger, David R., James D. Nichols, Geoffrey M. Carter, and Donna M. Oddy. "Habitat-specific breeder survival of Florida Scrub-Jays: inferences from multistate models." Ecology 90, no. 11 (November 2009): 3180–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/08-1123.1.

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14

Ya, Fang, and Hein Putter. "Probability prediction in multistate survival models for patients with chronic myeloid leukaemia." Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Medical Sciences] 25, no. 1 (February 2005): 100–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02831400.

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15

Edelmann, Dominic, Maral Saadati, Hein Putter, and Jelle Goeman. "A global test for competing risks survival analysis." Statistical Methods in Medical Research 29, no. 12 (July 6, 2020): 3666–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0962280220938402.

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Standard tests for the Cox model, such as the likelihood ratio test or the Wald test, do not perform well in situations, where the number of covariates is substantially higher than the number of observed events. This issue is perpetuated in competing risks settings, where the number of observed occurrences for each event type is usually rather small. Yet, appropriate testing methodology for competing risks survival analysis with few events per variable is missing. In this article, we show how to extend the global test for survival by Goeman et al. to competing risks and multistate models[Per journal style, abstracts should not have reference citations. Therefore, can you kindly delete this reference citation.]. Conducting detailed simulation studies, we show that both for type I error control and for power, the novel test outperforms the likelihood ratio test and the Wald test based on the cause-specific hazards model in settings where the number of events is small compared to the number of covariates. The benefit of the global tests for competing risks survival analysis and multistate models is further demonstrated in real data examples of cancer patients from the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.
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16

Devillard, Sébastien, and Yves Bray. "Assessing the effect on survival of natal dispersal using multistate capture–recapture models." Ecology 90, no. 10 (October 2009): 2902–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/08-0559.1.

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17

Andersen, Per Kragh. "Multistate models in survival analysis: A study of nephropathy and mortality in diabetes." Statistics in Medicine 7, no. 6 (June 1988): 661–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780070605.

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18

Pieterse, Q. D., G. G. Kenter, P. H. C. Eilers, and J. B. M. Z. Trimbos. "An individual prediction of the future (disease-free) survival of patients with a history of early-stage cervical cancer, multistate model." International Journal of Gynecologic Cancer 18, no. 3 (May 2008): 432–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1525-1438.2007.01042.x.

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To evaluate the possibility to give a prediction of the future (disease-free) survival, given the fact that a patient with a history of early-stage cervical cancer has been disease free for a specific period after treatment. Between January 1984 and April 2005, 615 patients with cervical cancer stages I–IIA underwent radical hysterectomy with or without adjuvant radiotherapy. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to detect statistical significance and multistate risk models to estimate the influence of covariates and to generate predicted survival curves by simulation. Simulations were done for patients with positive lymph nodes (n= 123), patients with negative lymph nodes (n= 492), and 4 hypothetical patients. The 5-year cancer-specific survival and disease-free survival of the entire group was 84% and 76%, respectively. The probability of death of the two lymph node groups and the four hypothetical patients was demonstrated in predicted cumulative probability plots. It is possible with multistate risk models to give a detailed prediction of the future (disease-free) survival, given the fact that a patient has been disease free for a specific period after treatment. This possibility is an important step forward to improve the quality of cancer care.
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19

Islam, M. Ataharul. "Multistate Survival Models for Transitions and Reverse Transitions: An Application to Contraceptive Use Data." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society) 157, no. 3 (1994): 441. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2983530.

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20

Bradshaw, Corey J. A., Richard J. Barker, Robert G. Harcourt, and Lloyd S. Davis. "ESTIMATING SURVIVAL AND CAPTURE PROBABILITY OF FUR SEAL PUPS USING MULTISTATE MARK–RECAPTURE MODELS." Journal of Mammalogy 84, no. 1 (February 2003): 65–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1644/1545-1542(2003)084<0065:esacpo>2.0.co;2.

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21

Frank, Béatrice M., Olivier Gimenez, and Philippe V. Baret. "Assessing brown trout (Salmo trutta) spawning movements with multistate capture–recapture models: a case study in a fully controlled Belgian brook." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 69, no. 6 (June 2012): 1091–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f2012-041.

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A multistate capture–recapture model was developed to estimate movements of brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) between a main stem and its headwater tributary and their survival and recapture probabilities in each stream. As all individuals entering or leaving the tributary were captured by trapping, the studied ecological system was fully controlled. The performance of multistate models combining two sources of data (trapping and electrofishing) available for 6 years was first evaluated. Realistic estimates were obtained to infer the average spawning behaviour of trout: (i) 58% returned to their original site after spawning, (ii) 9% returned to their natal site for reproduction, (iii) 55% of the ascending individuals performed natal homing. Because less informative systems are pervading, we eventually assessed the sensitivity of multistate models to the level of trapping data integration. A lack of such data led to an underestimation of movement probabilities, and we found that this effect could be compensated by electrofishing samplings.
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22

Henle, Klaus, and Bernd Gruber. "Performance of multistate mark–recapture models for temporary emigration in the presence of survival costs." Methods in Ecology and Evolution 9, no. 3 (October 9, 2017): 657–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12891.

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23

Converse, Sarah J., William L. Kendall, Paul F. Doherty, and Peter G. Ryan. "Multistate Models for Estimation of Survival and Reproduction in the Grey-headed Albatross (Thalassarche chrysostoma)." Auk 126, no. 1 (January 2009): 77–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/auk.2009.07189.

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24

Winiarski, Kristopher J., and Kevin McGarigal. "Effects of Photo and Genotype-Based Misidentification Error on Estimates of Survival, Detection and State Transition using Multistate Survival Models." PLOS ONE 11, no. 1 (January 11, 2016): e0145640. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0145640.

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25

Amiri, Fatemeh, Ghodrat Roshanaei, Meysam Olfati Far, Rasoul Najafi, and Jalal Poorolajal. "Survival Analysis of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Iranian Patients: A Multistate Model." Journal of Arak University Medical Sciences 24, no. 2 (June 1, 2021): 180–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.32598/jams.24.2.5530.2.

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Background and Aim: Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) caused by Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), is a chronic and potentially life-threatening disease. Numerous factors affect its development and progression. Therefore, the present study attempted to identify characteristics impacting the prognosis and progression of AIDS using multistate models. Methods & Materials: The present retrospective study consisted of 2185 patients affected with HIV referring to Behavioral Disease Counseling Centers in Tehran City, Iran, from 2004 to 2013. We considered multiple states of AIDS, tuberculosis, and tuberculosis/AIDS in the natural history of the disease (from the onset of HIV disease until death occurred). Then, we applied the multistate models, to examine the effect of contextual demographic and clinical variables on survival time; subsequently, the transition probabilities of HIV. Ethical Considerations: This study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of Hamadan University of Medical Sciences (Code: IR.UMSHA.REC.1396.117). Results: HIV-Related deaths in individuals with an incarnation history were 2.40 times higher than in those without the prison history. Death risk was also 1.70 and 1.80 times higher in those aged 25-44 and 44 years, respectively, compared to the individuals aged less than 25 years. An inverse relationship was also found between CD4 levels and the risk of death in our participants. Conclusion: Antiretroviral therapy, CD4 count, age, and history of imprisonment were the main factors in the progression of the disease and subsequent death in HIV patients. Thus, preventing the further spread of the disease to the community and controlling the disease in the patients requires targeted educational and therapeutic interventions; accordingly, the community will be familiarized with transmission routes and the preventing principle of disease. Furthermore, we can encourage patients to visit the healthcare centers early.
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Powell, Larkin A. "A Multistate Capture-Recapture Model Using A Posteriori Classification to Enhance Estimation of Movement Rates." Condor 106, no. 4 (November 1, 2004): 761–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/condor/106.4.761.

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AbstractBiologists commonly use multistate capture-recapture models to estimate movement and survival rates of animals. Recent improvements to genetic and stable-isotope techniques have created the potential for making a posteriori determinations of an animal's location. Here, I present a new multistate model structure that incorporates captured animals' backdated locations. To provide data for this model, I developed a computer simulation in which birds moved between two geographic strata during three time periods. Birds were captured and assigned mortality, and multistate capture histories were recorded. I enhanced capture histories for birds using data from simulated stable-isotope analyses. I then used the modified multistate model to estimate survival, movement, and recapture probabilities. I evaluated the ability of stable-isotope data to more precisely estimate movement over a range of recapture and movement rates. In each of nine simulations, information from stable isotopes improved the precision of the movement estimate; estimates and precision of survival and recapture rates did not change. As real stable-isotope data sets become available, this estimation model may be useful to biologists interested in improving precision of movement rates among geographic strata.Un Modelo Multi-Estado de Captura-Recaptura Usando Clasificación A Posteriori para Potenciar la Estimación de Tasas de MovimientoResumen. Los biólogos usan generalmente modelos multi-estado de captura-recaptura para estimar las tasas de movimiento y supervivencia de los animales. Las mejoras recientes de las técnicas genéticas y de isótopos estables han creado el potencial de hacer determinaciones a posteriori de la localización de un animal. Aquí presento la estructura de un nuevo modelo multi-estado que incorpora las localidades pasadas de animales capturados. Para contar con datos para este modelo, desarrollé una simulación en computadora en la cual las aves se movieron entre dos estratos geográficos durante tres períodos de tiempo. Las aves fueron capturadas y se les asignó un valor de mortalidad, y se registraron las historias de capturas multi-estado. Potencié el uso de las historias de captura de las aves empleando datos simulados de análisis de isótopos estables. Luego usé el modelo multi-estado modificado para estimar las probabilidades de supervivencia, de movimiento y de recaptura. Evalué la habilidad de los datos de isótopos estables para estimar movimiento de modo más preciso en un rango de tasas de recaptura y movimiento. En cada una de las nueve simulaciones, la información de los isótopos estables mejoró la precisión de la estimación de movimiento; las estimaciones y la precisión de las tasas de supervivencia y recaptura no variaron. A medida que estén disponibles datos reales de isótopos estables, este modelo de estimación puede ser útil para los biólogos interesados en mejorar la precisión de las tasas de movimiento entre estratos geográficos.
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27

Carmona-Bayonas, Alberto, Paula Jimenez-Fonseca, Marcelo Garrido, Ana Custodio, Raquel Hernandez, Alejandra Lacalle, Juana María Cano, et al. "Multistate Models: Accurate and Dynamic Methods to Improve Predictions of Thrombotic Risk in Patients with Cancer." Thrombosis and Haemostasis 119, no. 11 (August 28, 2019): 1849–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-0039-1694012.

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AbstractResearch into cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT) entails managing dynamic data that pose an analytical challenge. Thus, methods that assume proportional hazards to investigate prognosis entail a risk of misinterpreting or overlooking key traits or time-varying effects. We examined the AGAMENON registry, which collects data from 2,129 patients with advanced gastric cancer. An accelerated failure time (AFT) multistate model and flexible competing risks regression were used to scrutinize the time-varying effect of CAT, as well as to estimate how covariates dynamically predict cumulative incidence. The AFT model revealed that thrombosis shortened progression-free survival and overall survival with adjusted time ratios of 0.72 and 0.56, respectively. Nevertheless, its prognostic effect was nonproportional and disappeared over time if the subject managed to survive long enough. CAT that occurred later had a more pronounced prognostic effect. In the flexible competing risks model, multiple covariates were seen to have significant time-varying effects on the cumulative incidence of CAT (Khorana score, secondary thromboprophylaxis, high tumor burden, and cisplatin-containing regimen), whereas other predictors exerted a constant effect (signet ring cells and primary thromboprophylaxis). The model that assumes proportional hazards was incapable of capturing the effect of these covariates and predicted the cumulative incidence in a biased way. This study evinces that flexible and multistate models are a useful and innovative method to describe the dynamic effect of variables associated with CAT and should be more widely used.
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VanderWerf, Eric A., and Lindsay C. Young. "Estimating survival and life-stage transitions in the Laysan Albatross (Phoebastria immutabilis) using multistate mark–recapture models." Auk 128, no. 4 (October 2011): 726–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/auk.2011.10285.

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29

Cowen, Laura, Stephen John Walsh, Carl James Schwarz, Noel Cadigan, and Joanne Morgan. "Estimating exploitation rates of migrating yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) using multistate mark–recapture methods incorporating tag loss and variable reporting rates." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 66, no. 8 (August 2009): 1245–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/f09-082.

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Multistate mark–recapture models can be used to model migration through stratification of the study area into states (location). However, the incorporation of both tag loss and reporting rates is new to the multistate paradigm. We develop a migration model for fish that incorporates tag loss and reporting rates but has as its primary purpose the modelling of exploitation and natural mortality rates. This model is applied to a 2000–2004 yellowtail flounder ( Limanda ferruginea ) tagging study on the Grand Bank of Newfoundland, Canada. We found that exploitation rates varied over both location and years, ranging from 0.000 to 0.047. Migration into the centre of the Grand Bank (state 2) was three times higher than migration out. The estimate of the instantaneous annual natural mortality rate was 0.256, which is equivalent to an annual survival rate of 0.880. We describe how these mortality estimates will be quite valuable in specifying an assessment model for this stock.
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Weegman, Mitch D., Scott Wilson, Ray T. Alisauskas, and Dana K. Kellett. "Assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models." PeerJ 8 (June 23, 2020): e9382. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9382.

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Joint encounter (JE) models estimate demographic rates using live recapture and dead recovery data. The extent to which limited recapture or recovery data can hinder estimation in JE models is not completely understood. Yet limited data are common in ecological research. We designed a series of simulations using Bayesian multistate JE models that spanned a large range of potential recapture probabilities (0.01–0.90) and two reported mortality probabilities (0.10, 0.19). We calculated bias by comparing estimates against known probabilities of survival, fidelity and reported mortality. We explored whether sparse data (i.e., recapture probabilities <0.02) compromised inference about survival by comparing estimates from dead recovery (DR) and JE models using an 18-year data set from a migratory bird, the lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens). Our simulations showed that bias in probabilities of survival, fidelity and reported mortality was relatively low across a large range of recapture probabilities, except when recapture and reported mortality probabilities were both lowest. While bias in fidelity probability was similar across all recapture probabilities, the root mean square error declined substantially with increased recapture probabilities for reported mortality probabilities of 0.10 or 0.19, as expected. In our case study, annual survival probabilities for adult female snow geese were similar whether estimated with JE or DR models, but more precise from JE models than those from DR models. Thus, our simulated and empirical data suggest acceptably minimal bias in survival, fidelity or reported mortality probabilities estimated from JE models. Even a small amount of recapture information provided adequate structure for JE models, except when reported mortality probabilities were <0.10. Thus, practitioners with limited recapture data should not be discouraged from use of JE models. We recommend that ecologists incorporate other data types as frequently as analytically possible, since precision of focal parameters is improved, and additional parameters of interest can be estimated.
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Klein, John P., Niels Keiding, and Edward A. Copelan. "Plotting summary predictions in multistate survival models: Probabilities of relapse and death in remission for bone marrow transplantation patients." Statistics in Medicine 12, no. 24 (December 30, 1993): 2315–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780122408.

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32

Gottschau, Adam, and Birthe Hogh. "Interval censored survival data and multistate compartmental models in the analysis of first appearance ofPlasmodium falciparum parasites in infants." Statistics in Medicine 14, no. 24 (December 30, 1995): 2727–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780142411.

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33

Mellado, Breno, Lucas de Oliveira Carneiro, Marcelo Rodrigues Nogueira, and Leandro Rabello Monteiro. "The impacts of marking on bats: mark-recapture models for assessing injury rates and tag loss." Journal of Mammalogy 103, no. 1 (December 15, 2021): 100–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyab153.

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Abstract The individual identification of animals is essential for long-term population ecology studies. Injuries and tag loss can negatively impact animal welfare and parameter estimates. We used time-to-failure curves and multistate mark-recapture models to estimate injury rates, body condition decline, tag loss and survival probabilities associated with two tags commonly used in bats: metallic arm bands and steel ball chain collars. We monitored two colonies of Carollia perspicillata at União Biological Reserve, southeastern Brazil, from 2013 to 2019. Every other month, we marked individuals with arm bands, collars or both. Collars did not cause noticeable injuries, but were lost at a higher rate than arm bands (1.5–2.5 times). The arm band-related injury probability between captures was ~ 0.2, and after 17 months half the marked animals developed injuries. Animals marked as juveniles were less likely to get injured than adults. Injuries were associated with a lower body condition in females. Body condition was positively associated with apparent survival; however, a direct effect of arm band injuries on survival estimates was not observed. The tag loss rates caused a negative bias in survival estimates. Mark-recapture studies should evaluate the efficacy of the marking technique, accounting for potential animal injury, tag loss, and bias in parameter estimation. Marking individuals should be limited to studies that monitor species with high recapture probability, using the least harmful tags possible, and balancing the burden to the animals with the potential to generate knowledge.
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34

Munguía-Steyer, R., and R. Macías-Ordóñez. "Is it risky to be a father? Survival assessment depending on sex and parental status in the water bug Abedus breviceps using multistate modelling." Canadian Journal of Zoology 85, no. 1 (January 2007): 49–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/z06-196.

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We carried out a capture–recapture multistate modelling approach to estimate survival and recapture probabilities and transition rates between parental and nonparental status in an adult wild population of the water bug Abedus breviceps Stål, 1862 (Hemiptera: Belostomatidae). The global model included the following parameters: sex, male parental status (brooding or not), and transience (individual’s permanent movement from the site after first capture). Models were selected by means of the information-theory paradigm. The best supported model shows no difference in survival between males and females regardless of male parental status. Thus, the frequently assumed cost of parental care in terms of survival is not supported by our data. Furthermore, during the study, male expected adult life span in the wild was lower than the time needed to brood a batch of eggs from oviposition to hatching. We discuss potential consequences of such a short male expected adult life span in terms of parental behaviour decision rules related to fitness maximization.
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Crowther, Michael J., and Paul C. Lambert. "Parametric multistate survival models: Flexible modelling allowing transition-specific distributions with application to estimating clinically useful measures of effect differences." Statistics in Medicine 36, no. 29 (September 5, 2017): 4719–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.7448.

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36

Suzuki, Hiroyuki, Eli N. Perencevich, Rajeshwari Nair, Daniel J. Livorsi, and Michihiko Goto. "Excess Length of Acute Inpatient Stay Attributable to Acquisition of Hospital-Onset Gram-Negative Bloodstream Infection with and without Antibiotic Resistance: A Multistate Model Analysis." Antibiotics 9, no. 2 (February 23, 2020): 96. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/antibiotics9020096.

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Excess length of stay (LOS) is an important outcome when assessing the burden of nosocomial infection, but it can be subject to survival bias. We aimed to estimate the change in LOS attributable to hospital-onset (HO) Escherichia coli/Klebsiella spp. bacteremia using multistate models to circumvent survival bias. We analyzed a cohort of all patients with HO E. coli/Klebsiella spp. bacteremia and matched uninfected control patients within the U.S. Veterans Health Administration System in 2003–2013. A multistate model was used to estimate the change in LOS as an effect of the intermediate state (HO-bacteremia). We stratified analyses by susceptibilities to fluoroquinolones (fluoroquinolone susceptible (FQ-S)/fluoroquinolone resistant (FQ-R)) and extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESC susceptible (ESC-S)/ESC resistant (ESC-R)). Among the 5964 patients with HO bacteremia analyzed, 957 (16.9%) and 1638 (28.9%) patients had organisms resistant to FQ and ESC, respectively. Any HO E.coli/Klebsiella bacteremia was associated with excess LOS, and both FQ-R and ESC-R were associated with a longer LOS than susceptible strains, but the additional burdens attributable to resistance were small compared to HO bacteremia itself (FQ-S: 12.13 days vs. FQ-R: 12.94 days, difference: 0.81 days (95% CI: 0.56–1.05), p < 0.001 and ESC-S: 11.57 days vs. ESC-R: 16.56 days, difference: 4.99 days (95% CI: 4.75–5.24), p < 0.001). Accurate measurements of excess attributable LOS associated with resistance can help support the business case for infection control interventions.
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Kelly, Karen, Juliane Manitz, Manish R. Patel, Sandra P. D’Angelo, Andrea B. Apolo, Arun Rajan, Vijay Kasturi, et al. "Efficacy and immune-related adverse event associations in avelumab-treated patients." Journal for ImmunoTherapy of Cancer 8, no. 2 (November 2020): e001427. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jitc-2020-001427.

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BackgroundAdverse events (AEs) of special interest that arise during treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors, including immune-related AEs (irAEs), have been reported to be associated with improved clinical outcomes. We analyzed patients treated with avelumab from the JAVELIN Solid Tumor and Merkel 200 trials, examining the association between AEs and efficacy while adjusting for confounding factors such as treatment duration and event order.MethodsWe analyzed efficacy and safety data from 1783 patients treated with the programmed death ligand 1 inhibitor avelumab who were enrolled in expansion cohorts of the JAVELIN Solid Tumor and Merkel 200 trials. To analyze the association between irAEs and efficacy with regard to survival, we used a time-dependent Cox model with time-varying indicators for irAEs, as well as multistate models that accounted for competing risks and time inhomogeneity.Results295 patients (16.5%) experienced irAEs and 454 patients (25.5%) experienced infusion-related reactions. There was a reduced risk of death in patients who experienced irAEs compared with those who did not (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.85) using the time-dependent Cox model. The multistate model did not suggest that the occurrence of irAEs could predict response; however, it predicted a higher chance of irAEs occurring after a response. No association was observed between response and infusion-related reactions.ConclusionsPatients who experience irAEs showed improved survival. Although irAEs are not predictors for response to immune checkpoint inhibitors, increased vigilance for irAEs is needed after treatment with avelumab.Trial registration numbersNCT01772004 and NCT02155647.
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Schaub, Michael, and Johann von Hirschheydt. "Effect of current reproduction on apparent survival, breeding dispersal, and future reproduction in barn swallows assessed by multistate capture-recapture models." Journal of Animal Ecology 78, no. 3 (May 2009): 625–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01508.x.

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39

Johns, Michael E., Pete Warzybok, Russell W. Bradley, Jaime Jahncke, Mark Lindberg, and Greg A. Breed. "Increased reproductive investment associated with greater survival and longevity in Cassin's auklets." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 285, no. 1885 (August 29, 2018): 20181464. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.1464.

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Individuals increase lifetime reproductive output through a trade-off between investment in future survival and immediate reproductive success. This pattern may be obscured in certain higher quality individuals that possess greater reproductive potential. The Cassin's auklet ( Ptychoramphus aleuticus ) is a long-lived species where some individuals exhibit greater reproductive ability through a behaviour called double brooding. Here, we analyse 32 years of breeding histories from marked known-age auklets to test whether double brooding increases lifetime fitness despite the increased mortality and reduced lifespan higher reproductive effort would be expected to incur. Multistate mark–recapture modelling revealed that double brooding was strongly positively associated with higher annual survival and longevity. The mean (95% confidence interval) apparent survival was 0.69 (0.21, 0.91) for individuals that executed a single brood and 0.96 (0.84, 0.99) for those that double-brooded. Generalized linear mixed models indicated individuals that attempted multiple double broods over their lifetime were able to produce on average seven times as many chicks and live nearly 6 years longer than birds that never attempted a double brood. We found that high-quality individuals exhibited both increased reproductive effort and longevity, where heterogeneity in individual quality masked expected life-history trade-offs.
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Marescot, Lucile, Tavis D. Forrester, David S. Casady, and Heiko U. Wittmer. "Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer." Population Ecology 57, no. 1 (October 17, 2014): 185–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10144-014-0456-z.

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Mjørud, Marit, Geir Selbæk, Espen Bjertness, Trine Holt Edwin, Knut Engedal, Anne-Brita Knapskog, and Bjørn Heine Strand. "Time from dementia diagnosis to nursing-home admission and death among persons with dementia: A multistate survival analysis." PLOS ONE 15, no. 12 (December 4, 2020): e0243513. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243513.

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Objectives To estimate transition times from dementia diagnosis to nursing-home (NH) admission or death and to examine whether sex, education, marital status, level of cognitive impairment and dementia aetiology are associated with transition times. Design Markov multistate survival analysis and flexible parametric models. Setting Participants were recruited from the Norwegian Registry of Persons Assessed for Cognitive Symptoms (NorCog) in specialist healthcare between 2008 and 2017 and followed until August 2019, a maximum of 10.6 years follow-up time (mean 4.4 years, SD 2.2). Participants’ address histories, emigration and vital status were retrieved from the National Population Registry from time of diagnosis and linked to NorCog clinical data. Participants 2,938 home-dwelling persons with dementia, ages 40–97 years at time of diagnosis (mean 76.1, SD 8.5). Results During follow-up, 992 persons (34%) were admitted to nursing-homes (NHs) and 1,556 (53%) died. Approximately four years after diagnosis, the probability of living in a NH peaked at 19%; thereafter, the probability decreased due to mortality. Median elapsed time from dementia diagnosis to NH admission among those admitted to NHs was 2.28 years (IQR 2.32). The probability of NH admission was greater for women than men due to women´s lower mortality rate. Persons living alone, particularly men, had a higher probability of NH admission than cohabitants. Age, dementia aetiology and severity of cognitive impairment at time of diagnosis did not influence the probability of NH admission. Those with fewer than 10 years of education had a lower probability of NH admission than those with 10 years or more, and this was independent of the excess mortality in the less-educated group. Conclusion Four years after diagnosis, half of the participants still lived at home, while NH residency peaked at 19%. Those with fewer than 10 years of education were less often admitted to NH.
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Pana, Tiberiu A., Adrian D. Wood, Jesus A. Perdomo-Lampignano, Somsak Tiamkao, Allan B. Clark, Kannikar Kongbunkiat, Joao H. Bettencourt-Silva, et al. "Impact of heart failure on stroke mortality and recurrence." Heart Asia 11, no. 1 (April 2019): e011139. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/heartasia-2018-011139.

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ObjectiveWe aimed to examine the impact of heart failure (HF) on stroke mortality (in-hospital and postdischarge) and recurrence in a national stroke cohort from Thailand.MethodsWe used a large, insurance-based database including all stroke admissions in the public health sector in Thailand between 2004 and 2015. Logistic and Royston-Parmar regressions were used to quantify the effect of HF on in-hospital and long-term outcomes, respectively. All models were adjusted for age, sex and comorbidities and stratified by stroke type: acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) or intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). Multistate models were constructed using flexible survival techniques to predict the impact of HF on the disease course of a patient with stroke (baseline-[recurrence]-death). Only first-ever cases of AIS or ICH were included in the multistate analysis.Results608 890 patients (mean age 64.29±13.72 years, 55.07% men) were hospitalised (370 527 AIS, 173 236 ICH and 65 127 undetermined pathology). There were 398 663 patients with first-ever AIS and ICH. Patients were followed up for a median (95% CI) of 4.47 years (4.45 to 4.49). HF was associated with an increase in postdischarge mortality in AIS (HR [99% CI] 1.69 [1.64 to 1.74]) and ICH (2.59 [2.07 to 3.26]). HF was not associated with AIS recurrence, while ICH recurrence was only significantly increased within the first 3 years after discharge (1.79 [1.18 to 2.73]).ConclusionsHF increases the risk of mortality in both AIS and ICH. We are the first to report on high-risk periods of stroke recurrence in patients with HF with ICH. Specific targeted risk reduction strategies may have significant clinical impact for mortality and recurrence in stroke.
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Chevallier, D., M. Girondot, R. Berzins, J. Chevalier, B. de Thoisy, J. Fretey, L. Kelle, and JD Lebreton. "Survival and breeding interval of an endangered marine vertebrate, the leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea, in French Guiana." Endangered Species Research 41 (February 13, 2020): 153–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/esr01013.

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In the context of global change, endangered species such as sea turtles undergo strong population dynamics changes. Understanding demographic processes inducing such changes is critical for developing appropriate measures for conservation and management. Nesting females of the French Guiana population of leatherback sea turtles Dermochelys coriacea represented 40% of the world’s total in 2001; today, they represent only 10%. Here, we analyze data from the long-term monitoring program of leatherbacks in French Guiana, based on 28 yr of capture-mark-recapture data from 46051 individuals in northwestern French Guiana. We used multievent models (multistate capture-recapture models with state uncertainty) to represent the main peculiarity of the life cycle, intermittent reproduction, and to take advantage of the use of several different types of marks to account for mark loss and incomplete detection. The average annual adult survival probability (mean ± SE) 0.789 ± 0.009 is low compared to published estimates for this species. By combining the estimates of departure and return probabilities, we provide an estimate of the interval among laying seasons equal to 2.777 ± 0.118 yr, which matches previous findings. Taking survival into account, this interval translates into an average of 1.704 ± 0.034 further reproductive seasons for an adult female having just bred, which is remarkably low compared to other long-lived vertebrates. The representation of the life cycle and mark loss in our models provides a sound structure for broader and richer analyses to extract biological information from marked individuals and offers an invaluable source of demographic information on leatherbacks, a species for which only a small segment of the population is accessible to intermittent sampling.
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Jones, Benjamin T., and Shawna K. Metzger. "Evaluating Conflict Dynamics." Journal of Conflict Resolution 62, no. 4 (July 19, 2016): 819–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002716656448.

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Interest in processes has become increasingly pronounced in international conflict research in recent years, especially how these processes unfold across time “dynamics”. We focus in particular on “stage conceptions” of dynamics: processes that unfold over a series of sequential, and possibly recurrent, stages. We suggest that stage conceptions have two key properties: plurisectality and conditional covariate effects. We propose a novel econometric application to quantitatively assess claims regarding stage conceptions of dynamics: survival modeling. Specifically, we use multistate models to examine how a process evolves through its individual stages, and also whether covariate effects differ across these stages. We use Huth and Allee’s territorial dispute data to demonstrate the importance of conceptualizing conflict as a dynamic process, as well as empirically modeling it as such. We show democracy has different effects on dispute resolution, depending on the dispute’s stage, but that these different effects disappear after time passes.
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Marescot, Lucile, Tavis D. Forrester, David S. Casady, and Heiko U. Wittmer. "Erratum to: Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer." Population Ecology 57, no. 1 (December 9, 2014): 199. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10144-014-0464-z.

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46

Tetzlaff, Fabian, Jelena Epping, Heiko Golpon, and Juliane Tetzlaff. "Compression, expansion, or maybe both? Growing inequalities in lung cancer in Germany." PLOS ONE 15, no. 11 (November 20, 2020): e0242433. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242433.

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Background Lung Cancer (LC) is one of the most common malign diseases worldwide. So far, it is unclear if the development of LC incidence and mortality leads to morbidity compression or expansion and whether these developments differ by socioeconomic characteristics. This study analyses time trends in social and gender inequalities in life years with and without LC in Germany. Methods The study is based on data of a large German statutory health insurance provider (N = 2,511,790). Incidence and mortality risks were estimated from multistate survival models. Trends in life years with and without LC were analysed using multistate life table analyses. All analyses were performed separately for gender, time period (2006–2009 and 2014–2017), and income group (<60% and ≥60% of the German average income). Results Among men, declining LC incidence rates resulted in gains of life years free of LC and declining LC- affected life years and led to a relative compression, which was strongest in men with higher incomes. Among women, a clear increase in life years with LC led to an expansion of the lifespan affected by LC. This expansion was mainly driven by increasing incidence rates in women with low incomes. Overall, income inequalities in LC increased in both genders. Conclusions Our analyses reveal that developments in the length of life affected by LC differed substantially by gender and income and led to widening health inequalities over time. Public health efforts should mainly focus on vulnerable groups to reduce the persisting social inequalities in LC.
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Van de Louw, Andry, Austin Cohrs, and Douglas Leslie. "Incidence of sepsis and associated mortality within the first year after cancer diagnosis in middle aged adults: A US population based study." PLOS ONE 15, no. 12 (December 28, 2020): e0243449. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243449.

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Background The incidence of sepsis has been rising overall but updated data in cancer patients are lacking. After a cancer diagnosis, incidence of sepsis and overall mortality peak within the first year. However, how much sepsis contributes to mortality remains unclear. We used a multistate model approach to analyze the incidence, risk factors and associated mortality of sepsis within 1 year of cancer diagnosis in middle aged adults. Methods Analysis of a large US health insurance claims database (Marketscan) between 2005 and 2014. Patients with a new diagnosis of cancer who received chemotherapy were included. Within a year of diagnosis, we assessed inpatient admissions for sepsis based on ICD-9 codes and survival using hospitalizations, outpatient visits and prescriptions filled. Competing risk and multistate models were used to assess the incidence of sepsis and transition probabilities between cancer, sepsis and death. Results 119,379 patients (38.9% males), aged 55 (50–60) years, were included; 2,560 developed isolated sepsis, 477 severe sepsis and 1331 septic shock within 1 year, with associated hospital mortality of 14.8%, 30% and 46% respectively. The probability of sepsis increased between 2005 and 2014; at 1 year, its cumulative incidence was 3.7% with a probability of mortality after sepsis of 35.5% (95% CI 21.6%-50.9%). Age, male gender, Charlson comorbidity index, hematological malignancies and metastases at diagnosis were associated with sepsis and mortality. Conclusions Incidence and mortality of sepsis were 3.7% and 35.5% at 1 year after cancer diagnosis and were both associated with baseline patient and cancer characteristics.
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Craig, Zoe, Christopher Parrish, Charlotte Pawlyn, Martin F. Kaiser, Catherine Olivier, John R. Jones, Mark T. Drayson, et al. "Multistate Models Demonstrate That Lenalidomide Maintenance Enhances Survival By Prolonging Time in First Remission for Patients Treated in the UK NCRI Myeloma XI Randomised Trial." Blood 138, Supplement 1 (November 5, 2021): 3758. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood-2021-150631.

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Abstract Introduction In traditional analysis of cancer clinical trials, key endpoints such as progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are often analysed separately. Using multistate models (MSMs) we can model these events simultaneously to holistically analyse the disease-treatment pathway. This provides meaningful estimates for the probability of disease progression and death at any point in the disease course, incorporating treatment and prognostic factors of interest. MSMs are also a useful tool to assess the relationship between how the time spent in one state affects the risk of transitioning to future states. In the context of myeloma (MM), this can be used to determine patient prognosis based on the time for which they remain in 1 st remission after initial treatment. Methods In the largest randomised trial of MM patients undertaken to date (NCRI Myeloma XI), newly diagnosed MM patients eligible for ASCT (NDMM TE) were randomised to induction, intensification and maintenance treatments. Maintenance randomisation, at ASCT+3 months, was to lenalidomide (R), lenalidomide plus vorinostat (RZ) or observation. Co-primary endpoints were PFS and OS analysed by Cox regression. An MSM was used for exploratory analysis of 1074 TE patients randomised to maintenance. Patients transitioned irreversibly between 4 states: 1 st remission, alive and in remission after 1 st progressive disease (PD1), alive and in remission after 2 nd PD (PD2) and dead (Figure 1). Time in 1 st remission was included as a covariate to assess the effect of early disease progression on subsequent state transitions (&lt;12 months n=172, 12-18m n=106, ≥18m n=796). Results The median follow-up from randomisation was 57m (interquartile range: 43-72m). MSM analysis found that a 1 st remission of &lt;12m from randomisation was associated with a highly increased risk of transition to PD2 following PD1 (hazard ratio (HR) 4.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.20-6.43) and death (HR 1.93, 95%CI 1.17-3.20) vs. a 1 st remission of ≥18m. A 1 st remission of 12-18m was also associated with an increased risk of transition to PD2 following PD1 (HR 2.79, 95%CI 1.96-3.96), but was not associated with an increased risk of death following PD1 (HR 0.95, 95%CI 0.61-1.47) vs. a 1 st remission of ≥18m. At a snapshot at 5 years post-randomisation, those with a 1 st remission ≥18m had a 24.9% chance of being in the PD1 state, compared to just 6.4% and 1.1% in those with 1 st remissions of 12-18m and &lt;12m respectively (Figure 2). Furthermore, this group had a 6.1% chance of death following PD1 and 5.7% chance of death following PD2. In those with a 1 st remission of 12-18m, this increased to 31.0% and 38.8%, and in those &lt;12m to 29.3% and 48.6%, respectively. MSM analysis also found R and RZ were associated with a reduced risk of transition from 1 st remission to PD1 vs. observation (R HR 0.51, 95%CI 0.42-0.60; RZ HR 0.68, 95%CI 0.55-0.88), reflecting the results of the primary trial analysis of PFS. Primary trial analysis of OS found that R was associated with significantly longer OS than observation. However, MSM analysis found R was associated with an increased risk of death following both PD1 (HR 1.60, 95%CI 1.06-2.41) and PD2 (HR 1.46, 95%CI 1.03-2.07) vs. observation. This suggests that the OS benefit of R is gained by extending the time in 1 st remission. RZ was associated with increased risk of death without PD (HR 3.07, 95%CI 1.05-9.03) and death following PD2 (HR 1.49, 95%CI 0.99-2.26) vs. observation. The MSM also found that the expected duration in 1 st remission was longest for R and shortest for observation (R 56.7m, RZ 47.7m and obs. 38.6m). However, in the PD1 state (R 12.8m, RZ 15.7m and obs. 21.9m) and PD2 state (R 5.4m, RZ 7.3m and obs. 11.0m) this order was reversed, although the difference between the groups was reduced for later states. Discussion MSMs are a powerful tool for exploring the myeloma disease pathway, identifying associations between states and providing transition probabilities which can be easily interpreted to gain further insights to those obtained via traditional methods. MSMs are an effective method to visualise data, clearly demonstrating the association between early relapse post-ASCT and poor prognosis in NDMM. This work has expanded on the primary analysis of the maintenance randomised treatments in Myeloma XI, corroborating results previously observed and highlighting the potential effects of maintenance treatment on each stage of the disease pathway. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Craig: Celgene: Research Funding; Merck Sharpe & Dohme: Research Funding; Amgen: Research Funding; Takeda: Research Funding. Pawlyn: Amgen: Honoraria; Janssen: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Sanofi: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Celgene / BMS: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Kaiser: AbbVie: Consultancy; BMS/Celgene: Consultancy, Other: Travel support, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Other: Educational support, Research Funding; GSK: Consultancy; Karyopharm: Consultancy, Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy, Other: Educational support; Pfizer: Consultancy; Amgen: Honoraria; Seattle Genetics: Consultancy. Olivier: Celgene / BMS: Research Funding; Amgen: Research Funding; Takeda: Research Funding; Merck Sharpe and Dohme: Research Funding. Jones: Janssen: Honoraria; BMS/Celgene: Other: Conference fees. Drayson: Abingdon Health: Current holder of individual stocks in a privately-held company. Jenner: Takeda: Consultancy; Pfizer: Consultancy; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; BMS/Celgene: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau. Cook: Amgen: Consultancy; BMS/Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy, Research Funding; Takeda: Consultancy, Research Funding; Sanofi: Consultancy; Karyopharm: Consultancy. Davies: BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria; Abbvie: Consultancy, Honoraria; Takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria; Roche: Consultancy, Honoraria; Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria. Morgan: BMS: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Jansen: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Karyopharm: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Oncopeptides: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; GSK: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Jackson: J and J: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; GSK: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; takeda: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Speakers Bureau; celgene BMS: Consultancy, Honoraria, Research Funding, Speakers Bureau; oncopeptides: Consultancy; Sanofi: Honoraria, Speakers Bureau. Cairns: Celgene / BMS: Other: travel support, Research Funding; Merck Sharpe and Dohme: Research Funding; Amgen: Research Funding; Takeda: Research Funding.
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Ofstedal, Mary Beth, Chi-Tsun Chiu, Carol Jagger, Yasuhiko Saito, and Zachary Zimmer. "Religion, Life Expectancy, and Disability-Free Life Expectancy Among Older Women and Men in the United States." Journals of Gerontology: Series B 74, no. 8 (August 24, 2018): e107-e118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/geronb/gby098.

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Abstract Objectives Existing literature shows religion is associated with health and survival separately. We extend this literature by considering health and survival together using a multistate life table approach to estimate total, disability-free, and disabled life expectancy (LE), separately for women and men, for 2 disability measures, and by 2 indicators of religion. Method Data come from the Health and Retirement Study (1998–2014 waves). Predictors include importance of religion and attendance at religious services. The disability measures are defined by ADLs and IADLs. Models control for sociodemographic and health covariates. Results Attendance at religious services shows a strong and consistent association with life and health expectancy. Men and women who attend services at least once a week (compared with those who attend less frequently or never) have between 1.1 and 5.1 years longer total LE and between 1.0 and 4.3 years longer ADL disability-free LE. Findings for IADL disability are similar. Importance of religion is related to total and disabled LE (both ADL and IADL), but the differentials are smaller and less consistent. Controlling for sociodemographic and health factors does not explain these associations. Discussion By estimating total, disability-free, and disabled LE, we are able to quantify the advantage of religion for health. Results are consistent with previous studies that have focused on health and mortality separately.
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50

Ryder, Thomas B., and T. Scott Sillett. "Climate, demography and lek stability in an Amazonian bird." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 283, no. 1823 (January 13, 2016): 20152314. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.2314.

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Lekking is a rare, but iconic mating system where polygynous males aggregate and perform group displays to attract females. Existing theory postulates that demographic and environmental stability are required for lekking to be an evolutionarily viable reproductive strategy. However, we lack empirical tests for the hypotheses that lek stability is facilitated by age-specific variation in demographic rates, and by predictable, abundant resources. To address this knowledge gap, we use multistate models to examine how two demographic elements of lek stability—male survival and recruitment—vary with age, social status and phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a Neotropical frugivorous bird, the wire-tailed manakin ( Pipra filicauda ) . Our results show that demographic and environmental conditions were related to lek stability in the Ecuadorean Amazon. Apparent annual survival probability of territorial males was higher than that of non-territorial floaters, and recruitment probability increased as males progressed in an age-graded queue. Moreover, annual survival of territorial males and body condition of both floaters and territory holders were higher following years with El Niño conditions, associated with reduced rainfall and probably higher fruit production in the northern Neotropics, and lower after years with wet, La Niña conditions that predominated our study. Recruitment probabilities varied annually, independent of ENSO phase, and increased over our study period, but the annual mean number of territorial males per lek declined. Our results provide empirical support for hypothesized demographic and environmental drivers of lek dynamics. This study also suggests that climate-mediated changes in resource availability can affect demography and subsequent lek stability in a relatively buffered, lowland rainforest.
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