Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Multicriteria Decision Analysi'

This thesis aims to demonstrate how these issues can be solved using specific case studies as examples. The first chapter is dedicated to an introduction to the LCA methodology, in which it is also possible to find a literature review focused on the strengths and weaknesses that may characterize LCA. The second part of the chapter details the methods utilized to analyze uncertainty in LCA results, the state of the art for streamlined and predictive approaches and, finally, an overview of a multi-criteria analysis method useful for materials selection. In particular, the uncertainty analysis associated with LCA results may represent the starting point for the development of streamlined LCA approaches and possible methods of forecasting the environmental results of novel technologies. On the other hand, the multi-criteria analysis grounded in the uncertainty analysis presents a robust method of materials selection in support of Ecodesign. In the second chapter, the uncertainty analysis is used to develop a streamlined LCA method founded on the probabilistic underspecification approach, proposed to support the building design process. The case studies analyzed in this section represent a series of residential building assemblies (exterior walls, interior walls, foundations, roofs, floors, windows, doors, exterior finishes) that were used to test the streamlined method and obtain distributions of results using a cradle-to-gate approach along five phases of the building design process. The bill of materials (BOM) of a building assembly can be specified using different levels of information, which can be really generic during the concept design and fully detailed during the executive project. The low-fidelity characterization of a BOM and the uncertainty associated with these low levels of fidelity are systematically quantified through probabilistic underspecification using a hierarchical classification of materials. Quantitative environmental results, processed with uncertainty analysis, were obtained using low-fidelity categories for materials and building assemblies, demonstrating that LCA can be applied not only when a complete and detailed BOM is available but also when fewer details are known. Finally, decision-making at different stages of the design process is sustained by this approach and is based on the use of a comparison indicator. The third chapter advances the research aimed at streamlining the LCA of buildings with probabilistic underspecification and uncertainty analysis. In particular, it investigates whether LCA can be robustly streamlined through an effective and efficient triage of data collection and the consequent selected use of specific and resource-intensive information. In this context, tests were conducted with a series of building typologies (single-family detached houses and multi-family residential buildings), again analyzed with a cradle-to-gate approach. The probabilistic triage approach was tested to clarify how to use probabilistic underspecification and reduce the effort involved in specification by identifying the activities that require careful characterization. With this approach, by specifying only one part of the bill of materials to the highest level of specificity, the results proved to be both reasonably accurate and obtainable with less effort. Impacts such as global warming, acidification, eutrophication, and smog creation were assessed, and the results indicated that just 40-46% of the BOM components represent 75% of the total impacts of both single-family houses and multi-family buildings. Where the second and third chapters were devoted to the streamlined analysis of conventional products, the fourth chapter addresses the use of uncertainty analysis to forecast the environmental burden of an innovative material. Here, a scale-up protocol for an environmental impact assessment is proposed as a means to develop a streamlined ex-ante LCA approach. The novel element of this chapter consists of the adopted scale-up protocol. It does not rely on primary data collected by monitoring real industrial systems, as these data do not yet exist for the product of interest; instead, data measured in a plant at the pilot scale are used alongside data simulated from thermo-chemical considerations based on the stoichiometry of the considered reaction. The scale-up protocol is described and then applied to the case of polybutylene succinate (PBS), a biopolymer that is gaining attention (particularly as a replacement for polyolefins) and is obtained from bio-based succinic acid. Monte Carlo simulation was used to process the uncertainty data for all of the assessments, and a sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate and compare the different renewable sources and chemical routes available for the production of bio-based succinic acid. The case study of PBS highlights how innovative products can be analyzed without the use of primary data, providing a way to forecast environmental impacts for novel technologies. The advantages of the adopted scale-up methodology consist of the ease of implementation and the possibility of strengthening the Ecodesign approach. In the fifth chapter, a multi-criteria analysis was used to complete the ex-ante LCA results for PBS. The purpose of this analysis was to compare PBS to alternative materials on the basis of more than one property and for use in a specific function. This approach led to the definition of a new concept of the system boundary of the assessment: from cradle to function. The motivation for this alternative strategy stems from the application of the LCA framework to a material to obtain an ecoprofile: the scope of the analysis is generally from cradle to the factory gate, while the unit of mass (or volume) of the material is usually taken as the functional unit for the analysis. However, these methodological choices place relevant limitations on the effectiveness of the assessment. In this chapter, a multi-criteria materials approach was tested using the PBS results to verify and validate the environmental viability of this material’s usage in packaging films. The most novel element of this research is the use of the customized ex-ante LCA and the uncertainty analysis, the latter of which is used to determine the uncertainty in material indices. The results were graphically represented with Ashby plots. When elongation at break and environmental performance were considered, PBS displayed a performance that was better than other traditional polyesters and comparable to the polyolefins considered; performance in terms of this set of properties is particularly beneficial in the case of secondary packaging. In the case of primary packaging, barrier properties acquire major relevance; in this regard, PBS presented among the best trade-offs for the simultaneous optimization of oxygen permeability, elongation at break and environmental impact. Finally, the sixth chapter is devoted to the review of the approaches that were implemented and tested to streamline LCA, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses for each analyzed system and discussing future methodological developments. In particular, the uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was used not just to characterize the quality of results but also to develop and implement streamlined approaches. Moreover, the uncertainty analysis proved to be useful for forecasting environmental results for early-stage systems and innovative materials.

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores
The main objective of this dissertation is to perform a Comparative Analysis of different Multicriteria Decision Making Methods applied to real-world problems, in order to produce relevant information to enable the incorporation of those methods on computational platforms. The current document presents a simple case study concerning a decision support application targeted for a real problem regarding retrofitting alternatives of a building with energy efficiency impact. The application process was started with the selection of two Multicriteria Decision Making Methods guided by a preexisting framework, and resulted in the choice of AHP and PROMETHEE II methodologies. These two methods were then combined with three different decision maker profiles (Conservative, Moderate and Aggressive) created by means of risk assessment profiling techniques for portfolio allocation. Afterwards, the chosen decision criteria were disposed in a Risk Pyramid according to their inherent level of risk regarding project evaluation. A match was then performed between the decision maker profiles and each criterion, so as to define a proper set of weights for the decision criteria and preference functions, with corresponding preference and indifference thresholds. Finally, three different sets of results (one for each decision maker profile) were produced using appropriate software, and a Sensitivity Analysis was performed over the criteria to understand their influence on the solution. The general conclusion of this Comparative Analysis is that the increase in the preference modelling ability of the methods brings up the least expected alternatives as recommendations for the decision maker. Besides, we have concluded that the decision profiles that allocate bigger weights to the riskiest criteria are the ones that produce the more dispersed set of results within each method application and within each decision maker profile.

Thesis: S.M. in Transportation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2016.
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 227-231).
Due to their magnitude and longevity, transportation investments can determine the long term success or failure of a transportation system. Thus, it is vital for decision-makers to have deep understanding of the alternatives available before they chose to invest. In this thesis, we examine the current state of the practice for transportation investment decisions. We draw upon the literature and this existing state of the practice to develop a new decision aid which we believe is an improvement over existing aids. We then apply this new decision aid to a transportation investment decision facing the East Japan Railway Company (JR East) and draw conclusions about the usefulness of our new tool. Our decision aid, the CLIOSjre Process, is designed to help decision-makers compare multiple alternatives and make an informed transportation investment decision. The process examines the decision from multiple perspectives where each of these perspectives represents one of the priorities of the decision-maker. By considering each priority separately, the CLIOSjre Process provides a detailed understanding of each alternative. The CLIOSjre Process also combines these individual evaluations into a single overall evaluation of each alternative. This overall evaluation provides the decision-maker with an actionable ranking of the alternatives. In combination, these perspective-specific and overall evaluations of each alternative provide a detailed and holistic understanding of the decision facing the decision-maker. Unlike many other decision aids, the CLIOSjre Process accounts for both the multistakeholder nature of transportation investments and the uncertainty inherent to these decisions. The multifaceted nature of the CLIOSjre Process examines each alternative from multiple perspectives. This approach better facilitates negotiation between stakeholders. In addition, the CLIOSjre Process formally identifies and addresses uncertainty in the analysis - the primary source of risk in transportation investment decisions. Thus, the CLIOSjre Process is a unique multicriteria, multistakeholder decision aid which addresses uncertainty. We hope that this thesis provides the reader with a better understanding of the application, challenges, and opportunities of multicriteria multistakeholder decision aids.
by Timothy Patton Doyle.
S.M. in Transportation

This dissertation presents an application of multicriteria decision analysis to understand and support pricing decisions in fields where goods are unique and described by their characteristics. The specific application area of this research is antique silver objects, where a complete iteration of the multicritia decision process is performed. This includes two problem structurings using SODA which provide rich detail into this application area. Multi-attribute additive models are constructed, with attribute partial value functions elicited using different methods: directly (bisection methods), indirectly (MACBETH and linear interpolation) and with discrete choice experiments. The applicability and advantages of each method is discussed. Additionally, an open source R package to implement the design of discrete choice experiments is created. The multi-attribute models provide key insights into decision maker's reasoning for price; and contrasting different decision maker's models explains the market. A risk adverse relationship between multicriteria model score and price is characterised and various inverse utility functions investigated. Two decision support systems are fully developed to address the needs of Cape silver decision makers in South Africa.

A aplicação de metodologias de análise multicriterial já é utilizada há décadas para análise de investimentos de alto capital, e continuam sendo ferramentas de referência para tomadas de decisão nas organizações em todo mundo. Contudo, não só grandes investimentos são influênciados por variáveis que interagem entre si e precisam ser levadas em consideração numa tomada de decisão acertada. No dia-a-dia de uma empresa, em diversos setores, decisões de menores impactos são tomadas sem que um método de análise multicriterial seja adotado para tal escolha. No entanto, quando somadas, essas decisões de menores impactos acabam por influênciar no resultado geral da empresa. O objetivo dessa pesquisa foi desenvolver um método ágil de análise multicriterial que possa ser facilmente adaptado e aplicado em processos operacionais dinâmicos, comuns na rotina de grandes empresas, auxiliando nas tomadas de decisões em níveis mais baixos da organização. O método proposto foi aplicado em dois diferentes processos de uma empresa multinacional do setor de mineração. No primeiro processo foi avaliada a priorização da implantação de projetos de melhoria, onde ideias de empregados são transformadas em projetos que geram ganhos para a empresa. No segundo processo de programação da manutenção, o método auxiliou na priorização da execução de serviços de manutenção quando existem limitações de recursos. O método proposto combina a utilização de ferramentas de diversos métodos já consagrados com a adoção de soluções criativas para atender a dinamicidade dos processos avaliados.
Multicriteria analysis methodologies have been used for decades to analyze substantial capital investment alternatives, and continue to be a reference tool for capital budgeting decision making in organizations. Small investments are also influenced by several variables that need to be taken into account in assertive decision making. Minor impacts decisions are taken without using a method of multicriteria analysis and when all this decisions are combined, they influence the overall result of the company. The objective of this research is to develop a multi-criteria analysis method agile that can be easily adapted and applied to different operation dynamic process, usual in large businesses routine, helping decision making at lower levels of the organization. The proposed method was applied in two different processes of a multinational company in the mining sector. In the first case the process of prioritization projects method was studied, where ideas of employees were transformed into smaller projects that generate profit for the company. In the second case, maintenance scheduling, the method helped to prioritize the execution of maintenance services when there are resource limitation. The proposed method combines tools of renowned methods with creative solutions to help a decision making in dynamics processes.

The complexity of financial analysis, particularly on selection process or decision making problems, has increased rapidly over several decades. As a result, much attention has been focused on developing and implementing the efficient mathematical models for supporting this kind of problems. Multiple criteria decision analysis, an advanced field of operations research provides analysts or decision makers a broad range of methodologies, which are all suited to the complexity of financial decision analysis. In the financial modeling, uncertainty problems are inevitable, owing to the fact that the consequences of events are not precisely known. In addition, human judgments as part of analysis also contribute to it intricacy. Correspondingly, many studies have been concentrated on integrating uncertainty theories in modeling the real financial problems. One area of interest is on the inclusion of the element of human behavior or attitudinal character of decision makers. Aggregation operator in this case can offer a wide spectrum of analysis or flexibility in modeling the human behavior in financial decision analysis. In general, the main purpose of this work is on the study of financial selection problems from the perspective of decision analysis, uncertainty theories and aggregation operators. To be specific, the decision problems under a finite or discrete case and multidimensional factors are studied. The emphasis is given on the group decision making models, notably, the Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) of belief structure, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). Moreover, the uncertainty theories based on fuzzy set theory and imprecise probability are employed, together with information fusion based on the ordered weighted average (OWA) operators. Quantitative and qualitative preferences, decision strategies based on the attitudinal character of decision makers, and majority concepts for group consensus are highlighted. The specific contributions of this work are summarized as the following: • The first contribution is on developing the multi-expert multi-criteria decision making (ME-MCDM) model with respect to two-stage aggregation processes. In specific, the aggregation of criteria is based on the integration of weighted arithmetic mean (WA) and OWA. The main attention is given on the proposed alternative OWAWA operator as an extension of immediate WA and OWAWA operators. Two approaches for modeling the majority opinion of experts are studied, in which based on the induced OWA (IOWA) operators. Some modifications to the support functions are suggested as to derive the order inducing variables. The analysis of ME-MCDM model based on these aggregation processes then is conducted. In this study the selection of investment strategy is used as to exemplify the model. • The weighted-selective aggregated majority-OWA operator may be considered as the second contribution. It is as an extension of the SAM-OWA operator, where the reliability of information sources is considered. The WSAM-OWA then is generalized to the quantified WSAM-OWA by incorporating the concept of linguistic quantifier, mainly for the group fusion strategy. The QWSAM-IOWA with an ordering step is proposed for the individual fusion strategy. These aggregation operators are then implemented to the case of alternative scheme of heterogeneous group decision analysis, in particular for a selection of investment problem. • Third contribution is represented by the development of linguistic group decision making with Dempster-Shafer belief structure. Different type of linguistic aggregation operator such as the 2-tuple induced linguistic OWA operator is suggested. Specifically, it is based on order-inducing variables in which the ordering of the arguments and uncertain situations can be assessed with linguistic information. Then, by using the 2-TILOWA in the D-S framework, the belief structure-2-TILOWA operator can be formed. Some of its main properties are studied. This model is applied in a selection of financial strategies. • The extension of AHP for group decision making model is given as the fourth contribution, notably, based on the inclusion of IOWA operators. Two-stage aggregation processes used in the AHP-GDM model are extended. Firstly, a generalization of weighted maximal entropy OWA under the IOWA operator is proposed as to aggregate the criteria. Further, the majority concept based on the IOWA and Minkowski OWA-based similarity measure is suggested to determine a consensus among experts. This model provides a variant of decision strategies for analyzing the individual and the majority of experts. The application in investment selection problem is presented to test the reliability of the model. • The fifth contribution is on the integration of heavy ordered weighted geometric (HOWG) aggregation operators in AHP-GDM model. In the sense of heavy OWA operator (HOWA), the heavy weighted geometric (HWG) and HOWG are introduced as extensions of the normal weighted geometric mean (WG) and the OWG by relaxing the constraints on the associated weighting vector. These HWG and HOWG operators then are utilized in the aggregation process of AHP-GDM, specifically on the aggregation of individual judgments procedure. The main advantage of the model, besides the complete overlapping of information such in classical methods, is that it can also accommodate partial and non-overlapping information in the formulation. An investment selection problem is applied to demonstrate the model. • The extension of TOPSIS for group decision making model by the inclusion of majority concept may be considered as the sixth contribution. The majority concept is derived based on the induced generalized OWA (IGOWA) operators. Two fusion schemes in TOPSIS model are designed. First, an external fusion scheme to aggregate the experts’ judgments with respect to the concept of majority opinion on each criterion is suggested. Then, an internal fusion scheme of ideal and anti-ideal solutions that represents the majority of experts is proposed using the Minkowski OWA distance measures. The comparison of the proposed model with some other TOPSIS models with respect to distance measures is presented. Here, a general case of selection problem is presented, specifically on the human resource selection problem. • Finally, the group decision making model based on conflicting bifuzzy sets (CBFS) is proposed. Precisely, the subjective judgments of experts, mainly from positive and negative aspects are considered simultaneously in the analysis. Moreover, the weighting method for the attribute (or sub-attribute) is subject to the integration of subjective and objective weights. The synthesis of CBFS in the model is naturally done by extending the fuzzy evaluation in parallel with the intuitionistic fuzzy set. A new technique to compute the similarity measure is proposed, in which, being the degree of agreement between the experts. The model then is applied in the case study of flood control project selection problem. To sum up, the presented thesis dealt with the extension of multi-criteria decision analysis models for the financial selection problems (as a specific scope) and also the general selection problems with the inclusion of attitudinal character, majority concept and fuzzy set theory. In particular, the group decision making model, Dempster-Shafer belief structure, AHP and TOPSIS are proposed to overcome the shortcoming of the existing models, i.e., related to the financial decision analysis. The applicability and robustness of the developed models have been demonstrated and some sensitivity analyses are also provided. The main advantages of the proposed models are to provide a more general and flexible models for a wider analysis of the decision problems.
La tesis, a través del análisis y desarrollo del Análisis de decisiones, Teorías de incertidumbre y Operadores de agregación, busca contribuir al estado del arte y nuevas propuesta de las necesidades y demandas que los decisores, responsables o e inversores financieros se encuentran por la creciente complejidad de sus análisis y estrategias, sobre todo en los procesos de selección o en los problemas de decisión. Así, el objetivo principal de esta tesis es el estudio de los problemas de selección financiera desde la perspectiva del análisis de decisiones, las teorías de la incertidumbre y los operadores de agregación. En concreto, se estudian los problemas de decisión en virtud de un conjunto finito de alternativas (caso discreto) y de factores multidimensionales. En el trabajo se desarrolla una extensión de los modelos de análisis de decisiones multicriterio y multiexperto que se utilizan en la resolución de los problemas de selección financiera (como ámbito específico), pero también en los problemas de selección generales, con la inclusión del carácter actitudinal, el concepto de mayoría y la teoría de los conjuntos borrosos. En particular, el énfasis se sitúa en los modelos de toma de decisiones en grupo y en la estructura de creencias Dempster-Shafer (D-S), el proceso analítico jerárquico (AHP) i la técnica de orden de preferencia por similitud con la solución ideal (TOPSIS). Además, se aplican las teorías de incertidumbre basadas en conjuntos borrosos y de probabilidades imprecisas juntamente con la fusión de la información basada en operadores OWA. También se destaca las preferencias cuantitativas y cualitativas, las estrategias de decisión basadas en el carácter actitudinal de los decisores, y el concepto de mayoría en el consenso grupal, de forma que se propone el desarrollo de operadores OWA, la generalización de los modelos AHP y TOPSIS, juntamente con el modelo de toma de decisiones grupal y la estructura de creencias Dempster-Shafer, con el fin de superar las deficiencias de los modelos existentes en relación con el análisis de decisiones financieras. En particular, la investigación realizada se puede sintetizar en siete aportaciones específicas al state-of-the-art del Análisis de decisiones y los operadores de agregación, con aplicaciones en diferentes problemas de decisión financiera: 1. Operadores de agregación basados en los OWA en los modelos de decisión Multiexpertos y Multicriterio. 2. Operadores ponderados SAM-OWA y su aplicación en modelos GDM con operadores lingüísticos. 3. Modelos GDM con operadores lingüísticos adaptados a la teoría de Dempster-Shafer con la aplicación de operadores de agregación inducidos lingüísticos. 4. Generalización del modelo AHP para decisiones grupales usando operadores OWA inducidos. 5. Introducción de operadores OWA geométricos y pesados en los modelos GDM y AHP. 6. Ampliación de los modelos TOPSIS con operadores de agregación basados en los OWA. 7. Desarrollo y aplicación del Conflicting bifuzzy a modelos de decisión MAGDM En la tesis se demuestra la aplicabilidad y la robustez de los modelos desarrollados, tanto con un esquema de agregación de expertos clásicos como con un esquema alternativo que separa por criterios de decisión. Las principales ventajas de los modelos propuestos son que se tratan modelos más generales y flexibles para un análisis más amplio de los problemas de decisión, en particular de los de selección financiera, que incorporen diversos criterios, expertos y componentes de incertidumbre y lingüísticos.

Les problematiques de decision multicritere ont ete l'objet d'un interet croissant au cours des vingt dernieres annees. Plus recemment, les travaux de resolution de tels problemes ont vu le developpement d'algorithmes interactifs s'appuyant sur diverses strategies d'optimisation. Apres avoir etabli quelques resultats theoriques sur les notions d'efficacite et de prudence au sens de arrow-raynaud, nous aborderons dans cette these l'etude d'une methode interactive de prise de decision utile a la resolution de problemes complexes tels que les problematiques de planification spatiale ou d'amenagement. Cette methode est fondee sur l'identification d'une axiomatique efficace et prudente

It can be a hard and time consuming task for a decision maker to decide which parts of a network to reinvest in. There are a lot of parameters to take into consideration regarding reinvestments, for example age, number of outages, number of inspection remarks and the degree of inspection remarks. Without any visualization, it is difficult to detect patterns in the data. Therefor, the decision maker is required to really know the network he/she is working with and to have a gut feeling of where to reinvest. The purpose of this thesis is to show that the decision making process can be much simpler and better supported when using GIS tools for analysis and visualization. This is done by designing a prototype of a web application that can produce multicriteria decision analysis on the parameters of interest for reinvestments in a power network.Traditionally, heavy desktop clients are for expert users while web-based clients are better for layman users. One of the greatest advantages of a web-based client over a desktop client is that it can be reached externally from any device that has access to internet. Because of this, the prototype is developed as a web-based client. Customer data can be sensitive information, this means that the data needs to be secure and directly accessible for the users of the application. Therefor, a 3-tier architecture with client, server and database is used. The result is visualized in a map, which makes it easy for anyone to interpret the result. Since the prototype is developed to be used by none GIS experts, the weighted linear combination method is used for the analysis. The prototype is not fully automated and does not deliver an absolute decision, the goal is rather for it to function as an aid for the decision maker when deciding on the final reinvestment area. The prototype is evaluated by the prospective users of the application through a questionnaire and the results show that a tool like this would be very useful for reinvestments decisions. Since the prototype does not rely on topology or network structure, it can be adapted to other spatial decision problems than just reinvestments in power networks.

Nel contesto delle valutazioni di sostenibilità delle trasformazioni territoriali e, più in generale, della gestione dell’ambiente e delle risorse naturali, i problemi decisionali con i quali i Decision Makers si confrontano sono tipicamente caratterizzati dal coinvolgere una componente spaziale (individuazione di aree idonee ad ospitare discariche, valutazione ambientale strategica di piani regolatori, etc.), dal richiedere più di un criterio di valutazione e dal perseguire più di un obiettivo (protezione dell’ambiente, ma anche crescita economica e giustizia sociale, ossia sviluppo sostenibile). Al fine di gestire la crescente complessità in tale contesto di analisi è necessario garantire, da un lato, un approccio sistemico e di tipo non lineare e, dall’altro, un’integrazione di metodi e discipline. Questo ha stimolato, in fase operativa, l’integrazione delle funzioni spaziali tipiche dei Geographic Information Systems (GIS) con quelle di Analisi Multicriteri tipiche dei Decision Support Systems (DSS; Burstein e Holsapple, 2008), generando i modelli denominati Multicriteria- Spatial Decision Support Systems (MC-SDSS; Malczewski, 1999) e sviluppando una piattaforma ideale per l’analisi, la strutturazione e la risoluzione di problemi inerenti alla gestione dell’ambiente e del territorio. I modelli MC-SDSS costituiscono strumenti di analisi e valutazione recentemente sviluppati in campo internazionale ma ancora scarsamente sperimentati a livello nazionale e rappresentano una delle più recenti evoluzioni delle procedure di valutazione (Valutazione di Impatto Ambientale –VIA, Valutazione Ambientale Strategica –VAS e Valutazione di Incidenza Ecologica –VIE) nell’ambito degli interventi di trasformazione territoriale. Obiettivo generale del testo è quello di esplorare strumenti di lavoro innovativi in grado di aiutare la comprensione dei fenomeni complessi relativi alle trasformazioni del territorio e, in particolare, di evidenziare il contributo delle tecniche MC-SDSS all’interno delle procedure di VIA, VAS e VIE e alla scelta di alternative di intervento. La tesi si articola in 6 capitoli, alcuni prettamente metodologici, altri applicativi. In particolare, il capitolo 1 contestualizza l’approfondimento proponendo una riflessione sulla complessità dei sistemi ed evidenziando come quest’ultima ponga con forza la questione della valutazione, con particolare riferimento all’attività di decision- making a supporto delle analisi di sostenibilità e della pianificazione. Il secondo e il terzo capitolo sono, invece, caratterizzati da una connotazione prettamente metodologica. Il capitolo 2 presenta infatti dettagliatamente i due strumenti dalla cui integrazione nascono i modelli MC-SDSS, ovvero le tecniche di Analisi Multicriteri e i sistemi GIS, fornendo per entrambi cenni storici ed illustrandone i fondamenti metodologici al fine di sottolineare le limitazioni intrinsecamente associate ad entrambi, nonché il valore aggiunto derivante dalla loro integrazione. Il capitolo 3 illustra quindi il risultato di tale innovativo approccio metodologico mettendo in luce quali siano gli elementi fondamentali di un’Analisi Multicriteri spaziale e quali i possibili gradi di integrazione tra i sopra menzionati strumenti. La trattazione prosegue illustrando, nel capitolo 4, un’analisi dettagliata relativa allo stato dell’arte delle tecniche MC-SDSS finalizzata ad evidenziare il crescente interesse manifestato nel corso degli ultimi anni nei confronti di tale innovativa metodologia e, soprattutto, ad illustrare quali siano i trend più attuali della ricerca in tale settore, attraverso lo sviluppo di una classificazione della letteratura scientifica pubblicata negli ultimi 4 anni. Al fine di dare maggiore concretezza alla trattazione, il capitolo 5 propone lo sviluppo e l’applicazione di un modello MC-SDSS basato sull’integrazione tra il GIS e una particolare tecnica di Analisi Multicriteri recentemente distintasi per le sue potenzialità nella rappresentazione di problemi decisionali complessi e denominata Analytic Network Process (ANP; Saaty, 2005) per la valutazione dell’idoneità del territorio nell’area Nord Est della Provincia di Torino alla localizzazione di una discarica di rifiuti solidi urbani. Tale applicazione si caratterizza come una delle prime sperimentazioni della spatial ANP a livello nazionale. L’ultimo capitolo del testo affronta, infine, la questione dell’applicabilità dei modelli MC-SDSS nei processi decisionali, mettendo in luce limiti e potenzialità degli stessi strumenti e proponendo una riflessione su alcuni aspetti sensibili.

La present tesi proposa una metodologia de disseny conceptual d'estacions depuradores d'aigües residuals (EDAR) mitjançant la combinació del procés de decisió jeràrquic i l'anàlisi de decisions multicriteri. El document s'inicia amb una breu introducció als principals camps abordats pel treball: el disseny dels processos químics en general, el disseny de les estacions depuradores d'aigües residuals en particular, i l'anàlisi de decisions multicriteri aplicada a la gestió ambiental. Seguidament, es fixen els objectius del treball i es descriuen tant la metodologia com el material de suport informàtic utilitzats. Per validar i contrastar la metodologia de disseny presentada, es desenvolupa un cas d'estudi on es porta a terme el disseny conceptual d'una EDAR que presenta els mateixos requeriments que l'EDAR que opera actualment al municipi de Granollers. Inicialment es presenta la informació de partida i tot seguit es defineixen els objectius de disseny, així com el conjunt de criteris que s'utilitzaran per avaluar en quina mesura es compleixen aquests objectius. Els objectius de disseny són de diferents tipus: ambientals, tècnics, socials i econòmics, i el conjunt de criteris utilitzats, concretament 33, també es classifica segons aquestes quatre categories. Cadascun dels criteris presenta un determinat pes d'importància relativa en la presa de decisions. Finalment, es desenvolupa tot el procés de decisió fins a obtenir el disseny complet de l'EDAR. El procés de decisió s'ha dividit en dues parts diferenciades però que alhora s'entrellacen: la línia d'aigua i la línia de fang. El procés de decisió presenta un total de divuit qüestions amb un màxim de quatre alternatives per pregunta (dotze qüestions corresponen a la línia d'aigua, i sis a la línia de fangs). Per solucionar cadascuna d'aquestes qüestions, s'avaluen les alternatives proposades respecte a un conjunt de criteris triats de la llista inicial. Aplicant el procés de decisió multicriteri anomenat SMART (simple multiattribute rating technique), es combinen els resultats de les alternatives respecte a cada criteri, tenint en compte la importància de cada criteri per obtenir un sol valor per alternativa. Per quantificar els criteris referents a l'operació del procés i les de tipus econòmic s'han utilitzat els programes GPS-X i CapdetWorks respectivament. Pel que fa als criteris no quantificats mitjançant aquests programes, s'han resolt de manera qualitativa i
mitjançant manuals de disseny i també tenint en compte l'opinió d'experts en aquest camp. L'alternativa que obté un pes més elevat és la recomanada per al procés de decisió. El cas d'estudi finalitza un cop s'obté el disseny complet de l'EDAR. Per integrar tots aquests elements que hem esmentat i donar suport al desenvolupament del procés de decisió s'ha utilitzat el programa DRAMA (Design Rationale Management). A continuació, es fa una anàlisi comparativa entre l'EDAR que hi ha actualment al municipi de Granollers i l'EDAR resultat del cas d'estudi. Es descriu el diagrama de flux que conforma l'EDAR de Granollers i el diagrama de flux de l'EDAR resultat de l'estudi, se'n fa una anàlisi comparativa justificant cadascuna de les decisions preses en el cas d'estudi i, finalment, es fa una discussió de resultats on es reflecteixen els avantatges associats d'aplicar la metodologia de disseny conceptual proposada. Finalment, es presenten les conclusions de la tesi. Els principals resultats de la tesi es van publicar el 2002 a la revista internacional Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Research (N. Vidal, R. Bañares-Alcántara, I. Rodríguez-Roda i M. Poch: "Design of wastewater treatment plants using a conceptual design methodology", Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Research, 41 (20), pàg. 4993-5005) i la continuació de la línia de recerca al Laboratori d'Enginyeria Química i Ambiental de la UdG ha comportat la presentació del treball de recerca de Xavi Flores "Procés de decisió jeràrquic combinat amb anàlisi multicriteri per al suport al disseny conceptual de sistemes de fangs actius d'una estació depuradora d'aigües residuals" i la presentació dels resultats parcials al congrés internacional de la 9th IWA Conference on Design, Operation and Economics of Large Wastewater Treatment, que va tenir lloc el setembre passat a Praga ("Combining hierarchical decision process with multi-criteria analysis for conceptual design of WWTP", X. Flores, N. Vidal, A. Bonmatí, J. B. Copp i I. Rodríguez-Roda).
This thesis proposes a methodology for the conceptual design of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) via a combination of a hierarchical decision process and multicriteria decision analysis. We begin with a brief introduction into the main fields of study involved in this work: the design of chemical processes in general; the design of wastewater treatment plants in particular and multicriteria decision analysis as applied to environmental management. We go on to outline the objectives of the study and then describe our methodology as well as the computer-based support tools used. In order to evaluate and contrast our design methodology, we present a study case in which a conceptual design is developed for a WWTP which has the same requirements as the actual WWTP currently in operation in the town of Granollers. First, we present the initial information and then define the design objectives, as well as the set of criteria that will be used in order to evaluate the degree to which the objectives have been met.
The design objectives are of different types: environmental, technical, social and economical; the set of criteria, of which there are 33 in all, are also classified into these four categories. Each of the criteria has a specific weighting in terms of their importance in taking decisions. Next, we go through the whole decision process leading to the completion of the design of the WWTP. The decision process has been divided into two parts which are differentiated but at the same time, interconnected: the water line and the sludge line. The decision process involves a total of eighteen questions (twelve for the water line and six for the sludge line) with a maximum of four alternatives per question. In order to answer each question, the proposed alternatives are evaluated in relation to a set of criteria chosen from the initial list. Applying the multicriteria decision process known as SMART (simple multiattribute rating technique), the results for the alternatives with respect to each criteria are combined, bearing in mind the importance of each criteria, in order to get a single value for each alternative. To get the results for those alternatives relating to the operation of the process and those to do with economical factors, we used the GPS-X and CapdetWorks programmes, respectively. The criteria not quantified by means of these programmes were resolved by qualitative means and through the use of design manuals, in addition to taking expert opinion into account. The alternative that obtains the highest weighting is the one which is recommended by the decision process. The study case is completed once a complete design of the WWTP is obtained. In order to integrate all the elements we have mentioned, and to assist the development of the decision process, we employed the programme known as DRAMA (Design Rationale Management). We then go on to give a comparative analysis between the real WWTP in Granollers and the WWTP resulting from our study case. We describe and compare the flow diagrams in both cases, providing justification for each of the decisions taken in the study case and then discuss the results, reflecting on the advantages to be gained from using the methodology of conceptual design we propose. Finally, we present the conclusions of our thesis.
The main results of this thesis were published, in 2002, in the international magazine, Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Research (N. Vidal, R. Bañares-Alcántara, I. Rodríguez-Roda and M. Poch: "Design of wastewater treatment plants using a conceptual design methodology", Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Research, 41 (20), pages 4993-5005). Continuing work in this line of research at the Laboratori d'Enginyeria Química i Ambiental at the University of Girona has led to the research work by Xavi Flores, Procés de decisió jeràrquic combinat amb anàlisi multicriteri per al suport al disseny conceptual de sistemes de fangs actius d'una estació depuradora d'aigües residuals (A hierarchical decision process combined with multicriteria analysis to assist conceptual design of active sludge systems in a wastewater treatment plant) and the presentation of the preliminary results at the 9th IWA Conference on Design, Operation and Economics of Large Wastewater Treatment, which took place in September, 2003, in Prague ("Combining hierarchical decision process with multi-criteria analysis for conceptual design of WWTP", X. Flores, Núria Vidal, August Bonmatí, J. B. Copp and Ignasi Rodríguez-Roda).

La implementació de la Directiva Europea 91/271/CEE referent a tractament d'aigües residuals urbanes va promoure la construcció de noves instal·lacions al mateix temps que la introducció de noves tecnologies per tractar nutrients en àrees designades com a sensibles. Tant el disseny d'aquestes noves infraestructures com el redisseny de les ja existents es va portar a terme a partir d'aproximacions basades fonamentalment en objectius econòmics degut a la necessitat d'acabar les obres en un període de temps relativament curt. Aquests estudis estaven basats en coneixement heurístic o correlacions numèriques provinents de models determinístics simplificats. Així doncs, moltes de les estacions depuradores d'aigües residuals (EDARs) resultants van estar caracteritzades per una manca de robustesa i flexibilitat, poca controlabilitat, amb freqüents problemes microbiològics de separació de sòlids en el decantador secundari, elevats costos d'operació i eliminació parcial de nutrients allunyant-les de l'òptim de funcionament. Molts d'aquestes problemes van sorgir degut a un disseny inadequat, de manera que la comunitat científica es va adonar de la importància de les etapes inicials de disseny conceptual. Precisament per aquesta raó, els mètodes tradicionals de disseny han d'evolucionar cap a sistemes d'avaluació mes complexos, que tinguin en compte múltiples objectius, assegurant així un millor funcionament de la planta. Tot i la importància del disseny conceptual tenint en compte múltiples objectius, encara hi ha un buit important en la literatura científica tractant aquest camp d'investigació. L'objectiu que persegueix aquesta tesi és el de desenvolupar un mètode de disseny conceptual d'EDARs considerant múltiples objectius, de manera que serveixi d'eina de suport a la presa de decisions al seleccionar la millor alternativa entre diferents opcions de disseny. Aquest treball de recerca contribueix amb un mètode de disseny modular i evolutiu que combina diferent tècniques com: el procés de decisió jeràrquic, anàlisi multicriteri, optimació preliminar multiobjectiu basada en anàlisi de sensibilitat, tècniques d'extracció de coneixement i mineria de dades, anàlisi multivariant i anàlisi d'incertesa a partir de simulacions de Monte Carlo. Això s'ha aconseguit subdividint el mètode de disseny desenvolupat en aquesta tesis en quatre blocs principals: (1) generació jeràrquica i anàlisi multicriteri d'alternatives, (2) anàlisi de decisions crítiques, (3) anàlisi multivariant i (4) anàlisi d'incertesa. El primer dels blocs combina un procés de decisió jeràrquic amb anàlisi multicriteri. El procés de decisió jeràrquic subdivideix el disseny conceptual en una sèrie de qüestions mes fàcilment analitzables i avaluables mentre que l'anàlisi multicriteri permet la consideració de diferent objectius al mateix temps. D'aquesta manera es redueix el nombre d'alternatives a avaluar i fa que el futur disseny i operació de la planta estigui influenciat per aspectes ambientals, econòmics, tècnics i legals. Finalment aquest bloc inclou una anàlisi de sensibilitat dels pesos que proporciona informació de com varien les diferents alternatives al mateix temps que canvia la importància relativa del objectius de disseny.
El segon bloc engloba tècniques d'anàlisi de sensibilitat, optimització preliminar multiobjectiu i extracció de coneixement per donar suport al disseny conceptual d'EDAR, seleccionant la millor alternativa un cop s'han identificat decisions crítiques. Les decisions crítiques són aquelles en les que s'ha de seleccionar entre alternatives que compleixen de forma similar els objectius de disseny però amb diferents implicacions pel que respecte a la futura estructura i operació de la planta. Aquest tipus d'anàlisi proporciona una visió més àmplia de l'espai de disseny i permet identificar direccions desitjables (o indesitjables) cap on el procés de disseny pot derivar. El tercer bloc de la tesi proporciona l'anàlisi multivariant de les matrius multicriteri obtingudes durant l'avaluació de les alternatives de disseny. Específicament, les tècniques utilitzades en aquest treball de recerca engloben: 1) anàlisi de conglomerats, 2) anàlisi de components principals/anàlisi factorial i 3) anàlisi discriminant. Com a resultat és possible un millor accés a les dades per realitzar la selecció de les alternatives, proporcionant més informació per a una avaluació mes efectiva, i finalment incrementant el coneixement del procés d'avaluació de les alternatives de disseny generades. En el quart i últim bloc desenvolupat en aquesta tesi, les diferents alternatives de disseny són avaluades amb incertesa. L'objectiu d'aquest bloc és el d'estudiar el canvi en la presa de decisions quan una alternativa és avaluada incloent o no incertesa en els paràmetres dels models que descriuen el seu comportament. La incertesa en el paràmetres del model s'introdueix a partir de funcions de probabilitat. Desprès es porten a terme simulacions Monte Carlo, on d'aquestes distribucions se n'extrauen números aleatoris que es subsisteixen pels paràmetres del model i permeten estudiar com la incertesa es propaga a través del model. Així és possible analitzar la variació en l'acompliment global dels objectius de disseny per a cada una de les alternatives, quines són les contribucions en aquesta variació que hi tenen els aspectes ambientals, legals, econòmics i tècnics, i finalment el canvi en la selecció d'alternatives quan hi ha una variació de la importància relativa dels objectius de disseny. En comparació amb les aproximacions tradicionals de disseny, el mètode desenvolupat en aquesta tesi adreça problemes de disseny/redisseny tenint en compte múltiples objectius i múltiples criteris. Al mateix temps, el procés de presa de decisions mostra de forma objectiva, transparent i sistemàtica el perquè una alternativa és seleccionada en front de les altres, proporcionant l'opció que més bé acompleix els objectius marcats, mostrant els punts forts i febles, les principals correlacions entre objectius i alternatives, i finalment tenint en compte la possible incertesa inherent en els paràmetres del model que es fan servir durant les anàlisis. Les possibilitats del mètode desenvolupat es demostren en aquesta tesi a partir de diferents casos d'estudi: selecció del tipus d'eliminació biològica de nitrogen (cas d'estudi # 1), optimització d'una estratègia de control (cas d'estudi # 2), redisseny d'una planta per aconseguir eliminació simultània de carboni, nitrogen i fòsfor (cas d'estudi # 3) i finalment anàlisi d'estratègies control a nivell de planta (casos d'estudi # 4 i # 5).
The implementation of EU Directive 91/271/EEC concerning urban wastewater treatment promoted the construction of new facilities and the introduction of nutrient removal technologies in areas designated as sensitive. The need to build at a rapid pace imposed economically sound approaches for the design of the new infrastructures and the retrofit of the existing ones. These studies relied exclusively on the use of heuristic knowledge and numerical correlations generated from simplified activated sludge models. Hence, some of the resulting wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) were characterized by a lack of robustness and flexibility, bad controller performance, frequent microbiology-related solids separation problems in the secondary settler, high operating and maintenance costs and/or partial nutrient removal, which made their performance far from optimal. Most of these problems arose because of inadequate design, making the scientific community aware of the crucial importance of the conceptual design stage. Thus, these traditional design approaches should turn into more complex assessment methods in order to conduct integrated assessments taking into account a multiplicity of objectives an hence ensuring a correct plant performance. Despite the importance of this fact only a few methods in the literature addressed the systematic evaluation of conceptual WWTP design alternatives using multiple objectives. Yet, the decisions made during this stage are of paramount importance in determining the future plant structure and operation. The main objective pursued in this thesis targets the development of a systematic conceptual design method for WWTP using multiple objectives, which supports decision making when selecting the most desirable option amongst several generated alternatives. This research work contributes with a modular and evolutionary approach combining techniques from different disciplines such as: a hierarchical decision approach, multicriteria decision analysis, preliminary multiobjective optimization using sensitivity functions, knowledge extraction and data mining techniques, multivariate statistical techniques and uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. This is accomplished by dividing the design method into 4 different blocks: (1) hierarchical generation and multicriteria evaluation of the design alternatives, (2) analysis of critical decisions, (3) multivariate analysis and, finally, (4) uncertainty analysis. The first block of the proposed method, supports the conceptual design of WWTP combining a hierarchical decision approach with multicriteria analysis. The hierarchical decision approach breaks down the conceptual design into a number of issues that are easier to analyze and to evaluate while the multicriteria analysis allows the inclusion of different objectives at the same time. Hence, the number of alternatives to evaluate is reduced while the future WWTP design and operation is greatly influenced by environmental, technical, economical and legal aspects. Also, the inclusion of a sensitivity analysis facilitates the study of the variation of the generated alternatives with respect to the relative importance of the objectives. The second block, analysis of critical decisions, is tackled with sensitivity analysis, preliminary multiobjective optimization and knowledge extraction to assist the designer during the selection of the best alternative amongst the most promising alternatives i.e. options with a similar overall degree of satisfaction of the design objectives but with completely different implications for the future plant design and operation. The analysis provides a wider picture of the possible design space and allows the identification of desirable (or undesirable) WWTP design directions in advance.
The third block of the proposed method, involves the application of multivariate statistical techniques to mine the complex multicriteria matrixes obtained during the evaluation of WWTP alternatives. Specifically, the techniques used in this research work are i) cluster analysis, ii) principal component/factor analysis, and iii) discriminant analysis. As a result, there is a significant improvement in the accessibility of the information needed for effective evaluation of WWTP alternatives, yielding more knowledge than the current evaluation methods to finally enhance the comprehension of the whole evaluation process. In the fourth and last block, uncertainty analysis of the different alternatives is further applied. The objective of this tool is to support the decision making when uncertainty on the model parameters used to carry out the analysis of the WWTP alternatives is either included or not. The uncertainty in the model parameters is introduced, i.e input uncertainty, characterising it by probability distributions. Next, Monte Carlo simulations are run to see how those input uncertainties are propagated through the model and affect the different outcomes. Thus, it is possible to study the variation of the overall degree of satisfaction of the design objectives, the contributions of the different objectives in the overall variance to finally analyze the influence of the relative importance of the design objectives during the selection of the alternatives. Thus, in comparison with the traditional approaches the conceptual design method developed in this thesis addresses design/redesign problems with respect to multiple objectives and multiple performance measures. Also, it includes a more reliable decision procedure that shows in a systematic, objective and transparent fashion the rationale way a certain alternative is selected and not the others. The decision procedure provides to the designer/decision maker with the alternative that best fulfils the defined objectives, showing its main advantages and weaknesses, the different correlations between the alternatives and evaluation criteria and dealing with the uncertainty prevailing in some of the model parameters used during the analysis. A number of case studies, selection of biological nitrogen removal process (case study #1), optimization of the setpoints in two control loops (case study #2), redesign to achieve simultaneous organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus removal (case study #3) and evaluation of control strategies at plant wide level (case studies #4 and #5), are used to demonstrate the capabilities of the conceptual design method.

Airport benchmarking depends on airport operational performance and efficiency indicators, which are important issues for business, operational management, regulatory agencies, airlines and passengers. There are several sets of single and complex indicators to evaluate airports efficiency as well as several techniques to benchmark such infrastructures. The general aim of this work is the development of airport performance and efficiency predictive models using robust but flexible methodologies and incorporating simultaneously traditional indicators (number of movements and passengers, tons of cargo, number of runways and stands, area of terminals both of passenger and cargo) as well as new constraints as emerging situations and/or sudden natural phenomenon (ramp accidents and incidents, and volcano ashes and weather constraints, respectively). Firstly this work shows the efficiency evaluation of either a set of airports or the same airport along several years and under several constraints based on two multidimensional tools, Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA, particularly through Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique - MACBETH) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Secondly this work compares the obtained results using both MACBETH and DEA evidencing pros and cons of each multidimensional tool and searching for the best conditions to apply one or the other within airport management decision processes.

Le doctorat impliqués la recherche dans le domaine des représentations visuelles assistées par des technologies sémantiques et des ontologies afin de soutenir les décisions et les procédures d'élaboration des politiques, dans le cadre de la recherche et des systèmes d'information académique. Les visualisations seront également prises en charge par l'exploration de données et les processus d'extraction de connaissances dans l'environnement de données liées. Pour élaborer, les techniques d'analyse visuelle seront utilisées pour l'organisation des visualisations afin de présenter l'information de manière à utiliser les capacités perceptuelles humaines et aideront éventuellement les procédures de prise de décision et de prise de décision. En outre, la représentation visuelle et, par conséquent, les processus décisionnels et décisionnels seront améliorés au moyen des technologies sémantiques basées sur des modèles conceptuels sous forme d'ontologies. Ainsi, l'objectif principal de la thèse de doctorat proposée consiste en la combinaison des technologies sémantiques clés et des techniques de visualisation interactive basées principalement sur la perception du graphique afin de rendre les systèmes de prise de décision plus efficaces. Le domaine de la demande sera le système de recherche et d'information académique
The dissertation herein involves research in the field of the visual representations aided by semantic technologies and ontologies in order to support decisions and policy making procedures, in the framework of research and academic information systems. The visualizations will be also supported by data mining and knowledge extraction processes in the linked data environment. To elaborate, visual analytics’ techniques will be employed for the organization of the visualizations in order to present the information in such a way that will utilize the human perceptual abilities and that will eventually assist the decision support and policy making procedures. Furthermore, the visual representation and consequently the decision and policy making processes will be ameliorated by the means of the semantic technologies based on conceptual models in the form of ontologies. Thus, the main objective of the proposed doctoral thesis consists the combination of the key semantic technologies with interactive visualisations techniques based mainly on graph’s perception in order to make decision support systems more effective. The application field will be the research and academic information systems

Effects of functioning transportation infrastructure are receiving more and more environmental and social concern nowadays. Nevertheless, preliminary corridor plans are usually developed on the basis of technical and economic criteria exclusively. By the time of environmental impact assessment (EIA), which succeeds, relocation is practically impossible and only preventative measures can be applied.

This paper proposes a GIS-based method of delimiting motorway corridor and integrating social, environmental and economic factors into the early stages of planning. Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques are used to assess all possible alternatives. GIS-held weighted shortest path algorithm enables to locate the corridor. The evaluation criteria are exemplary. They include nature conservation, buildings, forests and agricultural resources, and soils. Resulting evaluation surface is divided into a grid of cells, which are assigned suitability scores derived from all evaluation criteria. Subsequently, a set of adjacent cells connecting two pre-specified points is traced by the least-cost path algorithm. The best alternative has a lowest total value of suitability scores.

As a result, the proposed motorway corridor is routed from origin to destination. It is afterwards compared with an alternative derived by traditional planning procedures. Concluding remarks are that the location criteria need to be adjusted to meet construction

requirements as well as analysis process to be automated. Nevertheless, the geographic information system and the embedded shortest path algorithm proved to be well suited for preliminary corridor location analysis. Future research directions are sketched.

Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Centro Tecnologico
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O propósito desta dissertação é descrever qualitativamente algumas espécies de riscos capazes de comprometer a aceitabilidade dos projetos de investimentos normalmente desejados pelas empresas, além de propor uma metodologia de decisão coletiva e multicriterial que os leve em consideração na análise de viabilidade, a partir da apreciação subjetiva dos diversos participantes do processo decisório. Inicialmente são discutidos os fundamentos básicos dos métodos tradicionais de avaliação quantitativa do risco em investimentos e apontadas suas importâncias e limitações. A seguir, é sugerido a inclusão de outros critérios de desejabilidade na análise para que os projetos não sejam avaliados exclusivamente por fatores econômico-financeiros. São mostrados também o processo de geração destes novos fatores, seus correspondentes critérios de desejabilidade e alguns métodos de análise multicriteriais. Posteriormente é feito um estudo qualitativo dos riscos que normalmente ameaçam alguns tipos de projetos, de grande utilidade para os tomadores de decisão na fixação dos novos fatores de avaliação. Finalmente são apresentados os fundamentos da metodologia proposta, abordando os processos de escolha dos vários critérios de desejabilidade, de formação das equipes que os julgarão e de avaliação das alternativas de investimentos disponíveis

Orientador: Rubens A. C. Lamparelli
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Agricola
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Resumo: Apesar do milho "safrinha" já representar uma grande proporção do milho produzido no Brasil e ter tido um significativo aumento de produtividade nos últimos anos, esta cultura ainda é relacionada ao baixo uso de tecnologia e à baixa produtividade. A primeira etapa deste estudo analisa as estatísticas e as relações entre os seguintes itens de verificação da qualidade das lavouras: data de semeadura; cobertura morta do solo; espaçamento das entrelinhas; estande e população de plantas; plantas problema; espaços entreplantas; infestação de ervas daninhas e perdas de colheita. A segunda etapa analisou a correlação espacial destas variáveis entre os diferentes talhões amostrados e mapeou a sua distribuição através das ferramentas da geoestatística na região do Médio Paranapanema. Na terceira etapa as variáveis foram utilizadas como critérios em uma avaliação multicriterial gerando um mapa de qualidade das lavouras. O método de polígonos de Thiessen foi utilizado no desagrupamento das estatísticas básicas (média, variância, assimetria), minimizando os problemas originados pela não aleatoriedade espacial da amostragem. O sistema de Plantio Direto (PD) foi discriminado estatisticamente do sistema de Preparo Convencional (PC) através de diversas variáveis, mas apenas a cobertura morta discriminou o PD da Semeadura na Palha de Inverno (SPi) e do PC. Oitenta e cinco por cento dos talhões avaliados tinham estande dentro dos limites aceitáveis e boa distribuição de plantas. Sessenta por cento dos itens de verificação apresentaram continuidade espacial entre talhões, o que permitiu o mapeamento através de krigagem ordinária. As áreas não ocupadas com milho foram retiradas da análise espacial utilizando-se uma máscara do uso da terra produzida pela classificação de imagens de satélite. A análise multicriterial (MCE) combinou o processo de análise hierárquica (AHP), para dar pesos aos critérios, e conjuntos fuzzy, para normalizar os critérios, possibilitando a avaliação e o mapeamento da qualidade das lavouras de milho "safrinha" em uma área de 1.577 km2. Palavras chaves: sistemas de preparo de solo; auditoria de qualidade; polígonos de Thiessen; sistemas de suporte a decisão; processo de análise hierárquica (AHP)
Abstract: Even though off-season or winter maize ("safrinha") today accounts for a large fraction of Brazilian maize production, and has displayed a significant increase in yield during the past few years, this crop is still associated with low technology and low yield. The first part of this study analyzes the statistics and relations among several variables of agricultural quality (items of quality verification): planting date; crop mulch cover; row spacing; plant stand and population; problem plants; plant spacing; weed infestation; harvest losses. The second part analyzes the spatial correlation of these variables among different plots sampled and maps the distribution by using spatial statistical tools in the Middle Paranapanema River Valley. In the third part, the variables were used as criteria in a multicriteria evaluation (MCE) that created an agricultural quality maps. Thiessen polygons were used to declustering the basic statistics (mean, variance, coefficient of skewness), minimizing problems introduced by non-random spatial sampling. No-tillage cultivation was statistically discriminated from conventional tillage by several variables, but only crop mulch cover separated no-tillage from winter crop mulch cultivation and conventional tillage. Eighty-five percent of plots studied had stands within acceptable limits and displayed good distribution of plants. Sixty percent of the variables showed spatial continuity among the plots, which permitted mapping by use ordinary kriging. Areas not planted in maize were removed from the spatial analysis using a mask of land use produced by a classification of satellite imagery. Multicriteria evaluation (MCE) combined the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to weight the criteria, and fuzzy sets were used to normalize the criteria, permitting the evaluation and mapping of agricultural quality of off-season ¿safrinha¿ maize in an area of 1,577 km2. Index terms: tillage systems; quality audit; Thiessen polygons; decision making; analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Doutorado
Planejamento e Desenvolvimento Rural Sustentável
Doutor em Engenharia Agrícola

This study is conducted with the aims to develop a new ranking method for multi-criteria decision making problem with conflicting criteria. Such a problem has a set of Pareto solutions, where the act of improving a value of one solution will result in depreciating some of the others. Thus, in this type of problem, there is no unique solution. However, out of many available options, the Decision Maker eventually has to choose only one solution. With this problem as the motivation, the current study develops a compromise ranking algorithm, namely a trade-off ranking method. The trade-off ranking method able to give a trade-off solution with the least compromise compared to other choices as the best solution. The properties of the algorithm are studied in the thesis on several test cases. The proposed method is compared against several multi-criteria decision making methods with ranking based on the distance measure, which are the TOPSIS, relative distance and VIKOR. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty test are carried out to examine the methods robustness. A critical criteria analysis is also done to test for the most critical criterion in a multi-criteria problem. The decision making method is considered further in a fuzzy environment problem where the fuzzy trade-off ranking is developed and compared against existing fuzzy decision making methods.

There are a number of decision making problems in which Geographical Information System (GIS) has employed to organize and facilitate the procedure of analyzing the problem. These GIS-based decision problems which typically include a number of different criteria and alternatives are generally analyzed by Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA).Different locations within a geographical area represent the alternatives by which the overall goal of the project is achieved. The quality of achieving the goal is evaluated by a set of criteria which should be considered in the work. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) which is a powerful method of MCDA generally can organize spatial problems and decides which alternatives are most suitable for the defined problems. However due to some intrinsic uncertainty in the method, a number of authors suggest fuzzifying the method while others are against fuzzification of the AHP.

The debate over fuzzifying AHP is going on and attempt for finding that was mostly in theory, and little, if any; practical comparison between the AHP and fuzzified AHP has done. This work presents a practical comparison of AHP and fuzzy AHP in a GIS-based problem, case study, for locating a dam in Costa Rica, considering different criteria. In order to perform the AHP and fuzzy AHP in the GIS-based problem and calculating weights of the criteria by the methods, some computer codes have written and developed in MATLAB.

The comparisons between the AHP and fuzzy AHP methods are done on result weights and on the result final maps. The comparison between the weights is repeated on different levels of uncertainty in fuzzy AHP then all the results are compared with the result of AHP method. Also this study for checking the effect of fuzzification on results is suggested Chi-Square test as a suitable tool.

Comparisons between the resulting weights of the AHP and fuzzy AHP methods show some differences between the methods. Furthermore, the Chi-Square test shows that the higher level of uncertainty in the fuzzy AHP, the greater the difference in results between the AHP and fuzzy AHP methods.

This paper proposes an analytic framework for the balancing or weighing test, as an instance of a Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), like the ones used in disciplines like management or operations research. The change in perspective allows for an enrichment of our comprehension concerning the test, and permits an increment in its pretentions of rationality in the process of solving conflicts, in which is necessary to arrive to an optimal solution. In the first section we propose a conceptual framework concerning the development of MCDA models. Then we show three models of balancing tests proposed in the specialized literature, one of which is the model proposed by Robert Alexy. Finally, departing from a comparison between constitutional balancing and the reasonableness test, used by Indecopi, we present a complex model of balancing, which counts with two perspectives: one synchronic, and the other diachronic.
El presente artículo propone un análisis del test de ponderación como una caso particular de los exámenes o test de decisión multicriterio (MCDA) desarrollados en otras disciplinas como la gestión y la investigación de operaciones. Este cambio de perspectiva permite enriquecer nuestra comprensión de dicho test, e incrementar sus pretensiones de racionalidad para resolver conflictos en los que se debe arribar a una solución óptima. En la primera parte se plantea un marco teórico sobre el desarrollo de los análisis de toma de decisiones multicriterio. A continuación se analizan las interrelaciones entre tres modelos ponderativos que se han propuesto en la literatura especializada, entre los que se encuentra el de Robert Alexy. Finalmente, a partir de una comparación entre la ponderación constitucional y el examen de razonabilidad de una medida, empleado por Indecopi, se presenta un modelo complejo de toma de decisiones en la ponderación. Dicho modelo cuenta con una perspectiva diacrónica y sincrónica de análisis.

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A urbanização altera significativamente os processos de escoamento natural da bacia hidrográfica, com aumento do volume das águas pluviais escoadas superficialmente, incremento das vazões de pico dos corpos hídricos, degradação da qualidade da água e geração de sedimentos. Neste contexto, a gestão das águas pluviais surge como uma alternativa para resolução de conflitos relativos a quantidade/qualidade destes recursos (conflitos de primeira ordem). No entanto, devido essa gestão exigir a participação de vários setores da sociedade, pode vir a gerar conflitos devido à falta/inadequação do arranjo institucional responsável por essa gestão (conflitos de segunda ordem). Diante desta problemática, é possível observar a importância exercida pelo contexto legal, institucional e socioeconômico e da visão global do sistema envolvido para a tomada de decisão. Esta tese, portanto, concebe uma metodologia para apoio à decisão na gestão das águas pluviais urbanas combinando métodos multicriterial e multidecisor, a qual se constitui em quatro etapas: (i) investigação dos parâmetros iniciais; (ii) avaliação dos métodos multicriteriais AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) e o PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations) (iv) avaliação do método multidecisor COPELAND simulando a gestão participativa com a implantação do comitê de rio urbano; (iv) obtenção do subconjunto de alternativas potenciais como resultado final da aplicação do modelo. A metodologia foi aplicada na sub-bacia do canal da Sanbra, que é um dos contribuintes do rio Jiquiá situado em Recife-PE. Nesse sentido, foi avaliado a seleção da melhor técnica compensatória para este riacho considerando aspectos ambientais, sociais, econômicos e hidráulicos. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que a metodologia desenvolvida pode apoiar a tomada de decisão na gestão das águas pluviais, de modo a consubstanciar resultados mais satisfatórios dessa realidade, seja através do entendimento e ampliação da gestão participativa, quanto no aperfeiçoamento técnico dos tomadores de decisão.
Urbanization significantly alters the processes of natural drainage of the river basin, increasing the volume of rainwater drained superficially, increasing peak flows of water bodies, degradation of water quality and sediment generation. In this context, rainwater management appears as an alternative for resolving conflicts regarding the quantity / quality of these resources (first order conflicts). However, because this management requires the participation of several sectors of society, it can generate conflicts due to the lack / inadequacy of the institutional arrangement responsible for this management (second order conflicts). Faced with this problem, it is possible to observe the importance exerted by the legal, institutional and socioeconomic context and the global vision of the system involved for the decision making.This thesis, therefore, devises a methodology for decision support in urban stormwater management combining multicriterial and multidecisor methods, which consists of four steps: (i) investigation of the initial parameters; (Ii) evaluation of the multi-criteria methods AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations) (iv) evaluation of the COPELAND multidecisor method simulating participatory management with the implementation of the urban river committee; (Iv) obtaining the subset of potential alternatives as a final result of the application of the model. The methodology was applied in the sub-basin of the Sanbra channel, which is one of the contributors of the Jiquiá river situated in Recife-PE. In this sense, it was evaluated the selection of the best compensatory technique for this stream considering environmental, social, economic and hydraulic aspects. The obtained results demonstrated that the developed methodology can support the decision making in rainwater management, in order to substantiate more satisfactory results of this reality, be it through the understanding and expansion of the participatory management, as well as in the technical improvement of the decision makers.

The performance of the century-old irrigation system of Pakistan (i.e. warabandi) has been evaluated using socio-economic data gathered by the author in multiple farmers?? surveys (n=278) conducted in Indus Basin of Pakistan. In the surveyed regions, the warabandi system was performing poorly. In-built rigidity in water allocations was found as main reason behind its poor performance. The results from the farmers?? surveys also revealed that the objective of increasing irrigation water productivity would never be attained under the warabandi arrangements. Hence, a completely new concept that could replace the warabandi system and improve the productivity of limited irrigation water should be introduced. My aim was to find a better way to allocate the scarce water resource between farmers. In this study, I have introduced a new concept for determining water allocations among the farmers, which is based on a multicriterion decision making (MCDM) approach. The consideration of multiple criteria in irrigation water allocations would improve irrigation water productivity. Upon an extensive survey of well-known MCDM methods, I concluded that all previously existing MCDM methods were using subjective inputs, usually from a single modeller, to establish priorities of alternatives and therefore, a predetermined solution could easily be obtained. I have developed an approach based on conjoint analysis which removes that subjectivity from the chosen MCDM method (i.e. ELECTRE). Interval scales and relative importance criteria weights, two usually subjective inputs in ELECTRE, are objectively estimated from the conjoint analysis study. For that purpose, the author designed a conjoint questionnaire and administered it to 62 farmer respondents in face-to-face interviews. Conjoint analysis, which does not appear to have been previously used in water resources or allocation studies, is a method for creating the interval scales and the relative criteria weights objectively from the respondents?? judgements on the importance of conjoint objects. The objective estimation of these two important factors is a completely new development which can assist in the unbiased determination of the best division or allocation of scarce water resources between farmers. The approach is applied, as a demonstration, to a region with nine distributary watercourses to determine which of the distributaries should have the highest priority for allocation of the regional water.

The research presented in this Thesis is primarily concerned with the field of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) - specifically, the business applications of the technology. The empirical problem addressed is the selection of branch banks as candidates for closure using the network of branch banks of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in the Sydney metropolitan region as the case study. Decisions to close branches are made by the Bank on the basis of performance indicators that are essentially financial. In this research, however, an alternative approach is adopted: the problem is addressed using a set of spatial criteria. Following the deregulation of the finance industry in the 1980's and the rapid introduction of new electronic channels for delivering financial services, the major banking institutions have been engaged in a process of reorganising their networks of branch banks. The most visible manifestation of this has been the ongoing and widespread closure of branches. Selecting branch banks for closure is a typical example of a complex semi-structured multi-dimensional, multi-criteria, decision-making problem. It has been well documented in previous research that Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) models are the most appropriate ones for solving problems in this particular domain. The identification of branches for closure is also characterised by a significant spatial dimension. Decisions are based on a consideration of a number of geographical criteria and various forms of spatial analysis may be involved. An appropriate technology to assist with solving decision-making problems with a significant spatial dimension is a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS). Most SDSS have been based on the integration of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology with analytical models that are proven to be best suited to specific decision-making problems and this is the approach adopted in this research. The prototype MCBC-SDSS (Multi-Criteria Branch Closure SDSS) developed here is based on the integration through the loose coupling of the ArcView GIS software with the Criterium DecisionPlus (CDP) software, which contains the suite of non-spatial analytical models that provide the analytical capability for solving multi-criteria problems. ArcView GIS is used as the engine that drives the system and to provide the analytical and display facilities to support the spatial data involved. Two MCDM models from the CDP software are used to support the decision-making analysis - the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART). The integration of GIS with the MCDM models is based on a considerable amount of software enhancement, interface development, and computer programming. The development of the integrated system is designed to create an intelligent and user-friendly SDSS, the application of which, from the user's perspective, is a seamless operation. The success of the MCBC-SDSS is demonstrated by its application to identify candidates for closure among the 197 branches of the CBA in the Sydney metropolitan area in 2000 - the year when the building of the database for the research had been completed. The analysis is based purely on spatial considerations that have been gleaned from a major review of the literature that previous researchers have identified as affecting branch viability and performance. A set of 17 spatial variables was used as the criteria in the MCDM models. The criteria are organised in two blocks: the first includes 9 criteria relating to the characteristics of demand for branch service in the branch trade areas ('catchment area' specific criteria) while the second includes 8 criteria relating to aspects of supply provided by the existing branches in their location ('location specific' criteria). Using the developed approach, the MCBC-SDSS has been used directly to compare alternatives against criteria, not only spatial based but also financial ones, thus providing a basis for identifying the best choices regarding branch closure. The steps in the preparation of the data and the iterative procedure for implementing the MCDM models are explained and illustrated. This involves building the initial evaluation matrix, normalising the raw criteria scores, assigning weights to the criteria, and calculating priorities. Based on these, the AHP and SMART models then calculate a decision score for each branch that is used as the basis for creating the preference ranking of the branches. In this, branches with a high rank score based on the combined weighted contribution of the 17 criteria are considered to be operationally viable. On the other hand, branches with the lowest rank scores are considered as potential candidates for closure. The preference rankings generated by the models have been tested to examine their robustness in terms of the validity of criteria and their weights used in the decision analysis. Sensitivity analysis has been conducted, the results of which show that the preference rankings are stable. Different approaches have been used to validate the initial criteria, and analyse their contribution to the ranking of branch banks for closure. These help identify critical spatial variables among the 17 initial criteria selected, and suggest that some of the criteria initially selected could be deleted from the criteria list used to generate the preference rankings without substantially affecting the results. The reasonableness of the resulting preference ranking has been further demonstrated from analyses based on changing criteria weights and alternatives. The research successfully demonstrates one of the ways of enhancing the functionality of a GIS through its integration with non-spatial analytical models to develop a SDSS to aid solving decision-making problems in the selected domain. Given that to date there has been relatively few applications of SDSS similar to that developed in this research to real world decision-making problems, the procedure adopted makes it suitable for decision-making in a range of other service business applications characterised by a significant spatial dimension and multiple outlets including shopping centres, motor car dealerships, restaurant and supermarket chains. Instead of just providing solutions, however, the SDSS-based analysis in this research can better be thought of as adding value to spatial data that forms an important source of information required by decision-makers, providing insight about the situation, uncertainty, objectives, and trade-offs involved in reaching decisions, and being capable of generating alternative scenarios based on different inputs to the models that may be used to identify recommended courses of action. It can lead to better and more effective decision-making in institutions involving multi-outlet retail and service businesses and hence enables both integrated data analysis and modelling while taking multiple criteria and decision-makers' preferences into consideration.

The growing need for reducing the negative impacts of climate change and ensuring a constant and environmentally friendly energy supply, led the way to the exploitation of renewable energy sources. Canada has already acknowledged this trend by incorporating more power from renewables on its energy mix. Similarly, Nova Scotia has started an ambitious energy program in which the substitution of most of the fossil fuels by wind energy, will play a significant factor. The purpose of this research is to investigate all suitable locations for wind energy development in the province of Nova Scotia, under the scope of minimizing environmental impacts, increasing social acceptance and maximizing energy production. This spatial analysis is performed through the combination of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The analysis of the province was based on the preferences of wind experts and administration authorities, which formed the weights assigned on eight (8) evaluation criteria. The extract of the relative weights was succeeded by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while their spatial dimensions were expressed by GIS software. The above procedure was possible through the application of a methodology where exclusion areas were found on the first place and the remaining areas were assessed on their level of suitability. The implementation of the GIS-MCDA methodological framework indicates that, despite the exclusion of a significant part of the province, there is still enough space to develop wind energy. The applied methodology and relevant results could be used as a Decision-Making tool by planning authorities, wind developers, and stakeholders.

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Over time, many studies have been conducted with the aim of understanding the differences between entrepreneurial and non-entrepreneurial people and especially what leads people to have such different attitudes. However, such studies generally focus on isolated features which can be understood by constructs, without the effective capacity of developers to build profiles. Another important aspect is that most studies on entrepreneurship, for social and historical reasons, focus on male entrepreneurship only. On this last point, while there are many studies already undertaken and in progress with the aim of correcting this distortion in the study of entrepreneurship, to include and highlight the feminine side of entrepreneurship, there is still much to do. This study, therefore, has several objectives and courses of action: focus on female entrepreneurship, selecting the most important constructs of entrepreneurship from a feminine and ultimately build a successful entrepreneurial profile. That is, to build a profile in which the various constructs may relate to each other, and are organized hierarchically in terms of importance. Therefore, this study had the support of the Center for Women Entrepreneurs (NME) of the Commercial and Industrial Association of Santo André, where the study was conducted, being this a group of innovative and pioneering women in the organization of female entrepreneurship in the State of São Paul and active in the ABC Paulista. To achieve the defined objectives, this study had several phases as the initial interview, where relevant constructs were identified and contrast with the literature - bibliometric research with the aim of amalgamating the vision of NME with what has been previously published. Innovatively, it was attempted to use a technique from the family of Multicriteria Decision Analysis, PAPRIKA (Potentially all pairwise rankings of all possible alternatives), as part of the interviews and questionnaires in order to be able to organize the hierarchical relationships between constructs, which proved adequate and compatible with the original purpose. Finally, using the Paprika and the interviews, it was possible to construct a hierarchically related final profile of which are most important in successful female entrepreneur constructs, according to the vision of a group of entrepreneurial women
Ao longo do tempo, diversos estudos foram realizados com a intenção de compreender as diferenças entre pessoas empreendedoras e não empreendedoras e, especialmente, o que leva tais pessoas a terem atitudes. No entanto tais estudos geralmente focam características isoladas, que podem ser compreendidas por meio de construtos, sem a capacidade efetiva de construir perfis empreendedores. Outro aspecto importante é que a maioria dos estudos sobre o empreendedorismo, por características sociais e históricas, tem como foco o empreendedor masculino. Neste último aspecto, por mais que haja muitos estudos já realizados e em curso com o objetivo de corrigir esta distorção no estudo do empreendedorismo, ao incluir e evidenciar a parte feminina do empreendedorismo, ainda há muito a fazer. Este estudo, portanto, tem vários objetivos e cursos de ação: enfocar o empreendedorismo feminino, selecionar os construtos de empreendedorismo mais importantes sob a ótica feminina e, finalmente, construir um perfil empreendedor. Isto é, construir um perfil em que os diversos construtos se relacionam entre si e se organizam hierarquicamente em termos de importância. Para tanto, este estudo contou com o apoio do Núcleo de Mulheres Empreendedoras (NME) da Associação Comercial e Industrial de Santo André, onde o estudo foi realizado, sendo este um grupo de mulheres inovadoras e pioneiras na organização do empreendedorismo feminino no Estado de São Paulo e atuantes no ABC Paulista. Para conseguir os objetivos definidos, este estudo contou com várias fases como a entrevista inicial, onde foram identificados construtos relevantes e o contraste com a literatura - pesquisa bibliométrica com o objetivo de amalgamar a visão do NME com o que já foi previamente publicado. De forma inovadora, buscou-se utilizar uma técnica da família da Análise de Decisão Multicritério, a PAPRIKA (sigla inglesa para Ranqueamento Pareado Potencial de todas as Alternativas Possíveis), como parte das entrevistas e questionários, de modo a ser possível organizar as relações hierárquicas entre os construtos, que se mostrou adequado e compatível com o propósito original. Finalmente, utilizando-se da PAPRIKA e das entrevistas, foi possível construir um perfil final relacionado hierarquicamente de quais construtos são mais importantes no sucesso empreendedor feminino, de acordo com a visão de um grupo de mulheres empreendedoras.

O presente trabalho propõe um modelo multicriterial para avaliação de alternativas de investimentos, o qual foi testado em um estudo de caso conduzido em uma concessionária de distribuição de energia elétrica com o objetivo de traduzir a multiplicidade de variáveis quantitativas e qualitativas que influenciam na tomada de decisão investimentos. Inicialmente, buscou-se identificar (a) quais métodos e técnicas quantitativas tradicionais (VPL – valor presente líquido; IL – índice de lucratividade; TIR – taxa interna de retorno; MTIR – taxa interna de retorno modificada; payback simples e descontado) são mais adequados ao contexto decisório da concessionária; e (b) que variáveis qualitativas exercem influência na decisão de investir, para que fossem incorporadas neste contexto. Em seguida, à luz do Método MAUT (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory), desenvolveu-se um modelo multicritério suportado por planilhas eletrônicas para auxiliar no processo de avaliação e seleção de alternativas de investimentos, através da modelagem das preferências dos decisores quanto à importância relativa de um critério em relação a outro. O modelo foi aplicado ao universo dos projetos de investimentos submetidos à avaliação no orçamento de 2006, no qual as recomendações atuais mostraram-se aderentes às decisões tomadas no passado, evidenciando a adequação do método em representar o contexto decisório da companhia, como para subsidiar as próximas discussões de investimentos. Do ponto de vista organizacional e acadêmico, o estudo contribui no sentido de aproximar a teoria da prática no processo de tomada de decisões corporativas.
This paper proposes a multicriteria model to evaluate capital investment alternatives, which was tested in a case study carried out at an electricity distribution concessionaire which intented to decode quantitative and qualitative variables that influence capital investment decision. The aim was to identify (a) which traditional quantitative methods and techniques: NPV (Net Present Value); IL (Profitability Rate); IRR (Internal Rate of Return); MIRR (Modified Internal Rate of Return) and payback period are most proper to decision making context of the concessionaire; and (b) which qualitative variables influence in capital investment decision so that these methods were added to that context. Based on MAUT (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory) a multicriteria methodology was developed based on spread sheets to help analyze and select capital investment alternatives. That could be accomplished by modelling decision makers preferences concerning the relative importance of one criterium over the other. This model was applied to all the investment projects submitted to evaluation in the 2006 budget, where the current recommendations showed consonant with decisions previously made. The used model proved suitable to represent the company decision context as well as proper to subside the next capital investment discussions. From an organizational and academic point of view, present paper approaches theoretical recommendation to corporate decision making practice.

The history of the advancement of the agricultural frontier in Brazil has been closely related to environmental losses. Although environmental losses are sometimes inevitable in the context of agricultural expansion, they should always be minimized. This study seeks to avoid the past pattern of development by proposing a more sustainable way of expanding agriculture. The research tests whether it is possible to expand the cultivation of food and fuel crops in Brazil without compromising natural ecosystems. Brazil has a great agricultural potential considering the significant amount of lands that is suitable for agriculture with a favorable climate and topography. To supply the domestic agricultural market and for Brazil to take on a global food and biofuel export leadership position, actions should be taken to plan for this potential sustainable expansion. This planning would be an alternative means of advancing the agricultural frontier, as opposed to the deforestation previously practiced. A way to accomplish a sustainable pattern of agricultural development could be by the identification of suitable areas to support the expansion without further loss of forestlands. Pasture is a type of land use that occupies large areas in Brazil, and pastures are considered strategic resources for the effectiveness of the proposed expansion, given that they represent areas that have already been deforested and offer some type of existing infrastructure. In addition, from the current biophysical potential production - pasture based beef cattle - may be underused. The goal of this dissertation is to develop a spatial allocation model based on a multicriteria decision making and geographic information systems (GIS) using land suitability analysis to support decision makers with geospatial information about where potential areas for sugarcane and soybean expansion are located in Brazil. The multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) consists of physical land suitability, infrastructure and socioeconomic data integration to identify suitable pasturelands for crop allocation. To enhance the reliability of the model, a team of specialists in the agricultural crops was selected to establish the criteria priorities in the model for the analysis process. The combination of their judgments gives an overall priority that feeds the multicriteria model. \"What if\" scenarios were also built to show how changes in the criteria priority weights would modify the spatial distribution of suitability classes in relation to the main model. The results yield maps that represent the distribution of suitability classes for sugarcane and soybean expansion. Pasturelands become more or less suitable for sugarcane or soybean allocation according to shifts in the influence of each criterion in the model. The designed models show results that may assist policymakers with geospatial information about priority areas where investments and efforts should be directed for sustainable agricultural expansion in Brazil.
A história do avanço da fronteira agrícola no Brasil tem sido intrinsecamente relacionada ao desmatamento. Embora perdas ambientais sejam, por vezes, inevitáveis no contexto de uma expansão agrícola, elas devem ser reduzidas sempre que possível. Tentando não seguir um padrão de desenvolvimento feito à custa de desmatamentos, e pensando numa forma mais sustentável de expansão da agricultura, nós avaliamos nesse estudo a possibilidade de expansão agrícola, para produção de alimentos e de biocombustíveis, sem o comprometimento do ecossistema natural existente no país. O Brasil tem um grande potencial agrícola atribuído à significativa quantidade de solos aptos para agricultura com clima e topografia favoráveis. Para abastecer o mercado agrícola nacional e assumir uma posição de liderança global na exportação de alimentos e biocombustíveis, ações devem ser tomadas pelo Brasil para o planejamento desse potencial de expansão. Esse planejamento seria um modelo alternativo para o avanço da fronteira agrícola, oposto aos padrões de avanço anteriores diretamente relacionados ao desmatamento. Uma forma de conseguir um padrão de desenvolvimento sustentável poderia ser pela identificação de terras agrícolas aptas à essa expansão sem estimular maiores perdas de florestas. As pastagens ocupam grandes áreas no Brasil e são consideradas recursos estratégicos para a eficácia dessa expansão, uma vez que representam áreas que já foram desmatadas e oferecem algum tipo de infraestrutura. Dado o atual potencial biofísico de produção, estima-se que as áreas de pastagem destinadas à pecuária bovina podem estar sendo subutilizadas. O objetivo desse trabalho é desenvolver um modelo de alocação espacial fundamentado numa análise de decisão multicritério e SIG com base na aptidão agrícola das terras, de forma a fornecer informações geoespaciais estratégicas aos tomadores de decisão sobre a localização das áreas potenciais para a expansão da cana-de-açúcar e soja no Brasil. A análise de decisão multicritério (MCDA) consiste na integração de dados edafoclimáticos, de infraestrutura e socioeconômicos para a identificação das áreas de pastagens aptas para a alocação dessas culturas. Para aumentar a confiabilidade do modelo, uma equipe de especialistas em cana-deaçúcar e soja foi selecionada para julgar a prioridade das variáveis no processo de análise. A combinação dos julgamentos fornece uma prioridade geral das variáveis, as quais alimentam o modelo. \"E se\" cenários foram também elaborados para mostrar como as mudanças nos pesos dos critérios modificariam a distribuição espacial das classes de aptidão com relação ao modelo principal. Os resultados são exibidos através de mapas que representam a distribuição das classes de aptidão agrícola para a alocação dos cultivos da cana-de-açúcar e soja. As pastagens tornam-se tanto mais adequadas para a alocação da cana ou soja de acordo com as mudanças na influência de cada critério no modelo. Os modelos projetados mostram resultados favoráveis que podem ajudar os tomadores de decisão com informações geoespaciais que identificam áreas prioritárias onde investimentos e esforços deveriam ser direcionados para estimular a expansão agrícola sustentável no Brasil.

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a classificação resultante do emprego da Avaliação de Multicritérios, utilizando a técnica AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), em ambiente SIG, para o mapeamento de áreas suscetíveis à escorregamento no município de Angra dos Reis. O estudo exigiu duas imagens Landsat 7 TM, obtidas respectivamente em 14/08/2006 e 17/06/2005. O produto gerado será comparado com os dados já existentes disponibilizados pela Defesa Civil do município, servindo de auxílio às ações no processo de gestão territorial, dando suporte ao planejamento e execução de projetos ambientais e de engenharia e apoio a tomadas de decisões governamentais, evitando novos desastres como os ocorridos em 31/12/2009 e 01/01/2010.
The present work has like goal analyze the result classification of the use of the Advanced Evaluation, using the AHP tecniche (Analytic Hierarchy Process), at SIG ambience to map the susceptible slipping areas of Angra dos Reis City. The study demanded two Landsat 7 TM images, respectively took in 08/14/2006 and 06/17/2005. The produced result will be compared with the available information already given by the Defesa Civil oh the city, serving like aid to the process of land management actions, giving support on the planning and execution of environmental projects and help on taken governmental decisions, avoiding new disasters like the ones in 12/31/2009 and 01/01/2010.

Orientador: Max Henrique Machado Costa
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação
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Resumo: Long Term Evolution (LTE), um padrão desenvolvido pelo 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), é atualmente a principal tecnologia 4G, provendo convergência tecnológica para esta geração de sistemas de comunicação celular. As redes LTE prometem velocidades de transmissão de dados em torno de 100 Mbps no canal de descida. Para esta alta taxa de transferência de dados, é necessário otimizar o uso dos recursos de rede. A tecnologia LTE utiliza técnicas de agendamento para a alocação de recursos de rádio com base nas condições do canal de comunicação. Este trabalho apresenta um algoritmo customizável para agendamento de dados multi-usuário no canal de descida das redes LTE que pode priorizar diferentes tipos de serviços selecionados. O esquema de agendamento proposto é uma versão modificada do agendador Proportional Fairness, que usa a técnica Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Isto permite agregar critérios de desempenho para melhorar a alocação de recursos com base nas condições de tráfego gerais e um conjunto de prioridades de serviços predefinidos. A abordagem para essa customização é atribuir pesos para determinados parâmetros utilizados no processo de alocação de recursos, modificando assim a importância relativa desses parâmetros, criando uma hierarquia de critérios. É possível ainda adicionar critérios para diferentes tipos de dados através de matrizes de comparação. A matriz de comparação quantifica o julgamento do tomador de decisão no que se refere à importância relativa dos diferentes critérios. Assim, o agendador pode se tornar flexível e adaptável a diferentes cenários de tráfego. Exemplos são apresentados onde o tráfego de vídeo é priorizado
Abstract: Long Term Evolution (LTE), a standard developed by the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), is currently the 4G mainstream technology, providing technology convergence for this generation of cellular communication systems. LTE networks promise data transmission rates of 100 Mbps in the downlink channel. For this high throughput it needs to optimize the use of network resources. LTE uses scheduling techniques for radio resource allocation based on communication channel conditions. This paper presents a customizable algorithm for multi-user data scheduling in the LTE downlink channel that can prioritize selected types of services. The proposed scheduling scheme is a modified version of the proportional fairness scheduler that uses Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) techniques. This allows to aggregate performance criteria to improve resource allocation based on general traffic conditions and a set of predefined service priorities. The approach for this customization is to assign weights to certain parameters used in the resource allocation process, thus modifying the relative importance of these parameters and creating a hierarchy of criteria. It is possible to add criteria for different types of data through comparison matrices. A comparison matrix quantifies the judgement of the decision maker with respect to the relative importance of different criteria. Thus the scheduler can be made flexible and adaptive to different traffic scenarios. Examples are given where video traffic is prioritized
Doutorado
Telecomunicações e Telemática
Doutor em Engenharia Elétrica

The diploma thesis deals with multicriterial analysis in geographic information systems. Multricriterial decision making is applied in locality of Nový Lískovec and deals with problems connected with housing in panel block of flats located in this locality. The main aim of the thesis is use right method for multicriterial evaluation of this locality by the most important criteria for housing, graphical expression of these factors by GIS and assessment and evaluation the best variants resulting from specific values of criteria. In the thesis is subsequently addressed issue of GIS, multicriterial decision making, locality of Nový Lískovec, collection of input documents and process of spatial analysis. The thesis points out at the application GIS for estate agencies or others organizations providing housing offers and graphical displaying the best variants based on a many search-housing criteria.

This thesis was aimed at the development of a Geographical Information System (GIS) based model to support the Rwanda Land Use and Development Master Plan. Developing sustainable land management is the main task of this master plan. Stakeholder’s involvement was of key importance. Their demands should be analysed and visualised to support discussions and the decision-making process. Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a proven method for land-use planning purposes. However, most land-use planning applications focus on a specific theme, such as urban development. In addition, land-use planning is often limited to a relatively small area. This thesis focused at the development of a countrywide GIS model, containing all land-uses accommodated in three main land-use categories: urban, agriculture and conservation. The GIS model was largely based on the Land-Use Conflict Identification Strategy (LUCIS) model. Many of the goals, objectives, and subobjectives that described the earlier mentioned land-use categories were adopted from the original model. However, a significant number of them were dropped, and new were created to suit the Rwandan situation. Stakeholder’s involvement was realized by assigning weights to the goals and preference maps. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used as weighting method. ESRI’s ArcGIS ModelBuilder was used to give the model shape in the GIS. Firstly, suitability maps were created of all elements in the model. The suitability maps were then transformed into preference maps by weighting them. In the next step the preference maps were collapsed in three classes: low, medium and high preference. Finally, the preference maps of the three land-use categories were combined, in order to visualize conflict areas. Ortho photos proved to be useful when acting as reference for the suitability and preference maps. Despite a large number of missing datasets, the GIS model was executed to simplify the understanding. However, many of the obtained results were unreliable because of the incompleteness of datasets, and can therefore not be used for decision-making.  Unfortunately, due to the stage of the project it was not possible to obtain weights from the stakeholders, and should therefore be done when the time is right. Right Choice DSS, a very user-friendly decision support application, was proposed to use for calculating weights. To conclude, the developed GIS model integrated countrywide land-use suitability mapping and stakeholders’ wishes that can be used for discussions and decision making.

Orientador: Paulo Sergio Franco Barbosa
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo
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Resumo: O abastecimento de água é um fator de extrema importância para o bem estar da sociedade. Muitos sistemas de abastecimento de água vêm apresentando deficiências operacionais, seja pelo elevado incremento na demanda nos últimos anos ou pela falta de manutenção adequada. O aumento da freqüência de interrupções no fornecimento de água tem sido comum, gerando a insatisfação de seus usuários. Altos investimentos são necessários para a reabilitação dos sistemas de abastecimento de água existentes, visando assegurar níveis operacionais adequados, mas as empresas têm recursos financeiros limitados. Justifica-se, deste modo, o desenvolvimento de novas metodologias que visem a reabilitação destes sistemas buscando o funcionamento adequado dos mesmos, dentro de padrões técnicos satisfatórios com custos aceitáveis. Neste contexto, a metodologia proposta almeja estudar alternativas de reabilitação em sistemas existentes, tendo como suporte um simulador de redes de abastecimento (SPERTS). Para considerar os múltiplos aspectos na tomada de decisão sobre as possíveis soluções de reabilitação a adotar utiliza-se a análise multicriterial que então, fornece uma hierarquia das alternativas encontradas em cada caso
Abstract: Water supply is extremely important for the welfare state of society. Many water supply systems have presented operational deficiency due to high increase on the demand or lack of adequate maintenance. The increase of on frequency of the interruption on the water supply has been usual, thus not fulfilling customer expectations for the consumers. High investments are needed to rehabilitate the existing water supply systems aiming at ensuring adequate operational levels. This situation highlights the importance of the development of new methodologies aiming at the rehabilitation of these systems for an adequate operation, within satisfactory technical standard and acceptable costs. Thus, the proposed methodology aims to study rehabilitation alternatives in existing water systems, taking as support a water supply network simulator (SPERTS). In order to consider the multiple aspects on the decision making process about the possible rehabilitation solutions, a multcriterial analysis is used thus, providing an hierarchy of the alternatives found in each case
Doutorado
Recursos Hidricos
Doutor em Engenharia Civil

L'évaluation des bénéfices et des risques des médicaments joue un rôle central dans la protection de la santé publique. Cependant, et de l’avis général, il apparaît que cette évaluation nécessite d’être revisitée. En 2010, aucun examen n’avait encore été effectué pour déterminer si les méthodes disponibles pouvaient être appliquées à l’évaluation de la balance bénéfice-risque des médicaments dans le cadre réglementaire, et si oui à quel point elles seraient applicable. L’objectif de cette thèse a donc été d’identifier la ou les méthodes pouvant être théoriquement utilisées pour ce type d’évaluation, puis de les confronter à des cas concrets afin d’en déterminer leur applicabilité. Les résultats de l’évaluation des méthodes ont montrés que les méthodes les plus appropriées sont la méthode d’aide à la décision multicritère (MCDA) ainsi que ses variantes. Les résultats de l'application pratique de la méthode MCDA ont indiqué que cette méthode peut être utilisé dans les scénarios communs d'enregistrement en Europe. Cependant il convient de noter que cette méthode ne fournit ni une recette « prête à l'emploi » pour exécuter cette évaluation ni une réponse directe
The benefit-risk evaluation of new medicines plays a central role in safeguarding public health. Nevertheless, it seems that the benefit-risk evaluation calls for further improvement. In 2010, no review had been performed of how available benefit-risk assessment methods could be applied for a regulatory benefit-risk assessment and how feasible that would be when facing real-life cases. The objective of this thesis has thus been to identify method(s) that could be theoretically used for such an assessment, and then to confront it/them to real-life cases, in order to determine their applicability. The results of the methods evaluation showed that the most suitable methods for a regulatory benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products are the MCDA method and the MCDA based methods. The results of the practical application of the MCDA indicated that the method could be used for medicinal products registered through a common registration scenario in Europe. However it should be noted that this method provides neither a “ready-made” recipe to perform an assessment nor a direct answer

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No contexto de organizações humanas, o processo de avaliação de desempenho tem merecido a atenção de praticantes e pesquisadores, pois, pela avaliação de desempenho, a empresa pode identificar diferenciais que as ajudem a serem mais competitivas. Para tanto, o rápido desenvolvimento de produtos, integração de informações, tecnologias de comunicação avançadas, customização de produtos e coordenação de redes de suprimentos, vêm forçando as empresas à tomada de decisões mais rápidas. O uso de métodos qualitativos de apoio à decisão pode contribuir para reduzir riscos e gerenciar incertezas nesta tomada de decisão mais rápida. O objetivo deste trabalho foi apresentar um estudo de caso no qual foi desenvolvido e testado um método de análise das preferências dos gestores de operações logísticas empresariais internas. O resultado da aplicação do método foi comparado com o resultado de algumas decisões tomadas na empresa. A metodologia de pesquisa contou com um grupo focado, formado pelos gestores da logística in
The context of human organizations, researchers and professionals has considered a lot the process of performance evaluation, once it provides to the company to identify differentials which can help them to be more competitive. Therefore, the fast development of products, information integration, advanced communication technologies, customization of products and coordination of supply nets, is forcing the companies to take faster decisions. The use of qualitative method of support to the decision, may contribute to reduce risks and manage uncertainties in this faster decision taking. The objective of the present work was to present a case study in which was developed and tested an analysis method of the preferences of the internal entrepreneurial logistic operations managers. The result of the method’s application was compared to the result of some decisions taken in the company. The research methodology reckoned with a focus group formed by the company’s internal logistic managers, involving the supply, prod

One of the serious and growing potential problems in most large urban areas is the shortage of land for waste disposal. Although there are some efforts to reduce and recover the waste, disposal in landfills is still the most common method for waste destination. An inappropriate landfill site may have negative environmental, economic and ecological impacts. Therefore, it should be selected carefully by considering both regulations and constraints on other sources. In this study, candidate sites for an appropriate landfill area in the vicinity of Ankara are determined by using the integration of Geographic Information Systems and Multicriteria Decision Analysis. For this purpose, sixteen input map layers including topography, settlements (urban centers and villages), roads (Highway E90 and village roads), railways, airport, wetlands, infrastructures (pipelines and power lines), slope, geology, land use, floodplains, aquifers and surface water are prepared and two different MCDA methods (Simple Additive Weighting and Analytic Hierarchy Process) are implemented in GIS environment. Comparison of the maps produced by these two different methods shows that both methods yield conformable results. Field checks also confirm that the candidate sites agree well with the selected criteria.

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The decision may be defined as a result of a process of choice, given an identified problem or when the decision maker faces an opportunity of creation, optimization or improvement in an environment. Frequently, problems are preferentially stated and analyzed in a qualitative way, not in quantitative aspect. I.e., most decision making problems can be qualitatively described. Verbal Decision Analysis (VDA) Framework is a set of methods defined to support the decision making process by the verbal representation of problems. The ORCLASS System (Ordinal Classification) belongs to VDA Framework. It consists at classifying alternatives, which means the prescription of alternatives into particular classes or groups. However, there was still never been developed a software that reproduces its application. This work presents a tool developed as a support to the process of Verbal Decision Analysis, aiming at the processing of a complete result of System ORCLASS to the decision maker. The work intends to provide an evaluation of Project Management approaches applied in the Software Development and examine them toward to identify which are the most preferable ones, aided by the application of a hybrid model of decision making. The hybrid model aims at classifying alternatives using ORCLASS method, through the developed software, and ranking them using a Verbal Decision Analysis method (ZAPROS-IIIi). Afterward, Specific Practices (SP) of Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) level 2 were chosen, and approaches to attend the SP's were ranked from the most preferable to the least preferable ones, aiming to help enterprises which are not able to reach a complete CMMI qualification. Keywords: Decision Making, Verbal Decision Analysis, ORCLASS method, Project Management, ZAPROS method, Specific Practices, Capability Maturity Model Integration.
Uma decisão pode ser definida como o resulta de um processo de escolha, dado um determinado problema ou quando um decisor depara-se com uma oportunidade de criação, otimização ou melhoria dentro de um ambiente. Frequentemente, problemas são preferencialmente definidos e analisados de forma qualitative, não com aspecto quantitativo. Isto é, a maioria dos problemas para tomada de decisão podem ser descritos qualitativamente. O Framework de Análise Verbal de Decisão (AVD) é um conjunto de metodos definidos para dar suporte ao processo de tomada de decisão, através de uma representação verbal dos problemas. O sistema ORCLASS (Classificação Ordinal), pertence ao Framework de Análise Verbal de Decisão. Ele consiste em classificar alternativas, o que significa a divião de alternativas dentre determinadas classes ou grupos. No entanto, ainda não havia sido desenvolvida um software que reproduza sua aplicação. Este trabalho apresenta uma ferramenta desenvolvida para dar suporte ao processo de Análise Verbal de Decisão, com objetivo de processar um resultado completo do sistema ORCLASS para o decisor. O trabalho tem a intensão de fornecer uma avaliação das abordagens de Gerência de Projetos aplicadas nas empresas de desenvolvimento de software e analisá-las afim de identificar quais as mais preferíveis, auxiliadas pela aplicação de um modelo híbrido de tomada de decisão. O modelo híbrido classifica alternativas usando o método ORCLASS, através do software desenvolvido, e as ordena usando um método de Análise Verbal de Decisão de ordenação (ZAPROS-IIIi). Ao final, Práticas Específicas (PS) do Modelo Integrado de Maturidade de Capacidade (CMMI) nível 2 foram selecionados a serem aplicados em Empresas, e abordagens para atender às PSs foram ordenadas das mais preferíveis para as menos preferíveis, com objetivo de ajudar empresas que não teriam estrutura para atingir uma certificação completa de CMMI. Palavras-chave: Tomada de Decisão, Análise Verbal de Decisão, método ORCLASS, Gerência de Projetos, método ZAPROS, Práticas Específicas, Modelo Integrado de Maturidade de Capacidade.

For many decisions validation of their outcomes is invariably problematic to objectively assess. Therefore to aid analysis and validation of decision outcomes, approaches which provide improved traceability and more semantically meaningful measurements of the decision process are required. Hence, this research investigates traceability, transparency, interactivity and auditability to improve the decision making process. Approaches and evaluation measures are proposed to facilitate a richer decision making experience. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) seeks to determine the suitability of alternatives of a goal with respect to multiple criteria. A key component of prominent MCDA methods is the concept of pairwise comparison. For a set of elements, pairwise comparison enables an accurate and transparent extraction and codification of a decision maker’s preferences, though facilitating a separation of concerns. From a set of pairwise comparisons, a ranking of the elements under consideration can be calculated. There are scenarios when a set of pairwise comparisons undergo alteration, both for individual and multiple decision makers. A set of measures of compromise are proposed to quantify the alteration that a set of pairwise comparisons undergo in such scenarios. The measures seek to provide a decision maker with meaningful knowledge regarding how their views have altered. A set of pairwise comparisons may be inconsistent. When inconsistency is present it adversely affects a ranking of the elements derived from the comparisons. Moreover inconsistency within pairwise comparisons used for consideration of more than a handful of elements is almost inevitable. Existing approaches that seek to alter a set of comparisons to reduce inconsistency lack traceability, flexibility, and specific consideration of alteration to the judgments in a way that is meaningful to a decision maker. An approach to inconsistency reduction is proposed that seeks to address these issues. For many decisions the opinions of multiple decision makers are utilized, either to avail of their combined expertise or to incorporate conflicting views. Aggregation of multiple decision makers’ pairwise companions seek to combine the views of the group into a single representation of views. An approach to group aggregation of pairwise comparisons is proposed that models compromise between the decision makers, facilitates decision maker constraints, considers inconsistency reduction during aggregation and dynamically incorporates decision maker weights of importance. With internet access becoming widespread being able to garner the views of a large group of decision makers’ views has become feasible. An approach to the aggregation of a large group of decision makers’ preferences is proposed. The approach facilitates understanding regarding both the agreement and conflict within the group during calculation of an overall group consensus. A Multi-Objective Optimisation Decision Software (MOODS) prototype tool has been developed that implements both the new measures of compromise and the proposed approaches to inconsistency reduction and group aggregation.

A presente investigação insere-se no âmbito das políticas públicas de coesão ter-ritorial, abordando a decisão quanto ao melhor concelho do país para local de residên-cia. Com este estudo pretendemos realizar uma análise relativamente aos diferentes concelhos de Portugal à luz das vertentes do Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano, o acesso a cuidados de saúde, a estabelecimentos de ensino, bem como indicadores de desempenho económico. Procedeu-se a um enquadramento teórico relativamente à metodologia possível para utilização e à escolha do melhor método enquadrado na análise multicritérios. Da análise e tratamento de dados, constatámos que, de acordo com as nossas preferências, o melhor concelho do país para se viver será Lisboa, e através de uma aná-lise mais alargada, os melhores concelhos se situam maioritariamente nas zonas Centro e Área Metropolitana de Lisboa; What is the best county in Portugal to live in? A multi-criteria analysis Abstract: The present investigation is part of the public policies of territorial cohesion addressing the decision regarding the best municipality of Portugal as a place of residence, in accordance to our preferences. The purpose of this study was to decide regarding the different counties of Portugal in the light of the Human Development Index, access to health care, educational establishments, as well as indicators of economic performance. A theoretical framework was applied in relation to the possible methodology for use and the choice of the best method included in the multicriteria analysis. From analysis and processing of data, we found that the best county in Portugal to live is Lisbon, and trough a broader analysis, the best counties are located mostly in Central and Metropolitan Area of Lisbon.

A seleção de fornecedores é uma importante decisão na área de logística para obter menores custos e um melhor nível de serviço. Os modelos de seleção atualmente praticados nas empresas buscam estritamente minimizar custos, o que é bastante questionado por parte da literatura especializada. Este trabalho propõe um modelo de seleção de fornecedores de logística balizado em uma abordagem multicritério que busca a escolha ideal através da ótica do contratante. As suas principais contribuições são a adaptação do processo MCDA na formulação e resolução desta escolha, a análise crítica dos fatores que influem neste tipo de decisão (critérios, subcritérios e curvas de impacto) e a apresentação do modelo proposto que utiliza um software de apoio à decisão. O modelo foi aplicado com sucesso em dois estudos de caso reais e em ambos os casos contribuiu para um maior entendimento do problema, tornando o processo de negociação mais assertivo e racional.
Suppliers selection is a major alternative to obtain lower costs and a better level of service. The selection models currently practiced in the companies seeks strictly the minimization of costs, which is widely questioned by the literature. This paper proposes a model for supplier selection in logistics area using a multicriteria approach that finds the ideal choice from the perspective of the contractor. The main contributions are the adaptation of the MCDA process at formulating and solving this problem, the critical analysis of influence factors of this type of decision (criteria, sub-criteria and value function) and the proposed model that uses software to support the decision of contractor. The model was successfully applied in two real cases and in both has contributed to a better understanding of their problem by making the negotiation process more explicit and rational.

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CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
The research entitled "Application of multicriteria method in management decision making: a study on the maintenance of logistics equipment" is a study that proposes a matrix for decision making, considering all the criteria of importance, choosing among the alternatives, the most favorable to the current need. Its general objective is to propose a multicriteria analysis model, as an alternative to support in the management decision making, achieved by the following specific objectives: Define the qualitative and quantitative variables of the process; Express the importance of system variables; Propose the best alternative that meets the needs of the system; Demonstrate the tolerance / flexibility margins of the system and Validate the multicriteria analysis model. The theoretical support of the research was based on bibliographical research, documentary analysis and Focus group instrument, starting from the understanding and characterization of the problem, until reaching the modeling of the weighted matrix providing a numerical index of the criterion evaluation, validated through the action research, in a company of the Polo of Two Wheels, with the purpose of assisting in the process of revaluation of the system of maintenance of logistic equipment, whose purpose is to eliminate line stops due to the unavailability of logistic handling equipment. Regarding the results, it was identified that the expectation of the system could be met with 86% satisfaction of the criteria, as opposed to the one reached by the current operator with 44% attendance. In the first stage of the criterial evaluation, the most compromised proposal with the expected results was alternative C, with capacity to meet 66% of expectations. However, this service capacity is below the target of 86%. In the second stage, with the implementation of several actions to develop the supplier, the best alternative was presented by supplier A (the current operator) with 81%. The research demonstrated that the maximum reach is in the evaluation of the alternatives through Multicriteria Analysis, changing the course of the decision, previously taken with intuitive basis, where the decision maker realized that its limiting was the market, and, in developing the market , made it possible to double the capacity of the current operator
A pesquisa intitulada “Aplicação de método multicritério na tomada de decisões gerenciais: um estudo na manutenção de equipamentos logísticos” constitui-se em estudo que propõe uma matriz para tomada de decisão, considerando-se todos os critérios de importância, elegendo dentre as alternativas, a mais favorável à necessidade em curso. Seu objetivo geral é a propositura de um modelo de análise multicritério, como alternativa para suporte na tomada de decisões gerenciais, alcançado pelos seguintes objetivos específicos: Definir as variáveis quali-quantitativas do processo; Expressar a importância das variáveis do sistema; Propor a melhor alternativa que atenda às necessidades do sistema; Demonstrar as margens de tolerância/flexibilidade do sistema e Validar o modelo de análise multicritério. A sustentação teórica da pesquisa baseou-se na pesquisa bibliográfica, na análise documental e no instrumento Focus group, partindo-se do entendimento e caracterização do problema, até atingir a modelagem da matriz ponderada fornecedora de um índice numérico da avaliação criterial, validada através da pesquisa-ação, em empresa do Polo de Duas Rodas, com o objetivo de auxiliar no processo de reavaliação do sistema de manutenção de equipamentos logísticos, cuja finalidade é eliminar as paradas de linha por indisponibilidade de equipamento de movimentação logístico. No que tange aos resultados, identificou-se que a expectativa do sistema poderia ser atendida com 86% de satisfação dos critérios, contrapondo-se ao atingido pelo operador atual com atendimento de 44%. Na primeira etapa da avaliação criterial, a proposta mais comprometida com os resultados esperados era a alternativa C, com capacidade de atendimento de 66% das expectativas. Porém, essa capacidade de atendimento está abaixo da meta que é de 86%. Na segunda Etapa, com a implantação de diversas ações para desenvolver o fornecedor, a melhor alternativa foi apresentada pelo fornecedor A (o atual operador) com 81%. A pesquisa demonstrou como conclusão que o alcance máximo está na avaliação das alternativas através de Análise Multicritério, mudando-se o curso da decisão, antes tomada com base intuitiva, onde o decisor percebeu que seu limitante era o mercado, e, ao desenvolver o mercado, possibilitou dobrar a capacidade do operador atual.

Neste trabalho é estudado o problema do atendimento de prazos na execução de serviços. O objetivo da pesquisa é propor um método de planejamento de produção para uma empresa prestadora de serviços de construção que atua no setor de telecomunicações. Após a descrição e análise do processo da empresa, são identificados os principais aspectos que devem ser considerados para a elaboração de um método de programação de atividades adequado. Cinco métodos são propostos e testados através de simulação. A análise dos resultados revela que o método ATC - Apparent Tardiness Cost, desenvolvido por Vepsalainen e Morton (1987), é superior aos demais em relação ao principal objetivo considerado, a minimização dos atrasos ponderados.
This work approaches the problem of meeting due dates in the service industry. The objective of this research is to propose a production planning method for a company that is responsible for projecting and building telecommunication networks. After the description and analysis of the company´s process, the main aspects that must be considered for the development of a convenient scheduling method are identified. Five methods are proposed and tested through simulation. The ATC rule - Apparent Tardiness Cost, created by Vepsalainen and Morton (1987), shows the best results regarding the main objective considered, the minimization of weighted tardiness.

The thesis focuses on valuation in land use allocation, dealing with the problem of determining the optimal choice among alternatives in land planning. The aim of the thesis is double. In fact, on the one hand, the role of valuation in planning activities is investigated, in the light of sustainable development concept; on the other and, an original decision aiding methodology is proposed, which can be used by planners to select an optimal land use plan that balances the socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. The thesis is divided in two parts: the first part focuses on sustainability and planning concepts, deepening the role of valuation in sustainability assessment of land use plans; the second part shows the methodology proposed. The first part is made up by three chapters. The first chapter enters the concepts of sustainability and natural capital, and the debate on economic growth (expansionistic versus ecological paradigm). In the second chapter, the relationship between valuation and planning process, its development in the course of time, and the development of new valuation methods for sustainability assessment in planning are investigated. The most diffused approaches are illustrated: the cost-benefit approach, the multi-criteria evaluation, and the new "landscape approach". In the third chapter, methods for natural capital assessment are presented, from both economic and ecological point of view. For each one of these two approaches, the concept of value, valuation methods and applicability are analysed. The second part of the thesis presents a method that can be used by planners to select an optimal land use plan among alternatives. The method focuses on spatial dimension of economic activities and of ecosystems conservation. The model has a multicriteria structure, based on two objectives: economic efficiency and ecosystems conservation (that are contrasting elements of sustainable development). In the fourth chapter the framework of the model is illustrated, and its application in planning processes is explained. The fifth, and last, chapter presents the parameters used in the model to quantify the two objectives: Economic Index and Quality Index. The Economic Index measures the economic efficiency of a certain landascape structure (proposed by a land use plan), while the Quality Index quantify landscape structure ability to protect natural systems. These indexes are constructed referring to principles and instruments of specific disciplines: respectively, Regional Economy, which affects the relationship between land use and economic efficiency, and Landscape Ecology, which investigates the relationship between land use and ecosystems health. Conclusions summarize thesis contents and highlight difficulties and further research possibilities.

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A desertificação é um fenômeno de escala global caracterizado pela degradação das terras nas zonas áridas, semiáridas e subúmidas secas para o qual concorrem fatores de ordem ambiental, social, econômica e institucional. Definir um conjunto de ações para seu enfrentamento requer o conhecimento das complexas relações estabelecidas entre a sociedade e o meio ambiente de modo a identificar e monitorar as causas e consequências do processo. A modelagem dessa realidade permanece um desafio para pesquisadores em todo o mundo, especialmente no Brasil, em virtude da grande quantidade de aspectos a serem considerados para os quais nem sempre há informações confiáveis e disponíveis. Procurando reduzir essa lacuna, o presente estudo estruturou um sistema de avaliação e comparação espacial da desertificação para os 32 municípios das microrregiões geográficas do Seridó paraibano e potiguar a partir de um conjunto de 27 indicadores recomendados na literatura relacionada, organizados segundo o modelo conceitual DPSIR - força motriz, pressão, estado, impacto e resposta. Os indicadores, discretos ou continuamente distribuídos, foram calculados, normalizados, ajustados à relação direta ou inversa com a desertificação, ponderados por especialistas de diferentes áreas do conhecimento e organizados em planos de informação do tipo raster. Técnicas de análise de decisão multicritério incorporadas a um sistema de informações geográficas foram utilizadas para desenvolver índices multicriteriais de desertificação, para cada categoria DPSIR, como instrumentos de avaliação das causas estruturais, causas diretas, susceptibilidade, consequências e respostas da sociedade para o problema. Os resultados apontaram que causas estruturais do processo, entre elas a concentração de terra, desigualdade social e cultura do consumo, mantêm 49,7% da área estudada em níveis de severidade moderado, forte ou muito forte de desertificação. Já as causas diretas, representadas pelo desmatamento e manejo inadequado da terra, afetam 19,7% da área com a mesma gravidade. Quanto à susceptibilidade ambiental, econômica e social, 83% da área está sujeita a iniciar ou agravar processos de desertificação em níveis de severidade moderado, forte e muito forte. Os impactos do processo, observados pela migração do campo para a cidade e pelo declínio da participação da agropecuária no PIB municipal, ocorrem com igual gravidade em 73,5% da área. Por fim, apenas 19,9% da área está relativamente preparada para enfrentar o problema através da organização do poder público e da sociedade civil em virtude dos níveis baixo e muito baixo de desertificação registrados. Numa avaliação global, considerando simultaneamente os 27 descritores do problema, observou-se que 59,7% da região está submetida a níveis moderado, forte ou muito forte de desertificação. Diante dos resultados alcançados, o estudo em questão sugere a promoção de ações governamentais e da sociedade civil para ampliar o acesso da população rural, nas áreas mais afetadas, à terra, à programas de geração ou transferência de renda, à educação básica universalizada, à assistência técnica agroecológica, à programas de recomposição da vegetação nativa, à serviços de proteção social dos contingentes que migram para as cidades, entre outras iniciativas, visando o enfrentamento do processo de desertificação e mitigação de suas consequências.
Desertification is a global phenomenon characterized by the degradation of land in the arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas for which environmental, social, economic and institutional factors compete. Define a set of actions to address it requires knowledge of the complex relationships established between society and the environment to identify and monitor the causes and consequences of the process. The modeling of this reality remains a challenge for researchers worldwide, especially in Brazil, due to the large number of aspects to be considered for which there is not always reliable and available information. To reduce this gap, this study structured a system of evaluation and spatial comparison of desertification for the 32 municipalities of Seridó geographical microregions in Paraíba and Rio Grande do Norte from a set of 27 indicators recommended in the related literature, organized according to the conceptual model DPSIR - forces, pressures, state, impacts, and responses. The indicators, either discrete or continuously distributed, were calculated, normalized, adjusted for the direct or inverse relationship with desertification, weighted by experts from different areas of knowledge and organized into raster type information plans. Multicriteria decision analysis techniques incorporated into a geographic information system were used to develop multicriteria desertification indexes for each DPSIR category as instruments for assessing the structural causes, direct causes, susceptibility, consequences and society’s responses to the problem. The results pointed out that the structural causes of the process, including land concentration, social inequality and consumption culture, hold 49.7% of the area in a moderate, strong or very strong level of desertification. Direct causes, represented by deforestation and inadequate land management, affect 19.7% of the area in the same way. Regarding environmental, economic and social susceptibility, 83% of the area is subject to initiate or aggravate desertification processes at moderate, strong and very strong levels. The impacts of the process, observed by migration from the countryside to the city and by the decline of agriculture and livestock’s contribution to local GDP, occur equally in 73.5% of the area. Finally, only 19.9% of the area is relatively prepared to tackle the problem through the organization of government and civil society. In an overall assessment, 59.7% of the region is subjected to moderate, strong or very strong levels of desertification, considering all the 27 descriptors of the problem. Most of the region, according to the study, demand actions of governments and society to expand rural population access to land, income generation or transfer programs, universal basic education, agroecological technical assistance, native vegetation recovery programs, social protection services for the contingents that migrate to the cities, among other initiatives, aiming to confront the desertification process and mitigate its consequences.

Soient D (les données) et M (les modules) deux ensemble de relations binaires sur un ensemble fini d'objets X. le but de cette thèse est l'étude, d'un point de vue axiomatiques, des (D,M)-procédures (ou multiprocédures) c'est à dire des applications qui à tout sous-ensemble fini de D associent un (ou plusieurs) élément de M. La première partie contient la caractérisation axiomatique des procédures et multiprocédures qui ne dépendent que des matrices de préférences ainsi que la caractérisation de ces matrices pour différents ensemble de données. La seconde partie est une étude d'une classe de multiprocédures qui généralisent la notion de fonction de choix. Enfin, dans la troisème partie, sont développées les notions de procédures et de multiprocédures prudentes ainsi que les variantes séquentielles de la procédure de Borda.

Master´s thesis deals with the evaluation of the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed flood protection measures in the affected area between the low Nové Mlýny reservoir and Pohansko weir at the Dyje river. The evaluation was done using the multicriteria decision analysis. The analysis was based on hydraulic calculations using 2D hydrodynamic model.

Orientadores: Bruno Coraucci Filho, Antonio Carlos Zuffo
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo
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Resumo: Baseado em projetos de estações de tratamento de esgotos implantados e a implantar, foi realizado uma pesquisa de custos de implantação de 8 modalidades, tendo os valores tratados na forma de custos unitários por capacidade de tratamento, em termos de "R$/m3.d-1 de capacidade". Foram compostos valores unitários de custos de operação e manutenção dos sistemas pesquisados em termos de "R$/m3 tratado". Além dos custos unitários, foram pesquisados critérios utilizados para o auxílio à tomada de decisão, para uma determinada comunidade, e aplicados em um estudo de caso para o município de Restinga-SP. Utilizou-se três métodos de auxílio à tomada de decisão, o MAUT, o CP e o CGT, com 20 alternativas, sendo 4 delas considerando-se a adaptação do sistema existente, e aplicados 94 questionários para valoração dos critérios por atores envolvidos na tomada de decisão. Os resultados indicaram que o custo unitário de implantação é reduzido na medida em que se eleva a capacidade do sistema. Para os custos operacionais em termos percentuais, concluiu-se entre outras, que a energia elétrica e a remoção e destinação de lodo são bastante significativos. Os métodos muticriteriais aplicados apresentaram resultados semelhantes apenas para a opinião do representante da Prefeitura Municipal, e para os demais ocorreram variações entre as 1ª e 2ª ordem de preferência. As alternativas de melhor compromisso entre os opinantes corresponderam à conversão da lagoa anaeróbia existente em aerada facultativa e implantação de terceira lagoa facultativa em área ao lado da ETE existente, implantação de lagoa facultativa seguida de lagoa de maturação, e implantação de lagoa aerada seguida de lagoa de decantação (aerada de mistura completa)
Abstract: Based on existing and new sewage treatment plant projects, a research on the implementation costs of 8 sewage treatment modes was executed resulting in unit costs per treatment capacity, in terms of "R$ / m3. d-1 of capacity." Unit values were composed of operating and maintenance costs of the surveyed systems, in terms of "R$ / m3 treated". In addition to unit costs, criteria that can be taken into account to support decision making for a specific community were researched and applied on a case study for the city of Restinga-SP. Three decision making support systems were used, MAUT, CP and CGT, with 20 alternatives, 4 of them considering the adaptation of the existing system, and the undertaking of 94 questionnaires for the valuation of the criteria by actors involved in the decision making process. The results indicated that the unit cost of implementation is reduced as the system capacity is enhanced. In regard to the operating costs it was possible to observe that the electricity and the removal and disposal of sludge were quite significant. The multicriteria methods presented similar results only in the opinion of the municipal representatives, in the other cases a difference was noted between the 1st and 2nd order of preference. The alternatives of best compromise between personal opinions corresponded to the conversion of the existing anaerobic pond into an aerated facultative and third facultative pond using an area next to the existing WWTP, implementation of facultative pond followed by maturation pond, and aerated pond (complete mix aerated) with decantation pond
Doutorado
Saneamento e Ambiente
Doutor em Engenharia Civil

Orientador: Mara de Andrade Marinho
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Agrícola
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Resumo: Erosão é um tema complexo que envolve aspectos físicos, ambientais, econômicos, sociais e políticos. Nos últimos 100 anos de historia, o principal enfoque da pesquisa em erosão esteve centrado principalmente nos aspectos físicos e só mais recentemente o foco se ampliou, incluindo os aspectos ambientais, econômicos e sociais. Partindo do pressuposto de que é possível o uso conjugado de métodos de consulta Ad-Hoc e de Análise Multicriterial, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo geral empregar essa abordagem no desenvolvimento de uma proposição metodológica para avaliação da suscetibilidade dos solos à erosão. Um objetivo específico foi utilizar dados de rotina de perfis de solos disponíveis nos relatórios dos levantamentos pedológicos. Para desenvolvimento de função classificatória da suscetibilidade à erosão, foram aplicados os métodos multicriteriais referidos por ELECTRE II, CP e CGT, considerando 4 cenários de pesos: media geométrica, máximo, mínimo e moda. Para desenvolvimento de função agregativa e de um indicador de suscetibilidade à erosão (Ise), foi utilizado o método MAVT via ajustes de funções de valores, que foram aplicadas aos dados secundários de solos. Os resultados da aplicação dos métodos ELECTRE II, CP e CGT foram convergentes, com uma correlação média de 0,854, destacando-se a ordem dos NEOSSOLOS (maior suscetibilidade) e a dos ORGANOSSOLOS (menor suscetibilidade). O indicador de suscetibilidade à erosão qualificou um PLINTOSSOLO PETRICO como sendo o mais suscetível (Ise= 57,4%) e um ORGANOSSOLO HAPLICO como sendo o menos suscetível à erosão (Ise= 34,5%). Conclui-se que a metodologia desenvolvida permitiu avaliar a suscetibilidade do solo à erosão sob diferentes aspectos (classificador e indicador de suscetibilidade) e níveis de generalização taxonômica, com uso de dados secundários
Abstract: Erosion is a complex theme which involves physical, environmental, social, and political aspects. For the last 100 years, the central goal of the research in this area was the physical aspects of soil erosion, and only more recently this focus has been distended to include the environmental, economical and social aspects. From the assumption that is possible to combine Ad-Hoc methods with Multicriterial Analysis, this work intended to employ that approach to develop a methodology for evaluating the soil susceptibility to erosion. A specific purpose was to use legacy data available on soil surveys reports. To develop a classificatory function of the soil susceptibility to erosion, the ELECTRE II, CP e CGT multicriterials methods were applied considering four scenarios: geometrical average, maximum, minimum, and mode. To develop an aggregative function and an indicator of soil erosion susceptibility (Ise), it was employed the MAVT method via adjusting values functions, which were applied to the legacy soils data. The results acquired from the application of the ELECTRE II, CP and CGT methods were convergent, with an average correlation of 0,854, stressing NEOSSOLOS (major susceptibility) and ORGANOSSOLOS (minor susceptibility). The indicator of soil erosion susceptibility qualified a PLINTOSSOLO PETRICO as being the most susceptible (Ise= 57,4%) and an ORGANOSSOLO HAPLICO as being the least susceptible (Ise= 34,5%). In conclusion, the developed methodology allowed to evaluate soil susceptibility to erosion in relation to different aspects (classificatory and susceptibility indicator) and levels of taxonomic generalization, with use of legacy data
Doutorado
Agua e Solo
Doutor em Engenharia Agrícola

Orientador: Maria Lucia Galves
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo
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Resumo: As cidades necessitam de sistemas de transporte eficientes, tanto para a movimentação de bens quanto de pessoas e para a realização das atividades fundamentais. O transporte caracteriza-se, portanto, como uma das atividades principais para o atendimento das necessidades de crescimento dos centros urbanos. Uma das opções adotadas para o transporte público urbano é o sistema BRT (Bus Rapid Transit), que consegue atender a necessidades de transporte com baixo custo de implantação, provocando impactos positivos em sua área de influência. Diante disso, sistemas BRT foram implantados em muitas cidades no mundo, o que torna a avaliação de desempenho deste modo de transporte uma necessidade atual e de grande importância para o desenvolvimento adequado dos centros urbanos. O objetivo do presente trabalho é o de avaliar o desempenho do sistema BRT da cidade de Lima, no Peru, especificamente Corredor Segregado de Alta Capacidade (COSAC I). Para tanto, foi adotada a metodologia de auxílio multicritério à decisão, que leva em conta tanto as variáveis quantitativas como as qualitativas na avaliação. Esta metodologia foi aplicada de forma abrangente, considerando não apenas os interesses do usuário, mas também os impactos que esse sistema provoca no meio urbano. Os resultados obtidos possibilitaram conhecer os pontos de vista e as necessidades dos atores, assim como o desempenho geral do sistema e o desempenho local para cada atributo
Abstract: Cities need efficient transport systems, both for the movement of goods and people as to the realization of the fundamental activities. Therefore transport is characterized as one of the main activities to meet the growing needs of urban centers. One of the options adopted for urban public transport is the BRT (Bus Rapid Transit), which can meet the transportation needs with low cost of deployment, causing positive impacts in its area of influence. Therefore, BRT systems have been deployed in many cities in the world, which makes the performance evaluation of the transport mode a current need and of great importance for the proper development of urban centers. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the BRT system of the city of Lima, Peru, specifically the Segregated Corridor of High Capacity (COSAC I). For this purpose, the methodology adopted was multicriteria decision aid, which takes into account both qualitative and quantitative variables in evaluating. This methodology was applied comprehensively, considering not only the user's interests, but also the impact that this system causes the urban environment. The results enabled us to know the views and needs of stakeholders, and the general performance of the system and the local performance for each attribute
Mestrado
Transportes
Mestre em Engenharia Civil